1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to talk 7 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: a little bit about the reopening trade. Um, what it's 8 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: like if you operate restaurants, especially around business areas, and 9 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: how difficult it can be to hire employees. For that, 10 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 1: we go to Jim Hyatt. He is the CEO of 11 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: California Pizza Kitchen. I know well because, Um, when I 12 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,599 Speaker 1: worked at seven thirty one Lexington Avenue, there was one 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: around the corner that I went to all the time. Um, Jim, 14 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: what's what's it like now after the most unprecedented business 15 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: event in our history? UM, I think it's safe to 16 00:00:55,800 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 1: say that, right, what's it like reopening your restaurants around then? Dream? Well, 17 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: come on and tell you. Yeah, it's kind of a 18 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: one two punch, right. I mean, covid UH gave us 19 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: an unprecedented challenge, clearly, and I think everybody's recovering through that. 20 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: I know, we're happy with how we're bouncing through that 21 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: and coming on the other side. But now you have 22 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: the staffing, which clearly is a struggle for the industry, 23 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: and it's a little different challenge maybe by state, so 24 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 1: they're not all equal in a way, but you know, 25 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: we're all weather through that too. It's got two or 26 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: three months probably and then it will calm down. But uh, 27 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: you know, the restaurant business is tough. Will but tell 28 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: us what the staffing is, like, I mean, is it 29 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: is it just too difficult to find people that are 30 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: willing to come in? Are they getting paid too much 31 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: to stay on unemployment benefits? Are the health concern still 32 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: holding you back? What's the staffing issue? Well, it's clearly 33 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: the money is keeping people on the sidelines a bit, right, 34 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: kind of a self self inflicted process there, I think, 35 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: kind of an unforced error maybe, but we've how to 36 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: deal with it, and each state is a little different. 37 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: We do have markets where we're fine. Um, we have 38 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: markets where when school let out, we got some servers back, right, 39 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: some of the college servers that we normally would employ 40 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: in our restaurants have come back to work with us 41 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 1: because uh, they enjoy where they are, and then others 42 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: where we have had to move people around frankly to 43 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: make sure we're covering shifts and taking care of consumers, 44 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: but it hasn't disrupted our operations by the time of 45 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: time of service or the times that we operate so 46 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: so far, I think c p K has weathered that 47 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 1: pretty well. But I think our starting point was really 48 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: pretty good. We're usually better than all the industry norms 49 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:44,239 Speaker 1: on our retention numbers, so we maybe had a better 50 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: starting place than some of our restaurant friends. Hey, Jim, 51 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: I'd love to get a sense. I know you guys 52 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: are you know, all over the place kind of the 53 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: regional side of the demand side of your business, and 54 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 1: we're in terms of you know, customer flow. Where are 55 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 1: you seeing to their strength and maybe where's it lagging 56 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: a little bit? Well, we were lagging a little bit 57 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: in California obviously because the restrictions. You know, we only 58 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 1: got our dining rooms back to kind of an unrestricted 59 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: level um last week actually, so that was a big 60 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: plus for us. And when you have the high number 61 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: of our the high percentage of restaurants that we have 62 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: in the state of California. That was a challenge for us, 63 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: but we were fine and we're you know, we're over 64 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: our dred percent of nineteen sales and fighting to you know, 65 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: have good staffing where we need to operate. But uh, 66 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: it's clearly a tough environment right now, and that one 67 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: to punch that we kind of talked about earlier. But uh, 68 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna be fine. The restaurant industry is 69 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: gonna be fine. Will weather our way through this, and 70 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: we always have The restaurant space is not an easy space, 71 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: so it's no place for the timid. But what about pricing, Um, 72 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: we've been reporting lately that food prices are at a 73 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: ten year high. Uh do you see that in your 74 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: input costs? Are you able to pass that through the consumers? Well, 75 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 1: we actually haven't passed it on the consumers in in 76 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: a three year trend. We're really behind I think the 77 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: norm out there. Of the price increasing that we've we've 78 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: seen with our competitors, we feel like it's a very 79 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: difficult time to push that price along. Now, you know, 80 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: commodities are coming through the back door at a higher level, 81 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: so we have to obviously respect that. But We're not 82 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: an industry or a brand that's dependent on one one item, 83 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 1: and we're pretty blended on the menu. We're not you know, 84 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 1: overly dependent on chicken or overly dependent on beef, or 85 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: overly dependent when corn goes crazy. So we have a 86 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: very balanced menu and similar to what we're trying to 87 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: do now, we're launching even a new product, and we 88 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 1: haven't had any issues sourcing our products. We've had a 89 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: substitution here there because suppliers are challenged with staffing, which 90 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: is the effect again on the industry. But whether we're 91 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: delivering a new product now I like chickpea crusts, or 92 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: whether it's the old staples of our menu ingredients we've 93 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: actually whether that finds so far, we're you know, look, 94 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: pricing is gonna come. Chicken look like it started to 95 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: come down maybe today, even a little lower price. But 96 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: on the other side, we're waiting on the fuel costs 97 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: to go back up, right, We're waiting at that price 98 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: to come back. Is it okay? Is it socially acceptable 99 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: for me to eat pineapple on my pizza? I love 100 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: a pizza Hawaii and people say it's a well, well, 101 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: you know what we find with innovation, which is what 102 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: we do. We bring innovation to the market. That's chickpea, 103 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: which we're inducing now. It's on top of our cauliflower 104 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 1: crust uh that we introduced in and it's on top 105 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: of my favorites and other customers favorites. I get emails, 106 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 1: you know, all week long from customers when are you 107 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: going to bring back something, something, something, And we try 108 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 1: to do that. But it's about innovation and everybody. It's 109 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: a little twist whether you want pineapple on yours or 110 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: whether you want a plant based chicken product all right 111 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: on your barbecue chicken substitution. Yeah, all right, Jim, thanks 112 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: so much. Jim high a California pizza kitchen. I'm a 113 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 1: big fan of their Monterey, California store. It's good stuff 114 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: down there. All right. We are going to talk right 115 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: now to Tyler Cowen about his piece on what his 116 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: crypto friends get wrong. Tyler, I absolutely love this piece 117 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: and I've been I'm talking about it all day long, 118 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 1: especially for your take on um bitcoin versus the dollar, 119 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: or really bitcoin versus smaller poorer rivals of the dollar. 120 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: But let's talk first about the price move. What do 121 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 1: you make of the drop alo thirty dollars. I don't 122 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: think any day today move in the price of crypto 123 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 1: means very much. We need to set it aside and 124 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: think about the longer term. I do absolutely think crypto 125 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: is here to stay. But the exaggerated claims I or 126 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 1: from crypto advocates like the US will go bankrupt, the 127 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: dollar will disappear. I just think all that is flat wrong. 128 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: Crypto will become a normal asset that will be great, 129 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: It will have its place under the sun. But we 130 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: should start thinking about it that way. So, Tyler, as 131 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: it relates to bitcoin per se, since that's the one 132 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: in the in the news today, do you buy the 133 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: argument or do you understand it or believe the argument 134 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: that it is a store of value all our gold. 135 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: It is a store of value, But it and other 136 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 1: crypto assets are also ways of pulling off a particular 137 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: kind of decentralized transaction that we can't do with any 138 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: other kind of asset, And we just don't know right 139 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: now how valuable that set of transactions will be in 140 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: the future. So it's like looking at a startup that's 141 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: priced every day in the market. Uh, the price is 142 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: incredibly volatile. It will be volatile for some while, but 143 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: at some point we'll figure out what it's worth, and 144 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: then it will still go up and down, but it 145 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: will be like you Facebook stock. Another asset you point out. 146 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: The piece that really hit home for me was that 147 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: you say, if anything, crypto is more likely to hurt 148 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: currencies of countries that are doing poorly, like Venezuela. Fiat 149 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: currency won't just go away, so over the long run, 150 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: crypto could actually boost the value of the dollar by 151 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: stifling the rise of potential competitors. This is the point 152 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: that Mike McGlone has been making for a while as well, 153 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: Um from Bloomberg Intelligence, and I noticed today that Mark 154 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 1: Hudmore was talking about the implications of the feds hawkish 155 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 1: turn saying that it permits other central banks to be 156 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: slightly more hawkish, even propels some in that direction, and 157 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: the marginal move toward liquid tighter liquidity globally is basically 158 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: going to hurt things like cryptos and meme stocks. What 159 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: do you what do you make of that that the 160 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: US is the world's strongest country. The more the internet 161 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 1: in the English slang which spread that actually helps the 162 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: relative soft power of the United States. Our government collects 163 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 1: taxes in terms of dollars, that really is not going 164 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 1: to change. So there's just no reason to bet against 165 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: the dollar. But if you're a small country or your 166 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: currency is if the crypto is a real competitor. So 167 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: you could imagine some kind of future world where the 168 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: dollar is still the central reserve currency, but some form 169 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: of crypto is another central form of currency for other purposes, 170 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: such as putting off these particular kinds of decentralized transactions, 171 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: and that makes the dollar in crypto the big winners. Uh. 172 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: Why why do you think China's cracking down, or at 173 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: least it looks like they are. I'm never sure any 174 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 1: outsider understands China. Uh, it seems to me they view 175 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: it as an alternative power center, as a way that 176 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: people can evade their capital controls get money out of 177 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: the country. Now, in the past, the CCP has been, 178 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: in fact the promulgator of those uses of crypto. But 179 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: at some point maybe power has become so centralized in 180 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: the CCP that they want to put an end to this, 181 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 1: just as they are checking the power of their national 182 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: tech companies. But I would say, we don't know, Tyler. 183 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: So if if for those that want a less volatile 184 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: crypto space is it's is the recommendation. Where is the 185 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: thought It'll just take time, we will get weight. It 186 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: will take time. It's not coming next week. I don't 187 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 1: even think it's coming next year. But at some point 188 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 1: there will be a shakeout and we will either figure 189 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: out exactly what we can use crypto for or decide 190 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: those uses won't work. And uh, it will be more stable. Yes, 191 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: And I mean your point is that's something to celebrate, right. 192 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: I mean, when we get to a point where Bitcoin 193 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: is rising only a few percent per year, that's actually 194 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: a good thing. Yes, it's not the utopian dreams of 195 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 1: many crypto backers, but crypto in some sense needs to 196 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: be normalized to survive. Most of our world is normal, 197 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 1: whether we like it or not. Our policymakers and sistunt 198 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: things being normal enough. They can whack crypto down in 199 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 1: a number of ways. And I think it's more likely 200 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: crypto will become another asset. That's fine. Hey, Tyler, thanks 201 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: so much for coming on and really appreciate getting your 202 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: perspective on this new asset class. I think investors are 203 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: really trying to get their arms around uh. And we 204 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: love bringing in formed opinion. To get some color on that, 205 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: Tyler cow and Bloomberg opinion calumnists for Bloomberg News. You 206 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 1: can read Tyler's work on all the Bloomberg opinion stuff 207 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,079 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg dot Com, slash Opinion or OPI I n 208 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:44,839 Speaker 1: go on the terminal. I saw and I thought a 209 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: fascinating story yesterday evening Goldman Sachs sees five point five 210 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:55,439 Speaker 1: trillion dollars of cash sitting on the sidelines. A team 211 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: led by David cost In, the strategists there said that 212 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: they expect five hundred billion dollars to go back into 213 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: US stocks through year end, and a huge portion of 214 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: that is expected to be in corporate buybacks. I want 215 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: to bring in Lyle Heim body get his outlook. He 216 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 1: is a co founder of Granted Group Advisors out of Wilton, Connecticut, 217 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 1: and Lyle just I just thought it was interesting. You know, 218 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 1: there's there's at least one reason we could see stocks 219 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: and continue to rise this year. What do you see 220 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: in terms of an assent P five hundred outlook, Well, 221 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: we're looking right now the you know, just to give 222 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: a little context, the way we look at the world 223 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: is that you know, if you look at the historical 224 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: average of fifteen times earnings the PU ratio, that's what 225 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: it was for thirty years. But in the last ten years, 226 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: with interest rates going down the way they have, the 227 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: historical averages now eighteen, with the market trading right now 228 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: at around twenty times of price to earnings ratio, we 229 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 1: feel the markets are at least in the short term, 230 00:12:56,160 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: you know, fairly valued. You know. The real apprehension, uh 231 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: for us, at least here in the short term, is 232 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: that when you have you know, higher rates and higher 233 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: oil and higher taxes, that not necessarily a recipe for 234 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: a higher market, especially when you're treading at a But 235 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: I would say it fully that I don't think we're 236 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: you know, we're cheap, but I don't think we're expensive either, 237 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 1: So I think, you know, you know, the average target 238 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: on my first call system says the SMPS, you know, 239 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:32,559 Speaker 1: the wall streets, looking for forty seven eight or something 240 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: like that in that range, which is about higher from here. 241 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: You know, I'm we're going to disagree with that. We 242 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,439 Speaker 1: think that's a that's a bit high for a year 243 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: end target, and I think it'll I would think if 244 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 1: we get to that would that would be really a 245 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: little bit of a stretch. But on the other hand, 246 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: if we have any type of pullback, which we expect 247 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 1: in the short term of five or tem percent, that 248 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: also present a buying opportunity. The first thing we have 249 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 1: to do has upgrade you from a first call to 250 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg will take care of that. Lyle, give us 251 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: a sense here, you know, there's a big debate in 252 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: the market. You know, do I stick with some of 253 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: these big growth names that've worked so well for me 254 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: over the really the last decade or so. Where do I, 255 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: you know, go with that rotation trade that has in 256 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: fact been working kind of reflation trade into some more 257 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: cyclical names, perhaps some you know the banks and think 258 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 1: things like that. What's your view, Yeah, I think that's 259 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: a great cause. When I was when I was speaking 260 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: with your eyes in the fall, you know, before Fier 261 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: came out with the vaccine, we were very bullish and 262 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: I was out emphatically pounding the table on energy, the 263 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: cyclicles and midcab value. I actually said that on in November. 264 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: I still think that's a pretty good play, and just 265 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: realized they've had a tremendous, tremendous move so I think 266 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: some of those names will continue to do well. I 267 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: still think because of we still think in straights a're 268 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: gonna go up slightly. I don't think anyone thinks that 269 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: we're going to go to three percent, but you know, 270 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: two percent seems to be the consensus on the tenure. 271 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: So I would think, you know, the banks and anything 272 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: that's interest rates sensatives should do pretty well. You know, 273 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: JP Morgan's had to pull back, but a big pullback. 274 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 1: I think, you know, cyclical stocks like Disney, UM, they'll 275 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: have some room on the upside because it's pulled back 276 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: from the high of two oh three. I think, you know, 277 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: those those are really pretty good names UH that I 278 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: would stick with in the short and the long term. 279 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 1: Woud it's got thirty seconds here? Um, Why are um 280 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: UH Pooled employer plans the hot topic in the thora 281 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 1: one K world? Well, that's that's that's another great topic. 282 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: You know. Pooled employer plans are essentially a bunch of 283 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: foreign case inside of one big foreign k. And what 284 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: in the purpose of these UH vehicles is not only 285 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: to reduce cost a little bit, but the big advantage 286 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: to the especially to the small employers that don't have 287 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: investment committees and it's usually a an owner or a 288 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: or a CEO, you know, signing papers that he doesn't 289 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: realize that he's signing, but they take on a lile 290 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: liability when someone goes into a PAP. So the g 291 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: G fore PEP is a turn where we can go 292 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: and where someone come in and say, you know, we're 293 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: going to absolve themselves from investment traduci ree responsibility and 294 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 1: operational producer responsibility. All they have to do is upload cable. Lyle, 295 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: thank you so much. We have to leave it there 296 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: just because the time we appreciate that. Lyle Hindball, co 297 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: founder granted Group Advisors. I think man, I represent a 298 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: small part of the population here that sees a little 299 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: bit of a silver lining um in the pandemic and 300 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 1: that maybe we've you know, upped our exercise game a 301 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: little bit. For me, I kind of got on this 302 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: peloton thing, um, and I'm actually exercising for the first 303 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 1: time and I can't even remember how long. So I 304 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: suspect there's some others out there like that that are 305 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: doing that as well as as you take a look 306 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: at something in the other direction, you have Yeah, I've 307 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: been um you know, testing out the amount of beers 308 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: per day I can drink and how many Netflix shows 309 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: I can watch. And he's a good place for the 310 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: for the beer part. All right, let's bring an afrom 311 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: almacas he's a CEO of Climber, uh and talk to 312 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 1: us about kind of just the exercise business, what the 313 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 1: trends are where we go from here. Averm, thanks so 314 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: much for joining us here. I love for you to 315 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,920 Speaker 1: just kind of give us a thirty thousand over foot 316 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: overview of Climber. What are you guys doing? Thank you 317 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 1: for having me. First of all, Climber is a connected 318 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: fitness company, I mean so much like you you reference Peloton, 319 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: where it's kind of a community base that's got a screen. 320 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,679 Speaker 1: The most important difference is that we use uh, you know, 321 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 1: kind of this vertical climbing modality which is really safe 322 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: and efficient for the body versus you know, sitting down 323 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: on a traditional exercise fike or rower. And so that's 324 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,239 Speaker 1: that's really the core difference between what we're doing at 325 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: Climber and kind of a lot of the things in 326 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,679 Speaker 1: the marketplace today. Hang on so it's a machine that 327 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: I could order to my home and like Paul does 328 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: with his peloton. I could because for me, briding a 329 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: bike is just super boring. But I love climbing. So 330 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:08,719 Speaker 1: is that is that what we're talking about? Yeah? Yeah, so, 331 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, my, my, the reason why I 332 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: started this was I never could understand why we as 333 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,160 Speaker 1: a society we're sitting down to workout right, because most 334 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 1: of us will have stand up desk now, and you know, 335 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: different things like that. So it's just a different motion 336 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: where you know, you're kind of using your body's primal 337 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 1: crawling movement um rather than you know, sitting down and 338 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 1: and and doing a bicycle or a row or something 339 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: like that. So it really just starts with that difference 340 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 1: in modality um and and then it's all about the 341 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 1: community and the engagement and and all of that. Great 342 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 1: about so ever, give us a sense of kind of 343 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 1: how your business was impacted by the pandemic. We've heard 344 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 1: stories from again the Pelotons of the world where they 345 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: just had a surgeon demand talked to us about your business. Yeah, 346 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: Trium into some amount of demand. I think, you know, 347 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 1: Americans and and really everyone around the world has kind 348 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 1: of looked internally as a result of this pandemic and said, gosh, 349 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: you know, health and wellness and fitness or are just 350 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 1: so important and so uh we've also been beneficiaries of that. UM. Interestingly, 351 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: we we see a lot of people returning to gym's right, 352 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: and we see a lot of people looking for that 353 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 1: kind of community based environment where they're almost like a 354 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: congregation of sorts, you know, kind of getting together to 355 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: work out. And so uh, we do have kind of 356 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: a business to business side of our of of climber 357 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 1: as well, kind of in support of those those uh, 358 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: commercial facilities. You know. The interesting thing I was talking 359 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: to the guy who runs Future, which is UM, which 360 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,719 Speaker 1: is a training It's like a trainer that you use 361 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: via FaceTime basically UM, and he said, there were a 362 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 1: lot of people who got on a peloton are got 363 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: climbers during the lockdown, but there were also a ton 364 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: of people who put on like the Freshman fifteen all 365 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: over again. I'm one of those people. UM. Are you 366 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 1: seeing more as as we need to re emerge into society, 367 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: you know, possibly in a bathing suit since it's summer. 368 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: Are are you seeing more and more people order your 369 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: machines or or or is it going the other way, 370 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: you know, because we can go outside. It's you know, 371 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,199 Speaker 1: we're we're early days, so the demand curve here is 372 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:32,679 Speaker 1: just exponential. And so we're just thrilled that, you know 373 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: that that people are kind of you know, charging ahead 374 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: and really thinking more about you know, health and wellness. 375 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: It's just it's kind of top of mind from wearables 376 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: and kind of tracking to the diet and and and 377 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: obviously exercises is just such a big part of it. 378 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: And so um, you know, we're we're pleased to be 379 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: kind of riding that wave and and think it will continue, 380 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,080 Speaker 1: um as a result of this pandemic. All right, so 381 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 1: give us a sense of how your business, how you 382 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: think your business will do, what you may have to 383 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 1: change or adapt as the world does open up, as 384 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: people do go back to the gym's. How do you 385 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: envision that? Yeah, I mean I think, you know, frankly speaking, 386 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,719 Speaker 1: I think people will return to gym, maybe not at 387 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 1: the same rate as they were pre pandemic, right, because 388 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 1: I think people are especially nervous with like huge gym's 389 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: when we think about like you know, big big floor gyms. Um, 390 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: but I think you know, that's where we can offer 391 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 1: you know, climbing as a modality to those to those 392 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 1: businesses as as a point of differentiation and innovation to 393 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: kind of welcome people back in UM. For us, it's 394 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: really been challenging, you know as a business, UM because 395 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 1: most of our products are made in Asia, UM just 396 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: from a supply chain standpoint, So, uh, just navigating that, 397 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,199 Speaker 1: it's kind of super top of mind for us as 398 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: a business right now. Do you know? For me, I mean, 399 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 1: the machine looks awesome and I was reading reviews. Cleveland 400 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 1: Clinic says the movement can be challenging, but it's very effective. Um. 401 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 1: Uh the climber, I I think it would be sweet, 402 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: but I don't understand that the social part, Like I 403 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: just want to get on it and and work it. 404 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: But I know that Paul loves the instructors on peloton. 405 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: What's what's your social draw? What do people like to 406 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,959 Speaker 1: climb together? Yeah? So, I mean you'll see everything on 407 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 1: the machine from the instructors, right, like where you have 408 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: different different styles of instruction, right, Some people like that 409 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 1: you know, motivational type of instructor. Some people like the 410 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: more quiet, maybe music driven instructor. And so you know 411 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: the video one demand is the is the key piece, uh, 412 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 1: you know, of the overall experience, kind of the social network. 413 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 1: I climb fastest when I'm terrified. So if you have 414 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,119 Speaker 1: you know, like um, the CIA after me looking to 415 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: put a cap in me, that would that would motivate me. Alright, climber. 416 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:06,120 Speaker 1: They're really fascinating stuff. Abraham el Elmakis talking about that. 417 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,479 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 418 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever 419 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 420 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter 421 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch 422 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:25,640 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio