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Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by play MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. This is our last pre

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Speaker 1: season episode, so we're going to cover two separate segments

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Speaker 1: here to make sure that we cover everything that we

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Speaker 1: need to. First, we're going to talk with David Purdham,

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Speaker 1: a writer at ESPN Shock. David and I are going

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Speaker 1: to talk about some developments in the NFL betting markets,

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Speaker 1: notably the ripple effect that Andrew Lux's retirement caused on

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Speaker 1: some futures, and anything else notable that he's seen. After that,

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk to Adam Burke, a sports betting

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Speaker 1: writer at bangbook dot com, and we're going to run

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Speaker 1: down some of our favorite player future bets. Should be

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Speaker 1: a fun show where we cover a lot of ground

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Speaker 1: and get you ready for the start of the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: So let's get started with David Purdam. David covers pretty

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Speaker 1: much everything there is to cover about the gaming industry,

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Speaker 1: and if you're at all interested in sports betting or

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Speaker 1: really any type of gambling, then you've probably read his

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Speaker 1: work either at ESPN or the plenty of other places

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Speaker 1: that have been lucky enough to have him contribute. David,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining me today. How are you.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing great, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: So you've been covering the sports gambling arena for a while.

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Speaker 1: When's the last time you've seen a preseason event, at

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Speaker 1: least one this close to the season that shook the

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Speaker 1: betting markets like Andrew.

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Speaker 2: Luck's retirement for a great question?

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Speaker 1: Or has there been? I mean, is this really kind

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Speaker 1: of unprecedented?

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Speaker 3: It's not unprecedented because anytime you have a established starting quarterback,

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Speaker 3: let alone one of the level of Andrew Luck, it

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Speaker 3: makes a significant impact on everything. I mean, starting quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: are like starting pitchers in baseball. They are the most

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Speaker 3: valuable thing when it comes to the odds. So while

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Speaker 3: I can't think of one off the top of my head,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure that it's happened in the past. Michael Vick

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Speaker 3: hurt his leg in the preseason one year, so I'm

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Speaker 3: sure that was impactful. But anytime you have a player,

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Speaker 3: especially as a quarterback, you're going to see widespread impact,

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Speaker 3: just like we did with Luck.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk a little bit about that impact.

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Speaker 1: How did sportsbooks handle bets on the Colts? First of all,

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Speaker 1: so like, for example, I think the consensus odds for

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Speaker 1: their win total over under was nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I've seen some books have it at ten. And when

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Speaker 1: I use consensus odds, that's the bettingpros dot Com consensus

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Speaker 1: ods that takes into account a variety of sportsbooks. So

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Speaker 1: what did sportsbooks do with betters who took the over

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Speaker 1: on those bets? Are they just completely out of luck?

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Speaker 1: Did they refund their money?

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Speaker 2: They're out of luck?

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Speaker 3: Those things win season win totals are usually all bets

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Speaker 3: are action unless the team does not play the full

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Speaker 3: amount of games on their original schedule. Of course, you know,

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Speaker 3: they based their season win total odds on the schedule

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Speaker 3: that they have at that time. So if a team

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Speaker 3: was to have a game canceled or something like that,

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Speaker 3: then they would be void. But a retirement for an

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Speaker 3: individual player. It's a tough break for anybody that bet

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Speaker 3: the over and yah ten nine and a half. The

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Speaker 3: number now six and a half seven, so pretty sign

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Speaker 3: ific could.

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Speaker 1: Drop and out of curiosity, how quickly are books able

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Speaker 1: to adjust to the news. I mean, Chefter tweeted that out,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't know, nine o'clock, ten o'clock sometime

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Speaker 1: on Saturday night, is there a guy who's running in

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Speaker 1: there sees Twitter, runs in and puts down a twenty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars bet or something like that on the Colts

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Speaker 1: before they're able to react or is it like instantaneous?

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Speaker 3: There was that situation at the Borgata over in New

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Speaker 3: Jersey and Atlantic City and MGM property. They were a

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Speaker 3: little slow to react to it, and a better did

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Speaker 3: get them bet the under on the Colts at the

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Speaker 3: nine and a half wins for a couple thousand dollars

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Speaker 3: if I remember correctly, But so they that does happen,

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Speaker 3: and books are always scared of that. A lot of

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Speaker 3: these guys, you know, this was like about in Las Vegas,

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Speaker 3: was about six thirty by Saturday, right everybody's watching Florida

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Speaker 3: Miami football. A lot of the odds makers and book

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Speaker 3: as primary ones had left already. I've heard stories other

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Speaker 3: than being at dinner and getting a text and having

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Speaker 3: to you know, oh my gosh, oh my gosh, get

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Speaker 3: a hold of everybody, and they pretty much just yanked

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Speaker 3: everything to do with the NFL off the board almost instantly.

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Speaker 3: The Super Bowl odds, they are the quick fastest to update.

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Speaker 2: They can update those pretty quickly.

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Speaker 3: The pool size of money that's in that pool allows

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Speaker 3: them to. It's not going to kill them. If they

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Speaker 3: take a few bets, they're gonna be able to adjust.

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Speaker 3: But the point spread on the individual games, your season

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Speaker 3: win total bets, your division odds, all that stuff had

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Speaker 3: to be taken down immediately, and for the most part,

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Speaker 3: books did react, except for those couple the ones.

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Speaker 2: I mentioned at the Bergatta that was a little slow.

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Speaker 1: So do they take everything down or do they just

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Speaker 1: take things that are going to be impacted by the cults,

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Speaker 1: like the teams in the AFC South and stuff like that.

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Speaker 3: Well, they took it all down. They took it all

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Speaker 3: down to start. Like I said, the Super Bowl was

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Speaker 3: the first thing to appear. Some books in the over

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Speaker 3: in New Jersey. You had a win total up pretty quickly.

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Speaker 3: But the guys at the Westgate Super Book, who I

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Speaker 3: was talking to directly when this is all happening, They're like,

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Speaker 3: we're just take going to take it all down. We'll

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Speaker 3: leave the Super Bowl, we'll get back to tomorrow and

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Speaker 3: we'll start cleaning it up. And I think the process

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Speaker 3: of redoing something like that is kind of interesting. They

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Speaker 3: start with the individual team's power rating, so they have

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Speaker 3: a power rating on the Colts, and that power rating

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Speaker 3: is used to generate the point spreads on the games

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Speaker 3: and how many games they're favored and their probability of

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Speaker 3: winning those games. That's how they produce the season win totals.

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Speaker 3: Then they use the season win totals to predict the

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Speaker 3: division odds and the conference odds and Super Bowl odds.

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Speaker 3: So that's a little bit of a process when you're

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Speaker 3: adjusting that many things, that many teams.

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Speaker 2: So that's how they started.

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Speaker 1: And how long are the odds down? Are they able

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Speaker 1: to do all this rejiggering within a day or two?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they were up next day, but the next morning,

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Speaker 3: you know, middle afternoon for East Coast time. Most of

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Speaker 3: the books in Las Vegas were back up somewhere a

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Speaker 3: little faster than others. So it takes them as a process.

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Speaker 3: But once they get it, they you know, not only

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Speaker 3: did they have to change the Colts season win total,

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Speaker 3: well then everybody else Colts opponents season win totals needed

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Speaker 3: to be raised a little bit, whether just on the

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Speaker 3: big or even by a whole half game, and then

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Speaker 3: they AFC South opponents, well, now their odds to win

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Speaker 3: that divisions increased significantly, and so in that case, so

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Speaker 3: does their odds to win the AOC.

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Speaker 2: So they had to do all that. It took a while.

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Speaker 2: Most of them are up the next day.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a sense of how much the odds,

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Speaker 1: specifically for the AFC South teams moved after the lucks

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Speaker 1: either to win the division or they're over under win

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Speaker 1: totals or anything like that.

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Speaker 3: You know, the Colts were the favorite and odds on favorite.

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Speaker 3: They were laying money in the AFA South to win,

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Speaker 3: and then the other three teams were bunched in there,

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Speaker 3: the Texans and Tennessee. Who I'm missing the Jaguars, Jaguars,

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Speaker 3: We're all mixed in there. It completely flipped. The Colts

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Speaker 3: went from the odds on favorite to the biggest underdog

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Speaker 3: in that division, where the Texans moved up and to

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Speaker 3: the top.

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Speaker 2: They were the favorite.

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Speaker 3: Pretty some books had Jacksonville right there in Tennessee right

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Speaker 3: there in the mix two with the Textans seemed to

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Speaker 3: be the consensus favorite.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, they were.

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Speaker 3: The season win totals for their opponents would go up

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Speaker 3: and it would mainly be the juice on the over.

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Speaker 3: So if a team was, you know, eight and a

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Speaker 3: half wins and you had to put a one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty dollars to win one hundred if you wanted

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Speaker 3: to take over eight and a half wins. But now

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Speaker 3: maybe that juice went to minus win twenty five. So

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Speaker 3: they just kind of tweaked it up a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a lot of the opponents. So I thought that

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Speaker 3: was kind of interesting too to see how that all unfolded.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at the consensus odds. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Colts are the worst odds right now to win that division,

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Speaker 1: and they were the clear favorites. It's basically plus five

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Speaker 1: hundred pretty much across the board, and the Texans are

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Speaker 1: about plus one twenty five around there to win it.

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Speaker 1: And how about the Colts for the Super Bowl? I

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Speaker 1: mean they were one of the favorites, right, I mean

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Speaker 1: they must have been top six or seven in the market.

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Speaker 1: They must have dropped like a stone, right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, you know a second tier contender there. You

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Speaker 3: got the Patriots and the Chiefs and the Saints are

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Speaker 3: probably the top tier, and then the Culture right there next.

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Speaker 3: They were anywhere from twelve to fifteen to one when

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Speaker 3: the news broke. By the time it all shuffled out,

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Speaker 3: I saw him as high as sixty to one, which

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Speaker 3: is the same odds as the New York Jets. I

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Speaker 3: mean to think that the Colts, who everybody thought, you know,

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Speaker 3: were possible Super Bowl contenders, now have the same odds

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Speaker 3: as the New York Jets. That kind of tells the

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Speaker 3: story right there.

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Speaker 1: Well, I am a Jets fan, so I assume that

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Speaker 1: that means that Vegas thinks they are going to win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, because, like me, I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: the Jets obviously have this in the back. And how

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Speaker 1: about week one, you know, they're at the Chargers, and

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Speaker 1: I believe looking at it before the Luck news because

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Speaker 1: I was prepping for the season, it looked like I

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Speaker 1: believe the Chargers were favored by about three three and

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Speaker 1: a half or something like that, I assume that that

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Speaker 1: spread jumped significantly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was about three three and a half. You know,

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Speaker 3: with Luck's kind of uncertainty, get people were starting to

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Speaker 3: take that game off the board. A couple of the

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Speaker 3: books already had it down are taking any agers on

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Speaker 3: it until they were trying to figure out if Luck

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Speaker 3: was going to play or not. It was three and

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Speaker 3: a half at some of the books that did keep

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Speaker 3: it up. It jumped to as high as nine and

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Speaker 3: a half on a couple of books and then kind

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Speaker 3: of settled back at seven.

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Speaker 2: Seems like to be the number right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. I mean, again,

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Speaker 1: i've personally, I think that the Colts aren't going to

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Speaker 1: be quite as bad as people think, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think people are jumping off, but I think you know,

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Speaker 1: Brissette's been taking a lot of first team reps in

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Speaker 1: the preseason, so you know, it's a downgrade, of course,

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Speaker 1: but I think that they're going to be certainly more

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Speaker 1: than competitive and have a decent chance even to win

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Speaker 1: the division. So let's move on away from the Colts

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Speaker 1: because Luck has done enough damage basically to all the odds.

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Speaker 1: And let's talk a little bit about you know, you

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Speaker 1: follow the markets closely. What have you been seeing in

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Speaker 1: terms of betting on the Super Bowl? Is there a

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Speaker 1: team that the public seems to be all over or

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Speaker 1: anything like that.

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Speaker 3: Oh, yeah, it's probably not going to be surprising to you.

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Speaker 3: That's the Cleveland Browns. There's a lot of hype on

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Speaker 3: the Browns. The other team that's attracted a lot of

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Speaker 3: betting interest too is the Bears. I'd put those teams

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Speaker 3: right together as the most popular bets in Vegas sports books.

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Speaker 3: And you know that's by the number of bets if

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Speaker 3: you look at the amount of money, that's more on

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Speaker 3: the favorites, the Patriots and the chief But just in

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Speaker 3: terms of sheer volume of number of bets to win

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl, for example, the Browns and the Bears

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Speaker 3: are one and two in a lot of books.

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Speaker 1: So I understand the Browns, of course, because there's all

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Speaker 1: this hype and you have Mayfield. Is the Browns because

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Speaker 1: you know, you've got the young Trubisky who people think

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Speaker 1: are just going to take the next step. Or what's

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Speaker 1: really driving that?

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Speaker 3: Do you think I would say Chicago tourism to Las

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Speaker 3: Vegas during the cold winter. The Bears always seem to

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Speaker 3: get a little bit of bump of in the offseason.

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Speaker 3: I do think a lot of the Midwestern folks make

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Speaker 3: the trip to Vegas to get out of, you know,

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Speaker 3: the cold weather.

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Speaker 2: There's one oddsmaker's name is Alan Berg.

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Speaker 3: He's at Caesar's Palace and he's a huge Bears, and

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Speaker 3: he's been doing this for about fifteen years in Las Vegas,

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Speaker 3: and he says every time the Bears get to the

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Speaker 3: playoffs the next year, the betting on them is just ferocious,

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Speaker 3: just comes out from everywhere. So there's a passionate fan

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Speaker 3: base for the Bears, and anytime they see hope, they

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Speaker 3: ruin to back their team. And I'll add, you know,

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Speaker 3: the two most popular bets to win the NFL MVP

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Speaker 3: in Las Vegas also happened to be Baker Mayfield and

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Speaker 3: Mitchell Trubisky was two hundred to one at one time

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Speaker 3: at Caesars. He's all the way down to fifty to one,

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Speaker 3: even lower at some place. I believe it's all the

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Speaker 3: way down to twenty two to one, which puts even

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Speaker 3: in the same range as Tom Brady. So that's how.

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Speaker 2: Delusional I guess some of the Bears faithful are.

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Speaker 1: And again you mentioned the number of bets, So I

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Speaker 1: assume that part of what is happening here is it's

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Speaker 1: mostly the public, right. It's not the sharp betters, the

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Speaker 1: people who essentially do this for a living. This is

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Speaker 1: people who are basically public and perhaps not quite as

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Speaker 1: sophisticated as the people who do this for a living.

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Speaker 1: Is that fair to say?

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Speaker 2: Yes?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, you don't get a lot of the sharper players

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Speaker 3: betting futures in the preseason don't want to tie up

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Speaker 3: their bank roll for that long of time. They will

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Speaker 3: grab some prices during the season that they think are

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Speaker 3: you know, have some value to them that maybe they

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Speaker 3: can hedge out of a little bit if they get

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Speaker 3: to a point. But during the preseason, the bulk of

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Speaker 3: the money bet on the Super Bowl is from your

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Speaker 3: betting public.

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Speaker 1: All right, well, I think all of this, frankly, is

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Speaker 1: pretty fascinating. Let's hope for your sake that nothing really

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Speaker 1: changes between now and Week one, or maybe for your sake, Frankly,

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Speaker 1: let's hope it does so you'll have a lot more

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Speaker 1: to talk about. I'm sure luck sort of gave you

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Speaker 1: quite a bit of material to write about.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, it was a wild, wild week and there's something

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Speaker 3: mortal interesting before we go here. There always seems to

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Speaker 3: be people that have the information early, and there was

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Speaker 3: several sportsbooks that reported taking what we're limit bets at

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Speaker 3: the time, five thousand dollars limit bets on the season

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Speaker 3: win total under. In the days leading up to this

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Speaker 3: It's always amazing how they're there. Always seems to be

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Speaker 3: the betting market always seems to know a little bit

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Speaker 3: before everybody else.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: I do actually want to have one follow up on that,

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Speaker 1: because I have been wondering about it. The people who

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Speaker 1: set the odds basically are more connected, I would assume,

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Speaker 1: and know more about football, and more connected than almost

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Speaker 1: anybody else in the world. So I was a little

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Speaker 1: almost surprised that more people didn't sort of see this coming.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the people who You're a connected guy, the

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Speaker 1: people who set the odds, they must have sources everywhere,

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Speaker 1: don't they are they just people who are incredibly knowledgeable

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Speaker 1: about football.

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Speaker 2: It's always the betters. The betters know first.

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Speaker 3: The odds makers are sitting there doing the same thing

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Speaker 3: you and I are doing on Twitter, following the beat

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Speaker 3: riders just kind of keeping track. But every once in

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Speaker 3: a while they'll find a bet that's unusual. There was

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Speaker 3: one in the case like that, a five thousand dollars

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Speaker 3: limit bet on the Colts under that came out of

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Speaker 3: nowhere on that evening.

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Speaker 2: It was that Saturday night, yep, And they kind of hm,

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Speaker 2: what's going on here?

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Speaker 3: And they were kind of and they reviewed it and

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Speaker 3: stuff like that, and this happens, you know, over and

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Speaker 3: over and over whenever there is a kind of a

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Speaker 3: quiet injury that nobody hears about, and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 3: the quarterback from Akron or somebody is out. The boddsmakers

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Speaker 3: will learn from the betters, because the betters will come

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Speaker 3: up there and they'll start to go and they'll be

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Speaker 3: what's going on, and then they'll start looking around, and

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Speaker 3: some of the betters will actually try to do a

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Speaker 3: courtesy for the books, to kind of stay in the

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Speaker 3: good graces of the bookmakers and say, hey, I just

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Speaker 3: bet this because this quarterback is out. So the betters

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Speaker 3: always know before the bookmakers.

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Speaker 1: Man, it's such a fascinating market. I'm so glad that

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Speaker 1: things are it's legal now and that more states continue

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Speaker 1: to legalize sports bending, because it's really it's a fascinating industry.

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Speaker 1: I'm really jealous of the fact that you get to

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Speaker 1: cover it and have such sort of inside knowledge. So

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Speaker 1: I really really appreciate you joining me. I hope you

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Speaker 1: will come back again during the season and we can

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Speaker 1: talk more about trends that we've seen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely before we move on to our next segment. I

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Speaker 1: want to briefly mention one of our sponsors, Play MGM,

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Speaker 1: and specifically the Play MGM Sports app. As I said earlier,

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Speaker 1: this is our last preseason episode. Starting next week, we're

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Speaker 1: going to be looking at weekly spreads and money lines.

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Speaker 1: And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight

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00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 1: hundred gambler all right. Here to join me to break

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Speaker 1: down some player futures is Adam Burke. He's a sports

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Speaker 1: betting writer at bangbook dot com and host of Bang

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Speaker 1: the Book Radio. You can follow him on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: skating Tripods. Adam, thanks so much for joining me today.

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Speaker 1: How's it going go? Well?

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Speaker 4: How's everything well for you?

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Speaker 1: Not bad, buddy? So can you to be favorite and

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Speaker 1: just explain your Twitter candle here? Because on your bio

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Speaker 1: I see that it says that Corey Klueber told you

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Speaker 1: that it was great, so I need to know a

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Speaker 1: little bit more about it.

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Speaker 5: Yes, So, my Twitter handle used to be part of

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Speaker 5: a Beer League hockey team with some guys that were

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Speaker 5: actually a little bit older than me. The team has

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Speaker 5: since disbanded, but I kind of took over the name

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Speaker 5: for myself. It's my email address, it's my Twitter account.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, we were a quasi hockey team, more of

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Speaker 5: a drinking team. We had a whole lot of fun

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Speaker 5: with that, and our logo was actually a shocker for

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Speaker 5: anyone that's familiar with those. So a lot of great times,

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Speaker 5: but we were the skating tripods and the Corey Klueber thing,

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Speaker 5: the old social media guy for the Indians, did one

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Speaker 5: of those mean tweets type things.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I had.

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Speaker 5: He used one of my tweets and Corey Kluber actually

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Speaker 5: read it. It wasn't mean or anything like that, but

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Speaker 5: Corey Klueber said that I had a great Twitter handle,

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Speaker 5: So I just I guess that's my claim to fame.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's got to be like a top

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Speaker 1: five moment in life, at least it would be for me.

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Speaker 1: And I'm not even an Indians fan. I ass who

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Speaker 1: you are. You're from Cleveland.

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Speaker 5: I am a Cleveland born and bred, and you know,

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Speaker 5: it's it's a very exciting time here, not just with

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Speaker 5: the Indians and the you know, thick of the wild

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Speaker 5: card hunt and maybe the division, but especially the Cleveland Browns,

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Speaker 5: and you know how they just look like a dramatically

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Speaker 5: different team than they were a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, earlier on we had on David Burnham and he

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Speaker 1: said that the biggest bets that are coming in, uh,

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Speaker 1: generally throughout sportsbooks for the Super Bowl or on the

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Speaker 1: Browns and for MVP is of course Baker Mayfield. So

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Speaker 1: you know, at least the public's got your back. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, out of curiosity, how are you feeling about

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Speaker 1: them as somebody who's you know, a little more experienced

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Speaker 1: than the public. Are you willing to waiter some money

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Speaker 1: on them to win the Super Bowl and or for

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Speaker 1: Baker to win the MVP?

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Speaker 4: Well, I will say this.

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Speaker 5: I mean, anytime the Indians, Browns, Calves, whoever is playing

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Speaker 5: on national TV, you get that montage of all the

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Speaker 5: times that Cleveland sports have had devastating heartbreaks. So you know,

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Speaker 5: I'm a little bit jaded here. And look, I mean,

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Speaker 5: obviously I love the personnel. I think they're very, very talented.

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Speaker 5: The schedule's brutal. I mean, their schedule is not easy

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Speaker 5: at all. Whatsoever. This got to a point where they

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Speaker 5: got overhyped and now people are kind of going contrarian

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Speaker 5: kind of going.

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Speaker 4: Against them a little bit.

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Speaker 5: When I took a look at their season win total,

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Speaker 5: I think it was around it was nine wins, but

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Speaker 5: they're expected wins based on the look ahead spreads was

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Speaker 5: about eight point six wins, so I agree with that.

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Speaker 5: I kind of lean a little bit to the under

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Speaker 5: for their season win total. But obviously I'm hoping for

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Speaker 5: the best, and I'm hoping that everybody of Consequence stays

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Speaker 5: healthy because that may define the race in the AFC North.

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Speaker 1: I mean that division is always just a battle, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's the thing. The Steelers are going to be solid,

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Speaker 1: the Ravens are going to be solid. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be an interesting division for sure. But yeah, schedule is

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Speaker 1: certainly tough, so it is going to be an interesting year.

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Speaker 1: I have talked about this on earlier podcasts. I've tried

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Speaker 1: to find reasons to fade them as much as I can,

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Speaker 1: but it's difficult for me because on paper, I am

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Speaker 1: really buying exactly what they're doing.

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Speaker 2: Now.

438
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,640
Speaker 1: I don't think necessarily that they should be the overwhelming

439
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 1: you know that, you know it's public, it's the public betting.

440
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure the Sharps are not the ones who are

441
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 1: necessarily in on the Browns the whole time, but certainly

442
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 1: the public is getting there. And frankly, you know, I'm

443
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 1: not going to be all that surprised if it comes through.

444
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 1: But you, as as someone who's lived your life in

445
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 1: Cleveland sports, I'm sure are a bit more pestimistic as

446
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 1: I am. As somebody who's a Mets and a Jets fan.

447
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 1: I kind of refuse to be optimistic.

448
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 4: One of those things.

449
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 5: And look, I mean, they haven't won the division in

450
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 5: thirty years. The idea that they're favored to win the division,

451
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 5: I mean, if they don't do it, it's actually going

452
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 5: to be a disappointment. And I mean, you know, a

453
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 5: disappointing season for the Browns is one in fifteen or

454
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 5: zero to sixteen. Going five hundred should be something everyone

455
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 5: should be thrilled about. But five hundred is going to

456
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 5: be falling short this year. So at least there's that.

457
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, I used to grocery shop on

458
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 5: Sundays or you know, do whatever else other than watch

459
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 5: the games. Now it's kind of appointment television with all

460
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 5: the talent that they have, So in that respect, I'm

461
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 5: very excited to watch them. I just they're probably going

462
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 5: to need another year because they've got first time head

463
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 5: coach and Freddy Kitchens, two really good coordinators that I

464
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,959
Speaker 5: like quite a bit. But they still have to adapt

465
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 5: themselves to the personnel. So maybe a transitional year and

466
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 5: then the sky would be the limit in twenty twenty.

467
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,919
Speaker 5: If they get through this tough schedule this year and

468
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 5: look pretty good.

469
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,400
Speaker 1: At the very least, they're going to be pretty interesting,

470
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 1: all right. So let's get going here with our favorite

471
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 1: player futures. Adam and I are going to go through

472
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 1: a few of our favorites here for you, and we're

473
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,959
Speaker 1: going to be using the odds listed at Bettingpros dot com.

474
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 1: As I said earlier, that takes the consensus of the

475
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: odds that are available in the market, and it also

476
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 1: shows you the various odds that are available at a

477
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 1: few different sportsbooks. So, for example, the favorite to win

478
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 1: the MVP is Patrick Mahomes and his Betting Pros consensus

479
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 1: odds is at plus five point fifty, but the odds

480
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 1: listed at the various sportsbooks range from plus five hunds

481
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: on the low end to plus six hundred on the

482
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,199
Speaker 1: high end at Fandle, so In addition to consensus odds,

483
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 1: we've also got consensus picks and we'll have them for

484
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,400
Speaker 1: you all year each week. So like, if seventy four

485
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 1: percent of experts are taking the Browns to beat the

486
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 1: Titans laying five and a half points in Week one,

487
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,920
Speaker 1: that might be something that you want to check out.

488
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: There's a lot of good stuff over there, and after

489
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,640
Speaker 1: the show you can go ahead and look around at

490
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: all the various player props that are available that perhaps

491
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 1: Adam and I did not touch on here. All right, Adam,

492
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 1: let's get rolling. Give me one of your favorite player

493
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 1: future bets that are available.

494
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,199
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll tell you what one of them that I

495
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 5: was looking at there and using your betting pros consensus

496
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 5: line over there. And by the way, you guys are

497
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 5: doing fantastic work over there, So kudos to you for

498
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,640
Speaker 5: everything that you've been doing. I know you've got obviously

499
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,679
Speaker 5: the fantasy background, but now moving over to the sports

500
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 5: betting landscape. Congratulations to you guys for that. Thanks Juju

501
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 5: Smith Schuster at eleven to one to lead the NFL

502
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 5: in receiving yards. I mean, this one's kind of obvious

503
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:54,439
Speaker 5: when you think about it. You know, they don't have

504
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 5: Antonio Brown anymore. Antonio Brown was targeted one hundred and

505
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 5: sixty eight times last year Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger the most

506
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 5: passing attempts in the NFL last season. I get it, Juju.

507
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 5: Smith Schuster will get double coverage. He's going to get

508
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 5: a ton of attention, safety help over the top, maybe

509
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 5: some linebackers coming in under the zone, something like that.

510
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 5: But still, I mean, this guy is an elite level talent.

511
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 5: He's playing with more confidence now after last season. I

512
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 5: think he's ready to take that leap. And you know, again,

513
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 5: just based on sheer volume, you've got to like a

514
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 5: guy like Smith Schuster, who is, you know, the fourth

515
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 5: choice on the board there at eleven to one behind

516
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 5: Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham. Who's going to

517
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 5: share receptions with a guy like Jarvis Landry, with a

518
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 5: guy like David and Joku. It's hard to fight a

519
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,199
Speaker 5: lot of guys outside of James Connor that are going

520
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 5: to get targets in this offense. So Smith Schuster, just

521
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 5: based on volume alone, makes a lot of sense.

522
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's obviously without Antonio Brown, that's just

523
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: you know, an enormous amount of targets. I think it

524
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 1: was one hundred and sixty eight from last year that

525
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 1: are essentially up for grabs at this point. I don't

526
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 1: really expect the offense to look that different. In the preseason.

527
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 1: They going after Juju pretty hard when he did play.

528
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 1: So I do like that one. He is the fourth

529
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: you know, worst odds quote unquote, but I agree, I

530
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 1: think based on those odds out of curiosity, what do

531
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: you what would that number need to be for you

532
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: to say no, you know what, it's not worth it.

533
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 1: It's at plus eleven hundred. If it's at plus nine hundred,

534
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: are you in on it?

535
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I think so a plus nine hundred,

536
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 5: I think it's still worth the shot. If he's priced

537
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 5: in the DeAndre Hopkins range or you know, obviously doubt

538
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 5: price down in the Julio Jones range, then then it

539
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 5: would be a no for me. Again, he's gonna see

540
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 5: a lot of double coverage as option one, A, one B,

541
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 5: one C. I mean, he's the guy there for Pittsburgh.

542
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 5: But you know, I do think that the Steelers are

543
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 5: going to throw the football a lot, so again, a

544
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 5: lot of volume there for him.

545
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 4: Anythink double digits is good for me. You know.

546
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 5: Obviously nine to fifty or nine hundred he given up

547
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 5: a little bit of value.

548
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 4: So you know, as we always say.

549
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 5: Here in this business, make sure you're shopping around for

550
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 5: the best price too, because you may be able to

551
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 5: get twelve or thirteen to one somewhere, you know, as

552
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 5: opposed to the ten or eleven to one.

553
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 2: No.

554
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 1: Absolutely, And frankly, if you look at his odds on

555
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: Betting Pro Consensus, you can see that on fandal they

556
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: are offering it at plus twelve hundred. So that is

557
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: something where it's exactly right. You really do want to

558
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 1: shop around, and that's that's one of the things. The

559
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: consensus ods that we're using is just generally a summary

560
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 1: of what is available. But again, you should shop around.

561
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 1: Since you named a receiver, I'm going to stick with

562
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 1: a receiver here. I'm going to go with much much

563
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: worse odds than you listed it, and I'm going to

564
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 1: go with Chris Godwin to lead the league in receiving yards,

565
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,639
Speaker 1: and that's at plus ninety three hundred. So we're in

566
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,719
Speaker 1: a different stratosphere here. Ju Ju's at plus eleven hundred.

567
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 1: This is plus ninety three hundred and again shop around,

568
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,120
Speaker 1: because it's actually plus ten thousand on Fandel, So that's

569
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 1: one hundred and to twe on your money. And so

570
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: let me just name a couple of guys who have

571
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 1: the same or better odds than Chris Godwin to lead

572
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: the league in receiving. Corey Davis is also at plus

573
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 1: ninety three hundred, Sterling Shepherd is at plus eighty nine hundred.

574
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 1: Alston Jeffrey, who has not had a thousand yard season

575
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: since twenty fourteen, is at plus seventy five hundred. Now

576
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,199
Speaker 1: I get it. Mike Evans is there, of course, and

577
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: you're probably most likely gonna need Evans to miss at

578
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 1: least a Gamer two, although not necessarily because Evans is

579
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: going to take a lot of the top coverage each week.

580
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 1: So it's possible that Godwin finds room in the slot

581
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: more and Bruce Arians has basically made it clear he

582
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: is not coming off the field whatsoever. I think arians

583
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: offense is going to be really good for the passing game.

584
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 1: And when you were getting ninety three to one on

585
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 1: your money, particularly with people who are around the same odds,

586
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 1: for me, that's a good one not to put a

587
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,360
Speaker 1: ton of money on because it's ninety three to one

588
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: for a reason, I think it should be much better

589
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 1: than that. But I think that's something where you can

590
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 1: make a pretty good killing, even if you're not willing

591
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 1: to risk all that much money.

592
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think that would make sense to it.

593
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 5: Again, the obvious concern, as you mentioned, would be having

594
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 5: to share those targets with, you know, somebody like a

595
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 5: Mike Evans. But I mean Smith, Schuster and Brown were

596
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 5: sharing targets last year and both of those guys still

597
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 5: had enormous seasons. You've got a former quarterback there in

598
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 5: Byron Left, which is the offensive coordinator that can't hurt,

599
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 5: you know. And there's another guy I'm kind of looking

600
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 5: at here and another one of those long shot types

601
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 5: of prices. Not nearly as long as in ninety three

602
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 5: to one, but a Tyler Boyd at fifty six to

603
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 5: one is kind of interesting. If you lose AJ Green

604
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 5: and he's already out at least until week three, quite

605
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 5: possibly longer. Tyler Boyd with the breakout season last year.

606
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 5: Zach Taylor, the new head coach, is a quarterbacks guy

607
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 5: at heart.

608
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 4: He's gonna let this team throw.

609
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 5: Now, I don't know if it's Andy Dalton all season,

610
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 5: or if it winds up being Ryan Finley a little

611
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 5: bit too. But Tyler Boyd's a big target and a

612
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 5: guy that you know, really came into his own last

613
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 5: season when he got some opportunities. Maybe that's kind of

614
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 5: cut from the same cloth as you know, Brown and

615
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 5: Shuster were maybe a little bit of a passing of

616
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 5: the torch, so to speak to a guy like Brown,

617
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 5: I think Taylor is gonna love having that weapon. So

618
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 5: that would kind of be my longer shot there at

619
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 5: fifty six to one.

620
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like that one too. I mean, the

621
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: guys who are around them, are you know, Mike Williams

622
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: who you know that's that's almost certainly not gonna happen,

623
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 1: given the fact that Keenan Allen was there, and Hunter

624
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: Henry's there, Mcole Hartman is around there. Sammy Watkins, I mean,

625
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, there's the hill possibility, of course,

626
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 1: but I agree with you, especially with the aj Green

627
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 1: injury for at least the first three weeks is what

628
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: we're hearing. That's really a good one for sure. All Right,

629
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: So let's move on then to our next bet. What's

630
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: another one that caught your eye. Something that's offering good value.

631
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 5: Another one that caught my eye here, and this one's

632
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 5: really not that far off the beaten path, but I

633
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 5: think it's still a really good price tag. Chris Carson

634
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 5: at twenty to one to lead the league in rushing yards.

635
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 5: I mean, this is a guy that you know, he

636
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 5: missed two games last year, still wound up seventh in

637
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 5: rushing attempts. You got to figure the Seahawks offensive line

638
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 5: will be better this year. He was fourth in yards

639
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 5: per game, so not on was he getting a lot

640
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 5: of attempts, but he's moving forward. You don't get those

641
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 5: negative carries out of him. Probably a little bit less

642
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 5: of a timeshare here after proving himself last year and

643
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 5: you know, really proving himself kind of emerging from that

644
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 5: group two years ago.

645
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 4: I think this is a good one.

646
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 5: You know, I think you have to really protect Russell

647
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 5: Wilson if you want to get to the playoffs there

648
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 5: in the in the NFC West, I mean, you're going

649
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 5: to be chasing down the rams. We all expect the

650
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 5: forty nine ers to be better. Who knows what the

651
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 5: Cardinals looked like midway through the season. If Kyler Murray

652
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 5: kind of takes hold. But you know, Chris Carson. I

653
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 5: mean again, it should be an improved offensive line. And

654
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 5: much like Smith Schuster, you've got to look for volume

655
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 5: when you're looking for these yardage props. And I think

656
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 5: Carson gets a lot of rushing attempts this year. And

657
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 5: it was a guy that again just moves the pile

658
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 5: forward and he's not going to get those one and

659
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 5: two yard carries. He's gonna get three and four yard

660
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 5: carries and those had up over the course of the year.

661
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Chris Carson, and actually that leads I'll

662
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 1: name mind because I have him, but for a different future,

663
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: and that is him to have the most rushing touchdowns

664
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 1: and that's a plus sixteen hundred and it's basically for

665
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 1: almost the entire you know, you essentially took a lot

666
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 1: of the analysis, but with the touchdowns in particular, he

667
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: had nine last year that was seventh best in the league.

668
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: And that's despite playing only fourteen games. And as you said,

669
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: we know what this offense is going to be, right,

670
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are the most run heavy team in the league.

671
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: They run it about half the time. There's no reason

672
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: for that to change. Particularly given all the injuries to

673
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 1: their receiving corps. And as you mentioned, they want to

674
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: protect Russell Wilson. They know where their bread is buttered.

675
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: And again, he used to be a bit of a

676
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,479
Speaker 1: threat here as he got down to the goal line, right,

677
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 1: I mean, he had six touchdowns in twenty fourteen, six

678
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. Of course, he had three rushing touchdowns in

679
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, but last year he had zero and I

680
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: think that that's going to continue this year. And the

681
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: best part is that when the Seahawks get down inside

682
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: the five yard line, they run nearly as much as

683
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 1: any other team in the league. Now, the odds are

684
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: not overwhelming. He's plus sixteen hundred, that's the sixth worst,

685
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 1: so you know, the sportsbooks are naming him as one

686
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: of the favorite, although again look around it's plus eighteen

687
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: hundred at fandal But even at plus sixteen hundred, I

688
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: like that, bet. I just think they are going to

689
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: they not only do they love to run for the

690
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: reason that you said, and he was somebody who I

691
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: thought of with most rushing yards as well, but I

692
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: also think frankly, the rushing touchdowns themselves because of the

693
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: fact that they are going to run so much when

694
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 1: they get near the goal line, and they're going to

695
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: protect Russell Wilson, and Carson's the man. I mean, people

696
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: kind of have been looking for ways to get away

697
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 1: from him. They love Rashot Penny and everything like that,

698
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: but it's Carson. I think he's as good a bet

699
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 1: as anyone to win that title for most rushing touchdowns.

700
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 5: And again, I mean, you know, you're looking for opportunity,

701
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 5: you're looking for a lot of carries, and obviously with

702
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 5: any kind of rushing prop you're looking for a good

703
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 5: offensive line and the Seahawks have that.

704
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 4: Now.

705
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 5: They've really infused a lot of talent into that group.

706
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 5: We all know the damage that Tom Cable did, but

707
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 5: you know they've gotten much much stronger there in the trenches.

708
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 5: And you know that's that's how you score rushing touchdowns.

709
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 5: You're able to own the line of scrimmage, You're able

710
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 5: to push that defensive line back, open up those holes,

711
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 5: secure your blocks, and they did a really good job

712
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 5: of that last year. And like we said, I mean,

713
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 5: this is a guy who had a big year last year,

714
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 5: missing two games, and you know you can correct me

715
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 5: if I'm wrong here. I don't even think he was

716
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 5: really the unquestioned starter coming into the year. You are correct,

717
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 5: there were still some some concerns, some reservations there from

718
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 5: the Seahawks. But I mean he completely took that job

719
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 5: and pardon the bad pun here, and ran with it.

720
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 5: So I think that's the right type of guy you

721
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 5: want to look for. And you know, the one thing

722
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 5: I will say is that, yeah, you want to look

723
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 5: for these long shot opportunity it is, but how often

724
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 5: do you see these long shots come in for some

725
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 5: of these different you know, individual player awards because the

726
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 5: guys that are longer shots are either in time shares

727
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 5: or they're not proven starters. So I don't mind going

728
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 5: a little bit lower with the prices. This is different

729
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 5: than something like, you know, picking championship futures, especially in

730
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 5: something like college basketball. I'm okay with taking the fifth,

731
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 5: sixth name off the board.

732
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: Oh, one hundred percent. I one hundred percent agree with that.

733
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: These things, I mean, they are there for a reason.

734
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: It's really hard for some of these long shots to

735
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: really see any conceivable path to win their future. But

736
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 1: you know, for me, again, the long shot that I

737
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: named earlier, and I know you weren't talking about it specifically.

738
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: For me, it was Godwin, mainly because I just think

739
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: that those odds are way off, and really, when you're

740
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: looking at larger odds, that's kind of what you want

741
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: to be looking at, you know. When you put the

742
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: odds to me, it would be more like plus six

743
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: thousand for Godwin to lead when he's plus ninety three hundred.

744
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: That's really where I think about going for the longer one.

745
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: But in terms of Carson, yeah, he is not that

746
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: far away from being one of the favorites to lead

747
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 1: both in rushing yards which was your pick, and rushing touchdowns,

748
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: as is my pick. So I totally agree. You don't

749
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: really want to shy too far away from the favorites

750
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 1: because they are there for a reason.

751
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 5: Well and obviously too sorry to interrupt, but no too.

752
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 5: The context is important here. I mean, gambling on a

753
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 5: guy like god would make sense because the Buccaneers probably

754
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 5: won't be very good. They're gonna be trailing in a

755
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 5: lot of games. They're gonna have to throw the football.

756
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 5: When you're looking at running backs like I love Joe Mixon,

757
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 5: I think Zach Taylor is going to do a phenomenal

758
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 5: job with a weapon like Joe Mixon. But how many

759
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 5: rushing attempts is he going to get when they're trailing

760
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 5: in a lot of their games. You know he's going

761
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 5: to be more of a weapon probably out of the

762
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 5: backfield than he will be, you know, three yards behind

763
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 5: the line of scrimmage. So that's an important contextual point

764
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 5: you have to look at here too. That's why a

765
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 5: long shot like God would make sense. If you're looking

766
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 5: at a long shot on a team that likes to

767
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 5: run the football, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

768
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 5: But if they're trailing and they have no choice, then

769
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 5: that's where you can rack up some of that yardage

770
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 5: from a receiving stand.

771
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: Yep, absolutely all right. So before we move on to

772
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: our next one, I do want to mention another one

773
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774
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776
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777
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778
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779
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780
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781
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782
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783
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784
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785
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786
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787
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788
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789
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790
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792
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794
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795
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: next player future.

796
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's give the defensive side a little bit of

797
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 5: love here, and again, I mean, this isn't going to

798
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 5: be earth shattering, This isn't going to be you know,

799
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 5: get lucky and hit this and wind up retiring.

800
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 4: I mean, look, when you look at the context of

801
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 4: the Defensive.

802
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 5: Player of the Year, there's one guy that very much

803
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 5: stands out to me, and it's jj Watt. I mean, look,

804
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 5: the Texans probably won't have Jenavian Clowney, right, so who's

805
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 5: going to rack up all the numbers. Well, it's jj Watt.

806
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 5: And you look at the narratives, because this is an award.

807
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 5: This is not based on you know, this is not

808
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 5: based on counting numbers like the other stuff that we've

809
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 5: been talking about. This is based on how people vote.

810
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 5: And if jj Watt has a monster year without Clowney,

811
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 5: the narrative is going to really grow of look at

812
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 5: the year this guy had without you know, his his

813
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 5: partner in crime. On the other side, he's already won

814
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 5: this thing three times. The media loves, really, everybody loves

815
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 5: jj Watt. I don't know how you can't love jj Watt.

816
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,439
Speaker 5: It's a popularity contest type thing like some of these

817
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 5: you know, voter based awards are jj Watt has a

818
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 5: leg up on a lot of the field that's out there. Yeah,

819
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 5: it's only seven to one, but again, I mean the

820
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 5: Texans team probably without Clowney, that gets a massive year

821
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 5: from JJ Watt. The fact that he's not at least

822
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 5: the second favorite is kind of mind blowing to me.

823
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 5: And I know Aaron Donald is an elite player. I

824
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 5: know Khalil Mack plays in a very big market and

825
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 5: everyone's very impressed with him. But JJ Watt at seven

826
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 5: to one, I can't pass on that.

827
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 1: I really think what sticks out is you said it,

828
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: look Donald, It's fine. I'm fine to put him in

829
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: sort of a tear by himself, right because he is incredible,

830
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 1: of course, But the fact that Khalil Mack is plus

831
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 1: three point fifty while JJ Watt is plus seven hundred,

832
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 1: that makes absolutely no sense to me. I mean to me,

833
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 1: maybe maybe I could see Mack being slightly ahead of

834
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 1: him in terms of favorite, but especially with the situation

835
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 1: with Clowney and at this point, I mean, what is

836
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 1: the likelihood that Clownie is going to be on the

837
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 1: Texans this year? It's got to be what less than

838
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: twenty five percent?

839
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 5: Right, No, I would think so, yeah, twenty percent might

840
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 5: even be high.

841
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he's there's all sorts of trade rumors

842
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: going on. He looks to have no interest in reporting,

843
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: so he could be gone. So I think Watt is

844
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 1: really really an interesting pick there, and you went defense, okay,

845
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,439
Speaker 1: and I was thinking about it, but I probably wasn't

846
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: go there. But I'll go defense too. Then for another one,

847
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: and you know, again it's a little bit more of

848
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: a long shot. And this is who's going to lead

849
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 1: the NFL in sacks, So it's probably again going to

850
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 1: be Donald, but he's at plus three seventy five. And

851
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: I personally I like JJ Watt at plus eight hundred,

852
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: and I like Khalil Mack at plus eight fifty. I

853
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: would take any of those guys, but I like a

854
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 1: little bit of a longer shot, and that's Chris Jones

855
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 1: because he's at plus twenty two hundred. And the thing

856
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: about him is he was third last year in sacks.

857
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 1: He had fifteen and a half. So the fact that

858
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: he's at plus twenty two hundred right now for the chiefs,

859
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: I just don't get that. I mean, of course, I think,

860
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 1: you know, spending some money, and this is sort of

861
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: where you don't need to go way from the favorites necessarily.

862
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I would be fine to put money on

863
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: Donald and Watt and Mac at their prices, but for me.

864
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 1: You know, Chris Jones plus twenty two hundred, given the

865
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: fact that he had fifteen and a half, I know

866
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: it was you know, a little out of character for him,

867
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: but I think to lead the league in sacks, he's

868
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 1: a guy, given those odds, who I would kind of

869
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 1: be willing to take a risk on. And this is

870
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 1: something that comes out because again, you know, there are

871
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 1: a lot of fantasy players, probably a lot of people

872
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: listening to this podcast are not all that sophisticated betters,

873
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: but betting on the defensive side of the vault, there's

874
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: money to be made there a lot of times, you know,

875
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 1: Adam just just pointed out the odds on what to

876
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: lead for defensive Player of the Year are really out

877
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 1: of whack when you consider where MAC is, so it's

878
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: a place where you can take advantage of some mods.

879
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: And for me, again, I don't think Chris Jones is

880
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: going to lead the NFL and sacks necessarily, but at

881
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: plus twenty two hundred, again, when the other guys are

882
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 1: more at plus eight hundred, plus eight fifteen, and especially

883
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: Donald Lose at plus three seventy five, to me, that

884
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: just seems out of whack. And I think there's there's

885
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: a better chance than that that Jones is going to

886
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:57,720
Speaker 1: be able to lead the league.

887
00:37:57,880 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that you're on the right track with

888
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 5: that one to it. And you know, you kind of

889
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 5: look at the context of the defense there and and

890
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 5: it's one of those where you know, they have to

891
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 5: be aggressive, they have to try and take their shots,

892
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 5: get into the backfield because the back seven is not phenomenal.

893
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 5: I mean, it's okay, but it's not great. It's certainly

894
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 5: I would consider in the well into the bottom half

895
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 5: of the league, maybe the bottom third of the league.

896
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 5: So you've got to be aggressive. You've got to get

897
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 5: back there, try and get after the quarterback. That's kind

898
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 5: of what you're looking for here. Again, you know, talking

899
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 5: about context and the importance of it. You know, I

900
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 5: look at a guy like TJ.

901
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 4: Watt.

902
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 5: I mean maybe I don't know, maybe I'm just biased

903
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 5: with the Watt family here, but at fifty to one

904
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 5: for the most sacks Pittsburgh gets after the quarterback. They've

905
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,919
Speaker 5: got good speed rushers on the outside. They were tie

906
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 5: last year for the most sacks in the NFL. I know,

907
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 5: they gave up some points. They were also fifth best

908
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 5: in yards per play alout on defense because of that aggression.

909
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 5: They're not gonna stop doing that.

910
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:49,840
Speaker 4: So TJ.

911
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 5: Watt at fifty to one makes sense and maybe a

912
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 5: little bit of Browns homerism here, but I'm not looking

913
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 5: at Miles Garrett because I think Miles Garrett gonna get

914
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 5: a lot of help with that tackle.

915
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 4: Whatever side, whether it's a back or a guard.

916
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 5: In the blocking scheme, he's going to open up a

917
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 5: lot of things for Olivier Vernon, And at fifty to one,

918
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 5: a guy that's had double digit sacks before, this may

919
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 5: be the career resurgence that he needs to be able

920
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 5: to play opposite a guy like Miles Garrett. So a

921
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 5: couple of fifty to one shots there in Vernon and

922
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 5: the other Watt, which I don't mean to downplay him

923
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 5: that way, but a couple of longer shots there. This

924
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 5: is one where you can take a chance with the

925
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 5: sacks with some of the longer prices.

926
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 4: Because you're the premier guys in.

927
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 5: The league, they get double and triple team, whether it's

928
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 5: tight end help or running back whatever else. You can

929
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 5: take some shots here on the guys that are just

930
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 5: fortunate enough to play on the opposite end.

931
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 4: Of the line.

932
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I think that's a great way to analyze it,

933
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: because you know, Garrett at his odds, I don't love it,

934
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 1: but I do think that that's sort of the way

935
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: you need to think about these. And as you said,

936
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 1: these are the types of bets in particular that you

937
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 1: can go a little bit with the longer odds because

938
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: I think things like that they're much more situational and

939
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: they can come to fruition. All right, let's go on

940
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 1: to your next best player prop bet?

941
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:58,359
Speaker 4: What do you got? All right?

942
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 5: I want to take a look here at offensive rookie

943
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 5: of the Year for a second, because I think this

944
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 5: one's really interesting. I mean, you've got a guy in

945
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 5: Kyler Murray here who's very obviously the favorite.

946
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 4: And deservedly so.

947
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, being the first overall pick, you

948
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 5: kind of come with this certain level of expectation. But

949
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 5: I mean, you don't want to take too much away

950
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 5: from the preseason. It has not been a good look

951
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 5: for Arizona. It has not been a good look for

952
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 5: the Arizona offensive line. There has to be some value

953
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 5: somewhere else in this marketplace, and to me, I think

954
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 5: it's David Montgomery at twelve to one for the Bears,

955
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 5: three of the last four for the last six Offensive

956
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 5: Rookie of the year's running backs, And when you think

957
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 5: about this position, you want young legs. It's a very

958
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 5: short prime that you're looking at with running backs. Montgomery,

959
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 5: it's already obvious. The team loves him, He's gonna get

960
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 5: a lot of touches, and some of the worries about

961
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 5: other running backs, you know, sort of in his same

962
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 5: price range, lay guy like Miles Sanders for the Eagles,

963
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 5: I think he's just gonna share too many touches with

964
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 5: everybody that's there, Whereas I think Montgomery is the focal

965
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 5: point of the running game and also as pretty good

966
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 5: hands out of the backfield too. So I think David

967
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 5: Montgomery at twelve to one for the Offensive Rookie of

968
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 5: the Year is a pretty good look, you know, because

969
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 5: the quarterbacks, it's hard to keep that job, you know,

970
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 5: especially if you've got a veteran back up there. And

971
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 5: usually if you're a high pick as a quarterback, you

972
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 5: wind up going to a bad team. And sometimes it's

973
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 5: hard to put up numbers with a bad team. You

974
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 5: don't have a good line, you don't have the skill guys,

975
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 5: Montgomery has all of it there in Chicago, and they'll

976
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 5: also be a team that should have some leads this

977
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 5: year for him to rack up some numbers. So I

978
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 5: like David Montgomery twelve to one.

979
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 1: I really like that. Actually, and again you mentioned it

980
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 1: with the quarterbacks, the guy ahead of him, you know

981
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,320
Speaker 1: who is more favorite is Dwayne Haskins, who's at plus thousand.

982
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 1: I would much rather have Montgomery at plus twelve hundred

983
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: with out of that. And just to be clear again,

984
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: this is where one of the things I like is

985
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: that we give you the consensus odds, but we'll show

986
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: you what odds are available in the market. And at

987
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 1: DraftKings he's actually at plus sixteen hundred, So if you

988
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: can get in on that, that's a great bet. And

989
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 1: just to show you how what those odds are, Murray

990
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,919
Speaker 1: is plus one seventy five, okay, and we're talking about

991
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 1: Onntgomery at plus twelve hundred. So of course Murray is

992
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 1: and should be the large favorite. But other than that, yeah,

993
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 1: I agree, the fact that Miles Sanders basically has the

994
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 1: same exact odds as he does doesn't really make a

995
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: whole lot of sense to me. So I think Montgomery

996
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 1: at plus twelve hundred, and in particular, if you can

997
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 1: get on draftings and get him at plus sixteen hundred,

998
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 1: I think that's a great bet. So I really like

999
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: that one. I do think you know, of course Murray

1000
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,240
Speaker 1: is and should be the favorite, but I do think

1001
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 1: that in the end, he's basically a much better pick

1002
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 1: than the guys that are going right around him. For me,

1003
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: my next one, I'm gonna go. You know, you mentioned

1004
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 1: Carson to lead the league in rushing. I'm gonna go

1005
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: with somebody else. And the odds I think are a

1006
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 1: little worse. I believe, yes, they're Dalvin Cook to lead

1007
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: the league in rushing, and he was at plus twenty

1008
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: four hundred in the consensus odds, So these are the

1009
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,840
Speaker 1: tenth worse odds, and I think he's a much better

1010
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: shot than that to win the rushing title. And now

1011
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 1: he needs to stay healthy, which has always been a problem,

1012
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,399
Speaker 1: so that's obviously the first factor. But if he does,

1013
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 1: I think he's going to get a massive workload. Here

1014
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 1: we've talked about Alexander Mattison and Mike Boon are fine,

1015
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 1: but I really don't think they're going to necessarily eat

1016
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: into his workload like the Tavious Murray necessarily. Did you

1017
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 1: know the Vikings want to run the ball a ton.

1018
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 1: They showed that at the end of last year. Cook

1019
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: is the perfect back for Gary Kubiak zone blocking scheme

1020
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 1: to the extent they're implementing it. He's an offensive advisor,

1021
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: he's not the offensive coordinator, but they're obviously going to

1022
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 1: use his scheme. The defense should keep all the games close,

1023
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: and again, that's really the thing you're thinking about context.

1024
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 1: They're going to keep the games close. Cook is going

1025
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 1: to stay on the field for the majority of the time.

1026
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: They're not They're unlikely to. They're not gonna get blown out,

1027
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: so you're not gonna have to worry about them throwing

1028
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: all the time. And if they do get a lead

1029
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: because their defense is you know, so good that they

1030
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 1: shut the other team out or anything like that, then

1031
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 1: Cook is going to be on the field because they're

1032
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: going to be running more later in the game. And

1033
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 1: you don't want to get too excited about the preseason,

1034
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: but that run that he had showed you exactly what

1035
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 1: he can do when he gets even a little bit

1036
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 1: of space. So you know, other than the injury concerns

1037
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: at plus twenty four hundred. He's a guy who I

1038
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 1: would gladly take at that price.

1039
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the big thing, is the injury concerns.

1040
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 5: And look, we can say this about any guy, you know,

1041
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 5: And that's why one of the guys I'm kind of

1042
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 5: thinking about, you know, in terms of leading the league

1043
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 5: and receiving yards is a guy like Travis Kelcey, Because

1044
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 5: if Tyreek Hill goes down, then what you know, then

1045
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 5: who's the other guy that gets targets? Probably nobody, you know,

1046
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 5: is it Sammy Watkins, Maybe is McCole Hartman, Maybe DeMarcus Robinson.

1047
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 4: I don't know, it's gonna be Kelsey.

1048
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 5: And that's the thing with a lot of these individual

1049
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 5: player props is that you know, you've got to kind

1050
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 5: of look at them and judge some of that injury

1051
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 5: risk that's out there. Obviously we know Dalvin Cook has

1052
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 5: a high injury risk, but it's a boom or bust

1053
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 5: kind of play. If he plays sixteen games, you're absolutely

1054
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 5: right he's gonna be up there, probably in the top

1055
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 5: two or three in rushing yards. So that's what you

1056
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 5: hope for. And look, I mean, it's it's the one

1057
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 5: thing that we can't predict. You know, it's the one

1058
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 5: thing that we don't know about these individual player props

1059
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 5: is if these guys are going to stay healthy. If

1060
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 5: Cook does, I certainly agree with you that he's going

1061
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 5: to be up there near the top of the class.

1062
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know again, look, you know, injuries are

1063
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 1: a thing, but they're a thing for everyone. And of

1064
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 1: course Cook is quote unquote more injury prone because he's

1065
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 1: suffered injuries two years in a row. But you know,

1066
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 1: with his amount of upside, given where he's going, you know,

1067
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 1: I just I don't see James Connor, for example, having

1068
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 1: nearly the same shot to do it. I don't really

1069
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 1: see a path that. I mean, I see a path,

1070
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: I guess, but I don't really see it as being

1071
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 1: remotely likely, given even factoring in the injury list, that Connor,

1072
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 1: who basically has the same odds, is going to be

1073
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 1: able to finish there. So let's finish up with our

1074
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 1: favorite MVP bets. But before we do, I do want

1075
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 1: to remind everyone that we've got just a couple of

1076
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 1: days left in our August contest, where we're going to

1077
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 1: be giving away a signed Christian McCaffrey Panthers helmet from

1078
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 1: our friends at Pristine Auction. All you need to do

1079
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 1: to be entered into the contest is to leave a

1080
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 1: review for the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and send

1081
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.

1082
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: That is it. At the end of August, which is

1083
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:45,720
Speaker 1: just a couple of days, We're going to randomly select

1084
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 1: a winner and we'll announce it and email them and

1085
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: you will be the winner of a signed Christian McCaffrey

1086
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 1: panthers helmet. That's a really cool thing. And again, we

1087
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,840
Speaker 1: are a relatively new podcast. There are not a zillion

1088
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: entries into this contest, So go ahead, last couple of days,

1089
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 1: leave reviews, send it in to contest at bettingpros dot com.

1090
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 1: All right, Adam, let's get to our final one. Who

1091
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: is your best bet for MVP?

1092
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, and you know, just to the injury point real

1093
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 5: quick with Delvin Cook. I mean, it's not like we're betting,

1094
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 5: you know, full units on these types of things. I

1095
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 5: mean it's twenty four to one. You know, it's not

1096
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 5: like you're playing a minus one ten or something like that.

1097
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 5: You know, you're betting a little bit to win a

1098
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 5: lot so you can you can embrace that injury risk

1099
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 5: a little bit more knowing that you know you're not

1100
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 5: putting a lot of money out there. And that's true

1101
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 5: of all of these different player props, including the one

1102
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 5: I'm looking at here for MVP with Matt Ryan. You know,

1103
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:36,959
Speaker 5: Matt Ryan consensus twenty three to one number out there.

1104
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 5: See him as high as twenty six to one, thirty

1105
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 5: five to seven touchdown interception ratio last year.

1106
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 4: But he's got a different offensive.

1107
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 5: Coordinator here in Dirk Cotter, who knows him very well.

1108
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,399
Speaker 5: This is a good match I think for Matt Ryan.

1109
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,360
Speaker 5: Matt Ryan is a better player, and the cast around

1110
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 5: him is much better than it was from twenty twelve

1111
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 5: to twenty fourteen when Cotter was the offensive coordinator there. Look,

1112
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 5: he's gonna be up there for the most pasts. He

1113
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 5: throws the football a lot. He's second actually on the

1114
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 5: board in terms of most passing yards at plus four fifty.

1115
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 5: But then he is somewhere around eighth or tenth in

1116
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 5: the market for MVP. So if he's going to put

1117
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:14,439
Speaker 5: up all these passing yards, why wouldn't he have better

1118
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 5: odds for the MVP?

1119
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 4: You know, obviously it's important to win a lot of games.

1120
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 5: I mean that, for better or worse, the MVP generally

1121
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,320
Speaker 5: tends to be a team award, and we see that

1122
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 5: in Major League Baseball all the time with Mike Trout,

1123
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 5: wh should win it every single year. Of course, you know,

1124
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 5: I think Matt Ryan, he's got plenty of weapons, he's

1125
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 5: got an offensive line that should be better. He shouldn't

1126
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 5: get sacked forty two times this year. And he's got

1127
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 5: an offensive coordinator who knows what he's capable of. And

1128
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 5: more importantly, it's an offensive coordator who's not Steve Sarkisian.

1129
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 5: So I think Matt Ryan makes a lot of sense

1130
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 5: here in that twenty three to twenty five to one range.

1131
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 1: No, I agree with that. I think that's a great pick.

1132
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 1: My MVP guy is right around the same age. It's

1133
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: a little bit better odds, and that's Philip Rivers at

1134
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 1: plus two thousand, and it seems a little weird because

1135
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 1: he's getting up there in age and his numbers are

1136
00:47:57,680 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 1: you know, took a little bit of a dip, but

1137
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 1: he is a He was more accurate last year, I believe,

1138
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 1: than he had been in his entire career. I think

1139
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 1: you know, if the Chargers can stay focused and if

1140
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 1: they can overtake the Chiefs, and if Rivers can finally

1141
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 1: put up, you know, one of those really really big years,

1142
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:14,799
Speaker 1: I think that he's got a shot. And again, the

1143
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: thing about MVP is that it's really it's it's not

1144
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 1: one of these things where who is going to lead

1145
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 1: the league in rushing. It's somebody who's It's a subjective thing,

1146
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 1: and people fall for narratives necessarily, and I think the

1147
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 1: idea of Rivers at this stage in his career winning

1148
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 1: an MVP, overtaking sort of the young younger Patrick Mahomes

1149
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 1: right around that same thing plus two thousand, I think

1150
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 1: that is is going to be somebody who's, you know,

1151
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: got a solid decent chance. I do like Ryan. He

1152
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 1: was actually my pick. I didn't want to say that

1153
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 1: because you had it, because I think that that is

1154
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 1: the guy who, given his situation, is probably offering the

1155
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 1: best odds. But for me, I will go just a

1156
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 1: little bit higher. He's the guy right above Ryan at

1157
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 1: Rivers at plus two thousand. Again, it's really it's the situation.

1158
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: If he has a big year and he builds on that,

1159
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 1: you've got Hunter Henry back now you've got Mike Williams

1160
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 1: still developed, being and taking that next step. They're probably

1161
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 1: not going to be running it quite as much considering

1162
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: the Melvin Gordon situation unless he comes back. You know,

1163
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 1: Eckler's going to do more as a pass catcher out

1164
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 1: of the backfield. I think he's going to throw a lot.

1165
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 1: I think they have a great team once again, and

1166
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 1: if they do win that division, I think there's a

1167
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 1: narrative built in that I think can can win it

1168
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: for him, and I think people would sort of enjoy

1169
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: giving it to him, given that I believe he's entering

1170
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 1: his age thirty eight season.

1171
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:23,399
Speaker 4: Yeah for sure.

1172
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 5: And I mean, look, this is you know, this is

1173
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 5: a Chargers offense that just two years ago was tops

1174
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 5: in the NFL and passing and passing yardage. You know

1175
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,359
Speaker 5: the fact that Philip Rivers is back with Kenny Wizenhunt,

1176
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 5: I think he loves that. I think those two just

1177
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 5: have such a great report together. And again, as you

1178
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,800
Speaker 5: mentioned a correlation there with the idea that Melvin Gordon

1179
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 5: may not be there, and also this is a good defense,

1180
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 5: a negative play ballhawking type of defense. He may get

1181
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 5: some short fields too to pad those numbers a little bit.

1182
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 5: And look, the thing about it is this, he's efficient,

1183
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 5: he's reliable, he's responsible. Is he going to put up

1184
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 5: huge Patrick Mahomes numbers. Probably not, But he's not going

1185
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:03,360
Speaker 5: to turn the football over. He's going to have a

1186
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,239
Speaker 5: high completion percentage, and if the Chargers get some of

1187
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 5: those short fields, he'll rack up the touchdowns too, you know,

1188
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 5: especially if Gordon doesn't come back and he's not a

1189
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 5: red zone option running the football for them.

1190
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 4: So I like that one as well.

1191
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially you know with Mike Williams being the red

1192
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 1: zone threat with Hunter Henry back. Again, this isn't to

1193
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: lead the league in you know, passing yards. I don't

1194
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 1: really think that that's a realistic possibility at this point

1195
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: in River's career. But I do think that he could

1196
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 1: have his best season, and I think again it's a

1197
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 1: lot of it is around the narrative. If he does

1198
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 1: what I think it's possible for him to do, and

1199
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,880
Speaker 1: I think probably Melvin Gordon has to hold out for

1200
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 1: a while for this to really come to fruition. But

1201
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 1: if he does, I think it's certainly a possibility. So

1202
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: let me just see if I can remember enough to

1203
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 1: sum up here. It started with you like Juju Smith

1204
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 1: Schuster to lead the NFL in receiving I believe that

1205
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 1: it was at plus eleven hundred, and you also mentioned

1206
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,240
Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd, who I think was at plus fifty six hundred.

1207
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: He liked Chris Carson to lead the league in rushing yards,

1208
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 1: which is at plus two thousand. He liked JJ Watt

1209
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 1: as defensive Player of the Year at plus five hundred,

1210
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 1: David Montgomery as offensive Rookie of the Year, and that

1211
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 1: was again at plus twelve hundred, and then you liked

1212
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 1: MVP Matt Ryan at plus twenty three hundred. For me,

1213
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 1: I liked Chris Godwin at plus ninety three hundred to

1214
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,920
Speaker 1: lead the league in receiving yards. I liked Chris Carson

1215
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 1: plus sixteen hundred to lead the league in rushing touchdowns.

1216
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:19,959
Speaker 1: I like Chris Jones to lead the league in sacks

1217
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 1: at plus twenty two hundred. I liked Rivers at MVP

1218
00:51:22,920 --> 00:51:25,360
Speaker 1: at plus two thousand, and I like Dalvin Cook to

1219
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 1: lead the league in rushing yards at plus twenty four hundred.

1220
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 1: So we got a lot of different opinions there, but

1221
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 1: for the most part we were generally in agreement. On

1222
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 1: what we liked. I really liked all of Adam's picks. Honestly,

1223
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 1: I couldn't disagree with any and my MVP pick was

1224
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan. So to the extent you want to go

1225
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 1: in on that, you've got both of our backing. But

1226
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 1: that's going to do it for today show, Adam. I

1227
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 1: really enjoyed having you on. I really hope we can

1228
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:46,280
Speaker 1: do it again during the season.

1229
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 4: Absolutely, guys, anytime I.

1230
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:49,880
Speaker 1: Want to again say thank you to the sponsors of

1231
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,399
Speaker 1: today's show. Play MGM, where you can place your first

1232
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:54,920
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1233
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:57,600
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1234
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 1: Harris and Sideboss, where you can participate in their free

1235
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 1: handicapping contest and when a ton of prizes just go

1236
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 1: to sidboss dot com use the promo code Betting Pros.

1237
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 1: We'll be starting on two episodes per week next week

1238
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 1: as we begin to break down the weekly game lines.

1239
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 1: For now, enjoy your last few days without real football,

1240
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 1: my friends. I'll talk to you soon.