1 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:23,410 Speaker 1: Pushkin. On the tenth of November twenty twenty two, Sam 2 00:00:23,450 --> 00:00:27,170 Speaker 1: Bankwin Freed tweeted that he had eft UP. As we 3 00:00:27,250 --> 00:00:32,850 Speaker 1: explored in our last episode, that was something of an understatement. FTX, 4 00:00:33,010 --> 00:00:38,050 Speaker 1: the digital currency exchange platform where individuals could trade cryptocurrencies 5 00:00:38,330 --> 00:00:42,250 Speaker 1: and store their funds for safekeeping, imploded when it emerged 6 00:00:42,290 --> 00:00:45,530 Speaker 1: that Sam bankmin Freed had been diverting funds into his 7 00:00:45,690 --> 00:00:51,330 Speaker 1: crypto hedge fund Alamedia Research fraud. Yes, but as an 8 00:00:51,370 --> 00:00:54,650 Speaker 1: effective altruist, he was doing it for a good cause, 9 00:00:54,810 --> 00:00:59,330 Speaker 1: wasn't he. In his own misguided way, he thought he 10 00:00:59,490 --> 00:01:02,810 Speaker 1: was just following the teachings of Will mccaskell, the founder 11 00:01:02,890 --> 00:01:06,490 Speaker 1: of the Effective Altruism movement, and that can't be bad, 12 00:01:07,330 --> 00:01:10,890 Speaker 1: can it. If you've not listened to that episode yet, 13 00:01:10,930 --> 00:01:14,930 Speaker 1: please do before listening to this special Cautionary conversation with 14 00:01:15,170 --> 00:01:18,050 Speaker 1: Michael Lewis, the man who had a ringside seat for 15 00:01:18,090 --> 00:01:23,770 Speaker 1: the spectacular fall of the cryptocurrency vunderkind. Michael, Welcome to 16 00:01:23,810 --> 00:01:24,610 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales. 17 00:01:24,930 --> 00:01:25,970 Speaker 2: Tim. Good to see you again. 18 00:01:26,530 --> 00:01:28,610 Speaker 1: It's great to see you. I think the last time 19 00:01:28,610 --> 00:01:30,490 Speaker 1: we saw each other, I was trying to teach you 20 00:01:30,530 --> 00:01:32,850 Speaker 1: how to play an obscure German board game. 21 00:01:32,930 --> 00:01:35,330 Speaker 2: Then that's exactly right. I can't even remember what book 22 00:01:35,410 --> 00:01:37,610 Speaker 2: led you to get interested. Maybe the Big Short. I 23 00:01:37,610 --> 00:01:39,690 Speaker 2: think it was The Big Short. But the FtM were like, 24 00:01:39,690 --> 00:01:41,650 Speaker 2: oh no, you can't just talk to Michael Lewis about 25 00:01:41,650 --> 00:01:43,730 Speaker 2: his book. You have to talk to Michael Lewis about 26 00:01:43,730 --> 00:01:47,890 Speaker 2: his book while you teach him a weird German board game. 27 00:01:48,210 --> 00:01:50,730 Speaker 2: I thought it was actually ingenius because I try to 28 00:01:50,770 --> 00:01:53,050 Speaker 2: do this with subjects, and especially if you only have 29 00:01:53,050 --> 00:01:55,810 Speaker 2: a short time with them. You're so much better off 30 00:01:55,930 --> 00:01:58,930 Speaker 2: doing something with someone than just talking to them, if 31 00:01:58,970 --> 00:02:01,130 Speaker 2: you're trying to kind of get some insight into how 32 00:02:01,130 --> 00:02:04,370 Speaker 2: they tick. The best job interview I ever had it 33 00:02:04,410 --> 00:02:06,770 Speaker 2: was to lead teenage girls through Europe when I was 34 00:02:06,810 --> 00:02:09,250 Speaker 2: twenty two years old. I went to the tour agency 35 00:02:09,730 --> 00:02:12,250 Speaker 2: and the guy who ran the tour agency said, God, 36 00:02:12,290 --> 00:02:14,610 Speaker 2: I forgot you had an interview. This day. We're supposed 37 00:02:14,650 --> 00:02:16,570 Speaker 2: to move the furniture from this office down the hall 38 00:02:16,610 --> 00:02:18,210 Speaker 2: of the other office. Could you just help me do that, 39 00:02:18,890 --> 00:02:20,610 Speaker 2: and then if we have time left over, we'll talk. 40 00:02:20,970 --> 00:02:23,250 Speaker 2: And I spent an hour moving furniture with this guy 41 00:02:23,610 --> 00:02:25,130 Speaker 2: and I left. He said, I'll call you about the 42 00:02:25,170 --> 00:02:27,930 Speaker 2: interview later and I left bewildered. Yeah, like a week 43 00:02:28,010 --> 00:02:30,210 Speaker 2: later he said, you have the job. And two months 44 00:02:30,250 --> 00:02:32,810 Speaker 2: later I'm in a hotel room with my fellow leader 45 00:02:32,890 --> 00:02:35,690 Speaker 2: in like Bruges, and I said, you know, this was odd. 46 00:02:35,730 --> 00:02:38,090 Speaker 2: I was never interviewed, and I explained what happened. He said, 47 00:02:38,290 --> 00:02:41,210 Speaker 2: I moved that furniture too back the other way, and 48 00:02:41,290 --> 00:02:43,250 Speaker 2: it was a really smart way to kind of figure 49 00:02:43,290 --> 00:02:45,650 Speaker 2: out whether someone was collaborative, whether they could pick up 50 00:02:45,650 --> 00:02:48,410 Speaker 2: stuff quickly, how they interacted with people. So I took 51 00:02:48,450 --> 00:02:50,490 Speaker 2: it as a sign you were a clever journalist when 52 00:02:50,490 --> 00:02:50,890 Speaker 2: you did this. 53 00:02:51,290 --> 00:02:54,450 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, or I have a clever editor. But yeah, Michael, 54 00:02:54,690 --> 00:02:57,090 Speaker 1: I'm already feeling bad that I haven't brought a board 55 00:02:57,130 --> 00:02:59,650 Speaker 1: game this time. But I'm sure we'll be fine. I'm 56 00:02:59,650 --> 00:03:01,810 Speaker 1: sure we'll be fine. We are going to talk about 57 00:03:02,250 --> 00:03:05,530 Speaker 1: the time you spent with Sam Bankmanfried, what you made 58 00:03:05,530 --> 00:03:07,810 Speaker 1: of him, what you made of the influence of the 59 00:03:07,850 --> 00:03:10,930 Speaker 1: defective altruism had on him. And we're also going to 60 00:03:10,930 --> 00:03:14,170 Speaker 1: be answering listener questions, and we'll be talking about your 61 00:03:14,210 --> 00:03:19,170 Speaker 1: new book Who Is Government. Before all of that, here 62 00:03:19,450 --> 00:03:45,850 Speaker 1: is the caution details thing. The most remarkable thing about 63 00:03:46,250 --> 00:03:49,490 Speaker 1: Going Infinite is that when you started working on it, 64 00:03:49,570 --> 00:03:51,090 Speaker 1: you had no idea that you were going to be 65 00:03:51,130 --> 00:03:55,890 Speaker 1: covering the fraud of the century. You were just intrigued 66 00:03:55,930 --> 00:03:59,330 Speaker 1: by Sam bankman Fried And this book turned into a 67 00:03:59,410 --> 00:04:02,650 Speaker 1: very different book during the course of writing it. And 68 00:04:02,690 --> 00:04:05,450 Speaker 1: it feels like this is not the first time you've 69 00:04:05,450 --> 00:04:07,650 Speaker 1: been in the right place at the right time. I'm 70 00:04:07,690 --> 00:04:10,850 Speaker 1: curious how how always hey that you find your subjects. 71 00:04:11,050 --> 00:04:13,370 Speaker 2: You know, I stumbled into this. I had no idea 72 00:04:13,410 --> 00:04:16,410 Speaker 2: that there was like fraud going on. So I was 73 00:04:16,450 --> 00:04:19,090 Speaker 2: asked to evaluate him by an investor who was doing 74 00:04:19,090 --> 00:04:21,650 Speaker 2: a deal with him, and it was a friend, and 75 00:04:21,730 --> 00:04:23,650 Speaker 2: I said sure, I had no idea who he was. 76 00:04:24,010 --> 00:04:26,290 Speaker 2: He turns up in my doorstep in Berkeley, and we 77 00:04:26,410 --> 00:04:29,050 Speaker 2: spent a couple of hours together, and in a couple 78 00:04:29,050 --> 00:04:31,290 Speaker 2: of hours I realized I had this character who was 79 00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:33,770 Speaker 2: one he thought about the world in a very unusual way, 80 00:04:34,050 --> 00:04:37,930 Speaker 2: in a very persuasive way. But two he would possibly 81 00:04:37,970 --> 00:04:40,690 Speaker 2: give me access to several places I wanted access. One 82 00:04:40,850 --> 00:04:43,410 Speaker 2: was Jane Street in the world of high frequency trading, 83 00:04:43,450 --> 00:04:45,890 Speaker 2: because he'd spent three years at Jane Street and he'd 84 00:04:45,970 --> 00:04:47,850 Speaker 2: hired a bunch of people out of there, and they're 85 00:04:47,890 --> 00:04:50,890 Speaker 2: notoriously opaque and won't talk to journalists. So I thought, ah, 86 00:04:51,010 --> 00:04:54,410 Speaker 2: maybe I get to Jane Street throw him money in politics, 87 00:04:54,410 --> 00:04:56,450 Speaker 2: because he was handing out money left right and centered 88 00:04:56,450 --> 00:04:59,530 Speaker 2: to American politicians and the crypto world, which he was 89 00:04:59,650 --> 00:05:02,170 Speaker 2: very skeptical of, and so he wasn't a religionist, so 90 00:05:02,530 --> 00:05:05,130 Speaker 2: he wasn't defensive about it. So I remember just saying 91 00:05:05,130 --> 00:05:06,370 Speaker 2: to him, I don't know where this is going to 92 00:05:06,410 --> 00:05:09,010 Speaker 2: end up. Could I just hang out watch? You know? 93 00:05:09,410 --> 00:05:11,410 Speaker 2: He was the world's richest person under the age of 94 00:05:11,410 --> 00:05:13,770 Speaker 2: thirty according to Forest Magazine. It wasn't the big brain 95 00:05:13,810 --> 00:05:16,090 Speaker 2: wave on my part. It was kind of surprising he 96 00:05:16,170 --> 00:05:18,490 Speaker 2: let me do it, especially in view of what was 97 00:05:18,530 --> 00:05:21,610 Speaker 2: going to happen. So I just follow my nose. Yeah, 98 00:05:21,650 --> 00:05:23,770 Speaker 2: And my nose isn't like, oh, what's going to be 99 00:05:23,770 --> 00:05:27,170 Speaker 2: the next big story. My nose is more what's not dull, 100 00:05:28,090 --> 00:05:30,650 Speaker 2: and sometimes that works out, you know, sometimes that ends 101 00:05:30,730 --> 00:05:33,810 Speaker 2: up being what you should be paying attention to. So 102 00:05:34,410 --> 00:05:34,810 Speaker 2: as you. 103 00:05:35,530 --> 00:05:40,130 Speaker 1: Hung out with Sam Magmunfred Moore, you must have become 104 00:05:40,130 --> 00:05:44,050 Speaker 1: aware of this whole effective altruism thing seemed to play 105 00:05:44,050 --> 00:05:46,490 Speaker 1: a huge role in his life and how he thought. 106 00:05:46,530 --> 00:05:48,730 Speaker 2: You're exactly right. It kind of blew my mind. I'd 107 00:05:48,770 --> 00:05:52,290 Speaker 2: never heard of this, the idea that he had gone 108 00:05:52,410 --> 00:05:56,370 Speaker 2: to Wall Street with absolutely no interest in money, and 109 00:05:56,410 --> 00:05:59,610 Speaker 2: his parents would both professor law professors at Stanford. They're 110 00:05:59,650 --> 00:06:03,090 Speaker 2: like non materialist people. They don't care about stuff, they 111 00:06:03,130 --> 00:06:06,050 Speaker 2: don't care about money. You know, in another generation, he'd 112 00:06:06,050 --> 00:06:07,810 Speaker 2: have been like a high school physics teacher or maybe 113 00:06:08,090 --> 00:06:11,330 Speaker 2: a college professor. He was not the social type who 114 00:06:11,330 --> 00:06:14,210 Speaker 2: goes to Wall Street. And he'd forced himself into it 115 00:06:14,690 --> 00:06:18,090 Speaker 2: because he had discovered, before he'd discovered Wall Street, this 116 00:06:18,130 --> 00:06:20,650 Speaker 2: movement called effective altruism that just resonated with him. 117 00:06:20,730 --> 00:06:25,330 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was seduced into it by the philosophers. 118 00:06:24,570 --> 00:06:27,690 Speaker 2: And they proselytize and they actually will, mcgaskill told me. 119 00:06:27,730 --> 00:06:30,170 Speaker 2: He says, you know, it turned out that the ideal 120 00:06:30,250 --> 00:06:34,210 Speaker 2: market for these ideas were nerdy math science people at 121 00:06:34,250 --> 00:06:37,410 Speaker 2: American universities, people who were attracted to this kind of 122 00:06:37,730 --> 00:06:41,170 Speaker 2: quantitative solution of how to lead your life maximize the 123 00:06:41,210 --> 00:06:42,330 Speaker 2: number of lives you save. 124 00:06:42,570 --> 00:06:44,650 Speaker 1: I mean, just as an asside I've been writing a 125 00:06:44,690 --> 00:06:49,370 Speaker 1: column about the Trump administration's decision to cut foreign aid. 126 00:06:49,850 --> 00:06:52,570 Speaker 1: And it's slightly controversial exactly how much foreign aid they've cut, 127 00:06:52,650 --> 00:06:56,250 Speaker 1: exactly what they're cutting, and the conflicting statements, but plausibly 128 00:06:56,970 --> 00:07:00,290 Speaker 1: sensible independent analysts reckon that decision is going to kill 129 00:07:00,530 --> 00:07:04,330 Speaker 1: a million people a year yep. And it's mostly people 130 00:07:04,370 --> 00:07:05,970 Speaker 1: with HIV, although were there a few other things that 131 00:07:06,010 --> 00:07:09,770 Speaker 1: have some vaccinations, as tuberculosis. But you have HIV, you 132 00:07:09,850 --> 00:07:12,890 Speaker 1: have very effective medication. As long as you take the medication, 133 00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:16,130 Speaker 1: you'll find the moment you stop taking the medication, the 134 00:07:16,210 --> 00:07:18,010 Speaker 1: virus starts to come back, and pretty soon you're going 135 00:07:18,090 --> 00:07:22,450 Speaker 1: to die. And I'm writing about this, and somehow I 136 00:07:22,490 --> 00:07:28,330 Speaker 1: can't quite get as outraged about those million people as 137 00:07:28,370 --> 00:07:31,650 Speaker 1: if they were being rounded up and executed for being 138 00:07:31,650 --> 00:07:34,450 Speaker 1: a legal immigrants, or if they'd started some war that 139 00:07:34,490 --> 00:07:36,890 Speaker 1: was likely to kill a million people. It just feels 140 00:07:36,890 --> 00:07:38,490 Speaker 1: different somehow. It is dead right. 141 00:07:38,770 --> 00:07:40,970 Speaker 2: Part of the reason it feels different is it's a number, right, 142 00:07:41,410 --> 00:07:43,650 Speaker 2: especially the bigger than number. It just becomes a number. 143 00:07:43,850 --> 00:07:46,290 Speaker 2: You would feel much more raged if you saw just 144 00:07:46,330 --> 00:07:48,330 Speaker 2: a single child die. 145 00:07:48,490 --> 00:07:48,810 Speaker 1: Yeah. 146 00:07:48,930 --> 00:07:52,610 Speaker 2: We don't respond to the data. We respond to anecdote. 147 00:07:52,690 --> 00:07:55,250 Speaker 1: Yeah, unless you're Sam Bgmund Freed and unless you're Sam 148 00:07:55,290 --> 00:07:57,290 Speaker 1: Bakman Freed, which is one to the data. You know, 149 00:07:57,530 --> 00:07:59,850 Speaker 1: there's a jumble of my previous books. 150 00:07:59,730 --> 00:08:02,730 Speaker 2: That are sort of popping into my head when he 151 00:08:02,770 --> 00:08:06,090 Speaker 2: starts talking this way. One is Moneyball Oakland A has 152 00:08:06,090 --> 00:08:08,970 Speaker 2: succeeded because they ignored the anecdote and look to the data. 153 00:08:09,330 --> 00:08:12,570 Speaker 2: And two was the Ndoing Project. Yeah, Economy and Taversky 154 00:08:12,610 --> 00:08:15,450 Speaker 2: were all about the way our minds mislead us when 155 00:08:15,450 --> 00:08:18,810 Speaker 2: we trust our intuitive sense of things rather than the data. 156 00:08:19,490 --> 00:08:23,930 Speaker 2: It was interesting that this was wholly persuasive to this 157 00:08:24,330 --> 00:08:27,770 Speaker 2: kind of person and not just Sam Bagmfree, but there 158 00:08:27,850 --> 00:08:29,850 Speaker 2: was a whole crowd. I mean it was cult like. 159 00:08:30,250 --> 00:08:32,210 Speaker 2: As McCaskill said. They tend to be on kind of 160 00:08:32,250 --> 00:08:34,930 Speaker 2: on the spectrum. They tended to be male, they tend 161 00:08:35,010 --> 00:08:38,210 Speaker 2: to be math or physics. They tend to be socially awkward. 162 00:08:38,650 --> 00:08:43,090 Speaker 2: There were people who for whom emotion was a weak 163 00:08:43,250 --> 00:08:47,650 Speaker 2: guide to action. Whatever you or I feel that leads 164 00:08:47,730 --> 00:08:50,610 Speaker 2: us to do things, they didn't feel so much, but 165 00:08:50,690 --> 00:08:55,730 Speaker 2: they could talk themselves into using logic and numbers as 166 00:08:55,890 --> 00:08:58,090 Speaker 2: a guide to action in the way that emotion is 167 00:08:58,130 --> 00:08:59,370 Speaker 2: a guide to action for us. 168 00:08:59,570 --> 00:09:01,810 Speaker 1: Are the numbers a better guide to action than emotions. 169 00:09:02,210 --> 00:09:04,410 Speaker 2: Depends on what you're doing. Yeah, I mean, let's go 170 00:09:04,450 --> 00:09:07,850 Speaker 2: back to the moneyball case. Most of the time in baseball, 171 00:09:08,410 --> 00:09:11,850 Speaker 2: the statistics information that you are way better off than 172 00:09:11,890 --> 00:09:14,810 Speaker 2: guided by than your nose. Every now and then that's 173 00:09:14,850 --> 00:09:17,610 Speaker 2: not true. But most of the time in life you 174 00:09:17,650 --> 00:09:20,570 Speaker 2: don't really have the numbers, like how you're going to 175 00:09:20,610 --> 00:09:22,610 Speaker 2: decide who you're gonna marry, or where you're gonna live, 176 00:09:22,890 --> 00:09:24,490 Speaker 2: or even where you're gonna go to college, or even 177 00:09:24,530 --> 00:09:26,810 Speaker 2: where you're gonna have dinner tonight. How do you reduce 178 00:09:26,890 --> 00:09:29,850 Speaker 2: that to a statistical problem. We are kind of forced 179 00:09:30,090 --> 00:09:33,810 Speaker 2: by the dearth of statistical information to constantly rely on 180 00:09:33,850 --> 00:09:36,530 Speaker 2: our intuitive judgment, and so that it leaves us kind 181 00:09:36,530 --> 00:09:39,330 Speaker 2: of sleepy to the possibility that there is some statistical 182 00:09:39,330 --> 00:09:42,170 Speaker 2: information that could inform our judgment. Often when there is, 183 00:09:42,170 --> 00:09:44,730 Speaker 2: though yes, I think it is better, Connomin and Traversky 184 00:09:44,810 --> 00:09:48,050 Speaker 2: showed just it's amazing how even when you're looking at 185 00:09:48,450 --> 00:09:51,010 Speaker 2: people we would all think of that as experts doctors 186 00:09:51,370 --> 00:09:55,530 Speaker 2: that algorithms outperform the experts when rendering diagnoses. That kind 187 00:09:55,570 --> 00:09:55,890 Speaker 2: of thing. 188 00:09:56,250 --> 00:09:59,490 Speaker 1: One of the things that struck me exploring The story 189 00:09:59,530 --> 00:10:02,850 Speaker 1: for Cause Details was when effective altruism took this what 190 00:10:02,930 --> 00:10:04,730 Speaker 1: seems to be a little bit of a weird turn. 191 00:10:05,930 --> 00:10:07,930 Speaker 1: So on the one hand, you you've got the people 192 00:10:07,930 --> 00:10:10,330 Speaker 1: who are like, Okay, I've got one thousand dollars and 193 00:10:10,370 --> 00:10:12,290 Speaker 1: i want to save the maximum number of lives. They 194 00:10:12,290 --> 00:10:15,730 Speaker 1: crunch the numbers and they go, yeah, it's probably bed 195 00:10:15,770 --> 00:10:19,570 Speaker 1: nets impregnated with anti mosquit typesticides. If you give it, 196 00:10:19,610 --> 00:10:20,930 Speaker 1: you give out a lot of bed nets, you could 197 00:10:20,930 --> 00:10:23,850 Speaker 1: save a life for whatever one thousand dollars, three thousand dollars. 198 00:10:23,930 --> 00:10:27,330 Speaker 1: So it's cheap. It's cheap, and that's better than maybe 199 00:10:27,330 --> 00:10:30,970 Speaker 1: spending the money on vaccinations, even though vaccinations are good 200 00:10:31,330 --> 00:10:34,770 Speaker 1: and vaccinations are better than spending the money on work 201 00:10:34,850 --> 00:10:38,170 Speaker 1: to improve governance. And improve governance is better than giving 202 00:10:38,170 --> 00:10:40,370 Speaker 1: it to a donkey sanctuary because all of the donkeys 203 00:10:40,410 --> 00:10:42,810 Speaker 1: are living in luxury. They're all fine. So that all 204 00:10:42,850 --> 00:10:45,130 Speaker 1: makes sense up to that point. You go the effective 205 00:10:45,130 --> 00:10:47,650 Speaker 1: altruisms at on it. I'm with this is great. I'm 206 00:10:47,650 --> 00:10:49,570 Speaker 1: with them too, so I feel the same way. I'm 207 00:10:49,570 --> 00:10:50,450 Speaker 1: with them too. I've makes it. 208 00:10:50,490 --> 00:10:52,330 Speaker 2: They just make me at that point, they just make 209 00:10:52,370 --> 00:10:55,410 Speaker 2: me feel guilty for how I'm living my life. 210 00:10:54,890 --> 00:10:59,970 Speaker 1: And then they start having these conversations like, well, you know, 211 00:11:00,250 --> 00:11:02,250 Speaker 1: there could be a lot of people in the world 212 00:11:02,330 --> 00:11:04,490 Speaker 1: in the future. The future could go on for a 213 00:11:04,570 --> 00:11:07,250 Speaker 1: very long time. We could be talking about trillions of people. 214 00:11:07,450 --> 00:11:10,690 Speaker 1: We could be talking about intergalactic ciations or human civilization 215 00:11:10,810 --> 00:11:14,810 Speaker 1: lasting a million years. But maybe AI ruins all that. 216 00:11:15,530 --> 00:11:19,210 Speaker 1: So maybe if we have a workshop about AI safety, 217 00:11:19,530 --> 00:11:22,170 Speaker 1: maybe there's only a one in a billion chance that 218 00:11:22,210 --> 00:11:24,130 Speaker 1: it will do anything. But if it does something, it 219 00:11:24,130 --> 00:11:26,770 Speaker 1: could save a trillion lives. So a one and a 220 00:11:26,770 --> 00:11:30,090 Speaker 1: billion chance of saving a trillion lives, that's a thousand lives. Right, 221 00:11:30,250 --> 00:11:32,730 Speaker 1: that's really good, and so it's totally worth spending fifty 222 00:11:32,730 --> 00:11:35,810 Speaker 1: thousand dollars on our AI workshop. At which point you 223 00:11:35,810 --> 00:11:39,290 Speaker 1: start like, where did it go wrong? Or are they right? 224 00:11:39,570 --> 00:11:42,610 Speaker 2: Am I wrong? So I exactly say a feeling it 225 00:11:42,690 --> 00:11:46,290 Speaker 2: jumped the shark Around twenty and twelve and Toby Ord 226 00:11:46,290 --> 00:11:49,930 Speaker 2: writes this book about existential risk where he's putting numbers 227 00:11:50,290 --> 00:11:53,210 Speaker 2: on the likelihood of various events wiping out humanity, and 228 00:11:53,250 --> 00:11:57,370 Speaker 2: it's AI and pandemics and meteor strikes and nuclear war 229 00:11:57,450 --> 00:11:59,890 Speaker 2: and so on and so forth. Very hard to put 230 00:11:59,970 --> 00:12:01,730 Speaker 2: numbers on that, but of course you can't do the 231 00:12:01,770 --> 00:12:04,930 Speaker 2: calculations about the numbers, so they just accept roughly good numbers, 232 00:12:05,050 --> 00:12:06,450 Speaker 2: and it's just not at all clear to me the 233 00:12:06,530 --> 00:12:10,010 Speaker 2: numbers are okay at all. The math become much shakier. 234 00:12:10,530 --> 00:12:14,210 Speaker 2: That's one thing that happens. The number has become much bigger. 235 00:12:14,770 --> 00:12:17,490 Speaker 2: You're not just talking about saving lives in Africa right now, 236 00:12:18,130 --> 00:12:22,970 Speaker 2: You're talking about all future humanity and infinite people. And 237 00:12:23,050 --> 00:12:26,570 Speaker 2: so the sums of money required to address these problems 238 00:12:26,890 --> 00:12:30,610 Speaker 2: also becomes much much bigger. One thousand dollars will be 239 00:12:30,730 --> 00:12:34,250 Speaker 2: useful in Africa right now. One thousand dollars right now 240 00:12:34,290 --> 00:12:37,530 Speaker 2: to prevent AI from eating us all one day is nothing. 241 00:12:38,010 --> 00:12:39,970 Speaker 2: Sam Begun Freed sits down and does a back of 242 00:12:40,010 --> 00:12:42,370 Speaker 2: the envelope calculation. He thinks he needs at least, you know, 243 00:12:42,410 --> 00:12:44,450 Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollars to make a dent in this 244 00:12:44,570 --> 00:12:46,810 Speaker 2: or that problem. So all of a sudden, it gets 245 00:12:46,930 --> 00:12:52,410 Speaker 2: very grandiose, and it's completely even if they were never 246 00:12:53,570 --> 00:12:58,170 Speaker 2: entirely interested in the emotional residence of saving the life 247 00:12:58,210 --> 00:13:01,130 Speaker 2: of a small child in Africa today, there was at 248 00:13:01,210 --> 00:13:04,890 Speaker 2: least some emotional content there, and all of a sudden 249 00:13:04,930 --> 00:13:09,970 Speaker 2: it vanishes. It's purely an abstract math problem. And then, 250 00:13:10,090 --> 00:13:14,090 Speaker 2: of course, as you just said, what can't you justify 251 00:13:14,250 --> 00:13:15,930 Speaker 2: when the numbers are that big, the number of people 252 00:13:15,930 --> 00:13:17,930 Speaker 2: you're going to save that big, what can't you justify 253 00:13:18,090 --> 00:13:22,210 Speaker 2: doing to attack the problem? It seems perfectly rational to 254 00:13:22,250 --> 00:13:23,610 Speaker 2: do whatever you need to do to make one hundred 255 00:13:23,650 --> 00:13:27,410 Speaker 2: billion dollars to eliminate or at least defray this existential risk. 256 00:13:27,530 --> 00:13:29,410 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the end of the world. We're talking 257 00:13:29,410 --> 00:13:31,450 Speaker 1: about the end of human civilization. You just be able 258 00:13:31,490 --> 00:13:32,770 Speaker 1: to cut some coolness at that point. 259 00:13:32,930 --> 00:13:35,930 Speaker 2: So what you're doing, also, if you think about it, 260 00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:39,330 Speaker 2: is you're puffing yourself up. You're a superhero. Now you're 261 00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:42,850 Speaker 2: now going to save humanity. You may only be increasing 262 00:13:42,890 --> 00:13:46,130 Speaker 2: the odds that humanity is saved by a few percentile, 263 00:13:46,410 --> 00:13:49,610 Speaker 2: but nevertheless you're in the realm of saving humanity. So 264 00:13:49,730 --> 00:13:51,890 Speaker 2: it creates a grandiosity to the whole thing. 265 00:13:52,090 --> 00:13:54,490 Speaker 1: And well, as I understand it, the sound bragmue of 266 00:13:54,490 --> 00:13:56,810 Speaker 1: people have said it, if I'm giving myself a five 267 00:13:56,810 --> 00:13:59,770 Speaker 1: percent chance of saving the world, that I'm five percent 268 00:13:59,770 --> 00:14:00,290 Speaker 1: of Superman. 269 00:14:00,410 --> 00:14:03,650 Speaker 2: Right there we go. So this is how he was 270 00:14:03,690 --> 00:14:05,890 Speaker 2: thinking when I first met him, and I thought it 271 00:14:05,930 --> 00:14:09,010 Speaker 2: was bonkers, but I thought it was interesting. It's not wrong, 272 00:14:09,410 --> 00:14:12,770 Speaker 2: you know, it's not obviously wrong. It's probably obviously right 273 00:14:13,210 --> 00:14:15,850 Speaker 2: that there are these extinction level events that could happen. 274 00:14:16,410 --> 00:14:19,250 Speaker 2: The question is, like, is it barkers think you could 275 00:14:19,250 --> 00:14:22,490 Speaker 2: do much about them? There's something that goes on when 276 00:14:22,530 --> 00:14:27,490 Speaker 2: you're doing things that have such a remote probability of 277 00:14:27,530 --> 00:14:31,490 Speaker 2: having any effect. It's very different from buying a bed 278 00:14:31,530 --> 00:14:34,570 Speaker 2: net and saving a kid. The degree of uncertainly gets 279 00:14:34,570 --> 00:14:37,570 Speaker 2: so high. And so when you look at how what 280 00:14:37,810 --> 00:14:41,210 Speaker 2: happen to the EA movement around Sam. They had their 281 00:14:41,290 --> 00:14:44,210 Speaker 2: arguments about this, but the people who move with Sam 282 00:14:44,250 --> 00:14:47,930 Speaker 2: all bought into you know, we're saving humanity, and they 283 00:14:48,050 --> 00:14:51,530 Speaker 2: left behind a collection of original EA's who sort of 284 00:14:51,610 --> 00:14:54,730 Speaker 2: disapproved and who continued to, you know, buy bed nets 285 00:14:54,730 --> 00:14:55,930 Speaker 2: for kids in Africa. 286 00:14:56,010 --> 00:14:59,690 Speaker 1: Do you think it is fair to blame effective altruism 287 00:15:00,130 --> 00:15:03,810 Speaker 1: for what Sam Maguinfree did and you know, the fraud 288 00:15:03,970 --> 00:15:06,250 Speaker 1: and him going to prison and all of that. To 289 00:15:06,250 --> 00:15:08,610 Speaker 1: what extent can you track it all back to. 290 00:15:08,570 --> 00:15:11,170 Speaker 2: Effective Can we assign fractional blame? 291 00:15:11,410 --> 00:15:12,970 Speaker 1: I think that's totally in the spirit. 292 00:15:12,690 --> 00:15:14,770 Speaker 2: Of the heart. Let's in the spirit of Sam Bankman Freed, 293 00:15:14,810 --> 00:15:17,330 Speaker 2: let's do a little shares of blame. So I would say, 294 00:15:17,530 --> 00:15:20,770 Speaker 2: the little sliver of blame that effective algorism gets is 295 00:15:20,810 --> 00:15:24,570 Speaker 2: in how it was sold to the Sam Bankman Freeds 296 00:15:24,610 --> 00:15:28,690 Speaker 2: of the world. You are this nerd with a high 297 00:15:28,730 --> 00:15:31,570 Speaker 2: sense of your own self importance, but it hasn't been 298 00:15:31,570 --> 00:15:35,370 Speaker 2: appreciated by the world who is coming of age in 299 00:15:35,410 --> 00:15:38,930 Speaker 2: a world where very weirdly, you can get rich very 300 00:15:39,010 --> 00:15:41,850 Speaker 2: quickly because your particular gifts are all of a sudden 301 00:15:41,890 --> 00:15:45,250 Speaker 2: in demand at Jane Street and Hudson River Trading and 302 00:15:45,370 --> 00:15:49,530 Speaker 2: Citadel and all these quantitative trading shops and also tech firms. 303 00:15:49,730 --> 00:15:53,010 Speaker 2: So all of a sudden, you're the most monetizable twenty 304 00:15:53,050 --> 00:15:56,210 Speaker 2: two year old on the planet, maybe a professional athlete. 305 00:15:56,450 --> 00:16:00,050 Speaker 2: And if you unleash your money making skills for the 306 00:16:00,090 --> 00:16:03,490 Speaker 2: good of this movement, you're a superhero. They're given a 307 00:16:03,570 --> 00:16:08,010 Speaker 2: kind of license to behave in unorthodox ways. 308 00:16:08,290 --> 00:16:11,730 Speaker 1: Maybe it never could to will that somebody would, Oh, well, 309 00:16:11,770 --> 00:16:14,010 Speaker 1: I guess I could commit a massive fraud and as 310 00:16:14,050 --> 00:16:16,370 Speaker 1: long as I saved the planet, that's fine. I mean, 311 00:16:16,810 --> 00:16:19,010 Speaker 1: possibly never oc could to the philosophers that anybody would 312 00:16:19,010 --> 00:16:19,570 Speaker 1: think to do that. 313 00:16:19,770 --> 00:16:22,050 Speaker 2: It's possible. That's a funny thing you say that. I 314 00:16:22,370 --> 00:16:26,090 Speaker 2: think that's possible. So I think if Sam Beginfree is 315 00:16:26,170 --> 00:16:29,530 Speaker 2: a creature of anything. Effect of altruism is really important, 316 00:16:29,850 --> 00:16:32,530 Speaker 2: but so is Jane Street. The high frequency trading world, 317 00:16:32,770 --> 00:16:35,290 Speaker 2: they live to game systems. You're in there to figure 318 00:16:35,290 --> 00:16:37,890 Speaker 2: out how to game markets, and people who are really 319 00:16:37,930 --> 00:16:39,890 Speaker 2: good at playing the game are the people who win. 320 00:16:40,050 --> 00:16:42,250 Speaker 2: And Sam was really good at playing the game. Obviously 321 00:16:42,250 --> 00:16:45,050 Speaker 2: you're not supposed to break the law, but it puts 322 00:16:45,090 --> 00:16:47,130 Speaker 2: you in a certain frame of mind when all you're 323 00:16:47,170 --> 00:16:49,490 Speaker 2: doing is gaming markets day after day after day, you're 324 00:16:49,530 --> 00:16:52,770 Speaker 2: looking for little edges, and if I were assign another 325 00:16:52,810 --> 00:16:55,930 Speaker 2: slipper of blame, kind of the grown up world of finance. 326 00:16:56,370 --> 00:16:59,730 Speaker 2: It was obvious to anybody who walked into the FTX 327 00:17:00,170 --> 00:17:03,850 Speaker 2: that there was a basic conflict of interest. He had 328 00:17:03,890 --> 00:17:07,730 Speaker 2: this private trading firm that he'd started first out of 329 00:17:07,730 --> 00:17:11,850 Speaker 2: which grew this public crypto exchange, and that his private 330 00:17:11,930 --> 00:17:14,770 Speaker 2: trading from traded on the crypto exchange and was in 331 00:17:14,770 --> 00:17:17,210 Speaker 2: a little hut next door to it in the Bahamas. 332 00:17:17,770 --> 00:17:21,530 Speaker 2: So some blame there, but of course also blame to Sam. 333 00:17:21,650 --> 00:17:23,490 Speaker 2: What isn't in Sam that leads him to do this. 334 00:17:24,370 --> 00:17:26,810 Speaker 2: You know, he danced his way out of lots of 335 00:17:26,810 --> 00:17:29,330 Speaker 2: problems before. I think he thought he was smart, so 336 00:17:29,370 --> 00:17:32,610 Speaker 2: smart that he could kind of figure this out. And 337 00:17:32,610 --> 00:17:35,370 Speaker 2: in fairness to him, I think he was overwhelmed. If 338 00:17:35,370 --> 00:17:38,090 Speaker 2: you'd seen their business, your first reaction would be this 339 00:17:38,170 --> 00:17:41,450 Speaker 2: is pure chaos. There's no organization chart. No one knows 340 00:17:41,450 --> 00:17:44,170 Speaker 2: who the job actually is of The corporate psychiatrist is 341 00:17:44,210 --> 00:17:46,090 Speaker 2: the person who knows the most about the business because 342 00:17:46,090 --> 00:17:48,050 Speaker 2: he's the only one everybody talks to. You know, it's 343 00:17:48,090 --> 00:17:50,850 Speaker 2: like one thing like that after another. What it didn't 344 00:17:50,890 --> 00:17:53,050 Speaker 2: feel like and still doesn't feel like to me, And 345 00:17:53,130 --> 00:17:54,690 Speaker 2: I get in trouble when I say things like this 346 00:17:55,490 --> 00:17:59,770 Speaker 2: is malice. What he wasn't and isn't is like this 347 00:18:01,010 --> 00:18:04,490 Speaker 2: natural crook. He doesn't have cruelty in him. Oddly, he 348 00:18:04,490 --> 00:18:06,770 Speaker 2: doesn't have a lot of dishonesty in him. He has some, 349 00:18:07,530 --> 00:18:11,210 Speaker 2: but up to the moment that it's discovered that he 350 00:18:11,250 --> 00:18:12,850 Speaker 2: has the money in the wrong place, that he's taking 351 00:18:13,090 --> 00:18:14,850 Speaker 2: used as customers' money to do all kinds of things 352 00:18:14,890 --> 00:18:17,770 Speaker 2: he didn't have permission to do. There's not really a 353 00:18:17,810 --> 00:18:22,290 Speaker 2: trace in Sam Bankman's Freed's life of criminal behavior or 354 00:18:22,290 --> 00:18:25,210 Speaker 2: corrupt behavior. Didn't cheat on tests, didn't cheat a golf, 355 00:18:25,290 --> 00:18:27,730 Speaker 2: never played golf. You know, you go back to his childhood, 356 00:18:27,730 --> 00:18:30,650 Speaker 2: there's no sign of anything like this, and so it's 357 00:18:30,650 --> 00:18:33,250 Speaker 2: not like this is who he is. It makes it 358 00:18:33,290 --> 00:18:34,490 Speaker 2: even a weirder event. 359 00:18:34,890 --> 00:18:36,690 Speaker 1: Do you think he was a kind personal? Is a 360 00:18:36,730 --> 00:18:37,330 Speaker 1: kind person? 361 00:18:37,730 --> 00:18:43,290 Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, you know, qualify it. But he paved 362 00:18:43,410 --> 00:18:47,130 Speaker 2: very well to the little people around him who helped him. 363 00:18:47,570 --> 00:18:51,770 Speaker 2: He would get worked up and scream every now and then. 364 00:18:52,130 --> 00:18:54,570 Speaker 2: But I think because he was on the receiving end 365 00:18:54,610 --> 00:18:57,690 Speaker 2: of it when he was a kid a lot. I 366 00:18:57,690 --> 00:19:01,170 Speaker 2: think he was highly sensitive to suffering. I think suffering 367 00:19:01,250 --> 00:19:05,250 Speaker 2: bothered him. And he was also highly averse to conflict, 368 00:19:05,890 --> 00:19:08,650 Speaker 2: Like he was really uncomfortable getting in a conflict. He'd 369 00:19:08,650 --> 00:19:10,650 Speaker 2: going high rather than fight. Every now and then he 370 00:19:10,730 --> 00:19:13,410 Speaker 2: get upset and everybody around him get scared. But it 371 00:19:13,450 --> 00:19:15,490 Speaker 2: was very private. It was like watching a little volcano 372 00:19:15,570 --> 00:19:18,250 Speaker 2: go off. So yeah, I think he's basically clan person. 373 00:19:18,330 --> 00:19:21,050 Speaker 2: And to this day, I'm still in touch with him. 374 00:19:21,130 --> 00:19:24,090 Speaker 2: He writes a prison diary and he sends it to me. 375 00:19:24,650 --> 00:19:28,170 Speaker 2: He's pretty careful about his interactions with other people. He's 376 00:19:28,170 --> 00:19:30,530 Speaker 2: in no conflict. People kind of like him because he 377 00:19:30,610 --> 00:19:32,850 Speaker 2: kind of watches out for them a bit. I mean, 378 00:19:32,890 --> 00:19:35,690 Speaker 2: we did it was really wrong, but when you know 379 00:19:35,770 --> 00:19:37,610 Speaker 2: this personality, it's even stranger. 380 00:19:37,650 --> 00:19:42,730 Speaker 1: He did it interesting, very interesting. Well, Michael, stay with us. 381 00:19:43,090 --> 00:19:45,610 Speaker 1: I'm going to give you questions from our loyal listeners, 382 00:19:45,690 --> 00:19:49,010 Speaker 1: particularly on the subjects of kindness and altruism, and we 383 00:19:49,050 --> 00:20:00,330 Speaker 1: shall hear them after the break. We're back. I'm talking 384 00:20:00,370 --> 00:20:03,410 Speaker 1: to Michael Lewis, the author of Going Infinite, The Rise 385 00:20:03,490 --> 00:20:06,770 Speaker 1: and Fall of a New Tycoon, which tells the story 386 00:20:06,770 --> 00:20:11,370 Speaker 1: of Sam Bankmin Freed, the world's most infamous effective altruists. 387 00:20:11,410 --> 00:20:14,450 Speaker 1: And Michael, we've asked our listeners to send in their 388 00:20:14,930 --> 00:20:18,010 Speaker 1: questions about altruism. Are you going for answering a few? 389 00:20:18,490 --> 00:20:18,850 Speaker 2: Sure? 390 00:20:19,410 --> 00:20:22,450 Speaker 1: So here's one from I think from Nocum Apologies if 391 00:20:22,450 --> 00:20:25,850 Speaker 1: I've mispronounced your name, that they write as an admirer 392 00:20:25,890 --> 00:20:28,930 Speaker 1: of mister Lewis's books since Liar's Poker. When I heard 393 00:20:28,930 --> 00:20:32,010 Speaker 1: he was answering questions about altruism, I had to ask this. 394 00:20:32,970 --> 00:20:35,690 Speaker 1: According to the latest data I could find, the most 395 00:20:35,730 --> 00:20:39,170 Speaker 1: important cause for effective altruists, after poverty and health, is 396 00:20:39,370 --> 00:20:43,330 Speaker 1: AI risk. There are real challenges to the adoption of AI, 397 00:20:43,450 --> 00:20:45,090 Speaker 1: but to put it so high on the list of 398 00:20:45,170 --> 00:20:49,290 Speaker 1: causes to donate to seems misguided at best. Can you 399 00:20:49,330 --> 00:20:54,130 Speaker 1: explain how AI overtook such obvious harms as global warming 400 00:20:54,690 --> 00:20:57,170 Speaker 1: or the public benefits of the spread of free markets, 401 00:20:57,210 --> 00:21:00,490 Speaker 1: free speech, or democracy as the greatest good and effective 402 00:21:00,530 --> 00:21:04,530 Speaker 1: altruists can do all the best, No, com This is. 403 00:21:04,450 --> 00:21:07,970 Speaker 2: One of those really great questions I probably can't answer satisfactorily, 404 00:21:07,970 --> 00:21:10,930 Speaker 2: but it is a great question. I think in the 405 00:21:10,970 --> 00:21:13,330 Speaker 2: minds of Sam bagman Freedom and the people around him, 406 00:21:13,890 --> 00:21:17,650 Speaker 2: they thought of these existential risks in two ways. How 407 00:21:17,690 --> 00:21:20,650 Speaker 2: salient are they? How likely are they they cause problems 408 00:21:20,770 --> 00:21:24,050 Speaker 2: to actually happen? And how tractable are they? What can 409 00:21:24,090 --> 00:21:28,290 Speaker 2: we actually do about this? And in Sam bankman Fried's 410 00:21:28,290 --> 00:21:31,570 Speaker 2: mind when he did that calculation, it wasn't AI that 411 00:21:31,650 --> 00:21:34,530 Speaker 2: bubbled to the surface. It was pandemics. He threw much 412 00:21:34,570 --> 00:21:37,850 Speaker 2: more money into pandemic prevention than AI. Even though he 413 00:21:37,890 --> 00:21:40,490 Speaker 2: thought AI was the greater risk. He couldn't figure out 414 00:21:40,490 --> 00:21:41,210 Speaker 2: what to do about it. 415 00:21:41,250 --> 00:21:43,610 Speaker 1: Would this had been pre COVID When he was throwing 416 00:21:43,610 --> 00:21:45,290 Speaker 1: money into pandemic prevention, it. 417 00:21:45,170 --> 00:21:46,970 Speaker 2: Was pre COVID. When he was thinking about it and 418 00:21:47,050 --> 00:21:48,810 Speaker 2: when he started to have real money we were in 419 00:21:48,850 --> 00:21:50,490 Speaker 2: the thick of COVID. It was like, if a really 420 00:21:50,570 --> 00:21:53,050 Speaker 2: even more deadly one comes along, how can we be 421 00:21:53,130 --> 00:21:56,530 Speaker 2: better defending ourselves against it or detecting it and preventing 422 00:21:56,570 --> 00:21:58,730 Speaker 2: in the first place. That kind of thing the one 423 00:21:58,810 --> 00:22:03,690 Speaker 2: move he made in AI prevention other than funding people 424 00:22:03,930 --> 00:22:06,570 Speaker 2: with small sums of money who had interesting ideas, but 425 00:22:06,610 --> 00:22:08,970 Speaker 2: he bought a big chunk of anthropic which was the 426 00:22:09,290 --> 00:22:12,410 Speaker 2: kind of Salonda refuse for open AI. People who thought 427 00:22:12,410 --> 00:22:15,170 Speaker 2: that open AI wasn't paying enough attention to the risks 428 00:22:15,810 --> 00:22:18,970 Speaker 2: and that fine enough end up being worth many, many 429 00:22:18,970 --> 00:22:22,170 Speaker 2: billions of dollars to his creditors. So why were they 430 00:22:22,250 --> 00:22:27,890 Speaker 2: so alive to AI as an existential risk? Because your 431 00:22:28,010 --> 00:22:30,770 Speaker 2: question is right, it's not obvious. It's not obvious to me. 432 00:22:31,050 --> 00:22:33,530 Speaker 1: Let me flip it around and say, why are they 433 00:22:33,570 --> 00:22:36,930 Speaker 1: not worried about climate change as an existential risk? For example? 434 00:22:37,010 --> 00:22:38,930 Speaker 2: The answer to that is they think that climate change, 435 00:22:38,930 --> 00:22:40,530 Speaker 2: no matter how bad it gets, they'll still be human 436 00:22:40,570 --> 00:22:41,130 Speaker 2: beings alive. 437 00:22:41,490 --> 00:22:43,490 Speaker 1: Yeah, and they're probably right, Yeah, I mean, it's not 438 00:22:43,530 --> 00:22:45,450 Speaker 1: going to turn the earth into venus right, it could 439 00:22:45,450 --> 00:22:48,610 Speaker 1: make things really uncomfortable. We could really regret we didn't 440 00:22:48,650 --> 00:22:52,170 Speaker 1: do more earlier. But the idea that it ends the 441 00:22:52,250 --> 00:22:53,970 Speaker 1: human race seems unlikely. 442 00:22:54,130 --> 00:22:54,250 Speaker 2: Yea. 443 00:22:54,570 --> 00:22:57,130 Speaker 1: So they're looking for things that will actually, like end it, 444 00:22:57,210 --> 00:23:00,730 Speaker 1: absolutely end human civilization, and there, I guess you're looking 445 00:23:00,730 --> 00:23:03,410 Speaker 1: at nuclear weapons and AI are more plausible. 446 00:23:03,410 --> 00:23:06,570 Speaker 2: Maybe that's right. AI had the capacity to do the 447 00:23:06,650 --> 00:23:10,330 Speaker 2: job completely in a way even pandemic wouldn't. I don't 448 00:23:10,330 --> 00:23:13,290 Speaker 2: even think nuclear weapons are that plausible. So they could 449 00:23:13,330 --> 00:23:15,890 Speaker 2: play out a scenario where they were no longer people 450 00:23:15,890 --> 00:23:16,570 Speaker 2: because of AI. 451 00:23:16,690 --> 00:23:19,250 Speaker 1: It throws a light on this the difference between a 452 00:23:19,250 --> 00:23:21,330 Speaker 1: long term, effective altruist and the rest of us. The 453 00:23:21,330 --> 00:23:22,810 Speaker 1: rest of us would go, hey, if there was a 454 00:23:22,890 --> 00:23:25,890 Speaker 1: nuclear war and ninety nine percent of the human race 455 00:23:26,210 --> 00:23:29,570 Speaker 1: was killed and the rest of us were reduced to 456 00:23:29,610 --> 00:23:31,770 Speaker 1: the Stone Age and had to build from scratch, that 457 00:23:31,930 --> 00:23:35,890 Speaker 1: sounds incredibly bad. Whereas for an effective altruist, they're like, well, 458 00:23:35,930 --> 00:23:37,650 Speaker 1: if you think really long term, yeah, and on a 459 00:23:37,730 --> 00:23:39,810 Speaker 1: two million year time horizon, that's right. It's not the 460 00:23:39,810 --> 00:23:40,250 Speaker 1: worst thing. 461 00:23:40,450 --> 00:23:42,930 Speaker 2: It just shows you where you can go when you're 462 00:23:43,050 --> 00:23:47,730 Speaker 2: untethered from normal human feeling and convention. That's the real 463 00:23:47,770 --> 00:23:50,450 Speaker 2: thing about the effect of altrus is that at bottom, 464 00:23:50,570 --> 00:23:53,490 Speaker 2: it's a status movement. It's a group of people who 465 00:23:53,530 --> 00:23:58,410 Speaker 2: feel underappreciated, slightly ostracized, who know in some ways they're 466 00:23:58,450 --> 00:24:01,970 Speaker 2: smarter than their peers. Essentially, the starting point is everybody 467 00:24:01,970 --> 00:24:04,050 Speaker 2: else is stupid, they don't know, and it takes them 468 00:24:04,050 --> 00:24:04,930 Speaker 2: to weird places. 469 00:24:05,250 --> 00:24:08,330 Speaker 1: Let me throw in a thought from listener, Matt. I'm 470 00:24:08,330 --> 00:24:10,570 Speaker 1: going to paraphrase, but it's relevant, I think to what 471 00:24:10,650 --> 00:24:13,650 Speaker 1: you're just saying, Michael. So, Matt conjures up the idea 472 00:24:13,970 --> 00:24:18,610 Speaker 1: that people who eat meat are in a way very 473 00:24:18,650 --> 00:24:23,690 Speaker 1: good for pigs and chickens and cows, in. 474 00:24:23,610 --> 00:24:25,450 Speaker 2: The same way that people who want ducks are very 475 00:24:25,450 --> 00:24:29,050 Speaker 2: good for ducks because you created the need for these 476 00:24:29,090 --> 00:24:30,650 Speaker 2: animals to exist. Yeah. 477 00:24:30,690 --> 00:24:32,770 Speaker 1: You know, if a Martian came down and looked and said, 478 00:24:32,810 --> 00:24:36,690 Speaker 1: you know, what are the dominant species on Earth, then 479 00:24:36,730 --> 00:24:38,690 Speaker 1: there's a good case that some of the dominant species 480 00:24:38,770 --> 00:24:41,410 Speaker 1: are the species that humans eat. And the reason they're 481 00:24:41,450 --> 00:24:44,210 Speaker 1: dominant there are so many of them have taken over 482 00:24:44,250 --> 00:24:48,690 Speaker 1: all these different ecosystems is because that's what the humans want. Anyway, 483 00:24:48,730 --> 00:24:53,690 Speaker 1: he draws a parallel between that perspective and effective altruism. 484 00:24:54,330 --> 00:24:56,530 Speaker 1: Is it too harsh to think of effective altruists as 485 00:24:56,570 --> 00:25:01,570 Speaker 1: benign butchers ready to sacrifice real people today for the 486 00:25:01,610 --> 00:25:04,930 Speaker 1: sake of a notional gain to humankind over eons. So 487 00:25:04,970 --> 00:25:07,570 Speaker 1: there's no end to the suffering you can tolerate today 488 00:25:07,650 --> 00:25:10,650 Speaker 1: as long as your maximized using the quantity of humanity 489 00:25:10,690 --> 00:25:11,370 Speaker 1: in the long run. 490 00:25:11,570 --> 00:25:13,730 Speaker 2: I'd be willing to play this game with him, Except 491 00:25:13,770 --> 00:25:16,410 Speaker 2: the effect of altruismselves do not acknowledge they were willing 492 00:25:16,410 --> 00:25:19,770 Speaker 2: to inflict suffering on people today. They just thought they 493 00:25:19,810 --> 00:25:22,250 Speaker 2: were shifting their attention from people to day to people 494 00:25:22,250 --> 00:25:24,690 Speaker 2: in the future. They were shifting their neglect, if you 495 00:25:24,730 --> 00:25:27,170 Speaker 2: want to think about it the other way. So they 496 00:25:27,210 --> 00:25:32,890 Speaker 2: weren't actively thinking of themselves as inflicting suffering on present humans, 497 00:25:33,250 --> 00:25:36,450 Speaker 2: although Sam did. Although Sam did, although the logic of 498 00:25:36,450 --> 00:25:40,010 Speaker 2: their argument would lead them to do it if necessary. 499 00:25:40,170 --> 00:25:44,650 Speaker 1: Yes, interesting question for Victor. Victor asks why is no 500 00:25:44,730 --> 00:25:48,130 Speaker 1: one talking about why we need altruism in the first place? 501 00:25:48,170 --> 00:25:50,770 Speaker 1: What are we doing wrong as societies that some people 502 00:25:50,850 --> 00:25:54,930 Speaker 1: are left behind and there's a need for altruism. I 503 00:25:54,970 --> 00:25:57,010 Speaker 1: suppose this gets to the idea of if you had 504 00:25:57,010 --> 00:25:59,450 Speaker 1: a benign government, or if you had the right rules 505 00:25:59,570 --> 00:26:03,170 Speaker 1: or the invisible hand of Adam Smith. But if we 506 00:26:03,210 --> 00:26:06,170 Speaker 1: somehow organize society better, no one would have to be 507 00:26:06,250 --> 00:26:09,010 Speaker 1: kind or altruistic, because all these problems would be. 508 00:26:08,970 --> 00:26:14,210 Speaker 2: So this fair question too. Without human sympathy, let's not 509 00:26:14,250 --> 00:26:15,890 Speaker 2: call it altruism, Let's just call it kind of a 510 00:26:15,890 --> 00:26:20,010 Speaker 2: basic sympathy for our fellow creatures. Without that, why would 511 00:26:20,050 --> 00:26:24,130 Speaker 2: you bother to organize society in a kinder way? Like 512 00:26:24,330 --> 00:26:27,050 Speaker 2: that is what's at the bottom of attempts to organize 513 00:26:27,050 --> 00:26:29,690 Speaker 2: society so that you don't need it. It's a funny 514 00:26:29,690 --> 00:26:32,930 Speaker 2: situation in a way, because when I think of altruism, 515 00:26:33,370 --> 00:26:37,290 Speaker 2: they kind of selflessness. Every time you scratch the surface, 516 00:26:37,370 --> 00:26:39,490 Speaker 2: if you find some human motive for what they're doing, 517 00:26:39,930 --> 00:26:42,690 Speaker 2: selfish might be too strong, but it's not exactly selfless. 518 00:26:43,450 --> 00:26:46,730 Speaker 2: So when you ask this question, my mind goes in 519 00:26:46,770 --> 00:26:48,810 Speaker 2: a completely different direction, and my mind goes in the 520 00:26:48,810 --> 00:26:51,650 Speaker 2: direction of do we actually even have altruism? Is there 521 00:26:51,730 --> 00:26:55,370 Speaker 2: such a thing? I think it's more complicated than that. 522 00:26:56,050 --> 00:26:58,370 Speaker 2: The minute you were sitting in a room with Sam 523 00:26:58,410 --> 00:27:02,170 Speaker 2: bankman Fried and is effective altruists at FTX, you realize 524 00:27:02,210 --> 00:27:04,330 Speaker 2: they were engaged in a kind of competition with other 525 00:27:04,370 --> 00:27:07,290 Speaker 2: effective altruists. Who's going to be the biggest deal in 526 00:27:07,330 --> 00:27:10,170 Speaker 2: the effective altruism community. It's like who's going to save 527 00:27:10,210 --> 00:27:13,890 Speaker 2: the most future lives. They never put it quite so crudely, 528 00:27:13,930 --> 00:27:15,810 Speaker 2: but it was in the air. Maybe that's good jolly. 529 00:27:15,850 --> 00:27:18,810 Speaker 2: You've got these kind of killer competitive instincts. And it 530 00:27:18,890 --> 00:27:20,970 Speaker 2: could be people kidding each other with machetes, or it 531 00:27:20,970 --> 00:27:23,010 Speaker 2: could be Wall Street traders trying to make the most money. 532 00:27:23,090 --> 00:27:26,650 Speaker 2: The beauty of early sam Bekman Freed and his crowd 533 00:27:27,410 --> 00:27:31,570 Speaker 2: was so we have this machine called Wall Street. It 534 00:27:31,650 --> 00:27:34,930 Speaker 2: is gotten better and better at extracting rents. The people 535 00:27:34,970 --> 00:27:38,250 Speaker 2: who are the peak predators on Wall Street now are 536 00:27:38,250 --> 00:27:41,530 Speaker 2: the high frequency traders, the Citadel's, the Jane Streets, the 537 00:27:41,570 --> 00:27:45,530 Speaker 2: jump trading, the Hudson River trading virtue, all these places 538 00:27:46,330 --> 00:27:50,130 Speaker 2: generating more money for individuals than have ever been generated 539 00:27:50,170 --> 00:27:53,610 Speaker 2: on Wall Street before. And all of a sudden, the 540 00:27:53,730 --> 00:27:56,650 Speaker 2: kind of person who's good at that has this religion 541 00:27:56,810 --> 00:27:59,690 Speaker 2: about giving the money away. I thought, for a brief 542 00:27:59,770 --> 00:28:02,210 Speaker 2: moment there was this kind of robin Hood thing that 543 00:28:02,290 --> 00:28:05,330 Speaker 2: might go on. And in fact, Jane Street, which is 544 00:28:05,410 --> 00:28:09,450 Speaker 2: the leader of the pack. Jane Street started to worry 545 00:28:09,970 --> 00:28:12,450 Speaker 2: that too many of the people that they were recruiting 546 00:28:13,050 --> 00:28:15,890 Speaker 2: were effective altress. And the problem with the effective altress 547 00:28:15,890 --> 00:28:17,770 Speaker 2: is they couldn't control them in the way you control 548 00:28:17,810 --> 00:28:19,690 Speaker 2: a normal person who just wants a fourth house and 549 00:28:19,730 --> 00:28:23,010 Speaker 2: a third yacht. They didn't have the same materialist needs. 550 00:28:23,050 --> 00:28:26,450 Speaker 2: They were doing it for this kind of quasi religious reason, 551 00:28:26,930 --> 00:28:29,810 Speaker 2: and it made them much harder to manage. But I thought, 552 00:28:29,810 --> 00:28:33,170 Speaker 2: what a great problem. Wouldn't it be cool if instead 553 00:28:33,170 --> 00:28:35,570 Speaker 2: of like reforming Wall Street because we'll never do it, 554 00:28:36,010 --> 00:28:38,770 Speaker 2: that it's sort of weirdly reformed itself. Because the kind 555 00:28:38,770 --> 00:28:41,450 Speaker 2: of person who got into the position of making the 556 00:28:41,450 --> 00:28:44,330 Speaker 2: most money felt like it was his religion to give 557 00:28:44,370 --> 00:28:47,330 Speaker 2: it away. That would have been cool. 558 00:28:47,650 --> 00:28:50,050 Speaker 1: Yeah, No, it would have been would have been so 559 00:28:50,210 --> 00:28:52,690 Speaker 1: a quick question from our listener Richard, which I think 560 00:28:52,810 --> 00:28:55,770 Speaker 1: is tied to that point. It's an exequat question really. 561 00:28:55,930 --> 00:28:58,290 Speaker 1: He says, if you give money to charity, should you 562 00:28:58,330 --> 00:28:59,450 Speaker 1: tell everybody about it? 563 00:28:59,530 --> 00:28:59,650 Speaker 2: Well? 564 00:28:59,650 --> 00:29:02,010 Speaker 1: Should you just do it? Should you just do it quietly? Well, 565 00:29:02,050 --> 00:29:04,370 Speaker 1: one hand, you should do it quietly because it's undignified 566 00:29:04,410 --> 00:29:06,250 Speaker 1: and it's not about you, It's about the charity. But 567 00:29:06,290 --> 00:29:08,650 Speaker 1: on the other hand, if you tell your friends you're 568 00:29:08,650 --> 00:29:10,930 Speaker 1: giving money to charity, then maybe that will encourage them 569 00:29:10,970 --> 00:29:12,210 Speaker 1: to give as well. 570 00:29:12,210 --> 00:29:14,090 Speaker 2: That's an interesting way to put it. I don't think 571 00:29:14,130 --> 00:29:16,930 Speaker 2: people who put their names on buildings are doing it 572 00:29:17,130 --> 00:29:19,130 Speaker 2: because they want to encourage other people to put their 573 00:29:19,210 --> 00:29:22,850 Speaker 2: names on buildings. It's self advertisement. Yeah. I was raised 574 00:29:22,890 --> 00:29:24,890 Speaker 2: to be very quiet about this sort of thing, that 575 00:29:25,410 --> 00:29:28,490 Speaker 2: you give money if you always listed as anonymous. I've 576 00:29:28,530 --> 00:29:31,530 Speaker 2: had organizations ask we put our name on it, and 577 00:29:31,570 --> 00:29:33,650 Speaker 2: I said, and when they want that, I let them 578 00:29:33,690 --> 00:29:37,370 Speaker 2: do it. My answer to the etiquee question is let 579 00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:41,010 Speaker 2: the recipient decide whether they want your name on it 580 00:29:41,090 --> 00:29:43,610 Speaker 2: or not, what's better for the recipient, and do whatever 581 00:29:43,730 --> 00:29:44,930 Speaker 2: is better for them. 582 00:29:45,250 --> 00:29:48,250 Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael, brilliant answers. Hold on with us, and 583 00:29:48,330 --> 00:29:51,530 Speaker 1: let's talk about your new book, Who Is Government. After 584 00:29:51,530 --> 00:30:02,210 Speaker 1: the break, we're back. I'm here with my fellow Pushkin podcaster, 585 00:30:02,330 --> 00:30:08,410 Speaker 1: the brilliant writer Michael Lewis. Michael, you very kindly agreed 586 00:30:08,570 --> 00:30:11,850 Speaker 1: to come on the podcast and talk about Sam Bankmnfreed 587 00:30:11,930 --> 00:30:14,090 Speaker 1: and talk about going infinite. And then I got a 588 00:30:14,130 --> 00:30:16,330 Speaker 1: message saying, oh, by the way, Michael has a new 589 00:30:16,370 --> 00:30:18,690 Speaker 1: book out. You should probably ask him some questions about that. 590 00:30:19,210 --> 00:30:21,170 Speaker 1: I have to admit my heart sank a little bit. 591 00:30:21,170 --> 00:30:24,930 Speaker 1: I thought, I don't really have time to read another 592 00:30:24,970 --> 00:30:29,490 Speaker 1: book in preparation for this podcast. And of course, the 593 00:30:29,570 --> 00:30:32,690 Speaker 1: moment I opened the first page, I was immediately drawn 594 00:30:32,730 --> 00:30:35,850 Speaker 1: in and I loved the book. So congratulations, But tell 595 00:30:35,930 --> 00:30:37,050 Speaker 1: us about who is government? 596 00:30:37,250 --> 00:30:39,170 Speaker 2: So I wrote a book about a set in the 597 00:30:39,210 --> 00:30:42,010 Speaker 2: first Trump administration called The Fifth Risk, where I wandered 598 00:30:42,010 --> 00:30:46,570 Speaker 2: around the administration, the executive branch, and got essentially an 599 00:30:46,690 --> 00:30:50,250 Speaker 2: education from the various departments that Trump himself refused to get. 600 00:30:50,370 --> 00:30:53,450 Speaker 2: So how the Agriculture Department worked, how the Energy Department worked, 601 00:30:53,450 --> 00:30:56,410 Speaker 2: what went on inside these places. And the longer I 602 00:30:56,410 --> 00:30:58,930 Speaker 2: spent there, the more taken I was with the actual 603 00:30:59,010 --> 00:31:03,090 Speaker 2: characters in government. Whatever the stereotype of the bureaucrat is 604 00:31:03,690 --> 00:31:06,850 Speaker 2: in the American mind, they violated it. There were these 605 00:31:07,170 --> 00:31:11,450 Speaker 2: breathtakingly devoted public servants who were experts and all kinds 606 00:31:11,490 --> 00:31:16,650 Speaker 2: of arcane and in some cases spintanely frightening fields who 607 00:31:17,130 --> 00:31:21,130 Speaker 2: were doing the work that kept the society together. And 608 00:31:21,250 --> 00:31:24,090 Speaker 2: I thought, you know, there really was a project coming 609 00:31:24,170 --> 00:31:27,090 Speaker 2: back and just doing profiles of these people. And it 610 00:31:27,130 --> 00:31:30,490 Speaker 2: wasn't so much because I saw Doge coming. I'm surprised 611 00:31:30,530 --> 00:31:34,250 Speaker 2: Doge came. It was more that I thought just generally 612 00:31:34,290 --> 00:31:39,130 Speaker 2: the conversation around American government had gotten so dumb because 613 00:31:39,130 --> 00:31:41,290 Speaker 2: people didn't really appreciate what the government did and who 614 00:31:41,330 --> 00:31:43,850 Speaker 2: the people were who did it. So I recruited six writers, 615 00:31:44,410 --> 00:31:48,770 Speaker 2: Dave Eggers, John Lanchester, Geraldine Brooks, Casey Sepp, Camal Bell, 616 00:31:48,890 --> 00:31:53,130 Speaker 2: and Sarah Val none of them really conventional journalists Comal 617 00:31:53,210 --> 00:31:57,090 Speaker 2: Bell's a stand up comedian, Dave and Geraldine mostly novelists, 618 00:31:57,090 --> 00:31:59,730 Speaker 2: same as John, and just dropped them into the government, 619 00:31:59,770 --> 00:32:02,250 Speaker 2: said look, find a story, and I did two of them. 620 00:32:03,090 --> 00:32:06,570 Speaker 2: And the idea was just like inoculate the American public 621 00:32:06,610 --> 00:32:09,770 Speaker 2: against these really stupid critiques of their government. I mean, 622 00:32:09,810 --> 00:32:13,530 Speaker 2: these things ran one by one each week in the 623 00:32:13,730 --> 00:32:16,410 Speaker 2: eight weeks running up to the election, and then we 624 00:32:16,450 --> 00:32:18,290 Speaker 2: put them together the book because they got so much attention. 625 00:32:18,890 --> 00:32:21,290 Speaker 2: The thing that really got me was actually the quality 626 00:32:21,330 --> 00:32:24,090 Speaker 2: of the material. Like the first story is about a 627 00:32:24,090 --> 00:32:27,890 Speaker 2: guy named Chris Mark who figured out how to prevent 628 00:32:27,930 --> 00:32:30,090 Speaker 2: the roofs of coal mines falling in on the heads 629 00:32:30,090 --> 00:32:33,370 Speaker 2: of coal miners, and you think, well, that's an arcane problem, 630 00:32:33,450 --> 00:32:36,370 Speaker 2: and how big a deal could that be? Fifty thousand 631 00:32:36,410 --> 00:32:39,930 Speaker 2: American coal miners killed by roof falls in the last century, 632 00:32:40,210 --> 00:32:42,810 Speaker 2: and who knows how many more around the world, And 633 00:32:43,130 --> 00:32:45,650 Speaker 2: there was just an imperfect science and how to keep 634 00:32:45,690 --> 00:32:48,570 Speaker 2: the roof of a coal miner up, and how this 635 00:32:48,650 --> 00:32:52,730 Speaker 2: person comes to his expertise, why he does it, how 636 00:32:52,770 --> 00:32:55,010 Speaker 2: he does it is literate. It was just like this 637 00:32:55,090 --> 00:32:58,130 Speaker 2: stuff of novels. You find that over and over again 638 00:32:58,170 --> 00:32:58,690 Speaker 2: in the Government. 639 00:32:58,730 --> 00:33:01,370 Speaker 1: The story about Christopher Market. We don't want too many spoilers. 640 00:33:01,370 --> 00:33:04,050 Speaker 1: But his father is kind of, among other things, an 641 00:33:04,090 --> 00:33:06,490 Speaker 1: expert in why Gothic cathedrals don't fool. 642 00:33:06,290 --> 00:33:08,210 Speaker 2: Down, and he rebels against the father. 643 00:33:08,410 --> 00:33:10,170 Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't get on a tour, they don't get 644 00:33:10,210 --> 00:33:11,850 Speaker 1: on He leaves home and. 645 00:33:11,770 --> 00:33:14,890 Speaker 2: Refuses to get a college education. He goes and joins 646 00:33:14,970 --> 00:33:19,690 Speaker 2: the working class and then essentially reprises his father's career underground. 647 00:33:20,130 --> 00:33:22,370 Speaker 2: And when I tell him that, he gets angry at me. No, 648 00:33:22,490 --> 00:33:24,170 Speaker 2: it has nothing to do with my father. Yes, my 649 00:33:24,210 --> 00:33:26,490 Speaker 2: father figured out how the roofs of Gothic cathedrals don't 650 00:33:26,490 --> 00:33:28,290 Speaker 2: fall down, but that has nothing to do with how 651 00:33:28,330 --> 00:33:30,050 Speaker 2: the roofs of coal mines don't fall down. 652 00:33:30,290 --> 00:33:32,370 Speaker 1: Yeah, And of course it's it's the same problem. 653 00:33:32,530 --> 00:33:36,130 Speaker 2: It's the same basically, some little differences, but from any 654 00:33:36,210 --> 00:33:39,210 Speaker 2: kind of perspective outside of his own, it's the same problem. 655 00:33:39,250 --> 00:33:42,450 Speaker 2: And so that there were these psychological portraits to draw 656 00:33:42,490 --> 00:33:44,890 Speaker 2: that were just fun. I don't know how you think 657 00:33:44,890 --> 00:33:47,090 Speaker 2: about what you do. I think about what I do 658 00:33:47,210 --> 00:33:50,730 Speaker 2: is like goal mining. I'm a prospector. I wander around, 659 00:33:50,970 --> 00:33:54,810 Speaker 2: you know, the mountains of California, kicking up dirt under 660 00:33:54,810 --> 00:33:56,890 Speaker 2: my feet, looking for a place where I can sink 661 00:33:56,970 --> 00:34:00,570 Speaker 2: my pick and maybe find some gold. And it's kind 662 00:34:00,570 --> 00:34:02,850 Speaker 2: of random when I find it. There's not a great 663 00:34:02,930 --> 00:34:05,370 Speaker 2: science to the finding of the gold. You get good 664 00:34:05,410 --> 00:34:08,810 Speaker 2: at sort of analyzing the landscape. You got a sense 665 00:34:08,810 --> 00:34:10,690 Speaker 2: of this might be and where it might not be. 666 00:34:11,170 --> 00:34:14,330 Speaker 2: But it's still a lot of luck involved. I felt 667 00:34:14,370 --> 00:34:18,090 Speaker 2: that with the fifth risk, I found this unbelievably rich 668 00:34:18,730 --> 00:34:22,650 Speaker 2: vein of ore. I can only scoop out a fraction 669 00:34:22,810 --> 00:34:24,450 Speaker 2: of it because there was so much of it. And 670 00:34:24,490 --> 00:34:25,810 Speaker 2: I was working with my hands, and I had a 671 00:34:25,810 --> 00:34:28,530 Speaker 2: bucket on my back, and there was all this stuff 672 00:34:28,650 --> 00:34:31,010 Speaker 2: left behind, and I thought it would all be gone 673 00:34:31,050 --> 00:34:33,610 Speaker 2: by the time I came back to it. And in fact, 674 00:34:33,610 --> 00:34:35,690 Speaker 2: it's like noem would bother to go find the mind. 675 00:34:35,970 --> 00:34:36,730 Speaker 2: No one's interested. 676 00:34:37,090 --> 00:34:40,170 Speaker 1: There's this line by Geraldine Brooks, one of the writers 677 00:34:40,170 --> 00:34:43,690 Speaker 1: in Who Is Government. She's profiling a guy who is 678 00:34:43,730 --> 00:34:51,010 Speaker 1: a jiu jitsu instructor, tennis coach, fights terrorists and pedophiles, 679 00:34:51,210 --> 00:34:53,250 Speaker 1: but it is a qualified accountant and works for the 680 00:34:53,290 --> 00:34:56,010 Speaker 1: in non revenue service. And she says, you know, if 681 00:34:56,010 --> 00:34:58,810 Speaker 1: this was a novel, this would be malpractice, right, you 682 00:34:58,850 --> 00:35:01,690 Speaker 1: can't just make this sort of stuff up. But because 683 00:35:01,730 --> 00:35:03,290 Speaker 1: it happens to be true and this guy is a 684 00:35:03,290 --> 00:35:05,250 Speaker 1: real person, I'm actually allowed to have him as a 685 00:35:05,330 --> 00:35:06,290 Speaker 1: character in this story. 686 00:35:06,330 --> 00:35:08,970 Speaker 2: And it tells you something. This person who is like 687 00:35:09,450 --> 00:35:11,850 Speaker 2: the profit center of the United States government because he's 688 00:35:11,850 --> 00:35:15,850 Speaker 2: busting up cyber crime rings and raking in their bitcoin 689 00:35:15,890 --> 00:35:18,850 Speaker 2: and sticking it in the treasury. He's generated billions with 690 00:35:18,890 --> 00:35:22,410 Speaker 2: his team, billions of dollars of free money for the government. 691 00:35:22,970 --> 00:35:26,650 Speaker 2: And the Trump administration has disabled him. They've fired half 692 00:35:26,690 --> 00:35:29,410 Speaker 2: his unit and he can't do what he did as before. 693 00:35:29,690 --> 00:35:33,610 Speaker 2: Then our population isn't just completely outraged by this is 694 00:35:33,650 --> 00:35:36,290 Speaker 2: incredible to me, but they wouldn't know to be outraged 695 00:35:36,610 --> 00:35:38,770 Speaker 2: unless you knew the story. And you only know the 696 00:35:38,770 --> 00:35:41,210 Speaker 2: story if you read Geraldine's piece because it's not in 697 00:35:41,250 --> 00:35:41,610 Speaker 2: the news. 698 00:35:41,650 --> 00:35:45,010 Speaker 1: Otherwise it's astonishing and he busted Peter followings, there's one 699 00:35:45,050 --> 00:35:47,410 Speaker 1: point where somebody from Hamas's tweets and says, oh, what 700 00:35:47,490 --> 00:35:50,330 Speaker 1: you can donate to the revolutionary cause. He's send your 701 00:35:50,330 --> 00:35:54,610 Speaker 1: bitcoin to this address, and he redirects it basically hacks 702 00:35:54,650 --> 00:35:56,770 Speaker 1: their bank account. I have to say the details of 703 00:35:56,770 --> 00:35:58,650 Speaker 1: exactly how this happened to lost on me, but anybody 704 00:35:58,650 --> 00:36:01,690 Speaker 1: who donated bitcoin it ended up going to victims of 705 00:36:01,690 --> 00:36:04,290 Speaker 1: state sponsored terrorism, right and anybody who clicked on the 706 00:36:04,290 --> 00:36:07,730 Speaker 1: Hamas logo got directed to Rick Castley singing never going 707 00:36:07,770 --> 00:36:09,770 Speaker 1: to give you up. So who says the Buroucuts don't 708 00:36:09,770 --> 00:36:11,890 Speaker 1: have a sense of humor, Oh no, they do. That 709 00:36:12,090 --> 00:36:14,810 Speaker 1: they don't have, by and large is a sense of 710 00:36:14,850 --> 00:36:17,770 Speaker 1: themselves as characters. This was the thing that all. 711 00:36:17,690 --> 00:36:21,090 Speaker 2: The writers came away thinking, they like, I'd find this 712 00:36:21,170 --> 00:36:23,130 Speaker 2: person who had done this unbelievable thing, and I'd say 713 00:36:23,170 --> 00:36:24,450 Speaker 2: I want to talk to you about it, and he goes, well, 714 00:36:24,450 --> 00:36:26,730 Speaker 2: it wasn't really me. It was the team that you 715 00:36:26,770 --> 00:36:29,530 Speaker 2: really have to talk to my bosses. It was very 716 00:36:29,570 --> 00:36:32,770 Speaker 2: little ego. I guess what it is. These jobs self 717 00:36:32,850 --> 00:36:36,170 Speaker 2: select for people who really like doing big, important things 718 00:36:36,210 --> 00:36:38,970 Speaker 2: but don't care much about credit or money. It's hard 719 00:36:39,010 --> 00:36:41,570 Speaker 2: to believe that such people still exist in American life. 720 00:36:41,810 --> 00:36:44,290 Speaker 2: Everybody else seems to be looking for fame and fortune. 721 00:36:44,530 --> 00:36:47,410 Speaker 2: These are still like the opposite of reality TV stars. 722 00:36:47,610 --> 00:36:50,410 Speaker 2: They got interested in a problem. They've worried the problem 723 00:36:50,450 --> 00:36:53,090 Speaker 2: to death for thirty years, has had enormous consequences, and 724 00:36:53,090 --> 00:36:54,610 Speaker 2: they don't expect anybody to pay attention. 725 00:36:54,850 --> 00:36:56,890 Speaker 1: I need. You get nervous when people do, or at 726 00:36:56,970 --> 00:36:59,130 Speaker 1: least the bureaucracy around them gets nervous. 727 00:36:59,170 --> 00:37:01,970 Speaker 2: Well, that's right. That's really actually an important point because 728 00:37:02,010 --> 00:37:04,210 Speaker 2: that was the other thing all the writers noticed. And 729 00:37:04,250 --> 00:37:07,250 Speaker 2: this is maybe by way a way to explain why 730 00:37:07,290 --> 00:37:11,490 Speaker 2: there's this inefficiency and information about this, is that the 731 00:37:11,530 --> 00:37:15,450 Speaker 2: bureaucracy has gotten so used to all attention being bad attention. 732 00:37:15,570 --> 00:37:17,930 Speaker 1: So journalist shows up and says, I'd just like to 733 00:37:18,010 --> 00:37:20,370 Speaker 1: know what you're doing and why you're doing. 734 00:37:20,290 --> 00:37:22,570 Speaker 2: It, and they assume this is going to end with 735 00:37:22,650 --> 00:37:26,250 Speaker 2: this like a congressional hearing and me getting fired and 736 00:37:26,330 --> 00:37:28,410 Speaker 2: humiliated and prevented from doing anything for. 737 00:37:28,330 --> 00:37:30,690 Speaker 1: The rest of my life, whereas in fact, it's like, no, no, 738 00:37:30,810 --> 00:37:32,290 Speaker 1: I just want to know what you're doing, because it's 739 00:37:32,290 --> 00:37:33,930 Speaker 1: amazing what you're doing, and I want to tell everyone 740 00:37:33,930 --> 00:37:35,490 Speaker 1: what you're doing that's right in a good way. 741 00:37:35,610 --> 00:37:38,570 Speaker 2: They themselves are that not as wary because they aren't 742 00:37:38,570 --> 00:37:42,010 Speaker 2: doing anything bad. It's the political people above them are 743 00:37:42,090 --> 00:37:44,370 Speaker 2: worried that this story will somehow make the White House 744 00:37:44,370 --> 00:37:47,170 Speaker 2: look bad, and they can't imagine how it would make 745 00:37:47,210 --> 00:37:48,170 Speaker 2: the White House look good. 746 00:37:48,370 --> 00:37:51,970 Speaker 1: Yeah, and there is a story to be told. I 747 00:37:51,970 --> 00:37:56,370 Speaker 1: think also about how the poor reputation of government bureaucracy 748 00:37:56,890 --> 00:38:00,290 Speaker 1: just makes their life harder, irrespective of the politics itself. 749 00:38:00,410 --> 00:38:03,770 Speaker 1: I think you profile the woman who studies rare diseases. 750 00:38:04,050 --> 00:38:07,250 Speaker 2: Yes, so she doesn't really study rare diseases. She's had 751 00:38:07,290 --> 00:38:11,010 Speaker 2: a bunch of them stone And let me just tell 752 00:38:11,010 --> 00:38:12,890 Speaker 2: you how I found her, because that sort of explains 753 00:38:12,890 --> 00:38:15,250 Speaker 2: how what a role is in the world. So back 754 00:38:15,290 --> 00:38:17,490 Speaker 2: when I was working on my COVID book The Premonition, 755 00:38:17,970 --> 00:38:20,970 Speaker 2: one of the characters was a researcher named Joe Derriesi 756 00:38:21,050 --> 00:38:25,370 Speaker 2: who's like he was a superhero in BioResearch and Joe 757 00:38:25,650 --> 00:38:27,530 Speaker 2: he was working on COVID, but at the same time 758 00:38:28,050 --> 00:38:31,290 Speaker 2: he had discovered what he thought might be a treatment 759 00:38:31,410 --> 00:38:35,970 Speaker 2: for a rare brain eating amiba called balamuthia. I'd never 760 00:38:35,970 --> 00:38:37,970 Speaker 2: heard of this thing. Nobody had ever heard of this thing. 761 00:38:37,970 --> 00:38:40,130 Speaker 2: It did, wasn't It was discovered in like the nineteen 762 00:38:40,210 --> 00:38:41,650 Speaker 2: nineties in the San Diego Zoo. 763 00:38:41,730 --> 00:38:44,810 Speaker 1: But subsequently now I'm now having nine minutes about it. 764 00:38:44,930 --> 00:38:46,250 Speaker 1: So thank you for telling me it's. 765 00:38:46,210 --> 00:38:49,970 Speaker 2: Time should be you should yeah, because there's some tens 766 00:38:50,010 --> 00:38:52,610 Speaker 2: of thousands of cases each year in the United States 767 00:38:52,930 --> 00:38:57,410 Speaker 2: of people dying of unidentified encephalitis. It's like something's going 768 00:38:57,410 --> 00:38:59,450 Speaker 2: on in their brain and they never figure it out. 769 00:38:59,690 --> 00:39:04,010 Speaker 2: They die it's just encephalitis. There was a woman whose 770 00:39:04,050 --> 00:39:06,170 Speaker 2: brain was being eaten by something they couldn't figure out 771 00:39:06,210 --> 00:39:10,650 Speaker 2: what rolls into the UCSF emergency room. Joe gets involved. 772 00:39:10,770 --> 00:39:13,250 Speaker 2: Eventually she dies. He gets involved too late, but he's 773 00:39:13,290 --> 00:39:16,850 Speaker 2: able to identify the bug that's in her brain, and 774 00:39:16,890 --> 00:39:20,410 Speaker 2: it's this Ballamuthia Mandrillis. It's called it's a brain eating 775 00:39:20,450 --> 00:39:23,970 Speaker 2: a meba. He then, very cleverly he says, well, like, 776 00:39:24,890 --> 00:39:27,330 Speaker 2: what could you do to treat this in his lab, 777 00:39:27,410 --> 00:39:31,730 Speaker 2: he has as his graduate students bombard balamuthia with every 778 00:39:31,810 --> 00:39:34,290 Speaker 2: drug that's been approved either in Europe or the United States, 779 00:39:35,250 --> 00:39:38,690 Speaker 2: and find that one drug, a UTI drug used in 780 00:39:38,690 --> 00:39:43,490 Speaker 2: Europe called nitroxylene, kills the Baalamuthia clearly doesn't kill people. 781 00:39:43,570 --> 00:39:46,410 Speaker 2: People are taking it for UTIs, so like, why not 782 00:39:46,490 --> 00:39:49,890 Speaker 2: try this and lo and behold even though it's rare. 783 00:39:50,090 --> 00:39:54,130 Speaker 2: Pretty shortly thereafter, someone else rolls into the emergency room 784 00:39:54,370 --> 00:39:57,130 Speaker 2: has the same symptoms. They find he has ballamuthi in 785 00:39:57,130 --> 00:40:00,210 Speaker 2: his brain. They give him the nitroxylene and he survives. 786 00:40:00,810 --> 00:40:01,010 Speaker 1: Yeah. 787 00:40:01,370 --> 00:40:03,210 Speaker 2: I say to him, I said, man, that's great. Now 788 00:40:03,250 --> 00:40:05,410 Speaker 2: everybody will know there's at least something you could treat 789 00:40:05,410 --> 00:40:07,610 Speaker 2: it with. And he says, Nope, doesn't work that way, 790 00:40:07,930 --> 00:40:11,170 Speaker 2: he said, may we'll be able to publish a scientific paper. 791 00:40:11,650 --> 00:40:15,930 Speaker 2: Maybe doctors will notice it. But there's every possibility that 792 00:40:15,970 --> 00:40:18,290 Speaker 2: if you roll into a hospital with Ballymouthie anywhere else 793 00:40:18,290 --> 00:40:20,930 Speaker 2: in America, that they won't even know we did this work. 794 00:40:21,050 --> 00:40:23,050 Speaker 1: There's two problems, right, So one problem is you didn't 795 00:40:23,090 --> 00:40:25,330 Speaker 1: run a round the most trial, so you can't be sure. 796 00:40:25,370 --> 00:40:26,050 Speaker 1: Maybe it was a flu. 797 00:40:26,210 --> 00:40:26,570 Speaker 2: Correct. 798 00:40:26,650 --> 00:40:29,730 Speaker 1: It's still interesting that you had a theory, and you 799 00:40:29,770 --> 00:40:33,730 Speaker 1: gave him the drug and he got better. So maybe, 800 00:40:33,770 --> 00:40:35,970 Speaker 1: But then your second problem is, you know, how do 801 00:40:36,010 --> 00:40:38,370 Speaker 1: you tell people that maybe yes. 802 00:40:38,410 --> 00:40:40,970 Speaker 2: But with these rare diseases, you're never going to have 803 00:40:41,490 --> 00:40:45,250 Speaker 2: a randomized trial. And when they're fatal, if you roll 804 00:40:45,290 --> 00:40:49,090 Speaker 2: in Tim with Ballymouthie in your brain, would you rather 805 00:40:49,170 --> 00:40:53,610 Speaker 2: them throw some nitroxyline in you or not? If they don't, 806 00:40:53,730 --> 00:40:55,890 Speaker 2: we know what's going to happen if they don't, So 807 00:40:56,010 --> 00:40:59,170 Speaker 2: your brain is going to get eaten. That's bad, so 808 00:41:00,570 --> 00:41:03,210 Speaker 2: it why not? And the other side of this is 809 00:41:03,250 --> 00:41:06,370 Speaker 2: that because it's a rare disease, the pharmaceutical industry has 810 00:41:06,410 --> 00:41:08,450 Speaker 2: no interest in it. It's like there's no money in it. No, 811 00:41:08,650 --> 00:41:10,410 Speaker 2: none of people going to have this happen to them. 812 00:41:11,010 --> 00:41:12,970 Speaker 2: By the way, the way you apparently get is by 813 00:41:13,130 --> 00:41:16,210 Speaker 2: ingesting dirt, So be careful with dirt when your garden. 814 00:41:16,490 --> 00:41:20,370 Speaker 2: Don't put your hands to your mouth anyway. So Joe 815 00:41:20,370 --> 00:41:22,890 Speaker 2: says to me, this is a natural place for government 816 00:41:23,090 --> 00:41:25,810 Speaker 2: to intervene, to at least collate, because people like me 817 00:41:25,850 --> 00:41:28,090 Speaker 2: are doing this stuff all the time. And there's a 818 00:41:28,130 --> 00:41:31,770 Speaker 2: woman in the Food and Drug Administration named Heatherstone who 819 00:41:31,810 --> 00:41:35,290 Speaker 2: is kind of all by herself, basically decided to tackle 820 00:41:35,290 --> 00:41:38,410 Speaker 2: this problem. She's created an app that try to gather 821 00:41:39,210 --> 00:41:43,170 Speaker 2: every instance of a rare disease being treated around the world, 822 00:41:43,170 --> 00:41:45,370 Speaker 2: how it was treated in what the outcome was. There's 823 00:41:45,450 --> 00:41:49,210 Speaker 2: hope for people who have rare diseases. But the government 824 00:41:49,250 --> 00:41:53,130 Speaker 2: does not have the energy anymore to get behind Heatherstone's creation. 825 00:41:53,170 --> 00:41:55,930 Speaker 2: They're unwilling to really promote it. She's a woman on 826 00:41:55,970 --> 00:41:59,050 Speaker 2: her own to go into medical conferences trying to persuade 827 00:41:59,090 --> 00:42:03,930 Speaker 2: doctors to plug in their rare disease treatment their cases 828 00:42:04,050 --> 00:42:08,290 Speaker 2: into her app. It's going nowhere. What happens? The story 829 00:42:08,330 --> 00:42:10,490 Speaker 2: in the end is about girl and six year old 830 00:42:10,530 --> 00:42:12,970 Speaker 2: girl in Arkansas who rolls in and takes them forever 831 00:42:13,010 --> 00:42:15,250 Speaker 2: to find that she's got balimuthia. But she has ballymuthia 832 00:42:16,450 --> 00:42:20,210 Speaker 2: the completely screwed up way in which her life is saved. 833 00:42:21,290 --> 00:42:26,890 Speaker 2: The little girl in Arkansas parents google around and find 834 00:42:26,970 --> 00:42:30,050 Speaker 2: that Heatherstone has been thanked by JODORESI for helping me 835 00:42:30,170 --> 00:42:33,610 Speaker 2: get his hands on nitroxylene, and they get personally in 836 00:42:33,650 --> 00:42:36,250 Speaker 2: touch with her, and she makes sure that they get 837 00:42:36,290 --> 00:42:39,050 Speaker 2: the drug and her life is saved. But at the 838 00:42:39,210 --> 00:42:43,490 Speaker 2: very same time, just like forty miles from Jodoresi's office 839 00:42:43,490 --> 00:42:47,410 Speaker 2: in California, another little girl got Ballymuthia, never heard of 840 00:42:47,410 --> 00:42:49,890 Speaker 2: the cure and died. And it's sort of like a 841 00:42:49,970 --> 00:42:52,850 Speaker 2: parable of good and bad government, Like, do you what 842 00:42:53,010 --> 00:42:54,810 Speaker 2: kind of government do you want to have? A government 843 00:42:54,850 --> 00:42:58,610 Speaker 2: that has emboldened and strengthened to actually follow through on 844 00:42:58,650 --> 00:43:01,010 Speaker 2: this really good idea of how to deal with an 845 00:43:01,010 --> 00:43:04,050 Speaker 2: intractable problem, or a government that actually has kind of 846 00:43:04,050 --> 00:43:06,970 Speaker 2: lost its spirit and its energy because she created the 847 00:43:07,010 --> 00:43:10,970 Speaker 2: app cure idea. It's called it should be useful, it 848 00:43:11,050 --> 00:43:13,530 Speaker 2: should be something people pay attention. It should be something 849 00:43:13,570 --> 00:43:17,250 Speaker 2: that the government throws its credibility behind. But then you know, 850 00:43:17,250 --> 00:43:20,210 Speaker 2: the government has less credibility. And it's a story of 851 00:43:21,250 --> 00:43:27,130 Speaker 2: the frustrating of the impulses of people who previously might 852 00:43:27,170 --> 00:43:29,890 Speaker 2: have done really great things in the government. So it's 853 00:43:29,930 --> 00:43:32,570 Speaker 2: a sad story. It's a sad story masquerading as a 854 00:43:32,570 --> 00:43:36,170 Speaker 2: happy story, but a kind of amazing story. 855 00:43:36,250 --> 00:43:37,410 Speaker 1: It's absolutely amazing. 856 00:43:37,570 --> 00:43:41,170 Speaker 2: There's this thing that kind of springs from between the 857 00:43:41,210 --> 00:43:45,010 Speaker 2: lines of the whole book. These people feel like people 858 00:43:46,210 --> 00:43:49,930 Speaker 2: who have figured out the way to lead a meaningful life, 859 00:43:50,050 --> 00:43:52,570 Speaker 2: and this brings us back to effective altruism. One of 860 00:43:52,650 --> 00:43:55,210 Speaker 2: the keys to a meaningful life is to find ways 861 00:43:55,250 --> 00:43:58,770 Speaker 2: outside of yourself, find ways to live for things other 862 00:43:58,850 --> 00:44:02,850 Speaker 2: than yourself. You know, Sam Begman Freed groped towards this 863 00:44:02,890 --> 00:44:05,850 Speaker 2: in his own weird way. But these people put their 864 00:44:05,850 --> 00:44:08,610 Speaker 2: finger on it right away. There are problems I can 865 00:44:08,730 --> 00:44:11,050 Speaker 2: solve and it will help others. And never mind how 866 00:44:11,130 --> 00:44:13,890 Speaker 2: much I'm paid or whether I'm acknowledged for it. And 867 00:44:14,330 --> 00:44:16,930 Speaker 2: I'm not wired to do that. I need more attention 868 00:44:17,370 --> 00:44:20,210 Speaker 2: than I should. But they are and we should be 869 00:44:20,250 --> 00:44:23,530 Speaker 2: disgrateful for them instead of heaping scorn and derision upon them. 870 00:44:24,530 --> 00:44:27,090 Speaker 1: I've been talking to Michael Lewis. Michael is the author 871 00:44:27,130 --> 00:44:31,290 Speaker 1: of Going Infinite and a new book with co authors, 872 00:44:31,570 --> 00:44:34,330 Speaker 1: Who Is Government. Michael has been great to talk to you. 873 00:44:34,410 --> 00:44:37,210 Speaker 2: Thank you. I always find Tim and. 874 00:44:37,170 --> 00:44:40,010 Speaker 1: You can listen to Michael's podcast Against the Rules wherever 875 00:44:40,050 --> 00:44:42,810 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. As for me, I will be 876 00:44:42,890 --> 00:44:49,890 Speaker 1: back next week with another Cautionary Tale. For a full 877 00:44:49,930 --> 00:44:58,930 Speaker 1: list of our sources, see the show notes Timharford dot com. 878 00:44:58,970 --> 00:45:02,210 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales has written by me Tim Harford with Andrew 879 00:45:02,210 --> 00:45:06,210 Speaker 1: Wright Alice Fines and Ryan Dinney. It's produced by Georgia 880 00:45:06,290 --> 00:45:10,330 Speaker 1: Mills and Marilyn Rust. The sounders are and original music 881 00:45:10,490 --> 00:45:13,970 Speaker 1: are the work of Pascal Wise. Additional sound design is 882 00:45:14,010 --> 00:45:18,490 Speaker 1: by Carlos San Juan at Brain Audio. Bend A Dafhaffrey 883 00:45:18,690 --> 00:45:22,290 Speaker 1: edited the scripts. The show features the voice talents of 884 00:45:22,330 --> 00:45:27,610 Speaker 1: Melanie Guttridge, Stella Harford, Oliver Hembrough, Sarah Jupp, messaam Monroe, 885 00:45:27,850 --> 00:45:31,850 Speaker 1: Jamal Westman and Rufus Wright. The show also wouldn't have 886 00:45:31,850 --> 00:45:35,130 Speaker 1: been possible without the work of Jacob Weisberg, Greta Cohne, 887 00:45:35,570 --> 00:45:40,370 Speaker 1: Sarah Nix, Eric Sandler, Carrie Brody, Christina Sullivan, Kira Posey, 888 00:45:40,570 --> 00:45:45,810 Speaker 1: and Owen Miller. Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. 889 00:45:45,930 --> 00:45:50,170 Speaker 1: It's recorded at Wardore Studios in London by Tom Berry. 890 00:45:50,690 --> 00:45:53,490 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please remember to share, rate 891 00:45:53,730 --> 00:45:55,890 Speaker 1: and review. It really makes a difference to us and 892 00:45:55,930 --> 00:45:58,570 Speaker 1: if you want to hear the show, add free sign 893 00:45:58,650 --> 00:46:01,250 Speaker 1: up to Pushkin Plus on the show page on Apple 894 00:46:01,290 --> 00:46:04,970 Speaker 1: Podcasts or at pushkin dot Fm, slash plus