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Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Break for Monday, April twenty fourth.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, Kevin McCarthy says the House will pass

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Speaker 2: is one and a half trillion dollar debt ceiling increase.

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Speaker 1: This week, Credit Sweet sees massive outflows during a frantic

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Speaker 1: first quarter.

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Speaker 2: Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta lead a busy week for tech earnings, and.

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Speaker 1: Bed Beth and Beyond is the latest retailer to file

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Speaker 1: for bankruptcy.

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Speaker 3: The US evacuates American diplomats and family from the deadly

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Speaker 3: fighting in Sudan. Plus a call de mandate safety standards

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Speaker 3: for lithium ion batteries. I'm Michael barr more ahead, I'm.

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Speaker 4: John Stash, Aaron Sports. Then nixt One lead their series

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Speaker 4: three to one, a loss for the Islanders, who trailed

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Speaker 4: three to one losses for the Mets and yank.

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Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business

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Speaker 5: news you need to sturn your day in just one

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Speaker 5: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories. We're

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Speaker 1: following today.

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Speaker 2: We begin with a debate that could come to a

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Speaker 2: head for markets in the coming weeks. The risk of

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Speaker 2: US default on its debt is front end center. House

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Speaker 2: Speaker Kevin McCarthy says his plan to raise the debt

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Speaker 2: ceiling by one and a half trillion dollars will pass

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Speaker 2: this week. We're the only ones in Washington that are

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Speaker 2: actually putting a responsible plan out that will raise the

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Speaker 2: debt limit. Think about for more than eighty days. It's

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Speaker 2: been since I sat.

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Speaker 5: Down with the President on February first to negotiate to

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Speaker 5: work through this, and he's ignored it.

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Speaker 2: Speaker McCarthy discussed his plan in an interview with Fox News.

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Speaker 2: He still may need to convince members of his own party,

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Speaker 2: a person familiar with the county tells Bloomberg McCarthy still

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Speaker 2: has not lined up enough votes to pass his bill.

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Speaker 1: Well, sticking with Paula takes Nathan. It looks like the

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Speaker 1: latest presidential polling shows both parties suffering from candidate fatigue,

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Speaker 1: and Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that story.

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Speaker 6: This is a new NBC News poll that shows Americans

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Speaker 6: souring on a Biden Trump rematch, and of course, at

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Speaker 6: this point the most likely scenario. It is. At this stage,

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Speaker 6: Trump has emerged as a strong front runner on the

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Speaker 6: GOP side. Biden is looking to formally announce as early

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Speaker 6: as this week, but the polling shows most of those surveys,

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Speaker 6: seventy percent said Biden should not seek reelection this while

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Speaker 6: sixty percent said Trump should bow out. Biden's age was

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Speaker 6: a top issue, while Trump's indictment didn't seem to mean much.

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Speaker 6: In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak, Thank you, Ed.

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Speaker 2: Let's turn to markets now, where it's a busy week

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Speaker 2: for corporate earnings. More than a third of the companies

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Speaker 2: in the S and P five hundred report results, and

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Speaker 2: we get a preview from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellace.

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Speaker 7: Technology will be in focus when we hear from Microsoft,

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Speaker 7: Meta platforms and alphabet. Lisa Shallett is chief investment Officer

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Speaker 7: for wealth Management at Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 8: So far, earnings have been mixed at best. You know,

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Speaker 8: certainly we've had a sector mix issue here that you know,

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Speaker 8: has prevented a material meltdown, but we've had some big

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Speaker 8: names missing and missing on fundamental things like demand, like pricing,

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Speaker 8: like margins.

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Speaker 7: This week, we hear from a wide range of companies

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Speaker 7: including General Motors, Caterpillar, x On Mobile, ge, MasterCard, Visa, PepsiCo,

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Speaker 7: Ubs and Ups in New York. Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 1: All right, Charlie, thanks. We We also get earnings from

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Speaker 1: a closely watched regional bank today, First Republic reports after

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Speaker 1: the close of US trading. Herman Schen is senior US

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Speaker 1: regional bank analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 9: First Republic is important because they are sort of viewed

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Speaker 9: as the ones in the crosshairs the most. If that

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Speaker 9: one does face an issue from the FDIC coming in,

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Speaker 9: the domino effect could happen again and the spotlight could

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Speaker 9: shift to other banks that maybe are performing a bit

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Speaker 9: weaker versus the other. So it's incumbent for First Republic

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Speaker 9: to really stabilize themselves for the industry's stake. And we'd

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Speaker 9: expect to see some commentary on some stabilization in their

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Speaker 9: deposit outflows later in the quarter, which should be.

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Speaker 1: And Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Hermann Chan anticipates more than eighty

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Speaker 1: billion dollars in deposit attrition at First Republic. That's before

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Speaker 1: larger banks swooped in to backstop the lender with thirty

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Speaker 1: billion dollars, and.

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Speaker 2: As we await those earnings, Karen one Big Bank CEO,

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Speaker 2: says the world is not facing a banking crisis. Morgan

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Speaker 2: Stanley's James Gorman tells Nike the banking system will remain

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Speaker 2: stable and healthy. Gorman says some individual firms mismanaged their

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Speaker 2: duration and interest rate risk, but most banks have not.

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Speaker 1: Well in Europe, Nathan, We're also watching banks this morning.

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Speaker 1: Earnings around from Credit Suite, showing a frantic first quarter

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Speaker 1: marked by heavy outflows, and we get the latest live

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg's You and Pots in London. You and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 10: Charon Nathan. As if UBS needed a reminder of the

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Speaker 10: challenge on its hands after the emergency takeover of rival

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Speaker 10: Credit Sweee, the failed lender saw sixty nine billion dollars

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Speaker 10: of outflows in the first quarter and its final earning support.

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Speaker 10: We also found out that key units at Credit Suite

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Speaker 10: continue to lose money and shed clients, and it barred

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Speaker 10: far more from a central bank liquidity backstop than previously known.

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Speaker 10: Plenty more to deal with for new owner UBS in London.

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Speaker 10: Immune Pot's new midday break.

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Speaker 2: All right you and thank you well. Back here in

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Speaker 2: the US, one of America's most well known retailers has

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Speaker 2: filed for bankruptcy. Now, let's get the details live with

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's John Tucker John.

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Speaker 11: Nathan bed Bath and Beyond shutting down. Act fast. If

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Speaker 11: you want some towels or bedsheets. They're going to be

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Speaker 11: liquidating three hundred and sixty bed Bath and Beyond stores

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Speaker 11: at one hundred and twenty by by Baby shops immediately.

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Speaker 11: This longtime customer expressed what many are feeling, sick debt scrulously,

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Speaker 11: they stop accepting coupons and membership discounts. Wednesday, sales at

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Speaker 11: any remaining brick and mortar stores will be completed. The

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Speaker 11: locations will be empty by June thirtieth. Analysts say port

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Speaker 11: management and a high debtloads suffocated the company founded in

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Speaker 11: nineteen seventy one. The New Jersey based company currently employs

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Speaker 11: about fourteen thousand people. There is a tiny sliver of

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Speaker 11: Holt bed Bath and Beyond. It may pivot away from

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Speaker 11: store closings in the unlikely event it finds some last

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Speaker 11: minute suitor. Live in New York. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg

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Speaker 11: day break.

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Speaker 1: All right, John, Thanks, and confusion surrounding Twitter is deepening.

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Speaker 1: This morning, a number of high profile accounts saw their

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Speaker 1: prized blue check marks reinstated, even though some of their

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Speaker 1: owners have been dead for years. Celebrities and public figures

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Speaker 1: took to the platform to deny having paid the eight

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Speaker 1: dollars a month.

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Speaker 2: It's forty five degrees in New York, will have a

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Speaker 2: mix of sun and clouds today and ahem, year sixty

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Speaker 2: mostly cloudy tonight, getting back down to around forty five. Now,

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Speaker 2: let's look at some of the other stories making news

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Speaker 2: in New York and around the world. For that, we're

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Speaker 2: joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan. President Biden personally ordered

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Speaker 3: the evacuation of the US embassy in Sudan's capital, Kartomb

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Speaker 3: as fighting continues between two rival military groups. The US

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Speaker 3: government made the decision that it was no longer safe

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Speaker 3: to have the embassy personnel there anymore. Senate Intelligence Committee

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Speaker 3: Chair Mark Warner says the US is working on rescuing

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Speaker 3: the many AID workers still in Sudan sheltering in place.

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Speaker 2: We are working with.

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Speaker 11: A lot of international partners in this case.

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Speaker 9: Partners from them at least even believe working with China

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Speaker 9: and Europeans to say those aid workers, we need.

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Speaker 12: To find a safe way to get them out.

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Speaker 3: Senator Warner spoke on ABC's This Week, which can be

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Speaker 3: heard Sundays on Bloomberg. Jerry's selection is set to begin today.

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Speaker 3: In the federal death penalty trial of a truck driver

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Speaker 3: accused of shooting to death eleven Jewish worshipers out of

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh synagogue, Robert Bauers faces sixty three accounts in the

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Speaker 3: twenty eighteen attack at the Tree of Life Synagogue. There

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Speaker 3: is a new push to crack down on poorly made

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Speaker 3: lithium ion batteries after a splank in fires, some of

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Speaker 3: them were deadly, including an eight year old girl who

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Speaker 3: died after a fire in their New York home. New

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Speaker 3: York senators are now pushing for federal safety guidelines. Senator

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Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer in New York City announced a new bill

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Speaker 3: to safety standards for lithium ion batteries.

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Speaker 12: When you hear from the fire commissioner that our firefighters

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Speaker 12: are having to learn in real time about these dangers

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Speaker 12: because they can explode and combust, particularly in fires, you

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Speaker 12: know that we need to act quickly.

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Speaker 3: The Senate Majority leader was joined by a fellow Senator,

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Speaker 3: Kirsten Gillibrand, saying many of the batteries are produced in

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Speaker 3: China and are unsafe. A South New Jersey Little League

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Speaker 3: is taking aim at spectators who fight with volunteer umpires

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Speaker 3: over calls they don't like.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 3: Deptford Township Little League officials say, if you fight with

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Speaker 3: the umps, you can find yourself calling three games before

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Speaker 3: you are allowed back in the bleachers. Township Little League

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Speaker 3: president Don Buzzufi.

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Speaker 4: They're not baseball players, they're children, so always keep that

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Speaker 4: in the back of your mind and let them play.

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Speaker 3: League President Buzzefi says it's gotten so bad two volunteer

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Speaker 3: umpires have quit in the past week. Global News twenty

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Speaker 3: four hours a day, powered by more than twenty seven

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Speaker 3: hundred journalists and analysts and over a hundred twenty countries.

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Speaker 3: And Michael Bard, this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 7: Nathan, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 2: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. Good morning, John Stanshaller.

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Speaker 4: Good morning, Nathan Knicks. Fans haven't had enjoyed a weekend

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Speaker 4: like this past one and a long time wins at

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Speaker 4: the Garden Friday night, then again yesterday afternoon, a little

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Speaker 4: closer than Game three was Nick blew up fifteen point leading,

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Speaker 4: fell behind, but they beat Cleveland one o two to

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Speaker 4: ninety three and half for the first time in a decade.

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Speaker 4: They are just one win from advancing to the second

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Speaker 4: round of the playoffs. Jalen Bruns and twenty nine points,

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Speaker 4: r J Barrett with twenty six the Nicks one without

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Speaker 4: much from Julius Random only seven points, two rebounds, and

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Speaker 4: he didn't play at all in the fourth quarter. Coach

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Speaker 4: Tom Thimbodeau Saint Randall is still suffering from the late

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Speaker 4: season ankle injury. The Cavs star Donovan Mitchell had only

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Speaker 4: eleven points, shot five of eighteen, had six turnovers. Game

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Speaker 4: five is Wednesday in Cleveland. Boston won in Atlanta to

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Speaker 4: go up three to one. Minnesota be Denver still trails

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Speaker 4: three to one, and a one point win for Golden

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Speaker 4: State over Sacramento. That series is tied to two. The

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Speaker 4: Warriors continuing what happened all season with them great at

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Speaker 4: home but struggles on the road at the Ubs Arena.

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Speaker 4: Carolina up beat the Islanders five to two and the

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Speaker 4: Hurricanes go up three games to one, all four road

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Speaker 4: teams one in the NHL, Boston at Florida for a

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Speaker 4: three to one league, Dallas at Minnesota, Edmondson LA. Both

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Speaker 4: those series in the Western now tied to two. That

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Speaker 4: Oilers Kings series has had three games go to overtime.

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Speaker 4: The Devils, off the ot win in Game three, will

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Speaker 4: now look to tie up the series with the Rangers. Tonight,

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Speaker 4: It's Game four at the Garden. No wins yet by

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Speaker 4: the home team. Mets at a lead on the Giants,

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Speaker 4: who then rallied scored eight ton One five to four.

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Speaker 4: Mets now come home Toronto beat the Yankees five to one.

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Speaker 4: They won the series, outscoring the Yanks thirteen to five.

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Speaker 4: It's the first series the Yanks have lost this season.

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Speaker 4: John Stashedward Bloomberg.

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Speaker 5: Sports Live from coast to coast, from New York to

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Speaker 5: San Francisco, Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius XM,

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Speaker 5: The Bloomberg Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 6: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 2: We're watching futures slip this morning with traders getting ready

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Speaker 2: for a flood of corporate earnings this week and some

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Speaker 2: key economic data at the end of the week that

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Speaker 2: could put the Fed's policy path into focus. Let's get

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Speaker 2: you set for the trading week ahead. We're joined by

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Speaker 2: Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University of Akron and

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Speaker 2: Dowment Investment Committee and the former publisher of the Gartman Letter. Dennis,

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Speaker 2: a lot for investors to focus on this week, even

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Speaker 2: with the FED in its blackout period now, But I'm

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Speaker 2: curious to get your thoughts on where things stand when

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Speaker 2: it comes to the debt ceiling debate, because we did

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Speaker 2: just hear from House Speaker McCarthy yesterday on one of

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Speaker 2: the Sunday shows saying that he does think his bill

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Speaker 2: will pass. Some of the reporting we're hearing, though, is

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Speaker 2: that he might not have the votes from his own

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Speaker 2: party lined up. How big a risk would you say

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Speaker 2: the threat of default should be for investors?

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Speaker 13: The risk of default should be relatively minimal. To be

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Speaker 13: quite honest, I've been in this business for almost fifty years.

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Speaker 13: I've seen this process when its way to finalization. I

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Speaker 13: don't know, five, six, seven times in the course of

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Speaker 13: the past fifty years, we'll get to eleven fifty nine,

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Speaker 13: fifty nine on the clock and they'll come up with

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Speaker 13: an agreement of some sort. Yes it's difficult, Yes it's disconcerting.

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Speaker 13: Yes it's dismaying. Yes we look like a third world nation.

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Speaker 13: But when push comes to final show they'll reach some

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Speaker 13: sort of an agreement. It's a little discouraging to find

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Speaker 13: out that even the Republicans are unable to pass piece

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Speaker 13: of legislation to get it through the House. Whatever they

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Speaker 13: come up with to begin with will be denied by

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Speaker 13: the Senate, but eventually there will be a resolution. It's

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Speaker 13: always come that way. Let us hope that I'm not

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Speaker 13: overly optimistic. Let us hope that I'm absolutely right, and

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Speaker 13: I think that I shall be. This is, as I said,

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Speaker 13: I've lived through this too many times in the past

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Speaker 13: to think that we are stupid beyond belief to allow

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Speaker 13: a default of the United States government obligations that just

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Speaker 13: won't happen, or let's put it this way, that just

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Speaker 13: cannot happen. If it were to happen, it would be

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Speaker 13: a war effort of consequence. And let us hope that

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Speaker 13: I'm optimistic and correct.

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Speaker 2: Could we see volatility for investments on the way to

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Speaker 2: that outcome?

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Speaker 13: Not a question. We'll see great volatility, and I think

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Speaker 13: that the big risk is to the downside in the

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Speaker 13: stock market at this point. I think that's where the

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Speaker 13: risks lie, not so much in the government securities themselves,

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Speaker 13: but in the fact that the public has been involved,

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Speaker 13: the fact that we've had a huge rally in stocks

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Speaker 13: since the start of the year predicated basically upon five

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Speaker 13: share five companies Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Navidia. I

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Speaker 13: think between between the five of them, that's been almost

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Speaker 13: two thirds of the gain of the S and P

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Speaker 13: five hundred has been predicated upon the advantage of those stocks.

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Speaker 13: That's where the risks lie.

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Speaker 2: And we are going to hear from those companies reporting

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Speaker 2: earnings many of those companies this week. In fact, what's

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Speaker 2: your expectation what we're going to see from the earnings

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Speaker 2: from those mega megacap tech companies. Can they continue to

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Speaker 2: keep the kind of momentum that they've shown in the

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Speaker 2: start of this year.

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Speaker 13: Investors better hope that they can continue to keep that

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Speaker 13: type of momentum. They've laid off a lot of people,

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Speaker 13: or said that they shall be laying off a number

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Speaker 13: of people. The earnings and estimates are beyond my can

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Speaker 13: to be quite honest, I'm more fascile with the what's

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Speaker 13: going on with government security, is more facile with what's

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Speaker 13: going on in for in exchange, more fascile with what's

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Speaker 13: going on in commodities. I leave the estimates of earnings

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Speaker 13: of corporations to other people wiser than I hate to

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Speaker 13: say that, but it's just the I've learned after the

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Speaker 13: course of five decades of this business, Trying to make

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Speaker 13: an estimate of corporate earnings is beyond my can.

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Speaker 2: Well, you can make an estimate as far as what

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Speaker 2: we're expecting from this Federal Reserve and the possibility of

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Speaker 2: more rate hikes to come, and the potential that that

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Speaker 2: could have an impact on credit conditions going forward. What

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Speaker 2: are you seeing when it comes to the risk of

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Speaker 2: further credit tightening after what we saw in the regional

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Speaker 2: banks in the last couple of months.

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Speaker 13: I think that's a very fair and estimation that shall happen.

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Speaker 13: I don't think there's any question but that regional banks

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Speaker 13: and smaller banks are tightening up their loan applications, their

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Speaker 13: loan requirements. There's no questions that that's happening. I think,

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Speaker 13: as far as the FED is concerned, another twenty five

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Speaker 13: basis points is typed into the market, no question. The

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Speaker 13: question shall be what happens after the May meeting, where

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Speaker 13: we'll get twenty five basis points that may be actually

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Speaker 13: will may be the terminal rate. But when will the

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Speaker 13: Fed begin to ease monetary policy? When shall they begin

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Speaker 13: to allow the overnight FED funds right to decline. That's

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Speaker 13: not going to happen until twenty twenty four at the earliest.

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Speaker 13: It'll be quite some period of time. The Fed shall

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Speaker 13: sit tight do nothing after raising twenty five more basis

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Speaker 13: points at the main meeting.

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Speaker 2: In our last thirty seconds here, Dennis, do you think

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Speaker 2: that holds up? That thesis holds up. If we do

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Speaker 2: see a further credit tightening, that could have an impact

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Speaker 2: on what the Fed could do later on this year

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Speaker 2: into NAC.

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Speaker 13: I think the actual facts of credit tightening by the

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Speaker 13: regional and smaller banks is not going to become public

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Speaker 13: knowledge until five a month to six weeks out. So

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Speaker 13: the SAED has to deal with what they have on

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Speaker 13: hand at this point, and that's the inflation still is

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Speaker 13: a problematic circumstance. It'll be there will be a reason

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Speaker 13: for the Fed too to hold right steady through the summer,

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Speaker 13: into the autumn and into the winter, predicated upon a

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Speaker 13: slowing of credit availability. But that's going to be down

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Speaker 13: the road someplace. We don't have to worry about that

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Speaker 13: right now. That FED does not have that, we'll not

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Speaker 13: have the facts of that circumstance for a question rate

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Speaker 13: in time, in into the future.

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