WEBVTT - Ep 110 Influenza, Take 2: Fowl Play

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<v Speaker 1>H five N one is an interloper, an unrefined newcomer,

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<v Speaker 1>all fury without the seasoning of age in human cells.

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<v Speaker 1>It has discovered a fresh target, and it pursues its

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<v Speaker 1>prey deep into the body, penetrating much farther than ordinary flu.

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<v Speaker 1>This novel virus advances on the lungs themselves, attacking the

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<v Speaker 1>branches of the bronchial tree and the myriad little buds

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<v Speaker 1>on their tips called alveoli, where the life sustaining task

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<v Speaker 1>of exchanging carbon dioxide for oxygen occurs. The pathogen infects

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<v Speaker 1>the coating of mucus that protects the membranes of the lungs.

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<v Speaker 1>This newcomer penetrates into the tissue itself. It spreads farther,

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<v Speaker 1>often infecting both lungs at nearly the same time. As

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<v Speaker 1>the pathogen relentlessly erodes the cells of the deep lung,

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<v Speaker 1>you find yourself increasingly short of breath. Your cough is

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<v Speaker 1>often bloody, and you may bleed from your nose and

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<v Speaker 1>even gums. The human body, which has never encountered anything

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<v Speaker 1>like it, has no ready arsenal of antibodies to choke

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<v Speaker 1>off the process. The body can still marshal its innate

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<v Speaker 1>all purpose defenses, but in doing so, it mounts a

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<v Speaker 1>counter attack so furious that some scientists believe it's more

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<v Speaker 1>lethal than the virus itself. The body throws everything it

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<v Speaker 1>has at the intruder, without regard to the tremendous collateral damage.

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<v Speaker 1>This causes the lungs themselves ever more. Immune cells are

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<v Speaker 1>summoned to the front and continue to blast away. The

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<v Speaker 1>carnage mounts. The lung cavities fill with dead and damaged tissue,

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<v Speaker 1>mutilated mucous cells, and other cellular wreckage. The lungs become

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<v Speaker 1>rigid as the cells that make the liquid to keep

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<v Speaker 1>the lungs flexible are annihilated. The seal between the bloodstream

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<v Speaker 1>and the air passages ruptures, red blood cells and plasma

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<v Speaker 1>leak into the lungs. The alveoli sacs are swamped with

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<v Speaker 1>fluid and debris and are no longer able to exchange

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<v Speaker 1>carbon dioxide for oxygen. If you listen closely, you can

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<v Speaker 1>hear the liquid crackling. Your breathing accelerates. You desperately press

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<v Speaker 1>all your chest muscles into helping you suck down precious oxygen.

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<v Speaker 1>You're gasping for air. You're drowning. But the virus is

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<v Speaker 1>not content to remain a solely respiratory disease. It invades

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<v Speaker 1>the digestive tract, often causing diarrhea and sometimes vomiting. It

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<v Speaker 1>can assault the liver in kidneys, it can provoke heart failure.

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<v Speaker 1>It can attack the eyes. It can even breach the

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<v Speaker 1>brain and spine. Yet, in the end, the lungs are

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<v Speaker 1>where this microbe concentrates its energies and takes its heaviest toll.

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<v Speaker 1>The lungs are also the means by which it casts

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<v Speaker 1>its net for further prey. In this one regard, it

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<v Speaker 1>is much like its seasonal cousin. They both spread their

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<v Speaker 1>sickness through contaminated droplets coughed or sneezed into the air,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most efficient forms of transmission known.

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<v Speaker 2>It is so terrifying.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it somehow scarier because of covid or just scarier

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<v Speaker 1>because we've read more about other pathogens and finally have

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<v Speaker 1>a like more of a respect or appreciation for flu

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<v Speaker 1>I think both.

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<v Speaker 2>I think.

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<v Speaker 3>I think in large part it's probably COVID. I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's living something that is in many ways so similar

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<v Speaker 3>and so terrifying, and knowing that it not just has

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<v Speaker 3>happened again historically, but like it just happened, and now

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to talk about how it can happen again

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<v Speaker 3>and potentially be much worse.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And by can happen again, likely will happen again. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's yeah. So that first hand account was from a

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<v Speaker 1>book titled The Fatal Strain on the Trail of Avian

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<v Speaker 1>Flu and the Coming Pandemic, and that was written by

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<v Speaker 1>Alan Cipres and it was published in two thousand and nine.

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<v Speaker 3>I think I read that for our first influenza episode.

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<v Speaker 1>I think you did. I think it's on our sources. Yeah. Hi,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Aaron Welsh and I'm Erin Alman Updyke, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is this podcast will Kill You, And.

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<v Speaker 3>Today we're revisiting our very first ever topic, influenza.

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<v Speaker 2>We are.

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<v Speaker 1>It's our season finale celebration. Yeah, kind of a somber celebration.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think that, you know, given the news about

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<v Speaker 1>Avian influenza this year and the timeliness of this, we

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<v Speaker 1>really wanted the opportunity to kind of go back and

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<v Speaker 1>redo re explore this pathogen that is is so utterly

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<v Speaker 1>terrifying and there's so much information out there about it

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<v Speaker 1>that it really deserves not only like just a second episode,

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<v Speaker 1>but also an entire series.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, one could certainly argue that.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, so that's what we're doing this episode, kind

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<v Speaker 1>of like talking about all of the different bits that

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<v Speaker 1>we didn't cover in our first episode, which is quite

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<v Speaker 1>a lot. And I think also one of our aims

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<v Speaker 1>is to bring us up to speed more about today

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<v Speaker 1>with a particular focus on Avian influenza.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, a lot has changed since Tantine and we've learned

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<v Speaker 3>a lot more, so it's going to be exciting to

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<v Speaker 3>kind of bring it all back together.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, should we start off with quarantiny time?

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<v Speaker 3>We should?

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<v Speaker 2>We certainly should.

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<v Speaker 1>What are we drinking this week?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we're drinking none other than H one Drink Too.

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<v Speaker 2>I love it.

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<v Speaker 1>So for those of you who haven't listened to our

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<v Speaker 1>very first Influenza episode, we can't blame you.

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<v Speaker 4>First of all necessarily recommending it, Nope, But it is

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<v Speaker 4>maybe pertinent to this part of the episode to know

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<v Speaker 4>that our very first Quarantini was called H one Drink one.

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<v Speaker 2>So this time stage one drink two. Yeah, and what

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<v Speaker 2>is in H one drink too?

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<v Speaker 1>Erin it is kind of a play on the Corpse Survivor,

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<v Speaker 1>So we did the corp Survivor number two for our

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<v Speaker 1>H one Drink one, our very first quarantini, and this

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<v Speaker 1>one we're kind of just doing a variation includes Apricot Liquor,

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<v Speaker 1>light rum, Lemon juice, and lil Itt Blanc and we

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<v Speaker 1>will post the full recipe on our website. This podcast

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<v Speaker 1>will kill You dot Com as well as on all

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<v Speaker 1>of our social media channels, so check it out.

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<v Speaker 3>And as a reminder, this is our season finale, so

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<v Speaker 3>do make sure that you are subscribed to whatever podcast

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<v Speaker 3>app you're listening to this on and to our social

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<v Speaker 3>media so that you don't miss when we drop our

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<v Speaker 3>next season.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't have an exact date for you yet. We're sorry,

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<v Speaker 1>but don't be worried. It won't be too It won't

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<v Speaker 1>be too long.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, any other business here?

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like there should be, but I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>there is. So let's just get started.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got a lot to cover.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's take a break and get started. So today we're

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<v Speaker 3>not going to repeat everything that you may have learned

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<v Speaker 3>in our very first episode, which covered influenza. But what

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<v Speaker 3>I do want to do in this biology section is

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<v Speaker 3>take what we learned in that episode and then expand

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<v Speaker 3>on it, but also realizing that that was five years ago,

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<v Speaker 3>and so most of us have probably forgotten or maybe.

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<v Speaker 2>Skipped over the first episode.

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<v Speaker 3>So what I'm going to do in this section is

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<v Speaker 3>talk about influenza viruses in general and then focus primarily

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<v Speaker 3>on bird flu or highly pathogenic avian influenza strains.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's going to be a lot of fun and

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<v Speaker 2>fun meaning.

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<v Speaker 3>Terrifying, okay, as we usually mean, but fascinating all right. So,

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<v Speaker 3>as a perhaps recap for many of us influenza viruses,

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<v Speaker 3>these are RNA viruses, not retroviruses, as I called them

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<v Speaker 3>in our very first ever episode. One of the most

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<v Speaker 3>biggest embarrassments of my life.

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<v Speaker 2>To this day.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it like one of those things that pops into

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<v Speaker 1>your head as you're trying to fall asleep.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, sometimes.

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<v Speaker 3>I called it a retrovirus on the internet.

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<v Speaker 1>Forever is tscript.

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<v Speaker 3>I did see the transcript that I was like in

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<v Speaker 3>the transcript, I like made jokes about it, like I

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<v Speaker 3>full on like went hard.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, it's not a retrovirus, but it is.

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<v Speaker 3>They are RNA viruses in the family Orthomixoviridae, and RNA

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<v Speaker 3>viruses in general not always, but is true for influenza

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<v Speaker 3>viruses tend to mutate much more rapidly than, for example,

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<v Speaker 3>DNA viruses, in large part because they lack good proofreading mechanisms.

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<v Speaker 3>So what happens very commonly with influenza viruses is that

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<v Speaker 3>small mutations can accumulate over time. And if these mutations

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<v Speaker 3>happen to be in regions of the genome that encode

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<v Speaker 3>the major surface proteins of influenza we'll talk about those

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<v Speaker 3>more in a second, aka the antigens, then that can

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<v Speaker 3>make it harder for our immune system to recognize those

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<v Speaker 3>antigens or recognize that virus, and this process is known

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<v Speaker 3>as antigenic drift.

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<v Speaker 2>This is one of the ways that influenza.

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<v Speaker 3>Viruses are particularly adept at evading our immune system and

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<v Speaker 3>why they're so tricky to target and interesting. But on

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<v Speaker 3>top of that, influenza virus genomes are made up of

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<v Speaker 3>multiple short strands of RNA rather than one big long strand.

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<v Speaker 3>And because as we'll talk in a lot of detail about,

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<v Speaker 3>there are so many different strains of influenza viruses. If

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<v Speaker 3>an animal like say a bird, is coinfected with multiple strains,

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<v Speaker 3>which is not at all uncommon. These segments of RNA

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<v Speaker 3>can mix and match inside of their cells and recombine

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<v Speaker 3>to form essentially brand new versions, brand new, unrecognizable strains

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<v Speaker 3>of influenza.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the.

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<v Speaker 3>Process of antigenic shift, and this amazing amount of variation

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<v Speaker 3>in viral strains is why influenza remains such a challenging

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<v Speaker 3>virus to combat in the form of vaccines, etc. But

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<v Speaker 3>let me actually back up even further for a second,

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<v Speaker 3>because when we say influenza virus, we're not talking about

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<v Speaker 3>a single influenza virus. There's actually four major classes of

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<v Speaker 3>influenza viruses ABC and also D, and when we talk

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<v Speaker 3>about influenza viruses in humans, we mostly mean influenza A

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<v Speaker 3>and to a lesser extent, influenza B. Influenza C does

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<v Speaker 3>circulate and causes disease in humans, but it's more like

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<v Speaker 3>a mild cold rather than what we think of as

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<v Speaker 3>the flu, and influenza D is mostly in cattle. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>So influenza B has two major lineages that circulate only

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<v Speaker 3>among humans. It's not a zoonotic virus, and while it

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<v Speaker 3>can cause a decent amount of disease in epidemics, seasonally

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<v Speaker 3>it's not a zoonotic virus, and it's not like the

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<v Speaker 3>major player in general when we think about influenza.

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<v Speaker 1>SO, I have a question about influenza B. So, from

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<v Speaker 1>my understanding, the vaccines that target you know, seasonal influenza A,

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<v Speaker 1>the influenza A strain that's in there might change from

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<v Speaker 1>year to year depending on what is predicted. But B

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't really seem to change. Why doesn't really change that much?

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<v Speaker 2>That's a good question.

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<v Speaker 3>There's only two major lineages of influenza B, so I

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<v Speaker 3>don't know as much detail because I didn't dig hardcore.

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<v Speaker 2>Into influenza B.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's likely just that there simply isn't as much

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<v Speaker 3>variation as what we see with influenza A.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so like fewer opportunities for combination are exactly gotcha.

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<v Speaker 3>Because it's not a zoonotic virus, it's only circulating among humans. Right. Interesting,

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<v Speaker 3>But let us now focus for pretty much the rest

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<v Speaker 3>of this episode on the biggest player, and that is

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<v Speaker 3>influenza A. So most people are probably familiar with classifications

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<v Speaker 3>of influenza A viruses, and those are H one N

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<v Speaker 3>one or H three N two. You've probably heard those

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<v Speaker 3>circulating around every time that there's a new strain that

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<v Speaker 3>causes an epidemic. Right, So those letters H and N

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<v Speaker 3>refer to two specific antigens on the influenza virus surface itself,

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<v Speaker 3>the H antigen hemaglutinin and the N antigen neuraminidase. You

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<v Speaker 3>don't have to remember those names, you could just remember HNN.

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<v Speaker 3>So the H proteins, you can think of these as

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<v Speaker 3>the proteins that bind to our cells and allow influenza

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<v Speaker 3>virus to actually enter our cells. Remember, of course, that

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<v Speaker 3>all viruses have to get into our cells in order

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<v Speaker 3>to be able to replicate. They rely on our machinery

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<v Speaker 3>to finish that process of replication. Influenza viruses are respiratory viruses, right,

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<v Speaker 3>so they predominantly are infecting the cells that line our

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<v Speaker 3>upper and lower respiratory tract. These H proteins on their

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<v Speaker 3>surface are what allow them to bind to these cells

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<v Speaker 3>in particular and enter those cells, Which means that these

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<v Speaker 3>H antigens especially are the ones that in theory and

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<v Speaker 3>in practice our immune system recognizes and if we are

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<v Speaker 3>able to block it, we can stop this virus from

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<v Speaker 3>entering our cells entirely.

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<v Speaker 1>Question. Okay, so the difference between upper and lower respiratory

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<v Speaker 1>tract and the differences in the HS, and are some

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<v Speaker 1>more adept at invading both the upper and lower or just.

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<v Speaker 3>The upper or yeah, a thousand percent?

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, okay? Which ones?

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:26.520
<v Speaker 2>Okay?

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 3>I can't give you an easy answer on that because

0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 3>it varies. The answer to all of these questions of

0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:38.840
<v Speaker 3>detail are probably going to be it depends because let

0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:42.560
<v Speaker 3>me keep going, and we'll see not just how much

0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:46.720
<v Speaker 3>variation there is, but like how terrifyingly much variation is Okay,

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:51.200
<v Speaker 3>love it? So we can't also forget about the n antigens.

0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:55.520
<v Speaker 3>These are involved in the process of once that virus

0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:58.320
<v Speaker 3>has replicated in our cells and is all packaged up

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 3>and ready to burst forth to go infect more cells,

0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.880
<v Speaker 3>the n antigens are what help influence a virus actually

0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:08.680
<v Speaker 3>release from inside of ourselves. That's what the n antigens

0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:13.520
<v Speaker 3>are doing. So another potential target, but a harder one

0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:15.960
<v Speaker 3>given that it's an intracellular site of action.

0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:17.040
<v Speaker 2>So it's really this.

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 3>H antigen that is the one that when we think

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 3>of vaccines, we're predominantly potentially targeting. And we'll get to

0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 3>all of that much later in the episode.

0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>It's interesting to think about from an evolutionary perspective, because

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:35.000
<v Speaker 1>it seems clear why there would be variation in H

0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:38.880
<v Speaker 1>in the hema glutenants, right, but the neuromidida is like,

0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.960
<v Speaker 1>what is the variation in that functionality?

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:47.000
<v Speaker 3>Ooh, that's a really good question. Yeah, I don't know, Okay, Yeah,

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.200
<v Speaker 3>it's really interesting though, Like what's the benefit of like

0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:53.240
<v Speaker 3>having different receptors to do the binding and releasing?

0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 2>Right?

0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 1>What is N one versus N two? Is there a

0:16:56.560 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 1>functional difference or is it just these are different enough different?

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:01.160
<v Speaker 4>Right?

0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:03.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, it's a good question.

0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:13.200
<v Speaker 3>So there are eighteen different major h antigens sixteen if

0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:15.400
<v Speaker 3>you don't count the ones that are mostly only found

0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:19.719
<v Speaker 3>in bats, and there are eleven or again nine if

0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:21.520
<v Speaker 3>you don't count the ones that are mostly only in

0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:26.240
<v Speaker 3>bats major n antigens. Knowing that you can combine h's

0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:30.280
<v Speaker 3>and ns in pretty much any configuration, that alone is

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:33.720
<v Speaker 3>a huge amount of potential for recombination and change, right,

0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 3>eighteen and eleven or even sixteen and nine, that's a

0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 3>ton of variation.

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 2>I can't do that.

0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:44.320
<v Speaker 3>Math no air and math, no air and math this episode.

0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.280
<v Speaker 3>But on top of that, you asked, like, what are

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 3>the differences between the different H andigens. Yeah, there is

0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 3>not just a difference between say H one and H two,

0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:59.280
<v Speaker 3>but because of the buildup of changes to these H

0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:05.120
<v Speaker 3>and antigen via that antigenic drift, via those small point mutations.

0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.520
<v Speaker 3>What that means is that not every version of H

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:13.520
<v Speaker 3>three and two is exactly the same. There are parts

0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.480
<v Speaker 3>of the H antigen and parts of the end antigen

0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:20.639
<v Speaker 3>that are more conserved, and there are other parts that

0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:24.480
<v Speaker 3>are much more variable even within like say H one

0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:30.360
<v Speaker 3>or H five. Interesting, it's fascinating, and yes, absolutely, these

0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:33.520
<v Speaker 3>different H antigens are going to have different affinities for

0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:37.720
<v Speaker 3>specific receptors on our epithelial cells, and that is going

0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 3>to determine which cells they invade and how readily. So

0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:46.520
<v Speaker 3>as we see with particular strains like H five N

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.119
<v Speaker 3>one in our first hand account that are able to

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:54.040
<v Speaker 3>invade lower respiratory tract very rapidly and even invade beyond

0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:58.480
<v Speaker 3>our respiratory tract, that's likely something that's largely mediated by

0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.639
<v Speaker 3>particular changes to H or possibly N antigen, allowing it

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:06.280
<v Speaker 3>to release more readily from certain cells than others.

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:09.560
<v Speaker 2>So that's all of this variation.

0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:12.679
<v Speaker 3>Let's get into more details of what we know about

0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.800
<v Speaker 3>influenza as a as an illness.

0:19:15.960 --> 0:19:17.480
<v Speaker 1>Okay, yeah, So.

0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 3>Influenza viruses, of course are respiratory viruses, which means that

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:27.000
<v Speaker 3>they're transmitted by droplets or aerosols when we cough, sneeze, talk, laugh,

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:30.840
<v Speaker 3>et cetera. There is also a lot of indirect transmission

0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:35.959
<v Speaker 3>via fomites like door handles, shared coffee cups, whatever you like,

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:40.280
<v Speaker 3>lick your hand and then touch, and this route of transmission,

0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:45.880
<v Speaker 3>in particular fomtes or like in more indirect transmission seems

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:47.879
<v Speaker 3>to be and is thought to be a pretty important

0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:51.000
<v Speaker 3>route of transmission, although because I figured you were going

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:54.200
<v Speaker 3>to ask aarin, I did not get a sense. And

0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:57.439
<v Speaker 3>the papers that I read actually suggested that influenza is

0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 3>not actually a very environmentally stable virus. And despite how

0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.400
<v Speaker 3>much we know about influenza, we still don't know enough

0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:09.120
<v Speaker 3>to be able to say, like the relative contribution of

0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:12.080
<v Speaker 3>this transmission rate versus that transmission route.

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 2>Does that make sense? Yeah?

0:20:13.320 --> 0:20:15.360
<v Speaker 1>You know me so well. These were literally the two

0:20:15.440 --> 0:20:18.400
<v Speaker 1>questions that was brimming like on the top of my touch.

0:20:18.560 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, preem to do you this time?

0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:20.760
<v Speaker 1>You did?

0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:24.359
<v Speaker 3>But in any case, you're breathing and sneezing this stuff

0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:28.200
<v Speaker 3>out because this is a virus that's primarily infecting our

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:34.639
<v Speaker 3>respiratory cells, the respiratory epithelium, and in general, the incubation

0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:39.600
<v Speaker 3>period for influenza is remarkably short. People are often symptomatic

0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:43.800
<v Speaker 3>by day two after inoculation, sometimes by day one, and

0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 3>almost always by day four, So like very short incubation period,

0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:50.640
<v Speaker 3>especially compared to a lot of things we've covered recently,

0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:55.720
<v Speaker 3>and people are generally infectious that is, high viral tiders

0:20:55.960 --> 0:21:00.680
<v Speaker 3>in their nasal epithelium up to twenty four hours before

0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:01.960
<v Speaker 3>symptoms begin.

0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:03.920
<v Speaker 1>Which is where the trouble starts.

0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:06.720
<v Speaker 3>It sure is, And if you think about it too,

0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:11.520
<v Speaker 3>that's like incredibly rapid how quickly this virus gets into ourselves,

0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:15.439
<v Speaker 3>starts replicating, bursts out, and is ready to spread. In

0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:20.560
<v Speaker 3>terms of who gets infected, everybody gets infected with influenza.

0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:24.080
<v Speaker 3>Some data suggests that it's actually children who are the

0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:27.640
<v Speaker 3>most likely to become infected, and the older you are,

0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:30.639
<v Speaker 3>the less likely you are to become infected. But when

0:21:30.680 --> 0:21:34.720
<v Speaker 3>it comes to severe infection and mortality, it's both children

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:37.560
<v Speaker 3>and older adults over age sixty five that are at

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.359
<v Speaker 3>highest risk of severe infection and death.

0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:43.360
<v Speaker 1>It's that classic U shaped mortality.

0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:47.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, in all but the nineteen eighteen pandemic.

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:48.119
<v Speaker 1>And of a few others.

0:21:48.119 --> 0:21:53.200
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, other people who are at particularly high risk

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.880
<v Speaker 3>of severe infection include people who are pregnant, and then

0:21:57.000 --> 0:22:02.000
<v Speaker 3>a lot of other comorbidities like heart failailiar pulmonary disease

0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:07.080
<v Speaker 3>of various kinds, cigarette smoking, immunal compromising conditions. All of

0:22:07.119 --> 0:22:10.359
<v Speaker 3>these things essentially just make it harder for our bodies

0:22:10.359 --> 0:22:13.760
<v Speaker 3>to fight off this infection or easier for us to

0:22:13.760 --> 0:22:16.880
<v Speaker 3>get infected with it in the first place. And I

0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:20.399
<v Speaker 3>think we're all probably familiar with the symptoms of the flu,

0:22:20.920 --> 0:22:23.199
<v Speaker 3>although I think a lot of people might confuse it

0:22:23.240 --> 0:22:26.400
<v Speaker 3>with any of another million viruses that we just call

0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:31.440
<v Speaker 3>the common cold, because influenza is not the common cold. No,

0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:37.800
<v Speaker 3>with influenza, you are sick. You are if you are symptomatic,

0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:39.240
<v Speaker 3>which not everyone.

0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:42.120
<v Speaker 1>Is, right, Okay, question real quick, well how many? Yeah,

0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:42.520
<v Speaker 1>thank you?

0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:44.239
<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

0:22:44.359 --> 0:22:47.200
<v Speaker 3>I actually didn't see that number reported very commonly.

0:22:47.840 --> 0:22:49.760
<v Speaker 1>That's so interesting because I feel like we know that

0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:51.880
<v Speaker 1>so well now for things like COVID.

0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:54.439
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, like we should know that, and I just somehow

0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:56.639
<v Speaker 3>missed it, but I didn't see it.

0:22:57.440 --> 0:23:00.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I mean, but presumably there are there's a

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:02.760
<v Speaker 1>subset of people who are asymptomatic.

0:23:02.200 --> 0:23:05.919
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, and asymptomatic carriers can still shed for even up

0:23:05.920 --> 0:23:08.680
<v Speaker 3>to six days, which is generally how long people shed.

0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:10.960
<v Speaker 2>Okay, but yeah, you're sick.

0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:16.880
<v Speaker 3>You have a fever, you have muscle aches, full body,

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:21.480
<v Speaker 3>like your entire body is aching. Your throat is sore

0:23:21.720 --> 0:23:26.240
<v Speaker 3>and it's red. Your nose is probably runny. You're coughing.

0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:30.240
<v Speaker 3>You're possibly coughing so hard that you're hurting your ribs.

0:23:30.440 --> 0:23:34.200
<v Speaker 3>You feel like you're coughing your brains out. And this

0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:37.600
<v Speaker 3>is if you have a mild infection. In this case,

0:23:37.720 --> 0:23:41.840
<v Speaker 3>symptoms last seven to ten days, so it's not just

0:23:42.040 --> 0:23:44.760
<v Speaker 3>a few days that you're feeling creuddy. You're feeling bad

0:23:44.800 --> 0:23:45.919
<v Speaker 3>for a long time.

0:23:46.160 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And if.

0:23:48.760 --> 0:23:52.040
<v Speaker 3>Or when this virus makes its way into your lower

0:23:52.040 --> 0:23:56.439
<v Speaker 3>respiratory tract, it can then cause a viral pneumonia. It

0:23:56.480 --> 0:24:01.120
<v Speaker 3>can progress to an acute respiratory distress, which can then

0:24:01.320 --> 0:24:06.359
<v Speaker 3>progress to shock and potentially death. One of the primary

0:24:06.440 --> 0:24:09.199
<v Speaker 3>drivers that determines if someone is going to have a

0:24:09.280 --> 0:24:13.560
<v Speaker 3>severe infection versus a less severe infection Besides just what

0:24:13.760 --> 0:24:17.760
<v Speaker 3>strain of the virus is, it is how far down

0:24:17.880 --> 0:24:21.880
<v Speaker 3>into that respiratory tract did the virus invade? And this

0:24:22.080 --> 0:24:25.000
<v Speaker 3>is probably determined by a whole number of factors, like

0:24:25.119 --> 0:24:29.800
<v Speaker 3>our individual immune response, largely how well did we tolerate

0:24:29.960 --> 0:24:33.200
<v Speaker 3>versus resist that virus in the upper respiratory tract before

0:24:33.280 --> 0:24:36.600
<v Speaker 3>it tried to travel down, What strategies did our immune

0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:37.640
<v Speaker 3>system employ.

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:38.680
<v Speaker 2>Like and how effective were they?

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:42.639
<v Speaker 3>But then also likely some degree of infectious dose, like

0:24:42.720 --> 0:24:45.680
<v Speaker 3>how much of the virus were we exposed to, how big.

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:46.880
<v Speaker 2>Of a load did we have to fight off?

0:24:47.320 --> 0:24:49.800
<v Speaker 3>And then of course the strain of the virus itself,

0:24:49.920 --> 0:24:52.680
<v Speaker 3>like how virulent is it, how big of an affinity

0:24:52.680 --> 0:24:55.560
<v Speaker 3>does it have for those lower cells versus our upper cells.

0:24:56.960 --> 0:25:01.000
<v Speaker 3>And on top of that, because this virus and our

0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:03.639
<v Speaker 3>immune response to it can cause so much damage to

0:25:03.680 --> 0:25:08.800
<v Speaker 3>our lungs, Influenza virus, especially viral pneumonia, can put people

0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:13.679
<v Speaker 3>at significantly higher risk of a superimposed bacterial pneumonia, especially

0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:17.080
<v Speaker 3>from a Staph aureus or a Streptococcus pneumonia.

0:25:17.560 --> 0:25:23.800
<v Speaker 1>Right, okay, question about the nomenclature I guess of influenza

0:25:23.840 --> 0:25:27.119
<v Speaker 1>A viruses, So we know the h's, we know the ends,

0:25:27.600 --> 0:25:31.639
<v Speaker 1>but then there are variations within a particular H and

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:35.840
<v Speaker 1>N pairing, So like how does that work and how

0:25:35.840 --> 0:25:36.800
<v Speaker 1>do we refer to those?

0:25:37.280 --> 0:25:40.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, there's not good ways to refer to them.

0:25:40.440 --> 0:25:41.120
<v Speaker 2>The ones I've seen.

0:25:41.119 --> 0:25:45.359
<v Speaker 3>It's usually like H three and two strain B three

0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:47.760
<v Speaker 3>dot four dot five dot two two two.

0:25:47.760 --> 0:25:48.600
<v Speaker 1>Or something like that.

0:25:49.680 --> 0:25:53.480
<v Speaker 3>So there's like there are like specific strains and sometimes

0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:55.639
<v Speaker 3>two they're still named by like the first place that

0:25:55.680 --> 0:25:58.119
<v Speaker 3>they were discovered or the year that they were discovered.

0:25:58.200 --> 0:26:01.479
<v Speaker 3>So there's a lot when we have particular strains that

0:26:01.560 --> 0:26:07.320
<v Speaker 3>have say become epidemics or have caused really big outbreaks

0:26:07.320 --> 0:26:11.160
<v Speaker 3>in birds, or or spilled over into humans a particular

0:26:11.240 --> 0:26:13.480
<v Speaker 3>number of times or something like that, then they do

0:26:13.520 --> 0:26:16.359
<v Speaker 3>tend to get more specific names. But they're not like

0:26:16.520 --> 0:26:22.480
<v Speaker 3>nice friendly names, yeah, to like easily be liked, you know, right,

0:26:23.040 --> 0:26:25.879
<v Speaker 3>They're very very viral names, if that makes sense.

0:26:25.920 --> 0:26:26.760
<v Speaker 1>Unfriendly names.

0:26:26.920 --> 0:26:30.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:26:30.200 --> 0:26:31.800
<v Speaker 3>But so this is where I want to kind of

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:36.920
<v Speaker 3>shift focus and talk more specifically about the bird flu

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:42.160
<v Speaker 3>or highly pathogenic avian influenza strains. So it turns out

0:26:42.520 --> 0:26:48.159
<v Speaker 3>that when you hear talk about avian influenza in some respects.

0:26:48.280 --> 0:26:51.720
<v Speaker 3>We're kind of talking about nearly all influenza A strains.

0:26:51.960 --> 0:26:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, yeah.

0:26:54.320 --> 0:26:58.760
<v Speaker 3>The primary natural reservoirs for influenza A viruses are birds,

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:03.119
<v Speaker 3>especially aquatic birds like ducks and geese and swans and

0:27:03.320 --> 0:27:06.880
<v Speaker 3>gulls and like those cute little sandpiper things on the beach.

0:27:08.240 --> 0:27:09.639
<v Speaker 2>Lots of cute little water birds.

0:27:11.000 --> 0:27:13.399
<v Speaker 3>With the exception of a few strains that are found

0:27:13.600 --> 0:27:17.119
<v Speaker 3>predominantly in bats and not really other places, the vast

0:27:17.160 --> 0:27:21.200
<v Speaker 3>majority of influenza A strains have birds as their natural reservoir.

0:27:22.400 --> 0:27:26.960
<v Speaker 3>These strains, the vast majority of them in both wild

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:31.240
<v Speaker 3>and domestic birds, are what we call low pathogenicity strains

0:27:31.359 --> 0:27:36.720
<v Speaker 3>or LPAI, So in the birds they infect, they don't

0:27:36.760 --> 0:27:39.520
<v Speaker 3>cause a lot of disease. They might not cause any disease,

0:27:39.640 --> 0:27:45.400
<v Speaker 3>but they can circulate very readily. However, some strains, especially

0:27:45.440 --> 0:27:48.960
<v Speaker 3>those of the H seven and H five and I

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:55.160
<v Speaker 3>think H nine varieties, have emerged as being highly pathogenic

0:27:55.520 --> 0:28:01.399
<v Speaker 3>aka HPAI. And it's very likely that the strains emerge

0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:06.400
<v Speaker 3>by a number of mechanisms, but antigenic shift and antigenic

0:28:06.520 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 3>drift that I talked about earlier play a really big role,

0:28:11.040 --> 0:28:16.680
<v Speaker 3>especially reassortment leading to antigenic shift, and this can happen

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:20.679
<v Speaker 3>in a couple different ways. In wild birds. Many of

0:28:20.680 --> 0:28:23.840
<v Speaker 3>the aquatic bird species that I mentioned, like ducks and

0:28:23.880 --> 0:28:27.680
<v Speaker 3>geese and gulls, tend to roost in really large numbers,

0:28:28.520 --> 0:28:32.919
<v Speaker 3>and because many of these influenza virus strains are low pathogenicity,

0:28:33.359 --> 0:28:35.800
<v Speaker 3>it's easy for a lot of these different strains to

0:28:35.840 --> 0:28:40.880
<v Speaker 3>circulate in a particular population. But one thing that can

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:45.800
<v Speaker 3>happen is that these low pathogenicity duck strains, for example,

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:51.400
<v Speaker 3>can pop over into our lovely food system aka poultry farms,

0:28:52.160 --> 0:28:58.400
<v Speaker 3>which are also extremely dense, generally quite unsanitary, beautiful mixing

0:28:58.440 --> 0:28:59.760
<v Speaker 3>grounds for viruses.

0:29:01.400 --> 0:29:02.040
<v Speaker 2>In both of.

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:05.280
<v Speaker 3>These scenarios, both in large roots of wild birds and

0:29:05.680 --> 0:29:09.920
<v Speaker 3>in poultry farms, it's very easy for these different strains

0:29:10.000 --> 0:29:14.200
<v Speaker 3>to mix in a single animal, recombine, and potentially gain

0:29:14.280 --> 0:29:18.440
<v Speaker 3>traits that lend themselves to higher pathogenicity or virulence in

0:29:18.480 --> 0:29:22.320
<v Speaker 3>the process. And what we can see then happen when

0:29:22.480 --> 0:29:26.800
<v Speaker 3>these highly pathogenic avian influenza strains emerge is kind of

0:29:26.920 --> 0:29:32.120
<v Speaker 3>three major things, all of which are terrifying. Number one,

0:29:32.480 --> 0:29:35.480
<v Speaker 3>it can result in outbreaks in wild birds, which can

0:29:35.560 --> 0:29:38.360
<v Speaker 3>result in massive die offs of wild birds, which is

0:29:38.560 --> 0:29:42.200
<v Speaker 3>not good for the environment or the birds. Number Two,

0:29:42.480 --> 0:29:46.080
<v Speaker 3>we can see outbreaks in poultry at domestic poultry, either

0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:50.440
<v Speaker 3>directly from spillover events or because these highly pathogenic strains

0:29:50.440 --> 0:29:53.680
<v Speaker 3>emerged in the domestic birds themselves, which can.

0:29:53.560 --> 0:29:54.880
<v Speaker 2>Cause massive die offs.

0:29:55.200 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 3>That also can result in the culling of flocks, which

0:29:58.360 --> 0:30:03.040
<v Speaker 3>means people might lose substantial income. This can also result

0:30:03.120 --> 0:30:07.480
<v Speaker 3>in spill back into wild bird populations, so you then

0:30:07.560 --> 0:30:11.200
<v Speaker 3>have both domestic and wild bird deaths. And then, of

0:30:11.240 --> 0:30:14.240
<v Speaker 3>course there's the thing that makes public health professionals so worried,

0:30:14.320 --> 0:30:18.880
<v Speaker 3>and that is number three. These highly pathogenic avian influenza

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:23.360
<v Speaker 3>strains can spill over into human populations and potentially cause

0:30:23.600 --> 0:30:26.560
<v Speaker 3>very severe disease. And this has happened.

0:30:26.960 --> 0:30:32.560
<v Speaker 1>Oh, it happens, and it's scary. And I think that

0:30:33.280 --> 0:30:37.840
<v Speaker 1>we've definitely touched on this topic several times. The evolution

0:30:38.320 --> 0:30:42.880
<v Speaker 1>of virulence and why not all viruses or not all

0:30:42.880 --> 0:30:48.120
<v Speaker 1>pathogens will just become nicer to us over time. Yea,

0:30:48.280 --> 0:30:52.200
<v Speaker 1>they may evolve to become more virulent. And poultry farms

0:30:52.200 --> 0:30:54.360
<v Speaker 1>are a great example of this. Right when you have

0:30:54.440 --> 0:30:57.360
<v Speaker 1>like a ton of birds crowding in one space and

0:30:57.400 --> 0:31:02.480
<v Speaker 1>it's really dirty and they're there's no escaping. Yeah, then

0:31:02.680 --> 0:31:05.680
<v Speaker 1>it makes more sense to like ramp up as a virus.

0:31:05.760 --> 0:31:09.040
<v Speaker 1>It makes more sense to ramp up your replication and

0:31:09.120 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 1>just cause widespread infection. And there aren't many drivers for

0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:15.719
<v Speaker 1>decreased virulence necessarily.

0:31:15.520 --> 0:31:18.000
<v Speaker 3>Right, because that virus is going to be able to

0:31:18.000 --> 0:31:22.000
<v Speaker 3>spread so easily and quickly through a population. It doesn't

0:31:22.040 --> 0:31:24.680
<v Speaker 3>matter if it kills its host really rapidly, it's still

0:31:24.680 --> 0:31:27.200
<v Speaker 3>going to have time to spread, especially in the case

0:31:27.320 --> 0:31:30.320
<v Speaker 3>of an influenza virus which is replicating so rapidly to

0:31:30.320 --> 0:31:31.600
<v Speaker 3>begin with exactly.

0:31:31.640 --> 0:31:35.400
<v Speaker 1>And there have been different estimates of the mutation rate

0:31:35.600 --> 0:31:38.560
<v Speaker 1>or the rate of evolution of influenza viruses based on

0:31:38.600 --> 0:31:43.400
<v Speaker 1>different hosts, and certainly domestic poultry is top.

0:31:44.920 --> 0:31:49.600
<v Speaker 3>That's terrifying, it is. And what's even more terrifying is,

0:31:49.640 --> 0:31:53.760
<v Speaker 3>like we said, this has happened one strain in particular.

0:31:53.840 --> 0:31:58.280
<v Speaker 3>Though several HPAI strains have spilled over into humans, one

0:31:58.320 --> 0:32:01.840
<v Speaker 3>strain in particular, H five N one has spilled over

0:32:02.120 --> 0:32:06.440
<v Speaker 3>handfuls of times, dozens of times into human populations, either

0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:08.440
<v Speaker 3>usually from domestic.

0:32:08.160 --> 0:32:09.200
<v Speaker 2>Or wild birds.

0:32:09.960 --> 0:32:13.560
<v Speaker 3>And when this strain has spilled over into humans, it

0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:18.480
<v Speaker 3>has caused severe infections, with mortality rates of fifty to

0:32:18.640 --> 0:32:24.360
<v Speaker 3>sixty percent. In general, so far, these outbreaks have shown

0:32:24.600 --> 0:32:29.640
<v Speaker 3>relatively limited human to human transmission, which is good for now.

0:32:30.560 --> 0:32:34.720
<v Speaker 3>But the real worry is how many additional mutations would

0:32:34.760 --> 0:32:37.760
<v Speaker 3>it take in a human or even in the bird

0:32:37.840 --> 0:32:39.240
<v Speaker 3>before it makes it into humans.

0:32:39.520 --> 0:32:40.280
<v Speaker 2>For one of.

0:32:40.240 --> 0:32:44.680
<v Speaker 3>These highly pathogenic avian strains to maintain that same level

0:32:44.720 --> 0:32:47.880
<v Speaker 3>of virulence but with more efficient human to human transmission,

0:32:48.360 --> 0:32:52.680
<v Speaker 3>that would be something devastating. And then there's really interesting

0:32:52.760 --> 0:32:56.440
<v Speaker 3>questions as to why do these particular strains cause such

0:32:56.640 --> 0:32:59.680
<v Speaker 3>severe disease in humans? And part of it, as we

0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:02.720
<v Speaker 3>actually heard in our first hand account, is that in

0:33:02.760 --> 0:33:05.400
<v Speaker 3>the case of H five N one, we have evidence

0:33:05.400 --> 0:33:09.720
<v Speaker 3>that this strain in particular causes extra pulmonary infection a

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:13.640
<v Speaker 3>lot more readily than most other influenza viruses. So it's

0:33:13.680 --> 0:33:18.000
<v Speaker 3>not only infecting the respiratory tract, it's infecting other tissue

0:33:18.000 --> 0:33:18.640
<v Speaker 3>types as well.

0:33:19.040 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 1>How is it doing that We don't know.

0:33:21.840 --> 0:33:26.800
<v Speaker 3>Necessarily, there's a relatively limited number of human cases that

0:33:26.840 --> 0:33:29.160
<v Speaker 3>have happened so far, and so there's not a ton

0:33:29.200 --> 0:33:32.800
<v Speaker 3>of data on like in VVO anything when it comes

0:33:32.800 --> 0:33:36.600
<v Speaker 3>to age five N one, so we still don't know. Also,

0:33:36.760 --> 0:33:39.760
<v Speaker 3>how much of the damage of this virus in this

0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:46.000
<v Speaker 3>strain is due to direct viral cytopathic effects versus what

0:33:46.120 --> 0:33:51.280
<v Speaker 3>a huge amount of immune system response it stimulates. But

0:33:51.920 --> 0:33:56.880
<v Speaker 3>in either case, the mortality rate is it's terrifying. Yeah,

0:33:56.920 --> 0:33:59.400
<v Speaker 3>and we'll talk a lot more later on about how

0:33:59.520 --> 0:34:03.560
<v Speaker 3>much these viruses continue to circulate and spread among domestic

0:34:03.600 --> 0:34:08.759
<v Speaker 3>foul populations in particular. So it's really something that worries

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:10.759
<v Speaker 3>a lot of public health professionals.

0:34:11.040 --> 0:34:16.400
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, when we talk about species barriers and why

0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:21.839
<v Speaker 1>some influenza viruses that infect birds don't infect humans, what

0:34:22.160 --> 0:34:25.400
<v Speaker 1>is that barrier specifically, Like, what is it about that

0:34:25.719 --> 0:34:29.080
<v Speaker 1>H or that N or whatever that prevents that virus

0:34:29.120 --> 0:34:30.360
<v Speaker 1>from infecting humans.

0:34:30.680 --> 0:34:33.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, a lot of it is likely the H factor,

0:34:34.360 --> 0:34:40.040
<v Speaker 3>and just what particular residues on, say duck respiratory or

0:34:40.120 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 3>GI epithelial cells, because in birds, influenza viruses infect both

0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:48.719
<v Speaker 3>the respiratory and the GI tract often, So it's probably

0:34:48.880 --> 0:34:52.279
<v Speaker 3>just that we don't have as many of those same receptors,

0:34:52.560 --> 0:34:54.759
<v Speaker 3>or we don't have receptors in places that are as

0:34:54.800 --> 0:34:57.799
<v Speaker 3>easy for that virus to get to and that's the

0:34:57.840 --> 0:34:59.840
<v Speaker 3>biggest That would be the biggest barrier. It would be

0:34:59.840 --> 0:35:02.280
<v Speaker 3>the receptors and being able to actually get into ourselves

0:35:02.280 --> 0:35:02.840
<v Speaker 3>in general.

0:35:03.360 --> 0:35:05.800
<v Speaker 2>Okay, there could be others interesting.

0:35:06.160 --> 0:35:12.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So that is the biology of influenza and influenza

0:35:12.239 --> 0:35:17.520
<v Speaker 3>a Aaron terrifying, terrifying. You want to tell me where

0:35:17.520 --> 0:35:21.480
<v Speaker 3>this sucker came from? And you know how all.

0:35:21.360 --> 0:35:25.560
<v Speaker 1>The rest, all the rest. I will do my best.

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:58.239
<v Speaker 1>Right after this break, before getting too deep into the

0:35:58.280 --> 0:36:01.560
<v Speaker 1>research for what I wanted to cover or this influenza

0:36:01.680 --> 0:36:04.680
<v Speaker 1>go around, I figured I should first check back through

0:36:04.719 --> 0:36:08.520
<v Speaker 1>the transcript from our first influenza episode, our very first

0:36:08.560 --> 0:36:09.520
<v Speaker 1>episode ever.

0:36:09.840 --> 0:36:12.640
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and then you immediately regretted it, just like I did.

0:36:12.680 --> 0:36:17.080
<v Speaker 1>One hundred percent. How how can anyone make any sense

0:36:17.120 --> 0:36:21.040
<v Speaker 1>of this? It's yeah, But I also wanted to see

0:36:21.080 --> 0:36:24.640
<v Speaker 1>what I covered, if anything, so that I didn't talk

0:36:24.680 --> 0:36:27.240
<v Speaker 1>about it again, like you said. Turns out I didn't

0:36:27.280 --> 0:36:29.960
<v Speaker 1>have to worry all that much about it because there

0:36:30.040 --> 0:36:34.960
<v Speaker 1>was just kind of disorganized mess everywhere. But it was

0:36:35.040 --> 0:36:38.680
<v Speaker 1>really interesting to skim through to see what I didn't cover,

0:36:38.840 --> 0:36:41.719
<v Speaker 1>like what questions I still had about the history of

0:36:41.760 --> 0:36:45.800
<v Speaker 1>the influenza virus, especially in terms of its evolutionary history

0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:49.960
<v Speaker 1>and avian influenza, and then that is sort of what

0:36:50.000 --> 0:36:54.719
<v Speaker 1>I based this part of the episode on, and it

0:36:54.800 --> 0:36:58.240
<v Speaker 1>was also really interesting to read it through the lens

0:36:58.360 --> 0:37:01.799
<v Speaker 1>of today, after we've been in a pandemic for two

0:37:01.840 --> 0:37:07.280
<v Speaker 1>plus years. That episode came out in October twenty seventeen. Wow,

0:37:07.600 --> 0:37:12.200
<v Speaker 1>we're recording this in October twenty twenty two, which is amazing. Yeah,

0:37:12.239 --> 0:37:16.320
<v Speaker 1>five years later. And at the time of that first recording,

0:37:16.480 --> 0:37:20.120
<v Speaker 1>we were horrified by the choices that people made during

0:37:20.160 --> 0:37:24.400
<v Speaker 1>the nineteen eighteen pandemic, like the parade in Philadelphia, for instance.

0:37:25.320 --> 0:37:29.480
<v Speaker 1>We seemed shocked at the idea of everyone wearing masks.

0:37:30.200 --> 0:37:33.440
<v Speaker 1>And we talked about the very real and very scary

0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:36.799
<v Speaker 1>possibility that the next pandemic that we could see would

0:37:36.840 --> 0:37:40.279
<v Speaker 1>be caused by an influenza virus, in particular H five

0:37:40.360 --> 0:37:43.960
<v Speaker 1>N one. And although we were wrong about the causative

0:37:44.000 --> 0:37:47.840
<v Speaker 1>agent of the next pandemic, we were right to be

0:37:48.040 --> 0:37:53.600
<v Speaker 1>scared to still be scared. Frankly, my intention today is

0:37:53.719 --> 0:37:56.319
<v Speaker 1>not to scare you, and I think our intention is

0:37:56.360 --> 0:37:59.879
<v Speaker 1>to scare you, but to present what we know about

0:37:59.880 --> 0:38:04.880
<v Speaker 1>the evolutionary history of influenza viruses, take a brief jount

0:38:04.920 --> 0:38:09.959
<v Speaker 1>through the history of past influenza pandemics pandemics multiple because

0:38:09.960 --> 0:38:13.000
<v Speaker 1>there were many of them, and then turn towards the

0:38:13.040 --> 0:38:17.399
<v Speaker 1>highly pathogenic Avian influenza virus H five and one and

0:38:17.560 --> 0:38:21.960
<v Speaker 1>how its epidemiology has changed over the past decades. And

0:38:22.000 --> 0:38:24.160
<v Speaker 1>it's in this last part that I want to draw

0:38:24.200 --> 0:38:27.719
<v Speaker 1>attention to the parallels between the emergence of this H

0:38:27.840 --> 0:38:31.600
<v Speaker 1>five and one virus and the emergence of other pathogens

0:38:31.640 --> 0:38:35.960
<v Speaker 1>of pandemic potential, things like the nineteen eighteen influenza virus

0:38:36.440 --> 0:38:41.240
<v Speaker 1>SARS covid one and of course SARS covid two, Because

0:38:41.920 --> 0:38:47.280
<v Speaker 1>those stories, from initial appearance to sweeping the globe public

0:38:47.320 --> 0:38:52.440
<v Speaker 1>health responses and political commentary, they're disturbingly similar, I know,

0:38:53.120 --> 0:38:56.160
<v Speaker 1>and I say disturbing because even though we know how

0:38:56.200 --> 0:39:03.120
<v Speaker 1>these pandemics happen, applying that knowledge to prove seems almost impossible.

0:39:04.520 --> 0:39:10.040
<v Speaker 1>But before I fall further into this pit of pessimism fatalism,

0:39:10.280 --> 0:39:14.360
<v Speaker 1>let's start back at the evolutionary roots of influenza viruses,

0:39:14.600 --> 0:39:20.040
<v Speaker 1>specifically influenza A. Like most other pathogens we talk about

0:39:20.040 --> 0:39:22.640
<v Speaker 1>on this podcast, coming up with a timeline for the

0:39:22.640 --> 0:39:25.440
<v Speaker 1>origins and evolution of influenza viruses.

0:39:25.680 --> 0:39:30.319
<v Speaker 5>That's pretty difficult, I can imagine, despite.

0:39:29.800 --> 0:39:33.520
<v Speaker 1>The fact that to quote Will and Holmes twenty twenty

0:39:34.360 --> 0:39:38.600
<v Speaker 1>quote from an evolutionary perspective, more is known and more

0:39:38.640 --> 0:39:42.560
<v Speaker 1>sequence data have been generated about influenza viruses than arguably

0:39:42.680 --> 0:39:44.480
<v Speaker 1>any other group of pathogens and.

0:39:44.640 --> 0:39:46.239
<v Speaker 2>Quote I'm not surprised by that.

0:39:46.560 --> 0:39:50.759
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, what does seem likely is that influenza viruses have

0:39:50.880 --> 0:39:54.400
<v Speaker 1>been around for hundreds of millions of years, hundreds of

0:39:54.400 --> 0:39:58.000
<v Speaker 1>millions of years, and that they have infected their natural reservoirs,

0:39:58.080 --> 0:40:02.160
<v Speaker 1>these water birds, specifically the orders and Seriformis, which are ducks,

0:40:02.200 --> 0:40:05.719
<v Speaker 1>and Charadriformis, which are shore birds and gulls. I hope

0:40:05.719 --> 0:40:07.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm pronouncing that right.

0:40:08.280 --> 0:40:10.800
<v Speaker 3>I didn't say those orders because I knew I couldn't

0:40:10.800 --> 0:40:13.120
<v Speaker 3>pronounce the second one, so I was like, you know,

0:40:13.280 --> 0:40:14.920
<v Speaker 3>gulls and cute little pipes.

0:40:15.600 --> 0:40:18.800
<v Speaker 1>That's actually probably what I should have done. Regretting it now,

0:40:19.560 --> 0:40:23.480
<v Speaker 1>I think you did a great job. Thank you, Thank you. Anyway,

0:40:23.640 --> 0:40:27.359
<v Speaker 1>these these influenza viruses have been infecting those birds for

0:40:27.440 --> 0:40:31.200
<v Speaker 1>thousands and thousands of years, and of course birds aren't

0:40:31.200 --> 0:40:37.800
<v Speaker 1>the only animals where influenza viruses can be found pigs, bats, amphibians, fish,

0:40:37.960 --> 0:40:43.400
<v Speaker 1>even hagfish and more. I know your faces, hagfish, I know,

0:40:44.120 --> 0:40:46.839
<v Speaker 1>and more are likely to be discovered the more we look,

0:40:47.040 --> 0:40:50.520
<v Speaker 1>of course, and the patterns in the relatedness of these

0:40:50.560 --> 0:40:55.520
<v Speaker 1>influenza viruses suggest that coevolution between influenza viruses and their

0:40:55.560 --> 0:40:59.239
<v Speaker 1>hosts has been going on as long as vertebrates have

0:40:59.320 --> 0:41:00.000
<v Speaker 1>been vertebrates.

0:41:00.440 --> 0:41:03.839
<v Speaker 2>Wow. I know, that's kind of nice. That's pretty fun.

0:41:04.080 --> 0:41:09.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, But a paper from twenty fourteen concluded that all

0:41:09.200 --> 0:41:12.239
<v Speaker 1>of the influenza A viruses that we see today in

0:41:12.360 --> 0:41:17.120
<v Speaker 1>mammals minus bats, and birds descended from a common ancestor

0:41:17.360 --> 0:41:19.600
<v Speaker 1>dating back to the late eighteen hundreds.

0:41:20.760 --> 0:41:21.600
<v Speaker 2>So interesting.

0:41:21.880 --> 0:41:25.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, all of the existing diversity, which is highah in

0:41:25.960 --> 0:41:29.399
<v Speaker 1>influenza viruses that we see today in mammals minus bats

0:41:29.440 --> 0:41:32.680
<v Speaker 1>and birds came from a lineage branching off in the

0:41:32.760 --> 0:41:35.560
<v Speaker 1>late eighteen hundreds. Okay, but what does this mean? Like,

0:41:35.600 --> 0:41:39.560
<v Speaker 1>why does this matter? It matters because it highlights a

0:41:39.719 --> 0:41:44.520
<v Speaker 1>very important characteristic of influenza virus evolution, their tendency to

0:41:44.680 --> 0:41:50.399
<v Speaker 1>undergo selective sweeps. Basically, what happens is that a new

0:41:50.600 --> 0:41:55.759
<v Speaker 1>advantageous mutation emerges in one strain that leads to all

0:41:55.880 --> 0:42:00.839
<v Speaker 1>other strains being outcompeted eliminated, so that all future come

0:42:00.880 --> 0:42:02.480
<v Speaker 1>from this one mutant branch.

0:42:02.480 --> 0:42:04.200
<v Speaker 2>Oh my gosh, I love this so much.

0:42:04.800 --> 0:42:07.400
<v Speaker 1>And also we have a present day example or like

0:42:07.480 --> 0:42:10.160
<v Speaker 1>a present day illustration of this. Think about COVID nineteen

0:42:10.960 --> 0:42:14.160
<v Speaker 1>and how the dominant variant of SARS COVID two is

0:42:14.280 --> 0:42:18.200
<v Speaker 1>constantly changing. We don't really see COVID infections caused by

0:42:18.239 --> 0:42:22.560
<v Speaker 1>delta anymore. Delta was displaced by omicron, and even the

0:42:22.600 --> 0:42:26.120
<v Speaker 1>original Omicron lineage has been displaced by a later one.

0:42:26.960 --> 0:42:27.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:42:27.400 --> 0:42:30.239
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and this will keep happening, like this is just

0:42:30.239 --> 0:42:32.880
<v Speaker 1>how it's going to go. The one that is the

0:42:32.920 --> 0:42:35.640
<v Speaker 1>most transmissible and causes the most infections, that's going to

0:42:35.640 --> 0:42:38.319
<v Speaker 1>outcompete the rest, and then that's the only lineage that

0:42:38.400 --> 0:42:40.600
<v Speaker 1>will survive and on and on and on.

0:42:41.000 --> 0:42:43.000
<v Speaker 2>Okay, love this, I know, right.

0:42:44.200 --> 0:42:47.600
<v Speaker 1>And selective sweeps are interesting in light of how we

0:42:47.640 --> 0:42:52.000
<v Speaker 1>look at existing diversity and evolutionary relationships or the evolutionary

0:42:52.080 --> 0:42:57.160
<v Speaker 1>history with different influenza viruses, but they're also important from

0:42:57.160 --> 0:43:00.839
<v Speaker 1>a public health standpoint. Virus is seed when there are

0:43:00.880 --> 0:43:04.600
<v Speaker 1>susceptible individuals to infect, and the more novel a mutation

0:43:04.760 --> 0:43:08.319
<v Speaker 1>makes a strain or variant compared to previous ones, the

0:43:08.320 --> 0:43:11.200
<v Speaker 1>more susceptibility there is going to be in the population.

0:43:11.880 --> 0:43:14.600
<v Speaker 1>And that holds for humans, or birds, or pigs or

0:43:14.600 --> 0:43:18.719
<v Speaker 1>what have you. What determines the level of susceptibility in

0:43:18.760 --> 0:43:22.080
<v Speaker 1>a population is not just how different the viruses from

0:43:22.080 --> 0:43:25.960
<v Speaker 1>previous variants, but also how many people were exposed to

0:43:26.000 --> 0:43:30.320
<v Speaker 1>those previous ones, how novel the virus is to them,

0:43:30.760 --> 0:43:35.279
<v Speaker 1>and that's what separates seasonal flu from pandemic flu. With

0:43:35.440 --> 0:43:40.040
<v Speaker 1>the circulating seasonal influenza viruses, they usually only undergo small

0:43:40.160 --> 0:43:43.000
<v Speaker 1>changes from year to year, and so most of our

0:43:43.000 --> 0:43:46.840
<v Speaker 1>immune systems have seen them or have seen similar strains before,

0:43:47.520 --> 0:43:52.239
<v Speaker 1>either through vaccination or infection, So we don't get infected

0:43:52.360 --> 0:43:55.640
<v Speaker 1>with this new slightly different strain, or if we do,

0:43:55.760 --> 0:43:59.680
<v Speaker 1>we just experience a mild infection. But let's say a

0:43:59.760 --> 0:44:03.719
<v Speaker 1>new influenza virus strain is introduced, maybe spilled over from

0:44:03.760 --> 0:44:07.279
<v Speaker 1>pigs or birds, and none of our immune systems have

0:44:07.400 --> 0:44:10.480
<v Speaker 1>seen it before. That's when you have the potential for

0:44:10.520 --> 0:44:15.440
<v Speaker 1>a pandemic. The four influenza pandemics that we've seen since

0:44:15.560 --> 0:44:20.520
<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighteen demonstrate this. In nineteen eighteen, that usual U

0:44:20.640 --> 0:44:24.560
<v Speaker 1>shaped mortality curve that we talked about was flipped upside down,

0:44:25.120 --> 0:44:28.479
<v Speaker 1>hitting the younger and middle aged generations the hardest, which

0:44:28.520 --> 0:44:31.879
<v Speaker 1>suggested to some that the older generation had encountered an

0:44:31.880 --> 0:44:35.920
<v Speaker 1>influenza virus similar to the nineteen eighteen strain. The nineteen

0:44:36.000 --> 0:44:39.160
<v Speaker 1>fifty seven, nineteen sixty eight, and two thousand and nine

0:44:39.200 --> 0:44:43.239
<v Speaker 1>influenza pandemics were caused by viruses that had undergone reassortment

0:44:43.280 --> 0:44:47.799
<v Speaker 1>from previously circulating viruses. And reassortment, by the way, is

0:44:47.840 --> 0:44:50.960
<v Speaker 1>just when influenza viruses swap bits of their genome and

0:44:51.040 --> 0:44:57.120
<v Speaker 1>create new strains like antigenic shift. Exactly people hadn't encountered

0:44:57.160 --> 0:45:02.120
<v Speaker 1>these new reassorted viruses, and so boom pandemic. This is

0:45:02.160 --> 0:45:06.360
<v Speaker 1>a source of grave concern for highly pathogenic avian influenza

0:45:06.520 --> 0:45:10.520
<v Speaker 1>H five N one that it will swap genes, maybe

0:45:10.560 --> 0:45:14.439
<v Speaker 1>with a human influenza strain, gaining high human to human

0:45:14.480 --> 0:45:20.360
<v Speaker 1>transmissibility and retaining its highly pathogenic nature. The influenza pandemics

0:45:20.360 --> 0:45:23.520
<v Speaker 1>of nineteen fifty seven and nineteen sixty eight were caused

0:45:23.560 --> 0:45:28.480
<v Speaker 1>by viruses that had undergone reassortment between previously circulating avian

0:45:28.680 --> 0:45:34.080
<v Speaker 1>and human influenza viruses, so it can happen. And let's

0:45:34.120 --> 0:45:37.560
<v Speaker 1>not also discount the role of the humble pig as

0:45:37.600 --> 0:45:40.200
<v Speaker 1>a little mixing bowl for influenza viruses.

0:45:40.680 --> 0:45:43.480
<v Speaker 2>The humble pig, the humble pig.

0:45:44.280 --> 0:45:46.440
<v Speaker 1>That's going to be the name of my bar whenever

0:45:46.480 --> 0:45:50.840
<v Speaker 1>I make it. But let me rope those fears of

0:45:51.080 --> 0:45:55.200
<v Speaker 1>H five and one in a bit and instead take

0:45:55.280 --> 0:45:58.920
<v Speaker 1>us briefly through the history of influenza, as I didn't

0:45:58.960 --> 0:46:03.759
<v Speaker 1>really do in our first episode. Although influenza viruses are

0:46:03.840 --> 0:46:07.920
<v Speaker 1>as old as time, it's unclear when humans were first exposed,

0:46:08.560 --> 0:46:12.240
<v Speaker 1>but it's certainly plausible that a passing interaction with ducks

0:46:12.360 --> 0:46:15.200
<v Speaker 1>or with pigs during domestication could have led to small

0:46:15.239 --> 0:46:19.600
<v Speaker 1>outbreaks growing in size as settlements got larger. And while

0:46:19.640 --> 0:46:23.320
<v Speaker 1>some researchers have pointed towards the Hippocratic texts as having

0:46:23.440 --> 0:46:27.560
<v Speaker 1>the first description of an influenza pandemic, specifically the cough

0:46:27.760 --> 0:46:32.760
<v Speaker 1>of parenthus in four to twelve BCE, the symptoms don't

0:46:32.800 --> 0:46:36.680
<v Speaker 1>really match up all that well, and diphtheria has also

0:46:36.719 --> 0:46:41.120
<v Speaker 1>been proposed as a more likely explanation other possible but

0:46:41.239 --> 0:46:45.720
<v Speaker 1>debated influenza epidemic descriptions can be found throughout the hundreds

0:46:45.760 --> 0:46:48.840
<v Speaker 1>of years that followed in eleven seventy three to eleven

0:46:48.880 --> 0:46:52.880
<v Speaker 1>seventy four, c in fifteen ten, and in fifteen fifty seven,

0:46:53.080 --> 0:46:57.359
<v Speaker 1>which some argue was a pandemic, but they agreed upon

0:46:57.480 --> 0:47:02.160
<v Speaker 1>date for the first clear influenza pandemic is fifteen eighty.

0:47:02.239 --> 0:47:04.960
<v Speaker 1>The disease broke out initially in Asia and then spread

0:47:04.960 --> 0:47:08.200
<v Speaker 1>to Africa and then Europe before being brought to the Americas,

0:47:08.800 --> 0:47:12.479
<v Speaker 1>and in all places, infection rates were reported as being

0:47:12.680 --> 0:47:17.040
<v Speaker 1>incredibly high, with a sizable mortality rate eight thousand deaths

0:47:17.080 --> 0:47:20.680
<v Speaker 1>in Rome alone, and some Spanish cities were described as

0:47:20.719 --> 0:47:24.919
<v Speaker 1>being decimated who Two quick asides here The first test

0:47:24.960 --> 0:47:29.799
<v Speaker 1>to do with assessing historical influenza epidemics. Influenza has some

0:47:29.960 --> 0:47:33.640
<v Speaker 1>fairly general symptoms, So how can you tell whether a

0:47:33.680 --> 0:47:37.360
<v Speaker 1>pandemic is caused by influenza in historical accounts When you

0:47:37.400 --> 0:47:41.000
<v Speaker 1>can't do molecular testing, Of course, you can't be certain,

0:47:41.320 --> 0:47:45.359
<v Speaker 1>but you can look for clues that are suggestive of influenza.

0:47:46.239 --> 0:47:49.720
<v Speaker 1>One is that it occurs in the winter months. Another

0:47:49.960 --> 0:47:52.880
<v Speaker 1>is its pattern of spread, which has tended to be

0:47:53.120 --> 0:47:57.200
<v Speaker 1>though not always from somewhere in Asia, to move on

0:47:57.440 --> 0:48:00.680
<v Speaker 1>then west to Africa and Europe, and then the Americas.

0:48:01.520 --> 0:48:04.440
<v Speaker 1>That it explodes rapidly, with a high infection rate and

0:48:04.560 --> 0:48:08.520
<v Speaker 1>often high mortality rate, at least compared to seasonal flu

0:48:09.000 --> 0:48:12.600
<v Speaker 1>and of course the symptoms have to match. If you've

0:48:12.640 --> 0:48:18.359
<v Speaker 1>got all that, influenza seems likely. But those characteristics are

0:48:18.400 --> 0:48:22.719
<v Speaker 1>not unique to influenza alone, and more recently, some researchers

0:48:22.840 --> 0:48:27.000
<v Speaker 1>are re examining these past influenza pandemics and asking whether

0:48:27.040 --> 0:48:30.640
<v Speaker 1>they could have actually been caused by a different respiratory virus,

0:48:31.160 --> 0:48:33.800
<v Speaker 1>say perhaps a type of coronavirus.

0:48:34.040 --> 0:48:34.799
<v Speaker 2>Dump done it now?

0:48:37.040 --> 0:48:39.680
<v Speaker 1>Okay, a side number one over a side number two.

0:48:40.239 --> 0:48:44.759
<v Speaker 1>Here we are the etymology of influenza. Oh, which I

0:48:44.800 --> 0:48:47.200
<v Speaker 1>didn't talk about. I'm pretty sure I don't think you

0:48:47.239 --> 0:48:50.720
<v Speaker 1>did either. Okay, Well I'm talking about it now. Surprisingly

0:48:50.760 --> 0:48:54.719
<v Speaker 1>difficult to track down. I mean, it seems like there

0:48:54.719 --> 0:48:59.400
<v Speaker 1>should be an easy explanation, and generally speaking, people do

0:48:59.480 --> 0:49:04.000
<v Speaker 1>seem to that it comes from Italian, ultimately derived from

0:49:04.000 --> 0:49:08.960
<v Speaker 1>the Latin word influentia, meaning either to flow into or influence,

0:49:09.560 --> 0:49:12.960
<v Speaker 1>both suggesting that the influence of the stars, or like

0:49:13.000 --> 0:49:16.520
<v Speaker 1>the influence of the fluid from the stars would flow

0:49:16.640 --> 0:49:21.480
<v Speaker 1>into you to make you sick. Huh yeah, yeah, something

0:49:21.480 --> 0:49:24.880
<v Speaker 1>to that effect. Okay, but when it was first used

0:49:25.000 --> 0:49:27.560
<v Speaker 1>seems up for debate. So I've read that it was

0:49:27.600 --> 0:49:31.360
<v Speaker 1>first used in thirteen fifty seven from an epidemic in Florence, Italy,

0:49:32.200 --> 0:49:36.200
<v Speaker 1>sometime in the fifteenth century, seventeen forty three during an

0:49:36.239 --> 0:49:40.520
<v Speaker 1>epidemic in Rome, or my favorite quote, way way way

0:49:40.800 --> 0:49:41.680
<v Speaker 1>back in the day.

0:49:42.360 --> 0:49:47.359
<v Speaker 3>Quote that sounds like my answer. It was like way

0:49:47.400 --> 0:49:47.960
<v Speaker 3>back in the day.

0:49:48.120 --> 0:49:49.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that could be any one of those dates.

0:49:51.600 --> 0:49:54.040
<v Speaker 3>So they're not wrong, they're not.

0:49:54.200 --> 0:49:55.080
<v Speaker 1>It's true.

0:49:55.080 --> 0:49:56.640
<v Speaker 2>It's the most correct answer.

0:49:56.440 --> 0:50:00.239
<v Speaker 1>Technically, right is the best way to be right. The

0:50:00.280 --> 0:50:03.560
<v Speaker 1>precise year that it was first used may not really

0:50:03.640 --> 0:50:06.160
<v Speaker 1>matter all that much, but I do think it would

0:50:06.160 --> 0:50:10.000
<v Speaker 1>be helpful to understand how well known or distinguishable this

0:50:10.120 --> 0:50:14.759
<v Speaker 1>disease was. Yeah, yeah, okay, But back to pandemics. The

0:50:14.800 --> 0:50:19.880
<v Speaker 1>next influenza pandemic occurred in seventeen twenty nine, starting in Russia,

0:50:20.000 --> 0:50:23.279
<v Speaker 1>before covering the entirety of Europe within six months and

0:50:23.360 --> 0:50:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world within three years.

0:50:25.920 --> 0:50:30.240
<v Speaker 3>It's also so impressive to think of these influenza pandemics

0:50:31.120 --> 0:50:34.560
<v Speaker 3>so long ago when travel was not as easy, given

0:50:34.760 --> 0:50:40.960
<v Speaker 3>how rapidly this virus spreads, and that the vast majority

0:50:40.960 --> 0:50:44.440
<v Speaker 3>of people are not infectious for that long after they

0:50:44.440 --> 0:50:45.560
<v Speaker 3>start to show symptoms.

0:50:46.160 --> 0:50:49.840
<v Speaker 1>But if it is that infectious of a virus or

0:50:49.880 --> 0:50:53.600
<v Speaker 1>that transmissible that anyone you come into contact with.

0:50:53.920 --> 0:50:55.879
<v Speaker 3>I know, it's just still so impressive that you can

0:50:55.880 --> 0:50:58.719
<v Speaker 3>make it from Russia to like anywhere else, I know,

0:50:58.760 --> 0:50:59.960
<v Speaker 3>in the seventeen hundreds.

0:51:01.000 --> 0:51:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Impressive and scary. I guess it's just like, but did

0:51:06.000 --> 0:51:09.319
<v Speaker 1>it then, Like, you know, does air travel really make

0:51:09.360 --> 0:51:10.080
<v Speaker 1>that much of a dent?

0:51:10.360 --> 0:51:11.960
<v Speaker 2>We've all seen contagion.

0:51:14.280 --> 0:51:23.120
<v Speaker 1>Anyways, yep, I have not watched that since COVID, But yeah, Interestingly,

0:51:23.320 --> 0:51:27.040
<v Speaker 1>this pandemic, the one starting in seventeen twenty nine, which

0:51:27.120 --> 0:51:31.719
<v Speaker 1>had high mortality, also had recognizable waves of infection with

0:51:32.040 --> 0:51:38.200
<v Speaker 1>increasing severity. Forty years later. The next pandemic occurred in

0:51:38.239 --> 0:51:41.600
<v Speaker 1>seventeen eighty one to seventeen eighty two, beginning in China,

0:51:41.680 --> 0:51:44.080
<v Speaker 1>spreading to Russia within a few months, and then onto

0:51:44.160 --> 0:51:47.080
<v Speaker 1>Europe and the rest of the world within eight months.

0:51:47.520 --> 0:51:51.880
<v Speaker 1>As is characteristic of influenza, pandemics attack rate was super high,

0:51:52.320 --> 0:51:55.920
<v Speaker 1>especially among young adults, notably with two thirds of the

0:51:55.960 --> 0:51:59.880
<v Speaker 1>population of Rome falling ill three quarters of the population

0:52:00.080 --> 0:52:03.560
<v Speaker 1>of Britain, and at its peak, thirty thousand got sick

0:52:03.680 --> 0:52:05.319
<v Speaker 1>each day in Saint Petersburg.

0:52:06.040 --> 0:52:07.920
<v Speaker 2>Wow. Yeah.

0:52:08.000 --> 0:52:11.440
<v Speaker 1>Also, I just thought of something about what you brought

0:52:11.520 --> 0:52:14.279
<v Speaker 1>up in global travel and how long it would have

0:52:14.320 --> 0:52:18.600
<v Speaker 1>taken to get from Russia to Europe. For instance, we

0:52:18.680 --> 0:52:20.840
<v Speaker 1>may not be dealing with the same influenza viruses that

0:52:20.840 --> 0:52:24.280
<v Speaker 1>we see today, so you could have potentially been infections

0:52:24.280 --> 0:52:24.680
<v Speaker 1>so longer.

0:52:24.920 --> 0:52:27.920
<v Speaker 2>That's a really good point. Yeah, yeah, yeah, or shedding. Yeah.

0:52:28.440 --> 0:52:32.440
<v Speaker 1>But anyway, Okay, So going back to pandemics. So the

0:52:32.480 --> 0:52:36.359
<v Speaker 1>next pandemic happened about fifty years after that one in

0:52:36.400 --> 0:52:39.799
<v Speaker 1>seventeen eighty one. So this was in eighteen thirty to

0:52:39.840 --> 0:52:43.440
<v Speaker 1>eighteen thirty three. This one originated in China and spread

0:52:43.520 --> 0:52:46.880
<v Speaker 1>south to Indonesia and the Philippines, and then west to India,

0:52:47.000 --> 0:52:51.640
<v Speaker 1>Russia and onto Europe and the Americas. This pandemic reportedly

0:52:51.760 --> 0:52:54.560
<v Speaker 1>had infection rates comparable to those in the nineteen eighteen

0:52:54.560 --> 0:52:57.920
<v Speaker 1>influenza pandemic, with twenty to twenty five percent of the

0:52:57.920 --> 0:53:02.279
<v Speaker 1>population becoming infected again in waves, though not with a

0:53:02.280 --> 0:53:06.640
<v Speaker 1>super high mortality rate. Sixty years went by before the

0:53:06.680 --> 0:53:10.600
<v Speaker 1>next pandemic in eighteen eighty nine to eighteen ninety and

0:53:10.719 --> 0:53:13.520
<v Speaker 1>this was the first since the rise of germ theory

0:53:13.600 --> 0:53:16.600
<v Speaker 1>and the enormous shifts in medicine and medical training that

0:53:16.640 --> 0:53:19.880
<v Speaker 1>had occurred in the nineteenth century. And this marks the

0:53:19.920 --> 0:53:24.360
<v Speaker 1>first influenza pandemic for which we have detailed records, statistics, timing,

0:53:24.480 --> 0:53:27.400
<v Speaker 1>and a better sense of the pathology. For this disease,

0:53:29.440 --> 0:53:32.840
<v Speaker 1>the virus reached Europe from Russia and spread across the

0:53:32.880 --> 0:53:36.320
<v Speaker 1>Atlantic to the Americas, then onto Australia and New Zealand,

0:53:36.719 --> 0:53:40.759
<v Speaker 1>Southeast and Southern Asia, and Africa, all within about a year,

0:53:41.120 --> 0:53:45.440
<v Speaker 1>which is again pretty fast. Infection rates were high, but

0:53:45.520 --> 0:53:49.120
<v Speaker 1>the case fatality rate was low. Despite this, the scale

0:53:49.120 --> 0:53:53.000
<v Speaker 1>of death was enormous one million people in a global

0:53:53.040 --> 0:53:54.960
<v Speaker 1>population of one point five billion.

0:53:55.440 --> 0:53:56.080
<v Speaker 2>Wow.

0:53:56.719 --> 0:53:59.360
<v Speaker 1>The world wouldn't have to wait another fifty or sixty

0:53:59.440 --> 0:54:03.000
<v Speaker 1>years for the next influenza pandemic, though, because a short

0:54:03.120 --> 0:54:06.879
<v Speaker 1>twenty eight years later, the deadliest influenza pandemic the world

0:54:06.920 --> 0:54:10.400
<v Speaker 1>had seen would result in five hundred million infections and

0:54:10.440 --> 0:54:15.240
<v Speaker 1>fifty to one hundred million deaths worldwide. Although I'm tempted

0:54:15.320 --> 0:54:18.360
<v Speaker 1>to redo the coverage of the nineteen to eighteen influenza

0:54:18.360 --> 0:54:21.160
<v Speaker 1>pandemic from our first episode, I want to make sure

0:54:21.160 --> 0:54:22.600
<v Speaker 1>that I get to what I really want to talk

0:54:22.600 --> 0:54:26.360
<v Speaker 1>about today, which is the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza,

0:54:26.719 --> 0:54:30.520
<v Speaker 1>and so I'm just going to glance over it. Essentially. So,

0:54:30.560 --> 0:54:34.680
<v Speaker 1>the nineteen eighteen influenza pandemic left the world reeling, and

0:54:34.760 --> 0:54:36.480
<v Speaker 1>if you want to read more about it, there are

0:54:36.480 --> 0:54:41.400
<v Speaker 1>countless resources. I'll post them. And although many researchers tried

0:54:41.440 --> 0:54:44.560
<v Speaker 1>to isolate the causative agent of the nineteen eighteen pandemic

0:54:44.680 --> 0:54:48.040
<v Speaker 1>while it was happening, the technology just wasn't there yet,

0:54:48.320 --> 0:54:50.239
<v Speaker 1>and it was only in nineteen thirty three that the

0:54:50.280 --> 0:54:55.560
<v Speaker 1>influenza virus was finally isolated. Almost immediately afterwards, research on

0:54:55.640 --> 0:54:59.640
<v Speaker 1>a possible vaccine began, with a live attenuative vaccine first

0:54:59.640 --> 0:55:02.920
<v Speaker 1>being reduced and used in factory workers in the USSR

0:55:03.040 --> 0:55:07.320
<v Speaker 1>in nineteen thirty six. Four years later, the inactivated bivalent

0:55:07.440 --> 0:55:10.840
<v Speaker 1>vaccine containing H one N one and influenza B was

0:55:10.880 --> 0:55:15.480
<v Speaker 1>developed and deployed, likely contributing to reduced influenza morbidity and

0:55:15.520 --> 0:55:20.000
<v Speaker 1>mortality during World War Two. The history of influenza viruses

0:55:20.040 --> 0:55:23.560
<v Speaker 1>could genuinely be an entire episode all of its own.

0:55:23.800 --> 0:55:26.919
<v Speaker 1>Oh I bet, and I'm definitely not doing it justice here.

0:55:27.160 --> 0:55:31.000
<v Speaker 1>But essentially, it was a good thing that influenza vaccines

0:55:31.000 --> 0:55:34.240
<v Speaker 1>were around for the nineteen fifty seven and nineteen sixty

0:55:34.239 --> 0:55:37.200
<v Speaker 1>eight influenza pandemics, which had one to four million deaths

0:55:37.200 --> 0:55:41.960
<v Speaker 1>and one million deaths respectively, and forty years would pass

0:55:42.080 --> 0:55:45.359
<v Speaker 1>before the most recent influenza pandemic, which was in two

0:55:45.440 --> 0:55:48.759
<v Speaker 1>thousand and nine, resulting in eight hundred million to one

0:55:48.800 --> 0:55:53.360
<v Speaker 1>point four billion infections and one hundred and twenty to

0:55:53.600 --> 0:55:58.600
<v Speaker 1>two hundred and three thousand deaths. Although I've seen higher estimates.

0:55:57.840 --> 0:56:02.760
<v Speaker 3>I do not think that I realized is how large

0:56:02.800 --> 0:56:05.279
<v Speaker 3>those numbers were. I didn't swine flu.

0:56:05.640 --> 0:56:08.200
<v Speaker 1>I didn't either yet. There's a paper all post that

0:56:08.239 --> 0:56:10.279
<v Speaker 1>sort of modeled these estimates.

0:56:10.480 --> 0:56:13.640
<v Speaker 3>Okay, yeah, because yeah, that's I mean, you always hear

0:56:13.760 --> 0:56:16.799
<v Speaker 3>like it wasn't as bad as we expected.

0:56:16.760 --> 0:56:22.640
<v Speaker 1>Right, Those are likely not confirmed cases, but estimated and modeled.

0:56:22.719 --> 0:56:26.960
<v Speaker 3>But interesting though, Yeah, that's a lot.

0:56:29.160 --> 0:56:31.239
<v Speaker 1>I didn't read too much about the two thousand and

0:56:31.360 --> 0:56:34.640
<v Speaker 1>nine pandemic because there were just way too many rabbit

0:56:34.680 --> 0:56:38.680
<v Speaker 1>holes to fall down into in this entire episode. But

0:56:38.760 --> 0:56:42.280
<v Speaker 1>I did come across something very interesting that I don't

0:56:42.320 --> 0:56:45.239
<v Speaker 1>remember if we've ever mentioned, and I think that we did,

0:56:45.760 --> 0:56:49.000
<v Speaker 1>and that is the apparent increase in narcolepsy on set

0:56:49.200 --> 0:56:50.440
<v Speaker 1>following the pandemic.

0:56:51.400 --> 0:56:53.040
<v Speaker 2>I don't remember ever talking about that.

0:56:53.320 --> 0:56:57.480
<v Speaker 1>Okay, Well, that of course brought to mind the encephalitis

0:56:57.520 --> 0:57:01.440
<v Speaker 1>lethargica episode and that thing, and so it made me

0:57:01.719 --> 0:57:05.320
<v Speaker 1>really really want to do a narcolepsy episode next season, definitely.

0:57:05.400 --> 0:57:07.600
<v Speaker 3>And maybe we did talk about it a little bit

0:57:07.760 --> 0:57:09.360
<v Speaker 3>in cephalitis lethargica.

0:57:09.400 --> 0:57:10.480
<v Speaker 1>I wonder we must have.

0:57:10.719 --> 0:57:11.880
<v Speaker 2>We must have, we must have.

0:57:12.000 --> 0:57:16.920
<v Speaker 3>We talked about influenza like nineteen eighteen. Yeah, okay, all right,

0:57:16.960 --> 0:57:18.800
<v Speaker 3>yeah yeah, narcolepsy okay.

0:57:18.600 --> 0:57:24.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, all right, back to pandemics. Maybe it's just been

0:57:24.440 --> 0:57:28.720
<v Speaker 1>a while since we've covered a really pandemic ye pathogen.

0:57:29.400 --> 0:57:33.520
<v Speaker 1>But I was struck by just how many pandemics that

0:57:33.600 --> 0:57:37.640
<v Speaker 1>influenza viruses have caused, and it made me wonder whether

0:57:37.920 --> 0:57:40.960
<v Speaker 1>we could draw any patterns at all, and what those

0:57:40.960 --> 0:57:45.880
<v Speaker 1>patterns might be from these pandemics. Yeah, so some researchers

0:57:45.960 --> 0:57:50.120
<v Speaker 1>have suggested that there's a set interval between flu pandemics,

0:57:50.280 --> 0:57:53.440
<v Speaker 1>ranging from ten to fifty years, and that we are

0:57:53.560 --> 0:57:56.400
<v Speaker 1>due for the next one in X number of years.

0:57:56.880 --> 0:58:01.120
<v Speaker 1>That travel and increased population size hasn't seen unificantly impacted

0:58:01.160 --> 0:58:03.960
<v Speaker 1>this interval, so it must be something intrinsic to the

0:58:04.040 --> 0:58:09.800
<v Speaker 1>virus itself. Yeah, your face and my face. I'm also

0:58:09.840 --> 0:58:13.560
<v Speaker 1>inclined to disagree. I don't believe that pandemics happen on

0:58:13.560 --> 0:58:17.919
<v Speaker 1>a schedule, or that influenza virus evolution is anywhere near

0:58:18.040 --> 0:58:22.680
<v Speaker 1>predictable enough to know when the next pandemic strain might emerge. Yeah,

0:58:23.200 --> 0:58:27.320
<v Speaker 1>but to borrow a quote from a paper by Potter

0:58:27.560 --> 0:58:31.040
<v Speaker 1>from two thousand and one, quote, it is self evident

0:58:31.120 --> 0:58:34.120
<v Speaker 1>from the history of pandemics that each year that passes

0:58:34.240 --> 0:58:36.840
<v Speaker 1>brings the next pandemic one year closer.

0:58:37.920 --> 0:58:39.160
<v Speaker 2>That I would agree with.

0:58:39.280 --> 0:58:44.480
<v Speaker 1>One hundred percent. Speaking of which, let's now turn to

0:58:45.040 --> 0:58:50.640
<v Speaker 1>highly pathogenic avian influenza. It may be futile to seek

0:58:50.680 --> 0:58:54.520
<v Speaker 1>to predict exactly when the next pandemic influenza will occur,

0:58:55.240 --> 0:58:58.240
<v Speaker 1>but we already know some of the likely circumstances under

0:58:58.320 --> 0:59:03.960
<v Speaker 1>which the next pandemic virus could emerge, namely humans interacting

0:59:04.000 --> 0:59:08.720
<v Speaker 1>with domestic foul Most papers put the first recognition of

0:59:08.760 --> 0:59:14.240
<v Speaker 1>avian influenza in eighteen seventy eight, when Parencido described a

0:59:14.280 --> 0:59:17.480
<v Speaker 1>deadly disease sweeping through chickens and other poultry in Italy.

0:59:18.280 --> 0:59:21.320
<v Speaker 1>It's really unlikely that this is the first actual instance

0:59:21.440 --> 0:59:25.960
<v Speaker 1>of avian influenza, but as often happens, this publication and

0:59:26.080 --> 0:59:31.760
<v Speaker 1>the nickname foul plague led to Isn't that Great? Led

0:59:31.800 --> 0:59:35.439
<v Speaker 1>to additional reports of the disease, which was distinguished from

0:59:35.480 --> 0:59:40.320
<v Speaker 1>other well known avian infections like foul cholera. The pathogen

0:59:40.400 --> 0:59:43.880
<v Speaker 1>responsible for causing foul plague was found to be a

0:59:43.880 --> 0:59:48.360
<v Speaker 1>filterable transmissible agent in nineteen oh one and isolated as

0:59:48.360 --> 0:59:51.880
<v Speaker 1>a virus in nineteen thirty four. Of course, the more

0:59:51.920 --> 0:59:55.320
<v Speaker 1>people looked, the more foul plague viruses they found, which

0:59:55.320 --> 0:59:59.440
<v Speaker 1>were recognized as influenza viruses but not demonstrated to share

0:59:59.520 --> 1:00:04.160
<v Speaker 1>internal antigens with influenza A viruses infecting mammals until the

1:00:04.200 --> 1:00:06.640
<v Speaker 1>nineteen fifties, so it took a while to make the

1:00:06.680 --> 1:00:10.280
<v Speaker 1>connection between like oh, these are all closely related to

1:00:10.280 --> 1:00:15.080
<v Speaker 1>one another, highly pathogenic av and influenza viruses were found

1:00:15.120 --> 1:00:18.720
<v Speaker 1>in domestic poultry, like H five N one, which was

1:00:18.800 --> 1:00:23.120
<v Speaker 1>isolated from a small and self limiting but extremely deadly

1:00:23.200 --> 1:00:25.760
<v Speaker 1>outbreak on a chicken farm on the east coast of

1:00:25.800 --> 1:00:30.720
<v Speaker 1>Scotland in nineteen fifty nine, and these viruses were also

1:00:30.840 --> 1:00:37.240
<v Speaker 1>found in wild birds, particularly migratory birds. The more viruses

1:00:37.280 --> 1:00:40.400
<v Speaker 1>that researchers found, and the more birds they found these

1:00:40.480 --> 1:00:44.160
<v Speaker 1>viruses in, the more they realized they had to worry about,

1:00:44.560 --> 1:00:47.960
<v Speaker 1>especially with the evidence suggesting the nineteen sixty eight H

1:00:48.120 --> 1:00:50.960
<v Speaker 1>three and two pandemic virus had gotten a couple new

1:00:51.040 --> 1:00:57.280
<v Speaker 1>genes from an influenza virus found in ducks. Surveillance studies

1:00:57.280 --> 1:01:01.040
<v Speaker 1>conducted from nineteen seventy three to nineteen eighty six involving

1:01:01.120 --> 1:01:05.680
<v Speaker 1>over twenty thousand birds revealed a prevalence of avian influenza

1:01:05.760 --> 1:01:09.560
<v Speaker 1>of about ten percent, with ducks and geese most infected.

1:01:10.040 --> 1:01:12.720
<v Speaker 1>Another study found that twenty six percent of forty eight

1:01:12.840 --> 1:01:16.840
<v Speaker 1>hundred ducks about to migrate were infected, and with even

1:01:16.920 --> 1:01:22.360
<v Speaker 1>higher rates sixty percent in juveniles. The high prevalence, incredible diversity,

1:01:22.560 --> 1:01:26.280
<v Speaker 1>and extreme virulence of some influenza viruses in domestic and

1:01:26.320 --> 1:01:31.080
<v Speaker 1>wild birds did ring alarm bells for many public health researchers,

1:01:31.640 --> 1:01:34.920
<v Speaker 1>but that ringing was kind of faint for a while

1:01:35.120 --> 1:01:38.120
<v Speaker 1>because there had been no apparent instances of these deadly

1:01:38.200 --> 1:01:42.800
<v Speaker 1>viruses being transmitted directly from birds to humans. But that

1:01:42.880 --> 1:01:45.920
<v Speaker 1>ringing would grow a whole lot louder in nineteen ninety seven.

1:01:46.760 --> 1:01:49.240
<v Speaker 1>In the spring of that year, in Hong Kong, three

1:01:49.320 --> 1:01:53.080
<v Speaker 1>year old lamb Hoycob became increasingly sick with what seemed

1:01:53.160 --> 1:01:58.600
<v Speaker 1>like a severe respiratory infection fever, cough, sore throat, and

1:01:58.640 --> 1:02:02.600
<v Speaker 1>the infection wasn't getting any better. Although doctors tried everything

1:02:02.600 --> 1:02:06.160
<v Speaker 1>they could, he got worse and worse, his lungs, liver,

1:02:06.400 --> 1:02:10.200
<v Speaker 1>and kidney's failing, and a week after he was admitted

1:02:10.200 --> 1:02:14.040
<v Speaker 1>to the hospital he died. Samples had been taken from

1:02:14.120 --> 1:02:16.920
<v Speaker 1>Hoyka while he was still alive and sent to the lab,

1:02:17.120 --> 1:02:19.800
<v Speaker 1>where they were expected to confirm that his illness was

1:02:19.840 --> 1:02:23.720
<v Speaker 1>caused by seasonal influenza, which is generally mild but can

1:02:23.800 --> 1:02:27.800
<v Speaker 1>cause severe infection in some cases, of course, but nothing

1:02:27.960 --> 1:02:32.120
<v Speaker 1>was a match. The virus was definitely influenza A, but

1:02:32.200 --> 1:02:34.400
<v Speaker 1>it didn't seem to be any of the subtypes they

1:02:34.440 --> 1:02:38.160
<v Speaker 1>were testing against the chief of the virology lab at

1:02:38.160 --> 1:02:40.880
<v Speaker 1>the Queen Mary Hospital sent off the samples to other

1:02:40.920 --> 1:02:43.880
<v Speaker 1>researchers around the world to see if someone else could

1:02:43.880 --> 1:02:47.840
<v Speaker 1>solve the puzzle. Two months later, one of those researchers

1:02:47.880 --> 1:02:50.479
<v Speaker 1>showed up in person to reveal what they had found.

1:02:51.680 --> 1:02:54.600
<v Speaker 1>It wasn't an H one or a weird H three.

1:02:55.120 --> 1:02:58.840
<v Speaker 1>It was an H five, specifically H five N one,

1:03:00.400 --> 1:03:03.240
<v Speaker 1>that had up to that point only been known to

1:03:03.280 --> 1:03:08.480
<v Speaker 1>cause infections and deadly ones in birds. It turned out

1:03:08.520 --> 1:03:12.440
<v Speaker 1>that earlier that year, a horrifically deadly disease had swept

1:03:12.480 --> 1:03:16.400
<v Speaker 1>through some poultry farms northwest of Hong Kong, killing most,

1:03:16.480 --> 1:03:19.560
<v Speaker 1>if not all, of the chickens at these farms. That

1:03:19.800 --> 1:03:22.880
<v Speaker 1>virus turned out to be H five N one, but

1:03:23.000 --> 1:03:27.600
<v Speaker 1>this news didn't really register as public health news. After all,

1:03:27.680 --> 1:03:30.880
<v Speaker 1>this strain had never been known to infect humans. Could

1:03:30.880 --> 1:03:33.560
<v Speaker 1>this poultry outbreak have been the source of infection for

1:03:33.680 --> 1:03:38.200
<v Speaker 1>lam Hoyca. The connection wasn't immediately obvious. The family lived

1:03:38.200 --> 1:03:41.080
<v Speaker 1>in an apartment building fifteen miles away from the farms,

1:03:41.320 --> 1:03:45.000
<v Speaker 1>so how could he have been exposed. It turned out

1:03:45.000 --> 1:03:47.120
<v Speaker 1>that a few weeks before he had gotten sick, the

1:03:47.200 --> 1:03:50.480
<v Speaker 1>teachers at his nursery school brought in baby chicks and

1:03:50.560 --> 1:03:54.680
<v Speaker 1>ducklings into the classroom to keep his class pets. They

1:03:54.680 --> 1:03:58.120
<v Speaker 1>didn't last long. Over a couple of weeks, both ducklings

1:03:58.160 --> 1:04:01.360
<v Speaker 1>and two of the three chicks had died. The remaining

1:04:01.480 --> 1:04:04.760
<v Speaker 1>chick was long gone by the time epidemiologists arrived on

1:04:04.800 --> 1:04:07.600
<v Speaker 1>the scene to test for H five and one. But

1:04:07.760 --> 1:04:11.680
<v Speaker 1>that classroom exposure seems the likeliest source for lam hohoica,

1:04:13.200 --> 1:04:16.480
<v Speaker 1>and epidemiologists would have more opportunities that year to track

1:04:16.520 --> 1:04:19.760
<v Speaker 1>down cases of H five and one spillover from domestic

1:04:19.800 --> 1:04:23.040
<v Speaker 1>poultry to humans, because over the course of that year,

1:04:23.240 --> 1:04:27.240
<v Speaker 1>eighteen people became infected with the virus, six of whom died.

1:04:28.760 --> 1:04:33.280
<v Speaker 1>In this outbreak. Even though it seems really small in size,

1:04:33.480 --> 1:04:36.880
<v Speaker 1>only eighteen people, it sent the world into high alert

1:04:37.080 --> 1:04:40.080
<v Speaker 1>and for good reason, could this be the start of

1:04:40.080 --> 1:04:45.080
<v Speaker 1>the next influenza pandemic? In response, one point two million

1:04:45.200 --> 1:04:47.640
<v Speaker 1>chickens in Hong Kong were called to try to stop

1:04:47.680 --> 1:04:50.960
<v Speaker 1>the spread, which was a controversial and unpopular decision for

1:04:51.040 --> 1:04:55.200
<v Speaker 1>many people because of the tremendous economic impact. It was

1:04:55.200 --> 1:04:59.120
<v Speaker 1>your livelihood gone. But it turned out that one in

1:04:59.280 --> 1:05:02.040
<v Speaker 1>five of those chickens had been infected with the virus,

1:05:02.400 --> 1:05:05.240
<v Speaker 1>and once the culling had ended, the human deaths and

1:05:05.280 --> 1:05:10.760
<v Speaker 1>infections also seemed to stop, but the worry remained. This

1:05:10.840 --> 1:05:14.560
<v Speaker 1>outbreak turned what we thought we knew about avian influenza

1:05:14.760 --> 1:05:18.400
<v Speaker 1>on its head. We thought that a species barrier prevented

1:05:18.440 --> 1:05:23.040
<v Speaker 1>avian influenza from infecting humans and human influenza from infecting birds.

1:05:23.680 --> 1:05:27.800
<v Speaker 1>Not so the other assumption that spillover could happen, but

1:05:27.920 --> 1:05:31.720
<v Speaker 1>human to human transmission of an avia influenza virus was unlikely.

1:05:32.560 --> 1:05:36.080
<v Speaker 1>That was also about to be challenged. Even though the

1:05:36.120 --> 1:05:38.880
<v Speaker 1>culling of those one point two million chickens in Hong

1:05:39.000 --> 1:05:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Kong arrested the spread of H five and one to humans,

1:05:42.640 --> 1:05:48.120
<v Speaker 1>there was no eliminating it from bird populations. Highly pathogenic

1:05:48.160 --> 1:05:51.320
<v Speaker 1>avian influenza viruses popped up in the early two thousands,

1:05:51.360 --> 1:05:55.360
<v Speaker 1>again in domestic poultry, after causing huge outbreaks, some of

1:05:55.400 --> 1:05:58.720
<v Speaker 1>which were successfully controlled by culling, but the cat was

1:05:58.800 --> 1:06:01.360
<v Speaker 1>long out of the bag. H five and one was

1:06:01.400 --> 1:06:04.080
<v Speaker 1>detected in wild birds in Asia in two thousand and three,

1:06:04.200 --> 1:06:06.640
<v Speaker 1>and over the next few years the virus had spread

1:06:06.640 --> 1:06:10.200
<v Speaker 1>to poultry in Africa. The Middle East and Europe, causing

1:06:10.240 --> 1:06:12.720
<v Speaker 1>deadly outbreaks and birds, as well as spilling over to

1:06:12.800 --> 1:06:17.240
<v Speaker 1>humans where instances of human to human transmission seem to occur,

1:06:17.560 --> 1:06:22.640
<v Speaker 1>although in very limited chains. Up to this point, it's

1:06:22.680 --> 1:06:26.040
<v Speaker 1>somewhat debated what led to the spread of H five

1:06:26.120 --> 1:06:29.520
<v Speaker 1>and one, which is now globally distributed, but it seems

1:06:29.680 --> 1:06:33.760
<v Speaker 1>likely that it was migratory birds. Outbreaks on domestic poultry

1:06:33.800 --> 1:06:36.960
<v Speaker 1>farms seem to follow the timing and location of where

1:06:37.080 --> 1:06:41.240
<v Speaker 1>migratory birds are flying over, as do some human cases.

1:06:42.200 --> 1:06:44.000
<v Speaker 1>And Aaron, I'll leave it to you to give us

1:06:44.000 --> 1:06:46.760
<v Speaker 1>the final numbers on how many cases of H five

1:06:46.800 --> 1:06:49.440
<v Speaker 1>and one have occurred in humans, but I know it's

1:06:49.480 --> 1:06:53.480
<v Speaker 1>been in the hundreds, maybe eight hundred or so. With

1:06:53.560 --> 1:06:57.040
<v Speaker 1>that staggeringly high mortality rate you quoted, like fifty to

1:06:57.080 --> 1:07:01.000
<v Speaker 1>sixty percent in the age of COVID, A thousand or

1:07:01.040 --> 1:07:04.600
<v Speaker 1>so infections may seem like nothing at all, just a

1:07:04.680 --> 1:07:09.560
<v Speaker 1>day in your county, but it's truly not, especially when

1:07:09.600 --> 1:07:13.720
<v Speaker 1>the mortality rate is so high. Some people take comfort

1:07:13.720 --> 1:07:16.120
<v Speaker 1>in the fact that H five N one hasn't yet

1:07:16.160 --> 1:07:19.479
<v Speaker 1>evolved to be more transmissible of human to human, while

1:07:19.520 --> 1:07:23.400
<v Speaker 1>others feel it's just a matter of time. Complacency is

1:07:23.440 --> 1:07:28.120
<v Speaker 1>not acceptable. COVID showed us just how unprepared we were

1:07:28.760 --> 1:07:33.080
<v Speaker 1>and I worry still are for a pandemic. Public health

1:07:33.120 --> 1:07:36.360
<v Speaker 1>isn't just about control and containment. It's also about prevention.

1:07:37.200 --> 1:07:41.040
<v Speaker 1>It's the centers for disease control and prevention. Although people

1:07:41.160 --> 1:07:44.160
<v Speaker 1>often forget to include that last part, including us, we

1:07:44.440 --> 1:07:48.880
<v Speaker 1>often leave it off. Some viruses are extremely difficult to

1:07:48.960 --> 1:07:53.120
<v Speaker 1>control or contain once they emerge, especially if they're infectious

1:07:53.120 --> 1:07:57.320
<v Speaker 1>before causing symptoms, which makes them great pandemic viruses, as

1:07:57.400 --> 1:08:00.960
<v Speaker 1>we saw with SARS, Coby two nineteen eighteen, influenza virus,

1:08:01.480 --> 1:08:05.560
<v Speaker 1>and many other pandemic viruses, and so our best shot

1:08:05.760 --> 1:08:08.840
<v Speaker 1>lies in preventing them from emerging in the first place.

1:08:10.080 --> 1:08:12.959
<v Speaker 1>The good news is that we know the circumstances under

1:08:12.960 --> 1:08:16.160
<v Speaker 1>which these viruses are most likely to emerge and the

1:08:16.240 --> 1:08:19.479
<v Speaker 1>places where viral evolution and spillover is most.

1:08:19.320 --> 1:08:20.040
<v Speaker 4>Likely to happen.

1:08:21.000 --> 1:08:24.479
<v Speaker 1>The bad news is that these circumstances, the breeding grounds

1:08:24.479 --> 1:08:28.519
<v Speaker 1>for pandemic pathogens, not only still exist, but are likely

1:08:28.640 --> 1:08:33.000
<v Speaker 1>increasing in size and number, making spillover more likely and

1:08:33.160 --> 1:08:40.120
<v Speaker 1>monitoring for these pathogens more difficult. That combined with globalization. Well,

1:08:40.400 --> 1:08:46.160
<v Speaker 1>we know the rest massive unregulated farms where poultry or

1:08:46.200 --> 1:08:50.120
<v Speaker 1>pigs or cows all crowd together, wet markets where viruses

1:08:50.160 --> 1:08:53.679
<v Speaker 1>can commingle freely before spilling over to humans. Over use

1:08:53.720 --> 1:08:57.560
<v Speaker 1>of anti virals or antibiotics, and poultry leading to resistant strains,

1:08:57.920 --> 1:09:01.040
<v Speaker 1>fear of stigma or economic impact into the suppression of

1:09:01.080 --> 1:09:05.200
<v Speaker 1>disease reports. What's shocking to me is not that avian

1:09:05.200 --> 1:09:08.479
<v Speaker 1>influenza has spilled over into humans, but that there hasn't

1:09:08.560 --> 1:09:13.720
<v Speaker 1>yet been a pandemic. Reading about highly pathogenic avian influenza

1:09:13.880 --> 1:09:17.240
<v Speaker 1>filled me with such a creeping dread because it's the

1:09:17.320 --> 1:09:21.400
<v Speaker 1>same thing that we've seen time and time again. It's

1:09:21.400 --> 1:09:23.799
<v Speaker 1>what we saw with stars, it's what we saw with COVID,

1:09:24.200 --> 1:09:26.080
<v Speaker 1>and it's what we're going to see with the next

1:09:26.120 --> 1:09:30.280
<v Speaker 1>influenza pandemic. From the book I read that was published

1:09:30.320 --> 1:09:33.960
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and nine, quote, the moral of SARS

1:09:34.120 --> 1:09:37.599
<v Speaker 1>is clear. The flu virus must be controlled in birds,

1:09:37.720 --> 1:09:41.639
<v Speaker 1>whatever it takes. The microbial agent must be extinguished before

1:09:41.720 --> 1:09:45.559
<v Speaker 1>a readily transmissible flu strain jumps to people, because once

1:09:45.600 --> 1:09:48.880
<v Speaker 1>it does, global spread is inevitable. There won't be any

1:09:48.920 --> 1:09:49.640
<v Speaker 1>way to stop it.

1:09:50.400 --> 1:09:51.560
<v Speaker 2>End quote.

1:09:52.560 --> 1:09:56.480
<v Speaker 1>I think the biggest question that remains is what exactly

1:09:56.640 --> 1:10:00.360
<v Speaker 1>will it take to prevent the next influenza pandemic? And

1:10:00.439 --> 1:10:04.040
<v Speaker 1>are we equipped to do those things? Are we equipped

1:10:04.040 --> 1:10:05.479
<v Speaker 1>to do more than just react?

1:10:06.840 --> 1:10:07.479
<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

1:10:08.439 --> 1:10:10.519
<v Speaker 3>I don't have the answer to that either, so I

1:10:10.520 --> 1:10:11.000
<v Speaker 3>hope you're not.

1:10:11.920 --> 1:10:13.200
<v Speaker 2>I'm not I can answer that.

1:10:14.320 --> 1:10:16.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if anyone has the answer. I hope

1:10:17.000 --> 1:10:19.920
<v Speaker 1>people do. I won't ask you to answer, but I

1:10:19.960 --> 1:10:22.960
<v Speaker 1>will hand it over to you at this point to

1:10:23.040 --> 1:10:26.320
<v Speaker 1>fill me in on where we stand with influenza today.

1:10:27.280 --> 1:10:30.160
<v Speaker 2>Oh my gosh. I will try and do my best.

1:10:30.600 --> 1:11:09.080
<v Speaker 3>Right after this break, we'll talk briefly because I think

1:11:09.160 --> 1:11:14.280
<v Speaker 3>it's still deserving about epidemic flu and then get into

1:11:14.280 --> 1:11:17.240
<v Speaker 3>the details on the status of highly pathogenic Evian influenza,

1:11:17.320 --> 1:11:21.840
<v Speaker 3>and I will try to not end on the most

1:11:21.880 --> 1:11:28.639
<v Speaker 3>of downers, but no guarantees, so sorry. Every year, World

1:11:28.720 --> 1:11:33.679
<v Speaker 3>Health Organization estimates that anywhere from three to five million

1:11:33.720 --> 1:11:39.640
<v Speaker 3>people worldwide become severely ill from influenza. So I'm not

1:11:39.760 --> 1:11:42.920
<v Speaker 3>just talking like global numbers. I'm talking like sick enough

1:11:42.960 --> 1:11:46.520
<v Speaker 3>to matter to things like hospital systems and work systems,

1:11:46.640 --> 1:11:50.040
<v Speaker 3>et cetera. Three to five million people globally just from

1:11:50.320 --> 1:11:55.320
<v Speaker 3>epidemic every year seasonal influenza. And it's estimated that anywhere

1:11:55.360 --> 1:11:58.320
<v Speaker 3>between two hundred and ninety thousand and six hundred and

1:11:58.320 --> 1:12:02.960
<v Speaker 3>fifty thousand people die worldwide from the flu every year.

1:12:03.640 --> 1:12:05.640
<v Speaker 2>These are not small numbers, no, they're not.

1:12:06.240 --> 1:12:11.240
<v Speaker 3>In the US, it's estimated that between three and eleven percent,

1:12:11.439 --> 1:12:15.200
<v Speaker 3>depending on the year of the US population is symptomatic

1:12:15.439 --> 1:12:19.160
<v Speaker 3>from the flu, so not necessarily severely ill, but at least.

1:12:18.920 --> 1:12:20.320
<v Speaker 2>Symptomatic, okay.

1:12:20.880 --> 1:12:27.080
<v Speaker 3>And the estimated economic burden in the US alone is

1:12:27.160 --> 1:12:32.960
<v Speaker 3>between six to twenty five billion dollars a year from

1:12:33.000 --> 1:12:36.880
<v Speaker 3>both direct medical costs as well as indirect like time

1:12:36.960 --> 1:12:41.320
<v Speaker 3>missed from work, et cetera type costs. Dang, So, I

1:12:41.400 --> 1:12:44.160
<v Speaker 3>hope that we can all be on the same page

1:12:44.200 --> 1:12:48.320
<v Speaker 3>that even apart from the terror that is highly pathogenic

1:12:48.360 --> 1:12:53.880
<v Speaker 3>avian influenza, even apart from novel strains and pandemic potential,

1:12:54.600 --> 1:12:59.280
<v Speaker 3>annual flu epidemics are a big deal, and they're incredibly

1:12:59.320 --> 1:13:00.599
<v Speaker 3>costly in terms of.

1:13:00.640 --> 1:13:05.919
<v Speaker 2>Lives and dollars. So that's flu. It matters.

1:13:06.680 --> 1:13:11.520
<v Speaker 3>But then, of course there is highly pathogenic avian influenza,

1:13:11.560 --> 1:13:16.120
<v Speaker 3>and there is like you described, aaron massive pandemic potential,

1:13:16.280 --> 1:13:23.200
<v Speaker 3>and we all probably not just from your terrifying descriptions, sorry,

1:13:23.960 --> 1:13:29.560
<v Speaker 3>but also from currently living through a global respiratory viral pandemic.

1:13:29.640 --> 1:13:33.160
<v Speaker 3>I think we have a renewed appreciation for just how

1:13:33.240 --> 1:13:38.160
<v Speaker 3>serious and real this threat really is. So there is

1:13:38.200 --> 1:13:44.400
<v Speaker 3>a group of organizations, the World Health Global Influenza Program

1:13:44.600 --> 1:13:48.280
<v Speaker 3>developed a tool that's called the Tool for Influenza Pandemic

1:13:48.400 --> 1:13:52.320
<v Speaker 3>Risk Assessment, which basically joins together the World Health Organization,

1:13:52.960 --> 1:13:58.160
<v Speaker 3>the World Organization for Animal Health WOE like their acronym

1:13:58.520 --> 1:14:01.080
<v Speaker 3>used to be called the OIE, as well as the

1:14:01.080 --> 1:14:05.679
<v Speaker 3>Food and Agricultural Organization or the FAO, and these groups together,

1:14:05.960 --> 1:14:10.879
<v Speaker 3>and I would say predominantly the WOE attempt to monitor

1:14:11.000 --> 1:14:14.840
<v Speaker 3>and assess the risk of pandemic influenza from a one

1:14:15.000 --> 1:14:16.000
<v Speaker 3>health perspective.

1:14:16.280 --> 1:14:17.639
<v Speaker 2>We love to see it right.

1:14:18.240 --> 1:14:18.920
<v Speaker 1>One health is.

1:14:18.880 --> 1:14:20.280
<v Speaker 2>Great, One health is great.

1:14:20.640 --> 1:14:23.559
<v Speaker 3>But I will say, as much as I did find

1:14:23.640 --> 1:14:27.720
<v Speaker 3>data on the WOE page, I was a little bit

1:14:27.800 --> 1:14:31.720
<v Speaker 3>disappointed that the World Health Organization page on Avian influenza

1:14:31.760 --> 1:14:35.880
<v Speaker 3>hasn't been updated since twenty eighteen, and the most recent

1:14:35.960 --> 1:14:39.200
<v Speaker 3>maps that you can find of HPAI from them at

1:14:39.280 --> 1:14:42.280
<v Speaker 3>least are actually dated all the way back to twenty fourteen,

1:14:42.760 --> 1:14:45.439
<v Speaker 3>so it's a little bit difficult at least if you're

1:14:45.479 --> 1:14:47.880
<v Speaker 3>just going directly to the World Health Organization to try

1:14:47.880 --> 1:14:50.280
<v Speaker 3>and access the more current data.

1:14:51.120 --> 1:14:53.680
<v Speaker 1>That's disappointing.

1:14:53.880 --> 1:14:56.240
<v Speaker 2>It's a little disappointing. Let's move on.

1:14:57.479 --> 1:15:01.360
<v Speaker 3>When we look at human infections as of a paper

1:15:01.400 --> 1:15:04.160
<v Speaker 3>that was published in twenty twenty, so these numbers are

1:15:04.479 --> 1:15:08.880
<v Speaker 3>likely from twenty nineteen and maybe early twenty twenty, there

1:15:08.920 --> 1:15:13.679
<v Speaker 3>have been eight hundred and eighty three officially reported highly

1:15:13.720 --> 1:15:18.639
<v Speaker 3>pathogenic avian influenza cases in humans. Eight hundred and sixty

1:15:18.680 --> 1:15:21.760
<v Speaker 3>of those have been caused by H five and one,

1:15:21.800 --> 1:15:24.759
<v Speaker 3>and twenty three of them from H five and six.

1:15:25.920 --> 1:15:29.280
<v Speaker 3>And these numbers are only slightly higher than what I

1:15:29.360 --> 1:15:34.679
<v Speaker 3>actually reported back in twenty seventeen in our very first episode. However,

1:15:35.160 --> 1:15:38.320
<v Speaker 3>it is also still true that of those over four

1:15:38.400 --> 1:15:42.000
<v Speaker 3>hundred and fifty have died as a result of their infection,

1:15:42.120 --> 1:15:47.400
<v Speaker 3>which is an over fifty percent mortality rate, and that's terrifying. Yeah,

1:15:48.240 --> 1:15:50.960
<v Speaker 3>But where it gets way more terrifying is just if

1:15:51.000 --> 1:15:56.280
<v Speaker 3>we look at what's happening in birds. So if we

1:15:56.360 --> 1:15:59.479
<v Speaker 3>look just at the US alone, because it was easy

1:15:59.560 --> 1:16:01.519
<v Speaker 3>to get really good numbers.

1:16:01.600 --> 1:16:02.560
<v Speaker 2>In the US.

1:16:03.520 --> 1:16:08.320
<v Speaker 3>As of October thirteenth, twenty twenty two, two pm Eastern,

1:16:09.720 --> 1:16:14.640
<v Speaker 3>there have been forty seven million, three hundred ninety two thousand,

1:16:15.160 --> 1:16:20.080
<v Speaker 3>four hundred ninety eight cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza

1:16:20.240 --> 1:16:26.400
<v Speaker 3>in domestic birds since January of this year, forty seven

1:16:26.439 --> 1:16:31.840
<v Speaker 3>million across forty two states in five hundred twenty eight

1:16:31.960 --> 1:16:39.120
<v Speaker 3>different reported outbreaks since January in the United States, and

1:16:39.560 --> 1:16:43.840
<v Speaker 3>two thousand, nine hundred and thirty in wild birds in

1:16:44.000 --> 1:16:49.280
<v Speaker 3>five hundred eighty three separate outbreaks across forty six states.

1:16:49.040 --> 1:16:52.639
<v Speaker 1>So some pretty terrible numbers there h So.

1:16:52.720 --> 1:16:56.800
<v Speaker 3>Far, only one human case has been reported in the US,

1:16:57.160 --> 1:17:00.640
<v Speaker 3>in someone who was working directly with calling infected back

1:17:00.720 --> 1:17:01.720
<v Speaker 3>in April in.

1:17:01.800 --> 1:17:05.719
<v Speaker 1>Colorado Shout out and shouta yep.

1:17:06.280 --> 1:17:10.080
<v Speaker 3>They survived and had a relatively mild infection. But this

1:17:10.160 --> 1:17:15.040
<v Speaker 3>is continuing to spread, including among wild birds, many of

1:17:15.040 --> 1:17:19.320
<v Speaker 3>which have now begun their migrations south, and therefore this

1:17:19.400 --> 1:17:24.040
<v Speaker 3>is not the end. If we look globally, this is

1:17:24.120 --> 1:17:27.519
<v Speaker 3>not something that this year is just happening in the US.

1:17:28.640 --> 1:17:32.240
<v Speaker 3>According to the WOE, the World Organization on Animal Health,

1:17:33.080 --> 1:17:37.400
<v Speaker 3>there have been outbreaks either singular or more commonly plural,

1:17:38.280 --> 1:17:43.599
<v Speaker 3>that are ongoing in Mexico, Canada, the US of course.

1:17:44.400 --> 1:17:51.719
<v Speaker 3>In Europe, outbreaks have been reported in Bulgaria, Hungary, the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Moldova, Spain, France,

1:17:51.760 --> 1:17:56.800
<v Speaker 3>and Poland. In Africa, outbreaks have been reported in Nigeria.

1:17:57.439 --> 1:18:01.080
<v Speaker 3>In Asia, they've been reported in Japan, Taipei, and the

1:18:01.120 --> 1:18:04.200
<v Speaker 3>Philippines so far in twenty twenty two.

1:18:04.960 --> 1:18:05.920
<v Speaker 2>And to be.

1:18:05.920 --> 1:18:09.120
<v Speaker 3>Completely honest, that might not actually be all of them,

1:18:09.280 --> 1:18:12.840
<v Speaker 3>because the way that the WOE reports things out is

1:18:13.120 --> 1:18:18.400
<v Speaker 3>monthly or sometimes every couple of months, but they report

1:18:18.479 --> 1:18:23.600
<v Speaker 3>out current outbreaks that have new cases and new outbreaks,

1:18:23.680 --> 1:18:26.720
<v Speaker 3>but not necessarily if there were outbreaks that don't have

1:18:26.800 --> 1:18:30.760
<v Speaker 3>new cases reported and I couldn't find nice like cumulative

1:18:30.800 --> 1:18:34.360
<v Speaker 3>summary reports from twenty twenty two so far, Okay, so

1:18:34.400 --> 1:18:36.600
<v Speaker 3>there may be countries that had outbreaks earlier in the

1:18:36.640 --> 1:18:41.240
<v Speaker 3>year that I missed, But in short, in this year alone,

1:18:41.439 --> 1:18:46.960
<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty two, we are looking at hundreds, if not thousands,

1:18:47.000 --> 1:18:49.360
<v Speaker 3>of individual outbreaks.

1:18:49.120 --> 1:18:52.080
<v Speaker 2>Accounting for millions.

1:18:51.560 --> 1:18:56.240
<v Speaker 3>Of cases in both wild and domestic birds in dozens

1:18:56.320 --> 1:18:58.400
<v Speaker 3>of countries across the globe.

1:18:58.960 --> 1:19:01.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean how many more times this episode can we

1:19:01.080 --> 1:19:02.200
<v Speaker 1>say it's terrifying.

1:19:02.680 --> 1:19:05.360
<v Speaker 3>Well, we can say it one more time after this,

1:19:05.920 --> 1:19:10.000
<v Speaker 3>because right now it's October, and September tends to be

1:19:10.040 --> 1:19:14.280
<v Speaker 3>the lull of cases, and then it often picks back

1:19:14.360 --> 1:19:17.920
<v Speaker 3>up in October with peaks in February. And what's been

1:19:17.960 --> 1:19:21.160
<v Speaker 3>really scary about this season in particular is that what

1:19:21.200 --> 1:19:25.080
<v Speaker 3>we saw throughout all of these outbreaks is that they

1:19:25.080 --> 1:19:28.840
<v Speaker 3>didn't go away in the summer. Even in places like

1:19:28.920 --> 1:19:32.240
<v Speaker 3>the US, where usually you would see like really low,

1:19:32.360 --> 1:19:35.679
<v Speaker 3>almost no numbers of avian influenza across the summer months,

1:19:35.960 --> 1:19:39.439
<v Speaker 3>we didn't see like complete elimination during those months like

1:19:39.479 --> 1:19:42.920
<v Speaker 3>we usually have in the past. Why they just have

1:19:43.080 --> 1:19:48.880
<v Speaker 3>continued to spread. Why they've made it into particular bird populations.

1:19:48.240 --> 1:19:49.240
<v Speaker 2>That have allowed it?

1:19:50.000 --> 1:19:50.240
<v Speaker 3>Why?

1:19:51.240 --> 1:19:51.479
<v Speaker 2>Why?

1:19:54.120 --> 1:19:56.760
<v Speaker 3>And like you said, Aaron, prevention.

1:19:56.720 --> 1:20:00.160
<v Speaker 2>Is incredibly difficult.

1:20:00.840 --> 1:20:05.519
<v Speaker 3>Of course, there are recommendations things like separating wild and

1:20:05.600 --> 1:20:10.840
<v Speaker 3>domestic birds to reduce contact between these populations, ensuring good

1:20:10.920 --> 1:20:14.839
<v Speaker 3>hygienes and poultry facilities, but we know that's very difficult.

1:20:14.880 --> 1:20:15.920
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't always happen.

1:20:17.080 --> 1:20:20.840
<v Speaker 3>Vaccination of birds can be helpful to some extent, but

1:20:20.960 --> 1:20:26.120
<v Speaker 3>it doesn't do anything for wild bird populations, and the

1:20:26.160 --> 1:20:31.360
<v Speaker 3>same limitations on vaccines for birds exist as those for humans,

1:20:31.360 --> 1:20:33.400
<v Speaker 3>which I'll talk more about in just a minute. But

1:20:33.720 --> 1:20:38.479
<v Speaker 3>our vaccines are not perfect, and rapid containment once we've

1:20:38.520 --> 1:20:42.280
<v Speaker 3>identified outbreaks is really important. But like you mentioned, Aaron,

1:20:42.320 --> 1:20:46.760
<v Speaker 3>this usually involves culling, which is a difficult thing to

1:20:46.920 --> 1:20:51.160
<v Speaker 3>ask of people because that's a huge financial stressor. And

1:20:51.200 --> 1:20:55.600
<v Speaker 3>not everywhere, like not every government financially compensates people for

1:20:55.680 --> 1:20:56.919
<v Speaker 3>the loss of their flocks.

1:20:58.080 --> 1:21:00.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

1:21:00.920 --> 1:21:03.040
<v Speaker 3>On top of that, just to make it a little

1:21:03.080 --> 1:21:05.160
<v Speaker 3>bit worse, is pile it on you want to pile it.

1:21:06.400 --> 1:21:11.479
<v Speaker 3>Urbanization and habitat loss for wild birds, especially waterfowl, means

1:21:11.479 --> 1:21:15.040
<v Speaker 3>that both humans and our domestic animals are naturally put

1:21:15.120 --> 1:21:17.559
<v Speaker 3>into closer and closer contact with these birds on a

1:21:17.560 --> 1:21:20.920
<v Speaker 3>regular basis, and so it's just so much easier for

1:21:21.000 --> 1:21:22.600
<v Speaker 3>transmission to cross species.

1:21:24.479 --> 1:21:28.479
<v Speaker 2>Yep. So none of that was.

1:21:28.720 --> 1:21:33.200
<v Speaker 3>Good news, but that is the truth of where we

1:21:33.240 --> 1:21:36.519
<v Speaker 3>stand with highly pathogenic avian influenza. Twenty twenty two has

1:21:36.560 --> 1:21:39.559
<v Speaker 3>been a particularly bad year, especially in the US. We

1:21:39.640 --> 1:21:42.800
<v Speaker 3>haven't seen an outbreak like this since twenty fifteen, when

1:21:42.800 --> 1:21:46.160
<v Speaker 3>we had an outbreak of fifty million birds, and we're

1:21:46.280 --> 1:21:50.040
<v Speaker 3>almost there and it's October. So let's see if we

1:21:50.080 --> 1:21:54.120
<v Speaker 3>can find any good news, any silver linings.

1:21:54.640 --> 1:21:55.280
<v Speaker 1>Vaccines.

1:21:55.439 --> 1:21:57.599
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, not so, I guess I wouldn't say silver

1:21:57.640 --> 1:21:59.880
<v Speaker 3>linings with just like things to look for.

1:22:00.280 --> 1:22:03.320
<v Speaker 5>Would do things to have to cling to hope, There

1:22:03.360 --> 1:22:08.599
<v Speaker 5>we go, hope clingers. Yeah, vaccines, you're right erin so

1:22:09.200 --> 1:22:11.320
<v Speaker 5>everyone knows that every year we have to get a

1:22:11.320 --> 1:22:13.600
<v Speaker 5>new flu shot. Every year, your doctor's like, did you

1:22:13.600 --> 1:22:14.479
<v Speaker 5>get your flu shot?

1:22:15.200 --> 1:22:18.200
<v Speaker 3>And every year, at the end of flu season, we

1:22:18.280 --> 1:22:21.960
<v Speaker 3>find out how effective or not so effective that year's

1:22:22.040 --> 1:22:25.799
<v Speaker 3>vaccine was. The reason that we have these different shots

1:22:25.840 --> 1:22:29.200
<v Speaker 3>every year is because of how much variety there is

1:22:29.320 --> 1:22:33.639
<v Speaker 3>in the genome of influenza viruses, because of that antigenic drift,

1:22:33.840 --> 1:22:37.880
<v Speaker 3>especially those small mutations that are happening every year, and

1:22:37.960 --> 1:22:42.799
<v Speaker 3>so every year the vaccine aims to cover the most

1:22:43.080 --> 1:22:47.679
<v Speaker 3>likely circulating strains. But the current vaccines that we have

1:22:47.880 --> 1:22:52.519
<v Speaker 3>are far from perfect. A. We don't always get strains right.

1:22:52.880 --> 1:22:57.519
<v Speaker 3>Sometimes they continue to mutate and we get them wrong. B.

1:22:58.040 --> 1:23:02.599
<v Speaker 3>The vaccines themselves are not the most immunogenic, and so

1:23:02.680 --> 1:23:06.439
<v Speaker 3>we don't actually mount like that incredible of an immune

1:23:06.479 --> 1:23:11.120
<v Speaker 3>response to them and see, because of the way that

1:23:11.160 --> 1:23:16.480
<v Speaker 3>we currently produce influenza vaccines, which is using eggs as incubators,

1:23:16.920 --> 1:23:20.760
<v Speaker 3>sometimes these viral strains actually mutate in the eggs to

1:23:20.840 --> 1:23:23.960
<v Speaker 3>become less effective during the process of replication.

1:23:24.400 --> 1:23:25.000
<v Speaker 1>Fantastic.

1:23:25.400 --> 1:23:29.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So that's why effectiveness can vary anywhere from ten

1:23:29.240 --> 1:23:33.240
<v Speaker 3>to sixty percent year to year. Now, I will say

1:23:33.520 --> 1:23:36.840
<v Speaker 3>that even a less effective flu vaccine tends to still

1:23:36.880 --> 1:23:42.160
<v Speaker 3>provide good protection against severe disease and death and hospitalization,

1:23:42.840 --> 1:23:46.639
<v Speaker 3>even though it may not protect as well against infection itself.

1:23:47.160 --> 1:23:49.960
<v Speaker 3>So don't think that I'm saying don't get your flu shot.

1:23:50.600 --> 1:23:53.160
<v Speaker 3>It is imperfect, but for right now, it's the best

1:23:53.160 --> 1:23:56.160
<v Speaker 3>that we have, and something is a lot better than nothing.

1:23:56.960 --> 1:23:59.479
<v Speaker 3>But the real question is, and has been for a

1:23:59.520 --> 1:24:03.320
<v Speaker 3>long time, like can we do better, and especially can

1:24:03.400 --> 1:24:07.240
<v Speaker 3>we develop a universal flu vaccine, something that protects against

1:24:07.240 --> 1:24:11.640
<v Speaker 3>a wider variety of strains and does so more effectively,

1:24:12.680 --> 1:24:16.400
<v Speaker 3>a vaccine that could, in theory even protect against these

1:24:16.520 --> 1:24:20.280
<v Speaker 3>pandemic potential strains that we don't even know about yet.

1:24:20.560 --> 1:24:23.120
<v Speaker 3>And the answer is, there's a lot of people who

1:24:23.160 --> 1:24:26.479
<v Speaker 3>think we can, and so they've dedicated their lives to

1:24:26.560 --> 1:24:31.040
<v Speaker 3>working towards it. We still don't have one that I

1:24:31.080 --> 1:24:34.519
<v Speaker 3>can say in the next X number of months or years,

1:24:34.640 --> 1:24:37.559
<v Speaker 3>we're going to have a universal flu vaccine.

1:24:37.760 --> 1:24:40.680
<v Speaker 2>There are I think two that.

1:24:40.760 --> 1:24:43.960
<v Speaker 3>I found in the last couple of years that have

1:24:44.160 --> 1:24:48.040
<v Speaker 3>made it either two or through phase one clinical trials

1:24:48.560 --> 1:24:52.519
<v Speaker 3>that have a lot of potential. One of them is

1:24:52.560 --> 1:24:55.040
<v Speaker 3>from a paper that was published in twenty twenty and

1:24:55.080 --> 1:24:58.040
<v Speaker 3>I tried to get a sense of where it stands today,

1:24:58.080 --> 1:25:01.640
<v Speaker 3>but I couldn't quite, but I'll post the paper so

1:25:01.680 --> 1:25:04.840
<v Speaker 3>that you can read it. It's a really interesting vaccine

1:25:04.920 --> 1:25:12.559
<v Speaker 3>that is made of chimeric h antigens beautiful. So what

1:25:12.640 --> 1:25:17.000
<v Speaker 3>they did is that they linked those conserved portions of

1:25:17.040 --> 1:25:21.439
<v Speaker 3>the H antigen which are similar across a whole bunch

1:25:21.520 --> 1:25:24.719
<v Speaker 3>of different strains H one and two and three, et cetera.

1:25:25.680 --> 1:25:27.639
<v Speaker 2>But usually isn't.

1:25:27.479 --> 1:25:30.960
<v Speaker 3>The part that our immune system responds to and makes

1:25:31.000 --> 1:25:35.960
<v Speaker 3>antibodies against, because it's usually the head, the different part

1:25:36.320 --> 1:25:39.599
<v Speaker 3>of the H anigen that is the most immunogenic, so

1:25:39.600 --> 1:25:41.679
<v Speaker 3>that we are making the most antibodies towards.

1:25:42.600 --> 1:25:45.320
<v Speaker 2>So this vaccine it makes.

1:25:45.120 --> 1:25:50.120
<v Speaker 3>Specific hs that have a less immunogenic head, but a

1:25:50.280 --> 1:25:54.800
<v Speaker 3>very immunogenic stock that is conserved across all of these

1:25:54.800 --> 1:25:58.760
<v Speaker 3>different strains, so it allows for you to mount a

1:25:58.800 --> 1:26:02.360
<v Speaker 3>really good amount of immune response against that stock.

1:26:03.040 --> 1:26:03.640
<v Speaker 1>Interesting.

1:26:03.880 --> 1:26:06.439
<v Speaker 3>I love it. And so in phase one trials it

1:26:06.520 --> 1:26:09.719
<v Speaker 3>did really well. People mounted a really great immune response.

1:26:10.040 --> 1:26:13.400
<v Speaker 3>But what we don't know yet, because we need more trials,

1:26:13.479 --> 1:26:16.040
<v Speaker 3>is to know how does that play out in actual

1:26:16.400 --> 1:26:20.880
<v Speaker 3>flu infections? How well does that protect you against actual infection? Right,

1:26:21.439 --> 1:26:26.240
<v Speaker 3>but it's exciting. The other vaccine that actually started phase

1:26:26.280 --> 1:26:30.639
<v Speaker 3>one trials with NIH this year is a whole virus

1:26:30.720 --> 1:26:36.840
<v Speaker 3>vaccine that is made of low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses,

1:26:37.960 --> 1:26:41.280
<v Speaker 3>and the hope at least this is what happened in mice,

1:26:42.080 --> 1:26:47.439
<v Speaker 3>is that these mice mounted very robust immune responses that

1:26:47.479 --> 1:26:51.320
<v Speaker 3>then actually were protective against a wide variety of strains,

1:26:51.360 --> 1:26:53.439
<v Speaker 3>including those not included in.

1:26:53.360 --> 1:26:55.240
<v Speaker 2>The vaccine, which is fascinating.

1:26:55.360 --> 1:26:55.960
<v Speaker 1>That's cool.

1:26:56.320 --> 1:27:00.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And so that vaccine is currently undergoing phase one

1:27:00.720 --> 1:27:04.439
<v Speaker 3>trials right now twenty twenty two, so we'll see what

1:27:04.560 --> 1:27:05.080
<v Speaker 3>comes of it.

1:27:05.120 --> 1:27:07.920
<v Speaker 2>But it's hopeful. That's where we stand.

1:27:09.520 --> 1:27:12.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's I feel like that's that's pretty good.

1:27:12.320 --> 1:27:14.160
<v Speaker 1>I feel like I was a little bit down on

1:27:14.240 --> 1:27:18.960
<v Speaker 1>humanity and that that might be from COVID, you know,

1:27:19.240 --> 1:27:20.960
<v Speaker 1>living through the COVID pandemic.

1:27:21.320 --> 1:27:24.599
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I think it's reasonable. I think I think

1:27:24.640 --> 1:27:28.719
<v Speaker 3>that the idea of in the paper or the book

1:27:28.720 --> 1:27:32.000
<v Speaker 3>that you cited of like we must eliminate this microbe,

1:27:32.680 --> 1:27:35.240
<v Speaker 3>like that's not realistic. No, I don't think that that's

1:27:35.280 --> 1:27:39.200
<v Speaker 3>a thing that is possible, given how widespread influenza is,

1:27:39.280 --> 1:27:43.200
<v Speaker 3>given how rapidly it mutates, it's just not possible. I

1:27:43.280 --> 1:27:46.519
<v Speaker 3>do think that creating a vaccine that does a really

1:27:46.520 --> 1:27:52.320
<v Speaker 3>good job at preventing severe illness, at preventing death, I

1:27:52.400 --> 1:27:55.840
<v Speaker 3>do think that that's possible, and so I have hope.

1:27:56.479 --> 1:28:00.559
<v Speaker 1>I think that's possible. I think that raises the issue

1:28:00.600 --> 1:28:06.200
<v Speaker 1>of access and equitability across different countries. And so you're

1:28:06.280 --> 1:28:08.439
<v Speaker 1>right in that it's in the birds. It's not going

1:28:08.479 --> 1:28:11.400
<v Speaker 1>to leave the birds. It's going to keep evolving and

1:28:11.479 --> 1:28:14.880
<v Speaker 1>mutating in the birds and spreading and so on and

1:28:14.920 --> 1:28:17.880
<v Speaker 1>so forth and more spillovers. And I think that the

1:28:17.920 --> 1:28:21.280
<v Speaker 1>most important thing to target is those opportunities for spillover

1:28:21.360 --> 1:28:26.880
<v Speaker 1>and the opportunities for mixing and like reassortment of different viruses.

1:28:28.360 --> 1:28:31.439
<v Speaker 1>And that's difficult to do. There are a lot of

1:28:31.439 --> 1:28:35.560
<v Speaker 1>different drivers. It's not just about Okay, we'll just stop.

1:28:35.320 --> 1:28:40.160
<v Speaker 2>This right, Nope, it's complicated.

1:28:40.320 --> 1:28:42.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, application always is.

1:28:44.920 --> 1:28:45.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, that was a lot.

1:28:46.280 --> 1:28:46.920
<v Speaker 1>That was a lot.

1:28:47.080 --> 1:28:48.639
<v Speaker 2>That was a lot of influenza talk.

1:28:49.160 --> 1:28:52.400
<v Speaker 1>I have one more question. Okay, how scared do we

1:28:52.439 --> 1:28:56.240
<v Speaker 1>need to be? Oharin, I'm just kidding because right now

1:28:56.240 --> 1:28:59.679
<v Speaker 1>I have open on my computer screen the transcript from

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<v Speaker 1>our Influenza episode from twenty seventeen to quote you.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, what did I say? Go ahead and.

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<v Speaker 1>Get your seasonal flu shot, wash your hands, and just

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<v Speaker 1>be a little afraid. I guess. Oh, then you add

1:29:16.479 --> 1:29:17.799
<v Speaker 1>don't hang around birds?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? I love that, love it.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you echo those sentiments today?

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<v Speaker 2>I would say, way to go twenty seventeen, Aarin, you

1:29:28.479 --> 1:29:34.360
<v Speaker 2>knew it? Yeah, yeah, yep.

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<v Speaker 1>Well sources, yeah, I have, unlike our twenty seventeen episode,

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<v Speaker 1>a ton of sources for this episode.

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<v Speaker 2>So embarrassing. How few sources we had for like what

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<v Speaker 2>we didn't?

1:29:50.360 --> 1:29:50.599
<v Speaker 3>You know?

1:29:50.680 --> 1:29:54.760
<v Speaker 1>We hadn't hit our stride. Yeah, I will shout out

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<v Speaker 1>again the Book of the Fatal Strain by Alan Cippras.

1:29:57.960 --> 1:30:00.960
<v Speaker 1>And I have a ton of paper that I will

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<v Speaker 1>post on our website post for this episode.

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<v Speaker 3>I also had quite a number of papers for this episode.

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<v Speaker 3>One that I did really like was actually from twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty one and it was called Influenza virus and SARS

1:30:13.280 --> 1:30:16.599
<v Speaker 3>CoV two Pathogenesis and Host response in the Respiratory Tract.

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<v Speaker 3>Super interesting because it compared influenza virus and SARS CoV two,

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<v Speaker 3>so that might be of interest to a lot of people.

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<v Speaker 3>Had a number of other papers on the specific pathogenicity

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<v Speaker 3>and a few if anyone wants to deep dive, especially

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<v Speaker 3>on the transmission aspects of influenza viruses, and then of

1:30:34.840 --> 1:30:37.559
<v Speaker 3>course a number of other papers on the current status

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<v Speaker 3>as well as where we stand with universal flu vaccines.

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<v Speaker 2>So we will post all of.

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<v Speaker 3>Our sources from this episode and every one of our

1:30:46.479 --> 1:30:51.519
<v Speaker 3>five entire seasons on our website, This podcast will kill

1:30:51.600 --> 1:30:52.679
<v Speaker 3>You dot Com.

1:30:53.120 --> 1:30:56.760
<v Speaker 1>Thanks to Bloodmobile for providing the music for this episode

1:30:56.800 --> 1:31:00.000
<v Speaker 1>and all of our episodes. Thank you to the execution

1:31:00.080 --> 1:31:04.120
<v Speaker 1>the Right Network, and thank you to you listeners. We

1:31:04.320 --> 1:31:08.200
<v Speaker 1>really couldn't do this without you. Nope, we wouldn't do

1:31:08.240 --> 1:31:09.599
<v Speaker 1>this without you, Nope.

1:31:10.040 --> 1:31:13.960
<v Speaker 3>I hope that y'all enjoyed this season and we're really

1:31:14.000 --> 1:31:15.360
<v Speaker 3>looking forward to next season.

1:31:15.400 --> 1:31:16.240
<v Speaker 2>It's going to be great.

1:31:16.640 --> 1:31:19.800
<v Speaker 1>If you have any suggestions that you would just absolutely

1:31:19.800 --> 1:31:22.120
<v Speaker 1>have to hear about, or if you have a first

1:31:22.160 --> 1:31:24.240
<v Speaker 1>hand account that you would like to share, please reach

1:31:24.280 --> 1:31:26.400
<v Speaker 1>out to us at this podcast We'll Kill You at

1:31:26.439 --> 1:31:29.960
<v Speaker 1>gmail dot com or on the contact us link on

1:31:30.040 --> 1:31:30.800
<v Speaker 1>our website.

1:31:31.240 --> 1:31:34.360
<v Speaker 3>And as always a special thank you to our patrons.

1:31:34.479 --> 1:31:37.400
<v Speaker 3>Your support means more than we can possibly say.

1:31:37.560 --> 1:31:41.440
<v Speaker 1>Think it means the world. It means the world. Well

1:31:41.560 --> 1:31:48.040
<v Speaker 1>until next season, so Weird. Wash your hands, you filthy animals.

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<v Speaker 3>U u U