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Speaker 1: taking control of your personal data today. Trust me, I'm
Speaker 1: constantly working on this for years myself, and here's an
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Speaker 1: as well. Joining me now is Suzan Conpour. She is
Speaker 1: a veteran journalist co host of a podcast on global affairs.
Speaker 1: She's worked at NBC. Although we are paths only briefly,
Speaker 1: I think crossed back in her early days in NBC.
Speaker 1: She's been around the world. I just recently spent a
Speaker 1: lot of time with her, and I think this context matters.
Speaker 1: In December at a media conference, and I think I
Speaker 1: had told told you guys, some of you that may
Speaker 1: remember it was an Abu Dhabi for a large media
Speaker 1: conference really very industry focused, as much of tactical parts
Speaker 1: of the of the media world as much as content
Speaker 1: parts of the media world. For instance, there was a
Speaker 1: big gamer section to this to this conference. But I
Speaker 1: had the pleasure of being of having dinner with Susan
Speaker 1: and her husband and a bunch of other journalists and
Speaker 1: we had a fascinating conversation about Iran and about And
Speaker 1: this was in December. Abu Dhabi's got a big diaspora
Speaker 1: of Averaranians and it was in you know, I had
Speaker 1: basically was peppering Susan with all these questions. So I
Speaker 1: hear this, and I hear this, and it was like, boy,
Speaker 1: is this regime gonna fall? I mean, how bad is
Speaker 1: things in Tehran? And there was this feeling it could
Speaker 1: be five months, but it may still be five years.
Speaker 1: All of this before any thought that we were going
Speaker 1: to see what we're seeing in the moment now, and
Speaker 1: so I couldn't think of a better time to try
Speaker 1: to catch up with Suzan than right now. Suzan, welcome to.
Speaker 2: The tod tast Thank you, thanks for having me. Todd.
Speaker 2: I mean, it kind of feels like yesterday.
Speaker 1: But well it does. We just sort of connect and
Speaker 1: somebody's connected and we've been staying in touch since. And yet,
Speaker 1: my god, that was like a whole lifetime ago too,
Speaker 1: and it's only been literally, I think, four months, so
Speaker 1: that's we met Bobby.
Speaker 2: That was December eighth, that day. So so my wedding,
Speaker 2: my first wedding anniversaries are dragged. My husband too, Yes,
Speaker 2: she did.
Speaker 1: Well, he was at your conference.
Speaker 2: You know, when my company values IPO is at a
Speaker 2: billion dollars somewhere down the line, it'll be a good
Speaker 2: story to tell.
Speaker 1: That's right. You know, on our first anniversary we were
Speaker 1: able to you know, yadayada YadA.
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, exactly. But a couple of weeks after that
Speaker 2: was when everything really kicked off over the holidays, and
Speaker 2: there wasn't a whole lot of media coverage on the
Speaker 2: protests that happened in Iran because of the currency tanked.
Speaker 2: So the currency tanked and people just it was like
Speaker 2: that was what made them snap, that was what made
Speaker 2: people snap. They poured into the streets. It'said, you know
Speaker 2: what this government's got to go down with. You can't
Speaker 2: even govern correct, you can't even keep the lights on
Speaker 2: and can't keep the water going. And this is a
Speaker 2: oil rich country. And so that's why when we see
Speaker 2: things and I'm sure we'll get into all this, that's
Speaker 2: why we see reports about these leaders their real estate
Speaker 2: portfolios in Europe and London on billionaire's row being exposed.
Speaker 2: That's why it just hurts that much more.
Speaker 1: Right, because this is so personal and visceral and just
Speaker 1: sort of basics and survival for folks that actually live
Speaker 1: in Iran at the moment. Before we get into all
Speaker 1: the current events, you tell me your story of how
Speaker 1: you ended up in journalism, your family history in Persia.
Speaker 2: So I am literally a child of this conflict. My
Speaker 2: mother and father met in Alabama during the Aurun hostage
Speaker 2: crisis as students, and at the time, you know, on
Speaker 2: the evening newscast, there were images of American diplomats blindfolded
Speaker 2: and these insurgents holding Americans hostage. And so that was
Speaker 2: the image of Iranians at the time. And so when
Speaker 2: my father went to go and propose to my mother,
Speaker 2: my grandfather Sicilian American came to the US on Ellis
Speaker 2: Island chased them off the lawn with a firearm because
Speaker 2: Granians were kind of seen as terrorists in many parts
Speaker 2: of the country, particularly at Alabama. And so, you know,
Speaker 2: years later, when I was born, the Iran I Rock
Speaker 2: conflict was a war was raging, and I ultimately ended
Speaker 2: up raised by my Persian aunt, my dad's sister, and
Speaker 2: she taught me Farsi. But she was a war refugee,
Speaker 2: so she has a you know, she managed to make
Speaker 2: it to America through a pretty harrowing experience as a
Speaker 2: refugee through Europe to be able to make it here,
Speaker 2: you know. And then my first my first kind of
Speaker 2: memories of watching TV news was Desert Store. I grew
Speaker 2: up in Atlanta, and I grew up around lots of
Speaker 2: newspapers in the house, the Atlanta Journal Constitution. I remember
Speaker 2: reading about Kosovo in Time magazine for kids, and so
Speaker 2: I was always, for some reason, probably sort of epigetically
Speaker 2: drawn to conflict resolution, because I had literally made up
Speaker 2: of a conflict and it took years for read to
Speaker 2: really even kind of recognize that thread.
Speaker 1: And so then do you find yourself being a big
Speaker 1: media do you feel like you're always a mediate her?
Speaker 1: I mean, I you know, you know, I am. I'm
Speaker 1: a child of a mixed religious marriage, and for many
Speaker 1: of my father's side of the family, my mother was
Speaker 1: the first Jew many of them had ever met. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they weren't thrilled about it, you know, they didn't. She
Speaker 1: wasn't being chased off with a shotgun. So I'm not
Speaker 1: gunning too that. But she was always reminded that she
Speaker 1: was Jewish every time she went to that side of
Speaker 1: the family. They was sort of like that's all they
Speaker 1: saw in her head, you know, type of thing. And
Speaker 1: so I know what it made me do. I'm always like,
Speaker 1: I just want everybody get along. Yeah, I'm just curious.
Speaker 1: Is that does that? Does that feel like that be
Speaker 1: a description? You're always just trying to like, hey, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: let's have some peace, you know.
Speaker 3: And I think in a lot of ways, sort of
Speaker 3: being of a mixed background, you you can relate to
Speaker 3: different people, and so you end up automatically being that
Speaker 3: person and kind of being the convener and being the
Speaker 3: diplomatic kind of you.
Speaker 1: Can be a chameleon to people or a test whatever
Speaker 1: you want to call it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4: I mean.
Speaker 2: So years later, after I left NBCi, I was at
Speaker 2: the BBC for most of my career, for almost twelve years,
Speaker 2: and I was covering the State Department, so I would
Speaker 2: travel with the Secretary of State and the around nuclear
Speaker 2: negotiations sort was sort of my breakthrough story. And I
Speaker 2: remember when the nuclear deal was reached, which obviously it
Speaker 2: ended up being a controversial deal. Many people weren't happy
Speaker 2: about it. A lot of the elements of what people
Speaker 2: weren't happy about now is clear why. But I did
Speaker 2: a story on the women of the Iroun deal, which
Speaker 2: sort of ended up. I didn't realize it was at
Speaker 2: the time becoming now the company that I'm building and running.
Speaker 2: But at the time I did a story about the
Speaker 2: women of the around deal, and I interviewed Frederica Mugerini,
Speaker 2: who was the Italian representative, and we were before we
Speaker 2: were before we did the interview. We were chatting about
Speaker 2: my background and she said, wow, you know, like you've
Speaker 2: got the Italian, you've got the Iranian, you've got the American.
Speaker 2: You work for the Brits, Like you should have been
Speaker 2: in there negotiating.
Speaker 1: With right, you should have been part of the group.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's true, you know, you kind of there's
Speaker 4: a lot of cultural nuances in global affairs and diploasi
Speaker 4: and current events, which is why sometimes I worry what
Speaker 4: I'm looking at who is advising the Trump.
Speaker 2: Administration right now, because I think how the Iranians think
Speaker 2: and operate is they play the long game. It's an
Speaker 2: ancient civilization and it show.
Speaker 1: I mean, and you know the famous line from the Taliban,
Speaker 1: you've got the watches, We've got the time. I think
Speaker 1: there's a similar mindset perhaps with this regime, right.
Speaker 2: Yes, and you know, they there's been so much criticism
Speaker 2: of the media from the diaspora, the Iranian diaspora. People
Speaker 2: are particularly upset at Fred for the CNN reporter who
Speaker 2: red plate and reporter who went in. Of course, it's
Speaker 2: I believe it's very important to be on the ground. Well,
Speaker 2: at some point you do kind of have to make
Speaker 2: a call of whether you're going to keep doing it,
Speaker 2: because whether you're going to keep sort of signing up
Speaker 2: to the rules.
Speaker 1: But look, it's a tough decision. Look as you know
Speaker 1: Alia Rusi, you know, who's a dual citizen, our former
Speaker 1: colleague at NBC, the Tayran Bureauchi from you know, there
Speaker 1: were all sorts of you know, I mean, his mother
Speaker 1: lives in Tehran. You know, his mother you know, and
Speaker 1: there was always concern that the regime could threaten her
Speaker 1: and whether we were always we had to be mindful,
Speaker 1: you know, when we put them on air, because everybody's
Speaker 1: got a family.
Speaker 2: But they, the Iranians, use the democratic tools that we have,
Speaker 2: the freedoms that we have to their advantage. They're quite
Speaker 2: clever in that regards. And you know, even though I
Speaker 2: know better, you know, like I know better, when they're
Speaker 2: so good at their craft that it's almost like they
Speaker 2: put you under a spell and you have to count yourself.
Speaker 2: And an Iranian will recognize that, but an American will
Speaker 2: even no matter how experienced you might be with them,
Speaker 2: because it's psychological manipulation.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about sort of this. I'm look, we're using
Speaker 1: an artificial timeline here. When we first started, we were
Speaker 1: having this conversation, and in fact, I think I even said,
Speaker 1: I said, you know, I want to have you on
Speaker 1: because I think people I think the underrated story of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six could be the downfall of this regime.
Speaker 1: I look, there's a lot of things in the Bingo card,
Speaker 1: the United States aggressively pursuing a preemptive strike against Iran.
Speaker 1: I just never foresaw. And I know that there's the
Speaker 1: unpredictability of Trump, but there's always been a reason why
Speaker 1: previous American presidents have stopped Israel from doing this and
Speaker 1: have not done this for because of how how unmanageable
Speaker 1: the potential fallout could be. But I think what we
Speaker 1: were discussing is, hey, you know, can this regime hold
Speaker 1: If you can't even get hotable water, you know, drinking
Speaker 1: water in Tehran? If you can't you don't have water,
Speaker 1: how are they going to govern? And so then let's
Speaker 1: go to the it's the revolution, the currency drafts, we
Speaker 1: have the protests, what happens, what's happening in country at
Speaker 1: the time, What are you hearing at the time, and
Speaker 1: what are you thinking at the time? Is this How
Speaker 1: vulnerable did the regime seem? And was there a lot
Speaker 1: of chatter, Hey, with a little bit of help, maybe
Speaker 1: from the United States or others, maybe this can happen.
Speaker 2: So the June twelve Day war was a pivotal moment.
Speaker 2: And even people who had worked for their regime who
Speaker 2: had left and are now in the private sector and
Speaker 2: that kind of had started to make them think differently
Speaker 2: about the regime were messaging me and saying why didn't
Speaker 2: Trump finish the job? And so, which I frankly was surprised. Naturally,
Speaker 2: when you're being bombed, you're going through a whole range
Speaker 2: of emotions, and most of those emotions are I hate
Speaker 2: these people who are bombing me because obviously, and so
Speaker 2: when when the bomb stopped, the kind of why didn't
Speaker 2: he finish the job? Why isn't he finishing the job
Speaker 2: was really stuck with me. And that being said, now
Speaker 2: that the scale of kind of destruction we're seeing has
Speaker 2: really settled in, we keep hearing that, oh, you know,
Speaker 2: if they just let it be, the regime would have
Speaker 2: fallen on its own.
Speaker 1: Do you believe that the problem?
Speaker 2: I don't, mainly because they are masters at holding on
Speaker 2: and will stop it nothing to hold on, and we
Speaker 2: are seeing that mh in the fact that they are
Speaker 2: literally shooting themselves in the foot by bombarding Dubai. That's
Speaker 2: where all their money is. And so we were living
Speaker 2: in Dubai. We never thought not that, we never thought
Speaker 2: it was always a risk. I mean, you know, frankly, ultimately,
Speaker 2: you know in the Middle East, like eventually it was
Speaker 2: going to blow up. And wait, sorry, today, Lucy, no
Speaker 2: we're here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, my photo rank right and interrupture. I know all
Speaker 1: of our devices have to be connected. You know that
Speaker 1: don't have to be connected Apple, Thank you.
Speaker 2: I know, so we let me just go back. No,
Speaker 2: I did not believe that they would be able to
Speaker 2: fall on their own, because they've they'll do anything to
Speaker 2: hang on to power. And we saw that in January,
Speaker 2: and we've seen that in other points in history before.
Speaker 2: You know, the massacre in January is not the first time.
Speaker 2: It's just we now live in an age where dictators
Speaker 2: can't hide. They can't hide. We watch everything very intimately
Speaker 2: on our phones on Instagram.
Speaker 1: Right, So, what's life right now? Like, what are you
Speaker 1: hearing right now? Are people just living, you know, just
Speaker 1: staying in shelter, staying in place. Are they trying to
Speaker 1: leave if you have means to do that, and if so,
Speaker 1: how are they leaving? Take me through some of the
Speaker 1: some of the stories you're hearing.
Speaker 2: I mean, to me, Frank, it's quite nerve wracking to
Speaker 2: have people trying to leave right now. I mean, I
Speaker 2: literally have a friend who I'm just checking up to
Speaker 2: see if they've crossed over. The people are crossing over
Speaker 2: the land borders when they can. But it's dangerous because
Speaker 2: not only is dangerous because of the bombs, but it's
Speaker 2: dangerous because there's checkpoints everywhere and the regime is extremely paranoid,
Speaker 2: and so they're just arresting people and they're not they
Speaker 2: kind of you know, it's a bit of a it's
Speaker 2: a tricky one because if you're if you're trying to leave,
Speaker 2: you know, you're well, why are you leaving now? And
Speaker 2: at the same time people are trying to find moles
Speaker 2: and spies. The regime is trying to find moles and spies,
Speaker 2: and so it's just it's just dangerous.
Speaker 1: To automatically a suspect as far as they're concerned.
Speaker 2: But even just being out in the streets of checking
Speaker 2: people's phones, like it's just a terrifying existence. And so
Speaker 2: you're just in your house and mind you remember it's
Speaker 2: Persian New Year, So Persian New Year starts on the
Speaker 2: first day of the years on Friday. Last night, there's
Speaker 2: a tradition called Charsha Ambassuri which you jump over fire
Speaker 2: and sort of leave the ailments of the year of
Speaker 2: the past and you kind of take the vibrance of the.
Speaker 1: Fire just to timestamp this because this is going to
Speaker 1: happen after the New Year. We're going to air this
Speaker 1: literally Monday after the New Year, so we're speaking before Friday,
Speaker 1: but people will be hearing this after the New Year ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so New Year goes on for thirteen days of celebration.
Speaker 1: And not going to be a celebration this year.
Speaker 2: No, But interesting enough, we are seeing videos coming out
Speaker 2: of people who actually did go out and put little
Speaker 2: fires out and they were jumping out or jumping over
Speaker 2: the fires, which the security forces tried to shut down.
Speaker 2: But they do that every year because it's not an
Speaker 2: Islamic tradition. It's a pre Islamic tradition. It's from their
Speaker 2: Astrian era and it's just a Persian ronnie and tradition,
Speaker 2: and so they don't like that, so they try to
Speaker 2: killer their joy.
Speaker 1: And they would they do that anytime.
Speaker 2: A year, every year, every year, every year.
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Speaker 1: This is a sponsor. I absolutely am brace, so use
Speaker 1: that code. You're pretty convinced this regime can hang on?
Speaker 2: Why? Oh no, I don't. I mean, like, I'm not
Speaker 2: convinced that they can, that they will hang on. So
Speaker 2: they can hang on, I'm not convinced that they will
Speaker 2: hang on because ultimately, I mean, here's the thing. There's
Speaker 2: the Trump administration says that people need to rise up
Speaker 2: and take back their country, and yes they can, but
Speaker 2: you can't bring a knife to a gunfight. And the
Speaker 2: opposition is inside it be in prison. So I'm the
Speaker 2: executive producer of an animated short documentary, a film directed
Speaker 2: by a Hodda Soapani, an Iranian filmmaker, and this is
Speaker 2: the story of her friend Nedda, who was a woman
Speaker 2: life freedom activist and she was thrown in prison and
Speaker 2: the story is of a night where in prison was
Speaker 2: on fire and it was a strange evening because they
Speaker 2: could hear gunshots, they didn't really know what was going on,
Speaker 2: and it was a really harrowing evening. And then suddenly
Speaker 2: two days later they were all released and they were
Speaker 2: threatened to never talk about that night. So something happened,
Speaker 2: very likely a sort of attempted uprising from inside the prison.
Speaker 2: And so the way for the regime to not survive
Speaker 2: is quite frankly, for those people to be empowered. And
Speaker 2: in order for them to be empowered, they need to
Speaker 2: be busted out of prison and some sort of special operations,
Speaker 2: and they need to be armed. I mean, remember, this
Speaker 2: regime didn't come out of nowhere. There was a revolution
Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy nine, and so a counter revolution is
Speaker 2: very much a possibility.
Speaker 1: So I spoke with John Bolton a couple weeks ago,
Speaker 1: and his big criticism of what Trump's done is the
Speaker 1: lack of attempt even attempting to work with an opposition
Speaker 1: to organize, to help organize it. Frankly, you know a
Speaker 1: lot of this. You you have to plant these seeds
Speaker 1: before the military campaign begins and look for a variety
Speaker 1: of reasons, whether it's killing U. S. A, I D
Speaker 1: neutering the US Information Agency, right, all of our soft
Speaker 1: power tools got gutted. So so that was a missing piece.
Speaker 1: But this issue with the opposition, because it's this is
Speaker 1: you know, the other version of events you here, you
Speaker 1: know they're they're in prison or they're in hiding, right
Speaker 1: because they've been dispersed or they've been killed by by
Speaker 1: this regime. So it sounds like you think that, you know,
Speaker 1: if there was if there had been some pre war
Speaker 1: planning of okay, you know who are who are some
Speaker 1: of the key opposition leaders. Now it's look to give
Speaker 1: you my read from this, it's clear that after the
Speaker 1: experienced I'm had with Venezuela, he decided the easy way
Speaker 1: out is Hey, the big criticism of Iraq was the
Speaker 1: debathification process. So why don't we just keep the regime
Speaker 1: in place and just find a more client leader. We
Speaker 1: did it in Venezuela. Why can't we do it here?
Speaker 1: So they you know, that appears to be how they
Speaker 1: sort of set aside the idea of working with an opposition,
Speaker 1: of developing an opposition, of essentially freeing the opposition from
Speaker 1: from prison. Now that they're stuck in this is this
Speaker 1: the only play?
Speaker 2: Not necessarily, I mean, the fact of the matter is
Speaker 2: there are no great love this options. So that's much
Speaker 2: like many of our American elections. Yeah, because so the
Speaker 2: issue with John Bolton and some of his colleagues is
Speaker 2: that they have a particular opposition group in mind, and
Speaker 2: that is the Mujahadin, the MAK right, and nobody in
Speaker 2: around wants the Maak. Same with the diaspora. They are
Speaker 2: pretty much a radical group and they have deep pockets
Speaker 2: and pay lots of people to lobby for them. And
Speaker 2: so because there are the opposition groups that exist outside
Speaker 2: of the country, like MK and the monarchists have been
Speaker 2: have had these sort of aggressive, radical, sort of fringe supporters,
Speaker 2: I can actually understand why the White House would be
Speaker 2: hesitant to put their weight behind in any of these groups.
Speaker 1: Now it wasn't clearly any of them had any ties
Speaker 1: inside the country, right Hasn't that always been the big
Speaker 1: criticism of both the monarchists and the MKA.
Speaker 2: Exactly, And people I speak to inside so like you know,
Speaker 2: proper Iranians, born bred, fought through on the ground, they
Speaker 2: always say, our leader needs to be somebody who has
Speaker 2: been here and suffered with us, suffered through this, bought
Speaker 2: the regime with us. Now Paul Levy's name was being
Speaker 2: shouted in the streets in the sense that it was
Speaker 2: they were saying, Java Shaw, so long live the show.
Speaker 2: So it's like a invoking of this you know, pre
Speaker 2: Islamic Revolution era and nostalgia.
Speaker 1: What you're saying is it shouldn't be read as this
Speaker 1: guy who's claiming to be the Shaw, that somehow there's
Speaker 1: a popular support for him exactly.
Speaker 2: And to be fair to him, he has continuously said
Speaker 2: that I see myself as a transitional figure. I want to,
Speaker 2: you know, go in and facilitate free and fair elections
Speaker 2: that you know, people insider Iran decide who they want
Speaker 2: to be their candidates, and they decide who they want
Speaker 2: to be their leaders. And now he has made quite
Speaker 2: a few big moves in the past couple of days actually,
Speaker 2: and one of them is Shirin Ebadhi is kind of
Speaker 2: leading the Justice Council, and so he has created this
Speaker 2: sort of coalition of people who have who have real
Speaker 2: kind of experience and support on the ground, like Shirin
Speaker 2: Ebadi does have support on the ground. And in fact,
Speaker 2: I have to say The only reason we are here today,
Speaker 2: that we are actually talking about the end of the
Speaker 2: Islamic Republic as a reality is because of the women
Speaker 2: of Iran who paved and lay paved the way and
Speaker 2: laid the ground work. They're the only ones who have
Speaker 2: actually brought real change and have feeded the Islamic republican anyway,
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, when Massa Amoni was killed because
Speaker 2: of her stray hairs and mind you, you know, like
Speaker 2: in Iran as women, I mean, last time I was
Speaker 2: there was two thousand and seven. Your existence as a
Speaker 2: woman in Iran is rebellion and resistance. Every single woman,
Speaker 2: I mean, as long if you're not a husband a right.
Speaker 2: And what we were then finding is that when this
Speaker 2: uprising happened, when people poured into the streets, people were
Speaker 2: like Hijabi women were walking with the women without their
Speaker 2: hit job. Because it's about choice, It's about freedom of choice.
Speaker 2: I want to wear my hit job, but if my
Speaker 2: sister doesn't want to wear her hit job, she shouldn't
Speaker 2: have to. And what ended up happening is women stopped
Speaker 2: wearing the hit job. If they didn't feel like it,
Speaker 2: they just stopped wearing it. They said screw the law,
Speaker 2: shoot me, shoot me dead. And the Iranian regime ruled
Speaker 2: by fear. So once they lost control of the women,
Speaker 2: they lost power. They didn't have to change the law formally,
Speaker 2: the women changed it for them. And so you know,
Speaker 2: Pa Leve's made a really smart move by bringing shen
Speaker 2: a body kind of in the fold. But in terms
Speaker 2: of any sort of regime change, it would either be
Speaker 2: Pa Leve or it would be Trump wanting to pull
Speaker 2: a Venezuela. And the only person that that could, like
Speaker 2: the only This sounds weird. I've said it before on
Speaker 2: air and people have kind of come at me in
Speaker 2: the comments, but when you think about it, he is
Speaker 2: really the only option because he's sort of so sidelined
Speaker 2: and not taken seriously inside that the sort of US
Speaker 2: intelligence apparatus could work him to their advantage. And that's
Speaker 2: messued position. Chion.
Speaker 1: Well, you had said this to me, almost said he
Speaker 1: sees himself this way. You think, right, it's like he
Speaker 1: could be the gorbutt and you I think he used
Speaker 1: the line with me and I quoted you to a
Speaker 1: lot of people like, Hey, this this this Iranian president
Speaker 1: sort of like is not is being treated like a
Speaker 1: figurehead right by the by the regime more so than
Speaker 1: than we've seen with previous Iranian presidents, and that he's
Speaker 1: fashion You thought he was fashioning himself almost as a
Speaker 1: as the Gorbatrough transitional figure.
Speaker 2: And the reason why I thought that was because in
Speaker 2: that sort of last week of December, when the protests
Speaker 2: were really kickoff and the media hadn't really picked up
Speaker 2: yet because it was all the days. Frankly, he did
Speaker 2: an interview but it was like posted on the Supreme
Speaker 2: Leader's website and he effectively kind of cited with the protesters.
Speaker 2: That was what I picked up on. That was what
Speaker 2: caught my eye. And what was it last week March
Speaker 2: the weekend of March eighth, he came out and said,
Speaker 2: you know, we shouldn't have hit our neighbors. And then
Speaker 2: the IOGC turned around and hit Dubai again and said, no,
Speaker 2: messag Position is the one who made the mistakes. So
Speaker 2: you're seeing that split. So he's kind of trying to
Speaker 2: assert his he's trying to assert himself and the ERGS
Speaker 2: is like IOGC is like, yeah, no, that's not happening.
Speaker 1: So I mean you think that, you know, basically, you
Speaker 1: look around the room and if you, you know, for
Speaker 1: some reason the regime does fall and you need a
Speaker 1: transitional figure, he might actually be the best candidate.
Speaker 2: He's the only one. I wouldn't say he's the best.
Speaker 2: I think he's the only one.
Speaker 1: Well, that makes him the best, exactly. It's a contest
Speaker 1: of one.
Speaker 2: What I'm surprised nobody's talking about him, and I'm surprised
Speaker 2: about this, and like, where is he is? Javad Zariff,
Speaker 2: the former foreign minister, the regime's charmer in chief.
Speaker 1: Oh, him and John Carry seemed like we're, you know,
Speaker 1: long lost buddies every time they got together. Is he
Speaker 1: dead or alive? He's we assume he's alive, right, I
Speaker 1: assume he's alive.
Speaker 2: But he was. He was very much sidelined when the
Speaker 2: kind of hardline government came back in uh and they're
Speaker 2: ahead of that. There were lots of talks with him
Speaker 2: having presidential ambitions. Now I've I've met Zariff many times,
Speaker 2: been in touch with him many times, and he's very charming.
Speaker 1: I've spent some time very charming.
Speaker 2: Ya. Yes, well, he's very good at public diplomacy, right,
Speaker 2: he was really good at, you know, frankly using us
Speaker 2: to his advantage. I mean, they sold that nuclear deal.
Speaker 2: They sold it to the American public. It's a peace deal.
Speaker 2: It wasn't a piece of deal. It said lots of
Speaker 2: money to the proxies in the region that we are
Speaker 2: now seeing reaping the benefits of that deal. Like that
Speaker 2: is that's that's what's happen in here. But we haven't
Speaker 2: heard from him, and I'm surprised we haven't heard from him,
Speaker 2: and I feel like we should keep an eye out
Speaker 2: for him. But the thing about Posishkion is, I mean,
Speaker 2: mind you, so, Venezuela is a difficult one to kind
Speaker 2: of compare it to because I mean, this is this
Speaker 2: is an Islamic republic that literally exists to be at
Speaker 2: war with the US. They exist as a revolutionary state
Speaker 2: to fight and be a resisting force for Western imperialism
Speaker 2: led by America, and without America as an enemy, the
Speaker 2: Islamic Republic is no longer relevant. So if the war ends,
Speaker 2: what is the Islamic Republic? So like, if they declare
Speaker 2: peace with the US and say we're no longer at war,
Speaker 2: what is the Islamic Republic? In order for there to
Speaker 2: be real regime.
Speaker 1: Change, you can't imagine there's no deal, So this is
Speaker 1: you know, I'm trying to you know, I'm trying to
Speaker 1: put myself as best I can in Trump's shoes and
Speaker 1: understanding how he thinks and how he works, and he's
Speaker 1: going to want he I know he wants this. I
Speaker 1: mean he's all but signaled this publicly, barely. Like I
Speaker 1: joked that he's he'd be fun to play poker with
Speaker 1: because he tells you everything you need and he literally
Speaker 1: turns his cards the other way so you can see them.
Speaker 1: He wants to get out of this. He's desperate to
Speaker 1: get out of this. But it doesn't sound like there's
Speaker 1: a deal to be cut that can be trusted, right,
Speaker 1: because if the regime cuts a deal, what's that deal
Speaker 1: look like? Any deal that keeps the regime in place,
Speaker 1: that's a win for the regime and a loss for
Speaker 1: the United States, is it not?
Speaker 2: I mean, you the key word here is trust. How
Speaker 2: can we trust Obama made a deal in good faith
Speaker 2: with the Islamic Republic. I remember after this deal was reached,
Speaker 2: I was speaking to an official who was part of
Speaker 2: the negotiations, and he said, don't you think this will
Speaker 2: lead to reforms? Like they genuinely believed that this would
Speaker 2: lead to reforms. They genuinely believed they would release all
Speaker 2: of this sanctions money and it would go to the
Speaker 2: people and you know that they would make life better,
Speaker 2: and you know, I find it sweet. But it did though,
Speaker 2: to be fair, it did actually it did need to
Speaker 2: reform because it exposed the corruption of the government because
Speaker 2: they were like, hey, don't we can't blame the Americans
Speaker 2: anymore because they sent us all this money.
Speaker 1: Where is it now? I remember talking with somebody inside
Speaker 1: Obama world who was a bit more of a realist
Speaker 1: about Iran wasn't as and and was trying to make
Speaker 1: the case that Obama wasn't a real He didn't. This
Speaker 1: wasn't a that it wasn't blind faith here. But the
Speaker 1: argument that was made to me of like, look, you
Speaker 1: know why we have to do this deal in order
Speaker 1: to then have a rationale if we have to go militarily,
Speaker 1: we have to prove demo diplomacy failed. We have to
Speaker 1: prove that they couldn't keep their work. We have to prove,
Speaker 1: but we have to you have to give it, you know.
Speaker 1: That was the explanation, Like why are you doing this
Speaker 1: bad deal? I'm sorry. I think for a lot of
Speaker 1: us thought it was like, huh, okay, this this, this
Speaker 1: seems like they're getting a lot for very you know,
Speaker 1: for very little reforms in return. And that was the
Speaker 1: That was the spin I got, which I would count
Speaker 1: as realistic spin because it was from somebody who themselves
Speaker 1: was a skeptic of the deal and yet was charged
Speaker 1: with having to with havingue but believed that larger idea
Speaker 1: that hey, you have to you have to try this.
Speaker 1: You can't say you can't go to war and say
Speaker 1: we didn't because you almost have to prove that diplomacy
Speaker 1: isn't going to work. And yet here we are.
Speaker 2: So you know how Trump said that he spoke to
Speaker 2: a former president who said he wished he'd done it,
Speaker 2: who wish he wish he'd been able.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, the joke is that, remember he's technically
Speaker 1: a former president. Yes, he may exactly, he may have
Speaker 1: just been having a conversation in the mirror with himself
Speaker 1: forty five, you know, the forty fifth president was speaking
Speaker 1: with the forty seventh president. Issue.
Speaker 2: True, that's true. But Obama has said he wishes he'd
Speaker 2: done something when the two thousand and nine Green movement
Speaker 2: uprising happened, and many believe that he didn't do anything
Speaker 2: because he had an eye on a nuclear deal. So
Speaker 2: that was two thousand and nine. By twenty thirteen, the
Speaker 2: kind of secret talks were revealed that James Sullivan was doing,
Speaker 2: and then by twenty fifteen we had a nuclear deal.
Speaker 1: Look, I you know, I think you know that's you know,
Speaker 1: when you play these what if games, and I love
Speaker 1: to do them, it's sort of alternative histories and and
Speaker 1: you know, what if we had done this, and what
Speaker 1: if we had done that. I generally think though that
Speaker 1: the mindset of you better try to plum, you better
Speaker 1: exhaust diplomacy in the United States, I've always argued has
Speaker 1: to get caught, always exhausting diplomacy. When you were the
Speaker 1: biggest fish in the sea, or you're the big you
Speaker 1: know that, then you should you do it. You actually
Speaker 1: have the luxury to exhaust the diplomacy, not every entity.
Speaker 1: Does you know, they don't happen. Do you think security?
Speaker 2: Do you think to be fair to Trump? Then that
Speaker 2: he I mean, he's basically stuck with what was eventually
Speaker 2: going to have to happen. Anyway.
Speaker 1: Oh, I have been I have been a believer. I
Speaker 1: used to I was half joking. I'm like, you know,
Speaker 1: I said, you know, I Kamala Harris gets elected president,
Speaker 1: you know her first crisis is going to be when
Speaker 1: she has to bomb around And I say, has to,
Speaker 1: meaning like this, There's going to be a moment where
Speaker 1: Israel's going to test and it's like, well, Jesus, you
Speaker 1: can't have Israel do it by themselves. And and it
Speaker 1: was like, I think I always viewed it as inevitable
Speaker 1: that the next president was going to either voluntarily do
Speaker 1: this or get dragged into doing this. But either way,
Speaker 1: something was amiss. I think when we look back at
Speaker 1: mistakes Trump made, ripping up the nuclear deal was a mistake.
Speaker 1: Proving that they were failing at the nuclear deal would
Speaker 1: have been a better way to go about this, right,
Speaker 1: Like how they how they ended the deal. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying the deal was a good deal. How they how
Speaker 1: the deal was ended though, got lost America and the
Speaker 1: Westson high Ground.
Speaker 2: The problem now, though, is that there listen, there's a
Speaker 2: lot of room for improvement with President Trump, which is
Speaker 2: putting in politely. That being said, I worry, particularly from
Speaker 2: the perspective of the Iranian people, that the Western media,
Speaker 2: European media especially, it almost doesn't want Trump to succeed
Speaker 2: in this at the expense of the Iranian people, because there.
Speaker 1: Is some there's some blind anti Trump. I know exactly
Speaker 1: what you mean. There's some of this blind that's almost
Speaker 1: like there's and you do you do wonder It's like,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want Trump to fail. I think
Speaker 1: he's made some fatal mistakes, and I you know, our
Speaker 1: job is to point out the mistakes he's made. But
Speaker 1: I I don't think you're wrong. There's this they're they're
Speaker 1: almost sometimes some of the coverage, and You're right, particularly
Speaker 1: the European side comes across it like, you know, we
Speaker 1: got to prove you know, I hope he fails so
Speaker 1: we can prove we were right.
Speaker 2: Well in the as you know, warfare has many facets.
Speaker 2: Information warfare is a major part of that, and the
Speaker 2: Iranian regime is winning. I mean, I feel like I'm
Speaker 2: the one woman kind of fact mission back checking machine
Speaker 2: at this point where I'm having sources inside around message
Speaker 2: me and say I can't believe Trump said that Iranians
Speaker 2: are genetically inferior. I'm like, no, this is the clip
Speaker 2: that has been kind of cut off strategically at the
Speaker 2: end to make it sound like not that talking about
Speaker 2: people being genetically inferior is okay, But do you see
Speaker 2: what I mean? They sort of like take the they
Speaker 2: take the most problematic parts of things that Trump says,
Speaker 2: and they work it to their advantage. And that is
Speaker 2: what's happening inside Iran right now, or the redrawing of
Speaker 2: the maps. And you know, when he's not addressing the
Speaker 2: Iranian people directly, I mean I've been trying to get
Speaker 2: an interview with him. I'm saying, you need to speak
Speaker 2: to somebody who is Iranian American, who they trust, the
Speaker 2: Iranian people trust. I mean, half the battle is winning
Speaker 2: the hearts and minds of the Iranian people inside. Do
Speaker 2: you want them to almost be fighting with you, alongside you?
Speaker 2: And at first, I mean I had somebody message me
Speaker 2: when the bomb started, saying, when this is over, they're
Speaker 2: going to be erecting a statue of Trump in Azadi
Speaker 2: Square in Tehran. And now that sentiment is starting to
Speaker 2: shift because he's saying things like, oh, the map of
Speaker 2: Iran is not going to look the same after this,
Speaker 2: and you know, stuff like that, and that's really not
Speaker 2: going down will.
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Speaker 1: And yes, I too, am a customer. The other thing is,
Speaker 1: I don't think he is either getting the information or
Speaker 1: processing the information about the difficulty of this right and
Speaker 1: how you know, it does sound like he was. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: General Kine went on a for him, was a pr
Speaker 1: blitz about a week before the bombing started, just making
Speaker 1: sure everybody understood how hard this was going to be
Speaker 1: and that this wasn't going to be Venezuela and that
Speaker 1: this wasn't going to And it sounds like, I mean,
Speaker 1: I can just picture Trump. It looks like the story
Speaker 1: being that he was warned about the straight of horn
Speaker 1: moves and he's now kind of admitting sure, I was warned,
Speaker 1: but you know, he just assumed the regime would fold.
Speaker 1: And I don't know whether that was people telling him
Speaker 1: what he wanted to hear in order to get him
Speaker 1: to the yes on launching the strikes, or whether we
Speaker 1: had intelligence to indicate that this was possible. What's your
Speaker 1: sense on this?
Speaker 2: I mean, so, from what I know about people who
Speaker 2: have negotiated difficult things like North Korea, on Trump's behalf,
Speaker 2: he is somebody who makes decisions intuitively, and we're hearing
Speaker 2: that kind of backed up by Caroline Levitt and himself
Speaker 2: Trump himself. Bye. They continuously say, you know, Trump had
Speaker 2: a feeling or I'll do this when I feel it,
Speaker 2: and so or even.
Speaker 1: Like Tulsa Gabbard's statement, you know, he determined Aron was
Speaker 1: an imminent threat.
Speaker 2: Although okay, So I got asked about Joe Kent on
Speaker 2: air yesterday, and so I'm a bit confused about him
Speaker 2: because previous statements have said Iran is a threat, Iran
Speaker 2: is an eminent threat, Iran needs to be neutralized. Mind you,
Speaker 2: you know his wife was killed in Iraq. I believe
Speaker 2: it was Iraq, his first wife. And now once this
Speaker 2: resignation came out and you know, the media is calling
Speaker 2: it a wartime to defection, and that's kind of how
Speaker 2: it's being spun. People are saying that he's being influenced
Speaker 2: by his new wife, who works for a kind of
Speaker 2: outlet that's sympathetic to the Iranians. And so I think
Speaker 2: this all plays into the information warfare that the Iranians
Speaker 2: like that just that just a hand of them like
Speaker 2: yet another win, because it's like, oh, look, the Americans
Speaker 2: don't have it together and we're starting to see wartime defections,
Speaker 2: and the Iranians are baiting Trump into putting boots on
Speaker 2: the ground, which is an absolutely horrible idea and should
Speaker 2: absolutely not happen. Special forces operations to bust out the
Speaker 2: prisoners from Eavin. Sure, boots on the ground, no way,
Speaker 2: all right, but how do.
Speaker 1: You secure the straight if how do you secure the
Speaker 1: straight without boots on the shoreline?
Speaker 2: I knew this. I wouldn't be here right now to right.
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I think this is where I think
Speaker 1: he got himself into it. What I've been calling a
Speaker 1: you know, quicksand or a Chinese finger trap, because you know,
Speaker 1: we're in this situation now the United States is why
Speaker 1: we're here and well, ultimately it's the Iranian regime is
Speaker 1: why we're here. But let's in the current moment. Why
Speaker 1: is the Straight not navigable at the moment, It's because
Speaker 1: of actions by the United States. So in theory it
Speaker 1: is our responsibility. And I don't know how you can't
Speaker 1: do it with their power and naval power alone. You know,
Speaker 1: you cannot guarantee one hundred percent safety with without that.
Speaker 1: So it is one of those where tactically you're going
Speaker 1: to have to have some boots on the ground.
Speaker 2: Now do you mean get the Marines on harg Island?
Speaker 1: Well, I think this is where we're you know, this
Speaker 1: is you know, this is the mission creep fear right,
Speaker 1: But this is how these things happen. Nobody wants to
Speaker 1: put boots on the ground. You do it because you
Speaker 1: think there's no other choice. And I think now, so
Speaker 1: if you think there's no other choice to open the Straight,
Speaker 1: you say, that's a disaster. If it's to keep the
Speaker 1: Straight open, you know, what do the Golf States want?
Speaker 1: What do the you know, do they? And this is
Speaker 1: where there's some confusion. In fact, I just I'm rambling here.
Speaker 1: So let me actually put a pin in this and
Speaker 1: let's move to the Golf States. Did MBS push Trump
Speaker 1: to do this or not? And I say that because
Speaker 1: there was this high profile Washington Post story that indicated
Speaker 1: that was the case. Now you've got whether it's a
Speaker 1: billionaire and cutter or the UAE making it pretty clear
Speaker 1: that they did and this is not what they were
Speaker 1: looking for. Do we think the Gulf State sent a
Speaker 1: mixed message to the administration. This is a case where yeah,
Speaker 1: they were all for it if they thought they could
Speaker 1: get it done, and now that this isn't working, they're like, well, geez,
Speaker 1: I don't want my fingerprints on this. Now, what's what's
Speaker 1: your understanding of? You know? Essentially, what did the UAE
Speaker 1: in Saudis want here? And were they supportive until they
Speaker 1: weren't or were they always skeptical?
Speaker 2: So the story that isn't being talked about is that
Speaker 2: in the lead up to this, the Saudis and the
Speaker 2: Amorants were beefing, right.
Speaker 1: They still they were. They're in a proxy war in
Speaker 1: Africa right now, aren't they.
Speaker 2: Their relationship with starting to deteriorate, much like in the
Speaker 2: twenty seventeen GCC blockade era when Katar was in the doghouse, right,
Speaker 2: And so now with the UA getting hit so hard,
Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia is not getting hit as hard as the UA.
Speaker 2: It's not. And my source is my Marati sources have
Speaker 2: noted that to me and have said, you know, I
Speaker 2: don't understand why Saudi is not getting hit like we
Speaker 2: are when they were for the strikes. So there is this,
Speaker 2: at least from the Imarati side, there is this sense
Speaker 2: that the Saudis were pro the strikes.
Speaker 1: What are the the way the Iranians are behaving that's
Speaker 1: not the case. Or are the Iranians afraid to engage Saudi?
Speaker 2: Remember that China brokeer the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia,
Speaker 2: So I think that's playing a part. I think that's
Speaker 2: playing apart. I think China, we haven't really I mean,
Speaker 2: so Trump did end up postponing the summit, didn't he
Speaker 2: his trip to China?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: So I think I think. I think in the next
Speaker 2: week or so, we'll probably see. I would expect we
Speaker 2: would see. I think China's role might become a bit
Speaker 2: more clear.
Speaker 1: What do you expect them to play a sort of
Speaker 1: a diplomatic role with with trying to bring the Iranians,
Speaker 1: you know, sort of almost being a proxy for the
Speaker 1: Iranians to bring them to the table to do a ceasefire.
Speaker 1: Is that what you expect?
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that that. I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 2: if they try that. You know, they they brokeered the
Speaker 2: the kind of detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, So
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if China tries that now. At
Speaker 2: the same time, like again, the regime can't stay in place.
Speaker 2: It just it can't stay unless it can't stay in
Speaker 2: place unless it's a complete you know, lay down our arms.
Speaker 2: We are at peace, like no more death to America,
Speaker 2: like we're friends.
Speaker 1: But as you just said, like they don't have an
Speaker 1: identity without fighting the West. I mean, and this, I
Speaker 1: think this has always been the hardest thing to explain
Speaker 1: to some some of some parts of the American audience,
Speaker 1: where look this regime, you know, and you know they
Speaker 1: don't like to hear these we're in a battle for this,
Speaker 1: you know, for this is a cultural war as much
Speaker 1: as anything else. But it kind of is right, and
Speaker 1: it's a we we we we view everybody through the
Speaker 1: prism of how we see the world. And our pluralism
Speaker 1: and and our idealism, and we we can't fathom that
Speaker 1: that there are literally almost a suicidal theocracies out there,
Speaker 1: you know, that don't And I think Trump has a
Speaker 1: hard time processing this. I think Trump assumes everybody's motivated
Speaker 1: by the thing He's motivated for money, fame, and power,
Speaker 1: and that ultimately.
Speaker 2: Americans in general, I think this is an American phenomenon.
Speaker 2: I think we have difficulty wrapping our head around the
Speaker 2: fact that people there are people out there who hate
Speaker 2: us just because we are like they exist.
Speaker 1: Because right we think we're decadent, you know, and that
Speaker 1: we we are too materialistic, and this is why you know,
Speaker 1: civilization is on the downslope, et cetera. Right like, and look,
Speaker 1: whether there's a portion of that, there's actually a portion
Speaker 1: of that mindset that fuels the Mega movement ironically domestically.
Speaker 1: And so that's what actually makes me sometimes frustrated with
Speaker 1: Trump that he doesn't understand the Iranian theocracy when like, dude,
Speaker 1: you're part of your your your some of your followers
Speaker 1: view you as the head of a future theocracy, even
Speaker 1: if you don't actually believe the own your own messages
Speaker 1: that you're selling.
Speaker 2: But this is why I find it so ironic when
Speaker 2: you see people, you know, protesting or mourning the death
Speaker 2: of the Supreme Leader. I mean, the Supreme Leader. His
Speaker 2: whole ethos was death to America, which means death to Americans.
Speaker 2: But of course it's so hypocritical because you know, these
Speaker 2: these people preach death to America and try to ban
Speaker 2: everything American and Western, and yet they partake in it themselves.
Speaker 2: I mean, one time I was texting with a source
Speaker 2: who is close to this now diseased Supreme Leader, I mean,
Speaker 2: like he's in the inner Circle, and I mentioned I
Speaker 2: referenced something he had said, and he said, I didn't
Speaker 2: say that, and I'm like, yes, you did. And it
Speaker 2: comes back and he says, oh, I must have been drunk.
Speaker 1: Oh really, I didn't know we were drinking.
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh yeah, no, there's I mean, that's the thing.
Speaker 2: This is, like all of the things that are decadent
Speaker 2: and sinful about America and Western culture they taken themselves.
Speaker 2: Like it's just complete hypocrisy, right, And you know we
Speaker 2: see in these sort of op hits about like Ali
Speaker 2: Lara Johnny saying, well, you know, he he hated Western ideals,
Speaker 2: but at the same time was fascinated by them. And so,
Speaker 2: you know, one of the problems for the regime was
Speaker 2: social media. Like social media was kind of the beginning
Speaker 2: of the end for them because they couldn't control the
Speaker 2: narrative anymore. So they could go in and raid people's
Speaker 2: houses and take their satellites and throw them in jail,
Speaker 2: but they couldn't. They couldn't monitor all of the different
Speaker 2: social media channels, like they just couldn't. People were too clever.
Speaker 2: They have VPNs, you know, even though they did sort
Speaker 2: of think they were being clever and create these VPNs
Speaker 2: that were actually IERGC links, So like people were downloading
Speaker 2: VPNs thinking they're getting around the Internet blackouts and then
Speaker 2: actually downloading ERGC link to VPNs and that's how they
Speaker 2: catching them. So it's like really diabolical, but still, you know,
Speaker 2: they they couldn't and so like that, the TikTok dances
Speaker 2: and all of the stuff that attracted the Gen Z generation,
Speaker 2: they lost control of that generation, and the kind of
Speaker 2: forcing of Islam on the younger population just completely backfired.
Speaker 1: Well trying to figure out you know, you know, all
Speaker 1: regimes come to an end quickly, but it takes a
Speaker 1: long time for them, for the quick for the quick ending.
Speaker 1: You know, it's like, you know, it's like the joke
Speaker 1: about bankruptcy. First it happened slowly, then it happens quickly, right.
Speaker 2: And that's but it's not just like unraveling. Right.
Speaker 1: It feels like it's unraveling, but it could still be years,
Speaker 1: not months, not weeks, right, or do you really think
Speaker 1: we're no longer counting in years. We're now finally counting
Speaker 1: in months.
Speaker 2: When you pull a thread, it kind of takes a
Speaker 2: while for it to start to realize unravel But then
Speaker 2: when it unravels, it unravels quickly, right, like when it
Speaker 2: reaches a point where then just disintegrates. And twenty twenty two, So,
Speaker 2: like I said, women had been quietly kind of pulling
Speaker 2: at the very thread of the fabric of the regime,
Speaker 2: which was hijab. It's a pillar of the Islamic Republic.
Speaker 2: Hijab was a pillar of the Islamic Republic because it
Speaker 2: was its most obvious, in your face way of exercising
Speaker 2: control and ruling with fear and the politics of sadness
Speaker 2: by like stripping color of our clothes. I mean, there's
Speaker 2: like there's so much psychological processing and manipulation that goes
Speaker 2: into this. But once that started to unravel quickly after
Speaker 2: a woman life freedom, that's how we reached this point.
Speaker 2: And so like the fabric, the literal fabric of the
Speaker 2: regime is now falling apart. It's just falling apart.
Speaker 1: We've been speaking for almost an hour and we've barely
Speaker 1: mentioned Israel. Yeah, yeah, in this country. It is the
Speaker 1: driving narrative of this war. Is Israel's role, Israel's you know,
Speaker 1: just you know, and for Israel, we know, look, they
Speaker 1: just the decision was made after October seventh, you know,
Speaker 1: no more uneasy piece right that they wanted to try to,
Speaker 1: you know, permanently eliminate Iran's ability to wage proxy war
Speaker 1: against the Israelis right, whether that was destroying Hasbelad, destroying
Speaker 1: a mass and doing what they're doing. I understand the mindset.
Speaker 1: We'll see if I think, we'll see if this is
Speaker 1: a workable strategy for them. But what is that long
Speaker 1: term impact and what if what is Iran's relations what
Speaker 1: is a future Iran's relationship, But what are Iranians relationship
Speaker 1: with Israel if indeed the regime falls and you know,
Speaker 1: history is going to I think correctly noteed you know
Speaker 1: as much the Israelis pushed the United States to do this.
Speaker 2: So early September twenty twenty two, a few weeks before
Speaker 2: Massa Amoni was killed in the Woman Life Freedom Uprising
Speaker 2: kicked off, I was in Tel Aviv and I was
Speaker 2: reporting for a documentary that I was hosting on the BBC.
Speaker 2: Got out of the shadows about the covert war between
Speaker 2: Iran and Israel, and before I had just moved to
Speaker 2: Dubai and I took the flight, the direct flight from
Speaker 2: Dubai to Tel Aviv. This was a historic flight because
Speaker 2: the Abraham Accords had just been reached, and you know,
Speaker 2: it was a very big deal. And I think that
Speaker 2: again to Trump's credit, he doesn't get credit, He does
Speaker 2: not get enough credit for what a big deal the
Speaker 2: Abraham Accords was. You know, it did also happen in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty it was during COVID, like quite a lot
Speaker 2: overshadowed it. But again I think like because of this
Speaker 2: animosity towards Trump, which is often very valid, there's a
Speaker 2: hesitance to give credit.
Speaker 1: Record blind it can blind, right. Trump Trump arrangement syndrome
Speaker 1: is a thing like there is.
Speaker 2: Some truth to it is a thing and so and so.
Speaker 2: But before I took that fight game, source of my
Speaker 2: kind of insider source of mine called me and he
Speaker 2: said worried about called it a miscalculation. He said he
Speaker 2: was really worried about a miscalculation in the Iran Israel
Speaker 2: covert conflict, and that he worried it was going to
Speaker 2: spill out into the open and be a full on
Speaker 2: kinetic war, like bombs dropping out in the open. And
Speaker 2: I and you know, like the thing is like it
Speaker 2: kind of felt that way, like it felt like I
Speaker 2: was in a bit of a tinder box being in Dubai,
Speaker 2: like there was tension. I didn't expect it to be
Speaker 2: woman life freedom truly, and I actually think woman life
Speaker 2: freedom maybe delayed what inevitably ended up being the twelve
Speaker 2: Day war last year. We kind of distracted. But when
Speaker 2: I went to Tel Aviv, I sat down with Amir Pardo,
Speaker 2: former MASADE chief, and got basically what was the closest
Speaker 2: to an admission on the targeted assassinations program. He was
Speaker 2: the architect of the targeted assassinations program in Iran, where
Speaker 2: you know, they started to just assassinate nuclear scientists. The
Speaker 2: Israeli started to assassinate nuclear scientists in around and when
Speaker 2: I was there, I was posting on Instagram, which actually
Speaker 2: got me kind of blacklisted among the influencer circles in Dubai.
Speaker 2: So even though the UAE had just signed a deal
Speaker 2: with Israel and you know, you know peace, we're going
Speaker 2: to be friends and we're going to do deals, people
Speaker 2: in Dubai we're not happy about it. And largely the
Speaker 2: Arab population is not happy about their governments doing business
Speaker 2: with Israel and recognizing Israel. They are not democracies.
Speaker 1: Yes, the leaders are want to do business with Israel
Speaker 1: more than the people do right, yes.
Speaker 2: Very much, and to be with their leaders no, complete opposite.
Speaker 2: I had people in Iran messaging me on Instagram, dming
Speaker 2: me on Instagram and saying, please tell the Israelis that
Speaker 2: we love them. These are not people that I know.
Speaker 2: I don't know them. These are random people who follow
Speaker 2: me on Instagram and saw I was in Israel and
Speaker 2: DMed me and we're like sending me messages in Farsi
Speaker 2: and voice notes and saying, please tell the Israelis that
Speaker 2: we have no problem with them, We love them like
Speaker 2: we want our countries to be friends. You know, our
Speaker 2: governments are keeping us apart. So I'm saying that because
Speaker 2: if and when this regime is finished, you know, whatever
Speaker 2: that whatever the regime turns into, If and when an
Speaker 2: Islamic republic that lives and breathes death to America, death
Speaker 2: to Israel no longer exists, yeah, there will be a
Speaker 2: friendship that goes back to what used to exist.
Speaker 1: It'll be and it could be you know what you're describing.
Speaker 1: It's sort of like, you know, if I told Americans
Speaker 1: in nineteen forty, if I went back into a time machine,
Speaker 1: I said, you know, two of America's closest allies for
Speaker 1: a good forty years in the future is going to
Speaker 1: be Germany and Japan. Well, Americans would have been, what
Speaker 1: are you talking about? And this could be. I that's
Speaker 1: my assumption to that fifty years from now, the relationship
Speaker 1: between Israel and Iran is going to be this incredibly
Speaker 1: important and tight relationship, and in many ways, instead of
Speaker 1: being competitors, they might be the co leaders of a
Speaker 1: thriving Middle East. And it's the Gulf states that are
Speaker 1: left out in the sidelines.
Speaker 2: But I think that's why the golf leaders recognize that
Speaker 2: I think like NBS smart. Whatever people might want to
Speaker 2: say about him, you know, and his team rights record,
Speaker 2: he is smart. But also like if these countries were democracies,
Speaker 2: they would have problems with you know, controlling the population.
Speaker 2: And there by.
Speaker 1: The way we have a taste of it. Just look
Speaker 1: at Turkey or the brief period we had Egypt as
Speaker 1: a democracy who got elected.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's like it's a it's an uncomfortable part
Speaker 2: of the conversation, right, but but it has to be said.
Speaker 2: And I was actually, it's funny you mentioned Japan because
Speaker 2: I was just in Japan. I hit my I was
Speaker 2: celebrating my end of my hundred country challenge and and
Speaker 2: I was thinking, thank you, and I was just thinking
Speaker 2: about that. I said, you know, like we don't talk
Speaker 2: about the concept of forgiveness in geopolitics. And that's why
Speaker 2: I I, you know, the diaspora is very opinionated, and
Speaker 2: so when I have men like, Okay, what do the
Speaker 2: options look like for how Iran becomes just a republic
Speaker 2: and not an Islamic republic? Does that mean there are
Speaker 2: kind of people who were in the regime who kind
Speaker 2: of come to the other side. You know, there has
Speaker 2: to be an element of forgiveness because you know, there
Speaker 2: was a there was a massacre that everybody who was
Speaker 2: in the regime is accounted for, right, is accountable for
Speaker 2: rather But at the same time, you know, like you said,
Speaker 2: we're friends with Germany and we're friends Japan. We dropped
Speaker 2: a nuclear bomb on Japan, right, you know, they attacked us,
Speaker 2: very good friends with them.
Speaker 1: Probably a lot to learn from the Japanese about forgiveness.
Speaker 1: It could be the ones really bitter to this day.
Speaker 2: And it's not that long ago. I mean, it's still
Speaker 2: in our it's still in our lifetime and.
Speaker 1: Like we're alive today exactly exactly. Well, there's no good
Speaker 1: place to end this conversation because we're in the middle
Speaker 1: of something. But you know, meaning you know, I know
Speaker 1: we're not. We're not in any resolution mode here, so
Speaker 1: it's hard to so I know we're going to be
Speaker 1: doing it to be continued because I think we I'd
Speaker 1: love to, you know, I think you know, do you
Speaker 1: look at this war in two week chunks, in one
Speaker 1: week chunks and three week chunks, what's your sense of
Speaker 1: of how you view this. I assume we're running out
Speaker 1: of targets that are reasonable at this point.
Speaker 2: So what I've noticed now in the kind of it's
Speaker 2: moving into the intelligence it's maybe kind of it started
Speaker 2: on the intelligence front, right, it started as an intelligence war,
Speaker 2: then it became started as a covert war, that's what
Speaker 2: my whole documentary is about, and then it moved into
Speaker 2: a kinetic war. And now I'm starting to see that
Speaker 2: it's moving sort of back into the cloak and diagres
Speaker 2: bycraft side of things that's going to be necessary to
Speaker 2: hip the scale. And I'm saying that because we're starting
Speaker 2: to see a reporting, you know, the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 2: how to report of how Mossad is kind of calling
Speaker 2: individual I er GC members and basically telling them that
Speaker 2: they're a target. And there's one a quote from one
Speaker 2: it's a recording, I guess, and what one has said,
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not your enemy, like I'm a walking
Speaker 2: dead man. On I'm a walking dead man as it is.
Speaker 2: And I think it's important for your audience to remember
Speaker 2: who are the people inside, Like who is the IRGC?
Speaker 2: What is the IRGC. So you have every young man
Speaker 2: has to do their military service much like Israel, and
Speaker 2: you have to do a couple of years and you
Speaker 2: have either the artesh the army or the rier GC.
Speaker 2: You don't get to choose, you get you get put
Speaker 2: into either there or in the army.
Speaker 5: So like you could be a gay, tatted up like
Speaker 5: rock and roll loving guy and end up having to
Speaker 5: fight with ye your GC, like you could not believe
Speaker 5: in any of their Islamic And.
Speaker 1: What you're saying is you think there isn't an opportunity
Speaker 1: here where where there's dissension in the ranks.
Speaker 2: The problem here is again goes back to information. Hearing
Speaker 2: about the dissension of the ranks is going to be
Speaker 2: the bigger problem. So I was told that I was
Speaker 2: told by one of my sources in Iran that, I
Speaker 2: mean a civilian source that basically everybody thinks much Double
Speaker 2: is dead. Much Double comedy is the new so called Supremely.
Speaker 1: There's no proof of life. I mean, I'm sorry, so
Speaker 1: do I you know everyone? Yeah, I don't think he
Speaker 1: ever was alive or maybe he was on life support.
Speaker 2: The statement that he put out, like when you read
Speaker 2: when you read it, it's very clearly more than one
Speaker 2: person wrote this statement. There's lots of different there's lots
Speaker 2: of input. Right now, it turns out he's dead. That
Speaker 2: is a huge blow for the IRGC because they couldn't
Speaker 2: protect him. You know, Yes, Ali Laira Johnny is a
Speaker 2: big is a big one that they've lost. But they
Speaker 2: couldn't protect mush Tabba. They couldn't protect the Supreme Leader.
Speaker 2: And the thing is, you know, mush Tabba was always
Speaker 2: kind of rumored to be the favorite to take over
Speaker 2: and be the next Supreme Leader. Killing his dad basically
Speaker 2: good that the eventual, inevitable process, right, And so I
Speaker 2: think like that's why the PR part of this is
Speaker 2: so important and the White House really needs to up
Speaker 2: its game on it. They are not doing a good job.
Speaker 2: Like it's Persian New Year. What's their plan?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a plan.
Speaker 2: You know, Like this is a prime opportunity. You know,
Speaker 2: if if I was White House communications director, I'd be like,
Speaker 2: all right, we've got thirteen days, you know, like we
Speaker 2: have like a blast, we have a like who are
Speaker 2: we talking to, who are we reaching? What's our messaging?
Speaker 2: You know, like now is the time.
Speaker 1: There's an opportunity here yet.
Speaker 2: So that's why, I mean, the intelligence side of this
Speaker 2: is really important for the next two weeks.
Speaker 1: Knowing my listeners is on they're going to want more
Speaker 1: from you before I get you on here again. Where
Speaker 1: can they find your work?
Speaker 2: Right? Yes, so we are on substack, Helmet to Heels
Speaker 2: dot com. And then my podcast is Global Powershifts on YouTube.
Speaker 2: I co host that with Jim Stenman, a former CNN correspondent,
Speaker 2: and then I'm on Instagram on Poor World and Helmet
Speaker 2: to Heels also on Twitter x poor World.
Speaker 1: Well, and you're a thriving and de pendant journalists, and
Speaker 1: thank goodness for it. It's not easy being independent. You've
Speaker 1: got to especially what you're trying to do, travel the world, security,
Speaker 1: all sorts of stuff. So encourage my my listeners and
Speaker 1: my wife and viewers to support the work that you're doing.
Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you.
Speaker 1: This is exactly how I expected what I expected from
Speaker 1: this conversation, which which was to learn a lot and
Speaker 1: understand that make a pact. Yes, ma'am, do.
Speaker 2: An episode having tea in Tehran.
Speaker 1: I'd love to do that. I'd love to do that.
Speaker 1: I'd love to get to Trent. All right, Well, we're
Speaker 1: going to get there, all right, Susan. This was great,
Speaker 1: Thanks for the time.
Speaker 2: Thank you.