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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It was time for the long awaited, overdue celebration to

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Speaker 2: comments back, get back, go back, get back, goes to win,

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Speaker 2: not just to go.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from the test throwing a

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Speaker 3: show spect we're saying it's to cats touchdown. We'll see

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Speaker 3: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to swin.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like

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Speaker 1: to make money. All right, this is the ultimate Kaban

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Speaker 1: want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are under way.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented

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Speaker 2: by Bett MGM, the King of sportsbooks. Today we've got

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Speaker 2: our early player props for the Super Bowl Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: fifty eight. I am your host, Chris Raybaugh of the

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Speaker 2: Action Networking on today's show, we're going to dive into

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Speaker 2: our betting approach for the Super Bowl and we'll each

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Speaker 2: give out three picks that we're looking at early on

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Speaker 2: in this week. So we're going to discuss where we see,

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Speaker 2: you know, value, if there's anything to jump on now.

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Speaker 2: And of course we're still a week and a half

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Speaker 2: out for the big Game, so be sure to keep

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Speaker 2: an eye out for our full propap Losa episode. We'll

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Speaker 2: have that next week with an even deeper look at

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl prop bets, but we wanted to have a

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Speaker 2: shorter episode this week, you know, with some initial props,

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Speaker 2: and of course joining me one of the most accurate

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Speaker 2: rankers in the game, the most accurate ranker this year,

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Speaker 2: of course, the odds maker Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 1: What's going on, Sean up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just excited to finally lock in some official

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl you know, props and bets here, So super

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Speaker 3: excited for this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get right into it. We'll go back and forth.

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Speaker 2: You can start us off with give three each where

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Speaker 2: you're going for your first Super Bowl fifty eight prop.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, as I always say, this is the

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Speaker 3: only game where we can really on some fun punter props,

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Speaker 3: So I'm going straight to the punter props. Kicking it

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Speaker 3: off with Mitch Wishnowski longest punt to go over fifty

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Speaker 3: five and a half yards. It's at minus one fifteen

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Speaker 3: right now. But he's had a punt longer than this

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Speaker 3: in fourteen of nineteen games this year, so that's a

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Speaker 3: seventy three percent hit rate. Now, five of those times

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Speaker 3: his longest punt was exactly fifty six yards, so it's

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Speaker 3: absolutely critical to get the over here at fifty five

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Speaker 3: and a half, just because he's been hitting fifty six

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Speaker 3: so frequently. It also means that, you know, he's probably

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Speaker 3: unlikely to clear it at such a high rate since

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Speaker 3: he's just barely going over so many times. But I

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Speaker 3: think there are you know, a few reasons to like

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Speaker 3: his upside here regardless. The first is this game's at

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Speaker 3: Legion Stadium, and I went back and I looked at

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Speaker 3: like the last three seasons how punters fared there, and

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Speaker 3: typically you see an average right around like a three

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Speaker 3: percent increase in their punt yards. You know, it's indoors,

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Speaker 3: so that that's gonna help. It's also you know, Paradise,

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Speaker 3: Nevada is around two thousand feet above sea level, so

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Speaker 3: that probably doesn't hurt. So either way, just punters typically average,

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Speaker 3: you know, an extra yard yard and a half at

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Speaker 3: this stadium, so it's a great place to punt. And

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Speaker 3: you know, he's only played two games indoors this year,

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Speaker 3: and both those games he had a punt go longer

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Speaker 3: than sixty yards, so he's been really good punting indoors

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Speaker 3: this year. He's also averaged just three punts a game.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the Niners don't really have to punt, so

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Speaker 3: this is going to be a really tough matchup for them.

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Speaker 3: The market has them punting around four times here, so

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Speaker 3: he's gonna probably have on average an extra punt here,

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Speaker 3: which is massive for a prop like this. So thirty

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Speaker 3: two percent of his punts have cleared this so I

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Speaker 3: think if he has three to four punt attempts should

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Speaker 3: be enough for him to get one over this number.

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Speaker 3: I have his medium closer to fifty eight and a

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Speaker 3: half yards with him run a sixty two percent chance

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Speaker 3: of clearing again, like I said, probably won't be seventy

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Speaker 3: three percent going forward, but I still think it's above

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Speaker 3: sixty percent. So love the value we're getting here. And

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Speaker 3: I'd probably still bet this at fifty six and a half,

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Speaker 3: but it's really key to get it here at fifty

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Speaker 3: five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think also when you look at Kyle

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Speaker 2: Shanahan in just his style of coaching, he's not going

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Speaker 2: to be super aggressive on fourth down.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he tends.

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Speaker 2: To play fairly conservative, is not going to do anything

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Speaker 2: crazy fake punts things like that. I think he made

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Speaker 2: a whole diet tribe about how he doesn't really care

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Speaker 2: for fake punts and things like that, so you should

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Speaker 2: at least maximize your chances of punts here facing the

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Speaker 2: tough Kansas City matchup. All right, for my first prop,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with Isaiah Pitcheko to have the most rushing

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Speaker 2: yards in the game at plus one seventy. I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, Christian McCaffrey obviously should be the favorite, but

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Speaker 2: his odds are minus two fifty, and I think they're

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Speaker 2: creating a value on the only other player I think

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Speaker 2: a pretty realistic shot at this in this game, and

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Speaker 2: that's Pacheco. You know, he led each of the three

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Speaker 2: Kansas City playoff games in rushing, and McCaffrey didn't lead

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Speaker 2: either of the Niner playoff games in rushing. So this

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Speaker 2: is something that you know, it's not as far fetched

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Speaker 2: as it may seem.

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Speaker 1: And then you look.

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Speaker 2: At defenses, and we know Kansas City's had the worst

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Speaker 2: run defense for the year, but in the playoffs, Kansas

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Speaker 2: City allowing four point six yards per carry along of

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Speaker 2: twenty one, and they allowed about one hundred and thirteen

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Speaker 2: yards per game, whereas the Niners are allowing one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty six yards per game. On the ground and

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Speaker 2: five point six yards to carry with a log of

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Speaker 2: fifty three. They've given up at least a forty two

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Speaker 2: yarder in each of their two playoff games. So the

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Speaker 2: Diner run defense trending downward a little. Playing Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: I don't think that you're going to all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: you know, pay more attention and try to show up

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Speaker 2: some of those things anymore than you know you can

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Speaker 2: without you know, giving up more against the pass. So

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Speaker 2: you should still see some vulnerabilities for San Francisco on

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Speaker 2: the ground. And then you know Patrick Mahomes, we know

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Speaker 2: what he could do as an underdog and all those

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Speaker 2: kind of things.

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Speaker 1: And San Francisco is favored.

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Speaker 2: But if the Kansas City Chiefs were to have the

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Speaker 2: edge or win the game or whatever not, you know,

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Speaker 2: you would project those carries to tick down for Pachecko,

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Speaker 2: for McCaffrey, and tick up for Pachecko. Right now, McCaffrey

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Speaker 2: projected for about two more carries than Pachecko. His carry

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Speaker 2: props eighteen and a half Patchecko's sixteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: But like if you flip the the spread, for example,

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Speaker 2: you say, let's say Kansas City were to win by

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Speaker 2: two or something like that, maybe a lot closer to

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Speaker 2: even in terms of projected carries in this game. So

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Speaker 2: I think Pachecko's ODG should be closer to plus one thirty,

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Speaker 2: so it's still plus one seventy. I love it at

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Speaker 2: that number, and I think there is a little bit

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Speaker 2: of value there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I like that one.

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Speaker 3: And I think when it comes to McCaffrey's probably gonna

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Speaker 3: see like every running back carry for the Niners, but

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Speaker 3: in these spots, you know they're gonna want to get

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Speaker 3: Debo some more design rush attempts. So like, I think

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Speaker 3: he specifically could eat in the CMC's workload and hurt

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Speaker 3: his ceiling, which is what this market's all about.

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Speaker 1: All right, we're going for your next one.

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Speaker 3: I'm going with another punter prop Tommy Townsend. His shortest

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Speaker 3: punt to be over thirty six and a half yards,

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Speaker 3: so I don't think he's gonna have any punts under

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Speaker 3: thirty six and a half yards here. Only nine of

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Speaker 3: his sixty nine punts this year have stayed under this,

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Speaker 3: So eighty seven percent of the time he's punting it

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Speaker 3: thirty seven yards or longer. You know, he's averaged more

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Speaker 3: punts the game than Wishnowski. He's averaged three and a

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Speaker 3: half punts per game. They're both projected to see right

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Speaker 3: around four punts, so well, you know he should see

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Speaker 3: you know, more punts in this matchup. It is a

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Speaker 3: tougher matchup than the Chiefs usually face. Just an extra

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Speaker 3: half punt isn't a big of a deal. But you know,

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Speaker 3: pro this, we don't want him punting the ball like

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Speaker 3: six times or something like that, because it's more likely

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Speaker 3: to have a short one. But he's also going to

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Speaker 3: benefit from punting at Allegiance in Vegas. Like I said,

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Speaker 3: typically we see punters average one to one and a

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Speaker 3: half more yards on average. And Town said, you know,

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Speaker 3: he's benefited from punting indoors this year. Outdoors he's averaging

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Speaker 3: forty six yards of punt indoors it's fifty yards. And

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Speaker 3: in fact, you know, only or twelve of his thirteen

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Speaker 3: punts indoors have cleared this number. So he's punting higher

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Speaker 3: than this at a ninety two percent rate, which is

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Speaker 3: higher than his overall season number. So I'm showing his

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Speaker 3: meet in you know, coloser a thirty eight and a

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Speaker 3: half I think would make sense for this prop with

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Speaker 3: a fifty nine percent chance he doesn't have a punt

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Speaker 3: going or this. But I think when you factor in

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Speaker 3: you know that this game is indoors, I think that

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Speaker 3: helps a bit. So I would say probably a sixty

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Speaker 3: sixty three percent chance somewhere in that range that this

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Speaker 3: one can as well.

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Speaker 2: Uh, just a quick question for shortest punt props if

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Speaker 2: there is no if there are no punts, does that

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Speaker 2: count as action?

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Speaker 3: Still I'm under so I'm always taking worst case scenario,

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Speaker 3: so I'm assuming that so if if if he doesn't

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Speaker 3: have a punt, I'm guessing it would be a push.

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Speaker 3: I think you know, books might have different rules for that. Okay,

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Speaker 3: I'm having you know, it's about a two percent chance

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Speaker 3: he doesn't have a punt, so it probably won't be

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Speaker 3: you know, common occurrence. But I'm already under the se

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Speaker 3: So again I'm doing worst care scenario where if he

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Speaker 3: doesn't have a punt, I'm grading as a loss, and

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Speaker 3: I'm still showing a fifty nine percent chance. So if

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Speaker 3: the book does say like, if there's no punt, this

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Speaker 3: is a void, I would actually say this is closer

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Speaker 3: to a you know, sixty three sixty four percent chance

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Speaker 3: of clearing it. So, yeah, that's a great question. I

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Speaker 3: didn't find anything out there. I think in the past

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Speaker 3: I have found that it's like if there's no punt,

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Speaker 3: it's just no action.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 3: So but again for the worst case, I'm assuming worst

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Speaker 3: case scenario that that is action and we're still showing

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Speaker 3: some value on this.

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Speaker 1: I like it.

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Speaker 2: My second prop is going to be the Chiefs first

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Speaker 2: team to use a challenge at minus one fifteen. I

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Speaker 2: think this should be closer to minus one forty. Now,

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Speaker 2: there is always a chance you just don't get action

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Speaker 2: on this if neither team uses a challenge. But for

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Speaker 2: their careers or you know, reading, Shanahan aren't too far

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Speaker 2: off in their use of challenges. But the last three

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Speaker 2: years in particular, it's been trending toward Shanahan using less

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Speaker 2: challenges and Andy Reid kind of stay in pat So

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Speaker 2: over the last three seasons, Andy Reid has used seventeen

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Speaker 2: challenges in sixty regular season or playoff games, so averaging

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Speaker 2: about point to eight challenges per game, whereas Shanahan last

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Speaker 2: three years just twelve challenges in fifty nine regular and

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Speaker 2: postseason games.

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Speaker 1: So that's just point two zero.

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Speaker 2: So if you kind of factor those together, you get

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Speaker 2: about a fifty eight percent chance of you know, if

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Speaker 2: there's a challenge read more likely to be using the

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Speaker 2: first one. So books are pricing it's kind of even.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing, you know, one fifteen for the Chiefs of

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Speaker 2: one ten for the Niners, or vice versa. But I

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Speaker 2: think there should be a little bit more skewed in

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Speaker 2: favor of Andy Reid to use his first to use

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Speaker 2: the challenge first. So give me the Chiefs to use

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Speaker 2: the first at minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 3: Love it, I love, I love these ones. I love

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Speaker 3: the first time out. Unfortunately I did a deep dive

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Speaker 3: on that and it's literally a coin flip. Both coaches

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Speaker 3: just fly through timeouts there, you know, they waste them

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Speaker 3: at the same exact rate, so I couldn't find any

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Speaker 3: value there. This is interesting. I'll probably be joining you

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Speaker 3: on this. Love it well, this could be.

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Speaker 2: Also a tiebreaker in that market, because if you lose

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Speaker 2: a challenge, Yeah, if you're the first, like if the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs are more likely to use the talent a challenge

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Speaker 2: just by, you're also more likely to lose a challenge first,

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Speaker 2: which would then be a timeout.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, no, last year, just I love the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: Unfortunately it didn't hit, but Reid Reid is good. They

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Speaker 3: just uses timeouts like they're cheeseburgers. He uses challenges so

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Speaker 3: that I want something like this to sweat. So I'm

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Speaker 3: going to join you on this.

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Speaker 2: This podcast is proudly presented by bet MGM. Used bonus

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one year older.

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Speaker 2: You know we problem call one eight hundred gambler, All right,

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Speaker 2: third one, Where are you going?

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Speaker 3: I've got a defensive player, prop. I'm going with Sharvarius

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Speaker 3: Ward under four and a half tackles and a sis.

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Speaker 3: You can get that minus one twenty right now. He's

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Speaker 3: been held under this in ten of seventeen full games.

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Speaker 3: So there was a game he left early, and then

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Speaker 3: week eighteen he barely played. So I omitted those, so

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Speaker 3: he stayed under this in fifty nine percent of his

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Speaker 3: full games. However, this is a matchup where he might

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Speaker 3: not have as many tackle opportunities as usual. You know,

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Speaker 3: he's typically going to be covering whichever Chiefs wide receivers

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Speaker 3: lined up on the far right, which is where Ward's

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Speaker 3: going to be over ninety percent of the time. And

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Speaker 3: for Shee Rice, obviously he's the danger in this. You know,

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Speaker 3: he's going to rack up the receptions, but he lines

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Speaker 3: up on the right side the least just around twenty

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Speaker 3: percent of the time, so it's likely Ward will beyond

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Speaker 3: you know MBS and or Justin Watson for most of

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Speaker 3: the game. And you know he's in the nine Ers'

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Speaker 3: best corner, so it would make sense for the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: to kind of scheme that up. And you know, let

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Speaker 3: you know, Rice and Kelsey have you know, the weaker

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Speaker 3: matchups inside or on the left side. So you know,

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Speaker 3: both NBS and Watson are low target wide receivers and

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Speaker 3: they tend to run routes downfield, so that could take

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Speaker 3: Ward out of the play a lot of the time

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Speaker 3: where he might be involved in like a Pacheco screen

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Speaker 3: pass or Kelsey target over the middle, but if if

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Speaker 3: they're going deep, it's kind of take him out of

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Speaker 3: the play more often than not. So having said that,

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Speaker 3: you know, I have him projected around one and a

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Speaker 3: half tackles in the run game and about two and

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Speaker 3: a half in the passing game, but so four tackles.

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Speaker 3: But again, I think like he's more likely to have

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Speaker 3: a four game in this market, So I have him

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Speaker 3: run a sixty one percent chance he stays under four

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Speaker 3: and a half tackles in the sis here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's that's really interesting because you know, I

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Speaker 2: would have thought, you know, looking at okay, how are

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Speaker 2: teams attack in San Francisco on defense, you know, running outside,

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Speaker 2: which is what teams have been really successful with, I

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Speaker 2: would have thought that would have kind of negatively impacted Ward.

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Speaker 2: But I just that he is, you know, his game

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Speaker 2: against Detroit where you know, they were really kind of

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Speaker 2: exploiting that and he only had a one combined tackle

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Speaker 2: and assist in that game.

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Speaker 1: And I mean that's probably because you know, they didn't

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Speaker 1: fare too well on those runs to the outside.

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Speaker 2: But you know that kind of speaks to you know,

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Speaker 2: that's probably your biggest danger here, and it's another way

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Speaker 2: to fade Justin Watson, which I feel like you've been

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Speaker 2: doing all playoff lunch.

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Speaker 3: One of my hobbies is fading Justin Watson in the

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Speaker 3: right spots.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's uh, well, fun fact Justin Watson. I believe

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Speaker 2: he was on that Tampa Bay team that won the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl against the Chiefs. Uh yeah, and then he

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Speaker 2: was on the Chiefs last year. Right, So like he's uh,

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Speaker 2: he's got quite a little like quite a little uh

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Speaker 2: what three I will be three and four years if

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Speaker 2: you can, if you get this one.

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Speaker 3: So I'm still fading him, but that is impressive.

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Speaker 1: He's a winner. He's not a guy yet, He's not

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Speaker 1: gonna put up the numbers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, I'll close it out with a kickoff return.

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Speaker 2: And this kind of speaks to what you were talking

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Speaker 2: about with you know, the indoor stadium and whatnot. I'm

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Speaker 2: going longest kickoff return under twenty seven and a half

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Speaker 2: for you know, both teams, and the reason being, I

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Speaker 2: think you don't see many kicks returned in this game

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Speaker 2: Harrison Butker for the season is seventh best out of

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Speaker 2: thirty three qualifiers according to Pro Football Focus in percentage

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Speaker 2: of kickoffs return just fifteen point eight percent of his

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Speaker 2: kickoffs have been returned. And then Moody for the Niners

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Speaker 2: earlier in the year, they were trying to you know,

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Speaker 2: pin opponents deep and have them, you know, return kicks

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Speaker 2: from you know, like the one or two yard line.

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Speaker 2: So his first sixty eight kicks, thirty one or forty

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Speaker 2: six percent of them were returned. But they's gotta switch

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Speaker 2: strategy up. I remember reading something in uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: from a beat writer about that, uh, you know, kind

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Speaker 2: of late in the year. So that's kind of played out,

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Speaker 2: and we've seen just four of his last thirty four

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Speaker 2: kicks return just twelve percent. Now you're going to be

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Speaker 2: playing indoors and for the year, uh, Moody outdoors, thirty

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Speaker 2: three percent of his kicks have been returned, but indoors

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Speaker 2: that cuts in half to just sixteen point seven percent.

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Speaker 2: So I think you have a lot of things working

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Speaker 2: in favor for Moody to kind of be similar to

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Speaker 2: Bucker and that he's not really gonna let many kicks

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Speaker 2: get returned. And then if you just look at the

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Speaker 2: prior stats for both of these teams, San Francisco had

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Speaker 2: a kick return of twenty eight or more in seven

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Speaker 2: of nineteen or thirty seven percent, Kansas City only three

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Speaker 2: of their twenty games of fifteen percent.

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Speaker 1: And I think if they if.

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Speaker 2: San Francisco puts Debo back because he's obviously a better

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Speaker 2: kick returner, then you know the cloud. But if they

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Speaker 2: put him back there, it's just gonna give even more

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Speaker 2: incentive for Bucker to just boom it out of the

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Speaker 2: end zone. And it's the game is indoors. So I

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Speaker 2: think there's a really good chance you only see you know,

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Speaker 2: one or two kickoffs total for the whole game. Uh,

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Speaker 2: and so that gives a really good chance for this number.

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Speaker 1: So I bet it.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's hard to kind of calculate this because

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Speaker 2: it's such an obscure market, but yeah, I think at

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Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half, I think you have some

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00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 2: clear value you know, up into like minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: And then you know, if it was like a yard lower,

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Speaker 2: I would still bet it at like, you know, even

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Speaker 2: juice like minus one ten at most pot, Like I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't go crazy. But it's really it's just really tough

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Speaker 2: to kind of calculate the true the true value. But

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Speaker 2: I do show some decent value here just because I

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Speaker 2: don't think many kicks will be returned as as typical,

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Speaker 2: especially with the Niners trending down in terms of even

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Speaker 2: like kind of planning for that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I'll have to look into this. I trust

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Speaker 3: you on the under here. And Richie James has been,

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Speaker 3: you know, one of the worst kickoff returners in the league,

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Speaker 3: so that'll help. Even if Moody yeah doesn't take a

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Speaker 3: touch back. It looks like Richarde James has been pretty poor.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, he Yeah, this is a fun one.

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Speaker 1: Again.

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Speaker 3: I think Allegiant Stadium is just a really good place

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Speaker 3: for kickers because right indoors obviously in the elevation is

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Speaker 3: probably somewhat of a factor. So yeah, that would play

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Speaker 3: in here as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, let me recap each of our three props.

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Speaker 2: Sean, you have Mitch witch Shnowski, the punter for the

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Speaker 2: Niners longest punt over fifty five and a half yards.

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Speaker 2: Your second is Tommy Townsend, the punter for the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: shortest punt over thirty six and a half yards. And

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Speaker 2: then Shivarius Ward, the corner for San Francisco under four

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Speaker 2: and a half tackles plus assists. I have Isaiah Piciceco

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Speaker 2: most rushing yards in the game at plus one seventy,

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs as the first team to use a challenge

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Speaker 2: at minus one fifteen, and the longest kickoff return by

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Speaker 2: either team in this game under twenty seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: So that's gonna do it.

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Speaker 2: For our Super Bowl fifty eight Early Props episode of

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Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM. For more

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00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 2: fantasy content from Shawn and I, be sure to check

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Speaker 2: out the Fantasy Flex. We'll have our full fantasy preview

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00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,199
Speaker 2: episode looking at how to play the Super Bowl matchup

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00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 2: in DFS next week. If you're into betting, my weekly

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00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,480
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00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 2: instead of midweek on Thursday morning like we usually do,

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Speaker 2: so look out for that a little bit later.

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