WEBVTT - Big Stock Drop 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.440 Hello, and welcome to the Mark Moss Show. We are 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:05.680 talking about the decentralized revolution. Of course, we're talking about 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:08.880 bitcoin cryptocurrencies. We're looking at through the lens of the 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:12.360 world today. We're looking at politics, finance, technology and seeing 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:16.840 how it's all making sense. And when we look at 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:19.200 the world through that lens, we can all agree that 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.159 it is a wild, never a dull moment, which is 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:24.040 good for people like me who sit here and try 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:26.400 to talk for hours and hours, because it gives me 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:29.280 plenty of stuff to talk about. There's a quote that 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.080 I often use because every day I'm reminded of how 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.120 real it is. And it's by somebody who I shouldn't 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:40.120 be quoting, but Vladimir Lenin from Russian history, who was infamously, 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:43.279 you know, a bad ruler. Let's just let's just leave 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:45.800 it at that, um, But he said that there's decades 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:48.200 where nothing seems to happen, and then there's days where 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:50.520 decades seem to happen. And that's about where we're at. 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:54.400 And Uh, in the financial market, it's the fed um 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:57.320 raising rates again this week. Um. You know, how high 0:00:57.320 --> 0:00:59.280 will they continue to raise rates? The markets are crashing? 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:01.640 How will they how far will they continue to crash? Um, 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.680 the cryptocurrencies are marketing markets are melting down, Will they 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:07.080 disappear forever? Will they still be there in the future? 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:08.360 Is now a time to buy the dipper? And I 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.360 mean there's just a never ending amount of things to 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:13.399 talk about, and so I appreciate that because it gives 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:16.520 me lots of things to talk about. And uh, you 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.600 need to be paying attention more than ever before, because 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.440 we don't know what's going to happen. Um, it's more 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:27.920 uncertain than it's ever been. We have we have we 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:31.080 have land mines, we have potential triggers all over the world. 0:01:31.160 --> 0:01:33.120 And if we start on a big macro scale and 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:34.840 then get down into more of like what I would 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:36.560 consider macro, which is like a micro. Now, if we 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:40.480 start really big, I mean, we got three potential nuclear 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:46.120 situations that we're dealing with between Russia, between between Israel 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:50.840 and Iran, in between Taiwan and China, three and and 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:52.680 make it all happen in the next like six to 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:55.240 nine months. That's like that close. So that's really big. 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:59.840 We have we have the European Union about the break 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.680 up with countries going bankrupt. We have credit suites about 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:08.000 to blow up, which could take Italy, Malta, Spain, Portugal, Italy, um, 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.520 Greece with it. That's bad. Um. Japan is about to 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:15.560 have to start dumping US treasuries m or have its 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:19.760 currency completely blow up, which would then pull the US down. UM. 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:22.440 So hopefully I'm not depressing you too bad. But in 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:25.880 that backdrop of that, macro, of course, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:28.040 are taking a hit as well as US stocks are. 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:31.480 The Nasdaq is down, the SMP five hundred is down. 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:35.000 The SMP five hundred is holding up pretty good because 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:38.720 of one company, So the sp five hundred is weighted, 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:41.160 and the biggest company in there, which is Apple, that 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:43.840 makes up the biggest chunk of that weight, has been 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.240 holding up pretty well. And because it's holding up pretty well, 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:48.520 keeping that up with it. But don't let that fool you. 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.280 Dangerous there. And of course, like I said, the cryptocurrenc 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.520 space space, which is way more volatile, including bitcoin is 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:57.639 uh is barely hanging on and a lot of people 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:00.200 have been asking me where where will bitcoin and go 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:04.080 should I buy now? How far will it go down? 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:06.880 The answer is we don't know. That's the answer. We 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:09.040 don't know. What we can do is we could try 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:11.320 to look at a bunch of different indicators and tools. 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:12.760 We can look at history, and we can try to 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:14.239 use it as a guide. So let's look at that 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:17.160 a little bit of history here. So what we can 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:23.680 see is that throughout throughout pitcoin's life over the last 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:26.079 dozen or so years, it's been volatile. You know that. 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:27.640 You know that already. You hear that all the time, right, 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.040 it's volatile, volatile, volatile. So it goes up and down. 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:32.519 Now that's a good thing. That's a good thing. Um, 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:34.800 if it wasn't volatile, volatility works both ways, goes up 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.120 and down. So how would it go from zero to 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:41.000 what's it at? Now? How would it go from zero 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:43.320 to twenty one if it wasn't volatile? And then the 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:45.000 answer is it wouldn't. It would just be at zero. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:48.120 And so it's a good thing. Um, but if you're 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.480 staring at on a short term basis, it could be dangerous. 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:53.160 And so if we look at that, we can see 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:55.280 that there's been some big crashes throughout its history. And 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.720 a matter of fact, um, well, I thought we'd look 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:01.360 at some of the biggest ones in history. Now, the 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:05.120 biggest one in bitcoin's history doesn't really count in my opinion. 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:06.680 It's like an outlier. I want to kind of remove it. 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:08.920 But that's in two thousand eleven. So bitcoin had just 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:14.920 got going, um, and it went from two dollars all 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:18.440 the way to thirty dollars, all right, and it basically 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:20.760 was worth an ounce of silver, which was a pretty 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:23.400 big deal for something brand new, all right. But at 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:25.520 the time, there was no industry, right, there was no 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:27.159 there was no coin base, there was there was no 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:30.320 place to get it. There was one exchange, and it 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:33.239 was Mount Cox. You might have heard about Cox before 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:35.400 it famously blew up. People lost a lot of money. 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:39.800 It was the largest bitcoin exchange in the world, and 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.120 they admitted that criminals had hacked hundreds of accounts and 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:45.359 stole millions of dollars with the bitcoins in a single day. 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:48.400 And the value bitcoin fell to a one penny to 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:49.680 a penny, So that was pretty bad and it was 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:52.640 then dropped down. But like I said, that's kind of 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:54.720 like an outlier. Bitcoin had just got going. It was 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:58.719 only worth two bucks, um, you know, basically, um, you know, 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:00.800 millions of bitcoins were stole in a single day. The 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:03.880 only exchange there was crashed. UM. Nobody knew what the 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.280 heck it was and in the value fell. So that's 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:09.559 kind of an outlier if we put that one aside, Okay, 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:11.719 then let's go from there. So then in August two 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:17.320 thousand twelve, UM, we learned that there was a classic 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:20.000 Ponzi scheme updated for the digital age, had been builking 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:23.560 crypto investors for months, promising incredible returns of seven percent 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:28.760 a week UM, and they had stolen over seven hundred 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:32.719 thousand bitcoin at the time by by deception, and that 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:36.040 caused bitcoin to crash by about fifty six percent. That's 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:40.039 pretty big over half UM the big one. There's two 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.400 big ones, and these are ones that more relative. April two, 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.280 bitcoin was the victim of its own success. Investors piled in. 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:49.359 This is when I had first caught my eye. I 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.600 saw a bitcoin going up, up, up, up, up up 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:56.599 up UM, And this is the first time I caught 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:58.120 my I was like, maybe I should buy it. I 0:05:58.160 --> 0:05:59.480 see it going up. I think this could be a 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:01.760 big thing. Was new opportunity. Everyone was excited. They started 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:03.880 a buzz in in in kind of like the not 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:07.840 mainstream media, but kind of underground media. UM trading was 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:10.719 so intense that mount Cox couldn't handle the volume, and 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:13.960 when it crashed, then hackers attacked the vulnerability and it 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:19.720 forced mount Cox into an unprecedented total shutdown. Again back 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:24.640 to early early days, one exchange, super fragile, no redundancy. Today, 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.440 if one exchange goes down, no big deal. There's fifty more, right, 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:30.280 but then we can buy it on paypalen venmo, I mean, right, 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:32.640 But back then there was one, there was no redundancy. 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:34.600 So when it went down and sent prices from to 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:37.240 sixty all the way down to fifty bucks, that was 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:43.840 an eighty three percent draw down. December two, thirteen, UM 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:47.640 China bandit one of the thirteen times that China has 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:51.120 banned bitcoin. UM and China ban bitcoin at the end 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:55.760 of and it lost fifty per cent of its value overnight, 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.360 according to the Guardian. UM, of course, like I said, 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:01.520 it was like and of like thirteen times they've done it. 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:03.560 As a matter of fact, in one they banned all 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:06.560 bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining went to zero in China and 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.240 now it's back up to where it was before. So 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:11.600 they just keep trying, but they can't stop it. UM. 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:14.240 Let that be a lesson, no no, no nation. Can 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:17.760 stop it, and so it dropped fifty percent of the 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:22.280 time from there from time, so we have besides the 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:25.160 original outlier like had barely got off the ground, we 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:27.560 have a fifty six percent UM when there was the 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:31.480 big hack from the Ponzi scheme, when China banned it, 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.840 three percent when again Mount Cox crashed and had this 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:38.559 big hack because it was the only game in town. 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:43.440 So you're starting to see a trend here. Then more 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:48.200 recent times, everybody remembers this. This one is the um. 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:50.559 This is the biggest crash that we've had to date 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:52.960 in history if we we if we get rid of 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:55.600 that first one. And this is December, so this is 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.880 when bitcoin really came onto the scene. I started buying 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:02.080 it in so I got the benefit of I think 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:06.680 it was about three hundred bucks when I started. I 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.520 think the year started out seventeen about a thousand dollars, 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:12.480 and by the end of that year had gone to 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:16.120 twenty thousand. So that's a twenty x return inside of 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:18.520 one year, which is amazing. If you've ever been around investing, 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:22.760 that is like unbelievable returns. It was like nineteen thousand 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:26.720 and change. It broke every record. It peaked near twenty thousand, 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:31.080 we also saw um the legitimacy of bitcoin because the 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:35.200 futures exchanged. CIME brought out futures which then legitimized it. 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:39.760 Um I started getting real mainstream press UM. But then 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:41.959 a couple of things happened. As a matter of fact, 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:45.800 in my opinion, it was a full on attack against bitcoin. 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:49.880 There was three powers that be that seemed to conspire 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:53.440 and come against Bitcoin at the exact same time, and 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:55.960 that caused it to crash. I'll tell you about those 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:57.480 three things and how far I crashed and what we 0:08:57.520 --> 0:08:58.960 can learn from that as we look at the next 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.320 two crashes. Either the way you listening to the Markma Show, 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:04.600 we're talking about the decentralized revolution, we're talking about bitcoin, 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:07.679 cryptocurrencies and the market crash that's going on right now, 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:09.760 and and we're looking at some history to get some 0:09:09.840 --> 0:09:13.640 perspective as to where things are going next. You don't 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.160 want to miss it. I'm want to talk about that 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:17.960 and more, and then we'll use that as a guy 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:19.760 to see where bitcoin could go and is now a 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.440 good time to buy or not? All right, I'll be 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:24.679 back with that and more in a minute. You don't 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.200 want to miss it, so don't go away. I'll be 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:32.160 right back. All right, welcome back. You are listening to 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.560 the Mark ma Show, and we are talking about the 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:38.480 decentralized revolution. That's right. We're talking about bitcoin. We're talking 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.200 about cryptocurrencies. We're talking about the financial markets, and we're 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:44.000 trying to make sense of it to know is the 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:46.120 cheapest as expensive should we buy? Should we not? Is 0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:48.839 it gonna go down further or not? And so much more. 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:52.000 We're talking about, um, the biggest crashes in bitcoin's history. 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:53.920 I'm not gonna go back through all that if you're 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:57.160 not If if you missed it, I'm sorry. UM, don't 0:09:57.160 --> 0:09:59.360 miss it again. If you're not driving, bull ut your phone. 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:01.000 Put a reminder for the state this time this channel. 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:02.480 Make sure you're tuning with me each and every week. 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:05.240 And if you missed it, don't worry. Don't worry. I 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:07.760 got your back. Um. You can just catch it on 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:11.000 the podcast. Just search Mark Moss podcast. You can find 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:12.840 on the iHeart Radio app, you can find on Apple 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:15.720 wherever you get your podcast, check that out. And if 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:18.800 you wouldn't mind, I would really appreciate a favor, and 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:21.280 that would be whether you go listen to the podcast 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:23.120 or not? What could you do me a big favor? 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:24.640 You know, I'm out here working hard for you each 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.360 and every week. If you would just go like it 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:30.880 and leave me a good review, that would be greatly appreciated. 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:34.640 Small little favor. Thank you all right now, Uh, just 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:36.600 for that, I'm gonna recap it. So nine in two 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.120 thousand eleven nine draw it out. But that was because 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:40.800 big when it just got off the ground, it was 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:42.160 there was only one place to buy it. There was 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:48.520 the biggest hack, stole all the money. Okay, but again 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:51.079 the only exchange in town, Max Cox a Mount Cox 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:57.040 was shut down. Um December China band it dropped. I 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.839 was just at December. Now, I said that there was 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.559 three powers that be that conspired against it. So bitcoin 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:07.240 had gone uh in a bull run sixteen and seventeen 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:11.640 started January twenty seen a thousand, and by December it 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:15.520 was just under twenty nineteen thousand and change. Now what 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:18.199 happened is, um, I'm gonna come on. This is simple, right. 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:22.240 Markets stopped going up when there's no more buyers. Simple 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:25.440 markets also stopped going down when there's no more sellers. 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:27.920 So as the prices were going up, up, up, up, Up, Up, Up. 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:30.120 It started sucking in more buyers, sucking in more buyer. Second, 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:32.840 everyone's like, oh, I'm getting rich. I bought it at 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:34.439 four thousand, now it's a six thousand. I bought a 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:36.679 six thousand, now it's eight thousand, and everybody wants to 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.760 jump in. We as humans, were very simple. We rushed 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:43.600 towards pleasure and we run from pain. So everyone's getting rich. 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:46.000 I want that pleasure on buying. And so as it's 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.360 going up, it starts sucking in more people, more people, 0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:50.920 more people. But eventually it starts running out of people 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:52.520 to suck in. It kind of gets all the people 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:54.079 that kind of believe in this tech and they're willing 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.240 to take some risk and their investors, but it starts 0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:59.559 running out to people. But then the attack came. What's 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:03.720 the attack? No, it's not the futures. What happened is 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:08.160 simultaneously the new buyers, remember markets up went up with 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:10.080 the new more buyers. The new buyers were taken out 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.600 of the system. How what does that mean? Well, if 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:17.280 you don't hear about it, and you don't know about it, 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:18.920 how would you buy it? And the answer is you wouldn't. 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:26.080 And so we saw Facebook and Google simultaneously ban all advertising. 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.160 So now you weren't allowed to talk about um bitcoin 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.560 and cryptocurrency on Google or any of their properties, or 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:34.680 Facebook or any of their properties. And so people were 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.280 advertising and talking about it, and people were hearing about 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.480 and buying it. So there's new buyers coming in. But 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:42.880 as soon as they took away the ability to talk 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.120 about it and advertise it, then nowhere buyers. And then 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:49.040 simultaneously the banks also attacked it, and so then no 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.600 banks would allow you to transfer money to a cryptocurrency institution. 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.000 They wouldn't let you transfer money, they wouldn't let you 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:56.640 buy it off of your credit card, and so then 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:58.120 they made it where you couldn't put money. And so 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.360 even if you heard about it, which you it through 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:02.400 Facebook or Google, but you heard about it through through 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:03.640 word of mouth, and then you try to buy it 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:05.880 on your own, then the bank's blocked you. And it 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.640 happened at the same time, so they took away the 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.720 new buyers. And when you're going up at a certain 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:15.719 trajectory and you're sucking in all these what we call weekends, 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:18.160 so these are people that don't really understand what they're buying. 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.720 If you know if if you if you've been outside 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:22.439 the country and you've seen the problem that the financial 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.079 system is caused, and you see how bitcoin can solve that. 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:28.280 You're a long term holder, right, um, you understand the 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.760 value proposition of bigoin. But if you only bought because 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:32.440 somebody told you if you buy it today you can 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:34.559 make on it, then we call that a weekend. You 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:36.440 don't know what you bob. And so what happens is 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:38.360 if if we start running out of buyers, they take 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:40.800 away the ability to talk about it, advertise and put 0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:42.960 money into it. But then it starts going down. As 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:46.160 soon as it starts going down, all those people that 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:47.840 bought at the top the weekends that doesn't know what 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.360 they're buying, they sell. Wait a minute, I was told 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:52.319 I was gonna get rich overnight. I was told I 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:53.760 was gonna make a thousand percent of my money and 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:55.959 I didn't, and now I'm actually losing money. I don't 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.319 like this, and they start selling. And so just that's 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:00.960 why markets get parabolic at the top, and they also 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:04.040 crashed really fast at the top. All those weekends that 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:05.520 came to the top that pushed it higher are the 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:07.600 ones that sell the top and push it back down, 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:10.679 and that's exactly what happened, and bitcoin ended up going 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:17.160 down eighty four from there. That was fun living through that, 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.920 not really, but actually it led me to you, So, UM, 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:24.600 when they when, when we were when when they stopped 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.080 us from any doing any doing act, doing any advertising 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:32.400 for a bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. UM. Then in I started 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:35.400 a YouTube channel, and actually my business partner at the 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:37.840 time UM had started a YouTube channel. I was doing 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.040 videos with him, and then eventually mid two thousand eighteen, 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:41.920 I started a YouTube channel, which is now led to 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:43.760 me having a podcast and me being on the radio 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.280 talking to you right now. So UM, I guess, you know, 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:48.240 I guess it worked out for us at the end. 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:51.480 But anyway, it got really boring going through that process. 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:55.200 It dropped and then we saw UM eventually hit the 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.880 bottom and started climbing back up. And then there was 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:01.880 another big crash, and this was March is when the 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.440 pandemic broke out. The pandemic broke out and the all 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.040 the markets crashed. I mean, they shut down the entire economy, right, 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:11.240 They took away people's businesses and livelihood and the entire 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.680 market crashed, and of course bitcoin crashed as well, and 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:18.040 Bitcoin crash fift. Now, something to keep in mind here 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:21.680 is that when the when the stock market started to crash, 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:24.240 the SMP five, the NASDAC, et cetera, which of course 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.720 they're crashing because they shut down the whole world economy. UM, 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.320 they use something called circuit breakers. I don't know if 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:34.360 you've ever heard that before. Basically, what the circuit breakers 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:38.080 are is it's like a it's a it's part of 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.880 the plunge Protection Team. I don't have you ever heard 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:43.320 of that before, the p p P Plunge Protection PPT 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:47.800 Plunge Protection Team. And basically UM, it's a team that 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.480 protects the markets from plunging too fast. If you can 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.720 believe that, UM and so UM, then they trigger the 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:57.000 circuit breakers. But the markets dropping too fast, it trips 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.800 a circuit breaker, and it basically stops all trading, is 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:03.680 what happens. And so UM I think in March, don't 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.040 have it in front of me, but I believe, I 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:08.880 believe it happened seven times. Seven times they had to 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:13.360 stop UM the stock markets UM from from going down, 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:18.720 and it's still dropped thirty five cent. Okay, Now, Bitcoin 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:21.480 didn't have any circuit breakers there was no plunge protection team, 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:25.000 nobody was stopping it, and UM. The story is is 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:26.960 that one of the big exchanges where you could go 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:30.560 short on it UM with leverage bitmax at the time, 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:33.800 UM it actually UM some of the bots that we're 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:36.920 doing this automatic trading, we're stuck shorting it and and 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.520 uh the system froze up and they couldn't go in 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.240 and close them. And I believe someone had to actually 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.360 do a D D O S attack against bit mex 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:48.040 to take it down and get those bots from shorting 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:51.440 it UM, which was pretty interesting. And so UM had 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.840 had definitely had extreme circumstances UM. But if we ignore 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:59.400 the circumstances, it drop no plunge protection team, no circuit breakers, 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:06.960 may have dropped fifty and that brings us to today. 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:14.160 So uh, here we are today and we have UM. 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:20.040 We are down about seventy percent from the high as 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:26.720 of right now. So how much further could it go? Well, 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:28.760 the worst that we have in history. If we take 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.560 out that original one from when it first started UM, 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.320 then that means potentially we'd go back to the worst 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.399 that we've ever seen. Would we go back down to 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:41.879 UM eighty UM eight? That would push us down to 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:46.120 about ten and a half, maybe eleven thousand ish if 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:48.159 we went down that far, but I don't know if 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:51.560 we will. UM. We have a couple of other indicators 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.119 that can help us figure this out. I'm gonna tell 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:55.960 you about that in a minute. Where the floor is 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:59.000 on this um, where maybe some good entries are and 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:01.119 some things like that. UM. I'll be back with that 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:02.639 in two more. In a minute, you're listening to the 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:07.360 Mark mo Show talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution. UM, 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:08.960 and I'm gonna come back and tell you where I 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.080 think the price point is for bitcoin, that and more. 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.680 Don't go away, I'll be right back. All right, Welcome back. 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:15.879 You are listening to the markma Show. We're talking about bitcoin, 0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:20.000 We're talking about cryptocurrencies, we are talking about the decentralized revolution, 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:24.720 and I'm specifically talking about bitcoin crashing. We just went 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.120 through the history of the biggest crashes that we've seen 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:29.439 in bitcoin to date, and then we're comparing that to 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:32.600 where we are so UM, as I said, really, if 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.600 we take out the one outlier. Right when bitcoin got started, 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:36.960 there was only one place to buy it. It It got 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:38.840 hacked and there was a huge hack, and and so 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:40.720 we take that one out, we take that out. We 0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:45.280 had an eighty three percent crash in UM when the 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.479 exchange crashed again, and then we had one in UH 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.159 that was eighty three percent, and then we had an 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:51.560 eighty four percent in December of twenty seventeen when the 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.320 banks took away the money and UH the social media 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:57.719 platforms took away the ability to UM advertise it. So 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:00.480 eighty four percent is the worst. Besides, I said that 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.199 that very first outlier. So if we go back to 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:07.200 from the high today, as I was making the case 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:09.520 that puts US, I'm kind of looking at the chart 0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:15.919 that puts US at approximately about hundred. So I'm not 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:17.880 saying it's going to go down there, but I'm saying 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:20.240 that would be the worst ever, which is about another 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:24.680 you know, fifty drop from here, which isn't super fun. Now, 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:26.320 we don't know that's going to be the case. We 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:28.919 have no crystal wall. A better way to look at 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:33.920 it is that there's something called a two hundred moving 0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:36.639 age weekly moving average, and so what it does is 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.199 it takes the price UM and it looks at it 0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:41.880 over a four year period, which is an interesting time frame. 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:44.720 Because bitcoin has a having cycles for every four years, 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:48.040 it the the amount of new bitcoin being produced every 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:49.920 day gets cut in half. The supply cuts in half, 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:52.280 so supply and demand. If the demand stays the same, 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:54.720 it's supply gets cut in half. What happens to the price, 0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:59.200 it goes up, right and so UM, the two weekly 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:01.600 moving average moves long without four year time frame. And 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:04.600