WEBVTT - Part Two: The Uninhabitable Earth, An Interview 0:00:03.680 --> 0:00:06.160 Hey, O, this is it could happen here the Daily Show. 0:00:06.600 --> 0:00:08.800 This episode is going to be part two of a 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:12.880 interview with author and journalist David Wallace Wells. You have 0:00:12.920 --> 0:00:15.240 not listened to part one. You should probably do that first. 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:18.840 But anyways, without a further ADO, let's get this second 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:25.600 interview going. I appreciate the optimism, I guess. I mean 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:28.920 we actually just say, like, you know, two degrees hundred 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:32.640 and fifty million additional people dying of air pollution. It 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:36.040 wance a century hitting every single year. Cities in South 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:38.440 Asia and the Middle East are so hot during summer 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.040 that you don't go outside without risking heat stroker death, 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:44.080 hundreds of millions of climate refugees. When I say, like, 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:45.839 we're going to get to our best case scenario, that's 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:49.280 the best case scenario that I'm describing. It's not optimism 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:53.639 by anybody's compactional definition. Is just optimism compared to like 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:58.360 what actually looked possible a few years ago. And you know, ultimately, 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:00.800 I think the only intellectually response able perspective is to 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:02.520 try to hold those two facts in your mind at once. 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:06.720 To say things inevitably will be grim. We will have 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:09.400 to be doing an enormous amount of adaptation to allow 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:14.039 ourselves any promise of human flowers fishing in even the 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.440 best case scenario. But also changes have been made and 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:19.560 will be made in the in the next few years 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:22.560 and then certainly in the next decades that allow us 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:26.679 to avert a lot of even bleaker, even grimmer on futures. 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:28.480 And you know, I think both of those things are true. 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:31.679 Whether you tend to, whether you you know your impulse 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:33.880 is to place your sort of emotional weight on the 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:35.840 first fact of the second is really more matter of 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:38.679 personal temperament, I think than it is about um. The 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:40.520 facts on the ground. The facts on the ground say 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.840 that you know, basically, if even a few years ago 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:45.800 it was defensible to say we could achieve one point 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:48.440 five degrees, but also a business as usual was four 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:50.320 and a half degrees, we're now looking at a much 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:54.320 narrower window where unless we're really surprised by climate sensitivity, 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:56.520 which may be something we could talk about, also that 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.200 we're looking at something like the range of two to 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:01.520 three two degrees to three degrees, and that's like, um, 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:03.960 we have a much clearer idea of where we're gonna 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:07.080 end up. I would say I'm you know, one of 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.320 the things when you when you lay out as you 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:14.720 do very very um very well, the what that actually means, 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:16.640 what two degrees means, like what that means in human 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:21.640 cost um. I have to think that there's going to 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:27.239 be an increasing desire to uh punish the people particularly 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:30.640 who were responsible for like the different kind of disinformation 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:34.200 campaigns that have persisted over the last couple of decades. 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:37.200 I don't know how much political attraction I expect those 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.000 to get um, but one of the things we do 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:41.760 we are going to be talking about is like the 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:44.480 potential of sort of a climate Nuremberg. And I'm wondering 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:49.680 if you if you think that's even a productive avenue 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:51.800 of thought or is it kind of one of those 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:55.160 there's there's so much is it a situation where I 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.360 guess I'm just interested if you if you've thought about 0:02:57.360 --> 0:02:59.120 that in any way yourself, or if you think that's 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.919 just not a particular the productive line of thought to 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:07.520 go down, Well, I think it's um an intellectually rewarding 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:12.040 way of thinking about the problem. Whether it has practical 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:19.840 real world upside, I'm a little more ambivalent about, but 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:24.800 I would say, you know, there are two sets of 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:31.040 issues that you're talking about. There is, did companies like 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:36.680 Exxon and Shell delay action on climate change by shaping 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:40.480 our sense of urgency around the climate crisis and buying 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:43.720 off politicians in a way that meaningfully change the trajectory 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:49.480 of global warming? If so, to what degree and to 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:53.400 what degree should they be held responsible to me? That 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:57.040 I mean, I think that like those companies should be pulverized, 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:00.280 you know that, like they should be um even just 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:02.640 from a practical perspective, put aside the morality, like we 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:05.480 need to stop producing fossil fuels, like those companies should 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:08.680 not continue to be in that business. I think it's 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:10.320 also worth pointing out that many of the biggest oil 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:12.840 companies in the world are state owned, not private enterprises. 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:15.760 But I also think there's the sort of separate question, 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:19.920 which is countries of the world. The United States has 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:25.200 benefited enormously from the cheap energy produced from the burning 0:04:25.200 --> 0:04:28.000 of fossil fuels like that had That explains a lot 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.679 of how we became the dominant power in the world. 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.080 Um And one amazing thing about carbon is that it 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:36.240 hangs in the atmosphere for at least three hundred years, 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:38.800 which means that every single ounce of carbon that has 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.839 ever been produced in the entire history of industrialization is 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:45.680 still in the air heating the planet today, UM, which 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:49.840 means that the climate doesn't care if that coal is 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:54.240 being burned in you know she Jin Pings China, or 0:04:54.279 --> 0:05:00.000 Frederick Engels Manchester, or you know Abraham Lincoln's United States, 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:02.720 they are all having the equal effect. And that we 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:08.720 should think about the impact of past emissions when thinking 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:13.719 about responsibility for the crisis, um, as much as we 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:17.320 think about how to shape future emissions. UM. You know, 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:21.680 I think the climate reparations as an idea is very powerful. 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:26.640 I think, um, you know, countries like the US have 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:31.120 profited from this technology is one way to think of it, 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:38.080 that will be punishing, um those in the developing world 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:43.760 who have benefited considerably less, considerably more. Even from a 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:49.840 practical like how do we stabilize the world's system and 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:52.280 our geopolitics point of view, I think it makes sense 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.400 for the wealthy countries in the world to support the 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:59.600 poorer countries in their efforts both to decarbonize and to adapt. 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:03.760 There is some amount of that being negotiated now, although 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:08.320 I think it's woefully inadequate, And you know, it's something 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.440 I'm working on at the moment, but you you really 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:12.839 can sort of put a dollar figure on exactly what 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:14.839 like the U s O S in this context, because 0:06:14.880 --> 0:06:16.480 we know how much it cost to take carbon out 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:18.520 of the air. So if you take a price of 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:20.560 like fifty dollars a ton, then the US basically has 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:24.200 a climate reparations bill of like trillion dollars um, which 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:25.880 is two and a half times what China's does, which 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:28.080 is the second biggest country. And I do think that 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:30.120 that's also really important to keep in mind when people 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:34.400 talk about China. China is an incredibly important player going forward, 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.919 but because of the weird timeline bending nature of carbon emissions, 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:41.359 like the US is still much more important that we 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:43.720 The US brought us to the brink. It's just China 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.000 that's at risk of pushing us over the brink. And 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:50.640 on the company front, I'm supportive of lawsuits that are 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:53.680 that are already going forward on these issues, and those 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:57.440 lawsuits that are going forward that obligate particular companies to 0:06:58.160 --> 0:06:59.840 behave in ways that are in line with the goals 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:01.760 in the Paris Agreement. I think that those are useful 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.200 I think I'm a little maybe a little less comfortable 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:09.039 attributing so much responsibility for the current crisis to the 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:11.000 villainy of those companies, although I don't deny that they've 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:14.240 been villainous in the sense that we really have been 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.920 voting with our you know, with our dollars on this 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:19.720 for a long time, UM, and I do think that 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:25.120 most people have, you know, or as a society, as 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:29.640 a civilization, we've chosen to continue using fossil fuels basically 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.720 because they were they provided cheaper energy than any other option. 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:35.760 That's not to say that there's been no effect, um, 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:38.360 from the disinformation campaigns. I think there has been an effect. 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:41.800 But if you rewind that history and don't engage in 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:45.760 that disinformation, I have a hard time believing even if 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:49.000 you're just like looking at the cost of renewable power, 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:50.760 I have a hard time imagine in the US like 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:53.840 embarking on a major renewable push like in the year 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:57.760 or two thousand, of the scale that's possible now because 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:00.760 of the changing market dynamics there. So, you know, another 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:03.040 way of looking at the same issue is um, you know, 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:06.840 climate denial is I would say it's no longer really 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:08.760 alive anywhere. It's no longer really alive in the US. 0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:11.480 But it was much more pronounced in the US in 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:14.280 American politics than any other country in the world for 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.600 a very long time, aside from maybe Australia. And it 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:20.400 wasn't like those other countries were decarbonizing much much faster 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.360 than we were. Um they maybe we're a little bit 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:26.120 in parts of Scandinavia, um Like Denmark has done a 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:28.280 bit better, the UK has done better over the last 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:29.880 five or ten years in the U S. But like 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.440 in general, we're all sort of on the same track together, 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:34.520 Which makes me think that a lot of these dynamics, 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:37.200 at least to this point, are much more the result 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.840 of um social and cultural forces than they are direct 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:46.000 fossil fuel disinformation and denial campaigns. But you know, that's 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:47.440 not to say that I think that those people should 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:49.679 be let off the hook, um in the same way 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:53.160 that the cigarette company cigarette companies were held to account 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:57.320 for their decades of disinformation. I just also think, like 0:08:58.280 --> 0:08:59.880 the son of a guy who died of lung cancer, 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:02.319 like I don't think that like the cigarette company is 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.800 to blame for my dad's death. Like I just don't, um, 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:07.720 like I'm glad that they're I'm glad that they had 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:09.520 to pay those fines. I'm glad that they were, like, 0:09:09.840 --> 0:09:12.360 you know, to some degree, push to the edge of bankruptcy. 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:14.960 I'm glad that cigarette smoking is not nearly as dad 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:17.880 a force in our culture and our public health and 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:19.920 it used to be. But I also think that there 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:23.080 is like I don't know, to point the finger neatly 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:26.320 at that, at those like ten big companies or whatever. 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:28.800 I just think it's a little simplistic and lets us 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:30.640 all off the hook. But I do think that's another 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:32.680 big story. Here is the way in which, as the 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:36.120 crisis unfolds, many more people will want to see themselves 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:39.320 as blameless UM and not be willing to really see 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:42.280 clearly that the role that they played or those that 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:45.800 they loved played in exacerbating the problem, even if just 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:51.760 through UM by living in complacency and denial for too long. Yeah. Yeah, 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:56.080 you probably just no, no, no, it is like that. 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:59.800 That's the thing though, it is it is UM. I 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:02.160 can cut again. You can hold two things in your head, 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:05.240 which is that UM, the attempts to mislead people and 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:09.480 alter the public conversation around climate change through bad data, 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:15.120 we're criminal UM. And also that fundamentally the damage was 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:18.360 done by our desire to continue living a certain lifestyle. 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.680 And we knew that and and and past a certain point, especially, 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:23.400 we knew that it would continue to like we kept 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:27.800 buying the cars, we kept orienting our societies in such 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.079 a way, we kept consuming and putting carbon into the atmosphere. 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.400 And it is this question of Okay, if you're saying, 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:36.160 in the United States, I want to hold ex On 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:41.120 Mobile and Chevron accountable, Well, then who who's holding you 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:44.360 accountable for the fact that you, as an American, were 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.880 responsible for a vastly greater amount of environmental degradation than 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:51.480 somebody living in Kuala Lumpur. Yeah. I think Also it's 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:54.520 you know, we have this like in part because of 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:56.800 the cultural changes that have unfolded over the last fe years. 0:10:56.880 --> 0:11:00.160 These are not like the world's richest companies and or 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:03.319 and so like liquidate liquidating them just like simply does 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:07.600 it from just like a like the perspective of UM 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:10.560 finding capital that will help us in this fight, like 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:13.640 liquidating these companies simply doesn't get us nearly as far 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.640 as it might have twenty or thirty years ago. I 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.120 think that there is a moral case for closing them down. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.640 I think there's a practical place case for literally just 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.640 closing them down. UM. I think we should try to 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.920 pursue that UM. But I also think that you know, 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:31.679 it's like you take all Bill Gates's money away, like 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:33.600 it's not like people in stuff Saharan Africa are going 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:35.439 to be millionaires. It's just like there isn't that much 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.400 money to go around, and the same that's true of 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:40.960 the fossil field companies. But you know, I do think, UM, 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:42.880 I do think there needs to be a kind of 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:50.600 UM mechanism for capital redistribution UM in the service of 0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:56.120 decarbonization and UM climate resilience. I think that that is 0:11:56.800 --> 0:12:01.520 a very very urgent moral demands that the climate of 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:03.480 the future is making of us, Which is to say, 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:09.800 you know, let's try to treat hundreds of millions of 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:14.240 people living in Bangladesh near the coast like they were living, 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.800 you know, on the Gulf coast of the US, and 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:21.080 treat their lives with as much give their lives as 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:24.679 much significance, and UM, do the same level of things 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:27.640 that we would want to do for our distant relatives 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:31.360 to protect their lives and livelihoods there to name one example. 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:33.400 I mean, you know, it's not just like there's one 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:35.360 place to deal with it. But they can't even get 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:37.280 a hundred billion dollars out of the G seven to 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:39.440 you know, to the developing world. I think we're gonna 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:53.000 need considerably more than that going forward. Yeah, I've been 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.880 reading the book Disposable City by Mario Riza, which is 0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.640 about Miami, and like the fact that Miami is doomed 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:02.760 and less things actions are taken in order to make 0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:07.480 it survivable in the future. And I kept thinking throughout 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:09.240 that process because it's a very good book, I think, 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.800 very well written. But also just like all of these 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.320 problems are going to be commen certainly more severe for 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:17.200 people living in huge chunks of Southeast Asia the form 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.760 much larger population than Miami, but we will never have 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:23.360 the resources dedicated towards them, and they're also it's also 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:25.240 the case that a lot of the solutions that we 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:27.560 we think of here are not available there in the 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:29.720 sense that you know, there was a big study that 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:31.640 came out maybe six or nine months ago looking at 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:33.880 what it would mean to for land use in the 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:36.839 US to be to really decarbonize the power sector through 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.959 wind and solar, and you know, it's it was significant. 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:41.560 It was like it was it was not it's not 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:42.839 like half the country, but it was like, I think 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:45.480 we had to do something like we had to use 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.800 like a couple of multiples of the land of North 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.480 Dakota um to like get to a total totally zero 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:56.839 carbon electricity sector, and like you can't do that in Indonesia. 0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:01.160 They're just that amount of land. And what does that mean? 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.559 Is that an argument for nuclear? Is that an argument 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.160 for you know, a lot more offshore? You know, like 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:08.760 it's not exactly clear, but we also we have there 0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:11.120 are many ways in which Americans thinking about climate change 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.160 suffer from a national narcissism and really think that the 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:17.360 whole global problem is our problem. But um, the challenge 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:19.640 is really different everywhere, both on the adaptation side on 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:23.560 the mitigation side, and you know, in a lot of 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:25.560 places it's going to be just tricky to figure out. 0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:27.440 And the more that we can do as you know, 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:32.640 those with more, um, the more I don't know, it's 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:34.280 not quite well. I'm sure we're never going to be 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:36.680 behaving in ways that that are actually moral in this issue, 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:41.240 but maybe like approaching some kind of morality, you know, Garrison, 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.680 did you have anything else you wanted to get into UM? Yeah, 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:47.800 I can maybe talk about what you think the future 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:51.840 of international coalitions are going to be in terms of 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:57.120 like the different summits UM what you know, the different 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:01.280 ways the u N might try to do stuff. Yeah, 0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:04.440 like how how do you see the effectiveness or maybe 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.480 not even effectiveness, but like just how do you see 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.880 that impacting UM people's perception of what's going to happen? 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:13.720 And then you know, if if you think that has 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:18.400 any chance of making things better at all, well, you 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.480 know what. The the examples that I used in the 0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:24.360 book I think are still UM. The ones that I 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.080 come back to, which is UM the way that the 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:32.440 post World War two international order, which was led primarily 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:37.520 by the USUM, treated the issues of human rights and 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:42.120 free markets, which were never like handed over to a 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:47.000 particular political authority to police around the world, but which 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:53.600 became universal enough values that they could be invoked as 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:59.400 reasons to intervene in other countries, to invade other countries, 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:04.200 to bully other countries in you know, in UM trade negotiations, 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:09.440 and you know, oftentimes they were covers for what we're 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:13.040 basically just national self interest, you know, calling something human 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:15.120 rights issue so that you could open a market or whatever. 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.360 But on the whole, I think they did sort of 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.880 successfully promote both of those values over the course of 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.560 those fifty years. You know, not to say that markets 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:28.160 are unequal a value that we should value as much 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.280 as we value human rights. But we saw you know, 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:34.560 globally a changing culture of geopolitics sort of as a result, 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:39.040 and the tools that were used not just by the US, 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:43.920 but especially by the US in promoting that change. We're 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:47.360 really diverse. Like sometimes we did go to war. Sometimes 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.440 we just argued about stuff in the u N. Sometimes 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.440 we you know, put sanctions on countries and refused to 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:55.800 trade with them because we consider them, you know, to 0:16:55.880 --> 0:17:00.200 be behaving immorally. Sometimes we finance clandestine wars like where 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:02.640 our CIA agents trained. You know, we did a whole 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:05.200 lot of different ship in the name of those values. 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:08.520 Um and I sort of suspect we're likely to see 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.879 the same thing unfold with climate, where it becomes a 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:17.359 sort of first order value of the global system. And 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:21.040 that doesn't mean that there is a independent climate change 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.520 authority with you know, some kind of you know that 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:27.080 that can like throw leaders in jail for behaving badly, 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.160 that I can go into Brazil and arrest jar Balsonaro 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:31.359 or something. Um, I don't think that's all that likely. 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:33.560 But I think that we start, we start to talk 0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:37.000 about power dynamics um as in ways that are inflected 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:39.800 at least with climate considerations. And I think we're already 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:41.800 starting to see that. You know, the way that the 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:45.720 EU is talking about um it's border adjustment carbon tax. 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:48.040 There's a similar proposal now in the in the US 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:52.480 really suggests that we're already embedding climate values in what 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:56.679 were once quite coldly calculated trade deals. You know, there 0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:58.600 was a couple of years ago there was that back 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:00.640 and forth about the fires in the amaz On where 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.400 where Emmanuel mccron threatened to pull out of a major 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:07.879 trade deal with with Brazil over the fires and like 0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:11.160 you didn't totally come to pass. But um, that sort 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:14.399 of power dynamic I think is quite um, you know, 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:17.560 quite present on the world stage already. Now. The question 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:23.280 is ultimately like who's doing the policing, who's empowered to 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.600 enforce these values and one of their own what's their 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.919 own record? You know, at the moment, the US, I think, 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.080 is not really in a position to lecture anybody. And 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:36.080 to some degree, you know, in a certain light, China 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:41.280 has a certain amount of um, you know, moral authority 0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:47.120 here because they've they've invested so aggressively and um green technologies. 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:49.760 But they also have the opposite problem, which is that 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:53.119 they are still wearing a ton of coal. And I 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:55.040 don't really know, you know, there's been a lot of 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:57.680 I don't really know how that dynamic will play out. 0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:02.000 I just think it's hard to imagine a geopolitics going 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:04.280 forward that doesn't center climate change in the same way 0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:06.160 that some of these other values have been centered. But 0:19:06.320 --> 0:19:09.800 what I do think is very clear is that the 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:17.800 U N based treaty framework is probably at most a 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:21.760 partial component of this dynamic and not the whole of it. 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:24.240 Um you know, all of I mentioned this earlier, but 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:26.600 all of the net zero pledges we've seen over the 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:30.000 last couple of years, all of them have been done 0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:32.879 totally outside of the you know, the Paris Framework and 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.920 the UN framework. It's not the US are China going 0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:37.879 around and telling India that they need to up their 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:41.760 ambition at all. It's you know, all of these countries 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:44.000 coming to the realization that it is in their self 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:47.200 interest to decarbonize, and that is I think a likelier 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:50.639 path forward than one in which these things are negotiated 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:52.400 country to country. And I think it's frankly a lot 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:56.720 healthier because for a long time, climate diplomacy was conducted 0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:04.320 under the anxiety of UM the collective action problem, which 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:07.920 is to say that, you know, the US goes to 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:11.480 zero carbon tomorrow, functionally, its climate will go will be 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:13.879 unchanged over the rest of the century, even even a 0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:17.359 huge amount of like the US UM compared you know, 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:20.280 if nobody else does anything. And so everybody's just sort 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:22.520 of waiting around, waiting for someone else to to act, 0:20:22.560 --> 0:20:26.720 because they think the cost of acting nationally or locally 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:30.320 is born nationally and locally, but the benefit of acting 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:35.119 nationally or locally is carried around the world. Now, I 0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:38.040 think that is no longer the paradigm. I think that's 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.639 the reason why we're seeing all of these new nation, 0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:44.360 new national pledges outside of the framework of paris UM. 0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:45.960 I think that's in part because we have a clear 0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:47.880 understanding of the damages of climate change. I think it's 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:50.560 also really we're having We're getting a much clearer sense 0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:54.359 of the burdens of help from air pollution, from the 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:56.640 burden of fossil fuels, And so when you're doing your 0:20:56.680 --> 0:21:01.000 even like your crudest um cost benefit analysis, it seems 0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:04.399 really obvious that decarbonizing is worth it independent of the 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:08.280 climate benefits. And you know that's true in the US. 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.800 Dru Sian dell Is, this great professor at Duke, has 0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.440 calculated that the health benefits of decarbonizing the American electricity 0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:19.800 sector would entirely pay for themselves. It would entirely pay 0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:22.080 for the project. Um. You don't have to factor in 0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:24.760 any climate benefit at all. It's just like through cleaner air, 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.400 it would be paid for by itself. I think many 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:29.040 more countries around the world are seeing things that way, 0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:31.800 and that's why they're beginning to move more quickly. And 0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:36.639 even though that's like a a sign that the geopolitics 0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:44.680 is abandoning some of its moral pretense um and returning 0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:49.000 to something that amounts to a more naked, even quasi 0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:53.920 like capitalistic um mercenary set of values, I also think 0:21:53.960 --> 0:21:56.680 that it I have a sort of easier time trusting 0:21:56.680 --> 0:21:59.600 the progress will happen in that context, if every country 0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:02.359 thinks that, um, they're people will be better off if 0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:04.600 their economy is greener. I don't think we're gonna do 0:22:04.640 --> 0:22:06.600 it fast enough, but I think the progress is is 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:10.600 on the way. The last thing I wanna maybe discuss 0:22:10.680 --> 0:22:15.840 a little bit is the future of carbon capture and 0:22:15.880 --> 0:22:20.040 geo engineering, specifically with you know, Bezos and Mosk and 0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:25.520