1 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Hey, O, this is it could happen here the Daily Show. 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: This episode is going to be part two of a 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: interview with author and journalist David Wallace Wells. You have 4 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: not listened to part one. You should probably do that first. 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: But anyways, without a further ADO, let's get this second 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:25,600 Speaker 1: interview going. I appreciate the optimism, I guess. I mean 7 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: we actually just say, like, you know, two degrees hundred 8 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: and fifty million additional people dying of air pollution. It 9 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: wance a century hitting every single year. Cities in South 10 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: Asia and the Middle East are so hot during summer 11 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: that you don't go outside without risking heat stroker death, 12 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: hundreds of millions of climate refugees. When I say, like, 13 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 1: we're going to get to our best case scenario, that's 14 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: the best case scenario that I'm describing. It's not optimism 15 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 1: by anybody's compactional definition. Is just optimism compared to like 16 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: what actually looked possible a few years ago. And you know, ultimately, 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: I think the only intellectually response able perspective is to 18 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: try to hold those two facts in your mind at once. 19 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: To say things inevitably will be grim. We will have 20 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 1: to be doing an enormous amount of adaptation to allow 21 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 1: ourselves any promise of human flowers fishing in even the 22 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: best case scenario. But also changes have been made and 23 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: will be made in the in the next few years 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: and then certainly in the next decades that allow us 25 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: to avert a lot of even bleaker, even grimmer on futures. 26 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: And you know, I think both of those things are true. 27 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: Whether you tend to, whether you you know your impulse 28 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: is to place your sort of emotional weight on the 29 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: first fact of the second is really more matter of 30 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: personal temperament, I think than it is about um. The 31 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: facts on the ground. The facts on the ground say 32 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: that you know, basically, if even a few years ago 33 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: it was defensible to say we could achieve one point 34 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: five degrees, but also a business as usual was four 35 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: and a half degrees, we're now looking at a much 36 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: narrower window where unless we're really surprised by climate sensitivity, 37 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: which may be something we could talk about, also that 38 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: we're looking at something like the range of two to 39 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: three two degrees to three degrees, and that's like, um, 40 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: we have a much clearer idea of where we're gonna 41 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: end up. I would say I'm you know, one of 42 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: the things when you when you lay out as you 43 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: do very very um very well, the what that actually means, 44 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: what two degrees means, like what that means in human 45 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 1: cost um. I have to think that there's going to 46 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 1: be an increasing desire to uh punish the people particularly 47 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 1: who were responsible for like the different kind of disinformation 48 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: campaigns that have persisted over the last couple of decades. 49 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: I don't know how much political attraction I expect those 50 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: to get um, but one of the things we do 51 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: we are going to be talking about is like the 52 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: potential of sort of a climate Nuremberg. And I'm wondering 53 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: if you if you think that's even a productive avenue 54 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: of thought or is it kind of one of those 55 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: there's there's so much is it a situation where I 56 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: guess I'm just interested if you if you've thought about 57 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: that in any way yourself, or if you think that's 58 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 1: just not a particular the productive line of thought to 59 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: go down, Well, I think it's um an intellectually rewarding 60 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: way of thinking about the problem. Whether it has practical 61 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: real world upside, I'm a little more ambivalent about, but 62 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 1: I would say, you know, there are two sets of 63 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: issues that you're talking about. There is, did companies like 64 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: Exxon and Shell delay action on climate change by shaping 65 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: our sense of urgency around the climate crisis and buying 66 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: off politicians in a way that meaningfully change the trajectory 67 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: of global warming? If so, to what degree and to 68 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: what degree should they be held responsible to me? That 69 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that like those companies should be pulverized, 70 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 1: you know that, like they should be um even just 71 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: from a practical perspective, put aside the morality, like we 72 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: need to stop producing fossil fuels, like those companies should 73 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: not continue to be in that business. I think it's 74 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: also worth pointing out that many of the biggest oil 75 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 1: companies in the world are state owned, not private enterprises. 76 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: But I also think there's the sort of separate question, 77 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: which is countries of the world. The United States has 78 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: benefited enormously from the cheap energy produced from the burning 79 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: of fossil fuels like that had That explains a lot 80 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,679 Speaker 1: of how we became the dominant power in the world. 81 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: Um And one amazing thing about carbon is that it 82 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: hangs in the atmosphere for at least three hundred years, 83 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: which means that every single ounce of carbon that has 84 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 1: ever been produced in the entire history of industrialization is 85 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: still in the air heating the planet today, UM, which 86 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 1: means that the climate doesn't care if that coal is 87 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: being burned in you know she Jin Pings China, or 88 00:04:54,279 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: Frederick Engels Manchester, or you know Abraham Lincoln's United States, 89 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 1: they are all having the equal effect. And that we 90 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 1: should think about the impact of past emissions when thinking 91 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: about responsibility for the crisis, um, as much as we 92 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: think about how to shape future emissions. UM. You know, 93 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 1: I think the climate reparations as an idea is very powerful. 94 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: I think, um, you know, countries like the US have 95 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: profited from this technology is one way to think of it, 96 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: that will be punishing, um those in the developing world 97 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: who have benefited considerably less, considerably more. Even from a 98 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 1: practical like how do we stabilize the world's system and 99 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 1: our geopolitics point of view, I think it makes sense 100 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: for the wealthy countries in the world to support the 101 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: poorer countries in their efforts both to decarbonize and to adapt. 102 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: There is some amount of that being negotiated now, although 103 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: I think it's woefully inadequate, And you know, it's something 104 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: I'm working on at the moment, but you you really 105 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 1: can sort of put a dollar figure on exactly what 106 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: like the U s O S in this context, because 107 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: we know how much it cost to take carbon out 108 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: of the air. So if you take a price of 109 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: like fifty dollars a ton, then the US basically has 110 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: a climate reparations bill of like trillion dollars um, which 111 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: is two and a half times what China's does, which 112 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: is the second biggest country. And I do think that 113 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: that's also really important to keep in mind when people 114 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: talk about China. China is an incredibly important player going forward, 115 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 1: but because of the weird timeline bending nature of carbon emissions, 116 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,359 Speaker 1: like the US is still much more important that we 117 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 1: The US brought us to the brink. It's just China 118 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: that's at risk of pushing us over the brink. And 119 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: on the company front, I'm supportive of lawsuits that are 120 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 1: that are already going forward on these issues, and those 121 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: lawsuits that are going forward that obligate particular companies to 122 00:06:58,160 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: behave in ways that are in line with the goals 123 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: in the Paris Agreement. I think that those are useful 124 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: I think I'm a little maybe a little less comfortable 125 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 1: attributing so much responsibility for the current crisis to the 126 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: villainy of those companies, although I don't deny that they've 127 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: been villainous in the sense that we really have been 128 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: voting with our you know, with our dollars on this 129 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: for a long time, UM, and I do think that 130 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: most people have, you know, or as a society, as 131 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: a civilization, we've chosen to continue using fossil fuels basically 132 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 1: because they were they provided cheaper energy than any other option. 133 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: That's not to say that there's been no effect, um, 134 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: from the disinformation campaigns. I think there has been an effect. 135 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: But if you rewind that history and don't engage in 136 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: that disinformation, I have a hard time believing even if 137 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: you're just like looking at the cost of renewable power, 138 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: I have a hard time imagine in the US like 139 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: embarking on a major renewable push like in the year 140 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: or two thousand, of the scale that's possible now because 141 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: of the changing market dynamics there. So, you know, another 142 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: way of looking at the same issue is um, you know, 143 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: climate denial is I would say it's no longer really 144 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: alive anywhere. It's no longer really alive in the US. 145 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: But it was much more pronounced in the US in 146 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: American politics than any other country in the world for 147 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 1: a very long time, aside from maybe Australia. And it 148 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: wasn't like those other countries were decarbonizing much much faster 149 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: than we were. Um they maybe we're a little bit 150 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: in parts of Scandinavia, um Like Denmark has done a 151 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: bit better, the UK has done better over the last 152 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: five or ten years in the U S. But like 153 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: in general, we're all sort of on the same track together, 154 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: Which makes me think that a lot of these dynamics, 155 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: at least to this point, are much more the result 156 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: of um social and cultural forces than they are direct 157 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: fossil fuel disinformation and denial campaigns. But you know, that's 158 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: not to say that I think that those people should 159 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 1: be let off the hook, um in the same way 160 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: that the cigarette company cigarette companies were held to account 161 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: for their decades of disinformation. I just also think, like 162 00:08:58,280 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: the son of a guy who died of lung cancer, 163 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: like I don't think that like the cigarette company is 164 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: to blame for my dad's death. Like I just don't, um, 165 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: like I'm glad that they're I'm glad that they had 166 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: to pay those fines. I'm glad that they were, like, 167 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: you know, to some degree, push to the edge of bankruptcy. 168 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: I'm glad that cigarette smoking is not nearly as dad 169 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: a force in our culture and our public health and 170 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: it used to be. But I also think that there 171 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: is like I don't know, to point the finger neatly 172 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 1: at that, at those like ten big companies or whatever. 173 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: I just think it's a little simplistic and lets us 174 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: all off the hook. But I do think that's another 175 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: big story. Here is the way in which, as the 176 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: crisis unfolds, many more people will want to see themselves 177 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: as blameless UM and not be willing to really see 178 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: clearly that the role that they played or those that 179 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: they loved played in exacerbating the problem, even if just 180 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: through UM by living in complacency and denial for too long. Yeah. Yeah, 181 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: you probably just no, no, no, it is like that. 182 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: That's the thing though, it is it is UM. I 183 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: can cut again. You can hold two things in your head, 184 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: which is that UM, the attempts to mislead people and 185 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: alter the public conversation around climate change through bad data, 186 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: we're criminal UM. And also that fundamentally the damage was 187 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: done by our desire to continue living a certain lifestyle. 188 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 1: And we knew that and and and past a certain point, especially, 189 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: we knew that it would continue to like we kept 190 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: buying the cars, we kept orienting our societies in such 191 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: a way, we kept consuming and putting carbon into the atmosphere. 192 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: And it is this question of Okay, if you're saying, 193 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: in the United States, I want to hold ex On 194 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: Mobile and Chevron accountable, Well, then who who's holding you 195 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: accountable for the fact that you, as an American, were 196 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: responsible for a vastly greater amount of environmental degradation than 197 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: somebody living in Kuala Lumpur. Yeah. I think Also it's 198 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: you know, we have this like in part because of 199 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: the cultural changes that have unfolded over the last fe years. 200 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: These are not like the world's richest companies and or 201 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 1: and so like liquidate liquidating them just like simply does 202 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 1: it from just like a like the perspective of UM 203 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 1: finding capital that will help us in this fight, like 204 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: liquidating these companies simply doesn't get us nearly as far 205 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: as it might have twenty or thirty years ago. I 206 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: think that there is a moral case for closing them down. 207 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: I think there's a practical place case for literally just 208 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: closing them down. UM. I think we should try to 209 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: pursue that UM. But I also think that you know, 210 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 1: it's like you take all Bill Gates's money away, like 211 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: it's not like people in stuff Saharan Africa are going 212 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:35,439 Speaker 1: to be millionaires. It's just like there isn't that much 213 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: money to go around, and the same that's true of 214 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: the fossil field companies. But you know, I do think, UM, 215 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: I do think there needs to be a kind of 216 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: UM mechanism for capital redistribution UM in the service of 217 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: decarbonization and UM climate resilience. I think that that is 218 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: a very very urgent moral demands that the climate of 219 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: the future is making of us, Which is to say, 220 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: you know, let's try to treat hundreds of millions of 221 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: people living in Bangladesh near the coast like they were living, 222 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: you know, on the Gulf coast of the US, and 223 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: treat their lives with as much give their lives as 224 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:24,679 Speaker 1: much significance, and UM, do the same level of things 225 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 1: that we would want to do for our distant relatives 226 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: to protect their lives and livelihoods there to name one example. 227 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it's not just like there's one 228 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: place to deal with it. But they can't even get 229 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: a hundred billion dollars out of the G seven to 230 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: you know, to the developing world. I think we're gonna 231 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: need considerably more than that going forward. Yeah, I've been 232 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: reading the book Disposable City by Mario Riza, which is 233 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: about Miami, and like the fact that Miami is doomed 234 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: and less things actions are taken in order to make 235 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: it survivable in the future. And I kept thinking throughout 236 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: that process because it's a very good book, I think, 237 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: very well written. But also just like all of these 238 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: problems are going to be commen certainly more severe for 239 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 1: people living in huge chunks of Southeast Asia the form 240 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: much larger population than Miami, but we will never have 241 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: the resources dedicated towards them, and they're also it's also 242 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: the case that a lot of the solutions that we 243 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 1: we think of here are not available there in the 244 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: sense that you know, there was a big study that 245 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: came out maybe six or nine months ago looking at 246 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: what it would mean to for land use in the 247 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,839 Speaker 1: US to be to really decarbonize the power sector through 248 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 1: wind and solar, and you know, it's it was significant. 249 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: It was like it was it was not it's not 250 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:42,839 Speaker 1: like half the country, but it was like, I think 251 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: we had to do something like we had to use 252 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: like a couple of multiples of the land of North 253 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: Dakota um to like get to a total totally zero 254 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,839 Speaker 1: carbon electricity sector, and like you can't do that in Indonesia. 255 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: They're just that amount of land. And what does that mean? 256 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,559 Speaker 1: Is that an argument for nuclear? Is that an argument 257 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: for you know, a lot more offshore? You know, like 258 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: it's not exactly clear, but we also we have there 259 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: are many ways in which Americans thinking about climate change 260 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: suffer from a national narcissism and really think that the 261 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: whole global problem is our problem. But um, the challenge 262 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: is really different everywhere, both on the adaptation side on 263 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: the mitigation side, and you know, in a lot of 264 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: places it's going to be just tricky to figure out. 265 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: And the more that we can do as you know, 266 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: those with more, um, the more I don't know, it's 267 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: not quite well. I'm sure we're never going to be 268 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: behaving in ways that that are actually moral in this issue, 269 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: but maybe like approaching some kind of morality, you know, Garrison, 270 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: did you have anything else you wanted to get into UM? Yeah, 271 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: I can maybe talk about what you think the future 272 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: of international coalitions are going to be in terms of 273 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: like the different summits UM what you know, the different 274 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: ways the u N might try to do stuff. Yeah, 275 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: like how how do you see the effectiveness or maybe 276 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: not even effectiveness, but like just how do you see 277 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 1: that impacting UM people's perception of what's going to happen? 278 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: And then you know, if if you think that has 279 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: any chance of making things better at all, well, you 280 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: know what. The the examples that I used in the 281 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: book I think are still UM. The ones that I 282 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: come back to, which is UM the way that the 283 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: post World War two international order, which was led primarily 284 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: by the USUM, treated the issues of human rights and 285 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: free markets, which were never like handed over to a 286 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: particular political authority to police around the world, but which 287 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 1: became universal enough values that they could be invoked as 288 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: reasons to intervene in other countries, to invade other countries, 289 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: to bully other countries in you know, in UM trade negotiations, 290 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: and you know, oftentimes they were covers for what we're 291 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: basically just national self interest, you know, calling something human 292 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: rights issue so that you could open a market or whatever. 293 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: But on the whole, I think they did sort of 294 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: successfully promote both of those values over the course of 295 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: those fifty years. You know, not to say that markets 296 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: are unequal a value that we should value as much 297 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: as we value human rights. But we saw you know, 298 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 1: globally a changing culture of geopolitics sort of as a result, 299 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: and the tools that were used not just by the US, 300 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: but especially by the US in promoting that change. We're 301 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: really diverse. Like sometimes we did go to war. Sometimes 302 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: we just argued about stuff in the u N. Sometimes 303 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: we you know, put sanctions on countries and refused to 304 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: trade with them because we consider them, you know, to 305 00:16:55,880 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: be behaving immorally. Sometimes we finance clandestine wars like where 306 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: our CIA agents trained. You know, we did a whole 307 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: lot of different ship in the name of those values. 308 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: Um and I sort of suspect we're likely to see 309 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: the same thing unfold with climate, where it becomes a 310 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 1: sort of first order value of the global system. And 311 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that there is a independent climate change 312 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 1: authority with you know, some kind of you know that 313 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: that can like throw leaders in jail for behaving badly, 314 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,160 Speaker 1: that I can go into Brazil and arrest jar Balsonaro 315 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 1: or something. Um, I don't think that's all that likely. 316 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: But I think that we start, we start to talk 317 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: about power dynamics um as in ways that are inflected 318 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: at least with climate considerations. And I think we're already 319 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: starting to see that. You know, the way that the 320 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: EU is talking about um it's border adjustment carbon tax. 321 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: There's a similar proposal now in the in the US 322 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: really suggests that we're already embedding climate values in what 323 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 1: were once quite coldly calculated trade deals. You know, there 324 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: was a couple of years ago there was that back 325 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 1: and forth about the fires in the amaz On where 326 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 1: where Emmanuel mccron threatened to pull out of a major 327 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 1: trade deal with with Brazil over the fires and like 328 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 1: you didn't totally come to pass. But um, that sort 329 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: of power dynamic I think is quite um, you know, 330 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 1: quite present on the world stage already. Now. The question 331 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: is ultimately like who's doing the policing, who's empowered to 332 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: enforce these values and one of their own what's their 333 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 1: own record? You know, at the moment, the US, I think, 334 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: is not really in a position to lecture anybody. And 335 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: to some degree, you know, in a certain light, China 336 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: has a certain amount of um, you know, moral authority 337 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 1: here because they've they've invested so aggressively and um green technologies. 338 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: But they also have the opposite problem, which is that 339 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 1: they are still wearing a ton of coal. And I 340 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: don't really know, you know, there's been a lot of 341 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 1: I don't really know how that dynamic will play out. 342 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 1: I just think it's hard to imagine a geopolitics going 343 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: forward that doesn't center climate change in the same way 344 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 1: that some of these other values have been centered. But 345 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 1: what I do think is very clear is that the 346 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: U N based treaty framework is probably at most a 347 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: partial component of this dynamic and not the whole of it. 348 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: Um you know, all of I mentioned this earlier, but 349 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: all of the net zero pledges we've seen over the 350 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: last couple of years, all of them have been done 351 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 1: totally outside of the you know, the Paris Framework and 352 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 1: the UN framework. It's not the US are China going 353 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 1: around and telling India that they need to up their 354 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: ambition at all. It's you know, all of these countries 355 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: coming to the realization that it is in their self 356 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: interest to decarbonize, and that is I think a likelier 357 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: path forward than one in which these things are negotiated 358 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 1: country to country. And I think it's frankly a lot 359 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: healthier because for a long time, climate diplomacy was conducted 360 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: under the anxiety of UM the collective action problem, which 361 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 1: is to say that, you know, the US goes to 362 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: zero carbon tomorrow, functionally, its climate will go will be 363 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: unchanged over the rest of the century, even even a 364 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 1: huge amount of like the US UM compared you know, 365 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: if nobody else does anything. And so everybody's just sort 366 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: of waiting around, waiting for someone else to to act, 367 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: because they think the cost of acting nationally or locally 368 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: is born nationally and locally, but the benefit of acting 369 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 1: nationally or locally is carried around the world. Now, I 370 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: think that is no longer the paradigm. I think that's 371 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: the reason why we're seeing all of these new nation, 372 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,360 Speaker 1: new national pledges outside of the framework of paris UM. 373 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: I think that's in part because we have a clear 374 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,880 Speaker 1: understanding of the damages of climate change. I think it's 375 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: also really we're having We're getting a much clearer sense 376 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 1: of the burdens of help from air pollution, from the 377 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 1: burden of fossil fuels, And so when you're doing your 378 00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: even like your crudest um cost benefit analysis, it seems 379 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: really obvious that decarbonizing is worth it independent of the 380 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: climate benefits. And you know that's true in the US. 381 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: Dru Sian dell Is, this great professor at Duke, has 382 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: calculated that the health benefits of decarbonizing the American electricity 383 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: sector would entirely pay for themselves. It would entirely pay 384 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: for the project. Um. You don't have to factor in 385 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: any climate benefit at all. It's just like through cleaner air, 386 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 1: it would be paid for by itself. I think many 387 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: more countries around the world are seeing things that way, 388 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: and that's why they're beginning to move more quickly. And 389 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: even though that's like a a sign that the geopolitics 390 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 1: is abandoning some of its moral pretense um and returning 391 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 1: to something that amounts to a more naked, even quasi 392 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:53,920 Speaker 1: like capitalistic um mercenary set of values, I also think 393 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 1: that it I have a sort of easier time trusting 394 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: the progress will happen in that context, if every country 395 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 1: thinks that, um, they're people will be better off if 396 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: their economy is greener. I don't think we're gonna do 397 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: it fast enough, but I think the progress is is 398 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: on the way. The last thing I wanna maybe discuss 399 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: a little bit is the future of carbon capture and 400 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: geo engineering, specifically with you know, Bezos and Mosk and 401 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: other people doing more space stuff. Um, and just yeah, 402 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: seeing how the likelihood and how much you think it 403 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 1: will affect things when they start messing with the atmosphere 404 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 1: or if you think they're going to go that route, 405 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 1: because I know Basos talked a bit about that in 406 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,400 Speaker 1: terms of like moving stuff into space for like pollution 407 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,199 Speaker 1: and stuff. Yeah, I mean your chapter on g on 408 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: geo engineering was really good. Um, in my opinion, I 409 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: thought that would gave a really good overview of the 410 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: terrible double edged sword that that is. And yeah, with 411 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: with all the space stuff, how do you see those 412 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: kind of things coming to pass the next few years. 413 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna geo engineering in particular, and solar 414 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: radiation management, which is the sort of most common way 415 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: that people talk about it, which is suspending soultware in 416 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: the atmosphere that reflects on that. I think that that's 417 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: going to become a much bigger part of the conversation UM, 418 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 1: And personally, I would like to see more research. I'm 419 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 1: not of the I'm skeptical of this as a useful solution, 420 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 1: but I think it's worth testing and steeing. And I 421 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: don't think you know, at the moment, there's still basically 422 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,119 Speaker 1: like a global gag order on even figuring out what 423 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 1: it would mean. And I think that that's really counterproductive actually, 424 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: that we should have a clearer sense of what the 425 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: costs and benefits of doing it are. UM. The people 426 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 1: who I admire most, who are supportive say this isn't 427 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: a permanent solution. If we imagine a century from now 428 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 1: or seventy five years from now, technological advance is sufficient 429 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 1: to remove carbon from the atmosphere at scale being run 430 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,439 Speaker 1: cheaply and efficiently, and I don't think that's a crazy 431 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 1: thing to imagine on that time scale. What we really 432 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 1: need to do is sort of protect ourselves for a 433 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: period of time, for a generation or so, until those 434 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,199 Speaker 1: things can come online and really make a difference in 435 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 1: the in the atmosphere. That seems like a plausible argument 436 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 1: to me. Um Like, I'm certainly not ready to endorse 437 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: it because I think we really just don't know actually 438 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: much of what the effects would be. Um But I 439 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: think any you know, it sort of depends on what 440 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,880 Speaker 1: you're hoped for goal is. But any project of decarbonization 441 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: or just say climate action that is built entirely around 442 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 1: wind and solar power is not going to get us 443 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,120 Speaker 1: to stay below two degrees UM. And if you think 444 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 1: that living a two degrees is going to be really tough, 445 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: maybe there are some other ways to make it a 446 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 1: little less tough. Now, I think I'm sounding at the 447 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: moment more supportive geo engineering than I really am. But 448 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: I just think in general, like this problem was too 449 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 1: big to dismiss any partial solution out of hand. On 450 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 1: carbon capture, I'm you know, I'm more supportive at the 451 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 1: theoretical level, and my objections are primarily practical, which is 452 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: to say, you know, at the moment, we have these 453 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 1: machines that do this. You know, they can do this already. 454 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 1: It's kind of expensive, but it's not impossibly expensive. But 455 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 1: to use them to even counteract the emissions that are 456 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 1: today produced by the hardest to de carbonized parts of 457 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: the economy, namely heavy industry and jet travel would require 458 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 1: through these machines, would require something like a third to 459 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: a half of today's global energy production. On top of 460 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: which we need to find a place to build these 461 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: huge industrial plantations. We have to find a find a 462 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:01,199 Speaker 1: place to store all that carbon um. You know, estimates 463 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 1: suggest we might need an infrastructure two to four times 464 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: the size of today's oil and gas business. And that's 465 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: not to like make it so we can drive gas 466 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 1: cars longer. It's literally like the hardest. If we decarbonize 467 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 1: as rapidly as the i p C says we they 468 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 1: want us to cutting in a half our emissions, they 469 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,359 Speaker 1: say we're still going to need a carbon capture or 470 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: at least a negative emissions infrastructure as much as four 471 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 1: times the size of today's oil and gas business. And 472 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 1: of course there's no market for that that carbon at all, um, 473 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: which means you would have to be entirely state funded 474 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 1: unless someone comes up with a with a market for it. Um. 475 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: So my, you know, on top of that, there are 476 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 1: objections to land use. Um. They're sort of likely nimby 477 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: issues um. And while it's tempting to turn instead too 478 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 1: you know, natural negative emissions with a far station. It's 479 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 1: estimated that to do the same just again for this 480 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 1: sort of sliver of emissions that are the hardest to decarbonized, 481 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 1: would require land being used something like the scale of 482 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 1: between five and fifteen times the size of Texas UM 483 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,439 Speaker 1: just for this purpose. So we're talking about like in 484 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: either of these cases, either like sucking, like sucking up 485 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 1: a huge chunk of what today's energy system produces, or 486 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 1: using an enormous amount of the planet's land in order 487 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,479 Speaker 1: to deal with only a tiny sliver of the problem 488 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 1: through either of these technologies. Now, my hope is that 489 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 1: fifty years from now, seventy five years from now, hundred 490 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: years from now, UM, we'll have a lot more options 491 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: for how to take carbon out of the atmosphere. Um 492 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 1: we can, we'll be able to do it much more efficiently, 493 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 1: both in terms of energy and in terms of land use. 494 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 1: And I think there are some things that are encouraging 495 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,679 Speaker 1: that are sort of early stage m R and D 496 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 1: that we're at sort of early stage on R and 497 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 1: D on but the scale of the problem is just 498 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 1: so large that we can't believe that they're going to 499 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 1: do our work for us. It really will be like 500 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: over the time scale of our lifetimes, it will be 501 00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 1: a marginal solution that allows us to um decarbonized really hard, 502 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 1: to de carbonized sectors a little more slowly. UM and 503 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 1: maybe on a time scale of two centuries, it'll that'll 504 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,920 Speaker 1: allow us to like revert to an earlier climate and 505 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 1: stabilize things back at you know, something like parts per million, 506 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 1: although who knows how possible that is. Briefly on that note, UM, 507 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: we want to talk about the like the actual long 508 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 1: term impacts, like how the pollution that we're doing and 509 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: the emissions that we're doing now is gonna impact stuff 510 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: three years from now. Do you have anything to say 511 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 1: because like that that that's stif aspect. He's not talked 512 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 1: about as much because of how urgent it is for 513 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 1: people who are living now. We have a lot of 514 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: problems to deal with the fact that you know, we 515 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: don't talk about, you know, the farther future. It's something 516 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 1: I worry about a lot, because all of our models 517 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: are basically to the hundred and nothing goes beyond them. UM, 518 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: And I think there is some reason to worry that 519 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 1: we're not really capturing some slower processes and feedbacks that 520 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: may add considerably to our level of warming, even if 521 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: we get to zero emissions sometimes this century. Of course, 522 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 1: the impact some of the impact are essentially irreversible. You know, 523 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 1: the term tipping point gets used a lot. I think 524 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: often it's used a little misleadingly because it's not like 525 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 1: you're gonna wake up, you know, on a Tuesday and 526 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: the planets is going to be completely different than it 527 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 1: was on that Monday. But what it really means is that, 528 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 1: like we're going to enter into a new state with 529 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 1: a variety of these impacts that we won't be able 530 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: to return to the old one. Um. The melting of 531 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,680 Speaker 1: the ice sheets is probably the most dramatic of those, 532 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 1: and you know, it's based it's estimated that somewhere north 533 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: of two degrees we we probably lock that into inevitability. 534 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: And that means over time, you know, something like two 535 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 1: d two hundred feet of sea level rise. UM. Now, 536 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 1: we don't expect that would take place even on the 537 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 1: time scale of centuries. It would probably take millennial or more. 538 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 1: But it means that the choices that we're making now 539 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,480 Speaker 1: are really going to live on for an incredibly long time, 540 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 1: I mean thousands of years and UM That's another reason 541 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,000 Speaker 1: why they're so consequential. You know, some of the ecosystem 542 00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 1: loss um that we're going through is irreversible. You simply 543 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 1: can't recreate those things by design. And you know, even 544 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: thinking about wildfires in the in the in the West, 545 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 1: the fire scientists I talked to, you know, they're they're 546 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: all really reluctant to talk about fire even in the 547 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 1: second half of the twentieth century because they expected by 548 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 1: so much of the region will have burned, and they 549 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: don't know what kind of plant life is going to 550 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 1: grow back in that, you know, among those ashes, so 551 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: they don't know how to model it. It's like, is 552 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 1: it this kind of a tree, is that this is 553 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: a eucalyptus? Is an ash? You know, it's like um 554 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 1: And that's kind of amazing to think about, just like that. 555 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 1: You know, when we think of the landscape as permanent 556 00:30:55,480 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 1: and human intrusion as possibly transient, but we are engineering 557 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,600 Speaker 1: changes to the land um that will make many of 558 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,360 Speaker 1: the things that we think of as you know, the 559 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 1: iconic features of a place like California totally disappear within 560 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 1: the space of our lifetime. And you know, perhaps the 561 00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: most dramatic of these impacts would be if if the 562 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 1: Amazon were to enter into a divec state and turn 563 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,960 Speaker 1: into something like a savannah, which is you know, some 564 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: scientists think is quite possible, maybe even in relatively short 565 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: time scales. But more importantly, as you know that there 566 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 1: would be no time scale for recovery, that we would 567 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: have lost it forever as a as a rainforest, and 568 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,720 Speaker 1: with it a huge capacity for carbon absorption and a 569 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: lot of the world's oxygen. So yeah, it's it's it 570 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 1: gets it gets scarier when you look past, even though 571 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 1: what's happening the century is scary enough. Yeah, that's all 572 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about. Yeah, that's the I'm planning 573 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,400 Speaker 1: a trip down there in the not too distant future, 574 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,840 Speaker 1: and it's kind of hard to overstate the importance of 575 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 1: not reaching that point, and also the difficulty of knowing 576 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 1: if we already have not good news coming out of 577 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 1: that region right now. I mean the slightly positive, slightly 578 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 1: good or part of the news is that what we're 579 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: doing now. I mean, there's a big report a couple 580 00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: of weeks ago those you know, more carbon's coming out 581 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 1: of the Amazon and going into it, which is terrifying. 582 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 1: But that is because we're deforesting and burning. It's not 583 00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 1: because of Yeah, theoretically, if we change policy there, we 584 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: could you know, we could stop that. Um. There is 585 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 1: a point though, at which the climate changing itself will 586 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: be producing similar effects and that will be considerably more alarming. Well, David, 587 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,320 Speaker 1: you've been incredibly generous with your time. Thank you very 588 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 1: much for talking with us today. Now my pleasure great 589 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 1: to talk to you guys. And with that, that is 590 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 1: the end of our interview with David Wallace Wells. You 591 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: can find him on Twitter at d Wallace Wells. You 592 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 1: can find his book The Uninhabited Earth and you know 593 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 1: probably probably some local bookstores. I know you can get 594 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: it online that's where I got it. Um. And you 595 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,720 Speaker 1: can follow this podcast of Happen Here pod and Cool 596 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,719 Speaker 1: Zone Media on Twitter. UM. I think we have Instagrams 597 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 1: for those two, but I don't use that. You can 598 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 1: follow me at Hungry bow Tie and you can follow 599 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 1: Robert at I Right. Okay, thanks for listening. Stay tuned 600 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 1: next week for more It could Happen Here daily