Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea are really interesting. Dare I say? Twisted
Speaker 2: show today we had a real focus on fixed income.
Speaker 2: My major complaint with the bond market is the media
Speaker 2: focuses on yield and then they focus on spreads, the
Speaker 2: difference in yield between two yields, like a ten year
Speaker 2: yield a two year yield. You calculate the spread and
Speaker 2: it's like half a percentage point whatever the answer is.
Speaker 2: In times of emotion, in times of crisis, all of
Speaker 2: a sudden you focus on price and we're there right
Speaker 2: now where it's about price down. What does that do
Speaker 2: to your portfolio? So it was good to talk to
Speaker 2: a lot of different fixed income people today. Major shout
Speaker 2: out to Neil Sutherland, the Schroeders in Hartford of Connecticut,
Speaker 2: and Wayne Pennsylvania. Neil Sutherland should say and Neil was
Speaker 2: really quite good about full faith and credit and finding
Speaker 2: comfort in a coupon. We talked to Jim Karen Morgan
Speaker 2: Stanley with all of his fixed income expertise. He linked
Speaker 2: in the fixed income market to tough GDP numbers.
Speaker 1: I think the risk is that the number could even
Speaker 1: be weaker, So there's a lot of adjustments that really
Speaker 1: took place as of yesterday just because of the trade
Speaker 1: data that came in. You know, the deficit came in
Speaker 1: at record levels, so that forced all the Wall Street
Speaker 1: analysts to reduce or downgrade their GDP estimates for today.
Speaker 1: And essentially, what we have to understand is that a
Speaker 1: lot of this is coming from imports, meaning that companies
Speaker 1: have pulled forward purchases, so their imports have actually gone up.
Speaker 1: When you have high imports versus exports, that actually subtracts.
Speaker 1: That's a negative that what we call, you know, the
Speaker 1: net number, is actually subtracting from GDP. But there's a problem, Tom.
Speaker 1: The problem is that what's also not beingd is that
Speaker 1: these things should balance out, not only if you have
Speaker 1: really big imports, you should then start to see inventory
Speaker 1: build and you should also start to see spending consumption
Speaker 1: on those imports that's not yet coming into the equation yet.
Speaker 1: There's a quirk and the timing here, so it's almost
Speaker 1: like you're going to get negative aspects, but you're going
Speaker 1: to miss some of the positive and that's what's giving
Speaker 1: it a big negative number.
Speaker 2: Jim Carron and Morgan Stanley let me walk through that
Speaker 2: right now. I had a lot of interest in this,
Speaker 2: thank you for a smart tweet out there that said,
Speaker 2: explain it exactly. There's domestic economic might, and then there's
Speaker 2: what we do abroad. Abroad is the exports. We send
Speaker 2: out a lot of its services and a lot of
Speaker 2: it is the imports coming in. And think of the
Speaker 2: stereotype of Mercedes Benz from Germany or all the stuff stuff,
Speaker 2: stuff we bring in from China. That's imports coming in.
Speaker 2: It's way more complicated than what I just said. But
Speaker 2: the answer is what is the economy doing without exports dynamics,
Speaker 2: without import dynamics. It's a few other things they throw
Speaker 2: in as well, so you try to pass the exam.
Speaker 2: And the answer is there's the domestic economy may be
Speaker 2: measured by domestic final sales, other ways to do it too.
Speaker 2: And then there's export imports. And the ANSWER's imports were
Speaker 2: so ginormous stuff coming in to get it in front
Speaker 2: of the trade war that Charles Schwab quickly said, look,
Speaker 2: it's almost a five percent crater, negative four point eight percent,
Speaker 2: four point six percent, negative four point six percent just
Speaker 2: off imports. So pushing you against that was a pretty
Speaker 2: good US economy And the answer is it was about
Speaker 2: three percent GDP for the regular, old, boring domestic economy.
Speaker 2: It comes out to a number, then it'll be revised
Speaker 2: over the next two looks. But it was a negative
Speaker 2: statistic today for GDP, but all sorts of asterisks around that.
Speaker 2: What to focus on is the market took it in
Speaker 2: a challenging way, joining us then on the linkage of
Speaker 2: this trade wark into our economic data and our international relations.
Speaker 2: Peter Cheer of Academy.
Speaker 3: Securities, I can tell you quite safely that when we
Speaker 3: talk to our retire generals and admirals, one of whom
Speaker 3: is going to be Under Secretary of State, Undersecretary of
Speaker 3: Defense for Personnel and Readiness, they've never seen a more
Speaker 3: trying period of their lifetime, right they've served.
Speaker 4: There is so much risk across the globe, and recently too,
Speaker 4: you've had Indian Pakistan flare up a little bit. It
Speaker 4: does feel like there's this real risk that everyone's going
Speaker 4: to push the envelope a little bit. Whether it's there's
Speaker 4: a perception, whether it's real or not, but a perception
Speaker 4: that Trump is less focused on global protecting global interest.
Speaker 2: Peter sheer of Academy securities this morning. What's coming up here?
Speaker 2: It's an incredibly busy week. Lots of economic data today,
Speaker 2: and then we go on to claims tomorrow. I think
Speaker 2: that could be a surprise we'll see. And then the
Speaker 2: jobs report, boy, the analys. Right now, I would love
Speaker 2: to get a cup of coffee or along lunch with
Speaker 2: Anna Wog right now, just to get an update on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics on a survey number of one hundred and
Speaker 2: thirty five thousand non farm payrolls and a real mystery
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