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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right. Here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're growing into spec I'm saying it to cats touchdown.

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Speaker 3: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, but they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right?

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kaba.

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Speaker 3: You want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What up? And welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 3: Week fifteen betting preview with odds courtesy of bet MGM,

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Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 3: joined as always by my Action Network colleague and the

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister of Degenerate.

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Speaker 1: Nation, Stucky.

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Speaker 3: But before I kick it to you, Stuck, I just

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Speaker 3: want to give our listeners a heads up right off

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Speaker 3: the top here. As most of you have seen by now,

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Speaker 3: COVID nineteen outbreaks are just tearing through the NFL at

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Speaker 3: the moment, which means way more uncertainty in the betting market.

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Speaker 3: We've got some crazy line moves, we've got some games

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Speaker 3: off the board.

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Speaker 1: It's just wild right now.

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Speaker 3: So because of that, Stucky and I are going to

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Speaker 3: do things a little bit different this week. And it's

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Speaker 3: a good news bad news situation. The bad news is

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Speaker 3: we won't be doing a full Sunday six pack today.

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Speaker 3: The good news is we will be releasing an extra

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Speaker 3: bonus episode on Friday afternoon on today's show. We will

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Speaker 3: still give out six picks. Each of us will give

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Speaker 3: a favorite side, total and Teaser. Will also do a

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Speaker 3: moneyline Doug, and we will still cover every game Survivor picks.

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Speaker 1: All that good stuff.

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Speaker 3: Just won't finalize the Sunday six pack, but you'll get

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Speaker 3: a second bonus episode that will drop Friday after we

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Speaker 3: get more news, more player availability, all that good stuff.

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Speaker 3: So again, Stucky and I will have two episodes week,

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Speaker 3: So be on the lookout for our Week fifteen Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack in full bonus episode on Friday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: Stuck, What's going on?

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Speaker 2: I will just be fifteen to twenty minutes, and it'll

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Speaker 2: include our favorite side that we're gonna give out today,

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Speaker 2: one of our favorite sides, and then two other ones

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Speaker 2: will recap. I'm ready to move on to Week fifteen.

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Speaker 2: It was probably the most torturous Sunday I've ever had

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Speaker 2: in my entire life betting NFL. I mean, I was

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Speaker 2: at the Ravens game. The only thing that really could

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Speaker 2: have caused me pain was them to win by one

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Speaker 2: or two, because I laid two and a half for

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Speaker 2: a lot of money and I'm obviously a Ravens fan.

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Speaker 2: They're twenty one at one point and Lamar Jackson gets hurt.

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Speaker 2: I guess it's fitting I lost another backup quarterback, this

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Speaker 2: time about twenty one. You know, the Browns just basically said,

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Speaker 2: my old handicums, A're gonna be able to throw it whenever they want.

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Speaker 2: And then the Browns just said, Okay, we're playing a backup,

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Speaker 2: let's just run the ball, and they didn't step on

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Speaker 2: their throw. Then everything possible went wrong, and I told

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Speaker 2: people that I was sitting with it. Also, the brides

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Speaker 2: of the Ravens are gonna going by two. I mean

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Speaker 2: the Browns gonna going by two now. When there was

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Speaker 2: fifteen point game at the end of the third quarter

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Speaker 2: and the Browns shanked a field goal off the post,

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Speaker 2: then you had a Baker Mayfield interception field goal cut

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Speaker 2: it to fifteen Browns field goal miss. Then the third

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Speaker 2: and eleven laid hit unbelievable call. Ravens got to score

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Speaker 2: a touchdown and as I tweeted out, I said, here's

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Speaker 2: gonna happen, but it's gonna score touch and they're not

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Speaker 2: going to get the two because they're going to go

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Speaker 2: for the two, and they did. So it was a

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Speaker 2: nine point game. And what that means is the Browns

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Speaker 2: aren't going to try anymore because they're up two possessions.

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Speaker 2: Then the Ravens get a fourth and eleven, a fourth

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Speaker 2: and four, I mean, you name it. And the worst

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Speaker 2: part is I'm sitting in the stadium and I'm watching

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Speaker 2: Tuckers about the gal becas they're down nine. So now

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Speaker 2: a field going to touchdown. He's made a fifty five yarder,

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Speaker 2: a fifty four yarder, and they decide to pull him

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Speaker 2: back and go for it on fourth and four, and

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Speaker 2: they get another conversion and they throw a bomb down

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Speaker 2: with the one yard line. Then they obviously get the

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Speaker 2: on side kicker, then don't get the fourth down and

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Speaker 2: can't score for me to win the game. So then

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Speaker 2: I go back to my friends and we have a

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Speaker 2: huge bet on the Bills plus three and a half

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Speaker 2: down twenty one. Also, they come all the way back

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Speaker 2: and I guess it was fitting that I lose another

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Speaker 2: overtime game with a dog catching more than three. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: very frustrating day, But it's an NFL season, Like, the

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Speaker 2: variance is very high in one single NFL season. If

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Speaker 2: the overtime games, if the two point conversions aren't going

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Speaker 2: away for a couple of Sundays, you're gonna feel it.

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Speaker 2: So all you can do is keep marching on.

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Speaker 3: That Bill's game was kind of unbelievable in the sense of, like,

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Speaker 3: I feel like that's happened a few times now where

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Speaker 3: a team has like not the first possession and still

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Speaker 3: wins by a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: Like the odds of that happening are.

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Speaker 2: Just I had the Cowboys on mynother one of my

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Speaker 2: contest books this year plus, I mean, the Patriots plus

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Speaker 2: four and a half against the Cowboys. Got the ball

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Speaker 2: first and then the Cowboys scored a fifty yard touchdown

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Speaker 2: almost the same exact play.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you think that's that's kind of how

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Speaker 3: the you know, the books make money. It's you know,

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Speaker 3: those those three and a half with the hook is

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Speaker 3: because you get to overtime and those kind of game.

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Speaker 1: I feel your praying.

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Speaker 3: I knew that was a tough one for you, So

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Speaker 3: I'm not even gonna yeah, it's not gonna talk about it.

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Speaker 2: It's been my best year of closing line value ever

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, and that's a huge if we're NFL,

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Speaker 2: more so than any other score. The reason we always

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Speaker 2: talk about closing on value there are groups that are

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Speaker 2: betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on NFL games someone

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Speaker 2: Sunday when limits open up closer to the weekend. This

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Speaker 2: is the most efficient betting market in the world. Like

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Speaker 2: lines when they close are going to be really efficient.

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Speaker 2: One year in the past twenty has the opening line

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Speaker 2: been more efficient than the closing line. And again there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of variants in one NFL season. This year

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Speaker 2: so far, the opening line has been more efficient than

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Speaker 2: the closing line. Think about all the times where we've

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Speaker 2: had the you know, against the Cardinals or the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: with the backup quarterback comes into line swing seven points

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Speaker 2: and then it doesn't matter. So it's been a very

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Speaker 2: odd year. I do want to just two other points

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Speaker 2: that I want to recap because this will be a

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Speaker 2: quicker episode with a lot of uncertainty. Just high level

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Speaker 2: scoring is down this year from about twenty four point

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Speaker 2: eight per team last year to about twenty three point two,

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Speaker 2: crowd noise maybe making a little harder for offenses because

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Speaker 2: plays per game are down a little bit, yards were

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Speaker 2: played very slightly. And one of the main things is

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Speaker 2: holding calls are up a fun one point seven last year,

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Speaker 2: which was a record low, up to about two point

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Speaker 2: sixty five, so almost one additional holding call per game,

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Speaker 2: which can you know, kill a drive? Average points per

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Speaker 2: drive this year two point oh five right around you

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Speaker 2: know where it wasn't twenty nineteen twenty eight compared to

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Speaker 2: two point two last year. And yeah, then the other

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Speaker 2: thing I wanted to mention is road teams road teams.

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Speaker 2: Home field avantage continues to just dwindle. One hundred and

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Speaker 2: four hundred and one and one straight up on the

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Speaker 2: money line, road two is fifty point seven percent average

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Speaker 2: margin of victory about minus point five. So again small

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Speaker 2: sample sizes in the NFL, but it just once again

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Speaker 2: illustrates that home field advantage is dwindling. But it seems

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Speaker 2: to still have an impact on scoring, although I think

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Speaker 2: that the holding calls in the way that games are

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Speaker 2: being called has an impact on that. Although we are

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Speaker 2: still seeing fourth downs increase, offenses are going for it

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Speaker 2: more one point three to seven fourth downs per game,

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Speaker 2: compared to one point two to eight last year. Man,

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Speaker 2: if only the Bills didn't get their fourth down the

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Speaker 2: one time I don't want a team to get a

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Speaker 2: fourth down, they couldn't get there at the end of the

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Speaker 2: vending would have lost by three. But you'll continue to

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Speaker 2: see that added aggressiveness. And then moving on to this week,

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Speaker 2: which is going to be a topic throughout our show.

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Speaker 2: It's the COVID trying to deal with that uncertainty. One

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Speaker 2: hundred players, one hundred plus players down on the COVID list,

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Speaker 2: eighty five in the past three days, nine teams down

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Speaker 2: COVID protocols holding virtual meetings. So yeah, then you have

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Speaker 2: backup quarterbacks. So a lot of uncertainty this week. If

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Speaker 2: you're gonna bet, just know that your line might move

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Speaker 2: against you. You might be you know, it might work

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Speaker 2: for you, might work against you. But there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of uncertainty. We'll try to cover a lot of that

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Speaker 2: here as we go through the games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that was well said.

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Speaker 3: You know, as if you followed me in the app,

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Speaker 3: I only bet one bet. It's actually not the bet

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna make on a six pack because there is

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Speaker 3: some injury news that we might get there might be

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Speaker 3: an even better line for to use on the show.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it's one of those years where, especially now

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Speaker 3: with the with the variant kind of increase in the

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Speaker 3: value in betting early I think.

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Speaker 1: Has decreased a little bit.

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Speaker 3: And that's kind of to your point about the open

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Speaker 3: the lines, So you know, it's it's it's kind of

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Speaker 3: you just gotta you just gotta do your analysis and

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Speaker 3: after the final injury news.

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Speaker 1: Comes out and and go with it.

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Speaker 3: I don't think yeah, yeah, I was just gonna say,

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Speaker 3: and what will make what will make or break your

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Speaker 3: NFL season is You're gonna have good runs and bad runs.

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Speaker 2: I tweet this all the time. You're gonna have, you know,

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Speaker 2: horribly cap Sundays, but you're you're gonna have really good

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Speaker 2: caps on but then you're just gonna have Sundays where

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Speaker 2: everything goes your way and then Sundays everything goes against you.

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Speaker 2: What will make or break you as a better especially

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, is how you react to those days.

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Speaker 2: You have to accept those those bad days where everything

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Speaker 2: goes against you, and on top of that, you might

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Speaker 2: have some poorly capkus. That's it, you gotta eat it.

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Speaker 2: You can't chase on the Sunday night game. You can't

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Speaker 2: chase on the Monday night game. I tell all my

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Speaker 2: casual betting friends, if you're gonna bet the Sunday night

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Speaker 2: or Monday night game, look at them now. Bet them

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Speaker 2: on Saturday, bet them on Friday. And that's the that

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Speaker 2: you go with the most people aren't going to do that.

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Speaker 2: But if you are just gonna end up talking about it,

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Speaker 2: don't chase. You have people that, oh, you're down a lot,

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Speaker 2: and then they want to get their bounce. Those are the

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Speaker 2: habits that you have to get out of because that's

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Speaker 2: what makes a losing better, a truly losing better over time.

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Speaker 2: So just accept the fact that you're going to have

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Speaker 2: horrible days. I mean I had to sit in that

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Speaker 2: brown state and walk out with as a Ravens fan.

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Speaker 2: Just eat it and move on. We're on the week fifteen.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Two quick reminders.

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Speaker 3: First, in case you're new here, please download the free,

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Speaker 3: award winning Action Network app. It's the top rated app

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Speaker 3: for sports betters and it lets you track every bet

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Speaker 3: that you make and to speaking of the Action app,

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Speaker 3: if you want to reference our Sunday six Pack picks anytime.

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Speaker 3: Just use the apps follow feature and follow Sunday six

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Speaker 3: Pack where we log our top picks there every Friday

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Speaker 3: during the NFL season. All right, stuck, let's get to

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Speaker 3: it with Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night football. So this should be a

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Speaker 1: good matchup.

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Speaker 3: We got the Chiefs Chargers rematch from earlier in the

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Speaker 3: year in LA. Chiefs favored by a field goal. The

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Speaker 3: total is fifty two. It looks like Chris Jones is out.

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Speaker 3: Keenan Allen should be back.

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Speaker 2: Stuck.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of this long.

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Speaker 2: Massive playoffifacations, especially in that division, because if you were

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Speaker 2: called the Chargers beat the Chiefs and in Arrowhead, I

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Speaker 2: don't know what I forget. We always forget what they

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Speaker 2: call it. Now, Buddy walked by these stadiums, they're all

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Speaker 2: they buy these rights, and no one ever says their name.

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Speaker 2: He just called it by the old I was at

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Speaker 2: Cleveland Brown State. If I just was staring at the thing,

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Speaker 2: I forget the name already. Whatever it's called anyway, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: the the Chargers won on the road at Arrawhead earlier

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Speaker 2: this year. The Chiefs defense, We've been talking about it

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Speaker 2: for weeks. They made some stematic changes slightly they you know,

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Speaker 2: Specknoel was always trying to figure out, Okay, what can

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Speaker 2: what is working with this defense, And you know, towards

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Speaker 2: the end of the year most years, he really figures

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Speaker 2: out what's working, what's not. But you know, they added

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Speaker 2: and ingram, They put Chris Jones back in the middle.

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Speaker 2: You know, you get Willy Gay back, you start using

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Speaker 2: less sorens and and you know, you get your corners healthy.

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Speaker 2: A lot of new pieces and some changes that really

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Speaker 2: started to pay dividends.

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Speaker 3: And I just wanted to mention Willie Gay also on

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Speaker 3: the Willy Gay also out to make Jerious Need who's there,

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Speaker 3: you know, key defensive back.

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Speaker 1: So I just wanted to put that out there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so their defense has been playing a lot better.

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Speaker 2: Butt's fight it six weeks, but it's gonna be underman now.

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Speaker 2: You you know, at linebacker. Now you're a little shorthanded,

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Speaker 2: and Chris Jones just makes such a massive difference in

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Speaker 2: the middle. He was just not existent on the outside.

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Speaker 2: It was just awful for the defense. And now he's

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Speaker 2: not even gonna be out there at all. On the

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Speaker 2: other side, so I can see the Chargers moving the ball.

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Speaker 2: The one concern I have for the Chargers it looks

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Speaker 2: like Eckler is going to go. Brandon Staley came out

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Speaker 2: and said, yeah, we're gonna make sure that he's okay

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Speaker 2: to go. But I believe. And again, so always so

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Speaker 2: difficult trying to figure out who's out and who's in

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Speaker 2: because you can get two negative tests. Generally speaking, when

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Speaker 2: you like test positive that week, you're out. But TJ.

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Speaker 2: Watt played the other week. So but Slater, who's been

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Speaker 2: excellent at left tackle, looks like he's going to be out,

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Speaker 2: and that's big because he's been great. And then the

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Speaker 2: drop off from him to Trey Pipkins's massive Trey Pipkins

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Speaker 2: is one of the worst tackles in the NFL. Ken

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Speaker 2: Melvin ingram Uh the ex Charger take advantage. That is

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Speaker 2: a question that needs to be asked. And on the

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Speaker 2: other side, when the Chiefs have the ball, the Chargers

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Speaker 2: defense hasn't been anything great this year, but they have

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Speaker 2: dealt with some injuries and fortunately for them, a Santy

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Speaker 2: Samuel who's been their best cover corner. Another excellent rookie

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Speaker 2: and Derwin James practiced today, so it looks like they're

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Speaker 2: trending in the right direction. Not confirmed yet, but that

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Speaker 2: would be huge. And I still have questions about this

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Speaker 2: Chiefs offense. Over the past ten weeks Patrick mahomes two

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Speaker 2: games versus the Raiders, seven touchdowns, no picks, nine yards

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Speaker 2: per attempt, seventy four point three completion percentage and the

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Speaker 2: seven other games six touchdowns, eight picks, six point one

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Speaker 2: yards per attempt, fifty nine point nine percent completion That

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Speaker 2: that's that's troublesome. So I mean, obviously that the Raiders defense,

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Speaker 2: that Chiefs offense goes out there and just hums, but

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Speaker 2: you've seen them and against different types of defenses too.

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Speaker 2: I know these two deep shells taken away, they're big plays,

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Speaker 2: and I know they've had some He's had some drops

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Speaker 2: that they dealt with that the offense has just looked

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Speaker 2: off against everybody else but the Raiders. So depending on

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Speaker 2: who ends up being in or out for the Chargers,

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Speaker 2: like you know, if Slater was in, that would be big,

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Speaker 2: but if especially if James and Samuel can play, I

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Speaker 2: think that's really important for their secondary. I would you know,

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Speaker 2: I think this line is about right, but I would

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Speaker 2: lean Chargers here, and if you're looking to get in

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Speaker 2: on action in this game, it reminds me of the

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Speaker 2: Steelers Vikings. Now I ended up getting lucky on this recommendation,

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Speaker 2: but I think that the Chargers would be a decent

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Speaker 2: teas piece from three up because I do think the

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Speaker 2: Chargers the Chiefs defensive injuries are key here. I know

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Speaker 2: that defense has been playing that you play a lot better,

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Speaker 2: and the offense I still have questions about it against

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Speaker 2: everyone else about the Raiders. So I think this will

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Speaker 2: be a really close game. I think the Chargers are

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Speaker 2: a good teaser piece to get up over a possession.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, to your point on the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: Looking at their three games before they played the Raiders

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Speaker 3: the first time, which was in Week ten, they scored

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Speaker 3: thirty six points combined in three games. They score more

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Speaker 3: against the Raiders alone forty one. Then they played two

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Speaker 3: more games Cowboys Broncos. They win both of those games,

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Speaker 3: but they score forty one points combined and then score

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Speaker 3: forty eight against the Raiders. So it's like they're essentially

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Speaker 3: scoring more points against the Raiders and they can manage

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Speaker 3: in two or three games against everyone else these days,

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Speaker 3: so you worry about the Chiefs against a more confident offense,

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Speaker 3: especially not at full strength on defense. So yeah, I

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Speaker 3: do agree with that teaser recommendation. I wouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 3: if the Chargers went out right, but they have some

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Speaker 3: issues on their own.

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Speaker 1: As you mentioned that.

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Speaker 3: You know, Slater being out as big, so Aquar looks

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Speaker 3: like he's gonna go keenan awen being back is huge

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Speaker 3: for that offense because I still, you know, against a

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Speaker 3: team that's not the Giants, I still worry about the

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Speaker 3: Chargers moving the ball consistently up and down the fields.

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Speaker 3: You know, they're very good on third down, but that's

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Speaker 3: harder to sustain over a full season. So it's a

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Speaker 3: It's a decent spot here for the Chargers. Not really

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Speaker 3: any home field advantage for them. But and by the way,

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Speaker 3: it's g e h A is the field and narrowhead

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Speaker 3: in Kansas City. Now no one's calling it that as

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Speaker 3: you mentioned. But yeah, no home feel for the Chargers here,

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Speaker 3: but I think they keep it close and good.

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Speaker 2: Potentially, the Chris Drugs loss is massive, him creating pressure

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Speaker 2: up the middle. He doesn't have to get sacks. It's

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Speaker 2: just creating havoc up the middle and collapsing pockets and

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Speaker 2: then putting pressure on opponent opposing quarterbacks just makes life

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Speaker 2: so much miserable for opposing offenses, and we've seen that

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Speaker 2: effect since he moved back to the middle.

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Speaker 1: So that's our breakdown of the Chiefs and the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: So again, what we're gonna do is we're gonna release

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Speaker 3: a second bonus episode with a full six pack. On

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Speaker 3: this show, we'll give our top pick, our top spread pick.

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Speaker 3: Then we'll also give our top total and our top teaser,

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Speaker 3: our money line dog and all that good stuff, and

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Speaker 3: then we'll just kind of every other game will be

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Speaker 3: essentially a best of the rest, and we'll just kind

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Speaker 3: of give our initial thoughts. But it seems kind of

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Speaker 3: fruitless to give out recommendations and put money down this

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Speaker 3: early in the week, given we still have two more

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Speaker 3: whole days of practice and potential three more days of

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Speaker 3: COVID tests because they test up until Saturday. So we're

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Speaker 3: just trying to give you the most confident recommendations with

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Speaker 3: the most amount of information as possible.

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Speaker 2: So with that, most importantly, I wouldn't I would not

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Speaker 2: come on here and recommend you know any picks in

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Speaker 2: the Sunday six pack that I didn't put down money

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Speaker 2: on myself. So I have one game that I bet

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Speaker 2: money on. I have a teaser that I put money

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Speaker 2: on in a total. So yeah, I don't have a

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Speaker 2: couple other games because I'm waiting. I just don't feel

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Speaker 2: confident enough. And who's gonna play yet? That's why we're

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Speaker 2: gonna do. Uh the abbreviated fifteen to twenty minute final

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Speaker 2: six pack on Friday.

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Speaker 3: For you guys, forty four forty I'm up after the

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Speaker 3: four point swing. This essentially the difference the four point

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Speaker 3: swing in the in the Ravens in the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: Brownst in the wound.

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Speaker 3: You are up first though this week, so give us

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Speaker 3: your best pick as of as we record this on

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Speaker 3: Wednesday for the week fifteen Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick of the Sunday six pack, I'm

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Speaker 2: going with the Indianapolis Colts mint It's two and a

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Speaker 2: half against New England Patriots. Last time I got a

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Speaker 2: too and a half point favorite was the Browns last

387
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Speaker 2: week and I ended up walking out of state. I

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Speaker 2: left my friends and I went to watch it at

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Speaker 2: the at the end zone. I don't want to be

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Speaker 2: near anybody. And I was just watching in the tunnel

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Speaker 2: and we had a great seat through eleventh row behind

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Speaker 2: the riven side, and I just needed to watch by myself.

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Speaker 2: And then I just walked out and then just started walking.

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Speaker 2: And then I was like, so far from his apartment

395
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Speaker 2: in downtown Cleveland and had to walk all the way around.

396
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Speaker 2: There's people playing who let the dogs out all around me.

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Speaker 2: I'm like this, this is so bad, but I'm going

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Speaker 2: with any offs s cults. I really liked them in

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Speaker 2: this spot. Desperate team that I think is being still

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Speaker 2: a little disrespected of the market. I think this team

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Speaker 2: is in my opinion, I think that they're better than

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Speaker 2: the Patriots. The Patriots love has gone way too far.

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Speaker 2: I know the defense has been great, I know Mac

404
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,720
Speaker 2: Jones has been great, but look, I mean they've got

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Speaker 2: seven in a row and they've covered all seven games.

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Speaker 2: All right. They beat the Jets, guy, the Chargers pretty

407
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Speaker 2: could win at the Chargers. They beat them twenty seven

408
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Speaker 2: to twenty four. Give them that. Think they're out gained

409
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Speaker 2: in that game and average like a yard and a

410
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Speaker 2: half less per play, but we'll give them that good win.

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Speaker 2: Then they beat Sam Donald seeing Ghosts. They beat the

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Speaker 2: Browns without with a Baker Mayfield, without all of their backs.

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Speaker 2: You know, they beat the Falcons, you know, on a

414
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Speaker 2: short week without Calvin Ridley and they just a bad falconsy.

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Speaker 2: They beat the Titans without their entire team, no AJ Brown,

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Speaker 2: no Leo Jones, no Direck Henry. I mean, by the way,

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Speaker 2: I think they the Titans still had two hundred yard

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Speaker 2: rushers in that game. And then they play their bills

419
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Speaker 2: in a wind storm and Buffalo can't you know, score

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Speaker 2: in the final two possessions in the red zone. But

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Speaker 2: obviously Buffalo didn't have a great game plan, but those

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00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 2: conditions favored New England and how it played out, but

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Speaker 2: you could basically throw out that game. It means nothing.

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Speaker 2: So like who have they beat over these seven games?

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Speaker 2: And some of their metrics I think are being overinflated

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Speaker 2: because of some of these injuries, like the Titans. Like

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Speaker 2: look at the Colts. The Colts played the Titans twice

428
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Speaker 2: pretty close to full strength. The you know, the New

429
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Speaker 2: England Patriots basically played the JV squad of the Titans.

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Speaker 2: The Browns had their like most of their offense out,

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Speaker 2: So I don't think that the metrics for this defense

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Speaker 2: are as good as they look on paper. I think

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Speaker 2: that Jonathan Taylor can take advantage. I think this offensive

434
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Speaker 2: line can control the line of scrimmage on the other

435
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Speaker 2: side of the ball. I think the Colts, who are

436
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 2: extremely healthy now their defense. The run defense metrics don't

437
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 2: look as good as they have in years past, but this,

438
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 2: I think is the top five run defense against running backs.

439
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:28,239
Speaker 2: They've struggled a bit against running quarterbacks, and you know

440
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: when you're when you're running with wide receivers and some

441
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,119
Speaker 2: other non standard runs. But they've been excellent against running

442
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 2: backs and in particular runs up the middle, which is

443
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 2: where New England likes to live. So and by the way,

444
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor's averaging five point six yards per carry with

445
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 2: over two hundred and forty carries on the ear there

446
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 2: have been five backs in the history of NFL who

447
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: have done that. See if you can get the fifth

448
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 2: Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, oj Simpson, Adrian Peterson, and the

449
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 2: fifth is a former no longer active Tennessee Titan, Chris Johnson.

450
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: You got it.

451
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 3: I wanted to say, George, but I was like, wait,

452
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 3: that doesn't seem like an Eddie George Steifer.

453
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 2: You know you're gonna get a desperate Colts team. These

454
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 2: teams are actually pretty similar on paper when you look

455
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 2: at them, like how they're constructed, what they want to do.

456
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: But at this point, I trust Carson Wentz more than

457
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: Matt Jowns. I trust the New I trust the Indianapolis

458
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 2: run game more than the New England run game. And

459
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: I think this New England defense is just a bit overrated.

460
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 2: And by the way, there's there's some regression out there

461
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: looming for New England. They're number one in the NFL

462
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 2: and hidden points on special teams for those not familiar

463
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: with that, that's just things out of your control. That's the

464
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 2: Bills missing a thirty yard field goal, you know, which

465
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 2: essentially costs them the game. That's punts, bad punts, things

466
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 2: that you cannot control. They have twenty hidden points on

467
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 2: the air. The next most is Denver with eleven point eight.

468
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,199
Speaker 2: So New England been getting really lucky with some of

469
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 2: these hidden points, the injuries to opposing teams, turnovers. I

470
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 2: think this is a perfect spot for an Indianapolis team

471
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: that has been on the wrong side of a lot

472
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 2: of those. I think the Colts get this done on Saturday.

473
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,199
Speaker 2: Don't think it'll be easy, but I think they win

474
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 2: this game by at least a field goal.

475
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I don't think I'm there. I don't

476
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: think I'm there, Like, oh.

477
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 2: You're never there with the Colt.

478
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: I'm never there with the Coats man.

479
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 3: But listen, I got a lot of respect for a

480
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 3: lot of certain aspects on the coach. Like Jonathan Taylor.

481
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 3: I think he's I've said this on on our fantasy podcast.

482
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 3: I think he's a new Derek Henry like he you

483
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 3: just can't stop this guy. You can't stop him from

484
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 3: getting five yards a carry. I mean, he's great. I

485
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,919
Speaker 3: think Frank Reich is one of the better coaches in

486
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 3: the league. But there there's something with this Colt. There's

487
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 3: a few things with this coach team that worry. I mean,

488
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 3: Number one, they really don't get pressured. Uh you know

489
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 3: that's I think that's that's an issue because if you

490
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,479
Speaker 3: don't get pressure, yes, they're like they're decent is stopping

491
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 3: to run. But New England, off of Bye, I think

492
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 3: they're gonna be able to kind of scheme some things

493
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 3: up to kind of uh neutralize this coach defense with

494
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 3: that extra week, and then it's just like Frank Reich

495
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 3: is kind of neutralized in general by Belichick. I mean,

496
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 3: when's the last time the coach beat the Patriots regular

497
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 3: and postseason combined. The last time the coach beat the

498
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 3: Patriots was in November of twenty oh nine, So they

499
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 3: they've lost eight straight. They Reich has never beat them.

500
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 2: It just worries he beat Tom Brady.

501
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 1: I mean that's.

502
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 3: Fair, but it's like now when you look at Belichick

503
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: and this team, it's more like, maybe just don't have

504
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 3: Cam Newton and and they're all right.

505
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: I mean it's not that I don't think the coach win.

506
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 3: Don't win this game like maybe fifty the time, maybe

507
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 3: even like fifty of the time. But I can't get

508
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 3: to the two and a half. I make it a

509
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 3: lot closer to the pick them. So I'm actually hoping

510
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 3: the Lion gets to three. I would take the Patriots

511
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 3: at that spot. I just both of them coming off

512
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 3: of buye. The Patriots getting that must needed rest late

513
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 3: in a year. Yes, they haven't beat a lot of

514
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: impressive teams, but you know, look at them when they

515
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 3: played the Bucks was a two point loss. You know,

516
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 3: the Cowboys game could have gone either way. They lose

517
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 3: an overtime on that one. You know, there's they were

518
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 3: They've been competitive against pretty much every quality team. They

519
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 3: had that one hiccup against the Saints and that hiccup

520
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 3: against the Dolphins early in the year. They're also a

521
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 3: team that tends to get better as a season progresses,

522
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 3: Like they're kind of the the team version of the

523
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 3: Spagnolo defense. Like it just seems to me like they

524
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 3: get better and better. So, yeah, their metrics may be

525
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 3: a little bit overinflated because like, yeah, you're gonna get

526
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 3: the even for the schedule adjustments you're gonna get it's

527
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 3: gonna look better than it should be because you beat

528
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 3: Tennessee because Tennessee was good for a good part of

529
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 3: the year.

530
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 1: I get that.

531
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: But the Patriots are still also played Buffalo. You put

532
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 2: in a Buffalo team that wasn't to throw it in wins.

533
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: You played Tennessee without their whole team. You play Cleveland

534
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 2: with her Baker Mayfield and no Hunt or Chubb. I

535
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 2: mean it goes on and off. Yeah, you know, you

536
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 2: played Atlanta when they were they had injuries, so you know,

537
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 2: and then you've benefited for some weather, some special teams

538
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: points and I don't know, I think that this love.

539
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 2: Now everyone's saying that the Patriots are the second best

540
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. I don't say it, So we'll

541
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: find out on Saturday.

542
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and yeah, it's I mean, the sharps are on

543
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 3: a coach, so the sharps are on your side.

544
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 1: This line has been bet up. I can't like argue

545
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: with too much.

546
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 3: Again, it's just for me, there's just more it's just

547
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 3: closer to a pick up, that's all I'm trying to say.

548
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 3: Like it's it's I know, like when you like a

549
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 3: team one way or the other and it's under three,

550
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 3: you kind of just you got to kind of just

551
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 3: take that team more often than not. Most games are

552
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 3: gonna land on you know, field goal or more if

553
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 3: you're not the Browns. But yeah, that's that's just kind

554
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 3: of where I'm at with this one.

555
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 2: All right.

556
00:25:54,880 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 3: For my first pick of the week fifteen Sunday sick,

557
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 3: I am going with the Cincinnati Bengals plus two and

558
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 3: a half. And if you listen to this podcast every week,

559
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: this might be a little interesting for you because I

560
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 3: think I've bet against the Bengals three weeks in a row,

561
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 3: gone two and one over that span. But I think

562
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 3: this is a good matchup for the Bengals, and that's

563
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 3: because what are the Broncos like to do? They like

564
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 3: to play man coverage. Now they could do it decently well.

565
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 3: I think their defense has overperformed a little bit this year.

566
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: They are second in points allowed at seventeen and a

567
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 3: half per game, but they are still twenty first in DVOA,

568
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 3: so they're below average a DVOA the second points per game.

569
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 3: The schedule, you know, they face the Lions and you

570
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 3: know some matchups that just don't really strike fear into you,

571
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 3: the Giants, Jets, So they've had some of those kind

572
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 3: of matchups. But the thing is they play the most

573
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 3: man coverage in the league. They're really the only defense

574
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 3: under Vic Fangio that plays man coverage at raider than

575
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 3: a fifty percent rate. That is extremely rare in today's NFL.

576
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 3: You just don't you just don't see it. And it

577
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 3: just so happens that this Bengals team destroys man coverage.

578
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 1: I mean they just destroy it.

579
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 3: They're averaging over eleven yards in attempt versus man coverage

580
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 3: they're in the mid you know, eights against zone. So

581
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 3: Jamar Chase T Higgins, they have the weapons here. And

582
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 3: that's what I always say, you know, the Bengal To

583
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 3: beat the Bengals, I think you need to score on them.

584
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 3: And I think the Bengals have the better offense in

585
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 3: this game. I think the Bengals have the better quarterback

586
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 3: in this game. Even with Burrow his finger banged up.

587
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 3: You know, he actually surprised me and I ended up getting lucky,

588
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 3: uh and winning that bet on on San Francisco. But

589
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 3: it wasn't easy. And I mean they missed the field goal.

590
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 3: Then Bengals score first. They kind of just bad. Oh yeah,

591
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 3: two punt. So really, if I'm looking at that game,

592
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 3: it's like I'm just kind of chalking that one up

593
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 3: is you know, I'm not really looking at that is

594
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 3: like a win, you know, just process wise, because the

595
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 3: Bengals mf two punts created a ten point swing. Joe

596
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 3: Burrow made some amazing plays, Jamar Chase made some amazing plays.

597
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: You know, the defense just kind of ran out of gas.

598
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 3: But also this has been an issue with the Bengals,

599
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 3: and I'm betting that it turns around because It's been

600
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 3: such a talking point and Zach Taylor has been honest

601
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 3: about it.

602
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 1: But the play come was just problematic.

603
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 3: I mean, are you're getting overtime, you get down to

604
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 3: like the twenty five, and you just like run run sack,

605
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: you know, like on first second after after Burrow goes

606
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 3: nuts to bring you back in the fourth quarter despite

607
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 3: all your other mistakes. And Taylor remitted it. He said, hey, man,

608
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 3: I got too conservative. I you know, if I went back,

609
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: I would have done it differently. He took a lot

610
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 3: of responsibility for it, which he was very honest, Like

611
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 3: you don't you don't see that as much in this

612
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 3: day and age. Usually maybe you see the cookie cutter

613
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 3: thing if it gets out of control. But he kind

614
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: of ate it and like almost like he was like

615
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 3: hooked up to a lot of detective tests. So I

616
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 3: think you're gonna see some more aggressiveness this week, and

617
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,959
Speaker 3: that's exactly what you need because the offense has all

618
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 3: the talent. You know, the line is a little bit shaky,

619
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 3: but Denver's not getting a ton of pressure. Uh, you know,

620
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 3: they do have Bradley Chubb back, but von Miller obviously,

621
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 3: and then I think the you know, the Bengals, their

622
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 3: offense is gonna take what you give them to an extent.

623
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 3: And I think the Broncos they're gonna play that two

624
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 3: deep show, they play man under it, but they're gonna

625
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 3: still give you some of those running plays, and I

626
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 3: think they'll be able to run a little better, uh

627
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 3: in this game and then against San Francisco, because that

628
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 3: was really another issue is that you know they were

629
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 3: they were making the correct reads according to the you

630
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: know the boxes, like all right, it's a light box.

631
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 3: I think San Francisco played six in the box, which

632
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 3: is a light box, on all but one snap of

633
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 3: the game. And so since he runs it a ton, sure, fine.

634
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 3: The problem is San Francisco coming into that game was

635
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: the number two run defense in the league in terms

636
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 3: of DVOA. So now you got Denver, you're twenty fifth.

637
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 3: So Denver likes to play the two safeties deep. They'll

638
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 3: switch it up from time to time, but you're gonna

639
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 3: get some You're gonna get an easier team to run on.

640
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 3: So I just think the offense is gonna be humming

641
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 3: in on the other side. Listen, I think Denver's an

642
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 3: average offense, and I think Cincinnati is an average defense.

643
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 3: You know, their twelfth in Dvoa Wilson will probably be out,

644
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: a Woogia should be in. Wayne's probably comes back. Also,

645
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 3: I think Cincinnati special teams will be improved. They're not

646
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 3: going to put votes back there. Again, if Waynes is active,

647
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 3: they'll probably deactivate Phillips, probably use Trenton Irwin a wide

648
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 3: receiver who they deactivate. A ton they might bring up,

649
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 3: or they might use Tyber Boyd in that role if

650
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 3: they have a roster crunt. So either way, I don't

651
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: expect the same special teams error. So I just think

652
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 3: these are two pretty evenly matched teams. But I think

653
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 3: Cincinnati is a little better, better quarterback, and just the

654
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 3: matchup schematically on offense. You know, I bet against Cincinnati

655
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 3: when I think teams can outscore them, I don't think

656
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 3: Denver can outscore them. You know, Denver's had some decent games,

657
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 3: but let's I mean, they put up nine against the

658
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 3: Chiefs on offense. They put up the big number against

659
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: the Lions, but at that thirty to thirteen game against

660
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 3: Philly also stands out. That was in Mile High a

661
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 3: winnable game for Denver. They didn't get it done there.

662
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 3: And I know everybody's gonna say Teddy covers, Teddy Bridgewater covers,

663
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: and yes, he does cover the spread at a very

664
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 3: good rate, but that's mostly a road thing. At home

665
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: it has been kind of closer to five hundred on

666
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 3: the road. He's twenty four and six against the spread

667
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 3: in his career at home eighteen and fourteen against the spread.

668
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 3: So I don't really feared Teddy covers of this, you know,

669
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: majestic like it's you know, it's just a product of

670
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 3: him having some good defenses and the market not really

671
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 3: believe in him. They go on a road, you get

672
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 3: that inflated home field advantage. But here, yeah, I think

673
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 3: Mile has a tough place to play, but I think

674
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 3: Cincinnati has the weapons to go in there and get

675
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 3: it done. So I'll take them at plus two and

676
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:39,719
Speaker 3: a half and we might get a three. We might

677
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,719
Speaker 3: get a three. So that's why you haven't seen it

678
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 3: come across in the app. It was sitting around one

679
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 3: one and a half early in the week. It's up

680
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 3: to two and a half. If the money keeps coming

681
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 3: in on Denver, we may get a three. So that's

682
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 3: why I'm holding out. But Cincinnati plus two and a

683
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 3: half at the Broncos.

684
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind it. I do prefer to tease

685
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 2: them at this number. Up to eight and a half,

686
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 2: you're gonna need mix and some here, so it'll be

687
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 2: interesting how the play calling goes. Try to because I

688
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 2: think you can have success running on Denver. They're gonna

689
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 2: get Callahan back as well, certain as the second best.

690
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: He has the second best passer rating aloud on man

691
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 2: coverage this year out of any cornerback. It's been outstanding.

692
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 2: So I can't wait to watch that matchup of their

693
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: secondary versus the receivers on the other end, Burrows Pinky

694
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 2: looked healthy enough last week. He didn't practice to that.

695
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 2: I think that was more just precautionary. I do also

696
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: want to see can Denver really exploit the middle of

697
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 2: the field for Cincinna is a troubling area. Now this

698
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: isn't you know Baltimore and Mark Andrews or stand Friend

699
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: and Kittle. But you know when they lost Logan Wilson

700
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: already lost Gaither. I mean they are in that they've

701
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: run mainly you know, four two five, they're linebackers now

702
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 2: not great and coverage and they're lacking and blitz prowess

703
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 2: and they just really struggle to cover in the middle

704
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: of the field. Something to watch there as well. I

705
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 2: don't mind it though, but I do prefer the.

706
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: Tease the recap.

707
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 3: Stucky's going with the Colts minus two and a half

708
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,239
Speaker 3: against the Patriots. I'm going with the Bengals plus two

709
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 3: and a half against the Broncos. Will have our entire

710
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack any bonus episode that is dropping Friday

711
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 3: before we get into our favorite Toto. Actually, let's go

712
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 3: to our coaches pep talk.

713
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 2: You keep playing the way you're playing, we're gonna get

714
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 2: a half feed again to nine.

715
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 3: This week's coaches pep Talk comes from the nineteen fifty

716
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 3: five film Mister Roberts, and we're dedicating it to Urban Meyers.

717
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: What do you really think of me?

718
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 4: Honestly, well, I think you're the most hapless, lazy, disorganized,

719
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 4: and in general the most lecturous person I've ever known

720
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 4: in my life. The day you finished one thing you

721
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 4: started out to do, that's today. I'll have some respect

722
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 4: for you. That's today. I'll look up to you as

723
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 4: a man. Okay, okay, And I mean I.

724
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 1: Know Stuck that.

725
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 3: Every week we have our coaches pep talk, and it's

726
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 3: equipped from a movie that our guy Matt Mitchell picks

727
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 3: out and we dedicate to someone. You know, since we're

728
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 3: doing two episodes, I gotta give a second coaches pep talk.

729
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: Hey, Urban Meyer, stop kicking motherfuckers.

730
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 2: That's my coach's pep talk, you head ball coach. I

731
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 2: can kick who I want.

732
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like, Yo, man, I've been saying this shit all

733
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 3: off season, like something's off with this dude.

734
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: I don't believe in him.

735
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 3: I could see this ending poorly and it really should

736
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 3: have ended already. And I'm not even trying to make

737
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 3: light of this, like this is a serious accusation, like

738
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 3: that's assault.

739
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: It's not a light accusation. So this is, you know, alleged.

740
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 3: It's obviously alleged, but it's not pretty for Urban Man,

741
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if he's making it. I don't

742
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 3: know if he's making it to next year, nor do

743
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 3: I think he should. But I digress. Let's get into

744
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 3: our favorite total of Week fifteen. You started the six

745
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,240
Speaker 3: pack stuck. I'll go lead us off here with the total.

746
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 3: I am going with the Buffalo Bills Carolina Panthers under

747
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 3: forty four and a half at bet MGM. And this

748
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: is a play on the defenses in this game, two defenses.

749
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 1: That I think are among the better units in the league.

750
00:34:56,480 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 3: Buffalo still ranks number one in defensive and Caroline is tenth,

751
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 3: so two top ten defenses. I think Caroline is a

752
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 3: little better than that. Their offense has been putting them

753
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 3: in some tough spots. But then on the other side,

754
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 3: you got Carolina whose offense is thirtieth in DVOA. Buffalo's

755
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 3: down to fourteenth, and I know, you know, they had

756
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: the wind game, so you throw that out, so they're

757
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 3: probably a little higher. But Buffalo's another one of these

758
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 3: teams that it's kind of looked off like it's hasn't

759
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 3: been as noticeable as the Chiefs, maybe because Buffalo is

760
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 3: not quite as popular yet.

761
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:31,720
Speaker 1: As the Chiefs.

762
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 3: But I mean, Josh Allen's back under seven yards in attempt,

763
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 3: just the way he was, you know, first year or

764
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 3: two in the league, when you know, people weren't sure

765
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 3: if he was going to be that franchise quarterback for Buffalo.

766
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 1: You know, now they're one of their receivers.

767
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 3: Emmanuel Sanders is hurt so and Josh Allen's banged up,

768
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 3: so that takes some of his rushing ability away, which

769
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 3: has been the saving great So you know, Josh Allen

770
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 3: sitting back here in the pocket more and throwing more

771
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 3: that with no Emmanuel Sanders averaging under seven yards per

772
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 3: an attempt, this is another game where Buffalo's offense underwhelmed.

773
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 3: So you have two top ten defenses, a bottom three

774
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 3: offense in Carolina, and then the only unit really that

775
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 3: could contribute to the scoring that we perceive as like

776
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 3: a really good unit is you know, on paper now

777
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 3: middle of the road and dealing with injuries. So a

778
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: lot of different avenues to point to this game going

779
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 3: under the total. And I think Buffalo, you know, last

780
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 3: week against Tampa Bay, they did score some points, they

781
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 3: didn't run the ball like at all, Like they just

782
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 3: didn't bother And that's honestly probably the correct strategy against

783
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay.

784
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: But Buffalo has been in this funk.

785
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 3: It's clear that Sean McDermott is not comfortable with this

786
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 3: team's physicality.

787
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: He's not comfortable with the lack of the running game.

788
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 3: Now I give him props for not, you know, insisting

789
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: that they run the ball against the stone wall that

790
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 3: is Tampa Bay's defense. But I think they're going to

791
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 3: try to run in a little more here. And Carolina,

792
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 3: we know they wuldn't run the ball. They really got

793
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: no choice even without Christian McCaffrey. They they quarterback situations

794
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 3: in shambles. I mean, you got three just horrible passers

795
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 3: of the football on that roster with Darnold potentially coming back.

796
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 3: So I think Carolina they're gonna try to fulfill that

797
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 3: goal of running thirty three to thirty nine times. They

798
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 3: have two tight ends and Tremble and Thomas, so they

799
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 3: can maybe they think they can replicate, and they have

800
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 3: a fullback in Giovanni Ricci, so maybe they feel like

801
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 3: they can replicate what the Patriots did. You know, just

802
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 3: get numbers, go big, go heavy, try to run the

803
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 3: ball on this Bill's defense. So yeah, I just see

804
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 3: two good defenses, one really shaky offense and another one

805
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 3: that might be shaky given the injuries. And it's going

806
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 3: through kind of an identity crisis here. So give me

807
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 3: the under forty four and a half Bill's Panthers.

808
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind. I mean, Josh Allen, there was

809
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 2: a good report on him. He said he's starting to

810
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 2: feel better. But I don't know how. I doubt they

811
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 2: try to run. And they have the Patriots next week. Yeah,

812
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 2: keep that in mind, and that's an enormous game for

813
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 2: the playoffs and the division depending on what Patriots do

814
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 2: this week. But I'm kind of confused. Yeah, I mean,

815
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,720
Speaker 2: if I have to come out and play the way

816
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: that I think they have said, then yeah, I love

817
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 2: this under So I don't think the Bills want to

818
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 2: risk down. He might not even play. It might be

819
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 2: Mitch Mitch Bortles.

820
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 3: That would be amazing, and then then we'd lose this

821
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 3: like I would. We would, I would absolutely lose this

822
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,879
Speaker 3: on like a Mitch Bordo's like three hundred yard four

823
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 3: touchdown game.

824
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: You've just been bortled.

825
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 3: So I'm hoping that yeah, well yeah, David, so that

826
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 3: they don't want to do anything the risk Allen, So,

827
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 3: I mean, they just want to get a lead, get

828
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 3: out of this game with a win.

829
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 2: But the Panthers really confused mebou It's like I had

830
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 2: the first half under They run the ball only fourteen

831
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: out of twenty nine plays in the first half. That

832
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 2: includes US seven to seven third and six U seventy

833
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 2: yard pick six, which crushed our first half under and

834
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: our Panthers bet and letting Cam Newton throw it around.

835
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 2: I don't know what they were doing that were the wrong.

836
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 2: Part of that handicapp is the Panthers somehow got no pressure,

837
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 2: which is a big concerning But yeah, I mean I

838
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 2: do think that. Look after what Matt Rule said, he

839
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 2: came out, he said, can Newton can't keep turning the

840
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 2: ball over like this? And after what he saw the

841
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: Patriots do to the Bills, I would assume that they

842
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 2: come out and just run the ball here all day long.

843
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 2: So I don't hate it. By the way, something to

844
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 2: mention with the Bills, they've been running by They're oh

845
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 2: in five to one possession games. I stall them to

846
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 2: the second best team in the NFL. They are oh

847
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 2: and five to one possession games. They've had horrible, horrible

848
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 2: penalty luck, ep just wrong horribly time pack. I mean,

849
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 2: look at last week by the way the Bills lose

850
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 2: on Tom Brady getting calls again. Yeah, I mean, just

851
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 2: an absolute joke of a non call on one of

852
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 2: your star receivers getting tackled by his jersey on the

853
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 2: gate that would have won the game for them, and

854
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 2: then in overtime you call Mike Evans, you called passive

855
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 2: fens with Mike Evans is grabbing the corner. But they've

856
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 2: had that happen all year long. If you look at

857
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 2: EPA for penalty, how about this for and this is

858
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 2: a downfield passing attack with very talented receivers. The Bills

859
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: defense leads the NFL and defensive holding calls at fifteen,

860
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 2: that's six more than the next most team, Las Vegas

861
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 2: has nine. They have eight defensive pass interference calls, so

862
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 2: their twenty three coverage penalties are the most in the league.

863
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 2: How about this, So the Bills have coverage penalties called

864
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 2: in their favor when they're an offense once every fifty

865
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: one dropbacks, that's thirty one more than when it's called

866
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 2: against them. And on the other side of the ball,

867
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 2: it's in coverage once every ninety four dropbacks are applied.

868
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,879
Speaker 2: That's sixty five more than we're it's applied against them.

869
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 2: Maybe that doesn't make sense, Sive, but they're getting extremely

870
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 2: unlucky with pass interference and defensive holding calls, like thirty

871
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: to forty more snaps each way, and those are swinging games,

872
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 2: and those are even more important when you're playing when

873
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 2: you're all in five to one possession games. So I

874
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 2: do think that there's some regression coming for this Bill's offense.

875
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 2: But the Panthers D I think you can trust here,

876
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 2: and I don't know what Cam Newton's going to do.

877
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 2: You just have to hope he doesn't throw pick sixes.

878
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,080
Speaker 2: But for my favorite total of the week, I'm going

879
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 2: with the Saints Bucks under forty six and a half

880
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 2: at BENMGM. I well, right this game up to Sunday

881
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 2: night football game, so I won't go too deep here.

882
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 2: But this is the one defense that Brady struggles with.

883
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,359
Speaker 2: They seem to have a formula where they can they

884
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 2: find ways to get pressure, and they have the coverage

885
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: on the back end, and Brady has struggled in the

886
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 2: past dealing with the Saints defensive times. He's actually all

887
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 2: win three in the regular season against Saints with the

888
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 2: Bucks twenty one and five against every other team. Davenport

889
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 2: should be back. I expect Cam Jordan to be back

890
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 2: as well. And if you look at Brady, it's amazing

891
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 2: when he's doing at forty four and forty four. Every

892
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 2: time I think about it, I'm like, this is crazy.

893
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 2: He leads the league in passing, touchdowns and yards. He's

894
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 2: benefited from four hundred and sixty five clean pockets. That's

895
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 2: sixty five more than the next most. But when he's

896
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 2: under pressure, and his numbers are just elite when he's

897
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 2: in a clean pocket. When he's under pressure, his passing

898
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 2: grade drops to fifty nine, his completion percentage drops the

899
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,919
Speaker 2: forty six, and his yards per temp drops to five

900
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 2: point eight. That's twenty fourth in the NFL. So I

901
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 2: think that the Saints again can scheme up some pressure here.

902
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 2: They have the coverage on the back end to deal

903
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: with these Bucks receivers, and on the other side of

904
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 2: the ball it's Taysom Hill and you know we're trying

905
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 2: to run the ball. They have no passing game to

906
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 2: speak of. I just can't see the Saints doing much

907
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 2: through the air or on offense in general. They're probably

908
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 2: gonna play really slow. I know that Tampa plays on

909
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 2: the faster side, but if they get a big lead,

910
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 2: they'll sit on it as well. So I like this

911
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 2: under in prome type and we'll have more on the

912
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 2: Action networkapinactionwork dot Com when I write this up.

913
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that.

914
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 3: I mean, the only thing that worries you is that

915
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 3: both of these teams stop to run so well. But

916
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 3: just like you said, the Saints have to run the

917
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 3: ball like there there's no way they can throw the

918
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 3: ball forty times with Taysom Hill against what's turning in.

919
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 3: You know, they're getting a little healthier on you know,

920
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 3: just Tampa Bay pass defense too, But there's no way

921
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 3: you can throw the ball forty times with Taysom to

922
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 3: like Marcus Cowaway and tray Quan Smith. And it looks like,

923
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 3: you know, low Jordan Humphrey. They were trying to give

924
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 3: him a bigger role. They cut Kenny Stills, they cut

925
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,439
Speaker 3: Kevin White. Humphrey was going to be I think kind

926
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 3: of their number one receiver down the stretch, and then

927
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 3: he gets hurt, you know, late in the week last week,

928
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:18,760
Speaker 3: and he still hasn't practiced since, so they're down another

929
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 3: weapon that it might not sound like a lot, but

930
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 3: when you're talking about because Deontay Harris, who in terms

931
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 3: of yard perroute.

932
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: Run, he was their best receiver.

933
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 3: You know, he would only play about fifty percent of

934
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 3: the snash, but you know he would get three, four,

935
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 3: five six catches a game most games he's.

936
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 1: Out, so now you're you're really graspsman at Straws.

937
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't I see this game where at

938
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 3: least one, if not both, of the offenses probably underperforms

939
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 3: their implied point total.

940
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: So I like that one. All right, let's close it

941
00:43:48,680 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 1: out here with a favorite teaser. Oh yeah, six point teasers.

942
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 2: Don't tease me to please?

943
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 3: All right, Steph, what are you doing for your teaser

944
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: for week fifteen?

945
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 2: All right, let's go with an all Pennsylvania teaser and

946
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 2: tease the Steelers up over a touchdown against the Titans.

947
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 2: So no Aj Brown, still, no Derrick Henry. I still

948
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 2: think this Titan's offense is very limited and lot in

949
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: high Smiths are trending, right. I think they have a

950
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 2: good shot to play Hayden still isn't. They're also getting

951
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 2: some depth back on the defensive line. Tomlin dog trends.

952
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 2: We talked about him a million times, they don't have

953
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 2: to mention them again. But against a team with a

954
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 2: better record than him, he's just dominant. And this is

955
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 2: a typical raw Rod spot for the Steelers.

956
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 1: What a raw ron Mike Tomlin spot.

957
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 4: We win the game with just prove bodies right here today,

958
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 4: bring you only game today.

959
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 2: With a couple extra days to repair and rest. This

960
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 2: game is basically their season. I think they can keep

961
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 2: this within one possession and then the Eagles tease them

962
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 2: down to one half a point Washington just as crush

963
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 2: by COVID. You know, their defensive line is I decimated.

964
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 2: I don't know who's left of their defensive line. Their

965
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 2: you know Kyle Fuller, their their their quarterback is out

966
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 2: as well. You know the oslogan Thomas McLaurin as a concussion.

967
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: Their backup quarterbacks in COVID. So if you know, if

968
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,359
Speaker 2: Heinike who's been dealing with a knee injury, to get

969
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 2: an MRI, if he can't go or gets hurt, you're

970
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 2: talking about Shermer coming in that quarterback. This team is

971
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 2: just devastated by injuries. Eagles, coming off of a buye

972
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 2: here should get this win. I think their offensive line

973
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 2: is going to dominate this game. And uh yeah, so

974
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 2: give me the all Pennsylvania teaser going through the three

975
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 2: and seven on both sides.

976
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting.

977
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 3: I you know, didn't think the Eagles would get to

978
00:45:58,000 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 3: seven this early in a week, but here we are

979
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 3: after the COVID news.

980
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't hate that at all.

981
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 3: I'll talk Pittsburgh in a bit, but for my teaser,

982
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Bengals plus two and a half

983
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 3: to eight and a half and the Patriots plus two

984
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:12,399
Speaker 3: and a half to eight and a half.

985
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 1: So kind of the two picks we talked about earlier.

986
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 3: With Cincinnati, it's you know, they've been playing better on

987
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:21,439
Speaker 3: the road this year. It's not the same old team

988
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: that just automatic loss when they go on the road.

989
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 3: They're actually four and two on the road in this one.

990
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 3: The Bengals are seven and six on a year, and

991
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 3: three of their losses have come by a field goal.

992
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 1: So this Bengals team would.

993
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,919
Speaker 3: Have covered a tease up to eight and a half

994
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 3: in ten of their thirteen games that they played this year.

995
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 3: So they are inconsistent team, but more often than not,

996
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:48,799
Speaker 3: most of the time, they're still keeping it within a possession,

997
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:52,399
Speaker 3: you know, if not winning out right. So this Bengals team,

998
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:56,280
Speaker 3: I like them in the spot. I like the matchup. Again,

999
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,720
Speaker 3: I just think Denver scheme doesn't match up as well

1000
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 3: with the Bengals as a lot of other teams in

1001
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 3: the NFL. So expected to be a close game, I

1002
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 3: expect Cincinnati, whether it's Joe Burrow and Chase just getting

1003
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 3: the back door cover might get some single coverage against

1004
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:14,839
Speaker 3: a good corner, So trust that they at least get

1005
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 3: in the back door to cover the eight and a half.

1006
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: And then so this Patriots seems nine and four, you know,

1007
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 3: I know, so you know, I know, you think the

1008
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 3: coach win the game.

1009
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 1: The coach are a little underrated.

1010
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 3: The Colts are a very good team too, But Patriots

1011
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 3: still nine and four coming off a bye. I don't

1012
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 3: expect this game to get away from them either, especially

1013
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:35,760
Speaker 3: because the coachs don't really get a ton of pressure

1014
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 3: on defense. So I think if the Patriots need to,

1015
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 3: you know, go with their passing game a little more,

1016
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 3: which I actually do expect, you know, coming off of

1017
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 3: buy through it three times, didn't really show anything in

1018
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 3: the last game, so you really haven't shown your.

1019
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 1: Passing game for weeks now.

1020
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 3: I do expect them to be a little bit more

1021
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 3: pass heavy and come out with some wrinkles against Indianapolis.

1022
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: But they're nine and four, all right.

1023
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:58,279
Speaker 3: One of the losses was an opening day to the

1024
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,879
Speaker 3: Dolphins by a point, mumbled away the game winning drive.

1025
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,919
Speaker 3: The second one of The third loss of the year

1026
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 3: was to the Bucks that was by two, and then

1027
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 3: they had another loss to the Cowboys, and that was

1028
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 3: an overtime that could have gone either way it ended

1029
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 3: up being by six.

1030
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: So they have one loss all year.

1031
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 3: That was to the New Orleans Saints, who I think

1032
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 3: got a pick six in that game, and they lost

1033
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 3: twenty eight thirteen. So the Patriots would have covered an

1034
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 3: eight point ts eight and a half point t's in

1035
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 3: twelve at their thirteen. So the Bengals would have covered

1036
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 3: in ten. Patriots would have covered in twelve. That's why

1037
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: I'm going with them here. I expect them to be

1038
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 3: highly competitive this week, even if they're outclassed. But if

1039
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 3: they do get to three, I will be taking some three.

1040
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 3: But right now I think it's a great teas piece

1041
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 3: at two and a half. Don't know if we're going

1042
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 3: to get to the three or not with the Patriots here.

1043
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 2: Amazing. I lost at that on the Patriots by US

1044
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: two and a half at home against the Dolphins earlier

1045
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 2: this year.

1046
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you just have the worst luck two and

1047
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 3: a half. It's just you know, it'll deadline would.

1048
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 2: Be so much higher now. Geeesh, let's move on to

1049
00:48:59,440 --> 00:48:59,800
Speaker 2: our money on.

1050
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do it now.

1051
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 3: It's time for our money line underdog parlay.

1052
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1053
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1054
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 1: Hi, stuph what are we doing this week?

1055
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,719
Speaker 2: This is a play a lot of the games. When

1056
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 2: we get to the best of the rest, we're gonna

1057
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 2: be like, I don't know, we have to wait till

1058
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 2: he was playing. So for money line dog, you can

1059
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 2: try to take advantage of that. I think that with

1060
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 2: the Packers and Ravens, look, I don't know how the

1061
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 2: Ravens are gonna get any stops with the Rogers started.

1062
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 2: They can't cover anyone. You saw that last week. Through

1063
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 2: the secondary, when you're just starting a former college running

1064
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 2: back at safety, give three of your starters out. Some

1065
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 2: of your backups are hurting. The secondary going against Rogers

1066
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,399
Speaker 2: isn't great. We don't know if Lamar Jackson is gonna

1067
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 2: play Patrick Riccard their full back. You know, I could

1068
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 2: go on and on Nick Boil their tight end. They

1069
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 2: have some injuries of receiver along the offensive line, but

1070
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 2: this is a classic Ravens spot. They just you know,

1071
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 2: they this is could be for their season. They're off

1072
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 2: of the loss, They're gonna probably come up some creative

1073
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 2: ways on the ground to score. And if I think

1074
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, I'm conflicted both ways. I'm like, I think

1075
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:09,360
Speaker 2: that knowing him, he's going to be out there, but

1076
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,879
Speaker 2: he probably won't be his mobile. And then also, if

1077
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 2: the Ravens don't really need this game, if you look

1078
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 2: at it, if you say we care more about Jackson

1079
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 2: being healthy, because then you have, you know, the Bengals

1080
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 2: next week. Win that game. You know, you lose that

1081
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 2: game and the Bengals swept you and you're in real trouble.

1082
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 2: Win that game and you're in pretty good shape, especially

1083
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 2: looking into the Steelers have the rest of every one

1084
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 2: of the Nsion North has really tough schedules. You close

1085
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 2: the year with the Steelers at home as well, so

1086
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 2: that Bengals game becomes huge. So do you want Lamar

1087
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 2: healthy for that? I don't know what the Ravens is

1088
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 2: going to do here, but this line will come down.

1089
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 2: If Lamar Jackson plays and then he ends up being healthy,

1090
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 2: it's a good Ravens spot. Yeah, I think that it's

1091
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 2: just a play on the variants of what's going on

1092
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 2: with the Ravens. I mean it could all work against

1093
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 2: you here. But that's that's why I want to take

1094
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 2: a smaller shot with the Ravens on money line, Dolphiece.

1095
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 2: I mean you could you also see Jyry, Alexander and

1096
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 2: BACTIORI play for Green Bay and then no one plays

1097
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 2: for the Ravens. But I trust Harball on the spot

1098
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 2: to come up with something and rally the troops in

1099
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:06,879
Speaker 2: front of the raucous home crowd. Plus two hundred at

1100
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 2: bet MGM other money, then it's Baltimore, gentlemen, The gods

1101
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 2: will not save you.

1102
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 3: I like that spicy plus two hundred. We don't usually

1103
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,919
Speaker 3: get up that high in our money line, Doug. So yeah,

1104
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, props to Aaron Rodgers, like he's great,

1105
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 3: and I just feel like their numbers are inflated every week,

1106
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 3: but they keep covering them.

1107
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: You know, they keep winning games they're not supposed to

1108
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:29,919
Speaker 1: win like that.

1109
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 3: What was it that Arizona game where they get you know,

1110
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 3: they get lucky at the end with Kyrid and aj

1111
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:38,239
Speaker 3: but you know it's at some point you figure the

1112
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 3: Packers are going to have a slip up, Like they're

1113
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:42,760
Speaker 3: not just gonna go like fourteen and whatever. Two against

1114
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 3: the fifteen and two against the spread and win all

1115
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 3: these games.

1116
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 1: So Ravens in you know.

1117
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 3: Just like we didn't expect them to come back from

1118
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:54,280
Speaker 3: a big deficit without Lamar last week at home. Maybe

1119
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 3: you get an egg from the Packers like you did

1120
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 3: in Week one against the Saints. They're on the road,

1121
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:01,439
Speaker 3: so it's not in Lambo, So yeah, I can't argue

1122
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 3: with that one. I got the Ravens jersey on, so

1123
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 3: hopefully we hit that and then I'm gonna go back

1124
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 3: to reliable here. Every time you think they're dead, they

1125
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 3: just like pop up like a zombie.

1126
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. All right, hit that horn, babe, Let's dance.

1127
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,359
Speaker 3: Like Mike Thomas spy right underdog. Now they're at home.

1128
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:22,760
Speaker 2: Everyone.

1129
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 1: They had a horrible, horrible game.

1130
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 3: They had no business losing that game by whatever it

1131
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 3: was at eight. They lost that that Thursday night game.

1132
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 3: By I mean, I made a joke on Twitter, like,

1133
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 3: you know, the the Vikings lost to the Lions, and

1134
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 3: then the Steelers get shut out by the Vikings.

1135
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 1: It's like the Steers are the worst team in the NFL.

1136
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 3: It's like I joke, but they at times they've looked

1137
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 3: like it because it's you know, but they do. What

1138
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 3: they do have is they still have you know, Deontay Johnson,

1139
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 3: they still have Najie Harris. You know, the line obviously

1140
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 3: isn't great. And on defense they still you know, they

1141
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 3: have the home crowd. They shouldn't, like you said, be

1142
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 3: getting back, so they still have some town on the

1143
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,839
Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball, even without Hayden. You look

1144
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 3: at this Titans team and even with Julio back, there's

1145
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 3: just not a lot there.

1146
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 1: On offense, I mean, your skill.

1147
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 3: Position players, Deontay Foreman is probably gonna lead the team

1148
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 3: in touches, Dontrell Hillier, Jeremy McNichols that running back. Your

1149
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 3: tight ends are ferks or swam through it. Your receivers

1150
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 3: a banged up Julio who never plays coast two hundred

1151
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,839
Speaker 3: percent of the snaps doesn't even usually get to eighty

1152
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:26,399
Speaker 3: percent anymore. Nick Westbrook Akina is your wide receiver too.

1153
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 3: Then you have like Chester Rogers and Cody Hollister if

1154
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 3: he gets called up again, and Racy McMath who's you know,

1155
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:35,319
Speaker 3: had doesn't even have one hundred snaps to his name

1156
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 3: in the NFL. I mean, this is an offense that

1157
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 3: on any given day could weigh an absolute egg. You know,

1158
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 3: when you're not playing the Jaguars, you know, Titans, could

1159
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 3: you know, Titans put up twenty and win and shut

1160
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 3: out to Jaguars, and it's like, okay, they got a

1161
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:51,839
Speaker 3: twenty point win. But these we saw the Titans put

1162
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 3: up thirteen against the Texans in Tennessee and lose by nine.

1163
00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:00,720
Speaker 1: So you know, the Steelers are the Steelers world beaters?

1164
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 3: Know?

1165
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 1: Are they a flowid team? Absolutely?

1166
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 3: But the Steelers average twenty point nine points per game.

1167
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 3: You know you can count on the Steelers will probably

1168
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 3: give you twenty to twenty three points. The Titans offense

1169
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 3: thirteen against Houston, thirteen against New England, twenty against Jacksonville.

1170
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 3: I don't know if we can trust the Titans offense

1171
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:21,320
Speaker 3: to give you twenty points anymore. So I'm getting points,

1172
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 3: you know, I'm getting a juice with the Steelers here

1173
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 3: as a money line dog. I'm taking it might end up,

1174
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 3: you know, in the six pack as well. We'll see

1175
00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 3: how that the rest of that goes. But Mike Tomlin

1176
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 3: moneyline dog from October on twenty nine and twenty three

1177
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,720
Speaker 3: fifty six percent in his career three and four this year,

1178
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:45,760
Speaker 3: but you could still be up eleven percent because remember,

1179
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,839
Speaker 3: you don't need to hit every you know, fifty percent

1180
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 3: or better fifty two, fifty three percent or better like.

1181
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 1: You do with a spread to break even here.

1182
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 3: So I'll take the Pittsburgh Steelers plus one oh five

1183
00:54:56,920 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 3: at home against the Titans. I think you get a

1184
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:03,239
Speaker 3: desperate Pittsburgh team that can can can outscore the Titans here.

1185
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:05,880
Speaker 2: My kids want to have a good coursemas.

1186
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 3: So Baltimore plus two hundred Pittsburgh plus one oh five

1187
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 3: would be a five point one five x payout. So

1188
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:14,880
Speaker 3: you bet one hundred hours, you get back six fifteen

1189
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,799
Speaker 3: in total, according to the Action Network Parley calculator, which

1190
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 3: you can find on Action network dot com. All right, now,

1191
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 3: let's quickly get to the best of the rest, which

1192
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:24,719
Speaker 3: are the games that we did not break down in

1193
00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 3: any other segment. All right, stuck, We'll start out with

1194
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:30,320
Speaker 3: the Saturday matchup. We got the Vegas Raiders at the

1195
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 3: Cleveland Browns. This line has moved all the way from

1196
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 3: Cleveland favored by four I think it opened to Vegas

1197
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:38,919
Speaker 3: being favored by one and a half to total thirty nine.

1198
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:43,920
Speaker 3: Cleveland dealing with just massive COVID issues, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry,

1199
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:47,879
Speaker 3: the whole team. So maybe an unders about the only

1200
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 3: thing I could say about this game.

1201
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's gonna be wins, and we're gonna go through

1202
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 2: these games quickly because it's Wednesday, and that there's a

1203
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 2: lot of COVID. There's probably gonna be more COVID but

1204
00:55:56,040 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 2: Mayfield and then they have their whole secondary, their offensive line. Yeah,

1205
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:03,600
Speaker 2: I mean everyone. I mean Hunt is out to Landry.

1206
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 2: I could go on and on and on, and your

1207
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:08,400
Speaker 2: offense it's gonna be like case Keenum and you know,

1208
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 2: Blake Hanson left tackle, Michael Dunn, JaMarcus Bradleytt receiver. There's

1209
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:14,799
Speaker 2: gonna be wins. The best thing about this game is

1210
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 2: Case Keenum said it's gonna be nice to have a

1211
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 2: full Hubb back there. So that was the quote of

1212
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 2: the week. Other than that, Yeah, this line has moved

1213
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 2: on the news. We still do't know who's gonna play.

1214
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: Stefanski has COVID too, So check back Friday from more.

1215
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave down alone. Dallas at the Giants.

1216
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 3: Giants ten and a half point underdogs at home. The

1217
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:40,760
Speaker 3: total forty four and a half don't like the Giants offense.

1218
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 3: Cowboys offense gives them giving me some pause. It's something healthy,

1219
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 3: but I don't know, like and we have to talk

1220
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:50,400
Speaker 3: about this on another show or maybe in deeper on

1221
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:52,839
Speaker 3: just when we have more time. But it seems to

1222
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 3: me like this year is like the year of the

1223
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 3: defensive scheme. We're like, it's where all these like elite

1224
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 3: offenses they're humming and then it's like team just figure

1225
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 3: out to defend him and it's like they just can't adjust.

1226
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 1: So the playoffs are gonna be really interesting, but.

1227
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:06,760
Speaker 3: The Giants won't be there. Dallas almost certainly will.

1228
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:08,160
Speaker 1: Do you see anything here?

1229
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:11,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it looks like Glennon's gonna start again.

1230
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:15,960
Speaker 2: Giants have COVID Protocols five or six positives since Monday,

1231
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 2: could see there as Tony and Zavier McKinney safety has

1232
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:25,480
Speaker 2: been playing really well, the two main names there. Now,

1233
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 2: this line is a little too high for me, but

1234
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 2: with Glennon and the COVID issues to stay away from.

1235
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 3: Now, Yes, at Miami, Miami nine and a half point

1236
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 3: favorites that that line has been moving up in favor

1237
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 3: of Miami.

1238
00:57:39,200 --> 00:57:41,160
Speaker 1: The total forty two and a half.

1239
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 3: Davonte Parker looks like he should be back for Miami,

1240
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 3: but Miami just has no backfield. Miles Gaskin, Phillip Lindsay,

1241
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 3: Savon Ahmed all on the COVID list, and remember Layered

1242
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 3: and Malcolm Brown went down earlier in the year with injuries.

1243
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:57,480
Speaker 3: So there, Well, I don't know who is going to

1244
00:57:57,520 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 3: be out there for Miami. We'll see if anyone it's cleared.

1245
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 3: But that's that's about what we know.

1246
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jets, Duke Johnson I think it is in Duke

1247
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 2: Johnson get called out.

1248
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's on a practice CUD.

1249
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 3: But so with these practice squad guys because they practice

1250
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 3: and attend meetings with the position group, if I'm not mistaken,

1251
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 3: So it's like you never know if those guys are

1252
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 3: going to be able to if they get up your

1253
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 3: land on the list too. So yeah, a lot of

1254
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 3: times what ends up happening is whoever they sign, like

1255
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:26,920
Speaker 3: midweek ends up in there. I think they signed Dexter Williams,

1256
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 3: the former Packers back, So it might be a lot

1257
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:29,720
Speaker 3: of throwing.

1258
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 1: I mean maybe that's the upshot of this, but it's

1259
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 1: about it.

1260
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, Miami doesn't really run much either, and you can

1261
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 2: throw in the Jets secondary. Javan Holland, I think is

1262
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 2: also on the COVID list. That's a big all season,

1263
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 2: playing really well safety for Miami, but Jets COVID protocol.

1264
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 2: I make this line nine total spot on some uncertainty. Hear,

1265
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 2: not a game. I'm running the.

1266
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 3: Bat Falcons at Niners Niners minus nine and a half

1267
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 3: a total of forty six. I think you get a

1268
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 3: motivated Niners team here. Obviously they're still fighting for playoff.

1269
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 3: But remember a couple of years ago. I think the

1270
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 3: first year you and I did the pod together, I

1271
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:07,800
Speaker 3: think I was on the Falcons as like a spread

1272
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:09,920
Speaker 3: and money, and they went upset.

1273
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 1: Just I think you called it too, like a sleepy spot.

1274
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 3: So I think the Niners are going to remember that one,

1275
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 3: and I don't think they come out as flat this time,

1276
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 3: even though it could be a trap game under some

1277
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 3: other circumstances. I think you get a good effort here anythan.

1278
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 2: Ed Falcons COVID protocol. So more to come there to

1279
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 2: see what happens with Atlanta. I think they've been a fraud.

1280
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:33,200
Speaker 2: I mean, they have no wins that impress me all year,

1281
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 2: and I think they're a really bad football team, but

1282
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 2: Kyle Sheennen is a favorite at home and in that stadium.

1283
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 2: Like the fans say it's cursed, they's just weird things happen.

1284
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:45,800
Speaker 2: But I think the line is about right. I think

1285
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:47,560
Speaker 2: Diners are a good teaser piece that it comes back

1286
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 2: down to eight and a half or less.

1287
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I generally avoid at all costs betting on

1288
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 3: Shanahan as a favorite, and you know, usually end up

1289
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 3: fading him, but this is a spot. I just I

1290
00:59:57,520 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 3: do think the Niners will give you a better effort

1291
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 3: and won't kind of shit the bed like they are

1292
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 3: wont to do in the spot.

1293
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 1: But then again, who knows. Arizona at Detroit.

1294
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:14,400
Speaker 3: Try the Cardinals thirteen and a half point road favorites,

1295
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 3: the totals forty seven and a half. The big news

1296
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:21,400
Speaker 3: here DeAndre Hopkins done for the regular season, so that

1297
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 3: is not good news James Connor. Also those questionable Chase

1298
01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 3: Edmonds maybe back. The Cards are deep at pass catcher,

1299
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:30,800
Speaker 3: but obviously losing Hopkins is not idea. But I guess

1300
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 3: this is when they cover right, like they cover you know,

1301
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:37,840
Speaker 3: these ridiculous numbers without Hopkins, you know, so though maybe

1302
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:39,960
Speaker 3: not with Kyler, Murray back, who knows, But I don't know.

1303
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 1: Stay away from me. You got anything on this one? Yeah?

1304
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:43,800
Speaker 2: I mean who's playing for the lines? I don't know.

1305
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 2: They're in COVID protocols. Their whole secondary. They have two

1306
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,040
Speaker 2: practice in the last fifteen days. Their whole secondaries on

1307
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 2: the COVID list. Their starting guard is hurt in practice,

1308
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 2: Jonah Jackson, DeAndre Swift. We don't know if he's gonna

1309
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,080
Speaker 2: play Hockinson. We don't know if he's gonna play Azelone either,

1310
01:00:58,160 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 2: starting linebacker Aquora. They are all in practice today. Who

1311
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:05,800
Speaker 2: does I could go on about their injuries, and then

1312
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:07,800
Speaker 2: you know there's some uncertainly on Arizona side. I could

1313
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:10,360
Speaker 2: see this being a little sleepy spot for Arizona. It's

1314
01:01:10,400 --> 01:01:13,240
Speaker 2: like after that Rams game on Monday night and then

1315
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 2: you know, you got the Colts and the Cowboys coming up.

1316
01:01:15,600 --> 01:01:18,560
Speaker 2: But I don't know who's gonna slow down Murray and company,

1317
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 2: and that secondary, especially if they're all out. Line is inflated, though.

1318
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 2: But I have no interest in back in Detroit. So

1319
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 2: much uncertainty here. I don't know who's playing or coaching

1320
01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 2: or what's going on with the lines.

1321
01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 3: Pure pass Jacksonville jag three and a half point favorite,

1322
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:35,080
Speaker 3: total thirty nine and a half. I actually bet Houston

1323
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:36,680
Speaker 3: early in the week. I thought the line might go

1324
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,400
Speaker 3: to three. It stayed at three and a half. I

1325
01:01:39,440 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 3: just don't think the Jaguar should be waging a field

1326
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 3: goal against anyone. I know Houston's dealing with some injuries,

1327
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 3: so that you know it doesn't feel great.

1328
01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: I think grew Jay Hill, their linebacker is out.

1329
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 3: But the only above average unit in this whole game

1330
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:56,240
Speaker 3: was Houston's defense. Their thirteenth in DVOA overall and on defense,

1331
01:01:56,280 --> 01:02:00,960
Speaker 3: and then eighth against the pass. So listen, I know

1332
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 3: Houston's dealing with some injuries, but I think just two

1333
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:07,760
Speaker 3: bottom of the battle of rosters, Davis Mills actually playing

1334
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:10,720
Speaker 3: well over the last couple of games, completing over seventy

1335
01:02:10,720 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 3: percent of his passes, averaging over three hundred yards, three touchdowns,

1336
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 3: one interception.

1337
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:17,960
Speaker 1: So I just think Houston gets it done here.

1338
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:21,920
Speaker 3: I'm betting they win outright, but it looks like, you know,

1339
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:24,560
Speaker 3: there is some money on Jacksonville here, so might even

1340
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 3: be able to get a four.

1341
01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: But I would take this three anything at three year higher.

1342
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:30,400
Speaker 3: I just don't think the Jag should be weighing any

1343
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 3: type of points right here.

1344
01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence seeds to be regressing. Yeah, keep in my

1345
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:38,040
Speaker 2: eye on that. I refuse to waste any more breath

1346
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 2: on that game.

1347
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 3: So closing it out Seattle at the Rams. Rams opened

1348
01:02:44,600 --> 01:02:47,120
Speaker 3: at around a touchdown favorite, but they're dealing with COVID issues.

1349
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 3: This line is down a four and a half. You

1350
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:52,840
Speaker 3: do have Seattle as an underdog. I don't know how

1351
01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 3: relevant that is with this kind of, you know, weird

1352
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,439
Speaker 3: bizarro version of the Seahawks we've seen lately.

1353
01:02:58,560 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 1: They're kind of rounding in this.

1354
01:03:00,320 --> 01:03:03,919
Speaker 3: But some interesting trends I guess i'll throw out since

1355
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 3: we don't really know what's going on with the Rams

1356
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:08,439
Speaker 3: COVID wise. But Wilson has an underdog twenty five twelve

1357
01:03:08,480 --> 01:03:12,080
Speaker 3: and two, sixty eight percent against the spread, sixty four

1358
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:14,960
Speaker 3: percent is a road dog. And then Sean McVeigh off

1359
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 3: a multi game straight up winning streak seven and twenty

1360
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 3: one against the spread, twenty five percent, one in four

1361
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 3: this year.

1362
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know who's gonna play for the Rams.

1363
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:31,320
Speaker 2: They're getting ravaged by COVID. You both Beckham go on

1364
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,680
Speaker 2: the list today, joining Ramsey of Avenstein. I'm there. There's

1365
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 2: a lot too hard to project right now. Rams have

1366
01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:38,960
Speaker 2: owned this year. They've won seven of nine. If I

1367
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:41,080
Speaker 2: knew everyone was playing, this was an over game for me,

1368
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 2: I've had my favorite total. The last past week's been

1369
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:46,400
Speaker 2: a Seattle over. I think their defense stakes and they've

1370
01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:48,160
Speaker 2: just been getting lucky in the red zone with points.

1371
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:49,960
Speaker 2: I mean, David Millster's like three fifty. They only got

1372
01:03:49,960 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 2: thirteen points. There's a lot of regression coming for that defense.

1373
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:54,640
Speaker 2: And on the opposite side, I think the Seattle offense

1374
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 2: has a lot of regression coming. The Rams offense seems

1375
01:03:57,200 --> 01:03:59,920
Speaker 2: to be finding its footing. Stafford looks healthy to pay

1376
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:02,120
Speaker 2: last two weeks. But I don't know who's gonna play,

1377
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:04,280
Speaker 2: So maybe it'll be have a play or we'll talk

1378
01:04:04,320 --> 01:04:05,080
Speaker 2: about it on Friday.

1379
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:08,640
Speaker 3: A pass for now, just from a band standpoint, really

1380
01:04:08,720 --> 01:04:12,360
Speaker 3: enjoy a Seattle won this game. That would probably pull

1381
01:04:12,400 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 3: them to within either tied with the team with the

1382
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:19,680
Speaker 3: seven seed or within one game. So after all this,

1383
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:22,920
Speaker 3: Seattle might not be dead right after all of this,

1384
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 3: so I I would really like to see Seattle win

1385
01:04:25,640 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 3: this game. But yeah, we'll talk about it more on Friday.

1386
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:33,680
Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by bet mgm,

1387
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:37,160
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01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:33,200
Speaker 5: one or older and physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana,

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01:05:33,320 --> 01:05:38,000
Speaker 5: West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, or Pennsylvania. Please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 5: seven zero seven one one seven in Michigan, one eight

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Speaker 5: One eight hundred bets off in Iowa, or one eight

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01:06:00,440 --> 01:06:03,520
Speaker 5: Not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. Let's

1415
01:06:03,520 --> 01:06:04,280
Speaker 5: get back to the show.

1416
01:06:06,360 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 3: So as a reminder, bonus episode coming Friday with a

1417
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:11,320
Speaker 3: full six pack. We only made one of the six

1418
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:13,600
Speaker 3: pack spread bets today. We still gave you the teaser,

1419
01:06:13,640 --> 01:06:15,080
Speaker 3: we still gave you the total, we still gave you

1420
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:15,919
Speaker 3: the money line dog.

1421
01:06:16,000 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 1: But I just don't think it's right to give.

1422
01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 3: You, you know, six picks on a Wednesday, given well

1423
01:06:21,560 --> 01:06:23,400
Speaker 3: that's going on with COVID.

1424
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 1: Let's close it out. Just talk survivor.

1425
01:06:26,640 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 3: If you're still alive in a survivor pool, this week stuck.

1426
01:06:30,560 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 1: Where are you going?

1427
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:35,080
Speaker 2: I would go probably forty nine ers.

1428
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 3: So far we haven't seen you know, there's COVID issues,

1429
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 3: really haven't been there for them.

1430
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:41,080
Speaker 1: Kiddle Back.

1431
01:06:41,240 --> 01:06:44,080
Speaker 3: That really adds the elements to their offense debos is

1432
01:06:44,200 --> 01:06:47,040
Speaker 3: back as I'm looking at the board right now, looks

1433
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:50,160
Speaker 3: like the safest you know, maybe maybe Miami. It's still

1434
01:06:50,200 --> 01:06:52,680
Speaker 3: a division game, so I think it's still kind of

1435
01:06:52,720 --> 01:06:54,880
Speaker 3: dicey anytime. We're talking about waiting a year or two

1436
01:06:54,920 --> 01:06:58,439
Speaker 3: kind of below average teams, Philly same thing. We'll see

1437
01:06:58,440 --> 01:07:03,320
Speaker 3: what happens with Washington COVID. What about Arizona against Detroit?

1438
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:06,400
Speaker 3: Is that are you would you still go San Fran

1439
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:07,040
Speaker 3: over Arizona?

1440
01:07:07,720 --> 01:07:09,800
Speaker 2: You could use that. I think San Fran has the

1441
01:07:09,880 --> 01:07:12,440
Speaker 2: Texans next, so you could use Arizona here.

1442
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:14,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like you said, it could be a

1443
01:07:14,680 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 3: sleepy spot, whereas I think San fran is kind of

1444
01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:19,760
Speaker 3: more going to be more motivated. But at the same time,

1445
01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:22,400
Speaker 3: we've seen San Francisco kind of mess these things up

1446
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:24,600
Speaker 3: at home and as a favorite in the past. So yeah,

1447
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 3: I think I think Arizona is my number one. San

1448
01:07:26,360 --> 01:07:27,320
Speaker 3: Francisco number two.

1449
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:28,080
Speaker 1: Dallas.

1450
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:33,160
Speaker 3: I don't want to touch just division game on the road, Philly,

1451
01:07:33,240 --> 01:07:35,400
Speaker 3: I'd feel okay about and then yeah, Miami, I feel

1452
01:07:35,400 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 3: okay about Buffalo another team. Probably don't want to touch there.

1453
01:07:39,640 --> 01:07:41,320
Speaker 3: I like the total when I get better than trying

1454
01:07:41,320 --> 01:07:43,600
Speaker 3: to you know, just if you know who knows what's

1455
01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 3: going on with Josh Allen's Another one seems a little

1456
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:47,000
Speaker 3: bit more risk.

1457
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:49,080
Speaker 2: Okay, if you're still alive, you're you're probably doing well

1458
01:07:49,160 --> 01:07:51,120
Speaker 2: enough on your own. But if you need specific advice

1459
01:07:51,160 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 2: about who you have left, there's only probably a couple

1460
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 2: of left. Just reach out the shoot us a tweet,

1461
01:07:55,720 --> 01:07:57,720
Speaker 2: moll answer all right.

1462
01:07:58,040 --> 01:08:02,800
Speaker 3: That wraps it up for the week fifteen Action Network

1463
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:07,000
Speaker 3: Podcast Part one Again, tune in for the second episode

1464
01:08:07,040 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 3: that we'll be dropping on Friday. You can also follow

1465
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 3: all of our picks on the award winning Action Network app.

1466
01:08:12,400 --> 01:08:16,799
Speaker 3: Just search for the Sunday six pack in the follow feature.

1467
01:08:17,280 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 3: You can stuck on Twitter at Stucky Too. You can

1468
01:08:19,560 --> 01:08:21,680
Speaker 3: find me at Chris Raybond. You can find us at

1469
01:08:21,680 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 3: those same handles in the app. Actionnetwork dot Com has

1470
01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:27,519
Speaker 3: all our betting content breakdowns until Friday.

1471
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:30,200
Speaker 2: Skipish money, fuck over time,