1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information. 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? 3 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: A five dollars? This is a rat A lesson? How 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 1: many tackleship? 5 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 3: One? 6 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 4: Man? Pray? You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life. 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: Bearable, humans need fantasy to be human? 8 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: My goodness, misspeak, I suppose the best, relentless, refusing to 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 2: give up. 10 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 4: All right, hit that horn, babe, Let's and Welcome to 11 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 4: the Fantasy Flex Props Podcast for week seven, presented by 12 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 4: Prize Picks. 13 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, joined as always by my dude, 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 2: Sean Kerner. 15 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: Sean, what's going on? Man? 16 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:51,319 Speaker 5: What's up? What's up? 17 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 3: I think I went three and two on this pod 18 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 3: last week. I apologize for the ceedee lamb under seventy 19 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 3: seventy five and a half yards he more than double 20 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 3: bet so yeah. Looking to get back on track with 21 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 3: a four to one or five and zero performance this week? 22 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 5: How about you? Yeah? 23 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: Man? 24 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 2: I feel like I haven't been doing well on this pod, 25 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 2: probably because I've been taking too many overs, which I 26 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 2: never do, especially if you know, if you watch convince me, 27 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 2: I almost always wonder And the two times I went over, 28 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 2: it was with Ryan Tannehill, which burned me and I 29 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 2: didn't learn my West and so I'm going five unders 30 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 2: on this pod. I'll find it right now, so hopefully 31 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: we get back on track. And of course for you 32 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,639 Speaker 2: guys that don't know, we'll do our top quarterback props 33 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: to running back two receiver props. But we'll start off 34 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 2: by previewing the Sunday night football showdown Slate. It's the 35 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: Indianapolis coach going to San Francisco to face the forty 36 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 2: nine ers, who are coming off of BUYE so they 37 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 2: have a little bit of extra prep. That's usually a 38 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 2: good thing for a guy like Kyle Shanahan. So, Sean, 39 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 2: what do you think in as far as the captain spot. 40 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: I mean, if we're talking captain for the forty nine ers, 41 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,239 Speaker 3: it's pretty simple. It's Deebo Samuel. You know that they're 42 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 3: without George Kittle, still, Brandon Ayuka is struggling. I do 43 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 3: think Elijah Moore is a Elijah Mitchell is a sneaky 44 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 3: play here, but you know, the Colts do have the 45 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 3: top ranked run defense in DVA, so maybe he's not 46 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 3: a captain. So I think it's it's debo for me 47 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 3: if I'm going the Niners and then on the Colt side, 48 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 3: I think it's Jonathan Taylor all the way. We still 49 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 3: don't really know how the wide receiver room's going to 50 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 3: look heading into this game. But you know, Jonathan Taylor 51 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 3: is playing at a high level. Last week he saw 52 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 3: I believe it's like sixty two percent routes run rate 53 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 3: versus just twenty nine percent for Niim Hinde. So Jonathan 54 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 3: Taylor is looking like a workhorse back right now. So 55 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 3: I think if I pick a captain for the Colts, 56 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 3: it's probably gonna be Jonathan Taylor. 57 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Diebo. 58 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 2: Debo is going to be my highest owned captain in 59 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 2: Indianapolis is one of those teams that just likes to 60 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: sit back and zone coverage. 61 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: They don't blitz much. 62 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 2: Their lasting pressure rate and their fourth they have played 63 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 2: the fourth most zone Deebo Samuel has three hundred and 64 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 2: eighty three yards versus zone coverage. That's second most in 65 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 2: the NFL. So you give Jimmy Garoppolo some time to 66 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 2: drop back, no real pressure on him, He's gonna find 67 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 2: Deebo in this one. 68 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: So I like Debo. I like him a lot more 69 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: than the Coats like Taylor. 70 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 2: I think Pittman's an option as well, just because I 71 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 2: think the Coats are actually going to struggle a bit 72 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 2: in this game. 73 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: You have the Niners coming off a buye. You know, that's. 74 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 2: Usually a good thing, especially when you have a West 75 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 2: Coast team in primetime hosting a non West Coast team. 76 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 2: The West Coast team, the home team is fifty two 77 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: to twenty nine to five against the spread. That's sixty 78 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 2: four percent since two thousand and three, so I think 79 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: this is a great spot for the forty nine ers. 80 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: And that's not even count coming off to buy. 81 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 2: So that's the only thing that worries me a little 82 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 2: bit about Taylor, Whereas like I might go some Pittman 83 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 2: as well if I'm going with a cold player, But 84 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: I think it's got to be Deebo here because you 85 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 2: mentioned it. The Cults are a run funnel, so usually 86 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 2: when we expect good things from a favorite, we're looking 87 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 2: at their running back, and. 88 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: Well, I think Mitchell will get the bulk of the work. 89 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: Indianapolis is first and run DVOA on defense, twenty ninth 90 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 2: against the pass, so I actually think San Francisco throws 91 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 2: in this game for a good portion of it. Even 92 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 2: if it's just short passes and those especially you know 93 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 2: on full PPR that only helps you get those short passes. 94 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 2: In the receptions pile up, you still go down the 95 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 2: field against it a bad defense. So like and on 96 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 2: top of that, we didn't even mention Julian Blackman, the 97 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 2: Colt Safet free Safety Tour's achilles. 98 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: I believe it was in practice. 99 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, he's out, which is that's a brutal loss. 100 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 1: So you know, if they if they. 101 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 2: Thought maybe they were gonna blitz a little more because 102 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 2: teams do like to blitz garoppolo. Uh, that kind of 103 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,039 Speaker 2: compromises it a little bit because you're gonna be really 104 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 2: short in the secondary. 105 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: So yeah, like Diebo, that's that's the guy for me. 106 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: What about for cheat codes? 107 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, so cheat codes, I mean, we have a lot 108 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 3: to choose from in this slate. I think, you know, 109 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 3: Paris Campbell's out. I'm guessing to you hy Hilton plays. 110 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 3: So I think Zach Pascal, you know, he was my 111 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 3: cheek code. I think was in week two. I called 112 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 3: him frustratingly productive. Everybody wants to write him off and 113 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 3: he I think he led the Colts and receiving yards 114 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 3: two years ago and last year he was like second 115 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 3: or foot those I forgot which order it was. But 116 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 3: he's always productive because there's always someone out it seems, 117 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 3: and he steps up. So I like him as a 118 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 3: you know, a red zone threat at least in this game. 119 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 3: So if if Hilton's active, you know, I think people 120 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 3: will be all over Pittman and Hilton, but winsprising up. 121 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 3: Pascal has a good game, you know. I think the 122 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 3: tight ends are interesting here. I think Mali Cox will 123 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 3: probably be high owned. Our boy kyline Grantson probably not 124 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 3: worth a fire here. His routs run the past couple 125 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 3: of games have been around fifteen percent. That's probably not 126 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 3: enough to throw money away on Kyle Grants at Kylon 127 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 3: Grantson lineup. So I think Russ Dwelly might be interesting 128 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 3: because you know it's you know, they they were on 129 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 3: a bye week last week. You know, people aren't really 130 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,359 Speaker 3: in tune with the forty nine ers. But you know, 131 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,359 Speaker 3: he flopped in his first start for Kittle back in 132 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 3: Week five, but he ran a healthy seventy four percent 133 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 3: routes run rate. He's stepped up in the past for Kittle, 134 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 3: so I think you could step up here. Of three 135 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 3: or four catches. I think having Jimmy g under center 136 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 3: certainly helped. So I think I'm gonna have quite a 137 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 3: few Dwelly shares, So I think i'd consider him probably 138 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 3: my cheek out here. 139 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was looking at Dwelly because I think this 140 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 2: coach defense, you know, all that zone just plays well 141 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 2: to when you're not looking for your top receiver and Deebo, 142 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 2: I think there is going to be just a lot 143 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 2: of underneath stuff. 144 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: I think Jimmy's going to be able to move it 145 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: down the field. So I like Dwelly. He ran seventy 146 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: four percent of the routes. But a guy that. 147 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 2: May be even more lower owned because he's not really 148 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 2: starting for anyone per se. But Mohammed Sanu the third 149 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 2: receiver for San Francisco. He runs seventy five percent of 150 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 2: his routes in the slot. He's essentially their slot guy, 151 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 2: and because Kittle's not here, you could see more three 152 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 2: receiver sets than you may usually see from San Francisco. 153 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 2: Indianapolis slot corner Kenny Moore, He's he has a good reputation, 154 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 2: He's been really bad this year. 155 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: He's about thirty. 156 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 2: One catches, second most in the NFL among cornerbacks and 157 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 2: three hundred and ten yards, which is tied for tenth most, 158 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 2: and that's unheard of for a slot corner to give 159 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 2: up like the tenth most yards. I mean, that's usually 160 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 2: you're giving up a lot of catches, but they're short. 161 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 2: So he's been struggling all around. I think Sinnew is 162 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 2: a guy that could take advantage of that. And you 163 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: mentioned Brandon and I you been kind of struggling. I 164 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 2: do expect them to maybe draw up a couple of 165 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 2: things for him behind the line of scrimmage coming out 166 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 2: of the by. But SiNW is a guy that could 167 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 2: win in this matchup, and I think people it's just 168 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: such an unsexy play that I think people will be 169 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 2: off of. 170 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 1: So likes s New there. 171 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 2: And one more guy I want to mention is Kyle 172 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 2: Yustchek because he's run a round on sixty five percent 173 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 2: of the drop backs over the last three games. Even 174 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 2: with Mitchell back U check, they're still using Mitchell like 175 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 2: the second tailback and not Trey Surbon, so like Tray Servon. Man, 176 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 2: it's been it's been a tough year for him. Yeah, 177 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: I mean, how the. 178 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: Mighty how the mighty preseason hype machines have fallen. 179 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 3: You could still be a league winner weeks fourteen through 180 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 3: six seventeen, though you just never know what the forty 181 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 3: nine ers. 182 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, well every running back be hurt, Like it's 183 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 2: once U gets hurt, then uh then maybe we'll see. 184 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: But uh, you know U Check was also a guy. 185 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 2: If you remember, there were a couple of games over 186 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 2: the last couple of years when Kittle had missed, and 187 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: they use use Check some in that role as well, 188 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 2: in that tight end kind of blocking, you know, go 189 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 2: out as a receiver kind of role. So yeah, I 190 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 2: think it's about these kind of debo for the captain, 191 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 2: but then these underneath receivers who could just eat up 192 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 2: catches against zone coverage for San Francisco. So uh yeah, 193 00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 2: that is our showdown breakdown. Let's get into our props 194 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 2: for Week seven. Sean starts off with a quarterback prop. 195 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 3: So I'm going with it over here, and I'm going 196 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 3: over two hundred and five and a half passing yards 197 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 3: for justin fields against the Buccaneers. I mean, we talked 198 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 3: about this at length on our Tuesday Wednesday pod. So 199 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 3: I also like Zach Wilson under two hundred and twenty 200 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 3: eight passing yards. I almost feel like these props can 201 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 3: be flipped and then I'd be off them. So yeah, 202 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 3: like when it comes to Justin Fields, we're predicting his 203 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 3: best career game as a passer here so far. You 204 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 3: know his high as two hundred and nine passing yards. 205 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:39,599 Speaker 3: I think just give him the matchup. You know, the 206 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:45,079 Speaker 3: Buccaneers are a pass funnel defense a because you know 207 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 3: their run defense is so stout that teams throw on 208 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 3: them and then be just you know, usually teams facing 209 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 3: them having negative game script, they're usually trailing by double 210 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 3: digits and they have to throw. So I think that's 211 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 3: why Fields will go over this prop. And he has 212 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 3: two very talented wide receivers and Alan Robinson Darnel Mooney, 213 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:03,839 Speaker 3: so I think he gets it going here. And this 214 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 3: is probably too low. We were talking about this prop 215 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 3: on Tuesday and I had it around to ten to fifteen, 216 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 3: but right now I have a closer to two twenty five. 217 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 3: So I'm going with you over here, and I would 218 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 3: take this probably up to two fifteen. 219 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I have Fields going over this one as well. 220 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 2: And another thing to keep an eye out for is 221 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 2: also is rushing because I think he may also put 222 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 2: in a career day on the ground. He had six 223 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 2: carries last week, the highest among in his starts. And 224 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,959 Speaker 2: remember in that Week two game where he came in 225 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 2: for Dalton, he had ten carries. So it's not as 226 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 2: if he can't like he's not gonna have a high 227 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 2: number of carries. 228 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,680 Speaker 1: They just really haven't been doing that in the in 229 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: his first few starts. 230 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 2: But you can't run on you can't run on tampas, 231 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 2: so you're gonna have to throw and you're gonna have 232 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 2: to run the quarterback. So yeah, I think Justin Fiaz 233 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 2: has a pretty good day. High upside streamer quarterback, you know, 234 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 2: low floor but high ceiling. 235 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 3: I'll met that'll I have a little PHSD takeing over 236 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 3: two hundred and five and a half. I believe that 237 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 3: was the line and his debut, and we were both 238 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 3: over that in the sixty eight passing yards. So hopefully 239 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 3: he can bounce back here. But that's why he's a 240 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 3: little bit hesitant earlier in the week, but I have 241 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 3: since come around. 242 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is why I got to not 243 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 2: take overs, so I just avoid PATSC. 244 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: That's PTSD not fun all right. 245 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 2: For my quarterback prop, I'm going Mac Jones under two 246 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 2: hundred and forty six and a half passing yards. And 247 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 2: the reason I love this is because of the spot 248 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,599 Speaker 2: against the Jets. Now you would think, okay, not a 249 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 2: great defense. Why would you go under? Well, because if 250 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 2: you look at how Belichick and the coaching staff McDaniels 251 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 2: have used Mac Jones and the two wins, he's averaging 252 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 2: just thirty attempts for two hundred and nine passing yards. 253 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 2: In the four losses thirty eight attempts for two hundred 254 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 2: and sixty four yards. So this is all about the 255 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 2: game script. Against the Jets they won twenty five to 256 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 2: six Week two. I think it'll be a little bit 257 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 2: closer second divisional matchup, but Jones in that game, it's 258 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 2: worth noting, had a season low one hundred and eighty 259 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 2: six yards passing in that game. This is still a 260 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 2: Robert solid defense that's actually overachieving. They're coming out of 261 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 2: a buy so they will have, you know, some extra 262 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: time to prep here for Jones. So I really like 263 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: this under because I made the mistake last week of 264 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 2: taking the over with Tara Heinike, and I did like 265 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 2: the over. I had it projected over. The Chiefs, you know, 266 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 2: made some changes on defense that you know, they hadn't 267 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 2: been doing, which I think screwed up their defense. They 268 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 2: put in Thornhill and played him every snap, They changed 269 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: their their their nickel linebacker, oute put Willie Gay and more. 270 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: So that ended up going under. 271 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 2: But one of the things is, you know a lot 272 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 2: of times we end up chasing those quarterbacks overs in 273 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 2: like the the game script games. But I think it's 274 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 2: even more profitable to kind of look for the unders 275 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 2: with a favorite, you know, with a team that's probably 276 00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 2: not going to pass as much as they use as 277 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,839 Speaker 2: they usually have. So that's why I love Mac Jones 278 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 2: here again. Just two hundred and nine passing yards and 279 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 2: wins this year. 280 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, Yeah, I like that. 281 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 3: And typically in the spot you'd also be targeting the 282 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 3: Damien Harris over, but I understand if you're shying away. 283 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 5: From overs, why you would go this route. 284 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:17,719 Speaker 3: But yeah, Mac Jones hasn't gone over this number, and 285 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 3: they're two wins this year, so certainly I think just 286 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 3: based on the game script alone, I would project this 287 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 3: closer to to two thirty, yeah, than somewhere in the 288 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 3: mid two forties. 289 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have this, Yeah, I have this about right 290 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 2: around two thirty yes, so yeah, two thirty one. So yeah, 291 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 2: this is a good about fifteen yards, about two attempts 292 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 2: of value here at two hundred and forty six and 293 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: a half under. 294 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: All right, where you going for your first running back prop? 295 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 5: All right? 296 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna join you on this undertrain, and I'm 297 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 3: going with under forty one and a half for saving 298 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 3: yards for Corderyl Patterson of all people. 299 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't go under with Cordaro. 300 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 5: I think it's time. 301 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,559 Speaker 3: I think it's time to sell high a little bit 302 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 3: on cepat here. You know, we get cal Ridley back 303 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 3: Russell Gage from what I understand, and is returning. Kyle 304 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,199 Speaker 3: Pitts is ascending like we all thought he would at 305 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 3: some point, and defenses will have to start game planning 306 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 3: for Patterson. So while I still like him in fantasy, 307 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 3: I think he's like my RB ten or something crazy 308 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 3: right now. Still I'm projecting as closer to forty six 309 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 3: and a half. I think he's due for some regressions 310 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 3: that would be over what thirty six and a half? 311 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: Oh? He said four? You know you want to go over. 312 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 3: My mean projection is about forty, but when you you know, 313 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 3: factor in the distribution of yardages and things like that, 314 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 3: it's closer to thirty six and a half. Yeah, that 315 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 3: was not as good of a Fredian slip as Nick 316 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 3: Chump for Dearness Johnson, But same thing. 317 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 2: Oh man, Okay, I mean, hey, I don't think I'm there. 318 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 2: I don't think I'm I don't think I'm going under 319 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 2: on any Cardo Patterson props. I think his role is 320 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 2: only going to grow. I mean, it's just you look 321 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 2: at what we look at his usage. Now last week 322 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 2: he did play. I think he ran more like, he 323 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 2: ran a season high in routes at fifty two percent. 324 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: I do think that was because you know, Ridley was 325 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: out and Gauge is out. 326 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: But I still, I mean, this guy's just been so 327 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: ridiculous that I still I just it's I'm just like 328 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 2: off any unders with him. 329 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 3: This is yeah, I believe me, I understand for you though, 330 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 3: I understand, and he's he's averaging a target on thirty 331 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 3: seven percent on his rouse rund, which is absolutely insane, 332 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 3: and I'm projecting him close to like thirty one thirty two, 333 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 3: which is still insane. So I just think with Ridley 334 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 3: engaged coming back, it's possible, but you know, he catches 335 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 3: four passes here instead of like six or seven. So 336 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 3: I'm just kind of betting on a little bit of 337 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 3: regression here, that's all. That's You don't have to join 338 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 3: me on this. You can root for me, but I 339 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 3: gotta take a chance here. 340 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: I will give you a reason for optimism here. 341 00:15:56,400 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 2: So Miami is one of the three teams that plays 342 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 2: man coverage more than half the time, along with New 343 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 2: England and Denver. 344 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: Cordero. 345 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 2: Patterson on the year has just three catches for eighteen 346 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 2: yards against man coverage nineteen catches for two forty four 347 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 2: against zone. 348 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: So if you catch. 349 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 2: Him in the right if you catch Miami in the 350 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 2: right coverages here. 351 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: He could go well under this number. 352 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 2: So that's that's what we think about on the on 353 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 2: the DFS Silaly as well. 354 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, So probably need Howard and Jones to be active 355 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 3: because I think they ran a lot more zone last 356 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 3: week with both you know, stud cornerbacks out, So that's 357 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 3: probably going to dictate if they were revert back to 358 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 3: their heavy man scheme or stick with the zone. 359 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 5: So I'll keep an eye on that. 360 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, And interestingly enough Howard and Jones haven't really been 361 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 2: that good this year, so I would expect a big 362 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 2: game for Ridley, in a big game for Pitt who 363 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 2: if they play a man coverage, he's going to eat. 364 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: So I actually I don't disagree with you here. 365 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 2: It's just Cordill Pattersons just like that, been that outlier 366 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: this far as I'm just chewing on him, but I'll 367 00:16:58,840 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 2: roof for. 368 00:16:59,200 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 5: You totally fair. 369 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 2: I am going with an under that has been pretty 370 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 2: profitable this season for my first running back entry, and 371 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 2: that is DeAndre Swift under forty three and a half 372 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,399 Speaker 2: rushing yards. He's been under this in four out of 373 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 2: his six games for the Lions under Dan Campbell this year. 374 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 2: His median is thirty eight. That's about where I put 375 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,400 Speaker 2: him for this week. The Rams are allowing just eighty 376 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 2: three yards per game two opposing backs, and Swift has actually, 377 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 2: you know, even though he's gone under and four out 378 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 2: of six, Squip has seen an uptick in rushing usage 379 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: the past few games because Jamal Williams has been a 380 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 2: little bit banged up. I think as he gets healthier, 381 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 2: they're going to start to use Williams more in the 382 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 2: run game. I believe they talked about that a little 383 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 2: you know, the coach has kind of talked about getting 384 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 2: him a little bit more involved. He's been one of 385 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 2: their best players, and he's kind of been quiet. I mean, 386 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 2: Swift can do. He's going to play a big role 387 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 2: in the pass game. And with the Rams sixteen point 388 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 2: favorites now two possession favorites, it very well may be 389 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 2: a lot of passing game script. So even if Swift 390 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 2: gets his normal or gets the rushing workload that he's 391 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 2: been getting these past few weeks, there's still a good 392 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 2: chance that he can go under because he's been I 393 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 2: don't know if you saw the next Gen stats where 394 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 2: they kind of look at how many steps running backs take, 395 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 2: oh yeah, versus how many yards they get. Swift has 396 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 2: been one of the least efficient backs in the league 397 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 2: this year running the football. 398 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 5: Yeah exactly. 399 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,959 Speaker 2: Swift is averaging just three point three yards to carry, 400 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 2: just thirty five point seven yards per game. So it's 401 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 2: been it's been tough. It's been tough for him to 402 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 2: get going here in this run game. So under forty 403 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 2: three and a half for. 404 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 5: Swift, yeah, I like this. 405 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,719 Speaker 3: I mean, he's a top ten back this week in fantasy, 406 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 3: but that's due to his usage in the passing game, 407 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 3: and you know he gets goalline carries. So I do 408 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 3: love him for fantasy, but can certainly understand continuing that 409 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 3: the Swift fade been up to this year and he's 410 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,400 Speaker 3: only gotten over this number twice this year, and those 411 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 3: were two games where the Lions lost less than a 412 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 3: field goal. I don't think that's going to be the 413 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 3: case this week against the Rams. So yeah, love love 414 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 3: the under just based on the game script alone. And 415 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 3: like you said, Swift hasn't been that great of a runner, 416 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,479 Speaker 3: but certainly he's probably gonna have a good game as 417 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 3: a receiver, so that that doesn't matter for this market. 418 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 3: So I'm under on forty three and a half here 419 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 3: as well. 420 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 2: Yeah you could, Yeah, that could be a correlation, you know, 421 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 2: if you want to play those two because the Rams 422 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 2: are gonna keep us to safeties back. So I mean, 423 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 2: if you enter, I know you have to do more 424 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:30,959 Speaker 2: than one team in these entries, but if you do, 425 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 2: like you know, both Swift props and then another you 426 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 2: know some of the other ones we mentioned, that's a 427 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 2: good correlation with his over receiving, Yeah, because that's where 428 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 2: he's gonna I think that's where he's gonna eat. 429 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 1: All right, we're going for your second running back prop. 430 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 3: I'm going with Joe Mixon over sixty three and a 431 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 3: half rushing yards against the Ravens. He's gone over this 432 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 3: number all but one game this year, and that was 433 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,959 Speaker 3: the game where he was extremely extremely limited with his 434 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 3: ankle injury. So this week it looks like samaj p 435 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 3: Ren's gonna return. But Chris Evans Uh, he's shaping up 436 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 3: as a game time decision. So I think if Peron plays, 437 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 3: he'll be eating into Mixing's receiving work. If anything, I 438 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 3: think in a game like this, the Bengals are going 439 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 3: to lean on Mixing. They've been a really run heavy 440 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 3: team all season when Mixing has been healthy. So I 441 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 3: think he's a lock for you know, eighteen to twenty 442 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 3: carries here. So again, I don't know if he's going 443 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 3: to be extremely efficient against the Ravens. This is more 444 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 3: of a volume play, so I think he has a 445 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 3: pretty high flour So I projecting him for eighteen to 446 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 3: twenty carries here for seventy yards. 447 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 5: So I think we have a bit of a wigger room. 448 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 3: And like I said, there's a high four here, so 449 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 3: I would take this up to probably sixty six and 450 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 3: a half. 451 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I have him. I have him in the mid seventies. Actually, 452 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 1: oh nice. 453 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 2: I always talk about this, like when Joe Mixon is healthy, 454 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,959 Speaker 2: no one else gets carries, right, Yeah, been like this 455 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 2: since the start of last year. So I tend to 456 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 2: project mixing for He's one of the few backs that 457 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 2: I project for over eighty percent of the backfield carriers. 458 00:20:58,119 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 1: I think I have him an eighty eighty four percent. 459 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, when he's healthy this week. Yeah, and he's had 460 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 5: a week five week five. 461 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 3: We had to give him, like you know, manually give 462 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,360 Speaker 3: him like thirteen or fourteen. 463 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 5: But yeah, now he's he seems to be fully healthy 464 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 5: now at least. 465 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, So this is you know, again, I'm trying to 466 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 2: kind of lay off the overs, but I do have 467 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 2: this projected. 468 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 1: Well over for Joe Mixon here all right. 469 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 2: For my second running back prop, I am going with 470 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,199 Speaker 2: Miles Sanders under sixty five and a half rushing yards. 471 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,479 Speaker 1: Now. I know that they want to get him more involved. 472 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 2: I know they had the long ten day rest to 473 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 2: kind of figure, you know, consider the fact that they 474 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 2: probably need to run the ball more. But this number 475 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 2: is like an over adjustment for all these things because 476 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 2: Standers has been under sixty five and a half and 477 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 2: five out of six games his median is just fifty. 478 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 2: So anytime you have a prop that's fifteen and a 479 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 2: half yards over than five games that you know, I'm 480 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,679 Speaker 2: going to take the under. All day. Vegas Raiders are 481 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 2: actually tense and defense way back. Remember they play a 482 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 2: lot of single high stage that high to get an 483 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,199 Speaker 2: eighty player at box, I'm just kind of betting that 484 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 2: they don't have that player get a MOX to his 485 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 2: season high, and even if he does, he could still come. 486 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 2: This is short of the total just by not having 487 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 2: a super efficient game against the top ten run defense. 488 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 2: So under sixty five and a half, I have this 489 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 2: at fifty. I have it right on his medium for 490 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 2: the season. 491 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, I'm at fifty four, so I'm quite 492 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 3: a bit below the market as well. 493 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 5: Yeah. 494 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 3: Like so, Kenneth Gainwell has been sort of phase out 495 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 3: in the past couple of games. 496 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:34,880 Speaker 5: I don't know if we can look into that too much. 497 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 3: So I think Kenneth Gainwell his role might grow a 498 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,199 Speaker 3: little bit more in this game as well. If they 499 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 3: want to run more. So yeah, I think you know, 500 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 3: I'm projecting Sanders for twelve carries. But with Sanders you 501 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 3: always have to worry about, you know, the eighty yard 502 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 3: home run threat run here. But certainly I think his 503 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 3: median is much lower than his average, So he's He's 504 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 3: the type of player I do like to attack the 505 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 3: under on his market. And he you know, he did 506 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 3: look good against the Buccaneers stout run defense, but maybe 507 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,880 Speaker 3: the Buccaneers just weren't expecting them to run the ball, 508 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 3: you know, ten or twelve times there. So yeah, I 509 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 3: like the under here as well. I'm closer to the 510 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 3: median at fifty as well. 511 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, and he was that was all on one drive 512 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 2: really yeah, wait in the game at the very end, 513 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 2: right right, and he still would have came nine and 514 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 2: a half short. So yeah, under sixty five and a 515 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 2: half for Sanders. Where are you going, Sean with your 516 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 2: first receiving prop? So I'm going with Sterling Shepherd over 517 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 2: sixty two and a half receiving yards against the Panthers. Now, 518 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 2: you know, I'm assuming Kadarius Tony and Kenny Golladay will 519 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 2: be out. That certainly looks like it's gonna be the 520 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 2: case and Darius Layton's status is up in the air, 521 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 2: but I don't think that really matters for this market. 522 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 2: So I'm getting ahead of the line move that I 523 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 2: think is going to happen. 524 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 3: I think this is going to end closer to seventy 525 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,440 Speaker 3: receiving yards once it's official. Tony and gall of the 526 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 3: ear up. But you know, Shepherd is the kind of 527 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 3: guy that just has a massive floor. We saw it 528 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,439 Speaker 3: last week. He had ten catches for seventy six yards 529 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 3: in his return. He ran a route on close to 530 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 3: one hundred percent of the snaps last week. I believe 531 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 3: it was ninety five percent, So he's he's back to 532 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 3: being a full time player. I think the game plan 533 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 3: will have to be get the ball to Serling Shepherd. 534 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 3: So that's why I like the over here is because 535 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 3: he has such a high floor. I understand the appeal 536 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 3: that you know why you're back on unders this week, 537 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 3: But Serling Shepherd is the type of player I don't 538 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 3: mind taking me over, So I would actually take this 539 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 3: up to probably sixty six and a half. 540 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him right around seventy as well. He's 541 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 2: my wide receiver twelve this week and half PPR and 542 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 2: he's getting a target of twenty five percent of his 543 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,719 Speaker 2: routes run this year, and Kadarius Tony is also at 544 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 2: twenty five percent. So him being out is actually a major, 545 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 2: a major boon to Shepherd because he's really going to 546 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 2: be that guy. I think the Giants will struggle this 547 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 2: week overall on offense. I mean, Andrew Thomas being out 548 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 2: really hurts them, But Shepherd's been that guy. Evan Ingram 549 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 2: has been non existent, just a fifteen percent targets per 550 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 2: route run great, So yeah, I can't argue with this one. 551 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: I have him over as well. All right. 552 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 2: For my first receiving prop, going with cole Comet under 553 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 2: thirty and a half receiving yards. I know you like 554 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 2: the over for Fields here, but I think co Comet 555 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 2: is a guy you got to keep fading. He's been 556 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 2: under this number and four out of six games his 557 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 2: median is just sixteen and a half. This is another 558 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 2: prop where his median is about fifteen yards lower than 559 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 2: the prop. 560 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 1: So I'll take that all day. 561 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,880 Speaker 2: I think that fields because of the way they're kind 562 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 2: of max protecting. I still and Tempa Bay secondary banged up. 563 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 2: I still think the receivers are going to get the 564 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 2: brunt of the benefit if Fields has. 565 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 1: A career passing day. 566 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 2: So you look at co comet, he usually plays about 567 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 2: seventy percent, seventy five percent of the snaps in the 568 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,959 Speaker 2: thirteen games that he's done that in his career, you know, 569 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 2: all the games this year and then another seven last season. 570 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 2: He's been over thirty and a half in only five 571 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 2: of those thirteen games, just thirty eight percent. So it's 572 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 2: he's just a guy that you know, he's not He's 573 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 2: not really panned out to I think what we expected, 574 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,639 Speaker 2: you know, with Bears too, they wanted him to be 575 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 2: kind of a star. And the last couple of weeks, 576 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 2: Jimmy Graham is actually season high routes run thirty eight 577 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 2: percent each week, so. 578 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,160 Speaker 1: It's not like Jimmy Graham's been MI eight. 579 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 2: But eventually he's gonna get a target if he keeps 580 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 2: running routes too, So that can only hurt co commit 581 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 2: as well. So yeah, just a fade is a number 582 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 2: here with the it's essentially double his median. 583 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 1: I think that's way too high. So under thirty and 584 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,360 Speaker 1: a half for commit, Well. 585 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 3: It shouldn't be surprising that his media and solo given 586 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 3: the Bears have averaged like one hundred yards passing per game, 587 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 3: so but yeah, I agree. You know, I do think 588 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 3: Fields will go over two hundred and five and a 589 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 3: half passing yards, but that probably won't be due to 590 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 3: dumping it off to Cole Comet for four or five 591 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 3: yards at a time. 592 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 5: So I do like the under here. 593 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,679 Speaker 3: I'm projecting at twenty seven for his average, so you know, 594 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 3: I think the line should be closer to twenty one 595 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 3: twenty two and a half. And I did mention that 596 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 3: I liked him for DFS because he's so cheap, and 597 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 3: I'm expecting maybe you know, another int and target this week. 598 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 3: But like I said, I've never been a big Cole 599 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 3: Comet guy, so I can certainly get behind the under here. 600 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have my average is twenty seven as well, 601 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 2: so that's why. Yeah, I have his media in a 602 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 2: low twenties. So that's that's quite quite some value here 603 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 2: early in the week on this on this number, All right, 604 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,880 Speaker 2: where are you going for your second and final receiver prop? 605 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,680 Speaker 3: So I'm going really bold here again with an under 606 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 3: on a player that is on fire right now, and 607 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 3: that's Mark Andrews under sixty eight and a half receiving 608 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 3: yards against Bengals. Now, certainly Mark Andrews has a wide 609 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 3: range of outcomes, and you know, if he goes off 610 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 3: for one hundred and fifty hours here, I won't be 611 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 3: too surprised. But still, he's only gone over this number 612 00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:01,880 Speaker 3: once this year, I believe. Yeah, he's only gone over twice. 613 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 5: Two times. 614 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 1: Yeah he had I know, yeah, I know. 615 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,400 Speaker 3: He has two games over hundred yards, so he's absolutely 616 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,880 Speaker 3: gone over it twice. So it just goes to show 617 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 3: that even though he's off to a great start, you know, 618 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 3: he's not going over this number with regularity. I think 619 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 3: he comes back down to earth this week. If Sammy 620 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 3: Watkins returns, it'll be the first time Lamar Jackson has 621 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 3: all three starting receivers at his disposal, so I think 622 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 3: that that could impact Andrews a little bit. I think 623 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,920 Speaker 3: Nick Boyle might be returning either this week or next week, 624 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,200 Speaker 3: so that'll be interesting to see if he can cut 625 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 3: into his routes run. I know it probably doesn't matter 626 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 3: too much for other people, but when we're projecting players, 627 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 3: if you know Nick Boyle takes away, you know ten 628 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 3: percent of Andrew's routes ron that's going to ding him 629 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 3: close to half reception, so that's something I'll be looking 630 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 3: for in the future. But yeah, I think just this, 631 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 3: this prop is just a bit too high. I think, 632 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 3: you know, somewhere around like the low sixties, sixty two 633 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 3: and a half would be a fair number for this. 634 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 3: So I'm going to fade Andrews here with the under 635 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 3: although you know, still like him for fantasy. He's my 636 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 3: tight end two because of the touch on upside, but 637 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 3: he is a much lower medium than people realize. 638 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, you're you're going away from my guy Waller here. 639 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 2: You're going P two for Andrews. Oh for well, it's tied. Yeah, 640 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 2: so it's it's very close. But Andrews has him in 641 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 2: the touchdown projection OHA's huge. So I guess the the 642 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 2: higher floor play is still Waller. But just when it 643 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 2: comes to raw ranks, Andrews is my tight end two 644 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 2: right now. 645 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: I still have Waller two. I love him against the 646 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 1: zone coverage. 647 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 5: I'm not going to argue. I'm not going to argue 648 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 5: having Waller tight end two. 649 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 3: Oh. 650 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 2: I do want to say, though, I have Andrews average 651 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 2: projection at sixty five, so his median I have it. 652 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: It's barely. It's like under sixty. 653 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 2: So I am in agreement with the with the under here, 654 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 2: and I mean sixty eight and a half. That's just 655 00:29:55,640 --> 00:30:00,320 Speaker 2: a high number for any player in the national Well 656 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 2: we not named Davante Adams pretty much, so. 657 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,200 Speaker 3: He's allowed his ninety eight and a half or whatever 658 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 3: it is to speak like only he There's a lot 659 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 3: of reception projection that that high. 660 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: Ninety I have. DeVante had one hundred and fifteen yards 661 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 1: this week, so that shows you where I. 662 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 3: Am at no argument here for what it's worth. 663 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 2: Guys, you know, if you want to take it over, okay, 664 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 2: and I'll join you, though I'll fade a guy that 665 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 2: is uncomfortable to fade. And especially it's a primetime game, 666 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 2: so I know people will probably be looking for something 667 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 2: to root. 668 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 1: For, but that's not what we're here for. 669 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 2: We're here to play the numbers going under dk metcalf 670 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 2: sixty and a half receiving yards. 671 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 1: He's been under this in. 672 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 2: Three out of the six games already, and that's even 673 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 2: with you know, five games at Russell Wilson or four 674 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,280 Speaker 2: in three quarter games at Russell Wilson. Last week he 675 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 2: went over this. He had eleven targets and still only 676 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 2: fifty eight yards. And the reason I think that's worrisome 677 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 2: is because Pittsburgh is a little more, you know, zone 678 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 2: defense heavy. They're not gonna play quite as much man 679 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,160 Speaker 2: as a team like New Orleans. 680 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 1: Like New Orleans loves to play man coverage. 681 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 2: They played at the seventh highest rate DK Metcalf this 682 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 2: season against man coverage just six point seven yards per target, 683 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 2: against zone coverage thirteen yards per target, so it's almost 684 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 2: double the amount of production in last season as well. 685 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 2: He had a much better yard per target against zone 686 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 2: than against man. So this just spells trouble with Gino 687 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 2: Smith at quarterback because you're gonna have a guy like 688 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,719 Speaker 2: Marshawn Lattimore probably following him. And remember New Orleans held 689 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 2: Davante Adams to just fifty six yards and Terry McLaurin 690 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 2: to forty six yards, So this isn't one of those defenses. 691 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 2: When they face an elite receiver, more often than not 692 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 2: you're gonna see that receiver come well short of expectations, 693 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 2: and every once in a while a guy will get 694 00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 2: a big play and go over. But the fact that 695 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 2: we have Gen Smith here and he got eleven targets 696 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,600 Speaker 2: in an overtime game and still didn't go over the 697 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 2: number against a defense that I think he was better 698 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 2: suited to face. You know, I'm really worried about him 699 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 2: in this spot. So under sixty and a half for 700 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 2: DK Metcalf, I have about fifty five. 701 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it, and I always say I never 702 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 3: want to bet against DK Metcalf, but this, this seems 703 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,479 Speaker 3: like more of a bet against Geno Smith. That's why 704 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,520 Speaker 3: I can get behind it. So yeah, I'm there with you. 705 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,960 Speaker 3: I have I have his projection closer to sixty, So yeah, 706 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,560 Speaker 3: my median we closer at about fifty five and a 707 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 3: half as well. 708 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 5: Yep, all right. 709 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 2: Next up here on the Fantasy flex to the segment 710 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 2: we call Elite entries, where Sean and I dive into 711 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 2: the Prize Picks app and compare our player projections to 712 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,960 Speaker 2: the props to build some entries. Sean, what's your first 713 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 2: Prize Picks Elite entry best. 714 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 1: Bet for the Week seven? 715 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 3: So my first pick is justin fields over two hundred 716 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 3: and five and a half passing yards against the Buccaneers. 717 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 3: Consider this sort of a redemption prop. The last time 718 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 3: I took fields over two hundred and five and a 719 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,880 Speaker 3: half passing yards. It was his NFL debut and he 720 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 3: finished with sixty eight yards. However, I'm making a bold 721 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 3: predictioneer he's going to set his career high in passing 722 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 3: yards in the game, which is currently two hundred and nine. 723 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,240 Speaker 3: I think he actually ends up throwing for more than 724 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 3: two hundred and thirty yards here. The Buccaneers are a 725 00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 3: pass funnel defense. This should be a negative game script, 726 00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 3: so all signs points the fields having recurred a through 727 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 3: the air. So I like the over two hundred and 728 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 3: five and a half passing yards for fields. 729 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 2: I'm going with Matt Jones under two hundred and forty 730 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 2: six and a half passing yards. Patriots are seven point 731 00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 2: favorites against the Jets, and Jones averaging just two hundred 732 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 2: and nine yards and wins compared to two hundred and 733 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 2: sixty four he losses. They had a season low one 734 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,120 Speaker 2: eighty six against the Jets in the first matchup. 735 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,200 Speaker 1: Shaw, where you going for three seconds? 736 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 3: I am going with the under sixty eight and a 737 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 3: half re senior yards for Mark Andrews here. You know, 738 00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 3: certainly he's been on fire this year. 739 00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 5: He's been fire. He's got on fire. 740 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 3: The past few games, but he's only gotten over this 741 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 3: number twice in six games this year. So he's just 742 00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 3: the kind of guy that has a wide range of outcomes. 743 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 3: You know, Lamar Jackson might have all three receivers back 744 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,760 Speaker 3: this week with you know, Hollywood Brown and Sammy Watkins 745 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 3: and first round picker Sean Bateman, so that could be 746 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 3: less you know, maybe one or two less targets for 747 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 3: Mark Andrews. And you know Titan Nick Boyle is he's 748 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 3: been activated from the ir there's a chance he could 749 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 3: suit up this week. 750 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:28,919 Speaker 5: I would like this even more if he's able to play. 751 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 3: So I'm projecting this closer to sixty and a half 752 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 3: receiving Yarns, So I would take this down closer in 753 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:34,319 Speaker 3: about sixty four and a. 754 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 2: Half and I'll close it out with DeAndre Swift under 755 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 2: forty three and a half rushing yards. He's been under 756 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,720 Speaker 2: this number in four out of six games. His median 757 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,719 Speaker 2: is thirty eight, and that's what I would take this 758 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 2: down to thirty eight and a half against this RAM defense. 759 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 1: That's been one of the better defenses. 760 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 2: Against the run in the game. That should be a 761 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 2: lot of negative game script are Detroit, So I think 762 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 2: they'll throw the ball to with more than anything. That's 763 00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 2: going to wrap it up for our elite entry for today. 764 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 2: To recap Sean going justin fields over two hundred five 765 00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,920 Speaker 2: and a half passing yards against the Bucks, Mark Andrews 766 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 2: under sixty eight and a half receiving yards against the Bengals, 767 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,720 Speaker 2: I'm going Matt Jones under two hundred and forty six 768 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 2: and a half passing yards against Jets, and DeAndre Swift 769 00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:19,840 Speaker 2: under forty three and a half rushing yards against the Rams. 770 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,759 Speaker 2: As a reminder, Prize Picks markets do move, so you 771 00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,839 Speaker 2: want to get on it quickly in order to. 772 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 1: Lock in the best numbers. 773 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 2: If you have not created a Prize Pricks account yet, 774 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 2: could check out the link in our episode description and 775 00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 2: they will match your first deposit up to one hundred hours. 776 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 2: Or you can visit prize picks dot com and use 777 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:43,320 Speaker 2: the promo code Action ten. That's act ion one zero, 778 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,239 Speaker 2: all right, So that is going to wrap it up 779 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,799 Speaker 2: for our Week seven props to recap Sean going with 780 00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 2: justin fields over two hundred five and a half passing yards, 781 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:56,280 Speaker 2: Cordery Patterson under forty one and a half receiving yards 782 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 2: Joe Mixon over sixty three and a half rushing yards, 783 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 2: Earling Shepherd over sixty two and a half receiving yards, 784 00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 2: and Mark Andrews under sixty eight and a half receiving yards. 785 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,800 Speaker 2: I am going with Matt Jones under two hundred and 786 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 2: forty six and a half passing yards, DeAndre Swift under 787 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,640 Speaker 2: forty three and a half rushing yards, Miles Sanders under 788 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,840 Speaker 2: sixty five and a half rushing yards, Cole Comet under 789 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,960 Speaker 2: thirty and a half receiving yards, and dk Metcalf under 790 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,520 Speaker 2: sixty and a half receiving yards. 791 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,319 Speaker 1: That is going to do it for the pod. Good 792 00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:34,200 Speaker 1: luck this weekend. 793 00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 2: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. 794 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 1: You can find me at Chris Raybon. 795 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,640 Speaker 2: You can find all of our prop picks by following 796 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 2: us at those same handles. 797 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:46,560 Speaker 1: In the Action Network app. 798 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 2: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for our 799 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:53,320 Speaker 2: fantasy football rankings, projections, and betting content, and Fantasy Labs 800 00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 2: dot com for our DFS content, models and tools. 801 00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:03,319 Speaker 1: Until next time, let's get this money to kick him