1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 2 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus mobile, last, and on your radio. 3 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters. 4 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: I'm Katherine Cowdery. The S and P FI founded has 5 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: erased earlier losses. The smallest jobs gain in seven months 6 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 1: is raising doubts about the economy strength. The Labor Department 7 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: reports showed employers added one hundred sixty thousand workers in April, 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: missing the two hundred thousand jobs estimate that economists anticipated. 9 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:34,480 Speaker 1: The jobless rate was projected to ease, It held study 10 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: at five percent, while wage growth accelerated. We talked to 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg Radio. 12 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: Dow Industrial Average is currently up seventy four points four 13 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: tents of a percent at seventeen thousand, seven hundred thirty five. 14 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: SMP five founded up six points a third of a 15 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: percent at two thousand fifty six. The NAZAC is up 16 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: fourteen points a third percent. It's trading at forty seven 17 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: thirty one. West Texas Intermedia crude oil up forty cents 18 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: to barrel at forty four seventy one. It's about old 19 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: is of eighteen dollars announced at the Tenure Treasury is 20 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 1: down nine thirty seconds with the yield of one point 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 1: seven And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Yes, getting ready 22 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 1: for the one and forty second running of the Kentucky 23 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 1: Derby that will be tomorrow at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. 24 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: Here to help us understand the race and maybe help 25 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: us select the winner is Dan Zucker. He is the 26 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: co founder of predict form dot com. He's joining us 27 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: from blue Chip Farm in Wallkill, New York. And joining 28 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: me here in the studio is Gary Edel. He's a 29 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg staffer and a bit of a racing enthusiast and 30 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: a handicapping tournament player. Gentlemen, great to have you with 31 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: us here, Dan Zucker, I want you to begin by 32 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: just explaining for people that may not be horse race 33 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: racing of ficionados, twenty horses. That sounds like a lot 34 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: of horse flesh on the on the track. Yeah, sure, 35 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: as Tim and Gary, how are you, my friends? That's 36 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: the number that you get with the Kentucky Derby. It's 37 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: the it's the one race a year where you see 38 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:17,519 Speaker 1: twenty horses and it it certainly does make for traffic problems. 39 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: You know, a lot of a lot of contact and 40 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: banging around throughout the race. We'll tell us about the horses, 41 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: because I know that you have some favorites, and I'm 42 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:27,639 Speaker 1: wondering if you could tell us a little bit about 43 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: something called a pace figure and how that figures into 44 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: your calculations. Sure well, and I was gonna say, you know, 45 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: we maybe maybe before we dive into the pace figure. 46 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: I just found that, you know, when you mentioned the 47 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 1: twenty horses. Something that's really interesting this year, and Gary, 48 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 1: you probably noticed this is there are three stallions that 49 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: represent half the field. It's the three stack. Two stallions 50 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 1: each have three three offspring running. One stallion's name is 51 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: Uncle Moe, the other stallion's name is Tappit, and a 52 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: third stallion named giants Causeway has two suns as well 53 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: as a great grandson. Uh another stallion named as Candia. 54 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 1: His father is Giant's Causeway. So in essence, you have 55 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 1: three stallions representing nine horses, which is a really rare 56 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: thing in a in a race like this, So it's 57 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: kind of like it's all in the family, all right, Gary, 58 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: So tell us a little bit about how you approach 59 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: handicapping a race like the Derby, you know it, as 60 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: Dan has started off with, I like looking at the pace. 61 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: It's just like if you're running a track race, you 62 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: have everyone has different styles of running. You have some 63 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: track people, you have some runners that like to go 64 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: out to the lead, some people like to go a 65 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: new pack, some people like to just sit back and 66 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: let the speed go and just close on them. So 67 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: I like to really analyze the race looking at pace figures. 68 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: And I know one of the things that I love 69 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: about Dance product is he goes really deep into pace 70 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: figures and his specialty is identifying the E two. What's 71 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: the E two paste? Dan Sucker, what explain? How do 72 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: you what is a pace figure? Well, so, essentially like 73 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: in horse racing, horses are clothed at the quarter mile, 74 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: a half mile, the mile, and then at the end 75 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 1: of the race. And we evaluate races a race with generation, 76 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: and we look at a horse's speed throughout the race, 77 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: whether a horse is accelerating or decelerating. And grass races, 78 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 1: horses start slow and they wind up going much faster 79 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: at the end, whereas in dirt racing it's a game 80 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: of deceleration. The first quarter is always faster than the 81 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: second quarter, which is faster than the third quarter, which 82 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 1: is faster than the end of the race. So we 83 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 1: look at we have to look at pace in analyzing 84 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 1: the race to determine whether or not, you know, as 85 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 1: Gary mentioned, the horses up front will be able to 86 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 1: hold on, or whether it's likely that somebody from way 87 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: off the pace will come up at the very end. 88 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: So can you tell us the horses that you believe 89 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: are gard to perform the best based on this pace 90 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: figure analysis? Yeah, well, I mean I'll kind of give 91 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: you are are quick fifty foot level analysis and then 92 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: you know you can go to kind of Garry to 93 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: see where he sits. But from our perspective, um, there 94 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: are two main horses in here that look to be 95 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 1: better than the rest of the field. The first one 96 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: is nye Quist, who is the big favorite, um, you know, 97 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: undefeated seven for seven and he comes into the race 98 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: off a very strong last race. The second horse is 99 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: called Outwork, ironically enough, there both by Uncle Mo and 100 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: Uncle mos Stallion. Uncle Mo's father was Indian Charlie. The 101 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 1: big knock on Indian Charlie, which then filters down to 102 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: both of his sons, is that no Indian Charlie has 103 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: ever won a race going a mile and a quarter, 104 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: so it's something new for the family. The other horse 105 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: that we have would be outworked, and he's got Johnny 106 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: Laska is one of the benefest riders in the country, 107 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: comes from the best trainer in the country and Todd Fletcher, 108 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: and he's likely to sit just off the pace, beyond 109 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: the front. So if you're watching the race on television, 110 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 1: the horses that were projecting are gonna win are going 111 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: to be in the front of the pace most to 112 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 1: the race where they're gonna be fifty different camera angles 113 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: because it's gonna be broadcast on NBC of course, so 114 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: that'll be around five fifty Eastern time tomorrow, Gary. So, 115 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: based on the information that you've been able to assemble, 116 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,119 Speaker 1: do you concur with what Dan Zucker is saying about 117 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: the pace of the race. Well, first off, I've been 118 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: in quite a few tournaments with Dan, and if Dan 119 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: says something, I'm listening because he knows this stuff. And 120 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: one of the things I find interesting in this race 121 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: is the lack of speed, and that's what's gonna make 122 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: this race very hard to handicap. In my opinion, last 123 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: year you had basically had the horses that came in first, 124 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 1: second and third running first, second and third around the 125 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: track the whole way. This year, we really don't have 126 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: that much speed, and that's gonna hinder a lot of 127 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 1: the horses coming from behind. I really like I'm going 128 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: with Dan with Outwork. I know Dave Papa Papa Dulas 129 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg also was talking about at Work as a 130 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: really good value play. I'm gonna also use um exaggerator. 131 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: I think he has that same type of running style. 132 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: He's gonna just sit in midpack. Winner of the Santa 133 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: Anita Dert exactly. He's gonna sit midpack, and I think 134 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: when the upfront horses thought to die, he's gonna make 135 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:18,119 Speaker 1: his move. Uh eight rated at eight to one. Out 136 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: Work at fifteen to one, a night quest, as you said, 137 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 1: the favorite three to one, and we gotta go with value. 138 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: So I'll probably be looking at out the out myself, 139 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: all right. Thanks very much, darry edel joining us a 140 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg staffer and enthusiast when it comes to handicapping and 141 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: the handicapped tournaments are thanks also to Dan Zucker Co 142 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: founder predict form dot com. Remember the Derby is tomorrow 143 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: in Churchill Downs. This is Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on 144 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: taking Stock. A disappointing payroll report from the Department of Labor. 145 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: Does this signal a greater downturn in hiring? We'll find out. 146 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: That's next on taking Stock.