WEBVTT - Week 8 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 62) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.480 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.200 Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:21.239 find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. With me 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.520 as he is every week is Matt Perrault. You can 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.640 find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt Matt. What's 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:28.040 going on? 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:31.040 Well, we are into the middle part of the year. Now, 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:33.880 we gotta get our butts in gear this week. 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:39.720 Dan, God that last week. You know, beats happen both ways. 0:00:39.800 --> 0:00:41.879 You know, you get lucky sometimes, you know. But we 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.360 turned a four and one week into a two and 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:48.239 three week in a way that was just killer. With 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:53.840 the Brown's missing the extra point to win by three. 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:56.120 We had him at laying three and a half and 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.520 the Seahawks just basically doing the fact. I'm glad they 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.440 lost that game. I'm glad because they should have covered 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.200 the three and a half points spread. But we'll get 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:06.440 into all of that. There are some games that we 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:08.760 both like, although we have not talked about it as 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.040 we did last week, we decided to you know what, 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:13.800 no Leans even beforehand. We're gonna be fresh when we 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:15.720 get into this. Hopefully we are on the same side 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:17.960 of games because we are not always a couple of 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:20.479 things before we get into the week eight slate number 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:23.720 one discord. If you listen to the Daily Juice, which 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.560 you should, you have probably heard about this. You may 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:28.200 be in it already. Last I checked, we had I 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:32.039 don't know, over six hundred and fifty people in there already. 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:34.480 It's just like a chat. Okay, you come in. There 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:36.200 are different channels to talk about whatever you want. You 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:38.480 can talk about any sport you want. Matt and I 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:41.040 are in there popping in, we're talking, we're giving plays, 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:43.560 things like that. But generally it's just the community for 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:46.360 other people who are on betting pros who want to 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:50.600 talk about various things. That's at bettingpros dot com slash chat. 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:52.120 You can join, no fee, you don't have to be 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:56.160 a subscriber or anything like that. Second, our prop bet 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:58.560 sheet sheet, by the way, Matt, that's what we're calling 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:00.640 it now, just because I know, all right, that's what 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:04.800 that's the name we have settled on prop bet sheet sheet. 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:07.920 That's at bettingpros dot com slash props. You can go there. 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:11.040 That is going to compare consensus projections to props that 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.640 are available in the market, and it gives you recommendations 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:18.120 based on the delta between the consensus projections and the 0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:20.720 actual projections given out by the various sportsbook Now, this 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.080 has just launched, so we are still kind of, you know, 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:25.359 working through it, but it's a really interesting tool. We 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.840 should go check it out again. Bettingpros dot com slash Props. 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:31.680 As always, we are going to get into every game 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:34.480 on this week's late but as we kind of did, 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:37.720 let's recap last week very quickly. Matt and I went 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:39.760 two and three, two bad beats. We are now nineteen 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:43.400 and sixteen on the season, fifty four point three percent. Okay, Now, 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:47.200 if you are a regular sports gambler, that's Good's that 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:49.359 you're beating what you want to do. But where we 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:52.080 are in the DK Championship is not exactly where we 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:54.920 want to be. We are let me see what the 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:58.760 number is. I can't find where we are exactly, but 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:02.320 we are somewhere in the high two hundredths of the 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:04.600 six hundred and ninety one. So we're in the top half. 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:06.200 But we've got a long way to go. 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:06.400 Now. 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:10.680 The people who are cashing are I think only two games. 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:12.480 I think they might be between two and three games. 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.160 Ahead of us, Matt, but it's it's mostly people who 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:18.079 haven't who have already taken a bye, so their percentages 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:20.880 kind of in between two and three games ahead. So 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.320 we have not buried ourselves by any meanings, but we've 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:26.160 got to get going with a four and one week 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:29.200 or a five on one week. So last week we 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:33.560 just had the wrong side on that Pats game against 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.440 the forty nine ers, completely wrong side, missed on that one, 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:38.120 and we lost on the Browns lanth three and a 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:40.640 half to the Bengals on the missed extra point, and 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:42.600 we lost on the Seahawks laying three and a half 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.120 to the Cardinals on about eight different ways that the 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:47.560 Seahawks have covered that game. Now, we did win on 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:49.320 one of the games that we both really like to start, 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.320 the Panthers getting seven and a half from the Saints, 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:54.720 and we also said that we were not gonna change 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:57.960 based on our picks unless something happened. Well, we decided 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:01.600 because we are liars essentially to get off the Packers 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:04.040 laying three and a half to the Texans was the 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:05.720 game that Matt didn't love at the time that we 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:07.880 picked it. He was initially on the other side, but 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:10.360 we decided to get off that because Aaron Jones was 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:13.360 not gonna play, and we Matt came around to what 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:15.760 my topic was, which was the Bucks laying two and 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:19.320 a half to the Raiders, which hit anyway, so a 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:21.640 distinction without a difference. So anyway, I've got it now 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:24.200 two hundred and ninety third out of six hundred eighty nine. 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:26.160 So we need a big week here, Matt, are you ready? 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:26.760 Are you ready? 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:29.480 If hear that, I am, I'm just gonna I'm still 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.920 reeling from your vocabulary the delta. Wow, you're dropping big, 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:33.680 big words here. 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.760 My friend correct, I read words. 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:38.279 Podcast or source. 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:41.920 I like see words. Good. All right, so let's get 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.120 into it, Matt, who is your number one picker? Man, 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.440 I'm so nervous because I'm so terrified because I have 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:48.599 like five games that I'm like, I could deal with 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:50.440 these games. I'm terrified we're gonna be on the wrong side. 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:51.159 So go ahead, stars off. 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:55.360 Welcome to weather guys. Yes, this is the point of 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:57.320 the year where you must be and you should be. 0:04:57.480 --> 0:04:59.920 Literally before you put a single dollar down in any bet, 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:02.800 you have to look at the weather forecast. The worst 0:05:02.960 --> 0:05:06.960 weather game of the weekend is going to be in Cleveland, Ohio. Yep, 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.560 we're having thirty to forty miles per hour wins. We're 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.920 having cold temperatures. You might say, wow, that's a bad 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:16.479 deal for the team from Las Vegas. No, this is 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.080 a run team. This is a power football team. This 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:21.599 is a nasty football team. And they dink and dunk 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:23.760 with the best of them. They don't throw deep at all. 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:27.040 Baker Mayfield does not have Odo Beckham Junior. I'm catching 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:29.400 two and a half points from the Raiders. Raiders will 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:32.560 win this game outright. Raiders plus two and a half 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:33.720 is my top pick of the week. 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:36.240 Okay, so, first of all, I saw you tweeting with 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:37.880 I think Kevin Roth. Is that right? 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:38.239 Correct? 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:40.480 From right? Yes, He, by the way, is a great 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:43.560 He's a you know, if you play daily fantasy sports, 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:45.800 if you bet on sports, he's a great followup because 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:47.560 he's great with the weather. And Yeah, there are I 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:50.040 think three games where Wind and you and I talk 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:51.880 a lot about it. It's like the one thing that 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:54.359 you're worried about when it comes to sports gambling is 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:57.600 Wind with football. That's a big difference. I'm gonna go 0:05:57.600 --> 0:05:58.960 ahead and write this one in Matt because I'm on 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:02.040 that side as well. Doesn't even even without the weather, Matt, 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:04.440 I think this is a spot for the Raiders. I mean, 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:06.760 the Raiders I think are a couple things. Number One, 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.280 they're a better team than I think the public gives 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:11.760 them credit for because I think right they have a 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.479 stigma of what they were kind of last year, and 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:17.239 just generally speaking, they're not a bad team. Their defense 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:19.480 not great as of right now, but they had a 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:21.799 lot of injuries last week. They had the whole offensive 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:24.159 line thing preventing them from practicing, which is why the 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:26.039 Bucks I thought were needs to play. And the Bucks 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:28.479 are really really good team. I get that they're coming, 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:32.159 you know, to there. It's a cross country play here, 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:34.520 but for me, I think they're going to win the 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:35.960 game out right as well. I think this is a 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:38.800 little bit I think the whole the Browns could be 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:41.480 better without Odell Beckham Junior talk is silly, like I 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:43.880 think that, you know, I just I don't like it. 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:46.280 So even without the weather, I like the Raiders here 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.599 as well because I do think that this is just 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:51.279 a game that they're gonna be able to generally speaking, 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.560 keep tight, and I have confidence in them being able 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:56.040 to pull it to pull it out in the end. 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:57.479 I'd like it a little more if I could get 0:06:57.760 --> 0:07:00.520 over three correct, but I do think they're gonna pull 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:02.360 it out regards to the win, so I'm gonna write 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:04.760 that one in it. It was my fourth pick for 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:06.880 this week in terms of content, so I like it. 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:09.200 So Raiders getting two and a half, there's a good start, 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:12.720 good start, We like the first ride. Let me just 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:16.560 check because I think the Let me check what our 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:20.720 bet analyzer says about it against the spread, and it 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:24.600 looks like it is pretty split. I've got sixty all right, 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:28.040 sixty one percent of our experts are taking the Raiders 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:32.080 at two point five, so it has not moved from there. 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:33.840 I was wondering whether or not the spread was gonna move, 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:35.920 but at two and a half, we've got sixty one 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.440 percent behind us, so that's always a good sign, all right, 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:42.240 this one. I'm really interested, Matt in what you think 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:44.680 of this one, because I'm looking at our bet analyzer 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:46.880 and it's actually one of the more heavily picked games 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:50.840 right now the other way. But for me, I know 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.600 it's a divisional game. I know one of the teams 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:57.040 is undefeated, but I've got the Ravens coming off a 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.200 bye here, and I feel really good at this This 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:04.840 is finally the spot to sell the Steelers. Remember last year, 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:07.800 I think it was last year when they destroyed your Patriots. 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:09.880 I think that was them coming off a bye and 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:11.840 that was when they and the Pats were undefeated. I 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:13.320 think at that point and you were like, well, what's 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:15.120 gonna happen here? And I remember I took the Ravens 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:16.240 then I like them. 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:16.400 Then. 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:18.800 I think having off by I think Lamar Jackson has 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:21.160 been limited by this knee injury. I think giving him 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:23.840 a week to sort of get better is good. I 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:26.800 actually think mark ingram out is probably better for this 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.240 team because I think it means more JK. Dobbins, and 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:33.240 I think that that is very good for this team 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:35.440 to go forward because I just think that Dobbins at 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.760 this point is more explosive. He's gonna get more involved 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:41.000 in the passing game. I think this is really when 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.679 the Ravens are gonna show whose boss right now. I 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:45.959 think the loss of Devin Bush, by the way, especially 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:47.960 in the running game here, it's gonna hurt the Steelers. 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.000 It's finally going to show itself again. They came out 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:51.719 like a house on fire last week, but then you 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.640 saw the Titans just basically dominated the rest of that game. 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:58.040 So for me, I don't love the hook more than 0:08:58.160 --> 0:08:59.880 you know three. But I think the Ravens are going 0:08:59.920 --> 0:09:01.240 to win this game, and I think they're gonna win 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:01.680 in Handley. 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:03.920 So you can't see because we're not actually looking at 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:06.319 each other as take video, but I've been nodding my 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:09.040 head the entire time. Okay, so this is my third play, 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.839 so put it in pen and I agree with every 0:09:12.880 --> 0:09:16.200 point you made. I think this is if you are 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:19.520 a Daily Juice listener. I talked about this game when 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:21.840 I gave out the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division, 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.280 because I believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:26.280 the North, but they're going to lose this game here 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:29.360 against the Ravens. I think they're gonna split home and road, 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:32.760 home and home. Basically. I I think Pittsburgh wins in Pittsburgh. 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:35.400 I think Baltimore wins in Baltimore. Ye. I think that 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:38.000 Jackson has been held back and they've been keeping him 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:41.280 in check their play calling, keeping him in check due 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.319 to the knee injury basically leading up to this game. 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:47.640 This is time to let Lamar Jackson go. And I 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:49.880 just think this defense is going to be able to 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:51.920 shut down this offense for Pittsburgh. Look. I like the 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.559 Pittsburgh offense. I just don't think it's as explosive as 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.120 everybody thinks it is. And I mean Claypool's come out 0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:00.360 of kind of nowhere here and become this incredible weapon. So, 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:02.400 I mean hardball is off of a bye. I believe 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:04.360 the number is nine and three against the spread off 0:10:04.360 --> 0:10:04.720 of a bye. 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:06.040 That's right, Okay. 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:08.600 Something really stupid that he just him with extra time 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.760 is like Belichick with extra time. It's just And the 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:16.120 first line was six, okay, so it was Baltimore minus six. 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:18.560 All the money came in. This is the Black and 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:20.920 Blue Division. This is always a three point game one 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:24.320 way or the other. I know the hook there stinks. 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:26.439 It's a little bit dicey for that one reason. If 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:28.000 I bet it, when I do bet it, I'm probably 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:30.000 gonna buy the half a point because I think three 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.200 is a much much better number. It's the most expensive 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:34.160 thing to do at a sports book is to buy 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:35.680 it from three and a half to three. It's probably 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.080 mist one forty to go ahead and do it, but 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:41.160 I think it's worth it. I'll play it in the contest. 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:43.079 I'll lay the three and a half. With money, I'll 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.360 lay three. But I like the Ravens two. 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.720 Yeah, and again they these teams play close. That is 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:50.600 what they do. So I get when you see anything 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:52.280 over a field goal, it makes you nervous either way. 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:54.040 But I really think that they're gonna come out and 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:55.960 this is going to be their spot. They're gonna come 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:57.640 out and they're gonna be like, oh, do you do 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:00.400 you think that this is gonna be your division right now? 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:02.520 We're gonna show it off of by I just I 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:04.079 really liked it when I first looked at the game, 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.680 I'm not gonna lie. My first instinct was like, ooh, 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:08.440 because I have been honest. I was on the Steelers 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:10.600 last week. Man, I like them, you like the Titans. 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:12.640 I leaned towards the Steelers last week. 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:15.280 But you realized that Gezkowski is why that gave didn't 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:15.960 go to overtime. 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:16.640 That is that. 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:21.480 Hatred of My hatred of Guzkowski has just quadrupled, and 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:22.800 he is. 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:26.160 The poster boy for your anger in this betting season. 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:30.120 That game actually made me like the Steelers a little 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:32.040 less like I mean their offense. Of course, you've got 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:35.040 the three wide receivers. But Ben doesn't look you know, 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:38.360 intimidating right now with where he is. He just kind 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:39.000 of think. 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:41.360 I think that's why when you saw the reaction of 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.240 Roethlisberger when he when the miskick happened, I think he 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:46.920 knew in overtime they were gonna lose. Yeah, I think 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.800 he knew all everything was going against them, the momentum, 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.000 everything was going to the Titans. All you needed was 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:54.960 Gaskowski to make that forty eight yard kick, which he 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:58.360 does not so and that gave the game to the Steelers. 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:00.679 So I think this is a paper tiger six to 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:03.520 oh Steelers team, and I think they get their first loss. 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.120 I love it, all right, So this is weird, but 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:07.719 we are in agreement on our first two. Go to 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:08.640 youre next one, all right? 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:10.840 One in three are off the board for me already 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:14.240 here on my list Number two is. Look, I get 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.079 why people are gonna go Matt the number stinks, and 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.880 you don't know what two is gonna do. But I 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:23.480 got a rookie quarterback going up against Aaron Donald. I'm 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.439 gonna bet. I don't care where this game is being 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.560 played on the moon. It doesn't matter to me. Rams 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:30.760 minus four and a half against two a tag of Valoa. 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.000 Given that defense, with one touchdown being given up in 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:37.040 the second half, that offensive line's not good for Miami. 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.319 Fitzpatrick got the football out fast, two was not gonna 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:42.680 do that. He's accurate, but he's not gonna be able 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.440 to read defenses the way that Fitzpatrick can read defenses. 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:47.640 He's not gonna have any time. He's gonna have Aaron 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.240 Donald in his lap the entire time. And they don't 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.920 want him to run because he's brittle. So he can't 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:54.959 even use his legs in his first start because he'll 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.880 get hit and break. So to me, look, I like 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:00.520 the Rams a lot more than most people do. I 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.440 know it's on the road. I like the Rams to 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.160 win this game by seven, and they may win it 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:06.920 by even more, maybe a complete blowout here. I know 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:08.760 it's a trap game because they've got a big game 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:11.480 coming up next week back at home. So people are saying, Oh, 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:13.920 they're gonna overlook the Dolphins. Okay, they might. 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:15.720 Now they have they have a buye Matt, Oh they. 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:17.600 Well think, well, yeah, but they have after but after 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.120 the bye, they've got a game against Seattle. Seattle, so 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.160 it's a big divisional game. But okay, find me going 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:24.720 into a bye. Maybe they want to stay in Miami 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:25.160 and party. 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.439 I don't know, but to me, but sometimes going into 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.679 a bye, by the way, like teams do look at 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:31.160 that and just sort of are like, all right, we 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.120 just got a last one. We just got to get there. 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:35.280 And their head is in the game. I get it ahead. 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:37.120 So sometimes they can but I or they can just 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:38.880 say less it's on load because we got to weak off. No, 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:41.040 we won't worry about it. I just I'm taking this. 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.600 This entire pick is on the Rams defense going up 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:45.800 against a rookie quarterback, and I just think they're going 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.000 to destroy Tua. It's gonna be a bad game for Tua. 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:52.280 Okay, So I I definitely am not. Basically, this was 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.960 a game where I don't have a lean, mainly because 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.079 I don't. I mean, are you confident, Matt, Like, how 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.880 do we know what to expect from Tua in this game? 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.280 Like I other than of course whatever you've seen from 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:04.439 him in Coe. 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:06.360 Because they're being forced to play him. I don't think 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.680 this was the plan. I think this was all because 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.559 Dolphin fans are mad because Justin Herbert looks legitimate and 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:13.200 they're worried they pick the wrong quarterback. 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:15.200 No, no, no, no, no no. This had to have 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:17.640 been the plan because they are doing so much better. 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:19.760 So you're telling me the plan was to start against 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:21.720 Aaron Donald the career of two attag of a looa 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:25.320 mister brittle. The plan was to have him start against 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:26.240 the La Rams. 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:28.720 I think the plan was to have him start after 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:30.760 the bye. That's exactly what I think it was. I 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.440 think they were gonna because otherwise, First of all, if 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:35.960 you're a Dolphins fan right now, you can't be mad 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:38.640 at what you got. You they're in contention for the division. 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:40.960 Fitzpatrick is playing well, there's no so. 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:42.600 You can don't want to be there. They want to 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:46.320 lose what but why because they don't want They because 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.000 Fitzpatrick is a guy. If he plays well, he could 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:50.720 have a stake to the job, if. 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.280 Not long term and at least for one more. 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.120 Year if they go to the playoffs. I mean that's 0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:56.920 the problem. They want to lose and they want to 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:58.880 see what they've gotten to and they've gotten tons of 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:01.600 pressure because the numberumber one pick has been great, and 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:03.840 the number six pick has been great, and the number 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:04.800 five pick hasn't played. 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:08.280 Okay, So just to make sure I fully understand this, 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:12.160 your theory is that they are making this switch to 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:16.280 Tua because Dolphins fans are outraged because of the fact 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.440 that the other rookie quarterbacks look good. Yes, and they 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:19.240 should be playing to it. 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.760 Yes. And I believe that they know that Fitzpatrick is 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:23.560 the short term deal and they want to know what 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:25.800 they've got, so they're going to go ahead. Because if 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:29.000 they were actually planning on doing this, they didn't tell Fitzpatrick, 0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:32.560 which is basically malpractice. Yeah, so he didn't he didn't know. 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:35.720 He was crying, he was so upset about it. My 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.840 heart's broken. I've been benched before, but never like this. 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.120 I mean, that's why that's why I think it was. 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.000 I agree that didn't tell him, but I think that's 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:45.040 why it was their plan, no matter how well he played, 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:46.920 because he was playing as well as you know, he 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:48.720 was the good fits here for a couple of weeks 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:52.120 and they were legitimately in contention. I can't seem well anyway. 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:53.760 Look, they've got to ever fence right now. This number 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:56.760 one in the NFL in third down conversion. You get off, 0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.000 They get off the field like crazy right now in Miami. 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:01.160 Their defense is hard to go up against that The 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:04.200 forty nine ers couldn't do anything against their defense. I 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:06.920 just think that they believe that they have a playoff 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:08.800 caliber team, and that's not really what they wanted to 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:10.600 go ahead and do. So they say, all right, if 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.360 we're gonna go to the playoffs, let's play Tua because 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.640 maybe we do have something here, and let's see what 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:17.960 Tua can do. I just can't believe they're going up 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:20.400 against one of the top four, top five defenses in 0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:23.120 the NFL and they're choosing to start him in this 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:27.240 type of environment where their offensive line doesn't block very well. Okay, look, 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:29.000 I could be dead wrong, but I'm telling you this. 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.360 I'm gonna say this. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back starting for 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.440 this football team within three weeks. 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:38.600 Oh my goodness, your Dolphins takes are hot right now. 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.320 All right, So here's the deal. I'm not gonna take 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:42.560 that one off the table. I'm not gonna put it 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.920 in yet because I don't have a good line, a 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:49.240 good lean on the game. Part of me but everything 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:52.240 you're saying makes sense. Two things make me nervous. One 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:56.400 is again the cross country trip to Miami on a 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.400 short week makes me a little nervous. Number two is 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:02.480 I don't like variables Matt like I do like when 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.400 there is somebody who I haven't like. I will tell 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.400