1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: The Big Vets on Campus podcast podcast PODCA. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,079 Speaker 3: Spreading the corn ten seconds or maining to just go 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,240 Speaker 3: show up to the basket. 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 4: Under the basket. 6 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: It's the true for the wind God. 7 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 2: A miracle, I just stop the water hit that. 8 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: One from the parking lot. 9 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to are a special final four player 10 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 3: props episode with all eyes on San Antonio. 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: We had to get the whole gang together. 12 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 3: That means Sean, doctor Nick, Eric Binfor and myself and 13 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 3: no pressure to Sean and Nick. 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: But Eric and I went six and oh last week. 15 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 3: Actually, now checking seems like the JP top and fiasco 16 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 3: sorted itself out. 17 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: Did you guys also go six and oh? 18 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: Sean? 19 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, well we did go six and oh, 20 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 5: but it took a few days to get there. Uh, 21 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 5: the JT Toppin debacle finally got settled. I mean it 22 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 5: was the clearest rebound you've ever seen in your entire life. 23 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 5: The announcer even said it. But for whatever, the scorekeeper 24 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 5: there gave it to Hawkins. So it took a lot 25 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 5: of like screaming on my end, but we got that result, 26 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 5: thank god. 27 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 2: So we yeah we went six and oh. 28 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 6: Yeah, they gave it to the guy who was behind 29 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 6: the three point line and Toppin was under the basket. 30 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 3: So yeah, were they strongly worded letters like how did 31 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,479 Speaker 3: you get in front of the rights at NC double 32 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:24,839 Speaker 3: A overlords de Bible? 33 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: That's wrong? 34 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: I definitely. 35 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 5: I think I used some curse words, but I tweeted 36 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 5: it out and just got enough traction. I don't know 37 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 5: if I was personally responsible, but like I felt like 38 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 5: somebody had. 39 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 2: To, you know, do something about it because it was 40 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 2: so blatant. 41 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 5: But yeah, it took like three days to resolve this thing, 42 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 5: so hopefully that doesn't happen this weekend for anybody. 43 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 3: Now, before we get into our picks, we're going to 44 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 3: go through both national semifinals give out a. 45 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: Pick each in each game. 46 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 3: We know we can be tricky to find these player props, 47 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 3: so what we're going to do is make it as 48 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 3: easy as possible for you. If you're watching now on YouTube. 49 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 3: In the chat, we're gonna have quick slip links that 50 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 3: are going to link directly to your sports book, So 51 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 3: all you have to do is click on those, it's 52 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 3: going to load up, and then you can place your bet. 53 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 3: Let's get started with the SEC rematch between the Tigers 54 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 3: and Gators Auburn Florida. Florida really handed it to Auburn 55 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 3: on their home floor game a nine point loss, and 56 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 3: for that effort, they are a short favorite here in 57 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 3: the rematch, laying two and a half the total set 58 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 3: at one hundred and fifty nine and a half. Sean, 59 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 3: talk to me about Alburn's backcourt and what you're targeting 60 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 3: for your first player prob. 61 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 5: Yeah, So for my first prop, I'm gonna go with 62 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 5: Merrill Kelly under Fournhouse strikeouts. Just kidding, Miles, I gave 63 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 5: that out earlier, Miles Kelly of Auburn. I'm going with 64 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 5: under twelve and a half points at minus one thirty. 65 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 5: This is actually a Nick and I collab our model 66 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 5: is showing quite a bit of value on the under, 67 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 5: which is interesting because you know, he's been held. He's 68 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 5: been really stinking it up the past three games. He's 69 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 5: been held to eight point or less in three straight 70 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 5: games after putting up twenty three against Alabama State in 71 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 5: the opening round. So he's just been ice cold these 72 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 5: last few games. Still taking plenty of shots, so you know, 73 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 5: normally this might be a decent Bilo situation. Because he 74 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 5: is going to bounce back at some point. But even 75 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 5: if you applied you know, his season long shooting stats 76 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 5: to the Lasser games, he would have only been expected 77 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 5: to score about eleven and a half points anyway, And 78 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 5: this is a terrible spot to really, you know, be 79 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 5: expecting a bounce back game. As you know, Florida has 80 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 5: the fifth lowest effective field goal percentage allowed in the country, 81 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 5: so we still kind of expect them kind of struggle 82 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 5: shooting the ball, and if anything, he may start taking 83 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 5: fewer shots just given how cold he's been. So it's 84 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 5: kind of going against him in both ways here. So 85 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 5: we're projecting closer to ten and a half points with 86 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 5: quite a. 87 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 2: Bit of value on these numbers. 88 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 5: I mean, he has such a lower point total in 89 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 5: the way his point distribution is. We're giving him like 90 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 5: a sixty seven percent chance he stays under twelve and 91 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 5: a half. If this does ten, you know it's going 92 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 5: to probably drop to eleven out points. Still like it, 93 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 5: there still about a sixty percent chance he stays under 94 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 5: eleven and a half points here. 95 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: Doctor Nick. This is a collab. 96 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: As Sean said, do you have any concerns about potential 97 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 3: game flow and this one's turning into a track meets 98 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 3: seven one hundred and seventy one points scored on the 99 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 3: planes in their first meeting. If it does hit that 100 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy point threshold, does that start to 101 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 3: put the model on this projection for this particular player 102 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 3: in Jeopardy. 103 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 6: Not really. I mean, you know, the current total is 104 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 6: right around one sixties, so if it gets up to 105 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 6: one seventy, it's not a massive point increase. And like 106 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,040 Speaker 6: Sean said, you know we're showing around ten and a 107 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 6: half as his projection. So if ten points in this 108 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 6: whole game more are scored, you can assume it's about 109 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 6: four or five for Auburn, and you got to distribute 110 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 6: that among Jenni, Broom, Patafair, Jones, et cetera. Right, So 111 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 6: you know, even if it gets up into the one seventies, 112 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:00,679 Speaker 6: I still like the you're here. 113 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 3: Now, Doctor Nick just mentioned to Hot Pettiford, one of 114 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 3: my favorite players in college basketball. Mister telephone man, you're 115 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 3: gonna see him popping those celebrations on any three pointer 116 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 3: or the whole bench goes nuts. Eric, what do you 117 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 3: like in terms of his player props in the market 118 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 3: right now? 119 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, you guys are on some Auburn unders. I'm not 120 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 4: going to spoil what you got coming, Mike, and I 121 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 4: agree with those statements, but you did mention one hundred 122 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 4: and seventy one points in the first outing. We do 123 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 4: have a total around one point sixty here. Someone is 124 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 4: going to score some points for Auburn, and I lean 125 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 4: into to hot Pettiford here for that. Again, Auburn team 126 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 4: total around seventy eight and a half scored eighty one 127 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 4: in the first game win. They didn't even really play 128 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 4: very well. We know J and I Broom is banged up, 129 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 4: just a myriad of injuries for Broom. Pettiford is really 130 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 4: stepped up in the NCAA tournament here as Auburn has 131 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 4: shrunk their rotation down to really it's really seven guys, 132 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 4: call it seven and a half. Chris More might get 133 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 4: in the game if someone's in foul trouble or something 134 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 4: and they're gonna need a score. We know Florida is 135 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 4: going to score or a boatload of points. It could 136 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 4: turn into it track me, but either way, Pettiford has 137 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 4: gone over this number in four of five. The only 138 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 4: game he didn't in the tournament thus far was Michigan State, 139 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 4: you know, a pretty darn tough defense, and his usage 140 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 4: rate over these last five games has been nearly twenty 141 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 4: seven percent, twenty six and a half percent. He's gonna 142 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 4: take the most shots outside of Jenni Broom on the team. 143 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 4: You know, if we use his rates for the season 144 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 4: and project forward and Jenni Broom's a little bit banged up, 145 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 4: are they gonna try to take him away? Is he 146 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 4: going to look to pass a little more? Is that 147 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 4: arm gonna be dangling down down by the side. 148 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 1: And Pettiford has to step up. 149 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 4: He's the one guy that can kind of go get 150 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 4: his own shot, I think for Auburn, and I'm not 151 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 4: sure if they're gonna be able to sneak out a 152 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 4: win here. So down the stretch we could be seeing 153 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 4: a whole bunch of Pettiford, and I think some points 154 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 4: are coming for the for the guard, and maybe even 155 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 4: some more minutes than we've seen. 156 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 1: You mentioned Jani Broom. 157 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 3: I'm actually gonna go under on one of his props 158 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 3: twenty nine and a half points plus rebounds. It pains 159 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 3: me as a player that was in the running for 160 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 3: the Naysmith National Player of the Year consideration. He's been 161 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 3: so gutty, he's played through so many injuries. Then he 162 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 3: hyper extends his knee. You don't have to be a 163 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 3: medical professional to have seen that against Michigan State. 164 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: Also has an. 165 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 3: Elbow strain in the same game, comes back in the 166 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 3: adrenalines flow and gets a rebound, knocks down to three. 167 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 3: That's phenomenal. The kid's a warrior. He's going to play 168 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 3: through anything in this game. But the fact of the 169 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 3: matter is you add that to a list of injuries 170 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 3: that he's already had. His shoulder has not been one 171 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 3: hundred percent for most of the season, so the potential 172 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 3: for him not to get to his thirty minute average 173 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 3: is at least in my opinion, significant because you also 174 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 3: have Florida being able to throw waves of bodies at him, 175 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 3: and in the first meeting he did cruise past this number. 176 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,679 Speaker 3: But that's without Hankleton coming off the bench for the Gators. 177 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 3: Just another seven footer who can make it difficult both 178 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 3: to crash the offensive and defensive glass and also those 179 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 3: buckets at the rim and near the basket. 180 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:48,239 Speaker 1: It is not going to be gimmes. 181 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 3: Hankleton has played twelve minutes per game off the bench 182 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 3: since the SEC tournament, So just another added big in 183 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 3: the Florida front court. And then finally, when you look 184 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 3: at the last game, Michigan was successful with their two 185 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 3: seven footers getting broom in foul tr He fouled out 186 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 3: of that game, so I think it could be susceptible 187 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 3: to a whistle or two in this game. And if so, 188 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 3: if he has to go to the bench in the 189 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 3: first half, twenty nine and a half seems to be 190 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 3: a significantly higher number than I think he could get 191 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 3: to if he only plays twenty five minutes. So I 192 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 3: have certainly I have outs in this position with officiating, 193 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 3: with the injuries, it doesn't feel all that great to 194 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 3: be rooting for an injury. But I'm hoping that he 195 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 3: can go under this number of twenty nine and a half. 196 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 7: Head course, shots and Mad Scott spuzz A Beta. 197 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 8: Busha. 198 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: That's so muchius part. 199 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 2: Keep cheering. 200 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 8: Disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores. 201 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 2: That's what marges. 202 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 3: All right, Let's turn to the second game in the 203 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 3: Final four in San Antonio. The Duke Blue Devils are 204 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 3: favored by five and a half or six out of 205 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 3: the market against the Houston Cougar is the total sitting 206 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 3: at one thirty. 207 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 1: Five and a half. I have a feeling there's going 208 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: to be some unders that showed value. Is that what 209 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: you're seeing, Sean? 210 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 2: Oh? 211 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, And it's actually my favorite under of the entire tournament, 212 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 5: or has been. 213 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 2: It's l J. 214 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 5: Cryer of Houston to go under two and a half 215 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 5: rebounds at minus one point fifteen. 216 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 2: Like I said, I've bet this. 217 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 5: I think I bet it the first three rounds, at 218 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 5: least two of the first three rounds, and I believe 219 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 5: two of the games he had like two boards before halftime, 220 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 5: so everyone's all yelling at me and everything, and then 221 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 5: sure enough, you know, nothing the rest of the way. 222 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 5: So these can be a little bit scary because it 223 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 5: is such a low number, but he's not out there 224 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 5: trying to get boards. And then last game, luckily I 225 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 5: took it off because I was all over the under 226 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 5: one hundred and twenty six and a half for the 227 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 5: Tennessee Houston gamers dubbed it and discord the Bunny Blue Invitational. 228 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 5: But you know, I was I was expecting and you know, 229 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 5: rooting for a ton of potential rebounds to go around. 230 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 5: So you know, I was kind of shocked to see 231 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 5: him with seven boards, but not really because I expected 232 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 5: that to be a low scoring, ugly game. 233 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 2: But I'm right back on his under right here. You know. 234 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 5: He uh, you know, the you know Houston typically you know, 235 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 5: allows a ton of misshots, a ton of potential rebounds. 236 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 5: But now they're going up against you know, the best 237 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 5: offense in the entire country and Duke and an excellent 238 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,239 Speaker 5: shooting team, so we're just expecting, you know, fewer rebounds 239 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 5: to go around. So that's why I'm back on the 240 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 5: Crier under two and a half rebound train here, and 241 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 5: we're projecting at closer two point one with about a 242 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,719 Speaker 5: sixty five percent chance to stay under. He hasn't let 243 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 5: me down yet, so hopefully we can keep this Crier 244 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 5: wagon going here. 245 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: Nick, is this another collab or you bring with something 246 00:10:58,720 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 1: solo for the Duke? 247 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 2: He game? 248 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 6: Well, yeah, I'm on this one with Sean. We It 249 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 6: was funny we were slacking earlier today and he said 250 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 6: he got his picks in and I said, you know, 251 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 6: hit me with them? 252 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: Is one of them, Miles Kelly And. 253 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 6: He was like, yeah, actually, and the other one Crier 254 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 6: And I was like, I knew he was gonna go crier, 255 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 6: so I let him have that one. 256 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 2: But it is a collapse. 257 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 6: But I'll give a different pick, and I'm going to 258 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 6: go to the Duke's side of the ball here, and 259 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 6: I'm going to take Duke's seon James to have three 260 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 6: plus assists. You can get that at plus one seventy 261 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 6: at DraftKings that three six five. They'll have different numbers 262 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 6: here or about the same number there, So a little 263 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 6: half unit play. Look, dukes implied team total here versus 264 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 6: Houston's around seventy seventy one points based off of you know, 265 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 6: the betting lines here. So if we look at the 266 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 6: eleven games this year where Duke scored seventy five or 267 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:58,439 Speaker 6: less points, James averaged two point four to five assists 268 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 6: in twenty four point five minutes. So that's perfectly one 269 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 6: assists every ten minutes. And that's because a lot of 270 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 6: those games early in the year, when when Duke had 271 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 6: some lower scoring games for them, James was coming off 272 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 6: the bench. But now he's a starter and he's playing 273 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 6: in that twenty eight to thirty minute range most games. 274 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 6: So that's right around what Sean and I have him 275 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 6: projected for, which would be around two point eight to 276 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 6: three assists if he were to play that much. But 277 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 6: of course Houston they allow the fifty fourth highest assist 278 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 6: rate out of three hundred and sixty four Division one teams, right, 279 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 6: so they definitely allow a higher assist rate than normal 280 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 6: unmade shots. Now, making shots against them is tough, and 281 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 6: that you play at a slow pace, so you know, 282 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 6: we definitely have to adjust that two point eight three 283 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 6: point zero number for those things. You adjusted up for 284 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 6: the higher assist rate, but youst it down for being 285 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 6: harder to score against. And we come right out to 286 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 6: two point eight and Cooper Flag, right, his shot usage 287 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 6: goes up against these top fifty, top twenty five teams, 288 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 6: So I expect Sion James to be looking for Cooper 289 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 6: Flag quite a bit here. I don't really want to 290 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 6: ladder this to like four or five plus assists because 291 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 6: of Houston's slow pace. They're great defense, but I think 292 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 6: three plus set plus one seventy is nice because we're 293 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 6: projecting two point eight, which means he's basically you know 294 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 6: that that's the average, so the median will be around 295 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 6: two and a half, so we're projecting it basically a 296 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 6: coin flip on whether he gets three plus assists. So 297 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 6: I love getting some big plus money here. 298 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: From a national perspective, Cooper Flag Continent Bull. They suck 299 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: up all the auction this team. 300 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 3: But it seems as though James is a popular guy 301 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 3: in this episode. Eric, you also have a player prop 302 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 3: for him. 303 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 4: Yeah, apparently Sion James is going to have a big 304 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 4: game here because I'm on a couple of se on 305 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,440 Speaker 4: James or more two or more three pointers in this game. 306 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 4: Nick broke down some great things as to why he's 307 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 4: going to help as a facilitator against this Houston defense. 308 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 4: But I also think their scheme is it's really oddly specific. 309 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 4: As great of a defense as they are, they are 310 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 4: hyper aggressive. They blitz ball screen. They call it monster, 311 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,719 Speaker 4: so they even have an intimidating name for the way 312 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 4: that they play the ball screen. And they trap the 313 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 4: post every single time. So there's not going to be 314 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 4: post scoring and you're not going to score out of 315 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 4: the pick and roll. 316 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: So what does that mean? 317 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 4: That means a lot of what we call second side 318 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:18,839 Speaker 4: three point attempts, right, So you see guys skip it 319 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 4: over the top, you see a blitzing pick and roll, 320 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 4: you swing it to the next guy and he finds 321 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 4: somebody over in the opposite side corner. Who is that 322 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 4: very frequently for Duke Sion James. He's not the primary 323 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 4: ball handler. He's kind of there to be a three 324 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 4: and D type guy, and so he should get an 325 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 4: elevated amount of attempts. He's not a super high volume 326 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 4: three point shooter, but he is a lethal one. He's 327 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 4: taken one hundred and eighty one three pointers from last 328 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 4: season at Tulane and this season at Duke combined, and 329 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 4: in both of those seasons he's made forty percent. This 330 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 4: year at Duke, taking probably a lot more uncontested threes 331 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 4: like he might get this weekend, he's made forty two 332 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 4: percent of his three pointers. Houston has allowed with that defense, 333 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 4: that trapping, really aggressive defense. They allowed the forty sixth 334 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 4: highest rate of three pointers in the entire country. We 335 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 4: just saw Tennessee, who is a somewhat high volume three 336 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 4: point shooting team, and Perdue, who just wants to run 337 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 4: the pick and roll with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman 338 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 4: h get. 339 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: Up fifty six total threes. 340 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 4: I think Houston, probably smartly so would rather get beaten 341 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 4: by seaon James than Cooper Flag and Konkin Nipple and 342 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 4: all of those guys. So even though he's not a 343 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 4: super high volume three point shooter, he's a great one, 344 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 4: and I expect we do see a slight uptick in 345 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 4: that volume from the way that Houston schemes things on defense, 346 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 4: and so I think that he's going to be open 347 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 4: quite a bit and he's a really big time knockdown 348 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 4: shooter there. So I think we got a shot for 349 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 4: two or three three pointers from James in this one. 350 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 3: Let's have the three pointers continue to rain down at 351 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 3: San Antonio. I'm going to go with Milos Uzan three 352 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 3: or more triples at plus three ten swinging big here 353 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 3: in the final four. Listen, this offense took a huge 354 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 3: step forward once he became a consistent threat on the 355 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 3: perimeter about. 356 00:15:57,760 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 1: Midway through the season. 357 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 3: And when you look at his last three team games, 358 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 3: he's had three or more triples in five of those games. 359 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 3: And then if you remove the game against SIU Edwardsville, 360 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 3: that blowout one Verse sixteen matchup, right away, he's averaged 361 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 3: thirty four minutes per game on the floor. So you 362 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 3: got the usage, you got the minutes on the floor, 363 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 3: they're going to look to him. But the big element 364 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 3: the game within the game here is the Duke defense. 365 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 3: Their interior defense is fortress like. Even if you get 366 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 3: by with the screen or off the dribble, they're just 367 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 3: swadding everything away. 368 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: They got monsters in the lane. 369 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 3: And for that reason, if Houston has a chance to 370 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 3: win in this game, they're going to have to take 371 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 3: a lot of threes, and. 372 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: Duke allows for that. 373 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 3: When you look at Duke's defense this year, they're averaging 374 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 3: twenty two and a half attempts against them from long range. Also, 375 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 3: from a game flow perspective, if you go purely by 376 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 3: the point spread, it stands the reason that Houston's going 377 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 3: to be playing catch up late in this game and 378 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 3: firing away from three point range. So at north of 379 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 3: three to one, I think there's too much value on 380 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 3: a forty four point five percent shooter from long range. 381 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 3: He's somebody who can turn the tide for them in 382 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 3: this game. I think he's at the very least going 383 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 3: to attempt six to three pointers in this one. You've 384 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 3: seen huge performances where he's flirted with double digit three 385 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:04,880 Speaker 3: point attempts, So I think the value is just too 386 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 3: high to pass up, and it's nice to end the 387 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 3: episode on something that is a little bit more fun 388 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 3: to root for it. You know you're gonna be sweating 389 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 3: out that LJ cryer under on the rebounds, even though 390 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 3: I agree, I think it's a great bet. A six 391 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 3: to one rebounding guard who's very has very little interest 392 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 3: in crashing the glass. 393 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: But we'll end it with. 394 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 3: You know, something that you can triple your money on, 395 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 3: So going over you zan three pointers made three at 396 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 3: plus three ten, All right, that's going to do it 397 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 3: for us. A reminder that BBOC Live is going live 398 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 3: on Saturday morning. That means that we're gonna break down 399 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 3: every final elements of the Final four any news on injuries, availability, 400 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 3: market movement, stucky, Greg Waddell. We're gonna have some special 401 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 3: guests as well, so be sure to tune in for that. 402 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,400 Speaker 3: For Doctor Nick, for Sean Kerner, for Eric binfour. I'm 403 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 3: Mike Calberies. Thank you so much for listening to our 404 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 3: Final four player prop episode, and a reminder in the chat, 405 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 3: if you want to go ahead and tail some of 406 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 3: these bets, you can go ahead with our quick slips. 407 00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 1: That are all set up for you. Thanks so much 408 00:17:59,240 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: and best. 409 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 7: Luck with your US head course shots and mascot Suzzer 410 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 7: Beta Sazacco Bosha, that's shut lunchus fall. 411 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 2: Keep cheering. 412 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 8: Disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores Fat 413 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 8: Slay Marchesa. 414 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 2: Say you play, Oh no, no, mad got a little 415 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 2: madness in my eye. 416 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: Let me out my moment. 417 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 2: Jump Slam marches. 418 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or 419 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Helps available 420 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 3: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler