1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Gene Monster joins us here on the technology of the moment. 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 2: Gene Monster, I want to go bigger. 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: Broader with you because we sort of beat the death, 4 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,040 Speaker 1: you know, the Minutia news and all that on in 5 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: video and more iPhones out of Nikai saying Apple's doing better. 6 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 1: Scott Galloway is one of the wisest people I know, 7 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: and in some interview gene Monster, Scott Galloway said, basically 8 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: the single most important thing in his life is he's 9 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: never listened to people who said sell Microsoft, sell Apple, 10 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:37,279 Speaker 1: and now sell Invidia. Time Magazine Norman Seth the famous 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 1: photograph nineteen eighty four of Steve Jobs cross legged on 12 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: a living room floor with that ugly mac. The rich 13 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: kids owned it a million years ago. 14 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 2: How does gene. 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: Monster react emotionally when it's out there these tech juggernauts 16 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: sell Microsoft, sell Apple, selling video. 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 3: Well, I think the how I think about it is 18 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 3: just what's the long term. You got to think the 19 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 3: long term play, and there's the new term, and that's 20 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 3: what's the vortex that's going around in Vidia today. And 21 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 3: I generally react to a view of where the world 22 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 3: is going. In the case of within Vidia, it's a belief, 23 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 3: a strong belief I'm staking my career that AI is 24 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 3: going to be a bigger having a bigger impact than 25 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 3: the Internet. And if that's the case, this trading around 26 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 3: in Nvidia today is largely noise, even though it is 27 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 3: a three trillion dollar company. And the reason why I 28 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 3: still am comfortable and think of this in that same 29 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 3: class as Apple and Microsoft is that, ultimately is if 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 3: you believe that AI is going to be is transformative, 31 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 3: more transformative than the Internet. And there's a second belief 32 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 3: you have to have is that the way to get 33 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 3: there is through scaling laws, which basically say you have 34 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: to throw more compute in data at the problem to 35 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 3: solve for intelligence. Then Nvidia is going to be a winner, 36 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 3: and I think that it is in a great place. 37 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 3: I do want to add one an angle to an 38 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 3: additional angle to the context of just buy and hold forever. 39 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: Is that deep water we own in video. I think 40 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 3: the next two years are going to be far better 41 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 3: than what people are expecting today. But at some point, 42 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 3: when you're a hardware only company, there is a point 43 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 3: of deceleration that needs to be taken into consideration. And 44 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 3: I think that two years, three years from now this 45 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 3: may be a position that will trim, but we think 46 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: today is the time to own. 47 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 2: It, Gene. 48 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 4: When somebody like you, Geene Mounts Says, are staking their 49 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 4: career on this, that really really resonates for a lot 50 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 4: of our listeners and viewers. Gene, can you just remind 51 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 4: us how you view AI in a context of the Internet, electricity, 52 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 4: stuff like that, because that really hit home when you go, 53 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 4: I first heard you say that. 54 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 3: So I mean I guess that believe that this is 55 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 3: going to be transformed with a kind of struggle for 56 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 3: the right of nowlogy is it the Internet, is it mobile? 57 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 3: Is it electricity? And at the core of humanity is 58 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 3: intelligence And the concept of having intelligence in real time 59 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 3: at scale is something that it's hard to put a 60 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,679 Speaker 3: value on it. I think it's much more valuable than 61 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 3: connecting machines and connecting data. As powerful as that has been, 62 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 3: I think intelligence is a powerful a more powerful aspect 63 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 3: to it. And so there is a piece of a 64 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 3: huge missing piece around the substance of what does that 65 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 3: actually mean, like how is that going to impact our lives? 66 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 3: And the use cases and the examples have been few 67 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 3: and far between about how AIS like profoundly impacting our lives. 68 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 3: I just want to give one quick example. If we'd 69 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 3: go back in a time machine in ninety five and 70 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 3: be talking about the potential of the Internet, we could 71 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 3: easily frame out what that Facebook was going to happen 72 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 3: with social connecting over the Internet. We could see what 73 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: that Netflix was coming around the corner with video over 74 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 3: the Internet. But it would have been impossible for us 75 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 3: to understand that the smartphone was going to come because 76 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 3: that was obviously enabled by the Internet. Those kind of 77 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 3: second and third derivatives. And that's kind of similar to 78 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: how I think about AI more broadly. And I'm not 79 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 3: concerned that we don't have these killer use cases today 80 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 3: because I think that those will present themselves as we 81 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 3: reach closer to general and eventually super intelligence, which is 82 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 3: where it really gets crazy. 83 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: Were you surprised by the iPhone build out reported by 84 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: Nike today in Nickai rather in Tokyo. 85 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 2: Did that surprise your team. 86 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 3: Gene, I'm not surprised. I think what is most important 87 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 3: is that when I think about this next iPhone cycle, 88 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 3: you have to it comes back to this belief, and 89 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 3: do you think that these features are going to be 90 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 3: exciting for people, and I just I don't worry about 91 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 3: what kind of the near term builds are, whether they're 92 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 3: positive or negative. What I think about is is are 93 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 3: these features people will want? And I just quickly go 94 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 3: back for I look back over kind of last seventeen 95 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 3: iPhone cycles and try to compare what these AI features 96 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 3: are going to do for demand, and I think it's 97 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 3: similar to the iPhone six plus that was the first. 98 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 2: Large right, Oh, yeah, you have the iPhone six plus. 99 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so, But I'm upgrading soon, Geane. 100 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 2: That's good. 101 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 3: You're right there. You're only ten years, ten years in 102 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 3: and it's time Paul. But the iPhone growth I went 103 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 3: from twelve percent for the iPhone five cycle to fifty 104 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 3: two percent. I mean, it had a profound impact on 105 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 3: how people got excited about these devices. One just more 106 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 3: quick thought about how I think about the cycle is 107 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 3: that the if we look at the total number of 108 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 3: iPhones that are out there, there's about one point five 109 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 3: billion active iPhones. The act the life is just over 110 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 3: five years average life of an iPhone. And if you 111 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 3: take the next tranch, so take not the one that 112 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: typically upgrades this year, but the one that's going to 113 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: typically upgrade in late twenty twenty six, and you assume 114 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 3: ten percent of those just ten percent of those see 115 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 3: these AI features and say yes, I'm going to buy it. 116 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 3: A year early, the iPhone growth goes from seven to 117 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 3: fifteen percent, and so the sensitivity around just getting a 118 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 3: small piece of that massive pool to move forward is 119 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:18,799 Speaker 3: going to have a measurable impact on the business. 120 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 2: Gene thank you, Gene Monster. 121 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: With this thank you, I say really really appreciating, congratulations 122 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:24,559 Speaker 1: to our team.