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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast part of the

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Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Moment of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are doing part two of the show that we

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Speaker 1: started on Tuesday. Let's welcome in my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Mike Compadre, my BFF professional better signon Hunter et O

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Speaker 1: Simon Chad.

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Speaker 2: I heard the dumbest dad joke when I was an

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Speaker 2: England I forgot to tell you about it on the

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Speaker 2: last show. As soon as I heard, I go Chad

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Speaker 2: would love this dad joke. So my younger cousin there,

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Speaker 2: young lad, just had his birthday and my uncle goes

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Speaker 2: up there and goes, Charlie, how old are you now?

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Speaker 2: And he goes nine. He goes, oh, I didn't know

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Speaker 2: you spoke German. I was like, damn, Chad's gonna love that.

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Speaker 2: So everyone out there, you can use that one time.

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Speaker 2: If you got you know, a kid that's turning nine,

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Speaker 2: you can use that one time for life.

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Speaker 1: Dude, I'm so old. I don't even have of nieces

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Speaker 1: and nephews turning nine anymore. All I have are irascible

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Speaker 1: teenagers who like to throw everything I've ever said in

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Speaker 1: my life back in my face. That's the entirety of

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Speaker 1: my existence. It's kind of like working with Matt Mitchell

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Speaker 1: and Gifford on this podcast, Simon, I want to bring

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Speaker 1: in Chris Girlocker, who's with Prediction News and has been

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Speaker 1: covering prediction markets for a very long time, and because

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Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about this in part one

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Because there's been such a confluence of circumstances

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Speaker 1: that have been impacting the sports betting and the gambling

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Speaker 1: universe in the last ten days, and to me, the

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Speaker 1: growth of these prediction markets and the influence and impact

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Speaker 1: of these prediction markets is one of the biggest things

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Speaker 1: out there. And I mentioned, you know, I've been working

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Speaker 1: on this book and I've done a lot of reporting

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Speaker 1: around these to a lot of the principles and the

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Speaker 1: players at CALSHI, at Sport Trade, and they're really becoming

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Speaker 1: increasingly important players in the space. As I mentioned the

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Speaker 1: other day, CALSHI raised one hundred and eighty five million,

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Speaker 1: it's now worth two billion dollars. Polymarket raised, it's now

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Speaker 1: worth a billion dollars. My conspiracy theory that I talked

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Speaker 1: about a little bit on Tuesday, nobody is benefiting more

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Speaker 1: from the new tax regulations in the Big Beautiful Bill,

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Speaker 1: in which professional betters are now only allowed to deduct

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Speaker 1: ninety percent of their losses, not one hundred percent of

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Speaker 1: their losses. Nobody benefits more, in my opinion, than prediction

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Speaker 1: markets because those are regulated and taxed in entirely different ways.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to get Chris Gerlocker on the show because

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Speaker 1: he can help us break all this down. Chris, welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Favorites.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Chad, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 2: This is cool.

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Speaker 1: Well, I can sense your enthusiasm. So before we get

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Speaker 1: to that, Simon, Matt Mitchell was rushing us off the

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Speaker 1: other day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it gives a y off the curtain.

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Speaker 1: He like it was. So it was so annoying because

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Speaker 1: I felt like you were digging in on a couple things.

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Speaker 1: And Chris just indulges for a second. Because the Big

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Speaker 1: Beautiful Bill, in which gamblers are now only allowed to

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Speaker 1: deduct ninety percent of their losses versus one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: of their losses, so all of a sudden, if they

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Speaker 1: could be paying taxes on money they did not win. Simon,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned you're trying to figure out what to do

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Speaker 1: because you think it will kill how professional betters live

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Speaker 1: in this country. It may not kill how they live,

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Speaker 1: but it may change how transparent they are with their taxes,

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Speaker 1: or they got to leave the country and decide to

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Speaker 1: do it from somewhere else. Unpack that a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: Some of the conversations you've been happening having with either accountants,

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Speaker 1: with lawyers, with other people in the space. Explain the

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Speaker 1: impact here, because I don't think people get it. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, it doesn't just impact professional betters like

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Speaker 1: DraftKings Fandal, they will send you sort of basically sheets

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Speaker 1: forms at the end of the year which you are

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Speaker 1: responsible for documenting what your potentially taxable income was as

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Speaker 1: a better So this is for everybody.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's just bad for everybody. That's why I

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Speaker 2: hope you're right that it's it doesn't go through and

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Speaker 2: that something does change because luckily we get the rest

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Speaker 2: of this season upcoming, like it doesn't go into effect

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Speaker 2: I believe until twenty twenty six, which is a big deal.

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Speaker 2: So whatever I win this year, legally I can still

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Speaker 2: report my wins and losses. But yeah, Chad, we're talking

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Speaker 2: about people like me are just constantly looking for an

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Speaker 2: edge and that doesn't come just with sports budding. That's

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Speaker 2: just about everything I do in life. It's a microcosm

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Speaker 2: of everything in life. I'm always looking for an edge.

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Speaker 2: So I told you my favorite contest that we do

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Speaker 2: pit contest. We do legal ones. My favorite pit contest

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Speaker 2: are tax free ones. Those are ones that are off

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Speaker 2: the books, so you know, people are going to go

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Speaker 2: back to what they had never even left, which is

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Speaker 2: mainly offshore books or your local book, which we know

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Speaker 2: is got a hint of crime underneath the belly of it.

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Speaker 2: So it's like guys are going to go back to

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Speaker 2: that they want to stay in the States. I like

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Speaker 2: being above board. I've liked what we what we have

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Speaker 2: now with legalization, and you know, it's it's a hard

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Speaker 2: life having everything be cash, so getting getting things to

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Speaker 2: now what it is, which is, you know, I pay

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Speaker 2: text on everything. I like it. And you know, I knew,

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Speaker 2: not that I knew this was coming, but we'd heard whispers.

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Speaker 2: And you know, again we can dive in your'rasy part

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Speaker 2: of this because New Jersey's stuff is insane. It's literally

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Speaker 2: I feel like a bill written just to go after

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Speaker 2: someone like me. I am a narcissist in many ways.

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Speaker 2: But that one just is insane to me, attacking runners.

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Speaker 2: But it really is at the point, Chad, where I'm

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Speaker 2: going to be forced possibly to leave the country for

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Speaker 2: six months out of the year. Right, England is no taxes.

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Speaker 2: I can win big money and pay no taxes on

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Speaker 2: the winning, same with my losses. In England, it's very different.

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Speaker 2: There are taxes towards gambling than it is here in America,

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Speaker 2: so that off the get go is a big deal

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Speaker 2: and many professional betters are going to look into that. Now.

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Speaker 2: Getting in three months to six month visa to England,

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Speaker 2: that's a whole story inside itself. Chad knows my mom's

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Speaker 2: from England. I can have dual citizenship. It's no problem,

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Speaker 2: you know. That's something that happens basically when you're a

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Speaker 2: wee young lad. So to me, it's it's not gonna

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Speaker 2: be a hard transition. To a lot of guys guy

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Speaker 2: was just meeting with in Vegas, I don't think they've

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Speaker 2: ever even left the country, let alone go to England.

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Speaker 2: So they're the ones that to me, will go back

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Speaker 2: to the dark books. And again there's ways around it.

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Speaker 2: It's just the normal better having to pay having already

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Speaker 2: try to make a winning betting and then they're having

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Speaker 2: to pay ten percent on their losses. I just can't

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Speaker 2: believe it. I can't believe it. I really can't. I

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Speaker 2: know how stupid a lot of the stuff in our

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Speaker 2: government is, but this one is. It's up there, and

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Speaker 2: what we're about to dive into, you know, the poly markets,

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Speaker 2: something that's going to help counteract this in many ways.

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Speaker 2: So I'm here. I'm excited to learn more about it

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Speaker 2: from Chris here because you know, to me and to

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Speaker 2: me a lot of other people, Chad, it was something

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Speaker 2: that really blew up when it came to politics, and

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Speaker 2: it's obviously going to try to take advantage of what's

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Speaker 2: about to happen right now with these sports books. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: very unique, interesting time we're living for sure, with the

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Speaker 2: sports puddy markets.

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Speaker 1: Hi, Chris, thanks for letting us sort of finish up

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Speaker 1: that conversation. But Simon brings up the politics, He brings

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Speaker 1: up polymarket for anyone listening, who because we haven't talked

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Speaker 1: a lot about Calshi, we haven't talked a lot about

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Speaker 1: sports trade, we haven't talked a lot about polymarket on

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Speaker 1: this show. Give people a primer. You are an expert

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Speaker 1: in this. You write for Prediction News, You've been covering

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Speaker 1: this for a long time at a professional level. Give

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Speaker 1: people a primer on what's happening in this space.

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Speaker 3: Sure, So you know, for those who don't know prediction

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Speaker 3: markets are, you know, they're in exchange where you can

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Speaker 3: buy and sell contracts on whether an event will happen,

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Speaker 3: and every contract is priced between one cent and ninety

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Speaker 3: nine cents, and the price ends up being how likely

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Speaker 3: that event is to happen. And you know, the more

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Speaker 3: valuable your contract is, the more likely it is to

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Speaker 3: pay out. Whinning contracts pay out a dollar each and

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Speaker 3: losing contracts get nothing. So it's this really cool, interesting

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Speaker 3: way to aggregate a lot of information and kind of

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Speaker 3: get a snapshot of a forecast if you're in it

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Speaker 3: for the forecasting, but if you're in it for the

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Speaker 3: gambling too, it's constantly live. So it's this you know,

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Speaker 3: really strong and unmatched live bet experience as well that

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Speaker 3: makes it really good for recreational betting. So if you

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Speaker 3: look at you know, sports Trade, and you know they've

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Speaker 3: been offering sports contracts since twenty twenty two, they've just

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Speaker 3: been doing it under state gambling law. So they've got

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Speaker 3: their licenses I think in five states now and they're

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Speaker 3: you know, safely considered a gambling company. Now. When Calshi

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Speaker 3: first launched, they were not offering sports or elections or

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Speaker 3: you know, bleeding over into these any of these other subjects.

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Speaker 3: They were all about you know, economics, finance, some pop culture.

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Speaker 3: But you know, sports was a red line for a while,

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Speaker 3: and elections was a hard line. But they'd been trying

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Speaker 3: since at least twenty twenty one or twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: to offer you know, first it was election or betting

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Speaker 3: on the midterms, and then they finally won their lawsuit

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Speaker 3: in October September twenty twenty four and were able to

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Speaker 3: finally launch in October. So, you know, there's just been

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Speaker 3: a lot of explosive growth and publicity surrounding pretty markets

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Speaker 3: during the twenty twenty four election, because that's when you

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Speaker 3: get your first you know, high volume commercial you know,

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Speaker 3: you know, really big regulated prediction market. I mean, yes,

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Speaker 3: polymarket is huge, but it's it's in the crypto space.

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Speaker 3: And it's not that it's not popular. It's not that

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Speaker 3: it doesn't have a ton of volume. It's just that

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Speaker 3: if you're a regular guy you know, you can either

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Speaker 3: go learn Web three and go learn how to play

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Speaker 3: with crypto and you know, figure out the wallets, or

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Speaker 3: you can just go to Calshi, throw down a debit

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Speaker 3: card and start betting.

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Speaker 1: Right. Calshi is legal in the United States. Polymarket is not.

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Speaker 1: Calcio is regulated by the CFTC, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

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Speaker 1: Polymarket is not sports trade, like you mentioned, has decided

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Speaker 1: to go through the state licensing process. To me, this

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Speaker 1: is what's so fascinating. Alex Kane, who started sports Trade,

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Speaker 1: wonderful guy, thoughtful, energetic, enthusiastic, really earnest years ago, was

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Speaker 1: a visionary and had this idea to start a prediction

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Speaker 1: exchange essentially a betting exchange based on sports, and he

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Speaker 1: went the route of getting regulated state by state as

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Speaker 1: a sports betting operator. Kelshy started by a couple of

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Speaker 1: people who got to know each other at MIT and

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Speaker 1: then became options traders as interns and places like Citadel

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Speaker 1: And then they were like, wait a second, people are

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Speaker 1: betting on these particular commodities based on who they think

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Speaker 1: is going to win this election. Can we just offer

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Speaker 1: markets on the elections and things like will the FED

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Speaker 1: raise interest rates? And they graduated from MIT, started this

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Speaker 1: business and they decided to get licensed by the CFTC,

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Speaker 1: which they are Since January, they have been offering markets

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Speaker 1: on sports and Chris this is where it's gotten really

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Speaker 1: interesting because calshi is offering, you know, markets contracts on

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, then they're offering markets on March Madness.

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Speaker 1: Now the majority of the trading volume on calshi and

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Speaker 1: I would recommend an addiction to what Chris does with

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Speaker 1: prediction news. Everyone should read Dustin Gouker. He's got a

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Speaker 1: great substack called the Vent Horizon about this stuff. He

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Speaker 1: did an email today that showed the volume traded on

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Speaker 1: calshi something like eighty percent of it is sports. And

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Speaker 1: so they're basically operating as an entity offering the ability

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Speaker 1: for people to predict the sports markets. I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to use the phrase betting at a national scale. And

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Speaker 1: they've bypassed the regulatory markets in the States. How is

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Speaker 1: that even possible?

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Speaker 3: Sure, well, this is one of the interesting things that's

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Speaker 3: really come to life. And you know, cause she's fired

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Speaker 3: first over elections, but especially over sports. The finance industry

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Speaker 3: is very comfortable with kind of these parallel regulations, these

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Speaker 3: parallel regulatory structures. So like, if you want to trade gold,

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Speaker 3: and this is something a former CYFTC larder told me

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Speaker 3: a while ago, but if you want to trade gold,

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Speaker 3: you can trade it as a commodity. That's a transaction

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Speaker 3: overseen by the CFTC. Or you can trade in a

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Speaker 3: gold e F T in in exchange trade and fun, well,

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Speaker 3: that's a transaction overseen by the SEC, different regulatory agency.

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Speaker 3: It's the same thing. You're training gold either way. And

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Speaker 3: you know, nobody really, you know, planned out these you know,

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Speaker 3: two different ways to make an identical trade, but it happened.

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Speaker 3: And you know, people who like markets are very excited

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Speaker 3: about having the different options to be able to make

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Speaker 3: their same trade in a different way. And that contrast

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Speaker 3: almost completely with the gambling industry, where everything, you know,

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Speaker 3: for good reason, has to be under one regulatory umbrella.

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Speaker 3: I mean, no one has ever described you know, sweet

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Speaker 3: stakes casinos or like gray market slot machines and gas

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Speaker 3: stations as you know great you know liquidity providers or

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Speaker 3: you know, great for pricing or anything like that. So

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Speaker 3: you know, I think that's one of the one of

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Speaker 3: the reasons that these two industries are really talking past

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Speaker 3: each other in court. Is just they're they're looking at

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Speaker 3: this completely differently.

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Speaker 1: Right. So, since cal She has offered these markets, they've

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Speaker 1: gotten cease and desists from i think seven states telling

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Speaker 1: them to stop. New Jersey, Maryland, a bunch of others.

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Speaker 1: They keep losing because they have this in promoter of

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Speaker 1: being a legal entity, a legitimate entity for offering these

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Speaker 1: markets from the CFTC. And what's interesting is Calsh includes

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Speaker 1: Donald from Junior as an advisor, and the incoming chairman

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Speaker 1: of the CFTC is a former board member of CALCI,

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Speaker 1: who in his hearings to be confirmed said I'm fine

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Speaker 1: with sports markets being part of commoderities exchanges. So you

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Speaker 1: know that's not going to change. That's just going to

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Speaker 1: continue to be the way it is.

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Speaker 3: If change happens, it's going to come from the courts.

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Speaker 3: It's not going to come from Brian Quintin's and the CFTC.

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Speaker 3: The District court in Maryland right now is one of

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Speaker 3: the interesting ones to watch because Navana and New Jersey

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Speaker 3: granted Calci's calamity injunction. They said, you're probably going to

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Speaker 3: win on the merits. You know, the federal preemption probably

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Speaker 3: applies here to you know, state gambling rigs. But the

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Speaker 3: Maryland judge, they he asked for a lot of supplemental briefs.

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Speaker 3: He said, you know, let's get some of these issues

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Speaker 3: on the table and really flesh him out. And you know,

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Speaker 3: one of the big briefs that came in a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks ago was from the Indian Gaming Commission, and

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Speaker 3: you know that that was probably one of the first

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Speaker 3: times that you know, one of the federal laws that

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Speaker 3: calshi sports contracts, could you know cross was that was

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Speaker 3: the first time that argument was really bent to out

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Speaker 3: really well. So the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act that you

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Speaker 3: know forms the foundation of Indian gaming, that's a federal law,

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Speaker 3: that's not a state law. And so while you know,

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Speaker 3: like I think briefs in New Jersey and Nevada like

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Speaker 3: listed the wire Act and PASPA and IGRA kind of

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Speaker 3: alongside each other saying hey, this could be an issue,

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Speaker 3: the tribal brief was really the first one where you

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Speaker 3: see the argument spelled out in detail. And so that

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Speaker 3: by itself is really interesting. And Judge Abilson choosing to

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Speaker 3: you know, allow the tribes to file their amicust brief

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Speaker 3: in Maryland is also interesting because Calhi originally didn't want that.

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Speaker 3: They were calling it, you know, unhelpful and too late,

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Speaker 3: which makes me think the tribal brief is stronger. So now,

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Speaker 3: I mean there's a potential turning point there. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you know, in the game of rock paper scissors, a

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Speaker 3: federal court beats a federal regulator. So if either the

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Speaker 3: District Court in Maryland or the Third Circuit in New Jersey,

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Speaker 3: you know, ruled that these contracts, you know, bleed into gaming,

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Speaker 3: then you know, we'll probably see a Supreme Court fight

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Speaker 3: and an escalation. But Maryland really is one of the

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Speaker 3: big turning points for for sports contracts in general. So

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Speaker 3: we still don't know how safe a haven cal She

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Speaker 3: is going to be for sports betters until those two

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Speaker 3: cases in particular progress a little bit further.

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Speaker 1: Simon. By the way, I mentioned before Dustin Gauker's event Horizon,

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Speaker 1: he had an email today that said it was seventy

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Speaker 1: percent of all volume at Cawshee was from sports led

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Speaker 1: by tennis baseball. And by the way, hot Dog contest,

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Speaker 1: the hot dog eating contest. Simon, You're like in the

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Speaker 1: middle of this and do you see prediction markets as

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Speaker 1: a viable alternative if you are a professional vetter who

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Speaker 1: gets limited at every operator, who's now going to be

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Speaker 1: taxed at a more disadvantageous rate. Do you look at

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Speaker 1: these is something that you'd want to dive into.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I've dove into it, but like we talked about,

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Speaker 2: I've only dove into a pre unique situations like politics

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Speaker 2: or the pope and things like that. So to me,

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Speaker 2: this is something else that you know. It's they're welcoming.

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Speaker 2: That's the biggest difference, right, They don't reject bets here.

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Speaker 2: They will take your money because they want people to

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Speaker 2: be in it. This is early days, Chad. Like the

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Speaker 2: parallel between this and when fantasy football was letting us

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Speaker 2: do those private tournaments for cash, and that sped us

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Speaker 2: up on this whole crazy world wind of what this

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Speaker 2: became of sports better being legalized in this country. This

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Speaker 2: feels like another kind of moment we're living in here

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Speaker 2: where I'd love to have your view on this, Chris.

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Speaker 2: Is is this going to be here in five years?

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Speaker 2: Is this going to be here in ten years? Or

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Speaker 2: is this just a flash in the pan. Are we

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Speaker 2: just living in this quick moment where they're kind of

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Speaker 2: figure out these little loopholes, but like you just said,

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Speaker 2: eventually a court will come on come down on them

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Speaker 2: with a hammer, and then they're just gonna be gone.

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Speaker 2: Like they just popped up for a year or two.

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Speaker 2: Now they're gone. Like, what's your view on this going forward?

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Speaker 3: I think election contracts have some I think they can last.

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Speaker 3: I think they have the ability to last. Sports is

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Speaker 3: going to be a little bit more up in the

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Speaker 3: air until these court cases are finally settled. If you

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Speaker 3: take a step back and look at the problem that

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Speaker 3: you know, Calshi solves for the finance industry. You know,

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Speaker 3: I mean chat you were talking about it earlier. But

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Speaker 3: you know, if you're an institutional trader and you want

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Speaker 3: to know, you know what, how like the Trump presidency

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Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen is going to affect you compared to

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Speaker 3: you know, a Clinton presidency, how's that gonna affect your portfolio?

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Speaker 3: You know, you have to guess how like the S

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Speaker 3: and P five hundred is going to react, And you

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Speaker 3: know you can just flat out get it wrong. A

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Speaker 3: lot of people, you know, short at the S and P.

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Speaker 3: Five hundred and twenty sixteen and they ended up losing

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Speaker 3: money because the SMP went up when Trump was elected.

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Speaker 3: So you know, now you can just hedge directly on

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Speaker 3: that event, and that possibility is open to ordinary people too,

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Speaker 3: although how many people are actually using it to hedge

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Speaker 3: at the retail level is an open question. It's always

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Speaker 3: going to be a minority of traders. But you know,

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Speaker 3: this is the regulatory trade off, and you can this

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Speaker 3: is like Hamilton Jefferson old you know how much speculation,

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Speaker 3: you know, do you allow for the benefits of hedging

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Speaker 3: for the small group of people. And it was really

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Speaker 3: obvious when you know, we were talking like early nineteen

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Speaker 3: hundreds and trying to protect farmers who were starving and

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Speaker 3: getting engaged by the railroads. You know, they needed some

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Speaker 3: price stability and they needed some assurance of some steady

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Speaker 3: and reliable income at a price that they could predict.

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Speaker 3: But you know, now you can do it on any event,

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Speaker 3: and you know we're gonna have to redecide how those

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Speaker 3: how we're going to balance those interests.

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Speaker 1: Chris handicapped this in another way, lack of a better term.

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Speaker 1: You know, you see a calshi, you see a poly market,

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Speaker 1: you see a sport trade. Do you feel like these

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Speaker 1: can become something that have widespread appeal, because right now

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Speaker 1: it feels like the volume comes largely from market makers

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Speaker 1: who are interested in playing in this space, experimenting in

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Speaker 1: this space. Can they find as you just mentioned, sort

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Speaker 1: of retail success.

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Speaker 3: Calshan's portrait, I think they can. The dream about sports is,

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Speaker 3: you know, they're very numerous and high volume, and you know,

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Speaker 3: ordinary people. If you go to like SBC, you know,

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Speaker 3: every couple of years there's a new panel on you know,

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Speaker 3: being the second screen during the game, and that you know,

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Speaker 3: second screen engagement, Well, a prediction market is your second

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Speaker 3: screen for anything you're mad about, and you know, is

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Speaker 3: there a story that pops up on social media that

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Speaker 3: you know kind of hit you where you live or

387
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Speaker 3: you can go beat on that on Calshi. Poly Market's

388
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Speaker 3: going to be harder, you're telling if you're talking about

389
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Speaker 3: retail success at polymarket, you're looking at widespread crypto adoption

390
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Speaker 3: and there's a strong crypto community and it's not that. Again,

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Speaker 3: it's not that polymarket isn't successful and that they have

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Speaker 3: no future. That's not true at all. It's just it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be hard to attract, you know, ordinary people. You're

394
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Speaker 3: like You're not gonna get that eighty year old guy

395
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Speaker 3: in Alabama betting on Trump to win the election on Polymarket,

396
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Speaker 3: that you will on Calci. So I think they're gonna

397
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Speaker 3: have to Polymarket is gonna have to overcome that. Polymarket

398
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Speaker 3: also has issues with their market resolution process. They's had

399
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Speaker 3: another scandal this week and the market on whether it's

400
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Speaker 3: Lensky war a suit to the Native.

401
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Speaker 1: Tell people about that, because that's you know, you're in

402
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Speaker 1: this space neck deep. I'm in the space waste deep.

403
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Speaker 1: And that that controversy, to me was the epitome of

404
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Speaker 1: what are some of the issues with all of these things? Sure?

405
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Speaker 3: So, I mean the big question if you're a prediction

406
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Speaker 3: market is, you know, once an event has happened, how

407
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Speaker 3: do you decide that it happened? Because money on the

408
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Speaker 3: line in some case hundreds of millions of dollars or

409
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Speaker 3: hundreds of yeah, hundreds of millions. So you know you

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Speaker 3: need a good process to you know, decide when an

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Speaker 3: event is curred and how you know you're going to

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Speaker 3: tell people that it actually happened. Cal She does. What

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Speaker 3: cal She does is they you know, list their resolution

414
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Speaker 3: terms under their market and they will link to the

415
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Speaker 3: you know, kind of third party authority that they're going

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Speaker 3: to use, whose data they are going to use to

417
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Speaker 3: settle that market. So if you're betting, you know, or

418
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Speaker 3: you're trading, you know exactly who is going to you know,

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Speaker 3: make the call that you know, we you know, have

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Speaker 3: an effective tariff rate of six percent whatever the market

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Speaker 3: is what poly market will do. Uh, they have that

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Speaker 3: same description, but it's a lot of reliance on one

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Speaker 3: just a consensus of credible reporting, which isn't bad most

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Speaker 3: of the time, but it also leaves this gray area.

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Speaker 3: That's issue number one and issue number two. Polymarket uses

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Speaker 3: a blockchain service. It's a product called the Optimistic Oracle,

427
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Speaker 3: the Oracle, and this is a like a cryptocurrency. You

428
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Speaker 3: can log in on coinbase and you can buy you know,

429
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 3: the UMA currency, and you use that to cast a

430
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 3: vote in poly markets markets and say, hey, I think

431
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 3: the event has happened. I think the market should resolve

432
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:23,719
Speaker 3: this way or that way. And since it's based on

433
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 3: how much UM a token you hold, how much of

434
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 3: this currency you hold, it's you know, kind of this

435
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 3: Gilded Age oligopoly now where a couple of very very

436
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 3: large traders can just take over the market. So you know,

437
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 3: their market based solutions they're so proud of is you know,

438
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 3: it's not a free market. It's a market where like

439
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 3: two I think two traders hold just over half of

440
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 3: all the UMA tokens. So there's it's not a good

441
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 3: way to resolve markets. Now, the consequence of that, getting

442
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 3: back to Zelenski suit, after Zelenski's Oval office confrontation with

443
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 3: Trump advance earlier.

444
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: It was earlier this year.

445
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 3: Covering politics is hard because there's just this time dilation.

446
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 1: February.

447
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 3: I still can't believe that was just February.

448
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 2: Anyway.

449
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 3: After that, you know, one of the jabs at Zelenski

450
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 3: was like, you don't even wear a suit and he's

451
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 3: in you know, military fatigues because he's you know, mid war,

452
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 3: and but he stepped down in the NATO summit with

453
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 3: with a suit that was designed by a you know,

454
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 3: designer who wanted to incorporate some military dress and things

455
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,719
Speaker 3: like that, but it was identifiably a suit. So the

456
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 3: market on whether so the polymarket market on whether Zelenski

457
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 3: would wear a suit should have settled to yes instead

458
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 3: of it resolved to know after several rounds of voting

459
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 3: and dispute, and it's because of these big um a whales,

460
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: these giant wealthy currency holders were able to just you know,

461
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 3: cast all the necessary votes to resolve the market in

462
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 3: a way that would get them more of their uma

463
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 3: tokens and more of their money. So that is that's

464
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: an ongoing issue that poly market has. They did it,

465
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: you know, late last year with like will Israel invade

466
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 3: Lebanon in September? Will they invade Syria by the end

467
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 3: of the year. Just a couple of these you know,

468
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 3: fuzzy terms like what is an invasion really and you know,

469
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 3: you know, kind of which time zone are we looking at?

470
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: And some of these issues. These really big whales can

471
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 3: take advantage of any fuzziness you know that the finest

472
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 3: lawyers in the world, you know, kind of do in court.

473
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 3: They use that same precision of language to try to

474
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 3: you know, try and resolve things their way. So Polymarket

475
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 3: has a structural problem that they really need to solve

476
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 3: because this goes back at least as far as back

477
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: as you know, late last fall, and certainly goes back further.

478
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: Well, it's worth a billion dollars. Now they can try

479
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: to figure it out, which is kind of insane, right,

480
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 1: and that sort of speaks to a little bit late nineties,

481
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 1: and then with sort of the dot com blindness, and

482
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: then speaks to social media euphoria and the investments that

483
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 1: took place in places like Facebook, places like Twitter, the

484
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: growth of something like Instagram to get bought for a

485
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 1: billion when it barely had any users or it was

486
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: still you know, in a huge growth state. That's a

487
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: lot of what this feels like to me, between the

488
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: Calshi's and the polymarkets, especially with the way they've been

489
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: able to raise and also like there's a day trading,

490
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 1: sports betting, crypto manna sphere, ethos, sort of a bro

491
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: economy that exists now that is helping to propel some

492
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: of these things. I'm wondering if you're seeing some of

493
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 1: that and you're reporting as well.

494
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, you're You're always seeing the influencers get

495
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 3: really excited about you know, prediction markets being the news

496
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 3: and you know, my mind, you know, the news is

497
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 3: the news. You know, you once she once a market

498
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 3: resolves in real time, it's it's really cool. I was

499
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 3: writing a story that included I think it led with

500
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 3: the big beautiful bill vote. How individual centers were gonna vote,

501
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 3: And while I was writing it, the vote was happening.

502
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: And I knew the vote was happening because you know,

503
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 3: Murkowski's odds, you know, spiked up to like ninety six percent,

504
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 3: and Collins was dropping like a rock. And you know,

505
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 3: I wasn't watching. I didn't have c Span in my

506
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 3: corner because that wasn't what the story was about, and

507
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:29,679
Speaker 3: I didn't have it up. I thought I had like

508
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 3: at least one or two more hours, to be honest,

509
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 3: But no, that was that was kind of wild to watch.

510
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 3: And prediction markets give you a great state of the race,

511
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 3: and I think they're still benefiting from you know, how

512
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 3: much earlier they called the race in twenty twenty four,

513
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: and how much more of a lead they showed Trump

514
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: having than polls did. But the forecasting piece of prediction

515
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 3: markets is a lot more nuanced than the hedging piece.

516
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 3: And there's a Columbia economist who to Columbia University economists

517
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 3: who you know, studied Polymarket five thirty eight and the

518
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,479
Speaker 3: economist polls side by side for thirteen competitive house races,

519
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 3: and Polymarket, you know, was never in first. Sometimes it

520
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 3: was the least effective pulling mechanisms. So for these really

521
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 3: smaller races, I think you can see polls do. My

522
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 3: prediction is polsill do pretty well in the midterms compared

523
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: to prediction markets, and then prediction markets will have another

524
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 3: moment of glory in the presidential one where history is

525
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: not as good a guide for forecasting, for forecasting the

526
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 3: presidential election, because you can get these you know, I mean,

527
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 3: Donald Trump's the French candidate in twenty fifteen. He was

528
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 3: you know, I don't think a polster would have necessarily

529
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 3: predicted that Donald Trump would you know, do really well

530
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 3: in electoral politics before he came on the scene in

531
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 3: twenty fifteen. But you test these new ideas in these

532
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 3: new characters the national level, and sometimes things take off,

533
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: and prediction markets are really good at bringing that new

534
00:29:56,120 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 3: information together, where polsters are relying on past history. So

535
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 3: I yeah, So I think there's gonna be a lot

536
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 3: more nuance that comes alive, you know, in the in

537
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 3: the forecasting space in particular, and I don't know that

538
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 3: that will dampen the enthusiasm for prediction markets. But you know,

539
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 3: I think they also benefit from you know, kind of

540
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 3: the self sufficiency of financial trading too. You know, the

541
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 3: idea that you can trade yourself and know the future

542
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 3: better than everybody else and you know, be the self

543
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 3: sufficient man. In particular, I mean I grew up in Texas.

544
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 3: I know what I know what those noises sound like.

545
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: But it's also I mean, those same things, those same

546
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 3: beliefs are you know, cognitive behavioral therapy for financial trading addicts.

547
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 3: There's a professor in California who's on the front edge

548
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 3: of trying to you know, prepare uh, you know, gambling

549
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 3: counselors as well to you know, properly treat people who

550
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 3: are using financial platforms as you know, gambling platforms and

551
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 3: you know, hiding behind well, I'm investing, I'm not gambling,

552
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 3: even though you know they're functionally gambling, even if their

553
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 3: activity that they're choosing is regulated under this different umbrella.

554
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 1: Simon. By the way, we've hit like the nirvana for

555
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 1: me where we are talking about the geekiest, most technical

556
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 1: stuff and then throwing in cognitive behavioral science. I don't

557
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 1: I feel like I should just end the podcast now

558
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: because it'll never be better for me, But I do

559
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: remember for you, Simon, election night, I'm just settling down.

560
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: My wife had insisted on inviting the neighborhood over for

561
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: a freaking party for election night. Everyone finally leaves. I'm

562
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: sitting on my couch. I'm about to watch John King

563
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: give me the results from Kalamazoo County and you're texting

564
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: me and you're saying it's over, and I'm like, what

565
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: are you talking about. I'm just sitting down to watch

566
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 1: the results, and you're like, check out the prediction markets.

567
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, it's a different world where I don't know

568
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 2: much about betting politics, but luckily I have people in

569
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 2: my life that do it professionally. And these guys texted

570
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: me at eight thirty. I took an incredible amount of positions,

571
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: bet a lot of money. I think I texted you

572
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 2: right before about nine o'clock and told you it was

573
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 2: over and that the market was about to move an

574
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 2: insane amount in the next thirty minutes. And you saw

575
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: Alive where it's like our money comes in, the public

576
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 2: follows that money because they don't know, they don't have

577
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: the inside news. Like these guys don't end Again, I

578
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: don't know how they do it, Chad, But like you said,

579
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 2: the predictive model of the markets is my favorite part.

580
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 2: Of election night that these guys know three four hours

581
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 2: before the general public and all these news media outlets.

582
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 2: It's one of the more interesting parts of the world

583
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 2: we live in in It's always fun picking those guys'

584
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 2: brains that do it and how some of them can

585
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 2: predict it a year or two out based on markets,

586
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: money trends, and general public feel and you know, it's

587
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 2: always interesting. It's just a different world. Where we talked

588
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 2: about Action. One of our biggest nights of a company was,

589
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: I believe in twenty twenty right with the election night

590
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 2: they crashed our site because we're traffic night. Ever, yeah,

591
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: we were kept updating the market right and where it

592
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: was that and people weren't going to Fox or CNN.

593
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 2: They were coming to Action to get the truth, and

594
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 2: the truth was telling them, now, this is what the

595
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 2: numbers are saying, this is who's going to win this election.

596
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, I love it. And again, this to me

597
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: is why I hope these markets do last, because it's

598
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 2: just another tool to use in another way to make money.

599
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: You're a great follow on Twitter at growlacracy, and this

600
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: is really interesting stuff and really important stuff that I

601
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: think is going to impact anyone who has an interest

602
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 1: in this show, because it will become more accessible and

603
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 1: available to people as compliments potentially to what people are

604
00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 1: doing regularly with places like DraftKings fandor a fanatics. Last question,

605
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: you were just at I believe the Manifest conference about

606
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: a month ago or so. Explain to people what that

607
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: is and then tell people the most interesting thing that was,

608
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: the most mind blowing thing or the most oh my god,

609
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 1: if this really happens, it's crazy thing from the conference.

610
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 3: Oh man, how to explain Manifest because any Silver's new book,

611
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 3: he spent some time just describing it. So Manifest is

612
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 3: basically it's half conference and half festival. So it's this

613
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 3: gathering of you know, really trying to attract big name stars.

614
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 3: So like you know Nate Silver, Jesse Richardson at Political

615
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 3: Kiwi on X. He's a great political trader, you know,

616
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:50,399
Speaker 3: David Shore, great progressive democratic polster. Richard Henania a very

617
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 3: good conservative punditum. He's not a polster, but he's he's

618
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 3: actually pretty a commentary. He's a he leaves, he's a

619
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 3: libertarian who had to come to Jesus moment about Trump

620
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 3: earlier this year. So he was interesting to watch, and

621
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 3: he also did a really good job, in hindsight of

622
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 3: predicting Donald Trump's rise. So and when you get people

623
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 3: like that who are giving talks, and then you have

624
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 3: all these you know, really uh kind of quirky technical folks,

625
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 3: the the the the sexploration people, uh, the sex influencers

626
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 3: like Ala are also there. There, there's you know, it's

627
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 3: all about body positivity and kind of intellectualizing of sexuality

628
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 3: as well. So a lot of different uh intellectual spears

629
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 3: all come together at Manifest at this campus just off

630
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 3: of off Berkeley, and it's a it's a really cool

631
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 3: space and you know, definitely worth It was definitely worth

632
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 3: going to for sure. But the most mind blowing thing

633
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 3: for me about that trip was the idea of the

634
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 3: looming rise of AI traders and l l M traders.

635
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: So you know, l ms can already like chat epte

636
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 3: and research a trade for you and wholesome sources and perplexity.

637
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 3: AI can you know, give you some trading advice and

638
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 3: do some research for you. We're getting very close to

639
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 3: arguably within the next four years, according to at least

640
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 3: once today. I was shown there of AI traders who

641
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 3: match the actually of so called super forecasters, people who

642
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 3: are just very very accurate traders beyond what experts and

643
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: even what wise crowds can can achieve. So the rise

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00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 3: of AI traders is going to have some hard questions,

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00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 3: and I think the free to play and crypto platforms

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00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 3: are gonna have to deal with it first. You know,

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00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 3: right now, every user should be a human trader on

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00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 3: a regulated free money or real money site like Calshie. Right.

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00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 3: You can't have counterfeit people on there, even if you're

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00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 3: using AI to assist. But you know, there's at least

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00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 3: one star of there called few Tour, another prediction market site,

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00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 3: and you know they're already preparing their ux to have

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00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 3: you know, fully autonomous AI traders with their own counts.

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00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 3: So the IAI wave is not just you know, it's

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00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 3: not just coming in for the white collar drops. Jobs

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00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 3: are looking at traders too, and pretty soon Betters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Chris Girlocker, fucking awesome, man. That was great. Follow

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00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 1: Chris on Twitter at Girlocker, see check him out at

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00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 1: prediction News. This is a fascinating space that people need

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00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:27,240
Speaker 1: to pay paying attention to. So thanks thanks for jumping on, brother,

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00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. The favorites will return with our next

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00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: episode of the show Tuesday. Action Network YouTube page. Download

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Speaker 1: us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods,

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Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.

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Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift Until next time. Love you. Action

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Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or someone

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Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem. Was available twenty

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Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred gambler