1
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:18,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

2
00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:23,280
Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

3
00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:25,680
Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe Wisenthal.

4
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:27,880
Speaker 2: Joe. We are here at Jackson Hole. We made it.

5
00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:28,720
Speaker 3: I love it here.

6
00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:34,080
Speaker 2: So this is the annual Economic Symposium held by the

7
00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,640
Speaker 2: Kansas City FED, and it's sort of a gathering of

8
00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:42,199
Speaker 2: central bankers and policy makers. And the idea is that

9
00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,120
Speaker 2: a it's a chance for them to talk about the

10
00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,640
Speaker 2: sort of pressing issues facing the global economy and maybe

11
00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,760
Speaker 2: their individual economies. It's a chance to go over academic

12
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,400
Speaker 2: literature and talk about ideas. It's also a chance potentially

13
00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,440
Speaker 2: to guide monetary policy, at least for the FED.

14
00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,520
Speaker 3: Right, so this is what people generally know. The FED

15
00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,200
Speaker 3: chair gives a speech, but there's also a bunch of

16
00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,480
Speaker 3: you know, like in theory and I suppose to practice,

17
00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,240
Speaker 3: but in theory it helps policymakers central bankers around the

18
00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:16,440
Speaker 3: world make better decisions in real time if they're up

19
00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,760
Speaker 3: on the theories, or if they're up on what's happening

20
00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,000
Speaker 3: in academic work and what research is being done in economics.

21
00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,400
Speaker 3: And so, for example, the theme of this year is

22
00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,679
Speaker 3: monetary policy transmission, which is another way of saying, how

23
00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,240
Speaker 3: does monetary policy actually affect the real economy? Kind of

24
00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,280
Speaker 3: a big topic, yeah, but there are a lot of

25
00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,119
Speaker 3: questions about that. And you know how the FED is, say,

26
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,040
Speaker 3: going to proceed with the rate cut cycle. Well, you

27
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker 3: would want to know what rate cuts actually do before

28
00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,960
Speaker 3: you know that might guide you. So it makes sense

29
00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,640
Speaker 3: to sort of convene everyone here talk about the latest

30
00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,840
Speaker 3: research and what monetary policy actually does, and then maybe

31
00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,840
Speaker 3: that can make for better short term decisions.

32
00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,480
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and it sort of begs the question, I guess,

33
00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,440
Speaker 2: what is it like to be a policy maker at

34
00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:00,880
Speaker 2: Jackson Hole? So you and I are coming at it

35
00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,840
Speaker 2: from an outsider's perspective, obviously, And I should just say

36
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,120
Speaker 2: for people who don't know, there's only a handful of

37
00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,800
Speaker 2: journalists basically who, yeah, who are allowed in the room

38
00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,640
Speaker 2: where all these discussions happen and where Powell's speech is

39
00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:19,320
Speaker 2: actually given. Everyone else is sort of milling around outside,

40
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 2: learning by osmosis what's being discussed in the room. And

41
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:28,320
Speaker 2: so I'm really curious what Jackson Hole is like for

42
00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,320
Speaker 2: an actual central banker Totally.

43
00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,480
Speaker 3: I have to say, like when I go to conferences,

44
00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:35,720
Speaker 3: you know, I'm like everyone else. I just want to

45
00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:37,680
Speaker 3: hang out in the lobby and chit chat with people

46
00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:39,960
Speaker 3: I don't actually like wanting to hear panels and stuff.

47
00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,760
Speaker 3: So I sort of like that from me and you perspective.

48
00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,239
Speaker 3: We don't have to feel guilty about not going into

49
00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 3: the panels and like you're saying, because we aren't even

50
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 3: given the option in the first place, So we can

51
00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,120
Speaker 3: just hang out in the lobby and the lodge and

52
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:53,720
Speaker 3: now feel like we're shirking our job.

53
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:58,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, we physically can't try to gather information like normal

54
00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,359
Speaker 2: journalists because this is service will stop us from entering

55
00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:02,119
Speaker 2: the special room.

56
00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:02,639
Speaker 3: That's right.

57
00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,320
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, I'm very happy to say that we do,

58
00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,960
Speaker 2: in fact have the perfect guest, someone who's been on

59
00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,840
Speaker 2: the podcast before. We are going to be speaking with

60
00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,800
Speaker 2: the president of the Richmond Fed, mister Tom Barkin, and

61
00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:16,960
Speaker 2: he is going to tell us what it is like

62
00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:21,160
Speaker 2: to actually be here at Jackson Hole as a FED member.

63
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 3: And it's great because for people who remember the last

64
00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,080
Speaker 3: time we talked to Tom Barkin, we went on a

65
00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,560
Speaker 3: trip with him to North Carolina, and so it's essentially

66
00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,320
Speaker 3: the two sides of being a regional FED president the job, right,

67
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,840
Speaker 3: So one part of the job is to understand what's

68
00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,520
Speaker 3: going on in your district, and Tom does that in

69
00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,800
Speaker 3: various ways. But then the other part is essentially we're

70
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,520
Speaker 3: not in DC, but the quote DC part of the

71
00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,120
Speaker 3: job where then you like take the information that you

72
00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 3: learn and talk to other people and you know, stay

73
00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,720
Speaker 3: up todate on the latest literature and all this, and

74
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:56,840
Speaker 3: so we're going to learn what it is that they

75
00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:57,440
Speaker 3: really do here.

76
00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:00,000
Speaker 2: Okay, let's do it. Tom, welcome back to the show.

77
00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:01,560
Speaker 4: It's great to see you guys again.

78
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,600
Speaker 2: It's nice to see you in as lovely a setting

79
00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,119
Speaker 2: as Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

80
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:08,040
Speaker 3: Although mon Airy was great too.

81
00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,320
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yes, absolutely, I'm thrilled just to be out

82
00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,800
Speaker 2: of New York City in general. But okay, let's talk

83
00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,120
Speaker 2: about Jackson Hole. How many of these have you actually

84
00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:17,960
Speaker 2: been to at this point?

85
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 4: That's my seventh.

86
00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,640
Speaker 2: Oh wow, yes, And in that time period, have they

87
00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,920
Speaker 2: always followed a similar format?

88
00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,760
Speaker 4: Yes, the format has always been the same. Other than

89
00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,640
Speaker 4: I say, I've been to seven during COVID. I know

90
00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,240
Speaker 4: we canceled one in twenty twenty, so, but even that

91
00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,320
Speaker 4: one kept the same format. It's an academic conference and

92
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 4: so the chairl give a speech, they give a couple

93
00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:41,440
Speaker 4: of papers, then you have dinner, then they wake up

94
00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,320
Speaker 4: the next morning, they give a couple of papers. Another

95
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:45,120
Speaker 4: central banker give a speech, and then you move on.

96
00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,640
Speaker 3: I know that like someone gives a paper that they've

97
00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,480
Speaker 3: worked on, and that there are some official discustants who

98
00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,000
Speaker 3: may have some respondents, and then people ask questions what

99
00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:55,919
Speaker 3: do you do? Do you do you pipe in with

100
00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:57,080
Speaker 3: any questions?

101
00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:58,160
Speaker 4: Are you so?

102
00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:00,760
Speaker 3: Do you challenge them and them on the spot.

103
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:02,599
Speaker 4: There's a lot of people out here who try to

104
00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,880
Speaker 4: do that. I've got a different agenda. They quite intentionally

105
00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,560
Speaker 4: do these around monetary policy topics. So today they one

106
00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,080
Speaker 4: of the papers was about the relation between inflation and

107
00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,640
Speaker 4: unemployment and whether that's changed. And I'm looking for good

108
00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,920
Speaker 4: ideas for policy. Yeah, so I'm looking for people to

109
00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:19,440
Speaker 4: put something on the table that I can say, hey,

110
00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,560
Speaker 4: now that's an interesting idea that supports something that I've

111
00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,400
Speaker 4: been thinking, or that's a different way of looking at something.

112
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,200
Speaker 4: So I'm a customer of this, and there's a lot

113
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:29,760
Speaker 4: of people who it's just like college. There's a lot

114
00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,479
Speaker 4: of people who sit in the front row that's probably

115
00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:31,800
Speaker 4: not me.

116
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 2: The other thing I wanted to ask is the materials

117
00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:38,000
Speaker 2: for the actual conference, so we don't see them until

118
00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,520
Speaker 2: they're sort of like drip fed to the public. Do

119
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,560
Speaker 2: you get them in advance and you can read them

120
00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,600
Speaker 2: and think about them before you actually arrived.

121
00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,000
Speaker 4: Absolutely, I got them about two weeks ago, you know,

122
00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:51,960
Speaker 4: probably four sixty page papers, appendices, charts, regressions, all that stuff.

123
00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,400
Speaker 4: I read through them, and my team also reads through them,

124
00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,200
Speaker 4: and we actually do a whole briefing session the week

125
00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:00,520
Speaker 4: before where my economists will say, I really liked this paper.

126
00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 4: Here's something that you know, somebody needs to ask this

127
00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,640
Speaker 4: question because I think about it differently, and so I'm

128
00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,039
Speaker 4: sort of zoned into the papers before they come. Academic

129
00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,320
Speaker 4: conferences have this other tradition, though the discussant, and so

130
00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,600
Speaker 4: someone will give a paper and then somebody else has

131
00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,240
Speaker 4: done research in the exact same field will give their

132
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,760
Speaker 4: view on the exact same topic. It's almost never the same,

133
00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:21,560
Speaker 4: so you do get a little bit of this back

134
00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,080
Speaker 4: and forth debate, which is very helpful if you're trying

135
00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,640
Speaker 4: to think, as I do, about how to make a

136
00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:27,680
Speaker 4: make sense of policy.

137
00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,200
Speaker 3: This is a question that many of our listeners have

138
00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,120
Speaker 3: so I'm relaying it to you. You know, there's the

139
00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:38,120
Speaker 3: bar here, there's a restaurant, there's hiking. What do you

140
00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,720
Speaker 3: do when you're not in the room and when you're, say,

141
00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,960
Speaker 3: on a hike with some other central banker or maybe

142
00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,280
Speaker 3: someone you know, maybe from a different country or for

143
00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:51,679
Speaker 3: are you talking about economics or are you talking about Wow,

144
00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,000
Speaker 3: did you see that bald eagle out there? Did you

145
00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,680
Speaker 3: catch that? You know, see the moon last night? Like?

146
00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:58,039
Speaker 3: What do you guys talking about?

147
00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,920
Speaker 4: So, as I said, the agenda's pretty There'll be three

148
00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,520
Speaker 4: dinners and then in the afternoons there's a hike. And

149
00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,920
Speaker 4: so after the dinner, sometimes you go to the bar

150
00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,600
Speaker 4: and sometimes you don't. There's lots of opportunities to make

151
00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,000
Speaker 4: new relationships and connections. There are central bankers from around

152
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:14,960
Speaker 4: the world here. And when I'm talking to a central

153
00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,840
Speaker 4: banker from Argentina, I'm talking about the Argentinian economy because

154
00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:20,720
Speaker 4: I'm interested in it. And you know, we don't have

155
00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,640
Speaker 4: the same kind of backgrounds and our kids don't go

156
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,400
Speaker 4: to school together. So that's kind of business. Now, when

157
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,560
Speaker 4: I talk to people that I already know, then we

158
00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,800
Speaker 4: could talk about, you know, most anything, tell stories about whatever.

159
00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,000
Speaker 4: But I think these other central bank I mean, it

160
00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,320
Speaker 4: is very interesting to understand how the US is seen

161
00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,840
Speaker 4: from other windows and how those economies are. I talked

162
00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,880
Speaker 4: to someone from Germany yesterday. This is going to make

163
00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,360
Speaker 4: me interested, but not yours. Our savings rate went up

164
00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,320
Speaker 4: at the beginning of COVID to about fifteen or sixteen percent.

165
00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,840
Speaker 4: The same thing happened in Germany. Our savings rate has

166
00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:51,840
Speaker 4: come down to about three and a half. Theirs is

167
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:56,440
Speaker 4: still at seventeen. Really, so why are German consumers not

168
00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,559
Speaker 4: spending the way American consumers are. That's an interesting topic

169
00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 4: thing we spent some time on. It's the kind of

170
00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:05,840
Speaker 4: example of the kind of thing. Well, so, the thing

171
00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,840
Speaker 4: that really makes it crazy interesting is there's a whole

172
00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,760
Speaker 4: social safety debt in Europe that doesn't exist here. And

173
00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,920
Speaker 4: so most of the time you think people are saving

174
00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,120
Speaker 4: for retirement, they're saving for a rainy day, or they're

175
00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,880
Speaker 4: saving because they're worried about losing their job. Well, in

176
00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,160
Speaker 4: Germany they kept everyone's job during the pandemic, and you've

177
00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,560
Speaker 4: got a pension, So why are they saving? And I

178
00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:26,920
Speaker 4: think the best explanation I've gotten it's actually something on

179
00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,040
Speaker 4: my list to study going forward. Is there's just a

180
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:34,640
Speaker 4: lot more precautionary feeling about the situation in Europe, the

181
00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,440
Speaker 4: risks versus the Ukraine and what's happening over there, And

182
00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,000
Speaker 4: it's just a culture that maybe it's just gotten a

183
00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:43,040
Speaker 4: lot more cautious due to geopolitics, if nothing else.

184
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,559
Speaker 3: That does sound really interesting by and large. I mean,

185
00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:50,800
Speaker 3: obviously the situation in the Argentina economy is radically different

186
00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 3: than it is here in the US. Germany is probably still,

187
00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,080
Speaker 3: you know, all things considered similar cyclically to the US.

188
00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,920
Speaker 3: Does it feel like buy and large charge, at least

189
00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:05,160
Speaker 3: among developed countries central bankers that there is a strong

190
00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:09,400
Speaker 3: set of common mysteries perhaps, or are they really like

191
00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,800
Speaker 3: everyone's sort of seeing different things in their own country.

192
00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sure it's makes of both, But how

193
00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:16,280
Speaker 3: much of a global factor? Is there?

194
00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,800
Speaker 4: Much more in common than different? The whole practice of

195
00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,520
Speaker 4: central banking has been i'd say globalized over the years,

196
00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,800
Speaker 4: and central bankers really do think about inflation targeting, for example,

197
00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,319
Speaker 4: the same ways in their banks like New Zealand and

198
00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,679
Speaker 4: Australia that back in two thousand or even before that

199
00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,160
Speaker 4: set inflation targets before the rest of us, and we

200
00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,840
Speaker 4: learned from them, and so there's a lot of learning,

201
00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:39,880
Speaker 4: there's a lot of discussion. I think there's very much

202
00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,840
Speaker 4: a common framework. Now. The economies are very different. I mean,

203
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,680
Speaker 4: the US economy has come through this unbelievably well. The

204
00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,920
Speaker 4: European economies have not, and so we have a much

205
00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,600
Speaker 4: stronger economy. So much of our economy as services, so

206
00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:55,599
Speaker 4: much as supplied to ourselves. A lot of this deglobalization

207
00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,960
Speaker 4: has felt much more on the European side. The challenges

208
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:00,640
Speaker 4: in China right now are felt much more on the

209
00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:04,440
Speaker 4: European side. And then emerging market countries, they really just

210
00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:06,480
Speaker 4: are worried we're going to increase rates further and they're

211
00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,160
Speaker 4: going to end up offside, and so they're very dependent

212
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,080
Speaker 4: on our strength of our dollar the weakness.

213
00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:29,880
Speaker 2: Now, when we were with you in North Carolina, I

214
00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,360
Speaker 2: remember we talked about the process of putting together the

215
00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:37,600
Speaker 2: statements for the FMC meetings. And we're here at Jackson

216
00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:41,400
Speaker 2: Hole every year the FED chair gives a speech. What's

217
00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:45,000
Speaker 2: the process like for putting together that particular speech?

218
00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,199
Speaker 4: Well, it's his speech, so I'll let him talk backly

219
00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,600
Speaker 4: how he does the process. But I've talked to him before,

220
00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:52,959
Speaker 4: and I know he thinks about it for months. I mean,

221
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,439
Speaker 4: this is a big speech on a global stage. It's

222
00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,800
Speaker 4: gotten a certain amount of cachet to it, and he

223
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,640
Speaker 4: thinks hard about, you know, what he wants to say

224
00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:02,240
Speaker 4: and how he wants to say it, and he writes

225
00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,760
Speaker 4: the speech, and you know he'll consult with who he

226
00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:07,080
Speaker 4: wants to when he does that, but it's his speech

227
00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:09,000
Speaker 4: and it's his conversation.

228
00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,240
Speaker 3: Were you surprised? So you know, the markets were a

229
00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 3: bit surprised by the forcefulness with which Powell really just

230
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:20,920
Speaker 3: focused on cutting off left tail outcomes for the labor market.

231
00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 3: And it's clear that the big shift has happened, and

232
00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,920
Speaker 3: he very explicitly said, we do not have any aspirations

233
00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,199
Speaker 3: to see a softer labor market, and in some sense

234
00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,160
Speaker 3: it's softer than it is in twenty nineteen. Were you surprised,

235
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,040
Speaker 3: I don't know when you first read this speech, probably

236
00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:36,680
Speaker 3: before us. Were you surprised?

237
00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,120
Speaker 4: He gets to write his own speech, so he once

238
00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:41,480
Speaker 4: see that.

239
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:42,679
Speaker 3: Clearly, I think we're taken by surprise.

240
00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,680
Speaker 4: Otherwise, we want to see the economy. Since we were

241
00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,800
Speaker 4: together three or four months ago, the economy has moved

242
00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,160
Speaker 4: in a in a very different way. First of all,

243
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,960
Speaker 4: on the inflation side, I might have even said four

244
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:53,840
Speaker 4: or five months ago, I was looking for inflation to

245
00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,200
Speaker 4: sustain and broaden. So it's sustained. We've got very low

246
00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,319
Speaker 4: readings for four months in a row, and it's now

247
00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,400
Speaker 4: across the backs, whereas six months ago, eight months ago,

248
00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,200
Speaker 4: it was really just in goods, and so the concern

249
00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:10,120
Speaker 4: about inflation reaccelerating has definitely come down significantly. At the

250
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:13,560
Speaker 4: same time, the labor market stats have also softened, and

251
00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,160
Speaker 4: so you know, the phrase I've been using is people

252
00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,120
Speaker 4: aren't hiring, but they're not firing, and that's just not

253
00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,960
Speaker 4: a high likely sustainable outcome. Either demand will continue and

254
00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 4: people start hiring again, or you'll start to see layoffs.

255
00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:28,120
Speaker 4: And so I think there's more concern on the labor

256
00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,040
Speaker 4: market and less concern on inflation relatively, and we've got

257
00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,280
Speaker 4: to dual mandate. So I think if you look at

258
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,839
Speaker 4: the minutes that came out a week ago, they'll give

259
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,680
Speaker 4: you a pretty good sense of where the committee was.

260
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,280
Speaker 4: And I think, as always, Jay speaks thoughtfully and responsibly

261
00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:42,160
Speaker 4: for the committee.

262
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,160
Speaker 2: So one of the reasons we like talking to you

263
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,120
Speaker 2: is because you go out and you speak to companies

264
00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,520
Speaker 2: about what they're actually doing in an attempt to figure

265
00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,800
Speaker 2: out what that means for the economy. What are you

266
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:58,320
Speaker 2: hearing from companies right now versus say April when we

267
00:12:58,400 --> 00:12:59,800
Speaker 2: last spoke to you, was it April?

268
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:00,400
Speaker 3: I think so.

269
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,680
Speaker 4: Consumers, you hear a lot of talk about people saying

270
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,080
Speaker 4: that consumer's weak and people are running out of savings.

271
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:08,480
Speaker 4: That's not what I'm hearing. What I'm hearing is consumers

272
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,920
Speaker 4: are still spending, but they're choosing. And the way I

273
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,920
Speaker 4: think about it is they now have the time to

274
00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:16,760
Speaker 4: when they go into a store and they see something

275
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,480
Speaker 4: that's at a price, they don't like to say, I

276
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,560
Speaker 4: think I'm going to do something else. And so if

277
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,320
Speaker 4: you look at Walmart's you know results, they would talk

278
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,160
Speaker 4: about people trading down. If you look at targets results,

279
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:29,719
Speaker 4: they talked about the kind of reaction they're getting to

280
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:33,160
Speaker 4: lower prices. McDonald's results in the five dollars value meal.

281
00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:36,480
Speaker 4: I've talked to hotel chains that every room is booked,

282
00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:38,680
Speaker 4: but they can't raise price at all because the second

283
00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 4: they raise price, people just won't buy it and won't

284
00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:42,760
Speaker 4: book it. I talk to a fast food leader who's

285
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:47,080
Speaker 4: rolling out software actually to encourage their franchises not to

286
00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:48,880
Speaker 4: raise prices anymore.

287
00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:50,800
Speaker 2: That's a counter trend.

288
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I really think what's going on is prices

289
00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,400
Speaker 4: are up, people are aware of it, and people are reacting.

290
00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,560
Speaker 4: Two years ago, you know, you were just out spending

291
00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,600
Speaker 4: and you just wanted it, or you needed those Tailor

292
00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:04,400
Speaker 4: Swift tickets. You always like it when I bring Taylor

293
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,440
Speaker 4: Swift back in. But I think today people are making

294
00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,880
Speaker 4: choices and they're spending money where there's promotions where there's discounts,

295
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:14,360
Speaker 4: or they're you know, moving from beef to chicken, or

296
00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:15,960
Speaker 4: they're moving from Kroger to Walmart.

297
00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:20,880
Speaker 3: Do you still hear from companies that have vacancies unfilled?

298
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:21,600
Speaker 3: What's going on with that?

299
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:26,440
Speaker 4: You do? You do hear vacancies, It's narrower, so it's

300
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:32,880
Speaker 4: really places with skilled trades, nurses, mechanics, auto mechanics. Those

301
00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:34,920
Speaker 4: are the kinds of places where people are still hiring

302
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,520
Speaker 4: in small towns. And we were together in a small town,

303
00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,840
Speaker 4: but you just don't have the same supply of labor

304
00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,880
Speaker 4: in small towns. That's where they're vacancies. And when I'm

305
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,240
Speaker 4: talking to the bigger companies. What they're telling me is,

306
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 4: you know, I'm just kind of slowing down the hiring.

307
00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,680
Speaker 4: You know, I'm gonna let attriction work my workforce down.

308
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,200
Speaker 4: I don't want to fire people because I don't want

309
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 4: to end up short again, but I'm just gonna slow

310
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:55,840
Speaker 4: it down. And then I've been pressing them and I've

311
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,040
Speaker 4: been saying, but do you have plans for layoffs? Because

312
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 4: you know, if you're going to do a layoff, it

313
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,280
Speaker 4: takes you three months to get it done, and no

314
00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:05,880
Speaker 4: one that's doing that right, I mean one person here there.

315
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 4: And so that's why I say we're in a low hiring,

316
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,920
Speaker 4: low firing mode. It just that doesn't feel like something

317
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 4: that's going to persist. And so it's going to move

318
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 4: left or it's going to move right. We'll just have

319
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 4: to see.

320
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 2: What's the urgency then on supporting the labor market, and

321
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 2: there's obviously a debate going on right now about how

322
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:27,880
Speaker 2: fast deterioration in that market actually happens. We had Claudia

323
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 2: Palm on the podcast recently and she was talking about

324
00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 2: maybe it's different this time, but how are you thinking

325
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 2: about the pace or the rate of change in the

326
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:37,080
Speaker 2: labor market.

327
00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 4: So the other thing that's happening in the labor market

328
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 4: is a lot more supply of labor, and part of

329
00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:46,320
Speaker 4: that is participation, prime age participations hitting twenty twenty five

330
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,440
Speaker 4: year highs, and immigration which is up significantly. And so

331
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,640
Speaker 4: the last jobs report, where unemployment went up from four

332
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 4: point one to four point three, you actually added jobs

333
00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,280
Speaker 4: one hundred and fourteen thousand jobs. We just added four

334
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,960
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty five people to the workforce. So the

335
00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 4: denominator got bigger. And so you know, there's some people

336
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,480
Speaker 4: who look at the unemployment rate and say, oh my gosh,

337
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 4: the labor market's about to fall off a cliff. That's

338
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,120
Speaker 4: not how I see it, you know, I see a

339
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 4: loosening labor market being driven by a lot more supply. Now,

340
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,920
Speaker 4: what's the urgency. It's not. We're not in a situation

341
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 4: I don't believe where there is this big cliff there.

342
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 4: But when we make policy, you're trying to make it

343
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 4: for a year from now, right, because the lags of

344
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 4: monetary policy, you're trying to meet a year a year

345
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 4: from now. And so you've got a labor market which

346
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 4: is slowly cooled, and you've got inflation which is now

347
00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 4: gradually cooled, and so you sort of say, well, which

348
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 4: do I worry most more about? And it's been very

349
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:41,400
Speaker 4: clear for the last two and a half years that

350
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 4: all you'd worry about is inflation, and now those are

351
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,440
Speaker 4: much more balanced. And then you ask the question, Okay,

352
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 4: we've got rates and restrictive territory. Real rates if you

353
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 4: look at the financial markets are a little bit over

354
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 4: two percent. Maybe you can take a little bit of

355
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 4: the edge off that. That's I think dialing down the

356
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 4: level of restraint is the way I think the chair

357
00:16:58,120 --> 00:16:59,640
Speaker 4: says it. But you can take a little bit of

358
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 4: the edge off that in a world where your risks

359
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:03,480
Speaker 4: are more balance. That's how I think about it.

360
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 3: I'm going to try to keep pushing you on this.

361
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,159
Speaker 4: And well, this will be fun. Yeah, you'll ask me

362
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:09,240
Speaker 4: the same question five times.

363
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll see if I get to get a slightly

364
00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,480
Speaker 3: different answer each time. You know, there'd be one school

365
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:18,160
Speaker 3: of thought that would say, if you're concerned about potential

366
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,199
Speaker 3: weakening of the labor market, that the current low firing

367
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,800
Speaker 3: hiring is unsustainable and the risks have shifted to the

368
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 3: labor side, that you want to start the rate cut

369
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,400
Speaker 3: cycle and make a statement, and maybe that would mean

370
00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:36,160
Speaker 3: fifty basis points versus say, easing into it with maybe

371
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,680
Speaker 3: a few twenty fives strong out How would you think

372
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 3: about the different possible paths that the FED can now

373
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 3: take to reducing the risks of a bad outcome in

374
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 3: the labor market.

375
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,679
Speaker 4: To me, the question is all conviction. You know, what

376
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 4: do you convinced of? Yeah, And the stronger your conviction,

377
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 4: then the more forcibly you move, whether that's raising rates

378
00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:59,840
Speaker 4: or lowering rates. And then the more that you're in

379
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,920
Speaker 4: a test and learn world, I think the more you say,

380
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 4: let's move gradually or deliberately or methodically, whichever your favorite

381
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 4: word is. So to me, it's about conviction. How convinced

382
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 4: are you and the scenario you just painted, you were

383
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 4: extremely convinced, even convincing, if you want to put it

384
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 4: that way, in terms of what you were trying to do.

385
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,119
Speaker 4: I think we'll learn more as the year goes on

386
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 4: in terms of the data in the same way that

387
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 4: we did when we started raising rates with inflation. We

388
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,639
Speaker 4: started small, and then you know, we got convinced that

389
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 4: inflation was not going away and you had to move faster.

390
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:30,880
Speaker 4: So the more convinced you are the faster and more?

391
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 3: And how what scenario are you convinced of right now?

392
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:36,960
Speaker 4: Well, I've described you know where we are right now,

393
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 4: which is we've got risks on the inflation side still,

394
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 4: and we've got risks on the unemployment side still, and

395
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 4: we've got either one of them could go in both ways.

396
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 4: So I'm in. I'm very much a test and learn

397
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 4: kind of guy in general, and you know, we'll obviously

398
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 4: learn a lot even before the next meeting, so we'll

399
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 4: see what we learn.

400
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 2: You mentioned data just then, and this is obviously been

401
00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 2: a big theme for the FED, which is the idea

402
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 2: of data dependency, not data point dependency, to refer to

403
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 2: how Powell has described it. But I guess my question

404
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 2: is how much confidence do you have in the data

405
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:15,159
Speaker 2: right now? Given that we've been talking about and debating

406
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 2: things like sentiment surveys for a couple years now. So

407
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 2: I guess in this time in twenty twenty three, there

408
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,360
Speaker 2: was all to talk about the Vibe session, and if

409
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:30,119
Speaker 2: you looked at the consumer surveys, people were basically describing

410
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 2: the way they felt as if we were already in

411
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,919
Speaker 2: a recession. And then setting aside the surveys even the

412
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 2: hard data seems to have a question mark over it

413
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,200
Speaker 2: at the moment. We just saw that massive revision from

414
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 2: the BLS. So how much confidence do you have in

415
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 2: the data and how are you sort of thinking of

416
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 2: interpreting it at the moment.

417
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,720
Speaker 4: So we do an SEP every quarter, and one of

418
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 4: the questions is that level of uncertainty, And to me,

419
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 4: that always fits into how confident are you feeling about

420
00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 4: what's happening in inflation's unemployment. I actually think the data

421
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 4: has come in in a very consistent way on both

422
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 4: sides of the mandate over the last three or four months.

423
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 4: I mean, I've talked to you about inflation, which has

424
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 4: come down and broadened. You know, you now have the

425
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 4: percent of price increases over three percent or over five percent,

426
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 4: going back toward pre COVID norms. And that's very consistent

427
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 4: with what I'm hearing with businesses and consumers as I'm

428
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 4: talking to them. So what I think I'm hearing on

429
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 4: inflation is very consistent. Same thing unemployment. The labor market

430
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 4: is loosening. It's definitely not overheated the way it was before.

431
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 4: It's definitely not a problem either. You know, this low hiring,

432
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 4: low firing is a perfectly fine place to be. We're

433
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 4: still adding jobs. So I think in both cases, the

434
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 4: data is coming in very consistently, and that gives me confidence.

435
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 4: You may have been referring, though, to the benchmark revision

436
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,879
Speaker 4: that happened earlier this week, and that basically said for

437
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 4: last year's data, which was ridiculously high, now it was

438
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 4: just very, very high. And so again I didn't take

439
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 4: that much out of that data either. What is different

440
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,200
Speaker 4: about the labor market now, this is both a data

441
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,919
Speaker 4: thing and a reality thing. Is this big increase in

442
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 4: supply of labor by people who are seeing opportunities in

443
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 4: the workforce and coming into the country. And the question

444
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 4: of how that does or doesn't overwhelm the job creation

445
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 4: engine that we've got in the country. I think that

446
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 4: is an area of uncertainty that we'll see play out

447
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 4: over the next several quarters.

448
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 3: So I want to go back to something you said before,

449
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 3: which is that you think there could still be upside

450
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,439
Speaker 3: risk to inflation, at least in theory. You know, Powell

451
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 3: certainly didn't give that vibe today in his speech, At

452
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: least from his speech. He didn't. If he thinks that

453
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,919
Speaker 3: there's still upside risk to inflation. He didn't talk about that.

454
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 3: I'm curious why you think so and what's your concern there.

455
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 4: Well, I see inflation risk into upside risk in two places.

456
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 4: First is, we're at two and a half percent for

457
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 4: the last twelve months our targets too. So while we're

458
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 4: doing great at bringing it down from when it was

459
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 4: once seven point one, core is still at two and

460
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 4: a half percent, And even the most optimistic forecast for

461
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 4: the back half of this year don't believe it'll get

462
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 4: to two percent because the numbers are on a twelve

463
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 4: month based like on a twelve month basis, because the

464
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 4: last half of last year was also very good, and

465
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 4: so we're at least six months away even with really

466
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 4: good inflation data from the inflation numbers hitting two percent.

467
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 4: If the numbers are just pretty good, not really good,

468
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 4: there's a risk that we plateau at some level over

469
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 4: two percent. That's one risk. The other risk is I

470
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 4: do see medium term inflation pressures that are out there.

471
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 4: We have a conflict in the Middle East that could spiral.

472
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 4: Deglobalization is a very real risk, and that means that

473
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: the imports of goods could be more expensive going forward.

474
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 4: Or if we even reshore more expensive housings a place

475
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 4: where if rates artists start coming down, one of the

476
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 4: things I worry about is that will spool up demand

477
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 4: for people who've been waiting to buy a house till

478
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 4: mortgag traits come down. But there won't be any new

479
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 4: houses built. I mean, you don't. That effect is two years,

480
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 4: three years out. And so what happens if you have

481
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 4: more demand for houses with the same kind of supply,

482
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 4: or even if more houses come on the market. Everyone

483
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 4: who puts their house in the market is a buyer

484
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 4: and a seller, so you'd still have this excess of

485
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 4: demand over supply. So those things are potential inflationary risks. Now,

486
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 4: good policy works against that, and if we do the

487
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 4: right thing with rates, we'll work against But that's why

488
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 4: I just want to make sure I understand it and

489
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 4: see it before I sort of declare victory.

490
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 2: What's been the most surprising thing that you've heard at

491
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 2: Jackson Hole this year? You talked about German savings rate,

492
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 2: but beyond that, is there anything that caught your eye

493
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 2: or well?

494
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 4: Alan Blinder asked a question today that I thought was

495
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 4: pretty interesting. He said, when you think about monetary policy lags.

496
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 4: Why aren't you talking about how to shorten them? And

497
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 4: I've said almost as it's a given that when we

498
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 4: raise or lower rates it takes twelve to eighteen months

499
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 4: for the full effect to go into the economy. Well,

500
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 4: part of that is because the economy doesn't behave in

501
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 4: a way that would allow it to happen quicker. An example,

502
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 4: I think the number is in two thousand and nine,

503
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 4: sixty percent of these mortgages in this country were adjustable rate.

504
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 4: Today it's eight percent. Yeah, okay, And so when we

505
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 4: raise or lower rates, it doesn't flow through to mortgages quickly,

506
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 4: and certainly not even like it did fifteen years ago.

507
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 4: And I'm not saying we should change the mortgage market,

508
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,360
Speaker 4: but it does make you stop and think how much

509
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 4: of our policy the effectiveness of our policy tools, is

510
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 4: a given or how much could actually change over time

511
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 4: as the economy changed.

512
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, those legs, I mean, we talked about them a

513
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: lot on the way up, and you mentioned, you know,

514
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: you want to target for where you think you're going

515
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 3: to be in a year. You know, on the way down,

516
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 3: would you expect a sort of similarly long legs? So okay,

517
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 3: there's concern about the unemployment rate rising. We've already seen

518
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: it go to four point three percent. Maybe it's for

519
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 3: reasons that are not that bad this time, because of

520
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 3: the new supply of labor. But you know, every recession

521
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 3: that I can never remember started with a debate about

522
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 3: whether we're in a recession or not. And so I

523
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 3: don't take a ton of comfort from the ambiguity because

524
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 3: at the beginning there's all ambiguity, and you know, there

525
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 3: is certainly the question of, like, why did it take

526
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 3: so long into such aggressive hiking. You mentioned that at

527
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 3: the start of the hiking cycle you started small and

528
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 3: then had to start getting big when they weren't having

529
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 3: the effect you thought, do you have similar concerns in

530
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 3: the other direction that we could sort of see the

531
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 3: same problems except through mirror.

532
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 4: I actually think a large part of the economy is

533
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,959
Speaker 4: standing in readiness for the rate reduction cycle to start,

534
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 4: and I've talked to lots of businesses that are debating

535
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 4: when to start their capital spending. I've talked about housing

536
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 4: a second ago. I've talked to lots of realtors who

537
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 4: believe that once the mortgage rates hit six or go

538
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 4: under six. So I think there's a lot of demand

539
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 4: out there, and that is a little bit. That's both

540
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 4: good news if you were about the economy or the employment.

541
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 4: It's also risky if you're worried about inflation. But I

542
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 4: think that's out there. The one thing I worry about

543
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 4: is when I talk to especially real estate developers, about,

544
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 4: you know, when rates are back to normal. A lot

545
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 4: of times the number they have in their head is

546
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 4: what the rates were in April of twenty twenty one,

547
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 4: which was, you know, a mortgage rate of two point

548
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 4: six percent. I talked to somebody this week about well,

549
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 4: out of outside of recession. I don't think that's happening,

550
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 4: and so I just worry that expectations. You know, the

551
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 4: yield curve is inverted, for example, which means the long

552
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 4: term rate is lower than the short term rate. When

553
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 4: we lower the short term rate, which is all we do,

554
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 4: it's not a given that the long rate is just

555
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 4: going to come down a bunch more. It might, but

556
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 4: it might not. And so I do worry a little

557
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 4: bit that there are hopes out there that aren't in

558
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 4: alignment with reality.

559
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 2: Or there are plenty of people that think inflation coming

560
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 2: down means that prices are going to return to like

561
00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen levels, yeah, which doesn't really seem realistic on

562
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 2: this idea of normalization just going back to the labor market.

563
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 2: But people bring up that term and say, oh, the

564
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 2: labor market is normalizing, it's coming down from being red

565
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 2: hot to something more reasonable, more healthy potentially. But what

566
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 2: are we normalizing too in your opinion, Like, where do

567
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 2: you think we're actually heading? And is it possible that

568
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 2: the labor market in twenty twenty five looks very different

569
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: to say twenty nineteen or twenty eighteen.

570
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 4: In a perfect world, In a theoretical world, we would

571
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 4: lower our rates down to the neutral rate, our star,

572
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 4: and at that neutral rate, we would neither be stimulating

573
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 4: nor restricting the economy, and everyone who wants a job

574
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 4: would have a job, An inflation would be low and steady,

575
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 4: and we just rock on. That's not actually how things

576
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 4: work in practice. Things come in from left field, both

577
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 4: good news and bad news, inflationary and recessionary, and you

578
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 4: have to just make policy against what you've got. And

579
00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 4: so if you look at our forecasts, most of the

580
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 4: SEP estimates or that the neutral rates somewhere between two

581
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 4: and a half and three and a half percent. That's

582
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 4: for the overnight rate. The confidence interval when you get

583
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 4: into the models would add another one hundred basis points

584
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 4: on either side of that, So maybe it's one and

585
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: a half to four and a half. And so the

586
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 4: notion it gets back to the conviction that I was

587
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 4: talking about earlier. If you thought you knew, and you

588
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 4: thought you know we had hit the soft landing and

589
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 4: we were there, you would just lower the rate to

590
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 4: the neutral rate. You would declare victory, you'd have a party,

591
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 4: you'd put on the vest, the mission accomplished, all of

592
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 4: that stuff. It just doesn't feel like the right way

593
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 4: to do it. And that's why I call myself a

594
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 4: test and learn person, because I think you sort of

595
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 4: want to feel your way there, and you'll learn based

596
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 4: on whether inflation has settled or is accelerating. You'll learn

597
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 4: based on whether the labor market is growing or shrinking,

598
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 4: and you'll learn those things as you go. And you

599
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 4: had just rates as appropriate.

600
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: If the unemployment rate were to, say, drift up by

601
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: another half a percent, would that be mandate consistent? At

602
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 3: what point does the unemployment have to rise in your

603
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 3: view to say no? This is because Howell said he

604
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: doesn't want to say any more labor market weakening. There's

605
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 3: no more. At what point does labor market weakening mean

606
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 3: you've actually lost that leg of the mandate?

607
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 4: I mean, most people think the you star or the

608
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 4: neutral rate for or the non inflation exciting rate of

609
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 4: employment is about four four and a half somewhere in

610
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 4: that range. And I suspect that's what he was referring

611
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 4: to when he said that, because if it's at four

612
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 4: to three today, that's kind of what most people think

613
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 4: you STAR would be. I think I should come back

614
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 4: to an important concept, which is it's impossible to be

615
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 4: perfect here, and so we can spend lots and lots

616
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 4: and lots of time trying to navigate between one point

617
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 4: nine percent inflation and two and two point one and

618
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 4: two and four point three percent employment or four point

619
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 4: four or four point two, and so I think it's

620
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 4: really hard to land it in a perfect place and

621
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 4: then have it just stay perfect for forever.

622
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 3: The unemployment rate always seems to be moving in one Yeah.

623
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 4: These things are always moving, and so you react to

624
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 4: the economy you've got. And if unemployment is four point

625
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 4: eight percent, that's higher than I think most not all

626
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 4: of my colleagues assessment of what would be neutral, and

627
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 4: so that would be something you'd want to work against,

628
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 4: and you'd work really hard against it if inflation was

629
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 4: under control, and then you'd have some challenges if inflation

630
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 4: was out of and so are those are the kind

631
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 4: of debates you have, and we even said in our framework,

632
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 4: you know, you got to assess the balance of risks

633
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 4: across the two mandate goals. I mean, that's the challenge

634
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:23,719
Speaker 4: with having to du a mandate.

635
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 2: Okay, Tom Barkin, thank you so much for coming back

636
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: on all thoughts. Really appreciate it and great to catch

637
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 2: up with you in Jackson Hall and.

638
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 4: We'll all travel again together soon, I'm sure.

639
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Joe, that was fascinating and I'm so glad we

640
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: could get the perspective of an actual policymaker who has

641
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: been attending what was it seven of these things.

642
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's great. I really like talking to Tom. It's

643
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 3: interesting that he, at least from what you know, what

644
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 3: he said, it sounds like he've used things a little

645
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 3: bit differently than Chairman Powell. So, like I said, in

646
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 3: the speech that Powell gave, there was no talk of

647
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 3: inflation risks at this point. It was interesting to hear

648
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 3: Tom outline multiple reasons, and I think that housing one

649
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 3: in particular is very interesting. The idea that like you

650
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 3: have this lever which is you lower rates and then

651
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 3: people fled back into the housing market and the prices

652
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 3: go up, and then you just sort of like, it's interesting.

653
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 2: It seems difficult to calibrate the impact of a rate

654
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: cut right now. There is that sort of reflexivity where

655
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 2: you're addressing a potential issue, but by addressing that potential issue,

656
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: you could release additional demand and activity.

657
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 3: He also said, and I was thinking about asking a

658
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 3: follow up, but he said it, which is that you know,

659
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 3: when you described the low hiring low firing, that there

660
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 3: is still this residual concern about being caught short labor

661
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: among businesses, which I think is something we've talked about

662
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 3: a lot. This could be this assistant phenomenon, not just

663
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 3: in like this moment in the cycle, but for a while,

664
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,719
Speaker 3: the memories of being caught short labor as you know,

665
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 3: people to call labor hoarder or whatever, and keeping you know,

666
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 3: hopefully perhaps a lid on where the unemployment rate goes.

667
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 2: Well, that's true of inflation too, right. Barkin has spoken

668
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: about this, this idea that will companies learn that they

669
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: can raise their prices in an inflationary environment, and so

670
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 2: perhaps the next time inflation risks start to emerge, they'll

671
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 2: be even faster at doing that.

672
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 3: Well, I think that we need to start propagating the

673
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 3: notion of employment expectations. So the idea of inflation expectations, right,

674
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 3: is you want to keep inflation expectations well anchored, because

675
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 3: if people start to believe that inflation is going to rise,

676
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 3: then they're going to behave as if inflation is going

677
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 3: to rise, and that will create inflation. I don't really

678
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 3: understand why you don't hear the same conversation about employment expectations,

679
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 3: which is, if you think the unemployment rate is going

680
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 3: to stay low, then you were going to be slower

681
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 3: to fire for the exact reason he said, and that

682
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,719
Speaker 3: will keep the unemployment rate low. And so I believe

683
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 3: that actually there is an opportunity to sort of like

684
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 3: realize that this sort of the expectations beget reality story

685
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 3: that people tell on the inflation side could also play

686
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 3: out on the employment side.

687
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we kind of saw that already. Yeah,

688
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 2: it rose twenty twenty where everyone was talking about labor

689
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 2: shortages and so they sort of manifested themselves.

690
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 3: And so I think we need to start hearing feed

691
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 3: officials say we need to keep employment expectations well anchored.

692
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 3: I like that. Thank you.

693
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 2: You should write about that. Will Okay, shall we leave

694
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:38,719
Speaker 2: it there?

695
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: Let's leave it there.

696
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the Oudlots podcast. I'm

697
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 2: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

698
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

699
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 3: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Kerman armand Dash Will

700
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 3: been At at Dashbot and kel Brooks at Kelbrooks. Thank

701
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: you to our producer Moses Ondam. More odd Loots content

702
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 3: go to Bloomberg dot com, slash odd lots, were have

703
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 3: trans groups, a blog, in a newsletter, and you can

704
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 3: chat about all of these topics twenty four to seven

705
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: in our discord with fellow listeners discord dot gg slash

706
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 3: poplines and.

707
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 2: If you enjoy all thoughts, if you like it when

708
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 2: we catch up with Tom Barkin, then please leave us

709
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 2: a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember

710
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 2: if you are a Bloomberg subscriber you can listen to

711
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 2: all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need

712
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: to do is connect your Bloomberg account with Apple Podcasts.

713
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 2: In order to do that, just go on the platform,

714
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 2: look for the Bloomberg channel and follow the instructions there.

715
00:34:33,040 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening, Yes,