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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that actions.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing up show.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash. Stop.

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Speaker 3: That's all we'll see. Most gamble is when they go

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Speaker 3: to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabari.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action and Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 4: I am your host, Chris Raybonds NFL Week four. We

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Speaker 4: got some touchdowns for you on this show. I'm joined

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Speaker 4: by one of the most accurate rankers in the game,

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Speaker 4: Sean Kerner. We got touchdown betting guru Jill Galant on

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Speaker 4: the show. Hit a few of these last week, Jackson Halls,

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Speaker 4: Jordan Mason, Calvin Austin, Garrett Wilson, O, Maryon Hampton, Don

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Speaker 4: Jay Scatterbo So current, I'll start with you.

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Speaker 3: How you feeling a nice call? Uh move? That was

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Speaker 3: you on a Mason two touchdowns last week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a good hit.

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Speaker 5: But the best hit of the week was your Jackson

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Speaker 5: Hawes pick.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't think anybody heard it.

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Speaker 5: It wasn't out in time, but hopefully we get these

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Speaker 5: Thursday night bangers out so everyone can hit this along

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Speaker 5: with us.

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Speaker 2: But great call on Hawes last week.

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Speaker 4: Oh now I'm going oh for the rest of the year.

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Speaker 4: Like the fact that it did it. I don't think

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Speaker 4: it got out either, but you know, it is what

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Speaker 4: it is.

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Speaker 1: Jill, how you feeling, I'm feeling good man, And honestly,

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Speaker 1: like with Hawes or even like Ryan Miller, the like

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Speaker 1: that you had the week before your injury, vulture right

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Speaker 1: now man, where you're able to just completely target the

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Speaker 1: guys who are going to get these opportunities based on

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Speaker 1: the inactives, and it's just been a delight to see.

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Speaker 4: All right, I mean, we'll try to keep it going.

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Speaker 4: Uh you got we got to host weight. We will

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Speaker 4: start with a Thursday night game again, and we'll hopefully

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Speaker 4: this is out and people are hearing it by the

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Speaker 4: time Thursday Night game drops, and it will go game

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Speaker 4: by game the rest of the weekend.

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Speaker 3: Got three.

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Speaker 4: Primetime games this weekend too. Remember we have the Sunday

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Speaker 4: night and a two Monday games. So yeah, so we

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Speaker 4: got some We'll have some partways for those Sunday and

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Speaker 4: Monday night games, and before we get out and track

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Speaker 4: them in the Parlway Express account in the Action apps. Also,

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Speaker 4: if you want to tail some of these bets, all

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Speaker 4: you gotta do look for the quick slip link in

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Speaker 4: the podcast and video description or go to Action network

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Speaker 4: dot com slash bet now. Thursday Night Football, Seahawks at Cardinals.

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Speaker 4: The totals pretty well around forty three and a half,

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Speaker 4: so not looking like too much of an exciting game.

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Speaker 4: I'll start us off, I guess because I'm in the

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Speaker 4: outline first print. Maybe because of that Halls picked that

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Speaker 4: nobody heard. But I'm gonna go with Tory Horton, another

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Speaker 4: rookie in this one.

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Speaker 3: He's four to one.

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Speaker 4: He already has touchdowns and back to back games. Joe,

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Speaker 4: I think I kind of said it in jest maybe

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Speaker 4: two episodes ago, that Horton was a guy to better,

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Speaker 4: but he's been covered through and then I like him

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Speaker 4: because he's getting snaps in the red zone and he's

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Speaker 4: played just as many past game stats as Cooper Cup.

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Speaker 4: In the last game, now, it was a blot against

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Speaker 4: the States, but he was in there as a starter

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Speaker 4: right along with Cups.

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Speaker 3: So uh, you know, there's a chance eventually Horton is.

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Speaker 4: The guy who overtakes cup in two wide sets, but

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Speaker 4: either way, uh, in this spot against Arizona, they play

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Speaker 4: a lot of you know, coverage in the red zone.

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Speaker 4: So I think the guy like Horton who could beat

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Speaker 4: coverage is important because JSN is always going to be,

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Speaker 4: you know, that that top target, and if you make

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Speaker 4: it check, if you make him check it down, there's

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Speaker 4: no guarantee that they get in. So I want a

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Speaker 4: guy by Horton that's probably still gonna get a one

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Speaker 4: on one young enough in his rookie season, So I'll

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Speaker 4: go with him at four to one sean, which.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with Greg Dortch here at six to one.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think he's he's gonna see the biggest

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Speaker 5: jump in terms of playing time with Zay Jones out

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Speaker 5: here with the concussion. Because dorts is only runner out

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Speaker 5: on twenty two percent of dropbacks this year, I have

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Speaker 5: him you know, closer to fifty five percent yep tonight.

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Speaker 5: You know, he scored multiple touch downs in three straight seasons,

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Speaker 5: so you know he's not immune to the end zone,

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Speaker 5: and he's you know, a guy with multiple different paths

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Speaker 5: to score. You know, he can get in as a

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Speaker 5: receiver he's really good after the catch. Sometimes they scheme

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Speaker 5: up rush attempts for him. I think that could be

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Speaker 5: the case tonight. You know, James Connor out for the season.

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Speaker 5: This is a really good run defense in Seattle, so

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Speaker 5: they might scheme up a rush attempt or two for

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Speaker 5: him tonight. But he's also their kick and punt returner.

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Speaker 5: And you know, with this season we're having you know

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Speaker 5: what twice as many kick returns. That just boosts someone

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Speaker 5: like him his chances of scoring even more.

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Speaker 2: So. I like Dortch here at six to one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mentioned that Horton he's the punt return too,

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Speaker 4: So we got both of the returners in this game.

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Speaker 3: So I guess, Joe, your.

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Speaker 4: Pick is kind of hoping that these returners don't score.

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Speaker 1: You go, Well, I was wondering if I should just

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Speaker 1: now parent defense the special team. Well, I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: with the guy who has the biggest edge right now

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Speaker 1: in our action appropria as for any time touchdown odds,

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Speaker 1: and that's Kyler Murray. We're really threatening the needle to

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Speaker 1: with three touchdown props on a total of forty three

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Speaker 1: I think right now for this game. So I love

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Speaker 1: the odds, though, for Kyler because and again this is

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Speaker 1: now the third week I think I've taken Kyler on

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Speaker 1: this podcast.

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Speaker 3: Part of the.

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Speaker 1: Reason why is just again the carries are there, like

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Speaker 1: twenty carries over three games. He's not just being passive

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Speaker 1: in the pocket. One thing that I liked against the

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Speaker 1: Niners last week, and I thought that we were going

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Speaker 1: to see this, is that he was getting some carries

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Speaker 1: inside the ten yard line. He had two last week

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Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers and just been scrambling a

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Speaker 1: lot too. He's fourth amongst all quarterbacks in total scrambles,

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Speaker 1: second in yards per scramble, and like a lot of quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: but especially for Kyler, he will see a big jump

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Speaker 1: in scramble rate when he sees pressure in the Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: I mean through three games, fourth and pressure rate per dropbacks.

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Speaker 1: So James Connor is out. You know, Trey Benson, even

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Speaker 1: though he is the red hot name and fantasy I

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Speaker 1: imagine again a little unproven. I think Kyler this is

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Speaker 1: a week that he could get his touchdown and I

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Speaker 1: love his odds over plus three hundred right now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Seahawks not only high in pressure rate, but I

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Speaker 4: believe they're one of the top teams pressure rate in

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Speaker 4: the red zone. I believe I saw the number of

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Speaker 4: about fifty percent, like half of the opponent's dropbacks in

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Speaker 4: the red zone. That's a good sign for Kyler because

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Speaker 4: it was I think it was last year they were

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Speaker 4: or when he came back from the injury, they were

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Speaker 4: doing the you know, they would put the backup quarterback

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Speaker 4: in for the sneaks. But I don't think they're gonna

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Speaker 4: do that anymore this year. So and Bensingen has got

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Speaker 4: stuffed a lot in his career at the goal one.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I like Kyler as well. Parlay those three

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Speaker 4: picks together. Tory Horton anytime touchdown, Greg Dorts anytime touchdown

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Speaker 4: in Kyler and you get one twenty to one on DraftKings.

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Speaker 4: So this will be tracked in the Parlay Express account

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Speaker 4: and the Action Network app. So be sure to follow

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Speaker 4: that Parlay Express Action Network ap for this parlay and more.

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Speaker 4: And we'll start with the Sunday Sleep. We will start

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Speaker 4: it off early. We got another we got an early

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Speaker 4: game too. I should have mentioned that in Dublin and

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Speaker 4: Ireland we got the Vikings against the Pitts Steelers.

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Speaker 3: Vikings.

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Speaker 4: I like justin Jefferson the score here at plus one sixty.

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Speaker 4: The Steelers, you know, they are a defense that you

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Speaker 4: know they do have some good corners, but there's just

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Speaker 4: been a lot of miscommunications and things for them in

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Speaker 4: the red zone, and they actually are willing to blitz

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Speaker 4: down in there. Jeffers has been the first read on

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Speaker 4: most of those type of plays. They will play man

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Speaker 4: coverage down and in quose and I expect the Vikings

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Speaker 4: to be able to move the.

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Speaker 3: Ball in this spot.

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Speaker 4: And then on the other side, going with John new

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Speaker 4: Smith at plus three seventy five, he's the guy who

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Speaker 4: out of the two tight ends you'll fried Ruth and Smith,

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Speaker 4: they seem to be splitting snaps, but I think you'll

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Speaker 4: see Geno, excuse me, John Who get ahead of prime

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Speaker 4: more often than not. We saw that last game when

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's in certain game scripts where they where they have

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Speaker 4: to throw more, which I think will be in the spot.

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Speaker 4: I think John Who is going to be the guy

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Speaker 4: because he's a slot receiver. We've seen him in the

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Speaker 4: red zone getting snaps there too. So I like John

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Speaker 4: new Smith at plus three seventy five. I think he

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Speaker 4: should be closer two about three to one here. So

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Speaker 4: let's go into the Sunday afternoon slate, and we got

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Speaker 4: the Jackson d Arasetts to begin in New York. We

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Speaker 4: have the Chargers going across the country to MetLife to

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Speaker 4: face the Giants.

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Speaker 3: Kerner, who do you I like in this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: So for the Charger side, I'm gonna go Chalky here

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Speaker 5: with a Marion Hampton at minus one twenty. I mean,

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Speaker 5: he should see an increase in usage now with Naji

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Speaker 5: Harris out for the season, and he's already been operating

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Speaker 5: as their clear goal line back. He's seen all four

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Speaker 5: rush attempts inside the five. He's only scored once on those,

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Speaker 5: so he probably should have one more touchdown based on

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Speaker 5: that usage. And this is a great spot for him

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Speaker 5: on the ground anyway. The Giants ranked dead last in

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Speaker 5: DVA against the run. They've allowed four different running backs

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Speaker 5: to score a touchdown so far this season, so this

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Speaker 5: looks like a great spot for Hampton. Hell, even go

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Speaker 5: with the two touchdown bat with him too. I don't

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Speaker 5: even know what the odds are, but it's probably worth it.

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Speaker 5: And then I gotta go with my guy here, Jackson

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Speaker 5: Dart getting his first start. I can't I can't have

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Speaker 5: the Giants game and not go with them to score here,

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Speaker 5: because I think the best way to invest in Dart

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Speaker 5: in his opening start is through his rushing upside. He

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Speaker 5: reminds me a ton of Josh Allen, where you know,

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Speaker 5: he's literally seeking out contact, sometimes maybe to a fault.

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Speaker 5: You know, his injury risk is probably a bit higher

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Speaker 5: until he learns how to slide and not take so

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Speaker 5: many hits. But you know, he's looking to run. And

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Speaker 5: I think just the fact that at his first start

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Speaker 5: he's probably gonna lean on his legs a little bit

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Speaker 5: more until he does get more comfortable inside the pocket.

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Speaker 5: So I think, you know, plus three fifty this is

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Speaker 5: probably one of the best ways to investing him early on.

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Speaker 2: We might not see, you.

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Speaker 5: Know, as any time touchdo on price this high if

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Speaker 5: his rushing upside is as good as I think it

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Speaker 5: will be. So I'm gonna go Dart here at plus

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Speaker 5: three fifty.

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Speaker 1: I'm seeing Hampton right now, Kerner at five to one

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Speaker 1: for two touchdowns in that game.

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Speaker 2: Boom, take it, love it.

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Speaker 4: All right, we'll see if I'll see if he got

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Speaker 4: some two touchdown bets in this one Carolina at New England.

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Speaker 4: I mean, New England should have had like five touchdowns

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Speaker 4: in the last game. I don't know how they came

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Speaker 4: away with just fourteen points. Who do you like for

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Speaker 4: Panthers Patriots?

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Speaker 1: Feels like it's a Steelers luckbox game too, like where

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Speaker 1: they're just creating turnovers out of nowhere out all the time.

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Speaker 1: Now we get to play the Panthers from a Patriots standpoint,

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Speaker 1: all right, So I'm gonna start on the Panthers side.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to actually cop Raybon. These are two picks

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Speaker 1: that you have given out in the first three weeks,

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Speaker 1: and I think these guys are the odds are still

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Speaker 1: kind of consistent to where they are, but better matchups.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take David Moore at plus nine hundred

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Speaker 1: on the Panthers side because Xavier, look at he missed

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Speaker 1: last week. The other thing when I'm reading about Lagett's

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Speaker 1: injury is that he might be back this week. I

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Speaker 1: still think he's not going to play like that full

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Speaker 1: share of snaps. So I think David moore snaps are

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Speaker 1: going to increase because in week three now he didn't

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Speaker 1: really have to do much against the Falcons, but he

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Speaker 1: played ninety seven percent of snaps game. So then you're

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Speaker 1: playing against this new England pass defense, which has just

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Speaker 1: been awful through three weeks, four or five touchdowns allowed

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Speaker 1: to outside wide receivers. Checking on David Moore snapcount, he's

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Speaker 1: playing eighty percent of snaps on the outside through three games.

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Speaker 1: Plus the other thing too, Christian Gonzalez, I believe, is

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Speaker 1: supposed to be back for this game. So if he

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Speaker 1: is back, he's probably gonna shadow Ted McMillan a lot.

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Speaker 1: And if that's the case, then I don't want anything

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Speaker 1: to do with that side of the field. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take the other wide receiver on the outside. That

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Speaker 1: would be David Moore. He's around plus nine hundred right now.

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Speaker 1: Now on the Patriots side, Austin Hooper he's around plus

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Speaker 1: six to fifty. And I think what's gonna happen here

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Speaker 1: is after that two touchdown game from Hunter Henry last week,

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Speaker 1: there's just gonna be a lot more love for Hunter

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Speaker 1: this week, whereas I feel like Austin Hooper is getting

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Speaker 1: a little bit forgotten because Raybow and you kind of

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Speaker 1: laid this out last week. He's playing over sixty percent

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Speaker 1: of snaps and this Panthers team a lot of his

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Speaker 1: own a lot of Cover three third highest rate of

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Speaker 1: Cover three in the NFL and their bottom three and targets,

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Speaker 1: catches and touchdowns to tight ends this year just only

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Speaker 1: one touchdown though allowed, whereas last year they allowed the

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Speaker 1: most touchdowns to tight end. So I feel like it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of carryover right now from what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing on this defense. And then of course Hooper's route rate,

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Speaker 1: it nearly triples when he's facing zone coverage and he's

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Speaker 1: done well versus Cover three, so three touchdowns last year,

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Speaker 1: still sitting around plus six fifty. I think that's the

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Speaker 1: way you want to go if you're going to be

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Speaker 1: taking the Patriots, because I don't think you could depend

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Speaker 1: on somebody like Ramandre Stevenson or you know, just any

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Speaker 1: of the whiteouts like Kayshawan Boody or the Mario Douglas

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Speaker 1: I he's even allowed on the field anymore. There's just

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Speaker 1: so many bad so much bad blood on this team

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Speaker 1: with some of these guys that it's like, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to trust them right now in the spot. Whereas

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Speaker 1: I feel like Austin Hooper is still decent odds around

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Speaker 1: plus six to fifty.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and some of the receivers have struggled.

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Speaker 4: They've it looks like they've gone more to those those

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Speaker 4: two tight end packages for New England. Next up, we

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Speaker 4: got the Eagles at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Eagles tend

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Speaker 4: to struggle in this spot, but I'll start with the Bucks.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Bucky Irving at plus one twenty here,

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Speaker 4: nothing fancy. I just look at the Eagles injury report,

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Speaker 4: and you know, we already know Nikobe Dean started the

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Speaker 4: year on the pump.

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Speaker 3: Noan Smith, you know his trice that he hurts, triceps.

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Speaker 3: He'll be out.

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Speaker 4: Zach Bond and John Campbell both on the injury report,

298
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Speaker 4: which is questionable for this week. So I think the

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Speaker 4: linebacker spot is a spot where the Bucks will want

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Speaker 4: to exploit, whether that's in the run game or whether

301
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Speaker 4: that's with Irving, you know, going out in the route.

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Speaker 4: I think they're gonna need him a lot in this

303
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Speaker 4: spot and that's how they're gonna attack it. And on

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Speaker 4: the other side, aj Brown at plus one ninety. We

305
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Speaker 4: know he was kind of the squeaky wheel a little bit,

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Speaker 4: ended up getting his first touchdown in week number three.

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Speaker 4: And in this spot, the Bucks are just so good

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Speaker 4: against the run, you know, with videvea in the middle,

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Speaker 4: and that also could extend to the touch push. You know,

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Speaker 4: it might be a little harder against the Bucks than

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Speaker 4: most teams. So I think the next you know option

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Speaker 4: there for the Eagles is going to be aj Brown

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Speaker 4: because it'd be hard for Barkley, it'll be hard for Hurts.

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Speaker 1: A J.

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Speaker 4: Brown's kind of big, physical guy, and we've seen that

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Speaker 4: against the Bucks. You know, Wizard scored on them, Dico

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Speaker 4: Collins scored on them. Draco London should have had probably

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Speaker 4: two touchdowns. Yeah, one I think got dropped and one

319
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Speaker 4: got overturned and then he got injured, and then there

320
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Speaker 4: was another one right to his same spot with the

321
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Speaker 4: backup end that I think it was Hodge wasn't even

322
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Speaker 4: looking for the ball, So the Bucks numbers against receivers

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Speaker 4: could look a lot worse. They also gave up one

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Speaker 4: to Garrett Wilson, the number one receiver on the Jets

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Speaker 4: last week as well, So number one receivers and kind

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Speaker 4: of bigger physical guys. Sometimes they're one of the same,

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Speaker 4: but that describes a J. Brown to a T so

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Speaker 4: plus one ninety going with him in Eagles Bucks next

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Speaker 4: up we got the Commanders going to Atlanta, Atlanta off

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Speaker 4: the scoring no points in the prior game against Carolina Kerner.

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Speaker 3: How you handling this one?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So I'm gonna go with Chris Moore at eleven

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Speaker 5: one on the Commander's side, and they're a shit show

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Speaker 5: trying to project right now. You know, More might be

335
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Speaker 5: the only healthy skill player they have at the moment

336
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Speaker 5: because Noah Brown still hasn't returned to practice with his

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Speaker 5: growing injury. He was out last week. That's why More

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Speaker 5: stepped up and saw a sixty five percent drop back

339
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Speaker 5: rate last week. Terry mclaurin's banged up has yet to

340
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Speaker 5: practice with a quiet injury, although he's the type player

341
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Speaker 5: where he probably doesn't need to practice. You know, he

342
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Speaker 5: could play if he's ready to go that day. But

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Speaker 5: I consider Brown closer to the doubtful side. And then Deebo,

344
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Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on with him. He saw

345
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Speaker 5: his snaps limited again last week. He didn't even play

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Speaker 5: in the first drive two weeks ago. We still don't

347
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Speaker 5: know why that happened. No More, Ausinckler Bill is questionable

348
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Speaker 5: and More. You know he's a downfield type of threat.

349
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Speaker 5: His A dot was you know, closer to seventeen yards

350
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Speaker 5: downfield so far, so you know, all he needs is

351
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Speaker 5: one big play and he could potentially score a touchdown.

352
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Speaker 5: So if you know Jane Daniels is also questionable, Jesus Yeah,

353
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Speaker 5: if Jane Daniels plays, both Brown and Terry are out.

354
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Speaker 5: I mean, Chris Moore at eleven to one, locking that

355
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Speaker 5: in is going to look like a steal. So I

356
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Speaker 5: like getting him this early in the week with all

357
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Speaker 5: this uncertainty. I think either way, you know, Noah Brown's

358
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Speaker 5: probably gonna miss and he's probably still worth it, but

359
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Speaker 5: there's even more upside to lock this in earlier in

360
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Speaker 5: the week. And then yeah, on the falcon side, I'm

361
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Speaker 5: gonna have to go with Kyle Pitts here at plus

362
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Speaker 5: three forty. He's finally seeing the playing time that we've

363
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Speaker 5: been hoping for for what four or five seasons. Now,

364
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Speaker 5: you know, he's now seen a ninety six percent routes

365
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Speaker 5: run right in back to back games, so you know

366
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Speaker 5: he's just gonna have massive usage or massive upside with

367
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Speaker 5: that kind of usage. But sure enough, you know, the

368
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Speaker 5: offense collapsed last week that failed to score, so you

369
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Speaker 5: know you think they're gonna bounce back this week. I

370
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Speaker 5: think Pitts is probably the best bet here at plus

371
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Speaker 5: three forty.

372
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think the found bounce back here. And

373
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Speaker 4: the Commanders, I mean they also their number two tight

374
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Speaker 4: end is out John Bates.

375
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Speaker 3: He looks like he's gonna miss, So that just makes it.

376
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Speaker 4: More likely that you know they are in you know,

377
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Speaker 4: one to one personnel or something like that, and it

378
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Speaker 4: is a receiver that gets it to the end zone.

379
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Speaker 4: Next up, we got the Browns at the Detroit Lions.

380
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Speaker 4: Browns play an excellent defense right now, but Detroit doesn't

381
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Speaker 4: really care about that. They just put up a ton

382
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Speaker 4: of points on the Baltimore Ravens put up fifty plus

383
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,359
Speaker 4: on the Bears the week before that. Jill, who are

384
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Speaker 4: looking at for Lyons Browns?

385
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Speaker 1: Yeah, this one is fun because it's essentially the man

386
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Speaker 1: Coverage Bowl, Like, both of those teams just play a

387
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,240
Speaker 1: shit ton of man coverage, a lot of Cover one.

388
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Speaker 1: So if that's the case, I'm gonna take Jamo. I'm

389
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,680
Speaker 1: taking Jamison Williams. He's around plus two twenty. And again

390
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Speaker 1: you brought up the defense like, I don't want any

391
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,159
Speaker 1: part of Gibbs or Montgomery in this matchup. It's not

392
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Speaker 1: because I don't think they can score. It's they're both

393
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Speaker 1: priced right now, like they scored twice last week, and

394
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Speaker 1: they're basically against a Browns defense that just is not

395
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 1: allowing anything on the ground. And I think with Jamo too.

396
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Speaker 1: The other thing is that he looked great in the

397
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Speaker 1: first quarter when they were moving the ball, but then

398
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,679
Speaker 1: they didn't really the Lions kind of went with a

399
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Speaker 1: more of a run heavy approach in the second half

400
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 1: of just completely dominated the line of scrimmage, so they

401
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 1: weren't really throwing as much. They were more waiting to

402
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 1: throw it on third down. I think they're gonna have

403
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:22,679
Speaker 1: to throw a little bit more here because of the

404
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 1: Browns and their defense, who do play man coverage at

405
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 1: a top five rate. They're also twenty fourth in defense

406
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 1: of Devoi versus the deep ball and a lot of

407
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Speaker 1: cover one, so that kind of checks all the boxes

408
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 1: for JMO. So I think as long as Jared Goff

409
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Speaker 1: just doesn't spam a mom Ross ain't Brown over and

410
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,440
Speaker 1: over again, i think we're gonna see a JMO long

411
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Speaker 1: bomb touchdown. So that's on the Lion side. On the

412
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Speaker 1: Brown side, keeping it simple, I'm just going with Cedric

413
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Speaker 1: Tillman just because more of an odds play than anything,

414
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Speaker 1: because I was almost looking at Jerry Judy in this spot,

415
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 1: but he's around plus two to forty, Cedric Tilman around

416
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,880
Speaker 1: plus three thirty. And Tilman, even though one of those

417
00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 1: touchdowns was kind of fluky, he still does have two

418
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Speaker 1: touchdowns in three games, playing nearly the same amount of

419
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 1: snaps browts as Judy. So for me, I just don't

420
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Speaker 1: think that there should be that much of a divide

421
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Speaker 1: between the two given that they're playing nearly the same

422
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,479
Speaker 1: amount and playing the same amount and have been as

423
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Speaker 1: effective as the same amount as a certain type of defense.

424
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Speaker 1: And then also big road underdogs, there's a potential for

425
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Speaker 1: a trailing game script. So I imagine Joe Flako was gonna

426
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,919
Speaker 1: sling it down the field very often. So Cedric Tillman

427
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Speaker 1: is my favorite Brown in that game.

428
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Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe we could get the parway going with It'll

429
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:30,239
Speaker 4: be Tillman, Keon Coleman, and Tongus. I think those are

430
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 4: the three guys that have caught titball touchdowns this year.

431
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 4: Intended Intended for somebody else. Next time we got the.

432
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Speaker 3: Titans at the Texans, Titans.

433
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Speaker 4: I'm going with Shimri DK at seven to one. I

434
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 4: think Kerner was on this last week, should have got

435
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 4: in the end zone. But what's what's crazy about DK

436
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 4: is that he's a kick returner, so he gets opportunities

437
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 4: that way. But most of the time, the top opportunity

438
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 4: to get a just in terms of touches in the

439
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 4: red zone, it's going to be a running back because

440
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,159
Speaker 4: you know, he could get carries that's usually fifty to

441
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 4: fifty or more the team's running there, and then he'll

442
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 4: get targets as well. For the Titans, DK is tied

443
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,120
Speaker 4: with Tony Pollard for the wed with six. He's got

444
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:14,160
Speaker 4: five red zone targets and to carry that was initially

445
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 4: rolled a touchdown and then got overturned. So they are

446
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 4: trying to get this guy in the end zone. You know,

447
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 4: just so many more target than anyone else. And if

448
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 4: they're if Houston, I mean Houston's dealing with a lot

449
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 4: of injuries now in the secondary and I don't know,

450
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 4: Stinglee doesn't look right. They just released Gardner Johnson, so

451
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 4: their secondary could be a little bit in flux. So

452
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,400
Speaker 4: I think this could be a time when DK could

453
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 4: exploit that and on the Titan side, gotta go I mean,

454
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 4: excuse me. On the Texans side, I gotta go with

455
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 4: Nico Collins because we hear sneed chirping. So you know

456
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 4: that the Texans, if they even sniffed the end zone,

457
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 4: are going to try to get Collins in there. But

458
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 4: Collins has really been their most consistent guy. It's not

459
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 4: really working out with any of these ancillary options. You know,

460
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 4: thought about Woody Marks, but he's start to get priced up.

461
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 4: People are starting to take note of him. His snapcount

462
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,640
Speaker 4: going up. Whereas when you look at the Titans defensively

463
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 4: like they they've been, they've been exploitable.

464
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 3: I think by wide receivers.

465
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 4: Sutton got one on him in week one, Devonte Adams

466
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 4: got one on in the week two, and then Pickman,

467
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,719
Speaker 4: so you had all the kind of number one or

468
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 4: the X receiver types go and score on Tennessee. Through

469
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 4: three weeks, I think Nico Collins continues to trend, So

470
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 4: going with him.

471
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 3: At plus one.

472
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 4: Twenty, RAMS hosting the undefeated coach that should be undefeated.

473
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 4: Rams are hosting the undefeated Coats Kerner, Who do I

474
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 4: like this one?

475
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna have to go with my guy eighty

476
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 5: Mitchell here at plus four eighty. Alec Pearce remains in

477
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 5: the concussion protocol. I think he's gonna miss this week,

478
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 5: and whenever Alec Pierce misses, I want all the eighty

479
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 5: Mitchell touchdown stock I can get because he's usually the

480
00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:01,199
Speaker 5: one for one replacement for Pierce. You know, deep threat,

481
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 5: big play type of receiver, so he fits that role perfectly.

482
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 5: You know, the undefeated Colts have yet to really have

483
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 5: a trailing game script yet, so this is a game

484
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 5: where they could be trailing. You know, Indiana Jones might

485
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 5: need to be a little more aggressive and push downfield

486
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 5: to Adie Mitchell. Hopefully Ady Mitchell knows when he's throwing

487
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 5: the ball to him. Sometimes he runs a wrong route

488
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 5: or something like that. He's kind of a project, but

489
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,959
Speaker 5: load to a talent. So anytime I can kind of

490
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 5: invest in his upside, like this spot where he's going

491
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 5: to see a lot more playing time, I like doing that.

492
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 5: And then on the other side, I'm gonna go back

493
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 5: to the well for Jill. Here with DeVante Adams two

494
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 5: touchdowns at plus seven point fifty. You know, he's been

495
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 5: great in his first few games with the Rams. You know,

496
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 5: he scored in back to back games. Now last week,

497
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,679
Speaker 5: he could have easily had two touchdowns maybe three. Right

498
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 5: there was like a couple that he nearly scored on,

499
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 5: so I mean he almost had a massive game. So

500
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 5: I think investing in this market, you know, with the

501
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 5: two touchdowns is probably the best way to go with

502
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 5: him right now. And I thought that he would elevate

503
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 5: you know, the Rams offense and Stafford, specifically in the

504
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 5: red zone. That's why he took Stafford over twenty two

505
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 5: and a half passing touchdowns. I think on the season

506
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 5: that was before the back injury came out, so hopefully

507
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 5: Stafford could stay healthy. But clearly he's making a difference

508
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 5: for this offense and Stafford. And we have to remember that,

509
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,679
Speaker 5: you know, Stafford missed most of training camp with the

510
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,199
Speaker 5: back injury, so he and DeVante they've been kind of

511
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 5: out of sink in the first couple of weeks. So

512
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 5: the more chemistry they get, the more you know lethal

513
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 5: this duo is going to be. So love going back

514
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 5: to the well here with Devonte two plus scores at

515
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 5: plus seven fifty.

516
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Stafford even said that he's got to get used

517
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 4: to how quickly Adams gets open and kind of throw

518
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 4: the ball quicker and they did hook up on a

519
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 4: longer touchdown that, like Adams is just wide open, beat

520
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 4: his man right off to snap. I Saints at the Bills,

521
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 4: biggest spread of the week, around fifteen and a half. Joe,

522
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 4: what are you looking at in Saints Bills?

523
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Saints. I'm gonna keep it simple because Spencer

524
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 1: Ratler bothers me as a quarterback. I don't really enjoy

525
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 1: watching him play, but he does spam Chris A Labe

526
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 1: a lot with targets, and I think that's really where

527
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 1: we have to go. He's around plus two to seventy.

528
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: He leads the NFL in total targets. He's got four

529
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 1: end zone targets so far. And when you look at

530
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 1: who the Bills have given up touchdowns to, four or

531
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 1: five receiving touchdowns allowed by the Bills are two outside

532
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 1: wide receivers. So and I also think the one thing

533
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 1: that I like about Lave barring he takes like a

534
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 1: huge crushing hit over the middle, is that I do

535
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 1: think he's a little bit gamescript proof for this because

536
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: I think the Saints maybe they get maybe they get

537
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum early, he might score, they

538
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: might feel like they have to be aggressive because they're

539
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 1: huge road underdogs, or they trail by like fifteen twenty

540
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 1: points at halftime and are throwing the entire second half.

541
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: So unless you want to take like Rashid Shaheed to

542
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 1: catch a bomb over the top, which again I would

543
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 1: not be mad about, I'm just gonna go a guy

544
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 1: with who has literally like a thirty five percent target

545
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: share right now in this offense. So and then on

546
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 1: the Bill side, Kerner, I'm gonna I'm gonna tell you

547
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: right now, this is straight out of your playbook. I'm

548
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: taking Ray Davis here because there is a couple of

549
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 1: ways you could play Bill's touchdown scores. If you think

550
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a close game, maybe you want to

551
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: play Dalton Kink just given how he has played against

552
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 1: that type of defensive front. But I think this is

553
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: gonna be one of those blowout style of games. And

554
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: if it is, then that's when we want Ray Davis.

555
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 2: Right, because.

556
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: You laid out the case last week against the Dolphins,

557
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: like his volume tends to just see a huge uptick

558
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: when they're leading by eight or more points, and that's

559
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: similar to kind of what we saw in week two

560
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: when they were blown out the Jets. He had nine

561
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 1: carries in week two as opposed to just one or

562
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: two in week one. In week three, so I think

563
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: Ray Davis is the guy that we want at plus

564
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: three seventy five, and let's bank on a Bill's blowout.

565
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 1: Maybe even take Ray davis last touchdown.

566
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 3: Ray Davis, man, where has he been?

567
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 4: I feel like I feel like he like somehow he

568
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 4: doesn't get on the field as much as he should.

569
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 3: Like he's no, he's kind of like buried.

570
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 5: He kind of got benched by Ty Johnson last week.

571
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 5: So Jill, you could have said it's the Kerner one

572
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 5: week early phenomenon where.

573
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I hit on one of those that the Russell

574
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 4: Wilson betting that it's definitely happening this week.

575
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 5: Ray Davis back into his normal role that he's had

576
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 5: for nineteen straight games. You know, eight carries for thirty

577
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 5: yards and two touchdowns like in garbage time. But yeah,

578
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 5: last week zero touches when I had is over but

579
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 5: who knows why that happened. But yeah, usually these are

580
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 5: the spots to back him.

581
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's he's he's he's a true number

582
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 4: three running back now, so he does need like the

583
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 4: the Keaton Mitchell Rashiina we you know, game script out now,

584
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 4: all right, we are on to Jacksonville at San Francisco.

585
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 4: This is an interesting game the Jaguars. You know, defense

586
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 4: has been better, offense has been missing a lot of

587
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 4: opportunities in San Francisco. I mean just quarterback situation has

588
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 4: been odd. So everyone's hurt. Who you go with this one, Curner.

589
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, for the Niners, I gotta go with McCaffrey here

590
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,719
Speaker 5: to score two or more touchdowns at plus three twenty

591
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 5: just because they're you know, they're wide receiver and tight

592
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 5: tight end. Room is a mess right now. And now

593
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 5: Ricky Piersall's dealing with an injury. He you know, he

594
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 5: returned to practice, but like I mean, nobody could say healthy.

595
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 5: But McCaffrey is healthy. And when he's fully healthy, you

596
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 5: know he he loves a rack up touchdowns. It could

597
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 5: be you know, rushing or receiving. Again, with all these

598
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 5: pass catchers missing time, he's just even more involved as

599
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 5: a pass catcher. So I like him here and this

600
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 5: is by far the biggest edge in our prop tool.

601
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 5: McCaffrey to score two or more touchdowns at plus three

602
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 5: twenty and the Jaguars side is a little bit trickier

603
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 5: right now, but I'm gonna go with Parker Washington at

604
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 5: plus three fifty because you know, Danny Brown returned to

605
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 5: practice today, but he's you know, still dealing with shoulder injury.

606
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 5: He might not suit up again this week. If he's out,

607
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 5: you know, Washington would step up as the clear number

608
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 5: three receiver. But in reality, he's been their best receiver

609
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 5: in the past two weeks, which is crazy. But just

610
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 5: with Brian Thomas Junior struggling with whatever's going on wrist injury,

611
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 5: head like mental injury with drops, and Travis Hunter just

612
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 5: you know, playing a ton on defense, he's not really

613
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 5: having as big of a role on offense as we thought.

614
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 5: So Parker Washington's led the team and receiving the past

615
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 5: two weeks, even in like a limited role, so he

616
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 5: might have earned more snaps and targets as a result.

617
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 5: So I like buying in on him here at plus

618
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 5: three fifty.

619
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, Parker Washington, And I think the two weeks ago

620
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 4: he came in wait and was targeted like six times

621
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 4: on ten routes or something like that. So Yeah, he's

622
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 4: definitely Tanner Hudson roll right, Yeah, yeah, until this year

623
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 4: where he's just you know, like invisible and scratch. But yes,

624
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 4: absolutely Baltimore at KC case trying to come back from

625
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 4: the dead here, but Baltimore kind of just is dead

626
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 4: both of these teams at.

627
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 3: One and two. So it's the one in two bow Jill,

628
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 3: where you going.

629
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: Well, Just before I say that, I just wanted to

630
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: also mention about Parker Washington a fun fact about him.

631
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: He is actually the most profitable Jaguars anytime touchdown score

632
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: in each of the last two seasons. So it's just

633
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: funny with him avow he gets involved, and so I

634
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: really love that pick. But yes, let's talk about Chiefs Ravens.

635
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,719
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep it real simple. We're gonna go with

636
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,239
Speaker 1: Mark Andrews, especially if he's over plus two hundred. He's

637
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: plus two thirty five from what I see, rebounded huge

638
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: in Week three two touchdowns, led the Ravens with three

639
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: end zone targets, and the.

640
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 2: Chiefs this year.

641
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: One thing that's been a little bit different about this

642
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: Spags defense, and maybe they're just adjusting week to week,

643
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: is they've been playing way more cover two and two

644
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 1: high safety this year compared to last year where they

645
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: were playing way more man coverage, and we've seen now

646
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 1: in two games they were just completely removed wide receivers

647
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: out of the equation, like you couldn't see anything from

648
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: the Eagles standpoint, and the Giants they couldn't get anything

649
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 1: going as well on the passing side either. And then

650
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: I think, also this is gonna be the Chiefs first

651
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: what I would call real test against the top quality

652
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: tight end. You look who they played, not the knock

653
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: on Will Disley, who's we're a friend of the show,

654
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: but you know, Will Disley's not exactly on Mark Andrews level.

655
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 1: Grant Calcatara, Theo Johnson, like those guys are not on

656
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 1: that Andrews level of end zone targets. So also I

657
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: think if the Ravens run game struggles, because that is

658
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: what the Chiefs have been really effective at the last

659
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: two weeks, I just like Lamar Jackson to be a

660
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: little bit more of a passer in this one and

661
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: that should help Mark Andrews, who's been just an end

662
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: zone beast in his career as a Raven. Now on

663
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: the Chiefs side, this is the probably the most frustrating

664
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 1: team for me to bet on for any time touchdown scores,

665
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: because they still get priced like it's twenty twenty one,

666
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: like they're, you know, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcey peak offense

667
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: kind of thing, and it's just not the case, like

668
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: they're not moving the ball and scoring at that same pace.

669
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: So I think you got to go with that one

670
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: constant in the offense, and that's just got to be

671
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt. He scored Week three versus the Giants. He

672
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: clearly has the trust of the Chiefs offensive staff to

673
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: make those plays inside the ten because he's gotten all

674
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 1: the carries inside the ten yard line and five yard

675
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: lines so far the checko. He hasn't even been had

676
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: to carry inside the fifteen yard line yet this season.

677
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: So I think the Chiefs are just gonna lean a

678
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: little bit more on the run on this one. And

679
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 1: you know, especially after watching the Lions just carve up

680
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 1: the Ravens on the ground last week. So Kareem Hunts

681
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: he's around plus two ten. I like it anywhere over

682
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: plus two hundred for him. Yeah, two things on that game.

683
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 4: Number One, been screaming all offseason about this checko, like

684
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 4: red zone situation like this guy, he cannot trust him

685
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 4: in fantasy and if he scars, it's gonna have to

686
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 4: be from outside the red zone most likely, and he's

687
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 4: just not hitting those kind of runs. Number two, I

688
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 4: will say, kind of a long shot pick I got

689
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 4: refunded because he didn't actually play a snap last week,

690
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,959
Speaker 4: but Jalen Royals if he suits us and it's active,

691
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 4: Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hio, Xavier Worthy, Rashi, Rice, Kwie Edwards,

692
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 4: Dulaer all scored in their first game games, uh, you

693
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 4: know as rookies with the Chiefs, So technically this would

694
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 4: still be Royal's first game because he hasn't played a

695
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 4: snap yet. So that's another guy long shot, but we

696
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 4: don't we don't know what his role is going to

697
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 4: be if he's.

698
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 3: Still hurt or whatever.

699
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 4: But uh, I just thought i'd mentioned that one that

700
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be on that one again, uh this week,

701
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 4: and hopefully he doesn't have a special team's role so

702
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 4: if he doesn't play, uh, you just get you get

703
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 4: your runny backs.

704
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 3: So not a bad uh bet.

705
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 4: There Bears at the Las Vegas Raiders. On the Raiders side,

706
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Ashton genty at minus one forty. Uh,

707
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 4: just everything that's been going on with the Raiders kind

708
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 4: of screams genty is gonna get in the end zone. Uh.

709
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 4: You know, a couple of weeks ago, they were just

710
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 4: throwing downfield a little too much for Pete Carroll's liking,

711
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 4: and uh, you know, and he said he wanted to

712
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 4: get genty more snaps. Then this week they just fall

713
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 4: behind and they end up throwing like three more long

714
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 4: touchdowns to h Trey Tucker. So, uh, you know, shouts

715
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 4: to our guy Nick Giffen, who loves trade Tucker. But

716
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 4: if they don't throw these longer touch downs and it's

717
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 4: you know, kind of having to drive up and down

718
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 4: the field a little more, which you can do against

719
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:07,239
Speaker 4: the Bears, I think genty is is a pretty good

720
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 4: bet to get in the end zone in this spot.

721
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 4: And I think they'll start increasing his past game snaps

722
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 4: a little bit too.

723
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: I think that's what Carol was kind of alluding to.

724
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 4: We saw that a little bit, but they've been they've

725
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 4: been falling behind so much that we've been seeing the

726
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 4: backups more than we probably like for the Raiders. So

727
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 4: like them at home in this spot to rebound, and

728
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 4: for the Bears, it's a sort of tricky because it

729
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 4: looks like love Wind is still not practicing. So I'm

730
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 4: gonna go Luther Burden here at plus five point fifty.

731
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 4: He was a guy that got the flee flickers, so

732
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 4: pretty pretty kind of floky touchdown all things considered. But

733
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 4: we do know that Ben Johnson trying to get Burden

734
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 4: more involved. And I think, you know, this Bears team

735
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 4: one of the teams that they will play a lot

736
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 4: of one to one, you know, three wide receiver personnel,

737
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 4: even at the goal one. So Burden, you know, down

738
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 4: in his snaps around the rise, he can get in

739
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 4: there over as the kis when they're in close, and

740
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 4: he's one of those guys that you can just scheme

741
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 4: up kind of like an Andy Reid type touchdown for

742
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 4: those gadget guys. You usuld do it like Canarius, Tony

743
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 4: and all those guys. So I think Burden, you know,

744
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 4: still be in price like a true backup, but I

745
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 4: think he's actually gonna get you know, just as many

746
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 4: snaps as a lot of these other Bears players in close,

747
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,959
Speaker 4: especially because they're starting to swap out Swift a little

748
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 4: bit more in the red zone as well, So it's

749
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 4: really kind of a mix. It could go any which way.

750
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 4: So I think you want to get on Burden now.

751
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 4: And he could also get a deep target as well.

752
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 4: And we saw the Commanders give up a bunch of

753
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 4: long touchdowns last excuse me, We saw the Raiders give

754
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 4: up a bunch of long touchdoups to the commanders last week.

755
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 4: All right, before we continue, don't forget sign up for

756
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 4: Action Pro. You can get real time picklers from experts

757
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,320
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758
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 4: Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Kerner

759
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,719
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760
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761
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762
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763
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,200
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764
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 4: Network dot Com slash Pro and use promo code p

765
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 4: O D two zero to get twenty hours off one

766
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 4: year of Action Pro. All right, we got two Sunday

767
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 4: night games.

768
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 3: No, we got Sunday night. We've got two Monday night games.

769
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 4: We've been having fun with the parlay Express account in

770
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 4: the free award winning Action Network app. So, guys, let's

771
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 4: make a quick parlay of our top three favorites anytime

772
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 4: touchdown picks of the day for the Sunday after Noon slate.

773
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 4: I'll go with genty for me because I think he's

774
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 4: I think he's gotta get out in the end zone

775
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 4: sooner than later.

776
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 3: Here you going with Sean.

777
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 5: I'll go with McCaffrey two plus touchdowns at plus three twenty.

778
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 3: All right, And then Joe, I'm gonna cheat.

779
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be a pick I gave out on

780
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 1: the show, but I'm gonna take Devonte Adams just for

781
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 1: one touchdown though, at plus one twenty.

782
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 2: Five all right.

783
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 4: So if you're partaway gent one touchdown, McCaffrey two touchdowns,

784
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 4: and Adams one touchdowns about plus fifteen one hundred or

785
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 4: fifteen in the one.

786
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 3: For the parlay odds.

787
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 4: So yeah, genty, McCaffrey, Adams for our favorite Sunday afternoon parlay.

788
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 2: Again.

789
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 4: Check the Action Network's parlay Express account on the Action

790
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 4: app for more parways. We'll get into Sunday night football

791
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 4: Packers at the Cowboys. I'm gonna start it off, I'll

792
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 4: go Matthew Golden here, the rookie at plus two thirty.

793
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 4: And if we look at this Cowboys defense, they are

794
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 4: playing a lot of zone and they're not bwitching much,

795
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 4: so you would think that they would be more susceptible

796
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,919
Speaker 4: to the kind of underneath stuff. But we've seen guys

797
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 4: like Wandell Robinson just run straight through their defense. Luther

798
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 4: Burden run straight through their defense. John Dotson ran straight

799
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 4: through their defense, came up a little bit short of

800
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 4: a score, but caught a long bomb as well. So

801
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 4: I think this is a good spot for Golden, who's

802
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 4: just playing more and more snaps. So these Packers receivers

803
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 4: keep getting hurt, and he was in on most of

804
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 4: the red zone stuff. He's only packered to get multiple

805
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 4: red zone routes one of three along with Jacobs and

806
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 4: and Craft last week. So they're kind of they're given

807
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 4: Golden to work down in there in close, just along

808
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 4: with the rest of these guys, not just a deep threat.

809
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 4: So like him, Kerner, who you looking at for Packers Cowboys?

810
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Jalen Tolbert at four to one here.

811
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 5: You know he's gonna have to step up along with

812
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 5: Cavante Turpin in Ceedee Lamb's absence this week. And I

813
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 5: think you know, Tolbert's always been a solid red zone option.

814
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,399
Speaker 5: He had seven touchdowns last year, and he had two

815
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 5: end zone targets last week. After CD went down, Dak

816
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 5: of forth through that interception that was intended to Tolbert

817
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 5: and then later in the game Joe Milton and his

818
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 5: strong arm through it way over his head in the

819
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 5: end zone. So eventually you know he's gonna catch one

820
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:52,919
Speaker 5: the end zone. But now with with Dak out, that's

821
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 5: the time to take him, Jill, I know that you

822
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 5: hit an end game once CD went down. I thought

823
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 5: that was sharp taking Tolbert in game. There same logic here.

824
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 5: I think Tolbert with CD out is offering some value

825
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 5: here at four to one.

826
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think too when I was looking at it,

827
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,319
Speaker 1: it was probably more closer to like the seven to

828
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: one range. But even then, like just that was part

829
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: of the reasoning, is that when Lamb goes down or

830
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 1: games that Lamb did miss, that's what who's usually stepped up, right,

831
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 1: So uh yeah, I love that at four to one

832
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: or better, I'm just gonna go with Tucker Craft in

833
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: this spot. I think his injury was maybe a little

834
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 1: more exaggerated. But also playing against that Browns defense, they

835
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 1: don't allow pretty much anything. So I mean, what was

836
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 1: funny about that game is I knew a lot of

837
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: people were on Tucker Craft, and then we talked about

838
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:38,800
Speaker 1: who was going to be the the tight end three

839
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 1: that scores, and of course it's h Fitzpatrick or Fitzgerald like, yeah.

840
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 3: I couldn't remember what big, big p big.

841
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 2: Tank.

842
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, So it was just amazing that being said, I think, uh,

843
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: we're gonna get back to reality here and take Tucker Craft.

844
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 1: I think Tucker Craft will be the one that or

845
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,359
Speaker 1: for this Packers defense. And again, just if you only

846
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 1: use the first two games of sample size, you would

847
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 1: have thought that this would be like plus one fifties.

848
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it looks like that touchdown catch to got

849
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 4: out if Fitzpatrick because he's been limited with a groin

850
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 4: injury this week in practice, all right, par way, Matthew Golden,

851
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 4: jaymin Tober and Tucker Craft anytime touchdowns to get around

852
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 4: fifty to one odds there, So that would be that's fun.

853
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 3: Let's go to Monday nights.

854
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 4: You get the Jets going to Miami to face the Dolphins,

855
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 4: and I'm gonna rode with Devon h Chan in this

856
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 4: spot against the Jets. I think he's still the guy

857
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 4: that you know the fact that he's involved in the

858
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 4: passing game to the extent he is it kind of

859
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 4: he's kind of games grip proof a little bit. And

860
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 4: I know Ali Gordon got the got a goal on look,

861
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 4: so you know, like h Chan because I think you know.

862
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 3: His his odds should be even higher.

863
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 4: But you know, with Gordon getting that goal on look,

864
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 4: the Dolphins aren't gonna get a ton of go on

865
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 4: touchdowns those weeks with the way they play, and I think,

866
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 4: especially against the Jets, it's going to be more you know,

867
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 4: through the air or longer out. So give me a

868
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 4: chanmiche who can do both in this spot, Kerner, what

869
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 4: do you like?

870
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the rookie Arion Smith here at

871
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 5: fifteen to one. I was surprised to see his price

872
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 5: this high because you know, he was their fourth round

873
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 5: pick and you know they're gonna look to get him

874
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 5: involved sooner than later, and last week they did. He

875
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 5: was operating as the number two hour receiver with Josh

876
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 5: Reynolds out ran around eighty three percent of Tyron's dropbacks,

877
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 5: So you know there's a ton of upside if he's

878
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 5: getting that much playing time. He could also get you know,

879
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 5: a rush attempt. They like to get him schemed up,

880
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 5: you know that way as well. So he has way

881
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 5: too much upside to be priced as high. And you

882
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 5: know Josh Reynolds kind of he's easing back in. He

883
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 5: might play, he might sit out. But I think either way,

884
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 5: Arion Smith, that fifteen to one is offering value.

885
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like him. I was looking at that. I

886
00:40:59,080 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: saw him his round.

887
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 4: It's really ticked up, So I wouldn't I wouldn't be

888
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 4: surprised that continues with I mean these you don't need

889
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 4: to play Josh Rerounds and Tyer Johnson and know who

890
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 4: they And it was hard like all those guys should

891
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 4: be cut by week six and it's week four, so

892
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 4: we had a couple of weeks left, all right, you

893
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 4: know with you.

894
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go with Garret Wilson. Man like Garret

895
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 1: Wilson to me, I think it's nice and easy. We

896
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: don't have to I know, I know, I know, Well

897
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 1: not a total bood. That was actually, Garrett Wilson was

898
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 1: the final leg to hit in our sixty six to one.

899
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 1: So Garrett Wilson, I think is the guy that we

900
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: want to go back to here, especially because I was

901
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,320
Speaker 1: a little bit worried with to Rod Taylor at quarterback

902
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 1: whether or not he was gonna see or just not

903
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 1: even targets but quality targets. This is going to be

904
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 1: hitting stride kind of thing. And it worked out and

905
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: the Jets almost came back and almost went ran that

906
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 1: won that game, right, So I like Garrett Wilson to

907
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 1: round that out, and I think that should be a

908
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 1: way that we can keep it nice and even in

909
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 1: of Aaron Smith, it's them, we're all pretty happy, you know.

910
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: I mean, And the thing about Devon a Chan is

911
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: you do not have to worry at all about a

912
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: potential quarterback sneak vulture. That's one of the reasons why

913
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: I love a Chan in that offense.

914
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's it's it's the Gordon.

915
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 4: I would say he's the more the bigger threat. But yeah,

916
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 4: two is he would he would get hurt before he

917
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:20,479
Speaker 4: even tries to sneak or anything. But that this one's

918
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:24,320
Speaker 4: seventy eight to one thanks to the Arion Smith fifteen

919
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 4: to one in there.

920
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 3: So another another fun one.

921
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 4: We'll close it out with the second Monday night game

922
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 4: Bengals at the Broncos. Uh. And on this one, I

923
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 4: want to go with T Higgins for the Bengals. You know, Sean,

924
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:37,879
Speaker 4: I think we talked about on the flex. I think

925
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 4: he's just gonna be a little bit undervalue to the market,

926
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 4: you know, coming off the bad game, and you know,

927
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 4: the backup quarterback had a bad game, but it's still

928
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,240
Speaker 4: one of the better backup quarterbacks in terms of getting

929
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 4: the ball out to the receivers. And you know, this

930
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 4: could be a spot where Jamar Chase gets extra attention

931
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 4: or that you have to look away from because of

932
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 4: because of Sirtann and the coverage on the other side.

933
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 4: So I think T Higgins to be a trilling game.

934
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 4: Script could just be a certain issue. But either way,

935
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 4: I think he's a good bet to score here. So

936
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 4: I come at plus one ninety current where you're going.

937
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, with no offense looking shaky, I was looking

938
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 5: for Tanner Hudson. Odds don't say so damn it can't

939
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 5: go with him here, but definitely Cam Grandy.

940
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 3: It's Cam Grandy.

941
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 2: He's the rem Well that's the thing.

942
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 5: Just take a wheel, you know, one of the seven

943
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 5: tight ends and throw a dart at it. If fans out,

944
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 5: someone else is gonna score. But I'm gonna go with

945
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 5: the Broncos. Here with Troy Franklin at plus two forty five,

946
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 5: continue to operate. As you know, top two receiver in

947
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 5: this offense, had a ninety four percent routes run rate

948
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 5: last week. Put up a dud though, only two catches

949
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 5: for eight yards. But he could have had a better game.

950
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 5: You know, bow Nicks missed him on a wide open,

951
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 5: like fifteen yard look and then gave him a hospital

952
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,359
Speaker 5: ball near the goal line. We're not one, but two

953
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 5: guys crushed Franklin. You know, it's it's kind of weird

954
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 5: for them to be out of sync like that. They

955
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 5: you know, they played all the way back in college,

956
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 5: so they have good chemistry. So I think it's a

957
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 5: good BILO spot for Franklin, who had a really good

958
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 5: week two. You know he's he's leading the team in targets.

959
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 5: I think, so a good BILO spot for Franklin here

960
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 5: at plus two forty five.

961
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 4: I think Sean Payton's will want out of think it,

962
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 4: some of the plays he's drawn up, and it's just everything.

963
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 4: It's kind of just a little bit of a mess

964
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 4: in Denver right now. But yeah, I think I think

965
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 4: they kind of get back to it.

966
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:28,359
Speaker 3: Joe, where are you going?

967
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Marvin Mims. He's always my guy

968
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: that I go to in the Broncos offense. I mean,

969
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 1: I kind of thought about whether or not I was

970
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,240
Speaker 1: looking at bon Nix in this spot, and I was like, nah,

971
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go with Mims because because honestly, like

972
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: last week in that matchup, like in Week three, he

973
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 1: wasn't really needed to be used much. But also they

974
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 1: were kind of going away from it like a little bit.

975
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: So I think Mims, especially given the fact that the

976
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: Bengals their secondary has been having a little bit of trouble.

977
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 2: Uh, they're not.

978
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 1: Great against the deep ball, I think Mims could get

979
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 1: catch them off guard. Plus he's the punt returner as well,

980
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 1: so you know there could be chances as well that

981
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 1: he returns it there So, and I think just the

982
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 1: odds too, anything over three to one from Mims, That's

983
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 1: kind of where I'm at. And coming into the season,

984
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 1: I was very high on him, so I'm gonna continue

985
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 1: ride them with him here after he scored in Week two.

986
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, Janifer is one of those teams, you know, Kurner

987
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:20,439
Speaker 4: and I've talked about this before the season. They're gonna

988
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 4: be frustrating to project all year because they're one of

989
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 4: those teams that just purposely tries to break tendency like

990
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 4: every week. So the fact that you had Sutton and

991
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 4: I think it was Dobbin scored last week, like the

992
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 4: two kind of top most predictable guys, I think now's

993
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 4: a good time to go with.

994
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Franklin and Mims like the answer.

995
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 4: Some of the ancillary pieces that are still out out

996
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 4: there on the field a ton because that's that's generally

997
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 4: how it goes in Denver, which makes it frustrating, but

998
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 4: it can be very profitable. But Higgins, Franklin, Mims anytime touchdown,

999
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 4: parlay those three together and you get thirty nine to one.

1000
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 3: All right, fellows, good stuff that is going to do it.

1001
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 4: As I mentioned, will add these anytime touchdown partway through

1002
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,480
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1003
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,719
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1005
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:06,680
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1006
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Speaker 3: Sign up for Action Pros.

1007
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1009
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1012
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Speaker 3: That's Pod two zero.

1013
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 4: All right, that's gonna do it for our NFL Week

1014
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 4: four touchdown show here on the Action Network podcast presented

1015
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 4: by DraftKings. Thank you Deshaan Kerner and Joe Glant for

1016
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 4: joining me again. Check the parlay Express account, check the

1017
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 4: link in the podcast or video description if you want

1018
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Speaker 4: quick slips, or visit Action network dot com slash bet

1019
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Speaker 4: now if you want to bet those, or if you're

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1026
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe to the Action Network podcast. You can

1027
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 4: find Sean our next at the end Scarriage Maker, Jill

1028
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Speaker 4: at G Doug five thousand, I'm at Chris Raybond brat

1029
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Speaker 4: those same handles on the freeward Running Action Network cap

1030
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1031
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 3: Let's get this money