WEBVTT - How a Rural Irish Farmer Became an Expert on the Euro Crisis 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:11.080 Hello, and welcome to another edition of the Odd Lots Podcast. 0:00:11.160 --> 0:00:16.480 I'm Joe Wisenthal, Managing editor of Bloomberg Markets. My colleague 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:20.040 and co host Tracy Elloway is away this week. She's 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:24.400 out in the desert uh and on safari near Abu Dhabi. 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:27.240 UH So we miss her this week, but we have 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:31.040 a special episode this week. Another one of our colleagues 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:34.160 is with us. Today we're going to talk to or 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:36.600 me I guess I should say. Today I'm going to 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:42.320 talk to Lorcan roach Kelly. He's our handyman social media 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:48.640 expert at Bloomberg Market, also a expert on the Eurozone, 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:54.280 the ECB, and most extraordinarily, he comes to us from 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:58.000 the small town or village of six mile Bridge, Ireland, 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:01.320 where he has a farm with cows. And I'm pretty 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:04.960 sure he's the only person in six mile Bridge who 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:08.280 has a Bloomberg terminal. I don't know that for sure, 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:11.960 but I'm like ninett nine percent sure. And we're going 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:15.080 to talk a little bit about what's going on in 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:18.119 the Eurozone these days. There's a lot of tension once 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:22.200 again around government and the banks. But before we get 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:26.360 to that conversation, I want to uh talk to Lorcan 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:31.640 about how he became a farmer who is also a 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:34.600 expert on the e c B. So Lorcan, thank you 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:37.880 very much for joining the Odd Lots podcast. Joe, great 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:41.240 to be here. So Lorcan, let's start from the beginning. 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:45.200 There aren't many people who are experts on the ECB 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:50.480 and the Eurozone who also live on an operating farm 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:54.800 with cows. What's your background? How did you? Where does 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.320 your story start? Take us from as far back as 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.880 you'd like to go. I suppose, I'm I suppose it 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:02.440 was was start the bit that people might be interested in, 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:04.840 which is how I got to be where I am, 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.240 And it's a I suppose the start of it starts 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:09.080 out with a bit of a tragedy away and that 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:11.720 I used to work as an exposive engineer in the mind, 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:14.840 which just straight up is the best job in the world. 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:16.760 At the end of every day, no matter how bad 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:18.760 your day is being you get to blow up a 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:22.600 lot of stuff, which is incredibly therapeutic. I think everybody 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:24.880 should get to blow something up at some point. It 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:27.280 was it would solve many of the world's problems. What 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:30.000 are the kind of skills that you have to have 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:32.480 to be an explosive engineer. What what is the job 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:35.000 really involved? You have to to run really fast. That's 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.880 the number one skill. I think that is basically what 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:40.800 it is with exposes. When you're exposing in the mind, 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.800 you have to design an explosive blast in a way 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:46.280 that it will blast what you want to blast and 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:48.600 leave everything else alone. It's very important that you don't 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:50.120 blow up the stuff you don't want to blow up. 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:53.280 And it's my background is engineering, so it's that's what's 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:56.280 that's kind of spatial development stuff. That was kind of 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:59.320 fush a lot of what I was doing anyway, So 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.240 this was Ireland. What kind of mining is big in Ireland? 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:05.040 And the base metal, lead and zinc mines. We have 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:07.360 one of the biggest lead zinc mine in Europe is 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:10.120 in Ireland. It's writing, it's pretty much mine. That was 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.640 the moment, has been there since the nineteen seventies. All right, 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:15.520 so let's take the next step. So then what did 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:19.080 you do after? So after in two thousand and seven, 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:21.519 my my first wife dies and so I've left for 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.280 two children. So I was in mining, which meant I 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:26.959 traveled a lot, So obviously I had to stop that 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.040 job come home. Look after the kids, and I found 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:32.160 self in the position where I was very time rich 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:35.480 and cash poor. And if you remember two thousand seven, 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.000 thou there was one event that was dominating the world 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:39.880 at the time. I think I remember that and that 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.960 that was the financial crisis. So I was, like I said, 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:45.080 I was time rich. So I started looking into this, 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:47.800 going okay, I'm naturally curious, I suppose. So I started looking. 0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:50.160 It's going, okay, what what's causing this? What does it mean? 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:52.600 And I found a lot of the corbadge I was 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:55.040 reading was very saying and then that's what I mean. 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:57.080 It is like everyone was on the same path saying 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:58.720 the same thing, saying to say, like the euro is 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:01.400 going to fall apart, the whole world's going to hell 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:05.680 in a hand basket by gold. You hadn't studied this before. 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:08.600 You don't have a background in economics or finance or 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:12.720 anything like that. I did economics and it's in high school, 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:15.320 and beyond that, I hand on anything with it. So 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.839 it was basically you had a lot of time on 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:22.240 your hands. You saw that the world was kind of 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.440 falling apart. There was a lot of anxiety in Ireland, 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:28.520 and in particular because of how big the banking sector was, 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.200 and so you just wanted to sort of scratch an 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:33.760 itch and see what the heck was going on. Actually, 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:37.000 and I think it's like with the firmans well at 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:39.000 the time, but the firms that I say, if the firm, 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.000 my father is eight years old this year, the farm 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.520 is still in his name because Irish people are very 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.760 funny about farmland. You never sell land, you never give 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:48.479 it away. You have to wait for the generation above 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.480 you to die before you get it, which sounds very macavelium, 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:54.640 but how it is. But then whatever, when I was 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.400 growing up, there was the five children in my family. 0:04:57.520 --> 0:04:59.400 Five wasn't the family. And my mother always sets was 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:01.280 when you were growing you have to go to college. 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:03.720 You have to get a good degree, or you end 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:06.000 up with the firm. The firm was always the threat. 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:08.680 It's the white elephant, that the thing that nobody wants 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:12.280 to have because you're you're kind of stoked. You can't 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:14.919 ever sell it. You've got an asset, that money, but 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:16.680 you can't lick with it. It's been the family for 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:19.440 twenty five generations. You have to hold it for the 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:21.600 next generation. So you didn't go to college and you 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:23.960 ended up with something that that's pretty much what happened. Yes, 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:25.960 I was the black sheep, so the black sheep ended 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:28.800 up with the cows. So what what was you said? 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:31.960 You were curious? What was the first thing you looked into? 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:35.240 What was the first question you suddenly answered to? I 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:37.200 think that the first question. I thought that it was 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:41.080 how are ever was saying that the Irish banks you 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.440 should throw a draw money from the banks. Everyone should 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:45.960 be deposit flights. And my my first question was what's 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:48.680 the mechanics? So this is my engineering backgrounds, like what's 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:51.120 the mechanics that are keeping the banks open? If everyone 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:54.320 is taking their money out? Should the banks fall over? Like? 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.440 How are they not closing down? Because the one thing 0:05:57.480 --> 0:05:59.960 we didn't have when we weren't having we're bank failures. 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:03.960 And I was nosing around asking people because Joe I 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:06.080 knew nothing, so I was able to ask the really 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:09.000 dumb questions that other people wouldn't like to ask. And 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:12.400 I got talking to an Orish economists called David McWilliams, 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:14.320 who I ended up actually working for after a while 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.279 because end up being his researcher. And as part of 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:19.840 that research gig I was doing, I was finding I 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:21.719 was reading, like I said, I was trying rich. I 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:25.880 was reading lots of bank banks plan annual reports, all 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:28.520 the hundred forty five pages of them, just to try 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:30.960 and figure out my own head how this machine that 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:34.000 is a bank works. And the thing I was finding 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:36.600 out with them was like, the banks are still standing 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:41.120 because they're getting liquidity, which is money from somewhere. And 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:42.960 it was to find joke, to follow the money, where 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.320 is this money coming from? And as part of that. 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:48.880 In two thousand and nine, I think it was I 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:51.560 was reading Anglo Irish Banks, which is probably one of 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:54.640 the worst banks that whatever existed in the Arby manage, 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:57.159 reading there any report and there was a footnote number 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.960 six seventeen on page A hundred and twenty seven which 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:02.719 they were getting eleven billion euros from the Irish Central 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.279 Bank as part of the master Loan We Purchase agreement, 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.560 which is a bit technical. But I saw that I 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:10.960 don't know what that is, so I'll ask somebody. So 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:13.760 I got onto some like Jaredson's Banks spot Is and 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.320 ask loan Purchase agreement and they said this is something 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:18.360 we used to use in the nineties when Ireland had 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:21.240 its own currency. That floated to balance the currency at 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:23.360 the end of the day. And then the next question 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:25.800 asked was why white. Where have you seen that written down? 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:28.640 And I said, I saw it on Anglo Irish Banks 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:31.440 two thousand nine report. And then the next thing they 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:34.080 said to it was we didn't have this conversation and 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:39.960 they hope, Okay, there's definitely something here, so and to 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.800 to find trying to find out about that. I found 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:45.240 out about this thing called Emergency Liquidity Assistance e l 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:48.160 A back in two thousand nine when I think it was. 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:50.440 It was supposed to be a secret, but they just 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:52.720 show didn't think any would ever ask about it. So 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:57.040 they literally had this thing buried in a footnote deep 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:00.960 in an annual report that they didn't really want anyone 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:03.680 to look into. But it was sort of it answered 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:07.720 the mystery of mysteries because there was a big part 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:09.320 of the balant sheet and that they had to put 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:11.000 it in their banat the number and they have to 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:12.960 explain where the number came from. So they explained it 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:15.560 in a way that kind of Joe, don't look any furthers, 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:19.080 don't look behind the Nobody else was poking around and 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:22.600 asking these questions. Besides you, not that I know of. 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:25.680 I remember I wrote about the l A in two 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:31.880 thousand and ten emergency and at the time because I 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:35.000 use the first the first point of any investigations to 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.560 just go to Google and type the words in and 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:40.719 see what comes up. And nothing came up, like the 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.320 ECB hadn't even published their rules for l A in 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.280 a meaningful way at that stage. So that's where I started, right. 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:49.400 So then I because the guys worked for Dave McWilliams. 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:52.600 He's a he writes for a broad audience. He wasn't 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:57.120 FreeFly interested in isn't he knew his audience the intrixees 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.320 of Central Banks Banet. So I started a blog as 0:09:00.360 --> 0:09:02.200 I write with this thing, just like Joe. It was 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:06.040 aimed at that's what nerds like myself and that became 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:09.440 very popular. And through that becoming popular, then I think 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:12.199 the ft picked up in a few How did people 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:15.080 find it? That's not a lot over that step, because 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.800 I want had a blog and that's how I got started. 0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:22.800 But how do people find your blog? Who was reading it? Ums? 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:24.240 For TO? A lot of this is for TO this 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:29.000 time it's with um Paul Murphy at FT Alphabelle who 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:30.800 was starting in this thing called markets Lie the ft 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:32.360 Alp and then they still run it to this day. 0:09:32.880 --> 0:09:35.839 Well they start talking about today and you could comment 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.960 and say, look, I think this is important. I think 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:39.920 one of the things that I thought it was on 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:41.079 it one day and I said, look, I think this 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:44.559 how anglers panks t open is important, and I pointed 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:47.319 towards this blog and Paul then took my blog and 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:50.920 republished it at the Alphaville blog itself. And once you 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:53.599 get re published once or twice, like, the thing just 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:55.920 gets the momentum and then you're seeing as an expert 0:09:56.120 --> 0:10:01.920 in So I started following you on Twitter it maybe 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.720 late two thousand nine, but that you had really made 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:08.080 your name by that point at least among a very 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:11.800 sort of narrow influential media set as someone who really 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:15.199 knew the ins and outs by that point of the 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:19.319 Irish banking system. Okay, so you're on the farm and 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:24.040 through the magic of the Internet and blogs and Twitter, 0:10:24.200 --> 0:10:27.640 you start to establish yourself as someone who's really done 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.480 the work to figure out what's going on in Ireland, 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.719 what's next, What's what, what's where? Did where did it 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.559 lead from there? And then the next thing, I'm an 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:40.199 American UM company who are obviously looking to get some 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:44.120 European coverage. Yeah, tracked me down through via Twitter and 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.520 the ends and offered me a job. That would you 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:49.520 like to come to New York. We'll fill you over. 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:51.480 We'd like to sit down and child just see how 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:54.640 we're looking for for a view on the whole Eurozone 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:57.360 that we're not getting. I think maybe it's an important 0:10:57.400 --> 0:10:59.520 point that I made to the guy in the don's 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:03.120 gonna end up working for is there are seventeen there 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.839 were times seventeen countries that use the Euro Area. The 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:08.160 US use the Euros the currency. There's only one that 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:12.079 speaks English. That's aren't a lot of particularly at the 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:14.560 time there's two thousand nights as and said a lot 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:17.480 of the media. I suppose feed that was coming into 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:20.600 New York, particularly in the Wall Streets, was coming out 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:24.240 of London, and at the time maybe still exists now, 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.599 there was a certain bias amongst reportage from London on 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.640 the euro Area, as in, look at that terrible thing 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:32.800 over there, it's falling apart, It's going to burn to 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.439 the ground, aren't we So betver not been in the 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:38.360 euro So all I had to do all is do. 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:40.800 But I kind of once I figured out how the 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.800 ECB worked and how they were proping off the entire 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:46.360 system through E l A when they had to what say, 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:50.640 things might get bad, but for things to break, it's 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:53.000 going to be a very big jump from where we are. Yeah, 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:56.280 I remember, you know, because I was following the Eurozone 0:11:56.320 --> 0:12:00.160 crisis pretty intently back then, and I remember how you know, 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.720 it would sort of one there would be the period 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:04.679 when everyone was talking about Greece and then everyone was 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:08.200 talking about Spain. But I really did appreciate when Ireland 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:10.440 was in the spotlight, simply because it was the only 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:13.760 time when I could read the local press that follow 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:17.240 up was happening in the parliament or the Doyle is 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.599 you call it, because I could actually understand what the 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.719 politicians were saying. So I really did appreciate that, And 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:25.920 I think it's kind of a broader point that I 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.640 also I've learned a lot, is that if you can 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:31.120 ever get to the source of information, get to the 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.920 source information. Because if you read reports, especially on the report, 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:39.040 say on the German parliament or the Greek tournament, it's 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:42.640 always true and Lens that always so, and the UK 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:45.959 press is not known for. It's sort of like cool, 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:51.280 level headed, lack of hyperbole. Is. Yeah, they have papers 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:53.080 to sell and they're good at selling papers. I guess. 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:57.320 So let's sort of skip ahead, and how long did 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:59.880 you work for the American firm and what did you 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:04.600 He finished in twenty thirteen, I think, but to thirteen 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.880 finished and went to start on my own because I 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:10.120 developed a few clients in London, and by having my 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.880 own client based London, it was just meant I did 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:14.880 not have to fight. You know it states that's once 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:16.839 a month. And what did you do? These clients you 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:19.560 told you gave them your view on what was happening 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:22.800 in the year zones, give a view give I think 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.160 the clients particularly, we're interested in what the European Central Bank, 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:30.079 because by twenty people looked to central banks. I think 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.920 the big change between two thousand and seven and two 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.439 thousand and thirteen is in two thousand and seven thousand 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:39.200 people were still looking to governments to solve the problem. 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:44.360 By twelve thirteen normally looked to governments anymore. That sounds 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:47.920 so quaint, the idea that any any government could do anything. 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:51.120 Now we live in this time when central banks really 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:54.720 are all where the action is. So it's the point 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:56.640 I think that less than ten years ago we actually 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.480 might have believed the governments could be competent to fix something. 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:02.640 Ten years ago we were all kimdy and looks now 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:07.520 yeah crazy. Now we're all monitoris all right? So let's 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:10.440 jump ahead because now you're our colleague. You work at 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:15.720 uh Bloomberg. You came here I think early, just about 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:19.800 a year ago. You do uh social media, You do 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.360 some editing, you do some writing, you sort of do 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.000 your you do a little bit of everything. What's your 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.200 day like right now? I think there's a lot of 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:32.400 fascination and curiosity about this person who works for Bloomberg, 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.800 who lives on a farm with cows. Take me through 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:39.520 a day in the life of Lorcan. Right now you're 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.120 you're at busy time for Lorcan because right now is 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:45.040 calving season. Caving season kicked off the end of January, 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.360 beginning the ferry. So right now, on my day, I 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.360 get up our own sickly m go out check the cows, 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:52.960 because Joe check in the morning, how many cows do 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:55.680 you have? We've only got turkey cows, so we have 0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:59.400 turts turkeys, and what is checking the cows entail. You 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:03.320 go up. I suppose I'm talking to a towny here, 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:06.120 so I better take this slowly. The first thing you 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.080 do is make sure they have feed and water. So 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.360 I come in what I'm sure they fed water, make 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:14.080 sure there's known new cars. I come in for seven 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.040 I am turned on my coming to my office, turn 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.800 on the terminal, turn on the web, and catch up 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:22.720 with what's happened in the markets where markets are going 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:26.080 for today. I've then got about an hour and a 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:28.960 half to get everything updates, to get the website updats, 0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:32.080 get Twitter flowing, get Facebook flowing, and then I go 0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:34.320 back out to the cows again for twenty minutes to 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:36.920 make sure they're okay. Back in again for nine o'clock, 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:40.520 and then I start. Every morning, I do this five 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.840 things that are happening in the markets today, posting and loss. 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.440 It goes out it's about nine nine fifteen. I'll started 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:49.960 writing that get the idea of where we're going, while 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:53.240 continuing to make sure that all the social media side 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:57.080 is updated. Once the five things is published, I'll go 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.880 for lunch for about twenty minutes. Lunches actually a but 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:02.480 back up to the cause. Make sure they get their 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.080 lunch because basically before I think it's are important, and 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.360 then come in for the afternoon work work at the 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:11.880 office for the afternoon, around five pm, finish up, back 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.600 out to the couch and then make sure that everything's okay, 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:18.160 come in, have a dinner and then normally about half 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:20.360 a night o'clock, go backups getting just check for calves 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:23.200 and stuff like that. Check for calves. On the typical day, 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.240 there's no calves. On the typical day, there's no calves, 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.920 but what the moment, because we're in calving season, there 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.360 is on a typical day, there's always the possibility of calves. 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.040 And you live your you live in a town of 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:36.720 six mile Bridge, right, So how many people? Where is 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.960 six mile Bridge? How many people live in six mile Bridge? 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:43.560 And why is it called that? Six month Bridge is 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:47.240 a town of about people. It's in the west of 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:50.560 Ireland's in a place called County Claire. It's handling enough. 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:52.960 It's ten minutes away from an international airport. There's an 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:55.040 airport in the west foreign and called Shannon, which means 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:57.720 it's quicker for me to get to London than this 0:16:57.840 --> 0:16:59.600 for me to get to the capital of Ireland. Because 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:01.760 I can drive to the airport. Came a plane in London. 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.800 It's called six Mile Bridge because apparently years ago it 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:09.280 was six miles from the nearest town of Limerick, which 0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:11.600 is kind of six miles from the nearest place people 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:13.600 actually want to be because there's a bridge. Is the 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:17.200 smallest in market town. It's got seven pubs, two churches 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:21.639 and two shops. Yeah. Our colleague Dash visited you in 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.720 Ireland last summer and I think, if I recall, he 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.320 couldn't find your plays and you didn't have cell service, 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.399 and you just walked into one of the pubs and 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.880 asked like, does anyone know Lorcan And they were able 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.160 to figure out who he was talking about, right, yeah, 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.320 pretty much immediately they knew who you're talking about. That 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:38.840 this is not saying that I'm someone that that spent 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:40.520 all of my time in the pub. I just spent 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:43.240 Tim's outlining how busy I about that? Clearly, I have 0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:48.760 no time for clearly, clear um. And in the summer, 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:52.000 I remember you told me you right, you have a tractor, right, 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.080 and you could just be out there on your tractor, 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.520 on your iPad checking the terminal, right, yeah, yeah, yeah, 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.160 So during the summer. Sometimes if I do so has 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.399 an a lum day, I can I can bring my 0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:04.720 ipen out detractor and then it's got a one of 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:08.040 the signal movement signal and I can update Twitter. I 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:10.520 can do Facebook from the tractor if I want. I 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:13.080 think it makes a lot of people here very jealous 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:15.879 in your lifestyle. I think whenever when anyone at the 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.119 office hears about that, that that's your I think that 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:23.120 immediately seems appealing. All right, let's um make the conversation 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:27.200 a little more topical, because once again there's a lot 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:30.920 of anxiety about Europe. We've seen some of the big 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:35.200 European banks, their stocks have really been getting slammed lately, 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:39.720 Deutsche Bank, Credit, Suez. We're starting to see UH some 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:44.720 increases in borrowing costs for some UH sovereign for some 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:47.760 governments again, Portuguese borrowing costs have been on the rise, 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:51.359 Italy and Spain picking up a little bit. What's going on? 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:54.679 Why are people suddenly sort of nervous again in Europe? 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:57.800 I can give you five reasons if you want, but 0:18:58.119 --> 0:18:59.760 to de pick the one that I most believe in 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:03.399 be tricky. I think, first of all, if you look 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:05.280 at where banks, or if you do like the stress, 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:08.320 and how banks are making money up to two thousand 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:10.640 and seven and how banks are trying to make money 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:15.640 now are completely different worlds. It was basically, pilem high 0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:17.560 and sell them cheap was the way you made money 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:20.040 in too does its just it was market share and 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:21.760 get get your marrigine as much as you can, and 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.160 there's no risk in the world, so you can slip 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:26.560 your profits. At the end of every year. Things will 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.560 blow up, as they eventually did, but fild the going 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.440 as good. You're making good money. These days, banks are 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:37.359 very very regulators, so I think that they're almost afraid 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:39.760 to try new things. The model that they used to 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:42.840 have is broken. So if I'm an investor and a 0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:44.560 look at the bank and say, okay, how is this 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:47.880 this bank? That is this large mention it? But I say, 0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:51.000 how was a large legacy bank going to make money 0:19:51.040 --> 0:19:54.320 in the next five years? Where is my dividend yield 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:57.920 going to come from? I can't see it, But Joe, 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:00.360 but that's not myself. I can't see so I don't 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:03.040 think an investor could see it. And I think that's 0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:05.320 but that's not the problems right now? Right now, we're 0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:10.160 looking at a squeeze, so it'll last play into five weeks. 0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:15.000 And European banks have got killed this year. And that's 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:18.119