1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,240 Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 2 00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: by Incognate. You know, one of the things we talk 3 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: a lot about on this podcast is trust, who deserves 4 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: it and who doesn't. And lately I've been thinking about 5 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: how much of our personal information is just floating around online. 6 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: I'm talking about phone numbers, home addresses, emails, even information 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: about your family, all sitting on websites you've probably never 8 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: heard of. 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Use the code you get a discal again, 27 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: that's in cogni dot com slash chucktodcast and use the 28 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: code Chuck podcast to get sixty percent off and start 29 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: taking control of your personal data today. Trust me, I'm 30 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: constantly working on this for years myself, and here's an 31 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,919 Speaker 1: opportunity for you to take matters into your own hands 32 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: as well. Joining me now is Suzan Conpour. She is 33 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 1: a veteran journalist co host of a podcast on global affairs. 34 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: She's worked at NBC. Although we are paths only briefly, 35 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: I think crossed back in her early days in NBC. 36 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,359 Speaker 1: She's been around the world. I just recently spent a 37 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 1: lot of time with her, and I think this context matters. 38 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: In December at a media conference, and I think I 39 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: had told told you guys, some of you that may 40 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: remember it was an Abu Dhabi for a large media 41 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: conference really very industry focused, as much of tactical parts 42 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: of the of the media world as much as content 43 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: parts of the media world. For instance, there was a 44 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: big gamer section to this to this conference. But I 45 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: had the pleasure of being of having dinner with Susan 46 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: and her husband and a bunch of other journalists and 47 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: we had a fascinating conversation about Iran and about And 48 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,239 Speaker 1: this was in December. Abu Dhabi's got a big diaspora 49 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: of Averaranians and it was in you know, I had 50 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 1: basically was peppering Susan with all these questions. So I 51 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: hear this, and I hear this, and it was like, boy, 52 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: is this regime gonna fall? I mean, how bad is 53 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: things in Tehran? And there was this feeling it could 54 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: be five months, but it may still be five years. 55 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: All of this before any thought that we were going 56 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: to see what we're seeing in the moment now, and 57 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 1: so I couldn't think of a better time to try 58 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: to catch up with Suzan than right now. Suzan, welcome to. 59 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 2: The tod tast Thank you, thanks for having me. Todd. 60 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: I mean, it kind of feels like yesterday. 61 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: But well it does. We just sort of connect and 62 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: somebody's connected and we've been staying in touch since. And yet, 63 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: my god, that was like a whole lifetime ago too, 64 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: and it's only been literally, I think, four months, so 65 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: that's we met Bobby. 66 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: That was December eighth, that day. So so my wedding, 67 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 2: my first wedding anniversaries are dragged. My husband too, Yes, 68 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 2: she did. 69 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: Well, he was at your conference. 70 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 2: You know, when my company values IPO is at a 71 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: billion dollars somewhere down the line, it'll be a good 72 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 2: story to tell. 73 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: That's right. You know, on our first anniversary we were 74 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: able to you know, yadayada YadA. 75 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 2: Right, yeah, exactly. But a couple of weeks after that 76 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 2: was when everything really kicked off over the holidays, and 77 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 2: there wasn't a whole lot of media coverage on the 78 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 2: protests that happened in Iran because of the currency tanked. 79 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 2: So the currency tanked and people just it was like 80 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 2: that was what made them snap, that was what made 81 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 2: people snap. They poured into the streets. It'said, you know 82 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 2: what this government's got to go down with. You can't 83 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 2: even govern correct, you can't even keep the lights on 84 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 2: and can't keep the water going. And this is a 85 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 2: oil rich country. And so that's why when we see 86 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 2: things and I'm sure we'll get into all this, that's 87 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 2: why we see reports about these leaders their real estate 88 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 2: portfolios in Europe and London on billionaire's row being exposed. 89 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 2: That's why it just hurts that much more. 90 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: Right, because this is so personal and visceral and just 91 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,600 Speaker 1: sort of basics and survival for folks that actually live 92 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: in Iran at the moment. Before we get into all 93 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: the current events, you tell me your story of how 94 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: you ended up in journalism, your family history in Persia. 95 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 2: So I am literally a child of this conflict. My 96 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 2: mother and father met in Alabama during the Aurun hostage 97 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 2: crisis as students, and at the time, you know, on 98 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 2: the evening newscast, there were images of American diplomats blindfolded 99 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 2: and these insurgents holding Americans hostage. And so that was 100 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 2: the image of Iranians at the time. And so when 101 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 2: my father went to go and propose to my mother, 102 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 2: my grandfather Sicilian American came to the US on Ellis 103 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 2: Island chased them off the lawn with a firearm because 104 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 2: Granians were kind of seen as terrorists in many parts 105 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 2: of the country, particularly at Alabama. And so, you know, 106 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 2: years later, when I was born, the Iran I Rock 107 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 2: conflict was a war was raging, and I ultimately ended 108 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 2: up raised by my Persian aunt, my dad's sister, and 109 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 2: she taught me Farsi. But she was a war refugee, 110 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 2: so she has a you know, she managed to make 111 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 2: it to America through a pretty harrowing experience as a 112 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 2: refugee through Europe to be able to make it here, 113 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 2: you know. And then my first my first kind of 114 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 2: memories of watching TV news was Desert Store. I grew 115 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 2: up in Atlanta, and I grew up around lots of 116 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 2: newspapers in the house, the Atlanta Journal Constitution. I remember 117 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 2: reading about Kosovo in Time magazine for kids, and so 118 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 2: I was always, for some reason, probably sort of epigetically 119 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: drawn to conflict resolution, because I had literally made up 120 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 2: of a conflict and it took years for read to 121 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 2: really even kind of recognize that thread. 122 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: And so then do you find yourself being a big 123 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: media do you feel like you're always a mediate her? 124 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: I mean, I you know, you know, I am. I'm 125 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 1: a child of a mixed religious marriage, and for many 126 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: of my father's side of the family, my mother was 127 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: the first Jew many of them had ever met. Yeah, 128 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: they weren't thrilled about it, you know, they didn't. She 129 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: wasn't being chased off with a shotgun. So I'm not 130 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: gunning too that. But she was always reminded that she 131 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: was Jewish every time she went to that side of 132 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: the family. They was sort of like that's all they 133 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: saw in her head, you know, type of thing. And 134 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: so I know what it made me do. I'm always like, 135 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: I just want everybody get along. Yeah, I'm just curious. 136 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: Is that does that? Does that feel like that be 137 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: a description? You're always just trying to like, hey, no, no, no, 138 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: let's have some peace, you know. 139 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 3: And I think in a lot of ways, sort of 140 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 3: being of a mixed background, you you can relate to 141 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 3: different people, and so you end up automatically being that 142 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 3: person and kind of being the convener and being the 143 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 3: diplomatic kind of you. 144 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: Can be a chameleon to people or a test whatever 145 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: you want to call it. 146 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. 147 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 4: I mean. 148 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: So years later, after I left NBCi, I was at 149 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 2: the BBC for most of my career, for almost twelve years, 150 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 2: and I was covering the State Department, so I would 151 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 2: travel with the Secretary of State and the around nuclear 152 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 2: negotiations sort was sort of my breakthrough story. And I 153 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 2: remember when the nuclear deal was reached, which obviously it 154 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 2: ended up being a controversial deal. Many people weren't happy 155 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 2: about it. A lot of the elements of what people 156 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 2: weren't happy about now is clear why. But I did 157 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 2: a story on the women of the Iroun deal, which 158 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 2: sort of ended up. I didn't realize it was at 159 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 2: the time becoming now the company that I'm building and running. 160 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 2: But at the time I did a story about the 161 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 2: women of the around deal, and I interviewed Frederica Mugerini, 162 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 2: who was the Italian representative, and we were before we 163 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 2: were before we did the interview. We were chatting about 164 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 2: my background and she said, wow, you know, like you've 165 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 2: got the Italian, you've got the Iranian, you've got the American. 166 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 2: You work for the Brits, Like you should have been 167 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 2: in there negotiating. 168 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 1: With right, you should have been part of the group. 169 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 2: Right. 170 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's true, you know, you kind of there's 171 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 4: a lot of cultural nuances in global affairs and diploasi 172 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,559 Speaker 4: and current events, which is why sometimes I worry what 173 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 4: I'm looking at who is advising the Trump. 174 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 2: Administration right now, because I think how the Iranians think 175 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 2: and operate is they play the long game. It's an 176 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 2: ancient civilization and it show. 177 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: I mean, and you know the famous line from the Taliban, 178 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: you've got the watches, We've got the time. I think 179 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 1: there's a similar mindset perhaps with this regime, right. 180 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: Yes, and you know, they there's been so much criticism 181 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 2: of the media from the diaspora, the Iranian diaspora. People 182 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 2: are particularly upset at Fred for the CNN reporter who 183 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 2: red plate and reporter who went in. Of course, it's 184 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 2: I believe it's very important to be on the ground. Well, 185 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 2: at some point you do kind of have to make 186 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 2: a call of whether you're going to keep doing it, 187 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 2: because whether you're going to keep sort of signing up 188 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 2: to the rules. 189 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: But look, it's a tough decision. Look as you know 190 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 1: Alia Rusi, you know, who's a dual citizen, our former 191 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: colleague at NBC, the Tayran Bureauchi from you know, there 192 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: were all sorts of you know, I mean, his mother 193 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: lives in Tehran. You know, his mother you know, and 194 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: there was always concern that the regime could threaten her 195 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: and whether we were always we had to be mindful, 196 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: you know, when we put them on air, because everybody's 197 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: got a family. 198 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 2: But they, the Iranians, use the democratic tools that we have, 199 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 2: the freedoms that we have to their advantage. They're quite 200 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 2: clever in that regards. And you know, even though I 201 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 2: know better, you know, like I know better, when they're 202 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 2: so good at their craft that it's almost like they 203 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 2: put you under a spell and you have to count yourself. 204 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 2: And an Iranian will recognize that, but an American will 205 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 2: even no matter how experienced you might be with them, 206 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 2: because it's psychological manipulation. 207 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: Let's talk about sort of this. I'm look, we're using 208 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 1: an artificial timeline here. When we first started, we were 209 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 1: having this conversation, and in fact, I think I even said, 210 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 1: I said, you know, I want to have you on 211 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: because I think people I think the underrated story of 212 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:36,079 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six could be the downfall of this regime. 213 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: I look, there's a lot of things in the Bingo card, 214 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: the United States aggressively pursuing a preemptive strike against Iran. 215 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: I just never foresaw. And I know that there's the 216 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: unpredictability of Trump, but there's always been a reason why 217 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: previous American presidents have stopped Israel from doing this and 218 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: have not done this for because of how how unmanageable 219 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:07,719 Speaker 1: the potential fallout could be. But I think what we 220 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 1: were discussing is, hey, you know, can this regime hold 221 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 1: If you can't even get hotable water, you know, drinking 222 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: water in Tehran? If you can't you don't have water, 223 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 1: how are they going to govern? And so then let's 224 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 1: go to the it's the revolution, the currency drafts, we 225 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 1: have the protests, what happens, what's happening in country at 226 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 1: the time, What are you hearing at the time, and 227 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: what are you thinking at the time? Is this How 228 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: vulnerable did the regime seem? And was there a lot 229 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: of chatter, Hey, with a little bit of help, maybe 230 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 1: from the United States or others, maybe this can happen. 231 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 2: So the June twelve Day war was a pivotal moment. 232 00:12:56,559 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 2: And even people who had worked for their regime who 233 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 2: had left and are now in the private sector and 234 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 2: that kind of had started to make them think differently 235 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 2: about the regime were messaging me and saying why didn't 236 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 2: Trump finish the job? And so, which I frankly was surprised. Naturally, 237 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 2: when you're being bombed, you're going through a whole range 238 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: of emotions, and most of those emotions are I hate 239 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 2: these people who are bombing me because obviously, and so 240 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 2: when when the bomb stopped, the kind of why didn't 241 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 2: he finish the job? Why isn't he finishing the job 242 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:39,679 Speaker 2: was really stuck with me. And that being said, now 243 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 2: that the scale of kind of destruction we're seeing has 244 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 2: really settled in, we keep hearing that, oh, you know, 245 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 2: if they just let it be, the regime would have 246 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 2: fallen on its own. 247 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: Do you believe that the problem? 248 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 2: I don't, mainly because they are masters at holding on 249 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 2: and will stop it nothing to hold on, and we 250 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 2: are seeing that mh in the fact that they are 251 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 2: literally shooting themselves in the foot by bombarding Dubai. That's 252 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 2: where all their money is. And so we were living 253 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 2: in Dubai. We never thought not that, we never thought 254 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 2: it was always a risk. I mean, you know, frankly, ultimately, 255 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 2: you know in the Middle East, like eventually it was 256 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 2: going to blow up. And wait, sorry, today, Lucy, no 257 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 2: we're here. 258 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, my photo rank right and interrupture. I know all 259 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: of our devices have to be connected. You know that 260 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 1: don't have to be connected Apple, Thank you. 261 00:14:54,400 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 2: I know, so we let me just go back. No, 262 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 2: I did not believe that they would be able to 263 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 2: fall on their own, because they've they'll do anything to 264 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 2: hang on to power. And we saw that in January, 265 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 2: and we've seen that in other points in history before. 266 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 2: You know, the massacre in January is not the first time. 267 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 2: It's just we now live in an age where dictators 268 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 2: can't hide. They can't hide. We watch everything very intimately 269 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 2: on our phones on Instagram. 270 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: Right, So, what's life right now? Like, what are you 271 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: hearing right now? Are people just living, you know, just 272 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: staying in shelter, staying in place. Are they trying to 273 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: leave if you have means to do that, and if so, 274 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: how are they leaving? Take me through some of the 275 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: some of the stories you're hearing. 276 00:15:55,880 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 2: I mean, to me, Frank, it's quite nerve wracking to 277 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 2: have people trying to leave right now. I mean, I 278 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 2: literally have a friend who I'm just checking up to 279 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 2: see if they've crossed over. The people are crossing over 280 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 2: the land borders when they can. But it's dangerous because 281 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 2: not only is dangerous because of the bombs, but it's 282 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 2: dangerous because there's checkpoints everywhere and the regime is extremely paranoid, 283 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 2: and so they're just arresting people and they're not they 284 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 2: kind of you know, it's a bit of a it's 285 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 2: a tricky one because if you're if you're trying to leave, 286 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 2: you know, you're well, why are you leaving now? And 287 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 2: at the same time people are trying to find moles 288 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 2: and spies. The regime is trying to find moles and spies, 289 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 2: and so it's just it's just dangerous. 290 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 1: To automatically a suspect as far as they're concerned. 291 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 2: But even just being out in the streets of checking 292 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 2: people's phones, like it's just a terrifying existence. And so 293 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 2: you're just in your house and mind you remember it's 294 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 2: Persian New Year, So Persian New Year starts on the 295 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 2: first day of the years on Friday. Last night, there's 296 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 2: a tradition called Charsha Ambassuri which you jump over fire 297 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 2: and sort of leave the ailments of the year of 298 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 2: the past and you kind of take the vibrance of the. 299 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: Fire just to timestamp this because this is going to 300 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: happen after the New Year. We're going to air this 301 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:28,679 Speaker 1: literally Monday after the New Year, so we're speaking before Friday, 302 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: but people will be hearing this after the New Year ahead. 303 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, so New Year goes on for thirteen days of celebration. 304 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 1: And not going to be a celebration this year. 305 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 2: No, But interesting enough, we are seeing videos coming out 306 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 2: of people who actually did go out and put little 307 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 2: fires out and they were jumping out or jumping over 308 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,360 Speaker 2: the fires, which the security forces tried to shut down. 309 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 2: But they do that every year because it's not an 310 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 2: Islamic tradition. It's a pre Islamic tradition. It's from their 311 00:17:56,320 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 2: Astrian era and it's just a Persian ronnie and tradition, 312 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 2: and so they don't like that, so they try to 313 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:06,919 Speaker 2: killer their joy. 314 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:08,640 Speaker 1: And they would they do that anytime. 315 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,640 Speaker 2: A year, every year, every year, every year. 316 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 317 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from 318 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: Frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, arteiasonal pastries and 319 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,959 Speaker 1: fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty 320 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: five minutes or less, Unlike many store brought options. 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I mean, like, I'm not 349 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 2: convinced that they can, that they will hang on. So 350 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 2: they can hang on, I'm not convinced that they will 351 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:24,719 Speaker 2: hang on because ultimately, I mean, here's the thing. There's 352 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,239 Speaker 2: the Trump administration says that people need to rise up 353 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 2: and take back their country, and yes they can, but 354 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 2: you can't bring a knife to a gunfight. And the 355 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:40,199 Speaker 2: opposition is inside it be in prison. So I'm the 356 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 2: executive producer of an animated short documentary, a film directed 357 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 2: by a Hodda Soapani, an Iranian filmmaker, and this is 358 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 2: the story of her friend Nedda, who was a woman 359 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 2: life freedom activist and she was thrown in prison and 360 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 2: the story is of a night where in prison was 361 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 2: on fire and it was a strange evening because they 362 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 2: could hear gunshots, they didn't really know what was going on, 363 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:15,600 Speaker 2: and it was a really harrowing evening. And then suddenly 364 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 2: two days later they were all released and they were 365 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 2: threatened to never talk about that night. So something happened, 366 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 2: very likely a sort of attempted uprising from inside the prison. 367 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 2: And so the way for the regime to not survive 368 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 2: is quite frankly, for those people to be empowered. And 369 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:37,919 Speaker 2: in order for them to be empowered, they need to 370 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 2: be busted out of prison and some sort of special operations, 371 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 2: and they need to be armed. I mean, remember, this 372 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,360 Speaker 2: regime didn't come out of nowhere. There was a revolution 373 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy nine, and so a counter revolution is 374 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: very much a possibility. 375 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 1: So I spoke with John Bolton a couple weeks ago, 376 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 1: and his big criticism of what Trump's done is the 377 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 1: lack of attempt even attempting to work with an opposition 378 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: to organize, to help organize it. Frankly, you know a 379 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: lot of this. You you have to plant these seeds 380 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:16,719 Speaker 1: before the military campaign begins and look for a variety 381 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 1: of reasons, whether it's killing U. S. A, I D 382 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: neutering the US Information Agency, right, all of our soft 383 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: power tools got gutted. So so that was a missing piece. 384 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 1: But this issue with the opposition, because it's this is 385 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 1: you know, the other version of events you here, you 386 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: know they're they're in prison or they're in hiding, right 387 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,880 Speaker 1: because they've been dispersed or they've been killed by by 388 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:46,879 Speaker 1: this regime. So it sounds like you think that, you know, 389 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 1: if there was if there had been some pre war 390 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: planning of okay, you know who are who are some 391 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 1: of the key opposition leaders. Now it's look to give 392 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,320 Speaker 1: you my read from this, it's clear that after the 393 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 1: experienced I'm had with Venezuela, he decided the easy way 394 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: out is Hey, the big criticism of Iraq was the 395 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: debathification process. So why don't we just keep the regime 396 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 1: in place and just find a more client leader. We 397 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: did it in Venezuela. Why can't we do it here? 398 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 1: So they you know, that appears to be how they 399 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 1: sort of set aside the idea of working with an opposition, 400 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: of developing an opposition, of essentially freeing the opposition from 401 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: from prison. Now that they're stuck in this is this 402 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: the only play? 403 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,439 Speaker 2: Not necessarily, I mean, the fact of the matter is 404 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 2: there are no great love this options. So that's much 405 00:23:52,320 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 2: like many of our American elections. Yeah, because so the 406 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 2: issue with John Bolton and some of his colleagues is 407 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 2: that they have a particular opposition group in mind, and 408 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 2: that is the Mujahadin, the MAK right, and nobody in 409 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 2: around wants the Maak. Same with the diaspora. They are 410 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 2: pretty much a radical group and they have deep pockets 411 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 2: and pay lots of people to lobby for them. And 412 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 2: so because there are the opposition groups that exist outside 413 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:44,360 Speaker 2: of the country, like MK and the monarchists have been 414 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 2: have had these sort of aggressive, radical, sort of fringe supporters, 415 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 2: I can actually understand why the White House would be 416 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 2: hesitant to put their weight behind in any of these groups. 417 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 1: Now it wasn't clearly any of them had any ties 418 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,199 Speaker 1: inside the country, right Hasn't that always been the big 419 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,360 Speaker 1: criticism of both the monarchists and the MKA. 420 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 2: Exactly, And people I speak to inside so like you know, 421 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 2: proper Iranians, born bred, fought through on the ground, they 422 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 2: always say, our leader needs to be somebody who has 423 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 2: been here and suffered with us, suffered through this, bought 424 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 2: the regime with us. Now Paul Levy's name was being 425 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,119 Speaker 2: shouted in the streets in the sense that it was 426 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 2: they were saying, Java Shaw, so long live the show. 427 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:39,120 Speaker 2: So it's like a invoking of this you know, pre 428 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 2: Islamic Revolution era and nostalgia. 429 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 1: What you're saying is it shouldn't be read as this 430 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 1: guy who's claiming to be the Shaw, that somehow there's 431 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,360 Speaker 1: a popular support for him exactly. 432 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 2: And to be fair to him, he has continuously said 433 00:25:55,240 --> 00:26:00,200 Speaker 2: that I see myself as a transitional figure. I want to, 434 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 2: you know, go in and facilitate free and fair elections 435 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 2: that you know, people insider Iran decide who they want 436 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 2: to be their candidates, and they decide who they want 437 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:15,119 Speaker 2: to be their leaders. And now he has made quite 438 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 2: a few big moves in the past couple of days actually, 439 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 2: and one of them is Shirin Ebadhi is kind of 440 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 2: leading the Justice Council, and so he has created this 441 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 2: sort of coalition of people who have who have real 442 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,439 Speaker 2: kind of experience and support on the ground, like Shirin 443 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 2: Ebadi does have support on the ground. And in fact, 444 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,880 Speaker 2: I have to say The only reason we are here today, 445 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,239 Speaker 2: that we are actually talking about the end of the 446 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 2: Islamic Republic as a reality is because of the women 447 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,679 Speaker 2: of Iran who paved and lay paved the way and 448 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 2: laid the ground work. They're the only ones who have 449 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 2: actually brought real change and have feeded the Islamic republican anyway, 450 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, when Massa Amoni was killed because 451 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,959 Speaker 2: of her stray hairs and mind you, you know, like 452 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 2: in Iran as women, I mean, last time I was 453 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 2: there was two thousand and seven. Your existence as a 454 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:22,160 Speaker 2: woman in Iran is rebellion and resistance. Every single woman, 455 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,920 Speaker 2: I mean, as long if you're not a husband a right. 456 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 2: And what we were then finding is that when this 457 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 2: uprising happened, when people poured into the streets, people were 458 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 2: like Hijabi women were walking with the women without their 459 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:44,679 Speaker 2: hit job. Because it's about choice, It's about freedom of choice. 460 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,679 Speaker 2: I want to wear my hit job, but if my 461 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,880 Speaker 2: sister doesn't want to wear her hit job, she shouldn't 462 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,640 Speaker 2: have to. And what ended up happening is women stopped 463 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 2: wearing the hit job. If they didn't feel like it, 464 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 2: they just stopped wearing it. They said screw the law, 465 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 2: shoot me, shoot me dead. And the Iranian regime ruled 466 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 2: by fear. So once they lost control of the women, 467 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 2: they lost power. They didn't have to change the law formally, 468 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:15,439 Speaker 2: the women changed it for them. And so you know, 469 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,879 Speaker 2: Pa Leve's made a really smart move by bringing shen 470 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:24,359 Speaker 2: a body kind of in the fold. But in terms 471 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 2: of any sort of regime change, it would either be 472 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:34,160 Speaker 2: Pa Leve or it would be Trump wanting to pull 473 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,199 Speaker 2: a Venezuela. And the only person that that could, like 474 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 2: the only This sounds weird. I've said it before on 475 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 2: air and people have kind of come at me in 476 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 2: the comments, but when you think about it, he is 477 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 2: really the only option because he's sort of so sidelined 478 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 2: and not taken seriously inside that the sort of US 479 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 2: intelligence apparatus could work him to their advantage. And that's 480 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 2: messued position. Chion. 481 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 1: Well, you had said this to me, almost said he 482 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: sees himself this way. You think, right, it's like he 483 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 1: could be the gorbutt and you I think he used 484 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:06,720 Speaker 1: the line with me and I quoted you to a 485 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 1: lot of people like, Hey, this this this Iranian president 486 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: sort of like is not is being treated like a 487 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: figurehead right by the by the regime more so than 488 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 1: than we've seen with previous Iranian presidents, and that he's 489 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 1: fashion You thought he was fashioning himself almost as a 490 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: as the Gorbatrough transitional figure. 491 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 2: And the reason why I thought that was because in 492 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 2: that sort of last week of December, when the protests 493 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 2: were really kickoff and the media hadn't really picked up 494 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 2: yet because it was all the days. Frankly, he did 495 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,719 Speaker 2: an interview but it was like posted on the Supreme 496 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 2: Leader's website and he effectively kind of cited with the protesters. 497 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 2: That was what I picked up on. That was what 498 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 2: caught my eye. And what was it last week March 499 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 2: the weekend of March eighth, he came out and said, 500 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,719 Speaker 2: you know, we shouldn't have hit our neighbors. And then 501 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 2: the IOGC turned around and hit Dubai again and said, no, 502 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 2: messag Position is the one who made the mistakes. So 503 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 2: you're seeing that split. So he's kind of trying to 504 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 2: assert his he's trying to assert himself and the ERGS 505 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 2: is like IOGC is like, yeah, no, that's not happening. 506 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: So I mean you think that, you know, basically, you 507 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 1: look around the room and if you, you know, for 508 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 1: some reason the regime does fall and you need a 509 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: transitional figure, he might actually be the best candidate. 510 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 2: He's the only one. I wouldn't say he's the best. 511 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 2: I think he's the only one. 512 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 1: Well, that makes him the best, exactly. It's a contest 513 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 1: of one. 514 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 2: What I'm surprised nobody's talking about him, and I'm surprised 515 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 2: about this, and like, where is he is? Javad Zariff, 516 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 2: the former foreign minister, the regime's charmer in chief. 517 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 1: Oh, him and John Carry seemed like we're, you know, 518 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 1: long lost buddies every time they got together. Is he 519 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: dead or alive? He's we assume he's alive, right, I 520 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 1: assume he's alive. 521 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 2: But he was. He was very much sidelined when the 522 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 2: kind of hardline government came back in uh and they're 523 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 2: ahead of that. There were lots of talks with him 524 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 2: having presidential ambitions. Now I've I've met Zariff many times, 525 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 2: been in touch with him many times, and he's very charming. 526 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 1: I've spent some time very charming. 527 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:33,479 Speaker 2: Ya. Yes, well, he's very good at public diplomacy, right, 528 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 2: he was really good at, you know, frankly using us 529 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 2: to his advantage. I mean, they sold that nuclear deal. 530 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 2: They sold it to the American public. It's a peace deal. 531 00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 2: It wasn't a piece of deal. It said lots of 532 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 2: money to the proxies in the region that we are 533 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 2: now seeing reaping the benefits of that deal. Like that 534 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 2: is that's that's what's happen in here. But we haven't 535 00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 2: heard from him, and I'm surprised we haven't heard from him, 536 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 2: and I feel like we should keep an eye out 537 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 2: for him. But the thing about Posishkion is, I mean, 538 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 2: mind you, so, Venezuela is a difficult one to kind 539 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 2: of compare it to because I mean, this is this 540 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 2: is an Islamic republic that literally exists to be at 541 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 2: war with the US. They exist as a revolutionary state 542 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 2: to fight and be a resisting force for Western imperialism 543 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 2: led by America, and without America as an enemy, the 544 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 2: Islamic Republic is no longer relevant. So if the war ends, 545 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,479 Speaker 2: what is the Islamic Republic? So like, if they declare 546 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 2: peace with the US and say we're no longer at war, 547 00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 2: what is the Islamic Republic? In order for there to 548 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 2: be real regime. 549 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 1: Change, you can't imagine there's no deal, So this is 550 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 1: you know, I'm trying to you know, I'm trying to 551 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 1: put myself as best I can in Trump's shoes and 552 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 1: understanding how he thinks and how he works, and he's 553 00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 1: going to want he I know he wants this. I 554 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 1: mean he's all but signaled this publicly, barely. Like I 555 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: joked that he's he'd be fun to play poker with 556 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,800 Speaker 1: because he tells you everything you need and he literally 557 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 1: turns his cards the other way so you can see them. 558 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 1: He wants to get out of this. He's desperate to 559 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 1: get out of this. But it doesn't sound like there's 560 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,640 Speaker 1: a deal to be cut that can be trusted, right, 561 00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 1: because if the regime cuts a deal, what's that deal 562 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 1: look like? Any deal that keeps the regime in place, 563 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 1: that's a win for the regime and a loss for 564 00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:50,200 Speaker 1: the United States, is it not? 565 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 2: I mean, you the key word here is trust. How 566 00:33:56,280 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 2: can we trust Obama made a deal in good faith 567 00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 2: with the Islamic Republic. I remember after this deal was reached, 568 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 2: I was speaking to an official who was part of 569 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 2: the negotiations, and he said, don't you think this will 570 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 2: lead to reforms? Like they genuinely believed that this would 571 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 2: lead to reforms. They genuinely believed they would release all 572 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,960 Speaker 2: of this sanctions money and it would go to the 573 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 2: people and you know that they would make life better, 574 00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 2: and you know, I find it sweet. But it did though, 575 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 2: to be fair, it did actually it did need to 576 00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 2: reform because it exposed the corruption of the government because 577 00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 2: they were like, hey, don't we can't blame the Americans 578 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 2: anymore because they sent us all this money. 579 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 1: Where is it now? I remember talking with somebody inside 580 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 1: Obama world who was a bit more of a realist 581 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:55,040 Speaker 1: about Iran wasn't as and and was trying to make 582 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 1: the case that Obama wasn't a real He didn't. This 583 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 1: wasn't a that it wasn't blind faith here. But the 584 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,840 Speaker 1: argument that was made to me of like, look, you 585 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,919 Speaker 1: know why we have to do this deal in order 586 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 1: to then have a rationale if we have to go militarily, 587 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: we have to prove demo diplomacy failed. We have to 588 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,839 Speaker 1: prove that they couldn't keep their work. We have to prove, 589 00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 1: but we have to you have to give it, you know. 590 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 1: That was the explanation, Like why are you doing this 591 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 1: bad deal? I'm sorry. I think for a lot of 592 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 1: us thought it was like, huh, okay, this this, this 593 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,879 Speaker 1: seems like they're getting a lot for very you know, 594 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:39,200 Speaker 1: for very little reforms in return. And that was the 595 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,080 Speaker 1: That was the spin I got, which I would count 596 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,760 Speaker 1: as realistic spin because it was from somebody who themselves 597 00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,600 Speaker 1: was a skeptic of the deal and yet was charged 598 00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 1: with having to with havingue but believed that larger idea 599 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 1: that hey, you have to you have to try this. 600 00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,239 Speaker 1: You can't say you can't go to war and say 601 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,640 Speaker 1: we didn't because you almost have to prove that diplomacy 602 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:08,600 Speaker 1: isn't going to work. And yet here we are. 603 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,360 Speaker 2: So you know how Trump said that he spoke to 604 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,040 Speaker 2: a former president who said he wished he'd done it, 605 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,319 Speaker 2: who wish he wish he'd been able. 606 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 1: Well, you know, the joke is that, remember he's technically 607 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,840 Speaker 1: a former president. Yes, he may exactly, he may have 608 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:26,400 Speaker 1: just been having a conversation in the mirror with himself 609 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:31,720 Speaker 1: forty five, you know, the forty fifth president was speaking 610 00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,280 Speaker 1: with the forty seventh president. Issue. 611 00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:41,239 Speaker 2: True, that's true. But Obama has said he wishes he'd 612 00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 2: done something when the two thousand and nine Green movement 613 00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:50,760 Speaker 2: uprising happened, and many believe that he didn't do anything 614 00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:54,279 Speaker 2: because he had an eye on a nuclear deal. So 615 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 2: that was two thousand and nine. By twenty thirteen, the 616 00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 2: kind of secret talks were revealed that James Sullivan was doing, 617 00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 2: and then by twenty fifteen we had a nuclear deal. 618 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 1: Look, I you know, I think you know that's you know, 619 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 1: when you play these what if games, and I love 620 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,040 Speaker 1: to do them, it's sort of alternative histories and and 621 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 1: you know, what if we had done this, and what 622 00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 1: if we had done that. I generally think though that 623 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,479 Speaker 1: the mindset of you better try to plum, you better 624 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:29,560 Speaker 1: exhaust diplomacy in the United States, I've always argued has 625 00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:33,080 Speaker 1: to get caught, always exhausting diplomacy. When you were the 626 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,680 Speaker 1: biggest fish in the sea, or you're the big you 627 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,920 Speaker 1: know that, then you should you do it. You actually 628 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,280 Speaker 1: have the luxury to exhaust the diplomacy, not every entity. 629 00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 1: Does you know, they don't happen. Do you think security? 630 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,120 Speaker 2: Do you think to be fair to Trump? Then that 631 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:56,680 Speaker 2: he I mean, he's basically stuck with what was eventually 632 00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,160 Speaker 2: going to have to happen. Anyway. 633 00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,279 Speaker 1: Oh, I have been I have been a believer. I 634 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,400 Speaker 1: used to I was half joking. I'm like, you know, 635 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,720 Speaker 1: I said, you know, I Kamala Harris gets elected president, 636 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,279 Speaker 1: you know her first crisis is going to be when 637 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,040 Speaker 1: she has to bomb around And I say, has to, 638 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,400 Speaker 1: meaning like this, There's going to be a moment where 639 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,400 Speaker 1: Israel's going to test and it's like, well, Jesus, you 640 00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,880 Speaker 1: can't have Israel do it by themselves. And and it 641 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,040 Speaker 1: was like, I think I always viewed it as inevitable 642 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:29,160 Speaker 1: that the next president was going to either voluntarily do 643 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 1: this or get dragged into doing this. But either way, 644 00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:35,080 Speaker 1: something was amiss. I think when we look back at 645 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,560 Speaker 1: mistakes Trump made, ripping up the nuclear deal was a mistake. 646 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,359 Speaker 1: Proving that they were failing at the nuclear deal would 647 00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,440 Speaker 1: have been a better way to go about this, right, 648 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,040 Speaker 1: Like how they how they ended the deal. I'm not 649 00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 1: saying the deal was a good deal. How they how 650 00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:57,360 Speaker 1: the deal was ended though, got lost America and the 651 00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:58,280 Speaker 1: Westson high Ground. 652 00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:05,440 Speaker 2: The problem now, though, is that there listen, there's a 653 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:09,719 Speaker 2: lot of room for improvement with President Trump, which is 654 00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:18,719 Speaker 2: putting in politely. That being said, I worry, particularly from 655 00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:24,320 Speaker 2: the perspective of the Iranian people, that the Western media, 656 00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:32,160 Speaker 2: European media especially, it almost doesn't want Trump to succeed 657 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 2: in this at the expense of the Iranian people, because there. 658 00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,400 Speaker 1: Is some there's some blind anti Trump. I know exactly 659 00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,440 Speaker 1: what you mean. There's some of this blind that's almost 660 00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,960 Speaker 1: like there's and you do you do wonder It's like, 661 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,920 Speaker 1: you know, I don't want Trump to fail. I think 662 00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:51,239 Speaker 1: he's made some fatal mistakes, and I you know, our 663 00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 1: job is to point out the mistakes he's made. But 664 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,960 Speaker 1: I I don't think you're wrong. There's this they're they're 665 00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:00,000 Speaker 1: almost sometimes some of the coverage, and You're right, particularly 666 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,719 Speaker 1: the European side comes across it like, you know, we 667 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:04,480 Speaker 1: got to prove you know, I hope he fails so 668 00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 1: we can prove we were right. 669 00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:10,040 Speaker 2: Well in the as you know, warfare has many facets. 670 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,680 Speaker 2: Information warfare is a major part of that, and the 671 00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:16,319 Speaker 2: Iranian regime is winning. I mean, I feel like I'm 672 00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,840 Speaker 2: the one woman kind of fact mission back checking machine 673 00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,240 Speaker 2: at this point where I'm having sources inside around message 674 00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 2: me and say I can't believe Trump said that Iranians 675 00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,080 Speaker 2: are genetically inferior. I'm like, no, this is the clip 676 00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,680 Speaker 2: that has been kind of cut off strategically at the 677 00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,959 Speaker 2: end to make it sound like not that talking about 678 00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,799 Speaker 2: people being genetically inferior is okay, But do you see 679 00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,359 Speaker 2: what I mean? They sort of like take the they 680 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:43,360 Speaker 2: take the most problematic parts of things that Trump says, 681 00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,719 Speaker 2: and they work it to their advantage. And that is 682 00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,360 Speaker 2: what's happening inside Iran right now, or the redrawing of 683 00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,480 Speaker 2: the maps. And you know, when he's not addressing the 684 00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,640 Speaker 2: Iranian people directly, I mean I've been trying to get 685 00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:56,399 Speaker 2: an interview with him. I'm saying, you need to speak 686 00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,920 Speaker 2: to somebody who is Iranian American, who they trust, the 687 00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,760 Speaker 2: Iranian people trust. I mean, half the battle is winning 688 00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,600 Speaker 2: the hearts and minds of the Iranian people inside. Do 689 00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,440 Speaker 2: you want them to almost be fighting with you, alongside you? 690 00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,279 Speaker 2: And at first, I mean I had somebody message me 691 00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:13,560 Speaker 2: when the bomb started, saying, when this is over, they're 692 00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,720 Speaker 2: going to be erecting a statue of Trump in Azadi 693 00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 2: Square in Tehran. And now that sentiment is starting to 694 00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,279 Speaker 2: shift because he's saying things like, oh, the map of 695 00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,040 Speaker 2: Iran is not going to look the same after this, 696 00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,640 Speaker 2: and you know, stuff like that, and that's really not 697 00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:28,640 Speaker 2: going down will. 698 00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:33,920 Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 699 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,200 Speaker 1: by Soul. 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Right now, 723 00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,359 Speaker 1: Soul is offering my audience thirty percent off your entire order. 724 00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,360 Speaker 1: Go to getsoul dot com and use the word podcast 725 00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:02,719 Speaker 1: that's getsol dot com promo code podcast for thirty percent off. 726 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:08,640 Speaker 1: And yes, I too, am a customer. The other thing is, 727 00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,520 Speaker 1: I don't think he is either getting the information or 728 00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:17,040 Speaker 1: processing the information about the difficulty of this right and 729 00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,319 Speaker 1: how you know, it does sound like he was. I mean, look, 730 00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:24,600 Speaker 1: General Kine went on a for him, was a pr 731 00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:30,360 Speaker 1: blitz about a week before the bombing started, just making 732 00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,840 Speaker 1: sure everybody understood how hard this was going to be 733 00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,400 Speaker 1: and that this wasn't going to be Venezuela and that 734 00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:41,160 Speaker 1: this wasn't going to And it sounds like, I mean, 735 00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,880 Speaker 1: I can just picture Trump. It looks like the story 736 00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:48,480 Speaker 1: being that he was warned about the straight of horn 737 00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,280 Speaker 1: moves and he's now kind of admitting sure, I was warned, 738 00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,560 Speaker 1: but you know, he just assumed the regime would fold. 739 00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:59,120 Speaker 1: And I don't know whether that was people telling him 740 00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:00,919 Speaker 1: what he wanted to hear in order to get him 741 00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:06,880 Speaker 1: to the yes on launching the strikes, or whether we 742 00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:10,239 Speaker 1: had intelligence to indicate that this was possible. What's your 743 00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:10,799 Speaker 1: sense on this? 744 00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:15,960 Speaker 2: I mean, so, from what I know about people who 745 00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:20,360 Speaker 2: have negotiated difficult things like North Korea, on Trump's behalf, 746 00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:28,840 Speaker 2: he is somebody who makes decisions intuitively, and we're hearing 747 00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:33,080 Speaker 2: that kind of backed up by Caroline Levitt and himself 748 00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:38,680 Speaker 2: Trump himself. Bye. They continuously say, you know, Trump had 749 00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:42,399 Speaker 2: a feeling or I'll do this when I feel it, 750 00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:44,000 Speaker 2: and so or even. 751 00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:47,440 Speaker 1: Like Tulsa Gabbard's statement, you know, he determined Aron was 752 00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:48,240 Speaker 1: an imminent threat. 753 00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,480 Speaker 2: Although okay, So I got asked about Joe Kent on 754 00:44:53,560 --> 00:45:00,160 Speaker 2: air yesterday, and so I'm a bit confused about him 755 00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:05,120 Speaker 2: because previous statements have said Iran is a threat, Iran 756 00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,560 Speaker 2: is an eminent threat, Iran needs to be neutralized. Mind you, 757 00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:13,760 Speaker 2: you know his wife was killed in Iraq. I believe 758 00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:19,200 Speaker 2: it was Iraq, his first wife. And now once this 759 00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,759 Speaker 2: resignation came out and you know, the media is calling 760 00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:23,759 Speaker 2: it a wartime to defection, and that's kind of how 761 00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:30,040 Speaker 2: it's being spun. People are saying that he's being influenced 762 00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,520 Speaker 2: by his new wife, who works for a kind of 763 00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,839 Speaker 2: outlet that's sympathetic to the Iranians. And so I think 764 00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:45,640 Speaker 2: this all plays into the information warfare that the Iranians 765 00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:47,960 Speaker 2: like that just that just a hand of them like 766 00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,120 Speaker 2: yet another win, because it's like, oh, look, the Americans 767 00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:56,360 Speaker 2: don't have it together and we're starting to see wartime defections, 768 00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,960 Speaker 2: and the Iranians are baiting Trump into putting boots on 769 00:45:59,960 --> 00:46:03,520 Speaker 2: the ground, which is an absolutely horrible idea and should 770 00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:07,120 Speaker 2: absolutely not happen. Special forces operations to bust out the 771 00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:10,600 Speaker 2: prisoners from Eavin. Sure, boots on the ground, no way, 772 00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:11,759 Speaker 2: all right, but how do. 773 00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:15,080 Speaker 1: You secure the straight if how do you secure the 774 00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,480 Speaker 1: straight without boots on the shoreline? 775 00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,839 Speaker 2: I knew this. I wouldn't be here right now to right. 776 00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,680 Speaker 1: No, I mean, I think this is where I think 777 00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,600 Speaker 1: he got himself into it. What I've been calling a 778 00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:32,080 Speaker 1: you know, quicksand or a Chinese finger trap, because you know, 779 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:37,480 Speaker 1: we're in this situation now the United States is why 780 00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:41,200 Speaker 1: we're here and well, ultimately it's the Iranian regime is 781 00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:44,120 Speaker 1: why we're here. But let's in the current moment. Why 782 00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,800 Speaker 1: is the Straight not navigable at the moment, It's because 783 00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,440 Speaker 1: of actions by the United States. So in theory it 784 00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:54,799 Speaker 1: is our responsibility. And I don't know how you can't 785 00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:58,080 Speaker 1: do it with their power and naval power alone. You know, 786 00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:01,279 Speaker 1: you cannot guarantee one hundred percent safety with without that. 787 00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,960 Speaker 1: So it is one of those where tactically you're going 788 00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:05,560 Speaker 1: to have to have some boots on the ground. 789 00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,440 Speaker 2: Now do you mean get the Marines on harg Island? 790 00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:10,839 Speaker 1: Well, I think this is where we're you know, this 791 00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,839 Speaker 1: is you know, this is the mission creep fear right, 792 00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:15,880 Speaker 1: But this is how these things happen. Nobody wants to 793 00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,080 Speaker 1: put boots on the ground. You do it because you 794 00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:21,960 Speaker 1: think there's no other choice. And I think now, so 795 00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,440 Speaker 1: if you think there's no other choice to open the Straight, 796 00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,880 Speaker 1: you say, that's a disaster. If it's to keep the 797 00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,280 Speaker 1: Straight open, you know, what do the Golf States want? 798 00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,239 Speaker 1: What do the you know, do they? And this is 799 00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,000 Speaker 1: where there's some confusion. In fact, I just I'm rambling here. 800 00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,279 Speaker 1: So let me actually put a pin in this and 801 00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:43,880 Speaker 1: let's move to the Golf States. Did MBS push Trump 802 00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,319 Speaker 1: to do this or not? And I say that because 803 00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,719 Speaker 1: there was this high profile Washington Post story that indicated 804 00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:52,759 Speaker 1: that was the case. Now you've got whether it's a 805 00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:57,040 Speaker 1: billionaire and cutter or the UAE making it pretty clear 806 00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:58,560 Speaker 1: that they did and this is not what they were 807 00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:05,160 Speaker 1: looking for. Do we think the Gulf State sent a 808 00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:10,799 Speaker 1: mixed message to the administration. This is a case where yeah, 809 00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,799 Speaker 1: they were all for it if they thought they could 810 00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,520 Speaker 1: get it done, and now that this isn't working, they're like, well, geez, 811 00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:19,400 Speaker 1: I don't want my fingerprints on this. Now, what's what's 812 00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:24,160 Speaker 1: your understanding of? You know? Essentially, what did the UAE 813 00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:28,000 Speaker 1: in Saudis want here? And were they supportive until they 814 00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:29,759 Speaker 1: weren't or were they always skeptical? 815 00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:36,200 Speaker 2: So the story that isn't being talked about is that 816 00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,120 Speaker 2: in the lead up to this, the Saudis and the 817 00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:42,640 Speaker 2: Amorants were beefing, right. 818 00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:46,080 Speaker 1: They still they were. They're in a proxy war in 819 00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:47,279 Speaker 1: Africa right now, aren't they. 820 00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:51,520 Speaker 2: Their relationship with starting to deteriorate, much like in the 821 00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:56,919 Speaker 2: twenty seventeen GCC blockade era when Katar was in the doghouse, right, 822 00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:02,520 Speaker 2: And so now with the UA getting hit so hard, 823 00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:08,160 Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia is not getting hit as hard as the UA. 824 00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:15,759 Speaker 2: It's not. And my source is my Marati sources have 825 00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:19,120 Speaker 2: noted that to me and have said, you know, I 826 00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,840 Speaker 2: don't understand why Saudi is not getting hit like we 827 00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:27,879 Speaker 2: are when they were for the strikes. So there is this, 828 00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:32,120 Speaker 2: at least from the Imarati side, there is this sense 829 00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:34,959 Speaker 2: that the Saudis were pro the strikes. 830 00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,399 Speaker 1: What are the the way the Iranians are behaving that's 831 00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:42,400 Speaker 1: not the case. Or are the Iranians afraid to engage Saudi? 832 00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,320 Speaker 2: Remember that China brokeer the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, 833 00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:51,879 Speaker 2: So I think that's playing a part. I think that's 834 00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:55,600 Speaker 2: playing apart. I think China, we haven't really I mean, 835 00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:59,319 Speaker 2: so Trump did end up postponing the summit, didn't he 836 00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:00,919 Speaker 2: his trip to China? 837 00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:01,759 Speaker 1: Right? 838 00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,560 Speaker 2: So I think I think. I think in the next 839 00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:09,239 Speaker 2: week or so, we'll probably see. I would expect we 840 00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:14,000 Speaker 2: would see. I think China's role might become a bit 841 00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:14,480 Speaker 2: more clear. 842 00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:17,520 Speaker 1: What do you expect them to play a sort of 843 00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:22,200 Speaker 1: a diplomatic role with with trying to bring the Iranians, 844 00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,279 Speaker 1: you know, sort of almost being a proxy for the 845 00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,840 Speaker 1: Iranians to bring them to the table to do a ceasefire. 846 00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:31,840 Speaker 1: Is that what you expect? 847 00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:34,480 Speaker 2: I mean, I think that that. I wouldn't be surprised 848 00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:39,320 Speaker 2: if they try that. You know, they they brokeered the 849 00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:42,680 Speaker 2: the kind of detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, So 850 00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:46,120 Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if China tries that now. At 851 00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:49,800 Speaker 2: the same time, like again, the regime can't stay in place. 852 00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:53,120 Speaker 2: It just it can't stay unless it can't stay in 853 00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:58,359 Speaker 2: place unless it's a complete you know, lay down our arms. 854 00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:00,880 Speaker 2: We are at peace, like no more death to America, 855 00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:01,760 Speaker 2: like we're friends. 856 00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,000 Speaker 1: But as you just said, like they don't have an 857 00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:06,960 Speaker 1: identity without fighting the West. I mean, and this, I 858 00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:10,400 Speaker 1: think this has always been the hardest thing to explain 859 00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:14,760 Speaker 1: to some some of some parts of the American audience, 860 00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:20,160 Speaker 1: where look this regime, you know, and you know they 861 00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,600 Speaker 1: don't like to hear these we're in a battle for this, 862 00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,920 Speaker 1: you know, for this is a cultural war as much 863 00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:30,080 Speaker 1: as anything else. But it kind of is right, and 864 00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:38,319 Speaker 1: it's a we we we we view everybody through the 865 00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:41,399 Speaker 1: prism of how we see the world. And our pluralism 866 00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:47,200 Speaker 1: and and our idealism, and we we can't fathom that 867 00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:51,240 Speaker 1: that there are literally almost a suicidal theocracies out there, 868 00:51:51,880 --> 00:51:53,480 Speaker 1: you know, that don't And I think Trump has a 869 00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:57,040 Speaker 1: hard time processing this. I think Trump assumes everybody's motivated 870 00:51:57,080 --> 00:52:00,279 Speaker 1: by the thing He's motivated for money, fame, and power, 871 00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:01,719 Speaker 1: and that ultimately. 872 00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:06,000 Speaker 2: Americans in general, I think this is an American phenomenon. 873 00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:09,799 Speaker 2: I think we have difficulty wrapping our head around the 874 00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:13,520 Speaker 2: fact that people there are people out there who hate 875 00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,360 Speaker 2: us just because we are like they exist. 876 00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:19,480 Speaker 1: Because right we think we're decadent, you know, and that 877 00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:23,680 Speaker 1: we we are too materialistic, and this is why you know, 878 00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:28,080 Speaker 1: civilization is on the downslope, et cetera. Right like, and look, 879 00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:31,360 Speaker 1: whether there's a portion of that, there's actually a portion 880 00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:35,600 Speaker 1: of that mindset that fuels the Mega movement ironically domestically. 881 00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,800 Speaker 1: And so that's what actually makes me sometimes frustrated with 882 00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:42,000 Speaker 1: Trump that he doesn't understand the Iranian theocracy when like, dude, 883 00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:47,120 Speaker 1: you're part of your your your some of your followers 884 00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:50,560 Speaker 1: view you as the head of a future theocracy, even 885 00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:54,320 Speaker 1: if you don't actually believe the own your own messages 886 00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:55,360 Speaker 1: that you're selling. 887 00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:58,239 Speaker 2: But this is why I find it so ironic when 888 00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:03,360 Speaker 2: you see people, you know, protesting or mourning the death 889 00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,960 Speaker 2: of the Supreme Leader. I mean, the Supreme Leader. His 890 00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:12,600 Speaker 2: whole ethos was death to America, which means death to Americans. 891 00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:17,040 Speaker 2: But of course it's so hypocritical because you know, these 892 00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,600 Speaker 2: these people preach death to America and try to ban 893 00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:25,200 Speaker 2: everything American and Western, and yet they partake in it themselves. 894 00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:27,960 Speaker 2: I mean, one time I was texting with a source 895 00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:31,879 Speaker 2: who is close to this now diseased Supreme Leader, I mean, 896 00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:37,120 Speaker 2: like he's in the inner Circle, and I mentioned I 897 00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:40,399 Speaker 2: referenced something he had said, and he said, I didn't 898 00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:43,440 Speaker 2: say that, and I'm like, yes, you did. And it 899 00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:45,400 Speaker 2: comes back and he says, oh, I must have been drunk. 900 00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:49,680 Speaker 1: Oh really, I didn't know we were drinking. 901 00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:52,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh yeah, no, there's I mean, that's the thing. 902 00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,920 Speaker 2: This is, like all of the things that are decadent 903 00:53:55,080 --> 00:54:01,319 Speaker 2: and sinful about America and Western culture they taken themselves. 904 00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:07,400 Speaker 2: Like it's just complete hypocrisy, right, And you know we 905 00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,399 Speaker 2: see in these sort of op hits about like Ali 906 00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:16,279 Speaker 2: Lara Johnny saying, well, you know, he he hated Western ideals, 907 00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,319 Speaker 2: but at the same time was fascinated by them. And so, 908 00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:23,680 Speaker 2: you know, one of the problems for the regime was 909 00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:26,680 Speaker 2: social media. Like social media was kind of the beginning 910 00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:30,160 Speaker 2: of the end for them because they couldn't control the 911 00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:34,280 Speaker 2: narrative anymore. So they could go in and raid people's 912 00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:37,160 Speaker 2: houses and take their satellites and throw them in jail, 913 00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:42,120 Speaker 2: but they couldn't. They couldn't monitor all of the different 914 00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:44,920 Speaker 2: social media channels, like they just couldn't. People were too clever. 915 00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:48,839 Speaker 2: They have VPNs, you know, even though they did sort 916 00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:51,640 Speaker 2: of think they were being clever and create these VPNs 917 00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:54,280 Speaker 2: that were actually IERGC links, So like people were downloading 918 00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,040 Speaker 2: VPNs thinking they're getting around the Internet blackouts and then 919 00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,920 Speaker 2: actually downloading ERGC link to VPNs and that's how they 920 00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:04,560 Speaker 2: catching them. So it's like really diabolical, but still, you know, 921 00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:09,040 Speaker 2: they they couldn't and so like that, the TikTok dances 922 00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:12,680 Speaker 2: and all of the stuff that attracted the Gen Z generation, 923 00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:19,160 Speaker 2: they lost control of that generation, and the kind of 924 00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:24,160 Speaker 2: forcing of Islam on the younger population just completely backfired. 925 00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:30,719 Speaker 1: Well trying to figure out you know, you know, all 926 00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:33,239 Speaker 1: regimes come to an end quickly, but it takes a 927 00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:35,600 Speaker 1: long time for them, for the quick for the quick ending. 928 00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:37,799 Speaker 1: You know, it's like, you know, it's like the joke 929 00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,919 Speaker 1: about bankruptcy. First it happened slowly, then it happens quickly, right. 930 00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:43,439 Speaker 2: And that's but it's not just like unraveling. Right. 931 00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:46,280 Speaker 1: It feels like it's unraveling, but it could still be years, 932 00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:48,640 Speaker 1: not months, not weeks, right, or do you really think 933 00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:52,400 Speaker 1: we're no longer counting in years. We're now finally counting 934 00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:52,840 Speaker 1: in months. 935 00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:57,600 Speaker 2: When you pull a thread, it kind of takes a 936 00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:01,000 Speaker 2: while for it to start to realize unravel But then 937 00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:03,920 Speaker 2: when it unravels, it unravels quickly, right, like when it 938 00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:11,040 Speaker 2: reaches a point where then just disintegrates. And twenty twenty two, So, 939 00:56:11,640 --> 00:56:14,400 Speaker 2: like I said, women had been quietly kind of pulling 940 00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:17,560 Speaker 2: at the very thread of the fabric of the regime, 941 00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:21,360 Speaker 2: which was hijab. It's a pillar of the Islamic Republic. 942 00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:23,880 Speaker 2: Hijab was a pillar of the Islamic Republic because it 943 00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:28,239 Speaker 2: was its most obvious, in your face way of exercising 944 00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:32,520 Speaker 2: control and ruling with fear and the politics of sadness 945 00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:35,680 Speaker 2: by like stripping color of our clothes. I mean, there's 946 00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:39,960 Speaker 2: like there's so much psychological processing and manipulation that goes 947 00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:47,080 Speaker 2: into this. But once that started to unravel quickly after 948 00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:51,280 Speaker 2: a woman life freedom, that's how we reached this point. 949 00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,160 Speaker 2: And so like the fabric, the literal fabric of the 950 00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:59,320 Speaker 2: regime is now falling apart. It's just falling apart. 951 00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:03,720 Speaker 1: We've been speaking for almost an hour and we've barely 952 00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:10,520 Speaker 1: mentioned Israel. Yeah, yeah, in this country. It is the 953 00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:16,560 Speaker 1: driving narrative of this war. Is Israel's role, Israel's you know, 954 00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,520 Speaker 1: just you know, and for Israel, we know, look, they 955 00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,640 Speaker 1: just the decision was made after October seventh, you know, 956 00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:28,320 Speaker 1: no more uneasy piece right that they wanted to try to, 957 00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:32,520 Speaker 1: you know, permanently eliminate Iran's ability to wage proxy war 958 00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:35,640 Speaker 1: against the Israelis right, whether that was destroying Hasbelad, destroying 959 00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:39,040 Speaker 1: a mass and doing what they're doing. I understand the mindset. 960 00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:41,800 Speaker 1: We'll see if I think, we'll see if this is 961 00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,840 Speaker 1: a workable strategy for them. But what is that long 962 00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:51,280 Speaker 1: term impact and what if what is Iran's relations what 963 00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,800 Speaker 1: is a future Iran's relationship, But what are Iranians relationship 964 00:57:55,480 --> 00:58:01,080 Speaker 1: with Israel if indeed the regime falls and you know, 965 00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:03,760 Speaker 1: history is going to I think correctly noteed you know 966 00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:08,200 Speaker 1: as much the Israelis pushed the United States to do this. 967 00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:13,800 Speaker 2: So early September twenty twenty two, a few weeks before 968 00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:16,360 Speaker 2: Massa Amoni was killed in the Woman Life Freedom Uprising 969 00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:19,560 Speaker 2: kicked off, I was in Tel Aviv and I was 970 00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:24,040 Speaker 2: reporting for a documentary that I was hosting on the BBC. 971 00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:28,360 Speaker 2: Got out of the shadows about the covert war between 972 00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:32,600 Speaker 2: Iran and Israel, and before I had just moved to 973 00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:37,160 Speaker 2: Dubai and I took the flight, the direct flight from 974 00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:40,200 Speaker 2: Dubai to Tel Aviv. This was a historic flight because 975 00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:45,760 Speaker 2: the Abraham Accords had just been reached, and you know, 976 00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,120 Speaker 2: it was a very big deal. And I think that 977 00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:52,320 Speaker 2: again to Trump's credit, he doesn't get credit, He does 978 00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:54,480 Speaker 2: not get enough credit for what a big deal the 979 00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:58,120 Speaker 2: Abraham Accords was. You know, it did also happen in 980 00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:00,640 Speaker 2: twenty twenty it was during COVID, like quite a lot 981 00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:06,200 Speaker 2: overshadowed it. But again I think like because of this 982 00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:11,680 Speaker 2: animosity towards Trump, which is often very valid, there's a 983 00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:13,640 Speaker 2: hesitance to give credit. 984 00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:17,640 Speaker 1: Record blind it can blind, right. Trump Trump arrangement syndrome 985 00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:20,720 Speaker 1: is a thing like there is. 986 00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:22,680 Speaker 2: Some truth to it is a thing and so and so. 987 00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:26,360 Speaker 2: But before I took that fight game, source of my 988 00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:29,800 Speaker 2: kind of insider source of mine called me and he 989 00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:36,240 Speaker 2: said worried about called it a miscalculation. He said he 990 00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:39,360 Speaker 2: was really worried about a miscalculation in the Iran Israel 991 00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:42,360 Speaker 2: covert conflict, and that he worried it was going to 992 00:59:42,400 --> 00:59:45,240 Speaker 2: spill out into the open and be a full on 993 00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:50,120 Speaker 2: kinetic war, like bombs dropping out in the open. And 994 00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:51,680 Speaker 2: I and you know, like the thing is like it 995 00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:55,000 Speaker 2: kind of felt that way, like it felt like I 996 00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:57,360 Speaker 2: was in a bit of a tinder box being in Dubai, 997 00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:01,200 Speaker 2: like there was tension. I didn't expect it to be 998 01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:04,680 Speaker 2: woman life freedom truly, and I actually think woman life 999 01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:08,280 Speaker 2: freedom maybe delayed what inevitably ended up being the twelve 1000 01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:15,240 Speaker 2: Day war last year. We kind of distracted. But when 1001 01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:18,560 Speaker 2: I went to Tel Aviv, I sat down with Amir Pardo, 1002 01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:23,280 Speaker 2: former MASADE chief, and got basically what was the closest 1003 01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:30,000 Speaker 2: to an admission on the targeted assassinations program. He was 1004 01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:34,600 Speaker 2: the architect of the targeted assassinations program in Iran, where 1005 01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:40,320 Speaker 2: you know, they started to just assassinate nuclear scientists. The 1006 01:00:40,440 --> 01:00:46,200 Speaker 2: Israeli started to assassinate nuclear scientists in around and when 1007 01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:49,880 Speaker 2: I was there, I was posting on Instagram, which actually 1008 01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:54,600 Speaker 2: got me kind of blacklisted among the influencer circles in Dubai. 1009 01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:58,200 Speaker 2: So even though the UAE had just signed a deal 1010 01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:01,400 Speaker 2: with Israel and you know, you know peace, we're going 1011 01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:05,320 Speaker 2: to be friends and we're going to do deals, people 1012 01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:07,440 Speaker 2: in Dubai we're not happy about it. And largely the 1013 01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:11,760 Speaker 2: Arab population is not happy about their governments doing business 1014 01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:17,280 Speaker 2: with Israel and recognizing Israel. They are not democracies. 1015 01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:20,920 Speaker 1: Yes, the leaders are want to do business with Israel 1016 01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:23,720 Speaker 1: more than the people do right, yes. 1017 01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:27,840 Speaker 2: Very much, and to be with their leaders no, complete opposite. 1018 01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:32,200 Speaker 2: I had people in Iran messaging me on Instagram, dming 1019 01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:34,920 Speaker 2: me on Instagram and saying, please tell the Israelis that 1020 01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:36,280 Speaker 2: we love them. These are not people that I know. 1021 01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:38,280 Speaker 2: I don't know them. These are random people who follow 1022 01:01:38,320 --> 01:01:40,400 Speaker 2: me on Instagram and saw I was in Israel and 1023 01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:43,280 Speaker 2: DMed me and we're like sending me messages in Farsi 1024 01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:45,440 Speaker 2: and voice notes and saying, please tell the Israelis that 1025 01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:48,120 Speaker 2: we have no problem with them, We love them like 1026 01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:51,000 Speaker 2: we want our countries to be friends. You know, our 1027 01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:55,720 Speaker 2: governments are keeping us apart. So I'm saying that because 1028 01:01:56,520 --> 01:02:01,960 Speaker 2: if and when this regime is finished, you know, whatever 1029 01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:04,480 Speaker 2: that whatever the regime turns into, If and when an 1030 01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:07,680 Speaker 2: Islamic republic that lives and breathes death to America, death 1031 01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:14,120 Speaker 2: to Israel no longer exists, yeah, there will be a 1032 01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:17,320 Speaker 2: friendship that goes back to what used to exist. 1033 01:02:17,720 --> 01:02:20,600 Speaker 1: It'll be and it could be you know what you're describing. 1034 01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:23,440 Speaker 1: It's sort of like, you know, if I told Americans 1035 01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:25,520 Speaker 1: in nineteen forty, if I went back into a time machine, 1036 01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:27,840 Speaker 1: I said, you know, two of America's closest allies for 1037 01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:29,880 Speaker 1: a good forty years in the future is going to 1038 01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:33,760 Speaker 1: be Germany and Japan. Well, Americans would have been, what 1039 01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:36,720 Speaker 1: are you talking about? And this could be. I that's 1040 01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:40,960 Speaker 1: my assumption to that fifty years from now, the relationship 1041 01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:43,400 Speaker 1: between Israel and Iran is going to be this incredibly 1042 01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:47,040 Speaker 1: important and tight relationship, and in many ways, instead of 1043 01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:50,120 Speaker 1: being competitors, they might be the co leaders of a 1044 01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:53,400 Speaker 1: thriving Middle East. And it's the Gulf states that are 1045 01:02:53,480 --> 01:02:54,640 Speaker 1: left out in the sidelines. 1046 01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:58,960 Speaker 2: But I think that's why the golf leaders recognize that 1047 01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:01,760 Speaker 2: I think like NBS smart. Whatever people might want to 1048 01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:05,280 Speaker 2: say about him, you know, and his team rights record, 1049 01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:11,480 Speaker 2: he is smart. But also like if these countries were democracies, 1050 01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:17,560 Speaker 2: they would have problems with you know, controlling the population. 1051 01:03:17,920 --> 01:03:19,680 Speaker 2: And there by. 1052 01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:21,040 Speaker 1: The way we have a taste of it. Just look 1053 01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:24,520 Speaker 1: at Turkey or the brief period we had Egypt as 1054 01:03:24,520 --> 01:03:25,880 Speaker 1: a democracy who got elected. 1055 01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:30,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's like it's a it's an uncomfortable part 1056 01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:33,520 Speaker 2: of the conversation, right, but but it has to be said. 1057 01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:36,160 Speaker 2: And I was actually, it's funny you mentioned Japan because 1058 01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:38,080 Speaker 2: I was just in Japan. I hit my I was 1059 01:03:38,080 --> 01:03:42,400 Speaker 2: celebrating my end of my hundred country challenge and and 1060 01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:45,600 Speaker 2: I was thinking, thank you, and I was just thinking 1061 01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:49,040 Speaker 2: about that. I said, you know, like we don't talk 1062 01:03:49,080 --> 01:03:54,960 Speaker 2: about the concept of forgiveness in geopolitics. And that's why 1063 01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:58,800 Speaker 2: I I, you know, the diaspora is very opinionated, and 1064 01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:01,440 Speaker 2: so when I have men like, Okay, what do the 1065 01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:05,800 Speaker 2: options look like for how Iran becomes just a republic 1066 01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:08,600 Speaker 2: and not an Islamic republic? Does that mean there are 1067 01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:11,640 Speaker 2: kind of people who were in the regime who kind 1068 01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:15,240 Speaker 2: of come to the other side. You know, there has 1069 01:04:15,280 --> 01:04:19,200 Speaker 2: to be an element of forgiveness because you know, there 1070 01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:21,800 Speaker 2: was a there was a massacre that everybody who was 1071 01:04:21,880 --> 01:04:26,840 Speaker 2: in the regime is accounted for, right, is accountable for 1072 01:04:27,080 --> 01:04:34,560 Speaker 2: rather But at the same time, you know, like you said, 1073 01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:37,160 Speaker 2: we're friends with Germany and we're friends Japan. We dropped 1074 01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:43,000 Speaker 2: a nuclear bomb on Japan, right, you know, they attacked us, 1075 01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:46,320 Speaker 2: very good friends with them. 1076 01:04:46,680 --> 01:04:49,120 Speaker 1: Probably a lot to learn from the Japanese about forgiveness. 1077 01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:55,720 Speaker 1: It could be the ones really bitter to this day. 1078 01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,320 Speaker 2: And it's not that long ago. I mean, it's still 1079 01:04:57,360 --> 01:04:59,640 Speaker 2: in our it's still in our lifetime and. 1080 01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:03,320 Speaker 1: Like we're alive today exactly exactly. Well, there's no good 1081 01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:06,480 Speaker 1: place to end this conversation because we're in the middle 1082 01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:10,640 Speaker 1: of something. But you know, meaning you know, I know 1083 01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:13,480 Speaker 1: we're not. We're not in any resolution mode here, so 1084 01:05:13,560 --> 01:05:16,320 Speaker 1: it's hard to so I know we're going to be 1085 01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:18,280 Speaker 1: doing it to be continued because I think we I'd 1086 01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:21,400 Speaker 1: love to, you know, I think you know, do you 1087 01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:24,040 Speaker 1: look at this war in two week chunks, in one 1088 01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:28,280 Speaker 1: week chunks and three week chunks, what's your sense of 1089 01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:30,280 Speaker 1: of how you view this. I assume we're running out 1090 01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:33,920 Speaker 1: of targets that are reasonable at this point. 1091 01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:38,080 Speaker 2: So what I've noticed now in the kind of it's 1092 01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:41,920 Speaker 2: moving into the intelligence it's maybe kind of it started 1093 01:05:41,960 --> 01:05:45,280 Speaker 2: on the intelligence front, right, it started as an intelligence war, 1094 01:05:45,880 --> 01:05:48,040 Speaker 2: then it became started as a covert war, that's what 1095 01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:51,200 Speaker 2: my whole documentary is about, and then it moved into 1096 01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:53,680 Speaker 2: a kinetic war. And now I'm starting to see that 1097 01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:56,760 Speaker 2: it's moving sort of back into the cloak and diagres 1098 01:05:56,760 --> 01:06:01,440 Speaker 2: bycraft side of things that's going to be necessary to 1099 01:06:02,520 --> 01:06:06,040 Speaker 2: hip the scale. And I'm saying that because we're starting 1100 01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:08,080 Speaker 2: to see a reporting, you know, the Wall Street Journal 1101 01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:12,960 Speaker 2: how to report of how Mossad is kind of calling 1102 01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:19,840 Speaker 2: individual I er GC members and basically telling them that 1103 01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:23,600 Speaker 2: they're a target. And there's one a quote from one 1104 01:06:23,840 --> 01:06:27,840 Speaker 2: it's a recording, I guess, and what one has said, 1105 01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:31,560 Speaker 2: you know, I'm not your enemy, like I'm a walking 1106 01:06:31,640 --> 01:06:34,920 Speaker 2: dead man. On I'm a walking dead man as it is. 1107 01:06:35,880 --> 01:06:38,560 Speaker 2: And I think it's important for your audience to remember 1108 01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:42,920 Speaker 2: who are the people inside, Like who is the IRGC? 1109 01:06:43,120 --> 01:06:48,160 Speaker 2: What is the IRGC. So you have every young man 1110 01:06:49,080 --> 01:06:52,800 Speaker 2: has to do their military service much like Israel, and 1111 01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,000 Speaker 2: you have to do a couple of years and you 1112 01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:59,080 Speaker 2: have either the artesh the army or the rier GC. 1113 01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,040 Speaker 2: You don't get to choose, you get you get put 1114 01:07:01,080 --> 01:07:03,120 Speaker 2: into either there or in the army. 1115 01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:08,360 Speaker 5: So like you could be a gay, tatted up like 1116 01:07:08,760 --> 01:07:13,960 Speaker 5: rock and roll loving guy and end up having to 1117 01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:17,240 Speaker 5: fight with ye your GC, like you could not believe 1118 01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:19,560 Speaker 5: in any of their Islamic And. 1119 01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:22,240 Speaker 1: What you're saying is you think there isn't an opportunity 1120 01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:28,720 Speaker 1: here where where there's dissension in the ranks. 1121 01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:33,400 Speaker 2: The problem here is again goes back to information. Hearing 1122 01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:35,280 Speaker 2: about the dissension of the ranks is going to be 1123 01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:38,960 Speaker 2: the bigger problem. So I was told that I was 1124 01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:41,640 Speaker 2: told by one of my sources in Iran that, I 1125 01:07:41,680 --> 01:07:46,200 Speaker 2: mean a civilian source that basically everybody thinks much Double 1126 01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:50,360 Speaker 2: is dead. Much Double comedy is the new so called Supremely. 1127 01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:52,480 Speaker 1: There's no proof of life. I mean, I'm sorry, so 1128 01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:55,800 Speaker 1: do I you know everyone? Yeah, I don't think he 1129 01:07:55,920 --> 01:07:58,640 Speaker 1: ever was alive or maybe he was on life support. 1130 01:07:58,840 --> 01:08:02,040 Speaker 2: The statement that he put out, like when you read 1131 01:08:02,080 --> 01:08:05,200 Speaker 2: when you read it, it's very clearly more than one 1132 01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:09,160 Speaker 2: person wrote this statement. There's lots of different there's lots 1133 01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:14,080 Speaker 2: of input. Right now, it turns out he's dead. That 1134 01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:17,719 Speaker 2: is a huge blow for the IRGC because they couldn't 1135 01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:21,240 Speaker 2: protect him. You know, Yes, Ali Laira Johnny is a 1136 01:08:21,280 --> 01:08:25,479 Speaker 2: big is a big one that they've lost. But they 1137 01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:28,639 Speaker 2: couldn't protect mush Tabba. They couldn't protect the Supreme Leader. 1138 01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:32,080 Speaker 2: And the thing is, you know, mush Tabba was always 1139 01:08:33,600 --> 01:08:37,040 Speaker 2: kind of rumored to be the favorite to take over 1140 01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:40,960 Speaker 2: and be the next Supreme Leader. Killing his dad basically 1141 01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:49,280 Speaker 2: good that the eventual, inevitable process, right, And so I 1142 01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:54,760 Speaker 2: think like that's why the PR part of this is 1143 01:08:54,800 --> 01:08:58,400 Speaker 2: so important and the White House really needs to up 1144 01:08:58,400 --> 01:09:01,479 Speaker 2: its game on it. They are not doing a good job. 1145 01:09:01,680 --> 01:09:03,880 Speaker 2: Like it's Persian New Year. What's their plan? 1146 01:09:04,360 --> 01:09:05,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a plan. 1147 01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:07,439 Speaker 2: You know, Like this is a prime opportunity. You know, 1148 01:09:07,439 --> 01:09:10,439 Speaker 2: if if I was White House communications director, I'd be like, 1149 01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:13,519 Speaker 2: all right, we've got thirteen days, you know, like we 1150 01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:16,519 Speaker 2: have like a blast, we have a like who are 1151 01:09:16,600 --> 01:09:20,040 Speaker 2: we talking to, who are we reaching? What's our messaging? 1152 01:09:20,600 --> 01:09:21,960 Speaker 2: You know, like now is the time. 1153 01:09:22,520 --> 01:09:23,800 Speaker 1: There's an opportunity here yet. 1154 01:09:25,240 --> 01:09:27,240 Speaker 2: So that's why, I mean, the intelligence side of this 1155 01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:30,160 Speaker 2: is really important for the next two weeks. 1156 01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:32,400 Speaker 1: Knowing my listeners is on they're going to want more 1157 01:09:32,439 --> 01:09:34,960 Speaker 1: from you before I get you on here again. Where 1158 01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:35,880 Speaker 1: can they find your work? 1159 01:09:37,200 --> 01:09:40,160 Speaker 2: Right? Yes, so we are on substack, Helmet to Heels 1160 01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:45,120 Speaker 2: dot com. And then my podcast is Global Powershifts on YouTube. 1161 01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:49,200 Speaker 2: I co host that with Jim Stenman, a former CNN correspondent, 1162 01:09:49,479 --> 01:09:53,200 Speaker 2: and then I'm on Instagram on Poor World and Helmet 1163 01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:56,080 Speaker 2: to Heels also on Twitter x poor World. 1164 01:09:56,640 --> 01:10:01,000 Speaker 1: Well, and you're a thriving and de pendant journalists, and 1165 01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:05,360 Speaker 1: thank goodness for it. It's not easy being independent. You've 1166 01:10:05,360 --> 01:10:08,840 Speaker 1: got to especially what you're trying to do, travel the world, security, 1167 01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:12,479 Speaker 1: all sorts of stuff. So encourage my my listeners and 1168 01:10:12,479 --> 01:10:15,559 Speaker 1: my wife and viewers to support the work that you're doing. 1169 01:10:16,360 --> 01:10:17,240 Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you. 1170 01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:21,960 Speaker 1: This is exactly how I expected what I expected from 1171 01:10:21,960 --> 01:10:25,519 Speaker 1: this conversation, which which was to learn a lot and 1172 01:10:25,640 --> 01:10:29,280 Speaker 1: understand that make a pact. Yes, ma'am, do. 1173 01:10:29,360 --> 01:10:31,759 Speaker 2: An episode having tea in Tehran. 1174 01:10:32,960 --> 01:10:35,160 Speaker 1: I'd love to do that. I'd love to do that. 1175 01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:37,160 Speaker 1: I'd love to get to Trent. All right, Well, we're 1176 01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:39,639 Speaker 1: going to get there, all right, Susan. This was great, 1177 01:10:39,720 --> 01:10:40,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for the time. 1178 01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:41,479 Speaker 2: Thank you.