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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters.
Speaker 1: I'm Katherine Cowdery. The S and P FI founded has
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Speaker 1: seven And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Yes, getting ready
Speaker 1: for the one and forty second running of the Kentucky
Speaker 1: Derby that will be tomorrow at Churchill Downs in Kentucky.
Speaker 1: Here to help us understand the race and maybe help
Speaker 1: us select the winner is Dan Zucker. He is the
Speaker 1: co founder of predict form dot com. He's joining us
Speaker 1: from blue Chip Farm in Wallkill, New York. And joining
Speaker 1: me here in the studio is Gary Edel. He's a
Speaker 1: Bloomberg staffer and a bit of a racing enthusiast and
Speaker 1: a handicapping tournament player. Gentlemen, great to have you with
Speaker 1: us here, Dan Zucker, I want you to begin by
Speaker 1: just explaining for people that may not be horse race
Speaker 1: racing of ficionados, twenty horses. That sounds like a lot
Speaker 1: of horse flesh on the on the track. Yeah, sure,
Speaker 1: as Tim and Gary, how are you, my friends? That's
Speaker 1: the number that you get with the Kentucky Derby. It's
Speaker 1: the it's the one race a year where you see
Speaker 1: twenty horses and it it certainly does make for traffic problems.
Speaker 1: You know, a lot of a lot of contact and
Speaker 1: banging around throughout the race. We'll tell us about the horses,
Speaker 1: because I know that you have some favorites, and I'm
Speaker 1: wondering if you could tell us a little bit about
Speaker 1: something called a pace figure and how that figures into
Speaker 1: your calculations. Sure well, and I was gonna say, you know,
Speaker 1: we maybe maybe before we dive into the pace figure.
Speaker 1: I just found that, you know, when you mentioned the
Speaker 1: twenty horses. Something that's really interesting this year, and Gary,
Speaker 1: you probably noticed this is there are three stallions that
Speaker 1: represent half the field. It's the three stack. Two stallions
Speaker 1: each have three three offspring running. One stallion's name is
Speaker 1: Uncle Moe, the other stallion's name is Tappit, and a
Speaker 1: third stallion named giants Causeway has two suns as well
Speaker 1: as a great grandson. Uh another stallion named as Candia.
Speaker 1: His father is Giant's Causeway. So in essence, you have
Speaker 1: three stallions representing nine horses, which is a really rare
Speaker 1: thing in a in a race like this, So it's
Speaker 1: kind of like it's all in the family, all right, Gary,
Speaker 1: So tell us a little bit about how you approach
Speaker 1: handicapping a race like the Derby, you know it, as
Speaker 1: Dan has started off with, I like looking at the pace.
Speaker 1: It's just like if you're running a track race, you
Speaker 1: have everyone has different styles of running. You have some
Speaker 1: track people, you have some runners that like to go
Speaker 1: out to the lead, some people like to go a
Speaker 1: new pack, some people like to just sit back and
Speaker 1: let the speed go and just close on them. So
Speaker 1: I like to really analyze the race looking at pace figures.
Speaker 1: And I know one of the things that I love
Speaker 1: about Dance product is he goes really deep into pace
Speaker 1: figures and his specialty is identifying the E two. What's
Speaker 1: the E two paste? Dan Sucker, what explain? How do
Speaker 1: you what is a pace figure? Well, so, essentially like
Speaker 1: in horse racing, horses are clothed at the quarter mile,
Speaker 1: a half mile, the mile, and then at the end
Speaker 1: of the race. And we evaluate races a race with generation,
Speaker 1: and we look at a horse's speed throughout the race,
Speaker 1: whether a horse is accelerating or decelerating. And grass races,
Speaker 1: horses start slow and they wind up going much faster
Speaker 1: at the end, whereas in dirt racing it's a game
Speaker 1: of deceleration. The first quarter is always faster than the
Speaker 1: second quarter, which is faster than the third quarter, which
Speaker 1: is faster than the end of the race. So we
Speaker 1: look at we have to look at pace in analyzing
Speaker 1: the race to determine whether or not, you know, as
Speaker 1: Gary mentioned, the horses up front will be able to
Speaker 1: hold on, or whether it's likely that somebody from way
Speaker 1: off the pace will come up at the very end.
Speaker 1: So can you tell us the horses that you believe
Speaker 1: are gard to perform the best based on this pace
Speaker 1: figure analysis? Yeah, well, I mean I'll kind of give
Speaker 1: you are are quick fifty foot level analysis and then
Speaker 1: you know you can go to kind of Garry to
Speaker 1: see where he sits. But from our perspective, um, there
Speaker 1: are two main horses in here that look to be
Speaker 1: better than the rest of the field. The first one
Speaker 1: is nye Quist, who is the big favorite, um, you know,
Speaker 1: undefeated seven for seven and he comes into the race
Speaker 1: off a very strong last race. The second horse is
Speaker 1: called Outwork, ironically enough, there both by Uncle Mo and
Speaker 1: Uncle mos Stallion. Uncle Mo's father was Indian Charlie. The
Speaker 1: big knock on Indian Charlie, which then filters down to
Speaker 1: both of his sons, is that no Indian Charlie has
Speaker 1: ever won a race going a mile and a quarter,
Speaker 1: so it's something new for the family. The other horse
Speaker 1: that we have would be outworked, and he's got Johnny
Speaker 1: Laska is one of the benefest riders in the country,
Speaker 1: comes from the best trainer in the country and Todd Fletcher,
Speaker 1: and he's likely to sit just off the pace, beyond
Speaker 1: the front. So if you're watching the race on television,
Speaker 1: the horses that were projecting are gonna win are going
Speaker 1: to be in the front of the pace most to
Speaker 1: the race where they're gonna be fifty different camera angles
Speaker 1: because it's gonna be broadcast on NBC of course, so
Speaker 1: that'll be around five fifty Eastern time tomorrow, Gary. So,
Speaker 1: based on the information that you've been able to assemble,
Speaker 1: do you concur with what Dan Zucker is saying about
Speaker 1: the pace of the race. Well, first off, I've been
Speaker 1: in quite a few tournaments with Dan, and if Dan
Speaker 1: says something, I'm listening because he knows this stuff. And
Speaker 1: one of the things I find interesting in this race
Speaker 1: is the lack of speed, and that's what's gonna make
Speaker 1: this race very hard to handicap. In my opinion, last
Speaker 1: year you had basically had the horses that came in first,
Speaker 1: second and third running first, second and third around the
Speaker 1: track the whole way. This year, we really don't have
Speaker 1: that much speed, and that's gonna hinder a lot of
Speaker 1: the horses coming from behind. I really like I'm going
Speaker 1: with Dan with Outwork. I know Dave Papa Papa Dulas
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg also was talking about at Work as a
Speaker 1: really good value play. I'm gonna also use um exaggerator.
Speaker 1: I think he has that same type of running style.
Speaker 1: He's gonna just sit in midpack. Winner of the Santa
Speaker 1: Anita Dert exactly. He's gonna sit midpack, and I think
Speaker 1: when the upfront horses thought to die, he's gonna make
Speaker 1: his move. Uh eight rated at eight to one. Out
Speaker 1: Work at fifteen to one, a night quest, as you said,
Speaker 1: the favorite three to one, and we gotta go with value.
Speaker 1: So I'll probably be looking at out the out myself,
Speaker 1: all right. Thanks very much, darry edel joining us a
Speaker 1: Bloomberg staffer and enthusiast when it comes to handicapping and
Speaker 1: the handicapped tournaments are thanks also to Dan Zucker Co
Speaker 1: founder predict form dot com. Remember the Derby is tomorrow
Speaker 1: in Churchill Downs. This is Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on
Speaker 1: taking Stock. A disappointing payroll report from the Department of Labor.
Speaker 1: Does this signal a greater downturn in hiring? We'll find out.
Speaker 1: That's next on taking Stock.