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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're throwing in so spec I'm sitting. It's a cash

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Speaker 1: to stop. We see most gambles when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to

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Speaker 1: pack and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and I am joined as always by the one,

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Speaker 2: the only, the great one, Brandon Anderson for some best

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Speaker 2: bets here for NFL Conference Championship week. Yeah. My goal,

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Speaker 2: Brandon is to always try to change up the intro

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Speaker 2: a little bit. I gotta get you off your off

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Speaker 2: your horse a little bit. First of all, Brandon, what's up? Man?

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Speaker 2: How are you talk to me?

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Speaker 1: Man? The great one? It's me and Wayne Gretzky. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be invited out to the inauguration next At this rate,

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Speaker 1: we got penultimate weekend of football right off the top.

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Speaker 1: One game lapped after that. Shouts to Matt Mitchell. On

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Speaker 1: the penultimate. We got coaching hires. I'm already starting to

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Speaker 1: think about football for next year. We got Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: MVP odds up. We got Super Bowl odds up for

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Speaker 1: next season twenty twenty six, which sounds like some made

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Speaker 1: up year in the future, but somehow next super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, we got fun game Sunday. Chiefs Bills, for

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Speaker 1: my money, is the game that I want in football, Like,

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Speaker 1: that's the one as a better as a prop guy,

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Speaker 1: just looking back in the last few seasons. To me,

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Speaker 1: like growing up in the nineties, Niners Cowboys was the

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Speaker 1: epitome of football. If you got Nanners Cowboys, which we

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Speaker 1: got it like every year off and again in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: that was the one. It feels like Chiefs Bills is

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Speaker 1: that game right now. So I'm just excited for us.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the fact that we knew we were gonna

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Speaker 2: get Ravens Bills into most likely after the Chiefs opened

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Speaker 2: up the weekend with the win, We're going to get

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs in the next round. It really felt like

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Speaker 2: the semi final final that everyone had kind of dreamed of,

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Speaker 2: and then we're gonna have to wait two weeks to

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Speaker 2: watch them play one of these NFC teams, which at

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Speaker 2: that point, I don't even know if it's gonna feel

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Speaker 2: like the Super Bowl, but it's gonna feel like some game.

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Speaker 2: So I think we're gonna talk about that. But I

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Speaker 2: do have some sort of gut feeling if Buffalo does

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Speaker 2: get through Kansas City, like I can't even imagine, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be weird saying this but getting up two weeks

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Speaker 2: later after beating both Baltimore and Kansas City, especially if

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Speaker 2: it's like Washington. But okay, we'll talk about that in

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Speaker 2: a few minutes before we get into the games and themselves,

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Speaker 2: which we've got best bets, We've got props, all sorts

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Speaker 2: of fun stuff. We're gonna go through a few of

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Speaker 2: these coaching hires, just a few notes from Brandon and

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Speaker 2: I on just how we think of the guy and

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Speaker 2: the fit, and we'll go quickly through these and even

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Speaker 2: some playoff leader bets and a few different topics before

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Speaker 2: we get into the game. So we'll start with Aaron

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Speaker 2: Glenn and the Jets. Brandon, I'll let you go first.

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Speaker 2: I have like a nugget or two, but you know, thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Here, Yeah, I think it's Aaron Glenn is fine. I

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Speaker 1: don't know that I have the strongest with Indian on

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Speaker 1: Aaron Glenn former Jets player. I don't necessarily always love

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Speaker 1: that because I wonder, did you really like look at

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Speaker 1: all the options, seem like they're really locked in on him.

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Speaker 1: They interviewed like thirty forty dudes for head coach. Like

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Speaker 1: every new tweet was another guy they're interviewing. He's the

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Speaker 1: only one they get a second interview too. That doesn't

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Speaker 1: sound like the best process to me. I thought he

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Speaker 1: was good defensive coordinator. I don't necessarily know that he

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Speaker 1: was great. I don't know that I would put him

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Speaker 1: among like the top five to seven guys like Mike McDonald.

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Speaker 1: This year, going to Seattle, I was like, oh, okay,

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Speaker 1: well that's gonna be a sick defense. I have to

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Speaker 1: immediately upgrade them and everything about them. Can they get

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Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator right? So that's two things. Number One,

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Speaker 1: I don't think Aaron Glenn is in that Mike McDonald's group.

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Speaker 1: Now I may be wrong. Defense is tough to judge.

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Speaker 1: We saw them fade pretty hard, but there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of injuries. I was never really convinced the lines were

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Speaker 1: this like elite top three defense, even with all the

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Speaker 1: guys earlier in the year. Number two, I want to

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Speaker 1: hire an offensive minded coach. Aaron Glenn's not that. So

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Speaker 1: it now comes down, dude, do you get the right

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator on this team and you get the quarterback?

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Speaker 1: And that's a problem because getting both of those guys

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Speaker 1: is easier said than done. If you get the really

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Speaker 1: good offensive coinator, they just leave for another coaching position

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Speaker 1: next year. Anyway, So I think Aaron Glenn seems very

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Speaker 1: like by everybody, seems like a good sort of fire

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Speaker 1: up the defense, everyone playing hard. That's like what the

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Speaker 1: Jets have been doing for all these years, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: we just fired the version of that. We know what

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Speaker 1: that was. It was pretty solid, but they fired him

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Speaker 1: for a reason. So I don't know, I'm not upset

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Speaker 1: about it, but it feels like they can have already

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Speaker 1: did this version and we saw the maxed out version

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Speaker 1: of it, and I don't know that. I just think

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Speaker 1: I'd rather hire a more offensive minded guy at this

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Speaker 1: point for the most part.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you basically took most of my notes here, which

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Speaker 2: was I wanted an offensive minded guy versus a defeat

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Speaker 2: defensive minded guy. I mean, granted, he got rid of

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Speaker 2: salad and the defense literally fell off the cliff, so

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Speaker 2: I get maybe trying to fix that, but without really

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Speaker 2: any offensive minded person at all on the roster, putting

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Speaker 2: Rogers aside. Like with no head coach, there no coordinator,

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Speaker 2: you know, nobody that I think I would point to

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Speaker 2: and say, Okay, that's the guy I wanted. An offensive

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Speaker 2: guy at the top of the snake. Glenn is not

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Speaker 2: that I will say. I mean, I don't exactly know

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Speaker 2: the Lions defense and what they were this year when

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Speaker 2: they ended a little bit differently and there was a

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Speaker 2: lot of injuries there and you know, you know, some

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Speaker 2: players had some really good seasons in that defense and

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Speaker 2: you lost Hutchinson, Like, it's kind of questionable what they were,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not exactly sure. I mean, the history here

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Speaker 2: is also my other thought. So here's the stat There

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Speaker 2: have been eight different Jets head coaches since two thousand.

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Speaker 2: None have been above five hundred ats with New York.

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Speaker 2: The last head coach to do was actually, I'll grow

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Speaker 2: in two thousand. We know about the playoffs drought. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the last time these guys want to playoff game, They'd

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Speaker 2: beat Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and consecutive games and

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Speaker 2: then the curse started, which is actually kind of funny.

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Speaker 2: So that is the thought process for me on Aaron

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Speaker 2: Glenn ready to move on? Yeah, all right, Ben Johnson Bears,

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Speaker 2: I'll let you start with this one. I mean, obviously

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Speaker 2: he chirps the Packers in the press conference, and you

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Speaker 2: say to yourself, well, I hope you know I help

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Speaker 2: eber Flus and Naggy didn't do that, because maybe that's

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Speaker 2: a bad omen. But what's your thought on you know,

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Speaker 2: inside the division, you know, sneaking out the back door

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Speaker 2: while you're getting ready, while you're getting ready to get

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Speaker 2: for the playoff game you leave for Chicago basically, So

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Speaker 2: what's your thought?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the Lion's at like five hundred yards

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Speaker 1: of offense. We're moving up and down the field in Washington.

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Speaker 1: So I love to do the blame game and be like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe these Detroit coaches would have more

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Speaker 1: focus on the game. Ah nah, they just played a

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Speaker 1: Washington team. The defense was hurt. We kind of knew

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Speaker 1: that's where that might be heading. Ben Johnson to me

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Speaker 1: is Ben Johnson plus assistance, which you'll get to a second,

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Speaker 1: that wins the coaching cycle that the Bears are the

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Speaker 1: off season champions. For me, Ben Johnson was my number

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Speaker 1: one offensive play caller for the season, and I've got like,

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Speaker 1: I have a whole roster matrix, quarterback, running back, receiver,

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Speaker 1: offensive line, all the way down. But I also have coach,

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator kind of based on play calling.

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Speaker 1: And the way that I have it set up is

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Speaker 1: everything is basically addedive. Are you good at this? Okay?

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Speaker 1: Add that on to the score, Add this on of

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Speaker 1: the score. Offensive defensive coordinator. I have as multiplicative. So

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Speaker 1: the better that you are, you're not just adding on

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Speaker 1: to the offense. You're making everything better. You're multiplying your quarterback.

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Speaker 1: You're making Jared Goff a better version of Jared Goff,

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Speaker 1: who makes the line better, who makes the receivers better.

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Speaker 1: Like everyone's like, ah, well he had Amara Saint Brown.

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Speaker 1: No nobody knew who Amanara sant Brown was before Ben

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Speaker 1: Johnson made him Amanara Saint Brown. Now he's very talented

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Speaker 1: and he gets credit for that Amarad does. But I

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Speaker 1: think Ben Johnson is an elite, elite play caller. Every

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Speaker 1: time you watch this dude in a game, we don't

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Speaker 1: watch this dude. Every time you watch his offense, there's

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Speaker 1: like two or three plays where you're just like, wait,

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Speaker 1: hold on rewind immediately, I need to see that play again.

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Speaker 1: This is something incredible, sometimes a little too incredible. We've

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Speaker 1: seen that a couple of times also, But you know,

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Speaker 1: you gotta take some risks. Scared money don't make money

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Speaker 1: in football either. So for me, I went into my

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Speaker 1: little roster matrix and said, Okay, leave the Beers roster

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Speaker 1: exactly as which won't be how this goes. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: add some pieces, but leave it exactly as as. And

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Speaker 1: what does Ben Johnson do? And I'm gonna add him

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Speaker 1: in as a play caller that immediately is going to

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Speaker 1: upgrade the offensive line and especially the quarterback like Kileb

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Speaker 1: Williams pre Ben Johnson and post Ben Johnson I think

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Speaker 1: will be a crazy comparison. But that alone adding in

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Speaker 1: Ben Johnson and then the other part adding in his

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Speaker 1: immediate hire Dennis Allen as the defensive coinator. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: I've been on this very podcast betting against Dennis Allen

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Speaker 1: like twenty five times the last three years as a

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Speaker 1: head coach. Dennis Allen's defensive coordinator is fa fantastic. I

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Speaker 1: just mentioned Aaron Glenn, not one of those top five

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Speaker 1: or seven guys. Dennis Allen one of those top five

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Speaker 1: or seven guys, Dennis Allen is they set it and

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Speaker 1: forget it. Ben Jonson saying, hey, look, I'm a new

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Speaker 1: head coach. I'm gonna call plays, I'm gonna figure out

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Speaker 1: this clock management and all the in game stuff. You

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Speaker 1: got the defense, I'm out. You do the thing, Dennis Allen.

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Speaker 1: I don't have time for that. You do your expertise.

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Speaker 1: Those two hires to me in my system. Upgrade Chicago

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Speaker 1: from dead last to my coaching ranks to number seven,

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Speaker 1: which is massive because it moves them from twenty fourth

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Speaker 1: on offense to thirteenth just the coaching change, and from

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Speaker 1: twenty first to sixteenth on defense. Overall, they jump from

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth overall to thirteenth in the NFL like they

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Speaker 1: jump into playoff range. Now, a different way of thinking

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Speaker 1: about it, the Bears turned from the Bears into maybe

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins or the Commanders. That's the sort of move

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Speaker 1: that this sort of coaching change happens. So you immediately

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Speaker 1: have my attention Chicago as worse. The first contender for

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Speaker 1: next year Detroit heading the wrong direction with the coaches gone.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota kind of an obvious regression candidate team green Bay

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Speaker 1: obviously the team they're talking smack to already. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to win some games now, Chicago. But man, as

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Speaker 1: a Vikings fan, not the news I was hoping for here.

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Speaker 1: Ben Johnson plus Dennis Allen elite coaching cycle higher. They

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Speaker 1: win the cycle for sure.

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Speaker 2: I mean their win total and odds and everything like that.

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Speaker 2: Are going to see such a bump from the market

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Speaker 2: because of this. I feel like the Chicago hype is

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Speaker 2: going to even be like larger than it was because, Okay,

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Speaker 2: we saw what he can do, Caleb, we saw some

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Speaker 2: of the issues he had. We assume this is one

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Speaker 2: of the answers to help fix those issues. So even

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Speaker 2: with the expectations they had last year and the way

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Speaker 2: we saw the rest of the division, which I mean, granted, yes,

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Speaker 2: some of the coaches kind of switch teams, but most

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Speaker 2: of the rosters there should be pretty much the same.

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Speaker 2: If Minnesota say upgrades upgrades a quarterback, I mean, that

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Speaker 2: division is gonna be absurd. The one note on Ben

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Speaker 2: Johnson I just thought of and it's just weird how

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Speaker 2: this happens. But this is more about just how we

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Speaker 2: think of these coaches and then how we look at

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Speaker 2: them once they get hired. I just thought he was

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Speaker 2: so funny when you actually look at him as the

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Speaker 2: head coach of the Bears and you see him having

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Speaker 2: the speech downstairs in front of everyone, and you say

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Speaker 2: to yourself, like, I thought of the same thing with

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Speaker 2: like Stichen and gannon As. I just look at these

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Speaker 2: guys and I'm just like, oh, you know, this is

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Speaker 2: what they actually are versus like this like genius person

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Speaker 2: who's just the coordinator next to the head coach. When

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Speaker 2: they actually become the head coach. You kind of look

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Speaker 2: at them and they're like, ah, this is just like

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Speaker 2: a normal, you know, kind of dude. But it's interesting

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Speaker 2: just like looking at them from like a Chicago point

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Speaker 2: of view. I mean, I believe a Chicago head coach

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Speaker 2: doesn't want a playoff game in their first season since

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Speaker 2: like nineteen fifty. And then you talk about Green Bay

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Speaker 2: and I know he meant mentioned that in the press conference,

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Speaker 2: but I don't think they've gone two to zero against

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Speaker 2: him since like two thousand and seven or two thousand

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Speaker 2: and eight, And they haven't gone one one ats versus

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Speaker 2: Green Bay in two straight seasons since two thousand and

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Speaker 2: seven two thousand and eight as well, So I mean

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Speaker 2: these are just different things. Just like Caleb broke a

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Speaker 2: bunch of records in his first season and the Bears

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Speaker 2: still didn't play well. I assume Ben Johnson's gonna make

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Speaker 2: them better. But again, the division really difficult. You had

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Speaker 2: mentioned Detroit's coordinators, and I think we just wanted to

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Speaker 2: touch quickly on the defensive and offensive side. So from

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Speaker 2: a defensive point of view, I thought Dennis Allen was

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Speaker 2: actually a great option here. Obviously he's off the board now.

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Speaker 2: I think Sala is something interesting, even though I think

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Speaker 2: he's probably destined for other places. From an internal point

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Speaker 2: of view, I thought the Shaye Townsend, who's their defensive

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Speaker 2: back coach passing game coordinator on the defensive side, would

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Speaker 2: be someone I thought was kind of interesting. First of all,

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Speaker 2: defensive what's your thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean a defensive line coach has also gone

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Speaker 1: now he's now a defensive coordinator elsewhere. Like this feels

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Speaker 1: very much to me, just big picture, this feels very ravensy,

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Speaker 1: where it's like, Okay, tremendous brain drain from one year

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Speaker 1: to the next, and you see this a lot. The

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Speaker 1: one team that has the bye week, that's the team

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Speaker 1: everyone's watching all year that loses doesn't just lose the game,

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Speaker 1: they lose all the coaches because now they're all free

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Speaker 1: to go finish all their interviews and get hired right

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Speaker 1: away rather than waiting to ak to the super Bowl

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Speaker 1: for all this stuff. So yeah, I don't necessarily know

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Speaker 1: who the Detroit name is. Again, I wasn't the highest

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Speaker 1: personally on Aaron Glenn, so I'm not going to necessarily

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Speaker 1: downgrade them super a lot there. We'll kind of wait

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Speaker 1: and see on that end. Ben Johnson, though, taking him

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Speaker 1: off of the offense, I kind of said, what does

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Speaker 1: he do for Chicago? If I do my same little

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Speaker 1: matrix thing he goes. The Lions go from my number

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Speaker 1: one offense from the season to number eight, So still good.

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Speaker 1: There's still plenty of talent there. The blocking is good,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of guys there. But first dates is

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Speaker 1: a pretty big drop off. Drops the Lions from my

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Speaker 1: top four tier overall fourth place down to tenth as

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Speaker 1: a team. So again I kind of said the Bears

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Speaker 1: turning into the Commanders or the Dolphins, the Lions turn

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Speaker 1: into the Bucks, and that's not a great drop off.

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Speaker 1: Like the Bucks, A fun team, A team that can

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Speaker 1: drop some points on you, but a team that could

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Speaker 1: maybe try to win a playoff game versus the team

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Speaker 1: that's the one overall seed. I do want to see too.

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Speaker 1: We love Dan Campbell, we love the biting, the kneecaps,

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Speaker 1: we love the aggression. How does the aggression work when

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Speaker 1: Ben Johnson's not the one calling the plays? Because we've

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Speaker 1: seen Detroit in games late this season look pretty good

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Speaker 1: calling some great fourth down plays, and like Minnesota in

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Speaker 1: the Week eighteen, that huge game, tried to match them

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Speaker 1: with their fourth down place. No, Ben Johnson didn't go

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Speaker 1: so well. Turns out you got to make the right

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Speaker 1: decision to go for it, but you got to have

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Speaker 1: the right play, and you got to have golf, making

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Speaker 1: the good plays not quite as valuable without Ben Johnson, etc.

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Speaker 1: So I think I'm very much in a wait and

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Speaker 1: see mode on Detroit. I would guess that as lines

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Speaker 1: start to come out on futures two lines, I will

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Speaker 1: be looking at very early Chicago win the division. What's

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Speaker 1: the number Detroit to miss the playoffs? What's the number.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm betting those, but these moves make

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Speaker 1: me check those odds. First thing, when they come out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, under win total for Detroit would be the first

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Speaker 2: look to see how I think I can get it

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Speaker 2: from an offensive point of view. The two names I

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Speaker 2: had Scotty Montgomery, which is their assistant head coach running

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Speaker 2: backs coach I thought was an interesting name. I'm an

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Speaker 2: Indiana guy, went to IU so Randall l of course

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Speaker 2: as someone I think that would be a fun name there.

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Speaker 2: And then outside the realm of Detroit, if you looked externally,

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Speaker 2: Ronald Curry, who's the Bills quarterback coach obviously working with Josh,

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Speaker 2: would be an interesting get. And then I put a

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Speaker 2: funny little emoji next to this one. But what about

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Speaker 2: Chip Kelly? Okay, I don't even want to talk about that,

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Speaker 2: but we can move on. Josh McDaniel's Patriots. I don't

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Speaker 2: think there's too much to say here. I kind of

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Speaker 2: saw this higher with Rabel and said to myself, Oh,

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Speaker 2: they're just getting the band back together. Well that works

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Speaker 2: sometimes and then other times the records kind of suck

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Speaker 2: when you get the band back together. Josh McDaniel's Patriots thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not a fan very much. What I thought about

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Speaker 1: the Mike Rabel thing with the Patriots. It's just like,

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Speaker 1: all right, move on. The Belichi era is over. Like

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Speaker 1: you had your run, you had your two decades of greatness.

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Speaker 1: Brady ain't coming through that door. Belichick ain't walking through

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Speaker 1: that door. Like Rabel and McDaniels we have seen not

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Speaker 1: be as good without certain things that they're not gonna

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Speaker 1: have on this team. I'm not excited to put McDaniels

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Speaker 1: with Drake May. McDaniels has DVOA on years where he's

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Speaker 1: not had Tom Braid. Here's the offensive DVA for McDaniels

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Speaker 1: when he's running the offense twenty twenty thirty two, dead last,

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Speaker 1: twenty three, one top ten season with mac Jones fifteen

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Speaker 1: and twenty seven. The average DVA is twenty first. That

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Speaker 1: is a near bottom ten offense. So this is not

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Speaker 1: just not a great offensive higher it's a bad one

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Speaker 1: like they will be. It will be a downgrade to

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Speaker 1: me from an average NFL offense. Adding McDaniels in, and

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Speaker 1: to me, this is just like, it's just disappointing. I

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Speaker 1: would have had the Patriots ranked pretty high. We talked

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Speaker 1: about on the coaching openings. Drake May, I'm really excited

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Speaker 1: about I have him as a possible top ten quarterback

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Speaker 1: because early as next year, I get a lot less

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Speaker 1: excited now that McDaniels and Rabel are there. I think

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Speaker 1: that they are floor raizers for the team, but I

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Speaker 1: think that they are a poor man's Mike Tomlin type

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Speaker 1: floor raiser where they can make this team somewhat competitive

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Speaker 1: and competent. But I do not see a lot of

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Speaker 1: ceiling raising here, so very disappointing.

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Speaker 2: Higher for Man, I felt like the offensive coordinator position

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Speaker 2: for New England with Drake May with Mike Rabel, knowing

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Speaker 2: what Verbel doesn't really do on the offensive side and

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Speaker 2: when he can do on the defensive side. This is

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Speaker 2: so disappointing because liking Drake May this much and then

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Speaker 2: mixing him with McDaniels is so frustrating and also confusing

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Speaker 2: in terms of trying to project him because we talked

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Speaker 2: about it all year on every podcast we've done, like

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Speaker 2: they lose the game, but Drake looks good. It was

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Speaker 2: said at least fifty five thousand times, and now you

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Speaker 2: mix in McDaniels, and I think it just gets confusing

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Speaker 2: because I don't like him in this offense. I don't

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Speaker 2: like him and much that he's done. And then anytime

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Speaker 2: he's gotten the rains on a team and been ahead,

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Speaker 2: he's been terrible. So okay, moving on. Trent Balkey gone

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Speaker 2: in Jacksonville, and you can take the reins here and

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Speaker 2: kind of go with it. He's only there. He was

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Speaker 2: there for four seasons, right in total, I believe I

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Speaker 2: forgets ahead of Jacksonville four seasons.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the number was, it was too many. Yeah, it

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Speaker 1: just it just I had in my notes weeks too

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Speaker 1: late and I crossed it off and put years too late.

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Speaker 1: But whatever it is, it was too late. You missed

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Speaker 1: the best coaching hires here. They had what I think

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Speaker 1: four guys come interview for the job and then back

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Speaker 1: out of it. There are thirty two head coaching jobs

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Speaker 1: for the NFL in the entire world, only like five

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Speaker 1: to seven of which are available each year. And you

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Speaker 1: guys like Liam Cohen who might never get another chance

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Speaker 1: to be a head coach, who's just like, nah, I'm good,

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Speaker 1: thanks anyways, Jacksonville, appreciate your interest. I'm out Like I

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Speaker 1: think Liam Combe is a great coach. I think Liam

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Speaker 1: Conan would have been a good hire. They're losing all

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Speaker 1: these opportunity and look, they finally got the point and

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Speaker 1: they're like, all right, we gotta get rid of this

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Speaker 1: bulky guy and start over. I don't know, it's too late.

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Speaker 1: This year is too late. Overall, I still don't hate

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Speaker 1: what's there. You still have what I think can still

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Speaker 1: be a potential franchise quarterback, and you have the stud

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Speaker 1: rookie receiver. You get those two to start with. If

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Speaker 1: you get the right hires here in a very bad division,

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Speaker 1: a very winnable division, this could still go well. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: we gotta get our jokes off at Bulky at this

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Speaker 1: point because it just was a disastrous process.

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Speaker 2: I honestly just say this is more on con the

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Speaker 2: owner than it is on anything. I mean, you firing

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Speaker 2: the GM after you couldn't get the coach. I mean

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Speaker 2: you just doesn't look like anyone who should be making

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Speaker 2: like is making positive football decisions in that building on

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Speaker 2: any level. So I think stripping it down, even with

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Speaker 2: the talented roster in a super winnable division. The division

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Speaker 2: is very, very winnable from all points of view, and

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Speaker 2: like you said, there's talent all over the place. Like

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Speaker 2: Thomas looks absolutely absurd. I mean, he's, you know, first

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Speaker 2: round looking fantasy type deal. But that also talks about

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Speaker 2: the fact that I mean on the field, I mean

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Speaker 2: he's catching touchdowns, he's explosive, and I think we don't

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Speaker 2: really know a lot about Lawrence there, but I mean

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Speaker 2: from what we've seen. I mean, think about it. Balky

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Speaker 2: was there for four years. They go ten and nine

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Speaker 2: and nine and eight in two of those years, granted

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Speaker 2: seven and twenty seven the other two years, but above

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Speaker 2: five hundred. So I mean you're you kind of have

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a mixture, and I think that's

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Speaker 2: the talent on the field. All right, let's move on here.

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Speaker 2: So they have markets up right now for you know,

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Speaker 2: all sorts of things for the games. The first thing

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Speaker 2: I think we wanted to talk about is the actual

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl matchup. A. Which matchup do you think is

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Speaker 2: better from a fan point of view? And B which

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Speaker 2: matchup we want is a better So I'll let you

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Speaker 2: go first and then I can give my quick spiel.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So, I think instinctively you think jayde and Daniels

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00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 1: should be in the game as a fan because Jane

430
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 1: Daniels is the young, exciting rookie stud I think as

431
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 1: a fan, I want the best game, the game that

432
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: I feel most uncertain about the outcome. And for me,

433
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: that's Bill's Eagles. That's the one where I'm like, man,

434
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: I'm not have to really dig in before I make

435
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 1: a call on that one. I'm not really sure which

436
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 1: direction I go on that one. I think the line

437
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 1: would be relatively close to even, and I just don't

438
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 1: know where I stand on especially with the Jalen Hurts injury.

439
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 1: To me, Bill's Eagles is the most exciting, best game possible.

440
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 1: As a better I would root for Chiefs Commanders because

441
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 1: the look ahead line up right now for Chiefs Commanders

442
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 1: is Chiefs Mins four and a half and I think

443
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 1: that is insane. Give me that all day. I make

444
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,880
Speaker 1: it closer to a touchdown for the Chiefs. So that's

445
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 1: the one I would want as it better because I

446
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 1: would know right now who I'm on. Mahomes against the rookie. Fine,

447
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,959
Speaker 1: that's gonna be the big story of and we'll talk about.

448
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 1: But compare to the rest of the rosters, the coaching staff,

449
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,719
Speaker 1: the defense, everything up and down. Jane Daniels is not

450
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: gonna play Patrick or I outplay Patrick Mahomes, and if

451
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,199
Speaker 1: he doesn't, we'll get everything else down the roster and

452
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 1: it's gonna be pretty easy. Who you should be picking

453
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 1: in that one so well as a better not that interesting,

454
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: but I know excited it be on Bill's Eagles. As

455
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 1: a better would be my last pick because I'm not

456
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: sure where I go it there, right, I'm gona have

457
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: to dig into it a little bit more. What do

458
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 1: you like here?

459
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 2: I mean the fan one is super simple. The highest total,

460
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 2: which is Buffalo Washington, has got to be what they're

461
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,360
Speaker 2: rooting for him. And if you want a fun indoor

462
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 2: game between two teams that can kind of run up

463
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 2: and down the field, the totals telling you that. I

464
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,640
Speaker 2: think from a fan point of view, does the AFC

465
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 2: even really matter? Like? I think both offer compelling stories.

466
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 2: Bigger fan base, better story either way, I think it's

467
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 2: a little interesting. The one stat I love here is

468
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: the last nineteen quarterbacks to lose their Super Bowl debut

469
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 2: debut have not made it back as a starting quarterback.

470
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 2: It's been like a trend. Jim Kelly was the last

471
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 2: after losing his Super Bowl debut, so Jalen Hurts can

472
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 2: end that drought here. But other than that, I think

473
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 2: Philly's kind of a boring story, like they've already won

474
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: Super Bowls. We've already seen this team. Granted Hurts hasn't

475
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: done it, but I just feel like the Washington story

476
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 2: is much better as a better I kind of want

477
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 2: Washington and Buffalo. I got some Washington futures and from Buffalo.

478
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,159
Speaker 2: I just think it's more of a better story. Like

479
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 2: I've seen the Kansas City story. I don't have really

480
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 2: any financial interest on the Kansas City Buffalo side, but

481
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 2: I think that Washington Buffalo game would be a lot

482
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 2: of fun and a lot of different. Next year we're

483
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: gonna do hypothetical lines, so there's lines out actually for

484
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl matchup, as we talked about, with like

485
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 2: fifty three and a half Buffalo Washington. But is there

486
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 2: any bet you like from the four matchups that we.

487
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 1: Have, Yeah, I think just the one I said, I

488
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 1: think just Chiefs Commanders. If we get that minus four

489
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 1: and a half, that's kind of no zone anyway, Like

490
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 1: a line's never gonna stay at minus four and a

491
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 1: half for a game, especially game this big, and it's

492
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 1: gonna move a direction, and it's got to move the

493
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 1: direction of the Chiefs because it's Patrick Mahomes, it's the

494
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and all the money coming in, So yeah,

495
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 1: I make that one around minus seven for the Chiefs.

496
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 1: So definitely a bet that I'm happy to get some

497
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 1: money in on now and have them hold. And I

498
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 1: think the Eagles are going to beat the Commanders in

499
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 1: our likelihood. We'll get to that in a bit with

500
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: the picks, but I'm happy to have them hold my

501
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: money and give it back to me if I'm wrong.

502
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 2: I'm mostly an under guy, so I almost like the

503
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 2: under and everyone except Casey Philly, which to me at

504
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: forty five and a half is a little light. I

505
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 2: think they would probably score a little more points I

506
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 2: projected in like the forty seven forty seven and a

507
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 2: half range, but Buffalo Washington under fifty three and a half,

508
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 2: Buffalo Philly under forty eight and a half, in Casey

509
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 2: Washington under forty nine and a half. To me, we're

510
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 2: all interesting looks. I think we always assume the total

511
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 2: is going to go up, especially like in the Super Bowl.

512
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 2: Everyone just wants the over. But I think with those

513
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 2: it's going to be probably an even market. I think

514
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 2: it'll say kind of consistent. You've seen the over unders

515
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 2: this week pretty consistent, like they haven't gone up a ton.

516
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 2: We'll see what happens on game day. Let's keep rolling here.

517
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 2: So super Bowl props right now, anytime touchdown, first touchdown,

518
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 2: all that stuff is up at multiple books. So I

519
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: kind of wanted to go one by one here see

520
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 2: if you had any value, and I'll kind of chime

521
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: in on any of those markets for the super Bowl.

522
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, so super Bowl MVP, I guess is the obvious

523
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: one starting out. We talked about that going into the playoffs.

524
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: I had five long shots that I bet. Four of

525
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 1: those are dead because the point of the bet was

526
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: to give me here's Stafford a little piece of the Rams. Well, yeah,

527
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: that was a pretty good looking ticket. They had a

528
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 1: drive to possibly be a home favorite in this game. Here,

529
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: I'm happy to have had that ticket. It didn't win.

530
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 1: I still have aj Brown to me the team that

531
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: if I want to bet a Super Bowl MVP long

532
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 1: shot right now, it's got to be Philly because if

533
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 1: it's the other teams, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jane

534
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 1: Daniels will be massive favorites to win MVP if their

535
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 1: team wins a super Bowl. And I know that creates

536
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 1: long shot quote value, but is it actually valuable if

537
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: the quarterback just wins at the end of the day anyway,

538
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: So it's hard to bet the quarterback. You'll get the

539
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 1: numbers they got to win MVP, like ninety percent of

540
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: all Super Bowl wins. That's hard to get to, even

541
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: though that's basically what the number is. So now it's

542
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,479
Speaker 1: hard to actually talk myself into say Travis Kelcey, who

543
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: I love, who I'm betting Travis Kelcey yet again this week.

544
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: Who has a big, you know, well known face and

545
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: has got Taylor Swift. You know, he's got the story.

546
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,360
Speaker 1: He might be a bigger star now from that perspective

547
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 1: than Mahomes is. But still, we've never had a tight

548
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 1: end Super Bowl MVP. He has to win it like

549
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 1: fourteen percent of all chiefs wins to get there. I

550
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 1: don't know everything Kelsey does. Mahomes is also done, and

551
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: Mahomes is gonna do other stuff too, and he's still

552
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. So I have a hard time meeting there.

553
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: I think if I want somebody, it's got to be

554
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: an Eagle. And even there, now that's complicated because the

555
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,199
Speaker 1: Hurts injury and where do we go with that and

556
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 1: what do we make of that can they pass football anymore?

557
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: Right now? I think probably AJ Brown would be my

558
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: best long shot still, just because he can always explode

559
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 1: in the right matchup when you know he's just peppering

560
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 1: the field. So maybe AJ. I do think I love

561
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 1: Super Bowl MVP. I will have a full article of

562
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 1: breaking the whole thing down in all the long shots.

563
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: It looks like a bit of a dud this year

564
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: because I think it's just gonna be one of the quarterbacks. Probably.

565
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the most volatile Super Bowl winner where

566
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 2: it wouldn't be the quarterback to me is Philly and

567
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily even know if I like them in

568
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 2: this game. I know you're on them. I have Washington tickets.

569
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: I just feel like Washington's a good matchup for them

570
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 2: in that game. Now understand, these bets are all action

571
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 2: as well at this point, so you know you're betting

572
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 2: it to bet it at this point. So manytime touchdowns

573
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 2: I kind of liked. If I like Washington, I'm gonna

574
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 2: pick some more Washington guys. But I think Earth's is fun.

575
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 2: Twelve to one touchdown, forty nine to one first touchdown.

576
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 2: I kind of like Casey in the other game, so

577
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 2: Mahomes nine to one and thirty nine to one touchdown

578
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 2: and first touchdown in the Super Bowl, and then I'm

579
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 2: a sucker for Noah Gray, so I was probably just

580
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 2: gonna look at first touchdown, which is like four to one.

581
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 2: Now he's twenty seven to one this week, so it's

582
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: actually not a terrible bet if you like case. In

583
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 2: terms of the odds, it's like a little close to

584
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 2: double and then MVP. Again, I think Philly does offer

585
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 2: the most in terms of hurts not winning it, Like

586
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 2: obviously Barkley is a large kind of chess piece there,

587
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 2: but like other than them, I do think there's like

588
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 2: a defensive option, like I see Philly winning the Super

589
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: Bowl a bunch of different ways, while I'm not sure

590
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 2: exactly like you said, Mahomes probably gets it and all

591
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 2: that type of stuff. So I think Kelsey forty to one,

592
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: Worthy fifty five to one are just interesting. Like Worthy's

593
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 2: been getting so many looks in that offense. He's easily

594
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 2: now the number one option with Kelsey, but number one

595
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 2: from a wide receiver point of view, and they'll just

596
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: do anything in their power to get him the ball

597
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 2: in any way. So fifty five is nice, especially if

598
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: they get there the super super long shot, and I'll

599
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 2: just give this right now. Now, I kind of like

600
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 2: Washington again, So if Washington gets there but Eckler it's

601
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: like seven hundred to one, it's an MVP. I think

602
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 2: there's a lot of weird ways they could try to

603
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: get someone who has lots of experience, and you've kind

604
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 2: of seen it in recent weeks when you know the

605
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 2: butt gets tight late in games, like they tend to

606
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: look at him from a receiving and rushing point of view,

607
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 2: so I do see some sort of sneaky big play

608
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: out of him if he gets there.

609
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: So those makes sense to me for touchdowns. For me,

610
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: this is not really my market, so I don't do

611
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: a ton of these. I went kind of shorter here

612
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 1: just to me. If you like the Chiefs Travis Kelsey

613
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown plus three fifty, it makes sense that's the

614
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 1: bet I'm gonna play any Chiefs playoff games, So I

615
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: don't mind the plus three fifty if I like the

616
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: Chiefs to win. Now. Anyways, even though any bet is

617
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: action Kelsey first touchdown seventeen to one, same thing, spoiler

618
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: will be on both of those when we get to

619
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: the best quest shortly, if you're on the bills Josh

620
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 1: Allen any time touchdown, same thing. I'll be on that

621
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: one as well today. Whoever you like, Alan or Kelsey.

622
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 1: I realize the odds aren't quite as long, and I'm

623
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: normally the long shot guy. I don't know the long

624
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: shot touchdowns as well, so that's not my market, but

625
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 1: yours make a lot of sense.

626
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 2: All Right, let's keep rolling here, playoff leader bets. So

627
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 2: at this point, obviously we've played two three games, So

628
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 2: what's the thought or what is the one two games? One?

629
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 2: Two games? What is your thought process with any of

630
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 2: these markets.

631
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a bit of a broken record here. I'm

632
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: just going back to those same names I just mentioned.

633
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: I like Kelsey for receiving touchdowns. I like Josh Allen

634
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 1: for rushing touchdowns. Allen's at three to one. Kelsey is

635
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: plus four twenty five for receiving touchdowns. You can bet

636
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: Josh Allen five rushing touchdowns. Are more is twelve to

637
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 1: one at FanDuel. I like that one. He's that he

638
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 1: had two last game. I like him to get in

639
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: there this game. Obviously, you only want to bet one

640
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: of those two. Kelsey or Allen whichever one you think

641
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,479
Speaker 1: is going to win the game. But I think it's

642
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 1: a good way to invest in either of those teams. Yeah,

643
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: none of the other ones really stuck out to me.

644
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: I tweeted out, there is passing touchdowns. I believe right

645
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: now Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford are tied for the leads.

646
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: So their odds are still listed because they could end

647
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: up leading. But for some reason their odds are listed

648
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: but not even what are we doing? They're not playing

649
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: anymore more touchdowns? Why are the odds not the same?

650
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 1: I don't know what's happening on those.

651
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a broken record here kind of too. I

652
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: think Kelsey all over the board, whether it's receiving touchdowns

653
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: and yards, I think are good bets at the moment.

654
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 2: The other ones again long shots. From Washington's point of view,

655
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: Ertz is one down. He's thirteen to one. I've seen

656
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 2: even high as fifteen to one, and rushing touchdowns kind

657
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,239
Speaker 2: of like Brian Robinson. I don't think he's gonna get

658
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 2: a ton of harries overall, but in the red zone,

659
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 2: like getting into the end zone, I think that's a

660
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 2: category he could. He's one back of Henry. I believe

661
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 2: I can double check that. But yeah, so at nine

662
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 2: to one, I even saw some ten to ones. I

663
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 2: thought Brian robbins. Yeah, Brian Robinson has two. Derek Henry

664
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 2: leads that rushing touchdown market with three. The other running

665
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 2: backs for two are Gibbs, who's out Barkley. That's a problem,

666
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: Josh Allen and Joe Mixon. So Alan Barkley are one

667
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 2: behind Henry, and so is Brian Robinson. So I thought

668
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: Brian Robinson at ten to one was an interesting bet.

669
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 2: That's all I got there. Keep rolling.

670
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if you want to runner the Saquon

671
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: being such a heavy favorite makes that market open if

672
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: you don't want Saquon. So yeah. Similarly, I'm gonna jump

673
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: right into our next category, which is kind of the

674
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: weekly specials. I only have to one to pick here.

675
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: I'm going for the Sean Kerner triple crown, so you

676
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: can bet the who leads this weekend in passing yards,

677
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: rushing yards, receiving yards. So again, I am betting not

678
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 1: on Saquon here because Saquon is like minus five hundred

679
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: two lead in rushing yards, as he should be. He's

680
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: going to rush for a lot of yards, but I'm

681
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 1: not betting that. So I have josh Allen for rushing yards.

682
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 1: I will get into that to bet josh An rushing yards,

683
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,719
Speaker 1: especially against the Chiefs in playoff games. I've got ajyr

684
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: Brown receiving yards. We'll talk about him. That's my favorite

685
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: play on that game. And I just mahomes chalk on

686
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: passing yards. That one is one hundred and forty to one,

687
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 1: So just a little sprinkle, none of the other weekly

688
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: it has caught my eye. Did you have anything here?

689
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,479
Speaker 2: Two small things? Aj and McLaurin both thirty plus receiving

690
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 2: yards each half. I thought was intriguing. I saw, you know,

691
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 2: I took a sneak peak at your plays and I've

692
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 2: been looking at it as well most of this week.

693
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 2: I think AJ has a shot to have a nice

694
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 2: day here when you know we've been talking about hurts

695
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 2: is passing yards what it feels like forever. But I

696
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 2: think AJ would be the target in this type of game.

697
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 2: So thirty plus twelve to one. And then for Casey

698
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 2: Buffalo touchdown and field goal both teams each half, which

699
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: I know is one of those weekly specials. It's fourteen

700
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 2: to one. I kind of feel like the Casey Buffalo

701
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 2: game is the better option. A little stingy on the

702
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 2: defensive side, A lot of us like the under there.

703
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 2: So getting those touchdown end field goal each team each

704
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: half at fourteen to one fell kind of interesting. And

705
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 2: then before we get into best bets here, we're going

706
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: to do one more. We got like just anytime touchdown Dart.

707
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 2: I was kind of looking in that like seven to

708
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 2: eight to one range to each of us, kind of

709
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 2: like something in either game. I'll let you go first

710
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 2: before I kind of transition us out.

711
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, so again not my best category here, but I

712
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: mentioned his name last week, samajp Ryan. We keep betting

713
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: Bills running backs receiving against the Bills, and I think

714
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: he's the Chief's best option. So eleven to one on

715
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: is probably one touch of the game if he gets it.

716
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: My actual answer is kind of cheating Travis Kelce. We

717
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 1: did this last week. First Chiefs touchdown INNA Chiefs win

718
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: is twelve to one, So that got me to the

719
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: long number here. And I do like that bet because

720
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 1: he's done that in five of the last eight Chiefs games,

721
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: so that would have been in my bets anyway, I'll sneak

722
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 1: that in as my dart atd here.

723
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're looking for the storyline, right, you bet

724
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 2: Kelsey first touchdown or last touchdown mixed with Casey by

725
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: one to six and the parlay is like, you know,

726
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 2: thirty one or something like that. That is a storybook

727
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 2: ending to the super Bowl. But my anytime touchdown dart

728
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 2: in the Washington Philly game, I looked at Crowder who's

729
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 2: like eight to one and McNichols is sues seventeen to

730
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 2: one as just two options in that Washington offense, and

731
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 2: then from Casey, I really kind of like Juju. He's

732
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 2: ten to one ish in the market, but he outsnapped

733
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 2: Hopkins in the wildcard round, and I feel like, I

734
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 2: believe Hardman has been announced not active, So I kind

735
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 2: of feel like Juju's the guy where he makes the

736
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 2: catch or catches the touchdown or does something and you're like, oh, yeah,

737
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 2: like that guy who's been here and done this and

738
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 2: kind of showed up and in one of those case guys.

739
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 2: So I think Juju is kind of sneaky in this game.

740
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 2: So that was my pick. Any thought that before we

741
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 2: keep rolling.

742
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just gonna mention one other name. I

743
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: didn't get the number, but I think it's maybe like

744
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 1: seven to one. We'll call it the Jill Galant special.

745
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 1: I have not had his blessing on this, but if

746
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:58,800
Speaker 1: you want to bet Dawson Knox to score a touchdown,

747
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: I think that is the got a blessing of the

748
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: pick every single week on him. I was actually looking

749
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: hard at Dalton Kincaid props and it looks like Buffalo

750
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 1: is really kind of lowering his snap count. He just

751
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: can'tot block at all, and they want blockers. I think

752
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 1: they're a running script here. So if Dawson Knox is

753
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 1: on the field for blocking a little bit more rather

754
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 1: than Kincaid, I think that could be a fun kind

755
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: of I think I saw a seven to one on

756
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: him when I was checking out Kincaid props, So that

757
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: will shout to Jill on that one. Hopefully it's Jill's

758
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 1: pick if it hits. I'll take the loss if it misses.

759
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 2: If a Jill's pick. If it hits, and we have

760
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: to take first touchdown as well, which just thirty five

761
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 2: to one go Dawson Knox. There you go, all right,

762
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 2: So it is time now to get to some of

763
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 2: these bets best bets for the conference championships. If you

764
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 2: want to tell some of these bets, we have quick

765
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: slip links in the podcast and video description for you.

766
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 2: Just click those and a bet slip will open up

767
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: in your sports book gap so you can tell the

768
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 2: bets super super easy. So let's start with the games.

769
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 2: This is your best Death Washington, the Commander's Commanders in

770
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:13,479
Speaker 2: the NFC Championship. Unbelievable Commanders at the Eagles. Eagles six

771
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 2: point favorite. Total is about forty seven and a half.

772
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: Let's just start with the game here. I have a

773
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: bunch of notes and thoughts, but I want you to

774
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 2: go first on both of these. So start with the

775
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 2: game and then we'll go from there.

776
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, so before I mega pick, just kind of setting up,

777
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 1: like what am I looking for here? The first thing

778
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 1: has to be Jalen Hurts because that makes this game

779
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: very tricky to cap because we just don't know and

780
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 1: won't know, frankly until we watch the first quarter what

781
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts are we getting. I do think we're getting

782
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts. He's gonna play. But kind of looking at

783
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: the Twitter doctors and the folks out there that I

784
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 1: trust as best I can to understand the injury stuff.

785
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: Here's what I think we're gonna get from Jalen Hurts.

786
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: I think he plays certainly. I think he can pass

787
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 1: pretty well. I think he'll be able to run straight

788
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: line pretty well. Where he's gonna maybe be banged up

789
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: is cutting, moving, escaping the pocket and moving around a

790
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: little bit. I think that leans in a decent direction

791
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 1: for Philly because I think you can drop and pass.

792
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 1: He's gonna have open receiver in this game. I think

793
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 1: that they probably go a little more run heavy here,

794
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: which is frankly what they should be doing anyway. It's

795
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: the thing that Philadelphia does well, and it's why Saquan's

796
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,879
Speaker 1: line is like a thousand yards for this Sunday, because

797
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 1: he's gonna run all game long. So I loved this

798
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 1: spot before the Hurts injury. I have this somewhere around

799
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 1: Eagles minus eight, totally opposite side of the key number.

800
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 1: But it's a tough one because the Hurts injury. So

801
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 1: why did I like the spot early? Philadelphia defense I

802
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: think has already shown it can handle washing the offense.

803
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 1: So if you look at the games they play this season,

804
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 1: they dominated seven out of eight quarters in the season,

805
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 1: first game twenty six to ten on Thursday Night until

806
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: last thirty seconds garbatime touchdown, basically dominated by Philly. Then

807
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: second game twenty seven to fourteen, Philly into the fourth

808
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 1: quarter even though they didn't have Jalen Hurts for almost

809
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 1: that entire stretch, and then Washington got hot late and

810
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 1: won one quarter really handily and won one of the

811
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 1: games with it. But they also turn it over five times,

812
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,240
Speaker 1: and you can say, oh, well, what'll win for Washington

813
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 1: despite the five turners. Okay, well, Philly still forced five

814
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: turnovers also, so you can kind of do that both ways.

815
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 1: If you look at how the scheduling goes. Both these

816
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,399
Speaker 1: teams are pretty soft schedules this year. So I think

817
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 1: that's something that's going to matter a lot when we

818
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 1: get to the next matchup in the Super Bowl, because

819
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 1: the other side is gonna be a lot more battle tested.

820
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: But the Eagles are seven to two against playoff teams

821
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 1: Washington three and four. And if you look at the

822
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 1: defense for Washington, which we know isn't good anyway, when

823
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 1: they played a top sixteen offense by DVA, so just

824
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 1: top half of the league, they allowed twenty eight points

825
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 1: a game. Nine games twenty nine and a half, the

826
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 1: two games against the Eagles twenty four and more, all

827
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 1: but two their bottom ten against their run. We know

828
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 1: that's what the Eagles want to do. Saquan had over

829
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 1: one hundred yards in the first quarter last game. I

830
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: love aj Brown in this matchup as well, and I

831
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: just think the script sets up very good for the

832
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 1: Eagles if they are the Eagles. If you look at

833
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 1: I looked at every book, I want to bet Eagles

834
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,439
Speaker 1: to win through three quarters because here's why. Game one

835
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 1: that they played, Eagles were up big. After three quarters,

836
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 1: Washington had one hundred and forty nine yards and ten points.

837
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 1: They got some garbage stuff late. They came through the

838
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: back door a little bit. Game two, the Commanders have

839
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 1: two hundred and seven yards through three quarters, only fourteen points.

840
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 1: Then they scored twenty two in the fourth quarter and

841
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: didn't just come through the back door. They won the game.

842
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: But in the first three quarters, really the first seven

843
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: quarters against the Eagles, Washington had twenty four points in

844
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: seven quarters. So I think Vic Fangio against a rookie

845
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: quarterback I know, has been so good. But in this

846
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,280
Speaker 1: environment on the road, you have to like Fengio there,

847
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 1: so that's kind of the setup for me. I'm obviously

848
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,919
Speaker 1: leaning fill his direction. I know you're leaning more Washington's direction.

849
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 1: What are you looking for in the long.

850
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: I mean yeah, I mean in terms of the game itself,

851
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: I kind of do like it's getting up to six

852
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 2: and a half at a few places, so honestly just

853
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 2: waiting it out. I have a Washington futures ticket, so

854
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 2: I'm just throwing at that out the window, like I'm

855
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 2: just kind of looking at this game from you know,

856
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 2: just handicapping the matchup. I am going to wait. I

857
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,320
Speaker 2: assume Philly Money is going to continue rolling in. But

858
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 2: I think there's some good props in this game that

859
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 2: can be said more than I think both of these

860
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 2: lines in both games are relatively right. Like maybe I

861
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: would want Washington at like four and a half or

862
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 2: five if I was projecting it out. So I do

863
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: think the six is a little high, which is why

864
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 2: I like it. But I think Goddard props are good.

865
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 2: I had him at thirty five and a half early

866
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 2: in the week. I know Stucky's on his I believe

867
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 2: three and a half receptions. I think it's just kind

868
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: of similar to the Schultz matchup against Kansas City. I

869
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 2: think he's gonna be good in this one. That's why

870
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 2: I like Arts as well. So I think there's some

871
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 2: matchups there for tight ends that I think are interesting.

872
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 2: And Aj Brown fifty seven and a half was a

873
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 2: lot early in the week now of just sixty and

874
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 2: a half. I just think people think this is a

875
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,720
Speaker 2: good matchup for him on the outside against Washington's defense,

876
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 2: and I think flipping it Aj good game this week.

877
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 2: I think if they make the super Bowl, I'm going

878
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 2: to look to kind of DeVante, which is why I

879
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:18,959
Speaker 2: was considering his super Bowl odds for MVP and things

880
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: like that now, But I think he'd have a better

881
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,240
Speaker 2: matchup there, So in terms of just like the prop

882
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 2: market that I think is interesting. I also when headycapping

883
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 2: this game, I kept thinking to myself, Washington goes forward

884
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 2: a lot on weird situations. Jake Elliott's having a difficulty

885
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 2: making field goals, so I feel like keen numbers may

886
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 2: be a little odd in this one, like we might

887
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 2: not fall on exactly seven, Like things might happen in

888
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 2: this game to kind of throw that off a little bit,

889
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 2: which is why I kind of want to wait and

890
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 2: get some of those numbers later in the week, like

891
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 2: the six and a half, and you know, hopefully it

892
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 2: gets up to seven. For what I'm looking for from

893
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,759
Speaker 2: just a stat point of view, I think the fact

894
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 2: that the Commanders haven't played a home game is like

895
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 2: almost a month and a half at this point. I

896
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 2: believe this is like their fourth at fourth or fifth

897
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 2: consecutive road game and looking it up, eighth team since

898
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 2: two thousand, enter a playoff game on a fourth game

899
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 2: or later over a road trip owen seven straight up

900
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 2: those teams. So it's just very, very difficult to go

901
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 2: through what they've gone through. And I think a lot

902
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,919
Speaker 2: of it is adrenaline. You've got a rookie quarterback who's

903
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 2: taking a lot of pressure and running it around a lot.

904
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 2: I think that has to do with it. So the

905
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 2: one more stat before I give it back to you

906
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 2: and we can go to the next game, or you

907
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: can keep going on what you're thinking here. Eagles blowing

908
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 2: leads just not something. I think it's a discussion we've

909
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 2: had in the past that just hasn't happened. And I've

910
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 2: said this stat on previous shows, but I think it

911
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: holds for this one, which is a little worrisome on

912
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 2: my side if I like Washington, but under Siriani, Philly

913
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 2: sixteen and oh straight up as a home favorite when

914
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,720
Speaker 2: they get a lead to seven plus points when facing

915
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 2: a team above five hundred, I think there's something like

916
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 2: twenty and two or something like that overall, but really

917
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: good opponent get a lead home favorite, they usually crew

918
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 2: and a lot of that has to do with Saquon,

919
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 2: But to me, I think it's what you're looking for

920
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 2: in this game. Get early lead, lead through three quarters

921
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 2: and kind of sail from there.

922
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:12,359
Speaker 1: So yeah, so I am on Eagles in this game,

923
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 1: but I'll just say I'm light on Eagles here. I'd

924
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 1: rather play props. We'll get to the two props I

925
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: like in a second. But I do think that I

926
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,239
Speaker 1: like Philadelphia a little less now than I thought it

927
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: would a week ago. As I dug into this more.

928
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 1: One thing that I looked at today that I expected

929
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: to go the other way, I wondered, Okay, what about

930
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 1: the team that upsets the one seed in the division round.

931
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: So you upset the team off the bye week, you

932
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 1: get the huge win. It's got to be a huge

933
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,399
Speaker 1: adrenaline letdown after that right, like that team has got

934
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:41,240
Speaker 1: to be toasted the week after. That's what I thought.

935
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 1: So I look back in our bet labs since two

936
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 1: thousand and three, we have thirteen times where the one

937
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: seed lost last round divisional round. What happens after that?

938
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: The team like the Commanders that the upsetting team six

939
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 1: and seven straight up in the next game, where I

940
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 1: have to assume you're the underdog again, five of the

941
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 1: six winners went on to win the Super Bowl. So

942
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 1: sometimes when you're hot, you're hot and you just keep

943
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 1: on going. I don't love that for Philly. Here's another one.

944
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 1: We mentioned the stat on Sunday Night recap favorites and

945
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 1: conference championship division rematches. That's this right now, four to

946
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: oh straight up, but by six point three points a game. Well,

947
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:18,919
Speaker 1: the line is six six and a half, so that's

948
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 1: not a lot of advantage there. They're three and one

949
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 1: ats the one misses only by half a point, so

950
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 1: again that helps Philadelphia, But these are close games. I

951
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 1: think that this is gonna end up very close to

952
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,919
Speaker 1: where we're at here. Jane Daniels. Of course, the six

953
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game, none of

954
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 1: them I reached the Super Bowl, so you can do

955
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: some of those numbers, I think on both sides. The

956
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 1: other one with Washington's offense here where ultimately I'm trusting

957
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: Philadelphia's defense I think more than anything else. As I

958
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 1: picked the Eagles, Washington offense did not really attested a

959
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 1: lot this year by top defenses. They're one in four

960
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 1: this season straight up when they face the top twelve defense,

961
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,879
Speaker 1: and they averaged just under three hundred yards a game.

962
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 1: They averaged almost four hundred yards a game and all

963
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 1: their other games. So granted, that's what's supposed to happen,

964
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 1: that's why you're a top defense. But if you look

965
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 1: just kind of again the through the three quarters part,

966
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,399
Speaker 1: Washington was fourteen points or less in all but one

967
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 1: of those games through three quarters, then kind of found

968
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: some stuff late. So maybe that sets up for the

969
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 1: Eagles not to be the right pick, and the back

970
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 1: door is open this line. I probably wouldn't take it

971
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 1: really past the six I think, frankly, given everything I've

972
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:31,760
Speaker 1: looked at, this is crazy because I'm picking the Eagles

973
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 1: minus six year light. But I think Washington money line

974
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: might actually have the best value of any of the

975
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,839
Speaker 1: kind of standard picks here just because, like you said,

976
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 1: similar to last week, they're volatile. If they can be

977
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: in the mix, division closes the gap a little bit.

978
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 1: All those fourth down tries closes the gap. It does.

979
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: I don't think the Eagles absolutely dominate and role this team.

980
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: That's what I thought I would think a week ago.

981
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 1: But given the Hurts injury, and given some of the

982
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 1: stuff I looked at about the teams getting the big

983
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 1: upset and moving on, Washington probably is live here. That

984
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 1: makes them dangerous. So I'm gonna play one Washington prop.

985
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 1: I like Terry McLaurin to find the end zone. Again.

986
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:15,240
Speaker 1: It's plus four one. Eagles defense has shut down running

987
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 1: backs this year. I think it's gotta be all passing.

988
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:19,959
Speaker 1: So it's gotta be Jane Daniels maybe's passing, it's gonna

989
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: be to Terry McLaurin. Eagles have been top ten by

990
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 1: d or bottom ten by DVA against wide receiver ons

991
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 1: this season. Now, look, McLaurin had one game against Eagles

992
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: where he had one catch for ten yards, and they

993
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: got a lot of hype on Quenon Mitchell, who's banged up,

994
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 1: probably plays in this one, but we'll see how that goes.

995
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 1: But if you look at just kind of what I play,

996
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 1: true wide receiver one judgment call. But if I looked

997
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 1: at the Eagles schedule, when did you face a go

998
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 1: to wide receiver one? Fourteen times? They did that. Seven

999
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 1: of those guys half of them got a touchdown. So

1000
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 1: I think that this line should be closer to plus

1001
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 1: one hundred because McLaurin last eight games has been a

1002
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:59,280
Speaker 1: touchdown machine. He has nine touchdowns in the last eight games,

1003
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 1: at least one and seven out of the eight. So

1004
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 1: regression of the meme, I don't know that regression of

1005
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 1: that happen overnight. I think he's just gonna keep on scoring.

1006
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 1: I'm not sure Washington scores a ton, but he, to

1007
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 1: me is the guy that I think does score if

1008
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:16,240
Speaker 1: they get somebody. So McLaurin anytime touchdown plus one point forty.

1009
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 1: We got the quick slip for that one. I'm on

1010
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: AJ Brown too, that's my favorite angle here. But before

1011
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 1: I get to a J. Brown, any thoughts on McLaurin here.

1012
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 2: I think it's the right call because I think at

1013
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 2: this point it's a little difficult to try to differentiate

1014
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 2: between the dynamic Browns and the Almadi is achiases and

1015
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 2: like they have, they've gotten more options even with like

1016
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 2: Crowder as we've gone on, as we brought in the

1017
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: Dunami Brown into the offense. So I just think picking

1018
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 2: the number one uh in this spot is probably the

1019
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: safest bet. I think the other odds have kind of

1020
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 2: been slashed a little bit, and this one to me,

1021
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 2: you're I think you're right. I think it should be

1022
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 2: a little shorter.

1023
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so too. I immediately as I looked

1024
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,839
Speaker 1: at this one, I thought, Okay, I'm on both wide

1025
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: receiver one. So that's I'm McLaurin to play. But my

1026
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 1: favorite way to attack this game, despite what we've watched

1027
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: in the postseason so far, is get your nose out

1028
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: of the book and best of AJ Brown receiving escalators.

1029
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:11,839
Speaker 1: So here's the case. We'll get to a few bets

1030
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 1: on playing in AJ Brown. Washington also bottom ten DVA

1031
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 1: against wide receiver one. Even after they traded for Latimore,

1032
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: it's still been pretty ugly. Again, fourteen games for them

1033
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 1: against what I call a true wide receiver one. Here

1034
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 1: are some of the games that they've allowed this year.

1035
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,800
Speaker 1: Malik Neighbors ten catches, one hundred and twenty seven yards

1036
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 1: on eighteen targets. That is a lot of targets. Jamar

1037
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 1: Chase six FO one hundred and eighteen and two scores

1038
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 1: ALMANAA Saint Brown last week eight catches one hundred and

1039
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 1: thirty seven yards. AJ Brown guess who fifteen targets his

1040
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 1: season high eight catches ninety seven yards. So if you

1041
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 1: look at those fourteen wide rezero ones, they averaged seven

1042
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: catches on ten targets against the Commanders for ninety yards

1043
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 1: score a touchdown. In nine out of fourteen games, every

1044
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 1: single one of them got at least six targets. Half

1045
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:01,320
Speaker 1: of them had at least ten targets. So, for whatever reason,

1046
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 1: whether it's just the defense or the way things are

1047
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 1: getting played, teams are peppering their top target. Over half

1048
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 1: of the guys had at least seven catches, All but

1049
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 1: one had at least five catch, All but one had

1050
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 1: at least fifty nine yards, over half at ninety yards.

1051
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 1: I think the big reason here is the style of

1052
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:20,760
Speaker 1: play that Washington is the top seven and man coverage

1053
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 1: high seventy team left in the playoffs. Their top seven

1054
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:27,360
Speaker 1: single high well AJ Brown number one PFF grade against

1055
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 1: man coverage number two yards per route run against single

1056
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:34,360
Speaker 1: high so tim to unleash are inter excellence. Aj Brown

1057
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 1: overs fifteen targets last time for him against Washington. That

1058
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 1: was as high on the season. And don't forget that

1059
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 1: was the game when Hurts was out. So a little

1060
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:45,240
Speaker 1: bit scriptproof here. If Hurts is a little bit limited,

1061
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: if we get some Picket or Tanner McKee or whatever else,

1062
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 1: I think they lean on him even more. So I

1063
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 1: look at ag Brown. One of my numbers for him,

1064
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 1: I'm putting in at like eight to twelve targets, six

1065
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 1: to eight catches seventy to one hundred and fifteen yards.

1066
00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: That's kind of my range for him. I think minimum

1067
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 1: five catches sixty yards. So I looked at the receptions

1068
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:06,320
Speaker 1: first over four and a half. That's the line about Evanods.

1069
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,319
Speaker 1: I don't mind that. That looks pretty good to me.

1070
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 1: He's over in ten to fifteen. But if he gets

1071
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,720
Speaker 1: over that for five catches, I'd rather just play the yards.

1072
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna play the line you mentioned over sixty

1073
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 1: and a half yards minus one ten. If he gets

1074
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: those five catches, he's five catches a season. He's gone

1075
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 1: ten for ten with sixty five yards in those games,

1076
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 1: so I'd rather just play that one anyway, because of

1077
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 1: course I could get like two catches and one of

1078
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:31,840
Speaker 1: them is a long one. With the way Aja Brown plays,

1079
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: we hit that one, so that's the standard play. Ninety

1080
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 1: plus yards. I mentioned true receiver ones have gone over

1081
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:40,959
Speaker 1: that half of the time against the Washington so ninety

1082
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 1: plus Radio Brown is three to one. He's at eighty

1083
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 1: nine yards or more seven out of fifteen games, almost

1084
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 1: half of his games this season, so more boom or bust,

1085
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,360
Speaker 1: and he has busted real hard the first two games.

1086
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:54,920
Speaker 1: But this is a different matchup, so I like the

1087
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:56,919
Speaker 1: yards there. You can get both of those Asia Brown

1088
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 1: yards plays in the quick slip, and then there's a

1089
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 1: couple further escalators on him receptions again not playing that.

1090
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,240
Speaker 1: I'd rather have the yards. But eight receptions is plus

1091
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 1: eight to fifty, so just a touch there. Washington's allowed

1092
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:12,439
Speaker 1: that six times to wide receiver one if you want

1093
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 1: the touchdown. I do think plus one sixty is too long.

1094
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:17,480
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily love a lot of points in this game,

1095
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 1: and we got the push push and all that, so

1096
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay away from the touchdown. But the numbers

1097
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 1: check out there as well. I think if you like AJ,

1098
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 1: I'd rather do the futures on him because I like

1099
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 1: the Eagles to win. I like AG to have a

1100
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 1: big game. I like the matchup next week also or

1101
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: in the super Bowl for him. So you can bet

1102
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 1: two hundred yards or more in the playoffs at plus

1103
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 1: four fifty. Two hundred and fifty yards are more is

1104
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 1: plus thirteen hundred now only I was fourteen yards and

1105
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,839
Speaker 1: two games, so I'm basically starting from scratch. But if

1106
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: we're right that we get ninety here, then we're halfway

1107
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 1: to that first hit and get another big game of

1108
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:49,760
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, and it kind of sets up nicely

1109
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:53,840
Speaker 1: for us. So main bets again AJ Brown over sixty

1110
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards ninety plus as well, and

1111
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 1: then you can check out some of those escalators. But

1112
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 1: I do think this is finally the game for him

1113
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: to have a big rue in the playoffs.

1114
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, you had mentioned it against number one wide receivers Washington,

1115
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:10,920
Speaker 2: eight point one pass attempts to number ones almost seventy

1116
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:13,920
Speaker 2: five receiving yards, and then you look at what AJ's

1117
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:16,479
Speaker 2: done against Washington, and he has eight targets in four

1118
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 2: straight meetings against them, so obviously he is part of

1119
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 2: the game plan. So I like that. Look all right,

1120
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:28,439
Speaker 2: Buffalo at Kansas City. So the line as we're doing

1121
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 2: this is still sitting at one and a half for

1122
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,280
Speaker 2: Kansas City. It actually feels like it's kind of making

1123
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 2: its way to two in some places because it's minus

1124
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 2: one and a half minus one fifteen and I've seen

1125
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 2: even one, sixteens and seventeen, so something to watch out

1126
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 2: for there. The total is also forty seven and a

1127
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 2: half in this game. It came down a little bit.

1128
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 2: I saw some forty eights early in the week, but

1129
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:52,800
Speaker 2: both games sitting at forty seven and a half. So again,

1130
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 2: I'll kind of let you set it all up here.

1131
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 2: But Buffalo Kansas City for the fourth time in the playoffs,

1132
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 2: I believe. So what do you got here?

1133
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 1: Man? I love this game. So I'm on the Chiefs here.

1134
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 1: We had Chiefs on the hot read. I'm going to

1135
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 1: reiterate the pick on the Chiefs, but I have a

1136
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:11,880
Speaker 1: lot of angles on this game. So start with just

1137
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:15,280
Speaker 1: the Chiefs angle. Mahomes versus Allen to me, the clear

1138
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:18,319
Speaker 1: top two quarterbacks in football for me, in a tier

1139
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: of their own, and I think if we're being honest,

1140
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 1: Josh Allen's outplayed Patrick Mahomes pretty clearly this year. I think,

1141
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 1: if we're also being honest, these are not the best

1142
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 1: versions of either of these teams that we've gotten into

1143
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 1: this matchup here. Chiefs defense has been up and down

1144
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 1: this season. Neither team has been that explosive offensively, with

1145
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:38,560
Speaker 1: their receivers aren't as strong. Bill's defense has been up

1146
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 1: and down and kind of trending downward. But I think

1147
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 1: if I look at the defenses, that to me is

1148
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:45,960
Speaker 1: where I make the case here for Kansas City Chiefs.

1149
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 1: Before that week eighteen, Snoozer Chiefs had been top five

1150
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 1: offense and defense. The last four weeks they finally got

1151
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 1: back groove defensively, they got Jalen Warren back now as well.

1152
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 1: The pass defense is really good. The run defense, I

1153
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 1: do think Buffalo can run on them a little bit.

1154
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 1: If I'm wrong on this game, I think that will

1155
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: probably be a big reason why. But on the other side,

1156
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 1: Bill's defense, to me, is what I think is the

1157
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 1: weakest link on the field. They tailed off to fringe

1158
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 1: top ten run and passed last six weeks. We saw

1159
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 1: in the playoff game. So far we saw Denver move

1160
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,919
Speaker 1: the ball with some success. We saw Baltimore last week

1161
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 1: do anything that want in the second half and tell

1162
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 1: the guys just dropped the ball. Otherwise Buffalo didn't really

1163
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 1: stop them there. I think Kansas City can actually run

1164
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 1: on them a little bit. Bills are a little bit

1165
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:32,720
Speaker 1: weak up the middle. We saw that playout against Baltimore.

1166
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:36,760
Speaker 1: And most importantly, Buffalo by design is not good defending

1167
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 1: short passes and not good defending middle of the field.

1168
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,440
Speaker 1: And unknowingly to me and football fans everywhere, that's Patrick

1169
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:46,360
Speaker 1: Mahomes football. Now. He is the second most short passes

1170
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 1: in the league. Chiefs are the number three success rate

1171
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 1: offense between the hashes from sis. The Bill's defense ranks

1172
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 1: thirty first there. So all that stuff right over the

1173
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:59,399
Speaker 1: middle of the field, all those quick, easy completions, that

1174
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 1: to me is one of the Chiefs run game. I

1175
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:04,280
Speaker 1: think that they are going to keep the chains moving

1176
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 1: that like you're gonna hear a lot of if you

1177
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:10,240
Speaker 1: like Buffalo, run the ball, keep Mahomes off the field.

1178
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 1: I think actually the Chiefs might be kind of the

1179
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:16,239
Speaker 1: underdog here and they're gonna pass over the middle five

1180
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:18,760
Speaker 1: yard passes all game and keep Josh Allen off the field.

1181
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 1: I think, actually that's kind of the direction that we

1182
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 1: might be headed here. I just overall like the Chiefs better.

1183
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:26,840
Speaker 1: I like their receivers a little bit better. I like

1184
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 1: they're blocking, but I certainly like their defense better. They're

1185
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 1: special teams, way more coaching, way more. Bills also have

1186
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 1: been awesome at home all season, so I think playing

1187
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:38,000
Speaker 1: on the road here is a real loss for them.

1188
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 1: So Chiefs minus one and a half. That is a picker,

1189
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 1: and get that on the quick slip. I've got better

1190
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 1: ways I like to play this one. But conference championship

1191
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 1: one seed is twenty and five as favorites straight up

1192
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 1: since two thousand and three, perfect eight to zero when

1193
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 1: they're eleven percent win percent rate or better like the

1194
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:57,360
Speaker 1: Chiefs are. And then the stat we always know Patrick

1195
00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:00,880
Speaker 1: Mahomes three point favorite or anything less than that, including

1196
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,799
Speaker 1: as an underdog twenty seven nine and one ats for

1197
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 1: his career seventy five percent including from your article seven

1198
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 1: and zero perfect straight up and ats in the playoffs

1199
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 1: Holmes versus Allen four and four. Holmes are the sal

1200
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 1: in the playoffs three and zero. The Chiefs are inavitable.

1201
00:57:17,440 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 1: Chiefs mist one and a half. We'll get to other angles.

1202
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 1: I like, and it's I got a lot coming. But

1203
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: where do you land on Chiefs Bills?

1204
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I mean, I think Kansas City's

1205
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 2: a more complete team while the other side is Josh

1206
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:35,120
Speaker 2: Allen dependent. I think Josh Allen can be a superhero,

1207
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 2: and I think there's ways to play him being a superhero.

1208
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 2: But I think Casey is just more well rounded. I

1209
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 2: think Casey will win the time of possession. I think

1210
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 2: they'll run the ball. I think Buffalo's defense when you

1211
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 2: said that they're the weakest link on the field, I

1212
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 2: couldn't agree more. I really think turnovers is something that

1213
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,120
Speaker 2: I mean, we say that in every playoff game. We

1214
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 2: say that in most games anyway, but especially in this one.

1215
00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 2: So Buffalo won straight games, not losing the turnover battle.

1216
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 2: Kansas City eight straight games without a turnover. So that

1217
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 2: and that Kansas City streak longest in the Super Bowl

1218
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 2: era for any team. Last game without a turn was

1219
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 2: last game with a turnover for Kansas City against Buffalo.

1220
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: So honestly, in this situation, I think turnovers, especially early turnovers,

1221
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 2: will completely turn the tables here. I think the turnovers

1222
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 2: now The thing about Josh Allen this year, which I

1223
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 2: think has completely changed how he plays quarterback is I

1224
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 2: believe he has the lowest turnover worthy rate of any quarterback.

1225
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 2: Now that's fumbles, that's interceptions. I mean, he has just

1226
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 2: really made it a mission of his to control the ball,

1227
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 2: hold the ball, and he's running more than ever. I mean,

1228
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,520
Speaker 2: I just think he's kind of said at this point,

1229
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 2: which Lamar might get to at some point in his career,

1230
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 2: like if I don't do it myself and I don't,

1231
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 2: you know, make the play myself, find the right guy,

1232
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 2: we're just not going to win these games, even if

1233
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 2: there's thirteen seconds left. So I think at this point

1234
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 2: in his career entering this game and what we've seen

1235
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 2: this season, he just isn't gonna allow it to happen.

1236
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 2: But if it does happen, which I kind of think

1237
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: it will in this game, because I think Kansas City

1238
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:18,400
Speaker 2: is going to give him schemes. I think they're gonna

1239
00:59:18,440 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 2: blitz him at certain times. I think they're gonna pressure him.

1240
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:23,160
Speaker 2: I think it's they're gonna make it a little more difficult.

1241
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 2: I think the turnover is gonna be a key in

1242
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 2: this one. So and the stats that I pulled up here,

1243
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:31,680
Speaker 2: So pressure stats last five games versus the Bills. Now,

1244
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 2: this is Patrick Mahomes six touchdowns, zero picks in a

1245
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:40,160
Speaker 2: clean pocket, five touchdowns, five interceptions under pressure. He's also

1246
00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 2: four touchdowns and no picks in play action and the

1247
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 2: screen game. So when he is in a clean pocket

1248
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:48,959
Speaker 2: or using play action in the screen game last five

1249
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 2: games versus the Bills, he has ten touchdowns and no interceptions.

1250
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:55,320
Speaker 2: So I think if Buffalo isn't able to get in

1251
00:59:55,400 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 2: his face make him do things that make him feel uncomfortable,

1252
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be very difficult and the City

1253
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 2: should probably be a two or three point favor in

1254
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,120
Speaker 2: this one. So just from a value point of view,

1255
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:06,000
Speaker 2: I think you're right.

1256
01:00:06,880 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was surprised my model actually has the Chiefs

1257
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 1: as above the key number. I have like four or

1258
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 1: five points, which is a little crazy. I can't get

1259
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:17,080
Speaker 1: there to match my model just with the Mahomes Allen matchup.

1260
01:00:17,360 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 1: But here are some other plays I like to some

1261
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:21,760
Speaker 1: other ways. I like to bet the Chiefs in this game. Now,

1262
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 1: I had an article up from early in the week

1263
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:26,960
Speaker 1: just bet Super Bowl futures for Chiefs. It's not that

1264
01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:29,680
Speaker 1: sexy or exciting because it's yeah, okay, it's the Chiefs,

1265
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:32,320
Speaker 1: we know, but plus two forty I think is a

1266
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:34,560
Speaker 1: bad number for them. You can check out the article there.

1267
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:37,640
Speaker 1: I think with this particular game, you pretty much know

1268
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 1: it's going to go back and forth. In fact, the

1269
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 1: Bills have played eight times against Patrick Mahomes. They've led

1270
01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 1: at some point in all eight games so far. In fact,

1271
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 1: the Chiefs led in seven of those games at some point,

1272
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 1: so both teams have led the game in seven out

1273
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:55,160
Speaker 1: of eight matchups. You can bet on the Chiefs to

1274
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:58,880
Speaker 1: win from behind at plus one ninety five. I love that.

1275
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 1: That is my favorite way too bet the Chiefs in

1276
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 1: this game, just as the game alone, because I think

1277
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 1: we're gonna go back and forth here, and I think

1278
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 1: that's basically just getting a much much better price on

1279
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:11,160
Speaker 1: a money line pick of the Chiefs in a game

1280
01:01:11,200 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 1: that they're probably gonna trail, and they have some scores

1281
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:16,439
Speaker 1: back and forth on. Frankly, if you like Buffalo, plus

1282
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,880
Speaker 1: two fifteen for that same bet, I think is fine. Also, heck,

1283
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 1: you could play both of them at about minus two hundred.

1284
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:24,760
Speaker 1: That's hit seven out of eight matchups. I don't mind that.

1285
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: I do think because of the back and forth one

1286
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: bet I always love to play in this game. Both

1287
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:32,440
Speaker 1: teams to score in the fourth quarter, both teams to

1288
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 1: score in the fourth quarter, all but one of eight

1289
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:37,600
Speaker 1: matchups here, so seven out of eight eighty eight percent

1290
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:40,280
Speaker 1: hit rate. They're gonna pay the juice minus two hundred.

1291
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 1: But look, you know, if I'm recommending a minus two

1292
01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:44,760
Speaker 1: hundred juice bet, you know it's a pretty good bet

1293
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:47,120
Speaker 1: to play. So I like that on both teams to

1294
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:50,320
Speaker 1: score in the fourth quarter. And then this year when

1295
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 1: they played, we had a nine point game, but it

1296
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:54,640
Speaker 1: was a two point game with two minutes left, and

1297
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 1: then Josh Allen had that what I thought should have

1298
01:01:56,600 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 1: been the MVP run into the end zone. They busted

1299
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 1: the play. But I like the under seven point close

1300
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:06,080
Speaker 1: game play on this one. Before this year, the last

1301
01:02:06,080 --> 01:02:09,680
Speaker 1: four games six points in overtime, four points, three points,

1302
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:12,800
Speaker 1: and three points, so four straight games under a touchdown.

1303
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:15,920
Speaker 1: So you can probably build this one yourself with the

1304
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 1: same game parlay bills plus six and a half, Chiefs

1305
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:21,360
Speaker 1: plus six and a half. So neither team to win

1306
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 1: by seven or more, either team to win by six

1307
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 1: or last basically plus one eighteen. That has been another

1308
01:02:27,520 --> 01:02:30,760
Speaker 1: go to play for me on this particular game where

1309
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 1: we just keep getting classics and both these quarterbacks are

1310
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 1: too good to get buried and they're gonna keep scoring late.

1311
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 1: So I think those are fun ways to attack the game.

1312
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 1: I've got some props as well. But what do you

1313
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 1: think about those game attacks?

1314
01:02:44,640 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Chiefs super Bowl price to me is the

1315
01:02:47,360 --> 01:02:50,040
Speaker 2: one that stands out the most because of I mean,

1316
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 2: they're going to be favored over Philly, and if it's Washington,

1317
01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 2: I think that line's gonna get to five or six

1318
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:59,680
Speaker 2: would be my guess, just based off of the two weeks.

1319
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 2: So I feel like the two forty price was something

1320
01:03:03,080 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 2: that I had been talking to a few people earlier,

1321
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 2: trying to come up a different place for certain things,

1322
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 2: and to me, that one stood out if we were

1323
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:11,760
Speaker 2: trying to make any Super Bowl play. Obviously, if you

1324
01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 2: like Washington, probably should have done that around or two ago.

1325
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:16,800
Speaker 2: But I think it's like seven to one or so.

1326
01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:19,520
Speaker 2: But that super Bowl price for Casey stands out. And

1327
01:03:19,560 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 2: then I said it earlier when I was joking about

1328
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 2: the narrative play with Kelsey, like last touchdown, first touchdown.

1329
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:28,800
Speaker 2: Casey by one to six to me stands out a lot.

1330
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:30,480
Speaker 2: I mean there's lots of ways for that to hit,

1331
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:33,360
Speaker 2: and that extends the money line as well, so we

1332
01:03:33,400 --> 01:03:34,360
Speaker 2: are on the same page there.

1333
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Casey by one to six is effectively

1334
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 1: that same bet, just removing the Buffalo side. So I

1335
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:43,160
Speaker 1: think for me, I'm off Casey ways covered the other way,

1336
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 1: but I certainly like that Anglo well as well. If

1337
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:48,400
Speaker 1: you just want to bet the Chiefs, my favorite prop

1338
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 1: here is one that I go to on almost every

1339
01:03:51,600 --> 01:03:54,800
Speaker 1: Bills playoff game, and I think probably on every Bills

1340
01:03:54,840 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 1: Chiefs game. Give me the Josh Allen rushing escalator. So

1341
01:03:57,920 --> 01:04:00,320
Speaker 1: if you've listened to me in the past, aready had

1342
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 1: this one marked down? Hopefully already bet it because the

1343
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 1: line is started to move up a little bit consistently.

1344
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 1: Josh Allen has his best games as a runner in

1345
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 1: the biggest games. And that is not just like a

1346
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 1: made up thing that his stats are higher, he has

1347
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 1: more attempts, he has more yards when he plays above

1348
01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 1: five hundred teams, when he plays in the playoffs. That

1349
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:21,160
Speaker 1: is a Bill strategy. They're saving him for the biggest games.

1350
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:24,280
Speaker 1: You can't just run fifteen times every game. You're going

1351
01:04:24,360 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 1: to run into the dust that way. So that's a

1352
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 1: stat that we've seen time and time again against the Chiefs.

1353
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:32,800
Speaker 1: Eight games, ten point three carries a game, fifty six

1354
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 1: yards rushing. In fact, all of those eight games, his

1355
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:39,160
Speaker 1: three best rushing all came in the three playoff games,

1356
01:04:39,200 --> 01:04:42,200
Speaker 1: average seventy six yards a game in those three sixty

1357
01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:45,320
Speaker 1: eight plus all three of them. Now, this season was

1358
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 1: one of his lower rushing yard seasons, only six to

1359
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 1: half carries a game, but in the playoffs he's up

1360
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 1: to nine carries a game already, so we've seen that

1361
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:55,040
Speaker 1: go up. Chiefs are top five most rushes and most

1362
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:56,640
Speaker 1: rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.

1363
01:04:57,000 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 2: We saw CJ.

1364
01:04:57,840 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 1: Stroud find some success scrambling last week, so I think

1365
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:03,720
Speaker 1: we get some Allen designed runs and some scrambles as well.

1366
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 1: I think we get eight to twelve rushes at least.

1367
01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 1: I can't bet attempts this time. We played that last

1368
01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:11,400
Speaker 1: time and hit it for an escalator. The line's nine

1369
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 1: and a half, but the books are telling us he's

1370
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:16,360
Speaker 1: gonna run it ten times, so if he does, I

1371
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 1: think we should get something like forty to seventy yards

1372
01:05:18,800 --> 01:05:20,840
Speaker 1: at least, so I'm gonna play basically both of those.

1373
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:23,800
Speaker 1: The standard line is over forty seven and a half yards,

1374
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:26,720
Speaker 1: I'll play that one, and then seventy plus yards is

1375
01:05:26,760 --> 01:05:30,240
Speaker 1: plus three twenty. Again, if you want to fade saquon

1376
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:33,120
Speaker 1: most rushing yards on the weekend, sixteen to one could

1377
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:34,960
Speaker 1: be a fun way to bet on Josh Allen. Just

1378
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:36,919
Speaker 1: have a big game that way, and then of course

1379
01:05:36,960 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 1: I gotta have the touchdown, because at Josh Allen's runing,

1380
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 1: he's probably gonna have a touchdown when he play has

1381
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,920
Speaker 1: at least eight rushing attempts. He's done that sixteen times

1382
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 1: since the start of last season. He has a touchdown

1383
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 1: in fourteen of those sixteen games, so if he's out

1384
01:05:50,560 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 1: there running eight times or more, he's pretty much always

1385
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:55,640
Speaker 1: getting to the end zone. Twenty two touchdowns in those games,

1386
01:05:55,680 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 1: so we're still getting it at even off. Its plus

1387
01:05:57,800 --> 01:06:01,080
Speaker 1: one hundred for a Josh anytime touchdown, taking that one

1388
01:06:01,120 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 1: all day. Multiple touchdowns in seven of those sixteen games

1389
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 1: with at least eight rushing attempts, including two of four

1390
01:06:07,520 --> 01:06:09,760
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, so that's like close to fifty to

1391
01:06:09,800 --> 01:06:13,000
Speaker 1: fifty two touchdowns is plus seven hundred, So you know,

1392
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 1: I got to play that one. That one just hit

1393
01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:18,040
Speaker 1: last week as well. Yolo bets three touchdowns is forty

1394
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:21,040
Speaker 1: five to one. Five rushing touchdowns in the playoffs is

1395
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:23,440
Speaker 1: twelve to one. If you think Buffalo wins here, you

1396
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:25,320
Speaker 1: have to love that bet because he's got two already.

1397
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:26,920
Speaker 1: He probably gets one or two here as well, could

1398
01:06:26,960 --> 01:06:29,840
Speaker 1: get all three and hit it. Josh Allen. All the

1399
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: rushing over forty seven and a half yards seventy plus

1400
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 1: plus three twenty as well and anytime touchdown plus one hundred,

1401
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 1: two touchdowns plus seven hundred. All that is in your

1402
01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:43,440
Speaker 1: quick slip, Josh Allen rushing, it's an auto play for

1403
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:45,080
Speaker 1: me every single time in this matchup.

1404
01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:50,320
Speaker 2: Yeah. The one note I'll say there, last week against Baltimore,

1405
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 2: he had six red zone rush attempts. That is a lot,

1406
01:06:56,080 --> 01:07:00,000
Speaker 2: even considering all circumstances. Yeah, so his last game against

1407
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:02,640
Speaker 2: Kansas City, he actually didn't have a rush red zone attempt,

1408
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 2: But before that it's three three two three games before,

1409
01:07:07,080 --> 01:07:10,280
Speaker 2: so I do have to feel like they're saving him

1410
01:07:10,280 --> 01:07:13,080
Speaker 2: for this moment. And I think you know, I was

1411
01:07:13,080 --> 01:07:16,360
Speaker 2: trying to compare him to Cook, and Cook had three

1412
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:19,600
Speaker 2: rush red zone attempts in that last Kansas City game,

1413
01:07:19,920 --> 01:07:22,520
Speaker 2: But that was just a different circumstance. I have to

1414
01:07:22,560 --> 01:07:26,120
Speaker 2: believe after he got six last week against Baltimore, you're

1415
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:28,920
Speaker 2: going to see something kind of similar. So that's my

1416
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 2: feeling on the Josh Allen stuff. But keep rolling along.

1417
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:33,160
Speaker 2: I know you got a bunch here.

1418
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:36,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, Josh Allen two, We've seen late two seasons in

1419
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:38,840
Speaker 1: a row where his rushing touchdowns go up where it's like,

1420
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:40,920
Speaker 1: you know what, let me just do this myself. Guys,

1421
01:07:41,160 --> 01:07:43,240
Speaker 1: it's cook early in the year, it's Allan late in

1422
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:45,800
Speaker 1: the year. So I think that fades into that trend

1423
01:07:45,800 --> 01:07:48,120
Speaker 1: a little bit as well. So we always played Josh

1424
01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:51,080
Speaker 1: Allen rushing in this game. We always played Travis Kelce.

1425
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:53,880
Speaker 1: We had the Travis Kelcey legacy escalator last week. So

1426
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:56,880
Speaker 1: let's run it back Kelsey against the Bells Kelsey in

1427
01:07:56,920 --> 01:07:58,760
Speaker 1: the playoffs. You know, I got to play that. So

1428
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 1: nineteen playoff games now with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce has

1429
01:08:03,160 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 1: nineteen touchdowns in nineteen games. Absurd absurd numbers. At least

1430
01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:10,480
Speaker 1: one score in fourteen out of nineteen. That's a seventy

1431
01:08:10,520 --> 01:08:13,400
Speaker 1: four percent hit rate for anytime touchdown. He had one

1432
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 1: last week. He almost had a second. If he could

1433
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 1: just run like he was not one hundred years old anymore,

1434
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:21,320
Speaker 1: he would have the second one. Also, those numbers would

1435
01:08:21,360 --> 01:08:24,080
Speaker 1: say anytime touchdown more like minus three hundred, we get

1436
01:08:24,120 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 1: plus one thirty five. Still, that's a criminal number. It's

1437
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:29,080
Speaker 1: not high as it was last week, but I'm definitely

1438
01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:32,200
Speaker 1: betting that plus one thirty five. Then we mentioned already

1439
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:35,519
Speaker 1: first Chiefs touchdown. That's a thing that did not hit

1440
01:08:35,600 --> 01:08:37,960
Speaker 1: last week, but almost did. He got the second touchdown.

1441
01:08:38,280 --> 01:08:40,000
Speaker 1: Some books, you still get your money back and you

1442
01:08:40,040 --> 01:08:42,880
Speaker 1: bet it that way. First Chiefs touchdown plus four to

1443
01:08:42,880 --> 01:08:46,479
Speaker 1: twenty five, first chief touchdown, any win plus twelve hundred.

1444
01:08:46,760 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 1: So same bets as last week, just running it back

1445
01:08:48,960 --> 01:08:51,839
Speaker 1: again on those I also like a lot we mentioned

1446
01:08:52,120 --> 01:08:54,840
Speaker 1: as far as playoff leaders, Kelsey has an option there.

1447
01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 1: Actually think maybe the better way is you can bet

1448
01:08:57,520 --> 01:09:00,160
Speaker 1: at FanDuel three touchdowns in the playoffs at plus US

1449
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:02,600
Speaker 1: three ninety three or more. I think that's actually a

1450
01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 1: better way to betty Kelsey escalator because you're betting two

1451
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:07,920
Speaker 1: touchdowns in this game is around plus four hundred, so

1452
01:09:08,000 --> 01:09:10,320
Speaker 1: that's the same price he already has one. I can

1453
01:09:10,360 --> 01:09:12,280
Speaker 1: either get two in this game or one now and

1454
01:09:12,320 --> 01:09:14,559
Speaker 1: one in the super Bowl. He's plus four to twenty

1455
01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:17,080
Speaker 1: five to get the most receiving touchdowns. Are probably gonna

1456
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:18,800
Speaker 1: need at least three to do that anyways, or else

1457
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:21,760
Speaker 1: I'm splitting and losing my money anyhow, So I think

1458
01:09:21,760 --> 01:09:24,400
Speaker 1: that's a good bet on the touchdowns. And then as

1459
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:27,639
Speaker 1: far as the yardage, looking back again, last five playoffs

1460
01:09:27,720 --> 01:09:30,679
Speaker 1: counting this one now, one hundred and twenty catches thirteen

1461
01:09:30,760 --> 01:09:33,759
Speaker 1: hundred eighty eight yards. The average for Kelsey over that stretch,

1462
01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:36,280
Speaker 1: these numbers are just crazy. Eight and a half catches

1463
01:09:36,560 --> 01:09:39,760
Speaker 1: ninety nine yards a game over like a season of

1464
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:44,240
Speaker 1: playoff games. Seventy one plus yards in fourteen straight playoff

1465
01:09:44,280 --> 01:09:47,679
Speaker 1: games for a tight end is absurd. In eight games

1466
01:09:47,720 --> 01:09:50,240
Speaker 1: with Mahomes against the Bills, six and a half catches

1467
01:09:50,280 --> 01:09:53,400
Speaker 1: seventy six yards, but in the playoffs alone, eight point

1468
01:09:53,400 --> 01:09:57,599
Speaker 1: seven catches ninety six yards. Basically just his usual playoff output.

1469
01:09:57,680 --> 01:10:00,599
Speaker 1: That's what he does. Now. Look, they played this season.

1470
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:04,080
Speaker 1: I played Kelsey props because I always played Kelsey props

1471
01:10:04,080 --> 01:10:07,160
Speaker 1: against the Bills. They all lost. He caught two balls

1472
01:10:07,200 --> 01:10:10,519
Speaker 1: for eight yards. Noah Great caught two touchdowns for some reason.

1473
01:10:10,960 --> 01:10:13,120
Speaker 1: Noah Great, get out here, may get one touchdown for

1474
01:10:13,200 --> 01:10:15,920
Speaker 1: evens bet, but then we're gonna hit our Kelsey bats.

1475
01:10:16,040 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 1: I think this is the playoffs. This is a little

1476
01:10:18,040 --> 01:10:19,960
Speaker 1: bit different. Now you're gonna get the ball to Kelsey.

1477
01:10:20,000 --> 01:10:22,599
Speaker 1: And the Bills have been pretty bad against tight ends. Remember,

1478
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:26,160
Speaker 1: bad short passes, bad against middle passes. So you'll want

1479
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 1: Kelsey Andrews and likely didn't end well for them last week,

1480
01:10:30,439 --> 01:10:32,559
Speaker 1: but they had nine catches for one hundred and thirty

1481
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:34,840
Speaker 1: four yards and a touchdown and almost a two point

1482
01:10:34,880 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 1: conversion that they should have had they torched them. That

1483
01:10:37,439 --> 01:10:39,920
Speaker 1: was the story of the game, those tight ends. Last

1484
01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:42,720
Speaker 1: six weeks, Bills tight ends. Our Bills against tight ends

1485
01:10:42,720 --> 01:10:45,519
Speaker 1: have allowed seventy four yards a game. Again, that's basically

1486
01:10:45,520 --> 01:10:49,519
Speaker 1: the Kelsey average here. So mahomes with Kelsey against the

1487
01:10:49,560 --> 01:10:52,439
Speaker 1: Bills seventy five plus yards to Kelsey in five out

1488
01:10:52,439 --> 01:10:55,000
Speaker 1: of the eight games, including all three playoff games. So

1489
01:10:55,040 --> 01:10:57,320
Speaker 1: I gotta bet the yards too. We bet this at

1490
01:10:57,360 --> 01:10:59,720
Speaker 1: open sixty five and a half, still sixty seven and

1491
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 1: a half. I like that Kelsey over on the yards

1492
01:11:02,520 --> 01:11:04,720
Speaker 1: and then we'll take the escalator to ninety plus this

1493
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:08,040
Speaker 1: week at plus two to thirty. So Kelsey over on

1494
01:11:08,120 --> 01:11:10,840
Speaker 1: the yards ninety plus yards for escalator, give me the

1495
01:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,720
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown plus one thirty five, give me some of

1496
01:11:13,760 --> 01:11:16,920
Speaker 1: those touchdown escalators again. It's all on the quick slip

1497
01:11:16,960 --> 01:11:20,160
Speaker 1: there for you, Travis Kelcey a legacy one more time

1498
01:11:20,280 --> 01:11:22,519
Speaker 1: and then another time again after that. Once they win.

1499
01:11:23,120 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 2: Six red zone targets for Kelsey in the last two games,

1500
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:29,200
Speaker 2: I think they're starting to look for him more. I

1501
01:11:29,280 --> 01:11:31,439
Speaker 2: kind of like the last touchdown angle and if he

1502
01:11:31,479 --> 01:11:34,240
Speaker 2: doesn't have and that's eight to one, if he doesn't

1503
01:11:34,280 --> 01:11:37,120
Speaker 2: have a touchdown at halftime, it's gonna be hard for

1504
01:11:37,160 --> 01:11:40,679
Speaker 2: me not to bet like Kelsey anytime touchdown at the half,

1505
01:11:41,000 --> 01:11:43,120
Speaker 2: and then I might even sprinkle it with the under

1506
01:11:43,240 --> 01:11:46,439
Speaker 2: second half. Casey just runs the game out of the

1507
01:11:46,520 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 2: you know, nobody scores. They do it. They're twenty nine

1508
01:11:49,240 --> 01:11:53,559
Speaker 2: and ten second half unders, last thirty nine games. They're

1509
01:11:53,600 --> 01:11:56,160
Speaker 2: just they make these games, they run the ball, they

1510
01:11:56,160 --> 01:11:59,120
Speaker 2: make these games end quickly. So I think that's interesting. Also,

1511
01:11:59,160 --> 01:12:01,679
Speaker 2: if you want to mess around here, Kelsey first touchdown,

1512
01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:05,000
Speaker 2: Kelsey last touchdown, and if you add two touchdowns to it.

1513
01:12:05,000 --> 01:12:07,400
Speaker 2: It actually goes up for some reason. But it's ninety

1514
01:12:07,439 --> 01:12:10,080
Speaker 2: to one, So I mean, I at least feel like

1515
01:12:10,360 --> 01:12:13,640
Speaker 2: I have to have something there. But I agree with you.

1516
01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:16,400
Speaker 2: I think Kelsey is in for a good one here.

1517
01:12:17,280 --> 01:12:19,840
Speaker 1: I mean, I suppose first touchdown, last touchdown could be

1518
01:12:19,880 --> 01:12:22,040
Speaker 1: in fact the same touchdown if they only scored one.

1519
01:12:22,120 --> 01:12:23,600
Speaker 1: So I guess that's why the odds have to go

1520
01:12:23,680 --> 01:12:25,840
Speaker 1: up a little bit. But I think that that's a

1521
01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:28,040
Speaker 1: fun narrative one as well. All right, last one a

1522
01:12:28,040 --> 01:12:30,640
Speaker 1: little bit simpler here I mentioned earlier. I looked at

1523
01:12:30,680 --> 01:12:33,320
Speaker 1: Dlonkin kaid, I looked at Xavier Worthy. We bet him

1524
01:12:33,320 --> 01:12:34,919
Speaker 1: on the hot rate over four and a half receptions,

1525
01:12:34,960 --> 01:12:37,360
Speaker 1: still like that one, but just pretty high. Now I'm

1526
01:12:37,360 --> 01:12:40,000
Speaker 1: gonna go for kind of Buffalo's version of that. Give

1527
01:12:40,040 --> 01:12:42,760
Speaker 1: me Khalil Shakir over five and a half receptions is

1528
01:12:42,760 --> 01:12:45,559
Speaker 1: plus one thirty five on that one. To me, I

1529
01:12:45,560 --> 01:12:47,920
Speaker 1: don't necessarily know who to trust on Buffalo as far

1530
01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:50,719
Speaker 1: as the receiver, except I do trust this guy Khalil

1531
01:12:50,760 --> 01:12:53,240
Speaker 1: shak Here. He's become a security blanket. He's the go

1532
01:12:53,280 --> 01:12:55,639
Speaker 1: to guy on third downs. He's got such good hands,

1533
01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:58,200
Speaker 1: He's at least six catches and at least sixty one

1534
01:12:58,280 --> 01:13:01,719
Speaker 1: yards both playoff games against the Chiefs. Earlier the season,

1535
01:13:01,760 --> 01:13:04,439
Speaker 1: had a season high twelve targets, caught eight balls for

1536
01:13:04,479 --> 01:13:07,160
Speaker 1: seventy yards. Last year in the playoffs, he also had

1537
01:13:07,200 --> 01:13:09,639
Speaker 1: a good game against the Chiefs seven catches, forty four

1538
01:13:09,720 --> 01:13:11,960
Speaker 1: yards and nine targets. So not a ton of yards here,

1539
01:13:12,280 --> 01:13:15,759
Speaker 1: but just those quick third down move the chain type throws.

1540
01:13:16,080 --> 01:13:18,160
Speaker 1: This to me is the guy Josh is looking for.

1541
01:13:18,439 --> 01:13:20,559
Speaker 1: And remember last year they had digs in that game too,

1542
01:13:20,600 --> 01:13:23,880
Speaker 1: and Shakira actually led the team in receptions. Chiefs have

1543
01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:26,240
Speaker 1: been vulnerable this season the wide receiver one and vulnerable

1544
01:13:26,320 --> 01:13:29,479
Speaker 1: especially to these kind of like small, crisp route runner

1545
01:13:29,520 --> 01:13:32,360
Speaker 1: type guys. I looked at their list and again judgment

1546
01:13:32,439 --> 01:13:34,920
Speaker 1: call here. I looked at who were guys kind of

1547
01:13:34,960 --> 01:13:38,080
Speaker 1: like this, like a Jacobe Myers for example, and Tank

1548
01:13:38,120 --> 01:13:40,559
Speaker 1: Dell for Houston had a big game against them. I

1549
01:13:40,600 --> 01:13:44,679
Speaker 1: counted seven guys like that, and they averaged ten targets

1550
01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:47,519
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, seven catches, seventy six yards. Every one

1551
01:13:47,520 --> 01:13:49,240
Speaker 1: of them had at least six catches and at least

1552
01:13:49,280 --> 01:13:52,719
Speaker 1: seven targets. So I want volume here, not necessarily yards,

1553
01:13:52,960 --> 01:13:56,320
Speaker 1: not necessary touchdowns. I just want to feed the receptions monster.

1554
01:13:56,520 --> 01:13:59,240
Speaker 1: So over five and a half receptions for Khalil Shakir

1555
01:13:59,680 --> 01:14:02,559
Speaker 1: plus one thirty five. Check the books look around here,

1556
01:14:02,600 --> 01:14:05,680
Speaker 1: because some books have this at four and a half receptions,

1557
01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:08,400
Speaker 1: heavy on the juice. I don't really need that. I

1558
01:14:08,479 --> 01:14:10,200
Speaker 1: just want to go straight to the better juice one

1559
01:14:10,240 --> 01:14:12,080
Speaker 1: at over five and a half, and then I do

1560
01:14:12,200 --> 01:14:15,040
Speaker 1: like seven plus catches at plus two to sixty. He's

1561
01:14:15,080 --> 01:14:17,640
Speaker 1: done that in four of his last sixteen games, but

1562
01:14:17,720 --> 01:14:19,680
Speaker 1: that's two games against the Chiefs where he hit it.

1563
01:14:19,720 --> 01:14:21,680
Speaker 1: That's two of the four there. So I like the

1564
01:14:21,680 --> 01:14:23,960
Speaker 1: seven plus catches there, And if you want to take

1565
01:14:24,000 --> 01:14:26,439
Speaker 1: the escalator a little further, eight catches is four to

1566
01:14:26,520 --> 01:14:29,000
Speaker 1: seventy five, ten catches is fifteen to one. Just a

1567
01:14:29,040 --> 01:14:30,720
Speaker 1: little nibble on those. I don't think he's going to

1568
01:14:30,760 --> 01:14:34,120
Speaker 1: have that huge of a game necessarily, but yeah, I

1569
01:14:34,280 --> 01:14:37,280
Speaker 1: just I'm looking at how do I invest in these quarterbacks. Here.

1570
01:14:37,640 --> 01:14:40,160
Speaker 1: I want Josh running and I want him passing the

1571
01:14:40,160 --> 01:14:42,800
Speaker 1: ball off to khalilshak here. I think that's the one

1572
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:44,680
Speaker 1: guy in Buffalo that I do trust a lot in

1573
01:14:44,680 --> 01:14:45,160
Speaker 1: this game.

1574
01:14:46,240 --> 01:14:50,960
Speaker 2: So today six plus targets in twelve consecutive games for

1575
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:53,479
Speaker 2: khalilsha here, So I mean he is getting the ball

1576
01:14:53,479 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 2: no matter what. And you had mentioned it. I mean

1577
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:56,720
Speaker 2: he had twelve targets in the last game, but he

1578
01:14:56,760 --> 01:14:59,960
Speaker 2: has twenty one targets in the last two meetings against Buffalo,

1579
01:15:00,000 --> 01:15:03,160
Speaker 2: So I mean against Kansas City. So definitely being looked

1580
01:15:03,200 --> 01:15:04,920
Speaker 2: at there. And I feel like if we're right and

1581
01:15:04,960 --> 01:15:07,080
Speaker 2: they're trailing, I mean, he's gonna get a lot of

1582
01:15:07,080 --> 01:15:10,120
Speaker 2: looks up the middle. So we will see how that goes.

1583
01:15:10,120 --> 01:15:11,160
Speaker 2: You have anything else here.

1584
01:15:11,560 --> 01:15:14,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean either way, both teams are going to

1585
01:15:14,160 --> 01:15:15,960
Speaker 1: be trailing, and both teams are probably gonna have like

1586
01:15:15,960 --> 01:15:19,280
Speaker 1: a two minute drive at some point. You love Shakir

1587
01:15:19,400 --> 01:15:22,240
Speaker 1: and Kelsey getting all those short passes five yeards, seven yards,

1588
01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:24,360
Speaker 1: Move the chains, move the cla Like. That's part of

1589
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:27,040
Speaker 1: why I like these scripts here, because I think both

1590
01:15:27,040 --> 01:15:28,960
Speaker 1: teams could be trailing, both teams looking to kind of

1591
01:15:28,920 --> 01:15:30,920
Speaker 1: speed things up, and this is the way that they

1592
01:15:30,920 --> 01:15:33,800
Speaker 1: speed up. Is It's that Julian Edelman Super Bowl MVP

1593
01:15:33,960 --> 01:15:35,760
Speaker 1: sort of thing. It's just like, just move the ball,

1594
01:15:35,880 --> 01:15:37,680
Speaker 1: move the ball, give me those eight yard outs, move

1595
01:15:37,720 --> 01:15:40,000
Speaker 1: the chains sort of thing. That's why I like both

1596
01:15:40,040 --> 01:15:43,400
Speaker 1: of them. This is probably the game that I bet

1597
01:15:43,439 --> 01:15:45,680
Speaker 1: the most things on every year when we get it

1598
01:15:45,720 --> 01:15:48,000
Speaker 1: in the playoffs or in the regular season. And now

1599
01:15:48,040 --> 01:15:50,640
Speaker 1: I've got Alan a hole list at bets, Kelsey a

1600
01:15:50,640 --> 01:15:53,000
Speaker 1: whole list at bets. I had the worthy, I'm on Shakir,

1601
01:15:53,320 --> 01:15:55,200
Speaker 1: I got all the both teams to score in the

1602
01:15:55,240 --> 01:15:58,040
Speaker 1: fourth quarter and they come from behind the when I'm

1603
01:15:58,080 --> 01:15:59,720
Speaker 1: gonna end up with like twenty five bets in the

1604
01:15:59,720 --> 01:16:03,200
Speaker 1: Apple on this one game alone somehow, but I cannot wait.

1605
01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:06,240
Speaker 1: This is the game of the year to me. Chiefs Bills,

1606
01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:09,240
Speaker 1: Alan Mahomes, you can't get any better than this with football.

1607
01:16:09,960 --> 01:16:11,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you said it perfectly. It almost feels

1608
01:16:11,880 --> 01:16:14,400
Speaker 2: like we've gotten a second and even third Super Bowl

1609
01:16:14,400 --> 01:16:16,960
Speaker 2: with the Buffalo Baltimore game last week, so I feel

1610
01:16:17,000 --> 01:16:18,680
Speaker 2: like we are treating it that way. We've got like

1611
01:16:18,720 --> 01:16:22,120
Speaker 2: a Propa palooza here. I mean, we've really gone the

1612
01:16:22,160 --> 01:16:24,840
Speaker 2: extra length. But that is it. That is the Best

1613
01:16:24,880 --> 01:16:30,880
Speaker 2: Bets podcast Action Network Conference Championship episode. Download the free

1614
01:16:31,080 --> 01:16:33,880
Speaker 2: award winning Action Network Gap to see more from all

1615
01:16:33,920 --> 01:16:36,599
Speaker 2: of our Action Network contributors. Plus you can track your

1616
01:16:36,600 --> 01:16:39,040
Speaker 2: own picks. Also make sure to check out the Action

1617
01:16:39,080 --> 01:16:42,439
Speaker 2: Network discord server Chop it Up with Experts. I'm in there.

1618
01:16:42,479 --> 01:16:44,920
Speaker 2: A bunch of people are just talking during games. Lots

1619
01:16:44,960 --> 01:16:47,599
Speaker 2: of fun. There's a link to join in the description

1620
01:16:47,760 --> 01:16:50,360
Speaker 2: of the podcast. Plus, if you want to tell any

1621
01:16:50,360 --> 01:16:52,320
Speaker 2: of the bets we gave out, which is like at

1622
01:16:52,400 --> 01:16:55,200
Speaker 2: least one hundred during this episode, make sure to look

1623
01:16:55,200 --> 01:16:58,040
Speaker 2: for the quick slip link in the podcast and video description.

1624
01:16:58,439 --> 01:17:01,360
Speaker 2: We will be back me and Brand Sunday night to

1625
01:17:01,400 --> 01:17:05,120
Speaker 2: recap both games and look towards the Super Bowl. We'll

1626
01:17:05,160 --> 01:17:07,719
Speaker 2: talk about the line, We'll talk about some props which

1627
01:17:07,760 --> 01:17:10,200
Speaker 2: I am sure will be out in twenty twenty five

1628
01:17:10,240 --> 01:17:12,960
Speaker 2: at least minutes after the matchup is set. And good

1629
01:17:13,040 --> 01:17:16,320
Speaker 2: luck with all your bets this weekend and three football games.

1630
01:17:16,360 --> 01:17:34,919
Speaker 2: Luck you can't believe it. Enjoy everybody. Action Network reminds

1631
01:17:34,960 --> 01:17:38,800
Speaker 2: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1632
01:17:38,840 --> 01:17:42,000
Speaker 2: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1633
01:17:42,000 --> 01:17:44,040
Speaker 2: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler