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Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grudowski. Thank

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Speaker 1: you for being here for another week. Very excited. This

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Speaker 1: is a jam packed week with news. You have the

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Speaker 1: Pope's funeral over the weekend, the Canadian federal election today.

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Speaker 1: My birthday is tomorrow, if he wants to shout that out.

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Speaker 1: And Trump's one hundredth day in office is on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: So a very busy week, a very exciting week to do,

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Speaker 1: and I want to talk to you about the pinnacle

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Speaker 1: of Wednesday. About Trump's first one hundred days in office.

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Speaker 1: Technically it's his second one hundred first days in office

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Speaker 1: because it's, you know, the first non consecutive presidence in

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Speaker 1: scuover Cleveland. I don't know what you call it, but

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Speaker 1: that's what it is. Going into his second term, many

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Speaker 1: in the media expected Trump to be a lame duck

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Speaker 1: president that they couldn't do very much because he only

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Speaker 1: had one term to serve unless they change the constitution

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Speaker 1: and he can run for a third term, which I'm

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Speaker 1: going to guess is unlikely. So here are some numbers

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Speaker 1: behind Trump's second one hundred days. He has so far

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Speaker 1: issued one hundred and thirty seven executive order, a record

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Speaker 1: breaking number, signed five billion to law and stated that

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Speaker 1: he would put tariffs of over eleven percent on fifty

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Speaker 1: seven countries. Now always passed relatively few laws, Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: and Georgie of b Bush signed seven during their first

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Speaker 1: one hundred days. Barack Obama signed eleven bill Clinton had

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Speaker 1: twenty one, and actually Trump's in his first terms first

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Speaker 1: first one hundred days signed the most, a twenty four

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Speaker 1: according to the UK and Dependent. I think when you

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Speaker 1: look down and you boil downs for Trump's first one

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Speaker 1: hundred days of his second term, you come down to

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Speaker 1: three big issues. The three issues that have defined these

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Speaker 1: last one hundred days defined it, especially in the eyes of

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Speaker 1: the media. They are DOGE, immigration and trade. So let's

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Speaker 1: start with DOGE. At the behest of the president, Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk began working to slash spending and make the federal

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Speaker 1: government more efficient. He announced the last week. Elon Musk

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Speaker 1: announced last week rather that he's going to step away

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Speaker 1: slightly from the role as I guess he's not head

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Speaker 1: of DOGE but overseeing consulting DOGE, but the team he's

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Speaker 1: created it will still be in charge of the federal

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Speaker 1: agency's dog is set to sunset on July fourth, twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six. So I guess for the next fourteen months

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Speaker 1: they'll continue. Now, while the group received a lot of

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Speaker 1: praise from conservatives who cheered that he's going to end

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Speaker 1: and he's ended contracts and useless federal agencies and programs

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Speaker 1: like USAID because he gutted that one, musk has claimed

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Speaker 1: that dog has saved taxpayers one hundred and fifty billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot of money. Heck, I think when you've

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Speaker 1: deficits this high, anything in the billions as far as

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Speaker 1: cutting is a lot of money. But the one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty billion dollar claim is just fifteen percent of

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Speaker 1: what Trump promised. When it comes to waste for ant abuse,

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Speaker 1: I remember he originally promised two trillion dollars in cuts,

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Speaker 1: and then when he president came into office, it was

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Speaker 1: one trillion. Now it's got to me it was one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion. When the New York Times looked

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Speaker 1: at the numbers, it gets a little murkier. According to

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Speaker 1: the New York Times, sixty percent or ninety two point

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Speaker 1: two billion of that one hundred and fifty billion dollars

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Speaker 1: came from uniemized savings things that are very hard to prove.

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Speaker 1: The savings that are easy to prove, that they can

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Speaker 1: justifiably prove is thirty two point five billion in itemized grants,

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Speaker 1: twenty four point eight billion in itemized contracts, and three

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Speaker 1: hundred and ninety seven million in itemized leases. Basically empty

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Speaker 1: offices of the building that the government was wasting money

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Speaker 1: on it empty offices and buildings across DC. So from

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Speaker 1: what we can itemize from savings, dough just save tax

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Speaker 1: payers that we know of. Definitely that we know of

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Speaker 1: fifty eight billion dollars. Now that's not nothing. I believed

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Speaker 1: in order to balance a budget, you need to cut

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Speaker 1: anywhere you possibly can. I'm all for cutting wasteful spending

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Speaker 1: and to do whatever they can. And it's important for

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Speaker 1: Trump because he needs to sit there in quote unquote

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Speaker 1: pay for tax cuts. He needs to sit there and

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Speaker 1: try to balance the budget. It's part of his campaign

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Speaker 1: from US. But DOGE as a whole came with a

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Speaker 1: lot of attacks on both Trump and Elon Musk. Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk's negative numbers have increased substantially during his time at DOGE,

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Speaker 1: and we saw a series of lawsuits over whether who

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Speaker 1: we could fire, what contracts he could end, and what

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Speaker 1: happened to any sensitive federal data he access was the

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Speaker 1: apple worth the bite. I guess we'll see, but Doge

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Speaker 1: hasn't seen the level of spending cuts that they hoped for.

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Speaker 1: But I guess stories on Doge seem so thirty days

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Speaker 1: ago in this administration. The current crisis the media is

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Speaker 1: really obsessing over is Trump's handling of mass deportations. So

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Speaker 1: let's get some numbers on that. The numbers of illegal

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Speaker 1: aliens who were apprehended our southern border in both February

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Speaker 1: and March of twenty twenty five were twenty two thousand,

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Speaker 1: seven hundred and twenty six. That's according to the Border Patrol.

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Speaker 1: Those are both during months that Trump was fully president,

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Speaker 1: so he was fully in charged. Twenty two thousand, seven

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty six aliens apprehended at the border, with

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Speaker 1: very very very few being released. In the year prior

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Speaker 1: February and March twenty twenty four, when Biden was still president,

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Speaker 1: seventy two illegal aliens came to our southern border, with

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Speaker 1: many being released into the interior of the United States.

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Speaker 1: So just by enforcement the law already in the books,

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Speaker 1: but Trump did not get any new laws. When it

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Speaker 1: comes to the border, you just use the laws that

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Speaker 1: are currently on the books. President Trump has saw a

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Speaker 1: ninety four percent reduction of border crossings over a one

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Speaker 1: year period. It is truly remarkable. He proved we did

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Speaker 1: not need new laws, We just needed a president and

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Speaker 1: political will power to s that they're enforced the current laws. Now,

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Speaker 1: we signed a number of executive orders on I leege immigration,

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Speaker 1: most notably ending birthright citizenship for illegal aliens and temporary

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Speaker 1: visa holders, DNA testing of illegal aliens to say third

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Speaker 1: country agreements remain in Mexico, ending catcher release holding refugee resettlement,

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Speaker 1: canceling Joe Biden's absolutely ridiculous CHNV program, which would have

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Speaker 1: protected migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela from being

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Speaker 1: deported while they applied for asylum, and he used the

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Speaker 1: Alien Enemies Act to deport gang members and send them

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Speaker 1: to a maximum security prison in Al Salvador. Now, most

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Speaker 1: of these executive orders are tied up in litigation with

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Speaker 1: district court judges giving an unprecedented amount of nationwide injunctions,

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Speaker 1: more than any president in history, and I believe actually

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Speaker 1: almost as many if not more than all the nationwide

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Speaker 1: injunctions among every president in history combined. Very few have

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Speaker 1: made their way up to the Supreme Court so far.

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Speaker 1: Some are slowly making their way. The executive order over birthright,

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Speaker 1: citizenship or arguments begin or in mid May, so we'll

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Speaker 1: have to wait and see. We'll see how many of

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Speaker 1: these executive orders are given the green light by SCOTUS,

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Speaker 1: how President Trump handles the decision, how he continues to

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Speaker 1: execute his executive authority. Definitely, Stephen Miller has shown that

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Speaker 1: he's committed to the project of mass deportation, which Trump

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Speaker 1: promised during the campaign, and he's using every available law

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Speaker 1: at his disposal.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: While it's difficult to get an exact reading of how

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Speaker 1: many illegal aliens currently are in the country, that in

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Speaker 1: the country that we're currently deported, these are called removals

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Speaker 1: by ICE. As of March nineteenth, which is the last

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Speaker 1: available day that they gave a hard number, they're supposed

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Speaker 1: to be another one in the next few days as

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Speaker 1: of this recording, but President Trump removed twenty eight thousand

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Speaker 1: illegal aliens from the interior of the United States from

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Speaker 1: his time in office on January twentieth until March nineteenth.

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Speaker 1: Here's where the data gets tricky. Donald Trump is outpacing

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden when it comes to removals people that are

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Speaker 1: in the country that he is arresting with ICE and

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Speaker 1: deporting that are leaving the country. But the media can

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Speaker 1: categorize it and has categorized it by saying that actually

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Speaker 1: he lacks Biden because but ICE also is responsible for

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Speaker 1: removing illegal aliens detained at the border. Well, as I

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Speaker 1: said before, Trump's law enforcing the laws on the books

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Speaker 1: has caused border crossings to drop by ninety four percent,

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Speaker 1: so there are fewer illegal aliens to remove crossing the

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Speaker 1: border to begin with. You could make the argument that

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Speaker 1: Biden deported more people. It's a argument not based completely

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Speaker 1: in truth. It's an argument used to push a narrative.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, there's there are some facts into it.

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Speaker 1: But when you really have to look is interior deportations.

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Speaker 1: Interior deportations, and when it comes to interior deportations, Trump

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Speaker 1: is absolutely outpacing Joe Biden. In the first seven weeks,

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Speaker 1: ICE also arrested forty eight thousand illegal aliens living in

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Speaker 1: the interior of the United States and put them into

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Speaker 1: tention centers that is a thirty percent increase compared to

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Speaker 1: the year prior. So no matter what the media says,

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Speaker 1: interior deportations interior enforcement under President Trump are up compared

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Speaker 1: to his predecessor. And lastly, let's talk about trade. Just

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Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, President Trump announced that it was

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Speaker 1: Liberation Day from the Rose Garden and that he announced

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Speaker 1: tariffs on dozens of countries as well as a blanket

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Speaker 1: ten percent tariff on all products entering the United States.

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Speaker 1: And to say it went less well than expected as

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Speaker 1: an understatement. Now, of all the issues Trump has campaigned

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Speaker 1: on over the last decade, nothing means more to him

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Speaker 1: than trade and balances and the trade deficit. He has

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Speaker 1: spoken about this going back to before I was born.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's talked about this for decades, that he

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Speaker 1: wants to rebalance how we do trade. So here he is,

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Speaker 1: during his second term, doing exactly what he's always wanted

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Speaker 1: to do. Ten percent tariff on all important goods, increased

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Speaker 1: tariffs on some countries that have tariffs on American goods

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Speaker 1: they're called retaliatory tariffs. And at one hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: five percent tariff on all goods from China. I've talked

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Speaker 1: a lot on this podcast of why I think it's

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Speaker 1: important to try to reshore American manufacturing. I can't understand

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Speaker 1: how did the administration only tackle remasturing manufacturing from just

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Speaker 1: the tariff perspective. I've said constantly, I've wrote about this,

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Speaker 1: how federal contracts are a really important part of the

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Speaker 1: narrative that I don't think the administration is used enough of.

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Speaker 1: It's also daunting to try to understand and find the

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Speaker 1: reasoning and the end goal behind these tariffs. Depending on

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Speaker 1: who you're listening to, whether it be Peter Navarro or

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Speaker 1: Commerce Secretary Lutnik or Treasury Secretary best Set, you're hearing

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Speaker 1: different things. If anything, the biggest problem of the latter

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Speaker 1: part of the Trump's one hundred days of this administration

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Speaker 1: is that they haven't been on the same page of times,

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Speaker 1: leading into complicating and sometimes worrying effects in the economy.

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Speaker 1: The tariffs have caused a lot of volatility, with the

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Speaker 1: value of the dollar decreasing, the Dow Jones, the NASDAK,

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Speaker 1: and the S and P five hundred all losing about

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Speaker 1: ten percent of their value since the day that Trump

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Speaker 1: was sworn into office. Now, the volatility and the fear

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Speaker 1: of tariffs have also worked in Trump's favor. This sort

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Speaker 1: of sort of Madman approach to economic policy was successful

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Speaker 1: in getting some companies to announced that they're bringing manufacturing back.

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Speaker 1: According to CBS News, Johnson and Johnson Abbott Laboratories, Apple, Shabani,

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Speaker 1: Crazy Art, Honda, Hondai, Roachi, Navidia, and TSMC all announced

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Speaker 1: multi billion dollar plans to bring manufacturing back into the

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Speaker 1: United States because the fear of tariffs, so they're going

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Speaker 1: to start making some stuff in America. That part is

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Speaker 1: a win, even though it's been very messy and the

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Speaker 1: stock market has been veried down and sellectible. You know,

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Speaker 1: tons of bad stories with this administration. Now. While I

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Speaker 1: think trade, immigration, does are the biggest parts of his

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Speaker 1: first one hundred days, they're the issues that define it

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Speaker 1: in the media and to a lot of voters, they're

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Speaker 1: not the only things he's tackles. He's improved military recruitment

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Speaker 1: and retention rates. He's been working on this piece deal

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Speaker 1: with Ukraine and Russia. Let's see where that goes. He's

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Speaker 1: pushed Arnato allies to increase more spending and defense, and

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Speaker 1: he's working on his tax policy. It's probably going to

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Speaker 1: be the most significant piece of legislation during his term

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Speaker 1: in office is this new tax till he's working on,

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Speaker 1: no tax on tips, and no tax on social Security,

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Speaker 1: possibly a millionaire's tax. I mean, who knows. If there's

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Speaker 1: anything though that I've been surprised by in Trump's first

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Speaker 1: one hundred days is He's made actually no judicial appointments.

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Speaker 1: He's not a single one. Remember during first Trump's first term,

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Speaker 1: he was breaking numbers, breaking records as far as judicial appointments,

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Speaker 1: and so far he has appointed exactly zero people to

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Speaker 1: the federal judiciary, despite there being forty five vacancies on

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Speaker 1: federal courts, three in the appellate court, and forty two

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Speaker 1: in district courts. So, with all this information I just

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Speaker 1: gave you, how does this affect him in the eyes

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Speaker 1: of voters? How does this affect him in the polls?

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Speaker 1: According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump's approval

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Speaker 1: writing in April from April seventh to April twenty third

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Speaker 1: stands at forty six point one percent, while his disapproval

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Speaker 1: number is at fifty one point six percent. Of course,

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Speaker 1: not all polls are created equally, and I'm looking only

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Speaker 1: at certain high quality pollings that give their cross tabs

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Speaker 1: or the crosstabs available to the public. That's really important

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Speaker 1: to me. I'm looking primarily at Signal, Pew Research, Fox News, Atlas, Intel,

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Speaker 1: and CBS. The narrative is basically the same. Americans are

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Speaker 1: pretty mixed on Doge. They're very unhappy about tariffs, they're

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Speaker 1: very work with the economy, and they are very much

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Speaker 1: giving him the thumbs up when it comes to immigration,

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Speaker 1: although they do want him to listen to court orders

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Speaker 1: when it comes to people who are deported under stranger

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Speaker 1: circumstances or there's a lot of litigation over it, but

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Speaker 1: overall the port mass deportation. But among these major polishers

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Speaker 1: with cross taps open, Trump has a forty five percent

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Speaker 1: of crole rating. It stands at fifty percent with men,

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Speaker 1: forty percent with women fifty percent, with white voters twenty

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Speaker 1: one percent, with black voters forty percent, with Latinos forty

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Speaker 1: six percent, with seniors thirty seven percent, with voters under thirty,

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Speaker 1: forty three percent among voters with a college degree, forty

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Speaker 1: eight percent of those without a college degree, and thirty

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Speaker 1: six percent among independents. That isn't wonderful when it comes

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Speaker 1: to swing voters, especially for Republicans going to the next

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Speaker 1: year's midterm. He's going to have to increase those numbers

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Speaker 1: big time and try to get some stability in the

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Speaker 1: economy and get the economy growing again. That will be

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Speaker 1: a major point of contention for congressional Republicans going into

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Speaker 1: the midterms and President Trump now once once again, they

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Speaker 1: aren't great numbers with swing voters, but among Trump's base,

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Speaker 1: they are extremely loyal. Almost no Trump voters are sitting

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Speaker 1: there and saying I made a mistake. It's very, very

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Speaker 1: high retention among his base, which Trump has kept. He's

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Speaker 1: kept that for almost a decade at this point. He's

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Speaker 1: kept his base together through thick and thin, and that

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Speaker 1: is enough to keep him in office and to wield

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Speaker 1: significant influence over the party. And when it comes to

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Speaker 1: keeping the promises he made to those voters, Trump's done

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Speaker 1: a pretty good job in the first one hundred days.

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Speaker 1: Mark Puto, a brilliant journalist from Axios, is my guess

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Speaker 1: he's up next. We're going to talk about the first

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Speaker 1: one hundred days, what these policies mean, and what it's

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Speaker 1: looking like in Trump's first one hundred days, his legacy

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Speaker 1: and the upcoming midterms, Stay tuned. Our guest this week

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Speaker 1: is my buddy Mark Puto. He is a brilliant reporter

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Speaker 1: from Axios. Mark, thank you for being on.

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Speaker 2: Owe you money for that kind introduction.

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Speaker 1: Now, Mark, you are one of the best in the business.

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Speaker 1: So April thirtieth is Trump's one hundredth day in office.

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Speaker 1: How would you characterize his first one hundred days.

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Speaker 2: I would divide it in half. There was and I

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Speaker 2: should count the number of days to have a better

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Speaker 2: specific answer, But there was the Trump administration up until

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Speaker 2: Liberation Day, and then there was Liberation Day. On Liberation

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Speaker 2: Day being that period where he's like okay, tariff time

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Speaker 2: and that's where things got really chopd well.

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Speaker 1: I say it's over three issues. Has been the first

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Speaker 1: one hundred days. There was the doge, which was the first,

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Speaker 1: which was the first apocalypsecorning the media. Then there was

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Speaker 1: immigration enforcement, which is the second, and then the tariffs

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Speaker 1: were the third. That's the three headed apocalypse of the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration's first one hundred days. Some more successful than

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Speaker 1: the others. Doge it looks like when they have hard

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Speaker 1: numbers of what actually saved save about fifty seven billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: not a small amount in my opinion, but far less

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Speaker 1: than what everyone was saying was going to happen.

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Speaker 2: Like Elon Musk talking about two trillion trillion and one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty billion. Yeah, yeah, that's that's most.

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Speaker 1: Most hundred billion is un itemized deductions that they don't

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Speaker 1: know where he's talking about it from. So, but fifty

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Speaker 1: seven billion is a hard number. He is announced on

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Speaker 1: Tuesday he's stepping away from the daily data day activities.

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Speaker 1: Dose is supposed to sunset in July fourth, twenty twenty six. Overall,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's if it's left the impression

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Speaker 1: the legacy it was supposed to do, and I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it's an overwhelming success. I kind of are

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Speaker 1: on the side of it's probably more more or less not.

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Speaker 2: It has all of the quality of over promising and

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Speaker 2: under delivering, right with an added dose of sort of

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Speaker 2: kind of the chaos on top of it. Well, when

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Speaker 2: you talk about the three headed monster, I mean two

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Speaker 2: of those I generally kind of ignore because to your point,

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Speaker 2: those were sort of mainstream media freak ass, right, they

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Speaker 2: didn't really get into the public mind, to the public pocketbook.

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Speaker 2: When the stock markets started going sort of haywire with

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Speaker 2: the Trump tariffs and the mixed messaging and the two

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Speaker 2: steps forward, one step back, another step to the side

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Speaker 2: that was different up until that point. One of the

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Speaker 2: folks at the White House I had spoken to talked

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Speaker 2: about how they kept a calendar and they were happy,

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Speaker 2: and they said, every day, you know, I put either

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Speaker 2: a W you know when, loss or a draw. And

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Speaker 2: at first it was just all WS. Now I haven't

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Speaker 2: spoken to them again, but there have been far fewer

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Speaker 2: wus since the tariff situation in drama has taken over.

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Speaker 1: Well, I would say that dose is kind of I mean,

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Speaker 1: I guess fifty seven billions thirty seven billion is not

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Speaker 1: a loss, but it's not what they promised. On immigration,

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Speaker 1: interior deportations far exceed Joe Biden's thirty percent increase of

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Speaker 1: people detained. When they say that the deportations were higher

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Speaker 1: under Biden, they're including people who were returned away at

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Speaker 1: the border. Will Since there's been a ninety six percent

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Speaker 1: reduction of border apprehensions, which is the actual amount of

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Speaker 1: it was like ninety five point nine percent reduction, there

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Speaker 1: are less people to turn away at the border. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: if you look at just interior enforcement, that number is

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Speaker 1: up significantly. What I and we'll see what happens when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the actual deportations of all these executive orders,

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Speaker 1: and the big gem, in my opinion, the big big prize,

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Speaker 1: if he could get, is the Supreme Court ruling on

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Speaker 1: birthright citizenship for non citizens, for illegal aliens and temporary

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Speaker 1: vise holders. That will be the if he can get that.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he will be able to, but

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Speaker 1: if he can, it will be the biggest victory I

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Speaker 1: think on the right when it comes to immigration. And

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Speaker 1: I don't even know since Eisenhower, it's a long time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I find it hard to believe. I'm not a

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Speaker 2: constitutional scholar, but when I read the plane language the

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Speaker 2: fourteenth Amendment, it's hard for me to see how the

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Speaker 2: Court is going to side with the president. I understand

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Speaker 2: there are these other are these historical readings, historic historical

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Speaker 2: or historical historical? That is, at the time they were

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Speaker 2: talking about slaves, they weren't talking about immigrants. Today's immigration

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Speaker 2: is different now than it was then. Essentially didn't exist

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Speaker 2: back then. But to the degree the Supreme Court is

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Speaker 2: a political body, and I think all bodies are political

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Speaker 2: bodies to a degree when they have human beings on them,

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Speaker 2: especially those in the government process. Trump's legal team and

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Speaker 2: his administration have increasingly sort of picked fights with the

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Speaker 2: courts that it might not needed to have picked. And

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Speaker 2: so I think it's fair to say that if and

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Speaker 2: I'm using a lot of weasel words, if there was

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Speaker 2: sort of some goodwill before where it's like, oh, let's

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Speaker 2: give them the benefit of the doubt, I think some

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Speaker 2: of that's exhausted with all but the really hardcore conservatives

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Speaker 2: on the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 1: Why is it because of the not listening to the

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Speaker 1: lower course decisions on border on deportations.

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Speaker 2: I think so. Yeah, And remember Roberts. Justice Roberts took

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Speaker 2: that sort of extraordinary step of kind of rebuke might

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Speaker 2: be too strong a verb, but you know, sort of

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Speaker 2: telling Trump like, hey, you know, back off criticizing these

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Speaker 2: judges just for doing their jobs. I think that that

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Speaker 2: was notable. That having been said, I do think that

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Speaker 2: they are going to be able to get a number

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Speaker 2: of victories out of the court on immigration. Regarding you know,

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Speaker 2: the big case Kilmar Abrigo Garcia. The the Supreme Court

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Speaker 2: has already signified its discomfort in telling having the judicial

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Speaker 2: branch tell the executive branch, Hey, uh, we're going to

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Speaker 2: tell you how to conduct foreign policy now that this

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Speaker 2: guy is overseas. It's a really messy case. My conspiracy

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Speaker 2: minded hat and when I wear it makes me think

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Speaker 2: that maybe they chose this case for a reason, but

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Speaker 2: it's probably a little more organic. My guess is there

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Speaker 2: was an Ice agent in Maryland, in the Baltimore area

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Speaker 2: who knew Kilmar, who wanted to get him. And now

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Speaker 2: that there's you know, the.

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Speaker 3: Trump regime, the Trump administration's back, they're like, okay, buddy,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna get you.

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Speaker 2: And so they got him. They got Killmar in the system.

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Speaker 2: Now it's a question did someone actually know that there

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Speaker 2: was a deep a withhold on deporting him to El

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Speaker 2: Salvador or not. I'm not sure. But the bottom line

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Speaker 2: is is that he was deported to El Salvador unlawfully

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Speaker 2: or in violation of court order. And now here we

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Speaker 2: are right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just and this is I guess it's

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Speaker 1: a bigger conversation then we can afford. And I'm not

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Speaker 1: a legal brain either, but I just I think that

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Speaker 1: I think when they give the courts give these temporary

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Speaker 1: protections from deportation out of fear or intimidation, and then

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Speaker 1: that that that what would have caused fear for your

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Speaker 1: life has has ended. In the case of of of this,

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Speaker 1: of the of the Maryland man is this rival gang?

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Speaker 1: The rival gang doesn't exist anymore, So what is your

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Speaker 1: fear at a deportation anymore? And that's I mean predates this.

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Speaker 1: There were cases like in Honduras where there was an

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Speaker 1: earthquake and people were here for twenty something years out

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Speaker 1: of fear for their life, or an earthquake on a

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Speaker 1: temporary protector.

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Speaker 2: So earthquaker was a hurricane Mitch.

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Speaker 1: I was Hurricane Mitch. That was it? Yeah, but it

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Speaker 1: was twenty something years ago and they were still here

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Speaker 1: on a temporary protecting status over a hurricane from twenty

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Speaker 1: years ago, right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it just goes to show that a lot

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Speaker 2: of things, once once they're called temporary, really aren't temporary.

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Speaker 2: There is, of course, the media coverage angle of this.

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Speaker 2: The the a lot of people in mainstream media are

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Speaker 2: elighting some of the more complicating aspects of a Brago

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Speaker 2: Garcia's story. If the reports out of Tennessee are true,

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Speaker 2: where he was stopped driving a vehicle of a guy

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Speaker 2: who had been busted for human smuggling, and he had

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Speaker 2: a bunch of people in the car he wasn't related to,

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Speaker 2: who all gave the same address that he did. Like, well,

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Speaker 2: maybe we should look at whether or not the Fed's

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Speaker 2: got it right that this guy was engaged in.

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Speaker 4: Unlawful activities if you, I mean, by the left making

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Speaker 4: him the face the poster boy of the perfect illegal

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Speaker 4: immigant who should never have been deported.

432
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 1: If it goes left and there is you know, a

433
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: literal or figurative body in the closet, it's a real

434
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: problem for Democrats. It kind of undermines their entire argument

435
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 1: for any stopping any future deportations under President Trump. So

436
00:23:55,400 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 1: but overall, on illegal immigration, Trump has been more a

437
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: pretty big win overall successful by far.

438
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: I mean, he's delivering on by large on what he said.

439
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 2: I haven't even said. I do understand that the civil

440
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 2: libertarian argument that you know, a court order is a

441
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 2: court order and you shouldn't violate it, even if I'm.

442
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 1: Not yeah, I'm not I'm not making I'm not giving

443
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 1: I'm just saying. I'm saying as far as promises to voters,

444
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 1: go I think on immigration is probably one of the

445
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 1: biggest runaway successes. Inflation has certainly gone down. Despite what

446
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: I mean. You should live in the media. There's breadlines

447
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: out of everyone's door. Now let's go to tariff. Tariffs

448
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: are problem. Tariffs are what I don't understand, Mark, and

449
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 1: you are you. I pay attention to the news, but

450
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: you write the news. So maybe you can understand if

451
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 1: you listen to Peter Navarro, if you listen to the

452
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: Secretary of Commerce, and if you look at the Secretary

453
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: of Treasury, they all have different reasons of why we're

454
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: doing these tariffs. They all have different end goals for

455
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: why we're doing these tariffs. Okay, so if you listen

456
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: to and maybe I'm wrong, so correct me wrong. Record

457
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 1: of the Peter Navarro story is we're going to basically

458
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: a neoliberalism as we know it, and change the way

459
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: we do international economics and become named meticulals mercantile, mercantile

460
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: nation in one way or the other. If you listened

461
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: to best set the Secretary of the Treasury, it's to

462
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 1: end all these opposing tariffs on us. We'll have real

463
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 1: free trade except for China. China is its own thing,

464
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: and then if you listen to the Commerce Secretary, it's

465
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: somewhere in between, but his own kind of thing that

466
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: he's doing on his own. Why hasn't the administration seemed

467
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 1: to have one single narrative for the last three weeks?

468
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 2: I touched on this to plug my own story in Axios,

469
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 2: in a story called Trump's Tariff Brain, Inside Trump's Tariff Brain.

470
00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:00,040
Speaker 2: The answer is all of the above. Donald Trump he

471
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 2: wants to do lots of things with tariffs. And if

472
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: you understand that, Donald Trump has been talking about other

473
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 2: countries have ripped us off for you know years. I

474
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: mean first he first gave us in a speech in

475
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty seven, thirty eight years ago. Boy, now I

476
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 2: feel rilled he gave this.

477
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 3: So he gave the speech at nineteen eighty seven, we're

478
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: talking about other nations are ripping us off. He didn't

479
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 3: quite say tariffs, but that's what he's talking about, negotiating

480
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 3: better trade deals.

481
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 2: Understanding that, look at Trump as a guy who is

482
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 2: often or more often directionally right than his critics give

483
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 2: him credit for. Okay, So it's a very kind of

484
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 2: a very specific phrase I'm using there. And if you understand,

485
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 2: like the direction he wants to go. He wants to

486
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 2: go in the direction of more manufacturing. He wants to

487
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 2: go in the direction of a different trade deficit, a

488
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: more balanced trade deficit with other nations. He wants to

489
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 2: go in the direction of Ian government revenue from this

490
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 2: in part to pay for the tax cuts, so to speak,

491
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 2: pay for that he wants to extend. He wants to

492
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: have more manufacturing in the country. Those are all things

493
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,479
Speaker 2: he wants to do. So all of those guys who

494
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 2: are out there speaking are sort of different avatars of him.

495
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 2: And the reality says Donald Trump hasn't made up his mind.

496
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: And Donald Trump has last guy in the room syndrome

497
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 2: as well. So he frequently falls victim to analysis paralysis

498
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,959
Speaker 2: because he surrounds himself. And this is perhaps to his credit.

499
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 2: It certainly is the credit if you believe in like

500
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: open minded epistemology, like get acquiring information. That is, he

501
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 2: gets everyone's opinion in the room. The thing is, he

502
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 2: doesn't know when to stop and right or it takes

503
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 2: a while for him to kind of arrive at them.

504
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: So that's one. And then there's the last guy in

505
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 2: the room syndrome.

506
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: So He's got all these different advisors who have these

507
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 3: different faces of sort of the tear and what they

508
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 3: could do, and he likes all of them.

509
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 2: So I don't know this for a fact, but generally

510
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 2: I can totally see it where Howard Lutnik is in

511
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 2: there like hey, here's what we gotta do, like, oh yeah, great,

512
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 2: go out there, and he says it, and then that's true,

513
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: and then best's in They're like, hey, here's what we

514
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 2: gotta do, Like great, you go out there and you

515
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: do that. And this is what we're seeing. For those

516
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 2: of us who are accustomed.

517
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 3: To Donald Trump and the sort of you know, are

518
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: able to understand that there's always gonna be a lot

519
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: of noise and you just have to focus on the

520
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 3: directional signal.

521
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 2: It makes a lot more sense. The thing is is

522
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 2: the stock market doesn't work that way, right. He's approaching

523
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 2: this like a political campaign where he's never quite clear.

524
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 2: He likes to have leverage. It's all the sort of

525
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 2: now you see me, now you don't stuff. It's asymmetry

526
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 2: very good at that stock market hates that shit. And

527
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: so here we are.

528
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: What I don't understand is and I send a message

529
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 1: song on you in the White House, and I said, this,

530
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: manufacturing is your main goal, and and it's important, it's

531
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 1: an important effort that we should be undertaking as a country,

532
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 1: but it is your main goal. There are there is

533
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: a lot of different hammers to use to nail that,

534
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: to nail that into the wall well, And I mentioned

535
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: this on this podcast. I wrote about this federal like

536
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: federal contracts. Make sure federal contracts are focused on restoring

537
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 1: like pharmaceuticals or military equipment or whatever. That part hasn't happened,

538
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: Like there's no, they're not. It's not a full uh

539
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: you know, full court press on to faces on every front.

540
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: It seems like it's just tariffs, and that makes it

541
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: confusing and people worrysome and also allowing people who have

542
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: stocks and in companies that are way overvalued to sit

543
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,239
Speaker 1: there and deplete their stocks and to sell them and

544
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 1: to make sure that you know, blame the terrists for

545
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,959
Speaker 1: it instead of some crappy companies that are well up

546
00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: too much money on their hands and whatever. That's that's

547
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: whether their stocks are revalue, I should say to us.

548
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 1: But their stocks are revalued. That is all happening. And

549
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: he's allowing himself to do it, and it just seems

550
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: like it's a mess. And I saw that he wants

551
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: to reduce tariffs in China. Where is he right now?

552
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: Do we have tariffs on any country as there is there?

553
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 2: We have the ten percent across the board tark. Yeah,

554
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 2: that we do have, and and technically we have one

555
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 2: hundred and forty five percent tariff on goods from China,

556
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,239
Speaker 2: which is effectively, as one of the folks in his

557
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 2: economic team has pointed out to me, this is not

558
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 2: tariffs really we're talking about right now, this is a

559
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 2: trade embargo.

560
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: Right.

561
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal had an interesting story with an anecdote

562
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: as their lead, like there was this I didn't realize

563
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 2: that people import that we import eyelashes, And there's like

564
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 2: China sends us eyelashes. Now god knows where they came from.

565
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 2: But you know, someone.

566
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 3: Spoke against President g and is now you know, an

567
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: eyelash donor or whatever.

568
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 2: But there's this truck of eyelashes that's like stuck at

569
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: the Mexico border. Like we are, in effectively for a

570
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 2: lot of these goods, a trade embargo like zero trade.

571
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 2: I had reported the other day on Tuesday that when

572
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 2: Donald Trump met Monday with the heads of Walmart, Home

573
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 2: Depot and Target that what they privately told him was, hey,

574
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 2: we're looking at some empty shelves in as early as

575
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 2: two weeks. So there are these different messages they're getting

576
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 2: to him, and he is sort of reacting to it.

577
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 2: But generally speaking, here I'm sort of scooping myself. One

578
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: of the people I'd spoken to who who's spoken to

579
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: Trump with some regularity, you know, when the stock market

580
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 2: was doing all this stuff, I asked him like, well,

581
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 2: what's what's the present's mindset.

582
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 3: They're like, oh, he's having a great time. I said yeah,

583
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 3: and I said yeah. He just keeps talking about the

584
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 3: deals they're gonna do. He's like Japan's coming in and yeah,

585
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 3: knobs coming in.

586
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: You wouldn't believe what's going to happen with South Korea.

587
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 2: So he's sort of on cloud nine. And the portrayal

588
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: there is a little bit of a disconnect between what

589
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: a lot of people are seeing and certainly you know,

590
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: those people who have money in the stock market, but

591
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 2: his general sense right now is still again, actually this

592
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 2: way and we're in this you know, this is Trump's world.

593
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: We're all living in it right now. Where he's going

594
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: to be kind of fine tuning and real time testing

595
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 2: this stuff. But I think there's a long roundabout answer

596
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: to I think it was a question you posed, which

597
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 2: is this wasn't necessarily very well thought out in the implementation.

598
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 2: And I think this is an old man in a hurry.

599
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 2: He's wanted to do this since nineteen eighty seven at least. Okay,

600
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: he is now president for his second and final term.

601
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: And let's ignore Steve Man and saying he's gonna get

602
00:32:56,440 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 2: their term. Yeah, you know, he's almost eighty years old,

603
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 2: so he wants to do this stuff now.

604
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 3: And let's face it, when I said he was more

605
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: often directionally right than his critics, you have him credit

606
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 3: for he's the only guy who's really come out and

607
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: made free trade an issue and said, hey, a lot

608
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,719
Speaker 3: of the free trade has been bad as hollowed out

609
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 3: or manufacturing sector.

610
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 2: You really didn't hear that in the Republican Party before

611
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, right, you just didn't. And he's the he's

612
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: the guy, right, Yeah, the good point. Yeah, there's a

613
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 2: great political.

614
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: Six But since nineteen ninety six in Buchanan ran, it's

615
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: been though twenty or sixteen to twenty nineteen ninety six

616
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: to twenty sixteen was twenty years.

617
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he is the only guy, the only president

618
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 3: who's like, Okay, fuck it, you know you're talking about you.

619
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 2: Know, the problem of the hammer or everything looks like

620
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: a nail. I mean, he just hit the glass. Yeah,

621
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: So we're there now. Whether it's going to work or not,

622
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 2: it is a big experiment and it is kind of

623
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: a shock to the system. But the reality is he

624
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 2: is the only present who's really given voice to this

625
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 2: problem and the only president who's really tried to solve it.

626
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 2: The question is is is solution Is the cure worse

627
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 2: than the sickness because one of the things his advisors

628
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 2: have said, and sorry, I'm I'll get this out, is

629
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 2: is that they view the American economy as a sick

630
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:23,839
Speaker 2: patient and and it's in and it is in bad

631
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 2: need of medicine. And I in one of my conversations

632
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 2: with one of these people, said, well, yeah, that's true.

633
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: But you know, if you have cancer, they give you

634
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: a chemo very often, and chemotherapy is basically poison. That

635
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: boils down to this, you either are going to kill

636
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 2: the cancer or kill yourself. And so you have to

637
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 2: be careful administering the medicine of the poison in chemotherapy.

638
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: And what I wonder here is is did Trump just

639
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 2: come in and just inject a whole bunch of I

640
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 2: don't know, rat poison or whatever into this and we're

641
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 2: going to see or maybe not?

642
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: Uhh, I mean, I mean, and you have some headlines

643
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: with some companies and and they're reassuring jobs in America.

644
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 1: There's a lots to live on for those headlines. To

645
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 1: Let's ask two questions. One, what is this? What does

646
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 1: this do for Republicans looking at twenty twenty six?

647
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: How you're looking tough? I have not been talking to

648
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 2: Republicans much, but man, in our in our elections are

649
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 2: our elections generally break on the fault line of a

650
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:32,919
Speaker 2: division of desire and terror right right and anger and love.

651
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: There's not a lot of love out there, so let's

652
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: just throw that out. So the gasoline that powers the

653
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 2: engines of our elections is anger, and the left is angry.

654
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 2: They're out there protesting Tesla, you know. So I see

655
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 2: more energy, and I understand, with respect to Saint Paul,

656
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 2: that I see through a glass darkly that I don't

657
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: understand the tire picture on Donald the whole nation, but

658
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 2: the energy looks like it's on on the left when

659
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 2: you look at the fact that the stock market is

660
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 2: not doing so well, the dollar is deflating, is devaluing,

661
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 2: the IMF is cutting growth rate forecasts of the United States.

662
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: Home sales are starting to decline. And Donald Trump, through

663
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: implementing these tariffs in such a way, made this his economy.

664
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 2: It's really gonna be difficult for him to sit around

665
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 2: and blame Biden.

666
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 1: All the Republicans have well blue pass expectations on fundraising numbers,

667
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 1: and there were was good economic indicators before Liberation Day.

668
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: But I mean, we'll see.

669
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 2: I mean the market, the market really wants. The market

670
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 2: is almost like, uh, you know, an abused person who

671
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:45,879
Speaker 2: just wants a little bit of good news.

672
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 3: Like literally, where Donald Trump gives a little bit of

673
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 3: good news, it's like and the market shoots back and

674
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 3: then it comes back down. So uh, I don't know

675
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 3: how long that's gonna last, but there is still some

676
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 3: sort of pent up goodwill in the market. Where if

677
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 3: there is a more I think, if there's a more cohesive, intelligible, predictable,

678
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 3: reliable presentation of where we're going to go and how

679
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 3: we're going to get there that if you were to

680
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 3: ask me this question of how Republicans are feeling, my

681
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 3: answer might change. But right now I think things favor

682
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: Democrats more.

683
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, okay, in terms of prompt My last question,

684
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: in terms of promises to his voters, things he campaigned on,

685
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: and what he's achieved. How would you grade Trump's first

686
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 1: one hundred days, not solely on the success or how

687
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: it's looking, but what he promised and then what he's

688
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: been delivered.

689
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 2: I mean, from all the supporters I know of his

690
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 2: and the people who didn't vote for him, who support him,

691
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 2: they're very happy, like because, as they pointed out, there's

692
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 2: a possibility that a majority or a plurality of his

693
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 2: voters aren't real stock market people. So I don't really

694
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 2: give a shit about a lot of stuff I just

695
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 2: talked about there. They voted for him because of immigration

696
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 2: and attitude and.

697
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 1: Demograph poles is eighteen to twenty one year olds.

698
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: What's that.

699
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,280
Speaker 1: Trump's best demographic in the latest Yale poll is eighteen

700
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 1: to twenty one year olds.

701
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 2: The Harvard David Sure found too. That's the Harvard poll

702
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 2: that John Delavelpie had released showed that he was hamorrhaging

703
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 2: support of younger people.

704
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: That was the Harvard Harris pol I think, so, I

705
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: know it's Harvard.

706
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's Harvard Harris.

707
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, Harvard Harris poles are terrible. And I'm just gonna

708
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 1: tell you like but no, no, no, I take polsters like

709
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 1: ignore Harvard Harris is a joke of bolster, just my

710
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 1: own personal opinion. I never listened to them. But the

711
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: Yale poll, I think is back. They are. They're a

712
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: joke of pual So they do a terrible job each

713
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,959
Speaker 1: and every time. The Yale poll is decent. The Pew

714
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: Pearl poll is very good, it's very thorough, but it's

715
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: I mean, it's terrible for Trump. It was his worst

716
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 1: poll by far. The NBC NBC Post pole that was good,

717
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: The Washington Post pole was decent. So he's had some

718
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 1: decent ones. I think that none of time is settled

719
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 1: to really see what the tariff situation is looking like.

720
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 1: But the problem we have a Trump as far as

721
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 1: as far as like the Democrats have with Trump is

722
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: there's such a little elasticity, like he's never going to

723
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: get to Joe Biden or George W. Bush numbers into

724
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: the twenties because he can't because his base that loves

725
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 1: him is so fervently committed, and the.

726
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: It's kind of like a thirty five percent floor. Basically,

727
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah.

728
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: It's in the mid thirties percent floor and the ceiling

729
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: is fifty two percent, and we just live in that

730
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: fifteen percent range. Wherever we go. He'll never be never

731
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: have Joe Biden positive numbers, He'll never have Joe Biden

732
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 1: negative numbers, will never have Bush positive numbers, and have

733
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,760
Speaker 1: Bush negative numbers. And so we live in this world

734
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: where he's just kind of stuck and everyone has a

735
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: strong opinion of him. But the fact that eighteen to

736
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:46,959
Speaker 1: twenty one year olds and both the David Short data

737
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 1: on the election and then the NBA and then the

738
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 1: Yale pole is pretty wild. And it might be because

739
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: one they don't have stocks and two because it's you know,

740
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 1: I like the attitude.

741
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I think it's a big part of it.

742
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 2: I don't think the the left has really helped its case,

743
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 2: especially among young men, that that horse has been beaten

744
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,880
Speaker 2: and kicked to death. The other issue, I think that

745
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 2: Republicans need to think about, which you saw a play

746
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 2: out in Wisconsin, is that the Trump machine without Trump

747
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 2: is not much of a machine, like he activates certain

748
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 2: voters right.

749
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 1: Well, seniors are increasingly becoming democratic as baby boomer like

750
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,240
Speaker 1: you time when they're like, what happened to seniors? Because

751
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 1: the seniors that live in your head have died, Like

752
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 1: you're not willing to admit that, but you're thinking of

753
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 1: your grandparents who aren't alive anymore, and you're not understanding,

754
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 1: like Archie Bunker is not the senior citizen, he's dead.

755
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 1: Meathead is the senior citizen. Jane Fond is a senior citizen,

756
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 1: Like these are the senior citizens. Rosie o'donald is a

757
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 1: senior A meathead? No, but those are, But those are

758
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 1: senior citizens now. They are not the British generation or

759
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's generation. I mean there are a few of

760
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: those left people up, but not many. They are overwhelmingly

761
00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 1: the counter culture.

762
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, as a Florida based guy, we experienced that quite clearly.

763
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 2: We used to have, especially in South Florida, Southeast Florida,

764
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 2: what we would call the condo commandos. These are these

765
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 2: older FDR voters who were just reliably blue, and it's

766
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 2: what kept Florida bloom at first, and then with the

767
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 2: wave of more Republicans, we kept at purple. Now we're

768
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 2: just importing Republican super voters.

769
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I really where we have to go.

770
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: But on a really quick story, my grandfather grew up

771
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: from from Lowie side of Manhattan and Brooklyn. His whole life,

772
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 1: almost all his friends were Jewish, and those typical New

773
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 1: York Liberal Democratic Jewish like almost like a cartoon of

774
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 1: what a Jewish voter from New York's politics are like.

775
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 1: And I remember the Bloomberg election at five, is my

776
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 1: first election I could get vote in earsthing and I said,

777
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, yeah, I'm voting for Bloomberg, you know,

778
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: as a Republican. And his friends said, oh, I voted

779
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg as a Democrat. And I said, no, you didn't.

780
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: You voted No, he's not a Democrat as a Republican.

781
00:41:56,560 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 1: Literally twenty minutes screaming over the dining room table. This man,

782
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 1: He's like, I never voted for a Republican in my life.

783
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: I wouldn't vote. I voted for him as a Democrat.

784
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 1: I'm like he would not admit to his own self

785
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 1: that it was possibly could vote for a Republican. So yeah,

786
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: I know those voters very well. But most of them

787
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 1: have suns, you know, gone to their great rust. So

788
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 1: that is the eternal rust. So that is what Uh,

789
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,919
Speaker 1: that's what people do. Mark, thank you so much. We're

790
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,720
Speaker 1: gonna end up. Mark, thank you for being on this podcast.

791
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 2: Note yes, yes, sir, that was great.

792
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 1: Where people go to read your stuff.

793
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 2: Axidos dot com. Uh, and I'm on Twitter at Mark A. Caputo.

794
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 2: It's Mark with the C marc Antonio. Now, Mark tell

795
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 2: you Mark Antonio is technically my first name. Okay, one word.

796
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much. Mark. I'll speak to you soon.

797
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 2: Appreciate you. Man.

798
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowsky.

799
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 1: We'll be right back. This is the ask Me Anything

800
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: segment of the podcast, where you guys can send me

801
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 1: any kinds of questions you want and I'm depending on

802
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 1: those questions. Send them my way and let me I'll

803
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 1: tell you if I can find out any information and

804
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: give you the data behind what you're worried about. You

805
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 1: could email me at ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com

806
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: numbers is plural. Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com question

807
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 1: this week, do we think that AOC will be the

808
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee in twenty twenty eight? I don't know, is

809
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: the simple short of it. No one knows. I will

810
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,439
Speaker 1: say two things. One, she's raising a lot of money,

811
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,439
Speaker 1: and she has her face in the media. And that's

812
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: what a lot of people assume is the answer is

813
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: who they've seen the most. Like Gavin Newsom's face is

814
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 1: always in the media, you will assume it means he

815
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 1: must be the nominee. What you need to look at, though,

816
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 1: and what a smart analysis of elections look like, is

817
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 1: where is the primary process going to begin in twenty

818
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 1: twenty eight. If it begins in Iowa and New Hampshire

819
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 1: as it had for one hundred years, they are more

820
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 1: open to more progressive candidates. They help Barack Obama, they

821
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: help Bernie Sanders, those kinds of states. If the election

822
00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:00,040
Speaker 1: begins in South Carolina, that is a much more and

823
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 1: we're a different electorate. It's black primarily, but it's a

824
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: majority of black and the Democratic primary and it is

825
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 1: much more conservative both socially and economically. They are not

826
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 1: down hardcore progressive voters. So if the party primary starts

827
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: in the Deep South and in specially in South Carolina,

828
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 1: it's a primary process looking to try to nominate a moderate,

829
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: and that's what we'll probably see. Anyway, we're three years away,

830
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: so we'll find out. Ben Thank you Social listeners podcast.

831
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio Apple podcast. Wherever

832
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 1: you listen to your podcast, give me a five star

833
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 1: review if you feel generous, Thank you so much. Listen

834
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: on Thursday and see it later this week.