WEBVTT - Predicteform's Zucker Favors Nyquist, Outwork for Derby (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Katherine Cowdery. The S and P FI founded has

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<v Speaker 1>down nine thirty seconds with the yield of one point

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<v Speaker 1>seven And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Yes, getting ready

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<v Speaker 1>for the one and forty second running of the Kentucky

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<v Speaker 1>Derby that will be tomorrow at Churchill Downs in Kentucky.

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<v Speaker 1>Here to help us understand the race and maybe help

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<v Speaker 1>us select the winner is Dan Zucker. He is the

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<v Speaker 1>co founder of predict form dot com. He's joining us

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<v Speaker 1>from blue Chip Farm in Wallkill, New York. And joining

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<v Speaker 1>me here in the studio is Gary Edel. He's a

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg staffer and a bit of a racing enthusiast and

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<v Speaker 1>a handicapping tournament player. Gentlemen, great to have you with

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<v Speaker 1>us here, Dan Zucker, I want you to begin by

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<v Speaker 1>just explaining for people that may not be horse race

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<v Speaker 1>racing of ficionados, twenty horses. That sounds like a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of horse flesh on the on the track. Yeah, sure,

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<v Speaker 1>as Tim and Gary, how are you, my friends? That's

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<v Speaker 1>the number that you get with the Kentucky Derby. It's

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<v Speaker 1>the it's the one race a year where you see

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<v Speaker 1>twenty horses and it it certainly does make for traffic problems.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, a lot of a lot of contact and

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<v Speaker 1>banging around throughout the race. We'll tell us about the horses,

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<v Speaker 1>because I know that you have some favorites, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>wondering if you could tell us a little bit about

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<v Speaker 1>something called a pace figure and how that figures into

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<v Speaker 1>your calculations. Sure well, and I was gonna say, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we maybe maybe before we dive into the pace figure.

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<v Speaker 1>I just found that, you know, when you mentioned the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty horses. Something that's really interesting this year, and Gary,

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<v Speaker 1>you probably noticed this is there are three stallions that

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<v Speaker 1>represent half the field. It's the three stack. Two stallions

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<v Speaker 1>each have three three offspring running. One stallion's name is

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<v Speaker 1>Uncle Moe, the other stallion's name is Tappit, and a

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<v Speaker 1>third stallion named giants Causeway has two suns as well

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<v Speaker 1>as a great grandson. Uh another stallion named as Candia.

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<v Speaker 1>His father is Giant's Causeway. So in essence, you have

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<v Speaker 1>three stallions representing nine horses, which is a really rare

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<v Speaker 1>thing in a in a race like this, So it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like it's all in the family, all right, Gary,

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<v Speaker 1>So tell us a little bit about how you approach

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<v Speaker 1>handicapping a race like the Derby, you know it, as

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<v Speaker 1>Dan has started off with, I like looking at the pace.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just like if you're running a track race, you

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<v Speaker 1>have everyone has different styles of running. You have some

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<v Speaker 1>track people, you have some runners that like to go

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<v Speaker 1>out to the lead, some people like to go a

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<v Speaker 1>new pack, some people like to just sit back and

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<v Speaker 1>let the speed go and just close on them. So

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<v Speaker 1>I like to really analyze the race looking at pace figures.

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<v Speaker 1>And I know one of the things that I love

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<v Speaker 1>about Dance product is he goes really deep into pace

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<v Speaker 1>figures and his specialty is identifying the E two. What's

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<v Speaker 1>the E two paste? Dan Sucker, what explain? How do

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<v Speaker 1>you what is a pace figure? Well, so, essentially like

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<v Speaker 1>in horse racing, horses are clothed at the quarter mile,

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<v Speaker 1>a half mile, the mile, and then at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the race. And we evaluate races a race with generation,

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<v Speaker 1>and we look at a horse's speed throughout the race,

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<v Speaker 1>whether a horse is accelerating or decelerating. And grass races,

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<v Speaker 1>horses start slow and they wind up going much faster

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<v Speaker 1>at the end, whereas in dirt racing it's a game

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<v Speaker 1>of deceleration. The first quarter is always faster than the

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<v Speaker 1>second quarter, which is faster than the third quarter, which

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<v Speaker 1>is faster than the end of the race. So we

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<v Speaker 1>look at we have to look at pace in analyzing

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<v Speaker 1>the race to determine whether or not, you know, as

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<v Speaker 1>Gary mentioned, the horses up front will be able to

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<v Speaker 1>hold on, or whether it's likely that somebody from way

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<v Speaker 1>off the pace will come up at the very end.

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<v Speaker 1>So can you tell us the horses that you believe

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<v Speaker 1>are gard to perform the best based on this pace

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<v Speaker 1>figure analysis? Yeah, well, I mean I'll kind of give

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<v Speaker 1>you are are quick fifty foot level analysis and then

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<v Speaker 1>you know you can go to kind of Garry to

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<v Speaker 1>see where he sits. But from our perspective, um, there

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<v Speaker 1>are two main horses in here that look to be

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<v Speaker 1>better than the rest of the field. The first one

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<v Speaker 1>is nye Quist, who is the big favorite, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>undefeated seven for seven and he comes into the race

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<v Speaker 1>off a very strong last race. The second horse is

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<v Speaker 1>called Outwork, ironically enough, there both by Uncle Mo and

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<v Speaker 1>Uncle mos Stallion. Uncle Mo's father was Indian Charlie. The

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<v Speaker 1>big knock on Indian Charlie, which then filters down to

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<v Speaker 1>both of his sons, is that no Indian Charlie has

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<v Speaker 1>ever won a race going a mile and a quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's something new for the family. The other horse

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<v Speaker 1>that we have would be outworked, and he's got Johnny

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<v Speaker 1>Laska is one of the benefest riders in the country,

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<v Speaker 1>comes from the best trainer in the country and Todd Fletcher,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's likely to sit just off the pace, beyond

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<v Speaker 1>the front. So if you're watching the race on television,

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<v Speaker 1>the horses that were projecting are gonna win are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be in the front of the pace most to

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<v Speaker 1>the race where they're gonna be fifty different camera angles

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<v Speaker 1>because it's gonna be broadcast on NBC of course, so

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<v Speaker 1>that'll be around five fifty Eastern time tomorrow, Gary. So,

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<v Speaker 1>based on the information that you've been able to assemble,

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<v Speaker 1>do you concur with what Dan Zucker is saying about

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<v Speaker 1>the pace of the race. Well, first off, I've been

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<v Speaker 1>in quite a few tournaments with Dan, and if Dan

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<v Speaker 1>says something, I'm listening because he knows this stuff. And

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<v Speaker 1>one of the things I find interesting in this race

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<v Speaker 1>is the lack of speed, and that's what's gonna make

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<v Speaker 1>this race very hard to handicap. In my opinion, last

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<v Speaker 1>year you had basically had the horses that came in first,

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<v Speaker 1>second and third running first, second and third around the

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<v Speaker 1>track the whole way. This year, we really don't have

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<v Speaker 1>that much speed, and that's gonna hinder a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the horses coming from behind. I really like I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>with Dan with Outwork. I know Dave Papa Papa Dulas

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg also was talking about at Work as a

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<v Speaker 1>really good value play. I'm gonna also use um exaggerator.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he has that same type of running style.

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<v Speaker 1>He's gonna just sit in midpack. Winner of the Santa

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<v Speaker 1>Anita Dert exactly. He's gonna sit midpack, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>when the upfront horses thought to die, he's gonna make

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<v Speaker 1>his move. Uh eight rated at eight to one. Out

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<v Speaker 1>Work at fifteen to one, a night quest, as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>the favorite three to one, and we gotta go with value.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'll probably be looking at out the out myself,

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<v Speaker 1>all right. Thanks very much, darry edel joining us a

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg staffer and enthusiast when it comes to handicapping and

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<v Speaker 1>the handicapped tournaments are thanks also to Dan Zucker Co

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<v Speaker 1>founder predict form dot com. Remember the Derby is tomorrow

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<v Speaker 1>in Churchill Downs. This is Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on

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<v Speaker 1>taking Stock. A disappointing payroll report from the Department of Labor.

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<v Speaker 1>Does this signal a greater downturn in hiring? We'll find out.

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<v Speaker 1>That's next on taking Stock.