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Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jailey.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. We

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Speaker 1: begin a good, good two days of coverage out at

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Speaker 1: Jackson Hall. We are thrilled Michael McKee and Kathleen As

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Speaker 1: are there and is always the host of these Kansas

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Speaker 1: City meetings. Within their district is Wyoming and Jackson Hall.

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Speaker 1: Here is the president of the Kansas City fed Esther George.

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Speaker 1: The economy is doing well and based on what I

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Speaker 1: see today, I think two more rate hikes this year

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Speaker 1: could be appropriate. But I so am mindful that's not

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Speaker 1: a commitment that each meeting you have to reassess and

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Speaker 1: understand what are you seeing in the data, what are

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Speaker 1: you hearing from your constituents that you talked to UH

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Speaker 1: and make the decision at that time. So hopefully everything

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Speaker 1: holds together as we get to the end of the

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Speaker 1: Would you see that the committee is coalesced around that view? Now?

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Speaker 1: Is that a strong consensus? So? I think if you

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Speaker 1: look at the dot plot which the committee puts out.

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Speaker 1: You read the minutes, you read the statement that's come out,

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Speaker 1: um it would suggest that there is a degree of

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Speaker 1: consensus around the state of the economy, but obviously within

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Speaker 1: that committee you are going to get differences on how

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Speaker 1: many rate hikes are appropriate at this stage. Earlier you

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Speaker 1: were worried about the pace of growth and inflation picking up,

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Speaker 1: concern that FED policy might have to move faster that

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year view. Is that what you're expressing

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Speaker 1: now or do you think this is going to have

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Speaker 1: to pick up even more when we get into so

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Speaker 1: based on what we see today, I don't think the

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Speaker 1: performance of the economy that we've seen and the way

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Speaker 1: inflation has performed, is argued for going faster or fundamentally

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Speaker 1: changing the course. But I think an upside risk would

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Speaker 1: be that we have procyclical fiscal policy happening at a

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Speaker 1: time when we have accommodated monetary policy, and so we

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Speaker 1: have to watch that risk and see how that unfolds.

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Speaker 1: When you think about dots, have you penciled in a

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Speaker 1: number of rate hikes between nineteen Well, I'm obligated to

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Speaker 1: pencil in a number of rate hikes Whether those will

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Speaker 1: come about, it's always harder, as you know. I can

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Speaker 1: see maybe the next quarter, the next two looking into

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen will be a function of whether this economy

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Speaker 1: continues to perform. As we have an estimate you allowed

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Speaker 1: to share with us, so I could see if getting

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Speaker 1: back to somewhere in the neighborhood of a three percent

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Speaker 1: neutral rate, which is how I think about the long

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Speaker 1: run neutral rate, would suggest that we need to make

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Speaker 1: several more moves next year. Two. Okay, I'm glad you

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Speaker 1: raised the question of the neutral rate because there seems

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Speaker 1: to be a very interesting discussion within the form C now,

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Speaker 1: not just about where the neutral rate is, but how

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Speaker 1: you use it. Do you get to neutral all your

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Speaker 1: view of neutral and stop, or do you say I

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Speaker 1: got to go a bit further and make sure we

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Speaker 1: don't have an inflation issue now. So this is will

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Speaker 1: be a big challenge for the committee. I call it

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Speaker 1: threading the needle, which is we've arrived at a point

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Speaker 1: where it will be important to judge whether our policy

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Speaker 1: is restrictive or still accommodative. And that will be a

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Speaker 1: function of looking at the data increasingly um and that's

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Speaker 1: why it makes it hard. This is not an observable benchmark.

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Speaker 1: If we could see it, then we could be more

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Speaker 1: clear about where that is. So I look to the consensus,

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Speaker 1: view the media, and view in that forecast to see

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Speaker 1: people are coalescing somewhere around two and a half to

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Speaker 1: three And we have to just be conscious that that

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Speaker 1: policy operates with a lag and to see how inflation,

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Speaker 1: employment growth in the economy unfolds. So do you put

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Speaker 1: yourself in the camp that says when we get to

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Speaker 1: three percent, I'm ready to pause and see what happens next.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know if they'll even be three. We

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Speaker 1: may see by the end of the year, depending on

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Speaker 1: how the economy unfolds. UH that we should always evaluate that.

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Speaker 1: So I take it a meeting by meeting approach Kathleen

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Speaker 1: to really try to judge how far and how fast

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Speaker 1: do we need to go. An annual kickoff to Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: can't convey the symbolism of that interview Kathleen has with

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Speaker 1: the President of Kansas City Fed MS George. The symbolism

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Speaker 1: of this meeting and the symbolism of that first interview

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Speaker 1: is profound. There is no one that can capture the

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Speaker 1: moments through the years of the importance of Jackson Hole.

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Speaker 1: That our Michael McKeough who joins us right now, Michael,

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Speaker 1: let me get a bear update first. The Saint Bear

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Speaker 1: cam up in Alaska, but it is the wilds of Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: Has has there been a bear sighting this year? We

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Speaker 1: have not seen a banner at Jackson Lake watche However,

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Speaker 1: I was in Montana the last couple of days and

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Speaker 1: day before yesterday was watching him grizzly. So there are

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Speaker 1: bears out here. I don't think they're invited to The

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Speaker 1: bears are certainly not invited to the conference with a

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Speaker 1: four percent run g d P. To go to the

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Speaker 1: papers first, I mean away from the chit chat. Is

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Speaker 1: there one paper that really stands out? Is there in

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Speaker 1: an anticipation of a certain academic and the importance of

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Speaker 1: twenty or forty pages, Uh not at this point. Um.

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Speaker 1: The interesting thing Tom about this meeting is the Kensie

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Speaker 1: tried to stay on top of issues that will be

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Speaker 1: facing central bankers in the years ahead, and they've got

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Speaker 1: a very good one this year. Market structure and the

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Speaker 1: implications for monetary policy, and that encompasses a lot of

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Speaker 1: things including electronic trading and dark pools and all that

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Speaker 1: sort of stuff, But it's not directly related to monetary

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Speaker 1: policy today. So we'll have to see what the papers

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Speaker 1: tell us about where economists think the whole market structure

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Speaker 1: is going. But the conference itself is not going to

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Speaker 1: produce any kind of consensus or any kind of uh

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Speaker 1: ah ha moment. You remember, I know, you know Michael

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Speaker 1: Woodber a couple of years he had a paper here

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Speaker 1: that was very influential about forward guidance, forward guidance. In

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Speaker 1: the minute yesterday, they're talking about perhaps they're going to

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Speaker 1: finally drop that and whether it worked or not. But

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Speaker 1: nothing like expected from this, particularly in John Farrell a

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Speaker 1: year ago or two years ago that the paper of

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Speaker 1: Marvin good Friend on negative interest rates had a heated

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Speaker 1: debate as well. Yeah, Mike, just to get to Friday

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Speaker 1: with these speech from Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell. All

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Speaker 1: we know so far discussing monosty policy in a changing economy.

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Speaker 1: What's expected from in tomorrow? We don't really know. You know,

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Speaker 1: this has been uh this committee, this meeting is I

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Speaker 1: think this is the forty second annual meeting, and forty

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Speaker 1: of them have had rather bland keynote speeches from FED

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Speaker 1: chairs or they're designated representative, and two of them from

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Speaker 1: Ben Burniki in two thousand nine and two felt the

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Speaker 1: stage for future FED policy action, and so the markets

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Speaker 1: really started to focus on what the chair says here.

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Speaker 1: And I suppose as Jay Powell could offer something that

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Speaker 1: we're not in crisis, and uh, it doesn't seem to

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Speaker 1: be a need for him to make news here, So

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Speaker 1: my guess is he won't, but there's always that possibility,

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Speaker 1: so you've got to pay attention. Yeah, Mike, it just

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Speaker 1: seems to me at the moment that we're not in crisis.

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Speaker 1: Were certainly not anything but the part of opposite, I

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Speaker 1: would say, But it does seem that we're moving towards

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Speaker 1: an inflection point in the mind of some strategist that

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Speaker 1: we speak to on a daily basis, waiting to see

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Speaker 1: if they slow down on rates or if they slow

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Speaker 1: down with the balance sheet. Where do you think the

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Speaker 1: focus lies right now with rates or on the balance sheets.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to change the balance sheet unless somebody

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Speaker 1: really really forces them to. If something happens, what you

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Speaker 1: might see is that they end the balance introduction a

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Speaker 1: little sooner. If we continue to see some of the

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Speaker 1: reactions that we have seen, because they may discover they've

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Speaker 1: always said that they're going to bring the balance sheet

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Speaker 1: down to the level needed to conduct effective voluntary policy

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Speaker 1: and keep the banking system operating well, and they may

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Speaker 1: need more reserves than they thought. Um, we're going into

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Speaker 1: the rection. But that's on autopilot. They don't want people

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Speaker 1: to see that as a tool of policy right now.

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Speaker 1: They want people to just let that run in the

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Speaker 1: background and focus on rates. Now, Michael, this is really important.

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Speaker 1: John Farrell, we're trying to get out to Wyoming only

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Speaker 1: if you you know, he's got to go out there

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Speaker 1: with you. Is he tough enough to do the static

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Speaker 1: Peak Divide hike? Or has John got to do the

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Speaker 1: string Lake Loup HiPE to get all that good scenery,

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Speaker 1: but you know it's an easier hike. What should he

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Speaker 1: be doing? Oh? I think he should do both, um,

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Speaker 1: And it's definitely worth it, and John John is definitely

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Speaker 1: strong enough for that. I'm like, yeah, who will not

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Speaker 1: be mentioned, But I think if we put him in

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Speaker 1: a cowboy hat and boots, it'll be interesting to see

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Speaker 1: what he looks like. We'll take him to the rodeo.

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Speaker 1: I would do the rodeo would be a good look

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Speaker 1: for me. Can we just do the hike with a

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Speaker 1: helicopter and well, we take the ski. We took the

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Speaker 1: Sikorski when year out. But you know the altitude, it's

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Speaker 1: like serious, you're Mike, how how tall? How what's the

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Speaker 1: altitude at Jackson Hole? I think we're around uh seven

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Speaker 1: or eight thousand. Yeah, it's enough to you know, lays

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Speaker 1: away the afternoons, Michael McKee, thank you so much with

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Speaker 1: important interviews, including Mr Camplin of Dallas. In a third

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Speaker 1: or fourth or fifth or sixth week of August, summer

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Speaker 1: sets in with distractions, the news flow being part of

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Speaker 1: that distraction. Jackson Hole with a bunch of interesting interviews now,

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Speaker 1: but overnight nine hours ago, the President tweets out on

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Speaker 1: South Africa. I have asked Secretary of State Pompeio to

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Speaker 1: closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures and

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Speaker 1: expropriations and the large scale killing of farmers. Quote. South

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Speaker 1: African government is now seizing land from white farmers unquote.

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Speaker 1: And he credits this observation from his watching h. Tucker

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Speaker 1: Carlson over at Fox News as well and then John Farrell.

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Speaker 1: The headline that follows on at one forty four in

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg is something really I don't think I've ever

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Speaker 1: seen South Africa to summon US ambassador. Yeah, I don't

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Speaker 1: believe I've ever seen that. It's diplomacy has changed a lot.

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Speaker 1: It is a changed a lot. I'm a mombata in

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Speaker 1: our Johannisburg studio and joins us. Now I'm a give

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Speaker 1: us some color here on how the government is responding

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Speaker 1: to the presidential tweet. Well, we've seen responses from all

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Speaker 1: over government, not only from the ruling party itself and

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Speaker 1: the presidency, but as well as from a position parties

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Speaker 1: really speaking out against President Trump's tweet and some of

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Speaker 1: the moments that were made there. We know that the

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Speaker 1: Foreign Affairs Minister Induesta Sulu has said that she will

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Speaker 1: be um communicating directly with the US's um Secretary of

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Speaker 1: State on this particular tip tweet to get more clarity,

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Speaker 1: and as you mentioned that the US is acting investor

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Speaker 1: that Jesi Lapin has been summoned to meet with some

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Speaker 1: of the representatives from the Department of the International Relations

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Speaker 1: on clarity, but also to just outline some of the

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Speaker 1: comments that were were put out by President Trump earlier today,

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Speaker 1: Amma in Batha, South Africa Economics and Government reported joining

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Speaker 1: us from South Africa a remarkable situation, Tom, And it's

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Speaker 1: just sort of makes you quite concerned about stirring up

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Speaker 1: the emotions of the apartheid in the same way the

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Speaker 1: Germans are very concerned about stirring up the emotions of

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Speaker 1: the nineteen But investors, for the people watching us, who

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Speaker 1: aren't watching Red Sox baseballer Manchester United, the fact is, John,

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Speaker 1: the news flow, the dynamics of this new technology of

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Speaker 1: news is stunning that we would have a tweet like

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Speaker 1: that from any president. It's out of judgment of this president.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what does the next president do? Do they

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Speaker 1: tweet as well? What I will say, Secretary Pompey was

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Speaker 1: getting a taste of what Secretary Tillison had to deal

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Speaker 1: with exactly. Why don't you bring who has some important

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Speaker 1: perspectives and and just to talk to you, not as

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Speaker 1: an effect strategist, but someone from South Africa walk me

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Speaker 1: through just how delicate this kind of situation is. Um, yes,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's it's it's it's, as you say, delicate

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Speaker 1: on almost every level. Insomuch as you know, historically UM

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Speaker 1: land was disproportionately allocated to white under their Part eight regime,

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Speaker 1: and you know they um, you know, so called Buntu

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Speaker 1: stan type UM misappropriations of land really were you know,

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Speaker 1: in terms of you know, really being allocated to white

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Speaker 1: farmers in particular was seen as a big part of

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Speaker 1: the legacy of a partid So you have that on

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Speaker 1: the one side, and of course then you have you

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Speaker 1: know what you have more recently, as a number of

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Speaker 1: white farmers have been killed as was mentioned in the tweet.

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Speaker 1: Although you know this is not no one's saying this

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Speaker 1: is orchestrated by the Government's just a very high crime

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Speaker 1: rate in South Africa. But beyond that, I think it's

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Speaker 1: you know, there's a certain sense that um a lot

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Speaker 1: of white South Africans and say, oh we now marching

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Speaker 1: down the road that Zimbabwe went down in terms of

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Speaker 1: its attempts at land reform, etcetera. So UM, look, I

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Speaker 1: think history has shown that land reform is a very tricky,

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Speaker 1: very very tricky thing to implement in a successful way. UM.

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Speaker 1: I would say the modern economy would tend to downgrade

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Speaker 1: the importance of land in terms of broader income distribution. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, the agriculture as a share of GDP is

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Speaker 1: tending to fall globally. It's becoming less important in the

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Speaker 1: new economies of this world really in a sense. So

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Speaker 1: in that sense, you know, maybe there's a little bit

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Speaker 1: more hope. I want to ask you this question now.

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Speaker 1: Is the co head of fect strategy at Deutsche Bank.

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Speaker 1: It was quite interesting to see the effects reaction to this.

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Speaker 1: I know we have a strong dollar story in the

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Speaker 1: m effects this morning, but quite clearly the rand was

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Speaker 1: the underperformer through the morning. Why is the South African

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Speaker 1: rand reacting to this? Well, we don't know really know

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Speaker 1: where this is all going, all right, So we don't

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Speaker 1: know is this an isolated tweet or is there something

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Speaker 1: at the US perhaps will take more seriously, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: will impact South Africa trade with the US. These are

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Speaker 1: you know, open questions when we presume not. But it's

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Speaker 1: not a total given really, And I said, if you

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Speaker 1: said to me twenty four hours ago, would we even

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Speaker 1: be talking about this with would this even be a

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Speaker 1: factor of any sort, I'd say absolutely not. And I'm Ruskin,

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Speaker 1: it's going to have you with us this morning. Thanks

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Speaker 1: Africa Deutsche Banks Global co head of Fax Strategy. Right now,

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Speaker 1: Francisco Blanche with US and what's so great about his

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Speaker 1: research and Bank of America Mary Lynch. Is it so

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Speaker 1: holistic across all of commodities, Francisco is an opening comment?

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Speaker 1: What are your most focus on now with the metals,

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Speaker 1: the soft oil, the rest of it? What has the

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Speaker 1: Francisco Blanche attention? Um, hey, Tom, thanks for having me

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Speaker 1: once again. UM. We are we are pretty focused on

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Speaker 1: on US policy right now. I mean we think US

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Speaker 1: policy is really driving the entire commodity complex. On one hand,

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Speaker 1: you have sanctions on Iran which are about to kick

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Speaker 1: in in the next couple of months. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: we have this whole trade trade war going on. Where

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Speaker 1: is the prices of soybeans and in the US versus

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Speaker 1: Brazil have have widened pretty dramatically because of the retailiation

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Speaker 1: and actions by China. Um and and honestly, the other

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Speaker 1: issue that's really uh a great area of focus is

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Speaker 1: what's happening to interest rates right I mean, that's really

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Speaker 1: knocking down the price of gold, the continued escalation in

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Speaker 1: US rates. So the commority complex is very influenceable right now.

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Speaker 1: Was himinating from Washington. Okay, but is gold Is it

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Speaker 1: a new gold? Is the calculus of gold, the dynamics

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Speaker 1: of gold. Is it like it's always better? Is it

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Speaker 1: a whole new beast? Now? You know, I think it's

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Speaker 1: like it's always been. Golds never responded well in environments

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Speaker 1: of rising rates and a strong dollar, and we are

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Speaker 1: getting exactly just that. Um. If you remember earlier in

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Speaker 1: the year, we had a weaker dollar environment, we had

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Speaker 1: the euro going into the one range, and we've retraced

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Speaker 1: pretty dramatically down to one fourteen and back to one

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Speaker 1: fifteen the last couple of days. But but effectively, um, effectively,

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Speaker 1: the the strength of US or has has had a

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Speaker 1: pretty negative effect on the gold price. UM. The correlation

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Speaker 1: between effects and gold still very very high. Francisco. Given

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Speaker 1: the fact that you are focused on US policy, I

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Speaker 1: imagine all the strategies getting into a room, look at

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Speaker 1: looking at each other and shrugging their shoulders. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's been very hard to sort of, uh came out

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Speaker 1: what the U S strategy is going to be. Have

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Speaker 1: you ever had such an uncertain backdrop given some of

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Speaker 1: the trade tensions, given the dollar that nobody can agree

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Speaker 1: on UH. Is this sort of uncharted territory for you.

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Speaker 1: I mean it is a little bit in territory story

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Speaker 1: in some ways, in some others. Remember, one huge change

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Speaker 1: in US policy at the last year was the big

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Speaker 1: tax changes that were pushed through UM and particularly the

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Speaker 1: corporate tax changes, which is have really beefed up the

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Speaker 1: stock market, the U S economy more worldly by by

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Speaker 1: basically putting more cash into into the hands of corporates.

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Speaker 1: And and and I mean clearly yes, I mean it's

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Speaker 1: it's been some degree with uncertainty, no doubt about it.

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Speaker 1: But but we were in a in an economy that's

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Speaker 1: growing up four percent. We're in the US. I think

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Speaker 1: the bigger question is how do the actions of the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration negatively impact others? Because the commodity complex UM

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Speaker 1: is highly interconnected to the to the world economy. So

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Speaker 1: we are focused on on U S policy and as

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Speaker 1: much as it is having spillower effects into China, which

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Speaker 1: as you know, is the main buyer of most commodities

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Speaker 1: except for maybe oil in terms of consumption basis UM.

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Speaker 1: But but but China is UH. The effects of the US,

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Speaker 1: the US various use policies on China are very very

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Speaker 1: important to us, and that's that's Frankly, if you ask

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Speaker 1: me what am I concerned about the next twelve months, Well,

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Speaker 1: I definitely concerned at US rates, about concerned about trade policy,

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Speaker 1: and uh, I'm also concerned about IRUN sanctions policy. But

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Speaker 1: I'm also very concerned about what was happening in China,

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Speaker 1: given how how how frail the Chinese economy could be

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Speaker 1: at this point before we run, what is your bet

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Speaker 1: then longer short? Where is the opportunity within all this um?

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Speaker 1: So we we still think that you don't want to

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Speaker 1: be too short oil in this environment. You want to

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Speaker 1: be more on the long side. We're calling for ninety

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Speaker 1: little oil for next year. We think wants to do

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Speaker 1: the tenons well for Brent w t I a litt

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Speaker 1: bit less. We think will be probably maybe eighty five.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean we we see prices moving a

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Speaker 1: lot higher because as you remove the world's fourth largest

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Speaker 1: seller of oil or our producer of oil in the market,

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Speaker 1: which is you run UM, you're gonna have a pretty

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Speaker 1: big vacuum here. Shale can no longer respond as fast

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Speaker 1: as it was for the last couple of years because

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Speaker 1: of pipeline constractions, there's pipeline constraints. We we haven't invested

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Speaker 1: in MLPs. You follow the MLP story, the master than

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Speaker 1: the partnership investment in midstream has been a bit of

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Speaker 1: a disaster. We don't have infrastructure to move oil out

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Speaker 1: of the U S right now, out of the US

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Speaker 1: at the premier base, and it's getting trapped in there.

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Speaker 1: And we're not gonna solve that for another twelve eighteen months,

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Speaker 1: just as the as the oil from around gets removed in.

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Speaker 1: And look, I mean we we've had some risk and

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Speaker 1: emerging markets in Turkey, namely in Argentina, but doesn't infected

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Speaker 1: the entire emerging market uh scene yet once Once it does,

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Speaker 1: then I'm going to get more berrish. But for the

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Speaker 1: time being, we still get positive data points from the

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Speaker 1: emerging world. And that doesn't mean story. We gotta leave

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Speaker 1: it there. But we have to have you back to

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Speaker 1: talk to us about this higher price for oil. Francisco Blanchard,

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Speaker 1: Bank of America, Mary Lynch. But right now, let us

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Speaker 1: look at the unraveling of the ruble. Bring up the

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Speaker 1: chart a few words. A dollar ruble right now, the

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Speaker 1: incredible stasis the oil success perhaps of Russia coming out

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Speaker 1: of the cry is just very good. And then here's

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Speaker 1: the unraveling and now this new leg up in ruble

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Speaker 1: weakness as well, Rich eternal, Whether this is black rock

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Speaker 1: in London, Nina, shake of Raslusson joining US from Berlin

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Speaker 1: as well, Nina, I guess it becomes international relations at

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Speaker 1: one point. But the weaker Ruble doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 1: part of the Russian calculus, Is that correct? I think

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Speaker 1: that for Russia, I mean the economic It was quite

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Speaker 1: clear that the economic hit based on the sanctions starting

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Speaker 1: orchestrated by the EU and the United States was always

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Speaker 1: something that it could weather. Because fundamentally, what has shifted

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Speaker 1: since the invasion of Crimea by Russia is that Russia

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Speaker 1: has come back with a bang to the international negotiating table.

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Speaker 1: You know, it was frozen out by the Western allies

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Speaker 1: after the invasion of Crimea, and since then, you know,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine has kind of fallen off the international agenda. Russia's

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Speaker 1: involvement in Syria, Russian kind of interference in the United States,

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Speaker 1: but all across the European countries as well, means that

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Speaker 1: Russia is certainly a player that all countries have to

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Speaker 1: contend with, which is very interesting. Therefore that Michael had

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Speaker 1: a meeting with Putin here in Berlin just last week,

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Speaker 1: and she's seeing this increasingly as Europe's relationships with Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump goes increasingly, so she increasingly sees Putin as somebody

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Speaker 1: who has to be part of the conversation. Putin has

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Speaker 1: managed to make himself look statesman like next to Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: rich eternal. I mean, let's go back to first principles here.

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Speaker 1: Is Russia a frontier economy? Is it an e M

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Speaker 1: economy or is it part of the G eight? So

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Speaker 1: Russia has been caught up in that I think the

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Speaker 1: volatility affecting many emerging markets over the last few months,

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Speaker 1: and that's been associated first and foremost with tightening financial

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Speaker 1: conditions and a rising dollar, which have exposed many markets

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Speaker 1: which have weaker fundamentals, weaker growth, larger external deficits. We've

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Speaker 1: then had a series of emerging market specific events, whether

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Speaker 1: it's in Turkey and Brazil and Argentina, which I think

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Speaker 1: I've had a significant knock on effect onto Russia. And

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Speaker 1: at the same time you're starting to see rising global

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Speaker 1: trade concerns and we've taught by the oil price earlier

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Speaker 1: being impacted and that's added to the impact on Russia

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Speaker 1: as well. So all these factors contributing to this foreign

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Speaker 1: exchange of volatility within the Russian market. In our view,

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Speaker 1: that's starting to create some opportunities. Actually in broader areas

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Speaker 1: of emerging markets, you've seen risk premium rise significantly. What

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Speaker 1: that What does that mean? It means cheaper valuations. I

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Speaker 1: mean investors being paid more for taking emerging market risk.

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Speaker 1: When when does that change? I don't know whether you

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Speaker 1: know there's going to be a catalyst where you kind

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Speaker 1: of feel comfortable so to take a position on some

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Speaker 1: of these weaker emerging markets. Wells right now we wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be stepping into some of the weaker areas with the

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Speaker 1: soft fundamentals. We don't see a immediate capitalyst for change.

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Speaker 1: But for long term investors, we do see very attractive

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Speaker 1: opportunities in those emerging markets which have been indirectly hit

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Speaker 1: by some of the capital outflows. Areas actually like China,

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Speaker 1: like India, and broadly Asia where you've seen money flow

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Speaker 1: out of emerging markets, not differentiating between those economies with

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Speaker 1: weak fundamentals and those with strong um I know Tom

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Speaker 1: actually has rubal charge. But I want to ask you

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Speaker 1: about dollar, because depending on what happens with dollar or

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Speaker 1: the outcome for these emerging markets can be very different

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Speaker 1: to their day. So the dollar has been playing a

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Speaker 1: critical role recently in the volatility within emerging markets. We

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Speaker 1: see the dollar continuing to rise going forward, but we

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Speaker 1: see that rise at a much more gradual pace. So

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Speaker 1: why is that. Well, first of all, we see that

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Speaker 1: the rising interest rates in the US, which has been

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Speaker 1: playing an important role driving the dollar higher, has been

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Speaker 1: to a large extent now priced into the market. We

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Speaker 1: see positioning towards the dollar, which was actually quite cautious

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Speaker 1: at the beginning of this year, becoming now very long.

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Speaker 1: So the marketing that that strong dollar view is at

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Speaker 1: widely held consensus view of the market. Many invested the

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Speaker 1: position for continued dollar strength, and whilst the fundamentals continue

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Speaker 1: to point for the dollar to move higher, our view

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Speaker 1: is actually that's likely to be less aggressive and less

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Speaker 1: disruptive for emerging markets, but for investors in emerging markets

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Speaker 1: would still recommend hard currency right now. Wonderful Richard Tonal,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for black Rock leadership. Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much to the rest of us and from Berlin

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Speaker 1: as well. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio