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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing Joe.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting it to cash to stop. We'll see most

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Speaker 2: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabodity you want to pull. And

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Speaker 2: we are underway. What's going on? Everybody? Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. I am your host, Chris Raybond. This

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Speaker 2: is our NFL Week one betting preview for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Today we're gonna talk about sides, totals, moneyline, underdog parlays,

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Speaker 2: added a new segment, Anytime Touchdown Parlay as well, and

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Speaker 2: of course I'm gonna build our Sunday six pack of

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Speaker 2: best bets. We're gonna do it with none other and

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Speaker 2: to help with my co host, a Prime Minister of

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Speaker 2: Degenerate Nation, Stucky for the seventh consecutive season.

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Speaker 3: Good to see you, brother, good to see you. It's

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Speaker 3: good to be back. Let's have a season. Baby. I'm

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Speaker 3: so excited to just look Thursday night, Friday night, but

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Speaker 3: then especially Sunday, that's just a full slate of games. Again.

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Speaker 3: I cannot wait. I am chomping at the bit to

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Speaker 3: get this season started. So let's roll, baby.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I won't go away you betting on the Titans

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Speaker 2: any longer. We're gonna jump right into the six packs.

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Speaker 2: I just want to make a couple of updates for

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Speaker 2: the show this season. We're not gonna do Thursday night

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Speaker 2: football because that just kind of drags things out. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna jump right into the six pack, same thing, best

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Speaker 2: of the rest. At the end, we're just gonna spend

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Speaker 2: the time on the bets we love and try to

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Speaker 2: give you guys more content for the bets that we're

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Speaker 2: actually betting, and try to trim the fat. And also

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Speaker 2: this in the Action Network podcast, we'll have a new

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Speaker 2: episode out every Friday morning. It will be me, it'll

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Speaker 2: be Sean Kerner. We're gonna be talking more anytime touchdown scorers.

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Speaker 2: So if you like better touchdown, please check out those

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Speaker 2: new episodes as well, starting this Friday. Had some real

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Speaker 2: good success last postseason with that, so excited to be

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Speaker 2: back on that. But we jumping right into.

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Speaker 1: It Thursday for Actions, Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 2: Week one Sunday six Pack twenty twenty five. If you're

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Speaker 2: new to the show, we score it. Stop, what is it?

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Speaker 2: It's two for our first two and then one for

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Speaker 2: our third. Now is our doing? Yep, and then a

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Speaker 2: point for our total. You sweep on and get an

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Speaker 2: extra point, so we'll keep score. Got the edge last year,

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Speaker 2: probably just because of the Titans stuff. But I'm I'll

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Speaker 2: kick us off. For my first pick of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five Sunday six pack, I'm going with the New

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Speaker 2: York Giants plus six at the Washington Commanders. Three reasons

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Speaker 2: I like the Giants in this spot. Number one, you

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Speaker 2: look at these matchups last season. Washington won by three

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Speaker 2: and Washington won by five, three touchdowns to Russ in

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Speaker 2: Washington's game against them as well, so you also have that.

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Speaker 2: And now I think Washington could stumble a little bit

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Speaker 2: on offense. I think both of these teams are approved.

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Speaker 2: But the second thing is the Giants. They added abdu Carter,

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Speaker 2: they added a divo, they added Howling at safety. They

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Speaker 2: got pretty good players at every level of that defense.

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Speaker 2: But Washington has not practiced as a unit on offense.

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Speaker 2: And remember they've added new pieces on the line, They've

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Speaker 2: added new pieces wide receiver with Debo and Wayne, They've

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Speaker 2: added They've kind of remade their running back room a

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Speaker 2: little bit as well, so that could come back to Biden,

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Speaker 2: especially early in the season. And then there is going

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Speaker 2: to be some natural regression with the Commanders. They had

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Speaker 2: a historic season in terms of conversion rate on third

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Speaker 2: and fourth downs. Jayden Daniels, though on early downs his

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Speaker 2: numbers were just averaged twentieth in success rates. So I

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Speaker 2: do think there's gonna be some natural regression. Even if

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's I think it's lazy analysis. People

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Speaker 2: are kind of saying, oh, jend and Danias might follow

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Speaker 2: that Stroud arc. I mean, he could, but I think

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Speaker 2: that's just kind of lazy. But I do think just

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Speaker 2: naturally you'll see kind of a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: comeback down to earth for him. And Week one time

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Speaker 2: to bet dogs. Maybe Week one divisional underdog sixty seven

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Speaker 2: and forty four sixty percent against the spread over the

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Speaker 2: past two decades. That is courtesy of action webs So

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Speaker 2: my first pick is the g Men.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I might need seven year to get involved. It's funny.

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Speaker 3: I'm the fader of Washington Washington week one, so I

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Speaker 3: might look c live. I might get involved at six,

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Speaker 3: but I don't choke too much value. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: look the Commanders. I think that they're going to have

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Speaker 3: a rougher season them anything. There's been eight hype teams

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Speaker 3: you know that went from like one hundred since twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 3: They went from like one hundred and fifty one one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one. Then when they sud wild

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Speaker 3: a year prior to under twenty to one, six of

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Speaker 3: those eight that you're finished under five hundred. I'm curious

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Speaker 3: a couple of matches. I'm curious to watch your neighbors

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Speaker 3: who ate up Washington last year? What does Latimore Latimore?

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Speaker 3: I think is the key to that Washington defense? And

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Speaker 3: who's that second quarter for the Giants? Is it Flot?

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Speaker 3: Is it Banks? There's a reason banks aren't open on Sundays.

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Speaker 3: I think they'd better serve going with flat And then

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Speaker 3: what does Debo have left in the tank? But you're right,

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Speaker 3: Road Divisional Dogs also above a field goal sixty percent

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Speaker 3: Week one. I had a bet it. I'd side with

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Speaker 3: your Giants, but I wish I would have grabbed that

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Speaker 3: number earlier. I know that you did got some seven plus,

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Speaker 3: but so lean that way, but having quite got there myself.

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Speaker 2: I'm ashamed of you Stack like this. This is everything

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Speaker 2: you love about a play. It's the g Man, You're

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Speaker 2: the g Man undertaker, It's the fade Cliff, It's the

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Speaker 2: Week one. Doug's like, you got it, Come on, man,

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Speaker 2: you got to you gotta join. I'm got it again

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Speaker 2: at six I Betty, I'm under I'm under five with

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Speaker 2: this one. I just think there's too many question marks

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Speaker 2: early in the year for Washington. But where you going?

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Speaker 2: What's your first pick?

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Speaker 3: Good to see you coming around on my Washington takes

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Speaker 3: all right. For my first pick of the week one

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack, I'm going with my Green Bay Packers

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Speaker 3: minus two and a half at home against the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 3: If you want to go into trends both teams, you

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Speaker 3: can make a case for both teams. Dan Campbell's eleven

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Speaker 3: and three against the spread in September golf is eight

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Speaker 3: to o against the spread in Week one, but laflores

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Speaker 3: fifteen and three against the spread the first three games

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Speaker 3: of the year, including seven to zero against the spread

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Speaker 3: at home over the first three games of the season.

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Speaker 3: Since twenty nineteen, he has been the most profitable coach

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Speaker 3: in the NFL. So you can make a case trend

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Speaker 3: wise for both teams should be an excellent game. But

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Speaker 3: I have to put my money where my mouth is.

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Speaker 3: I'm selling the Lions. I'm buying the Packers. I have

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Speaker 3: the Packers at home laying under a field goal in

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Speaker 3: Game one, and there's other reasons why I'm willing to

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Speaker 3: go there. Number One, I have the Packers power raided

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Speaker 3: ahead of the Lions coming into the season, and there's

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Speaker 3: no questions with their coordinators. There's no questions with the

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Speaker 3: interior the offensive line for Detroit. Now he's gonna have

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Speaker 3: basically three new positions up the front. Interior pressure. Talked

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Speaker 3: about this all he's an interior pressure against golf. Not good.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, they added Michael Parsons, that was

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Speaker 3: like kind of their one week length. We'll see if

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Speaker 3: he can go. I assume he's going to be able

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Speaker 3: to with his back issue, but that was kind of

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Speaker 3: the one area where they had to address. I talked

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Speaker 3: about it. I said, hey, I have on our previeu

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Speaker 3: pot there's a sneaky suspicion that's going to happen. And it

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Speaker 3: did curious to see how the corners come together for

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Speaker 3: green Bay with Hobbs, and I think they may better

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Speaker 3: serve going with him in the slot. It looks like

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Speaker 3: they really want to have Bullock there, So yeah, you

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Speaker 3: might see they're gonna checked tack the slot, which is

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Speaker 3: a little bit of a concern of mine. But the

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Speaker 3: nude coordinators GoF with potentially interior pressure, and this green

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Speaker 3: Bay team just primed for a huge bounce back this year.

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Speaker 3: I'm riding with green Bay, who did go zero to

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Speaker 3: two against Detroy last year. But the Lions in those

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Speaker 3: two games, one of them, Love was hurt, went six

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Speaker 3: of seven and fourth down, scored four touchdowns on those

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Speaker 3: six fourth down conversions, and both games were still close.

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Speaker 3: By the way, there was no Hotch or Parsons in

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Speaker 3: either one of those games, so that's worth noting. And

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Speaker 3: then the Lions are also more banged up, like there's

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Speaker 3: no Alee McNeil here. They lost one of their other

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Speaker 3: better defensive tackles for the year, Josh Patskell, one of

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Speaker 3: their death rush pieces. Some of their offensive linemen have

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Speaker 3: been dinged up, so they're a little bit more banged up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trusting this green Bay team that I'm all in

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Speaker 3: on this year and a Lions team that I think

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Speaker 3: takes a step back with some coordinator uncertainty, and I

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Speaker 3: think this is Green Bay's game, getting the pack Go,

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Speaker 3: Pack Go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm glad you and I had that conversation. I

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Speaker 2: hope everyone got to listen to that, that preview pod

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Speaker 2: because we were talking about Packers Super Bowl tickets right

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Speaker 2: then and there, and you you mentioned that, yeah, they

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Speaker 2: could make a they can make a big move. So

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Speaker 2: I went and grabbed it and uh, you know, like

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Speaker 2: kind of it's like half now, it's like right, so

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Speaker 2: that you know, that was valuable, you know, talking through

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Speaker 2: the giant situation as well. I got them at seven

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Speaker 2: and a half. So definitely some some good early weens there.

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Speaker 2: But I agree, and I think the Packers are onto something.

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Speaker 2: I think they're this is a team that's on the

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Speaker 2: brink and they're and they're starting to do the one

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Speaker 2: thing that kind of always plagued them, which is be

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Speaker 2: aggressive in the front office going out drafting wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: And then I actually liked, unconsciously optimistic about the corner

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Speaker 2: situation only because I see what they're trying to do.

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Speaker 2: We always talk about what's the future of the NFL

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Speaker 2: positional versatility right exactly, So why not get ahead of you.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's not like like ji aral Xander was

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Speaker 2: just a figment of our imaginations anyway. I know he's

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Speaker 2: done your your you're Ravens, so hopefully he does well.

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Speaker 2: But uh, for the Packers, he played seven games last year,

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Speaker 2: so this Parsons move could be just just massive for

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Speaker 2: them because they were a great defense in first year

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Speaker 2: a half week and they did not really have a

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Speaker 2: pass rush. Now you're gonna have You're not gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to double team Rashaan Gary. Uh. You mentioned it

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Speaker 2: the Lions having some issues on the line, and people

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Speaker 2: talk about the hutch Crew and how how good he's

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Speaker 2: been in practice. But another way to look at it

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Speaker 2: is the Lions offense probably wouldn't have even been able

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Speaker 2: to get into their plays against pressure. So like that's

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Speaker 2: kind of concerning because now you're gonna go up against

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Speaker 2: a formidable pass rush in the league one so and

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Speaker 2: you're not gonna have a hutch Row. It's just gonna

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Speaker 2: be uh garrity goff on the on the on the grass.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I uh, I like the Packers boats in

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Speaker 2: this spot and uh over the course of the year.

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Speaker 2: All right, for my second pick and the third overall

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Speaker 2: of the week one, twenty twenty five Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm rolling with the Atlanta Falcons plus two and a

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Speaker 2: half at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Number one.

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is just not in peak form right now.

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Speaker 2: They no, we're close, nowhere close on offense, get a

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Speaker 2: left tack with Tristan Wurfs out, Chris Godwin out, Jawn

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Speaker 2: McMillan out. So yes, you've got a Mecca Buca clutched

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Speaker 2: draft pick by Jason White who does a great job,

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Speaker 2: but John also.

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Speaker 3: Might not go. Yeah, Kaydatten, Buddy's questionable.

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Speaker 2: Injury on the injury report, seems like you'll probably go,

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Speaker 2: but not an idea to be banged up. Same thing

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Speaker 2: for Rashad White. And this is gonna be now your

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Speaker 2: first game host William Cohen, and we talk him up

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Speaker 2: a lot, so there could be some fallf here, especially

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Speaker 2: because he got so much out of a very similar

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Speaker 2: personnel grouping on that offensive line, So you could see

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Speaker 2: them take a step back even in the run game,

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Speaker 2: because he really got a lot of buying from them

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Speaker 2: last year, and then I think Atlanta, you know, every

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Speaker 2: year we're kind of hoping they finally put it together

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Speaker 2: on defense. Uh you know, we're not gonna bang our

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Speaker 2: heads against the wall. That would just be crazy. But

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Speaker 2: it's week one. This could be a BILO spot on

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Speaker 2: their defense. They did go out and add some edge rushers,

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Speaker 2: some youth importantly too, in the first round with with

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Speaker 2: Pearson Walker, they took a shot on Floyd and free

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Speaker 2: agency and then addressed the secondary and they.

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Speaker 3: Could start in the secondary.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so they there's gonna be a bunch a few

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Speaker 2: rookie starters at positions of need for them. So they're

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Speaker 2: a at least the potential for uh, you know, this

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Speaker 2: defense to be back because it was just so it's

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Speaker 2: been so bad and then you flip it over. Okay, well,

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Speaker 2: you know Tampa Bay, Atlanta's adding use Tampa Bay is

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Speaker 2: aging on defense. Now it's been a decent defense, but

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Speaker 2: with Vonte David Zero, you went out and got Hassan Reddick,

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Speaker 2: who was just bad last year. So I don't know

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Speaker 2: if that's gonna be able to take advantage of the

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Speaker 2: mcgarriat since for the Falcons there and I think this

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Speaker 2: Falcon team. You know, they played really well against the

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Speaker 2: Bucks defense last year. Now, granted it was Kirk Cousins,

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Speaker 2: but they won both games thirty six thirty and overtime

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Speaker 2: and a comeback, and then a thirty one to twenty

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Speaker 2: six a few weeks later, and against a banged up

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Speaker 2: Bucks squad, which is kind of the formula Bucks are incurrently,

256
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Speaker 2: So that was when the Bucks really showed slippergs in

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Speaker 2: that middle part of the year where yeah, they were

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Speaker 2: still able to do some things on offense. Now now

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Speaker 2: William Cohen's gone, so that's even up in the air,

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Speaker 2: but that's really where the Bucks were most vulnerable. So

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Speaker 2: you're kind of back in that same situation and Week

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Speaker 2: one divisional home underdogs sixty four percent against the spread

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Speaker 2: over the past two decades, So give me the Falcons

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Speaker 2: plus two and a half. This is one of those

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Speaker 2: lines that you know good, I mean, you're you're essentially

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Speaker 2: saying the Bucks are, you know, a whole different stratosphere

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Speaker 2: than Atlanta. I don't think there's that much separation, So

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Speaker 2: I don't I think there should be a lot closer

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Speaker 2: to pick them.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Falcons home field avanage has not been great

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Speaker 3: since twenty eighteen. Them in the St. Saints are falling

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Speaker 3: off there. Uh, Saints ivan had a winning season against

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Speaker 3: the spread since twenty eighteen, which is surprising you consider

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Speaker 3: you think of them as like a big home field avanger.

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Speaker 3: So they're still tickets out there down there for Norns

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Speaker 3: home opener. It's kind of sad what's happened to that crowd.

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Speaker 3: But Atlanta doesn't have the best crowd, best home field advantage,

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Speaker 3: and it's a divisional game. But yeah, this is assuming

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Speaker 3: that the Bucks are like a field goal, a field

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Speaker 3: goal slightly better than Falcons. These two teams were not

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Speaker 3: that far apart last year, and it's with a you know,

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Speaker 3: Cousins given away a couple of games. And I think

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Speaker 3: that the Falcons have improved their defense and the Bucks

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Speaker 3: aren't fully healthy. The biggest thing in this game, and

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Speaker 3: I don't know that. I think there's probably going to

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00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,880
Speaker 3: be a huge play one way or the other. Both

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Speaker 3: blind side tackles, who are one of the best in

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Speaker 3: the NFL at their position are out for the Falcons.

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Speaker 3: It's right tackle Caleb McGarry's one of the best right

290
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Speaker 3: tackles the NFL. He's been replaced. It was gonna be

291
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Speaker 3: Storm Norton, he's heard, who cares? You don't want Storm

292
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Speaker 3: Norton in there. It's gonna be Elijah Wilkinson. It's bad

293
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Speaker 3: left tackle, probably the best in the NFL. Tristan Worse,

294
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Speaker 3: he's out. It's gonna be Charlie Heck, that's bad. Probably

295
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Speaker 3: gonna be a big play, someone blowing up off the

296
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Speaker 3: edge that swings this game. But yeah, I just would

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Speaker 3: have been one of mine.

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Speaker 2: All right, stage a set r NFL Week one, all

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00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,480
Speaker 2: the bets that come with it, and now is the

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Speaker 2: perfect time to upgrade to an Action Pro subscription. It's

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Speaker 2: the only way to get real time pig alerts from myself, Stuck,

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Speaker 2: zero for twenty hours off for the full year, so

309
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Speaker 2: can go ahead. We got four of your second pick

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Speaker 2: in the fourth overall.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's for my second pick and the fourth overall

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Speaker 3: of the Week one Sunday six pack. I'm going with

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Speaker 3: another divisional home dog. Last year was the year the

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Speaker 3: favorites road favorites, when eighty and twenty eight straight up.

320
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Speaker 3: There were some things with the four down aggressives, but

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Speaker 3: I looked into it a lot. There's no reason why

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Speaker 3: I should be afraid of fading a team like the

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Speaker 3: Bengals laying five and a half on the road in

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Speaker 3: Week one against the divisional opponent their defense, Like you're

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Speaker 3: you're asking this Bengals team to win with margin by

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Speaker 3: seven loss. Essentially, I don't trust their defense to do that,

327
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Speaker 3: So I'm taking the Browns here. You mentioned some of

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Speaker 3: the numbers. I mean, Week one divisional home dogs twenty

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Speaker 3: three and seven against the spreads since twenty ten, ten

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Speaker 3: and two since twenty eighteen, eighteen, and four since twenty twelve,

331
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Speaker 3: and the Bengals historically have gotten off to slow starts.

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Speaker 3: Now Burrow wanted, he wasn't dealing with injury, and he

333
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:22,920
Speaker 3: got a little bit more work than usual, so maybe

334
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Speaker 3: that won't be an issue. But he's one to nine

335
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Speaker 3: straight up, three and seven against the spread in his

336
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,359
Speaker 3: first two games. Taylor is five and seven straight up

337
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 3: as a favorite in September. That's with Dalton and Burrow.

338
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 3: So there's some history here that says there might be

339
00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,439
Speaker 3: a chance that the Bengals start slow, But I ultimately

340
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Speaker 3: just don't trust their defense. There's still some issues on

341
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,760
Speaker 3: that offensive line, Like they're rolling with Patrick at guard.

342
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 3: The guards leave a lot to be desired, and this

343
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Speaker 3: Browns defense, the one thing they can do is they

344
00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,120
Speaker 3: can get pressure, and Burrow has struggled against this Browns

345
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Speaker 3: defense throughout his career. Newsom's gonna move to the outside

346
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,359
Speaker 3: with the injury to Emberson. We'll see if he can

347
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 3: have a bounce back season contract ye Ward will be

348
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,080
Speaker 3: on the other side, curious to see. Like the slot

349
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 3: position scares me a bit with most likely Mitchell, but

350
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,399
Speaker 3: this defense can still get pressure. Ward can hold his

351
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,720
Speaker 3: own when he's matched up with Chase and I think

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Speaker 3: that this Browns offense it's gonna be the Stefanski look.

353
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 3: It's just gonna be everything you'd expect, the Cole kitchen sink.

354
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,280
Speaker 3: And it's the Bengals defense, like anyone can move the

355
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 3: ball against them. So I have to take the points here.

356
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 3: With the Browns at home Week one, you have the

357
00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 3: best option at quarterback under center and Flacco like just

358
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,600
Speaker 3: block Hendrickson. I know they brought in Al Golden. I

359
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,160
Speaker 3: look at the cards he was dealt. I'm not sure

360
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,680
Speaker 3: how much he can do. Give me the Browns here.

361
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 3: I think they're super live to pull off the upset.

362
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 3: I think this will be close. And even if they're

363
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 3: down like ten late against this Bengals defense, like very

364
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 3: good chance they go right down the field get a

365
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 3: back door touchdown. But I think this will be close

366
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 3: throughout this This Browns defense will show up. I think

367
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 3: their secondary is going to bounce back this year. They

368
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 3: pretty much quit last year just given the quarterback situation,

369
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 3: so that might happen again. We don't know where things

370
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 3: are headed, but new season, new optimism in state, rival division,

371
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 3: rival home opener. I think taking the points here is

372
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 3: the move. So give me the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 2: A couple of things there. Number One, I like the

374
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 2: case he just made because I did bet this uh

375
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 2: again on a when we were doing our preview pod

376
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 2: and I was kind of getting ready to get out

377
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 2: of my position because I'm glad you kind of taught

378
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 2: me off the ledge there. But I do think I

379
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 2: do think the Bengals making a concerted effort, you know,

380
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 2: Berrow making a concerted effort to kind of get some

381
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 2: preseason work in is gonna help a little bit. But

382
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 2: I am worried about the Browns. I just think we

383
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 2: were a little too comfortable with this clown show like that,

384
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 2: Like it's Joe, It's a four year old Joe Flacco.

385
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 2: The their tackle is terrible. They have guys like Gage

386
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 2: Larvadane probably getting meaningful repsit receiver. They hate all their

387
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 2: running backs. They obviously are drafting for fit because so

388
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 2: they passed up on Henderson to get Jenkins and that

389
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 2: then they go and claim Rocket Sanders. They just at

390
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 2: least wanted Deontay Foreman or something like. I don't know

391
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 2: what it is with them, So I don't know if

392
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 2: this is all gonna work. But you're right, the Bengals defense,

393
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: even with Hendrickson, is still still exploitable. I do worry

394
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 2: about Flacco, though, so I'm not long on the Browns.

395
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 2: But this is the time, this is the time to

396
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 2: do it. So I'm gonna.

397
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,640
Speaker 3: Harold anytime touchdown. Baby.

398
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 2: Man. It's funny though, because people did say, you know, oh,

399
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: why would why are you betting it so early? And

400
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 2: I got a six. I don't know if the six

401
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: is coming back necessarily though. Five and a half, yeah, yeah,

402
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: you should wait.

403
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 3: But it's in the dead zone. It doesn't matter if

404
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 3: the tests pushes or losses, but wait to see if

405
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 3: it's six. But that is a field goal game.

406
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:57,360
Speaker 2: All right. Third pick, fifth overall of the week, Number one,

407
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five Sunday six pack the Jacksonville liam Cohones

408
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 2: minus three and a half the Jacksonville Jaguars minus three

409
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 2: and a half at home against the Panthers. And this

410
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 2: is one where you know, back in when lines first dropped,

411
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 2: I ended up betting the Jaguars team total over didn't

412
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 2: necessarily want to touch the spread, but I think the

413
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 2: developments over the past few days, I have really kind

414
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 2: of put this forward to Jacksonville edge here even though

415
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: Caroline is getting the hook. Now. First thing is I

416
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 2: think this three thing Number one, Rice Young was improved

417
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 2: down the stretch. That's obviously the most important thing for

418
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 2: the Panthers, But what was that driven by wide receivers

419
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: an offensive line wide receivers as in Adam Thwen got

420
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,640
Speaker 2: back healthy and was very productive, and Jaywen Cocher had

421
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 2: a little mini breakout down the stretch as well well.

422
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 2: They traded at him Thwen and Jaywen Coker got hurt,

423
00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 2: I think like the day after. So now he's on

424
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 2: he's out for this game. Bryce Young targeting Thewan and Cocher.

425
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 2: Last year, seventy one of ninety six, nine hundred and

426
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 2: seventy six yards, six point three percent, touchdown rate, ten

427
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,360
Speaker 2: point two yards in attempt, seventy four percent completions, very

428
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 2: good to everyone else. The completion rate drops twelve percent,

429
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: the yards per tech gets cut in half five point

430
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 2: four and the touchdown rate gets cut in half to

431
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:29,239
Speaker 2: three percent. So, uh, this could be catastrophic. It's kind

432
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 2: of fine under the radar a little bit, because you know,

433
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: Thewan is just an old slot receiver and Coker it

434
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 2: just has a cool name. But this is not good

435
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: for the Panthers offense, especially with Ikey Aquanu their left

436
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 2: tackle on might be the wrong side of questionable. We'll see,

437
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 2: but yeah, appendix issue. And then the right guard Damian

438
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 2: Lewis should play, but he's banged up with a shoulder,

439
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 2: which you know, not great for an interior alignment either.

440
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 2: So just yeah, not not because the Panthers A line

441
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 2: is the strength and that really helped young and it

442
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 2: might not be a strength in Week one, and that

443
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 2: is very good news for the Jaguars because what do

444
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 2: they need to to win with margin? They need a

445
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: team that's not just gonna bow over them their defense,

446
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 2: because I think their defense is is still gonna be shaky,

447
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 2: probably can't be worse than last year, but it's not

448
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 2: gonna be great right off the bat. However, we know

449
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 2: we are going to improve this team the Tampa Bay

450
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 2: squad last year by nine points and Carolina was the

451
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 2: worst defense in the NFL last year by dv Away.

452
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 2: Carolina still has many of the same issues. Derek Brown

453
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 2: is not gonna fix everything. Jasey Horn has still been

454
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 2: kind of in and out of practice. Josie Jeweler linebacker,

455
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 2: he's out again, so it's they're the same issues. They

456
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 2: did add some pieces, some young pieces. I think it's

457
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: gonna take time, but you know, Derek Brown is not

458
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 2: gonna be a cure off for the worst defense in

459
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 2: the league. So I think this is a situation where

460
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 2: the Jags it might be a closet game for a

461
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 2: little bit, but it will only take a couple of drives.

462
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 2: And I think he might see the bad version of

463
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 2: Bryce Young without Dewen and Koker, who were his two

464
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 2: top receivers by yardage, to drop off is just uh,

465
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,880
Speaker 2: just devastating without them. And Ted mcmillin's a contesting catch guys,

466
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 2: so it's no, there's no guarantees that he you know,

467
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 2: he's a difference maker right off the bat for this team.

468
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 2: And I think the Jags Altsill have the advantage of

469
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 2: what are they gonna do with Hunter? Uh special teams there,

470
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 2: They've been creative, so just a lot of small edges

471
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 2: as well, and they're at home. Gimme Jacksonville minus three

472
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: and a half. H I have this at about five now.

473
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 2: With all the developments for the Panthers.

474
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, Panthers not healthy. You have Liam Cohen effect, the

475
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 3: defensive scheme bump. They're gonna be They're gonna play a

476
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 3: scheme that's much better fit. I think Lawrence is gonna

477
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 3: benefit from the Cohen bump. And then, yeah, you mentioned

478
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 3: these injuries and the Panthers they're still gonna be really bad.

479
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 3: I thought about the over in this game. It was

480
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: a little worried. The Jacks are probably gonna go from

481
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 3: fast to slow and the Panthers aren't fast. Worries me

482
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 3: a bit. Panthers probably just trying to take away the

483
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 3: exposive play here. But I think the Jacks are gonna

484
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 3: get their points. But for my third pick and the

485
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 3: final of the Week one, twenty twenty five Sunday six pack,

486
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 3: I am going with the Tennessee Titans plus nine baby,

487
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: and get a nine out there. Not gonna matters for

488
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 3: the contest. Well, it's like we'll say eight and a half.

489
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 3: It's fine, you're gonna give me over a touchdown in

490
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 3: Week one of the NFL. I'm gonna hit it more

491
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: times than not. And I think the Titans are significantly

492
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 3: improved offensive line much better. Bringing the left tackle allows

493
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 3: late in the move to right tackle, more natural fit,

494
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 3: bring in a really good guard. Second year of a

495
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 3: good offensive line coach. Last year is a disaster. Quarterback

496
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 3: last year in absolute calamity. Well, now you have the

497
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: number one overall pick. All he has to do is

498
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 3: not just toss the ball to the other team, and

499
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 3: it's an improvement. So I think the offense should be

500
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 3: more functional, just won't be completely dysfunctional. The defense has

501
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 3: some pieces. We'll see if sneed can actually looks like

502
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: it's gonna play. Can he give them number one corner reps?

503
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 3: Can he get back to his old form if he does.

504
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: I like their corner group. They have some good pieces

505
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 3: up front, and their defense wasn't terrible last year, even

506
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: though they got no help from anything. And then their

507
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 3: special teams last year were one of the worst of

508
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 3: all time history of the NFL. I didn't love the

509
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 3: pieces they brought in, but they overhauled the whole unit.

510
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 3: So they just won't be a disaster or they can't

511
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,439
Speaker 3: be worse than last year. So there's a lot of

512
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 3: things that are pointing up. It's not the best spot

513
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 3: in the world. Like if a rookie quarterback making his

514
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,719
Speaker 3: first start, rookie quarterbacks on the road of week one

515
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 3: or eight and twenty one straight up put five hundred

516
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 3: against the spread. Though I don't need them to win

517
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 3: this game. I just need him the cover eight and

518
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: a half with a very low total. And by the way,

519
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 3: dogs low totals early in the season first eight weeks

520
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 3: fifty eight percent under when the totals under forty three.

521
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 3: So you're asking the Broncos to win by two possessions

522
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 3: here in a game with a super low total.

523
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 2: I get it.

524
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 3: They're going to altitude, going to Denver, It's not an

525
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 3: easy place to play against a really hard defense. But

526
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 3: we don't know the Denver defense is gonna be lead.

527
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 2: Again.

528
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 3: I'd mentioned this in our preseason pods. Denver was one

529
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: of the twenty five best EPA defenses over the past

530
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 3: ten years. The past twenty four only one improved on

531
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 3: their EPA numbers. The average drop in rankings and EPA

532
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 3: was eight and a half. Last year, we thought the

533
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 3: Browns and the Jets were gonna be a lead on defense. Look,

534
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 3: how we're talking about the Browns of Jets defense. Now

535
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 3: we're like, well, maybe we think they're gonna be good.

536
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 3: That's in one year because the secondary underperformed and then

537
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 3: you know there's injuries and that the Denver was extremely

538
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 3: healthy last year, so I think this line's too high.

539
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 3: It's my biggest edge numbers wise, on the board. You're

540
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 3: gonna give me eight and a half nine with the Titans,

541
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: even with a rookie quarterback making his first start. I'm

542
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 3: taking it new year. Knew me, same bets.

543
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 2: Titans got'a be more responsible, bro, you gotta be more responsible.

544
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 3: I can't.

545
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: I thought you were gonna go on. I thought you

546
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: were just gonna hammer the Cardinals as a as a

547
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: road favorite. Honestly, actually surprised I would have lost the

548
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 2: bet that you ended up going to Titans. But yeah,

549
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: it's a big number, and the number keeps getting away too.

550
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: You know it was it was in the stevens and

551
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 2: now it's nine. So I get it, but I just can't.

552
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 2: I don't see anything about the Broncos outside of just saying, okay,

553
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 2: there could be potential regression for the regressions sake. But

554
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 2: they improved the roster. You know, they they got guys

555
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,919
Speaker 2: working the preseason. People were you know, they they had

556
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: a hard cut down day because their rockster was very good.

557
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 2: They got a good coach, they got It wasn't.

558
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 3: An elite team last year though, people think this was

559
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: an elite team. They won their tenth game and by

560
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 3: the way they beat they beat one playoff team all year.

561
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: They won their tenth game because the Chiefs rested everyone.

562
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 3: Like Chiefs play everyone that game. They probably finished nine

563
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 3: and eight. They don't even make the playoffs. No one's

564
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 3: talking about Denver. We're talking about them now. They get

565
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 3: drilled in the playoffs. Anyway, Like this wasn't some super

566
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 3: power team, Like it's crazy everyone's picking Broncos to win

567
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: the day. It's insane to me, Like, this is a

568
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 3: team that had everything work out for Their defense was great,

569
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 3: their offensive line was great, they had no injuries, they

570
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 3: had great, great game scripts for Nicks. But anytime they

571
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 3: played a team with a pulse. Yeah, they went one

572
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 3: and six against playoff teams. They're one wins against the

573
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: Tampa team we just trashed. So, like, I don't think

574
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 3: that this this team is in a different planet than

575
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 3: the Titans where they should be expected to win by

576
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 3: ten plus, because I think the Titans are significantly improved.

577
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: So putting my money on my mouth is I'm on

578
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 3: the Broncos win total under, Titans win total over. So

579
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: it's not a surprise and showing value here, give me

580
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 3: the Titans.

581
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: Titans might not have a pulse. I'm curious, Like I'm

582
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 2: just saying there is a chance they don't have it.

583
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 2: I mean the Broncos, Yes, they dying games. If you

584
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 2: take out that that last week, the Week eighteen win,

585
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 2: but the Broncos went over their season win total by

586
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 2: more wins. Even if you take out that win in

587
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 2: Week eighteen, they went over the season win total by

588
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 2: more wins than the Titans got last year. So the

589
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: Titans could just be sweeping. Joe Biden, you know, two

590
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 2: years straight just in the is sleeping, sweeping through everything.

591
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: I'm curious. I hope they're better. I hope for your sake,

592
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 2: but I'm not sold yet. I'm not sold yet. I'm

593
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 2: not so yet. We got to see. But that was

594
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 2: our that was our Week one, Sunday six. I didn't

595
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: disappoint uh rechap Let's see, we got the We got

596
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: some Russell Wilson, some uh Joe Flacco, Michael Pennix, some

597
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 2: cam Ward.

598
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 3: I have Cam Moore, Joe Flacco and Jordan Love.

599
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 2: I got Russ Pennix and Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, that's that

600
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: could be the there's a world in which like the

601
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 2: sixth words quarterbacks in the NFL. But who do we do?

602
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 2: Tonday six Pack? Week one? Now it's time for our

603
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 2: Week one Coaches Pep Talk and the first Coaches Pep

604
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 2: Talk of the season. Surprise once again from coach Pete

605
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 2: Bell and one of our producers, Matt Mitchell's favorite movies

606
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 2: pretty much the only movie he knows, apparently the nineteen

607
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 2: ninety four classic film Blue Chips, and we're gonna dedicate

608
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 2: this stuck Stead, get into Pete Carroll. Man, it's Raider Teams,

609
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly. I don't know, man, I'm kind

610
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,719
Speaker 2: of curious to see how this goes. But going up

611
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: against going up against Rabel in week one, that should

612
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 2: be really interesting. So it's a here's a Pete and

613
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: Chip this week the old heads.

614
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 3: All right, boys, we.

615
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 2: Got a job to do now. Goddamn it. We're not

616
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: going out there to make a good show or just

617
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: put up a good fight. We're going out there to

618
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 2: beat the best goddamn team in the country. Right now,

619
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: let me tell you something, boys. You may not know this,

620
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 2: but I know it. There is the talent in this

621
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 2: room to do just that. He'll tell them exactly what

622
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 2: we're gonna do. I'll give him our offense. I'll give

623
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 2: them our defense, because it's not what you do, God

624
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 2: damn it, it's how you do it. We're gonna go

625
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 2: with him, and you're gonna play better than you ever

626
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: dreamed of the couch. God damn it, that's what I

627
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 2: have in you. That is a coach. Is pep talk

628
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 2: for week one. You know, football is back and Underdog

629
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 2: is the best place to make picks and win money

630
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: all season long. Playing on Underdog is easy. You just

631
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 2: pick whether your favorite player will go higher or lower

632
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 2: on stats like touchdowns, receiving yardage, interceptions, and more. You

633
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 2: can play with as little as one dollar and get

634
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 2: your picks right, and you can win up to five

635
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 2: thousand times your cash. I really like Underdog. They have

636
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 2: a wide variety of picks to make. And what I'm

637
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 2: looking at is this Monday night game. I think you're

638
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: going to see a lot of running the football here.

639
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 2: Two younger quarterbacks that are gonna take some time in

640
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 2: these new offenses for them. So I like Jordan Mason higher.

641
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna see more him than you expect

642
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 2: in that Minnesota Viking offense early in the year, especially

643
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 2: with Aaron Jones, is more of kind of a dual

644
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 2: threat pass catching aption out of the backfield, so that

645
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 2: Jordan Mason higher than thirty eight and a half rushing

646
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 2: yards has caught my eye. On Monday Night Football for

647
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 2: Week one, you can download the Underdog app to date

648
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: and sign up with Promo Code Action Network to score

649
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Speaker 2: fifty dollars in bonus funds when you play your first

650
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Speaker 2: five dollars. That's Promo Code Action Network actionntwor Hey. Millions

651
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Speaker 2: of fans have already won billions making picks on Underdog.

652
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Speaker 2: We'll be next eighteen plus, nineteen plus now Bama, Nembraska,

653
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Speaker 2: nineteen plus in Colorado for some games, twenty one plus

654
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 2: in Arizona, Massachusetts and Virginia. And president of a state

655
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,320
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656
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657
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658
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 2: not vut in Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Concert with

659
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 2: your play called one hundred gamper, or visit www dot

660
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 2: NCP Gambling dot Org in New York called the twenty

661
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 2: four seven Hope line at one eight seven to seven

662
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 2: eight hope and why that's one eight seven seven eight

663
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 2: h op e and y or text Hope and y

664
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: port six seven three six nine favorite total stuck, you're

665
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: up what you got? All right?

666
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: For my favorite Week one total, I'm going with the

667
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 3: Patriots Raiders over forty three and a half. Think just

668
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 3: a bit too low. I Number one, have you seen

669
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 3: the Raiders secondary?

670
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 2: We like PLS secondary.

671
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 3: It is as bad as you can get on paper

672
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:01,240
Speaker 3: from Stay. I mean, like, I won't go into but it's.

673
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 2: One player on defense.

674
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 3: They have one and there's nothing else Graham can really do.

675
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 3: Graham just wants to take away the exposed to play.

676
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 3: I don't think that's gonna hurt too much against McDaniels.

677
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 3: They were on the same staff together. There's a lot

678
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 3: of familiar which is interesting. But uh, I think that

679
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,479
Speaker 3: Drake may should be able to cook. Here. You're gonna

680
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: see a lot of gap scheme runs. Uh, You're gonna

681
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 3: see a lot of play action, some boot action. They

682
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 3: should be able to move the ball. On the other side,

683
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 3: we both like this Raiders offense bringing Gino Smith. That's

684
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: an upgrader quarterback passion genty draft him. You should have

685
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 3: some semblance of a running game. And on the Patriots

686
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 3: they blew up their safeties a week before the season.

687
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 3: Christian Gonzales the one of the best corners in the

688
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 3: NFL likely to be out here still TVD but I

689
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: think he's gonna miss that's big at who's covering Bowers?

690
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: I don't know, and like it's so I think that

691
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 3: the r is going to move the ball. Speaking of totals,

692
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,720
Speaker 3: so I like you over here, I wanted to find

693
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 3: some overs early in the season and because the new rules,

694
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 3: so that the only other total I played so far

695
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 3: thinking about the Jags team total over and the Jacks

696
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 3: Panthers over. I did play the Colts Dolphins under yes,

697
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 3: oh under, Yeah, yeah you like the over. Yeah I

698
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,720
Speaker 3: might not, I might not keep it. But my reason

699
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones. Can he really exploit the Miami's Secondary's awful,

700
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 3: not just I'm not really sure Dan. I don't trust

701
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 3: danders throw downfield. I think both of the lines of

702
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: that game could dominate the opposing offensive lines. The buying

703
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 3: the offense doesn't scare anybody anymore, and they're they're you know,

704
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 3: Hill and a Chane are coming back from injury. Like

705
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 3: that offense is that they don't scare me, but it's indoors.

706
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 3: And then you have these new kickoff rules.

707
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 2: Yeah.

708
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 3: So the other unders I was thinking about are Rams

709
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 3: Texans because you have Stafford in his back is larrk

710
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 3: Johns Jackson the left half we're going to go. And

711
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 3: then the Texans with their offensive line. The Rams defensive line,

712
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 3: by the way, first the NFL history last ye to

713
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 3: have their top four sack guys be first or second

714
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 3: year players. They're defensive front could just blow this all

715
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 3: up for the Texans and it could be rusty early

716
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 3: for the Rams. Two McVeigh guys coordinating the offenses for

717
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 3: what it's worth. So I was looking at the under

718
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 3: there and then forty nine or Seahawks, like where's the

719
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 3: explosiveness coming from. It's gonna be a ton of running

720
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 3: in that game. I might look live under there after

721
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 3: I see some of these games play out, and then

722
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 3: like Shanahan script, the Seahawks I think are gonna have

723
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 3: a good script if you get scores early there like

724
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 3: the you know, the forty nine erst weapons are all hurt,

725
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 3: and there's gonna be a ton of running in that game.

726
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 3: So those are the unders. But the kickoff rule I

727
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: wanted to post to you is so for those not familiar,

728
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 3: that you're gonna have players that the kickoff team, they're

729
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 3: gonna be static on the forty and teams have crafted

730
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 3: the roster differently because of this, like you're keeping an

731
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 3: extra linebacker, tight end and guys who are more valuable

732
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 3: on these kickoff kickoff plays. And then the touch that

733
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 3: there's a touch back, it comes out to the thirty

734
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 3: five instead of the thirty. So my thinking is, okay,

735
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 3: field position is probably going to get better. There's probably

736
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 3: be more explosive plays too, adds more, a little bit

737
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 3: more variance. The field position was already up last year

738
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 3: watched like the twenty nine on average, but in the

739
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 3: preseason it was It wasn't materially different. But I don't

740
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 3: think teams are putting their best guys out there. They

741
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 3: probably weren't putting their best plays as far as returns.

742
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 2: So what did you do?

743
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 3: And then you have a kickoff ball roll? Like kick

744
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 3: kickers can prep their balls. That sounded weird. They can

745
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,840
Speaker 3: the game balls before they're kicking balls, so get longer

746
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:42,399
Speaker 3: field goals. Justin Tucker says that, yeah, and uh yeah,

747
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 3: I mean we saw seventy yarder in preseason. What are

748
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 3: you doing with field position and totals earlier monitoring it

749
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 3: like so I'm trying to be wary of unders early. Yeah.

750
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 2: I do think the NFL is trying to get is

751
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 2: trying to get to twenty three points per game again,

752
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 2: you know it would they'd think actually they got to

753
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: twenty two nine that I think they're trying to get

754
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 2: back to that twenty three five range. That seems what

755
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 2: they're doing. Uh, And I do think I think it

756
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: might get there, but you're still you're talking about I

757
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 2: think at half point, so it's not materially changing the angles.

758
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 2: Come if I'm betting a total, I'm usually variant though. Yeah,

759
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 2: I think we started seeing that last year. Because so

760
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 2: what's happening is uh, like you said, kick field position

761
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 2: improved last year because of similar rule. Now it's going

762
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 2: to be even more supercharged. So no one's no one

763
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 2: wants got touchbacks. You're going to get these kickoffs, but

764
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: you're keeping running backs. You already saw you know Henderson

765
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 2: take advantage and whatnot. So you're getting better players returning

766
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 2: kicks than I think we've had in a while too. Uh.

767
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:50,800
Speaker 2: But also the NFL last year, I believe it was

768
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 2: a record year for field goal attempts.

769
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 3: So it's like it teams are like seventy percent from

770
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 3: beyond fifty.

771
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's you got these situa now where yeah,

772
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 2: teams are kickers, legs are getting stronger and more accurate

773
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 2: from distance, and it's one of those situations where if

774
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 2: there is a touchback for whatever reason, you need like

775
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 2: one or two plays and one way really and you're

776
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 2: in field goal range.

777
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, so fascinating to watch. And it could be

778
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 3: their hidden edge, like we're low on the Cowboys this year. Yeah,

779
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 3: and Cowboys like that they use parsons. Now what's his

780
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 3: what's the trickle down effect? We don't have to pay

781
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 3: attention to that. Parsons are already bad defense and defensive

782
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 3: that has bad linebackers in linebackers. You need linebackers that

783
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 3: ever flews defense. But uh, you're gonna have the combination

784
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 3: of Turpin returning more like a touch back to the

785
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 3: thirty five and then Aubrey, Like there's gonna be drives

786
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,399
Speaker 3: with you don't even need a first down and you're

787
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 3: hear in field goal range. So that could be like

788
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 3: the Cowboys might be one of the biggest benefactors from.

789
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 2: Jaguars bro Like you're gonna have You're gonna have like

790
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 2: some like some like yeah two into or Parker, like

791
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 2: all these guys that they have a bunch of guys

792
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 2: that can return Washington probably I think Washington I wouldn't

793
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: response to Tutans back there at times. I think I

794
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 2: think Allen could do it. Bigsby. Bigsby is another one. Uh,

795
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 2: so they'll they'll have they'll have guys back there and

796
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 2: then uh, it can essentially just wind up from there.

797
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 2: It's just kick so it's it is gonna change things,

798
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 2: But I do think.

799
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 3: Change things. As far as comebacks, Yeah, by.

800
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 2: The way, there's on side now, but you know, over

801
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 2: time both teams touched the ball and new onside.

802
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 3: You could do on side anytime as long as you're losing. Yeah,

803
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 3: but I'm definitely gonna lose it under to that at

804
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 3: some point the two teams get the ball. But yeah,

805
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,399
Speaker 3: Like as far as like comebacks, like if you're kicking

806
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 3: it off late, like it might be easier for the

807
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 3: team to get in the field goal range. So there's

808
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 3: so I'm curious to watch it. But where's your Uh, Well,

809
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:58,320
Speaker 3: we'll we'll keep everyone on the field position, uh, and

810
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 3: some of the total numbers as we get more data,

811
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 3: because I don't think there's a ton you can take

812
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 3: from the preseason, because like, teams just aren't going to

813
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 3: put their best guys in their best returns, and teams

814
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 3: are experimenting. So I would imagine, like I don't know,

815
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 3: I'm protecting like a yard better, Like we're going probably

816
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,720
Speaker 3: gonn be around a thirty now average.

817
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 2: Maybe you're more maybe a little more, yeah, Because the

818
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 2: thing is you are going to get some touchbacks by accident.

819
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 2: You're gonna get some of those, just like kickers screwing

820
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 2: it up, but no one's gonna want to take that

821
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 2: touch back. So you're gonna get returns and it might

822
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: be worth more than a yard. Like I think the

823
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 2: NFL is looking at it from a point perspective. Honestly,

824
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:39,799
Speaker 2: I think they're just trying to get because if there

825
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 2: is a time when the NFL was in that you

826
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 2: know they twenty three, five, twenty four points per game.

827
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 2: It's been like twenty one to twenty two the last

828
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 2: few years. Almost got the twenty three last year, so

829
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 2: I think they're hoping it's worth it's a little more

830
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 2: than just a yard. But with da combine with kickers

831
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 2: and just offenses in general, there's less turnovers too, Like

832
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:01,879
Speaker 2: interceptions rate was down last year. I could continue. So yeah,

833
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 2: a lot of things I think probably pushed scoring up,

834
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 2: uh by like I'm guessing about a half point, But

835
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 2: total wise, I still think it's it's not gonna make

836
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,359
Speaker 2: a big difference for how I'm approaching things because I'm

837
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 2: still looking for more than that half point edge on total.

838
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 2: So this week thought about the Chiefs Chargers. Uh, but

839
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 2: that's I don't got to look a little more into

840
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 2: that notes. I know it's in uh you know Brazil

841
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 2: and field about the field. Yeah that's what that's. Yeah,

842
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 2: that's that's what I gotta work.

843
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 3: About it this week. Last year, no one the defense

844
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 3: couldn't get in. It's like anice exactly.

845
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I still think we're getting a little hike

846
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 2: with like it's like it's the same Patrick mahonmes last year.

847
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 3: Now right, it's there's no rice young kids at the

848
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 3: left side, of the offense lines. We don't know if

849
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 3: that solved. And then the Chargers, I know they still

850
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 3: have weapons, and then you they lost their tackle. You

851
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 3: got to move all over now, and then you have

852
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 3: a bad right tackle.

853
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, that's what I'm thinking about. And it's it's

854
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 2: going up, so I might I might be able to

855
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 2: get it at a discount, even with factoring in you know,

856
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 2: the field, like it might get to forty seven. I

857
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 2: would definitely quite there. Thought about the Oh no, I'm

858
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 2: playing the the Monday Night one, but that's not for

859
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,839
Speaker 2: this pod. So the one I'm going with is good

860
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 2: or reliable. Mike Tomlin Week one under at New York

861
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 2: thirty eight and a half is the number. So three

862
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 2: things here. Number one, you have Aaron Rodgers going against

863
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: one of the most blitz happy coaches in Aaron Glenn. Yeah,

864
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: he's number two in blitz rate. He's gonna bring that

865
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 2: same aggressiveness to the Jets. And Aaron Rodgers was second

866
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 2: worst in yards for attempt against the blitz. He was

867
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 2: second worst in average you have to target versus the blitz,

868
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 2: and he was second worst in time to He's just

869
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: gonna get the ball out. That's why they went out

870
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 2: and got John Smith and these guys. So it's just

871
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 2: gonna be a dink and dunk show in my opinion.

872
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 2: With Rogers, that's what we've that's what we're seeing. It's

873
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 2: not efficient five and a half yards for attempt. He's

874
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 2: progressively gotten worsees, he's gotten older against the Blitz.

875
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 3: And then they're gonna be slow too. They're gonna be slow.

876
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:22,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're gonna be slow. And then you look at

877
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball and the Jets self

878
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 2: stated goal and I'm not kidding, like their coordinator and

879
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,720
Speaker 2: quarterback both come out and say, yeah, we're just happy

880
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 2: to take eight yard passes. Uh that that's kind of

881
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 2: That's what I mean, that's what she got aimed for

882
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:41,440
Speaker 2: when you got Justin Fields at quarterback, and I might

883
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 2: not get that because you can just kind of stack

884
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 2: the box. There's familiarity here because Fields was on the

885
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 2: steel Who last year and Rogers was on the Jets.

886
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 2: So there's just gonna not be much ball movement going on.

887
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be a lot of running back involvement.

888
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: I don't think there's gonna be much that gets over

889
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 2: the top and Fields, you know, for that's one thing

890
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:01,840
Speaker 2: I feel like he used to be better at. You know,

891
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 2: he was one of those quarterbacks. Yeah, he would hold

892
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 2: the ball to one, but he would run it. He

893
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 2: would run it rip downfields. Jets don't really have those

894
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 2: kind of weapons. Maybe a Ryan Smith eventually, but not

895
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 2: in week one. And yeah, and he's not doing it

896
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 2: in camp either, So it's you know, they're really just

897
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 2: leaning into long drives, tie the defense out physical, and

898
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 2: then Aaron Rodgers is on the wrong side of forty

899
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 2: and just has to play hoppotato with the ball. I

900
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:28,399
Speaker 2: remember Peyton Manning when he was on his last legs

901
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 2: and that after that neck when he just had to

902
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 2: get rid of the ball. Tom Brady, it was either

903
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 2: you know, get rid of the ball or go down

904
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:34,880
Speaker 2: and take a sack. That's why Leather League attempts at

905
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 2: like age forty five. So this is what you're getting here.

906
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 2: So it's under forty, not scared of about it, not

907
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 2: scared about the kickoff rules. And then both of these

908
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 2: teams they got they got like three guys that they

909
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 2: could legitimately evolve in the backfield, so you know they're

910
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 2: gonna be run centric the Pittsfick' stel was one of

911
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 2: the better defenses in the league. Jets should be better.

912
00:46:56,200 --> 00:47:00,400
Speaker 2: It's just there's just no real nothing pointing towards scoring

913
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,240
Speaker 2: in this game unless the defenses are doing it. Comlin

914
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 2: rode under fifty eight thirty one and one sixty five

915
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: percent since twenty fourteen, covering by an average of two

916
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 2: point six points per game twenty seven percent. ROI if

917
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: you bet on ninety of them over that span, So

918
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 2: give me Jets, Steelers. This is a game that could

919
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,880
Speaker 2: end legitimately end under thirty Yeah, yeah, yeah.

920
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 3: Ten seconds. Feeling that why you like the Dolphins over

921
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 3: I just.

922
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 2: Think I just think their secondary is terrible. It's indoors. Uh,

923
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 2: the Dolphins are kind of we're kind of faking that hole.

924
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 2: I feel like they're healthier than they were ritning on

925
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 2: and like, yeah, it's bad vibes, but like at the

926
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 2: end of the day, like if if Daniel Jones din

927
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 2: to score in that defense. But I also feel like,

928
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 2: who is not losing to Daniel Jones. It's not with

929
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 2: a healthy h Han Tyreek and waddle. So I just

930
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 2: think they're gonna go back and forth and then this

931
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 2: point points are gonna be scored. I like the Colts office.

932
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 2: This is the best offense Daniel Jones ever had, the

933
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 2: best it might even be the best lineed bad, which

934
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 2: is beautifuls could dominate that they could, but at the end,

935
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 2: like you're still gonna have I think you're gonna have

936
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: splash plays is what I'm saying. So, uh yeah, doesn't.

937
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 3: Splash places play. And then also the Colts defense, I'm

938
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 3: I'm accounting for a huge bump because there's no more

939
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 3: Gus Browley. That's another reason I like the under Like

940
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 3: schematically fair, everyone's figured out the Dolphins offense like it's you,

941
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 3: You're They're still gonna be good, but they're not like

942
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: explosive anymore. Tyreek's not explosive anymore.

943
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 2: Remember they have a culture change. That's why they went

944
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 2: out and got Darren Waller. And this is the coach.

945
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 3: He's probably not gonna play. No, yeah, it's a joke.

946
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,399
Speaker 2: I just think. I just think this is the game

947
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,279
Speaker 2: where I don't I don't see many stops, like this

948
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 2: defense is there. Everything's just average about I think these

949
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 2: defenses except.

950
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 3: Both front sevens are decent. Yeah, but like the Colts

951
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,240
Speaker 3: defensive line is good the Dolphins defensive front is good.

952
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 2: Okay, but you got you got Daniel Jones and Jonathan

953
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 2: Taylor like were gonna break runs. And then for the Dolphins,

954
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:04,879
Speaker 2: h h and is fast. Ali Gordon's looked great. Hill

955
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:08,399
Speaker 2: is healthier than they were letting on. Wattald's still there.

956
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 2: I just think I just think it's gonna be enough.

957
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: But I understand. I think long term, you're correct. I

958
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 2: think I think the coach defense will be better, and

959
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 2: I think the Dolphins have a better defense than a

960
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 2: decent scheme too. But week one offensive coaches, I think,

961
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 2: I think it's his points, money line underdog, and then

962
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 2: we're gonna do anytime touchdown partway. That's and then we'll

963
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 2: get out of here with survivors. So let's start it

964
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 2: with money line.

965
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 1: Dog turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

966
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

967
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 2: We're going stuck.

968
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 3: Let's go Falcons. I had to talk about it, Alo Ravens.

969
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: They barely an underdog. Now it's I think they're like

970
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 2: minus one o nine technically, so let's see what are

971
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 2: the Falcons about?

972
00:49:57,680 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 3: Plus thirty.

973
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 2: It's not not gonna be a juicy one, but I

974
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 2: do like the Ravens against the Bills. Lamar Jackson twelve

975
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 2: and three against the spread, nine to six straight up,

976
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 2: he's won, he's what sixty percent of his games when

977
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 2: he's an underdog. I think the Ravens are their better team.

978
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 2: The only reason the Bills are favored, or maybe were favored,

979
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 2: is because they are at home. But the Bills still

980
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 2: have questions. The linebacker, still have questions at safety, and

981
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 2: I have questioned the quarterback now too. So you're talking

982
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 2: about a quarterback who came off forty one and four

983
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 2: and might maybe still getting better in terms of the

984
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:35,680
Speaker 2: touchdown exception rate. Ravens generally healthy outside of likely which

985
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 2: you know, if this was balls to the wall, you know,

986
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 2: only like you know, kind of linebacker issues for the Bills,

987
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 2: I'd say maybe it's more important. But like now the

988
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: corner situation, like you still got Andrews, I think Zay

989
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 2: Flower is going to be a lot more productive than

990
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 2: he was previously. Against the Bills, Lamar is just excellent.

991
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 2: They've been chopping at the bit to avenge that, you know,

992
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 2: the loss. I think the Ravens come out hot and

993
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:03,800
Speaker 2: it's like a beat down, maybe a beatdown similar to

994
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 2: what we what we saw in the regular season matchup.

995
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 2: So I love them if you can get them as

996
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 2: a dog. So that's that's what we'rolling any thoughts on

997
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:11,800
Speaker 2: them because I know that's your squad.

998
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, harball elite with extra rests and especially

999
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 3: week one, he's the best most profitable coach in the league.

1000
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 3: Twelve and five against the spread Week one, Lamar nineteen

1001
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 3: and three regular season against the spread on road turf.

1002
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 3: I mean this is I make this like around a

1003
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 3: coin flip if I had to pick, I think the

1004
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 3: Ravens do win and they do get their revenge. They're

1005
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:33,800
Speaker 3: the more complete team right now, but it's Josh Allen

1006
00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 3: at home with the Bills. They don't really lose it home.

1007
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:38,880
Speaker 3: They've lost twice twice over the last three years, So

1008
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 3: I make it a coin flip. I think the Ravens

1009
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,879
Speaker 3: are gonna win. It's a huge game for the one seed.

1010
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 3: But I'll probably look out like if the Ravens go

1011
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 3: down early, like on the first drive, because I could

1012
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 3: be betting the Ravens live. That's that's my ankle there.

1013
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:56,520
Speaker 2: The Ravens are better everywhere, like everywhere, Like josh Anas

1014
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 2: losing home, But like, what is what of the Bills

1015
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 2: is better in the Ravens right now? Hey, the defenses

1016
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: and shambles. The Raven's got the better running back. Jackson

1017
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 2: had a better season than Allen regards who won the MVP.

1018
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 2: The Bills are still messing around with all these ride

1019
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 2: receivers that aren't really as good as Theefon Diggs or

1020
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 2: Day Flowers or Mark Andrews. Like, I just I can't

1021
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 2: really find an edge for the Buffalo Bills outside of

1022
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 2: the track record, Like they might win every game after this,

1023
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: but I think the Ravens big edge here.

1024
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 3: I mean, I had the Ravens power to hire, but

1025
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 3: I just think it's around a coin flip.

1026
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 2: Like so scary. Okay, it's they don't lose much.

1027
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 3: But remember said I would have hammered it, but I

1028
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 3: might get around it there. I think the Ravens win.

1029
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 3: I'm pretty good at reading when they win and lose.

1030
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 3: I think they win, but I might get there, but

1031
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:47,319
Speaker 3: I might. Let's speak one, I might throw some darts

1032
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 3: on her and I'll look look for it live.

1033
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, some about plus plus three forty if he probably

1034
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 2: is together, So still not bad. Feel pretty good about

1035
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:59,240
Speaker 2: both of those spots. Let's go to a new segment

1036
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 2: we're going to do and instead of teasers, because teasers

1037
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:03,880
Speaker 2: are kind of going up in value. A lot of

1038
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 2: the value has kind of been taken out. The books

1039
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 2: are raising prices on those. So let's go to our

1040
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 2: good old, reliable anytime touchdowns. We know people love those.

1041
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 2: We love them as well.

1042
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 3: Format Rush Mayfield in the pocket proves, so it's put

1043
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 3: up and pull the touchdown.

1044
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 2: You drop one, I'll drop one. We'll part way them together.

1045
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:26,200
Speaker 2: Who you got?

1046
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 3: I already mentioned fan and yeah, teasers, all the price

1047
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 3: are going up. He's still fine minus one twenties out there.

1048
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,320
Speaker 3: You gotta search. I'll drop like a five second in

1049
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 3: every show on what I do like this week privately

1050
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 3: Jets Bears, Uh, but yeah, have some fun with any

1051
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 3: time touch on So I don't price these. So it's

1052
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 3: more vibes matchups mentally, Yeah, but I'm going with Mark

1053
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 3: Andrews vibes. But good matchup. What happened last year to

1054
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 3: end the season, his fumble was devastating. You know that

1055
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 3: they have something drawn up for him early to get

1056
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 3: him in the end zone to kind of shape those

1057
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 3: demons get the vibes going for this year. So two

1058
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 3: to one on Andrews to score.

1059
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:12,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've do match up and it's it's actually one

1060
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 2: of the because it's the touchdown market, you gotta be

1061
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 2: careful because there's no no bet for most of these,

1062
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 2: so sometimes the prices can be even more inflated than

1063
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:24,239
Speaker 2: your your standard you know, your normal fifteen percent big.

1064
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 2: But in this case, I project a little bit of

1065
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 2: value on Andrews here and Kerner and I were just

1066
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:33,720
Speaker 2: talking about how Andrews I think has the highest touchdown

1067
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 2: projection of any tight end for us this year. So

1068
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 2: like it, and I am going to go with and Andrews.

1069
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:43,399
Speaker 2: By the way, is plus you could get a plus

1070
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:46,759
Speaker 2: two ten out there, but I'm gonna bet that that

1071
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 2: is at dkay. So and what I will say though,

1072
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 2: because we got asked this question a lot touchdown markets,

1073
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 2: and the markets like this where you're going long shot,

1074
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:00,279
Speaker 2: you know, you get into the two to one are

1075
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 2: more I'm personally not price sensitive, not very price sensitive.

1076
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 2: I wouldn't recommend being as price sensitive because uh, it's

1077
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 2: one of those markets where you're not It's not like

1078
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,720
Speaker 2: you're making a whole bunch of bets on no anyway.

1079
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 2: So you just have to take the values where you

1080
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 2: can find it, and I think you're gonna have more success.

1081
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 2: You know if it goes down ten twenty cents, like

1082
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 2: it sucks. But I you know, I wouldn't just like

1083
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:29,440
Speaker 2: fade it if it's if you're talking long shuts, That's

1084
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 2: how I approach it. That's how I've had success. So

1085
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 2: that that's just you know, because some people think, you know, okay,

1086
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 2: if we give out to ten two A five, no,

1087
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 2: no go. I would still there's a wider net for

1088
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:43,440
Speaker 2: me in these because they're already kind of not priced.

1089
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:45,880
Speaker 2: Is they're already there's not as they're already kind of

1090
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 2: priced pretty uh, pretty fairly, I would say, so. Uh,

1091
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 2: but Trevor Lawrence for me, and the reason being is

1092
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 2: I have come upon some you know, some inntel that

1093
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 2: the Jag may be using a touch push or whatever

1094
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 2: their version of a touch pushes this year, and we

1095
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:09,400
Speaker 2: know Trevor Lawrence has the size to do it, and

1096
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 2: they have had, you know, the backs. They have a

1097
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 2: whole bunch of backs on the roster. But you know

1098
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 2: two guys are rookies, Tooting and Allen. So do you

1099
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 2: have confidence to hand it to them in week one

1100
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 2: at the goal line, and then your wead back what

1101
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 2: we think Travis Etn has had bumbling issues on the

1102
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:31,480
Speaker 2: goal line, and then Ten Bisbees is the other guy,

1103
00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 2: but his role is kind of I would, I think,

1104
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:34,799
Speaker 2: the most up in the air. I don't know if

1105
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:36,719
Speaker 2: he got the start in that last or in that

1106
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 2: you know, second preseason game because they were trying to

1107
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 2: showcase him for a trade, or he jumped Etn or

1108
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 2: what's going on. I could see him being a scratch

1109
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 2: even like there's it's just a wire rang outcome. So

1110
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence, if you can just touch, push it in,

1111
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 2: and I think you're gonna get opportunities against his Panthers defense,

1112
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 2: which was again the worst defense by DVOA last year

1113
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 2: of all the defense in the NFL. I think Lawrence

1114
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 2: may get to the end zone, may even do it

1115
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,800
Speaker 2: twice in a game like this. So give me Trevor

1116
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 2: Lawrence at plus for fifty four and anytime that would

1117
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 2: be a rushing school. I like it. All right, Let's

1118
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 2: see what the parlay odds Andrews plus two ten, Lawrence

1119
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 2: plus for fifty sixteen to one Bring plus sixteen oh

1120
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 2: five to be exact. So that's the nice juicy one again.

1121
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 2: Mark Andrews anytime touchdown plus to ten, Trevor Lawrence plus

1122
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 2: for fifty. All right, let's get out of here with

1123
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 2: a Survivor pick.

1124
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:37,320
Speaker 3: Where'd you go?

1125
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 2: Week one? One?

1126
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 1: Pick one chance to advance Survivor.

1127
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:49,960
Speaker 3: Well, I'm doing it for the perspective of a larger pool,

1128
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 3: so it gotta be a little bit more risky, and

1129
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Cardinals. How many times more times

1130
00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 3: we're gonna use them? Probably not many, like the Broncos,

1131
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 3: probably more chances. They're one of the bigger favorites. The Eagles.

1132
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna use them later in the year. So

1133
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take a risk with the Cardinals. It's Spencer Rattler,

1134
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 3: and I like this Cardinals team. I like their defense,

1135
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 3: I like their staff. I think they're gonna be ready.

1136
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 3: Talked about the home field dwindling for the Saints, I'm

1137
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 3: not as scared, So give me give me Arizona.

1138
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: Interesting take on this. I think Arizona has some like

1139
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,080
Speaker 2: they I think they could start hot. I actually think

1140
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:28,920
Speaker 2: I might be interested in choosing them next week against

1141
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 2: the Carolina Panthers. At home and just a road game

1142
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 2: kind of scares me, you know, offensive coach, So I

1143
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 2: mean maybe radver is dis version of him is better.

1144
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:42,560
Speaker 2: They actually scare me a little bit, just just because

1145
00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:44,440
Speaker 2: of all those kind of unknowns and being on the

1146
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 2: road scary.

1147
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 3: Scare me.

1148
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:52,080
Speaker 2: And now I'm not even going Roncos. I'm not going Broncos.

1149
00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 2: Even that, I will admit, you know, Titans again scares me.

1150
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 2: You know who doesn't scare me? The Cowboys. Give me

1151
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 2: the Eagles. I we're down on them this year. No

1152
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:04,440
Speaker 2: one ever went to the NFC suis in a row.

1153
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 2: Eagles great roster, but they we're already seeing you know,

1154
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:12,200
Speaker 2: there was an exodus. Uh, but there's hell. They're probably

1155
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 2: as healthy as they're gonna be, you know, offensively. And

1156
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 2: the Cowboys like Brian Schotenhower came out and said he

1157
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 2: he didn't even know that they were like really gonna

1158
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 2: end up traded Michael Parsons, you know they're they're they're

1159
00:59:26,080 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 2: scrambling here. I know they got you know, something in return,

1160
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:32,880
Speaker 2: but uh, I like this matchup for the Eagles, and

1161
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:35,760
Speaker 2: I don't like their season one prospects, so I don't

1162
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:37,480
Speaker 2: want to wait, you know, for like, oh, you know,

1163
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 2: I'll use them against the Giants late in the year,

1164
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 2: and then it's like the Giants are just humming with

1165
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 2: Jackson dart In and elite defense and the Eagles are

1166
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 2: injured and you know this like Fringe, you know, going

1167
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 2: back to like that that the year when they got

1168
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:51,680
Speaker 2: they started hot and fell off a cliff. So I

1169
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 2: actually like using the Eagles early this year. So that's

1170
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 2: that's my angle on Survivor. I think the Eagles are

1171
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 2: actually a sharp point here because I don't want to

1172
01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 2: say this year, so eagleism Carter's Eagle Survivor. That's it.

1173
01:00:05,880 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 2: Week one Action Network Podcast. Thanks for listening. You can

1174
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 2: find Stuck or an ex at Stucky to him at

1175
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 2: Chris Raybon. We're at those same handles on the free

1176
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 2: award winning Action Network AAP. You can check out Stuck

1177
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 2: talking college football. Well we're on Big Bets on Campus Pig,

1178
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:24,520
Speaker 2: Great Pie. Be sure to check that out. Curdi or

1179
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 2: and I talking Fantasy DFS player projects, all that good stuff.

1180
01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 2: We're on the Fantasy Flex podcast. You're interested in that,

1181
01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:35,080
Speaker 2: brother a wise Until next week, good luck get this money,

1182
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 2: let go.

1183
01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1184
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1185
01:00:53,400 --> 01:00:56,480
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