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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you happy? Final Four? My

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Speaker 1: name is Matt Pearlton. Welcome into our weekly College Basketball

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Speaker 1: Picks podcast where I'll be breaking down the Final Four

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Speaker 1: for you guys. We are down to just two games

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Speaker 1: left in college basketball. I'm going to give you four stats,

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Speaker 1: one for each team that I think can help us

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Speaker 1: make plays. I'm going to give you three bets. Plus

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Speaker 1: I'm going to give you a hard rock bet of

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Speaker 1: the day as well for the Final four. So I

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Speaker 1: have four different bets that we're going to give you

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Speaker 1: guys coming up here on the show today. It is Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: it is Lucas Oil Stadium. They have hosted final fours before,

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Speaker 1: so we have data. We have information about how teams

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Speaker 1: have performed in this dome, how they have shot, the

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Speaker 1: way the games have gone. So we'll do that all

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Speaker 1: coming up here on the show four or today. Before

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Speaker 1: we get to the picks, a reminder about one of

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Speaker 1: our friends, Omaha Steaks, who have been with us quite

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Speaker 1: These things have been in my freezer for a while,

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Speaker 1: four teams, four different things to look at. First, big bet,

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Speaker 1: first stat for the bets he's got of an overarching conversation.

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Speaker 1: You do not want to be on the public side

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Speaker 1: in the final four. Okay, we have seen a bunch

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Speaker 1: of public sides go down in the final four and

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Speaker 1: in the national title games. The biggest public sides oh

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Speaker 1: and four straight up in oh to four against the spread.

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Speaker 1: In the final four. Only one team that has closed

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Speaker 1: even with a sixty two percent mark of tickets or

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Speaker 1: hire since two thousand and eight have come in in cash.

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Speaker 1: That was Duke last year who blew the lead and

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Speaker 1: lost to Houston. So biggest public sides, be careful here.

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Speaker 1: We want to stay away from the public. If you

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Speaker 1: see a lot of people going all one way, if

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Speaker 1: everyone's going one way, that's probably not where you want

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Speaker 1: to be here. Now, let's talk about Illinois bred Underwood.

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Speaker 1: Twenty one games in the tournament with three different schools,

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Speaker 1: he's been pretty good and the round of sixty four,

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Speaker 1: in the sweet sixteen and the final four now going

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Speaker 1: into it, he is nine and three against the spread. However,

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Speaker 1: in the round of thirty two in the Elite eight,

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Speaker 1: he's just four and five ATS wise. Underwood's seventy five

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Speaker 1: percent ATS mark when he has more time to prepare

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Speaker 1: is really good. Now, Dan Hurley is ten and three,

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Speaker 1: also really good. So you've got the Yukon coach at

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Speaker 1: ten and three and you've got Brad Underwood at nine

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Speaker 1: and three, So that kind of washes away a little

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Speaker 1: bit here as to who gets the coaching advantage. Yukon

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Speaker 1: is a very interesting team because why Dan Hurley. Dan

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Speaker 1: Hurley is ten and zero against the spread in the

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Speaker 1: sweet sixteen or later. That's insane. That's the best mark

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Speaker 1: for any head coach in the seeding era. Brad Stevens,

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Speaker 1: the GM of the Celtics, He's he was seven and

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Speaker 1: one at Butler's number two. Yukon's also fourteen and oh

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Speaker 1: with Dan Hurley as their head coach in the round

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Speaker 1: of thirty two or later. That is unbelievable. On top

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Speaker 1: of the fact that Connecticut when they get to the

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Speaker 1: championship game, have never lost. They're six and oh in

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Speaker 1: the championship game, and they're six and oh against the spread,

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Speaker 1: which is the best percentage in national title games and

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Speaker 1: the most wins among all programs. I mean, that is ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Yukon is twelve and one straight up and eleven and

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Speaker 1: two against the spread in the final four in program history. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you have two incredible coaches, two incredible programs, but Yukon's

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Speaker 1: history is ridiculous. Michigan, Michigan has been playing incredibly well

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Speaker 1: in this tournament. Michigan, their path, though, is a little

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Speaker 1: bit easier than others. If you look at the seating wise,

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Speaker 1: a sixteen to nine, a four and a six, that's

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Speaker 1: who they beat. On the way to the final four. However,

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Speaker 1: Michigan's shooting in this tournament has been incredible in the

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Speaker 1: early part of the year. In twenty twenty five, Michigan

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Speaker 1: was hitting at just thirty eight percent from behind the arc.

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Speaker 1: Then in January it was down to twenty nine percent.

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Speaker 1: Then we hit February. They played seventeen games in the

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Speaker 1: month they shot the rock at forty percent from behind

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Speaker 1: the arc. In the NCAA tournament, Michigan is all the

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Speaker 1: way up to forty four point six percent shooting from

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Speaker 1: behind the three point line. Dusty May's team is really

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Speaker 1: shooting well in this tournament. And finally Arizona and Tommy

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Speaker 1: Lloyd his first trip to the final four. It's Dusty

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Speaker 1: may second, it's Dan Hurley's third, and it's the first

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Speaker 1: time coming in for Tommy Lloyd. First time for Beret

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Speaker 1: Underwoll as well, he has been great at Arizona in

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Speaker 1: the tournament twenty two and six straight up six and

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Speaker 1: one in games with small spreads of four points or less.

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Speaker 1: Ats wise, Arizona is four to oh in this tournaments.

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Speaker 1: They were two to one last year. That six and

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Speaker 1: one combined for Arizona in the last two NCAA tournaments

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Speaker 1: and now they're in the final four. Arizona is the

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Speaker 1: lone undefeated team in the non conference. They have taken

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Speaker 1: on seventeen teams in the non conference and they have

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Speaker 1: won seventeen games straight up. They are eleven and six

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Speaker 1: against the spread as well for Arizona. So generally speaking,

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Speaker 1: the coaches who have had more experience have done better

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Speaker 1: in the n CUBA Tournament. Teams have more experienced in

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Speaker 1: the Final four also do better in the Final four.

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Speaker 1: That gives Dan Hurley a gigantic leg up. I told

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Speaker 1: you about Yukon being six to zero in the championship game.

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Speaker 1: Yukon has the lowest odds the longest odds to win

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Speaker 1: the national championship of the four teams remaining. This is

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Speaker 1: too good of a bet. Yukon is a two point

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Speaker 1: dog to Illinois. Can they beat Illinois, Absolutely, But I

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Speaker 1: think they beat Illinois in the final four and then

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Speaker 1: we'll see who they play, either Michigan or Arizona. But

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Speaker 1: it's too good of a bet. We don't need to

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Speaker 1: bet Yukon to win this game. Okay, forget about the chance,

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Speaker 1: because if they win this game, they're in the championship game.

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Speaker 1: So it really is a better better bet to go

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Speaker 1: ahead and bet on Yukon to win it all than

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Speaker 1: it is for Yukon to win this game. Yukon is

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Speaker 1: a plus six fifty dog here to win it all.

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Speaker 1: We're going Yukon to win it all at plus six

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Speaker 1: fifty because we can hedge off of it in the

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Speaker 1: championship game. So don't bother the two points because chances

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Speaker 1: are if Illinois wins, Illinois is going to cover that

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Speaker 1: two point number. It's too small. So yes, there could

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Speaker 1: be a three point buzzer beader. Yes, Yukon just beat Kinetic,

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Speaker 1: just beat Duke by one point with a last second three,

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Speaker 1: So maybe that happens again and we lose this bet,

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Speaker 1: and I'm kicking myself for doing it. But I think

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Speaker 1: at a six fifth fifty six and a half to

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Speaker 1: one return, knowing what will happen, I mean, they're probably

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Speaker 1: going to be a four or five point dog to

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Speaker 1: either Arizona or Michigan, So we would have plus six fifty.

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Speaker 1: That's not going to be as good of a number

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Speaker 1: as you're gonna get plus six fifty. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: three plus three fifty plus four hundred, we'll have six fifty.

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Speaker 1: We'll be able to head off of it. Go ahead

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Speaker 1: and take a money line play on the other side,

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Speaker 1: or wait till endgame and take a money line play

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Speaker 1: on the National Championship game on Monday. We can go

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Speaker 1: ahead and do that. Yukon to win it all at

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Speaker 1: plus six fifty is our first bet. Second bet, Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Lucas Oil Stadium for a second. In Lucas

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Speaker 1: Oil Stadium, they've had forty college basketball games ever since

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Speaker 1: twenty thirteen in their building. The first half over is

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Speaker 1: twenty four and sixteen in those forty games. Why are

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Speaker 1: they going over because the number is depressed because people

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Speaker 1: think that they don't the teams don't shoot well when

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Speaker 1: they get to dome stadiums. First half overs went eleven

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Speaker 1: and six so far in the NCAA tournament. While I

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Speaker 1: don't like the Illinois Yukon game to go over, even

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Speaker 1: though it might, I think the Michigan Arizona game in

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Speaker 1: the first half is going to go over. I like

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Speaker 1: that game to go over. Seventy three and a half

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Speaker 1: in the first half for Arizona and Michigan seventy three

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Speaker 1: and a half first half total to go over. I

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Speaker 1: think we see offense. We talked about the Michigan three

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Speaker 1: point shooting and just how good the Michigan three point

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Speaker 1: shooting has been. It's been really, really good in this tournament.

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Speaker 1: Let's keep it going. We know that Arizona can shoot

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Speaker 1: the rock, and we know that Arizona's got the size

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Speaker 1: to contend and score Internally, We're going Arizona. We're going

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Speaker 1: Arizona Michigan. First half over seventy three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Third bet Arizona catching two from Michigan. Look, you can

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Speaker 1: take money line as well. I'll take the two points

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Speaker 1: just because but Michigan has been so dominant in this

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Speaker 1: tournament because teams have packed it in in the paint,

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Speaker 1: because they've been so concerned about Michigan's size and strength

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Speaker 1: close to the basket. That has opened up the outside

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Speaker 1: shooters and that's why they're burying wide open threes and

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Speaker 1: they're shooting at forty four percent in the NCAA tournaments.

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Speaker 1: The thing about Arizona, though, is they have the size

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Speaker 1: and the bulk and the strength to deal with the

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Speaker 1: physicality of Michigan. They're not going to get pushed around

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Speaker 1: the way other teams have gotten pushed around. Pete alone

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Speaker 1: inside is not going to get pushed arounds by the

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Speaker 1: bigs from Michigan. And Frankly, while I like the guards

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Speaker 1: from Michigan, I like Arizona's guards better. I just think

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Speaker 1: when you look at how they've played in the non

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Speaker 1: conference being seventeen to zero, I think Arizona's been the

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Speaker 1: best team in college basketball since I watched them way

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Speaker 1: back in November. I think that they are the best

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Speaker 1: team in college basketball. Still think Tommy Lloyd, even with

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Speaker 1: the North Carolina rumor hanging over his head about whether

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Speaker 1: or not he's departing to go to Carolina, which I

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Speaker 1: think would be a great job for him to take,

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Speaker 1: I think we come in and we got to go

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Speaker 1: with it. I think we're taking Arizona plus two, so

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Speaker 1: our first three plays for the final four Yukon to

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Speaker 1: win it all, which is essentially a money line play

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Speaker 1: up against Illinois Arizona plus two Arizona Michigan first half

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Speaker 1: over at seventy three and a half. If you want more,

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Speaker 1: you could take Yukon over Arizona at for an exacta

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Speaker 1: that's twelve to one. I have bet that because if

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Speaker 1: Yukon wins in Arizona wins, I'll come back and take

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Speaker 1: Arizona and then we'll have multiple plays on this. So

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Speaker 1: this is how I like to attack markets, is by

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Speaker 1: taking big pluses and being able to hedge off of

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Speaker 1: it to guarantee profit. So Arizona, I do think is

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Speaker 1: a good play to win it all, but I'd rather

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Speaker 1: just take I think Yukon beats Illinois, play that exacta

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Speaker 1: and then bet Arizona money line during the game or

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Speaker 1: pre flop, depending on the price to come in. So

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Speaker 1: Yukon plus six fifty or Yukon over Arizona. Sure Michigan

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Speaker 1: can beat Arizona absolutely and that would kill that bet.

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Speaker 1: That's why I like the Yukon play more. I think

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Speaker 1: it's I like the Yukon plus six fifty play more

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Speaker 1: than I like the Arizona Yukon EXACTA. So that's why

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Speaker 1: I'm talking that's a better play to do that. But

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Speaker 1: if you want more, or you want to get involved

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Speaker 1: with some other things, you can do that as well.

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Speaker 1: Before I give you the hard Rock bet of the day,

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Speaker 1: let me tell you about our friends at hard Rock Bet.

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Speaker 1: It is here the round of four. It's in Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: We will find a national championship in just a couple

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Speaker 1: of days. Who will cut down the nets. We'll have

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Speaker 1: to wait and see. But hard Rock Bet has got

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Speaker 1: your daily dancing boosts going on right now. They've got

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Speaker 1: live profit boosts and a parlay profit boost for the games,

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Speaker 1: giving you more ways to go in there and cash

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Speaker 1: in with boost to odds when the stakes are at

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Speaker 1: their highest. Hard Rock Bet is also giving you a

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Speaker 1: chance with new sign ups to double your winnings first

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Speaker 1: ten bets maximum fifty dollars. It means if you would

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Speaker 1: have won a hundred bucks, they're going to double it

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Speaker 1: to two hundred bucks. Don't just sit there on the bench.

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Speaker 1: Download the hard rock Bet app today and get the

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Speaker 1: party started. Let's talk about the NIT for a second.

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Speaker 1: This is another way of approaching a market that maybe

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Speaker 1: people aren't paying attention to. This starts tomorrow Thursday. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Auburn is the last power team left. They'll play Illinois State, Okay,

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Speaker 1: the other side of the bracket. When you look at

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Speaker 1: the way these games are going to get played out,

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Speaker 1: and I'll give you an up to date number as

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Speaker 1: to where these numbers are for this Auburn was seven

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at the last look over

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Speaker 1: Illinois State in their game here in the Yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: still now they're six and a half point favorites. It's

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Speaker 1: come down a bit, but I still like Auburn. Money

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Speaker 1: line Tulsa in New Mexico play. On the other side,

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Speaker 1: New Mexico is a three and a half point now

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Speaker 1: four point favorite over Tulsa. Auburn at Hinkle, I think

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Speaker 1: once you get to the final four, there's a question

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Speaker 1: about whether or not Auburn would be focused, would they

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Speaker 1: be motivated, would they have would they be locked in?

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Speaker 1: I think once you get here to Hinkle and you travel,

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Speaker 1: it's let's just go win the whole thing. We're here,

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Speaker 1: let's go win it. I think Auburn's gonna win it.

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Speaker 1: It's plus one fifteen for Auburn, and I know it

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Speaker 1: may be a little bit public to go after it,

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Speaker 1: but I think that Bruce Pearl's kid has got enough

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Speaker 1: talent on this roster for Auburn, in enough Athlicism on

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Speaker 1: this roster to get past Illinois State out of the

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Speaker 1: Missouri Valley and then most likely play a tough New

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Speaker 1: Mexico team. But New Mexico is really hard at home.

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Speaker 1: When New Mexico plays in the pit, that's what makes

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Speaker 1: them really difficult without New Mexico's home court advantage at Hinkle,

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Speaker 1: I like Auburn here with a good site line. I'm

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Speaker 1: taking Auburn to win the nit at plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Shop around, different books have got different options on that,

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Speaker 1: but hard Rock by of the day is Auburn to

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Speaker 1: win the niit at plus one fifteen. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. We will be back on Monday for the

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Speaker 1: National Championship game. I will give you a full breakdown.

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Speaker 1: I'll do it probably Sunday night into the game on

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Speaker 1: Monday morning. So what to look for this podcast coming

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Speaker 1: up on Monday morning as we'll get back after it

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Speaker 1: to see who winds up cutdowns? Who is going to

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Speaker 1: cut down the nets? Coming up for the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five twenty twenty six college basketball and National Championship. My

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Speaker 1: name is Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matts. Go check out the Daily Juice podcast

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Speaker 1: if you haven't watched that before. We'll make more picks

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Speaker 1: and plays for the big games in college basketball into

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Speaker 1: the Championship game. Coming up on Monday, I'll talk to

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Speaker 1: you on the next episode of our weekly college basketball

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Speaker 1: betting guide.