WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 18, 2025 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.840 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Peter cheerf Academy Securities 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.839 in the recession camp, Aliskalou of Bank of America on 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:43.880 a cautious global fund manager survey, and Kidjigs of salt 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.920 Gen looking for the big Euro rally to continue. We 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:49.080 begin this sour with stock steady as the Fed kicks 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:52.240 off a two day meeting. Peter cheerf Academy Securities, writing, 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:54.360 I don't see the Fed acting in a big enough 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:56.680 way to what set the risk that I see the 0:00:56.800 --> 0:01:00.200 convergence of so many policies seems to risk a recession 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:03.880 before any probability of seeing the benefits. Pete joins us 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:06.319 now for more. Pak mourned makes me sound so various. 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:08.679 You've got to say you're sounding incredibly bearish. Are you 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:09.240 saying you're not? 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:10.479 No, I actually am. 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.039 I think one thing is even the prior discussion. I 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:14.840 think a big part of the change is we are 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:18.440 trading capital flows for trade benefits. 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:19.319 Right, so we're going after trade. 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:21.399 I think we're seeing capital outflows and it spent a 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:23.440 perfect mix for taking. 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:24.400 Capital outside of the US. 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:26.199 All of a sudden, you have yields up in Japan, 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:28.480 you have yields up in Germany, so you can actually 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:30.240 get some return on that side. And when you look 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:33.400 at equity valuations, all these other markets had lower evaluations. 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:34.920 So I think one of the big problems. 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.120 With our strategy so far has rather than having people 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.640 come to the table begging for mercy, it's actually pulled 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:42.200 money out of the system. It's made people rethink things, 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:44.280 and they're not rethinking things in a way that really 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:46.240 involves the US. I think people are trying to rethink 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:48.480 things away from the US, and that's the negative. 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.880 That was not the objective. These are unintended consequences, and 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:54.040 for the market, the consensus view was that some of 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.400 these policies would lead to dollar strength, they've led to 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:58.800 dollar weakness. That speaks to the capital flows story. Do 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:00.640 you see this turning around soon? 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:02.680 You know, yesterday was the first day we really went 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:04.760 the full day without any big tariff headlines. People have 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:07.880 seemed that maybe there is a trumpet. Maybe you realize, hey, 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.920 bashing on tariffs every single day, bashing our allies is 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:12.840 not a good strategy, and you keep looking at it. 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:16.120 We've been searching for where's all this excess capacity. So one, 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.120 there isn't a ton of access capacity. So if we 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:21.359 just make things more expensive coming in here, it will 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:23.160 flow through a little bit. And then you have China. 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.800 China's the one with access capacity. Their pricing is so 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:28.400 cheap that twenty percent tariffs that we've added don't really 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:31.040 make them uncompetitive. So I think we have to rethink 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:33.600 this and do some sort of holistic strategy that has 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:35.400 a one to sort of three year plan. 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:37.160 How do we build steel plants in the US. 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:38.639 There's so many things that need to be done to 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.200 make this effective, and we just dumped everything in day 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:42.320 one and it's been a mess. 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:44.760 There's shifts in capital flows that are easier to see 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:45.239 than others. 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:46.120 One of them is just. 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:48.240 Looking at the euro versus the dollar. One of them 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:52.000 is looking at stocklocase and shifting to the euroregion rather 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:55.560 than the US. You've raised a point about boycotts or 0:02:55.760 --> 0:03:00.960 basically withdrawing from American brands overseas. Any signs of that 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:04.400 other than say Tesla, which is somewhat idiosyncratic, It's. 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.120 Hard to tell, but I think you are seeing a 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:08.200 little bit of evidence that people are okay at the 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:11.120 margin shifting away from American brands. And I think American 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.600 brands represented so many positive things, and I really think 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:16.919 the administration is at risk that there were so many 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:20.360 intangible benefits from what the US does, from the presence 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.520 that we had kind of this benevolent superpower, and as 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:25.280 that goes away, I think we lose some of the 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:28.160 reputation and that hurts. And unfortunately too, I think the 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:30.560 way we've thrown out all these tariffs, even if you 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:32.520 didn't like China, you kind of have to come knocking 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:34.480 a China's door and say, hey, maybe we should be 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:35.120 doing business. 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:37.160 Is there a risk that people are getting over their 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.360 skis with all this pessimism that if you take a 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:41.920 look at the actual policies. We haven't seen the more 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.520 positive sides of things. Not all of the people are 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:47.040 in their seats yet. In terms of executing these we 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:49.600 haven't been through April. Second, and if you actually look 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:52.119 at growth, it isn't that bad. Even the airlines, which 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:55.320 everyone uses the example of a slowdown, are still booking 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:56.680 at pretty healthy rates. 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:57.720 What's that risk? 0:03:57.960 --> 0:03:59.680 So I think the risk is where we're headed. 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:02.000 I think the things that Doge has been doing so one, 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:04.840 we're cutting some spending that does flow through the economy. 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:06.920 I think you're seeing that it's very difficult to get 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:10.800 jobs for those people who are getting left behind. But 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.360 then more importantly to me is there's so much uncertainty. 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:15.880 It's putting plans on hold. So you normally like to 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:18.960 do things that pull demand and you know, hiring forward. 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:20.920 If anything, I were pushing it further away. 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.080 Right. There's no one that we talk to really. 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.040 That's saying, well, I have to bring my construction back 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:27.760 to the US from say Canada or Mexico because I 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:29.039 don't know how long these terrafs last. 0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:30.039 They might only last a month. 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:31.680 That would be silly for me, and it's going to 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:33.480 take months and months if not years to do this, 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.760 so I think there's a lot of hiring on you know, freeze. 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:38.920 So unless the Fed does something tomorrow, which they might, 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:40.800 but I don't think they will. When we see a 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:43.080 real change in messaging, I think we resume the sell 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:44.560 off and I think we're going to head to bear 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:46.320 market territory down at least twenty percent. 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.800 Are you saying that the tariff uncertainty can tip the 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:50.760 US into recession just that alone? 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:54.080 I think that combination of the spending cuts that we're doing, 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:56.800 the firing in that sector, it was already I think 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:58.920 I look at the quits rate, right, the job market 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:01.400 wasn't that great. I think the official data tends to 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:04.600 get overstated in January February because they're still miscalculating a 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:06.839 bunch of the seasonals. So if we tip over into 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:11.000 weak employment, people on hold no one quite understanding the 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:12.000 cost of goods, which I. 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:13.279 Think will go up to some degree. 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:15.720 Yeah, I think we tip into recession far faster than 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:19.440 people think, And maybe we're already at that sort of stage. 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:21.800 We're an inflection point. This morning. You have a bunch 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.360 of generals you consult with at the firm, What do 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:27.360 they make going into this phone call between Trump and Putin. 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.200 You know, so one to take a step back. 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:31.000 I think one thing they were all very positive on 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:33.640 was the actions in the Middle East to clear up shipping. 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:36.120 I think that's the right sort of thing. It puts pressure. 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:39.080 I think we've argued under the Biden administration that we 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:42.279 lost to terrence as a tool, and to get to terrence, 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:44.440 you actually have to be aggressive periodically. You have to 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:46.160 put some fear. So that I think we are very 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:47.840 positive on. I think we're all trying to figure out 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:50.839 what exactly the endgame is with Russia and Ukraine. I 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:52.720 think that's an opportunity maybe for the President to come 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:55.680 out looking good. I think if Putin offers a really 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:58.000 bad deal and the President accepts it, and I think 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.640 that will cause US further divide, see more of this. 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:02.600 Any sort of piece deal, though, we really think was 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:05.240 always going to benefit Germany and Poland. Poland is going 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:07.160 to continue to be the big winner in this whole 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:10.719 realignment of Europe. So continue to be positive for stocks 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:12.600 whether or not there is a deal. Right now, we're 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:14.960 head of that direction. And I think a bad deal though, 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.800 would really push people away from the US again. 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.200 Unfortunately, how would up pet You see a situation where 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.320 US snquities could be in a band market down twenty 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.920 percent and German equities could stay this high of twenty percent. 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.840 Yeah, I think one you look at valuations, they're so 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.480 somewhat cheap. People are pulling their money back to their 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:33.920 own home base. They are doing spending, They're doing things 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.680 that are going to be clearly constructive for their businesses. 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:39.039 I think they do have some access capacity, right VW 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:40.840 is trying to figure out no one wants to buy 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:43.599 a VWEV supposedly, what do we do with that? Okay, 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.120 can we make military equipment? And I think that's going 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:48.800 to be interesting And normally that sort of spending would 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:51.799 fall heavily into the US. Right, Germany would be spending 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:54.559 a lot of their money on US equipment, US things. 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:57.280 They feel very like them to do that given the 0:06:57.320 --> 0:06:59.880 current term. That could change, But as long as that's going, 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:02.680 we're getting the separation, you get those valuations picking up. 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:02.960 There. 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:05.520 Does the great thing not concern you? Over in Europe? 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:05.960 Right now? 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:10.920 Overwhelmingly there is a huge consensus celebrating germany rearmic. Does 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:11.720 that not concern you? 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:14.400 In which way? 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:15.960 I don't think it's a bad thing for people to 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:18.560 have their own ability to defend themselves. What I do think, though, 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:20.160 is Trump's been pushing for this, you know, two and 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:22.880 a half three percent whatever spending required he wants. 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:25.000 But I think that was all done in the. 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:26.560 Way that well, we're still going to be the big 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:28.280 person in NATO, will still tell NATO. 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:28.480 What to do. 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.360 And I think this spending is now okay, we're actually 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:33.400 going to spend this, but maybe we don't need the 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:33.920 same US. 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:36.240 I just want to approach this logically because at the 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.400 one point earlier this year, we were confident that for 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.720 European equities it was a good story. If the United 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.320 States push for a quick peace agreement. Part of that 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:48.640 story's happened. But Germany rearming Europe spending on defense doesn't 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:51.680 screen they're pushing for a quick piece deal by the House. 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.640 They're pushing for something very different to what President Trump 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:55.160 is pushing for. 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:57.400 Well, I think this all comes down to what sort 0:07:57.440 --> 0:08:00.640 of deal is put in place, right. I think the 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.760 fear is that if and I'm probably on the European side, 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:05.200 I think most of our generals would be that if 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:06.960 you do not put some sort of protection in place. 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:10.000 This is just a temporary rearming for Putin to go 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:12.040 back in and take a bigger bite. And I think 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.400 that's the big disconnect right now is I think when 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:17.600 we were looking at this and we figured we'd get 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:19.280 some sort of peace, we did not think would be easy. 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:21.000 We do believe that Ukraine's going to have to give 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:23.560 up some land. We do think that they will get 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:25.680 a lot of money from this. The whole key is like, 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:28.320 whether it's security agreement, how do you stop Russia from 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:30.240 just rearming and coming back in. 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:32.560 And that's I think what Europe's preparing. 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.480 For the German rearment. Basically Europe trying to set de 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:36.600 terms with Russia. 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:38.280 Yes, I think that's even if they're. 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:40.359 Willing to have gas deals once again. 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:42.640 You know they will try and do both. I think 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:43.760 alsode again. 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:45.520 It's like this is going to be this mad panic 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:46.840 where everyone's trying to rearm them. 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:49.520 He doesn't add up. Something about it doesn't add up. 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.080 Well, none of this is added up when we look 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:53.800 at what the US was doing with Iran, right we 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.240 were allowing Ranian oil to go through Russia continues to 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:01.240 sell your oil into natural gas into Europe. Right, everyone 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.320 is so scared about energy, and that's a crazy thing. Right, 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:06.040 If you went back five years ago, everyone's about green energy, 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.679 green energy, green energy, and even the US every energy 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:10.360 self sufficient. 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:11.640 We realize all it takes. 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.280 Is one oil price shock to realize we are not 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:16.880 that energy and self sufficient. Inflation is scary. So I 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:18.600 do think I love the energy market. 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:19.839 Again. My strategy for the. 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:22.040 US where I do like the US is I'm continuing 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:25.679 to invest in anything that national production and for national 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:28.439 security's sake, so anything that has a security element. I 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:29.720 do think we are going to see more and more 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:30.280 production that. 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:31.160 I think things like. 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.800 Chips are very important, medical equipment, those things are actually 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:37.080 going to be really part of what gets driven by this. 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:39.959 You'll see some growth. That's where I'm headed. 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:42.719 I'd like to see more done though by actual legislation. 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:44.120 The executive order. 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:45.720 Thing, I think is not going to work particularly well. 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:47.840 If it takes four or five years to build a plant. 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:50.439 No one's sitting there saying, based on some executive orders 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:52.720 that may be turned over in four years or may 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:55.240 be turned over in two months, I'm not investing. 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:58.640 It's going to say a parish very barrassed US sequities 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:10.319 paid a chant that of account of Securi. Let's talk 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:13.160 about the April second date. Conversation we've had around this 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.280 tangle a few times now, is how misleading that date 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:17.880 might be. What actually happens on April scond, How long 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:19.960 before these tariffs would actually. 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:23.480 Hit in some ways, nobody knows. But what I'm expecting 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:26.080 at Raymond James is that we will get some announcements 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:29.680 that are immediate, but will also get some announcements that 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.920 set in place a series of new kind of investigations. 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:35.320 And what you hear with Jamison Greer trying to take 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:37.720 control of this is there's a real concern within the 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:41.240 Trump administration on some staff that if you were to 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:43.640 try to do all of this on April second and 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:47.200 use emergency powers, there's huge legal risk and it's going 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:48.040 to get struck down. 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:49.360 And so what can you do on. 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.840 April second that goes into effect immediately, that can be 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:54.560 held in the courts, And what can you do that 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:57.640 sets in motion maybe a worldwide Section three or one 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:01.719 investigation that can be defe in the courts, but ultimately 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:04.880 still have a very high teriff rate that goes on 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.640 basically every single piece of equipment and goods that come 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:11.199 into the United States. That's still a very high probability. 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:14.280 John so Howard Lutnet, the Commerce Sectory actually outlined that 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.360 to us as well. You could see some on April second, 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.400 and then some might be weeks or months down the line. 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:21.080 So if they go on April second, they're likely using IEPA. 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.000 What could we see them use IEPA for and say, actually, 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:26.320 this will hold up in court because there's national security concerns. 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.679 Yeah, so Amory, I would say there are some IEPA stuff, 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:32.600 and I think that the Mexico China on IEPA probably 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:36.000 holds up. If there are other national security items, they 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:40.400 could say semiconductors, you know, clear things within our supply chains. 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:42.480 But I would look back to the first Trump administration. 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.360 They had a Section two thirty two investigation on autos. 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.480 They could kick that in pretty immediately. They've already done 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:52.600 some investigations on semiconductors. Generally under the Biden administration. Use 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:57.360 that there was a investigation into France on digital service taxes. 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.640 They almost put in place a set of tariffs on 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:04.360 France back in twenty twenty. When Trump was in office, 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:06.840 they could reactivate that. And there was also an investigation 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:10.880 into currency manipulation in Vietnam, which could go into effect immediately. 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.880 So take things off the shelf you've already done that 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:17.560 are legally defensible and put that into effect on April second. 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:19.360 Seems like a pretty reasonable expectation. 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:23.200 Ambassador of Jamison Greer is very methodical. He flies under 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.280 the radar. He's a lawyer. Mark Shore had this to say, 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:27.800 if you had people in the first one, you had 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.160 people in the first Trump white House who fundamentally disagree 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:32.960 with trade policy. This time around, they don't disagree with 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:35.160 him on trade, they disagree with the implementation. 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:36.679 Do you view it like that? 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:40.640 Who's potentially holding Trump back from potentially his most aggressive 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:42.720 policy proposals on tariff? 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:44.520 So I think they have a team of rivals again, 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:47.960 I think it is Team Economy versus Team Tariff. Team 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:51.800 Economy is Scott Besson. I think the kind of overall 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:55.280 kind of team Tariff is Jamison Greer is Howard Lutnik 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.959 is kind of Peter Navarro pushing. 0:12:57.600 --> 0:12:59.360 For it as as much as possible. 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:02.080 And on team of Tariff right now is Donald Trump 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.360 and so and he and he alone gets to the 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:05.640 side exactly. 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:07.600 What happens there are two dueling articles I thought were 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:09.960 really interesting. New York Times had an article yesterday about 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:12.199 how Donald Trump is serious this time around plans to 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:13.880 put these tariffs on and how to call with some 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.120 of the auto manufacturers saying, guess what, guys, this is 0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:17.600 for real. You need to get used to it. Twenty 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:21.160 five percent tariffs. There was an article by Bloomberg talking 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.840 about all the people around him saying, hold on a second, 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.320 we need to understand what the corporate concerns are, and 0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:29.720 I actually try to mitigate this with pro growth policies, etc. 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.120 Do you have a sense of how much this White House, 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:35.560 and I mean everybody in the White House actually does 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.040 care about markets and what companies are saying. 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.480 Yeah, I think they care about markets, they care about 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:42.720 the economy. I think what I hear from them is 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.480 that this is a process that they have to do 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:48.800 the deregulation, get the tax cuts, do the tariffs, break 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:52.400 down non tariff barriers around the globe, and then you 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.640 get the positive market reaction. What I'm hearing this time 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.280 in Trump two point zero is wait for it, we 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:00.800 have to put this all in place. If I get 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.920 some pushback, is the process right now is too Chaotus. 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:05.319 Well, that's what I was going to ask. Is there 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.040 a process or is it a concept? Is it concepts 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:09.600 of a plan or is it actually a plan. 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:11.840 I think it's more concepts of a plan, and I 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.480 think that there is a lot of disagreement. Folks on 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.400 Team ECON are not okay in which the way in 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.640 which this is being put out. But Team Tariff felt 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.000 that they went too slow in Trump one point zero. 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:25.160 If you go back to Trump one point zero, it 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:28.320 was March twenty twenty before they signed the Phase one 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.680 trade deal. We've already in the first couple of months 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:35.120 done more on tariffs than Trump did in four years 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:37.680 the first time around. They say their biggest mistake in 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.360 one point zero was taking too long, so they almost 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:40.720 don't care. 0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:42.400 I just want to fit in this final question some 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:44.640 breaking news. About five minutes ago, we know this call 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.920 was going to take place lightster on this morning at 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.480 nine Eastern time, President Putin demanding a suspension of a 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.840 weapon deliveries to Ukraine during a ceasefire that could come 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.280 up on the coal we expected to lates on this morning. 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.160 Between the two leaders, what do you think the outcome 0:14:58.320 --> 0:14:59.320 of all of that's going to be. 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.560 I think that's a realistic goal of this. However, I 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.840 do know that Donald Trump likes to have any phone 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:09.960 call come with a bold announcement, so I would expect 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:13.360 him to talk up the opportunity of a cease fire. 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.320 But Putin is doing a good job of. 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.440 Trying to reset the goalpost, because Donald Trump always resets 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.200 the goalpost, and a lot of world leaders know if 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:23.960 you can get him one on one, he usually agrees 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.040 to more than what staff would agree to. 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:28.000 That's the question with God this morning. I guess we 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.000 got into the phone call. Will we get a one 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.680 on one mating in person? Off the back of this, my. 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.880 Reporting weeks ago was that Trump and the Trump administration 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.040 wanted a meeting with Putin and Saudi Arabia by the 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:40.880 end of February. Well, guess what where in March It's Ramadan, 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.880 then there's need Potentially I would say you could see one. 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:46.120 If this phone call goes well in the. 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:48.760 Next month, it's going to see you away. I appreciate it, 0:15:48.760 --> 0:16:01.080 Thank you ed most. If Raymond James, let's send to 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:03.720 another Mac seven nine, let's talk about in video. Shares 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:05.720 slightly lower in the pre market ahead of CEO of 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:08.840 Jensen Wyang's keynote speech at the company's develop A conference. 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.360 We're down by zero point five percent per Pharowgho of 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:13.960 New Street has a by writing on the stock with 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.800 a two hundred dollars price target Perre joined just now 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.640 for more Perre. Welcome to the show. We'll get to 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:20.880 Tesla in just a moment. Let's start with Nvidia. What 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:22.560 do you expect from Jensen Wang later. 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:27.160 On, well, from Yensen specifically this morning, I think the 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.800 focus is going to be as always on the product proadmap. 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.480 You know, while other chips coming through there has been 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:37.720 like a fairly high amount of fleaks, so we have 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.840 good visibility. There is a black Well three hundred that 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:43.640 is going to start shipping towards the end of this year, 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.360 where like the black Well two hundred is shipping now, 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:52.360 so you have this shrinking you know, time between between 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:56.040 product and the next generation Rubin products. And as always, 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:59.520 what Jensen is going to do is going to showcase 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:03.840 on this giant screen in front of like fifteen thousand people, 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:07.919 like twenty five thousand people even probably this year. The 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:11.560 scale of the data centers these chips are going to 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:14.760 are going into power. You remember last year if he 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.480