Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three forty
Speaker 1: five since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story.
Speaker 1: We're learning more and more about how well vaccines are
Speaker 1: working as millions of shots get doled out every day.
Speaker 1: How soon will we be able to get back to
Speaker 1: normal life, and when can we say we've beaten the pandemic.
Speaker 1: But first, here's what happened in virus news today. The
Speaker 1: US is approaching an ugly milestone few imagined when the
Speaker 1: first COVID nineteen cases were diagnosed a year ago, five
Speaker 1: hundred thousand deaths. That arc is likely to be reached
Speaker 1: in the next few days, depending on whose count is used.
Speaker 1: Top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci called the number terrible
Speaker 1: and historic on NBC's Meet the Press. He said, while
Speaker 1: the recent decline in case counts is good, it doesn't
Speaker 1: signal that we're approaching herd immunity. New findings in the UK,
Speaker 1: the first country in the western world to roll out
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen vaccines, show the shots provide a high level
Speaker 1: of protection against infection and illness after a single dose.
Speaker 1: According to initial data in a study of medical workers.
Speaker 1: One dose of the fiser and bio en tech vaccine
Speaker 1: reduces the risk of infection by more than seventy percent,
Speaker 1: and that number goes up to eight after the second dose.
Speaker 1: The report adds to evidence that vaccinations are already having
Speaker 1: a significant impacting countries with the most advanced campaigns to
Speaker 1: protect their populations. Finally, the last six weeks have seen
Speaker 1: a positive decline in the spread of the virus worldwide,
Speaker 1: according to the World Health Organization. Mike Ryan, head of
Speaker 1: the who's Emergencies Program, said on Irish radio that the
Speaker 1: good news shouldn't spur governments to reopen too soon. Vaccines
Speaker 1: appear to protect against severe illness in almost all cases,
Speaker 1: he said, including from variance and Now for today's main story.
Speaker 1: Nine vaccines have proved effective at protecting people from developing
Speaker 1: symptoms of COVID nineteen, but we don't know yet how
Speaker 1: good they are at preventing asymptomatic infections and keeping vaccinated
Speaker 1: people from passing the virus onto others. The good news
Speaker 1: is that preliminary signs suggest they do at least some
Speaker 1: of both. I spoke to Senior editor Jason Gale to
Speaker 1: find out what we're learning about how the shots work
Speaker 1: as vaccination campaigns continue around the world. So to what
Speaker 1: extent can we attribute this decline we're seeing in COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen cases to vaccination, Well, it's difficult to say. COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen cases have been falling for six weeks or so globally,
Speaker 1: and that roughly aligns with when vaccination programs began, but
Speaker 1: it's hard to tease out the contribution of vaccines versus
Speaker 1: factors like lockdown's double masking and other measures that can
Speaker 1: reduce transmission. We also don't know yet how good vaccines
Speaker 1: are at stopping infection. So we've heard that a number
Speaker 1: of current vaccines are more than effective at protecting people
Speaker 1: from getting sick from COVID nineteen, But what I'm hearing
Speaker 1: is that we don't actually know whether they will stop
Speaker 1: people from being infected with the virus that causes COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen stars COVIE two. Correct. Development of the vaccines that
Speaker 1: are being used now started more than a year ago,
Speaker 1: and back then the objective was to create vaccines that
Speaker 1: would stop people getting seriously ill from COVID and needing hospitalization,
Speaker 1: and the vaccines do that, But the trials that tested
Speaker 1: their efficacy weren't designed to gauge their effectiveness at preventing
Speaker 1: asymptomatic infection. And we know that people who are infected
Speaker 1: but have no symptoms can still spread the virus to others,
Speaker 1: and stopping that spread the spread of the virus that's
Speaker 1: critical for getting the pandemic under control. Is that right? Yes,
Speaker 1: of course we want to stop people getting sick and
Speaker 1: dying from COVID, but ultimately we want to stop sarskvy
Speaker 1: two from circulating. For one thing, we know the more
Speaker 1: it circulates, the more chances the virus has to mutate
Speaker 1: and for new variants to emerge. So broadly looking, what
Speaker 1: are the chances that COVID nineteen vaccines will actually stop transmission. Well,
Speaker 1: data are emerging and we can expect a lot more
Speaker 1: information in the coming weeks from countries like Israel, which
Speaker 1: has vaccinated the greatest proportion of its citizens. As of
Speaker 1: early February, more than a quarter of people fifteen years
Speaker 1: and older and of the population over sixty five were
Speaker 1: fully vaccinated with the fires Beyond Tech vaccine, and in Israel,
Speaker 1: the dominant strain there is a variant first reported in
Speaker 1: the UK researchers are seeing signs that the vaccine is
Speaker 1: preventing infections and COVID cases, hospitalizations, and debts are falling
Speaker 1: at a much faster rate in those who have been
Speaker 1: re vaccinated compared with those who haven't, and that declining
Speaker 1: rate is great news. But what about other strains of
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen or other vaccines. There's no comparative data yet
Speaker 1: to know how the different vaccines stack up against each
Speaker 1: other and the various strains that are circulating. Based on
Speaker 1: laboratory experiments and clinical trial data, it looks like there
Speaker 1: will be some differences, but lab studies are a little
Speaker 1: bit limited as they typically look only at antibody levels
Speaker 1: in blood samples and not other components of the immune system.
Speaker 1: So we'll get more information as these vaccines are used
Speaker 1: more widely in large populations. The other thing, um, the
Speaker 1: other important thing to say is that vaccine manufacturers are
Speaker 1: monitoring the data closely and have already started working on
Speaker 1: new versions and combinations to optimize efficacy as new strains emerge.
Speaker 1: Looking big picture, do you think there will ever be
Speaker 1: a point that we can actually eradicate COVID nineteen. No,
Speaker 1: Only one human disease has been officially eradicated, and that's smallpox.
Speaker 1: The world was able to achieve it because we have
Speaker 1: an effective vaccine against small box and only one species
Speaker 1: known to get the disease, humans, but we know with
Speaker 1: saskov too, it probably exists in nature in bats and
Speaker 1: possibly other creatures, so eradicating it will be virtually impossible.
Speaker 1: But we know COVID nineteen can be controlled as it
Speaker 1: has been here in Australia. So we're safe and effective
Speaker 1: vaccines that can be shared equitably across the world. We
Speaker 1: have a really good chance of eliminating it, at least
Speaker 1: as a public health threat. That was Jason Gale, and
Speaker 1: that's it for our show today. For coverage of the
Speaker 1: outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot
Speaker 1: com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please
Speaker 1: leave us a view and rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listeners find our
Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor
Speaker 1: foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story
Speaker 1: was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo sidrin
Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.