1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola, and we have a very 3 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:09,039 Speaker 1: special guest today joining us to break down the NBA 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:14,319 Speaker 1: Finals and Stanley Cup Conference Finals. It is none other 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: than Scott's Spritzer of Doc Sports. 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 2: Scott, how are you doing today? 7 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:19,759 Speaker 3: I'm doing great, Thomas. Thanks for having me on the 8 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 3: show Man. 9 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 2: It is an absolute pleasure to have you. It's been great. 10 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: I know it's been a while since I've seen you personally, 11 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: even though we're both out here in Vegas. We got 12 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: to catch up sometime soon. But right now, it's one 13 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 1: of the best times in sports. 14 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 2: We've got. 15 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: We've got the playoffs in full swing. We're at the end. Now, 16 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 1: we're at the end of the line. It's the NBA 17 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: Finals Game one this Thursday, the Warriors versus the Celtics. 18 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: I had the Warriors peck from the preseason as my 19 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 1: Finals winners. Unfortunately for me, I didn't take out on 20 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: a ticket on it when I could get a decent price, 21 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: and well, now here we are. Should have stuck to 22 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: my guns. But Celtics a little bit of a surprise 23 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: to make it to this point almost I feel like, 24 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: I think they match up fairly well here. 25 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 2: What are you seeing in the series? 26 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Celtics. You know, they were basically 27 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 3: a five hundred team for a good chunk of the 28 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 3: first half of the season, and then really caught fire 29 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 3: and everybody started believing in this coaching staff, started picking 30 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 3: their roles and sticking to them, and here they are. 31 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 3: And in fact, if you look, because of that great 32 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 3: run since the break, they became one of two NBA 33 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 3: teams Thomas to finish in the top five in both 34 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 3: offensive and defensive efficiency this season. The other was the 35 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 3: Phoenix Suns, who obviously flamed out in their playoff series. 36 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 3: But when I look at the Celtics and I see 37 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 3: that the price is around plus a buck forty plus 38 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 3: a buck fifty in that neighborhood. As far as the series, 39 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 3: I think they are the value here. I think there's 40 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,559 Speaker 3: a good shot that they can steal a game here 41 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 3: at Golden State. I don't think they're going to win 42 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 3: game one, by the way, and we can talk about 43 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 3: the individual game in just a minute, but I think 44 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 3: stealing game two is a distinct possibility for this team, 45 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 3: and of course I would not be shocked if they 46 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 3: win Game one. But when I look at the full series, 47 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 3: I mean everything Golden State wants to do when they 48 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 3: have to go a little bit bigger to counter what 49 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 3: Boston can do with their bigs, Boston just can do better. 50 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 3: I mean, you're talking about guys who normally play a 51 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 3: big game as opposed to what Golden State's doing. So 52 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 3: you're talking like, for instance, when you look at Looney, 53 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 3: for example, for Golden State, you know they've got Robert Williams, 54 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 3: the third, They've got Al Horford. These guys, you know, 55 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 3: can each take their turns slowing down Looney. In fact, 56 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 3: they can go probably three or four deep. When you 57 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 3: throw in like Grant Williams in a thing into the mix, 58 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 3: they can actually go deeper to help slow down Looney. 59 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 3: If anybody gets in foul trouble, the Boston biggs, and 60 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 3: I think a guy like Looney and of course a 61 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 3: couple of other players like Pool Wiggins, they all have 62 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 3: to take their game to that next level. Thomas, I 63 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 3: really believe that if they're going to win this series, 64 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 3: and then you got Marcus Smart And I'm not the 65 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 3: first one to say this, It's been reported a few times, 66 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 3: but when you're talking about a defender who plays on 67 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 3: a an opposing player, the closest defender in that metric, 68 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 3: Steph Curry struggles against Marcus Smart, hitting twenty nine percent 69 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 3: of his field goal attempts. That's the lowest he shoots 70 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 3: against any defender in the NBA. And so when you 71 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 3: look at Marcus Smart, if he stays healthy throughout this series, 72 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 3: he's going to spend a lot of time chasing out 73 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 3: and stuff, and he's proven he can handle the job. 74 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 3: So from a series standpoint, Man Tatum Brown that combo 75 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 3: I saw stat today, Thomas that those two, at the 76 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 3: age of twenty five or younger, have more playoff wins 77 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 3: as an all star combined combo than anybody in the 78 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 3: history of the NBA, including Magic and James Worthy. I mean, 79 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 3: that's some pretty serious stuff. So they get over the 80 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 3: knack of experience in the finals and that big experience 81 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 3: advantage that Golden State has, maybe have a little tough 82 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 3: time in Game one, and then come back to win 83 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 3: the series. For me, I'm actually waiting. I want to 84 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: see if I can get a Golden State win in 85 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 3: Game one and then come back and play Boston in 86 00:03:58,120 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: the series. After that, with a little bit bigger price. 87 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: I completely agree with your analysis here. I'm personally still 88 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: on Golden State to win the series. But when I 89 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: came into this, I was looking at that series with 90 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: Miami for the Celtics, and I think, just like everyone 91 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: else in the public, I was wholly unimpressed with the 92 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: fact that they couldn't put the Heat away. It felt 93 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: like they should have been able to handle them sooner. 94 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: And we get to this matchup and I'm like, Okay, well, 95 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: Warriors are going to sweep them. And then I started 96 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: looking at the stats just like you said, and you 97 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: have to go, hang on a second. This team matches 98 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: up really, really well with Golden State in a way 99 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: that we haven't seen in the last round. Because the Mavericks, 100 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: they were really able to do exactly what they want, 101 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: and that's play small ball and still win the rebound game. 102 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: You're not gonna be able to do that against this 103 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: Boston team. And the matchup to me looks a lot 104 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: more like their matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies round prior. 105 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: That recency bias makes us kind of forget now. The 106 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: Grizzlies up very nearly came out with that series the 107 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 1: matchup is very bad for the Warriors. I still kind 108 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 1: of like them to win in six. They're still going 109 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: to be my pick. I think that, like you said, 110 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 1: that experience they have, they're able to get it done. 111 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: But this isn't going to be a walkaway series like 112 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 1: some people are thinking. 113 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been a six game series for Golden State. 114 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 3: You're probably talking at least probably four of those games 115 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 3: being close, you know, at least maybe more maybe all 116 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 3: six games. So if they do win, I do think, 117 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 3: just like a Boston wins, there's going to be some 118 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 3: close games involved. And you know, one thing you mentioned 119 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,239 Speaker 3: about Dallas, they kind of had their way with Dallas 120 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 3: Golden State and that's something they have not faced in 121 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 3: this postseason is a lob two guy on the offensive 122 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 3: end in the paint, and if Robert Williams the third 123 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 3: is able to stay healthy, this will be the first 124 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 3: time they face that in the entire postseason. Now, Golden 125 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 3: State and Steve Kerr have so much experience that they 126 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 3: could probably, you know, if anybody can, they can figure 127 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 3: out a way to overcome seeing something brand new that 128 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 3: they haven't faced in this particular postseason. But that's something 129 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 3: they're gonna have to deal with. Also to be interesting 130 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 3: to see how that works out, because Robert Williams, the 131 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 3: third is that guy. You could take those lobs on 132 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 3: offensive end the paint and do things that Golden State 133 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 3: has yet to see. The kind of break I thought 134 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 3: with Dallas Thomas, I really did think Dallas would make 135 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 3: it there. I thought that was more of the ineptitude 136 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 3: of what Dallas faced before playing Golden State more than 137 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 3: it was the Dallas mavericks. I'm not one of those 138 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 3: guys who jumps on Luca Doncic and says, oh, he 139 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 3: doesn't play defense. I think Luka Doncics is a decent 140 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 3: defensive player. Obviously, he's all world. When it comes to 141 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 3: the offensive end, that team needs another playmaker. Brunson came 142 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 3: and went, you know in that series, So, yeah, this 143 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 3: is going to be the toughest test, yes, yet, obviously 144 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 3: for the Warriors and for the Celtics too. But you know, 145 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 3: I thought that the fact that they have such a 146 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 3: disadvantage and experience. Remember now Boston's combined players, starters and 147 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 3: bench have zero experience when it comes to the finals. 148 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 3: Not a single player on this team has stuffed on 149 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 3: the court in an NBA Finals, and because of that, 150 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 3: I decided to make it a seven game series of 151 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 3: my prediction with Boston rather than a six game So, 152 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 3: you know, maybe I'm getting a little bit too excited 153 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 3: here on watching these matchups. Thomas. Golden State eventually does 154 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 3: come through, but again, I'm gonna wait and see what 155 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 3: happens in Game one. If I can get Boston at 156 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: a even a bigger price. If they lose Game one, 157 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 3: then I'll be jumping on them for the series. 158 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: And I'm looking here at some of these at some 159 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: of these potential predictions. DraftKings has the Warriors in seven 160 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: at plus three ten. That's actually their favorite outcome for 161 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: this series. Here, they have Boston winning in Boston winning 162 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: in seven is plus six point fifty. 163 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 2: Right now. You can get the. 164 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: Warriors in six at plus five point fifty in Boston 165 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: and six at plus three seventy. So they're definitely expecting 166 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: a long series here, just like you are. 167 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think that's the way it's gonna go. 168 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 3: I think if Golden State wins the series, they're just 169 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 3: they're gonna have to figure out a way to make 170 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 3: those adjustments to the matchups. I just mentioned on the 171 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 3: flip side. If you're Boston, you can't lose Marcus Smarter 172 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 3: Robert Williams for a couple of the games in this series. 173 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 3: You're gonna lose the series if those guys are not 174 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 3: healthy enough to play each of every game. And again, 175 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 3: you're gonna have to make adjustments for being at a 176 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 3: level you've never been to before. Saw this great interview 177 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 3: with Kendrick Perkins. He was talking about when he played 178 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 3: with Oklahoma City and he said, you know, we were 179 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 3: all just happy to be there. And he goes, there's 180 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 3: so much that Boston's got to figure out that they've 181 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 3: never done before. He goes, you're thinking about tickets for 182 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 3: your family and friends. He goes, those are the things 183 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 3: that you're thinking about as a newbie to the finals. 184 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 3: So listen, Golden State knows how to handle all that. 185 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 3: That's why one of the reasons besides having home court 186 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 3: to start this thing while they're favored. 187 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: Meanwhile, you know what Steph Curry is thinking about right now? 188 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 3: What's the heck? 189 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: There's a video that came out today of him walking 190 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: out of a golf galaxy. He just got his club's regrift. 191 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 3: Oh nice, I hadn't seen that. Yeah, the man's cool 192 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 3: as a cucumber man. He knows what to do when 193 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,839 Speaker 3: it comes to getting ready for a series, clearing his mind. 194 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 3: I would guess yep. 195 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm fully admitted a Golden State Warriors bandwagon fan. 196 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: I can't pretend that I have a deep connection to 197 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: the team, but back when I lived in the Bay 198 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: Area sometimes I got handed tickets to games, and what 199 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: are you gonna do not go and not support them. 200 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 1: I love to see how fun their style is and 201 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: how much fun it is watching them play in a 202 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: way that we haven't gotten to see in recent years 203 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: with all of the injuries. 204 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 2: It's excited to have. 205 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: It's exciting to have them back and being kind of 206 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: what they were without being a total super team where 207 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: you just go into a series like this assuming that 208 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: they're gonna walk all over their opponent. Like you said, 209 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be very interesting and as we 210 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: get into Game one, specifically, here the line right now, 211 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot Com has the consensus line at Warriors minus 212 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 1: three and a half in Game one. Sixty seven percent 213 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,559 Speaker 1: of our betters at bettingpros dot Com that have put 214 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: in tickets have the Warriors in that spot the totals 215 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: at two eleven and a half, eighty three percent of 216 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: the bets on our website are on the over, and 217 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the betters like Warriors money line 218 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: minus one sixty five the Celtics dollars forty dogs in 219 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: the first one. Like you said, you expect the Warriors 220 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: to come out in Game one on top is three 221 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: and a half too many points. 222 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 3: Though I don't think so. I think you know and 223 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 3: night lean towards the Warriors in Game one. I mean, 224 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 3: if you for those watching who haven't heard of the 225 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 3: stat yet, if you look at the last eighty one 226 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 3: NBA playoff games, the straight up winner has covered seventy 227 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 3: two of those eighty one games, so it's almost you know, 228 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 3: you pick the winner. We'd be sipping on my ties 229 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 3: right now on the islands of the South Pacific, Thomas, 230 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 3: and we played all eighty one of those games and 231 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 3: knew who was going to win straight up, we'd be 232 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 3: seventy two and nine right now, not really caring about 233 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 3: anything that's going to happen this particular finals. But when 234 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 3: I yeah, I'm not shocked at all. What did kind 235 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 3: of surprise me a little bit is I'm going to 236 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 3: say it was probably about two pm Eastern time on Tuesday. 237 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 3: I saw I got about twenty five books on my 238 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 3: screen on my line service, and I saw one book 239 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 3: go to four, and within twenty minutes it was back 240 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: to three and a half. So we've seen this line 241 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,199 Speaker 3: open as low as two when it first came out 242 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 3: in a couple of locales, get basically to three and 243 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 3: a half on Monday morning, and settle there everywhere except 244 00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 3: for that one outlier when we saw a coup to 245 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:01,079 Speaker 3: four to get. Like I said, it was bet back 246 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 3: down within fifteen twenty minutes of getting to four. But 247 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 3: when I saw that, I'm like, wow, is this going 248 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 3: to start a little trend here? You know, there are 249 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 3: some bookmakers out there who are babysitting lines and they 250 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 3: see a line go from three and a half to four, 251 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 3: and they panic a little bit and they switch theirs 252 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 3: to four. Not all of them, but a few, And 253 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 3: I thought, I'll see if this starts a trend. But 254 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 3: it did. It came back down when I break down 255 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 3: the game itself. Besides the fact that I just mentioned, 256 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 3: you kind of pick up straight up winner in the 257 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 3: NBA playoffs and you cover the point spread. I think 258 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 3: that the experience of going into game one that we 259 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 3: just talked about for the series really comes to the forefront. 260 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 3: In game one, it's Boston's first time in the finals. 261 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,199 Speaker 3: They got to kind of figure things out. This team 262 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 3: as an organization called in playoff game ones over the 263 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,679 Speaker 3: last several years, like the last nineteen games, they're you know, 264 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 3: about thirty thirty five percent against the spread in game one. 265 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 3: And there's a really good angle that goes back almost 266 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 3: twenty years. I'm not a big trend at angle guy, 267 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 3: but when it comes to this kind of stuff demand 268 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 3: when it gets this deep in the playoffs. But if 269 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,319 Speaker 3: you go back almost twenty years, if you play on 270 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 3: that Western Conference team, if in game one they have 271 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 3: the better record than the Eastern Conference team, they've won 272 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 3: like thirteen in a row, and they've won those games 273 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 3: by double digits per game. It hasn't even been close 274 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 3: on average. And in this particular spot again, I think 275 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 3: this is when you're gonna see Boston's inexperienced factor show 276 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 3: up more than the other time in the post in 277 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 3: the finals. So yeah, I mean, it's it's one of 278 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 3: those situations where yeah, Golden State lacks the interior defense 279 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 3: at a level that Boston plays, and they got away 280 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 3: with it against the teams they faced thus far. But 281 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to rear its head in 282 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 3: this game. I think this is going to be a 283 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 3: real feel it kind of game for Boston where they 284 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 3: got to get their feet wet with nobody having experience 285 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 3: in finals play. Eventually, Tatum and Brown, I think, you know, 286 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 3: they just get back to being big. The Tatum's at 287 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 3: that point now where he's like superstar level obviously, you know, 288 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 3: So I just think he's going to be able to 289 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 3: carry the team, but not in game one, Tamas. So 290 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 3: there's my roundabout way of saying that I do like 291 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 3: Golden State. I like them minus the three and a 292 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 3: half of this particular game. 293 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: And if you're looking to get a price on the 294 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: Boston Celtics to win the entire series, you're honestly kind 295 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: of hoping for a blowout in game one because if 296 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: you think that they're going to come back like that, 297 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 1: you're gonna be able to get a monster price in 298 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: game two rather than picking it up. 299 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 3: Now. Perfect setup for me is if Boston loses this 300 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 3: first game and if they look ugly, you know, if 301 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 3: they do what I just mentioned that angle that goes 302 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 3: back almost twenty years in game one of the NBA Finals, 303 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 3: if they lose by average ten, twelve, thirteen points in 304 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 3: this game, I'm feeling pretty good with a big, nice, 305 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 3: juicy underdog price for the series. And you know it 306 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 3: is in playoff andicapping, I don't care if a team 307 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 3: gets blown out one game, I might be on of 308 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 3: the next game. These teams are so good that you're 309 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 3: not going to see, you know, this big of a 310 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 3: difference game in game out, and there's gonna be probably 311 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 3: a couple of blowouts along the way. I was at 312 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 3: a concert. By the way, I had Golden State had 313 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 3: a nice playoff for I had Golden State. I'm at 314 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:03,839 Speaker 3: a concert a couple of weeks ago here in Las 315 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 3: Vegas and the House of Blues. I grab my phone. 316 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 3: I'm looking at my phone like this, check it out scores, 317 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 3: and I see a fifty five point difference in the 318 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 3: score of the third quarter in a game that I 319 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 3: had Golden State, and I just automatically assumed Golden State's 320 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 3: up by fifty five and I looked at them like, 321 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 3: oh cool. Just for that split second, I'm like, oh easy, peasy, 322 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 3: I look at it again. They're down fifty five. They 323 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 3: go on to win the series. So it's one of 324 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 3: the weirdest post seasons where we're seeing teams get totally 325 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 3: blasted and come back and win series and Golden State 326 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 3: and I think this is to their credit in that game, 327 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 3: they knew by halftime early they had no chance of 328 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 3: winning that basketball game. And you saw the stars of 329 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 3: this team getting much less minutes. Why have them out 330 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 3: when they're down forty and they're not going to come 331 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 3: back and win and take a chance to lose them 332 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 3: for the rest of the series. That adds to these 333 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 3: blowouts to this postseason. 334 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. It's been a wild postseason. When 335 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: it comes to just the swings, I feel like we've 336 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: actually struggled to find really close games up to this point. 337 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 2: It's been blowout after blowout. 338 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: It's just the team that got blown out the night 339 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: before is all of a sudden, the team doing the 340 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: blowing out the next night. And that's how it's been 341 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: swinging back and forth. That being said, I think and 342 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong, but I think if you're 343 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: looking to take a price on the Warriors in this series. Again, 344 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: you could go over into one of the exact series 345 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 1: outcome markets. The four to two, four to three range 346 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: might be where you're gonna want to land on that side. 347 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: But if you're just looking to take them on a 348 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: straight up price to win, I think my recommendation would 349 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: be looking at that stat about the fact that only 350 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: nine teams have won without covering over the course of 351 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: the postseason, you're gonna want to just bet them on 352 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: the spread, depending and bet them on the spread in 353 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: game one, and then look to continue to roll that 354 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: money over into spread bets for the rest of the series. Obviously, 355 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: it gives you the luxury of you're not just on 356 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 1: one bet here. If the spread in game two is 357 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: just too high, you don't have to take it then, 358 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: and that might be a better way to try and 359 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: turn a profit on the series, right. 360 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 3: Oh, I absolutely agree. I think it's a great way 361 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 3: to go if you're you know, look at a golden 362 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 3: State and I don't think it's a situation where, you know, 363 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 3: I guess maybe if they split, if Boston does come 364 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 3: through like I'm hoping to in Game two, lose Game one, 365 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 3: win Game two, then maybe you do some stuff at 366 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 3: Golden State. At that point, you know you've lost home 367 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 3: court to Danage, whatever. But I like what you're saying. Absolutely, 368 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 3: that's that's the way I would go about it. 369 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 2: Guys. 370 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: Real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. 371 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: It's the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. 372 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: You probably already have a fantasy league on there. 373 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 2: I use it for mine. 374 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: It's a game changing product unlike anything else in the industry, 375 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: and now you could win on Sleeper by playing their 376 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: new over undergame. It's super simple. 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I'm going Steph 397 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: Curry under twenty seven and a half points in Game 398 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: one of the NBA Finals. 399 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 2: In terms of. 400 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: Conditions apply, see Sleeper dot com for details. Well, now 401 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:46,880 Speaker 1: let's transition on over to the ice here Scott, because 402 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: again it is playoff season, and in addition to the 403 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: NBA Finals here, we've got the conference finals for the 404 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 1: Stanley Cup race going on right now in the National 405 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: Hockey League, and we're gonna start it off here. The 406 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,640 Speaker 1: Oilers versus the app Avalanche coming up soon Game one. 407 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 1: The Abs they were minus one eighty five right now, 408 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: the Oilers plus one fifty five on the money line. 409 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 1: Where are you looking in this particular game right now? 410 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 3: Well, can I first say you learn from your mistakes. 411 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 3: And I could not believe in that nine to six 412 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 3: game for Edmonton and Calgary that the books didn't put 413 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 3: a six and a half to start that total. They 414 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,199 Speaker 3: had it at six and a watch of us hit 415 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 3: the over and they scored fifteen goals. It is extremely 416 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 3: rare when you see the books in Vegas or around 417 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 3: the world come in like that and make a little 418 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 3: bit of a mistake, and they actually did so. It 419 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 3: doesn't happen often, but we try to take advantage when 420 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 3: they do and hope to find them when they do. 421 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 3: They did not make the mistake here. This gave one 422 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 3: battle between the oilers and abs. I mean, you look 423 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 3: at that total now, I think it's seven just about everywhere. 424 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 3: Right before we started doing the podcast, I saw sevens 425 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 3: all over the place. This is the perfect example, Thomas, 426 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:57,159 Speaker 3: why I'm a night out wel when it comes to 427 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 3: handicapping and vetting. Last night at one am Pacific time, 428 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 3: you didn't have to worry about seven. It wasn't seven anywhere. 429 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 3: I don't think maybe one or two books out of 430 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 3: the twenty or so that I was looking at, and 431 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 3: I jumped in on the over. Now, if it hits seven. 432 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 3: Obviously you don't lose if that's where it finishes, if 433 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 3: that's what you had to end up using as the over, 434 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 3: But it's kind of nice to get that to beat 435 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 3: that closing line. And I've said this before, Thomas, I 436 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 3: might have said it, you know on shows I've done 437 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 3: with you in the past, that it's a situation where 438 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 3: when you're looking at six and a half or seven 439 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 3: and getting that price, getting ahead of the closing line. 440 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 3: It's so important and the reason I do things at night, 441 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 3: and I tell people whore kind of new to betting, 442 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 3: and it's becoming, you know, new for a lot of 443 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,919 Speaker 3: people out there, a lot of younger generations, younger than me. 444 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 3: But you want to get ahead of the closing line. 445 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 3: And I've been doing this for thirty years basically, and 446 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 3: I can get ahead of the closing line or line 447 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 3: moves eighty five percent of the time, so can anybody 448 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 3: who's been doing this as long as I have. And 449 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 3: I'm not saying we win eighty five percent of the time. 450 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,439 Speaker 3: We're really happy with fifty five percent and eleven to 451 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 3: win ten kind of sports bets. But if you can 452 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 3: get ahead of that closing line, eighty eighty five percent 453 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 3: of the time. Then it's going to help in your 454 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 3: overall winning record and your bank role. And you know 455 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 3: that's why I do these things overnight. That's why I got, 456 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 3: you know, busy at one o'clock in the morning Pacific time, 457 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 3: and jumped on this play. So having said that, as 458 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 3: far as the series is concerned, I'll tell you right now, Thomas, 459 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 3: I think the difference maker are Darcy Kemper over you know, 460 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 3: Mike Smith over Coskanen. You know for the Oilers. You've 461 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 3: got Darcy Kemper going for the Apps. I think that's 462 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 3: going to be a huge advantage. If you look at 463 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 3: what Edmonton has done in this postseason, they average almost 464 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 3: thirty eight shots on goal per game so far this postseason. 465 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,120 Speaker 3: Talking about Edmonton, they allow I should say, I'm sorry, 466 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 3: they allow about thirty eight shots on goal per game 467 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 3: in the postseason. Colorado allows about twenty seven shots on 468 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 3: goal per game during this postseason. Look at the shots 469 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 3: on goal differential Colorado plus one hundred and twenty eight, 470 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 3: Edmonton minus thirty one in this postseason. You can get 471 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 3: away with that if you're Edmonton. When you're playing a 472 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 3: team like Calgary, I don't think you could do the 473 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 3: same when you're playing a team like the Colorado Avalanche, 474 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 3: and if it's going to be Costcan in a net. 475 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,959 Speaker 3: I haven't seen a confirmation on goalies looks like I mean, 476 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 3: I've seen right ups on Mike Smith and it looks 477 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 3: like he's possibly gonna go tonight, but we don't have 478 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,679 Speaker 3: any confirmation at the time, and doing this podcast, I 479 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 3: don't care either goalie. Of those two players that are 480 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,199 Speaker 3: in net, Edmonton is going to have a tough go 481 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 3: of it. I love Edmonton, by the way, who doesn't 482 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 3: you know dryseidl McDavid best one to combol on the ice, 483 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 3: But they're more than that. You've got Duncan Keith, You've 484 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 3: got Hymen, You've got Bushard and Evander Kaine was a 485 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 3: terrific addition. Thomas he's a knucklehead off the ice, but 486 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 3: he's outstanding in the right spot in the NHL, he's 487 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 3: in the right spot. So having settle of that, I 488 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 3: do think the players I just mentioned are going to 489 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 3: help this Game one battle get to at least seven, 490 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 3: if not more between the two teams tonight. As far 491 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 3: as the series, though, it's got to be Colorado, and 492 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 3: I've even been looking around a little bit before this 493 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 3: game faces off. I might do something at minus a 494 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 3: game and a half, so they have to win four 495 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,120 Speaker 3: games to two or better. I've been kind of doint 496 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 3: get around a little bit, if you will, try to 497 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 3: find a good price on that. 498 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: I'm in complete agreement with you. Obviously, we got the 499 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: battle that the NHL wants to see here. You've got 500 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 1: McDavid going up against McKinnon, to the two best in 501 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: the game right now that they have. You could argue, 502 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: but I agree the problem with Edmonton. You said that 503 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 1: they have so much more, But do they? Though? 504 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 2: Do they? 505 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 1: They have that amazing one two punch, they have a 506 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 1: Vander Kayne, but the lines start to get weak once 507 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: you get past that. I feel like this team is 508 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: just so top heavy, whereas the Avalanche are just able 509 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: to beat you over and over again. They look absolutely ridiculous. 510 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: I don't know that Edmonton can take a game in 511 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,719 Speaker 1: Colorado in this series. Like you said, looking at a 512 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 1: minor one and a half game price in the series 513 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: is probably somewhere that I'd be inclined. 514 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 2: To go as well. 515 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 1: I'm honestly gonna have a small ticket. I'm gonna go 516 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: place it right after this on an Avalanche sweep. It's 517 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 1: gonna be a small price, maybe half a unit. I'm 518 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: not looking to take them on a full unit, be 519 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: as hockey has way too much variance. But this team 520 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: is good enough to sweep a team like the Oilers, 521 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,120 Speaker 1: especially when you're going through the Mike Smith experience. 522 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 2: If they are, Yeah, and. 523 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 3: I was gonna say, I've seen both goalies mentioned, but 524 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 3: if it's Mike Smith, I mean, come on, he you know, 525 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 3: they did a great job at beating Mark Strom, no 526 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 3: doubt about it. But Mark Strum a very good goalie. 527 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 3: I don't think he can do the same against the 528 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 3: AFS team. I mean they're, you know, another level higher 529 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 3: than than obviously they played in Calgary. So you get 530 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 3: Kemper and goal and the guy with that experience, and 531 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 3: you're not gonna beat him like they did in that 532 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 3: last series against Mark Strum. And listen to Mike Smith. 533 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 3: If he has to stop thirty five to forty goals 534 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,439 Speaker 3: per game, I just think it's forget about it. And 535 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 3: I happen to agree. I think you're to sweep is 536 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 3: not a bad way to go. I'm probably gonna be 537 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 3: a little bit wimpy and do the minus a game 538 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 3: and a half of the series on Colorado. But I 539 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 3: do like your sweep bet too. 540 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: That's definitely a much more aggressive play, and in terms 541 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 1: of the actual bankroll and putting more units on it, 542 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go more conservative. I'm gonna be the same 543 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: way you are looking at that minus a game and 544 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: a half market, because I could see this very easily 545 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 1: being a four to one. I might look at that 546 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 1: exactly as well on a little more of an aggressive play. Guys, 547 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 1: real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks and 548 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 1: sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you covered with 549 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 1: tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to make 550 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,640 Speaker 1: it easy for you to cash out. Download the app 551 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 1: to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified of favorable 552 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: bets based online movements, consensus picks from the most accurate 553 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: experts and vetted systems in play. Betting Pros monitors all 554 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 1: of the major sports books, most accurate experts, and top 555 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 1: systems to identify the best betting opportunities. So download today 556 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:58,120 Speaker 1: in the Apple or Google Play stores. Before we move 557 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 1: on to the other series, here the Lightning the Rangers. 558 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 1: There's another thing that you mentioned I really want to 559 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: touch on, and that is watching for overnight lines. 560 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,200 Speaker 2: Yep, it's important to remember. 561 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: Book makers they're human too. It's not all done by 562 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:15,159 Speaker 1: a computer these days still, and one of the things 563 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 1: is that you can find better numbers on the overnight 564 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 1: line before everybody else is up and betting it and 565 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 1: moving the market around. Granted, you can't quite gets get 566 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 1: down as much money. They put some more limits on you. 567 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 1: You can't go in and be making a bet for 568 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,760 Speaker 1: a higher limit than they allow and getting it approved 569 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 1: because there's no one there to approve it in the 570 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,480 Speaker 1: middle of the night. But with mobile betting, every book 571 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 1: is a twenty four hour book now and that's something 572 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 1: that new betters really should be watching out for if 573 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 1: you want to get the best price on numbers. A 574 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,640 Speaker 1: lot of the times that is going to be those 575 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: overnight lines before everybody wakes up in the morning and 576 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 1: starts moving it. 577 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 3: Absolutely, and you're right, I mean you have to pick 578 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 3: and choose what books you go to. If you get 579 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 3: a reputation at a book and anywhere in the country, 580 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,439 Speaker 3: around the world, whatever, there are some books out there 581 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,199 Speaker 3: who if you do a reputation, they do want to 582 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 3: see where your action is going to be. They want 583 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,199 Speaker 3: to see that before everybody else jumps in, and then 584 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,680 Speaker 3: they want to make adjustments accordingly. But for the most part, 585 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 3: betting overnight means a little bit less as far as 586 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 3: your you know, limits are concerned. And then you got 587 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 3: to turn around a lot of times, and you got 588 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:17,399 Speaker 3: to be up bright and early in the morning if 589 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 3: you want to bet more and try to get those 590 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 3: just as they're starting to move, and that's tough to do. 591 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 3: I get it. This is all I do for a living. 592 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 3: I've been doing this for thirty years. So you know, 593 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 3: my circadium rhythm, if you will, is used to having 594 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,200 Speaker 3: weird sleeping hours, getting up after a few hours, looking 595 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,440 Speaker 3: at the lines again, doing a little bit more, and 596 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 3: then getting back at it late the night before. But 597 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,720 Speaker 3: you do find some you know, you get burned sometimes. 598 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,239 Speaker 3: I'll give you a perfect example tonight, Thomas. I mean, 599 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:45,679 Speaker 3: I sit here and you know you talk about, oh, 600 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 3: I can be ahead eighty eighty five percent of the 601 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,160 Speaker 3: time against the closing line. I jumped on the Las 602 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 3: Vegas aces and WNBA play for tonight, I laid four 603 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 3: and a half last night. It's down to as low 604 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 3: as three and a half right now. So there's one. 605 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 3: You know, hats off to the books. They beat me 606 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 3: on that one when it came to the closing line 607 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 3: of where it went from the opener. And but again, 608 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,119 Speaker 3: fortunately we've been doing this for so long that ten 609 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 3: to fifteen percent of the time is all you could 610 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:09,400 Speaker 3: beat on those line moves. 611 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:10,640 Speaker 2: That's completely right. 612 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 1: Obviously, if you're gonna make a bet, you're you're thinking 613 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 1: that the line is gonna move one way. It can 614 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: move completely against you. Sometimes you miss on that. But 615 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 1: eighty five percent closing line value. 616 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 2: If I had a. 617 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 1: Trophy case for all the closing line value that we've 618 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 1: had that didn't hit, I would need a much bigger 619 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,359 Speaker 1: place than my tiny apartment, I will tell you. 620 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 3: There you go. 621 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 2: Now the other series here, last one. 622 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: We want to get to the Lightning versus the Rangers, 623 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: the Battle of Floridians versus the people who retire. There 624 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: the Lightning or minus one seventy five to win this 625 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:45,199 Speaker 1: series the Rangers plus one fifty. Here is this the 626 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 1: best goalie battle that we are gonna have in these playoffs? Here, 627 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 1: because you've got Vassilevski, who has been just an absolute animal. 628 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 1: And Shahsterkin on the other side here for the Rangers, 629 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 1: he's been playing out of his mind as well. Are 630 00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 1: these the two best goalies that we're gonna see? 631 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 3: I think so best battle, because I don't think you're 632 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:02,919 Speaker 3: going to find that out West. You can throw Kemper 633 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 3: into the mix, I guess with the two guys you 634 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 3: just mentioned. And of course, if you're looking to put 635 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 3: history on your side, jump on Baskolewski. If he loses, right, 636 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 3: he just comes back in the postseason off a loss 637 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 3: and wins. Schesterkin as far as you know, I like 638 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,960 Speaker 3: to call him Igor Vesna, but what he did the 639 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 3: last two games was tremendous. I didn't think he'd come 640 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 3: out and hold Carolina to two goals on Carolina ice, 641 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 3: and I really thought, if he does, Carolina is probably 642 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 3: going to win that game two to one. So hats 643 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,159 Speaker 3: off to the Rangers. Gerard Gallant is really good at 644 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 3: this man. He's really good in his first season or 645 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 3: two of taking a team, a young team, putting a 646 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 3: few veterans in the mix, getting a good goaltender and 647 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 3: going out there and getting them deeper than anybody expected 648 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 3: them to do before the season began. That's Jorge Gallant 649 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 3: in a nutshell now out here in Vegas. That's what 650 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 3: he did we saw first year than the Stanley Cup Finals, 651 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 3: kind of a similar type of approach. You had a 652 00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 3: really good banger, yet a really good enforcer guys off 653 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 3: of your star players. He's got that with Reeves and 654 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 3: he teamed up with again after having him out here 655 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:09,959 Speaker 3: in Vegas. You've got a tremendous proven goalie in Shasterkin, 656 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 3: just like you had with Marc Andre Fleury. You've got 657 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 3: guys who score goals. Everybody knows their role on this 658 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,360 Speaker 3: Rangers team, and everybody buys in to what they're supposed 659 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 3: to be doing. However, and I'm going to keep with 660 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 3: that little bit of a look back to what he 661 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 3: did with Vegas and the similarities. I think Tampa Bay 662 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 3: is the New York Rangers Washington Capitals to the Las 663 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 3: Vegas Golden Knights from a couple of years ago. And 664 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 3: this team's just too powerful on defense for I think 665 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 3: the Rangers to be able to make up for any 666 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 3: potential mistakes that maybe Shasterkin makes, and there won't be 667 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 3: a lot, but he might make. He might let a 668 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 3: goal slip by or two that he shouldn't. He's done 669 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,760 Speaker 3: that a little bit in the postseason, and then all 670 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 3: of a sudden, you're fighting from behind against this team 671 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 3: that knows how to get it done. You know, we 672 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 3: just talked about the Golden State Warriors and everything they 673 00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 3: did in the NBA and have done the last several years, 674 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 3: all that experience. I really thought Tampa Bay's potential series 675 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 3: loss was going to be that series against Toronto going 676 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 3: into that and I made a few little bets on 677 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 3: Toronto to win that series in different ways. They didn't 678 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 3: get the job done. Tampa prooved again. They're still as 679 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 3: hungry as they've been the last couple of years, and 680 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 3: I think they're just going to be too tough. And again, 681 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 3: when you look at Vasilevskin what he can do off 682 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 3: a loss, He's just that ultimate slumpbuster between the pipes 683 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,239 Speaker 3: for this team, and I don't think the Rangers are 684 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 3: going to be able to get over the top against him. 685 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 3: The thing about Carolina, they just can't win on the road, 686 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 3: and it finally caught up to them at home in 687 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 3: a Game seven. Tampa Bay's dangerous no matter where they play, 688 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 3: whether it's a frozen pond or Homer Away on ice, 689 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 3: they're going to get the job done. So, you know, 690 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be as sweet by 691 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 3: any means. I think the Rangers can win two games, 692 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 3: but I like Tampa Bay to win this four games 693 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 3: to two. 694 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 1: Our own Bettingpros dot Com Tony Sartory broke down the 695 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: series in an article today. 696 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,200 Speaker 2: You guys can check it out now. 697 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 1: He actually likes the Rangers to win the series here, 698 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 1: he's got the value with them. But I'm still a 699 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,640 Speaker 1: little bit skeptical because and I know it's bad handicapping. 700 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: It's bad handicapping to be going into human emotion and 701 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,880 Speaker 1: trying to guess how the players are going to be feeling. 702 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 1: But you are dealing with and it is going to 703 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 1: be a factor that the Lightning swept the Panthers. They've 704 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,880 Speaker 1: had eight days off, whereas the Rangers are coming into 705 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 1: this one. They just had to battle through a tough series. 706 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,240 Speaker 1: They just had a game seven, they've only had one 707 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 1: day's rest, and moving into the moving into the opening 708 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 1: game here, the Lightning are minus one thirty in our 709 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 1: Betting Pros consensus line. The Rangers plus one ten. Do 710 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 1: you think that the Rangers might just come out looking 711 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,000 Speaker 1: a little bit sharper and that the Lightning will be 712 00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 1: a little slow in game one as they get going again. 713 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,600 Speaker 3: I could definitely see that argument in. You know, I 714 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 3: can't find a lot of fault with it. The only 715 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 3: wrench in that system, I think is the fact that 716 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 3: the Lightning have done it so often. Yeah, I mean, 717 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 3: they know how to do it, you know, they know 718 00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 3: how to get the job done, whether they're up at 719 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 3: a series, down in a series, kicking off a series 720 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,640 Speaker 3: with a bunch of rest or not. But that's what 721 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 3: keeps me from jumping into Lightning in game one. So, 722 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 3: you know, you got two ways to look at it. 723 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 3: You could say, oh, the Rangers just had to win 724 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 3: a Game six in a Game seven with Game seven 725 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,120 Speaker 3: on Roade Ice, and so they've just come off this 726 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 3: hugely intense series where they had to face elimination twice 727 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 3: and came through with wins and obviously both of those games. 728 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 3: And you got Tampa Bay, who you know, for lack 729 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 3: of a better term, skated through their series against Florida. 730 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 3: They cruised, And so you can look at it that 731 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 3: way too. Saying that you know, Tampa not only knows 732 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 3: how to win Cups and they've been through every scenario, 733 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 3: you know, but they should have that factor of being 734 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 3: able to get ready even though they've been off for 735 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 3: eight days. There's a lot of people that are jumping 736 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 3: on first period bets against them, by the way, that 737 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 3: I've talked to, because they think they're going to be 738 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 3: a little bit rusty. I just don't know if the 739 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 3: Ranger is going to hold that little bit of an 740 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 3: advantage through an entire three periods based off the fact 741 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 3: they just played two elimination games and haven't had hardly 742 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,600 Speaker 3: any time get over that. So again, because of what 743 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 3: you just said, and I can't disagree with it, that's 744 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 3: what keeps from making a decent sized place on Tampa 745 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:08,280 Speaker 3: Bay in Game one. 746 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 1: And that's something that we're gonna say again and again 747 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 1: on this podcast if people have been listening for a while. 748 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 1: First off, thank you, and second off, you don't have 749 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 1: to bet every game. 750 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 2: The biggest advantage. 751 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: That we have as betters over the book is that 752 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,720 Speaker 1: the book has to put up a line on every 753 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 1: single game. You have the luxury of saying, you know what, 754 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna bet this one. 755 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 2: For me. 756 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: This is one of those stay away games where there 757 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,200 Speaker 1: are a few too many factors in it that I'm like, 758 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: I don't have a clear picture about what's gonna happen. 759 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 1: I don't have a clear feeling, so I don't have 760 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 1: to take a position here. 761 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 3: Oh, I agree. That's like, you know, the game we 762 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 3: talked about first, the Western Conference battle between the Oilers 763 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 3: and Abs. I'm not messing with the side there now. 764 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 3: I kind of want to see what happens. I like 765 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 3: the over I do think it's going to be a 766 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 3: you know, seven to nine goal game combined. But I'm 767 00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 3: like you, I don't want to jump in on game 768 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 3: one yet. I want to see what happens. And I'm 769 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,800 Speaker 3: that way in a lot of NHL postseason series going 770 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 3: back many many years. A lot of times I completely 771 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 3: stay away from Game one. I like to see what 772 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 3: happens and then look at how the matchups are, look 773 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:10,880 Speaker 3: at se if there's any flukiness to it. You know, 774 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 3: if the Rangers come out and totally dominate Tampa Bay 775 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 3: and Tampa Bay's rusty and that's the main reason the 776 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 3: Rangers get it done, well, I'll be coming back the 777 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,319 Speaker 3: other way with Tampa Bay in all likelihood no one. 778 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 3: They'll make the adjustments and knowing that they're no longer 779 00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 3: rusty in game two. So like you, Thomas, when it 780 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:26,839 Speaker 3: comes to the NHL Man, I set out a lot 781 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 3: of game ones when it comes to the sides. 782 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,759 Speaker 1: Especially, like we said, with variants in hockey, games can 783 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,400 Speaker 1: be really fluky, right that it's important, it's important to 784 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,680 Speaker 1: watch out for that. Now, there are, of course four 785 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,920 Speaker 1: teams left here. The Avalanche is still the betting favorite 786 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 1: at plus a dollar twenty Lightning right behind them at 787 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 1: two dollars twenty cents as the second favorites to hoist 788 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,919 Speaker 1: the cup. Then you got the Oilers at five point 789 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,560 Speaker 1: fifty and the Rangers at six point fifty. I feel 790 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 1: like if you want the abs, your your price is 791 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 1: long sailed. There is no value to be betting here 792 00:34:58,520 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 1: with the Lightning. 793 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:01,240 Speaker 2: Am I wrong to assume? 794 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,160 Speaker 1: And this might be a stupid question here, you might 795 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 1: be better off looking at them, taking this series price 796 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,640 Speaker 1: as a favorite and then coming back on them as 797 00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 1: the dog in the series against the Avalanche, assuming that's 798 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:13,840 Speaker 1: what we get in the final. 799 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,920 Speaker 2: If you wanted to bet on the Lightning, yeah. 800 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 3: That's what I would do if I was going to 801 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:18,879 Speaker 3: you know, if I'm on the lightning side here, that's 802 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 3: exactly what I do. I think you're able to right 803 00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 3: on the head, you know, as far as you know me, 804 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 3: if you want it, if you absolutely just want to 805 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,480 Speaker 3: have some entertainment fun and you're like, I just want 806 00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:29,440 Speaker 3: to play some money on a team right now to 807 00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 3: win the Cup, you know, my recommendation would be to 808 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 3: back Colorado if you don't mind laying all that juice 809 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,520 Speaker 3: or whatever, you know, more than other teams, because I 810 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,279 Speaker 3: think Colorado has a much better chance of getting there 811 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 3: than Tampa Bay or the Rangers. Obviously, with that being 812 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,280 Speaker 3: what should be a little bit harder of a battle 813 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,719 Speaker 3: for those two teams. But what you just said, I 814 00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 3: absolutely agree with the way you said it. If you 815 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,319 Speaker 3: like the Lightning, that's the way to go, and that's 816 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 3: what I would do. I'm not real big at this 817 00:35:56,640 --> 00:36:00,239 Speaker 3: point of a postseason of jumping on team when it 818 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,239 Speaker 3: comes to conference finals, whether it be the NBA or 819 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,719 Speaker 3: the NHL as far as making future as I'm more 820 00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,239 Speaker 3: of a game by game guy, and that's what I'll 821 00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:07,719 Speaker 3: be looking to do in these two games. In these 822 00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:08,320 Speaker 3: two series. 823 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,240 Speaker 1: Want to track all of your wagers in one place, 824 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 1: check out the Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash picktracking. 825 00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,040 Speaker 1: It syncs up with your sports books to tally which 826 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,000 Speaker 1: picks hit, which miss, and gives you a live look 827 00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,279 Speaker 1: at what the public is doing, so you can use 828 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,239 Speaker 1: real time tracking to determine which place to make and 829 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,160 Speaker 1: which to fade. Get on the leaderboard, and quickly become 830 00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,520 Speaker 1: a sharp by using the free advice we offer at 831 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,839 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash picktracking. Scott, thank you so much 832 00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 1: for joining me today. 833 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,280 Speaker 2: I really appreciate it real quick. 834 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,719 Speaker 1: You had your best NBA season ever? 835 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:44,040 Speaker 2: Is that correct? This year? 836 00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,520 Speaker 3: It was? We had a season like this in the 837 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 3: late nineties, and it's crazy, And I know, you know 838 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 3: this doesn't sound great to the people who are new 839 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 3: to your podcast, are new to sports betting in general. 840 00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,560 Speaker 3: But we hit sixty two percent since gosh, I'm gonna 841 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,720 Speaker 3: say this week of October we' hit sixty two percent 842 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,680 Speaker 3: through the playoffs up until right now, Game one of 843 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 3: the NBA Finals one oh nine and sixty seven. So 844 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,399 Speaker 3: you know, those betting just one hundred bucks a unit 845 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 3: are up over a little over fifteen thousand. So listen, 846 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 3: I'm real happy when I hit fifty five percent for 847 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 3: a season on eleven to win ten bets. So this 848 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 3: has been tremendous. All I can say real quickly to 849 00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 3: like give people a reason to why, you know, besides luck, 850 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,360 Speaker 3: you have to have luck to hit sixty two percent. 851 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,280 Speaker 3: But one of the things I did before this season, 852 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,160 Speaker 3: remember when we were tipping off this NBA season, there 853 00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:34,920 Speaker 3: were still a lot of COVID issues when it came 854 00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:39,280 Speaker 3: to players, coaches, things like that, you know, catching COVID, 855 00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,400 Speaker 3: And so I didn't want to get caught with a 856 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 3: four play card or a three play card day in 857 00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 3: day out, find out at two o'clock in the afternoon, 858 00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,000 Speaker 3: two hours before tip off West Coast time, find out 859 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:52,400 Speaker 3: that I was going to be missing a couple of 860 00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,000 Speaker 3: star players. And I thought, you know what, I got 861 00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 3: to limit that liability a little bit. And so what 862 00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,080 Speaker 3: I did. I've basically been almost one play perd. I 863 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,319 Speaker 3: bet you I've averaged like one point four plays per 864 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,359 Speaker 3: day in the NBA. If I went back and looked 865 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 3: at all the days that I bet, and I didn't 866 00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,359 Speaker 3: want to get again caught up in a chance of 867 00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:12,360 Speaker 3: losing players late afternoon that just tested positive for COVID 868 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,040 Speaker 3: after shoot rounds. Wasn't going to let that happen. So 869 00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,719 Speaker 3: I went down to one one and a half again 870 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,640 Speaker 3: on average games per day, and at worked, and of 871 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,040 Speaker 3: course I did need the luck factor. Now in the postseason, 872 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 3: we've done twenty six and thirteen Thomas and again I'm 873 00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,280 Speaker 3: I'm knocking on wood, and I've said to my circle 874 00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,799 Speaker 3: of handicappers and betters, I said, man, I wish I 875 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,680 Speaker 3: could bottle this for next season, because it starts all 876 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,239 Speaker 3: over that next season and you got to do it 877 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,800 Speaker 3: all over again, and you could be scratching your head 878 00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,000 Speaker 3: just as much as you are celebrating a good season. 879 00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,279 Speaker 3: So we'll just keep battling out. I hope it keeps 880 00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,000 Speaker 3: going that way. I appreciate you mentioning that, because boy, 881 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,960 Speaker 3: it's been a fun ride this twenty twenty one twenty 882 00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:50,600 Speaker 3: two campaign. 883 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,840 Speaker 1: Now, people can find you on Twitter at Scott wins. 884 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,839 Speaker 1: But if they want to follow along with all the action, 885 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,799 Speaker 1: where's the best place to find all your working. 886 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,319 Speaker 3: At docsports dot com is Moro Matt exclude sports dot com. 887 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,360 Speaker 3: We do a lot of podcast, a lot of videos 888 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,160 Speaker 3: almost daily, all that kind of good stuff. Scott Wins. 889 00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,040 Speaker 3: I want to mention at Twitter, I like to tell 890 00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,240 Speaker 3: people I'm not being cocky. It's because nobody, including myself, 891 00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,319 Speaker 3: basically can spell my last name. So we just been 892 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 3: at Scott Wins when the Twitter verse was new. But yeah, 893 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:18,960 Speaker 3: Doc sports dot com is where I'm at exclusively. 894 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,799 Speaker 1: There we go, Scott once again, thank you so much 895 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,319 Speaker 1: again follow him at Scott Wins. You can follow me 896 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,040 Speaker 1: on Twitter, at TV at work. Guys, it has been 897 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,600 Speaker 1: a pleasure. Best of luck on all of your bets 898 00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,919 Speaker 1: for the NBA Finals, the NHL Semifinals, and of course 899 00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,799 Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup beyond, and be sure to tune in 900 00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:36,960 Speaker 1: later on this week. 901 00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:37,880 Speaker 2: I am very excited. 902 00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,319 Speaker 1: We were sitting down with David Purdham of ESPN to 903 00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 1: talk about black Swan events and the future of book making. 904 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,600 Speaker 1: It's going to be a fantastic conversation, so stay tuned 905 00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,920 Speaker 1: for that and we'll see you next episode.