Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Mark Moss Show. We are
Speaker 1: talking about the decentralized revolution. Of course, we're talking about
Speaker 1: bitcoin cryptocurrencies. We're looking at through the lens of the
Speaker 1: world today. We're looking at politics, finance, technology and seeing
Speaker 1: how it's all making sense. And when we look at
Speaker 1: the world through that lens, we can all agree that
Speaker 1: it is a wild, never a dull moment, which is
Speaker 1: good for people like me who sit here and try
Speaker 1: to talk for hours and hours, because it gives me
Speaker 1: plenty of stuff to talk about. There's a quote that
Speaker 1: I often use because every day I'm reminded of how
Speaker 1: real it is. And it's by somebody who I shouldn't
Speaker 1: be quoting, but Vladimir Lenin from Russian history, who was infamously,
Speaker 1: you know, a bad ruler. Let's just let's just leave
Speaker 1: it at that, um, But he said that there's decades
Speaker 1: where nothing seems to happen, and then there's days where
Speaker 1: decades seem to happen. And that's about where we're at.
Speaker 1: And Uh, in the financial market, it's the fed um
Speaker 1: raising rates again this week. Um. You know, how high
Speaker 1: will they continue to raise rates? The markets are crashing?
Speaker 1: How will they how far will they continue to crash? Um,
Speaker 1: the cryptocurrencies are marketing markets are melting down, Will they
Speaker 1: disappear forever? Will they still be there in the future?
Speaker 1: Is now a time to buy the dipper? And I
Speaker 1: mean there's just a never ending amount of things to
Speaker 1: talk about, and so I appreciate that because it gives
Speaker 1: me lots of things to talk about. And uh, you
Speaker 1: need to be paying attention more than ever before, because
Speaker 1: we don't know what's going to happen. Um, it's more
Speaker 1: uncertain than it's ever been. We have we have we
Speaker 1: have land mines, we have potential triggers all over the world.
Speaker 1: And if we start on a big macro scale and
Speaker 1: then get down into more of like what I would
Speaker 1: consider macro, which is like a micro. Now, if we
Speaker 1: start really big, I mean, we got three potential nuclear
Speaker 1: situations that we're dealing with between Russia, between between Israel
Speaker 1: and Iran, in between Taiwan and China, three and and
Speaker 1: make it all happen in the next like six to
Speaker 1: nine months. That's like that close. So that's really big.
Speaker 1: We have we have the European Union about the break
Speaker 1: up with countries going bankrupt. We have credit suites about
Speaker 1: to blow up, which could take Italy, Malta, Spain, Portugal, Italy, um,
Speaker 1: Greece with it. That's bad. Um. Japan is about to
Speaker 1: have to start dumping US treasuries m or have its
Speaker 1: currency completely blow up, which would then pull the US down. UM.
Speaker 1: So hopefully I'm not depressing you too bad. But in
Speaker 1: that backdrop of that, macro, of course, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
Speaker 1: are taking a hit as well as US stocks are.
Speaker 1: The Nasdaq is down, the SMP five hundred is down.
Speaker 1: The SMP five hundred is holding up pretty good because
Speaker 1: of one company, So the sp five hundred is weighted,
Speaker 1: and the biggest company in there, which is Apple, that
Speaker 1: makes up the biggest chunk of that weight, has been
Speaker 1: holding up pretty well. And because it's holding up pretty well,
Speaker 1: keeping that up with it. But don't let that fool you.
Speaker 1: Dangerous there. And of course, like I said, the cryptocurrenc
Speaker 1: space space, which is way more volatile, including bitcoin is
Speaker 1: uh is barely hanging on and a lot of people
Speaker 1: have been asking me where where will bitcoin and go
Speaker 1: should I buy now? How far will it go down?
Speaker 1: The answer is we don't know. That's the answer. We
Speaker 1: don't know. What we can do is we could try
Speaker 1: to look at a bunch of different indicators and tools.
Speaker 1: We can look at history, and we can try to
Speaker 1: use it as a guide. So let's look at that
Speaker 1: a little bit of history here. So what we can
Speaker 1: see is that throughout throughout pitcoin's life over the last
Speaker 1: dozen or so years, it's been volatile. You know that.
Speaker 1: You know that already. You hear that all the time, right,
Speaker 1: it's volatile, volatile, volatile. So it goes up and down.
Speaker 1: Now that's a good thing. That's a good thing. Um,
Speaker 1: if it wasn't volatile, volatility works both ways, goes up
Speaker 1: and down. So how would it go from zero to
Speaker 1: what's it at? Now? How would it go from zero
Speaker 1: to twenty one if it wasn't volatile? And then the
Speaker 1: answer is it wouldn't. It would just be at zero.
Speaker 1: And so it's a good thing. Um, but if you're
Speaker 1: staring at on a short term basis, it could be dangerous.
Speaker 1: And so if we look at that, we can see
Speaker 1: that there's been some big crashes throughout its history. And
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, um, well, I thought we'd look
Speaker 1: at some of the biggest ones in history. Now, the
Speaker 1: biggest one in bitcoin's history doesn't really count in my opinion.
Speaker 1: It's like an outlier. I want to kind of remove it.
Speaker 1: But that's in two thousand eleven. So bitcoin had just
Speaker 1: got going, um, and it went from two dollars all
Speaker 1: the way to thirty dollars, all right, and it basically
Speaker 1: was worth an ounce of silver, which was a pretty
Speaker 1: big deal for something brand new, all right. But at
Speaker 1: the time, there was no industry, right, there was no
Speaker 1: there was no coin base, there was there was no
Speaker 1: place to get it. There was one exchange, and it
Speaker 1: was Mount Cox. You might have heard about Cox before
Speaker 1: it famously blew up. People lost a lot of money.
Speaker 1: It was the largest bitcoin exchange in the world, and
Speaker 1: they admitted that criminals had hacked hundreds of accounts and
Speaker 1: stole millions of dollars with the bitcoins in a single day.
Speaker 1: And the value bitcoin fell to a one penny to
Speaker 1: a penny, So that was pretty bad and it was
Speaker 1: then dropped down. But like I said, that's kind of
Speaker 1: like an outlier. Bitcoin had just got going. It was
Speaker 1: only worth two bucks, um, you know, basically, um, you know,
Speaker 1: millions of bitcoins were stole in a single day. The
Speaker 1: only exchange there was crashed. UM. Nobody knew what the
Speaker 1: heck it was and in the value fell. So that's
Speaker 1: kind of an outlier if we put that one aside, Okay,
Speaker 1: then let's go from there. So then in August two
Speaker 1: thousand twelve, UM, we learned that there was a classic
Speaker 1: Ponzi scheme updated for the digital age, had been builking
Speaker 1: crypto investors for months, promising incredible returns of seven percent
Speaker 1: a week UM, and they had stolen over seven hundred
Speaker 1: thousand bitcoin at the time by by deception, and that
Speaker 1: caused bitcoin to crash by about fifty six percent. That's
Speaker 1: pretty big over half UM the big one. There's two
Speaker 1: big ones, and these are ones that more relative. April two,
Speaker 1: bitcoin was the victim of its own success. Investors piled in.
Speaker 1: This is when I had first caught my eye. I
Speaker 1: saw a bitcoin going up, up, up, up, up up
Speaker 1: up UM, And this is the first time I caught
Speaker 1: my I was like, maybe I should buy it. I
Speaker 1: see it going up. I think this could be a
Speaker 1: big thing. Was new opportunity. Everyone was excited. They started
Speaker 1: a buzz in in in kind of like the not
Speaker 1: mainstream media, but kind of underground media. UM trading was
Speaker 1: so intense that mount Cox couldn't handle the volume, and
Speaker 1: when it crashed, then hackers attacked the vulnerability and it
Speaker 1: forced mount Cox into an unprecedented total shutdown. Again back
Speaker 1: to early early days, one exchange, super fragile, no redundancy. Today,
Speaker 1: if one exchange goes down, no big deal. There's fifty more, right,
Speaker 1: but then we can buy it on paypalen venmo, I mean, right,
Speaker 1: But back then there was one, there was no redundancy.
Speaker 1: So when it went down and sent prices from to
Speaker 1: sixty all the way down to fifty bucks, that was
Speaker 1: an eighty three percent draw down. December two, thirteen, UM
Speaker 1: China bandit one of the thirteen times that China has
Speaker 1: banned bitcoin. UM and China ban bitcoin at the end
Speaker 1: of and it lost fifty per cent of its value overnight,
Speaker 1: according to the Guardian. UM, of course, like I said,
Speaker 1: it was like and of like thirteen times they've done it.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, in one they banned all
Speaker 1: bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining went to zero in China and
Speaker 1: now it's back up to where it was before. So
Speaker 1: they just keep trying, but they can't stop it. UM.
Speaker 1: Let that be a lesson, no no, no nation. Can
Speaker 1: stop it, and so it dropped fifty percent of the
Speaker 1: time from there from time, so we have besides the
Speaker 1: original outlier like had barely got off the ground, we
Speaker 1: have a fifty six percent UM when there was the
Speaker 1: big hack from the Ponzi scheme, when China banned it,
Speaker 1: three percent when again Mount Cox crashed and had this
Speaker 1: big hack because it was the only game in town.
Speaker 1: So you're starting to see a trend here. Then more
Speaker 1: recent times, everybody remembers this. This one is the um.
Speaker 1: This is the biggest crash that we've had to date
Speaker 1: in history if we we if we get rid of
Speaker 1: that first one. And this is December, so this is
Speaker 1: when bitcoin really came onto the scene. I started buying
Speaker 1: it in so I got the benefit of I think
Speaker 1: it was about three hundred bucks when I started. I
Speaker 1: think the year started out seventeen about a thousand dollars,
Speaker 1: and by the end of that year had gone to
Speaker 1: twenty thousand. So that's a twenty x return inside of
Speaker 1: one year, which is amazing. If you've ever been around investing,
Speaker 1: that is like unbelievable returns. It was like nineteen thousand
Speaker 1: and change. It broke every record. It peaked near twenty thousand,
Speaker 1: we also saw um the legitimacy of bitcoin because the
Speaker 1: futures exchanged. CIME brought out futures which then legitimized it.
Speaker 1: Um I started getting real mainstream press UM. But then
Speaker 1: a couple of things happened. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, it was a full on attack against bitcoin.
Speaker 1: There was three powers that be that seemed to conspire
Speaker 1: and come against Bitcoin at the exact same time, and
Speaker 1: that caused it to crash. I'll tell you about those
Speaker 1: three things and how far I crashed and what we
Speaker 1: can learn from that as we look at the next
Speaker 1: two crashes. Either the way you listening to the Markma Show,
Speaker 1: we're talking about the decentralized revolution, we're talking about bitcoin,
Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies and the market crash that's going on right now,
Speaker 1: and and we're looking at some history to get some
Speaker 1: perspective as to where things are going next. You don't
Speaker 1: want to miss it. I'm want to talk about that
Speaker 1: and more, and then we'll use that as a guy
Speaker 1: to see where bitcoin could go and is now a
Speaker 1: good time to buy or not? All right, I'll be
Speaker 1: back with that and more in a minute. You don't
Speaker 1: want to miss it, so don't go away. I'll be
Speaker 1: right back. All right, welcome back. You are listening to
Speaker 1: the Mark ma Show, and we are talking about the
Speaker 1: decentralized revolution. That's right. We're talking about bitcoin. We're talking
Speaker 1: about cryptocurrencies. We're talking about the financial markets, and we're
Speaker 1: trying to make sense of it to know is the
Speaker 1: cheapest as expensive should we buy? Should we not? Is
Speaker 1: it gonna go down further or not? And so much more.
Speaker 1: We're talking about, um, the biggest crashes in bitcoin's history.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go back through all that if you're
Speaker 1: not If if you missed it, I'm sorry. UM, don't
Speaker 1: miss it again. If you're not driving, bull ut your phone.
Speaker 1: Put a reminder for the state this time this channel.
Speaker 1: Make sure you're tuning with me each and every week.
Speaker 1: And if you missed it, don't worry. Don't worry. I
Speaker 1: got your back. Um. You can just catch it on
Speaker 1: the podcast. Just search Mark Moss podcast. You can find
Speaker 1: on the iHeart Radio app, you can find on Apple
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast, check that out. And if
Speaker 1: you wouldn't mind, I would really appreciate a favor, and
Speaker 1: that would be whether you go listen to the podcast
Speaker 1: or not? What could you do me a big favor?
Speaker 1: You know, I'm out here working hard for you each
Speaker 1: and every week. If you would just go like it
Speaker 1: and leave me a good review, that would be greatly appreciated.
Speaker 1: Small little favor. Thank you all right now, Uh, just
Speaker 1: for that, I'm gonna recap it. So nine in two
Speaker 1: thousand eleven nine draw it out. But that was because
Speaker 1: big when it just got off the ground, it was
Speaker 1: there was only one place to buy it. There was
Speaker 1: the biggest hack, stole all the money. Okay, but again
Speaker 1: the only exchange in town, Max Cox a Mount Cox
Speaker 1: was shut down. Um December China band it dropped. I
Speaker 1: was just at December. Now, I said that there was
Speaker 1: three powers that be that conspired against it. So bitcoin
Speaker 1: had gone uh in a bull run sixteen and seventeen
Speaker 1: started January twenty seen a thousand, and by December it
Speaker 1: was just under twenty nineteen thousand and change. Now what
Speaker 1: happened is, um, I'm gonna come on. This is simple, right.
Speaker 1: Markets stopped going up when there's no more buyers. Simple
Speaker 1: markets also stopped going down when there's no more sellers.
Speaker 1: So as the prices were going up, up, up, up, Up, Up, Up.
Speaker 1: It started sucking in more buyers, sucking in more buyer. Second,
Speaker 1: everyone's like, oh, I'm getting rich. I bought it at
Speaker 1: four thousand, now it's a six thousand. I bought a
Speaker 1: six thousand, now it's eight thousand, and everybody wants to
Speaker 1: jump in. We as humans, were very simple. We rushed
Speaker 1: towards pleasure and we run from pain. So everyone's getting rich.
Speaker 1: I want that pleasure on buying. And so as it's
Speaker 1: going up, it starts sucking in more people, more people,
Speaker 1: more people. But eventually it starts running out of people
Speaker 1: to suck in. It kind of gets all the people
Speaker 1: that kind of believe in this tech and they're willing
Speaker 1: to take some risk and their investors, but it starts
Speaker 1: running out to people. But then the attack came. What's
Speaker 1: the attack? No, it's not the futures. What happened is
Speaker 1: simultaneously the new buyers, remember markets up went up with
Speaker 1: the new more buyers. The new buyers were taken out
Speaker 1: of the system. How what does that mean? Well, if
Speaker 1: you don't hear about it, and you don't know about it,
Speaker 1: how would you buy it? And the answer is you wouldn't.
Speaker 1: And so we saw Facebook and Google simultaneously ban all advertising.
Speaker 1: So now you weren't allowed to talk about um bitcoin
Speaker 1: and cryptocurrency on Google or any of their properties, or
Speaker 1: Facebook or any of their properties. And so people were
Speaker 1: advertising and talking about it, and people were hearing about
Speaker 1: and buying it. So there's new buyers coming in. But
Speaker 1: as soon as they took away the ability to talk
Speaker 1: about it and advertise it, then nowhere buyers. And then
Speaker 1: simultaneously the banks also attacked it, and so then no
Speaker 1: banks would allow you to transfer money to a cryptocurrency institution.
Speaker 1: They wouldn't let you transfer money, they wouldn't let you
Speaker 1: buy it off of your credit card, and so then
Speaker 1: they made it where you couldn't put money. And so
Speaker 1: even if you heard about it, which you it through
Speaker 1: Facebook or Google, but you heard about it through through
Speaker 1: word of mouth, and then you try to buy it
Speaker 1: on your own, then the bank's blocked you. And it
Speaker 1: happened at the same time, so they took away the
Speaker 1: new buyers. And when you're going up at a certain
Speaker 1: trajectory and you're sucking in all these what we call weekends,
Speaker 1: so these are people that don't really understand what they're buying.
Speaker 1: If you know if if you if you've been outside
Speaker 1: the country and you've seen the problem that the financial
Speaker 1: system is caused, and you see how bitcoin can solve that.
Speaker 1: You're a long term holder, right, um, you understand the
Speaker 1: value proposition of bigoin. But if you only bought because
Speaker 1: somebody told you if you buy it today you can
Speaker 1: make on it, then we call that a weekend. You
Speaker 1: don't know what you bob. And so what happens is
Speaker 1: if if we start running out of buyers, they take
Speaker 1: away the ability to talk about it, advertise and put
Speaker 1: money into it. But then it starts going down. As
Speaker 1: soon as it starts going down, all those people that
Speaker 1: bought at the top the weekends that doesn't know what
Speaker 1: they're buying, they sell. Wait a minute, I was told
Speaker 1: I was gonna get rich overnight. I was told I
Speaker 1: was gonna make a thousand percent of my money and
Speaker 1: I didn't, and now I'm actually losing money. I don't
Speaker 1: like this, and they start selling. And so just that's
Speaker 1: why markets get parabolic at the top, and they also
Speaker 1: crashed really fast at the top. All those weekends that
Speaker 1: came to the top that pushed it higher are the
Speaker 1: ones that sell the top and push it back down,
Speaker 1: and that's exactly what happened, and bitcoin ended up going
Speaker 1: down eighty four from there. That was fun living through that,
Speaker 1: not really, but actually it led me to you, So, UM,
Speaker 1: when they when, when we were when when they stopped
Speaker 1: us from any doing any doing act, doing any advertising
Speaker 1: for a bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. UM. Then in I started
Speaker 1: a YouTube channel, and actually my business partner at the
Speaker 1: time UM had started a YouTube channel. I was doing
Speaker 1: videos with him, and then eventually mid two thousand eighteen,
Speaker 1: I started a YouTube channel, which is now led to
Speaker 1: me having a podcast and me being on the radio
Speaker 1: talking to you right now. So UM, I guess, you know,
Speaker 1: I guess it worked out for us at the end.
Speaker 1: But anyway, it got really boring going through that process.
Speaker 1: It dropped and then we saw UM eventually hit the
Speaker 1: bottom and started climbing back up. And then there was
Speaker 1: another big crash, and this was March is when the
Speaker 1: pandemic broke out. The pandemic broke out and the all
Speaker 1: the markets crashed. I mean, they shut down the entire economy, right,
Speaker 1: They took away people's businesses and livelihood and the entire
Speaker 1: market crashed, and of course bitcoin crashed as well, and
Speaker 1: Bitcoin crash fift. Now, something to keep in mind here
Speaker 1: is that when the when the stock market started to crash,
Speaker 1: the SMP five, the NASDAC, et cetera, which of course
Speaker 1: they're crashing because they shut down the whole world economy. UM,
Speaker 1: they use something called circuit breakers. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you've ever heard that before. Basically, what the circuit breakers
Speaker 1: are is it's like a it's a it's part of
Speaker 1: the plunge Protection Team. I don't have you ever heard
Speaker 1: of that before, the p p P Plunge Protection PPT
Speaker 1: Plunge Protection Team. And basically UM, it's a team that
Speaker 1: protects the markets from plunging too fast. If you can
Speaker 1: believe that, UM and so UM, then they trigger the
Speaker 1: circuit breakers. But the markets dropping too fast, it trips
Speaker 1: a circuit breaker, and it basically stops all trading, is
Speaker 1: what happens. And so UM I think in March, don't
Speaker 1: have it in front of me, but I believe, I
Speaker 1: believe it happened seven times. Seven times they had to
Speaker 1: stop UM the stock markets UM from from going down,
Speaker 1: and it's still dropped thirty five cent. Okay, Now, Bitcoin
Speaker 1: didn't have any circuit breakers there was no plunge protection team,
Speaker 1: nobody was stopping it, and UM. The story is is
Speaker 1: that one of the big exchanges where you could go
Speaker 1: short on it UM with leverage bitmax at the time,
Speaker 1: UM it actually UM some of the bots that we're
Speaker 1: doing this automatic trading, we're stuck shorting it and and
Speaker 1: uh the system froze up and they couldn't go in
Speaker 1: and close them. And I believe someone had to actually
Speaker 1: do a D D O S attack against bit mex
Speaker 1: to take it down and get those bots from shorting
Speaker 1: it UM, which was pretty interesting. And so UM had
Speaker 1: had definitely had extreme circumstances UM. But if we ignore
Speaker 1: the circumstances, it drop no plunge protection team, no circuit breakers,
Speaker 1: may have dropped fifty and that brings us to today.
Speaker 1: So uh, here we are today and we have UM.
Speaker 1: We are down about seventy percent from the high as
Speaker 1: of right now. So how much further could it go? Well,
Speaker 1: the worst that we have in history. If we take
Speaker 1: out that original one from when it first started UM,
Speaker 1: then that means potentially we'd go back to the worst
Speaker 1: that we've ever seen. Would we go back down to
Speaker 1: UM eighty UM eight? That would push us down to
Speaker 1: about ten and a half, maybe eleven thousand ish if
Speaker 1: we went down that far, but I don't know if
Speaker 1: we will. UM. We have a couple of other indicators
Speaker 1: that can help us figure this out. I'm gonna tell
Speaker 1: you about that in a minute. Where the floor is
Speaker 1: on this um, where maybe some good entries are and
Speaker 1: some things like that. UM. I'll be back with that
Speaker 1: in two more. In a minute, you're listening to the
Speaker 1: Mark mo Show talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution. UM,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna come back and tell you where I
Speaker 1: think the price point is for bitcoin, that and more.
Speaker 1: Don't go away, I'll be right back. All right, Welcome back.
Speaker 1: You are listening to the markma Show. We're talking about bitcoin,
Speaker 1: We're talking about cryptocurrencies, we are talking about the decentralized revolution,
Speaker 1: and I'm specifically talking about bitcoin crashing. We just went
Speaker 1: through the history of the biggest crashes that we've seen
Speaker 1: in bitcoin to date, and then we're comparing that to
Speaker 1: where we are so UM, as I said, really, if
Speaker 1: we take out the one outlier. Right when bitcoin got started,
Speaker 1: there was only one place to buy it. It It got
Speaker 1: hacked and there was a huge hack, and and so
Speaker 1: we take that one out, we take that out. We
Speaker 1: had an eighty three percent crash in UM when the
Speaker 1: exchange crashed again, and then we had one in UH
Speaker 1: that was eighty three percent, and then we had an
Speaker 1: eighty four percent in December of twenty seventeen when the
Speaker 1: banks took away the money and UH the social media
Speaker 1: platforms took away the ability to UM advertise it. So
Speaker 1: eighty four percent is the worst. Besides, I said that
Speaker 1: that very first outlier. So if we go back to
Speaker 1: from the high today, as I was making the case
Speaker 1: that puts US, I'm kind of looking at the chart
Speaker 1: that puts US at approximately about hundred. So I'm not
Speaker 1: saying it's going to go down there, but I'm saying
Speaker 1: that would be the worst ever, which is about another
Speaker 1: you know, fifty drop from here, which isn't super fun. Now,
Speaker 1: we don't know that's going to be the case. We
Speaker 1: have no crystal wall. A better way to look at
Speaker 1: it is that there's something called a two hundred moving
Speaker 1: age weekly moving average, and so what it does is
Speaker 1: it takes the price UM and it looks at it
Speaker 1: over a four year period, which is an interesting time frame.
Speaker 1: Because bitcoin has a having cycles for every four years,
Speaker 1: it the the amount of new bitcoin being produced every
Speaker 1: day gets cut in half. The supply cuts in half,
Speaker 1: so supply and demand. If the demand stays the same,
Speaker 1: it's supply gets cut in half. What happens to the price,
Speaker 1: it goes up, right and so UM, the two weekly
Speaker 1: moving average moves long without four year time frame. And
Speaker 1: when we when we zoom out and we look at bitcoin, UM,
Speaker 1: it's only gone through this two weekly moving average UM
Speaker 1: like twice and just very very briefly, so it looks
Speaker 1: like back here in it just kind of barely dip
Speaker 1: below it for maybe two candles UM. Then of course
Speaker 1: March of we just talked about that it did dip
Speaker 1: below that UM. As a matter of fact, it went
Speaker 1: down about thirty below it, but only for only for
Speaker 1: just one week, as as it bounced back up pretty quickly. UM.
Speaker 1: And here right now today we're sitting right on that
Speaker 1: two hundred weekly moving average. So historically speaking, it has
Speaker 1: been the best to buy an opportunity to buy in
Speaker 1: at that price. Now, we don't know if history repeats,
Speaker 1: as as any financial advisor will tell you, and I'm
Speaker 1: certainly not one, but any financial advisor would tell you
Speaker 1: that to pass performance is no guarantee of future so
Speaker 1: we don't oh that. But like I said, it's been
Speaker 1: a what what some people call uh generational buying opportunity.
Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit too much hype for
Speaker 1: me to use, but it's traditionally been a very good point. Now,
Speaker 1: you know, records are meant to be broken, So could
Speaker 1: it dropped below that? It certainly can, but it looks
Speaker 1: like it has massive amounts of um of interest there.
Speaker 1: Whenever it gets down to that level, people are just
Speaker 1: buying it up like crazy, and so that's what we're seeing. Um.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, we've never really been we've
Speaker 1: never seen bitcoin in this current market environment that we're
Speaker 1: in today. And so what do I mean by that, Well,
Speaker 1: bitcoin has only been around since two thousand nine, and
Speaker 1: since two thousand nine, we've been in a long term
Speaker 1: secular bull market. That means the markets have just been
Speaker 1: going up since two thousand nine. Now, there has been
Speaker 1: some dips, don't get me wrong, but those are called
Speaker 1: cyclical dips. So there's are short term dips inside of
Speaker 1: a long uptrend mark it. And so bitcoin has only
Speaker 1: been around for that now we don't know, but it
Speaker 1: looks like there's a good probability that we could be
Speaker 1: going into a long term secular down trend market and
Speaker 1: we don't know how Bitcoin will respond in that, and
Speaker 1: so we don't know, and so trying to use this
Speaker 1: as history, Um, it doesn't guarantee anything, and it definitely
Speaker 1: doesn't guarantee anything at all. But like I said, it's
Speaker 1: it's sitting at the support, which is historically been a
Speaker 1: pretty good place to buy. So anyway, UM, the other cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 1: you know, they're kind of following that now. Most of
Speaker 1: the big, big name ones are down even worse than that,
Speaker 1: if you can believe it. It looks like a THEORUM
Speaker 1: is sitting right on that weekly two moving average as well. UM,
Speaker 1: So you know, we'll see what happens here. It's been
Speaker 1: a good day for the stocks. We saw that pretty
Speaker 1: much the entire stock market, the ones at least I'm
Speaker 1: looking at are in the green, meaning they're up UM.
Speaker 1: And it's weird because they rallied off of the Fed's announcements.
Speaker 1: So the FED came out and announced today that they
Speaker 1: are raising rates UM by a whole whopping zero point seven.
Speaker 1: It's not so much how big the raise was. It's
Speaker 1: more about the percentage gain of that raise. And UM,
Speaker 1: what's interesting is that they're doing this to try to
Speaker 1: calm the markets, to make pretend like they have some
Speaker 1: control over that, which of course they don't, and it
Speaker 1: looks like they're losing control because of the way the
Speaker 1: market responded to it. And so it was interesting when
Speaker 1: they raised rates, which they're supposed to or they're hoping
Speaker 1: to crush the market or crash the market because of that, UM,
Speaker 1: it actually responded the other way. And actually what happened
Speaker 1: is the markets went up. We saw gold go up,
Speaker 1: we saw bitcoin go up, we saw stocks go up,
Speaker 1: we saw the dollar index go down, which is very
Speaker 1: interesting and it almost means that the market doesn't believe
Speaker 1: eve that the Fed has control. And that's that's exactly
Speaker 1: what I'm seeing here. UM. Love to hear what you think. UM,
Speaker 1: if you're not following me on Twitter or on social
Speaker 1: media at all, you can find me on Instagram and
Speaker 1: on Twitter at the number one Mark Moss. That's just
Speaker 1: the number one numeral, the numeral one not spelled out,
Speaker 1: but hit me up on there let me know what
Speaker 1: you think. I'd love to hear what you have to
Speaker 1: say about that. But it's interesting, Um, if we look
Speaker 1: at this, you know, they're trying to tackle inflation. Supposedly,
Speaker 1: I say supposedly they are, and and that's because inflation
Speaker 1: continues to run hot. Now, UM, I talk about this
Speaker 1: all the time, so I'm sorry, but it's not the
Speaker 1: definition of inflation that I typically go with or what
Speaker 1: the Austrian economists would think of inflation. But they're talking
Speaker 1: about prices going up, and so prices are going up
Speaker 1: at the highest rate we've seen in forty years, which
Speaker 1: goes back to the eighties. Now, it's interesting if you
Speaker 1: break that down because we have inflation and they just
Speaker 1: CPI consumer price inflation came out at eight point six,
Speaker 1: so we haven't seen that high of CPI since the eighties. Now.
Speaker 1: It's interesting though, because in the eighties we measured CPI
Speaker 1: completely differently. So the way cp I is supposed to
Speaker 1: work is that you measure if I went to the
Speaker 1: grocery store and bought a basket of goods and I
Speaker 1: had a steak and milk and cheese, and then every
Speaker 1: single year you measure that t bone and the pound
Speaker 1: of meat. You know, it's t bone and cheese and milk.
Speaker 1: And every year I went back to the store and
Speaker 1: I bought the exact same thing, and you measure the
Speaker 1: price over time. But what they do is they change
Speaker 1: the basket, so they continue to change the basket to
Speaker 1: manipulate that number lower. There's a company called Shadow Stats
Speaker 1: that tracks it like they started out tracking it. Now
Speaker 1: their number comes out at over seventeen percent inflation. So
Speaker 1: they say it's the highest we've been in seven in
Speaker 1: in forty years, um. But that's with their manipulated down number.
Speaker 1: The reality is is that we are more than double
Speaker 1: where we were forty years ago, which is pretty interesting.
Speaker 1: I think it's pretty easy to see all we see
Speaker 1: and here is the talk of inflation, inflation, inflation in
Speaker 1: my limited amount of market research, let me know if
Speaker 1: I'm wrong, But in my limited amount of market research, UM,
Speaker 1: talking to my parents and some other old people that
Speaker 1: were around, and remember back then, they don't remember it
Speaker 1: being as big of a deal as it is today.
Speaker 1: And so at that time, Paul Volker, he was the
Speaker 1: FED chair, he decided to get crazy and he was
Speaker 1: going to raise interest rates so high that he was
Speaker 1: gonna get in front of it. And he did. He
Speaker 1: took interest rates from ten percent to twenty percent. If
Speaker 1: you can imagine that inside of about three years, I
Speaker 1: believe it was does a hundred percent increase and within
Speaker 1: a couple of years. But the Fed they've done more.
Speaker 1: Now I get it's only zero point to five, but
Speaker 1: it's the percentage of change, and we're looking at about
Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty percent increase in months as opposed
Speaker 1: to a hundred percent increase in years. Now, imagine if
Speaker 1: you're borrowing, costs shot up by a hundred percent a
Speaker 1: hundred in months, and that's where AT's the percentage that matters.
Speaker 1: Hopefully that makes sense. You're listening to the Mark Mo Show.
Speaker 1: We're talking about the decentralized revolution. We're talking about bitcoin,
Speaker 1: we're talking about cryptocurrencies, and we're talking about the greater
Speaker 1: macro markets that are affecting um all our investments, our money,
Speaker 1: and ultimately our livelihood. It's insane that somebody, um Jerome Pale,
Speaker 1: the phederal Reserve has the power to increase the money
Speaker 1: supply and make us feel wealthy and take it away
Speaker 1: and make us feel poor. And that's exactly what they're doing. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna come back. I got a lot more to
Speaker 1: cover in a minute. You're gonna want to hear it.
Speaker 1: All right, welcome back. You are listening to the Mark
Speaker 1: ma Show, and we are talking about the decentralized revolution
Speaker 1: that is changing the world as we know that. We're
Speaker 1: talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the markets, and politics and
Speaker 1: finance and technology and all these good things that you
Speaker 1: want to know about if you're trying to make context
Speaker 1: of what's going on in the world today. We're talking
Speaker 1: about bitcoin and and the dropping prices. We covered some
Speaker 1: of that, and you know what's inter I call this
Speaker 1: the decentralized revolution. So I talked about the world is
Speaker 1: like on a pendulum, and it swings back and forth
Speaker 1: on a two or fifty year time from and it
Speaker 1: swings towards centralization, globalization, and then it pushes back and
Speaker 1: swings to decentralization. Two or fifty years ago, the American
Speaker 1: Revolution pushed back on the centralization of the monarchy and
Speaker 1: set up a decentralized government. Of course, the United States
Speaker 1: was a republic. Two or fifty years before that was
Speaker 1: the Protestant Reformation, which saw the push back on the
Speaker 1: church and state. And here we are again pushing back
Speaker 1: on the centralization that we can see from the world
Speaker 1: economic form and health organization and on and on and on.
Speaker 1: But it's changing a lot of things. And uh, kind
Speaker 1: of like software changed everything. It to software rate the world,
Speaker 1: they say, right, and um, it changed the way that
Speaker 1: we consume content. It changed the way that we communicate.
Speaker 1: It wiped out books and music and movies and so
Speaker 1: much more. And now we're seeing bitcoin and this decentralized
Speaker 1: technology doing the same thing. And it's pretty amazing to
Speaker 1: sit back and watch, and it's it's happening so fast
Speaker 1: that it's starting to make governments look incompetent any relevant.
Speaker 1: And the more they try to fight this, I think,
Speaker 1: the more incompetent and the more irrelevant they look. Now
Speaker 1: you may think this is a bad thing. I particularly
Speaker 1: think it's a good thing. So let's let's take a
Speaker 1: look at that. So some of the things that I'm
Speaker 1: looking at. So obviously with bitcoin, that's that's an easy one.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that for a second. I'm gonna talk
Speaker 1: about another one. But obviously with bitcoin cryptocurrencies, um, we
Speaker 1: have now used software to have a way that we
Speaker 1: could store value. All right, I think bigger than just
Speaker 1: money in dollars. We now have a software, cryptographics, software
Speaker 1: that allows us to store value in a way that
Speaker 1: can't be stolen. And if I want to transmit it
Speaker 1: to somebody, nobody can stop it, block it or prevented.
Speaker 1: And its code. And now we've seen over in the
Speaker 1: EU they're trying to pass bills that say you can't
Speaker 1: self custody your own bitcoin or cryptocurrency. In the United States,
Speaker 1: people are talking about it. We haven't gotten to the
Speaker 1: point where they're really trying to do that, But think
Speaker 1: about this. It's cryptography. It's code. Code is ones and zeros,
Speaker 1: it's code. Now, the United States tried to outlaw cryptography
Speaker 1: at one point, they went to the Supreme Court, and
Speaker 1: Supreme Court said, no, you can't outlaw this. It's protected
Speaker 1: under free speech because look, it's code. They printed out,
Speaker 1: it was on paper. How can you ban free speech?
Speaker 1: You can't um And so it's already been upheld by
Speaker 1: the Supreme Corporate, of course, and other nations they could
Speaker 1: do it, and maybe you know who knows. The United
Speaker 1: States are trying to get around Constitution every chance they
Speaker 1: get these days. But think about this with bitcoin, of cryptocurrency.
Speaker 1: I can store my my value cryptographically and all I
Speaker 1: have to know is twelve words in my head. I
Speaker 1: could store one dollar, a thousand, a million, a billion,
Speaker 1: however much I had, and I don't need any device,
Speaker 1: I don't need any piece of paper. ALL need to
Speaker 1: know his twelve words in my head for the code
Speaker 1: for that cryptographic key. So is the government going to
Speaker 1: make it illegal for me to memorize twelve words? I mean,
Speaker 1: think about the insanity of that. They're gonna make it
Speaker 1: least so now so now, nope, you can't know those twelves.
Speaker 1: You can know other things, you can remember other things,
Speaker 1: but you can't know those those those words, like how
Speaker 1: how does that work? I mean the insanity of it.
Speaker 1: And so when you start to see governments trying to
Speaker 1: pass laws that say you can't know certain words in
Speaker 1: your head, they start to look irrelevant and incompetent. Now
Speaker 1: you may think that's a bad thing, maybe if you're
Speaker 1: a statist and you think the government should have complete
Speaker 1: control over us. I'm a freedom maximist. I believe in freedom.
Speaker 1: I believe that everything in life has a trade off,
Speaker 1: a cost benefit, all right, And so um tools can
Speaker 1: be used for good and bad. Look, tools can be
Speaker 1: used for geod and bad, and they do. Um. Baseball
Speaker 1: bats they're used for lots of good, lots of kids
Speaker 1: have fun, I mean pro sports, playing baseball, and sometimes
Speaker 1: they're used as a weapon and they really hurt people.
Speaker 1: Does that mean we should ban all baseball bats? Of course,
Speaker 1: the answer is no. And so we could look at
Speaker 1: the money. Um, should we make it where no one
Speaker 1: is allowed to hold their own wealth in a way
Speaker 1: that the government can't steal it from them? Now granted, okay,
Speaker 1: I mean some people, some terrorists I guess, could use
Speaker 1: money to do terrorists things. But should nobody will be
Speaker 1: allowed to hold money where the government can't steal it
Speaker 1: because maybe potentially a couple of terrorists might use it
Speaker 1: in my opinion, of course, the answer is no. You know,
Speaker 1: terrorists don't just use money to do bad things. They
Speaker 1: also used cars to drive around. They also use phones
Speaker 1: to communicate. I bet they even eat food and drink water.
Speaker 1: Should we ban all those things too? And of course
Speaker 1: that's ridiculous because of course no, we're not going to
Speaker 1: ban food and water. Why because the benefit of food
Speaker 1: and water so much greater than the risk, and so
Speaker 1: we have to look at things like that, and so
Speaker 1: I think that people should be free to do what
Speaker 1: they want. Um, now we have something else. Now we
Speaker 1: see in the United States there's an attack on guns,
Speaker 1: but that's also been digitized. And so now we have
Speaker 1: three D printed guns. And with these three D printed guns,
Speaker 1: now it's code. I can know the code in my head.
Speaker 1: They want to ban, they want to ban me having
Speaker 1: access to that, but I can just memorize it and
Speaker 1: I could just give it to somebody else. And now
Speaker 1: we have a three D printer that can print those.
Speaker 1: And there's an article that just came out was pretty interesting.
Speaker 1: Then a YouTuber three D prints the world's first rocket launcher. Wow,
Speaker 1: three D printing is revolutionized. Gun making has come a
Speaker 1: long way since a single shot liberator pistol was available
Speaker 1: for downloading. Now entire sematic pistol carbines can be entirely
Speaker 1: printed at home. And now it's graduated to rocket launchers.
Speaker 1: That's pretty amazing. Now rocket launchers could be good, used
Speaker 1: for good and bad. I suppose, Um, I mean, I
Speaker 1: guess it's kind of dangerous. You wouldn't want those end
Speaker 1: up in the wrong people's hands. But how do they
Speaker 1: stop it, and this is only going to continue, and
Speaker 1: this is the point. Um, And it's just interesting, and
Speaker 1: I don't, I don't, I don't know where I stand
Speaker 1: on this. Um. I certainly wouldn't want a bunch of
Speaker 1: guys just having rocket launchers, um, if they wanted to
Speaker 1: use those for bad But I suppose those same bad
Speaker 1: people could just get a car and drive it through
Speaker 1: a crowd. And those same bad people could go to
Speaker 1: the hardware store and get all the pieces they need
Speaker 1: to create, you know, a massive explosive. So I suppose
Speaker 1: if somebody wants to inflict pain, there's lots of ways
Speaker 1: they could do it, and they can't really stop it anyway. Um. Again,
Speaker 1: I'm not here to uh to really take sides on this,
Speaker 1: but I think it's interesting. I am taking sides on
Speaker 1: the money. You know, when the government tells you that
Speaker 1: you shouldn't do drugs, it doesn't make you want to
Speaker 1: do drugs. But when the government tells you that you
Speaker 1: don't have the right to store your wealth in a
Speaker 1: way that we can't steal from you, it makes me
Speaker 1: want to do that. Just like in the United States,
Speaker 1: every time they start talking about talking about banning guns,
Speaker 1: gun sales go up, and so UM, I think it's interesting.
Speaker 1: I think the more they try to um squash it,
Speaker 1: the more, like I said, irrelevant. They look. I mean,
Speaker 1: look at what they've done with the war on drugs.
Speaker 1: For the last forty years now, fifty years now, they've
Speaker 1: been trying to fight this war on drugs. Trillions of
Speaker 1: dollars have been spent trying to fight this war on drugs.
Speaker 1: And drugs have to be grown and cultivated, and they
Speaker 1: have to be processed and packaged, and they have to
Speaker 1: be shipped, and they have to be smuggled, they have
Speaker 1: to be distributed in all these things, and they can't
Speaker 1: even stop that. They can't even stop them from going
Speaker 1: into a prison. How the heck are they gonna stop
Speaker 1: bitcoin that's completely digital and anonymous and transparent. The answer
Speaker 1: as they can't, and they won't, and I believe they
Speaker 1: don't even want to. And I've covered out before. You
Speaker 1: can go back into my um you go back into
Speaker 1: the podcast, and you can look. I spent a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks on the podcast going through every single talking
Speaker 1: point of why bitcoin won't work. They're gonna make it illegal.
Speaker 1: They want to make it illegal. They're gonna crash it,
Speaker 1: on and on and on. Um, And I answered, though,
Speaker 1: so go check out the podcast if you want to know,
Speaker 1: um all my reasons for why that won't happen. And
Speaker 1: of course I'm a believer in bitcoin. But one of
Speaker 1: the things I love about bitcoin is it solved the
Speaker 1: oldest problem in history, the oldest problem since man was
Speaker 1: first on the earth, is how do I store my
Speaker 1: property in a way that can't be stolen? That's it.
Speaker 1: So we we made a tribe, and we made a village,
Speaker 1: and we made a kingdom, we made a country to
Speaker 1: protect our private property. But now I can remember twelve
Speaker 1: words in my head, and so I believe it's the
Speaker 1: most revolution stary thing we've ever seen. You listen to
Speaker 1: the Markma show talking about the decentralized revolution. That's what
Speaker 1: I got for you today. All right, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for listening.