1
00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,400
Speaker 1: On this episode of newts World, many argue that today's

2
00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:12,640
Speaker 1: Republican Party is divided, but in their new book, we

3
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:17,240
Speaker 1: Win they Lose. Matthew Kronig and Dan Nogria argue that

4
00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,480
Speaker 1: the outline of a GOP foreign policy consensus is emerging

5
00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:26,360
Speaker 1: just beneath the surface. They call this the emerging Republican

6
00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 1: foreign policy doctrine, the Trump Reagan Fusion. Trump and Reagan

7
00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:35,080
Speaker 1: were the most influential Republican presidents of the past several decades,

8
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:39,760
Speaker 1: and any viable GOP forign policy must build on their

9
00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,400
Speaker 1: legacies and we win, they lose. They explain why the

10
00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:48,479
Speaker 1: Trump Reagan fusion is superior to progressive alternatives and how

11
00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,920
Speaker 1: it can guide the GOP, the United States, and the

12
00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:57,639
Speaker 1: American people to greater levels of peace, prosperity, and freedom.

13
00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,680
Speaker 1: Here to discuss their new book, please to welcome my guests,

14
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,000
Speaker 1: doctor Matthew Kronick, Vice President and Senior Director of the

15
00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:11,000
Speaker 1: Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and Dan mcgrail,

16
00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:15,200
Speaker 1: Senior Director of the Lantic Council's Freedom and Prosperity Center.

17
00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,280
Speaker 1: Matthew and Dan, welcome and thank you for joining me

18
00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:31,880
Speaker 1: on News World.

19
00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,000
Speaker 2: Thank you for having us on. It's a pleasure and it.

20
00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:35,360
Speaker 3: Could be here.

21
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,759
Speaker 1: You two both have an immense amount of knowledge. Let

22
00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 1: me start by asking to talk about where did the

23
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,039
Speaker 1: title of the book come from.

24
00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,840
Speaker 2: Well, it comes from Ronald Reagan's classic quote about the

25
00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,559
Speaker 2: First Cold War, and he was meeting with his future

26
00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,600
Speaker 2: national security advisor. He was asked about his strategy for

27
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,680
Speaker 2: the Cold War, and he said, it's simple. Some might

28
00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,640
Speaker 2: say it's simplistic, but it's this. It's we win and

29
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,720
Speaker 2: they lose. And Reagan was elected president followed that clear

30
00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,480
Speaker 2: strategic vision, and by the end of his two terms

31
00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,160
Speaker 2: in office, he'd succeeded in winning the first Cold War.

32
00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,079
Speaker 2: And now we're entering a second Cold War, maybe more

33
00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,880
Speaker 2: dangerous than the first, with the Chinese Communist Party and

34
00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:19,200
Speaker 2: other revisionist autocracies. President Trump was correct to declare great

35
00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,880
Speaker 2: power competition with China the foremost threat to the country

36
00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,400
Speaker 2: and the national security strategy in twenty seventeen. But I

37
00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,920
Speaker 2: think the United States and its allies are still struggling

38
00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:30,960
Speaker 2: with the goal and coming up with the goal for

39
00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,000
Speaker 2: a strategy is important, and so Dan and I thought,

40
00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,840
Speaker 2: you can do no better than President Reagan. And we

41
00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,360
Speaker 2: argue that the goal for this new Cold War with

42
00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,519
Speaker 2: China should once again be we win and they lose.

43
00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,280
Speaker 1: I'm particularly fascinating because there have been a number of

44
00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:50,040
Speaker 1: people who've written that Trump is a repudiation of Reagan,

45
00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,000
Speaker 1: including people who served in Reagan's administration.

46
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,800
Speaker 3: What's your reaction to the Well, what we arguing in

47
00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:59,359
Speaker 3: our book is that this is not the correct view,

48
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 3: because actually they have a lot in common and more

49
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,400
Speaker 3: than many people realized. They were both Democrats before they

50
00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:11,360
Speaker 3: became Republicans, they were both entertainers. They were both viewed

51
00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:17,760
Speaker 3: as reckless, as dangerous, threats to peace, unpredictable, but they

52
00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,920
Speaker 3: were in the end the most consequential presidents that we've had.

53
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:25,240
Speaker 1: What about the whoorument though that Trump somehow is an

54
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:32,040
Speaker 1: isolationist and Reagan champion and internationalism that Trump has abandoned.

55
00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,840
Speaker 2: Well, we argue that that's also incorrect, and that actually

56
00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,720
Speaker 2: that the regn Night wing and the Trumpian wing are

57
00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 2: more united on the major issues than many people realize.

58
00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,120
Speaker 2: And so, first, I think people sometimes misremember Reagan also

59
00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,800
Speaker 2: used tariffs against allies try to get better trade deals,

60
00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 2: and that's the purpose behind Trump's tariffs, as well, it's

61
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,600
Speaker 2: not protectionism for its own sake. He's explicitly said that

62
00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,240
Speaker 2: the goal is to get fair trade deals that are

63
00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 2: truly free and beneficial for the American people. And more broadly,

64
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,280
Speaker 2: in the book, we go through political philosophy, what does

65
00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,080
Speaker 2: it mean to be a conservative? What does it mean

66
00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,440
Speaker 2: to be a progressive? And Trumpians and Reaganites are both

67
00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:15,320
Speaker 2: conservative and their basic worldview very different from progressives. We

68
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,520
Speaker 2: argue on defense policy, they both believe in peace through strength.

69
00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:22,680
Speaker 2: On economic policy, again free and fair trade, they both

70
00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,560
Speaker 2: believe in American exceptionalism, although slightly different variants. And when

71
00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:32,240
Speaker 2: it comes to almost every major issue China, Iran, NATO, Allies, immigration, climate,

72
00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,359
Speaker 2: there's broad agreement in the Republican Party, and so I

73
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,839
Speaker 2: think Ukraine, Ate or There are a few examples where

74
00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:41,480
Speaker 2: there are real differences, but many people obsess over these

75
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 2: differences and overlook the broader unity and continuity between Reagan

76
00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:45,960
Speaker 2: and Trump.

77
00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,760
Speaker 3: There are a lot of people now before the next election,

78
00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,440
Speaker 3: when Trump is leading in the polls, there is a

79
00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:57,560
Speaker 3: real possibility that it will be president again, and they

80
00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:03,400
Speaker 3: imagine worst case scenarios about President Trump. He may do this,

81
00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,120
Speaker 3: and he may do that, I think the most important

82
00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:08,080
Speaker 3: thing that we can do right now in trying to

83
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,279
Speaker 3: figure out what Trump will do in the second if

84
00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,200
Speaker 3: he has a second term, is to look at what

85
00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,080
Speaker 3: he did in the first term. And if we look

86
00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,359
Speaker 3: at what he actually did in the first term, we

87
00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,120
Speaker 3: see no indications that he was an isolationist. We view

88
00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 3: his policy as one that puts America first, but not

89
00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:30,040
Speaker 3: that takes America out of the world. Allow me, sir, also,

90
00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,520
Speaker 3: before I forget to add a disclaimer. Both Matt and

91
00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,840
Speaker 3: I are senior directors running different centers at the Atlantic Council.

92
00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,039
Speaker 3: The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan institution. This is a

93
00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,719
Speaker 3: partisan book. We call it a Republican foreign policy. The

94
00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,800
Speaker 3: statements that we made at our own and not necessarily

95
00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,440
Speaker 3: representing the positions of the Atlantic Council.

96
00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:55,479
Speaker 1: You two are here as authors, not as spokesman for

97
00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:59,320
Speaker 1: the institution. Let me go, except for one of the

98
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,839
Speaker 1: things that has truck me is that we tend to

99
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:09,240
Speaker 1: remember Reagan backwards through morning in America, and by morning

100
00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,160
Speaker 1: in America, he's already triumphant, and things are working, and

101
00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,719
Speaker 1: the economy is gaining five and a half percent every quarter.

102
00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,320
Speaker 1: I mean, it's an astonishing period, the civil unions begin

103
00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:23,400
Speaker 1: to collapse. But for the people who worry about Trump's language,

104
00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,440
Speaker 1: and I noticed that recently bloodbath became a key word

105
00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,000
Speaker 1: in the New York Times distortion of Trump. I'm tempted

106
00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 1: to go around and just ask people, tell me who

107
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:37,680
Speaker 1: said the following. If it takes a blood bath, let's

108
00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,600
Speaker 1: get it over with, no more appeasement, because in fact,

109
00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:47,280
Speaker 1: it's Ronald Reagan as governor talking about Berkeley now, it

110
00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,400
Speaker 1: is not Donald Trump. The reason I cite that is

111
00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 1: I first began studying Reagan in sixty five. I first

112
00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,120
Speaker 1: met him in seventy four, and I helped work on

113
00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,680
Speaker 1: the campaign in eighty and then served eight years in

114
00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,599
Speaker 1: cong well he was president. He's a much tougher and

115
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:09,480
Speaker 1: much more subtle person than the popular memory, and I

116
00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,240
Speaker 1: think that he actually would have in today's environment, with

117
00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,400
Speaker 1: today's realities, he would be much closer to Trump than

118
00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,040
Speaker 1: he would anybody on the left, or for that matter,

119
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:24,640
Speaker 1: any of the older Republican establishment who are horrified by

120
00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,920
Speaker 1: Trump's caution when in fact, as you know, Reagan was

121
00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,520
Speaker 1: very cautious. He had bold vision, we win, they lose,

122
00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:36,520
Speaker 1: But he pursued that vision with an exquisite level of effort,

123
00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,280
Speaker 1: to not get involved in big wars, to not do

124
00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:43,240
Speaker 1: things that were damaging, to not suffer major defeats. Much

125
00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,880
Speaker 1: closer I think, to Trump than to some of the

126
00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,240
Speaker 1: current people, who would willing Nelly get a cent our

127
00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,840
Speaker 1: fourth major long term war in the last quarter century.

128
00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,400
Speaker 1: I think that's an important part of where we're at

129
00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,040
Speaker 1: in what we're up against. So when you talk about

130
00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:04,960
Speaker 1: peace through strength, how do you think Reagan would handle Ukraine?

131
00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,840
Speaker 2: Well? Peace through strength is a major theme of the book,

132
00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,400
Speaker 2: and this essentially means that the United States is so

133
00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:15,200
Speaker 2: strong that no adversary derek challenge us. But the peace

134
00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:19,320
Speaker 2: part is also important. Both Reagan and Trump were skeptical

135
00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:24,000
Speaker 2: of military interventions with MorphOS goals, and so both were

136
00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,520
Speaker 2: willing to punch back hard when the United States were challenged,

137
00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 2: but both also sought to wind down a morphous military interventions.

138
00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,160
Speaker 2: So when it comes to Ukraine, I think this is

139
00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,319
Speaker 2: another area where there's a lot of agreement in the party. Surprisingly,

140
00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:39,160
Speaker 2: I think there's agreement that Biden failed to deter Putin

141
00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,280
Speaker 2: and Obama failed to deter Putin in twenty fourteen, but

142
00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:46,000
Speaker 2: Putin didn't attack Ukraine during the Trump administration. I think

143
00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,800
Speaker 2: there's also an agreement that the Biden administration hasn't yet

144
00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,080
Speaker 2: laid out a clear strategy. Biden says will support Ukraine

145
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:54,960
Speaker 2: as long as it takes, but as long as it

146
00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,800
Speaker 2: takes to do what is the goal. And so I

147
00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,360
Speaker 2: think Trump has said that he'd like to in the

148
00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 2: war quickly. He said that he would do that through

149
00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,880
Speaker 2: negotiations in twenty four hours. I think the twenty four

150
00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,480
Speaker 2: hours is maybe an exaggeration, but given where the lines

151
00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:13,160
Speaker 2: are now, I think some conservatives who want to help

152
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,960
Speaker 2: Ukraine win a decisive victory on the battlefield, that just

153
00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:19,400
Speaker 2: doesn't seem realistic right now. The Russians have had time

154
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,600
Speaker 2: to dig in. The Biden administration has been cautious about

155
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,120
Speaker 2: providing Ukraine the weapons that it would really take to win.

156
00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,199
Speaker 2: New technologies like drones seem to be giving the defense

157
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,599
Speaker 2: the advantage. So I do think a stalemate along the

158
00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,959
Speaker 2: current lines is looking almost inevitable, and so getting to

159
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,280
Speaker 2: some kind of situation where the war dies down, maybe

160
00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,360
Speaker 2: even a ceasefire, that could create the conditions then for

161
00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,760
Speaker 2: security guarantees or other things for Ukraine. I think that's

162
00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,280
Speaker 2: how Reagan would likely view it, and I think that's

163
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,000
Speaker 2: how Trump used it as well.

164
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,280
Speaker 1: From next stand one, also, since me, Reagan was pretty

165
00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,600
Speaker 1: good at getting the allies to do what he wanted.

166
00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:58,600
Speaker 1: I mean, it took a lot of jaw owning, but ultimately,

167
00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,440
Speaker 1: for example and support in solidarity and putting pressure on

168
00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,440
Speaker 1: the Soviet Union over Poland, we are a pretty unified

169
00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:06,200
Speaker 1: Western front.

170
00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,640
Speaker 3: Yeah. And actually, one of the important points that we

171
00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:15,839
Speaker 3: make in the book that is essential to our strategy,

172
00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:21,200
Speaker 3: both regarding Russia and regarding China, is to ask our

173
00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:26,520
Speaker 3: allies to do significantly more, but also that we in

174
00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:32,280
Speaker 3: the United States take our defense obligations much more seriously.

175
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,720
Speaker 3: So we look, for example, at the latest Biden National

176
00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:43,439
Speaker 3: Defense Appropriations Act, that defense budget increases by one percent nominal,

177
00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,680
Speaker 3: which in real terms is a cut. And if you

178
00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:51,480
Speaker 3: look at the projection to thirty four, defense expenses as

179
00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,760
Speaker 3: a percent of GDP go down from three point two

180
00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:57,280
Speaker 3: to three point three now to two point four percent,

181
00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,000
Speaker 3: it is shocking. If we are in a new Cold War,

182
00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:05,040
Speaker 3: which we in our book assume, then we need to

183
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,480
Speaker 3: have defense spending that is comparable to what we had

184
00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:12,000
Speaker 3: in the previous Cold War, and we need our European

185
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:16,120
Speaker 3: allies and our Asian allies to increase their expensive two

186
00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,000
Speaker 3: levels comparable to the previous Cold War as well.

187
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:25,319
Speaker 1: Wouldn't that imply a pretty substantial increase in places in Germany?

188
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,560
Speaker 2: Yes, well, NATO allies have all agreed to spend two

189
00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,240
Speaker 2: percent on their GDP by the end of this year.

190
00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,920
Speaker 2: It's expected that only eighteen of the thirty two will

191
00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,640
Speaker 2: have met that mark, and so that means that one

192
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,520
Speaker 2: third of the alliance is not meeting their commitments. Moreover,

193
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,640
Speaker 2: NATO introduced new regional plans at the Vilnia summit this year,

194
00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,960
Speaker 2: essentially the first serious defense plans for defending NATO since

195
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,880
Speaker 2: the end of the Cold War. Outside estimates by the

196
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:54,720
Speaker 2: economists and others project that to meet the capabilities requirements

197
00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,880
Speaker 2: in those plans, the NATO allies are going to have

198
00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,000
Speaker 2: to spend something like three percent of their GDP on defense,

199
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,280
Speaker 2: and so they're not even close that is what they

200
00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,319
Speaker 2: spent during the Cold War. You're right that Reagan was

201
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,720
Speaker 2: good to get them to step up. Trump was good

202
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,720
Speaker 2: at getting them to step up. People complained about his rhetoric,

203
00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 2: but if you look at the data, the biggest increases

204
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,400
Speaker 2: recent increases in European defense spending came under Trump. They

205
00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,560
Speaker 2: actually were then reduced under Biden initially before coming back

206
00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,800
Speaker 2: up after Russia's further invasion. And already we see that

207
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:27,160
Speaker 2: some of Trump's recent statements that are causing consternation in

208
00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,840
Speaker 2: some capitals are having the intended effect, with European countries

209
00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,000
Speaker 2: agreeing to spend more and Germany announcing just in the

210
00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,160
Speaker 2: past few weeks that they will hit two percent for

211
00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,640
Speaker 2: the first time since the Cold War this year. So

212
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,520
Speaker 2: I think that both Trump and Reagan we're good at

213
00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 2: getting the allies to step up and do the right thing.

214
00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,240
Speaker 3: Also, MISSUS Speaker Matt and I wrote recently an article

215
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:52,000
Speaker 3: together with General Todd Walters, who was NATO Supreme Allied

216
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,520
Speaker 3: Commander in Europe, and we make the argument in this

217
00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,520
Speaker 3: article that we should ask our European allies to spend

218
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:03,719
Speaker 3: three percent. Already, at the Villainius Native Summit, there was

219
00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,880
Speaker 3: a discussion that two percent is not sufficient, it should

220
00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,640
Speaker 3: be two, two and a half and more. And I

221
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 3: am puzzled on the reaction of the Biden administration after

222
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:18,280
Speaker 3: President Dudhah of Poland visited the White House and said

223
00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,520
Speaker 3: that the European country should spend three percent or more.

224
00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:27,040
Speaker 3: Poland is at four percent. The response from the spokesman

225
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:31,560
Speaker 3: of the State Department was, that's quote overly ambitious. Let's

226
00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:35,040
Speaker 3: get everybody to two percent and then we should talk.

227
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:40,520
Speaker 3: They are in an existential threat situation where Russia is

228
00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:45,000
Speaker 3: started the largest war in Europe since the Second World War?

229
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,079
Speaker 3: Why would we stop them if they are encouraged by

230
00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,959
Speaker 3: another European country to spend more in Europe.

231
00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:55,000
Speaker 1: I'll go on a limb here. Why do you think

232
00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:59,360
Speaker 1: the Biden administration adopts policies like this? I mean, what's

233
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:00,600
Speaker 1: the world view behind it?

234
00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:05,320
Speaker 3: I'll give you two guesses. I'll let Matt make his guesses.

235
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:11,280
Speaker 3: One guess is that in the Biden administration they know

236
00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 3: that the projected defense expenses for the United States in

237
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 3: a democratic administration will go below three percent. So if

238
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,520
Speaker 3: we are not going to be a three percent, on

239
00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,080
Speaker 3: what basis are we asking other people to be a

240
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,080
Speaker 3: three percent? That's one possibility. The other is the proposal

241
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,880
Speaker 3: came from Dudah, who is represents a conservative party that

242
00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,080
Speaker 3: the Biden administration doesn't lack.

243
00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:38,440
Speaker 1: Matt, what's your take, y'all?

244
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 2: Add a quick third, what does it mean to support allies?

245
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,120
Speaker 2: I think in the Trump administration we saw that it

246
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,960
Speaker 2: was tough love, sometimes tough rhetoric, but to try to

247
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,200
Speaker 2: get them to not persist in mistakes and do the

248
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,200
Speaker 2: right thing. I think in the Biden administration and sometimes

249
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,960
Speaker 2: among Democrats, having happy talk is saying nice things about

250
00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 2: your allies, is getting along at meetings is what it

251
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,200
Speaker 2: means to support allies. I think they thought that two

252
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:04,760
Speaker 2: percent is already controversial. A third of the NATO allies

253
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,680
Speaker 2: are not spending two percent, and so saying now we

254
00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 2: should do three percent would just be too provocative, would

255
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 2: make for difficult conversations in European capitals, and so they

256
00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:34,000
Speaker 2: wanted to avoid the controversy.

257
00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,240
Speaker 1: You talk about a new Cold War in your minds,

258
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 1: what are the primary parallels and what are the primary

259
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 1: differences between the first and second Cold Wars.

260
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,080
Speaker 3: I'm a huge admirer of use. I read several books

261
00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,720
Speaker 3: that you wrote, and I'm a constant follower of your

262
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 3: New World podcast, and I do remember you, by the way,

263
00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:02,560
Speaker 3: after nine eleven one of the TV programs, and I

264
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 3: remember what you said, it's a time for clarity. You're

265
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,840
Speaker 3: either with us or you are with a terrorists, and

266
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,240
Speaker 3: I remember your gesturesult you're either here or you're there.

267
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:19,640
Speaker 3: Clarity is extraordinarily important, and this is something that Reagan want.

268
00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:26,760
Speaker 3: Clarity gives you an intellectual weapon to go in a

269
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 3: dangerous world and figure out what you're going to do.

270
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 3: What is extraornally important right now is to figure out

271
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 3: if we are in a new Cold War or not,

272
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:43,920
Speaker 3: because if we are out of this premise, follow policies

273
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 3: that are different from the policies that we have today,

274
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 3: for example, defending the border. We are talking about defense spending.

275
00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 3: That's fine, that's one thing that we need to do,

276
00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 3: but there are these other things. What are we doing

277
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 3: the border. I was shocked to find out the other

278
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:08,080
Speaker 3: day there are thirty five thousand Chinese citizens that they've

279
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:12,600
Speaker 3: entered into the United States unverified their background. We don't

280
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,200
Speaker 3: know who they are through the southern border. Imagine thirty

281
00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,840
Speaker 3: five thousand Soviet citizens coming into the United States in

282
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:24,280
Speaker 3: the first Cold War. Similarly, on the energy policies and

283
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 3: so on and so forth. So when we compare this

284
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 3: Cold War with the previous Cold War, we knew who

285
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:36,560
Speaker 3: our adversary is and our policies to face the adversary

286
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 3: that we had in the first Cold War. We're consistent

287
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,199
Speaker 3: they were obvious and there was a lot of understanding

288
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 3: because there was leadership that understood that we were in

289
00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,359
Speaker 3: a Cold war. I think this clarity is missing at this.

290
00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 2: Point by saying it's a new Cold War, we're not

291
00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 2: saying it's exactly like the old Cold War. Of course,

292
00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 2: just like World War One and World War Two are different,

293
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 2: there are similarities that are important. They're both world wars,

294
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 2: So yes, there are differences here. There's greater economic interdependence

295
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,920
Speaker 2: between the United States and China than there was between

296
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 2: the United States and the Soviet Union, but there are similarities.

297
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,119
Speaker 2: It's a contest for the future of global order between

298
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 2: the United States and its democratic allies in the free

299
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 2: world and a genocidal dictatorship on the other side. And

300
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,199
Speaker 2: so the states couldn't be higher. And that's what we

301
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 2: mean by calling it a new Code war.

302
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 1: If you're doing a comparative analysis, as opponents, how would

303
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 1: you compare the strengths and weaknesses of the Soviet Union

304
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 1: at its peak and China and recision pain.

305
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 3: Let me start by saying that when I found out

306
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:43,880
Speaker 3: that will be on your program. I re read your

307
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 3: book Trump Versus China. I know that you are viewing

308
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 3: the challenge that we have from China as comparable to

309
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 3: the four other great challenges in our history, the way

310
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,560
Speaker 3: you talk about Ittionary War, the Civil War, the Second

311
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 3: World War, and the Cold War. China is much stronger

312
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 3: than the Soviet Union economically, but at the same time

313
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 3: it has the same pathologies that the Soviet Union has

314
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 3: because it is an authoritarian system that does not allow

315
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 3: self correction without dramatic convulsions, and it kills innovation. I

316
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 3: know you're a historian and to love and know these things.

317
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 3: The Soviet Union was ahead of the United States in

318
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 3: space technology, for example, but then they lost it. They

319
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 3: had a very strong economy, they produced highly sophisticated things,

320
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,720
Speaker 3: but then they lost it. The People's Republic of China

321
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 3: right now seems to be ahead and is ahead in

322
00:19:52,880 --> 00:20:00,439
Speaker 3: many areas, but their economy cannot for long y the

323
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 3: vitality that it had during that it acquired during the

324
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 3: Dank Show Pink period in the top heavy again high

325
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,639
Speaker 3: control from the center in the Shijing Pink period, and

326
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 3: we are already seeing the GDP growth was ten percent

327
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 3: in the dank show pink period. Granted from a lower basis,

328
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 3: but it is now five percent, maybe four percent. People

329
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 3: doubt even the four percent because they lie on the numbers.

330
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 3: So it is formidable in many ways, but like the

331
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 3: Soviet Union longer term, they are weak.

332
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:35,479
Speaker 1: Not doing they have anything.

333
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 2: I agree with dan And I think this is one

334
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 2: of our great strengths is our institutions, and that their

335
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,399
Speaker 2: autocratic system is their greatest weakness. We've seen time and

336
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: time again she prioritized his own political control over China's

337
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,639
Speaker 2: economic performance, and we're seeing the results with Chinese growth

338
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 2: slowing and as dandpoints out, maybe low or maybe non

339
00:20:56,320 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 2: existing growth. A second, his aggressive foreign policy is getting

340
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 2: the rest of the world to balance against him. First

341
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: in the United States, with US after a twenty five

342
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,959
Speaker 2: year engagement strategy declaring great power competition with China our

343
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: foremost priority, the Europeans declaring China systemic rival, the Quad

344
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 2: and Aucus and other proto alliances forming in Asia, and

345
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 2: then militarily, their greatest weakness is that they fear their

346
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 2: own people more than their adversary, and they spend more

347
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 2: on domestic repression than on their military. So if you

348
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 2: just follow the money. They fear their own people more

349
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 2: than the US Department of Defense. So they are a

350
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 2: serious adversary. They're dangerous. We should take them seriously. But

351
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 2: just like Reagan understood that we have strengths, the Soviet

352
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 2: Union has weaknesses, if we force them to compete, we

353
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: can prevail. I think the same is true here. We

354
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 2: have real strengths, they have real weaknesses. If we press them,

355
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: we can win the new Cold War.

356
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 1: So the process of thinking all this through, Part of

357
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 1: what I'm struck with is that the Chinese in the Russians,

358
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: then I would throw in Iran in North Korea. We

359
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 1: don't take the threat of nuclear war seriously enough. That's

360
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 1: one of the factors here that in a way elevates

361
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 1: North Korea and Iran into being very major players, beyond

362
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 1: any conventional war capability. Just because the extraordinary impact of

363
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons would be so devastating, to what extent does

364
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 1: that have to be factored into how we think through

365
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 1: our national security strategy.

366
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 2: Maybe I'll take this one first, if you don't mind.

367
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 2: Dan and I've had the honor of serving currently on

368
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 2: a US Congressional Commission on Strategic Posture, and we delivered

369
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: our unanimous recommendations six Democrats, six Republicans to Congress in November.

370
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 2: And this was the main challenge we were dealing with

371
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: is for the first time in US history, the United

372
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 2: States has to deal with not one peer nuclear power,

373
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 2: but two peer nuclear powers, as China engages as in

374
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: the massive nuclear build up, and then as you point out,

375
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 2: Misters a Rod in North three also as North Korea

376
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 2: as a nuclear rival in Iran could soon be a

377
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 2: nuclear rival. And so I think what this means is

378
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: that once again nuclear deterrence needs to be an important

379
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 2: part of US defense strategy. And our commission report calls

380
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: essentially for the first US strategic forces build up since

381
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 2: the end of the Cold War, calls for more non

382
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: strategic nuclear weapons in Europe and Asia like during the

383
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 2: First Cold War, and for the first time in history,

384
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 2: calls for a homeland missile defense to deal with Russia

385
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 2: and China. And so I think this is another area

386
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 2: where there's a Reagan Trump fusion. Of course, Reagan sponted

387
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 2: a defense build up in the nineteen eighties focused on

388
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: strategic forces. His idea of having a star Wars missile

389
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: defense plan really frightened the Soviets. And I think that

390
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 2: helped to in the first Cold War. I think this

391
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 2: is where Trump's instincts are as well. He developed two

392
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 2: new low yield nuclear weapons to deal with Russia, called

393
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 2: for a nuclear arsenal quote at the top of the pack,

394
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 2: and for a quote state of the art missile defense system.

395
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: And so it would be nice so if we're interne

396
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 2: world where we could reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, which

397
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 2: is what Biden says he wants to do, But unfortunately,

398
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 2: I think once again the United States needs to strengthen

399
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 2: its strategic forces to deal with these serious challenges.

400
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 1: Dan, what's your take.

401
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 3: The only thing I would add to this is that

402
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 3: it makes it doubly important to be extraordinarily clear that

403
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 3: it is intolerable for Iran to become a nuclear power.

404
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 3: Iran has a nuclear program that is clearly not designed

405
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 3: for peaceful purposes. It is enriching to a level that

406
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 3: is unnecessary for peaceful use, and it's developing missile capabilities

407
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: that are becoming dangerous to the United States, not just

408
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: to its region. So it is developing intercontinental missiles, which

409
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 3: it doesn't need. So it is very important to be

410
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 3: clear that this will be intolerable. Number Onenumber two. Trump

411
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 3: was right to get out of the JCPOA agreement. He

412
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 3: was right to have maximum economic pressure on Iran. At

413
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 3: the end of the Trump term, their foreign exchange reserves

414
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:19,680
Speaker 3: where four billion. Now there are thirty five billion because

415
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 3: sanctions are not being imposed. Iran needs to be constrained

416
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 3: economically in the hope that the Iranian people will overthrow

417
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 3: the regime of the Mulas, not that if they have

418
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 3: less money they will invest in nuclear capabilities. They will

419
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 3: invest whatever little money they have, look at North Korea.

420
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 3: But we need to have this two track policy on

421
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 3: Iran to make very clear that military means will be

422
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 3: used if they get close to develop nuclear capabilities threatening

423
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: the United States Number one, Number two constraining them economically.

424
00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:00,040
Speaker 1: Aren't they already at least some counts with an a

425
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: matter of weeks anytime they want to build a weapon.

426
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, the US Department of Defense has said that their

427
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,239
Speaker 2: breakout time is twelve days, so that's concerning. But what

428
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 2: they mean by that is that it's a conditional twelve days.

429
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 2: It's not that they'll have nuclear weapons in twelve days.

430
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 2: But if the Supreme Leader made the decision right now

431
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: to sprint and produce as much weapons grade uranium as possible.

432
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 2: He would have enough fuel for his first bomb within

433
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 2: twelve days. So we're running out of time, but we

434
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: haven't run out of time yet. And so what I

435
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 2: want to be hearing from the President is that all

436
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: options are on the table. Military options are on the table,

437
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: that they need to come to negotiate to put real

438
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 2: limits on their program or else the pressure will continue

439
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 2: to build it. And instead, I think we don't really

440
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 2: have a very clear strategy right now. I think the

441
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: Biden administration thought they were going to get back into

442
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 2: the Iran deal, the nuclear deal. The ir audience clearly

443
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 2: have different ideas, and now I'm not quite sure what

444
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 2: the strategy is. But I think Dan's right. Returning to

445
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 2: the maximum pressure strategy that the Trump administration put in

446
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: place would be the next best step.

447
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 1: When you look ahead, how do we disengage from China

448
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: and recenter our economy so we have no gaps in

449
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: logistics or other kind of production based on Chinese policies.

450
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: If you take seriously that we are in a strategic competition,

451
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 1: don't we have to have pretty dramatic shift in how

452
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: we think about trade with China and what we're prepared

453
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: to do to minimize that trade and maximize our own

454
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: capacity to produce things.

455
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: There are a lot of people who object to the

456
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 3: term decoupling. In our book, we use the term selective decoupling.

457
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 3: We also use the term de risking. But the reality

458
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 3: is that both countries, both the People's Republic of China

459
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: and the United States, have been in the process of

460
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 3: selective decoupling for several years now. There is a growing

461
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 3: recognition in the United States that it is unacceptable to,

462
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 3: for example, depend on antibiotics to the ninety percent of

463
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,959
Speaker 3: our antibiotics are either coming from China or depend on

464
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 3: Chinese raw materials. That's unacceptable. There are also rare earth

465
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 3: on which we have a great dependence on them. At

466
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 3: the same time, we recognize that we cannot allow Chinese

467
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 3: companies to invest in the United States. We have a

468
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: Cephius program, but there is a growing recognition that it's

469
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 3: not just Chinese investment in the US, but also US

470
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 3: investments in China, sort of reverse cephios that we need

471
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 3: to do. And there is a realization on that. But

472
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 3: guess what for Ever since Xijin Pink became president, he

473
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 3: has had a policy that is publicly announced of increased

474
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 3: reliance in China on Chinese companies and reducing their dependence

475
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 3: on US companies and Western companies in general. So both

476
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: countries have been already moving apart sort of in a

477
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 3: natural process, as the tensions between the two countries have

478
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 3: been increasing. And this process will continue, and it will

479
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 3: continue in an accelerated manner because Chinese is becoming more

480
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 3: and more obviously an adversarial nation, and even the Biden

481
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 3: administration recognizes and has taken steps, for example, in the

482
00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 3: high end chips, to not allow the Chinese to have

483
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 3: access to them because they can be used for military purposes.

484
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: In the book, we lay out a three part strategy

485
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 2: for thinking about selective decoupling from China. So one, we

486
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: argue there are areas of sensitive national security concern technology

487
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: other areas where we do need a hard, complete decoupling.

488
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: There's a second category where it's not a national security issue,

489
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 2: but China's cheating on international trading rules, film industry, and

490
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: other things. And so there we argue we need to

491
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 2: punch back with countervailing measures and tariffs, just like President

492
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 2: Trump did. Then, third, and finally we argue that there

493
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 2: are areas where trade can continue. If China wants to

494
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: buy American soybeans, if Americans want to buy T shirts

495
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 2: made in China, that's fine. And so I think by

496
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: promoting these three part strategy, we can protect our national

497
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 2: security interest while continuing to allow some trade to continue.

498
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: That's a rational long term strategy for China. But isn't

499
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 1: part of the complexity here that you have an immediate

500
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 1: short term strategy with Russia which involves a great deal

501
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: of kinetic activity. Well, at the same time, you're trying

502
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: to modulate a sort of diplomatic, economic, and cultural strategy

503
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 1: of China, and you're asking the same National Security Council

504
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: and the same State Department to have sort of a

505
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: schizophrenic ability to shift back and forth between those two

506
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 1: really different worlds. Isn't that an additional complexity that we

507
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: did not face in the Reagan years.

508
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 3: Yes, that's true. But we live in the world that

509
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 3: we live and we need to adapt to it. This

510
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,959
Speaker 3: is why a concept that we introduce in the book

511
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: that we think is important is we introduce the concept

512
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 3: of the new Axis of Evil. Just like in the

513
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 3: previous Cold War, we had the Soviet Union, and we

514
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: called them their satellites. And then we had countries that

515
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 3: were sympathetic to the Soviet Union. And this time we

516
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 3: have the new access of evil. And I find it

517
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 3: fascinating how many terms from the previous core are finding

518
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 3: new usefulness. We have again a new free world. We

519
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 3: have again our adversaries, and we have again a new

520
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 3: non aligned movement. We have a group of countries, lots

521
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 3: of countries, all of them developing countries that refuse to

522
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 3: take a clear position when Article one in the Charter

523
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 3: of the United Nations was clearly violated, and you said, ah,

524
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 3: we are doing trade with them. They helped us in

525
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 3: the colonization. We have some friends there. We'll let it pass.

526
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 3: And it's shocking our sensibilities. But again it's the world

527
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 3: that we have. Yeah, there are complexities.

528
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: It seems to me what you're suggesting is that these

529
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: two challenges Russia and China, and then the secondary stage.

530
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: In fact, we've done it once before. We can interact

531
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: together and we can successfully prosecute a campaign to minimize

532
00:32:55,800 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: Chinese capabilities and to condenced Russia the violence is not

533
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 1: productive for themselves. And at the same time to convince

534
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: Iram North Korea, that there are no survivable techniques for

535
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: using the weapons they do in the sense that both

536
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: of you, while you're concerned, you're actually optimist.

537
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 2: Yes, that's right. So two points. First, on the threat,

538
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 2: I think it's a mistake to think of Russian and

539
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: China as separate threats that increasingly these threats are interconnected.

540
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 2: Russia and China have declared a no limits partnership. China

541
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 2: is supporting Russia's war in Ukraine economically, diplomatically, and through

542
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 2: other means. Russia, China, Iran have conducted joint military exercises.

543
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 2: In fact, the collaboration between this kind of new axis

544
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 2: of autocracies is even greater than the collaboration between the

545
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 2: Axis powers and the run up to the Second World War.

546
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 2: And so I think we should be very concerned about

547
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: the interconnections, but ultimately we are confident. And one thing

548
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 2: to look at is just capability. And many international relations

549
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 2: scholars use GDP share of global GDP as a good measure

550
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,959
Speaker 2: of power. The United States still possesses twenty five percent

551
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 2: of global GDP. That's where we were in the nineteen sixties.

552
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 2: So people who say the United States is declining are incorrect.

553
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: We're right where we've been for decades. Russia, China, orn

554
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 2: North Korea together have about twenty percent of global GDP.

555
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 2: So even if it was just the United States taking

556
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 2: on the four I think we could do it. Fortunately,

557
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 2: we don't have to do it on our own. We

558
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 2: have more than thirty formal treaty allies. Together, we have

559
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 2: something like sixty percent of global GDP. So if it's

560
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: the free world against this new access of autocracies, we're

561
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 2: by far in the stronger position. And if we can

562
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,360
Speaker 2: get our act together and follow some of the strategies

563
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 2: we recommend in the book, we think that we can

564
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 2: once again prevail.

565
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 3: I know from your writings Dear to your Heart, which

566
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 3: is American exceptionalism. Just like in the First Cold War,

567
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:56,240
Speaker 3: America's ideological superiority was an important factor in the victory,

568
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:02,839
Speaker 3: and Reagan was very clear about and it also inspired

569
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 3: the Polish resistance against their local tyranny and the Soviet tyranny.

570
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 3: America is still the shining city on the hill. We

571
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:16,280
Speaker 3: have this huge problem with millions of people crossing our border.

572
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 3: The Chinese don't have that problem. Nobody is trying to

573
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 3: cross in the millions the Chinese border, nobody aspires so

574
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 3: that because America is still the place where people aspire

575
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 3: to come and live. And by the way, I'm an

576
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 3: example of that, it defected from communist Romania, so I'm

577
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 3: an example. We still have this ideological superiority. But we

578
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 3: need leaders to call people to this noble duty to

579
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 3: defend what America stands for. And we need people who

580
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 3: are not dwelling on America's shortcomings but stress that we

581
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 3: have been and are and we continue to be a

582
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 3: force for good in worked.

583
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: I think your book when they lose Republican foreign policy

584
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 1: in the New Cold War and their whole effort to

585
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: build a Trump Reagan fusion could not come at a

586
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 1: more important time. I think there are a lot of

587
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: people who are very confused and don't understand because they

588
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: have a misinformed view of what Reagan was all about.

589
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: They don't realize how parallel in many ways both the

590
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: challenges and the responses, and how much Reagan and Trump

591
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: actually could have collaborated. Because it's not like Trump is

592
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 1: a radical break from Reagan. He's a radical break from

593
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 1: an establishment which wants to appease Iran, A peace China,

594
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 1: a peace, Russia, an ignore North Korea, and Trump, like Reagan,

595
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: I think, combines idealism with a level of realism that's

596
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 1: really important. And this book could not come at a

597
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 1: better time because there are people, smart people actively trying

598
00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: to understand what's going on and why it's different. And

599
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 1: I really want to thank you both for joining me.

600
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: Your new book is important, We Win, They Lose is

601
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 1: available on Amazon and the bookstores everywhere, and we will

602
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: certainly link to it on our show page. So I

603
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 1: just really am grateful you too, who spend time with

604
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: us talking about this.

605
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 3: Honored to talk to you, mister speaker.

606
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 2: Thank you very much, it's a pleasure to be here.

607
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,720
Speaker 1: Thank you to my guests Matthew Kronig and Dan mcgrea.

608
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: You can get a link to their new book, We Win,

609
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: They Lose, Republican Foreign Policy in the New Cold War

610
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 1: on our show page at newtsworld dot com. News World

611
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 1: is produced by Ginger three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive

612
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 1: producer is Guernsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The

613
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 1: artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special

614
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingrid Sweet sixty. If you've

615
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast

616
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 1: and rate us with five stars and give us a

617
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,479
Speaker 1: review so others can learn what it's all about. Right now,

618
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: listeners of neutrald consign up from my three free weekly

619
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 1: columns at ginglishwo sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich.

620
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 1: This is neutrald