1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: Hey, Marlins fans, this is big Fish Small Pod for Friday, 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 1: March twenty ninth, twenty twenty four, presents it by MPT 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 1: College Consulting, Eli Sussman hosting this one for you. Just 4 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: one game down for the Marlins, still one hundred and 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: sixty one to go. But this wasn't any ordinary game 6 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: opening Day six to five, lost to the Pirates in 7 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: twelve endings. It was a fascinating game, one that I 8 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: felt merited its own deep dive, or at least however 9 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: deep we can dive in ten minutes or less. Here 10 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 1: on these small pod, I wanted to break this down 11 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: into the good, the bad, and the ugly from a 12 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 1: Marlins perspective on Thursday against the Pirates. Starting off with 13 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: the good, and you skip ahead pretty close to the 14 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: end here to get to that good. Right hander Declan 15 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: Cronin pretty anonymous player even entering Marlin spring training, but 16 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: somebody that pretty early on from those first live batting 17 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: practice sessions in Jupiter was raising some eyebrows and catching 18 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: attention made the Marlins opening day roster. He ends up 19 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: entering this game in the tenth inning tai game, and 20 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,559 Speaker 1: he was incredible for the last three innings of this game. 21 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: It was both his sinker and his slider that were 22 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: performing at elite levels. The slider in terms of missing bats. 23 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: The sinker the way that he was commanding it and 24 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: stealing strikes with it was awesome. So he goes three innings. 25 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 1: It only took him thirty two pitches. Incredible efficiency. Is 26 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: one of the longest outings of Cronin's career at any 27 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: level of his pro career, not just the majors, but 28 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: any level for a guy that has been a reliever, 29 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 1: and he is still a reliever, but one that showed 30 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: a considerable amount of versatility and upside with his performance 31 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: here with how an nasty his stuff looked. So he 32 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: takes the loss, even though you could argue who was 33 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: the best picture that the Marlins used in the entire game, 34 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: such as the the in precision of a pitching decision 35 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: and how that is sent out, especially in this era 36 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: of automatic runner on second base and extra innings. Another 37 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: thing good offensively for the Marlins. They did put up 38 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: five runs in just really the first half of this game, 39 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: getting contributions up and down the lineup, including some brand 40 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 1: new players like Tim Anderson coming through with an RBI 41 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: double in this game. Jake Berger three runs betted in 42 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: saying that he had matching his single game high as 43 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: a Marlin in twenty twenty three. As a whole, the 44 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 1: team only struck out seven times in twelve innings. Seven 45 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 1: strikeouts for a regulation game is good by Major League standards, 46 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: but to do it with those additional three innings latched on. 47 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: That was the strength of this team last year, one 48 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: of the few positives about their offense, and there's a 49 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: chance to be once again this year. So that was 50 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: an important, bright, encouraging thing and made it all the 51 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 1: more surprising that they lost the game, considered how dominant 52 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: at times their pitching was, and yet how good they 53 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: were putting balls and play themselves, and yet scoring one 54 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: fewer run than the Pirates did. Now getting to the bad, 55 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: we could start with six oh Sanchez, who as a 56 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,639 Speaker 1: hole I did not think was like he wasn't ugly 57 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: in his whole outing. But when you put all the 58 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: circumstances together, including Skip Schumacher's role in this as well, 59 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: I'm kind of bundling together skips handling of the bullpen 60 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: with the way that the actual performance of that bullpen 61 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: was so six Os Sanchez, We've been following this story 62 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: very closely throughout spring. Really is inspiring that he's made 63 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: it back to the majors after three and a half 64 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: years in the wilderness coming back from his shoulder issues. 65 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: In this ending, he hits ninety eight miles per hour. 66 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: He gets three pretty routine ground balls, but before that, 67 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: on the second pitch he threw to O'Neil Cruz, he 68 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: gives up what was at the time a game tying 69 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: home run in the eighth ending that made it a 70 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: five to five game. It was a relatively well placed pitch. 71 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: But one of the concerns I've had about six dough 72 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: coming back is his fastball. Even when the velocity is 73 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: above average, the spin rate on that pitch is not 74 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: so as a whole. His four seamer average barely two 75 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 1: thousand revolutions per minute during this outing. That is bottom 76 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: tenth percentile of all major league fastballs, at least going 77 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 1: off with twenty twenty three's numbers, So I'll be interested 78 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: in running that a little more closely. It just means 79 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: that his fastball is kind of more hittable than the 80 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: velocity would suggest, especially when he keeps it elevated. You 81 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: have a high spin fastball and you elevate it, then 82 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: you have a chance at getting it above the barrel 83 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: of somebody's bats. But with his particular type of pitch, 84 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 1: this was somewhat of a misslocation that I think he 85 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: wanted it a lot lower than it ended up being. 86 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: Then there's skips involvement in this with six dough where 87 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: even though he had earned a spot on this roster 88 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: heading into the year, considering the alternatives, it was not 89 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: it should not have been the plan to put him 90 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 1: into this kind of situation where he is being relied 91 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: upon in a high leverage situation, extremely high leveraged eighth 92 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: ending just a one run lead and facing a guy 93 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: that has great power potential in O'Neil cruz So, who 94 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: was put in a very tough spot right there. And 95 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: you'd like to think that this could be managed a 96 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: little bit differently if Lozardo had the green light to 97 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: pitch one more ending, then perhaps it would be easier to 98 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 1: bridge the gap between him and Tanner Scott at the 99 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 1: end of the game and not have to put six 100 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:47,719 Speaker 1: to zero in that spot. Fresh off this comeback and 101 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: still at a point where he's still getting his footing 102 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 1: as a reliever. Also in the bad category, I would 103 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: point to some lousy throws from the left side of 104 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: the infield. It's the first base, including both Tim Anderson 105 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: and Jake Berger at least three throws overall that really 106 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: shouldn't have but landed in the dirt and just created 107 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 1: unnecessarily difficult pick opportunities for Josh Bell at first base, 108 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 1: even when Anderson and Berger in these cases they either 109 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: had the chance to set their feet or they're momentum 110 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: going towards first base. I have expressed my concerns about 111 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: the quality of the infield defense in particular with this team, 112 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: and this first game really did nothing to alleviate those concerns. 113 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: I think that is going to be a problem over 114 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 1: the course of the season. Now getting to the ugly 115 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 1: the mistakes that really doomed the Marlins in this one, 116 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: it was how the offense totally disappeared the entire second 117 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 1: half of the game six and a third innings against 118 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: Pirates relievers. They had one hit, one hit in six 119 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: and a third against six different relievers and here including 120 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:06,239 Speaker 1: some no names with all due respect, and what was weird. 121 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, they were putting so many balls 122 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: in play, so it wasn't that they were being overpowered 123 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: by guys. It's just that everything was on the ground. 124 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: It seems like, in particular, a lot of pulled ground 125 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: balls just where the approach that the hitters had was 126 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: just not appropriate for these situations, especially when you're coming 127 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: up to bat with runners on base. And in all 128 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: those they took a lead into the later endings, they 129 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 1: never trailed until the twelfth inning until they fell behind 130 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: for good at the very end. These were situations where 131 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: simply using the whole field would be really valuable, where 132 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: the difference between ground ball double play and a line 133 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: drive elsewhere would have been the entire difference between winning 134 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: and losing. And I thought these hitters were settling for 135 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: undesirable pitches and they were paying the price for it 136 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: with a lot weak, unproductive contact. Also in the Ugly 137 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: you need to call out specifically Luis Arris going OH 138 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: for six for the first time ever in his entire 139 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: major league career, Arise had never been oho for six 140 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: in a single game. He'd never gotten out that many 141 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: times without recording a hit, so this was an anomaly 142 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: for him. Doesn't have any meaning beyond the single game. 143 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that it is something still to call 144 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:33,719 Speaker 1: out though that if they had gotten just anything from 145 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 1: him in those six at bats, that's that also could 146 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: have been the difference between pushing across a run, an 147 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: insurance run, or a winning run in those later innings 148 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: and not doing so. The fact that they got absolutely 149 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: nothing from a rise at the plate. With him being, 150 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: as you know, the defending NL batting champ in previously 151 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: the AL batting champ, He's somebody that even on his 152 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: bad days, you expect him to get on at least 153 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: one time, and he did not do that on opening Day. 154 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:03,719 Speaker 1: So I think that is going to sum it up 155 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: a ninety two percent win probability in the middle of 156 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: the sixth ending and the Marlins end up losing it. 157 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 1: For a team that dominated in one run games in 158 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, they end up ironically losing their very 159 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: first game in one run fashion here in twenty twenty four. So, 160 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: looking ahead to game two of the season on Friday, 161 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 1: AJ Puck, if you've been following my coverage close so 162 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: you know, I am really encouraged by what Puck showed 163 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: in spring training. He has a fatigued bullpen behind him. 164 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: I don't know if there's any circumstance where he really 165 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: pitches deep into the game. But more importantly, you're going 166 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: to be looking for what is effectiveness is whether he 167 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 1: can really translate as a reliever to a starter and 168 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: whether his expanded pitch mix is able to get him 169 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: two times and three times through an opposing lineup with 170 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: some success. The Pirates will be using Martin Perez, the 171 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,959 Speaker 1: veteran lefty, as their starter, so you're going to see 172 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 1: a slightly different Marlins lineup in this one should see 173 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: the first marl and start for Christian Beth in Courts, 174 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,199 Speaker 1: and perhaps a couple other changes in that land from 175 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 1: what we saw on opening Day or at this point 176 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: the season where you just cannot overreact to individual games. 177 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: I think every new bit of information we get is 178 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 1: really interesting and worth diving into. But despite the loss 179 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: on Thursday, it was really enjoyable, at least for me, 180 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: just have meaningful baseball back, and I always prefer those 181 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 1: really close games over blowouts. I know some people maybe 182 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: feel a little bit differently about that. So Game two 183 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: coming right up the small pod. We're turning again on 184 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: Monday and every weekday throughout this twenty twenty four regular season, 185 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: Just like all our other Fish on First podcast content 186 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: presented by MPT College Consulting. Check them out MPT Collegeconsulting 187 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: dot com. I've been Eli Sussman. Enjoy your weekends and 188 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,359 Speaker 1: go fish