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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving guys.

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast, a holiday episode.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 2: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 2: at Sports Talking Matt, and thank you for listening, and

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Speaker 2: thank you for watching on this holiday. Whether it be

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Speaker 2: to fade or follow, or just make it part of

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Speaker 2: your everyday routine and keep it somewhat of the norm.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate it. I'm guessing some of you guys are

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Speaker 2: making runs this morning, running out for coffee, bagels, pastry, donuts,

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Speaker 2: whatever it might be. And you got to sneak the

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Speaker 2: podcast in. And people are like listening to a gambling

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Speaker 2: podcast on Thanksgiving. Well, yes you are, or you're watching

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Speaker 2: Thank you wherever you are, and I know that globally

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Speaker 2: for you guys who are in Canada, or you guys

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Speaker 2: are in England or wherever you're watching this podcast. I

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Speaker 2: know you guys, and it's just a Thursday for you.

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Speaker 2: So these are football days for you, three games to

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Speaker 2: get into. I've got bets on all three. What happened

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Speaker 2: last night, I have no idea. It is currently eight

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Speaker 2: fifteen Pacific time. I got a prep man. I'm making

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Speaker 2: a lot of food tomorrow. I can't sit around and

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Speaker 2: wait for these games to end. It looks like Golden

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Speaker 2: State's gonna lose, but who knows. It's the NBA. They

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Speaker 2: can come back, and who knows that we caught two

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Speaker 2: close four and a half no step. That was kind

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Speaker 2: of a bummer with that. But San Diego State lost

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Speaker 2: to Oregon pretty badly by ten. The no score in

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Speaker 2: the first period for Colorado and Vegas. So it could

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Speaker 2: be an zero and three day for us on a Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: but not that big of a deal. We've been We've

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Speaker 2: been hot recently, so I would take us down a

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Speaker 2: little bit, but we can still very much have a

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Speaker 2: winning week in a winning month. As we head towards here,

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Speaker 2: three games all in the NFL. There's a lot of

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Speaker 2: college basketball. You can bet college hoops if you want,

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Speaker 2: but I'm gonna be honest. I'm watching just football and

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Speaker 2: I want to have some action. I don't want to

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Speaker 2: have a lot of action, but I want to have

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Speaker 2: some action here on every game. Going to get heavy

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Speaker 2: in the prop market, Okay, I apologize. I did not

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Speaker 2: put the NBA props on the betting pros app yesterday,

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Speaker 2: there was nothing I liked. There was nothing that jumped

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Speaker 2: out at me. It's the holidays. It was busy. I

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Speaker 2: couldn't do the same amount of research is what I

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Speaker 2: normally do. And I don't put out fake plays and

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Speaker 2: don't just put out a play. To put out a play,

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Speaker 2: I have to like it. Nothing I liked, so didn't

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Speaker 2: put out a player prop yesterday. I won't put out

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Speaker 2: player props today. I mean, it's it's a holiday. But

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Speaker 2: let's get into the three games. Let's get into the

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Speaker 2: three NFL games tripleheader for us here today on a

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Speaker 2: Thanksgiving But first and foremost, it is DraftKings Pick six time.

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Speaker 2: DraftKings dot com slash promos. All right, let's talk about

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Speaker 2: the first game and the Bears and the Lions. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so this number. There's no live stream today, by the way,

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Speaker 2: So no livestream on Thursday. No Thursday night football live stream,

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Speaker 2: We're not doing that. So nothing on the holiday obviously,

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Speaker 2: so we won't have anything. From a prop back perspective,

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Speaker 2: if you're looking for the for the stream, the next

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Speaker 2: live stream will probably be, well, well, it will be

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Speaker 2: Sunday morning, Sunday at noon in nine am Eastern noon

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Speaker 2: eastern nine am Pacific for me on for week thirteen.

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Speaker 2: But nothing today for the NFL. On a Thursday Night

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Speaker 2: football or on Thursday in general. But Chicago is at Detroit.

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Speaker 2: This number was eleven and a half. This number was

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Speaker 2: ridiculously high. Really, it was too high. I mean it

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Speaker 2: was historically high. The Lions at eleven and a half

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Speaker 2: would be the biggest favorite on Thanksgiving since nineteen sixty eight,

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Speaker 2: when they were twelve point favorites against the Eagles. This

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Speaker 2: number has now crashed down to nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: Why because Dan Campbell and Jared gofferre zero and three

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Speaker 2: straight up together and they're two to one against the spread.

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Speaker 2: The Lions and the Cowboys together, by the way, having

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Speaker 2: gone two and oh against the spread since Thanksgiving of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, and they both haven't gone two and

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Speaker 2: oh straight up on a Thanksgiving since nineteen ninety four.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so it's been a while.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to what happens on Thanksgiving, chalk has

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Speaker 2: generally ruled since two thousand and four. According to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network, favorites on Thanksgiving are forty eight and nine

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Speaker 2: straight up, thirty eight and nineteen against the spread. Favorites

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Speaker 2: of over ten points are nine and oh ats on

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Speaker 2: Thanksgiving since two thousand and five, and eleven and oh

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Speaker 2: ats in the Wildcard era since nineteen ninety. In the

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Speaker 2: wildcart era since nineteen ninety, favorites of seven points are more.

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Speaker 2: On Thanksgiving are twenty nine and five straight up and

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Speaker 2: twenty five and nine against the spread. This is all

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Speaker 2: bad news for the Bears, by the way, real bad

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Speaker 2: news for the Bears.

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Speaker 1: So what am I doing? Well?

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Speaker 2: The Lions are banged up, like really banged up, and

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Speaker 2: I think the Bears can hang around now. I don't

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Speaker 2: think they'll win the game, but everyone's gonna say lay it,

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Speaker 2: lay it, lay it.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Chicago's won three and one on the road. Ats not good.

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Speaker 2: Detroit's four and one at home. They've won two games

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Speaker 2: in a row against the spread. They have one loss

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Speaker 2: on the year. That's against Tampa. That's it at home two.

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Speaker 2: We faded them that week. They beat Indy by eighteen,

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Speaker 2: beat Jacksonville by forty six, beat Houston by three. Didn't

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Speaker 2: cover that game, beat Green Bay by ten, bat Tensey

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Speaker 2: by thirty eight. I mean, they just they've killed people,

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Speaker 2: just absolutely kill people.

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Speaker 1: But the injury report is legitimate.

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Speaker 2: I'm on Same Brown, I'm on Ross Saint Brown is

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Speaker 2: questionable with a knee. Dave Montgomery running back questionable with

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Speaker 2: a shoulder DJ Reider defensive line questionable with an illness.

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Speaker 2: Tacker to tackle Taylor Decker is questionable with a shoulder injury.

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Speaker 2: Terry on Arnold, one of the best corners, is questionable

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Speaker 2: with a groin injury. I mean, this team is banged

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Speaker 2: up with some pretty big important players.

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Speaker 1: Bears have got a lot of questions going on right now.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna same game tease this, Okay, I don't think

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Speaker 2: this is going to be a high scoring game. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go ahead and do a same game teaser on

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Speaker 2: this one, and I'm gonna take the Bears from fifteen

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Speaker 2: and a half or from nine and a half up

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Speaker 2: to fifteen and a half, and I'm going to go

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Speaker 2: under fifty four here for this. Fifty four is a

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Speaker 2: big number, Okay, that's a really big, big number. And

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Speaker 2: I just think that's too high of a number. Forty

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Speaker 2: eight teasing it up to fifty four. The under at

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Speaker 2: home or sorry on the road rather is four and

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Speaker 2: one for the Bears for Chicago, sorry for Detroit. Brother

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Speaker 2: at home, they're three and two to the over. But

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Speaker 2: three of the last four games for the Lions have

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Speaker 2: gone under fifty and a half, forty seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: forty nine and a half, and forty eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're going all the way to fifty four.

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Speaker 2: That would be the highest mark, highest total of any

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Speaker 2: game involving the Lions.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they went over.

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Speaker 2: Against Dallas on the road, it was fifty three, went

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Speaker 2: over by three points. Against Minnesota, it was forty nine

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Speaker 2: and a half, it went over by ten and a

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Speaker 2: half points. And the real choker was when they scored

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Speaker 2: fifty two points against Tennessee over by twenty and a

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Speaker 2: half points. Don't see that happening here. I think the

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Speaker 2: Bears can keep the game within two touchdowns, I really do.

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Speaker 2: I think that they can keep it close, and the

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Speaker 2: game goes under Bears plus fifteen and a half teas

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Speaker 2: with the under fifty four for one point two units.

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Speaker 2: Second game, Dallas against the Giants. I don't know what

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Speaker 2: to do with this game. This game is so ugly.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's betting the under. I don't really understand why everyone's

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Speaker 2: betting the under. So the Cowboys are one in four

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Speaker 2: ATS in their last five games. On Thanksgiving, they're two

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Speaker 2: and eleven ATS and their last thirteen games dating back

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Speaker 2: to twenty eleven on Thanksgiving, they failed to cover the

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Speaker 2: spread by an average of nine points. Dallas won and

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Speaker 2: covered on Thanksgiving last year, but they haven't won and

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Speaker 2: covered in consecutive Thanksgivings since nine with Tony Romo as

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Speaker 2: the quarterback favorites. As I mentioned before, thirty six and

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Speaker 2: nineteen ats on Thanksgivings in two thousand and five. But

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys are six and nine, so they've been really,

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Speaker 2: really bad. However, in the last twenty years, only three

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Speaker 2: games on Thanksgiving have closed with a total of under forty.

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Speaker 2: This game currently is thirty seven thirty seven. We're two

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Speaker 2: and one to the over the Bears and the Lions.

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Speaker 2: It was thirty seven and a half twenty nineteen, final

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Speaker 2: was twenty four to twenty. In two thousand and six,

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Speaker 2: Broncos at Chiefs was thirty nine nineteen to ten final

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Speaker 2: under but I know six same year Bucks and Cowboys

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Speaker 2: was thirty nine, final was thirty eight ten. I just

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Speaker 2: think we're talking about offense here. I mean the last

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Speaker 2: two games with the Cowboys, they've scored thirty four and

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Speaker 2: given up thirty four. Both games have gone over. I

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Speaker 2: know the Giants offense has been garbage I know Tommy

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Speaker 2: Cutlins is a joke.

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Speaker 1: I get it, all of it.

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Speaker 2: But they give up thirty points to Tampa, they can

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Speaker 2: give up thirty points to Dallas. No sweat here. I

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Speaker 2: think people are going the wrong way with this. I'm

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Speaker 2: going over. I think this is turnovers, interceptions, ugly bad

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Speaker 2: football Dallas and Washington.

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Speaker 1: I mean, everyone's like.

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Speaker 2: Well, for three quarters it was really low scoring. Yeah

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Speaker 2: it wasn't though. The game flew over by fifteen and

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Speaker 2: a half points.

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Speaker 1: I get it.

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Speaker 2: The fourth quarter is not gonna happen again, and over

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Speaker 2: time is not gonna happen again. But I don't need

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Speaker 2: it to. Total was forty four and a half last

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Speaker 2: week against Washington, over by fifteen and a half points.

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Speaker 2: This total is thirty seven, eh over, we're playing over

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Speaker 2: on Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: We're playing points.

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Speaker 2: We're playing public over thirty seven for Dallas and the

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Speaker 2: Giants here in the first game, sorry, second, the second game,

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Speaker 2: and for our third and final game with Miami at

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Speaker 2: Green Bay. I'm just gonna follow the trend, okay, I

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Speaker 2: told you favorites are thirty six and nineteen ats on Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 2: and we have two tak of aaloa. Who's just can't

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Speaker 2: play in the cold. Okay, let's be frank. Tua cannot

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Speaker 2: play in the cold. Packers haven't played on Thanksgiving since

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Speaker 2: two thousand. They're four and four ATS when they have

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Speaker 2: done that. Green maybe the Lions as big dogs last year,

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Speaker 2: second biggest upset on Thanksgiving since nineteen eighty. Unders have

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Speaker 2: been a big thing Thanksgiving. Unders in night games eleven

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Speaker 2: and six. Don't mind a playing the under in this

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Speaker 2: game at all. Totals forty three or higher eight and

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Speaker 2: three to the under. Do you want to play the

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Speaker 2: under in this it's forty seven and a half forty eight.

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Speaker 2: Don't mind an underplay in this game at all. Between

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Speaker 2: Green Bay and Miami, I just don't trust the Dolphins

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Speaker 2: at all. I mean this is the dolphins first game

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Speaker 2: on Thanksgiving since twenty eleven. I mean this is a

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Speaker 2: long time ago that they played there. But when it

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Speaker 2: comes to cold weather, Tua tongue Aloa has played thirteen

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Speaker 2: games at night He's four and nine ATS. Two morning games,

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Speaker 2: he's oh in two ATS one Friday night game. Want

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Speaker 2: to oh straight up? A total of sixteen prime time

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Speaker 2: or standalone games, he's five and eleven ATS in those games.

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Speaker 2: And when it comes to cold weather. We know what

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Speaker 2: Tua I mean. It's just it doesn't work for him.

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Speaker 2: Tua has played in forty three temperatures are colder four

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Speaker 2: times with the Dolphins. He's owing four straight up, one

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Speaker 2: in three ats, failing to cover by eighteen points. It's

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Speaker 2: gonna be cold at Lambeau. Tua score total thirty nine

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Speaker 2: points in three games that had wind. In those games,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be windy.

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Speaker 1: It's really bad.

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Speaker 2: In thirty two temperature games are colder in the franchise

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Speaker 2: history for the Dolphins, there are eleven and twenty eight

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Speaker 2: straight up, losing their last nine games in cold temperatures.

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Speaker 2: Last time they won was in twenty thirteen. Over the

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Speaker 2: last twenty years, the Dolphins have played twenty seven games

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Speaker 2: in temperatures lower than forty degrees. They're one in ten

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Speaker 2: straight up in the last eleven games, eight and nineteen

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Speaker 2: straight up in those twenty seven games, one in ten

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Speaker 2: in their last eleven games. Look, you can say, fade

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Speaker 2: the narrative whatever you want, Public Square, I don't care.

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Speaker 2: Green Bay minus three laying it with the Packers.

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Speaker 1: Three bets for.

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Speaker 2: Us on a Thanksgiving same game teaser Bears plus fifteen

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Speaker 2: and a half with the under fifty four for one

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Speaker 2: point two units, Dallas and the Giants over thirty seven

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Speaker 2: for one point one units, and the Green Bay Packers

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Speaker 2: laying three at home up against.

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Speaker 1: The Miami Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: Those are our plays here on a Thanksgiving holiday. Thank you,

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice audience. I'm thankful for you, guys. I'm

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Speaker 2: thankful for your time, your support, your enthusiasm every day.

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Speaker 1: Coming here listening very much. Appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Help you and yours have a very healthy and happy

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Speaker 2: and filling Thanksgiving. Let's watch some football. We're back at

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Speaker 2: it on a Black Friday. Coming up for tomorrow. My

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Speaker 2: min's Matt Parol. Follow me because all my socials at

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Speaker 2: sports Doc Matt every morning. It is The Diligence Podcast

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Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings