1 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: There is one other thing. I'm including it here is 2 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: an epilogue because the series is over, its message has 3 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 1: been sent. But this other thing does tie into existential 4 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: risks in some pretty interesting ways, so I wanted to 5 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: include it. I'll just leave it here and you can 6 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: decide how you feel about it. Back in two thousand three, 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: Nick Bostrom expanded on a concept that had been around 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: at least since the classical Greeks first recorded their thoughts 9 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: on it, the idea that what we experience as reality 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: isn't real the followers of Plato discussed in the Academy 11 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: at Athens, and then in the sixteen hundreds it was 12 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: taken up and examined by Renee Descartes, the Enlightenment philosopher 13 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: who famously identified that he was because he thought. Descartes 14 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: wondered if perhaps we exist in a reality that's actually 15 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: a dream. After considering his own experience with dreams, Descartes 16 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: decided that if we do exist in a dream, we 17 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: would never be able to tell. What he experienced in 18 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: dreams seemed like reality to him just as much as 19 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: reality did in waking life. Without any indication to distinguish 20 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: between the two, we would never really be able to 21 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: tell the difference. It wasn't until two thousand three, however, 22 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: when Nick Bostrom wrote his paper entitled Are You Living 23 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: in a Computer Simulation? That anyone went to the trouble 24 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: of formalizing the idea that what we consider reality is 25 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: an actually basement reality. Bostrom hit upon a way to 26 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 1: examine the nature of reality, and it's based on whether 27 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 1: we expect to make it through the great filter. He 28 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: called it the simulation argument, which supposes that there's a 29 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: very good chance and we are not actually real life humans, 30 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: that instead we are simulated humans living in a simulated universe. 31 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: So Nick Bolstrom refined this into a proper logical argument 32 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: to show that you need to kind of accept that 33 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: either we are going to go extinct really soon, or 34 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: where for some reason, our post human descember will never 35 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: ever run simulations, maybe because very impossible, or because they're 36 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: very very moral or have some coordination, or we are 37 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: almost certainly in a simulation. If you didn't recognize that voice, 38 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: that was Ander Sandberg, Bostrom's colleague at the Future of 39 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: Humanity Institute. Being an argument, the simulation argument doesn't provide 40 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 1: evidence one way or the other, which is beautiful because 41 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: that leads it to each person to be persuaded by 42 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 1: it or not. But to get into it, we first 43 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 1: have to agree on a couple of points. Remember when 44 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: humanities cosmic endowment came up all the way back in 45 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: episode three. That's the idea that if we are the 46 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: only intelligent life in the universe, as it seems we are, 47 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: then once we spread off of Earth, all the matter 48 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: and energy that we can get our hands on before 49 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: it expands out of our reach forever is ours to 50 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: put to use for whatever amazing things we can come 51 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: up with. If we managed to successfully navigate the existential 52 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: risks that are coming our way and pass through the 53 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: great Filter, then it seems likely that our descendants humans 54 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 1: in the future will use some of that cosmic endowment 55 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: to create massive computers. Perhaps we will use nanobots to 56 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: deconstruct planets to use as raw materials for those massive computers, 57 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: and we'll build Dyson's feares to capture energy at the 58 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: source of a star to power them. That our descendants 59 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: will have massive computers seems like a fairly tame prediction 60 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: as far as predictions about the future go. Think about 61 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: how important computing is to our civilization today. It's a 62 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: pretty good bet that as we continue moving along our 63 00:03:55,360 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: technological path, computing will grow ever more important, and should 64 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: we end up a post biological society, computers will become 65 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: even more important. They will provide the support structure for 66 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: our very being. So if we're agreed that if we 67 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 1: managed to save the world, are descendants will go on 68 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: to have vast amounts of computation available to them, we 69 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: can move on to the next point that they will 70 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 1: use some of that computing power to run simulations of 71 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: us their ancestors. They could have any reason to run 72 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: simulations of human history for fun, like the reason we 73 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: play the sims or Age of Empires as a sociological 74 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 1: or anthropological model, or as part of an educational exhibit 75 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: that celebrates the time that we save the future of 76 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 1: the entire human race and intelligent life in the universe 77 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: from near extinction. Whatever their reason, we can imagine that 78 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: in the future they might run what Bostrom calls ancestor simulations. Importantly, 79 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: one the beautiful things that makes the simulation argument persuasive 80 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 1: is that it doesn't matter when this will happen. The 81 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: argument puts no time constraints on any of this. Our 82 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: descendants can build those computers and run those simulations a 83 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: thousand years from now or a million. It doesn't matter, 84 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 1: just so long as we can agree that at some 85 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: point they will. So if we're agreed that our descendants 86 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 1: will at some point in the future build massive computers 87 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: and use some of that ridiculous amount of computing power 88 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: available to them to run simulations of human history, we 89 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: can now enter the simulation argument. It goes something like this, 90 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: Either we are living in a computer simulation run by 91 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: our descendants in the future, or we're not. If we're 92 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: not living in a simulation, then that means we are 93 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: what we tend to think. We are members of the 94 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: real life human race, living in basement or real reality 95 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: in the twenty first century, about three and a half 96 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: billion years on from the origin of life on Earth. 97 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: But as plainly obvious as that may seem, the simulation 98 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: argument raises a question why aren't we simulated? Bostrom identified 99 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 1: a couple of possible reasons. One is that our descendants 100 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 1: are fully capable of simulating us, they just choose not to. 101 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: It's possible that our ancestors won't run simulations because they're 102 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: computing power is far too precious for even a minute 103 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: fraction of it to be allocated to something potentially frivolous 104 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 1: like an ancestor simulation. Or maybe the humans of the 105 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: future are too moral to run an ancestor simulation, that 106 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 1: the possibility that suffering could arise in the universe they create, 107 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: like what we experience in our own universe now, is 108 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: just too much of a moral gamble for their taste. 109 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: In other words, they don't want the karmic mark against 110 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: them for creating another universe where suffering lives. Or perhaps 111 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 1: running ancestor simulations is just too hard, and of course 112 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: it's always possible, they just don't feel like it. But 113 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 1: take a closer look at this possibility. It shares the 114 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: same fatal flaw with arguments that look to solve the 115 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: family paradox. It presumes that not one, not one single 116 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:22,679 Speaker 1: future human decided to build a simulation of historic humans. 117 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: Not a single person figured out a way to allocate 118 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: some of that vast amount of computing power to simulate 119 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: the universe and humanity in it. Not a single person 120 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: came across a scientific study that would benefit from a 121 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: model of human history, not a single person was curious 122 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: enough of the quadrillions or possibly sex to sillions of 123 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: humans left to come, who will populate a span of 124 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: time lasting billions of years. Not a single one of 125 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 1: them created an ancestor simulation. That's how it must be, 126 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 1: because all it takes is one for one person in 127 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: the future to run one single ancestor simulation, and the 128 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: simulation argument is activated. But there's another possibility as well. 129 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: Perhaps no ancestor simulations are run in the future because 130 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: there are no humans around to run them. Here's where 131 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: the simulation argument ties into existential risks if we're not 132 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: simulated humans. In a very strange way, the simulation argument 133 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: gives us a glimpse across the long expanse of time 134 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: into our future. When we look ahead, it shows us 135 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: that there are no humans around to run simulations of us. 136 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: There are no humans who managed to spread from Earth 137 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: and into the universe to put that cosmic endowment to use. 138 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: It tells us that we will fail that in the future. 139 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: We didn't make it through the Great Filter. But if 140 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: you think we will make it through the Great Filter, 141 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: and if you're not convinced that not a single one 142 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: of our descendants will run a simulation, and of humanity, 143 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: you're in luck. There's a third option that we are 144 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: simulated humans living in a simulated universe. Yes, anybody can 145 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: simply say that we are living in a simulation, just 146 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: like anyone can say that we are living in what 147 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: we call real reality. Neither one means anything. They're both 148 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: just assertions. But the idea that we're living in a 149 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: simulated reality actually has a leg up over the idea 150 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: that we're living in real reality thanks to probability, lovable, unpredictable, programmable. 151 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 1: It's the Sims. Back at the beginning of the year 152 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: two thousand, the software company Maxis released The Sims, a 153 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: life simulation game where you, the player, controls individual simulated people. 154 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: The Sims. As one reviewer put it, as a celebration 155 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: of the mundane Sims go about their lives, they go 156 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: to work, they clean their toilets, and yes, they die. 157 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: The Sims became an enormously popular game. Between two thousand 158 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: and two thousand ten, a hundred and twenty five million 159 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: copies of The SIMS and its successive editions were sold 160 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: around the world. Each time one of those people brought 161 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: their CD RAM home, loaded it into the tray, and 162 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 1: booted up the software. A new iteration of the SIMS 163 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 1: universe was created. It was the same universe. It followed 164 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 1: the same rules, the same program, It followed the same 165 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: physics and logic, and the SIMS all navigated their universe 166 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: made up of the same set of possibilities, but each 167 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: iteration was distinct and different. Each one was a discreet 168 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: version of the SIMS universe, and we can expect something 169 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: along the same lines with any simulations our ancestors might run. 170 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: Whether it's a scientific model for an anthropological study of history, 171 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: or whether it's the software of a popular game, whether 172 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: it's a class project. Each time that simulation is run, 173 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 1: a new iteration of our simulated human universe is created. 174 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: Say that at some point in the future, again, it 175 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: doesn't matter when, but at some point across the billions 176 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: of years, among the quadrillions of people left to come, 177 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: there's a ten year period where an ancestor simulation software 178 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: that is equally as popular as the SIMS is created 179 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: and sold. As all those future humans load their simulations, 180 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: a new iteration of our simulated universe is born, each 181 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 1: following the same guidelines, the same code, each taking radically 182 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: different courses within the same set of prescribed rules, the 183 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: same set of physics, as it were. If we're agreed 184 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: that our descendants will run ancestor simulations of us, and 185 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 1: that we don't have any frame of reference to distinguish 186 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 1: the simulation from real reality, and in the future a 187 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five million iterations of that simulated universe 188 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: or run, then you and I and everyone alive in 189 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: our universe has a one and one than twenty five 190 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: million chants that we are actual humans, a one and 191 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: a hundred and twenty five million chance that we are 192 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:11,439 Speaker 1: not simulated, Or, to put it somewhat less encouragingly, there 193 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 1: is a ninety nine point chance that we are simulated 194 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,559 Speaker 1: humans living in an ancestor simulation being run in the future. 195 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 1: Because there was one iteration of humans in real life, 196 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: there is a chance that we are members of that 197 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: genuine human race as we'd like to think of ourselves. 198 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 1: But well, here's Nick Bostro, it's a little bit as 199 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: if we ares s species. I thought we were Napoleon, right, 200 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: So there are a lot of people who have thought 201 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: that we're Napoleon. Has only been one actually Napoleon. There 202 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: have been many more people that thought that we're Napoleon. 203 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 1: Then actually we're in that pogum, And say, if you 204 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 1: think you're kind of an emperor of world historic importance, 205 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: you know, a chances are maybe you're actually a lunatic 206 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: in and insane asylum. Because so many simulations are running 207 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: in the future, given that we have no firm of 208 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: reference to tell us any differences between our reality and 209 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: basement reality, that utter lack of signs that we live 210 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: in a dream, as Descartes suggested, the chances are vastly 211 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: greater that we are simulated rather than real. There's just 212 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: simply been more simulated humans than real ones, and being 213 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: members of one group or the other, the chances state 214 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: quite plainly that it's like clear we're members of the 215 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: simulated group. You can mess with the numbers either way 216 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: to make the chances go up or down. Say that 217 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 1: ancestor simulation is way more popular than the sims ever was, 218 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: and an equal amount of copies are sold each decade 219 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 1: for a hundred years. That would mean that we had 220 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: one chance in over a billion of being a human, 221 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: and so on. Each new iteration of our simulated universe 222 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: lowers the chances that we are real. But like I 223 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: said before, even just one ancestor simulation run in the 224 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 1: future activates the simulation argument eve. And if just once 225 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 1: in the whole future history of the human race, only 226 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: one iteration of our simulated universe is run, we still 227 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: have even odds that were simulated. If we make it 228 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: through the great filter, and our descendants run ancestor simulations 229 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: of us, we have at best a fifty chance of 230 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: being real humans. I should say that if it does 231 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 1: turn out that we are simulated, our simulation could have 232 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: been built by any number of things. It's possible the 233 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 1: people who created us aren't future humans at all, but 234 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: some other intelligent life entirely. It could be a race 235 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: of Martian ancestors that real humans diverged from eons ago, 236 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: an intelligent machine, super intelligent mice looking for the answer 237 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: to the meaning of life. It's even possible that our 238 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: universe follows a more basic set of physics than what 239 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: governs the universe. Our universe is stimulated within. Perhaps there 240 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: never was a one true race of real life humans, 241 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: anymore than there was a real life race of sims. 242 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: But the thing about the simulation argument is that it 243 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 1: calls for the least amount of speculation, the least amount 244 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: of unreality. For it to be right, all it requires 245 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 1: is that our descendants will run simulations of humanity in 246 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: the future. It's rather elegant in its simplicity. That's what 247 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: makes it convincing. Even still, there are, as you may imagine, 248 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 1: a number of objections to the simulation argument. Some people 249 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: simply detest it on its face, dismissing it out of 250 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: hand is nothing more than material for late night conversations 251 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: in college dorms. But others engage with it seriously, and 252 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: they raise legitimate issues. The thing is, it seems that 253 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 1: every object action leveled against the simulation argument either imposes 254 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: unnecessary time constraints or is just a simple failure of imagination. 255 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: If this is the first you've heard of the simulation argument, 256 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: at this point, you might be looking around you closely 257 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 1: examining the edges of things, seeing if you can tell 258 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 1: that the world is fake. Don't bother. The simulation argument 259 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: doesn't change a single thing about our universe. The physics 260 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: are the same as ever. Being persuaded that we live 261 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: in a simulation doesn't unlock some greater understanding of our 262 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: reality such that we can alter it in ways that 263 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: we couldn't before. There's no pill to choose. There won't 264 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: be any flying around or walking through walls, nor should 265 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: your morality be altered. Your mother is just as real 266 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: as she was before, and she would be just as 267 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: disappointed as before if you decided to start a life 268 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: of crime because we're simulated, So why does it matter. 269 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: The court system is real too, and you would be 270 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: imprisoned by it just as sure as ever. And when 271 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: you explain to them that none of this is real, 272 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: that they aren't real, the car you set fire too 273 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: isn't real, that the whole universe isn't real, the mental 274 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 1: health system will be just as happy as ever to 275 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 1: lock you away in a padded room indefinitely, the walls 276 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 1: of which you would find you were fully enabled to 277 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: will yourself to walk through using your new found awareness 278 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: of the simulated basis of our universe. Our universe is 279 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 1: as real as it ever was. The only thing the 280 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: simulation argument can change is your perspective. One common objection 281 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: to the simulation argument kind of falls under this umbrella 282 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 1: of misunderstanding. It goes something like this, how could a 283 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: simulated banana or simulated apple, or a simulated cheeseburger possibly 284 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: provide nutrients to us. How could it sustain and nourish us, 285 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: alleviate our hunger, make us feel full. It's kind of 286 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: like the hard problem of consciousness, the puzzle of how 287 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 1: we get from neurons firing two subjective experience. Sure, you 288 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: can simulate a banana, but you're simulating a banana. It's 289 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: on a computer. And those of us who are looking 290 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 1: at the banana, no, we are looking at a banana 291 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: pictured on a computer. How can we account for the 292 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: experience of interacting with a banana, holding one, peeling it, 293 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,439 Speaker 1: and needing it, of being allergic to it? How do 294 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: we get from a simulated banana to the experience of 295 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: a banana that is indistinguishable from reality. The answer is 296 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 1: rather simple. We're not simulating that banana or cheeseburger or whatever, 297 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 1: so it's not a simulation to us. It's made of 298 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 1: the same stuff that we are. It's no more fake 299 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: than you, You're no more real than it. We share 300 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: the same reality. The banana isn't a simulated banana in 301 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: our universe. It's just a banana, so it's subject to 302 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 1: the same rules that we are on the quantum level. 303 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: Those bananas are made up of energetic vibrations just like us. 304 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 1: They form particles that are held together by the fundamental forces, 305 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: just like us, and they form larger and more stable 306 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: structures that increase in size and complexity up to the 307 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: level of what we think of as a banana. And 308 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: when we eat that particular package of energetic vibration, it 309 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 1: interacts with our own energetic vibrations in such a way 310 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: that we experience taste, in the sensation of deliciousness, We 311 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 1: experience feeling full if we eat too many of them, 312 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 1: and our bodies break them down into smaller parts, and 313 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 1: we use those parts for energy, same as ever. Banana objections, 314 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: as we'll call them, are rooted in the idea that 315 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: we exist in some different reality from the banana. To 316 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 1: be clear, the simulation argument does not suppose that there's 317 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 1: some real version of you elsewhere. What we experience as 318 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: our universe, bananas and all, is a simulation to someone else. 319 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: To us, it is our full reality. So to answer 320 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: the banana objection, the banana can satiate and sustain us 321 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:10,399 Speaker 1: because it's as real as we are. Other objections go 322 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,880 Speaker 1: a little deeper. How could we possibly simulate the universe 323 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: on anything approaching a detail fine grained enough to be 324 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: indistinguishable from the original. There are a couple of answers 325 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 1: to this one. First, we can't. We don't have the 326 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 1: computing power to faithfully render the universe in that detail. 327 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: But in this objection we run into an unnecessary time constraint. 328 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: While we can't faithfully reproduce the universe, there's a pretty 329 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: good chance that our descendants will be able to. We 330 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 1: Those of us alive today are already on track to 331 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:50,919 Speaker 1: doing this. For the last several years, humans have been 332 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 1: able to produce accurate simulations of quarks and glue ones 333 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: and the strong nuclear force that binds them together. These 334 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 1: models are not infinitely press size, but they're faithful enough 335 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: to reality that a simulated scientists living in the simulated 336 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 1: universe where the protons exist would have no way to 337 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: distinguish their unreality. They would just be protons that behaven 338 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 1: appear exactly like any other protons. The models that we 339 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 1: can produce today simulate an exceedingly tiny portion of our universe. 340 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 1: They're on the scale of femptometers, about a quadrillionth of 341 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: a meter. But the models show a proof of concept 342 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 1: that simulating the universe is possible, and they also show 343 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 1: that the human race already has a desire to simulate 344 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: the universe. Already at this early stage in modeling the universe, 345 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: we found that there are problems future humans will run 346 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: into when it comes to scaling up those models. It's 347 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: pretty obvious that modeling the entire universe would be a very, 348 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 1: very difficult undertaking, but difficulties can be worked out over time. 349 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 1: The problem comes when we reach impossibilities, and in two 350 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: thousand seventeen, a pair of researchers from Oxford University found 351 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,439 Speaker 1: an impossibility that seems to show pretty conclusively that we 352 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: do not live in a simulated universe. The researchers found 353 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 1: that it would be physically impossible to simulate at least 354 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 1: one aspect of the universe, something called the quantum Hall effect, 355 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,959 Speaker 1: which describes the way that electrons bounce between energy states 356 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 1: called a quantum leap in the presence of a magnetic 357 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: field and extremely low temperatures. It occupies a arcane a 358 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,440 Speaker 1: corner of particle physics as there is, But the point 359 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,880 Speaker 1: is the researchers found that to accurately simulate the effect. 360 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,919 Speaker 1: The computational power required doubles each time you add a 361 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: new particle to the model, rather than increasing the power 362 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: needed by one unit, it grows exponentially, so within just 363 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 1: a few hundred particles, the operations per second required by 364 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: a computer to run a simulation of the quantum Hall 365 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: effect grows to a total beyond the number of atoms 366 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: there are in the universe, around ten to the eighty 367 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: second power. Not only is that number vastly more operations 368 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: than our computers can perform today, this also presents a 369 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: major technical issue. We need electrons to perform the computations 370 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 1: that create the simulated model. In the first place, electrons 371 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 1: are what we use to carry information in our computers, 372 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: and as we simulate more and more particles subject to 373 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: the quantum Hall effect, we will start to require a 374 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: substantial portion of the electrons that are part of those 375 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 1: ten to the eighty second power atoms in the universe. 376 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: And as you may know, those electrons are otherwise occupied 377 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: performing other functions like making up all the matter in 378 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: the universe, which means that eventually it becomes physically impossible 379 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 1: to simulate the quantum Hall effect and since we can 380 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 1: observe the quantum Hall effect in our own universe, we 381 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 1: can reason that our universe is not a simulation. But 382 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: this presents a failure of imagination, not an impossibility. Indeed, 383 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: the researchers who made the discovery noted that they're finding 384 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: only showed that we couldn't possibly be simulated within a 385 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 1: traditional computer, the type that we have available to us now, 386 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: the kind that uses electrons. They also pointed out that 387 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: we can probably safely presume that the humans of the 388 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 1: future would be simulating us on better computers than what 389 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 1: we're using today. I've said it before, and I'll say 390 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: it again. If it turns out that the humans of 391 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 1: the future don't have better computers than we have now, 392 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 1: it would be one of the more surprising things in 393 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,880 Speaker 1: this entire series. And indeed, we are working on better 394 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 1: computers already, specifically, quantum computers, the type of computer that 395 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 1: processes information not gleaned from the movement of electrons, but 396 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: instead from the interaction of elementary particles, which exponentially opens 397 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 1: up a computer's capacity to perform calculations in a single 398 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 1: second and meet lee transfers, rendering the quantum Hall effect 399 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 1: and a simulation from the impossible column over to the 400 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 1: column marked possible. We've already talked about that to accurately 401 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 1: simulate a human or to require simulating a mind that 402 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,199 Speaker 1: is capable of subjective experience. If the hard problem of 403 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: consciousness isn't actually a problem after all, then by creating 404 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 1: an accurate model of all of the bits that make 405 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 1: up a human mind, the neurons and synapses, the neurochemicals, 406 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: we can imagine that they will produce subjective experience when 407 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: they interact with the matter and energy that makes up 408 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: the simulated universe. This is exactly the same concept as 409 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 1: a post biological civilization that has shed their physical form 410 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: and migrated onto computers. If you found the concept of 411 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: a post biological future for humanity plausible, then you should 412 00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: have no trouble accepting the simulation argument. The only difference 413 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 1: between the two is that, rather than us migrating onto 414 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 1: computers ourselves, we will have always been there already. As 415 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: Nick Bostrom points out in his paper on the simulation argument, 416 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 1: the human brain can process about ten to the seventeenth 417 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: power operations per second. If that's the amount of processing 418 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,679 Speaker 1: power it takes to experience subjective reality. Then that's about 419 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 1: what we would expect it would take to simulate a 420 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 1: human mind, and to run a simulation of all of 421 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 1: human history would require that amount times around a hundred 422 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: and seven billion, since that's the number of humans who 423 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 1: have been born up to this point. Although we can't 424 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 1: imagine that as humans die, the processing power required to 425 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 1: produce their subjective experience would be freed up to power 426 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 1: the minds of new humans as they're born. So perhaps 427 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: all you'd ever need is enough processing power to simulate 428 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 1: all of the minds of the humans who are alive 429 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: at any given point, which means that to simulate a 430 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: global population of ten bills people, you'd need a computer 431 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:06,639 Speaker 1: capable of processing ten to seven power operations per second. 432 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 1: That's not including the processing power it would take to 433 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: simulate the universe, which we could expect would expand the 434 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 1: requirements to mind boggling numbers. There are surely a lot 435 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,199 Speaker 1: of corners future humans can cut to create a simulation. 436 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 1: They wouldn't need to simulate the entire universe obviously, just 437 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,959 Speaker 1: what we can detect. Then it's possible they wouldn't need 438 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,719 Speaker 1: to simulate the universe at all. Rather, they could just 439 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 1: create a program that stimulates our minds directly to experience 440 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 1: the universe. Even with the shortcuts, though, there's still an 441 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 1: enormous amount of ground to cover before we get to 442 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: the point where we have the processing power of the 443 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 1: magnitude required to simulate a human mind, let alone all 444 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 1: seven and a half billion of us. Take this for example. 445 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,199 Speaker 1: Back in two thousand fourteen, the Fujitsu Corporation ran a 446 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: test on its Fujitsu K, at the time, the fourth 447 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 1: fastest supercomputer in the world, ranking that is no small feat. 448 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: In the test, the Fujitsu engineers wanted to see how 449 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 1: long it took their K computer to process one percent 450 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: of the amount of information that a human brain can 451 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: process in one second. The K managed to process that information, 452 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 1: but rather than the hundredth of a second it would 453 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,199 Speaker 1: have taken a brain, it took the computer forty minutes 454 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 1: to complete the task. And it's worth noting the K 455 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: required twelve point seven megawatts of electricity throughout the forty 456 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 1: minutes it was running this test, about the same amount 457 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 1: of electricity needed to power the entire city of Sacramento, California. 458 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 1: Considering the gap between where we are now and what's 459 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 1: required to run a respectable ancestor simulation. It might start 460 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 1: to seem that such simulations are indeed impossible but easy. 461 00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 1: There we're only running up against an unnecessary time constraint. Again, 462 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 1: given enough time, it seems quite possible to build a 463 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 1: computer that could run an accurate simulation. As Boston points out, 464 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: a single one of those planet sized computers could perform 465 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 1: ten to the forty second operations per second. To run 466 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: an ancestor simulation would require just the slightest fraction of 467 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 1: that computer's processing power, And we can imagine that in 468 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: a far enough expanse into the future, if our descendants 469 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,959 Speaker 1: have one planet sized computer, they will eventually have a 470 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: great many of them. And let's not forget we humans 471 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,720 Speaker 1: have a long standing tradition of advancing by leaps and 472 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,000 Speaker 1: bounds in computing. If you wanted to find the top 473 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: of the line in supercomputers back in you needed to 474 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 1: look no further than the Cray Too. Recently, scientists producing 475 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 1: these simulations at NASA's Aims Research Center in Mountain View, California, 476 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 1: began using a new supercomputer, the Cray Too. It was 477 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 1: just a little smaller than the size of a BW 478 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 1: beatles stood on its end, but the CRY two could 479 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 1: perform two hundred and fifty million operations per second, an 480 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 1: astounding amount. In just over thirty years later, Apple released 481 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:17,240 Speaker 1: a computer that could perform six hundred billion operations per second. 482 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:21,960 Speaker 1: Apple called There's the iPhone tent, which, by the way, 483 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 1: is run by a machine learning algorithm capable of self improvement. 484 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 1: We already share the planet with quantum computers, the very 485 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 1: kind of computer that could simulate a universe to a 486 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 1: detail down to the quantum grain. The ones we share 487 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 1: the planet with today are exceedingly slow compared to our 488 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: current traditional computers, but they are in the earliest stages 489 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,240 Speaker 1: of development. It was only in the eighties that physicists 490 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: began designing quantum computers that could work in theory, and 491 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 1: only in the nineties when the first quantum computers were built. 492 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: We can imagine that if we continue to follow this arc, 493 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 1: those primitive quantum computers of today will advance as well 494 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: as our traditional ones have. We haven't even lived with 495 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 1: traditional computers for a century, yet imagine what our quantum 496 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 1: computers will be capable of a century from now. There are, 497 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 1: to be sure, numerous other objections to the simulation argument, 498 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 1: but most, if not all, have difficulty overcoming that non 499 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 1: limitation of time. When we give our descendants the luxury 500 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 1: of time, those people whose future lives we will save 501 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: by taking on our existential risks become capable of anything 502 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 1: that we can imagine and more, including simulating us. Back 503 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 1: in two thousand twelve, a group of physicists from Bond 504 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 1: University in Germany announced that they had figured out a 505 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 1: way to test whether we live in a simulation. If 506 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 1: our simulation is anything like the femtometer scale simulated models 507 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 1: of protons that we can produce now, then that means 508 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 1: it isn't an infinitely accurate copy of the real universe 509 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: predicted by Einstein's theory of relativity. One of the things 510 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: that relativity says is that the universe is built from 511 00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 1: a structure made up of the three spatial dimensions and 512 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 1: time spacetime. Spacetime is the fabric of our universe, and 513 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 1: it's contiguous, one giant universe sized unit. There's no gaps 514 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 1: in it anywhere, no matter how far we zoom in. 515 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,280 Speaker 1: Remember when energy fields came up in the Physics episode 516 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 1: and I mentioned that these energy fields are everywhere at 517 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 1: every point in time and space. That's what that means. 518 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 1: There's no place where those fields aren't because there's no 519 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 1: gaps in spacetime. There's no place where space doesn't exist, 520 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: just as there aren't any gaps in time where there's 521 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:02,840 Speaker 1: no time. It would take an enormous computer to render 522 00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 1: an infinitely accurate version of our universe, potentially one the 523 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 1: exact size of the universe, and so we might guess 524 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 1: that the designers of our simulation would be forced to 525 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 1: make a version that's just slightly less accurate than the 526 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 1: real thing, which would mean that the fabric of the 527 00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 1: simulated universe wouldn't be infinitely smooth. There would be gaps 528 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 1: in its structure gept between the individual units that it's 529 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,160 Speaker 1: built from. If we could only zoom in close enough 530 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 1: to examine it, we would find the fabric of our 531 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 1: simulated universe was pixelated. But we can't zoom in that 532 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 1: close to observe space time directly. So the Bond University 533 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 1: researchers suggested a way that we could indirectly observe it 534 00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 1: by watching how these smallest bits of matter in the 535 00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:52,960 Speaker 1: universe ultra high energy cosmic rays travel around space. Remember 536 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 1: Cosmic rays are high energy particles most likely spit out 537 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: from supernova that zip around our universe and collide with 538 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 1: other particles and may or may not produce microscopic black 539 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 1: holes when they do. They're one of the things that 540 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: we model in particle colliders. If spacetime is contiguous in 541 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 1: our universe, as we think it's supposed to be, then 542 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 1: cosmic race should travel in every possible direction. Since there's 543 00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,880 Speaker 1: no gaps in spacetime, there's nothing to direct their paths. 544 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: There aren't any channels in the fabric of space for 545 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 1: them to fall into and travel along. But if spacetime 546 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:31,160 Speaker 1: is pixelated, the very fabric of the universe would form 547 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 1: an infinitismally fine grid. There would be tracks that the 548 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,839 Speaker 1: tiniest cosmic rays might travel along. So, say the Bond researchers, 549 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 1: if we managed to observe that cosmic rays follow a 550 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,280 Speaker 1: grid pattern, or that they show a preference for traveling 551 00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,719 Speaker 1: at angles rather than moving in every possible direction as 552 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:53,319 Speaker 1: they should, we might have a fairly good indication that 553 00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 1: what we're viewing as reality is actually a simulated version 554 00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:05,799 Speaker 1: of it. Interestingly, the idea that spacetime is grainy rather 555 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:10,319 Speaker 1: than smooth is starting to gain traction among physicists. The 556 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 1: absolutely smallest discrete measure of distance in the universe is 557 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 1: called the plank length. Anything smaller than it, and physics 558 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:21,680 Speaker 1: just falls to pieces. It's difficult to get across how 559 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,719 Speaker 1: small a plank length is. It's about a hundred quintillion 560 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,840 Speaker 1: times smaller than a proton, which itself is about a 561 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 1: hundred thousand times smaller than an atom. In fact, if 562 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,840 Speaker 1: we could zoom into the plank scale so that a 563 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,880 Speaker 1: plank length was the size of an atom, the atoms 564 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,919 Speaker 1: in the universe would be the size of galaxies. It's 565 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:46,880 Speaker 1: that small. Since spacetime is supposed to be infinitely smooth, 566 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,760 Speaker 1: it's weird that there's the smallest point beyond which physics 567 00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 1: is just meaningless. It's possible that our math is wrong, 568 00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,799 Speaker 1: or that when we managed to marry relativity and the 569 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,279 Speaker 1: standard model into a theory of quantum gravity, we'll find 570 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 1: that physics picks up again beyond the plank scale. But 571 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,000 Speaker 1: some quantum physicists are beginning to wonder if perhaps there 572 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,400 Speaker 1: is some non infinite bottom size to the fabric of 573 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 1: space time, and that the plank length maybe it. Perhaps 574 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 1: we're beginning to uncover the frame of reference they Carte 575 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:23,080 Speaker 1: longed for to distinguish between our reality and real reality. 576 00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 1: But even as we chip away at the nature of 577 00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 1: our own reality, if we find that we are indeed simulated, 578 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 1: we run into an issue. We still don't know anything 579 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 1: about the nature of real reality. All of our questions 580 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 1: just get kicked up to the universe that's simulating us. 581 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 1: There's a problem with that because we can't say for 582 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,520 Speaker 1: sure that the universe we are simulated within isn't simulated itself. 583 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:56,799 Speaker 1: So the problem can be kicked up indefinitely. Since in 584 00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,560 Speaker 1: the simulation argument, the people who are simulating us are 585 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 1: also humans themselves. They are, remember, the descendants of the 586 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 1: people we are simulations of. The same staggering probabilities against 587 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,080 Speaker 1: us being real life humans applies to them as well. 588 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 1: Just by their membership and the human race and the 589 00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:18,799 Speaker 1: existence of ancestor simulations. The people who simulated us have 590 00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:25,600 Speaker 1: that same ninety nine point chance of being simulated just 591 00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:29,080 Speaker 1: because they are running the simulation of their ancestors doesn't 592 00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,400 Speaker 1: identify them as members of the real human race. The 593 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:38,560 Speaker 1: simulation can run inside a simulation. When our descendants run 594 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:42,480 Speaker 1: ancestor simulations. In the future, there will be simulated versions 595 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,080 Speaker 1: of the universe existing within our own. But if we 596 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,919 Speaker 1: are simulated, then the simulations we run will be simulations 597 00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:54,400 Speaker 1: within our simulation, and the same possibility applies to the 598 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:58,320 Speaker 1: people running our simulation, to their universe may be simulated 599 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 1: as well. Perhaps it's an almost certainty that once a 600 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:06,200 Speaker 1: simulated group of humans reaches some specific point, they will 601 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:10,359 Speaker 1: begin to run ancestor simulations themselves, the ones that make 602 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 1: it through the great filter at least, and so ancestor 603 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:18,800 Speaker 1: simulation spread in each direction from our own universe, simulations 604 00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:23,000 Speaker 1: within simulations within simulations, kind of like how it looks 605 00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:27,200 Speaker 1: inside an elevator that has mirrors on all sides. We 606 00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,840 Speaker 1: ner what's called an infinite regress problem. We can figure 607 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,680 Speaker 1: out that our universe is simulated, but what does that 608 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,160 Speaker 1: tell us about the universe the people who are simulating 609 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:40,960 Speaker 1: us live in. Actually, this is familiar territory for physics. 610 00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 1: One implication of cosmology is that our universe is one 611 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,760 Speaker 1: bubble amid an infinite froth of bubbles, each their own universe. 612 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,720 Speaker 1: And since our universe is an isolated system, no matter 613 00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,440 Speaker 1: or energy can leak out of it, and we presume 614 00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,840 Speaker 1: the same about those other universes, which means that we 615 00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,239 Speaker 1: can't glean any information about those other universes that we 616 00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,400 Speaker 1: rub up against in the infinite froth, and we likely 617 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,920 Speaker 1: never will. And yet you would be hard pressed to 618 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,880 Speaker 1: find a physicist who suggested throwing in the towel on 619 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:17,880 Speaker 1: investigating our own universe when cosmology reached this conclusion. The 620 00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,000 Speaker 1: same holds true for the idea that we're simulated. Not 621 00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,880 Speaker 1: being able to know anything about the universe that simulated 622 00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,879 Speaker 1: us doesn't mean there's nothing to be gained from investigating 623 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:35,360 Speaker 1: our own It's worth taking a step back here to 624 00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,279 Speaker 1: look at the implications of what it means. When we 625 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:42,120 Speaker 1: start talking about who is simulating us, we're talking about 626 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:46,440 Speaker 1: someone who in some respect created us. Perhaps one of 627 00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: the touchiest aspects of the simulation argument is that it 628 00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:54,960 Speaker 1: suggests a sort of techno creationism. Although it does fall 629 00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,400 Speaker 1: under the umbrella of creationism, accepting the idea that we 630 00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,839 Speaker 1: may be simulated does to require any form of supernatural 631 00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:06,279 Speaker 1: or religious belief. If we're simulated, we can identify who 632 00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:09,600 Speaker 1: created us. It's the descendants of the people who were 633 00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:16,600 Speaker 1: simulations of future humans created us. But who exactly would 634 00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,359 Speaker 1: the software developer who wrote the code that produced us 635 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,920 Speaker 1: qualify as our creator? Would the person who directly booted 636 00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,960 Speaker 1: up the simulation we live in? Or what if our 637 00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,480 Speaker 1: simulation is a scientific model, does our creator where a 638 00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 1: lab coat and our simulation is a digital Petrie dish 639 00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,880 Speaker 1: of sorts? Or is our creator a far future teenager 640 00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,720 Speaker 1: who created us for a class project. I should remind 641 00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,719 Speaker 1: you that it's important to remember the simulation argument doesn't 642 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,720 Speaker 1: prove anything about our perceived reality. It gives no evidence 643 00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,800 Speaker 1: one way or the other. It's a framework for viewing 644 00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,080 Speaker 1: the nature of our universe, which means that, like any 645 00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:57,279 Speaker 1: other argument, you can take or leave it. It is 646 00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:00,319 Speaker 1: a matter of personal belief whether the idea of being 647 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,920 Speaker 1: created from a program written by future humans is more 648 00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,480 Speaker 1: or less comforting than the idea that a supernatural deity 649 00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,120 Speaker 1: created us, or that the world grew on the back 650 00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:13,560 Speaker 1: of a turtle, or that we're the fluke result of 651 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:17,480 Speaker 1: an incomprehensible series of cause and effect stretching back nearly 652 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:27,160 Speaker 1: fourteen billion years. If we did one day discover that 653 00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,560 Speaker 1: we are stimulated humans living in a simulated universe, that 654 00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:34,920 Speaker 1: would we can imagine have enormous and sweeping effects on us. 655 00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:39,080 Speaker 1: Even if you already believe that we were created, how 656 00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,720 Speaker 1: would you feel to learn that your creator is only human, 657 00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,440 Speaker 1: with all the same faults and flaws that you have. 658 00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,960 Speaker 1: And if you don't believe today that we were created, 659 00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,560 Speaker 1: that we are merely the result of some physical processes 660 00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,600 Speaker 1: that can turn dead matter into cellular life, and that 661 00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:58,600 Speaker 1: we were shaped by the forces of evolution, learning indisputably 662 00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 1: that we were indeed created, it would be a tough 663 00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:05,200 Speaker 1: pill to swallow. But would those enormous and sweeping effects 664 00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:09,000 Speaker 1: be all bad and would they be permanent? This is 665 00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:12,680 Speaker 1: Ander Sandberg again. I do think that if we realize 666 00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:16,319 Speaker 1: that the universe fundamentally work differently from how we used 667 00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,920 Speaker 1: to believe it was, we would be shaking, But we 668 00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,120 Speaker 1: would also get over it, just like we have gotten 669 00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:25,839 Speaker 1: over and the hellyo some traces, and the evolution and 670 00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,920 Speaker 1: the Freud and so on. Most people are way more 671 00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,680 Speaker 1: resilient to upsets of the fundamental structure of the world 672 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:36,040 Speaker 1: than we give them credit for. We humans are really 673 00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:40,160 Speaker 1: good at absorbing terrible news, whether it's a cancer diagnosis 674 00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,839 Speaker 1: or learning that we're facing existential risks. There's a chance 675 00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,000 Speaker 1: we will survive, there's a chance we won't. But do 676 00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:50,640 Speaker 1: we simply lay down and die. Humans tend not to 677 00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:55,280 Speaker 1: do that. Instead, we carry on. We seek out connections 678 00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,279 Speaker 1: and support from other humans who are also carrying on, 679 00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,640 Speaker 1: and we might expect the same would hold true should 680 00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,040 Speaker 1: we learn that we're simulated. Even despite finding that we 681 00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,960 Speaker 1: are the result of code, nothing about the meaning of 682 00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:11,520 Speaker 1: our lives should necessarily be lost. Well where do we 683 00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,960 Speaker 1: get a meaning in our own lives? And I would 684 00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,279 Speaker 1: argue that we're actually creating it ourselves. Even if the 685 00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:21,440 Speaker 1: universe was a class project to demonstrate the sociological and thing, 686 00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,840 Speaker 1: that doesn't mean it's the meaning of our life to 687 00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,719 Speaker 1: not behave socially, It's not like our loves and the 688 00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:31,880 Speaker 1: emotions that will become meaningless, and we might still have 689 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,400 Speaker 1: a meaning that's very different from the reason the simulation exists. 690 00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,000 Speaker 1: It will probably be tough to keep in mind, especially 691 00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,839 Speaker 1: for the people who are alive at the time, when 692 00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:45,520 Speaker 1: we learn our universe is simulated, But at bottom, really 693 00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:49,680 Speaker 1: nothing much changes for us. Our understanding of our nature 694 00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:54,160 Speaker 1: only deepens in a very direct way. Learning we are 695 00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:58,320 Speaker 1: stimulated would focus our investigation into our universe it would 696 00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:02,120 Speaker 1: certainly explain a lot. The Bond University researchers who came 697 00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,480 Speaker 1: up with the cosmic ray grid test suggested that perhaps 698 00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,480 Speaker 1: we'd find the reason the Higgs field is in in 699 00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,640 Speaker 1: its lowest energy state is because of a rounding error 700 00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:14,680 Speaker 1: and the computations that produce our simulation. Maybe the measurement 701 00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,759 Speaker 1: problem that quantum particles seem to exist in all of 702 00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,360 Speaker 1: the possible forms they can take at the same time 703 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,680 Speaker 1: is a shortcut to make rendering the universe more efficient. 704 00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,480 Speaker 1: The fine tuning we see would certainly be explained. The 705 00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,120 Speaker 1: parameters of the forces and energy that make up our 706 00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:32,880 Speaker 1: universe would have to be the way they are because 707 00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,560 Speaker 1: we could not be produced under other conditions. But that's correct, 708 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:41,719 Speaker 1: whether we're simulated or not. Finding we're simulated would identify 709 00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:45,200 Speaker 1: computer code as the basis of those governing principles that 710 00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,880 Speaker 1: we already take to be true, like a biogenesis and evolution. 711 00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:52,680 Speaker 1: We wouldn't expect the understanding the truth of that would 712 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:56,839 Speaker 1: change how those processes function, but perhaps we could learn 713 00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:00,680 Speaker 1: how to change them ourselves. Maybe learning we are simulated 714 00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:04,120 Speaker 1: would free us to abandon the notion of fate and 715 00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,360 Speaker 1: take control of how the universe operates to shape it 716 00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,560 Speaker 1: more to our liking. After all, isn't that what the 717 00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:14,759 Speaker 1: study of physics is? Taking control of the universe would 718 00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:18,120 Speaker 1: also focus the moral responsibility that we have in making 719 00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,840 Speaker 1: our universe a better place. Having the ability to reduce 720 00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:25,319 Speaker 1: suffering wherever we found it, we would be morally obligated 721 00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,760 Speaker 1: to do so. But then that's the case already as well. 722 00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,960 Speaker 1: The difference is that we couldn't let ourselves off the 723 00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:35,480 Speaker 1: hook by chalking that suffering up to inevitability like we 724 00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:39,960 Speaker 1: do now. This is Seth show Stack, the senior astronomer 725 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,239 Speaker 1: at City who you met in the first episode on 726 00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:46,200 Speaker 1: the Family Paradox. The question that I asked the Professor 727 00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:50,200 Speaker 1: Bostrom that I think was most relevant to me was, Okay, 728 00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,160 Speaker 1: if this is all a simulation, this conversation we're having, 729 00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:56,480 Speaker 1: it's not real. It's just code. Right. If it's all 730 00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,600 Speaker 1: just code, do I have to live a moral existence 731 00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,399 Speaker 1: or kind just have fun? He thought it was better 732 00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,640 Speaker 1: to live a moral existence, uh, you know, And I 733 00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,319 Speaker 1: thought that that was kind of a testimony to how 734 00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,360 Speaker 1: he really felt on the matter, that you know, you 735 00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:20,960 Speaker 1: better act like it's real. The beautiful thing about the 736 00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:25,239 Speaker 1: simulation argument is that it doesn't change anything, only our perspective. 737 00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:28,919 Speaker 1: The world continues to operate in exactly the same way 738 00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,800 Speaker 1: as before. It's just that some of the mystery is 739 00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:36,719 Speaker 1: brushed away. Nothing about humanity changes, nor does anything about 740 00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,520 Speaker 1: where we find ourselves in the position. Where as Toby 741 00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:44,440 Speaker 1: Ord paraphrase Carl Sagan, we humans have grown powerful before 742 00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:48,879 Speaker 1: we've grown wise, the existential risks we face remain as 743 00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:52,560 Speaker 1: real as ever, and if we did find we are simulated, 744 00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:55,799 Speaker 1: our existential risks would only sharpen, since we would learn 745 00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,839 Speaker 1: of a new one that our simulation could be turned off, 746 00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:02,919 Speaker 1: which I opposed, would qualify as a natural existential risk. 747 00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:07,480 Speaker 1: Whether we arrived at this point where we have grown 748 00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:12,640 Speaker 1: powerful before we've grown wise, by total fluke or by predetermination, 749 00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:16,319 Speaker 1: whether we are members of the real human race or simulated, 750 00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:20,080 Speaker 1: we are in the same unique and precarious position that 751 00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:23,319 Speaker 1: we were in before. We are still entering the mouth 752 00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,319 Speaker 1: of the great filter, and we are still at risk 753 00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,799 Speaker 1: of our existence coming to a permanent end. If we 754 00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:32,360 Speaker 1: fail to come together as a world and learn to 755 00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:35,719 Speaker 1: use science to help us grow wiser faster, we will 756 00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:39,759 Speaker 1: surely not survive. We will accidentally wipe ourselves out with 757 00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,560 Speaker 1: our unwise power, and that will be the end of 758 00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:46,280 Speaker 1: humans in our universe. Does it matter whether that universe 759 00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:48,760 Speaker 1: arose from a big bang or from a system boot, 760 00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:53,799 Speaker 1: Whether we are real or simulated, our reality is the same.