1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: All right, here we got growing in spect. 4 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: We're saying it's a cash toto that we see most 5 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 2: gamble is when they go to gamble, they go to wind. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like to make money. 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate commotion if you want 8 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: to pull. 9 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 3: And we are underway. 10 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:35,639 Speaker 2: What is up? Everybody? 11 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. I 12 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: am your host, Chris Raybond, and today we've got our 13 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: NFL player prop picks for the divisional round. We're going 14 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: to discuss our top player props of the week. I'm 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: gonna have four props. Sean Turner's here, He's gonna have 16 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: four props as well. So Sean, what's going on? How 17 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 1: you feeling about this divisional. 18 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 4: I'm feeling pretty good, honestly, just you know, recovering from 19 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 4: our intense New York trip how to Last but you know, 20 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 4: catching up here. 21 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 3: But I love all these matchups. 22 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 4: So I found a prop I like from every game, 23 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 4: so looking forward to diving in. 24 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, So we'll go game by game. I have two 25 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 2: from one game and zero from another. 26 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: But you the good sport has always picked one exactly 27 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: one from each game, and we do have some overlap 28 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: for one of them, and instead of trying to find 29 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: a different one, I let I'm gonna let us just 30 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 1: go with the overlap because I think we're like what 31 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: sixteen and two on gott to be overlap on this 32 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: year or. 33 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 4: Something so unofficially, but that's probably very close to what 34 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 4: we are this year. 35 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: I can't remember losing more than one or two, and 36 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 1: I know we've been on are you know, ten or 37 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: fifteen at least? Okay, So let's start with the first game, 38 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: that is the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Kansas City Chiefs 39 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: on Saturday afternoon. Chiefs favored by eight and a half, 40 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: the total way up at fifty three, so the market 41 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: is expecting some offense in this game. 42 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 2: Sean, what do you like for your prop? 43 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: So? 44 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 4: I actually like Travis Kelsey over seven and a half 45 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 4: receiving yards here, and this kind of reminds me of 46 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 4: the Christian McCaffrey rushing prop that again we both liked 47 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,679 Speaker 4: last week to go over. Usually I'm not on these 48 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 4: kind of players, like usually the market's pretty inflated. We 49 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 4: know these guys are good but so does you know 50 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 4: the sportsbook, so they tend to set the prop a 51 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 4: bit too high. But this is a spot for Kelsey 52 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 4: where I don't know if they can set this line 53 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 4: high enough, and it'll probably only go up. So the 54 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,519 Speaker 4: sooner you bet this, the better. But since week nine, 55 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,239 Speaker 4: you know Kelsey's average and eighty two percent routes run rate, 56 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 4: and you know, considering it's the playoffs, he could go 57 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 4: up closer than ninety percent. I mean, it's a must 58 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 4: win game, so he's gonna play the most he could 59 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 4: possibly play, and he facing a Jaguars defense that we 60 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,959 Speaker 4: typically take advantage of when it comes to tight ends. 61 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 4: They ranked dead last thirty second in DVA against tight ends. 62 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 4: They just allowed a six catch, one hundred and nine 63 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 4: yard game to Gerald Everett, who's no slouch. But it 64 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 4: just goes to show that usually tight ends go off 65 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 4: against his defense, and usually teams go out of the 66 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 4: way trying to slow down moves and Kelson they can't 67 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 4: do it. So if there's any team that really can't 68 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 4: do that, it's the Jaguars. So again, this is a prop. 69 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:29,799 Speaker 4: I have the media and culture to eighty seven and 70 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 4: a half, and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised because way 71 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 4: over that. So this is just one of those bets 72 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 4: where I just don't know how he's gonna stay under this, 73 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 4: and it seems like a square side to be on, 74 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 4: but in reality, this is just a bet with just 75 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 4: so much upside. I couldn't pass it up. 76 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, we need we needed our producers to go find 77 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: I feel like it was like the last two postseasons, 78 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: you bet like Travis Kelcey unders like three other times, 79 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 1: so I feel like you're just trying to make up 80 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: for that and redeem yourself. 81 00:03:58,440 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I can't. I can't not. 82 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: You know, it's I'm actually a little closer to the market, 83 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: to be honest. I'm at like eighty three average, so 84 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: I'm right there in line. But I mean there's more upside. 85 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: The downside it is Travis Kelsey and the Jaguars are 86 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: dead last in DVOA against tight ends and thirtieth in 87 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: DVOA on passes to the middle, and I believe they're 88 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: dead last on passes to the short middle. So a 89 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: very inviting matchup, and that's going to kind of weed 90 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 1: into my prop because I'm actually going with Juju over 91 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: fifty four and a half receiving yards. There's a lot 92 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: more value when I initially gave this out on the 93 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 1: Tampa with Stucky at fifty and a half. But I 94 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: still like Juju to go over here because if you 95 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: look at the fourteen games in which he started and finished, 96 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: you know, excluding the one he left with the concussion 97 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: and the one where he came back and he was eased, 98 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: and he played thirty eight percent of snaps both of 99 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: those times, but his other fourteen games, he went over 100 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: this in seven and he went under at seven, So 101 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: it's dead even. But if it was a Juju game 102 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: in which I'll tell you why, I think it's going 103 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: to be in the second. But it was seventy four 104 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: or more yards when he went over in seven of 105 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: the games, and then forty six or less in the 106 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: other seven. 107 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 2: So if you like it and you agree with. 108 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: Me, you're probably gonna be straight, even though it's starting 109 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: to rise. But the reason I like Juju here, Jacksonville 110 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 1: plays the sixth most zone Juju, averaging just over two 111 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: point two yards per route run against zone. That is 112 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: twelfth of ninety three qualified wide receivers according to PFF. 113 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 2: And I already. 114 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: Mentioned Jacksonville week over the middle, especially the short middle. 115 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 1: If they do want to switch it up and go 116 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: with some more man coverage, your Juju is gonna line 117 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: up in the slot of Ton and Herndon. Trey Herndon 118 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: their slot corner one hundredth of one twenty qualifiers in 119 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: his PFF grade, So not a very good slot corner 120 00:05:57,680 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: there for the Jags and. 121 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 3: Juju thank you in. 122 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: He wrecked up thirty three yards in the first meeting, 123 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: and he only played thirty eight percent of snaps, so 124 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: you know he was averaging more than a yard per 125 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 1: total snap played run or pass, So you know that 126 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: bodes well for a game like this. I think he's 127 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,160 Speaker 1: going to be heavily targeted, and I think you could 128 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 1: also see his route participation rate go up a little 129 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 1: bit as well. For the season, his average seventy seven 130 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: percent jumps to about eighty two percent if you take 131 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: out those two games that I mentioned where he only 132 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: played thirty eight percent of snaps, but he's gotten as 133 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: high as as ninety four percent, and he's been in 134 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: the high eighties a bunch. 135 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised in the playoff game with a good. 136 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 1: Matchup and no, Nicole Hardman if you see him, you know, 137 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:49,919 Speaker 1: toward the higher end of his range of outcomes, just 138 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: in terms of his usage rate in this game. So 139 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 1: a lot of reasons to like Juju, But I don't know. 140 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: I feel like we're on the two top receivers on 141 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, so hopefully I think they go here. 142 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 3: This can both go over. 143 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 4: The jugs are a pass final defense. We kind of 144 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 4: saw that last week. That's kind of why the Chargers lost. 145 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 4: They couldn't They were up by twenty four whatever and 146 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 4: they couldn't run the ball, so they kept going second 147 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 4: and long, third and long and have to throw. 148 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 3: So it's one of those games. I just think mahomes can. 149 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 4: Easily go over three hundred and fifty yards and both 150 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 4: of these guys going over. 151 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have. 152 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: Mahomes around three to zero five right now, and that's 153 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: still with me projecting you know, about a twenty five 154 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: percent chance of rain, So like that's a that's pretty rare. 155 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: You pretty over three hundred yards when you're adjusting for rain. 156 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 1: So yeah, if it happened, if the weather, if we 157 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: get good weather news, I would like these even more. 158 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: But yeah, like Juju, and you like Kelsey, I got 159 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: one more from this game before we move on, and 160 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: shout out to Stuckey who actually alerted me to this one. 161 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: And I looked at it up. I was like, oh man, 162 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: I'm mad I didn't take this for myself on the pod, 163 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: but I'll take it here. And it's Travis Etn over 164 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: seventeen and a half receiving yards. And you know the 165 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: reason that I like this is obviously number one Jaguars, 166 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: big underdogs, so you expect a trailing game script here, 167 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: you can expect more passes. I have Lawrence projected for 168 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: thirty nine attempts here, thirty nine and a half attempts. 169 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: But last week Etn played on eighty five percent of 170 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: the running back pass snaps, so he was on the 171 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: field pretty much the almost the entire game. Even in 172 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: a game in which they had a ton of play volume, 173 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: he didn't really catch a breather and they didn't really 174 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: look to to Michael Hasty as much as they had 175 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: in the regular season. So I have bumped Etn up 176 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: a little bit in terms of his route participation, and 177 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 1: you know, still being conservative, you know, not giving him, 178 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: you know, the full whatever, you know, seventy seven percent 179 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,559 Speaker 1: that he got last game, but just you know, kind 180 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: of in the mid sixties. 181 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 2: And I have them catching. 182 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 1: About three and a half balls, just under three and 183 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 1: a half balls for just over twenty five yards here, 184 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 1: So I think this prop is way too low. I 185 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: think there's a ton of value here because even though 186 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: Eten hasn't been a great pass catcher, you know, this 187 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: is a pretty condensed offense. You know, they're really not 188 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: using the fourth receiver, they're not using the backup tight ends, 189 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: and now they're not even using the backup running back. 190 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: So if you're going to be on the field, you know, 191 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: running two thirds to three quarters of the route in 192 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 1: a game where we expect a lot of passes, you 193 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: would expect an explosive guy like Etn to clear this 194 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: and the Chiefs a good matchup twenty six in DVA 195 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: on passes to running backs. 196 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I like that one. 197 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,079 Speaker 4: And Jamichael Hasey had zero touches. So it's pretty clear 198 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 4: that Aten is going to be a true work course. 199 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 3: Back in the playoffs. 200 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 4: And you know, he's been kind of underwhelming when it 201 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 4: comes to you know, receptions and receiving yards this here, 202 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 4: but that's kind of that was kind of a specialty 203 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 4: heading into the season, remember Dad, and lining up as 204 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 4: a receiver at times. So he's a really good pass 205 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 4: catching back. So at any given moment, he's going to 206 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 4: go off. And if he's seeing this much playing time, 207 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 4: it just gives him even more chances. So yeah, good 208 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 4: by law opportunity because, like you said, you only had 209 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 4: one catch for twelve yards last week, but that was 210 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 4: kind of fluky based on his playing time, So he 211 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,079 Speaker 4: got massive, massive upside in the spot right here. 212 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, That's that's really what we're taking advantage of. 213 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: Here's the fact that you know, he didn't really put 214 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: up a massive game, Like I still have his targets 215 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: per route projected around you know, about thirteen and a 216 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: half percent, so pretty low. 217 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 2: So it's literally it just comes down to the volume. 218 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 1: This this number is way too low, just how we 219 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: kind of talked about kind of the opposite last week 220 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: with I think it was Mixing's numbers which is way 221 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: too high. 222 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 2: You know, there was no like, it was just volume. 223 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:47,559 Speaker 2: He wasn't going to get enough here. I think ETN 224 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 2: is going to get more than enough. 225 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: So let's go to the Giants and the Eagles Saturday, 226 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 1: Night Football Divisional matchup here. You got the Eagles favored 227 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: by seven and a half, the total up to forty eight. 228 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: Looks like there's some sharp action coming in on that 229 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: over as well. 230 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 2: What do you like in this giant Eagle game? 231 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,559 Speaker 4: So I'm on Daniel Bellinger under twenty two and a 232 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 4: half receiving yards. As you remember, weeks fifteen through seventeen, 233 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 4: he ran her out on ninety six percent of Daniel 234 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 4: Jones dropbacks. That's why we were kind of saying he's 235 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 4: a great play in DFS. I mean, granted, he wasn't 236 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 4: doing much with that usage. He only averaged twenty four 237 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 4: yards a game over that stretch. And then last week 238 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 4: against the Vikings, his routes run rate fell all the 239 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 4: way down to eighty two percent for whatever reason, I 240 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 4: don't know why, but they got Lawrence Cajor more involved. 241 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 4: His routes run rate was around thirty percent, and that 242 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 4: honestly could have had something to do with Week eighteen. 243 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 4: You know, when they rested all the starters, caj just 244 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 4: went off for eight catches for sixty nine yards. You know, 245 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:56,199 Speaker 4: he's a former receiver, so he's more athletic than Bellingers. 246 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 4: So maybe they just wanted a little bit more pop 247 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 4: in the passing game. But I'm expecting them to have 248 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 4: a similar usage this week, and the Eagles are pretty 249 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 4: good against tight end six and DDA, So if Bellinger 250 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 4: isn't getting that massive, massive playing time, you know, he's 251 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 4: gonna have a much lower floor as always, and he 252 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 4: has a lower A dot, so he could catch three 253 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 4: passes and still stay under this number. So I think 254 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 4: there's some sneaky value on Bellinger under twenty two and 255 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 4: a half receiving ard tier. 256 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's been. 257 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: A challenge to project this tight end usage for this 258 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: week because that was kind of a it kind of 259 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: came out. 260 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 2: Of left field, right Lawrence cagor thirty percent. 261 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 1: And what's even more interesting is that Bellinger actually played 262 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 1: on eighty three percent of the pass nept So I'm 263 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: actually projecting it even lower because he didn't really block 264 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: at all, and you know, you got it usually factor 265 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 1: in he's going to block. You know, I'm using his 266 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: like season long pass blocking rate kind of mixed with 267 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: his last week snap rate, so I actually have him 268 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: around seventy seven and a half percent for this week, 269 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: which is even lower than last week. So yeah, I 270 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: show a little bit of value on the under as well, 271 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: and I kind of selfishly hoping that he does go 272 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: under because I think it's somewhat correlated with the prop 273 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: that I want to go over, and that is Saquon 274 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: Barkley over his receiving yardage prop at twenty five and 275 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: a half. And you know, bark We was in on 276 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: He ran around on ninety five percent of the dropbacks 277 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: last week, so he was out there every play. And 278 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: because they had Kjer Bellinger and even sometimes Matt Brida 279 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: on the field at the same time, bark We didn't 280 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,319 Speaker 1: need to block. So that's something that's kind of been 281 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: happening more and more as this season has kind of 282 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: during a stretch run, they've stopped using Barkley as a 283 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: blocker as much. And I think that's you know, that 284 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 1: speaks to you know, he had a I think he 285 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 1: had a neck injury at one point, and he had 286 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: a shoulder injury at one point. 287 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:51,959 Speaker 2: So it kind of makes sense. 288 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 1: You know, you get your most exploitive play maker, don't 289 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: let him have to hit linebackers and defensive lineman. Get 290 00:13:58,080 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: him in a route, and I think they're going to 291 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: need to do that this week against Philly. Philly's number 292 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: twenty four in DVOA on passes to running backs, but 293 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: they're also number two against number one wide receivers. They're 294 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: fourth against number two wide receivers. So you're gonna have 295 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 1: to find other ways to beat this Eagle team than 296 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: just Slayton and Hodgens like it did last week against Minnesota. 297 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: It's some of that stuff just isn't gonna be there 298 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: this week. So I think Barkley is going to be 299 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: featured in the past game. And he had twenty yards 300 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: on just seven routes when they played in Week fourteen, 301 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: but he had an injury and so he didn't really 302 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: play much. But I think that was promising, and I 303 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: think that's kind of a sign of things to come. 304 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: More Barkley in the past game rather than you know, 305 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: a bunch of targets to Slayton and Hodgens this week, 306 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: just because the separation I just don't think is going 307 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: to be there the way it was against you know, 308 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: playing Minnesota two times at three. 309 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, this was actually my favorite prop in that game 310 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 4: before I found the IRV Smith prop, because you know, 311 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 4: the Vikings play a ton of zone and you know, 312 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 4: I thought Broukley is going to go off. Ironically, the 313 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 4: Vikings just fired defensive courner at Donna tell As. 314 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 3: I'm saying, oh no, no, that would have to do 315 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 3: a little bit of breaking news there, man. 316 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, Like that's that's just like when that's like when 317 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: Bleedy Ray Wilson got shtched. 318 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, who saw this coming? 319 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 4: But I mean one of the things that I saw was, 320 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 4: I think it was week sixteen, you were saying, look, 321 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 4: it's must win time for the Giants. Do not be 322 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 4: surprised if Barkley just you know, starts playing every down. Yeah, 323 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 4: and that's when his rous run rate jumped up to 324 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 4: you know, he was around like sixty sixty five percent 325 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 4: from week ten for fifteen. 326 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 3: He was banged up. 327 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 4: We were saying, you know, he's probably just exhausted, you know, 328 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 4: he's had a big workload, and then shot all the 329 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,359 Speaker 4: way up to eighty two percent, ninety percent in week seventeen, 330 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 4: and then it was ninety five percent last week. So 331 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 4: he's practically running route on every Daniel Jones dropback, and 332 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 4: last week Jones had what eleven rush attempts, So I 333 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 4: don't think he's gonna scramble as much it's gonna be impossible. 334 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 4: So I just think that's gonna lead to more checkofs 335 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 4: to Barkley as well. So yeah, I think he has massive, 336 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 4: massive upside in the market right now. 337 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, cleared it in three of his last four. 338 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: He's on thirty three to forty nine, and he had 339 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: a negative five against Indianapolis and in fifty six last week. 340 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 2: So tread it up. Let's go to Sunday. 341 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: We got the Bills and the Bengals Bills at home, 342 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: favored by five and a half, the total forty. 343 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: Eight and a half. 344 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: And this is the game that we are both on 345 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: the same props, So break it down. 346 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, so we both arrived at this on our own. 347 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 4: And Devin Singletary under it's down to forty and a 348 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 4: half rushing yards. 349 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 3: But I still like it there. 350 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 4: And the few reasons I do like the under here 351 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 4: is the first is, you know he was out touched 352 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 4: by rookie James Cook last week, who had twelve rush attempts. 353 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 4: Singletary had ten. You know, I was kind of I 354 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 4: didn't touch that backfield the first game. I thought there 355 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 4: was a chance, you know, the Bills are gonna let 356 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 4: the veteran Singletary handle more work despite James Cook seriously 357 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 4: out playing him all year long. But the opposite was true. 358 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 4: You know, they let James Cook handle at least more 359 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 4: of the early down work. Singletary did play significantly more 360 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 4: on passing downs. So that's the first reason I like 361 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 4: the under. The second is this should be a close game, 362 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 4: you know, where the Bills will likely be a bit 363 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 4: more pass heavy than usual. I think the overall rushing 364 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 4: volume itself will be down here for the Bills. And 365 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 4: third is you know, the Bengals run defense is very good. 366 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 4: They ranked fourteenth and DVOA on the season, but you 367 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 4: have to factor and DJ Reader missed six games earlier 368 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 4: in the season. He's one of the premier run stuffers 369 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 4: in the league. Teams have averaged four point six yards 370 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 4: per run when he's off the field only three point 371 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 4: six years yards per run when he's on the field, 372 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,640 Speaker 4: according to Sports Info Solutions. So a lot of reasons 373 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,360 Speaker 4: like this under. I just think he has a very 374 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 4: low floor. He's more likely to hit his floor here, 375 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 4: so I'm projecting his medium closer to thirty five and 376 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 4: a half yards, But I still like it at forty 377 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 4: and a half. 378 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:20,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm even lower than that. I was average around thirty. 379 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: Three because I you know, the Bills are still a 380 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: very pass heavy team. And you know, in the in 381 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: the first round, even against a Skylar Thompson quarterbacked Dolphins team, 382 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 1: the Bills still called a designed pass play sixty eight 383 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: percent of the top so more than two thirds of 384 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 1: the time the Bills still. 385 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 2: Were throwing the football. 386 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: And you know against this Bengals defense, who you know, 387 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: I say, I don't know. I don't know that they 388 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: crowd the box or anything like that, but I think 389 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 1: they will dare the Bills to run at points, but 390 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 1: still a tough defense to run against. 391 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 2: Mentioned with Reader, their. 392 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: Average teams are running backspacif or averaging a half a 393 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 1: yard less per carry in the games Reader has played. 394 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: And yeah, you know that Week eight team that Patriots 395 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: game Cook nine carries Singletary seven. You say, okay, now 396 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 1: that that could just be kind of some noise, you know, 397 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: end of the year, maybe they're trying to get the 398 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: rookie some more work or whatever. Now, but then he 399 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: gets two more carries than Singletary in the first round 400 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: of the playoffs as well, So now you kind of 401 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: look at that and say, Okay, now you really have 402 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 1: to adjust for that, because two games, when you're looking 403 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 1: at carries share for running backs, that's really all it takes. 404 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: You know, you kind of have to adjust based on 405 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: those last two games and kind of go from there. 406 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 1: So at this point, I'm projecting Cook for about two 407 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: more carries than Devin Singletary and that's what's kind of 408 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 1: got him in the mid thirties and one with this 409 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: tough matchup. So still have Singletary projected for most of 410 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: the passing down work, and I think the team is 411 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 1: more comfortable with that because remember, earlier in the year, 412 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 1: Cook was struggling with the kind of the blocking aspect 413 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 1: of it, and there's one thing you can't have, it's 414 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: getting Josh Allen decked. So I think that this this 415 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: kind of breakdown usage wise, we'll continuely, Let's not forget 416 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 1: nam Hines been working in more. And in that first 417 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: Bengals game that got canceled, Singletary did get the first carried, 418 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: but Cooke got the next two, scored a touchdown, and 419 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 1: even in the middle of that, Reggie Gilliam got a target. 420 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: So like there's four backfield opportunities Singletary got one. 421 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, I mean so looking at you know, 422 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 4: Bengals game loge since week eleven Reader returned, they held 423 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 4: backs like Derrick Henry thirty eight yards, Nick Chubb thirty 424 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,919 Speaker 4: four yards, Ramandre Stevenson thirty yards. Those are workhorse backs 425 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 4: and now you have a guy that you know splits 426 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 4: work at best, you know, clearing those numbers. So it's 427 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 4: just with this defense playing well, I don't see how 428 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 4: the Bills don't just air it out. And even Josh 429 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 4: Allen himself hasn't been running as much lately. He had 430 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 4: what four rush a tempts last week, so that will 431 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,920 Speaker 4: likely go up this week and maybe you know one 432 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 4: or two of those is at the expense of Singletary 433 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 4: as well. 434 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I will be interested to see if they the 435 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: Bills go to some option here because you know, they 436 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: have been kind of reluctant to run Outen. But the 437 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: one thing that has worked against that Bengals defense has 438 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 1: been that that that option that that the Ravens are running. 439 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 2: You know, Dobbins. 440 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: Dobbins had no problem picking up work, but picking up 441 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 1: the yardist but I think that is kind of contributing 442 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 1: to why this line opened. 443 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 2: Uh So high. 444 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 1: You know, I think you know, books are probably factoring in. Okay, Well, 445 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: they just gave up a bunch of yards to Dobbins 446 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 1: and I think they did twice both in both of 447 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: those games, but or instead the Ravens running backs in general, 448 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 1: I don't know. 449 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 2: It was like Drake, I think in the first one. 450 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 2: But either way, tough matchup for the Bills. 451 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: They're gonna win. I think they still wan on their 452 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: past game here all right, Now we come to the 453 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: final game. This is the Cowboys going to the San 454 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers. 455 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 2: Niners favored by three and a half total forty six. 456 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: So this is one I don't have a prop yet, 457 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: so I'll let you carry us for this. 458 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 4: So I'm going with Christian McCaffrey under thirty eight and 459 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 4: a half receiving yards, and obviously, you know he's arguably 460 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 4: the top pass catching back. 461 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 3: In the league. 462 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 4: But the Nighters offense really hasn't been using their running 463 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 4: backs in the passing game very much the past few seasons, 464 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 4: and lately it's kind of showed with McCaffrey. He's only 465 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 4: cleared this in two of the last eight games. He's 466 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 4: only seen three or four or more targets, I should say, 467 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 4: in two of the last six, so he's been held 468 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 4: for three or fewer in four of the last six, 469 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 4: but that that was so he hasn't cleared this in 470 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 4: two of eight games, and that was a spite Deebo 471 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 4: missing three games Elijah Mitchell missing five games over that stretch, 472 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 4: So technically he should have been at Max's capacity over 473 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:43,639 Speaker 4: that range, and he still isn't clearing this. 474 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 3: So with both players back. 475 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 4: In the lineup, that that's going to only eat into 476 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 4: his usage even more. Dallas tends to play more man 477 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 4: covers than other teams. You know, they played man covers 478 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 4: at the tenth highest rate. They've generated the highest pressure rates, 479 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 4: So there's a chance McCaffrey had to stay on a 480 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 4: block just a little bit more here. Plus we saw 481 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,120 Speaker 4: last week that brock Perty was more willing to scramble. 482 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 3: I've been saying he. 483 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 4: Could rush for over to twenty yards a game if 484 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,199 Speaker 4: he wanted to or needed to, and I think you 485 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 4: hinted they can't afford to get hurt, so they probably 486 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 4: told not to do that. But now that we're in 487 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 4: the playoffs, you know, I would not be surprised if 488 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 4: he does rush for twenty or more yards going forward, 489 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 4: So he ran season high sixteen yards last week. Again, 490 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,200 Speaker 4: the more he's gonna scramble, the less checkdowns McCaffrey will 491 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 4: even get. 492 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 3: And then the matchup. 493 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 4: You know, Dallas has only allowed two running backs to 494 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 4: clear this number all year. You know, obviously, like I said, 495 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 4: cmc is an elite pass catching back, but that just 496 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 4: goes to show how high this number actually is if 497 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 4: only two running backs have cleared this against the Cowboys. 498 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 4: So I'm still projecting him, you know, or a pretty 499 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 4: high number here at thirty three and a half. But 500 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 4: just the way the foreign Niners distributed the ball, every 501 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 4: player kind of has a lower floor if other guys 502 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 4: go off. So this is just a matchup where I 503 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 4: think they're gonna lean on mccaffree Moore as a runner 504 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 4: then as a pass catcher. So I like the value 505 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 4: we're getting here on his under thirty eight and a 506 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 4: half or seat the yards. 507 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this offense is so stacked that they 508 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 1: don't need McCaffrey to gain you know, forty yards. You know, 509 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,159 Speaker 1: obviously if he breaks one, you know that that just 510 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:12,160 Speaker 1: comes with the territory. 511 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 2: But you know, yeah, they're spreading the ball round. 512 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 1: You got Kiddle healthy, you got you playing at a 513 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: high level, and of course he got de Bo backs. 514 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: So if they don't have to get McCaffrey, you know, 515 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 1: you know, thirty eight forty plus yards in the receiving game, 516 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,639 Speaker 1: I think they prefer because I think they want to 517 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: use him on the ground. And you know, last week 518 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: it was Elijah Mitchell making the plays in a past game, So. 519 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 2: Maybe that should be my prop. 520 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: Though, Rock thirty over six and a half rushing yards 521 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,120 Speaker 1: each of the last two seven or more. He's averaging seven. 522 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: Ye had seven and then sixteen in the first playoff game, 523 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,360 Speaker 1: so yeah, that might actually might actually have to say 524 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: a look at that one. 525 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 3: Go for it. 526 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, he's not Jimmy g He's not some statue esque 527 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 4: no pocket passer. He's been in that you know, his 528 00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,360 Speaker 4: prop has been in the five and a half, six 529 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 4: and a half rain. But I'm telling you he has 530 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 4: the ability if he wants to, to just absolutely crush 531 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 4: that we kind of sawed. 532 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 3: Once of that last week. 533 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the only thing that probably you know, 534 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 1: it makes it close is that you know, you could, 535 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 1: you know, the Niners win in every week favored again 536 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: could get three nail downs, which could which could make 537 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: it a sweat So but yeah, follow me in the 538 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: app obviously of course follow Sean at the underscore odds maker. 539 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,199 Speaker 1: I'm at Chris Raybond and you could see you know 540 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:32,360 Speaker 1: what else We've kind of decided on between the time 541 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 1: you've recorded this and the time that the ball is 542 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: kicked off. But that is going to do it for 543 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: this pod and for more great fantasy content from Sean 544 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 1: and I, be sure to check out our full DFS 545 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 1: preview episodes over on the Fantasy Flex podcast channel leading 546 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: into the Division round, and be sure to check out 547 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 1: by week we betting preview episode every Thursday with Stucky 548 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 1: right here on the Action Network podcast. 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