WEBVTT - How the Vaccines Will Change Our Lives 0:00:03.640 --> 0:00:08.440 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three forty 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:14.040 five since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:18.320 We're learning more and more about how well vaccines are 0:00:18.360 --> 0:00:22.400 working as millions of shots get doled out every day. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.599 How soon will we be able to get back to 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:30.360 normal life, and when can we say we've beaten the pandemic. 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:47.320 But first, here's what happened in virus news today. The 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:51.960 US is approaching an ugly milestone few imagined when the 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:56.720 first COVID nineteen cases were diagnosed a year ago, five 0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:01.400 hundred thousand deaths. That arc is likely to be reached 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:05.240 in the next few days, depending on whose count is used. 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:10.560 Top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci called the number terrible 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:16.080 and historic on NBC's Meet the Press. He said, while 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:20.040 the recent decline in case counts is good, it doesn't 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:25.200 signal that we're approaching herd immunity. New findings in the UK, 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:27.960 the first country in the western world to roll out 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:32.560 COVID nineteen vaccines, show the shots provide a high level 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:37.240 of protection against infection and illness after a single dose. 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:40.920 According to initial data in a study of medical workers. 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:45.319 One dose of the fiser and bio en tech vaccine 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:49.240 reduces the risk of infection by more than seventy percent, 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:54.320 and that number goes up to eight after the second dose. 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:59.680 The report adds to evidence that vaccinations are already having 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:04.400 a significant impacting countries with the most advanced campaigns to 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:09.760 protect their populations. Finally, the last six weeks have seen 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:13.239 a positive decline in the spread of the virus worldwide, 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:18.080 according to the World Health Organization. Mike Ryan, head of 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:22.560 the who's Emergencies Program, said on Irish radio that the 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:27.919 good news shouldn't spur governments to reopen too soon. Vaccines 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.920 appear to protect against severe illness in almost all cases, 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:41.840 he said, including from variance and Now for today's main story. 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:47.680 Nine vaccines have proved effective at protecting people from developing 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:52.760 symptoms of COVID nineteen, but we don't know yet how 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:58.320 good they are at preventing asymptomatic infections and keeping vaccinated 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:03.000 people from passing the virus onto others. The good news 0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:07.440 is that preliminary signs suggest they do at least some 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:11.520 of both. I spoke to Senior editor Jason Gale to 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:14.680 find out what we're learning about how the shots work 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:28.960 as vaccination campaigns continue around the world. So to what 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:33.120 extent can we attribute this decline we're seeing in COVID 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:38.080 nineteen cases to vaccination, Well, it's difficult to say. COVID 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:41.480 nineteen cases have been falling for six weeks or so globally, 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.520 and that roughly aligns with when vaccination programs began, but 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:49.000 it's hard to tease out the contribution of vaccines versus 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:52.920 factors like lockdown's double masking and other measures that can 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:57.200 reduce transmission. We also don't know yet how good vaccines 0:03:57.280 --> 0:04:03.200 are at stopping infection. So we've heard that a number 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:07.720 of current vaccines are more than effective at protecting people 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:12.080 from getting sick from COVID nineteen, But what I'm hearing 0:04:12.240 --> 0:04:15.960 is that we don't actually know whether they will stop 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:20.239 people from being infected with the virus that causes COVID 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:25.120 nineteen stars COVIE two. Correct. Development of the vaccines that 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:28.040 are being used now started more than a year ago, 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.800 and back then the objective was to create vaccines that 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:36.279 would stop people getting seriously ill from COVID and needing hospitalization, 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:39.640 and the vaccines do that, But the trials that tested 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:43.520 their efficacy weren't designed to gauge their effectiveness at preventing 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:47.200 asymptomatic infection. And we know that people who are infected 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.920 but have no symptoms can still spread the virus to others, 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.359 and stopping that spread the spread of the virus that's 0:04:55.680 --> 0:05:00.400 critical for getting the pandemic under control. Is that right? Yes, 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:02.279 of course we want to stop people getting sick and 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:05.560 dying from COVID, but ultimately we want to stop sarskvy 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:08.640 two from circulating. For one thing, we know the more 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.000 it circulates, the more chances the virus has to mutate 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:17.120 and for new variants to emerge. So broadly looking, what 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:24.200 are the chances that COVID nineteen vaccines will actually stop transmission. Well, 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:27.080 data are emerging and we can expect a lot more 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:30.520 information in the coming weeks from countries like Israel, which 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:34.039 has vaccinated the greatest proportion of its citizens. As of 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.919 early February, more than a quarter of people fifteen years 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:41.520 and older and of the population over sixty five were 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:46.040 fully vaccinated with the fires Beyond Tech vaccine, and in Israel, 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:48.640 the dominant strain there is a variant first reported in 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:52.240 the UK researchers are seeing signs that the vaccine is 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:57.599 preventing infections and COVID cases, hospitalizations, and debts are falling 0:05:57.720 --> 0:05:59.800 at a much faster rate in those who have been 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:05.440 re vaccinated compared with those who haven't, and that declining 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:10.160 rate is great news. But what about other strains of 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:15.560 COVID nineteen or other vaccines. There's no comparative data yet 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:18.440 to know how the different vaccines stack up against each 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:22.240 other and the various strains that are circulating. Based on 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:26.200 laboratory experiments and clinical trial data, it looks like there 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.919 will be some differences, but lab studies are a little 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:33.200 bit limited as they typically look only at antibody levels 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:37.160 in blood samples and not other components of the immune system. 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:40.320 So we'll get more information as these vaccines are used 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:44.240 more widely in large populations. The other thing, um, the 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:47.920 other important thing to say is that vaccine manufacturers are 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.960 monitoring the data closely and have already started working on 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:55.719 new versions and combinations to optimize efficacy as new strains emerge. 0:06:57.560 --> 0:07:00.839 Looking big picture, do you think there will ever be 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:05.520 a point that we can actually eradicate COVID nineteen. No, 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:10.480 Only one human disease has been officially eradicated, and that's smallpox. 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.480 The world was able to achieve it because we have 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:17.560 an effective vaccine against small box and only one species 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:21.080 known to get the disease, humans, but we know with 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.680 saskov too, it probably exists in nature in bats and 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:29.080 possibly other creatures, so eradicating it will be virtually impossible. 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:32.760 But we know COVID nineteen can be controlled as it 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.880 has been here in Australia. So we're safe and effective 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:39.400 vaccines that can be shared equitably across the world. We 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:42.280 have a really good chance of eliminating it, at least 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:48.840 as a public health threat. That was Jason Gale, and 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:51.040 that's it for our show today. For coverage of the 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:55.120 outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:59.400 com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:03.000 leave us a view and rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:05.920 It's the best way to help more listeners find our 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:10.560 global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:15.600 foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:19.760 was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo sidrin 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:24.240 Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:27.880 is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.