1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also. 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing into spect I'm saying 3 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 2: it's your cash touchdown. 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: That we see most gambles when they go to gamble, 5 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: they go to win. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 3: That's incredible, Big Banks, I'm all banks. 7 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 4: I like to make money. 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: All right. This is the ultimate kabash. 9 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 4: You want to pull. 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 5: And we are underway. 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 6: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the Fandel Sportsbook. 12 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 6: I'm your host, Brendan Glashen. I'll get to our guests 13 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 6: in just a second. A week and a half away 14 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 6: from the NFL season kicking off. If you're looking, which 15 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 6: I know you are looking to participate in any NFL 16 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 6: pools this season, this is the episode for you because 17 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 6: this is our annual NFL pool strategy episode. Here with 18 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 6: Action Network, we have Travis Reed of the Action Network 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 6: and NFL pool play expert Jason Lisk from our good 20 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 6: friends at poolgenius dot com. Today we're discussing strategies around 21 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 6: two the most popular types of NFL pools. The two 22 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 6: we're going to discuss survivor pools and pick them pools. 23 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 6: Very excited to dive in. We're going to start Survivor 24 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 6: and will work our way to the pick and pools 25 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 6: down the road. Here we had Action Network love Pool Genius. 26 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 6: We love their products, once again partner with them this year. 27 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 6: That's because they remain the only site dedicated exclusively to 28 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 6: helping people with more pools across all sports, including the 29 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 6: NFL Survivor and pick Them. We love the data the 30 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 6: analytics here at Action Network, and they've spent over a 31 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 6: decade building tools to optimize your picks based on math 32 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 6: game theory data. And their subscribers have reported more than 33 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 6: eight million dollars in pool prize winning since twenty seventeen 34 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 6: and cash in their pools more than three times more 35 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 6: often than expected. Wow, qutos setup Jason Lisk, Why don't 36 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 6: we go to you first? We're discussing two pools, going 37 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 6: to start with Survivor and then we'll work our way 38 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 6: to pick them. How long, Jason, why don't you first 39 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 6: explain to us and tell us how the customizable products 40 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 6: at pool Genius what they can offer to users. 41 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, we have two separate products for football season. We 42 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: have an NFL Survivor product and we have an NFL 43 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 1: and college football pick Them product or the package where 44 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: you get both. So we'll start with Survivor. Survivor is 45 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 1: one where you can enter a lot of different Survivor pools. 46 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: So if you play a lot of entries, if you 47 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: play in different types of Survivor pools, it's really good product. 48 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 1: You get access to up to thirty entry picks each week, 49 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: so those can be across pools. 50 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 2: You then set up each pool. 51 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: You tell us the rules, the size, does it have strikes, 52 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,679 Speaker 1: do you have buybacks? Do you have to make any 53 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: extra picks in a certain week, what's the price structure? 54 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 1: Some pools are different, all those things, because we'll take 55 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: all that into account, like will value maybe your highest 56 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 1: value pool and give you the best pick for that one, 57 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: and we'll give you portfolio picks across the entire spectrum. 58 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: So that Survivor you can set up multiple picks, get 59 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 1: thirty football college NFL combinations, spread game winner, confidence points, 60 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: all that stuff are the customized featured You have. 61 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 2: Unlimited access to pools there. 62 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: You can set up your college pool, you can set 63 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: up your pick five spread pool, and. 64 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: We'll just give different advice. 65 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: You tell us the rules again, how many picks you 66 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: need to make, what games are eligible, points system, all 67 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: that stuff, and so we'll provide customized picks for those. 68 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 5: Love it love it. 69 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 6: So when folks are diving into this, one of the 70 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 6: first questions that comes to mind how long is an 71 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 6: average entry expected to last when it comes to a 72 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 6: survivor pool. As I said, we're going to get to 73 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 6: pick them pools later on. 74 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: I think one of the people like to exaggerate how 75 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: long they last in survivor pools. 76 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 2: If we go by the. 77 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: Public pick data over the last decade, half of all 78 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: entries have been out by the end of week four 79 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: every single year. Wow, under ten percent on average by 80 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: week none, which is now the halfway point, which tells 81 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: you that most entries don't make it through. And so 82 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: your goal should be do I have an entry good 83 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: enough to win it? If I do make it through 84 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: for that second half push, because if you're in a 85 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: pool with one thousand people and ten percent or left, 86 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: that still means you got to be ten one hundred 87 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: other entries, and so you have to be built for 88 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,119 Speaker 1: the long haul in those types of pools. But yeah, 89 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: ten percent, I think last year maybe five out of 90 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: every one thousand entries on average would have gone eighteen 91 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: to zero over the course of the season. 92 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 2: That's about how tough last year was. 93 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 5: Holy cow, Travis. 94 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 6: When you're strategizing for a Survivor pool selection, what is 95 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 6: top priority? 96 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 3: Well, I kind of have a Ricky Bobby mentality if 97 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 3: you're not first or last. And that's kind of like 98 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 3: this idea of Okay, we have to survive week one. 99 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 3: Jason just gave you the numbers. You're most likely going 100 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 3: to be out by week you know four, or if 101 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 3: you have fifty fifty shots be out by week four, 102 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 3: you might get lucky to get into week nine, week ten. 103 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 3: I'm always of the mind said, let me build out. 104 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 3: I'm going to get through the whole season undefeated. How 105 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 3: does that happen? And so I'm willing to take risks. 106 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 3: If that means I lose in week one, that's fine, 107 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 3: But I'm willing to take a lot more gamble I 108 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 3: think in some of these early season matchups than a 109 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 3: lot of people. So I'm looking at, okay, how can 110 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 3: I if I do make it to that week nine 111 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 3: point where there is only one hundred teams left, do 112 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 3: I still have a lot of good teams left down 113 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 3: the stretch to actually make a run at winning the 114 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 3: cash at the end. 115 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 6: So that's your target as far as life, life expectancy, 116 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 6: what is the data? Tell us Jason, as it pertains 117 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 6: to components that you have to consider. 118 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 1: Kind of in line with what Travis said, you want 119 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: to be built. You want to take some chances, and 120 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: so when we take when we say chances and survivor, 121 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,479 Speaker 1: we don't mean taking the Texans as a ten point underdog. 122 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: We mean taking like the team with a sixty five 123 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: percent chance that nobody's picking instead of the eighty. 124 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,119 Speaker 2: Percent that everybody's picking. 125 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: Right, you're taking a chance relative to the field, but 126 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: you're doing so to get leveraged. So the things you 127 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: want to look at are win odds, right, you need 128 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: to know how what the odds are. You typically want 129 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: to take as good a team as you can, but 130 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: you counter that with popularity because you only win pools 131 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: if you make picks others don't make. And so you 132 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,679 Speaker 1: kind of have to balance taking the best win odds 133 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: team with who gives you the leverage on the field. 134 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 1: And then the third element really and an important one, 135 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: especially in larger pools that are going to go deep 136 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: into the year future value. Every team has a different 137 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: value you can only use each team once, and all 138 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: teams are not created equal. The Bills, for example, last year, 139 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: are the Chiefs. They were valuable in a lot of 140 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: different weeks, and so there was a week early, I 141 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: think it was week five the Bills were playing the 142 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 1: Steelers were like a near two touchdown favorite, and over 143 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 1: a third of the pools were taking them. But if 144 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: you're in a pool that you know is going to 145 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 1: go into December, the Bills are going to be huge 146 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: value later when nobody else can pick them, And so 147 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: delaying that gratification on taking the Bills is worth it 148 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: because you got to hit a home run with the Bills. 149 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 2: Some team you just need to get a walk. You 150 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 2: don't want to strike out right you. 151 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: Let's say a team that's middle of the pack Atlanta 152 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: this year in New Orleans. You may be picking them 153 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: at some point and you're just like, get me through. 154 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: So I have the Bills and the Chiefs for a 155 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: future week when I can drop the hammer on you. 156 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 5: Travis, same to you. 157 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 6: When it comes now to rules for specific pools, how 158 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 6: do the rules and you can use whatever example you'd like, 159 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,559 Speaker 6: impact the value of a pick. What are the rules 160 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,239 Speaker 6: to be aware of how are you factoring in rules 161 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 6: to target value. 162 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 3: I think the number one is how many entries are 163 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 3: in total in this contest. Jason brought up to one 164 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 3: thousand person example, But if you're in a pool of ten, 165 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 3: your strategy changes immenseally. You don't have to be nearly 166 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 3: as risky in a ten person pool as a thousand. 167 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 3: That'll makes sense to everybody, but really that's on a scale. 168 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 3: It's one of the things I think pool Genius does 169 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 3: really well. It's like he said, you can just plug 170 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 3: in your exact data and it'll kind of tell you, 171 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 3: it'll wait that for you based on how many numbers, 172 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 3: how many people are in that pool. 173 00:07:58,680 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 4: But there's some other things. 174 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 3: If you can buy in ten times versus buy in once, 175 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 3: there's going to be people in that pool that have 176 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 3: bought in ten times and they're going to have an 177 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 3: edge against you if you just enter that one time. 178 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 3: So you probably want to try to max enter any 179 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 3: contest you can. If that means going down to bet 180 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 3: size because you're not comfortable betting you know, ten times 181 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 3: what you thought you were going to do, that that's 182 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 3: probably going to be better for your equity in the 183 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,559 Speaker 3: long run. Than just entering one shot and other people 184 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 3: have ten, you know, in the exact same tournament that 185 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 3: you're in. So those are two that immediately come to mind, 186 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 3: you have a thing. Some of these are getting weird 187 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 3: now with the weeks I've seen somewhere the Thanksgiving is 188 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 3: a specific week, so there you only have three games, 189 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 3: you have six teams to choose from. You better have 190 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 3: a plan laid out that you're taking one of those 191 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 3: six and hopefully not you know, a seven point underdog 192 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving weeks, so you get kind of squeezed there, 193 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 3: especially how late in the season it is. You really 194 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 3: want to have plans for contests like that. 195 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: Right, we mentioned buy ins, ReBs, buybacks or various terms 196 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: for the same thing. Strikes are similar, but you just 197 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: ought to actually get it without it and pay more. 198 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 1: You want to pay attention to things like does it 199 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: expire and do you have a certain week you have 200 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: to use it by, because then it becomes like, actually 201 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: very strategic if you know, like a striker buyback is 202 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: expiring let's say after the first month, you actually want 203 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,959 Speaker 1: to be very risky, like the week it happens, because 204 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: you're like, why burn a team that has any value 205 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: in the future when you can come back use a 206 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: really bad team. In some cases the multipick situation, similar 207 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: to the Thanksgiving example that Travis just discussed. A lot 208 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 1: of pools I play and will have like weeks in 209 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: the second half of the season where you have to 210 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: make two picks. And the reason they do that typically 211 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: is because they're large pools. Like even though we talked 212 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: about it's really tough to make at the end in 213 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 1: a thousand entry two thousand entry pool, people are making 214 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: it and they're trying to introduce rules that make it 215 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: even harder, so there's less of a pot chop, less 216 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 1: of a split, And so you have to be aware 217 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: of those multi pick weeks. And really the key to 218 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: those is you've got to have two good options. Like 219 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: people like if you had a ninety percent team but 220 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: then you had like a pick them, you're actually in 221 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: worse shape than having just like two seventy percent teams 222 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: in terms of your chances of advancing. 223 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 2: A lot of people won't plan ahead and those weeks 224 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 2: will wipe out those pools. 225 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 5: Okay, good stuff. 226 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 6: As a reminder, pool Genius is extending discounts up to 227 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 6: fifty five percent on Football packages to Action Network listeners, 228 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 6: plus a free trial through NFL Week one, so you 229 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 6: can give all their tools a test drive. 230 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 5: And if you're serious about winning. 231 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 6: Your pools this season, get involved with that and also 232 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 6: just visit poolgenius dot com slash Action, poolgenius dot com 233 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 6: slash Action to sign up. Jason, we know that entering 234 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 6: a pool, and you both have laid this out, there's risk. 235 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 6: When is the right time at a survivor pool to take 236 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 6: bigger risks? And we've hit on some of these examples already, 237 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 6: but speak to that. 238 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: So, first of all, I'll say every year is different, 239 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: and so you really have to play that year and 240 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: the circumstances of each week. But generally speaking, the things 241 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: you want to look for. You want to play unpopular 242 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: teams when their odds aren't that much lower. You want 243 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 1: to try to catch people like when picks are concentrated 244 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: on let's say a favorite or two. And I'll give 245 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: you one example that was one of the key examples. 246 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: In a couple of years ago, there was a week 247 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 1: I think it was twenty twenty, I might have been nineteen. 248 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 2: The Colts were playing the Dolphins. They had one win 249 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:20,319 Speaker 2: on the. 250 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: Year, the Colts were a big favorite. The Saints were 251 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 1: playing the Falcons. The Falcons had one win, the Saints 252 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 1: were a big favorite. This was when Breeze, I think, 253 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: was there still, and both those teams were collectively being 254 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: picked like eighty five percent of the time. Then they 255 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: were the two biggest favorites. But what that did is 256 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: it gave you an opportunity to play against two teams. 257 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,319 Speaker 2: All you needed was one of them to hit to lose, and. 258 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 1: So taking like those four and a half five point 259 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: favorites up against a two touchdown favorite an eleven point 260 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: favorite were actually smart risks to take. And what happened 261 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: was the two big favorites lost and pools were wiped out, 262 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 1: like ninety percent of pools wiped out. We had subscribers 263 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: writing in, I have five of the last seven entries left. 264 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 2: I played the teams you said, I avoid those two. 265 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: I think we had the Bears against the Lions and 266 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: the game nobody wants to pick, right, not a sexy game, 267 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: But those are the opportunities you have to find is 268 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: when can I leverage the right risk for the great reward? 269 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 2: That's what you're looking for. 270 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 6: Okay, And also I took away from that, even if 271 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 6: it's not sexy, get into it. 272 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, early and often avoiding just avoiding the most popular 273 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 3: pick every week is a huge advantage if that's if 274 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 3: that's all you do, if you learned one thing from 275 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 3: the spot, just avoid the most popular team every week 276 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 3: and pick somebody else, because not only do you get 277 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 3: an edge in that week, but also by not using 278 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 3: that team, even if they do win, you have that 279 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:38,679 Speaker 3: team left and they don't in the future, so that 280 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 3: kind of compounds your leverage forward in weeks other But 281 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 3: talking about you know, some games I was looking at 282 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 3: some last year. Heineke beat the Eagles when they were 283 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 3: eleven and a half point favorites. Zach Wilson beat the 284 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 3: Bills when they were ten and a half point favorites. 285 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 4: PJ. 286 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 3: Walker beat the Buccaneers when they were thirteen and a 287 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 3: half point favorites. These games happen every year, it's not 288 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 3: once in a decade type thing. There's going to be 289 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 3: huge upsets, so there's risk on every pick, so you 290 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:07,080 Speaker 3: might as well, you know, fade what everybody else is 291 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 3: doing and try to gain some leverage so if that 292 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 3: does happen again and wipes out a big chunk of 293 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 3: the pool you're able to take advantage of that. 294 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: It goes to the mentality you have to have, right 295 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: if you're in a huge pool, you really have to 296 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: have the mentality, I'm probably not winning this thing. 297 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 2: My odds are really long. If I'm in a thousand 298 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 2: entry pool, my odds are super long. 299 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: So why not take these swings on the outcomes that, 300 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: if they do happen, make massive differences, and then you 301 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: get your pod. 302 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:32,079 Speaker 2: Odds go up quite a bit. 303 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: If eighty percent seventy percent of the pool gets wiped 304 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,439 Speaker 1: out the wind, then you're talking, Oh now, I may 305 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: actually start thinking about one in the same. 306 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 6: Last thing on Survivor before we transition to pick them. 307 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 6: And this is like the psychology of it. So I'm 308 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 6: fascinated how you both respond to this pool behavior, considering 309 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 6: what whether it's nine hundred and ninety nine others or 310 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 6: however many entries there are, what the mindset is of 311 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 6: the other participants. Do participants stay too focused on their 312 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 6: own entry and ignore everybody else? 313 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 2: Yes? Probably. As a general rule, I think it depends 314 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 2: on the type of pool you're in. Like the larger 315 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 2: your entry. 316 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: Fee, there's probably less dead weight that is just like 317 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 1: completely just mailing it in and just picking the team 318 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 1: they want that week. As you pay more money, people 319 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: tend to take it more seriously. But I do think 320 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: the other thing people tend to do is maybe not 321 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: think about the contest overall, like what do I need 322 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: to do to win? They think about what who do 323 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 1: I think will win? Or who do I need to 324 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 1: use for my entry, Like if I know I'm going 325 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 1: to go deep in New England is playing the Bears 326 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: on Monday Night last year, and people are like, I 327 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: got to use New England because they're actually not that great, 328 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: but this is the best. 329 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 2: Matchup, so I need to use them, And a. 330 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: Lot of people decide to do the same thing. They 331 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: aren't thinking outside of themselves because if you're willing to 332 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: counter that move and be like, oh yeah, it would 333 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 1: be nice to use New England, I don't need them 334 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: in the future. But I can also fade New England 335 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: directly because I know everybody else is going to be on, 336 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: And that's like the kind of play you need to 337 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: be second order with, Like can I can I counter 338 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 1: them by using a little bit of future value on 339 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: a on a slightly better team than New England, but 340 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 1: catch a lot of people using that team. That's that's 341 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: kind of like and I think that's behavior we see 342 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 1: is people will think about what's strategically best for them 343 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: in these even when they pay a lot of money, 344 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: but maybe not what's best for the overall contest. 345 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 6: That would have been the right time too, to take 346 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 6: the Bears, because then it went a game after that. 347 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: So that's yeah, that was when Fields. 348 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: I think that's when they first introduced the new offense 349 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: where he started just running the ball everywhere. 350 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 5: Okay, that's a good example, Travis. 351 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 6: Last thought here the pool behavior aspect of survivor. 352 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 3: One thing I see a lot of people do is 353 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 3: they make up these rules for themselves that shouldn't exist. Oh, 354 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 3: I'm never taking a team on the road. I'm never 355 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 3: taking a divisional game. Those are always close. Those are 356 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 3: already baked into the win probability. So to make up 357 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 3: these rules that just eliminate part of the field that 358 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 3: could be good options for you, it's just a huge mistake. 359 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 3: I see that from a lot of beginner players. So 360 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 3: don't do that. Consider everybody you have. You only have 361 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 3: thirty two options, you might as well look at all 362 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 3: of them. Don't start eliminated at half just because they're 363 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 3: on the road. Another thing, I don't see people playing ahead, 364 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 3: even if it's justin pencil, what's your next five, six, 365 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 3: seven weeks look like? If everything you know, if you 366 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 3: do advance, what a lot of times, even if you're 367 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 3: looking at, Okay, what's my most plus EV play this week? 368 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 3: Maybe you need to save them for later anyway, and 369 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 3: you know, use the second most DV play or the 370 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 3: third most DV play and save that team for later 371 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 3: on down the road. Looking at the big picture, even 372 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 3: if you are looking at the Okay, well I'm going 373 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 3: to take this team because it's only five percent owned. 374 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 3: Well yeah, but that team's the Chiefs and you may 375 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 3: need those them in December. All right, what's the next 376 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 3: EV play and go there? 377 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: My wedding planning for christ Absolutely one of the things 378 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: we see in ours like that. I noticed because you know, 379 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: I'm writing every week about like, because when you're playing 380 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: the value game, you're playing against the public. You're playing 381 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: against what most people do. 382 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 2: And one of the other biases we see, besides the 383 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 2: say I don't want to pick our division. 384 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 1: Game teams that just lost the week before, people tend 385 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: to want to avoid them, even if Vegas is telling 386 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 1: us they're an eight point favorite. There's a lot of 387 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: recency bias that you so if you want to play 388 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: the game strategic go a lot of times you're going 389 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: to be uncomfortable because you're going to be fighting those biases. 390 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: You're going to be taking the team nobody wants because 391 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 1: they look bad the week before they turn the ball 392 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: over five times. But Vegas is telling us they're way 393 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: better than the team they're playing this week, and that's 394 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: probably the value play in most pools because everybody else 395 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: wants to not pick them. 396 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 5: Okay, good stuff. 397 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 6: That's your Survivor pool layout, and now a quick word 398 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 6: from our friends at Ticketmaster. More memories are made when 399 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 6: you're there for live NFL action and when you need tickets, 400 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 6: ticket Masters got you covered. As the official marketplace of 401 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 6: the NFL. Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your 402 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 6: perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you three hundred 403 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 6: and sixty degree previews of your section to make sure 404 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 6: you have the best view of those pivotal plays, and 405 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 6: if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to 406 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 6: sell or transfer your tickets. Plus mobile tickets may getting 407 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 6: in on game day a breeze, and you can even 408 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 6: customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find 409 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 6: tickets today at ticketmaster dot com slash NFL. We transition 410 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 6: now to the other type of popular NFL pool to 411 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 6: Pick them pools. Most are styled after the original Westgate 412 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 6: Super Contest, where participants pay a substantial entry fee before 413 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,880 Speaker 6: the season and they select five games against the spread 414 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 6: each week. 415 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 5: The alert is clear, you. 416 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 6: Just got to pick five games and whatever the slate 417 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 6: may be that given week, and of course later in 418 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 6: the ear the bye week's factor in Thanksgiving slate, etc. 419 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,120 Speaker 6: Pick five games against the spread and have the greatest 420 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 6: season of your life and win over a million dollars. Yay, 421 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 6: and you never have to listen to us again. Jason, 422 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 6: what is the biggest mistake? So this is more so 423 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 6: like your do's and don'ts, this is a don't. What 424 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 6: is the biggest mistake pick them pool players make when 425 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 6: entering an NFL pick them contest? What is the correct 426 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 6: approach if your intention is to finish number one? 427 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 4: Again? 428 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 2: It's what contests? Are you playing? 429 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,719 Speaker 1: People win or handicapping contest and not think about others, 430 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: because you need to think about how people pick what's 431 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: going to be popular. 432 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 2: I know that somebody else did a study a couple 433 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 2: of years ago. 434 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: On those I think it was either the Circar or 435 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 1: West Kate contest, and that you know, handicappers tend to 436 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: think alike, which means in these contests, they actually all 437 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 1: pick alike. And so even if you think they might 438 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,479 Speaker 1: have a little edge, you want to be on the 439 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 1: games that people are not on a lot of times. 440 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: You want to be able to in those weeks where 441 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: you go for and one and everybody else went too, 442 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 1: to three or whatever. 443 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 2: You're gonna need luck, right, You're gonna need a lot 444 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 2: of luck. 445 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: But if you can leverage those things the same, you 446 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 1: want to leverage against the crowd, and people don't think 447 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 1: about that. I also don't think people take line value 448 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: enough in those contests. We might tend to avoid them early. 449 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: You probably want to take the line value until you 450 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 1: get to say the mid season point, because there's an edge. 451 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 2: Right, if a line's moved. 452 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: Through a key number, you're getting more than fifty percent 453 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: on that game, and you probably want to grab that 454 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 1: until you know you're definitely chasing somebody and you need 455 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: to stay off the popular picks, and I don't think 456 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: enough people do that. I think grabbing line values something 457 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: to do early in the contest. 458 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 5: Travis. 459 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:33,959 Speaker 6: Something you said last year when we did this very 460 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,479 Speaker 6: same episode in the month of August leading into the season, 461 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,239 Speaker 6: it isn't the game you think it is. 462 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 5: You reiterate that statement place. 463 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, you're not trying to predict what's going to happen 464 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 3: in this NFL. In the NFL games you're picking, you're 465 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 3: trying to predict what your opponents are going to do 466 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 3: and take advantage of that. It's a kin to poker, 467 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 3: when you're no longer playing your own cards, you're playing 468 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 3: the opponent. That's what you're doing in. 469 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 4: These pick them pools. Okay, what are they doing? Okay? 470 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,119 Speaker 3: Now, how can I get to the top of the 471 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 3: leader board using that information? 472 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, Jason mentioned if you get behind. 473 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 3: You can figure out what the popular picks are going 474 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 3: to be that week and pick and polls, you can 475 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,439 Speaker 3: just pick directly against them. That's your best way to 476 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 3: leap right up to them. If everybody's taking Team A 477 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 3: at home, you can take Team B on the road 478 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 3: right against them. And so that's an easy one for 479 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 3: one flip the same way. If you're ahead, if you're 480 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 3: an lead, you can do the exact same thing and 481 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 3: just ride the popular picks and just you know, kind 482 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 3: of stay above everyone else. So you're really trying to 483 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 3: it's almost figuring out what other people are doing. 484 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 4: Okay, now what do I do? Because of that? 485 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:41,240 Speaker 3: And then the NFL picks become secondary? Okay, now who 486 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 3: do I like? Based on that information? 487 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 6: So so off of that though, what if you, Jason, 488 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 6: what if you don't get off to a good start 489 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 6: you fall behind? I know you've done some very intriguing 490 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 6: research on what winning pick them entries look like. What 491 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 6: can you tell us about how often they have bad 492 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,399 Speaker 6: weeks or when someone falls behind and stress? 493 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 1: Now absolutely so as part of our pick on product, 494 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: one of the things we do every week you come in, 495 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: you want to get your picks, You tell us how 496 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:09,880 Speaker 1: you did, how'd you. 497 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 2: Do the week before? What place are you in? 498 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 1: So we have that data over like several years, like 499 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: we can we actually have week by week like standings 500 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: data what people tell us they did, so we can 501 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: see like, okay, this entry eventually won and here's where 502 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 1: they reported. 503 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 2: It's up and down. Obviously, you have to. 504 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: Do well overall, Like in game winner pools, if you 505 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: had to pick every game in the NFL season, our 506 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: average winning entry average like sixty seven percent for the year, 507 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: and spread pools like in the pick fives, you probably 508 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: need to be what above sixty five. It depends on 509 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: the size of the pool, but definitely above sixty maybe 510 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: above sixty five in large ones, maybe all the way 511 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 1: up to sixty eight percent. But you know, we know 512 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: that there's gonna be fluctuations, Like there were weeks when 513 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: I looked at the entries, they had five wins in 514 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 1: a week out of like fifteen sixteen game So they 515 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: had bad weeks, but they just, you know, on average, 516 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 1: bounced up and down. 517 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 2: I analogize it to golf. 518 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 1: Like a golf round, right, you want to make the 519 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: cut by the halfway point, you got to be within 520 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: like ten strokes of the leader. In golf to make 521 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: the cut, right, you need to be within like nine 522 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 1: ten games of the leader by the halfway point to 523 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: realistically have a chance to come back with a month 524 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,200 Speaker 1: ago entering the final round like you did moving day. 525 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,639 Speaker 1: Are you now within striking distance? Are you within four 526 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,679 Speaker 1: or five strokes. Are you within four or five wins 527 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 1: with a month ago? Do you not have to pass 528 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,679 Speaker 1: a large number of people? But if that's the case, 529 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 1: you know you can do that. Our data showed that 530 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 1: the average point at which the entries that reported winning 531 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: moved into first wasn't until with four weeks to go 532 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 1: on average one out every six and spread pools and 533 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 1: the game winners one in the final week. That is, 534 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 1: they were not in first place entering the week and 535 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 1: they caught the leader in the final week because they 536 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 1: were within striking distance. So you don't have to lead 537 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: wire to wire. You don't have to be great every week. 538 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: You have to stay within striking distance. 539 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 4: The stale lines. 540 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 3: I think that's that's a good one where you can 541 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 3: kind of take advantage. You know, if a game's at 542 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 3: three and somebody gets you know, Jalen Hurts is knocked 543 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 3: out for the game, and now everybody's gonna take the 544 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 3: team that's going against the Eagles, Which that's a good. 545 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 6: Example, be considering last year when Hurts went out and 546 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 6: we saw Gardner Minshew. Another example was when we saw 547 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 6: Cooper rush instead of Dack against Philadelphia. 548 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, so, and you can just jump on those backup 549 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,439 Speaker 3: quarterbacks at terrible prices. They are terrible prices. That's what 550 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 3: you're locking yourself into. But if you are behind, that's 551 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 3: something you can do to catch back up. But it's 552 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 3: like Jason said, you're everybody's going to have like a 553 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 3: one and four week, everybody you know, maybe multiple Like 554 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 3: you're just gonna have bad weeks. 555 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 4: It just happens. 556 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 3: If you've bet on football for any length of time, 557 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 3: you know this, get there are tough weeks where you 558 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 3: just totally with So just beware of that. Just keep 559 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,719 Speaker 3: on grinding through all your picks, start making maybe some 560 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,679 Speaker 3: more that will help you leap up back into that conversation, 561 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 3: make the cut that he described to maybe be there 562 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 3: at the final week. 563 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 6: And as we've discussed, this is a week to week 564 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 6: thing with pick'm pools, so it may not be obvious 565 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,679 Speaker 6: to the audience. In a pick'm pool, the ideal strategy 566 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 6: for winning a weekly prize in a pick and pool 567 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 6: can be very different from the strategy to try and 568 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 6: win the season long prize. Does a pick'm pool player 569 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,880 Speaker 6: Jason have a choice to make between striving for weekly 570 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 6: success or, as Travis used, the bigger picture. 571 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, there are there are pools that combine both. 572 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: There's also obviously some that you just do a weekly 573 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 1: contest or whatever, but. 574 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 2: The strategies are very different. 575 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 1: Like, you can win a season long pool without ever 576 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 1: being the first place entry in that pool at any 577 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: point in the season by just consistent, you know, more 578 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:53,680 Speaker 1: consistently than others, putting up ten wins, nine, eight, eleven, 579 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 1: and twelve some weeks without ever hitting the fourteen win week. 580 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 1: But if you're playing a weekly contest, the truth is 581 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,159 Speaker 1: there's maybe three or four high leverage games in a 582 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 1: given week where you switching to an underdog on those 583 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 1: particular games give you a huge edge, and we see 584 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 1: it in our data the examples of escaping. But I 585 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 1: know there was a week last year. I think it 586 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: was the week Seattle played Atlanta. It might have been 587 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: week three, four, somewhere in there. Seattle was hugely picked. 588 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 1: They had knocked off Denver in week one, Atlanta hadn't 589 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 1: won a game. 590 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 2: That was one. 591 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: There was another one Jacksonville that was the week of 592 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: the Herbert injury. This was our biggest Thirty five percent 593 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: of our subscribers reported winning a weekly prize that week 594 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,960 Speaker 1: because we basically leveraged against those two games. The Chargers 595 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: line dropped because of the Herbert news, but the public 596 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 1: was heavily against the Jags because we think that we 597 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 1: know the Jags are good now, But think back to 598 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 1: last September. People thought the jag sucked and everybody was 599 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: picking against them, And so you might have been in. 600 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,680 Speaker 6: The final few weeks Lawrence had at your point changed 601 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 6: that around, but at the time that was not the case. 602 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 6: They had not really kind of turned that corner yet. 603 00:26:58,440 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, so you might have had two to three point 604 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:03,159 Speaker 1: onunderdogs that collectively only one out of every one hundred 605 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: entries is picking that combo, and seventy percent we're picking 606 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 1: the opposite. So you gain two wins on basically the 607 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 1: field when you pick just those two games. And that's 608 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: a difference between a weekly and a season long because 609 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 1: season long, you might just follow the crowd on those 610 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 1: games and just be like, I'm going to outperform them 611 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: over two hundred games, But in a weekly you're like, 612 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,120 Speaker 1: I'm these three games matter. I'm going to win these 613 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 1: three games and win the pool if it hits. 614 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 2: If my outcome. 615 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 3: Hits, remember Ricky Bobby first or last, I do not 616 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 3: care about the weekly prize for the most part, you know, 617 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:33,880 Speaker 3: depending on how it's structured. 618 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 4: But I want that end goal at. 619 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 3: The end of the season, so for the most part, 620 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 3: I will sacrifice any chance of getting you know, that 621 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 3: fourteen and three week or something like that, and just 622 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,640 Speaker 3: try to get you know, my ten and eleven every week, 623 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,879 Speaker 3: get those wins banked, and just be there at the 624 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,080 Speaker 3: end of season. So that's that's always my strategy. Yeah, 625 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,959 Speaker 3: it might help you get back some expected value by 626 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 3: winning a couple of those weeks, but if you can 627 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 3: win that big prize at the end, that's going to 628 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 3: be the highest for your bankroll. 629 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, and our product, by the way, provides different recommendations, 630 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: but on what goal you want to go for. There's 631 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,160 Speaker 1: probably a point if you're not realistically going to win 632 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 1: the pool where you do want to just switch and 633 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: be like, I'm playing for weeklies every week for the 634 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,320 Speaker 1: last five weeks of the season because I'm too far back, 635 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 1: I'm probably not hitting it. But yeah, if the prize 636 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: money is in the season long, that probably needs to 637 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 1: be your goal, but you probably want to adjust and 638 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,399 Speaker 1: evaluate each week, like how realistic is winning the league 639 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,040 Speaker 1: prize the season prize versus taking shots on the weekly. 640 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 5: Jason Lyst Travis Reed, this was awesome. You guys were great. 641 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 6: I feel even more educated than last year, and it 642 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:37,960 Speaker 6: feels like we hit on the same stuff, but we grow, 643 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 6: we learn. 644 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 5: The examples were fantastic. Thanks to both of you for hopping. 645 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 2: On absolutely Thank you. 646 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 4: Thanks Manka R. 647 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 5: Thanks again to Jason Lisk and Travis Reed. 648 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 6: Is a reminder, Pool Genius is extending discounts up to 649 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 6: fifty five percent on football packages to Action Network listeners, 650 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 6: plus a free trial through NFL Week one, so you 651 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 6: can give all of their tools a test drive. Just 652 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 6: visit poolgenius dot com slash action to sign up Poolgenius 653 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,959 Speaker 6: dot com slash Action or follow the link in this 654 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 6: episode description. 655 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 5: It'll take you there. 656 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 6: Next week NFL Week one, so be on the lookout 657 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 6: for our full lineup of weekly NFL episodes, including our 658 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 6: NFL Betting preview with Stucky and Chris Raybond. Plus happy 659 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 6: to have our NFL Best Bets weekly episodes every Friday. 660 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,959 Speaker 6: Thanks again for listening everybody to the Action Network podcast 661 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 6: presented by FanDuel. 662 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 5: We will join you next time. 663 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 6: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 664 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 6: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help Us 665 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 6: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler