WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: October 31, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:01.920 --> 0:00:05.320 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:09.039 Daybreak from Monday, October thirty two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:13.480 hundred enters the last trading day of October, up almost 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:16.200 nine percent for the month. Investors await this week's set 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:20.120 decision and jobs reports Barklay's trading revenue jobs estimates. We'll 0:00:20.160 --> 0:00:23.439 speak with the bank's CEO. And in Brazil, Luisa Nacio 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.680 Lula da Silva wins the presidential election. The man accused 0:00:26.680 --> 0:00:29.040 of attacking the husband of House Speaker Pelosi will be 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:32.360 charged today. Blest, South Bria mourns after a crowd crush 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.880 kills more than a hundred fifty people at Michael blarn 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.560 more than head John Stash Howard sports the Jets and 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.080 Giants four game win streaks, both game to an end. 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:44.560 The Knicks lost, the Rangers and Devils both won. That's 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:48.480 all straight Ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven, Freeo, 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:52.760 New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:57.080 six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, Syrius x 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:00.360 M one nineteen, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:08.720 dot Com. And via the Bloombird Business Act. Good Monday morning. 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:11.880 I'm Amy Morris, I'm Nathan Hagar. Futures are moving lower 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:13.800 this morning. We're coming up to six o one on 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:16.440 Wall Street. We checked the market's every fifteen minutes during 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.640 the trading day. On bloomberg SMP futures are down twenty points. 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.440 Staff futures down a hundred forty, Nastack futures are lower 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:26.480 by eighty one points. The tenure Treasury is down thirteen 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:29.120 thirty seconds now, the yield four point zero six percent 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:31.319 yield on the two year four point four nine percent. 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.360 NIMEX screwed is down one point one percent or ninety 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:37.480 five cents at eighty six ninety five of barrel comes 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:39.600 gold down two tenths per cent or three dollars thirty 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:42.679 cents at sixty one fifty announced and the euro right now, 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:46.880 Amy is trading at point zero against the dollar. Nathan 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:48.920 stocks entered the last day of the trading month and 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:51.480 rally mode D S and P five hundred, gaining almost 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:54.560 nine percent. In October, the dal Jones industrial average has 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.560 surged to more than fourteen percent. Michael Sheldon, its chief 0:01:57.600 --> 0:02:01.080 investment officer, at high Tower r D Infinite Group. The 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.920 Dow is the first of the major industries to move 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:07.200 back above their key two day moving averages, so that's 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:10.239 something a lot of investors watched, separating a longer term 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:12.839 rally versus a short term rally. None of the other 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.160 major markets have done that, but that's certainly something to 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:18.480 to monitor going forward. Tour r D M Financial Group 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:21.200 Michael Sheldon also notes the S and P five days 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:25.160 on its longest weekly winning streak since August. Well investors 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:27.839 have to potential market moving events this week. Game Either 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:31.040 FED makes an interest rate decision on Wednesday and the 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:34.840 government issues it's monthly employment report on Friday. Bloomberg's Any 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:39.040 del Judas reports economisty another jumbo US rate hike seventy 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:43.760 five basis points to stop red hot inflation. Consumer psychology 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:46.720 a key to snapping a price breakout, s just the 0:02:46.800 --> 0:02:49.600 FED as its work cut out. Americans see the cost 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.680 of living rising five percent over the next year, based 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:57.160 on University of Michigan data. Turning to America's labor market, 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:01.080 economists anticipate in October payroll game but not as robust 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.959 is September. The unemployment rate will probably remain low amid 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:09.680 historic labor shortages in many industries. Fini Del Judaece, Bloomberg Daybreak, 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.040 Thank you any The end of the FEDS campaign to 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:15.040 raise interest rates is approaching. That's the word from Mike Wilson, 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.960 who's the Morgan Stanley was a prominent stock market bear 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:22.680 who correctly predicted this year's slump inequities. Wilson says indicators 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.200 including the inversion of the yield curve between ten year 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.680 and three month treasuries all support a FED pivot sooner 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:30.960 rather than later. It's also going to be another busy 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:33.040 week for earnings amy with more than a third of 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:35.800 the companies in the SMP five reporting. The story from 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.760 Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. With more than two hundred sixty S 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:43.640 and P companies reporting so far, about seventy one have 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:49.440 delivered positive earning surprises despite some notable technology. Mrs Emily 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:53.400 Hill is founding partner at Bower Stock Capital Partners. You know, yes, 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:58.080 some earnings are exceeding this reasonably low bar, but overall 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:00.880 we have slowing growth and I think what we're going 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:03.360 to see is more of what we just saw from 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:05.920 big tech and in the first quarter of next year, 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:08.240 we're going to see the impact of the strong dollar 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:11.960 rising interest rates even more than we have now. In 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:14.560 addition to the healthcare giants, this week we will hear 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:19.560 from A M D, Airbnb, Conico, Phillips, Starbucks, Uber and 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:24.680 Young Brands. In New York Charlie Pellott Bloomberg Daybreak, Thank you, Charlie. 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.119 And in Europe, shares of Barclays are one point seven 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:31.920 percent higher. Trading revenue rose a greater than expected this game, 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:36.200 driven by fixed income, commodities and currencies. Trading exclude some 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:40.240 hedging losses tied to its mistakenly issued securities earlier this year. 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:43.320 In his first TV interview since taking on the top job, 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:47.680 Chief executive Officer C. S. Van katea Christian, spoke about 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:51.080 the UK economy with Bloomberg's francy and lakwax. What I'm 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:54.440 hoping you see is what people will call a soft 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:58.640 landing and shallow recession, helped by the initial conditions uh 0:04:58.680 --> 0:05:02.240 and and so what you might see an increase in unemployment. 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:06.719 You might see some credit witness among among customers, but 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:09.560 it won't be so bad that you see dispressed in society. 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.920 We'll bring you more of our conversation with Chief Executive 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:16.640 Officers cs Venkate Christian a little later in the program. Well, 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:19.279 another major story we're following this morning, amy takes place 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:22.279 in Brazil. It is a dramatic comeback for former president 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:25.920 Luis and Nacio Lula de Silva, the left wing politician 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:29.919 has won the presidential election, narrowly defeating incumbent Gyre Bollsonaro. 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.400 Three years ago, Lula was in a jail cell on 0:05:32.480 --> 0:05:36.520 corruption charges. Juan Pablo Spinetto is Bloomberg's managing editor for 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:40.720 Economy and Government in Latin America. Less than three years ago, 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.760 he was still in jail. So if we talk about 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:48.080 perspective um, this is probably one of the greatest political 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:51.799 comeback sides in my life. Lula was president for eight 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:54.280 years at the beginning of the century. He was one 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:57.640 of the most popular politicians on Earth. At some point 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:01.040 when Barack Obama was president, he he and the guy 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:05.080 right the most important and most popular president. Bloomberg Managing 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.400 editor Juan Pablo Spinetto says Bulsonaro has neither conceded the 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:11.679 race nor commented on the results. And another political news 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:15.039 this morning, Chinese Foreign Minister Whang you criticized US export 0:06:15.080 --> 0:06:17.880 curbs in a call with Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln. 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:21.359 Lang's comments about export controls were an apparent reference to 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:24.800 Washington's move earlier this month to restrict Chinese access to 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:27.840 chip making technology. On the economic front, and Asia aim 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.160 each China's factory and services activity contracted in October of 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:33.840 Bloomberg day Break, Asia anchor Bryan Curtis has more from 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:37.120 Hong Kong. The downshift suggests that COVID curbs and the 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:40.200 property CRISTI are taking a toll. The official p m 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.880 I fell to forty nine point two from fifty point 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:46.960 one in September and below estimates. The non manufacturing pm 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.599 I dropped to forty eight point seven from fifty point 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:53.800 six and also below estimates. Bloomberg Economics says, as bad 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:57.800 as these numbers are, they probably understate the true weakness. 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:00.960 New export orders slumped all the way to forty seven 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:04.880 point six and non manufacturing employment dropped to forty six 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:08.240 point one in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg day Break, 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.560 Brian thanks SMP futures now down twenty points, staff futures 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:13.840 down a hundred forty night and nastac futures are lowered 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.840 by seventy nine points. Straight ahead your latest local headlines 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:23.920 in the check of sports. This is Bloomberg Thanky Nathan 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:25.880 at six oh seven on Wall three. Let's bring in 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:27.680 Michael Barr to find out what else is going on 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.400 in New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.680 Good morning Amy. We're learning more information about the attack 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:37.320 on Paul Pelosi, the husband of how Speaker Nancy Pelosi. 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.840 It is said the suspect allegedly had a bag full 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:43.680 of zip ties along with a hammer he brought to 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:47.840 pelosi San Francisco home. The suspect, David D. Pap will 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:51.920 officially be charged today and arraigned tomorrow. Pelosi is the 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:55.120 latest in a growing wave of threats and plants against 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:59.760 elected officials on Face the Nation. Margaret Brennan asked Tom Emmer, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.680 Congressman and chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, about 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:06.640 a tweet he had posted several days ago of him 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:10.360 touting the Second Amendment firing a gun with the hashtag 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:14.239 fire Pelosi. Why is there a gun in a political 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:17.200 add at all? Well, would pink slip be more fitting 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:20.440 if it's about firing her exercising our second a meenment 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:24.119 rights heaven. The Second Amendment has been about the Second Amendment. 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:28.080 Hashtag Pelosi yes. Emmert said there is no place for 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:31.280 violence in our society. Face the nation can be heard 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:34.679 Sundays on Bloomberg Radio. At least a hundred fifty three 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:38.280 people were killed and dozens injured following a crowd crush 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:42.280 during Halloween celebrations in Seoul, marking one of the deadliest 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:46.000 incidents in South Korea in years. Bloomberg so he Kim 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:48.280 has more from Soul. Most of the victims who are 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:51.040 young people, those who are in their twenties and women 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:54.080 who couldn't endure the pressure they got from the card crush. 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:58.520 Bloomberg so he came from Seoul. President Yusak Joel declared 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.000 a period of national mourning and vowed to carry out 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:06.000 a thorough investigation. Republican Governor Brian Kemp and Democrats Stacy 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:10.520 Abrams squared off Sunday night in Georgia's governor race. Governor 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:14.199 Kemp praise the state's economy thankfully in Georgia because we 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:17.040 were open even when Miss Abrams didn't want us to be. 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:21.000 Our economy has been incredibly resilient. We've had two record 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:25.320 years for economic development. Meanwhile, Abrams during the debate, promised 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:28.920 voters she will not reduce taxes for the rich. As governor. 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:31.319 I will not only lower costs. I will put more 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:34.800 money into the pockets of working Georgians, of middle class Georgians. 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:37.000 But what I will not do is give tax cuts 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.360 to the wealthy and the powerful. The Abrams Kemp debate 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:43.560 aired on WSV. Drivers, look out for a little trick 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:47.040 or treaters in the Tri State area. It's Halloween. Meanwhile, 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:50.760 for the adults, the annual Halloween Parade returns to Greenwich Village. 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:53.959 Tonight Global News twenty four hours a day on air 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.800 and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than hundred journalists 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.360 and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. How Michael 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.480 bar and this is Bloomberg Gaming. All right, thank you, Michael, 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:06.719 six or nine on the Wall Street. Time Now for 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:10.160 the sports reports by Price Staate AUTI here's John dash Our, 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:11.920 all right, Amy. It was an awfully nice month of 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:14.360 October for the Jets and Giants. Both were hoping to 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:16.720 cap it with a fifth win in a row. Both 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:18.840 saw the winning streaks come to an end. Jets led 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:22.240 the Patriots at halftime, but the Pats court nineteen points 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:25.280 in a row, beat the Jets for the thirteenth consecutive time, 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.040 twenty two to seventeen at midlife. Not a good day 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.839 for Zach Wilson. Between a couple of touchdown fasts, he 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.680 threw three interceptions. One was the pass he was just 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.080 trying to throw away. There was a costly Jet penalty 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:38.719 in the first half, roughing the pastor that wiped out 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.240 an eighty yard pick six the Jets to all the 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:43.240 five and three the Giants in Seattle. The game was 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.520 tied at seven, then ten, then thirteen. In the fourth 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:57.880 quarter again on first down pumpt down the cottra who 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:04.000 want a drive with Cheet Tyler Larkin was not gonna 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:06.600 let this one get away. Tyro had the call. Tyler 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.480 Locket had dropped the TV pass earlier, also had a 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:11.959 fumble that led to the Giants only TV. Seattle scored 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:15.400 again four minutes later. Seahawks won twenty seven to thirteen. 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:18.720 Richie Jeans was a giant goat. He fumbled punts in 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.120 both halves and both led to Seattle scores. Giants are 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.800 six and two off next week, Nick's got a good 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:25.760 look at the guy they were trying to acquire in 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:29.280 the off season. In Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell scored thirty eight points, 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.600 made eight three pointers at twelve assist Calv's rally to 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.200 win one oh eight Rangers on them because advantage had 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:38.160 power play goals seven minutes left, won three two at Arizona, 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:41.079 Devil's Route in Columbus seven, and won the World Series. 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:44.560 Now in Philadelphia Asdos and Phillies one one go into 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:48.200 the Knight's Game three, John stash that wear Bloomberg Sports Team, 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:51.320 Thank you. John teaches a lower SMD features down twenty 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:55.160 del features down one six points. Now that features down 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:58.880 seventy nine points, ten year treasury down eleven thirty seconds, 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:01.800 the field four point six percent. That's more still to come. 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:07.240 On Bloomberg day Break. This is Bloomberg. The Bloomberg Sports 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.360 Report was brought to you by Audie. Don't let someone 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.840 else drive off and the Audi model you've always wanted. 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.360 Visit your local Dry State autie dealer to get behind 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:16.760 the wheel of yours today, or visit autie offers dot 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:24.360 com for more information, markets, headlines and breaking news. Twenty 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.199 four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:30.800 Business Out and at Bloomberg Quicktake. This is a Bloomberg 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:39.439 business lash. I'm Nathan Hagar. Futures are moving lower this morning. 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.160 We have SMP futures down twenty points down, futures down 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:44.760 a hundred forty nine. NASTAC futures are lower by eighty 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:47.240 two points. We check the markets every fifteen minutes during 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:49.920 the trading day on Bloomberg. Send your treasuries down eleven 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.360 thirty seconds. The old four point zero six percent yield 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.360 on the two year four point four eight n I'm 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:56.480 x scrude is down one point four percent, down a 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.120 buck twenty five at eighty six dollars, sixty four cents 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.400 a barrel. Call x goll down three tenths per center 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.240 for at all the sixty cents at sixteen forty announced. 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.320 The euro point two against the dollar, British pound one 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:10.720 point seven. The end is a one point four six. 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:13.560 That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.000 more on what's going on around the world. Michael Pathan, 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.520 thank you very much. Brazilians have delivered a very tight 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:22.840 victory to Louis Ignatio Lula da Silva in their presidential election. 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:26.319 He gives the leftist former president another shot at power 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:30.160 in a rejection of incumbent Jayer Bolson Naro's far right politics. 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:33.160 In the NFL, the Giants lost, Patriots beat the Jets, 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:37.920 the Commanders and one. NBA Nicks lost, Celtics beat the Wizards, 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:41.000 the Warriors lost, Devils and Rangers one. In Hockey Global 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.240 News twenty four hours a day on air and on 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:46.640 Bloomberg Quicktake, Power bout more than twenty seven hundred journalists, 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.320 analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr, this 0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:52.160 is Bloomberg Gaming, all right, Thank you, Michael. Six eighteen 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.640 on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:59.199 This is Bloomberg day Break. Former Barclay's Market chief s C. 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.199 S n A. Christian is now CEO of the story 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:05.480 UK Bank. He took over the top job after the 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:09.080 abrupt departure of its former chief executive. So now a 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.120 year end of the job, Van Cat is leading bark 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:14.480 Lays through a war in Ukraine, rampant inflation, and aggressive 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.679 central bank tightening. In his first TV interview since taking 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:20.800 the Helm Vancat, Spook exclusively, the Bloomberg's Franci and Lakwa. 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.360 I think the UK economy has had a lot of 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.800 support during COVID, and obviously there are you know, the 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:31.160 UK has been growing more slowly than it should. But 0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:33.520 the financial services industry, which is a large part of 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:36.040 the UK, is very competitive, but it's not the only one. 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.880 Health sciences, even technology, in parts of technology fintech are 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.440 very very bright stars in the UK. So the UK 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:44.200 has a lot going for it, and I don't think 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:47.480 you will see that kind of environment. I think what 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.920 what what I'm hoping you see is what people will 0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.680 call a soft landing and shallow recession, helped by the 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:57.360 initial conditions. Uh and and so what you might see 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:01.200 is an increase in unemployment. You might it see some 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:04.600 credit weakness among among customers, but it won't be so 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:08.400 bad that you see distress in society. However, it has 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.240 to be managed carefully and it has to be managed 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:14.200 aggressively with the balancing of the budget. And that's what 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.240 the Prime Minister has said in the last couple of days. 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:20.120 Are you expecting housing crush? I doubt it. Talk to 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.160 me a little bit about the last six weeks. So 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:24.640 you mentioned the guilt was there a moment where you 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:26.760 were in the office thinking like, I you know, as 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:31.480 Barclays you're one of of course the players in selling 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.760 and buying guilds with the margin calls coming in and 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.400 saying like, I don't know what happens in the next 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:39.040 two hours. So first of all, I think that I 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:43.960 think the the volatility was managed extremely well by the 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:48.760 very effective, targeted and time bound actions of the Bank 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.080 of England. So I think buying guilts, buying infatient linked 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:54.240 gills and then the report facility that they put in 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.600 working with the banking system all helped ease the pressure 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:00.320 in the crisis. And you know, you've got ten years guilty. 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.360 He is now back below where they were um at 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:05.000 the at the day of the Mani budget on the 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.720 twenty three September. As for us, I mean we are 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.920 large in the in the guilt's market. Um. What was 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:14.240 important for us as we saw it was this was 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:17.040 not a solvency issue at all. For the pension system. 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.840 It was a liquidity issue. And it was a liquidity 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.600 issue because what was a very important feature of the 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:25.920 UK pension system, which by the way, I think is 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.400 a good feature of the pension system, which is a 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.960 matching of assets and liabilities, which employed leverage created a 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.960 liquidity problem, so liquidity problem had to be managed. Is 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.200 liquidity you're the biggest concern for banks right now? I 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:42.800 mean we're again hearing, you know, the U. S. Treasury 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:45.680 Secretary having to do things maybe to put a bit 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.400 of extra liquidity to pat it out in the treasuring market. 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.440 Bank liquidity, I don't think is an issue. We've had 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.880 liquidity regimes, the you know, funding models are much much 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:57.840 more robust than they were in the financial crisis. I 0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:00.280 think part of what people are worried about and what 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.080 they saw in the guilt market was the liquidity in 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:07.560 underlying trading, which is that these markets are not deep 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:10.800 with smaller bit of a small bit offers in large 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:14.240 sizes of trades as they used to be fifteen years ago. 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.080 And I think part of it our banks are more 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:20.840 prudent in managing their risk. What's your relationship like with 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.480 with the new UK government? Have you had calls? Have 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.080 you have they given your assurance about windfall taxes? Well, 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.160 I think the government is brand new, so we obviously 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:33.000 many of the faces are very familiar faces and we've 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:35.720 been dead you know, in communication with them in many 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.600 for many years, and we always are with the government UM. 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:41.000 And you know, we are a wait to see their 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:45.800 proposals on on taxation, on fiscal policy, on all aspects 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:47.439 of it. Where do you see the city of London 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:50.359 being in four or five years? I mean that's maybe 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:52.960 too long a time frame. Should I say twelve months? Well, 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.639 it's it's both too long and too short. You know. 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.440 If here we are in the city and this city 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:01.879 has been the enter of finance for three d years 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:04.040 and it needs to be the center of finance with 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.440 three hundred more years, we certainly would wish that that 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.159 were the case. UM. And it is the center of 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:15.639 finance because of an excellent regulatory system, transparent fair It 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:20.840 is there because of great availability of talent UM and infrastructure, 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.960 soft financial infrastructure and hard financial infrastructure UM. And a 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:28.159 part of that is also a stable, predictable taxation regime. 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:31.040 So we hope that all those elements and ingredients remain 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:35.639 and continue to allow the city to flourish. And you know, 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:39.359 the Prime Minister book about investing in education in Britain, 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.679 and if you think about what drives the financial sector. 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.800 I mean you meet many of them. It's about the 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:48.720 wonderfully trained people in the UK and the wonderfully trained 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.080 people outside were able to come and work in the UK. 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:53.520 If the UK has lost something, when City of Lunds 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:56.080 has lost business to other parts of the world in 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:59.520 terms of you know, financial capitals, what do you need 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:04.360 from the government today for that to be reversed. Well, 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:07.359 some of it is what others do, right. So once 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:12.040 briggsit happened, um and you could not passport financial services 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:14.560 to London. All the major banks had to set up 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:19.120 trading enterprises in Europe. So that is irreversible, let's say 0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:22.800 for the time being. I think other than that, what 0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:25.600 we need is a continuation of what London has provided, 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:31.920 you know, education, infrastructure, people, great regulatory regime and UH 0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:38.119 and a stable and predictable you know, fiscal regime. Christians 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:41.080 speaking with Bloomberg's Francy and Laquix. You can catch that 0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:45.000 full interview on bloomberg dot com or on the Bloomberg terminal. 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:49.000 Futures are lower, SMB features down, twenty doll features down 0:19:49.080 --> 0:19:53.479 one points, nattack features down seventies six, the ten year 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.560 treasury down eleven thirty seconds. Can you yield at four 0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:59.360 point oh five per cent? Much more still to come 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:08.760 on Bloomberg Break. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather. 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.600 Mostly cloudy today going up to sixty five degrees with 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:14.000 scattered showers to night, down to fifty five and back 0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:16.760 up to seventy tomorrow with showers early in the morning 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:23.600 and mostly cloudy skuys tomorrow afternoon. Broadcasting live from the 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:27.680 Bloomberg Interacted Brokers studio in New York. Bloomberg E Living 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:31.400 Free On to Washington, d C. Bloomberg on to Boston, 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:34.920 Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:37.840 six to the country, Sirius XM to A one nine 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:41.720 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg Radio 0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:51.159 dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's six thirty on 0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:53.719 Wall Street. Good Monday morning. I may me Morris and 0:20:53.720 --> 0:20:56.040 I'm Nathan Hagar. We're about three hours away from the 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:58.159 open of US training time for the five things you 0:20:58.200 --> 0:20:59.760 need to know to start your day. Brought to you 0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:03.280 by Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers charges margin loan rates from 0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:05.560 three point five eight to four point five eight percent 0:21:05.840 --> 0:21:09.000 rates subject to change. Learn more at ib kr dot com. 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:12.680 Slash compare first. US futures are lower to start the morning, 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:14.880 but stocks enter this last day of the trading month 0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:17.600 in rally mode. This and P five hundreds gained almost 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:20.159 nine percent in October, while the Dow has surged more 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:24.320 than four Phil Orlando, chief ecuty strategist that Federated Hermes, 0:21:24.359 --> 0:21:26.439 thinks we are still in for a bumpy road ahead. 0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:30.240 There's been this perception among the market. We've seen this 0:21:30.440 --> 0:21:32.800 from that big rally mid June and mid August and 0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:35.040 then this rally over the last couple of weeks, This 0:21:35.200 --> 0:21:38.520 perception that there will be this immaculate decline and inflation 0:21:38.800 --> 0:21:41.280 which is going to allow the Federal Reserve to stop 0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:44.440 hiking interest rates and turn around and start cutting interest rates. 0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:47.120 We are not that sanguine. It's gonna be a problem 0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:50.560 longer than the market thanks. Phil Orlando with Federated Hermes 0:21:50.600 --> 0:21:53.720 is still positioning defensively as the Fed continues to tighten 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:56.639 monetary policy, and we're watching a couple of key events 0:21:56.680 --> 0:21:59.920 this week. If that makes an interest rate decision on Wednesday, 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:03.320 and the government issues its monthly employment report on Friday. 0:22:03.600 --> 0:22:06.760 Katrina L is a senior economist with Moody's Analytics. We 0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:08.720 have seen that the U S economy is still kind 0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:12.119 of roaring ahead, but momentum has definitely slowed, and I 0:22:12.160 --> 0:22:14.439 think what the Fed is really going to continue to 0:22:14.480 --> 0:22:17.240