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Speaker 1: It is the final fish Bites of twenty nineteen. Eli

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Speaker 1: Sussman here to host it for you. Grateful as always

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Speaker 1: to have you tuning in. All Fish Stripes podcast episodes

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Speaker 1: should be available on your usual podcast provider. If not,

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Speaker 1: just check the website Fishstripes dot com. Slash podcast is

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Speaker 1: where we organize it all. By far, the most productive

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Speaker 1: year in the history of our podcast recordings. We had one, two, three,

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Speaker 1: I think about six different hosts over the course of

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Speaker 1: the year, a lot of them coming back for twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Going to be adding some new ideas as well. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be very fun. Considering that we're coming up right

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Speaker 1: at the new year, this is usually a time to

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Speaker 1: be very reflective, maybe even take it easy when it

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Speaker 1: comes to analyzing all things Miami Marlins, but we're not

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Speaker 1: gonna do that. A big surprise, not a surprise, really,

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Speaker 1: but breaking news that just so happens to pop up

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Speaker 1: just in time to be recorded on this episode on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: The Marlins, per multiple reports, have reached an agreement with

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Speaker 1: outfielder Corey Dickerson, the biggest free agent signing so far

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Speaker 1: under new Marlins ownership, two years, seventeen point five million,

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Speaker 1: dollars guaranteed. Still awaiting full details about any possible incentives,

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Speaker 1: it seems to be just a straight up two year

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Speaker 1: deal with no options, and again by far, the largest

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Speaker 1: commitment that the Marlins have made to any one player

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Speaker 1: since new ownership took over. The previous largest commitment was

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Speaker 1: the Miguil Rojas extension for just over ten million dollars

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Speaker 1: and the largest amount that they'd ever guaranteed to one

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Speaker 1: player In what is now what over two years under

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Speaker 1: new ownership, the largest commitment to any single player had

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Speaker 1: been Victor Victor Mesa and the five point twenty five

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Speaker 1: million dollars signing bonus that he received from the team

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Speaker 1: as an international amateur free agent. Dickerson more than triples

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Speaker 1: that guarantee, and there's good reason for it. He's a

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Speaker 1: former All Star, a former Gold Glove Award winner, seemingly

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Speaker 1: right near the prime of his career, and of course

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Speaker 1: he was a free agent didn't have any draft pick

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Speaker 1: compensation attached to him. Reportedly, at least one other team

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Speaker 1: had some serious interests, the Saint Louis Cardinals at one

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Speaker 1: point in the offseason, and surely some of the other

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Speaker 1: teams that have since signed to other outfielders were asking

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Speaker 1: around for him because Dickerson has a great offensive track record,

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Speaker 1: a very interesting defensive track record, and overall, he's just

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Speaker 1: a very complicated player, one that I'm pretty confident makes

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Speaker 1: the Marlins better in twenty twenty. And we'll see if

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Speaker 1: he's around for twenty twenty one. That's still to be

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Speaker 1: determined considering all the outfield prospects coming up through the pipeline.

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Speaker 1: But here's what you guys are probably aware of is

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Speaker 1: that the Marlins had also been seriously considering Yasiel Puigue,

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Speaker 1: who remains a free agent as of this recording on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: December twenty ninth. The Marlins just locking up a guy

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Speaker 1: that they felt would make their team better, not willing

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Speaker 1: to wait for Puigue, who purportedly has several teams still

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Speaker 1: trying to get his attention in free agency. And Dickerson

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Speaker 1: is a very complicated player, like I said, one that

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Speaker 1: is a pretty clear upgrade over who the Marlins had

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Speaker 1: internally as major league options heading into twenty twenty. But

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Speaker 1: he's a complicated player, and that's what we're gonna be dedicating.

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Speaker 1: The bulk of this episode is to going a big

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Speaker 1: deep dive on what the Marlins have done here in

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Speaker 1: signing Dickerson, the biggest commitment they've made to a single

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Speaker 1: player under this ownership group, and why they did it now,

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Speaker 1: why we think they may have preferred him to some

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Speaker 1: of the alternatives, What to reasonably expect from him in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty, whether it makes sense to keep him on

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Speaker 1: the roster in twenty twenty one, and just a really

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Speaker 1: detailed breakdown of who he is as a player. Once

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Speaker 1: we're done with that, we'll finish up with some New

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Speaker 1: Year's resolutions from the Marlins. Several general things that the

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Speaker 1: Marlins should be looking to do in twenty twenty that

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Speaker 1: are entirely within their control. And that's the thing. Sometimes

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Speaker 1: we want to make wishful suggestions to the team about

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Speaker 1: what we hope they should do, about things they should

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Speaker 1: try to do, But the whole premise of making a

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Speaker 1: new Year's resolution is about your own discipline and motivation, etc.

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Speaker 1: Things that are fully within your control. And so I

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Speaker 1: have a couple of suggestions a few particular actions that

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Speaker 1: they can take in twenty twenty that should put the

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Speaker 1: team in a better place moving forward long term. As

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Speaker 1: this offseason they've taken a big step forward towards relevancy.

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Speaker 1: I think, if we're being real about it, they're not

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Speaker 1: all that relevant yet on a league wide scale. Still

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Speaker 1: facing a big uphill battle in the National League East,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna but Dickerson himself was a very important

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Speaker 1: individual move. You could say that one reason why this

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Speaker 1: Marlins offseason has been so widely praised, I would say,

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Speaker 1: not just within South Florida, but across the league is

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Speaker 1: because the Marlins have addressed a handful of different positions,

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Speaker 1: from backup catcher to first base, to utility infield to

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Speaker 1: their bullpen, and they've taken on such little risk in

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Speaker 1: this process. They've made a lot of additions by subtractions,

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Speaker 1: considering some of the veteran players who struggled last year

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Speaker 1: entered free agency and have not been resigned. So that's

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Speaker 1: an obvious one that's in their favor. And they already

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Speaker 1: had solid internal options lined up because of all the

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Speaker 1: trades that they've made in the previous years to acquire

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Speaker 1: prospect depth. We now have several new prospects that are

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Speaker 1: ready to break through to the majors in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Instead of plucking veterans off the junk heap as they

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Speaker 1: did last year. They have guys that have really significant

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Speaker 1: potential ready to break through when they have an opening

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Speaker 1: in their rotation if they do have position player injuries.

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Speaker 1: They have great internal options that are young and have

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Speaker 1: very high ceilings, players that you could reasonably expect, at

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Speaker 1: least in a couple cases that they'll immediately show themselves

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Speaker 1: to be productive big leaguers because that is their pedigree

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Speaker 1: and the results that they've shown in the minor leagues.

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Speaker 1: There's gonna be a lot of internal improvement from the

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Speaker 1: team and the outside acquisitions that they've made. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: just taking on such minimal risk, and this leads us

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Speaker 1: to Dickerson, because Dickerson, more so than any of the

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Speaker 1: other offseason additions, there is some risk attached to them.

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Speaker 1: It's seventeen point five million dollars guaranteed. We'll wait to

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Speaker 1: find out the exact distribution of that money over the

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Speaker 1: course of the deal, but assuming that it is spread

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Speaker 1: out over both years relatively evenly, then that is a

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Speaker 1: significant investment in twenty twenty one, a year that the

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Speaker 1: Marlins have been targeting for a while now as the

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Speaker 1: one that they'll really be making their big leap towards

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Speaker 1: potentially being a contending team on the periphery of maybe

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Speaker 1: the wild card race if everything goes absolutely right. And

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Speaker 1: so now, this is a significant amount of a chunk

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Speaker 1: of money that is committed to twenty twenty one if

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Speaker 1: they're not able to trade Dickerson between now and then.

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Speaker 1: Some backgrounds on Dickerson. He was drafted out of Meridian

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Speaker 1: Community College in Mississippi, and that's probably not a school

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Speaker 1: that you guys are all that familiar with, but it

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Speaker 1: immediately set off a light bulb in my mind because

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, the first draft under this revamped Marlins

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Speaker 1: front office, they selected two players in that same draft

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Speaker 1: class out of Meridian Community College. Those were outfielders Milton

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Speaker 1: Smith the seconds and Davis Bradshaw. Both of them were

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Speaker 1: very productive coming out of the draft in twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Smith was pretty good again here in twenty nineteen, playing

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Speaker 1: mostly for Batavia. Bradshaw took a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: step back, but nonetheless, this is a community college that

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Speaker 1: has a surprisingly strong track record of producing professional baseball talent.

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Speaker 1: The most notable alum out of Meridian is certainly Cliff Lee.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully who you remember as one of the more effective

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Speaker 1: pitchers in baseball during the latter half of the two

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Speaker 1: thousands and the early twenty tens. He has since retired

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Speaker 1: great strike thrower an work course, won a sy Young Award,

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Speaker 1: pitched in the postseason several times for the Phillies, and

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Speaker 1: aside from Cliff Lee, Corey Dickerson is the second most

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Speaker 1: accomplished alum of Meridian. He has now been in the

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Speaker 1: majors for one, two, three, seven years. Prior to earning

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Speaker 1: his free agency this past year, played with the Rockies.

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Speaker 1: Developed by the rock He's came up to the majors

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Speaker 1: with the Rockies, got traded to the Rays, got traded

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Speaker 1: to the Pirates, and then this past year during the

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Speaker 1: middle of the year, got traded to the Phillies. So

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Speaker 1: he has played with a total of four organizations at

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Speaker 1: the major league level, and for every single one of them,

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Speaker 1: he has been an above average hitter. This is if

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Speaker 1: you're looking at my favorite tool would be weighted runs

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Speaker 1: created plus, which normalizes everything on about a scale starting

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Speaker 1: at one hundred, representing the league average. If you're a

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Speaker 1: below one hundred, you're below average. If you're above a hundred,

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Speaker 1: you're above average, and it incorporates everything that happens as

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Speaker 1: a batter, everything that you do in the batter's box.

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Speaker 1: First career, he has a one hundred and seventeen WRC plus,

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent better than the league average, and doing that

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Speaker 1: over the course of nearly three thousand plate appearances, that

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Speaker 1: means you're significantly better than the average major league hitter.

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Speaker 1: During the twenty nineteen season, Dickerson split time between the Pirates,

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Speaker 1: where he started the year and then got traded over

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Speaker 1: to the Phillies. Overall, a three to four batting average,

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Speaker 1: three p forty one on base five sixty five slugging,

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Speaker 1: So he had a one to twenty seven WRC plus

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Speaker 1: last year, which was his highest over the last several years.

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Speaker 1: He missed a big chunk of the year between a

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Speaker 1: shoulder strain and then his season ended prematurely because of

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Speaker 1: a broken foot, and so that limited him to two

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy nine played appearances. That it's about half

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Speaker 1: a season for a guy like Dickerson, and he was

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Speaker 1: producing one point zero wins above replacement according to Fangrafts.

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Speaker 1: So if you pro rate that over the course of

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Speaker 1: a mostly healthy season, you get about two wins above

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Speaker 1: replacement and that is more or less an average starting

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Speaker 1: quality player in the major leagues. So the Marlins getting

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Speaker 1: that kind of player for less than nine million dollars

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Speaker 1: a year. It seems the previous couple of years with

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Speaker 1: the Pirates in twenty eighteen, with the Rais in twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: he was worth over two and a half wins above placement,

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Speaker 1: and if you look at those three years combined together,

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Speaker 1: his value is it's nearly a perfect match for what

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Speaker 1: yasil Pligue had done. And he is three prior seasons

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Speaker 1: before entering free agency, and also lines up pretty well

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Speaker 1: with Avasayl Garcia, who is another player that the Marlins

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Speaker 1: were known to be targeting at various points this offseason.

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Speaker 1: So the contract amount, the seventeen point five million dollars,

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Speaker 1: is also a pretty fair market rate. It doesn't appear

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Speaker 1: that there were all that many complicated factors going on

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Speaker 1: in here, because Cole Calhoun, another lefty, swinging, power hitting

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Speaker 1: that are an outfielder who's available. He got two years

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Speaker 1: sixteen million from the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this month. In Garcia,

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Speaker 1: he got two years twenty million dollars from the Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: Brewers not that long ago. Both those guys got club

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Speaker 1: options attached to their deals, which you could say probably

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Speaker 1: brings down the overall value a little bit, because if

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Speaker 1: they do perform well, then they don't have control over themselves.

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Speaker 1: For the twenty twenty two season, Garcia has a bit

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Speaker 1: of a funky vesting option going on in there that

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Speaker 1: would allow him to answer free agency if he is

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Speaker 1: durable enough. All these outfielders had their own warts. For Dickerson,

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Speaker 1: the biggest war probably the two are the durability questions

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Speaker 1: and the platoon questions, because he was a guy that

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Speaker 1: I'm going to cite some reporting from Craig Mish, the

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Speaker 1: fantasy sports radio host also Swings and Miss's host. He

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Speaker 1: noted that the Marlins had been eyeing Dickerson for a

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Speaker 1: good amount of time this offseason. Joefersorrow of MLB dot

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Speaker 1: Com says that Dickerson had been a target all the

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Speaker 1: way from the beginning of the offseason, but both of

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Speaker 1: them expressing some concerns that he's not a true everyday

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Speaker 1: player aside from that one year in twenty seventeen when

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Speaker 1: he was an All Star with the Rays. That was

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Speaker 1: the one year that came closest to being like a

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Speaker 1: true everyday starter six hundred and twenty nine played appearances.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't come all that close to that total in

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Speaker 1: any of his other major league seasons. With the injury front,

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Speaker 1: as I said this past year, a shoulder strain and

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Speaker 1: a broken foot. If you back it up further enough,

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Speaker 1: I guess this would be all the way to twenty

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Speaker 1: fifteen a rib fracture, and earlier in twenty fifteen Planter

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Speaker 1: fasciitis in his foot. So you now have multiple foot

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Speaker 1: injuries in his career, but there's a big gap between

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Speaker 1: twenty fifteen and twenty nineteen, and the foot injury that

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Speaker 1: ended his most recent year is not expected to impact

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Speaker 1: his readiness for spring training. We need to look deeper, though,

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Speaker 1: into the platoon splits, because as I noted, overall, he

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Speaker 1: is a far above average hitter in his career, and

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Speaker 1: coming off an especially strong year with the Phillies and

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Speaker 1: the Pirates, the question is whether he could even be

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Speaker 1: in the lineup effectively against left handed pitching. And there's

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Speaker 1: some really interesting stuff when you dig into this, because

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Speaker 1: he does have very sizeable platoon splits in his career.

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Speaker 1: He is one of the better active players in hitting

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Speaker 1: right handed pitching. For his major league career, in eight

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Speaker 1: sixty six career ops against righty's one hundred and two

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Speaker 1: of his home runs one hundred and fifteen career home

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Speaker 1: runs one hundred and two against righty's, and so if

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Speaker 1: you do the math, one hundred and fifteen career home

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Speaker 1: runs one oh two against righties, that's only thirteen in

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Speaker 1: his career against left handed pitching. His playing time has

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Speaker 1: been very significantly reduced against lefties, making up about twenty

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Speaker 1: three twenty two percent of his career played appearances, so

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Speaker 1: his previous teams have not had full confidence in him

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Speaker 1: being productive against left handed pitching. The batting average is

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Speaker 1: pretty similar against lefties and righties, two ninety against righties,

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Speaker 1: two seventy two against lefties. The on base percentage is

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Speaker 1: all right against lefties, a three to ten, but you

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Speaker 1: see the big difference in his power, where he has

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Speaker 1: very good home in power against right handers, but his

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Speaker 1: approach clearly changes when he's at a platoon disadvantage, only

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Speaker 1: a four h nine career slugging an isolated power of

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Speaker 1: one thirty seven when you subtract the batting average from

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Speaker 1: the slugging percentage. He had just thirteen home runs in

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Speaker 1: what is basically the equivalent of a full season against

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Speaker 1: left handed pitching. That's so his approach is a lot different.

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Speaker 1: He's still somewhat successful, somewhat adequate in those situations because

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Speaker 1: he has a very high batting average on balls and play.

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Speaker 1: The interesting part of me is that if you look

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Speaker 1: at his year by year, it seems that he has

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Speaker 1: been really improving in this aspect of his game. Those

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Speaker 1: are very large splits if you look at his career totals,

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Speaker 1: but a lot of that damage was done in particular

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Speaker 1: in twenty fifteen and in twenty sixteen. If you look

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Speaker 1: at the past three years, though, an eight to twenty

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Speaker 1: ops against lefties in twenty seventeen, seven thirty five and

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen seven. Two ops against lefties this past season,

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Speaker 1: including three home runs, even though he was missing so

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Speaker 1: much time with his injuries. So that really jumps out

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Speaker 1: to me, the fact that he has been far improved

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Speaker 1: against lefties over the past few years as compared to

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Speaker 1: earlier in his career. I don't think it was necessarily

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Speaker 1: an automatic that he sits down overall, though the power

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Speaker 1: isn't really there when he's facing left handed pitching.

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Speaker 2: So why is that?

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Speaker 1: The first thing that jumps out is that Dickerson is

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Speaker 1: not a poll happy type of player. He is the

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Speaker 1: total opposite of that. Dickerson in twenty nineteen led all

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Speaker 1: of Major League Baseball in hitting to the opposite field.

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Speaker 1: The rate of his batted balls going to left field.

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Speaker 1: Considering that he's batting from the left side, if he pulls,

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Speaker 1: the ball goes to right. Going to the opposite field

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Speaker 1: is to left. He is the highest rate of using

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Speaker 1: the opposite field out of any player last year that

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Speaker 1: had at least two hundred played appearances. I'm comparing him

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Speaker 1: to some guys that are qualified hitters, and he wasn't

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Speaker 1: qualified because of the injuries. But thirty six point seven

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Speaker 1: percent of his batted balls going the other wedding in

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Speaker 1: first career, a thirty one point six percent career rate,

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Speaker 1: which is right up there near the very top of

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Speaker 1: active players who have been in the major's last handful

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Speaker 1: of years. Thirty one point six percent, nearly a third

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Speaker 1: of his lifetime batted balls in the majors using the

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Speaker 1: opposite field.

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Speaker 3: You're not expecting the ball to come and hit your

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Speaker 3: feet you're standing out there, shot it right through a

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Speaker 3: lot of pace handing by Corey Dickerson. Yeah, that brings

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Speaker 3: in a run. In fact, he's got a double out

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Speaker 3: of that baby. It's four to three. Art pinn chitters

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Speaker 3: continue to do the job. I mean that again. We've

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Speaker 3: seen Corey Dickerson do this so many times a year ago,

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Speaker 3: just hitting the balls the other way. We saw it

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Speaker 3: last night and that ball runs off the plate, stayed

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Speaker 3: on that change up and just sent it right down

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Speaker 3: the lines, not overswinging the heads down, playing Pepper and

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Speaker 3: hitt it softly enough to where the ball doesn't get

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Speaker 3: out to the left field or for Marius, So Dickerson

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Speaker 3: can get into second.

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Speaker 1: And that gives you a little bit of confidence that

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Speaker 1: he can age kind of well. Because he uses all fields,

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Speaker 1: it makes him difficult to defense. Throughout his career, he

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Speaker 1: has been a beneficiary of some really inflated batting average

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Speaker 1: on balls and play across most of the league. That

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Speaker 1: number usually normalizes pretty close to a three hundred batting

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Speaker 1: average slightly lower than that in the high two nineties

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Speaker 1: for batting average on balls and play, and for Dickerson,

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Speaker 1: he has a lifetime three point thirty one babbit. So

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Speaker 1: the question is how much of that is luck, how

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Speaker 1: much of that is skill? And there's some pretty compelling

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Speaker 1: suggestions in here that make you think that there are

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Speaker 1: signs that would indicate that Dickerson is in control in

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Speaker 1: a lot of these situations, and he's he's the reason

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Speaker 1: why he's overperforming in this metric because of his particular

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Speaker 1: approach and skill. Said, only one year in his entire

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Speaker 1: career twenty sixteen, did he have a babbit below the

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Speaker 1: league average. Every year it's been besides that, it's been

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Speaker 1: significantly better than three hundred, including a three forty four

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Speaker 1: figure this past year between his two teams. And I

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Speaker 1: would say that using all fields is the biggest reason

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Speaker 1: why that's the case, because the other batted ball data

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Speaker 1: actually isn't all that impressive and not really that extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: He's a guy that, even though he has consistently hit

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Speaker 1: for above average power as an overall player, he's coming

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Speaker 1: off a year where his average exit velocity on all

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Speaker 1: his batted balls was just eighty seven miles per hour,

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Speaker 1: So that's below the major league average. A guy that

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Speaker 1: is known for his bat that actually does not consistently

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Speaker 1: hit the ball all that hard. His hard hit rate

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Speaker 1: again more or less right there at the league average.

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Speaker 1: And this past year there was a you huge disparity

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Speaker 1: between what's called his weighted on base average and his

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Speaker 1: expected weighted on base average. Stack cast will use the

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Speaker 1: launch angle, the exit velocity of his balls and try

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Speaker 1: to approximate the results that he gets because of the

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Speaker 1: quality of his badged ball contact, and they think that

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Speaker 1: based on how he was impacting the ball and the

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Speaker 1: trajectory of those balls, that he was more or less

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Speaker 1: an average hitter this past year. And we've already emphasized

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Speaker 1: that he was a great hitter, not average, but just

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Speaker 1: on the expected weighted on base average that he had

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Speaker 1: last year, a three to eighteen figure, which is pretty

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Speaker 1: much the norm across Major league baseball. Yet his weighted

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Speaker 1: on base average, the actual results that he had as

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Speaker 1: a player were three sixty eight, a fifty point disparity

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Speaker 1: between his expected weighted on base and his actual weighted

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Speaker 1: on base average. We need to try to parse out

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Speaker 1: how much of that he's controlling and how much of

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Speaker 1: that is luck. He did spread the ball to the

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Speaker 1: opposite field more than ever before, and that's something that

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Speaker 1: would not really be reflected in these type of calculations,

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Speaker 1: so that would be something that is more sustainable going

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Speaker 1: forward as long as he continues to use left field

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Speaker 1: very frequently. But last year one thing that he did

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Speaker 1: that was counterproductive is he was popping up a lot

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Speaker 1: of balls seventeen and a half percent of his fly

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Speaker 1: balls or in field pop ups, which is the most

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Speaker 1: automatic out that you can make in baseball if you

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Speaker 1: think about it popping up the ball. Obviously, if you

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Speaker 1: strike out, you're not giving yourself any chance whatsoever, But

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Speaker 1: in terms of actually putting balls in play, the worst

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Speaker 1: thing you can do as a batter is pop it up.

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Speaker 1: That's not something that's given him much trouble in the past,

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Speaker 1: but for whatever combination of reasons, he did waste a

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Speaker 1: lot of played appearances in twenty nineteen on pop ups.

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Speaker 1: That's something that you'd like to see normalized. There is

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Speaker 1: another concerning trend with his stat cast data. This is

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Speaker 1: a guy that is now coming off his age thirty season,

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Speaker 1: and if you want rewind the previous couple of years,

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Speaker 1: he's seen a decline in his maximum exit velocity, the

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Speaker 1: exit v low that he produces at his very hardest

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Speaker 1: hit Ball of the season each of the past three years.

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Speaker 1: In twenty seventeen, he maxed out his exit velocity at

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirteen miles per hour. Last year he

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Speaker 1: maxed it at In twenty eighteen, he maxed out at

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eleven miles per hour. In twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 1: he only maxed out at one oh nine miles per hour.

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Speaker 1: And that still sounds good. If you hit it at

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Speaker 1: one oh nine and you hit a line driver fly ball,

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Speaker 1: it's going over the wall for a home run.

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Speaker 2: Where you walk and you get hit by a pitch,

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Speaker 2: you strikeout, you know, or you hit a home run. Huh, oh,

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Speaker 2: my goodness. A beat goes on for Corey Dickerson. This

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Speaker 2: guy is unconscious. He's now home most in four straight games,

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Speaker 2: hitting a total of after clubbing two here yesterday.

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Speaker 1: That being said, it's not all that exceptional for someone

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Speaker 1: that prides themselves on their bat. It would pale in

399
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Speaker 1: comparison to someone like Jorhel Farrow. Even Garrett Cooper is

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Speaker 1: someone that would make harder maximum contact than Dickerson has

401
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Speaker 1: the past few years. This actually shows some resemblance between

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Speaker 1: Dickerson and VR as offensive players, where VR is coming off.

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Speaker 1: As we've mentioned previously in previous episodes, Jonathan VR, coming

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Speaker 1: off a good offensive year with the Orioles, set a

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Speaker 1: career high in home runs, and he did it without

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Speaker 1: really lighting up the boards in terms of the distance

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Speaker 1: on his home runs or the exit velocity. So it

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Speaker 1: is possible to be successful, and Dickerson is someone that

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Speaker 1: has had some consistent success as an offensive player even

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Speaker 1: though he doesn't light it up with his physical tools.

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Speaker 1: A couple other elements of Dickerson's offensive game that I

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Speaker 1: want to touch on, beginning with his selectivity at the plate,

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Speaker 1: or his lack thereof. Dickerson is notoriously non selective as

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Speaker 1: a batter. He had a chase rate last season of

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Speaker 1: forty six point two percent. According to fangrafs, he swung

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Speaker 1: and nearly half of all the pitches that he saw

417
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Speaker 1: outside of the strike zone. He's swung at the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of pitches that he saw as a player overall,

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Speaker 1: but just in terms of the ones that were outside

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Speaker 1: the zone according to our tracking data, he offered had

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Speaker 1: forty six percent of them, and to put that in perspective,

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Speaker 1: that was a career high rate for Dickerson, but not

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Speaker 1: by all that much. It was pretty similar to his

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Speaker 1: previous years, where he's consistently hovered in the forties dating

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Speaker 1: back to twenty fifteen. In the last five years, overall,

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Speaker 1: he is a forty four point eight outside the zone

427
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,719
Speaker 1: swing percentage that is the second highest in Major League Baseball,

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Speaker 1: behind only Royals catcher Salvador Perez, who missed this past season.

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Speaker 1: Perez offers a lot defensively, but one of his big

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Speaker 1: flaws as a player has been his lack of selectivity

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Speaker 1: and how infrequently he gets on base, and Dickerson has

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Speaker 1: some tendencies that align with that, where because he does

433
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 1: swing so often outside the strike zone, he doesn't take

434
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 1: a lot of balls and therefore he can't draw all

435
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 1: that many walks. A lot of his offensive value is

436
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 1: predicated on simply hitting the ball, hitting it to where

437
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: the fielders aren't or hitting it over the wall, and

438
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: for most of his major league career he's been able

439
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 1: to do that at a well above average rate, with

440
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: really just the twenty sixteen season being the only huge

441
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: blip on his whole career. When it comes to being

442
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: a solid bat to have in your lineup productively, the

443
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 1: reason why he's able to get away with swinging at

444
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: so many bad pitches is that he makes contact with

445
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: a lot of them. He has a seventy one point

446
00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: five percent contact percentage outside the strike zone over those

447
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: past five years, the same span as we just mentioned before,

448
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 1: swinging at about forty five percent outside of the zone,

449
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 1: and of those that he's swinging at making contact at

450
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: seventy one and a half percent. That is a very

451
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: similar contact percentage on bad pitches as Mookie Betts and

452
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 1: Anthony Rizzo. Now those are just a couple most flattering

453
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: comparisons that made. There's some nobody's in that situation as well,

454
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: but just something to keep in mind that it is

455
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 1: one of the higher rates in baseball as well. It's

456
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 1: not as extreme as how many he swings at overall,

457
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: but he is very good relative to the rest of

458
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: the league actually putting those balls in play as well,

459
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: in line with some of the better, more well rounded

460
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 1: hitters in all of baseball. He's not quite on the

461
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: same level as Mooki or Rizzo as an overall offensive player,

462
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: but has some interesting comparisons between those two and the

463
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: other part that's difficult to reckon between all of these.

464
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: Knowing how aggressive he is, knowing that he's very aggressive

465
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: on the first pitch as well. He's the guy in

466
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,919
Speaker 1: the past few years that has swung at about forty

467
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: percent of the first pitches of his plate appearances. The

468
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: league average is more like twenty seven percent twenty eight percent,

469
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: and Dickerson has been well above that number as well

470
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: in terms of looking for first pitches to jump on.

471
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 1: So that's one particular element that I think makes him

472
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: a nice a nice target for the Marlins, considering that

473
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: they hired as their bench coach and offensive coordinator James

474
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 1: Rowson from the Twins. That was an interesting trait that

475
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: the Twins carried in twenty nineteen en route to setting

476
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: the major league record for home runs in the season

477
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,159
Speaker 1: and for being just a great offensive team overall. They

478
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 1: were very aggressive on the first pitch. So Dickerson will

479
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 1: fit very well within this one maybe somewhat of a

480
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: new philosophy that the Marlins are looking for when acquiring

481
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 1: offensive players. They like guys that are ready to swing

482
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: at the start of a plate appearance and recognize that

483
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 1: pitchers throw a lot of pitches over the plate at

484
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: the very first pitch of a matchup in order to

485
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 1: get ahead in the count, and Dickerson is a guy

486
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 1: that is not content with just taking that strike. For granted,

487
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: he's someone that swings often puts the ball in play

488
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: often in those situations. But here's the twist. For someone

489
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 1: like Dickerson that is so aggressive early in the count

490
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 1: and really aggressive in all situations, who we know doesn't

491
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: like to take walks, he somehow works really deep counts

492
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: this past season four point two eight pitches per played appearance.

493
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: And that was another weakness I would say that the

494
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: Marlins had last season is that as a team, they

495
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: did not work deep counts at all average three point

496
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 1: eighty three pitches per plate appearances. That was the third

497
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: lowest average in Major League Baseball. There's something to be

498
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: said about the cumulative effect of a lineup that makes

499
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 1: the starting pitcher work and forces the way into the

500
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: soft underbelly of an opposing bullpen and getting more favorable matchups,

501
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: or even before that, just taking a lot of pitches,

502
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: making the opposing starter rely on more of his secondary

503
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: pitches before he liked to, really disrupting that entire game

504
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 1: plan because you're making him work and you're fouling off

505
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 1: a lot of pitches. That's another particular thing that Diggerson

506
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: does well. So for someone that's so aggressive and isn't

507
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 1: drawing walks, the reason why he's extending these plate appearances

508
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: is because he fouls the ball off a lot. On

509
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: the higher foul ball rates in the majors, you're getting

510
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 1: used to find out that this guy's pretty extreme tendencies

511
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: as a hitter, and that's yet another one that he has,

512
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: fouling balls off and extending plate appearances compared to the

513
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: Marlins team average last year, nearly half a pitch more

514
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 1: per plate appearance. That was a career high for him.

515
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: That's not the norm, and so that's something that will

516
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: to continue emphasizing with this guy coming off of an

517
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: especially weird year for him that overall for his career,

518
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: I guess the things normalize a little bit more. His

519
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 1: lifetime average is three point nine to three pitches per

520
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: play appearance, so that is slightly above the major league average,

521
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 1: but it was really just this past year they made

522
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 1: a very interesting change because that's coming off a twenty

523
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: eighteen season where he wasn't really working deep counts, a

524
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: three point seventy three pitches per played appearance average, in

525
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, so it's an increase of four tenths of

526
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: a pitch per played appearance compared to the Marlins team average,

527
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 1: and for him personally, it's an extra half a pitch

528
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: compared to the previous year.

529
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 2: And this is weird.

530
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: This is weird for a guy that is in the

531
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: middle of his career last year being his age thirty season,

532
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: to make such a big change in the way that

533
00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 1: he works counts. It is somewhat you know, there is

534
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 1: that qualifier that he missed a lot of time with

535
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: the injuries, so it's not quite the same sample size

536
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: that we're used to. But nonetheless, I mean, this is

537
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: very unusual to see a guy make that kind of

538
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: big change in the way that he works deep counts

539
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: and the fact that he has on the rest of

540
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 1: the lineup. It'll be very curious to see how that

541
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: carries over into twenty twenty, whether he reverts to twenty

542
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: eighteen form, whether he figured out something in particular last

543
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 1: year and wants to keep that going, or whether he

544
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: winds up somewhere in the middle. Even if he winds

545
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 1: up back at his career averages, somewhere in the middle,

546
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: that is still what I would say an improvement to

547
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 1: the Marlins offense. Now we flip to the defensive side

548
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 1: of Corey Dickerson, which raises a lot more questions than

549
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: it actually answers when you really dig into it. He

550
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 1: has spent most of his major league career as a

551
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: left fielder. During his couple of years with the Tampa

552
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: Bay Rays, he saw some significant playing time at designated hitter,

553
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 1: but most of his career in left field. Very early

554
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: in his career he played some center field and with

555
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 1: a brief amount of experimentation in right field. That is

556
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 1: also a few years removed from In twenty eighteen, As

557
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: we'd mentioned earlier, he did win a National League Gold

558
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: Glove with the Pirates. According to Defensive run Saved sixteen

559
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: runs above average in his left field play, barely over

560
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 1: one thousand total endings at that position. In terms of

561
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 1: stat Cast, they have an outs above average metric that

562
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: put him at a plus ten compared to the average

563
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: player at his position, and the same thing with Ultimate

564
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: Zone Rating, which comes from Fangrafts eleven point nine UZR

565
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 1: per one hundred and fifty games across the board. He

566
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: rated out very favorably for his defense primarily because he

567
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: was good at getting reads on balls in front of

568
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: him coming in on balls. That's the best information we

569
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: have on that comes from stat cast, where he was

570
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: several runs above average and getting balls in front of him.

571
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 4: Fourth toughest batter to strike out in the league. This

572
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 4: ball's popped up left side, and this is dropping toward

573
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 4: left field, but cut by Corey Dickerson. He comes racing

574
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 4: in and goes down to that feet first slide nearing

575
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 4: the foul line and puts it away.

576
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 3: Made three excellent catches so far tonight.

577
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 4: He's done a good job out there as always.

578
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 2: Nice play by Corey Dickerson.

579
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: And also playing very well on balls hit to his

580
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: glove side, hit to his left So as a left fielder,

581
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: if you imagine this, balls hits your glove side are

582
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: heading towards the gap, towards the left center field gap.

583
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: So in addition to being able to field balls pretty

584
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: well in front of him that would have been singles,

585
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: he was also making plays on balls in the gap

586
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 1: that if they get by him, it's more likely to

587
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 1: be a double or triple. And he was just really

588
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: consistently good, particularly during the first half of that year.

589
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 1: But throughout the whole year he was a really effective

590
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 1: defensive player in left field for the Pirates. The headache

591
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: for me is that if you look at every other

592
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: year of his career that was not the case. This

593
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: looks to be a pretty big outlier in his career,

594
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: only one other year where he was a positive in

595
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: terms of defensive run saved. He's a guy that has

596
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: always tried to compensate for a below average throwing arm,

597
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: at least in terms of throwing strength on his arm.

598
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 1: He's someone that tries to compensate that with his instincts

599
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 1: and his range. But he's not really an exceptional athlete,

600
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: not an exceptional sprinter. So it makes you question how

601
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 1: exactly he is so effective as an outfielder. And I

602
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 1: guess the biggest indictment really of his defense is that

603
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: the previous year before he won the Gold Glove with

604
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 1: the Pirates and he was playing for the Rays. He

605
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: was an All Star in twenty seventeen, but that was

606
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 1: primarily on the back of his bat, not his defense,

607
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: and the Rays had him in the lineup close to

608
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,399
Speaker 1: every day, but very frequently had him as their designated hitter.

609
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 1: So to have him in the lineup, but to not

610
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 1: be using him defensively in those games, to think that

611
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 1: they had three better defensive outfielders in the same lineup

612
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: with him, I mean, that's a pretty big indictment of

613
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: how they were valuing his defense. And so if you

614
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 1: have an organization like the Rays thinking that he's a

615
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 1: bad first type of player, and do you have all

616
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 1: the public data from his twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen,

617
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, twenty nineteen seasons say that he

618
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: was not all that much of an asset out there,

619
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,800
Speaker 1: I don't think it's reasonable to just presume that Dickerson

620
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 1: will be a great defensive outfielder moving forward, considering his

621
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 1: age gonna be thirty one next season, and although the

622
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: indications are that he'll be fully healed from the foot

623
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 1: injury come twenty twenty, he is coming off a broken foot.

624
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 1: He had planner fasciatis early in his career, and he's

625
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: a player that even at his very best when he

626
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: won that Gold Glove, he was very relying on his

627
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: feet and getting good first step and good reads on

628
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: a ball. So anything that potentially limits the burst that

629
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: he has or the first step that he has as

630
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 1: a defensive ottlefielder that could be very costly to him

631
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: as a player overall. The reason why you're still encouraged

632
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 1: by all this, aside from that one season in the

633
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: recent history, is that you compare it to the internal

634
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: options that the Marlins had. Most of their defensive endings

635
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 1: in left field last year played by either Austin Dean

636
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: or Hailed Ramirez, a little bit of Garrett Cooper went

637
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: to left field as well, Curtis Granderson, and I think Dickerson,

638
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: even in the most pessimistic pessimistic scenario, that he's going

639
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 1: to be an improvement over that. That's all we're looking for.

640
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: We already know as an offensive player, Dickerson is going

641
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: to be a big boost to this team. Arguably the

642
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: best hitter that they have going against right handed pitching,

643
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 1: and defensively in left field, he should be a boost

644
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 1: to what they had. The reason why overall Marlin's outfielders

645
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: have been arguably the least valuable outfield group in baseball

646
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 1: the past two years is a big factor in that

647
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 1: has been the defense, especially in the left field. So Dickerson,

648
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 1: even if you're not sure he's an average left fielder

649
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 1: moving forward. Even if he's slightly below average, that's still

650
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: a big improvement on what they had with Harold and

651
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: Dean and even Cooper that Dickerson he has the pedigree,

652
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: the recent pedigree, to potentially bounce back from twenty nineteen

653
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 1: and at the very worst, he's somewhere in the range

654
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: of being an adequate option out there, and that's part

655
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: of this whole total equation moving forward. That's part of

656
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: why the Marlins were willing to give him a multi

657
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 1: year deal. Even with the other outfielders that they have

658
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 1: coming up through the system, someone that will try to

659
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 1: challenge for an opening day spot like Monte Harrison, but

660
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: most of which are you're going to expect more towards

661
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 1: the end of twenty two, twenty or in twenty twenty one.

662
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 1: The reason why they were willing to give Dickerson what

663
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 1: appears to be a two year, fully guaranteed deal is

664
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: because they do see a scenario where they would be

665
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 1: able to trade him for some sort of significant return

666
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: in the second year, being able to offload some of

667
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 1: the financial commitment to another team, and maybe even getting

668
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 1: a prospect or multiple prospects in return for Dickerson at

669
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,280
Speaker 1: that time when they field they have very strong internal

670
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: options that are ready ready for the majors. Then again,

671
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 1: they probably presume the same thing with Starlin Castro. Remember

672
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: when they acquired him in the Stanton trade, he was

673
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 1: making a little bit more money than Dickerson is. Dickerson

674
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: is seventeen point five million these next two years. Castro

675
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 1: had about twenty two and a half twenty three million

676
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 1: left on his two years when they acquired him. And

677
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 1: the sumpsion coming into the twenty nineteen season is that

678
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 1: when is San Diaz was ready at second base, they'd

679
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 1: be able to just move on from Castro dumb them

680
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: to another team that once another professional hitter in their lineup,

681
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: And they weren't able to do that because Castro got

682
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:09,319
Speaker 1: off to a terrible slump throughout the entire first half

683
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen, and even though he bounced back in

684
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 1: a big way the final few months of the year,

685
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: other teams were not fully convinced about that, and they

686
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: weren't thrilled with his lack of defensive versatility. For all

687
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 1: we're saying about Dickerson and what he could potentially do

688
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 1: in left field if everything goes right. He hasn't played

689
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: center field since twenty fifteen, and even the experience that

690
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: he had there twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, that

691
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: it was not a significant chunk of experience to make

692
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: you believe that at this stage of his career he'd

693
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: be able to pick it up again and do well.

694
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 1: So that brings us again to the fit that Dickerson

695
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 1: has on this roster, where you expect him to start

696
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 1: almost automatically whenever they face a right handed pitching a

697
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 1: right handed pitcher, and based on the previous few years,

698
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 1: I think they would give some serious consideration to letting

699
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 1: him face select lefties, even though they do want to

700
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: get other young players involved. The fact that Dickerson has

701
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: handled same handed pitching pretty adequately the past few years,

702
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: it lends more to the possibility that he could be

703
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: something close to an everyday outfielder for the Marlins. With

704
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: Dickerson in the fold, at this reported price, the Marlins

705
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 1: payroll is getting pretty close to where it was in

706
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. That was a concern that I had is

707
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: whether they would really fully distribute all the money that

708
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 1: was coming off the books from twenty nineteen and they've

709
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 1: done that. It's worth noting that twenty two million dollars

710
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 1: of this payroll is going to Weigh and Chen, who's

711
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 1: not going to be involved with the team after being released,

712
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: So it's not all that. It's not like all that

713
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: money is active money going towards players contributing to the team.

714
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 1: But overall, they're at this moment projecting to be in

715
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 1: the mid seven one d million dollar range seventy three

716
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: to seventy five million dollars if they were to keep

717
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 1: this team together at the reported arbitration projections, the guaranteed

718
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 1: contracts and filling it out with pre arbitration eligible players,

719
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 1: there's the possibility that Jose Urania gets traded. The rhetoric

720
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 1: coming from Michael Hill and some of the reports such

721
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 1: as from Craig Mish and Joe Fersarrow, they hinted towards

722
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 1: the possibility that Urania is going to be a trade

723
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 1: candidate over the next couple of months because of Marlins

724
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 1: aren't quite sure what his role will be on the team,

725
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 1: and he's due about four million dollars as an arbitration

726
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 1: eligible player. So if that does happen and they take

727
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 1: minor league pieces back, in return, then all of a sudden,

728
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 1: you're looking at a pretty significant gap between twenty nineteen

729
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:49,399
Speaker 1: and twenty twenty payroll. All that being said, I think

730
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 1: the assumption that we have to make at this point

731
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: is that the position player group is pretty much set

732
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 1: heading into next year, and it's going to be interesting

733
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: to try to figure out how exactly all these pieces

734
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 1: fit together, because if we were to presume that Dickerson

735
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 1: is the pretty steady left fielder, we can presume that

736
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: if Isan Diez stays healthy, that he's gonna get every

737
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:18,479
Speaker 1: opportunity to play regularly at second base. Behind the plate,

738
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: you have Jorgel Farrow and Francisco Survalley. That's a pretty

739
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 1: strong combination. Miguel Rojas is going to be the returning shortstop,

740
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 1: but last year was somewhat better than expected from him offensively.

741
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 1: There could be some regression there, and if there is,

742
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you don't view him as necessarily

743
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: a lock to play every day at shortstop, but maybe

744
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: he returns more towards his utility player roots. They did

745
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: acquire Hayesusagalar, and they have Garrett Cooper returning, both of

746
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:51,959
Speaker 1: them being the very interesting first base options as power

747
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 1: hitters disciplined hitters. Between those two, you would expect most

748
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: of the first base opportunities to go to one of them.

749
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 1: You have Brian Anderson, obviously, him along with Jonathan VR,

750
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 1: are both guys coming off years and at a stage

751
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,480
Speaker 1: of their careers where you expect them to be true

752
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: everyday players. Between Anderson and VR, but the question is

753
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: exactly what positions they'll be playing. Anderson has split the

754
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 1: past couple of years between third base and ride field,

755
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 1: especially in twenty eighteen, really establishing himself as a good

756
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: defensive player at both positions. VR was a middle infielder

757
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: with the Orioles before being traded over. If things go

758
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 1: really well for both Isan and Rojas, then there's not

759
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: going to be all that much playing time at those positions.

760
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: That would bump VR potentially to third whereas some pro experience,

761
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 1: and it's been suggested by Craig Mish that VR is

762
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 1: going to get a look at center field as well.

763
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,800
Speaker 1: Using Miss's words, he's a candidate to be the opening

764
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 1: day center fielder, and I have some thoughts about that.

765
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 1: I mean, we do have to give the Marlin staff

766
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 1: some credit what they did with Brian Anderson. Anderson had

767
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 1: basically no outfield experience in his career until twenty eighteen,

768
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 1: where kind of out of necessity, they had so much

769
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: playing time available over there that they shifted him to

770
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: right field, and that has worked out pretty well. But

771
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 1: that does not work in all these cases. Just last year,

772
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,800
Speaker 1: they tried to convert JT. Riddle to center field and

773
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: that went really poorly. I mean, Riddle didn't hit to

774
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: begin with, but his defense at center field also left

775
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 1: a lot to be desired. He did not look comfortable

776
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 1: out there.

777
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 2: Overall.

778
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: If you look at all the cases the past couple

779
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 1: of years. Austin Dean got some looks at first base

780
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 1: late last year and he looked fine at that position,

781
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: but it's been a little bit hit or miss. There's nothing,

782
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 1: no real firm evidence to believe that the Marlins are

783
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 1: have any sort of expertise in terms of making these

784
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 1: kind of radical defensive adjustments to players that have learned

785
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 1: a certain way for years and years. VR's a guy

786
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,919
Speaker 1: in the prime of his career, now entering his eighth

787
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: major league season, and he has never played a complete

788
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: game in center field. I'll say that again. A guy

789
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: that is being floated as a potential center field option

790
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: for the Marlins. Has never played a complete game in

791
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: center field as a major leaguer, so that seems to

792
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: be a big leap to take to just assume that

793
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 1: he's going to be there. A couple other guys that

794
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 1: we expect to be in the mix with opening day

795
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 1: roster are Lewis Brentson and Magner Sierra. Both of those

796
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 1: guys are perfectly fine in center field. Sierra has the

797
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: potential to be a plus defensive center fielder. The question

798
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,800
Speaker 1: with them is the hit tool, with Brentson one of

799
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 1: the worst hitters in recent baseball history for a guy

800
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 1: in his mid twenties, and yeah, the history is not

801
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 1: very good for players like him to suddenly figure it out.

802
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 1: We know the great tools he has, the intangibles that

803
00:45:56,480 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: he brings, but the bottom line is his offensive production

804
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,879
Speaker 1: the past couple of years doesn't really justify even making

805
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,839
Speaker 1: the opening gay roster. We'll see if he makes any

806
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 1: firm adjustments in spring training to justify that. Magner Sierra

807
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: put up a three to fifty batting average during his

808
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,240
Speaker 1: limited major league time in twenty nineteen, but that sample

809
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 1: size is just not significant at all. It was only

810
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 1: fifteen games before he suffered a hamstring injury heading into

811
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: the offseason. His skill set is severely lacking in hard contact,

812
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,280
Speaker 1: so he's someone that relies so much on his legs

813
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: and he'll need to be a disciplined hitter as well

814
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 1: in order to get on base that way. He's so

815
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: impactful as a baserunner, and we'll get to that very

816
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 1: shortly in our final segment. But both with Sierra and

817
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 1: Brinson your two obvious internal options at center field, you're

818
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 1: leading internal options at centerfield. Both of them have serious

819
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 1: questions at overall players that make you wonder whether they

820
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:56,800
Speaker 1: deserve to be in the lineup on any sort of

821
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 1: regular basis. And the wild card in all this is

822
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: Monte Harrison, who is going to be entering his age

823
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: twenty four season, a couple of years removed from arriving

824
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 1: with Brentson in the Christian Yellis trade. He would have

825
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 1: been up in the majors at some point last year,

826
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:16,840
Speaker 1: but just had repeated issues with his wrist that delayed

827
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,359
Speaker 1: the start of his twenty nineteen season and then mid

828
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: season risk surgery that he was able to return from.

829
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 1: Down the stretch, played really well in Puerto Rico for

830
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 1: a few weeks this offseason that we've been tracking on

831
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:35,479
Speaker 1: fitz Stripes and his tools are really sensational, a question

832
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: being whether he can make enough contact to make his

833
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: tools manifest themselves in terms of production, and he certainly

834
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:48,359
Speaker 1: trended in a nice direction during twenty nineteen, just as

835
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 1: much defensive potential as Sierra, maybe even more because of

836
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 1: his plus arm strength that it brings to the table.

837
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:58,919
Speaker 1: Just a really exciting player that I think the most

838
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 1: likely scenario is that the Marlins started at Triple A

839
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: looking forward to his service time and knowing that if

840
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 1: he spends just a few weeks at the start of

841
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 1: the year in Triple A, that it ensures that he's

842
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: under team control for the next seven seasons. But for

843
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 1: a guy that is already at twenty four turning twenty

844
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 1: five next August, you have him already under control throughout

845
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:24,800
Speaker 1: his entire twenties, through what you expect to be the

846
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 1: prime years of his career. And if he produced pretty

847
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 1: solidly at Triple A and appears to be fully healthy

848
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 1: heading into twenty twenty, that I in considering the upside

849
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: that he brings as a player and the kind of

850
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 1: adjustments that he's made in the Marlins organization, with his

851
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 1: swing doing all the right things, I don't know why

852
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 1: he should be ruled out as an opening day option.

853
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 1: With all the potential that he has, and with this

854
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:55,479
Speaker 1: clear question mark that the Marlins have in center field,

855
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:58,720
Speaker 1: he seems best suited to be the one that steps

856
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: into that role. If not an opening day then very

857
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 1: soon afterwards. A lot of moving parts and it's a

858
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:10,319
Speaker 1: very good problem to have for the Marlins. Circling back

859
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 1: to Dickerson before we move on to our final segment,

860
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 1: I was pretty clear that my preference was for Yasio Pligue,

861
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,959
Speaker 1: who will have to find out ultimately how much money

862
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 1: he does get on the market, because for this Marlins team,

863
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 1: the ideal fit was a player that could be had

864
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 1: for a two year deal or less so as to

865
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 1: not limit their future financial flexibility, so as to make

866
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: that player tradable in the event that their young outfielders

867
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 1: do prove themselves worthy of filling in for the playing

868
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 1: time that they have in the outfield, and all indications

869
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 1: were that Pligue could be had on a two year deal.

870
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 1: We saw the money that obviously El Garcia got, We

871
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 1: saw the money that Cole Calhoun got and now Corey

872
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:59,320
Speaker 1: Dickerson that two years. All these players fit in a

873
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 1: very similar bucket, being in or near the prime of

874
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 1: their careers with some warts that made them not as

875
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 1: desirable on long term deals, but they seemingly had the

876
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 1: leverage to ask for a multi year deal, and if

877
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 1: Puigue was available at a similar price to Dickerson, I

878
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 1: still think that was the right move. The reporting from

879
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 1: Craigmish is that Puigue wasn't ready to sign a deal yet,

880
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 1: that there was some sort of hold up in him

881
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: choosing a team, and the Marlins wanted some certainty heading

882
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,479
Speaker 1: into the new year, And that's totally fine. That's really

883
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 1: understandable because they had all these at bats to fill

884
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 1: and it would have not been an adequate resolution to

885
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 1: me if they headed into the new year with Princeton

886
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 1: and Sierra and Matt Kemp as the guys that were

887
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 1: angling for playing time at the major league level. All

888
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 1: those guys have a lot to prove during the spring

889
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: and should not have been presumed as a surefire productive

890
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,440
Speaker 1: major leaguer. In Dickerson, they got a guy that you

891
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 1: can definitely trust to be a solid bat and to

892
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,799
Speaker 1: relay some good habits to the rest of the team.

893
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 1: But with Puigue, he's a little bit younger than Dickerson

894
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 1: by a year and a half. He also has a

895
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: pretty consistent offensive track record, consistently above league average by

896
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 1: weighted runs created plus for the question marks about Dickerson's defense,

897
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,799
Speaker 1: Puigue did not rate all that well defensively either as

898
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:33,239
Speaker 1: a corner outfielder the past few years, but he does

899
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:37,399
Speaker 1: consistently provide value with his throwing arm, So that's one

900
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 1: tangible tool that he brings defensively, whereas Dickerson doesn't. We're

901
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 1: trying to just get a vague read on his instincts

902
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 1: in his first step. Puigue has that arm strength and

903
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 1: he has that overall athleticism that is greater than Dickerson's

904
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 1: to make you believe that he could age pretty respectably

905
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 1: as an outfielder over the next couple of years. Just

906
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 1: like Dickerson, Pligue has some of dry stretches as an

907
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 1: offensive player. With Dickerson, he was an All Star in

908
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, but he got to the end of the

909
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 1: year and the reason why he was traded from the

910
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: Rays coming off an All Star year is because his

911
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:15,040
Speaker 1: second half was terrible. He got into a really deep

912
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 1: funk during that year and just was not a significant

913
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:22,399
Speaker 1: player on their team towards the end of the year.

914
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 1: Pleigue had some streakiness in him as well, especially at

915
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 1: the start of the twenty nineteen season with the Reds.

916
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 1: That team got off to a disappointing start and Puleigue

917
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 1: was a guy in the middle of that who was

918
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: not hitting as he was expected to for that team.

919
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 1: Got traded to the Indians at mid season and overall

920
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 1: put up decent numbers, but he didn't hit for power.

921
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 1: It was a really weird power draft where he only

922
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 1: hit a couple home runs over the final couple months

923
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:51,359
Speaker 1: heading into free agency. So that's a that's an understandable

924
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: red flag that the Marlins may have had about Puigue.

925
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 1: There is no knock on Dickerson, but Puligue was the

926
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 1: guy that would have resonated with the fans more, not

927
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:04,240
Speaker 1: just because he's Cuban, but because of his really energetic

928
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: playing style, how expressive he is off the field speaking

929
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:10,920
Speaker 1: as reporters and also on social media. He's one of

930
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 1: the best follows on Instagram. You can follow Corey Dickerson

931
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: on Instagram too, at Corey Dickerson, it's a lot more

932
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:22,320
Speaker 1: mild and not updated quite as frequently. A Pleague was

933
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 1: a marketing dream, even as someone that is as some

934
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:32,240
Speaker 1: inconsistency in has passed. He is a very similar player

935
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 1: to Dickerson in the past few years and some of

936
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 1: the same limitations as well. If he could have been

937
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 1: had on a similar deal, even if it caused him

938
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 1: to wait an extra few days, I think that would

939
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 1: have been worth it, And until we find out exactly

940
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 1: what we get, this will be a very interesting what

941
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 1: if with the Marlins offseason as we enter twenty twenty,

942
00:53:56,560 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 1: I have three big New Year's resolutions for the Miami Marlins.

943
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 1: Full disclosure. The original list that I was making out

944
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 1: for this had four resolutions, and the first one was

945
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 1: do what it takes to sign Plague. But it's pretty

946
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,360
Speaker 1: clear at this point that the Marlins have gone with

947
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:18,319
Speaker 1: an alternative at that position, so focusing on the other three.

948
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:22,239
Speaker 1: I want to see more aggressive base running for the

949
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 1: Marlins in the Majors next year. Among the bottom in

950
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 1: the Majors in stolen bases last year, stolen based attempts,

951
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 1: stolen base efficiency, taking the extra base on balls, and

952
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 1: play Towards the end of the year, John Birdie and

953
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 1: Magnari Sierra were all on their own trying to lift

954
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 1: up the team into respectability in those departments. But overall

955
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 1: it was disappointing last year because that was a team

956
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 1: that entering spring training I remember very distinctly Don Maddingly

957
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 1: really emphasizing that they were going to be more aggressive

958
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 1: on the bases and make the things happened because of

959
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,880
Speaker 1: some limitations that they thought they had in the power department,

960
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: and they didn't follow through on that. They had good

961
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: athletes like Harold Ramirez and Jorge al Farro, even Brian Anderson,

962
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 1: guys that were underutilized on the bases that were either

963
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 1: conservative or they were being sent in very awkward situations.

964
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 1: It was a disappointing part of the team in twenty nineteen,

965
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: I think contributed a little bit to why they were

966
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: worse in the standings than they had been the previous

967
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 1: year despite having comparable talent. And that's an inefficiency that

968
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:39,360
Speaker 1: they should be able to take advantage of with this

969
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 1: personnel moving forward. Secondly, the Marlins should lean on their kids.

970
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 1: Here are some names on their forty man roster. Edward Cabrera,

971
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:56,560
Speaker 1: George Guzband, Jordan Holloway, Umberto Mahea, six Do Sanchez, Nick Knighter,

972
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 1: Jazz Chisholm, Lewin Diaz, Monte Harrison, Heyes sous Sanchez, All

973
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,760
Speaker 1: these guys that don't have any major league regular season experience,

974
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 1: yet a couple of them that pretty clearly will be

975
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:13,480
Speaker 1: kept in the minors throughout twenty twenty as a necessary

976
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:16,359
Speaker 1: step in their development. In most of those cases, though,

977
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:19,800
Speaker 1: if those guys will be in the high minor league levels,

978
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:22,800
Speaker 1: if they perform well, if they show the traits that

979
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 1: should translate to major league success, then just bring them

980
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:31,480
Speaker 1: up when the opportunity presents itself. As much as we

981
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:33,359
Speaker 1: like some of the veteran additions that the team made

982
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:36,239
Speaker 1: this year, those guys could also be trade candidates coming

983
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 1: up towards the middle of the season. If some of

984
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:41,839
Speaker 1: these top prospects show themselves to be ready, we are

985
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 1: past the point where this team leans on organizational fillers

986
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:50,239
Speaker 1: so to not so subtly tank and help their draft

987
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 1: position and maximize their international free agent budget. I mean,

988
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 1: those things are important, the draft and international free agency,

989
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 1: but the most successful teams are able to acquire good

990
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:04,839
Speaker 1: talent there without losing at the major league level at

991
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:07,800
Speaker 1: an epic rade. Realistically, we know this team is not

992
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,360
Speaker 1: gonna be contending for a playoff spot. It would be

993
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 1: fairly surprising if they finished anywhere but fifth in a

994
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: very loaded National League East Division. But there needs to

995
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 1: be this intermediate leap from where they were, from fifty

996
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:25,800
Speaker 1: five wins to seventy wins somewhere in that ballpark. I

997
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 1: think that's a realistic goal considering the moves they made

998
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:31,040
Speaker 1: and the talent that they have at these high minor

999
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 1: league levels. It's not all about suppressing service time and

1000
00:57:36,880 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 1: pushing things over towards a when you think you can contend,

1001
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 1: because it's not realistic to turn into a contender overnight.

1002
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 1: It has to be this gradual progression, and this is

1003
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:50,120
Speaker 1: the year where they take a pretty big leap forward,

1004
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 1: and if it all goes well, then all of a sudden,

1005
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 1: you look at twenty twenty one as a real opening

1006
00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:59,000
Speaker 1: to their competitive window. You can't look at it at

1007
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 1: that opening until you bring some of these prospects up

1008
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: to the majors and you see them succeed. They have

1009
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:08,280
Speaker 1: several guys in this group that I expect to be

1010
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: very viable big leaguers as soon as the twenty twenty season,

1011
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 1: and when injuries come up and when you have opportunities

1012
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:21,280
Speaker 1: to move the short term veterans to other surroundings and

1013
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 1: open up playing time, the Marlins should do that. They

1014
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 1: should give them their fans a very clear look at

1015
00:58:27,240 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: the future, namely being guys that are ready to produce

1016
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 1: in the present. And if you really believe in all

1017
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 1: this high caliber talent that they acquired in this farm

1018
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,600
Speaker 1: system that is being widely regarded as an elite farm

1019
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 1: system in Major League Baseball, then there comes a point

1020
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 1: where you need to test these players in the big

1021
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 1: leagues and give your fans a reason to have confidence

1022
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 1: in the future. My final twenty twenty resolution for the

1023
00:58:56,760 --> 00:59:02,120
Speaker 1: Marlins is advocating for one particular move. Extend Brian Anderson

1024
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 1: at some point this coming year. Work out a long

1025
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 1: term deal with a homegrown player that has already established

1026
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 1: himself as a big part of your solution. Had a

1027
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:14,400
Speaker 1: very good rookie year, he took steps forward from that

1028
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. Plus defense, good raw power, good discipline.

1029
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 1: He has all the potential to continue improving these next

1030
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:25,760
Speaker 1: couple of years into one of the better well rounded

1031
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 1: players on a contending team, and they have control over

1032
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 1: him for the next one, two, three, four years if

1033
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 1: you include twenty twenty. But a key for this Marlins

1034
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:40,920
Speaker 1: team moving forward, They're always going to be cost conscious,

1035
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 1: even when the new TV deal comes in, even if

1036
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,520
Speaker 1: they get naming rise for the ballpark, this is never

1037
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:49,480
Speaker 1: going to be the highest salaried team in the sport.

1038
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 1: They're always going to have to have some efficiency in

1039
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 1: building their team, and part of that is making sure

1040
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 1: when you develop a good homegrown player, that you keep

1041
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 1: that player throughout it prime years, and you do it

1042
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 1: at what is a very acceptable rate, something that allows

1043
01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:10,959
Speaker 1: you to further compliment that player on your roster. Looking forward,

1044
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 1: the Marlins have been able to improve their team without

1045
01:00:14,400 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 1: affecting their long term financial flexibility at all. There is

1046
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 1: nothing on the books for them in twenty twenty two

1047
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:25,200
Speaker 1: and beyond. This is a nice place to start with Anderson,

1048
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 1: making sure to lock him up before he shows his

1049
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 1: full potential, because at that point then the temptation to

1050
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 1: reach free agency and the asking price on an extension

1051
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 1: only goes up. As Anderson continues to establish himself as

1052
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 1: a high quality regular player, this is to me the

1053
01:00:44,680 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: pretty obvious move to make in building this team. They

1054
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:51,360
Speaker 1: did it with Christian Yelich. When Yelich came up to

1055
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 1: the majors very early in his career, showed some natural

1056
01:00:55,240 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 1: offensive talent, they gave him a seven year extension. And

1057
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:03,080
Speaker 1: perhaps it's not on the card for Anderson, considering that

1058
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 1: his ascension to the majors came a little bit later

1059
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:09,200
Speaker 1: in life. Maybe that's not necessary. But buying out the

1060
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 1: arbitration years one or two in free agency, giving themselves

1061
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:16,600
Speaker 1: a club option at the end of it, this is

1062
01:01:16,600 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 1: a guy that will certainly be earning an excess of twelve,

1063
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 1: maybe even fifteen million dollars a year if you're valuing

1064
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:27,240
Speaker 1: his free agent years right now. But that's very manageable

1065
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 1: considering the trajectory that this player is on, someone that

1066
01:01:31,920 --> 01:01:35,920
Speaker 1: I think every fan in the Marlins fan base is appreciating.

1067
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:39,160
Speaker 1: They appreciate what he brings in all these different facets

1068
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 1: of the game, doing all the right things, speaking publicly

1069
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:47,240
Speaker 1: to the media and off the field. He's someone that's

1070
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 1: part of this core for sure, at a time where

1071
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 1: there's still a lot to be decided about who's a

1072
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 1: real keeper in this Marlins organization, Anderson is one of them.

1073
01:01:57,360 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 1: Payba and can you and continue solidifying what this Marlins

1074
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:07,200
Speaker 1: team is going to look like into a new and

1075
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:12,320
Speaker 1: promising decade. What are your New Year's resolutions for the Marlins?

1076
01:02:12,560 --> 01:02:15,919
Speaker 1: Anything within their control that you think needs to happen

1077
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:17,840
Speaker 1: this coming year in order to set up the team

1078
01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:21,120
Speaker 1: for long term success or do right by their fans.

1079
01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:24,160
Speaker 1: Make sure to let us know on fishtripes dot com,

1080
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 1: in the comments of the articles, or on social media

1081
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:32,040
Speaker 1: at fish Stripes on Twitter and Instagram. What are you

1082
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 1: looking forward to this coming year for what the team

1083
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:38,080
Speaker 1: can continue to do and heading in the right direction.

1084
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 1: I'm anxious to hear what you say and looking forward

1085
01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 1: to continuing fish Bites into twenty twenty. This is Eli Susman,

1086
01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 1: Go Fish