Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Speaker 1: Now along with the guys from fanball dot com. Here's
Speaker 1: the host for Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul. I am Paul
Speaker 1: Charchy in my co host today, I'm Fantasy Football Weekly
Speaker 1: is Scott Fish. It's your first time in the off season? Yes,
Speaker 1: first off season show? Was it was? It awesome having
Speaker 1: a month off? It was it was. It didn't feel
Speaker 1: like a month off, but it definitely was. Yeah. You know,
Speaker 1: don't have to prep for the show, and so I'm
Speaker 1: expecting to bring a lot of excitement, a lot of energy.
Speaker 1: You do do it all right? Yeah, And it's a
Speaker 1: super Bowl edition, the first of two, So first of
Speaker 1: two Super Bowls, first of two Fantasy Football Weeklies for
Speaker 1: the Super Bowls, and um, then we'll have to figure
Speaker 1: out all the things we're gonna talk about in the offseason.
Speaker 1: There's enough, you know, I think when when it's you
Speaker 1: and I, I'm I mostly want to talk about gameplay
Speaker 1: variations because you are I think you and I are
Speaker 1: as as excited by different ways to play as anybody
Speaker 1: in the industry pretty much. So, um, I think that
Speaker 1: will be a lot. A lot of the folkus to
Speaker 1: say is we are both pioneers in that field. Well,
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe, but there's lots of stuff throwing
Speaker 1: off season February, there's combine March, there's free agency starts
Speaker 1: new league year April, there's the Draft. We got tons
Speaker 1: of stuff. I'll be at the combine, so we'll have
Speaker 1: a report back from the combine for sure. Niners take on?
Speaker 1: Do you do you hear Niners taken on the Chiefs
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl? Interesting? Yeah, I have not heard yet.
Speaker 1: This is this should be exciting to hear somebody made
Speaker 1: a fifteen to one bet on the Niners last March.
Speaker 1: Is that somebody saying in the room with me that
Speaker 1: tickets paying for my return earned trip to Las Vegas
Speaker 1: on one of those places where you can do anymore.
Speaker 1: I don't know. It was very important distinction. It was
Speaker 1: Niners to make the Super Bowl, So I mean cashing yet,
Speaker 1: but I'm flying to Vegas next week to cash it.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be there for the Super Bowl now and
Speaker 1: it's gonna pay for the trip, which is great. The
Speaker 1: somebody gave me great advice once. Never bet to win
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. Always bet to make the super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Here's why the odds double. So in the case of
Speaker 1: my bet, it was fifteen to one to make the
Speaker 1: super Bowl, thirty to one to win the super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Here's why I cash out my fifteen to one to
Speaker 1: make it right. Let's just say it was a bet
Speaker 1: so that if I still love the Niners, I can
Speaker 1: roll the whole fifteen over, roll it into a super
Speaker 1: Bowl bet and make my three grant. If I don't
Speaker 1: think the Niners are gonna win, I just made my
Speaker 1: money and I don't have to make I don't have
Speaker 1: to have any more risks. That's the way to like it. Um,
Speaker 1: let's talk Niners in chiefs. Let's break down the game
Speaker 1: a little bit. By the way, I think this is
Speaker 1: the best possible Super Bowl. UM, with all due respect
Speaker 1: to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, which would have been great,
Speaker 1: But Patrick Mahomes is more ready to win a super
Speaker 1: Bowl and more ready to make it a great game,
Speaker 1: I think than Lamar Jacksons, and too too extremely good
Speaker 1: like he's you can almost say he's peaking right now.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. The last two games has looked just just unreal.
Speaker 1: I believe over three hundred and both. Uh I think
Speaker 1: last week, okay, so averaging over I'll go there. Then.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I had had the huge run last week.
Speaker 1: It just seems like he's peaking at the right time.
Speaker 1: And it really does just everything's come together for Patrick Mahomes. Um,
Speaker 1: if we just talk about the clearest avenues to victory
Speaker 1: for these two teams, I mean, clearly for the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: it's um, you get ahead early, you take the running
Speaker 1: game away from the forty nine, which is very possible, right,
Speaker 1: Patrick Homes can get a they haven't the last two games,
Speaker 1: and they but they did take away Derrick Henry last
Speaker 1: week and are substantially better defense than the last two
Speaker 1: weeks for the no kidding, not close. Um. And then
Speaker 1: you make Jimmy Garoppolo go win the game, right and
Speaker 1: you know, and I'm not saying he can't. Garoppolo could
Speaker 1: that passing game could win What is the three? Is
Speaker 1: the starter or something like that? Jimm Garoppolo and and
Speaker 1: he and and people don't realize this. And I'm gonna
Speaker 1: steal the step from my clay Jimmy Garoppolo average twent
Speaker 1: nine pass attempts per game during the season. It's not
Speaker 1: like he can't throw. He just didn't need to last week,
Speaker 1: and and he threw a lot in the early goings
Speaker 1: of the season to win games. He did he did.
Speaker 1: Now for the Niners, it's kind of the opposite. They're easy.
Speaker 1: Path to victory is just keep running the ball to
Speaker 1: keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines and keep your defense fresh,
Speaker 1: and you run your way to victory, just like they
Speaker 1: did the last two weeks. Um, both are very plausible, Um, Coleman,
Speaker 1: we we still don't know. They expect him to play.
Speaker 1: But even if even if, even if they don't, that's
Speaker 1: exactly what I was And even if they don't, Shanahan
Speaker 1: schemes so well that it'll be, you know, a little
Speaker 1: extra bread or a little like some news check players
Speaker 1: or whatever, like he'll figure it out. Yeah. Um, I
Speaker 1: do think one of the fascinating elements because the Niners
Speaker 1: have had these early leads and haven't had to pass,
Speaker 1: there's huge portions of the playbook that they haven't had
Speaker 1: to use for for the whole playoffs. On the flip side,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs haven't seen it recently to prep for it, right,
Speaker 1: A lot of truth of that, um, And so I
Speaker 1: think there's a you know, I think there's a sneaky
Speaker 1: advantage for the Niners in that they've just been able
Speaker 1: to coast their way and just run, just run the
Speaker 1: ball to these victories. Had an easy, easy path, there's
Speaker 1: no question, no offense to But now I agree this
Speaker 1: is it. And honestly, Chiefs path wasn't all that hard either,
Speaker 1: have to get through Baltimore, So you know, yeah, all right, anyway,
Speaker 1: let's let's start here from a fantasy standpoints. You break
Speaker 1: down these games. Scott Niners running game, let's let's talk
Speaker 1: about them and the Chiefs run defense Niners, and with
Speaker 1: historic playoff performances. Through the two games, they're averaging forty
Speaker 1: one rushing attempts. By the way, this is just the
Speaker 1: running backs. I'm not even including any I'm not including
Speaker 1: any quarterback runs. Forty one rushing attempts, two hundred thirty
Speaker 1: six rushing yards, and five point eight yards per carre.
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say that's nearly six yards per
Speaker 1: carrying my mental math, that's insane, it's insane, um. But
Speaker 1: that's what Moister was doing. Like all year or two,
Speaker 1: which is the crazy thing. It's insane, and it's you
Speaker 1: think it's not sustainable, but he's sustainable. You know. The
Speaker 1: funny thing is he's higher than the five point eight
Speaker 1: yards per car So here's where he most dits average
Speaker 1: games since week thirteen when he became the lead back
Speaker 1: to the forty nine. And we talked a lot during
Speaker 1: this show during the playoffs and how the fantasy playoffs
Speaker 1: and how he was crushing these fantasy playoff leagues. His
Speaker 1: average game UH since week thirteen six point three yards
Speaker 1: per carry for him posted fifteen carries hundred four yards
Speaker 1: and one and a half touchdowns per game per game.
Speaker 1: That's pretty ridiculous. It is pretty ridiculous that one and
Speaker 1: a half touchdowns is buoyed by last week a little bit,
Speaker 1: but it is um But you know, also there was
Speaker 1: the against the Vikings. It was mostly Tevin Coleman and
Speaker 1: so you know, which I think is less of an
Speaker 1: indictment on where he Morris and more that the Niners
Speaker 1: never felt like the Vikings were a threat, and so
Speaker 1: they were like, let's give let's give the fresh legs
Speaker 1: of of Tevin Coleman a long run in this game. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I can easily see that, and maybe they should have
Speaker 1: gave it given him less of an um. Now, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs obviously halted Derrick Henry last week. Nineteen carries for
Speaker 1: sixty nine yards and three points six yards per carry.
Speaker 1: That's it. So the Chiefs really can play run defense.
Speaker 1: And not only that, but this was a Chief's run
Speaker 1: defense that was a liability for September, October, November. But
Speaker 1: really from December four ward, here's what the Chiefs are
Speaker 1: giving up per game on the ground. Three point eight
Speaker 1: yards per carry seems good. Zero point seven rushing touchdowns
Speaker 1: per game, that's it. Yeah, so they've been able to
Speaker 1: really turn around their run defense. Yeah. Well, and that's
Speaker 1: that's really what the fos bread and butter is right now,
Speaker 1: that which just makes up for a great matchup because
Speaker 1: the past defense has been top six all year in
Speaker 1: several categories. Yeah. So I think from a just a
Speaker 1: fantasy standpoint here where he moster to me feels if
Speaker 1: we're doing our letter grades, he's a B grade for
Speaker 1: me because the Chiefs run defense is improved enough that
Speaker 1: I can't count on him. I don't think Tevin Coleman,
Speaker 1: even if he's active for this game. I don't trust
Speaker 1: him to have a major role in this game I
Speaker 1: have I would put a bench grade on him, and
Speaker 1: if Coleman is out, I put a C grade on
Speaker 1: Matt Brita. How does that feel to you? That feels
Speaker 1: about right? So I'm getting the vibe from you. You
Speaker 1: think that this is an under game, This is not
Speaker 1: going to hit over. Get this. I just read this
Speaker 1: today of the money is on the over. It's moved
Speaker 1: from fifty two to fifty four. The Vegas. Vegas builds
Speaker 1: casinos on sports, better losses. If I want to be
Speaker 1: on the casino side, I go under. Now the super
Speaker 1: Bowls have gone over. Somebody emailed me this today. Well,
Speaker 1: I was on the air in cafe. An super Bowl
Speaker 1: has gone over thirteen of the last fifteen Super Bowls. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that feels right. It just it feels like a lot
Speaker 1: of high school wins. Do you get kind of like
Speaker 1: a like, uh, do you remember when the the Seahawks
Speaker 1: took on Peyton Manning's Broncos? Was it and the Broncos
Speaker 1: just offense offense offense and Seahawks great defense? Do you
Speaker 1: get the kind of super Bowl it was? It was
Speaker 1: Broncos and Cam Newton and the Panthers. Panthers, Yeah, do
Speaker 1: you get that kind of vibe from it? The super
Speaker 1: offense and really good defense and now maybe they neutralize
Speaker 1: or defense wins. I don't, Scott, for the first time
Speaker 1: in my adult life, I don't know who's going to
Speaker 1: win this game. I really don't. It's at one point spread,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know. I'm paid to have opinions
Speaker 1: on this stuff. I don't know. You know, right now,
Speaker 1: eight days, nine days invented from them it was gonna win.
Speaker 1: I am thinking of the Manning Seahawks two thousand fourteen
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, the one where the Seahawks had the best
Speaker 1: defense in the league, the Legion of Boot and they
Speaker 1: got a safety on the first play. That's right, That's
Speaker 1: that's on. I'm wondering, Van, it's kind of attractive to
Speaker 1: think about if the defense wins that battle. Well, And actually,
Speaker 1: there's two good defenses on the field, and there's one
Speaker 1: great offense and one good offense. So alright, let's talk
Speaker 1: about the Niners passing game. Is Jimmy Garoppolo ready for
Speaker 1: this moment? Do you think this moment? Well, he's got
Speaker 1: two Super Bowl rings he does. I've got that. It's
Speaker 1: got two super Bowl rings. Yeah, it's not like he's
Speaker 1: never been a part of the lead up to the
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Is not of feel um. We had um.
Speaker 1: We had John Sullivan on the radio with me today
Speaker 1: and he was the he was the Rams Center. Last
Speaker 1: hear that. And you know, the chaos that leads up
Speaker 1: to the super Bowl, it's a massive distraction and it's
Speaker 1: unlike anything you've done in any week prior to that.
Speaker 1: So the fact that Garoppolo can come in with the
Speaker 1: experience of having been through all of that, although not
Speaker 1: not as a spotlight player, but still having gone through it,
Speaker 1: I think I think there is some value to that.
Speaker 1: He's always had this cool, calm collected vibe, Like even
Speaker 1: when he took over the starting job in San Francisco,
Speaker 1: they would have those like Mike David's of him just
Speaker 1: just being cool and calm collected no matter what the
Speaker 1: situation down in late in the fourth it's just it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter to him. I think, I think you're right
Speaker 1: about that, And um, I don't. I don't. I don't
Speaker 1: worry about the moment being too big for at all,
Speaker 1: even though it's you know, he's younger and he has
Speaker 1: less playoff experience. UM, but I think he's excited for it.
Speaker 1: I'm sure, I'm sure he is. But he's just He's
Speaker 1: just always been up for every single big moment throughout
Speaker 1: his career. So I'm not worried about my homes alright.
Speaker 1: So back to the Niners passing game here. UM. Garoppolo
Speaker 1: has barely passed in the two playoff wins. As you know,
Speaker 1: we talked about the running. The Niners have run the
Speaker 1: ball eighty one times. He's thrown seven passes against two games,
Speaker 1: less than his season average in two games. Isn't that nuts? Um? Niners? Um? Well,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, they've kept a lot of their playbook
Speaker 1: under wraps, which I think does give Garoppolo a bit
Speaker 1: of an intangible advantage. His average passing game since Week eight,
Speaker 1: so basically second half of the season has been two
Speaker 1: thirty eight yards, which is very low. One almost two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: which is the Vegas over under on him. Is like,
Speaker 1: funny how that works? It's not a coincidence, I'm sure, Um,
Speaker 1: almost two touchdowns, half an interception of real high completion
Speaker 1: percentage of sixty which is great, um, and a pass
Speaker 1: rating of a hundred three. That's those pretty good numbers,
Speaker 1: but they're not they're not massive fantasy numbers. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's always had that where his touchdowns, but even his
Speaker 1: touchdown the interception ratio is not that great over his career.
Speaker 1: He's he's not the fantasy stalwart we kind of hoped
Speaker 1: he would be. That's Patrick Mahomes. That's Patrick Mahomes right exactly.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs allowed the fewest yards to wide receivers this year,
Speaker 1: which is a stunning turn around from the year before.
Speaker 1: I remember, I remember that as we were leading up
Speaker 1: late into the season that they were like middle of
Speaker 1: the pack for a while, and then it just was
Speaker 1: like they were one of the best and not allowing
Speaker 1: very many touchdowns at all, which No and fifth fewest,
Speaker 1: fifth fewest touchdowns wide receivers, in the fewest yards to
Speaker 1: wide receivers. So I'm I don't particularly a good thing.
Speaker 1: They're playing a team that doesn't, you know, has middling
Speaker 1: wide receivers. How are they on tight ends? Charge We'll
Speaker 1: get to that second. Uh Deebo Samuel runs sixty percent
Speaker 1: of his routes from the left or the slot, which
Speaker 1: puts him against Brushod Perriman and h Or and Kendall Fuller, respectively,
Speaker 1: both have been pretty good. Breeland has been terrific in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. He's allowed two completions on seven passes into
Speaker 1: his coverage. Fuller's allowed one touchdown in his last eleven games.
Speaker 1: So Deebo Samuel has been a nice spark plug for them. Um,
Speaker 1: this might not be the key. Who's going to get
Speaker 1: it for the passing game on the four nine uh,
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Sanders will run from the slot. He's also used
Speaker 1: more often than that on the outside and he's on
Speaker 1: the right side. He'll see a lot of chart various
Speaker 1: West Who's the best Chiefs cornerback? He's been actually pretty great.
Speaker 1: He's allowed two scores all year and one since Week four.
Speaker 1: That's it. That's that's very little for all of those
Speaker 1: That's that's what That's what it takes to be the
Speaker 1: number one pasteven. Not giving up a lot of touchdowns
Speaker 1: helps ups a lot. So then let's get to Kittle,
Speaker 1: Who's I think about to be on in this He
Speaker 1: has to if they want to win this game. He
Speaker 1: has to be sparingly used as a receiver. He loses
Speaker 1: a lot as a blocker in the in the playoffs
Speaker 1: so far. Against Minnesota, Kittle was just three catches sixteen yards.
Speaker 1: Against Green Bay one catch eighteen yards. Killed The DFS
Speaker 1: players killed them. Um he gets he gets targeted on
Speaker 1: a whopping twenty six percent of his routes run, which
Speaker 1: is great. So when he does run routes, there's a
Speaker 1: huge high percentage that he's going to get the ball.
Speaker 1: Kansas City ranks. Here's Kansas City's ranks against tight ends
Speaker 1: yards allowed twenty six sorry nine third or fourth worst
Speaker 1: receptions allowed to tight ends thirty first by the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Here comes George freaking Kittle. I think they are gonna
Speaker 1: I think for all those passes he didn't get the
Speaker 1: last the last two weeks, they're common baby, and and
Speaker 1: I unfortunately agree with the public money on the over,
Speaker 1: well least when it was fifty two and a half.
Speaker 1: I guess it's at fifty four now. So but I
Speaker 1: I feel, I feel a lot of shootout in this battle.
Speaker 1: I wonder what kiddles if you have you've got your
Speaker 1: computer in front of you. Seventy point five five point
Speaker 1: five receptions is his and then seventy point five yards,
Speaker 1: so he's had sixteen yards in nineteen yards and they've
Speaker 1: set the line at seventy. Yeah. And and he had
Speaker 1: top seventy and three straight prior to those two games,
Speaker 1: which doesn't surprise me. Now he Kittle draws a fascinating
Speaker 1: matchup with Tyrone Matthew. I mean, Matthew has been awesome,
Speaker 1: It's been awesome for years. Yep. But Kelsey's got four
Speaker 1: inches and fifty pounds on him. Um. Matthews super physical,
Speaker 1: isn't afraid to get his jersey dirty. He had eighty
Speaker 1: two tackles this year. Yeah, Matthew did. Yeah, and a
Speaker 1: fantastic pass defender. He hasn't allowed a touchdown in fourteen game.
Speaker 1: He's a prepper too, does so much prep work. That's
Speaker 1: why he's I think that's a big part of it.
Speaker 1: They've got to know he's coming. The passer rating against
Speaker 1: Matthew sixty eight. Sixty eight is the passer rating. It's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: It's it's very low. Uh. Kittles an elite blocking tight end,
Speaker 1: but that we're not going to get fantasy points for that.
Speaker 1: I still think at the end of the day, I
Speaker 1: think the volume is coming. They just have to get this.
Speaker 1: They can't depend on Kendricks like they can't know. I
Speaker 1: think that, and it's some in some point in this game,
Speaker 1: unlike the last two games, they're going to have to
Speaker 1: complete some passes to Kettle. I think they're just not
Speaker 1: gonna I just don't think the Niners, You're not. They're
Speaker 1: not gonna keep Andy Reid's offense to like nineteen points.
Speaker 1: This is an offense that average twenty nine game or
Speaker 1: something game. Um And if you think that they're going
Speaker 1: to throw the kittle seven times eight times, no, this
Speaker 1: he catches of the balls throwing his way. So if
Speaker 1: you think he's gonna get seven catches, if it's seven targets,
Speaker 1: there's six catches. And you think he's gonna get ten targets,
Speaker 1: there's eight catches. I think we're on the same page. Kittles.
Speaker 1: Kittles in for a big game here. I don't I
Speaker 1: don't know how much I can trust the other receiver.
Speaker 1: Give me a letter grade on Kittle, I'd give him
Speaker 1: an all right. How about the receivers benchable? I mean
Speaker 1: Sanders maybe a seed, but I'd probably bench them all,
Speaker 1: even Deebo Samuel. I know it's I don't love the matchups,
Speaker 1: but Samuel has been awfully good. Yeah, but he has
Speaker 1: also been hit and miss at times. Deebo Samuel's over
Speaker 1: under his fifty four point five, which feels fair given
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. He's he's caught some balls
Speaker 1: and he's been very aggressive in pushing downfield when he
Speaker 1: gets them. Not deep speed downfield. I'm talking about, you know,
Speaker 1: catching the ball and then turning up field with him
Speaker 1: and fighting tackles. Makes sense. Um, Alright, So that's uh,
Speaker 1: that is the San Francisco side. When we come back,
Speaker 1: we'll break down the Chiefs side of the ball. This
Speaker 1: is the more fascinating offense side, the more fascinating fantasy side.
Speaker 1: We'll be back in moments with more fantasy football weekly.
Speaker 1: All Right, We're back, Paul Charge and Scott Fish breaking
Speaker 1: down the Super Bowl fantasy style you know, next week.
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure who's with me next week. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's you. I think it might be Matt Weeps or something. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, we'll we'll go back and touch on anything
Speaker 1: that we think has changed from this um and then
Speaker 1: I think we will talk some props. We just talked
Speaker 1: about most or we don't know about Baby Coleman's we
Speaker 1: know more at that time. When Coleman is on the
Speaker 1: cart last week, I wasn't feeling real good about most
Speaker 1: it's over under his seventy five total yards. Right now,
Speaker 1: it's a pretty good line because it makes me good line.
Speaker 1: It really does make me think, that's totally hard. I'm nervous.
Speaker 1: I'm nervous about that. Okay, let's go to the cheap side. Uh,
Speaker 1: let's start with a rushing attack, which is less interesting.
Speaker 1: We'll save the best for last. Patrick problems. Damien Williams
Speaker 1: has gotten twenty nine of thirty running back handoffs when
Speaker 1: he's the lead back. He's the lead back, that's and
Speaker 1: that's when he's healthy, basically. Um, but get this, he's
Speaker 1: running these are they in the playoffs? He's run for
Speaker 1: three point two yards per carry. That's not great, Bob,
Speaker 1: That isn't good. Now. Tennessee is a good run defense,
Speaker 1: so and looking at those runs, he didn't leave really many,
Speaker 1: if any yards on the table. He was maximizing what
Speaker 1: he could against Tennessee, which in the just it just
Speaker 1: wasn't there. Houston is not a great run defense. I
Speaker 1: expected Martin. Now, he was very good through the air
Speaker 1: against those against both teams as a as an important
Speaker 1: part of the passing game. Get this, Niners are so
Speaker 1: good against receiving running backs. Hang on, here's my numbers
Speaker 1: on that. So Williams through the air, his over under
Speaker 1: the Vegas over under, his three point five receptions, which
Speaker 1: seems really high, and thirty point five yards through the
Speaker 1: air for Damian Williams. Yeah, in receiving for Davian Wiyiams. Well,
Speaker 1: here's your stats. You'rer relevant shorts for you. Um, this
Speaker 1: is in the regular season. I just have time to
Speaker 1: add in the playoffs and the regular season, san Francisco allowed.
Speaker 1: It allowed the third fewest running back receptions, the second
Speaker 1: fewest running back yards, and zero touchdowns through the air
Speaker 1: to running backs. It's not a great manager for his
Speaker 1: Damian Williams to me, is a C grade runner here.
Speaker 1: San Francisco ranked eighth and rushing yards allowed in the
Speaker 1: regular season, third in rushing touchdowns allowed. They limited Aaron
Speaker 1: Jones to fifty six rushing yards and they helped Alvin
Speaker 1: Cook eighteen. I think you should be putting Williams in
Speaker 1: the same boat as moster in this game, where with
Speaker 1: probably a C grade, you know, seventy to nine seventy
Speaker 1: to eighty yards. Maybe hope they got most rolling into
Speaker 1: this game. It's six half yards per carry and I
Speaker 1: got I got half of that from Damian Williams. Most
Speaker 1: most a soft be Williams is a C Almost exactly
Speaker 1: the same over under as far as total yards. Let's
Speaker 1: go to the passing attack with the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 1: as you alluded to at the beginning of the show,
Speaker 1: absolutely electric in these two games. UM. As a quick aside,
Speaker 1: he's the most talented quarterback I've ever seen based on
Speaker 1: what we've seen so far. Yep. I've heard this argument
Speaker 1: recently about some people are like, you know, I thought
Speaker 1: Rogers was the most just talent, you know, not you know,
Speaker 1: whatever measure you want, but just talent wise, arm talent wise.
Speaker 1: A lot of people are on Rogers, and I think
Speaker 1: people are starting to flip to Mahomes, and I think
Speaker 1: I'm there too. You know, there's no there's nothing Mahomes
Speaker 1: doesn't do at an extraordinary level. If it's reading defenses,
Speaker 1: if it's arm strength, if it's UH catchable pass, if
Speaker 1: it's UM mobility snot Lamar Jackson be super mobile UM.
Speaker 1: If it's throwing on the run if it's improvisation, you
Speaker 1: know the crazy how did he do that? You know everything,
Speaker 1: it's all there, there's nothing. He is not a an
Speaker 1: eight out of ten, nine out of ten, of ten
Speaker 1: out of tenet. It's one of those one of those
Speaker 1: where there's just no clear weakness, no weakness in his game. Um,
Speaker 1: all right, so that's you know what he's over under
Speaker 1: a touchdown passes in this game is no? So let
Speaker 1: point two point two point five? Ye? So? Um, so
Speaker 1: they're expecting at least two or three touchdowns from him.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I could place that bet either way.
Speaker 1: The let's talk ma Holmes. Uh, He's thrown for eight
Speaker 1: touchdowns in the playoffs. Eight the game against Houston was
Speaker 1: just no interceptions. I can't think of an interception. Don't
Speaker 1: believe he has any interceptions. Niners were the number one
Speaker 1: past defense this season. So let's let's get to the
Speaker 1: other side of the story here. Number one past defense
Speaker 1: this season, allowing a league low one nine passing yards
Speaker 1: per game, and better than that if you take out
Speaker 1: the month of December when the Niners were racked with injuries.
Speaker 1: They were missing four and five defensive starters. We just
Speaker 1: take that month's side, here's the average UM. If you
Speaker 1: take out the month of December, here's the average game
Speaker 1: the Niners gave up to opposing quarterbacks one hundred sixty
Speaker 1: one passing yards nothing, zero point eight passing touchdowns. So
Speaker 1: they could give up double their average game to Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1: That would be a three yard game and one and
Speaker 1: a half touchdowns. And that's a bad game. They're gonna win.
Speaker 1: They'll win if that's all they give up to Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes is double what they give up to most quarterbacks. Now,
Speaker 1: it's starting to feel more and more like that defense
Speaker 1: five gonna take it home, UM, feeling like the under
Speaker 1: as well. The two playoff games so far, the quarterbacks
Speaker 1: they faced for the Niners. Kirk Cousins obviously had a
Speaker 1: bad game, hundred seventy two yards, one touchdown, six sacks absorbed.
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers had the one long bomb to Davante Adams,
Speaker 1: which excused the numbers a little bit, but that got
Speaker 1: him up to three passing yards and two touchdowns, three sacks.
Speaker 1: Playing from behind garbage, a lot of it was garbage time,
Speaker 1: way way behind, and the long the long bomb to Adams.
Speaker 1: He wasn't you know that's when the box score lies. UM,
Speaker 1: let's talk about the wide receivers. Tyreek Hill runs seventy
Speaker 1: of his routes naturally away from Richard Sherman's side of
Speaker 1: the field. They don't have to change his They don't
Speaker 1: have to change and doesn't have to change what they
Speaker 1: ask Tyreek Hill to do at all to just naturally
Speaker 1: have him avoid Richard Sherman. It's a big advantage. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Hill is going to get his in this game. I'm
Speaker 1: not worried about Hill. I'm more worried about the other receivers.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people, people, especially if you're
Speaker 1: playing DFS or whatever, are gonna possibly chase Watkins when
Speaker 1: they shouldn't. Well, see this puts Watkins and Watkins runs
Speaker 1: a lot from the slot too, but he runs slot
Speaker 1: and right. He'll run slot and left mostly Watkins versus Sherman.
Speaker 1: Dead dead, no thanks, no way. UM. I know there's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of people that are gonna remember
Speaker 1: that Davante Adams bomb that went right over Sherman. Um,
Speaker 1: that's such an outlier. Sherman has been awesome this year.
Speaker 1: I don't know Adams and Watkins are such on the
Speaker 1: same level that exactly exactly. Um, alright, let's su and
Speaker 1: I don't think Robinson has been a disaster bunch of
Speaker 1: drops in the playoffs, and Nicole Hardman just they don't
Speaker 1: they don't use them enough. I heard somewhere recently that
Speaker 1: and I should have double checked this that Robinson hasn't
Speaker 1: had more than three targets like all year, or like
Speaker 1: that's in a game all year or something since we
Speaker 1: since Hill came back, since Hill came back. Maybe maybe
Speaker 1: I thought it was since that big, huge week the
Speaker 1: weeks Watkins had the big Week one, Remember all the
Speaker 1: poor fantasy owners, Watkins has the giant Week one that
Speaker 1: does nothing on here. Then Robinson he'll go then he'll
Speaker 1: goes down. In week one, Robinson gets all this love
Speaker 1: and Week two and all these all this fab money
Speaker 1: comes in on Robinson a week two that he did
Speaker 1: nothing for the rest of the year. And you can't
Speaker 1: even blame if fantasy owners who are following those things,
Speaker 1: because who doesn't want part of a passing attack, of
Speaker 1: a cheaps passing attack that doesn't go through Tyreek Hill anymore.
Speaker 1: We talked about it so many weeks, so many week Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's only he only topped three catches once since week too.
Speaker 1: That's what it was. Um, Yeah, we talked about so
Speaker 1: many weeks, were like should we pick up Nicole Hardman?
Speaker 1: Should we pick up? And we could never pinpoint which
Speaker 1: was the right one. Nobody could. Let's talk Travis Kelsey,
Speaker 1: who can be a big difference in this game. The
Speaker 1: Niners have been oddly susceptible to tight ends. This is
Speaker 1: I'm giving you just some names of guys that have
Speaker 1: punished the Niners since Week ten. Tyler Higbee, Jared Cook,
Speaker 1: Mark Andrews, Jacob Hollister all second half of the season.
Speaker 1: You know, relatively recent tight ends that posted meaningful fantasy
Speaker 1: games against them. I think the point is a lowed
Speaker 1: six or seven touchdowns to ten ends on the season
Speaker 1: and sounds right. Last week Jimmy Graham had a solid
Speaker 1: games and Jimmy Graham's not that good, but he rolled
Speaker 1: up four catches for fifty nine yards. I'll take that.
Speaker 1: I'll take that too. And by the way, think it
Speaker 1: was four targets four catches Kelsey had. He destroyed Houston
Speaker 1: two weeks ago, then was quiet last week. He had
Speaker 1: a ten catch game against Houston two games ago. It's
Speaker 1: almost like fantasy championships, usually someone has kidl or Kelsey.
Speaker 1: I'm funny, and here we are talking about him. All right,
Speaker 1: Let's do some letter grades on members of the passing game.
Speaker 1: Tell me if still start here with Patrick Mahomes, what's
Speaker 1: the letter grade you'd give him? At Scott, I am
Speaker 1: still going with an A. I've seen Mahomes throw up
Speaker 1: three hundred yards on some of the best defenses the
Speaker 1: NFL over the last two years, so I'm still not
Speaker 1: scared of it. His the Vegas over under, his three
Speaker 1: oh five two and a half three oh five yards
Speaker 1: and two and a half touchdowns, I think that's a
Speaker 1: fair line. I'm with Vegas there, and I think that's
Speaker 1: a decent fantasy day, So I'm giving him an A. Okay, Um,
Speaker 1: let's go to Tyreek Hill. Tyrek Hill, I'm still giving
Speaker 1: an A. Vegas over under on him is seventy nine
Speaker 1: and a half. I think that he's the kind of
Speaker 1: guy that could break the game open. He's the kind
Speaker 1: of guy that and T. T Are said he's away
Speaker 1: from Shrman, but he's the kind of guy that it's
Speaker 1: just gonna take one play, and I think he's very
Speaker 1: likely to get it. And I I weirdly trust Andy
Speaker 1: Reid to be a little creative in this game. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean it's not weird, but I expect something creative,
Speaker 1: and that would probably mean Tyreek Hill all right, and
Speaker 1: any other of the wide receivers for the Chiefs even
Speaker 1: get anything other than a bench grade for you, Okay,
Speaker 1: they're all up. Um. You know, if I were in
Speaker 1: if I were in Vegas and I'm looking for a
Speaker 1: shock prop, you know, Nicole Hardman is is tempting on
Speaker 1: something like first score of the game, where you could
Speaker 1: probably get you know, fifty two one, uh, because he's
Speaker 1: another guy like Tyreek Hill that can be just the
Speaker 1: game changing ability. He can turn a ten yard game,
Speaker 1: he can turn the Janiard pass into a seventy yard touchdown,
Speaker 1: because yeah, that's basically what he is. He's like you're
Speaker 1: gonna getting you can get an ad R touchdown on
Speaker 1: or seven yard touchdown, or you can get zero catches. Yes,
Speaker 1: yeah I wanna. I know his line is twenty four
Speaker 1: and a half yards, but I wonder what some of
Speaker 1: those other lines for him, like scoring a touchdown or
Speaker 1: first score the games, because yeah, those could be uh
Speaker 1: some pretty best. It's the best first score of the
Speaker 1: game I've ever hit, and I wonder what it looks
Speaker 1: like here in this game was Aaron Rodgers in here's
Speaker 1: about ten years ago a FC championship. I think it
Speaker 1: was here they won the Super Bowl, and I picked
Speaker 1: him to be first score the game and hit that
Speaker 1: one in Vegas at an f S T A conference
Speaker 1: and been a couple could have been the Giants one
Speaker 1: and oh seven or oh maybe it was, I don't remember. Um,
Speaker 1: but quarterback, the Vegas always materially underappreciates rushing quarterbacks and
Speaker 1: quarterback rushing opportunity, and um right, it's not like you know,
Speaker 1: all you need is a goal to go from the
Speaker 1: one and here comes your quarterback rushing touchdown. So Garoppolo
Speaker 1: and even better mahmes, I'd love to I was gonna say,
Speaker 1: how many Garoppolo rushing touchdowns are? Not a lot? Probably
Speaker 1: probably just a couple. Okay. So then last letter grade
Speaker 1: I'm looking for you from you is on Travis kiss
Speaker 1: An that that that's it's a weird thing to say
Speaker 1: with the Chiefs, that it's like three a's and then
Speaker 1: maybe you see for the running back and just nothing else. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you still expect them to somehow put up thirty
Speaker 1: five points. You just can't trust or you know what,
Speaker 1: twenty nine points their average. Now you just can't trust
Speaker 1: those other options, even though one of them is bound
Speaker 1: to do something. No, I think you're right. Um, I
Speaker 1: said earlier, at this stage, nine days out, I don't
Speaker 1: know who's going to win. Do you have a Do
Speaker 1: you have a lean or even a strong opinion on
Speaker 1: who will win this game? Nope, not at all. I have.
Speaker 1: I have gone back and forth so many times it's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: And people you're probably listening to this can tell I
Speaker 1: feel that way. Like I feel like Andy Reid's offense
Speaker 1: is going to figure something out. And I I loved
Speaker 1: you know, if it's a battle an offensive shootout, I
Speaker 1: like the Chiefs. But that defense is so good that
Speaker 1: I can see queen either way. I defense is so good.
Speaker 1: It's it's it is, it's really. I'm excited for this
Speaker 1: game more than I have been in recent years for
Speaker 1: for super Bowls. Like we said at the outset, this
Speaker 1: is the best possible super Bowl matchup, This is the
Speaker 1: most this is the best NFC team, that's the most
Speaker 1: interesting NFC team with the most different ways to win,
Speaker 1: and this is the most ready to win a f
Speaker 1: C team. The right team's got to the end, and
Speaker 1: that doesn't always happen. Didn't happen last year for that matter.
Speaker 1: You know, if you don't have to go back far
Speaker 1: to career rushing touchdowns for it. Yes, I hit it
Speaker 1: um and you know it at from the one yard line.
Speaker 1: They'll still probably use their running backs because they do,
Speaker 1: and so you know, Garppol would be really a shot
Speaker 1: in the dark. But I bet Mahomes is if you see,
Speaker 1: if you can google this quickly, first player to score
Speaker 1: prop I bet Mahomes is one first player to score,
Speaker 1: first player to score, the first player to score. Let's
Speaker 1: see to see if you how quickly you can google that. Well,
Speaker 1: I've already got the touchdown props up. Let's see last
Speaker 1: touchdown score. Who cares about? Is weird? Alright? I got
Speaker 1: it up and it's taking longer to fund than I thought. Well,
Speaker 1: it might not have been a reasonable request on demand. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I just think there's I just think there's an angle here.
Speaker 1: M m yeah, maybe not. Yeah, I'm not finding it, okay, alright,
Speaker 1: well it's not it's not a big deal. Maybe one
Speaker 1: of our listeners. We'll we'll tell us via Twitter. They
Speaker 1: can find you at Scott Fish twenty four at Scott
Speaker 1: Fish four. I am at Paul Charchy and you can
Speaker 1: tweet us and let us know what is What is
Speaker 1: the Patrick Mahomes odds to be first player to score?
Speaker 1: And I don't know if they break that down by
Speaker 1: team or they just say in the game first player
Speaker 1: to score in the game is you know, and it
Speaker 1: could be players from either team or if it's first
Speaker 1: chief to score will be Patrick Mahomes. And I found it? Okay,
Speaker 1: all right? What is it? Plus two plus two thousands? Alright?
Speaker 1: One twenty two one on Patrick Mahomes will be the
Speaker 1: first one to score? Most Yeah, plus five hundred plus
Speaker 1: six hundred? Do I like that? Bad? Oh? I like that?
Speaker 1: That's three Russian time touchdowns in his last seven games.
Speaker 1: How about that one? That's that's my new favorite bet
Speaker 1: of the super Bowl? Right there, Patrick Mahomes. And after
Speaker 1: this podcast, it'll be like tender one watch it move, Uh, Scott,
Speaker 1: great job today. I hope everybody that's one of the
Speaker 1: super Bowl. We'll be back one more time before the
Speaker 1: super Bowl, will recap some of this stuff, talk more
Speaker 1: of the player props that we like. Um next week
Speaker 1: as well. Thanks for listening, everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is
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