1 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:08,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three forty 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: five since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 3 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: We're learning more and more about how well vaccines are 4 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: working as millions of shots get doled out every day. 5 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: How soon will we be able to get back to 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: normal life, and when can we say we've beaten the pandemic. 7 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: But first, here's what happened in virus news today. The 8 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 1: US is approaching an ugly milestone few imagined when the 9 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: first COVID nineteen cases were diagnosed a year ago, five 10 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: hundred thousand deaths. That arc is likely to be reached 11 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: in the next few days, depending on whose count is used. 12 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: Top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci called the number terrible 13 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: and historic on NBC's Meet the Press. He said, while 14 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 1: the recent decline in case counts is good, it doesn't 15 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: signal that we're approaching herd immunity. New findings in the UK, 16 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 1: the first country in the western world to roll out 17 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen vaccines, show the shots provide a high level 18 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: of protection against infection and illness after a single dose. 19 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: According to initial data in a study of medical workers. 20 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: One dose of the fiser and bio en tech vaccine 21 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: reduces the risk of infection by more than seventy percent, 22 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: and that number goes up to eight after the second dose. 23 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: The report adds to evidence that vaccinations are already having 24 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: a significant impacting countries with the most advanced campaigns to 25 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: protect their populations. Finally, the last six weeks have seen 26 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 1: a positive decline in the spread of the virus worldwide, 27 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: according to the World Health Organization. Mike Ryan, head of 28 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: the who's Emergencies Program, said on Irish radio that the 29 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: good news shouldn't spur governments to reopen too soon. Vaccines 30 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 1: appear to protect against severe illness in almost all cases, 31 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: he said, including from variance and Now for today's main story. 32 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: Nine vaccines have proved effective at protecting people from developing 33 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: symptoms of COVID nineteen, but we don't know yet how 34 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: good they are at preventing asymptomatic infections and keeping vaccinated 35 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: people from passing the virus onto others. The good news 36 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: is that preliminary signs suggest they do at least some 37 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: of both. I spoke to Senior editor Jason Gale to 38 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: find out what we're learning about how the shots work 39 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: as vaccination campaigns continue around the world. So to what 40 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: extent can we attribute this decline we're seeing in COVID 41 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: nineteen cases to vaccination, Well, it's difficult to say. COVID 42 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: nineteen cases have been falling for six weeks or so globally, 43 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: and that roughly aligns with when vaccination programs began, but 44 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: it's hard to tease out the contribution of vaccines versus 45 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: factors like lockdown's double masking and other measures that can 46 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: reduce transmission. We also don't know yet how good vaccines 47 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: are at stopping infection. So we've heard that a number 48 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: of current vaccines are more than effective at protecting people 49 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: from getting sick from COVID nineteen, But what I'm hearing 50 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: is that we don't actually know whether they will stop 51 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,239 Speaker 1: people from being infected with the virus that causes COVID 52 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: nineteen stars COVIE two. Correct. Development of the vaccines that 53 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: are being used now started more than a year ago, 54 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 1: and back then the objective was to create vaccines that 55 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: would stop people getting seriously ill from COVID and needing hospitalization, 56 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: and the vaccines do that, But the trials that tested 57 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: their efficacy weren't designed to gauge their effectiveness at preventing 58 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: asymptomatic infection. And we know that people who are infected 59 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: but have no symptoms can still spread the virus to others, 60 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 1: and stopping that spread the spread of the virus that's 61 00:04:55,680 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: critical for getting the pandemic under control. Is that right? Yes, 62 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 1: of course we want to stop people getting sick and 63 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: dying from COVID, but ultimately we want to stop sarskvy 64 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: two from circulating. For one thing, we know the more 65 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: it circulates, the more chances the virus has to mutate 66 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: and for new variants to emerge. So broadly looking, what 67 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: are the chances that COVID nineteen vaccines will actually stop transmission. Well, 68 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: data are emerging and we can expect a lot more 69 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: information in the coming weeks from countries like Israel, which 70 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: has vaccinated the greatest proportion of its citizens. As of 71 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 1: early February, more than a quarter of people fifteen years 72 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 1: and older and of the population over sixty five were 73 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 1: fully vaccinated with the fires Beyond Tech vaccine, and in Israel, 74 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: the dominant strain there is a variant first reported in 75 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 1: the UK researchers are seeing signs that the vaccine is 76 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 1: preventing infections and COVID cases, hospitalizations, and debts are falling 77 00:05:57,720 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: at a much faster rate in those who have been 78 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: re vaccinated compared with those who haven't, and that declining 79 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 1: rate is great news. But what about other strains of 80 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen or other vaccines. There's no comparative data yet 81 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: to know how the different vaccines stack up against each 82 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: other and the various strains that are circulating. Based on 83 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: laboratory experiments and clinical trial data, it looks like there 84 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,919 Speaker 1: will be some differences, but lab studies are a little 85 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: bit limited as they typically look only at antibody levels 86 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 1: in blood samples and not other components of the immune system. 87 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: So we'll get more information as these vaccines are used 88 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: more widely in large populations. The other thing, um, the 89 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 1: other important thing to say is that vaccine manufacturers are 90 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: monitoring the data closely and have already started working on 91 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 1: new versions and combinations to optimize efficacy as new strains emerge. 92 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: Looking big picture, do you think there will ever be 93 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: a point that we can actually eradicate COVID nineteen. No, 94 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: Only one human disease has been officially eradicated, and that's smallpox. 95 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: The world was able to achieve it because we have 96 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: an effective vaccine against small box and only one species 97 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: known to get the disease, humans, but we know with 98 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: saskov too, it probably exists in nature in bats and 99 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: possibly other creatures, so eradicating it will be virtually impossible. 100 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: But we know COVID nineteen can be controlled as it 101 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: has been here in Australia. So we're safe and effective 102 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: vaccines that can be shared equitably across the world. We 103 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: have a really good chance of eliminating it, at least 104 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: as a public health threat. That was Jason Gale, and 105 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: that's it for our show today. For coverage of the 106 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 1: outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot 107 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please 108 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: leave us a view and rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 109 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listeners find our 110 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor 111 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story 112 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo sidrin 113 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 114 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.