Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can
Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. With me
Speaker 1: as he is every week is Matt Perrault. You can
Speaker 1: find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt Matt. What's
Speaker 1: going on?
Speaker 2: Well, we are into the middle part of the year. Now,
Speaker 2: we gotta get our butts in gear this week.
Speaker 1: Dan, God that last week. You know, beats happen both ways.
Speaker 1: You know, you get lucky sometimes, you know. But we
Speaker 1: turned a four and one week into a two and
Speaker 1: three week in a way that was just killer. With
Speaker 1: the Brown's missing the extra point to win by three.
Speaker 1: We had him at laying three and a half and
Speaker 1: the Seahawks just basically doing the fact. I'm glad they
Speaker 1: lost that game. I'm glad because they should have covered
Speaker 1: the three and a half points spread. But we'll get
Speaker 1: into all of that. There are some games that we
Speaker 1: both like, although we have not talked about it as
Speaker 1: we did last week, we decided to you know what,
Speaker 1: no Leans even beforehand. We're gonna be fresh when we
Speaker 1: get into this. Hopefully we are on the same side
Speaker 1: of games because we are not always a couple of
Speaker 1: things before we get into the week eight slate number
Speaker 1: one discord. If you listen to the Daily Juice, which
Speaker 1: you should, you have probably heard about this. You may
Speaker 1: be in it already. Last I checked, we had I
Speaker 1: don't know, over six hundred and fifty people in there already.
Speaker 1: It's just like a chat. Okay, you come in. There
Speaker 1: are different channels to talk about whatever you want. You
Speaker 1: can talk about any sport you want. Matt and I
Speaker 1: are in there popping in, we're talking, we're giving plays,
Speaker 1: things like that. But generally it's just the community for
Speaker 1: other people who are on betting pros who want to
Speaker 1: talk about various things. That's at bettingpros dot com slash chat.
Speaker 1: You can join, no fee, you don't have to be
Speaker 1: a subscriber or anything like that. Second, our prop bet
Speaker 1: sheet sheet, by the way, Matt, that's what we're calling
Speaker 1: it now, just because I know, all right, that's what
Speaker 1: that's the name we have settled on prop bet sheet sheet.
Speaker 1: That's at bettingpros dot com slash props. You can go there.
Speaker 1: That is going to compare consensus projections to props that
Speaker 1: are available in the market, and it gives you recommendations
Speaker 1: based on the delta between the consensus projections and the
Speaker 1: actual projections given out by the various sportsbook Now, this
Speaker 1: has just launched, so we are still kind of, you know,
Speaker 1: working through it, but it's a really interesting tool. We
Speaker 1: should go check it out again. Bettingpros dot com slash Props.
Speaker 1: As always, we are going to get into every game
Speaker 1: on this week's late but as we kind of did,
Speaker 1: let's recap last week very quickly. Matt and I went
Speaker 1: two and three, two bad beats. We are now nineteen
Speaker 1: and sixteen on the season, fifty four point three percent. Okay, Now,
Speaker 1: if you are a regular sports gambler, that's Good's that
Speaker 1: you're beating what you want to do. But where we
Speaker 1: are in the DK Championship is not exactly where we
Speaker 1: want to be. We are let me see what the
Speaker 1: number is. I can't find where we are exactly, but
Speaker 1: we are somewhere in the high two hundredths of the
Speaker 1: six hundred and ninety one. So we're in the top half.
Speaker 1: But we've got a long way to go.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: The people who are cashing are I think only two games.
Speaker 1: I think they might be between two and three games.
Speaker 1: Ahead of us, Matt, but it's it's mostly people who
Speaker 1: haven't who have already taken a bye, so their percentages
Speaker 1: kind of in between two and three games ahead. So
Speaker 1: we have not buried ourselves by any meanings, but we've
Speaker 1: got to get going with a four and one week
Speaker 1: or a five on one week. So last week we
Speaker 1: just had the wrong side on that Pats game against
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, completely wrong side, missed on that one,
Speaker 1: and we lost on the Browns lanth three and a
Speaker 1: half to the Bengals on the missed extra point, and
Speaker 1: we lost on the Seahawks laying three and a half
Speaker 1: to the Cardinals on about eight different ways that the
Speaker 1: Seahawks have covered that game. Now, we did win on
Speaker 1: one of the games that we both really like to start,
Speaker 1: the Panthers getting seven and a half from the Saints,
Speaker 1: and we also said that we were not gonna change
Speaker 1: based on our picks unless something happened. Well, we decided
Speaker 1: because we are liars essentially to get off the Packers
Speaker 1: laying three and a half to the Texans was the
Speaker 1: game that Matt didn't love at the time that we
Speaker 1: picked it. He was initially on the other side, but
Speaker 1: we decided to get off that because Aaron Jones was
Speaker 1: not gonna play, and we Matt came around to what
Speaker 1: my topic was, which was the Bucks laying two and
Speaker 1: a half to the Raiders, which hit anyway, so a
Speaker 1: distinction without a difference. So anyway, I've got it now
Speaker 1: two hundred and ninety third out of six hundred eighty nine.
Speaker 1: So we need a big week here, Matt, are you ready?
Speaker 1: Are you ready?
Speaker 2: If hear that, I am, I'm just gonna I'm still
Speaker 2: reeling from your vocabulary the delta. Wow, you're dropping big,
Speaker 2: big words here.
Speaker 1: My friend correct, I read words.
Speaker 2: Podcast or source.
Speaker 1: I like see words. Good. All right, so let's get
Speaker 1: into it, Matt, who is your number one picker? Man,
Speaker 1: I'm so nervous because I'm so terrified because I have
Speaker 1: like five games that I'm like, I could deal with
Speaker 1: these games. I'm terrified we're gonna be on the wrong side.
Speaker 1: So go ahead, stars off.
Speaker 2: Welcome to weather guys. Yes, this is the point of
Speaker 2: the year where you must be and you should be.
Speaker 2: Literally before you put a single dollar down in any bet,
Speaker 2: you have to look at the weather forecast. The worst
Speaker 2: weather game of the weekend is going to be in Cleveland, Ohio. Yep,
Speaker 2: we're having thirty to forty miles per hour wins. We're
Speaker 2: having cold temperatures. You might say, wow, that's a bad
Speaker 2: deal for the team from Las Vegas. No, this is
Speaker 2: a run team. This is a power football team. This
Speaker 2: is a nasty football team. And they dink and dunk
Speaker 2: with the best of them. They don't throw deep at all.
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield does not have Odo Beckham Junior. I'm catching
Speaker 2: two and a half points from the Raiders. Raiders will
Speaker 2: win this game outright. Raiders plus two and a half
Speaker 2: is my top pick of the week.
Speaker 1: Okay, so, first of all, I saw you tweeting with
Speaker 1: I think Kevin Roth. Is that right?
Speaker 2: Correct?
Speaker 1: From right? Yes, He, by the way, is a great
Speaker 1: He's a you know, if you play daily fantasy sports,
Speaker 1: if you bet on sports, he's a great followup because
Speaker 1: he's great with the weather. And Yeah, there are I
Speaker 1: think three games where Wind and you and I talk
Speaker 1: a lot about it. It's like the one thing that
Speaker 1: you're worried about when it comes to sports gambling is
Speaker 1: Wind with football. That's a big difference. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: ahead and write this one in Matt because I'm on
Speaker 1: that side as well. Doesn't even even without the weather, Matt,
Speaker 1: I think this is a spot for the Raiders. I mean,
Speaker 1: the Raiders I think are a couple things. Number One,
Speaker 1: they're a better team than I think the public gives
Speaker 1: them credit for because I think right they have a
Speaker 1: stigma of what they were kind of last year, and
Speaker 1: just generally speaking, they're not a bad team. Their defense
Speaker 1: not great as of right now, but they had a
Speaker 1: lot of injuries last week. They had the whole offensive
Speaker 1: line thing preventing them from practicing, which is why the
Speaker 1: Bucks I thought were needs to play. And the Bucks
Speaker 1: are really really good team. I get that they're coming,
Speaker 1: you know, to there. It's a cross country play here,
Speaker 1: but for me, I think they're going to win the
Speaker 1: game out right as well. I think this is a
Speaker 1: little bit I think the whole the Browns could be
Speaker 1: better without Odell Beckham Junior talk is silly, like I
Speaker 1: think that, you know, I just I don't like it.
Speaker 1: So even without the weather, I like the Raiders here
Speaker 1: as well because I do think that this is just
Speaker 1: a game that they're gonna be able to generally speaking,
Speaker 1: keep tight, and I have confidence in them being able
Speaker 1: to pull it to pull it out in the end.
Speaker 1: I'd like it a little more if I could get
Speaker 1: over three correct, but I do think they're gonna pull
Speaker 1: it out regards to the win, so I'm gonna write
Speaker 1: that one in it. It was my fourth pick for
Speaker 1: this week in terms of content, so I like it.
Speaker 1: So Raiders getting two and a half, there's a good start,
Speaker 1: good start, We like the first ride. Let me just
Speaker 1: check because I think the Let me check what our
Speaker 1: bet analyzer says about it against the spread, and it
Speaker 1: looks like it is pretty split. I've got sixty all right,
Speaker 1: sixty one percent of our experts are taking the Raiders
Speaker 1: at two point five, so it has not moved from there.
Speaker 1: I was wondering whether or not the spread was gonna move,
Speaker 1: but at two and a half, we've got sixty one
Speaker 1: percent behind us, so that's always a good sign, all right,
Speaker 1: this one. I'm really interested, Matt in what you think
Speaker 1: of this one, because I'm looking at our bet analyzer
Speaker 1: and it's actually one of the more heavily picked games
Speaker 1: right now the other way. But for me, I know
Speaker 1: it's a divisional game. I know one of the teams
Speaker 1: is undefeated, but I've got the Ravens coming off a
Speaker 1: bye here, and I feel really good at this This
Speaker 1: is finally the spot to sell the Steelers. Remember last year,
Speaker 1: I think it was last year when they destroyed your Patriots.
Speaker 1: I think that was them coming off a bye and
Speaker 1: that was when they and the Pats were undefeated. I
Speaker 1: think at that point and you were like, well, what's
Speaker 1: gonna happen here? And I remember I took the Ravens
Speaker 1: then I like them.
Speaker 2: Then.
Speaker 1: I think having off by I think Lamar Jackson has
Speaker 1: been limited by this knee injury. I think giving him
Speaker 1: a week to sort of get better is good. I
Speaker 1: actually think mark ingram out is probably better for this
Speaker 1: team because I think it means more JK. Dobbins, and
Speaker 1: I think that that is very good for this team
Speaker 1: to go forward because I just think that Dobbins at
Speaker 1: this point is more explosive. He's gonna get more involved
Speaker 1: in the passing game. I think this is really when
Speaker 1: the Ravens are gonna show whose boss right now. I
Speaker 1: think the loss of Devin Bush, by the way, especially
Speaker 1: in the running game here, it's gonna hurt the Steelers.
Speaker 1: It's finally going to show itself again. They came out
Speaker 1: like a house on fire last week, but then you
Speaker 1: saw the Titans just basically dominated the rest of that game.
Speaker 1: So for me, I don't love the hook more than
Speaker 1: you know three. But I think the Ravens are going
Speaker 1: to win this game, and I think they're gonna win
Speaker 1: in Handley.
Speaker 2: So you can't see because we're not actually looking at
Speaker 2: each other as take video, but I've been nodding my
Speaker 2: head the entire time. Okay, so this is my third play,
Speaker 2: so put it in pen and I agree with every
Speaker 2: point you made. I think this is if you are
Speaker 2: a Daily Juice listener. I talked about this game when
Speaker 2: I gave out the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division,
Speaker 2: because I believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win
Speaker 2: the North, but they're going to lose this game here
Speaker 2: against the Ravens. I think they're gonna split home and road,
Speaker 2: home and home. Basically. I I think Pittsburgh wins in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: I think Baltimore wins in Baltimore. Ye. I think that
Speaker 2: Jackson has been held back and they've been keeping him
Speaker 2: in check their play calling, keeping him in check due
Speaker 2: to the knee injury basically leading up to this game.
Speaker 2: This is time to let Lamar Jackson go. And I
Speaker 2: just think this defense is going to be able to
Speaker 2: shut down this offense for Pittsburgh. Look. I like the
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh offense. I just don't think it's as explosive as
Speaker 2: everybody thinks it is. And I mean Claypool's come out
Speaker 2: of kind of nowhere here and become this incredible weapon. So,
Speaker 2: I mean hardball is off of a bye. I believe
Speaker 2: the number is nine and three against the spread off
Speaker 2: of a bye.
Speaker 1: That's right, Okay.
Speaker 2: Something really stupid that he just him with extra time
Speaker 2: is like Belichick with extra time. It's just And the
Speaker 2: first line was six, okay, so it was Baltimore minus six.
Speaker 2: All the money came in. This is the Black and
Speaker 2: Blue Division. This is always a three point game one
Speaker 2: way or the other. I know the hook there stinks.
Speaker 2: It's a little bit dicey for that one reason. If
Speaker 2: I bet it, when I do bet it, I'm probably
Speaker 2: gonna buy the half a point because I think three
Speaker 2: is a much much better number. It's the most expensive
Speaker 2: thing to do at a sports book is to buy
Speaker 2: it from three and a half to three. It's probably
Speaker 2: mist one forty to go ahead and do it, but
Speaker 2: I think it's worth it. I'll play it in the contest.
Speaker 2: I'll lay the three and a half. With money, I'll
Speaker 2: lay three. But I like the Ravens two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again they these teams play close. That is
Speaker 1: what they do. So I get when you see anything
Speaker 1: over a field goal, it makes you nervous either way.
Speaker 1: But I really think that they're gonna come out and
Speaker 1: this is going to be their spot. They're gonna come
Speaker 1: out and they're gonna be like, oh, do you do
Speaker 1: you think that this is gonna be your division right now?
Speaker 1: We're gonna show it off of by I just I
Speaker 1: really liked it when I first looked at the game,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie. My first instinct was like, ooh,
Speaker 1: because I have been honest. I was on the Steelers
Speaker 1: last week. Man, I like them, you like the Titans.
Speaker 1: I leaned towards the Steelers last week.
Speaker 2: But you realized that Gezkowski is why that gave didn't
Speaker 2: go to overtime.
Speaker 1: That is that.
Speaker 2: Hatred of My hatred of Guzkowski has just quadrupled, and
Speaker 2: he is.
Speaker 1: The poster boy for your anger in this betting season.
Speaker 1: That game actually made me like the Steelers a little
Speaker 1: less like I mean their offense. Of course, you've got
Speaker 1: the three wide receivers. But Ben doesn't look you know,
Speaker 1: intimidating right now with where he is. He just kind
Speaker 1: of think.
Speaker 2: I think that's why when you saw the reaction of
Speaker 2: Roethlisberger when he when the miskick happened, I think he
Speaker 2: knew in overtime they were gonna lose. Yeah, I think
Speaker 2: he knew all everything was going against them, the momentum,
Speaker 2: everything was going to the Titans. All you needed was
Speaker 2: Gaskowski to make that forty eight yard kick, which he
Speaker 2: does not so and that gave the game to the Steelers.
Speaker 2: So I think this is a paper tiger six to
Speaker 2: oh Steelers team, and I think they get their first loss.
Speaker 1: I love it, all right, So this is weird, but
Speaker 1: we are in agreement on our first two. Go to
Speaker 1: youre next one, all right?
Speaker 2: One in three are off the board for me already
Speaker 2: here on my list Number two is. Look, I get
Speaker 2: why people are gonna go Matt the number stinks, and
Speaker 2: you don't know what two is gonna do. But I
Speaker 2: got a rookie quarterback going up against Aaron Donald. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna bet. I don't care where this game is being
Speaker 2: played on the moon. It doesn't matter to me. Rams
Speaker 2: minus four and a half against two a tag of Valoa.
Speaker 2: Given that defense, with one touchdown being given up in
Speaker 2: the second half, that offensive line's not good for Miami.
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick got the football out fast, two was not gonna
Speaker 2: do that. He's accurate, but he's not gonna be able
Speaker 2: to read defenses the way that Fitzpatrick can read defenses.
Speaker 2: He's not gonna have any time. He's gonna have Aaron
Speaker 2: Donald in his lap the entire time. And they don't
Speaker 2: want him to run because he's brittle. So he can't
Speaker 2: even use his legs in his first start because he'll
Speaker 2: get hit and break. So to me, look, I like
Speaker 2: the Rams a lot more than most people do. I
Speaker 2: know it's on the road. I like the Rams to
Speaker 2: win this game by seven, and they may win it
Speaker 2: by even more, maybe a complete blowout here. I know
Speaker 2: it's a trap game because they've got a big game
Speaker 2: coming up next week back at home. So people are saying, Oh,
Speaker 2: they're gonna overlook the Dolphins. Okay, they might.
Speaker 1: Now they have they have a buye Matt, Oh they.
Speaker 2: Well think, well, yeah, but they have after but after
Speaker 2: the bye, they've got a game against Seattle. Seattle, so
Speaker 2: it's a big divisional game. But okay, find me going
Speaker 2: into a bye. Maybe they want to stay in Miami
Speaker 2: and party.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but to me, but sometimes going into
Speaker 1: a bye, by the way, like teams do look at
Speaker 1: that and just sort of are like, all right, we
Speaker 1: just got a last one. We just got to get there.
Speaker 1: And their head is in the game. I get it ahead.
Speaker 2: So sometimes they can but I or they can just
Speaker 2: say less it's on load because we got to weak off. No,
Speaker 2: we won't worry about it. I just I'm taking this.
Speaker 2: This entire pick is on the Rams defense going up
Speaker 2: against a rookie quarterback, and I just think they're going
Speaker 2: to destroy Tua. It's gonna be a bad game for Tua.
Speaker 1: Okay, So I I definitely am not. Basically, this was
Speaker 1: a game where I don't have a lean, mainly because
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean, are you confident, Matt, Like, how
Speaker 1: do we know what to expect from Tua in this game?
Speaker 1: Like I other than of course whatever you've seen from
Speaker 1: him in Coe.
Speaker 2: Because they're being forced to play him. I don't think
Speaker 2: this was the plan. I think this was all because
Speaker 2: Dolphin fans are mad because Justin Herbert looks legitimate and
Speaker 2: they're worried they pick the wrong quarterback.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no no. This had to have
Speaker 1: been the plan because they are doing so much better.
Speaker 2: So you're telling me the plan was to start against
Speaker 2: Aaron Donald the career of two attag of a looa
Speaker 2: mister brittle. The plan was to have him start against
Speaker 2: the La Rams.
Speaker 1: I think the plan was to have him start after
Speaker 1: the bye. That's exactly what I think it was. I
Speaker 1: think they were gonna because otherwise, First of all, if
Speaker 1: you're a Dolphins fan right now, you can't be mad
Speaker 1: at what you got. You they're in contention for the division.
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick is playing well, there's no so.
Speaker 2: You can don't want to be there. They want to
Speaker 2: lose what but why because they don't want They because
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick is a guy. If he plays well, he could
Speaker 2: have a stake to the job, if.
Speaker 1: Not long term and at least for one more.
Speaker 2: Year if they go to the playoffs. I mean that's
Speaker 2: the problem. They want to lose and they want to
Speaker 2: see what they've gotten to and they've gotten tons of
Speaker 2: pressure because the numberumber one pick has been great, and
Speaker 2: the number six pick has been great, and the number
Speaker 2: five pick hasn't played.
Speaker 1: Okay, So just to make sure I fully understand this,
Speaker 1: your theory is that they are making this switch to
Speaker 1: Tua because Dolphins fans are outraged because of the fact
Speaker 1: that the other rookie quarterbacks look good. Yes, and they
Speaker 1: should be playing to it.
Speaker 2: Yes. And I believe that they know that Fitzpatrick is
Speaker 2: the short term deal and they want to know what
Speaker 2: they've got, so they're going to go ahead. Because if
Speaker 2: they were actually planning on doing this, they didn't tell Fitzpatrick,
Speaker 2: which is basically malpractice. Yeah, so he didn't he didn't know.
Speaker 2: He was crying, he was so upset about it. My
Speaker 2: heart's broken. I've been benched before, but never like this.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's why that's why I think it was.
Speaker 1: I agree that didn't tell him, but I think that's
Speaker 1: why it was their plan, no matter how well he played,
Speaker 1: because he was playing as well as you know, he
Speaker 1: was the good fits here for a couple of weeks
Speaker 1: and they were legitimately in contention. I can't seem well anyway.
Speaker 2: Look, they've got to ever fence right now. This number
Speaker 2: one in the NFL in third down conversion. You get off,
Speaker 2: They get off the field like crazy right now in Miami.
Speaker 2: Their defense is hard to go up against that The
Speaker 2: forty nine ers couldn't do anything against their defense. I
Speaker 2: just think that they believe that they have a playoff
Speaker 2: caliber team, and that's not really what they wanted to
Speaker 2: go ahead and do. So they say, all right, if
Speaker 2: we're gonna go to the playoffs, let's play Tua because
Speaker 2: maybe we do have something here, and let's see what
Speaker 2: Tua can do. I just can't believe they're going up
Speaker 2: against one of the top four, top five defenses in
Speaker 2: the NFL and they're choosing to start him in this
Speaker 2: type of environment where their offensive line doesn't block very well. Okay, look,
Speaker 2: I could be dead wrong, but I'm telling you this.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say this. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back starting for
Speaker 2: this football team within three weeks.
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, your Dolphins takes are hot right now.
Speaker 1: All right, So here's the deal. I'm not gonna take
Speaker 1: that one off the table. I'm not gonna put it
Speaker 1: in yet because I don't have a good line, a
Speaker 1: good lean on the game. Part of me but everything
Speaker 1: you're saying makes sense. Two things make me nervous. One
Speaker 1: is again the cross country trip to Miami on a
Speaker 1: short week makes me a little nervous. Number two is
Speaker 1: I don't like variables Matt like I do like when
Speaker 1: there is somebody who I haven't like. I will tell
Speaker 1: you the truth. I thought, justin Herbert, if I knew
Speaker 1: that he was going to be starting early this year,
Speaker 1: I would have bet significant money that he would have
Speaker 1: been terrible because I did not think that he looked ready,
Speaker 1: and he's.
Speaker 2: Hard knocks proved it. He couldn't call a play. I
Speaker 2: mean he could take a snap under center. He couldn't
Speaker 2: take a snap under center at hard knock. So I
Speaker 2: mean what they showed us was that might have been
Speaker 2: sandbagging there, but they show that he wasn't ready.
Speaker 1: Well that's what I'm saying that I don't know what
Speaker 1: it's gonna look like when these rookies get on the
Speaker 1: field for the first time. So I don't hate it,
Speaker 1: I'm not off it. And seventy the line the consensus
Speaker 1: line is three and a half, but seventy one percent
Speaker 1: of experts are on the rams in this one, so
Speaker 1: that that certainly you know you're not alone in that,
Speaker 1: although I will say again I said that the Steelers
Speaker 1: were the other way. Seventy six percent are on the
Speaker 1: Steelers getting three and a half. I'm totally fine to
Speaker 1: fade that, yep. But yeah, that's I'm gonna put that
Speaker 1: one to maybe ket because I don't hate it. I
Speaker 1: had that one in a bucket of Matt can convince
Speaker 1: me if we're sort of there, But I definitely don't
Speaker 1: hate it. And I think if I had to pick
Speaker 1: a side, it would be with the Rams. That's what
Speaker 1: I had. So we'll put that one in the maybe categories.
Speaker 1: So not doing terrible, Okay. I'm interested to know how
Speaker 1: you feel about this game, and that is the Saints
Speaker 1: laying four and a half to the Bears in Chicago.
Speaker 1: Now there's gonna be wind in. This is one of
Speaker 1: the win games. I believe it is a.
Speaker 2: Right the games, the worst weather games.
Speaker 1: It's one of the worst weather games. I kind of feel,
Speaker 1: and I may be wrong, maybe it doesn't. I kind
Speaker 1: of feel number one it goes for the under. But
Speaker 1: I alan Robinson. I don't know if he's gonna play
Speaker 1: right now. He has missed practice. He's in the concussion protocol.
Speaker 1: He has missed practiced both days this week. If Alan
Speaker 1: Robinson doesn't play, who is getting the ball other than
Speaker 1: David Montgomery? I mean, is it Moody? Is Anthony Miller
Speaker 1: gonna play? Jimmy Cram This Bears offense, and you saw
Speaker 1: it on Monday night. And that's why I liked the
Speaker 1: Rams giving six and I picked it on the bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot Com in the platform. The Bears can't move the
Speaker 1: ball man, and the Saints can stop the run. They
Speaker 1: have a very solid run defense. So they think they're
Speaker 1: just going to rely on Dave Montgomery, whether it's passing
Speaker 1: the ball to the running backs, whether it's running the ball.
Speaker 1: I don't really see it happening. And the good thing
Speaker 1: about the wind is that what can you do in
Speaker 1: the wind. You can run the ball, and you can
Speaker 1: kind of dink and dunk. And that is all the
Speaker 1: Saints do right now with Drew Brees is dink and
Speaker 1: dunk their way to putting up thirty five points a
Speaker 1: game every single game. Michael Thomas Meanwhile, I'm not even
Speaker 1: expecting Michael Thomas or Emmanuel Senders to play. I don't care.
Speaker 1: But Michael Thomas has returned to practice right now. He
Speaker 1: may play. If he plays, I really like it at
Speaker 1: four and a half. Even if he doesn't, this is
Speaker 1: as much of a bet against the Bears right now
Speaker 1: as it is in favor of the Saints. So for me,
Speaker 1: I like the Saints laying four and a half on
Speaker 1: the road in Chicago.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I was really annoyed because I tease that game
Speaker 2: perfectly and if you know the pick in the end zone,
Speaker 2: I need two more points. They lost play fourteen. I
Speaker 2: tease it to twelve, and I just it was so
Speaker 2: frustrating because the interception that Nick Folls through in and
Speaker 2: the end zone was awful. The one he threw on
Speaker 2: the sideline was awful, and then he had a wide
Speaker 2: open receiver at the end of the game where if
Speaker 2: he just put the ball out there, it was an
Speaker 2: easy walking touchdown. He's just awful. Okay, He's just straight
Speaker 2: up awful. I I'm gonna this will be a maybe
Speaker 2: for me. I very much prefer the the Alvin Kamara
Speaker 2: prop bets on this game, So like, that's where I'm
Speaker 2: gonna be betting. Is Kamara like crazy? So I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna bet this game, but I am gonna bet the
Speaker 2: Kamara has a monster game doing I mean, having running
Speaker 2: and receiving yardage. This is his game, Okay. Yeah, And
Speaker 2: my only question is, you know, do we see any snow?
Speaker 2: Do we see anything wet? Any real wet? You know
Speaker 2: it's supposed to be wet, soggy, and windy, Okay, which
Speaker 2: is a really nasty combination to play football in. So
Speaker 2: I my initial thought when I started breaking down this
Speaker 2: game was to take the Bears at home getting four
Speaker 2: and a half points.
Speaker 1: Oh interesting, that was my initial Bears in your initial lead.
Speaker 2: But but as we as I went through looked at
Speaker 2: the injuries, and I looked at the defense. In running,
Speaker 2: you're you're aboute right about the Rams. Sorry, the Saints
Speaker 2: against the run, they are very good stopping the run.
Speaker 2: They're not great through the air, but if there's wind
Speaker 2: and rain, you're not throwing the ball very much. In
Speaker 2: Nick Fan, they can pass anyway, man, Like I mean,
Speaker 2: if Alan runs in Jimmy Graham looks like he's running
Speaker 2: in slow motion.
Speaker 1: He is still a great red zone threat when he's
Speaker 1: when you're at the end zone, great, he can still
Speaker 1: sort of wrestle that ball away. But other than that, no,
Speaker 1: and again Alan Robinson, he's a big deal right now.
Speaker 1: They have nobody else that wide. I mean, Tagan still
Speaker 1: plays football and he'll get more work if he's if
Speaker 1: you know. And they can't push it deep. They just
Speaker 1: can't in that weather. I mean, I just this just
Speaker 1: strikes me. And again, this is more of a spot
Speaker 1: where you sort of typically would be thinking about about
Speaker 1: the Bears. I mean, they're they're favored by four and
Speaker 1: a half at home, They're coming off and embarrassing loss.
Speaker 1: They're on a short week too, though, I mean, it's
Speaker 1: really it's just.
Speaker 2: Well, I think the idea of that not being able
Speaker 2: to score as accuratecause they scored three points in perfect
Speaker 2: conditions in Los Angeles, Okay, and that's a very good defense,
Speaker 2: like the Rams better than the Saints. But the Saints
Speaker 2: is not that far behind and the defensive lines out
Speaker 2: that far behind the Rams. So I I that's where
Speaker 2: I think it's the right sidecause it could be a
Speaker 2: seven to three, you know, it could be a ten
Speaker 2: to three victory.
Speaker 1: For I think. And the one thing that I will
Speaker 1: say is again, the Saints are essentially built for something
Speaker 1: where you can't push the ball downfield, that's how their
Speaker 1: entire offense works. They don't push the ball downfield on
Speaker 1: a good day, So what difference does it make it
Speaker 1: they can't do so here they'll find I mean, Peyton's
Speaker 1: gonna find creative ways to get Kamara in space, or
Speaker 1: they'll do something with you know.
Speaker 2: What, Taysom Hill's got to stop man this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're gonna see a lot of Tasom Hill in
Speaker 1: this game.
Speaker 2: That's absolutely.
Speaker 1: That is going to be obnoxious, but you are going
Speaker 1: to see it.
Speaker 2: But they're going to design plays and design runs, and
Speaker 2: they're gonna try to take advantage of Khalil Mack getting
Speaker 2: up the field and all the things that you think
Speaker 2: of what they're going to try to do, they're gonna do.
Speaker 2: I think it's in the maybe category.
Speaker 1: I okay, well, but that's fine, that's fine.
Speaker 2: It's possible. It's definitely possible. For all.
Speaker 1: Right, go to your next one.
Speaker 2: My next one is and I'm gonna kind of hold
Speaker 2: my nose here because I hate the number. But I'm
Speaker 2: gonna take Seattle laying three and a half here, and
Speaker 2: I think Seattle, I don't love this Seattle team. At
Speaker 2: the moment. I'm a little concerned about Seattle just because
Speaker 2: of their defense. But San Francisco is not as good
Speaker 2: as the Patriots made them look. Okay, that was just
Speaker 2: an awful performance for the Patriots. But I mean I
Speaker 2: look at Seattle's offense, I look at DK metcalf, I
Speaker 2: look at the way that Russell Wilson's playing. I just
Speaker 2: think that they were more talented team than San Francisco.
Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo is I mean, he threw he should have
Speaker 2: thrown at least two interceptions that game against the Patriots,
Speaker 2: and he just the balls were just straight up dropped
Speaker 2: or not played properly by the Patriots defense. Stefan Gilmour,
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with him. I think
Speaker 2: I think the trade talks are really bothering him, and
Speaker 2: he's just not mentally sharp right now, and that's a
Speaker 2: big concern. But to me, I'm only gonna lay three
Speaker 2: and a half points against San Francisco. I'm taking Seattle,
Speaker 2: all right.
Speaker 1: This is another game that I don't have a great
Speaker 1: lean one to the extent I go one way or
Speaker 1: the other. It is with the Seahawks, and the reason
Speaker 1: is the one with Deebo. Samuel is out for this game. Okay,
Speaker 1: so it's gonna be George Kittle and and for the
Speaker 1: Seahawks aren't terrible against tight ends, but Kittle's not. You
Speaker 1: can't consider Kittle like a normal tight end. The Seahawks
Speaker 1: are generally not good against the past. They can stop
Speaker 1: the run, though, And who's going to be running for
Speaker 1: the ball for the forty nine Ers. I don't really know.
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess to Michael Hasty and is Jack
Speaker 1: McKinnon actually going to get any carries? I don't really know.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks, meanwhile, can put a points on anyone. And
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers defense is not not what it
Speaker 1: what we thought it would be coming into the season
Speaker 1: with all the injuries. So I don't hate it. I
Speaker 1: don't love a divisional game, and I don't love that.
Speaker 1: I feel like Matt and maybe correct me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: I feel like you and I have not had a
Speaker 1: good read on the forty nine Ers for the most part.
Speaker 1: The one game that we had them in was was
Speaker 1: it they were getting three and a half from the
Speaker 1: Rams maybe.
Speaker 2: And they and the one that came out right, yeah
Speaker 2: tw weeks right, we had to.
Speaker 1: So that right, that was the one that we had
Speaker 1: we I feel like we take them every week. We
Speaker 1: didn't have them against the Patriots. We didn't have that one.
Speaker 1: You know, maybe that was the patriotswe didn't have well.
Speaker 1: But either way, I'm okay with it. I'm not crazy
Speaker 1: about it. It's a maybe right now. So there are
Speaker 1: none where I'm on the other side on this one.
Speaker 1: So that one, oddly enough, that is the most one
Speaker 1: sided game in our bet analyzer, and it is the Seahawks. Now,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are only laying three in the consensus line
Speaker 1: and so a little bit different, but that is the
Speaker 1: one that has the most. By the way, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure if I gave the numbers for the Saints, sixty
Speaker 1: six percent of experts to put in picks like the
Speaker 1: Saints at four and a half. So I'll put that
Speaker 1: one in the maybe. So we've we've gone through five picks.
Speaker 1: We've got two in and we've got three maybes, and
Speaker 1: we've got so if these are our five picks, we
Speaker 1: will live with it, which is a great sign already
Speaker 1: through five games. So here's my next pick. We'll get
Speaker 1: to and I you know what, Matt, when I look
Speaker 1: at this line, I feel like the line should be more,
Speaker 1: and so the fact that it isn't makes me concerned.
Speaker 1: And then I look at our bet and it is
Speaker 1: the game that experts are most split on, and that
Speaker 1: is the Colts laying two and a half to the Lions.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I get that it's in Detroit. I get that the
Speaker 1: we hate the Colts in a lot of ways. But
Speaker 1: you're basically telling me that the Colts, who are coming
Speaker 1: off a buye and are getting healthier. Darius Lennard is healthy,
Speaker 1: he's going to play Michael Pittman Junior, which this was
Speaker 1: the target the whole time, is probably gonna play Trey
Speaker 1: Burton has helped that offense coming in versus a Matt
Speaker 1: Patricia coach Lions team that's under a field goal. To me,
Speaker 1: this seems like an obvious spot for the Colts, but
Speaker 1: I do not. That's not what the you know, the
Speaker 1: market is saying. I from what I've looked at, the
Speaker 1: money is not coming in that way. So I must
Speaker 1: be missing something. Tell me what I'm missing.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you're missing anything, as much as
Speaker 2: you're trying to trust bad football teams, and you.
Speaker 1: Think that the Colts are a bad had football team
Speaker 1: right now, yeah, I don't think so. I I just
Speaker 1: isn't impressive. But their defense is legitimate.
Speaker 2: Okay, but the overall, you gotta play both sides, and
Speaker 2: I just I think in in the in the in
Speaker 2: the division that they're in, they can't just play defense.
Speaker 2: You gotta score.
Speaker 1: And that's true.
Speaker 2: I I just so I just don't think, you know,
Speaker 2: when you look at even in this game, I mean,
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna have to score in this game.
Speaker 2: I mean I think their defense is gonna give up
Speaker 2: some points.
Speaker 1: So I don't know how many points there. I mean
Speaker 1: maybe why are do you trust? I mean you you
Speaker 1: have faith in the Lions to.
Speaker 2: I just think I just think in terms of games
Speaker 2: like this, I look at who has the better quarterback? Right,
Speaker 2: it's better coaches and better quarterbacks, and the coaching side
Speaker 2: is probably a wash.
Speaker 1: But what what what what what is happening? The coaching
Speaker 1: side from against the Lions is a wash.
Speaker 2: I look, I'm not a frank right guy. I mean,
Speaker 2: I just I'm not, and I never have been. I
Speaker 2: just I think it's a great offensive mine, but I
Speaker 2: think he's got a bum quarterback. So I just I'm
Speaker 2: not really on that.
Speaker 1: Well to be clear, the quarterback does not impact the coaching.
Speaker 1: I mean, the coaching is the coaching.
Speaker 2: Correct, but the quarterback can't The coach can't do much
Speaker 2: with this quarterback. I mean they have tied their themselves
Speaker 2: to an anvil.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you know that if Todd Gurley
Speaker 1: had managed to fall down an inch earlier. Uh, the
Speaker 1: Lions lose to the Falcons last week?
Speaker 2: Right sure? Like like the Falcons were able to do.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Lions were able to do what you're
Speaker 2: supposed to do when you're given a break, go take
Speaker 2: advantage of it. They went right down the field and
Speaker 2: got a two point conversion. So I mean, look, I'm
Speaker 2: not saying you're wrong about this side. I'm just saying
Speaker 2: that I don't trust this Colts team to do just
Speaker 2: about anything right now. I missed on them. I thought
Speaker 2: they were going to be a contender to win the AFC.
Speaker 2: They're not even a contender to win the Vision.
Speaker 1: I agree with you there that they've been to me,
Speaker 1: it's mostly on Rivers. It's mostly because Rivers looks toast.
Speaker 1: I agree with that, But I do think that you
Speaker 1: give them by. I think you're gonna see so much
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor in this.
Speaker 2: Game, I dontake. I don't know if it's any good.
Speaker 1: I he Admittedly, I'm not going to deny that he
Speaker 1: has not looked great in the first several games.
Speaker 2: He looks like a running back who had way too
Speaker 2: many carries in college, which he did, and he hit
Speaker 2: the NFL and he doesn't have that half a second
Speaker 2: more speed you need to get away from the defenders
Speaker 2: that you've got, like with like a Jacob's right, didn't
Speaker 2: didn't get used at all in college, hit the NFL
Speaker 2: fresh as a daisy, and look what he's doing. I mean,
Speaker 2: I just think he was Wisconsin rides and drives their
Speaker 2: running backs into the ground, and I don't think this
Speaker 2: guy's got much left in the tank. It's really unfortunate
Speaker 2: because I love the kid in college.
Speaker 1: But I'm not willing to draw that conclusion from you know,
Speaker 1: a few games in the pros and the fact that
Speaker 1: he's had whatever.
Speaker 2: Runs into the line he hetside reads.
Speaker 1: You know him a fantasy man, all right. I'm I've
Speaker 1: been extremely frustrated in watching him what looks like run
Speaker 1: directly into his offensive fall down. I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think there's more to him,
Speaker 1: and I think that there go. I think he's somebody
Speaker 1: who probably needs like additional Don't give me Jordan Wilkins
Speaker 1: or Nai Minds anymore. Please give it to Taylor. Let him.
Speaker 1: Let me see what he can do with twenty carries
Speaker 1: as he gets warmed up and he beats them the
Speaker 1: defense little bit. But that's fine, It's okay. And again,
Speaker 1: you are not on the island. I am on the island,
Speaker 1: and I'm like, and I'm like planning my flag on
Speaker 1: this island, and I am willing to basically call it
Speaker 1: the Dan Harris Island. And that is because I am
Speaker 1: taking the Colts and I feel completely fine about it,
Speaker 1: and I appear to be the only one. So that's fine.
Speaker 1: We'll move that one off. That one because you don't
Speaker 1: like that game as much as you say, with like
Speaker 1: the Saints, if you had to pick between the two,
Speaker 1: the Saints thing four and a half, right, yeah, you
Speaker 1: would rather that one, yes, the way, So I'll put
Speaker 1: the Colts away. Go to your next game if you
Speaker 1: have any left that you like, just one more, okay,
Speaker 1: And this is this is the biggest.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty play of all Okay, in any other season,
Speaker 2: I would never, and I mean capitol n never pick
Speaker 2: this game. But I'm gonna lay nineteen and a half
Speaker 2: points and take the Casey Chiefs at home against the Jets.
Speaker 1: Oh oh my goodness. Okay, and here's why.
Speaker 2: Okay, the weather's gonna be awful. Okay, it's it's got
Speaker 2: the potential. It's right now, it's leaning towards that like
Speaker 2: orange yellow category. It may be okay by game time,
Speaker 2: we'll see, but it's still gonna be late October early
Speaker 2: November at Arrowhead Stadium. It's not really a great place
Speaker 2: to go and play. It's cold. But you've got a
Speaker 2: team in the Jets that are just done. That was
Speaker 2: their game last week. They had a chance to play
Speaker 2: the Bills. They had a chance to potentially win that
Speaker 2: game against the Bills, and they didn't do it. They
Speaker 2: are deflated, They demoralized, and I think the Chiefs are
Speaker 2: gonna run the ball down their throat and I just
Speaker 2: think they're gonna put up thirty thirty five points and
Speaker 2: win this thing thirty five to three.
Speaker 1: Okay, So that is the side I am on as well.
Speaker 2: Somehow, it was twenty one when it opened. It was
Speaker 2: back down because the numbers for twenty point favorites since
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty eight, teams that have been favored by twenty
Speaker 2: points or more are I believe, one and eight against
Speaker 2: the spread. So was this nineteen and a half? This
Speaker 2: is not twenty So let's blow that twenty point threshold.
Speaker 1: So you I mean, I worry slightly maybe about the
Speaker 1: the you know, last minute cover if it's basically pull everybody,
Speaker 1: of course, but I do like it because they the
Speaker 1: Jets are not going to be able to stop the
Speaker 1: Chiefs under any part of their game. You know, Le'Veon
Speaker 1: Bell is going to score at least one, if not
Speaker 1: two touchdowns in a revenge game, and the Jets can't
Speaker 1: put up real points on anybody. So for me, I
Speaker 1: really don't dislike this game. And there's one additional reason
Speaker 1: why I kind of like it in this contest, Matt.
Speaker 1: It's because I don't think it's going to be heavily picked.
Speaker 1: I think people are going to take the points with
Speaker 1: the Jets. What if you look at the way it's
Speaker 1: broken down, the the you know, the value plays, now
Speaker 1: that we've gotten into it a little bit, the most
Speaker 1: heavily picked side are often the value plays that I've
Speaker 1: seen like sometimes you're like, wow, that's a really public play.
Speaker 1: That seems to be what it is doing in the beginning.
Speaker 1: Especially lately, I feel like the people who are in
Speaker 1: this contest, or at least the people who are doing
Speaker 1: well in the contest, are taking the value plays. So
Speaker 1: I think it's a little contrarian here to do it,
Speaker 1: which is why I actually like it for the contest. So,
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if we could put it in.
Speaker 1: We could just put it in. It's okay with me,
Speaker 1: all right, whatever, Yeah, let's just put it in. Chiefs
Speaker 1: laying nineteen and a half to the Jets. Man, where
Speaker 1: are we twenty twenty? Okay?
Speaker 2: Right? Any other year, There's no way I would ever.
Speaker 2: I would lay the Jets every single time, just blindly
Speaker 2: bet it. You give me nineteen points, twenty points, I'm
Speaker 2: betting the dog every single time. But this is just
Speaker 2: a very unique circumstances, and you up a great point.
Speaker 2: The Le'Veon Bell revenge bleep U factor is high in
Speaker 2: this game.
Speaker 1: What's the prop? We are going to look up the prop?
Speaker 1: I'm Leveon Bell squares a touchdown and you are going
Speaker 1: we are going to tell people.
Speaker 2: To bet it might be like minus one twenty. I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm serious, it might not even be like plus money.
Speaker 2: Normally it's like plus four hundred for an indivital touchdown,
Speaker 2: Like you have to lay juice, lay down juice to
Speaker 2: bet Le'Veon bell because they're gonna force feed in that
Speaker 2: football every time in the red zone.
Speaker 1: Seventy percent of experts are on the Chiefs, like nineteen
Speaker 1: and a half bet. That's crazy. Okay, So that's it
Speaker 1: for your game. So look, we'll put in the Raiders
Speaker 1: getting two and a half from the Browns, the Ravens
Speaker 1: laying three and a half points to the Steelers, and
Speaker 1: the gross Chiefs laying nineteen and a half points to
Speaker 1: the Jets. So those are our three that will put in.
Speaker 1: That's fine, and you're done with the games that you.
Speaker 2: Like, Yeah, that's it for me.
Speaker 1: Okay. So I don't love any of these remaining games.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw them out and let's talk through them
Speaker 1: and see if we like any others. Other than that,
Speaker 1: We've got three that are right now on the table
Speaker 1: that we don't hate. So we're gonna have picks this week.
Speaker 1: We'll be Okay, how do you feel about the Eagles
Speaker 1: laying seven and a half to the Ben Denucci led
Speaker 1: Cowboys in Philadelphia.
Speaker 2: I hate the hook. Yeah, if it was seven, I
Speaker 2: would say yes, But I don't like the seven and
Speaker 2: a half. I just feel like that's a little bit
Speaker 2: too heavy. And I mean, look the Cowboys offense. I
Speaker 2: don't know what. He didn't look good when he came
Speaker 2: in for for Andy Dalton. He didn't look good.
Speaker 1: So now he's got a week to prepare to get better.
Speaker 1: It's a little different and the offensive line is healthier,
Speaker 1: so that will help. But I can't have faith in
Speaker 1: bend to Nucci. I don't love the game at at all,
Speaker 1: so I'm not I don't think I like it more
Speaker 1: than the rest of our games. If I lean one way,
Speaker 1: even with the hook, I still like the Eagles.
Speaker 2: But if we're going primetime games, I would prefer that
Speaker 2: the Bucks laying ten and a half.
Speaker 1: I don't think that game either. By the way, there's
Speaker 1: the COVID concerns right now with their offensive line going on,
Speaker 1: so that's fine. Interesting. The consensus line is up to
Speaker 1: eight and a half for this Eagles game, and still
Speaker 1: are experts Seventy six percent are picking Eagles, but I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't.
Speaker 2: You know that's gonna crash come game day, by the way,
Speaker 2: because because Dallas Cowboys money will come in like crazy,
Speaker 2: you might be able to get that in seven closer
Speaker 2: to game time, the Cowboys fans will just bet that
Speaker 2: like nuts.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So I'm fine with that game. I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't have a particular preference for it over any
Speaker 1: of the other games we talked about. What how do
Speaker 1: you feel about the Chargers laying three and a half
Speaker 1: to the Broncos in Denver?
Speaker 2: I hate it in Denver because historically the Chargers don't
Speaker 2: play well there.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: And you know, with Denver you're always worried about those
Speaker 2: freak snowstorms popping up and changing things that could happened
Speaker 2: last week. Herbert's not really a guy that I'm gonna
Speaker 2: trust in the I don't think he's fine in the cold,
Speaker 2: in the in the in the rain, but in the snow.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you ever played a snow game before.
Speaker 2: So I'm a little concerned about him there. And look,
Speaker 2: they have to pass the football, they got to throw
Speaker 2: a keeling a key and Allen was outstanding last week
Speaker 2: for them, so he was huge, so they're gonna have
Speaker 2: to throw the ball. So I'm a little concerned about
Speaker 2: the weather. You know, if I had to pick it,
Speaker 2: I would say the Chargers, But historically speaking, I'm a
Speaker 2: little concerned about them on the road at Denver.
Speaker 1: That's how I feel too, that the side that I
Speaker 1: lean is the Chargers, but I don't love it, like
Speaker 1: I'll probably, you know, take them. The consensus line is
Speaker 1: actually down to three, so I'll definitely take them Drew
Speaker 1: lock I you know, I don't trust Drew Locke. He's
Speaker 1: not good under pressure. They're gonna get a lot of pressure.
Speaker 1: As they've gotten healthier, they've gotten Ingram back on that line.
Speaker 1: So I do think that the Chargers are ultimately going
Speaker 1: to come away with it. But I really don't like
Speaker 1: taking road teams in Denver. It's just like a natural
Speaker 1: thing because I just it's an environment that I just
Speaker 1: never feel comfortable in. So that's fine, let's go to
Speaker 1: how do you feel about this one? Because you know,
Speaker 1: I feel like the quote unquote sharp side is with
Speaker 1: the Vikings, but I kind of like the Packers laying
Speaker 1: six and a half to the Vikings in Green Bay.
Speaker 2: I believe this is the worst weather game of the weekend,
Speaker 2: is it not.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one where weather's going to factor in.
Speaker 2: Yes, I think it's gonna be bitterly cold and really
Speaker 2: really nasty. So, I mean, this is a Dome team
Speaker 2: on the road. I can't I can't get behind anybody
Speaker 2: but green Bay here.
Speaker 1: I like green Bay, That's what I'm saying. The other
Speaker 1: you know, the generally, and look, they're probably gonna be down.
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones here, he hasn't practiced, but you saw Jamal Williams. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he and Alan Lazard, by the way, is suddenly practicing.
Speaker 1: I didn't even realize that he had a chance. I
Speaker 1: don't know if he has a chance to play this
Speaker 1: week or anything, but if he does, that obviously helps.
Speaker 1: I just think that you could see because I believe
Speaker 1: that the Packers. One of the reasons why I'm a
Speaker 1: little hesitant on it is I think the Packers have
Speaker 1: a Thursday night game following against San Francisco that could
Speaker 1: certainly be something where they could be looking ahead where
Speaker 1: even though it's the Vikings, the Vikings are a terrible
Speaker 1: football team right now, there's all this talk of selling.
Speaker 1: I could see the Packers basically coming up with a
Speaker 1: short week, kind of not focusing on it as much
Speaker 1: and letting the Vikings hang around a little bit. And
Speaker 1: I could see if Dalvin Cook is fully healthy, the
Speaker 1: Vikings having a lot of because Green Bay really can't
Speaker 1: stop the run, having a lot of success keeping it
Speaker 1: close running the ball that I could see it. But
Speaker 1: overall the Vikings, man, they can't. They've got Their defense
Speaker 1: is horrific. Right now, Rogers is playing really well. You know,
Speaker 1: I would take the Packers, although they're off a bye
Speaker 1: and Zimmer usually has them playing well off of by.
Speaker 2: So here's here's the weather. It's a high thirty eight.
Speaker 2: The number that everybody, if you're new a sports gambling
Speaker 2: the number you have to look at are sustained wins
Speaker 2: at twenty five miles or higher. Okay, that's the number,
Speaker 2: not gusts. Don't worry about gusts as much. You want
Speaker 2: sustained wins. These are sustained wins for twenty five to
Speaker 2: thirty five miles per hour, with occasional wind gusts between
Speaker 2: forty and forty five miles per hour. Okay. That is
Speaker 2: a significant weather game for the Green Pay Packers and
Speaker 2: screams under Okay, screaming under for Green Bay and Minnesota.
Speaker 2: I just if i'm I would never bet the Vikings.
Speaker 2: I would never bet Kirk Cousins in a weather game
Speaker 2: at Green Bay. No, no, So.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. If there's any side that we
Speaker 1: would take care, it would be the Packers. But that
Speaker 1: the weather also makes me a little just it's a variable.
Speaker 1: You know, you don't know what it's going to do
Speaker 1: necessarily to the game. So if you came in and
Speaker 1: you like the Packers are one of your pick, I
Speaker 1: would write it in. But you know, if it's something
Speaker 1: where it's.
Speaker 2: Put it in the maybe category, I mean, i'm, I'm,
Speaker 2: I'm because of the weather, you know, I do think
Speaker 2: the Vikings are going to struggle on the score in
Speaker 2: that gas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Okay, that is good. All right, let's
Speaker 1: finish up with the rest of the slate just so
Speaker 1: we could talk it out. Oh boy, this is probably
Speaker 1: your nightmare. How do you feel about the Bills laying
Speaker 1: three and a half to the Patriots in Buffalo?
Speaker 2: So I'm probably gonna bet the Patriots, And the reason
Speaker 2: is the weather, which is gonna be ra This is
Speaker 2: one of the games where it's gonna be windy and wet,
Speaker 2: so it's not just gonna be cold. It's not just
Speaker 2: gonna be windy. It's gonna be wet, windy, and cold.
Speaker 2: So that leans towards a Patriot game because the Bills
Speaker 2: are not built for this step of weather anymore. Okay,
Speaker 2: they are an offense that has to throw the ball
Speaker 2: down the field. They have become a warm weather team
Speaker 2: playing in Buffalo, New York, which is really kind of
Speaker 2: a strange decision. But I mean, Digs isn't bad. But
Speaker 2: Diggs has he played indoors with the Vikings and play outdoors,
Speaker 2: so he has experienced, but not as much as you
Speaker 2: would think coming over from Minnesota. This is you know,
Speaker 2: Alan played at Wyoming, but he hasn't looked good in weather,
Speaker 2: so it's kind of weird. It's like, didn't you play
Speaker 2: your football at Wyoming? But he hasn't looked great. Patriots
Speaker 2: are gonna run the ball, their offensive line is healthy.
Speaker 2: I think they lose the game by three. I like
Speaker 2: the hook there. Patriots lose to the Bills by three
Speaker 2: and when't and cover that Reno point spread.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the game. I have absolutely no desire
Speaker 1: to bet, right, You know.
Speaker 2: I mean we're talking because the Edelman news is gigantic,
Speaker 2: and I don't know how the fan, how the team's
Speaker 2: going to react to Edelman being out for at least
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I might. I don't think we're gonna see Edelman
Speaker 1: maybe at all for the rest of the season.
Speaker 2: It wouldn't shock me. I think Patris may have shut
Speaker 2: him down and just say, why play him this year
Speaker 2: because this year is a wash. She'll let's just get
Speaker 2: ready for next year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly how I feel. But again, I'm at
Speaker 1: the point where I don't I don't trust the Bills
Speaker 1: right now. I mean, no, congratulations you have won, yeah, or.
Speaker 2: Really there, I mean they came back down to earth
Speaker 2: with a big old.
Speaker 1: I had to watch that game closely last week because
Speaker 1: it was against the Jets, and my daughter likes the
Speaker 1: Bills because she likes animals and they're from Buffalo, so
Speaker 1: she likes the Bills, and so we were all rooting
Speaker 1: for the Bills because I'm rooting for the Jets to
Speaker 1: lose at this point, to go on sixteen and I
Speaker 1: was like, I was like screaming. I was like, what
Speaker 1: are you doing? Right now.
Speaker 2: Why you know, that was the weirdest teaser sweat I've
Speaker 2: had in a long time. I'll tell you that that
Speaker 2: is of all the games I've teased in my life.
Speaker 2: That was really weird. To have Bill's minus four and
Speaker 2: to sweat that thing the way they had to sweat
Speaker 2: that thing out. That was just ridiculous watching that bat
Speaker 2: of football being played and being concerned about not winning
Speaker 2: my bet.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, the consensus generally is going with Buffalo, which
Speaker 1: the consensus line is minus four, but it's not a
Speaker 1: game that I want at this point at all. Last
Speaker 1: game that we haven't talked about, which you briefly mentioned,
Speaker 1: is the Bucks laying ten and a half to the Giants.
Speaker 1: I think we're both on the same side, which is,
Speaker 1: if we're forced to pick a side, we'd go with
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Yeah, is that right?
Speaker 2: I don't hit. I mean, I'm not even forced. I
Speaker 2: think the Bucks You're gonna win that game and just
Speaker 2: na name the number to me. So it just spent
Speaker 2: upon what the Giants are gonna give up because the
Speaker 2: Giants aren't gonna score much.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you know, I don't. I don't think
Speaker 1: it matters. The fact really that god Win is out
Speaker 1: because I think they're gonna be able. The Bucks are
Speaker 1: gonna be able to do whatever they want. There's no Brown,
Speaker 1: so it's really just Evans, who you know, looks gimpy,
Speaker 1: but it doesn't really matter at that point.
Speaker 2: Dick Mike Evans gets traded.
Speaker 1: Nope, I don't. I think they they write it out.
Speaker 1: I I think that Okay.
Speaker 2: So if that happens, yeah, who punches who first? Brown
Speaker 2: punches him first or Evans punches him first.
Speaker 1: No, I think it's gonna be a mutual one where
Speaker 1: they're both going to do it exactly. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: like Rocky Rock Rock.
Speaker 2: Three, right, Yeah, simultaneous. I'll buy that because Antonio Brown's
Speaker 2: gonna take every single touch that Michael Mike Evans is
Speaker 2: supposed to have.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, to be fair, Mike Evans hasn't gotten that
Speaker 1: many touches in games.
Speaker 2: Because he can't run roats. Brady won't pro to you.
Speaker 2: If you're not gonna run run the route that Brady
Speaker 2: wants you to, he's not thrown it to you. And
Speaker 2: that's we've seen you know this, We've seen so many
Speaker 2: receivers come to New England and get frozen out, and
Speaker 2: you're like, why why, And it's Brady. And if you
Speaker 2: don't do it the way Brady wants, he goes to
Speaker 2: Gronk every darn time.
Speaker 1: Yep. And so you are right, and Gronk, by the way,
Speaker 1: looking much better.
Speaker 2: That's how we should have looked the whole time. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's just they weren't using him properly. Now they finally are.
Speaker 1: All right, So let's talk it out. We've got three
Speaker 1: in pen, the Raiders getting two and a half from
Speaker 1: the Browns, the Ravens lanth three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Steelers, the Chiefs laying nineteen and a half points
Speaker 1: of Jets. Wow, welcome to twenty twenty. And so here
Speaker 1: are the games that are under consideration, the ones. We've
Speaker 1: got two that you like and two that I kind
Speaker 1: of like. So maybe we'll go one and one. There.
Speaker 1: You like the Seahawks laying three and a half to
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers and the Rams laying four and
Speaker 1: a half to the Dolphins. All the Rams lank four
Speaker 1: and a half the Dolphins. Is one of your topics?
Speaker 2: Yeah right, yep.
Speaker 1: So that my guess is that's the one you want.
Speaker 2: If I'm gonna I'm gonna be Yeah, if you tell
Speaker 2: me to pick well of that group, it would be
Speaker 2: the Rams.
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, so let let's let's keep going with
Speaker 1: my two. First, I like the Saints lank four and
Speaker 1: a half to the Bears and the Packers lank six
Speaker 1: and a half to the Vikings. So I like both
Speaker 1: of those games pretty evenly. I'm good to pick one
Speaker 1: of of yours and one of mine, if you're good
Speaker 1: with that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I I don't mind taking both of yours. Actually,
Speaker 2: just because it's under seven the weather comes in is
Speaker 2: a factor we're fading the Vikings.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: I mean, if I'm as we're talking this out, if
Speaker 2: I'm going to stack the game, I probably would stack
Speaker 2: your two above my Rams. Okay, in terms of just
Speaker 2: in terms of in the contest where we're kind of
Speaker 2: trying to eliminate, like you mentioned variables, and the two
Speaker 2: thing is, if I'm wrong about two and he sets
Speaker 2: the world on fire, I'm done. The BET's done. Yeah.
Speaker 2: So I feel more confident saying that the Packers at
Speaker 2: home with Aaron Rodgers with a crap weather game will
Speaker 2: win and win handily over the Vikings than I am
Speaker 2: about taking on a quarterback who I have no idea
Speaker 2: what he'll look like. Really, I'm banking him on him sucking,
Speaker 2: but if he doesn't, I'm in trouble.
Speaker 1: What I like about these also is that I really
Speaker 1: think they are going to be a few games that
Speaker 1: we're not on the main side. Like I think a
Speaker 1: great majority of people are going to take the Vikings
Speaker 1: because that seems to be the sharp side. There's no
Speaker 1: way I'm doing it. But from everything I'm sort of
Speaker 1: looking at and the way the money's coming in right now,
Speaker 1: it's been on the Vikings, I don't get it. I
Speaker 1: don't think that the Chiefs are going to be heavily picked.
Speaker 1: I think that people are going to take the points
Speaker 1: with the Jets. I think people are going to like
Speaker 1: the Steelers in this game getting three and a half
Speaker 1: given where they are. So I think we've got good ones. Okay,
Speaker 1: so that's it. So there our last two them will
Speaker 1: be the Saints slaying four and a half to the
Speaker 1: Browns and the Packers laying six and a half to
Speaker 1: the Vikings.
Speaker 2: No Saints to the Bears, I mean to the Bears.
Speaker 1: What did I say, the Browns? Yeah? Yes, I should
Speaker 1: read my own writing better. I'm sorry, we are taking
Speaker 1: the Raiders getting to and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the only games I stand on tables for the
Speaker 2: Raiders and in the Ravens, those are those are games
Speaker 2: I'm betting. Those are games that that that I'm putting
Speaker 2: money behind, and I like them the most. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: bet the Rams game as well, But I'm not just
Speaker 2: sitting on the table as I am about the Raiders.
Speaker 2: In the Baltimore Ravens, those I feel strong about those
Speaker 2: two plays.
Speaker 1: I think in the end, you're probably right about the Rams,
Speaker 1: but I'd rather sit back and see what's gonna happen, now, right,
Speaker 1: that's fair?
Speaker 2: I agree?
Speaker 1: All right, So those are five picks. I feel okay
Speaker 1: about these, Matt. It's going to be fun to be
Speaker 1: ruining just for the Jets. God help me. If the
Speaker 1: Jets miraculously something were to happen and they won this game,
Speaker 1: oh could you imagine? Like it would legitimately be my
Speaker 1: nightmare because all I need them to do is lose
Speaker 1: out and then I'm taking them.
Speaker 2: And then everybody who has the Chiefs left over and
Speaker 2: the survivor pools are done.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that that that is right?
Speaker 2: Because if you have the Chiefs on the board. Still,
Speaker 2: this is the game you're playing the chief song.
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to find the Chiefs are minus twenty
Speaker 1: five hundred on the money line. So yeah, that sounds
Speaker 1: about right. I just wanted to say what it is,
Speaker 1: but you could go Jets plus twelve whatever. All right,
Speaker 1: so good picks as always. Follow me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris Adi and Matt at Sports dooc Matt if
Speaker 1: we make any changes, which we really are going to
Speaker 1: try not to do unless something some big news happens,
Speaker 1: because we find that the original bets are almost always
Speaker 1: better than anything we've changed them too, I will let
Speaker 1: you know on Twitter again. Go subscribe and listen to
Speaker 1: the Daily Juice podcast, my favorite podcast, which you can
Speaker 1: find on Betting Pros dot com, slash Daily Juice, or
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Speaker 1: YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros always mix it Up.
Speaker 1: You can see Matt's live stream Sunday mornings eleven to
Speaker 1: twelve on at Eastern Center Time and go to Betting
Speaker 1: Pros dot com slash Chat join our discord, talk to me,
Speaker 1: talk to Matt, talk to everybody else who loves sports betting.
Speaker 1: In the meantime, good luck with your bets this weekend
Speaker 1: and we will talk to you next weeks.
Speaker 2: Had