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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and then Rouno with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: You're on Monday edition of Balance of Power as we

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Speaker 2: wait for not only this market to close, but potentially

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Speaker 2: an announcement on a running mate later today into tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: Kayley.

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Speaker 2: Of course, it comes after a weekend that we saw

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump on the campaign trail in Atlanta and he's

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Speaker 2: blaming Kamala Harris for this stock drop today. You pointed

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Speaker 2: this out to us when you put it on truth Social.

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Speaker 2: You can't play games with markets. Kamala crash, he's.

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Speaker 4: Calling it, yeah, And I'm seeing a lot of Kamala

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Speaker 4: crash circling in certain circles on Is that friendly today?

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Speaker 4: At least trying to make it so. But there is

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Speaker 4: the point of consideration here. I've seen it show up

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Speaker 4: in a number of strategist notes as well that noted

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Speaker 4: that there was a relationship between the way we saw

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Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred performing and the odds

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Speaker 4: of a Trump victory in November, and how much could

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Speaker 4: we attribute what we're seeing today to the fact that

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Speaker 4: there's at least been a recalibration in the race now

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Speaker 4: that Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 3: Is the absolutely comedy.

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Speaker 2: They were talking about a Harris trade last week with

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Speaker 2: solar stocks and some other things moving. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if that's real either, But Christopher Smart has thoughts on this.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad to say he's back with us, the managing partner.

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Speaker 2: It's our Browth Group, special assistant former special Assistant to

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Speaker 2: the President for International economics during the Obama administration. Christopher,

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Speaker 2: it's good to see you and thanks for joining here.

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Speaker 2: How do you see that idea the unwind of the

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Speaker 2: Trump trade and maybe more broadly, as Barry Riddolts was

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Speaker 2: mentioning earlier disappointment over the idea that corporate taxes may

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Speaker 2: not be caught here in a Kamala Harris campaign turned presidency,

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Speaker 2: is that.

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Speaker 3: Part of this picture on Wall Street?

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Speaker 5: I think if it's part of the picture, it's a

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Speaker 5: very small part of this picture.

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Speaker 6: If it would be the.

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Speaker 5: First time in a long time, maybe ever, that for

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Speaker 5: all of my respect for the Vice President of the

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Speaker 5: United States that any vice president of the United States

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Speaker 5: has had any impact on.

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Speaker 6: The equity market.

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Speaker 5: I think it's also the suddenness of this selloff really

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Speaker 5: tells you more I think about the market itself, the sentiment,

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Speaker 5: the positioning, than any one piece of data. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I think those of us who are trying to piece

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Speaker 5: together what has happened over the last few days, you

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Speaker 5: start adding up small things like the unemployment report, Warren

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Speaker 5: Buffett selling down his equity stake, the yen trade, the

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Speaker 5: carry trade out of Japan unwinding. All of those things

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Speaker 5: kind of add up to this people looking at their

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Speaker 5: portfolios and saying, gosh, I overweight these very risky stocks.

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Speaker 5: The valuations aren't so great, and everybody starts to run

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Speaker 5: for safety. So I think it's more combination of equity

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Speaker 5: market factors than anything even in the macro data, let

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Speaker 5: alone the politics.

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Speaker 4: Well, if we zero in on the data, though, if

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Speaker 4: you look at the weak data we got in terms

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Speaker 4: of ism manufacturing, then of course the softer jobs report

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Speaker 4: we got Friday, does anything within that. Christopher suggest to

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Speaker 4: you that regardless of whether or not the FED decides

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Speaker 4: to move inter meeting, as some in the market are

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Speaker 4: betting on today or perhaps move in September in the

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Speaker 4: expected twenty five basis point amount, that the FED already

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Speaker 4: will have gone too late, that something will have already

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Speaker 4: broken by the time we get to that meeting.

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Speaker 5: Well, you've seen it in all the commentary in the

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Speaker 5: last forty eight hours.

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Speaker 6: Seriously, I don't think I think it's a.

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Speaker 5: Lot of over reaction to a FED that has been

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Speaker 5: very very methodical about its approach, has been fairly transparent

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Speaker 5: about it. I think the calls for an inter meeting

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Speaker 5: cut right now would freak out the market even more

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Speaker 5: than it is right now. And I think we'll probably

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Speaker 5: see you know, maybe if the data continues to come

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Speaker 5: in week, particularly on the employment side, between now and

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Speaker 5: the end of August, we might see fifty instead of

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Speaker 5: twenty five in September. But I'm not sure you're going

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Speaker 5: to see the FED reacting to this market dynamic right now.

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Speaker 5: And as you were just saying a few minutes ago,

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Speaker 5: you know, we're more likely than not to see some

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Speaker 5: people start coming in on the buy side now that

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Speaker 5: you know you can buy in Nvidia at a much

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Speaker 5: at a welcome discount to what you were buying it

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Speaker 5: for a few weeks.

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Speaker 3: Ago, fair enough could get better. I guess too.

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Speaker 2: As we go, Christopher, I'm compelled by this whole narrative

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Speaker 2: that J. Powell has screwed up again. He was late

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Speaker 2: to start, and he's going to be late to finish,

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Speaker 2: when he might be sitting back smirking right now thinking

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Speaker 2: that this is exactly this was the point that he

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Speaker 2: wanted the market to capitulate and he can now move

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Speaker 2: forward with cutting.

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Speaker 5: It's it's the poor guy. He's either a dope or

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Speaker 5: an evil mastermind right.

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Speaker 7: More.

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Speaker 5: You know, the truth of the matter is he's a

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Speaker 5: really bright guy who's trying to make sense of some

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Speaker 5: very complicated data at a very tricky time in our

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Speaker 5: nation's history, right before a very polarized election. I think,

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Speaker 5: you know, I think the one thing we do know

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Speaker 5: about him and the.

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Speaker 6: Rest of the members of the FOMC.

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Speaker 5: Is they're not going to jump and react to a

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Speaker 5: few days of trading in the equity market. I think

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Speaker 5: they will pay extra attention to the labor data that's

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Speaker 5: coming in because that's what the market is signaling. I mean,

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Speaker 5: are we wrong about the soft lending? Is there more

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Speaker 5: weakness there than we think?

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Speaker 6: Is that unemployment.

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Speaker 5: Uptick because more people are coming out looking for work,

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Speaker 5: or is it because the hiring is cooling down. The

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Speaker 5: data still seems to show that balance sheets are strong,

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Speaker 5: consumer demand is still good. Earnings are weaker, but they

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Speaker 5: were supposed to be weaker. Remember, they were cooling down

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Speaker 5: the economy.

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Speaker 6: That's what he was trying to do.

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Speaker 5: So I guess, Joe, to your point, it does feel

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Speaker 5: to me like he's more likely sitting back and saying

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Speaker 5: this is what I was hoping would happen, rather than

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Speaker 5: you know, panicking.

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Speaker 4: Well, as you allude to the question of whether or

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Speaker 4: not the soft landing ultimately is going to be realized,

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Speaker 4: we did see Goldman, Sachs and jan Hatzius over there

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Speaker 4: raising their recession odds in the next year to it. Still,

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Speaker 4: I guess you could say relatively low twenty five percent,

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Speaker 4: So we're talking one and a quarter chance here. That's

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Speaker 4: up from fifteen percent. Where would you put the odds

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Speaker 4: right now?

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Speaker 5: Christopher, I'm sorry, stop the presses. We've gone from fifteen

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Speaker 5: to twenty five percent.

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Speaker 4: And they're still higher.

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Speaker 5: John is an extraordinarily talented economist and market strategist, so

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Speaker 5: I'm pulling his leg a little bit here, But yes,

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Speaker 5: of course they're higher. They're supposed to be higher. The

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Speaker 5: economy was supposed to be slowing down, the unemployment rate

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Speaker 5: is supposed to be ticking up. The prices, as you recall,

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Speaker 5: which is what we were all focus of the last year,

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Speaker 5: are coming down.

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Speaker 6: And that's the good news. You know.

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Speaker 5: Again, I go back to the market reaction that is

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Speaker 5: causing so much uncertainty right now, and I think we

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Speaker 5: all have to come back and re examine our fundamental

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Speaker 5: approach and our assumptions here. You know, what did we

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Speaker 5: get wrong? What is it we're missing? But the market

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Speaker 5: dynamic here again, I think, tells you much more about

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Speaker 5: the way people are positioned, the way that that risk

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Speaker 5: on trade. People have sort of gotten way out, if

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Speaker 5: I can use an unseasonal metaphor, way out over their skis,

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Speaker 5: and a few worrying data points have sort of triggered

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Speaker 5: this rush to safety. So I think I would expect

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Speaker 5: things not to bounce back suddenly from here. We might

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Speaker 5: get a few more weeks days of chopping markets, but

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Speaker 5: I don't think it's my base case or many people's

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Speaker 5: base case, that.

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Speaker 6: We're now suddenly heading into our recession. Next year. But

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Speaker 6: you know, we'll be watching the data later this week.

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Speaker 5: There there's ice data, there's another jobs for the weekly

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Speaker 5: jobs report, and that'll that'll have a lot to do

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Speaker 5: with that'll that'll say a lot about where this market

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Speaker 5: is headed in the near term.

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Speaker 3: Really interesting.

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Speaker 2: So you talk to Christopher Smart for five or ten minutes.

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Speaker 2: You start wondering if maybe it's time to start buying.

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Speaker 2: Maybe this is irrational, Christopher, what would this market look

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Speaker 2: like with a rate cut under its belt? Go ahead

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Speaker 2: and correct me if you want.

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Speaker 6: Well, I don't want to say you should buy today.

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Speaker 5: I'm just saying things are still attractive and you shouldn't

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Speaker 5: be selling today.

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Speaker 6: Probably is what I would say. I think.

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Speaker 5: You know, again, we're sort of looking at you know,

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Speaker 5: maybe three maybe four twenty five basis point cuts between

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Speaker 5: September and January.

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Speaker 6: First you start looking into next year, and you.

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Speaker 5: Know, as long as the the hiring data, the corporate

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Speaker 5: the corporate balance sheets remain strong, credit markets still look

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Speaker 5: relatively healthy, and you don't see any kind of I mean,

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Speaker 5: we're all sort of on the lookout still for you know,

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Speaker 5: those hidden accidents. Is it another regional bank, is it

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Speaker 5: an emerging market? Is it's some part of the financial

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Speaker 5: system that we can't see that is suddenly going to

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Speaker 5: break under the stress of high interest rates. Those are

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Speaker 5: all things everybody needs to keep an eye out for.

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Speaker 5: But at least right now, I think it's hard to

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Speaker 5: make the case that the data is saying we are

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Speaker 5: headed for a recession. So I guess you know my

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Speaker 5: longer my my very tentative advice would be, this is

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Speaker 5: not a time to sell, and over the next few

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Speaker 5: months you'll be wanting to look to add.

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Speaker 4: Christopher. Finally, we've spent a lot of time talking about

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Speaker 4: the equity market today, it is worth noting in the

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Speaker 4: bond market, however, briefly we did see a uninversion, a

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Speaker 4: disinversion of the two tens curve. Is that a real

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Speaker 4: signal to you, It's.

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Speaker 5: A signal it's worth looking at. I think it's got

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Speaker 5: to be uninverted for it's got to be, you know,

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Speaker 5: steepening over a period of time to really pay more

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Speaker 5: attention to it.

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Speaker 6: But I think it's certainly something we need to watch.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the dynamics of the twos and the tens

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Speaker 5: are very different in terms of flows, different auctions, so

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Speaker 5: I think it's something we need to watch over the

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Speaker 5: longer term.

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Speaker 6: But it's not something any single day. It's going to

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Speaker 6: make a difference.

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Speaker 4: Fair enough, We're inverted by about eleven basis points as

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Speaker 4: we speak. Christopher, great to have you on this Monday

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Speaker 4: of Monday's Christopher Smurt, of course, formerly of the Obama administration,

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Speaker 4: now at our growth group.

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Speaker 2: Live coverage from Washington here standing by for an announcement

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Speaker 2: from the Kamala Harris campaign on a running mate. Reuters

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Speaker 2: reporting earlier in the hour here that it's down to two.

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Speaker 2: It's either Governor's Waltz or Shapiro. Will find out as

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Speaker 2: soon as tonight, or more likely according to some early

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Speaker 2: tomorrow morning, when a video.

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Speaker 3: Announcement is made. That's a exactly the way Kaylee lines.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden rolled out his selection of Kamala Harris, which

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Speaker 2: looked a lot like the Obama endorsement.

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Speaker 3: He was actually calling her on the phone. You couldn't

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Speaker 3: see her.

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Speaker 2: You just heard her voice saying she's ready to get

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Speaker 2: to work, so we might get something like that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, of course that was in the twenty twenty cycle

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Speaker 4: when we were in the middle of a pandemic and

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Speaker 4: it was a very different campaign. Meantime, here in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty four, after she makes this announcement, she is expected

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Speaker 4: to appear alongside this person at a massive rally in Philadelphia.

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Speaker 4: I've seen reports today, Joe that they're expecting more than

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Speaker 4: ten thousand people to be there tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they've got big travel plans, going to be a

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Speaker 2: different city over the course of the week, and jd

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Speaker 2: Vance will be following, which is going to be fun

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Speaker 2: to watch. She's got like the OPO tour here, counter

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Speaker 2: prog counterprogramming each of these events following Kamala Harris around

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Speaker 2: the country.

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Speaker 3: So it's on.

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Speaker 4: As they say, yeah, still got to make the pick first,

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Speaker 4: so to weigh in with their thoughts on this pick

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Speaker 4: before it is finally made. Our signature of political panel

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Speaker 4: Rick Davis and Genie Shane and they know are with us,

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Speaker 4: both Bloomberg Politics contributors of course, so Rick, assuming that

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Speaker 4: Reuter's is correct, and this really is between governor's walls

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Speaker 4: and Shapiro. Shapiro, on the one hand, may have a

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Speaker 4: problem with some progressives when it comes to a stance

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Speaker 4: on Israel and Gaza, his handling of campus protests, for example,

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Speaker 4: where while the governor of Minnesota may be too progressive

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Speaker 4: for some, who is least likely to alienate voters here?

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Speaker 8: Rick, Well, I think you go to the biggest voter pool.

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Speaker 8: You've got right, Everything is a percentage. Is it easier

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Speaker 8: for Josh Shapiro to win Pennsylvania or Waltz to win Wisconsin?

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Speaker 8: And what is the relevant amount of electoral votes that

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Speaker 8: go with each And I think in both those cases

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Speaker 8: advantage Shapiro. Look, I mean the reality is the most

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Speaker 8: important meeting that took place on Sunday was with Eric Holder,

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Speaker 8: who was carrying over the briefs to the Vice president

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Speaker 8: on the vetting. And what we don't know is what's

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Speaker 8: in the vetted material. Any bad news in that vetting

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Speaker 8: material could have much bigger impact on the candidacies of

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Speaker 8: these men than anything they bring to the table politically.

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Speaker 2: Do you like this rollout idea genie the video hits

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Speaker 2: Tuesday morning, they hit the road Philadelphia, carry on throughout

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Speaker 2: the week. And if you do like that idea, wouldn't

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Speaker 2: it seem weird to start this in Philadelphia with the

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Speaker 2: governor of Wisconsin.

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Speaker 7: The weird label does not fit this team. Joe Matthew that, Okay.

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Speaker 3: I used the wrong word.

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Speaker 7: I'm kidding, you know, I do think it makes sense.

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Speaker 7: You know, we can't say it's an indication that Shapiro

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Speaker 7: has the upper hand and will be the nominee, of course,

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Speaker 7: because as Rick said, we don't know what is in

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Speaker 7: those vetting materials. But I do think regardless of who

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Speaker 7: she chooses, whether it's Waltz, whether it's Shapiro, both of

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Speaker 7: those governors and then also everybody else who's been on

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Speaker 7: this short list are going to come out strongly and

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Speaker 7: continue to support Kamala Harris. They've all made that clear.

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Speaker 7: So I think it is going to be a good

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Speaker 7: role out for them. It's designed to show the vigor,

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Speaker 7: quite frankly, to show the differential and energy and age

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Speaker 7: between a Kamala Harris and a Donald Trump. That had

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Speaker 7: always been advantage Trump when Joe Biden was at the

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Speaker 7: top of the ticket. It's now advantaged Kamala Harris. She

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Speaker 7: is going to be visiting all of these swing states

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Speaker 7: in a very brief period of time, and that is

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Speaker 7: a far cry from what Donald Trump has done. And

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Speaker 7: I'm listening to Kayleie talk about that crowd size they're expecting,

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Speaker 7: and Donald Trump is not going to be happy to

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Speaker 7: hear that as for this weekend.

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Speaker 6: He doesn't like those.

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Speaker 7: Kinds of growth Kamala Harris, so he's going to be

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Speaker 7: hoping that that's not the case in the tens of thousands.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he'd probably like his crowd to be even bigger

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Speaker 4: than that when we see him in Montana later this week. Jeanie,

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Speaker 4: I also want to point out some of the polling

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Speaker 4: that we've gotten over the weekend ahead of this VP pick,

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Speaker 4: including the latest CBS which finds the vice president with

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Speaker 4: a one point edge nationally exactly tied with Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: in the battleground states. But something else that caught my

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Speaker 4: attention was that seventy four percent of black registered voters

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Speaker 4: in this poll say they now will definitely vote. That

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Speaker 4: is up sixteen points from the last poll in July

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Speaker 4: when Joe Biden was still in the race. Genie how

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Speaker 4: important is just that notion of higher turnout.

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Speaker 7: It's very important. It's an indication of enthusiasm. We saw

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Speaker 7: that the increase in terms of people who said they're

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Speaker 7: going to go out and vote amongst likely black voters

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Speaker 7: up tremendously from where it was under Joe Biden. In

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Speaker 7: terms of support, she isn't quite where Joe Biden was

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Speaker 7: in twenty twenty, but she is definitely moving in the

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Speaker 7: right direction. And I think unless she makes a big

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Speaker 7: mistake with the choice, that those numbers will keep moving

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Speaker 7: off as she goes into the Democratic Convention and then beyond.

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Speaker 7: So the mental is certainly on her side, and I

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Speaker 7: think it just underscores how important this choice of a

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Speaker 7: VP is. If she was to make a misstep something

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Speaker 7: very shocking somebody who quite frankly did what jd Vance

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Speaker 7: is doing to a certain extent to Donald Trump, those

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Speaker 7: numbers may stagnate. But it provided she makes a strong

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Speaker 7: choice between one of these two, she's going to be

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Speaker 7: in a good position to carry this momentum forward. So

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Speaker 7: she is feeling very good about where she is. She

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Speaker 7: just can't make any mistakes.

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Speaker 2: Now, Rick, I want you to bring us inside a

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Speaker 2: campaign that is trying to plan a surprise here, and

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Speaker 2: they're planning it ahead of a five day, seven city tour,

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Speaker 2: so presumably, while reports suggest it's unclear if Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: has made up her mind, she probably has and I'm

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Speaker 2: guessing a phone call has been made. It's one thirty

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Speaker 2: pm on the East coast right now. They would need

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Speaker 2: to know, I'm guessing twenty four hours in advance of

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Speaker 2: their first event together. But of course you had to

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Speaker 2: stage a super secret transfer of a certain running mate

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Speaker 2: from Alaska to get to the Twin Cities at a convention.

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Speaker 2: To what lengths are they going to right now to

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Speaker 2: keep this quiet?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, the biggest problem they've got is leaking.

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Speaker 8: You know, campaigns aren't known for their tight seals, and

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Speaker 8: so that means and you know, the only way you

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Speaker 8: can really avoid it is having fewer and fewer people

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Speaker 8: around you who actually know what the answer to the

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Speaker 8: question is who's going to get the baton? And so

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Speaker 8: that creates a lot of frustration. But there are two

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Speaker 8: parallel tracks. There's one of the selection process, and we've

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Speaker 8: talked a little bit about what's been happening there, but

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Speaker 8: the campaigns ramping up they're going to have an entire

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Speaker 8: team assembled who will take that vice presidential nominee, whoever

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Speaker 8: it is, and start running around the country with them

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Speaker 8: advanced people, schedulers, speech writers. There's a speech being written

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Speaker 8: as we speak for the Democratic Convention for a speaker

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Speaker 8: who nobody knows who it's going to be yet. And

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Speaker 8: so it's the most bizarre aspect of a presidential campaign,

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Speaker 8: I think, which is this whole initiative around somebody who

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Speaker 8: you don't know yet is being put together and they

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Speaker 8: guess get dropped in at some point tomorrow.

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Speaker 4: Well, and of course this doesn't happen in a vacuum either.

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Speaker 4: Certainly it's happening in the context of those watching and

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Speaker 4: listening here on Bloomberg with the knowledge that there's a

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Speaker 4: pretty brutal sell off happening in financial markets. And that's

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Speaker 4: something that isn't unique to today. You could look back

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Speaker 4: to last week as well. The economic data genie would

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Speaker 4: suggest that things are softening in a more material way.

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Speaker 4: How does this kind of split screen risk playing out

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Speaker 4: for Kamala Harris if she wants this excitement around her

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Speaker 4: VP pick, but on the other hand, sentiment around financial

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Speaker 4: markets in the economy may be souring as we speak.

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Speaker 7: Absolutely, and you look at the U GO of CBS poll,

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Speaker 7: that is her biggest weakness. People still feel that they

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Speaker 7: would be much better off under Donald Trump in terms

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Speaker 7: of their personal wealth and the economy, and he, of

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Speaker 7: course is playing off on that. I'm looking at truth

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Speaker 7: social right now. He has repeatedly said Kamala crash versus

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Speaker 7: what is it Trump cash? I guess it is in

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Speaker 7: my notes, and he has said that over I have

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Speaker 7: to keep notes on these things. He has said that

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Speaker 7: over and over and over again, which I think is

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Speaker 7: an indication as to how strongly the campaign feels his

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Speaker 7: campaign and knows that this is an enormous weakness for her.

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Speaker 7: So you know, do I think it's had a huge

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Speaker 7: impact on her at this moment.

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Speaker 5: No.

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Speaker 7: You just had a great interview with Christopher Smart where

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Speaker 7: he said vice presidents historically don't cause markets to go down.

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Speaker 7: That's true, But if this remains an issue throughout the campaign,

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Speaker 7: it's her big achilles heel. They've got to get their

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Speaker 7: head around this, and she's got to be able to

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Speaker 7: respond to how she'd do things differently, otherwise this will

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Speaker 7: continue to drag her poll numbers down or at least

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Speaker 7: keep her even with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Of course, it's not just the stock market itself. It's

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Speaker 2: what the stock market is reflecting here, and if that

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Speaker 2: happens to be a recession, we're dealing with a much

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Speaker 2: greater problem potentially for the incumbent party. Genie Shanzeo, Rick Davis,

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Speaker 2: great conversation, great panel, as always Bloomberg Politics contributors.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,919
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,440
Speaker 1: Prounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: It's another tough one here, as Donald Trump blames the

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Speaker 2: selloff on politics and specifically the idea of Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: winning the election on truth social of course, as a

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Speaker 2: massive market downturn, Kamala is even worse than Crooked Joe,

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Speaker 2: he writes. Markets will never accept the radical left lunatic

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Speaker 2: that destroyed San Francisco in California as a whole. Well,

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Speaker 2: next move. This is the former president of the United States.

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Speaker 2: All caps, the Great Depression of twenty twenty four. Exclamation

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Speaker 2: point you can't play games with the markets, he says,

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Speaker 2: Kamala crash. Of course, if you listen to and watch Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: if you have a terminal in front of you, you

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Speaker 2: know there's a lot more going on here. And in

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Speaker 2: times like these we seek wisdom from voices of experience.

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Speaker 2: Of course, no more helpful at this time than the

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Speaker 2: great Barry Riddlets. You know him as the host of

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Speaker 2: Masters and in business here on Bloomberg, but he's also

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Speaker 2: chairman and CEO of Riddlets Wealth Management, and Barry really

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Speaker 2: glad that you could join today. Thank you for being

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Speaker 2: with us here in the political morass. I don't mean

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Speaker 2: to pull you into Trump versus Harris, but can you

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Speaker 2: acknowledge that a change in the polls here is not

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Speaker 2: causing a change in the markets.

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Speaker 3: So let me get to that.

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Speaker 9: But before I zoom in on that, let's start at

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Speaker 9: thirty thousand feet. You know, we all tend to engage

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Speaker 9: in this narrative fallacy that when there's a major dislocation

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Speaker 9: in the market, we go running around looking for what

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Speaker 9: caused this, And so far this morning I've read, well,

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Speaker 9: it was buffets and selling apple. Wait, no, it was

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Speaker 9: the craziness in Japan, the worst market sell off since

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Speaker 9: eighty seven. Oh wait, maybe it's not that. Maybe it's

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Speaker 9: the unwind of the Trump trade. Oh wait, maybe it's

440
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 9: the Psalm rule and we have a recession. And it's never, never,

441
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 9: never just one thing. It's always a penalope of different

442
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 9: factors that come together. Hey, I rarely am on the

443
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 9: same side of the trade as Donald Trump, but you

444
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 9: could make a feasible argument that part of the rally

445
00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 9: was an anticipation of Wait, we're gonna get another trillion

446
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 9: our tax cut. Wait he's going to lower We already

447
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 9: took the corporate tax rate from thirty five to thirty

448
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 9: to twenty one. Is he really going to go to

449
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,959
Speaker 9: fifteen percent? Arguably, when it was Trump versus Biden and

450
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 9: it looked like a landslide, some of the rally you

451
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 9: can certainly attribute to, Hey, free money fifteen percent, you know,

452
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 9: whether it's free money on the monetary side or free

453
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 9: money on the fiscal side. And tax cuts are certainly

454
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 9: fiscal stimulus. Sure some of that could be that, but

455
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 9: it's never just that. If I wanted to pick a

456
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 9: single factor, and I hate picking the single factor, but

457
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,439
Speaker 9: to me, it's the fact that the FED is a

458
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 9: year behind the curve. And I've been jumping up and

459
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 9: down and screaming this for twelve months. And you know,

460
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 9: the only thing worse than being wrong is being right.

461
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 9: It of all the many things that are out there,

462
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 9: and it's never just one. It looks like, oh, that

463
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,479
Speaker 9: long and variable lag that the FED has been talking about,

464
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 9: well it wasn't quite as long, and it was a

465
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 9: little less variable than I think we were expecting.

466
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 2: It was just struck by the speed with which this

467
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 2: whole narrative has turned. Barry, do you think we get

468
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 2: an intermeeting cut and wo? Would that turn the market

469
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: around if investor's got the sense that the FED cared

470
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 2: more than they do now, you.

471
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 9: Know, Hemingway comes to minds, you know, gradually, then suddenly

472
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 9: the narrative with the FED went from well maybe we'll

473
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 9: see something in September. All right, we're looking like a

474
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 9: quarter point in September. Hey, wait, it's a half a

475
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 9: point in September. No, it's Jackson hole in August. Right, People,

476
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 9: especially FED chairmen, are loath to admit error. And what

477
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 9: Jerome pal would have to say is, hey, you know,

478
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 9: this economy is a little more difficult to read and

479
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 9: a little more mysterious in our post pandemic era. And

480
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 9: maybe I should have been in May or June or July,

481
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 9: just as a little bit of you know, like all

482
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:10,239
Speaker 9: all stock traders overstay their welcome in a bubble, I

483
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 9: think the FED believed their own press releases, in their

484
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 9: own pr and said, we got this, We got a

485
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 9: soft landing, despite lots and lots of accumulated data that hey,

486
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 9: this is starting to build up. It when it finally snaps,

487
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 9: it's that gradually. Then all at once, the pressures build,

488
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,439
Speaker 9: the tectonic plates move back and forth, and the friction

489
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 9: holds it in place for as long as it can,

490
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 9: and then boom you have an earthquake. And that's pretty

491
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 9: much what's going on right here.

492
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 2: Where is J Powell sitting back right now, cracking that beer, saying,

493
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: you know what, I finally got them to capitulate. Sure,

494
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: go start lining up the cuts. But this was the

495
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 2: hard part.

496
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 6: You know.

497
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 9: There's something to be said for that. Although you know,

498
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 9: generally speaking Bedchair generally, but Powell in particular, they don't

499
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 9: like these sudden spikes when the vix goes from seventeen

500
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 9: to thirty three. When it doubles overnight, they're not happy

501
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 9: about that. That's very disruptive. The whole concept of a

502
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 9: soft landing is, hey, you know, the engines cut out,

503
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 9: but we're gonna bring the plane in without any injury

504
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 9: and put it right down. When suddenly a wing falls off, Hey,

505
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 9: it gets everybody's attention. I think it would take a

506
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 9: lot for them to do that August Jackson Hole cut,

507
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 9: but a couple of more days like this. It reminds

508
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 9: me of that week in October nine, I'm sorry, October eight,

509
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 9: when Congress refused to do anything about the financial crisis.

510
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 9: On Monday they were like, no, the markets will figure

511
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 9: it out, and then fifteen percent later that Friday they're like,

512
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 9: here's a trillion dollars. What else do you need?

513
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 10: So if this stabilizes over here, we're probably looking at September.

514
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 10: If this gets appreciably worse, then maybe you know we're

515
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 10: back on in August.

516
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 9: You never can tell. It really depends on I love

517
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 9: Soros's concept of reflexivity. How do each of these little

518
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 9: waves when you throw the pebble in the lake, how

519
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 9: do each of these these little ripples affect all the

520
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 9: other They kind of combine in unexpected ways, and that's

521
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 9: how you end up with a day like today where

522
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 9: it wasn't any one thing, but just the confluence of

523
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 9: all these things.

524
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 2: Spending time with Barry riddlets here in the teeth of

525
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 2: the cellof I wonder your view on the markets, more

526
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 2: specifically here Berry and the technical levels that you're watching

527
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: when it's going to be irresistible, right, We're going to

528
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 2: have people jumping back into this AI trade at some point,

529
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 2: are trying to gain the system, trying to figure out

530
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 2: we're copper bottoms. But we're also going into a seasonally

531
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 2: difficult period. So what does the second half look like

532
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 2: to you?

533
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 9: You know, when anytime we have a plus fourteen percent,

534
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 9: which is a good year in the first two quarters,

535
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 9: you know, the temptation is to tap out and take

536
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 9: the rest of the year off. Sure, And while the

537
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 9: fascinating thing about this moment in time and where we

538
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 9: are is, on the one hand, we can clearly see

539
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 9: signs of stress building up bottom half of the consumer

540
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 9: strata is you know, the lower fifty percent of spenders

541
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 9: are certainly feeling stress from higher rates, from increased credit

542
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 9: card debt. People who want to buy residential real estate

543
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 9: is still dealing with the shortfall of inventory, and that's

544
00:28:56,040 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 9: kept prices very high. We're watching the slow, really the

545
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 9: slow motion train wreck of commercial real estate, which is

546
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 9: going to unfold over not days or months, but years

547
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 9: and decades because of those ten and twenty year leases.

548
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 9: And so that's the downside. And yet up until this

549
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 9: past month, hiring has been robust, there have been wage gains,

550
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 9: there's been consumer spending. Like generally speaking, the economy has

551
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 9: been pretty pretty robust and kind of suggests that, hey,

552
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 9: you know, this could be a little bit of a headache,

553
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 9: but this isn't what is going to send us into

554
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 9: a recession. So really, what where we are is, if

555
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 9: nothing untoward happens, this economy can keep growing. What are

556
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 9: we going to see a plus thirteen percent corporate profits

557
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 9: over the next four quarters. That's really substantial, assuming things

558
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 9: don't take a down leg. And I hate the on

559
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 9: the one hand. On the other hand, but we're really

560
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 9: in that middle zone where what the Fed does, how

561
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 9: the psychology unwinds Where I mentioned some of this could

562
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 9: be the unwind of a Trump trade, could be an

563
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 9: unwind of fifteen percent corporate tax rate. On the other hand,

564
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 9: you know when you want to have a forward looking

565
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 9: political economy. Torsten Slack of Apollo just put something out

566
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 9: today about the US industrial renaissance. We've seen a giant

567
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 9: uptick in that, so I'm kind of on the fence.

568
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 9: We're not in a recession yet, but the warning signs

569
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 9: are there that if we don't do something smart, we

570
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 9: could be in a recession in three to nine months

571
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 9: from now.

572
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: Just answered my last question for me too.

573
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could join us today, Barry. I

574
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: know we're talking about pretty tough stuff here, but somehow

575
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 2: I always feel better after I talk to Berry Riddlets.

576
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,239
Speaker 2: Find his podcast Masters in Business, which you can hear

577
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio on the weekends too.

578
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 3: It's one of my favorites.

579
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 2: Chairman c Io Riddlets Wealth Management, Berry, thank you so

580
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 2: much for keeping a levelheader at least helping us do that.

581
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

582
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud

583
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

584
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

585
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 1: just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

586
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 4: There's going to be some important developments in that arena

587
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 4: in the next twenty four hours too, as we await

588
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 4: expected by tomorrow the vice presidential selection of Vice President

589
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris, who will be her running mate. According to Reuters,

590
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 4: it has narrowed down to two, the governor of Minnesota

591
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 4: and Tim Waltz, or the governor of Pennsylvania in Josh Shapiro.

592
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 4: And that's where we begin now with Lara Brown. She's

593
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 4: a political scientist and also author of Amateur Hour, Presidential

594
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 4: Character and the Question of Leadership. Welcome back to Balance

595
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 4: of Power here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Lara, As

596
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 4: we consider that it may be down to just two choices,

597
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 4: which one makes the most political sense to you?

598
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 11: Well, I would think that Governor Josh Shapiro does if

599
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 11: you're just looking at those two choices, largely because what

600
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 11: is important for the vice president to shore up are

601
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 11: essentially Republicans who don't feel they have a home within

602
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 11: the Republican Party. There are right leaning independents, and there

603
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 11: are Republicans who have decided that they are uncomfortable voting

604
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 11: for Trump and supporting a Trump Vance ticket, And so

605
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 11: that is really the play in terms of the voters

606
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 11: that Vice President Harris should want to attract because that

607
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 11: will help her the most in the battleground states.

608
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:47,719
Speaker 2: Well, you consider the importance Laura of Pennsylvania, and you

609
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 2: do wonder why we're spending so much time talking about this.

610
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: Isn't Josh Shapiro as well, considering the deep relationship that

611
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 2: he has with Barack Obama, as outlined in The New

612
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 2: York Times earlier today. Isn't this the slam dunk that

613
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 2: the campaign's looking for?

614
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 7: Sure?

615
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 11: I mean, I think most people have always seen him

616
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 11: as a strong favorite. You know, there are other options. Obviously,

617
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 11: Governor Andy Basher in Kentucky would not be a bad

618
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 11: choice because he fulfills some of the Union's desires, but

619
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 11: at the same time has been governing in a very

620
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 11: conservative state for years. So I do think there are

621
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 11: other options for her. But at the end of the day,

622
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 11: it's going to come down to who she is most

623
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 11: comfortable with and who she feels can be the most helpful.

624
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 11: And that doesn't necessarily mean taking Governor Shapiro out of

625
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 11: his state and taking him to other places. It may

626
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 11: mean leaving him in a state to help build that

627
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 11: coalition there.

628
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 4: Well, certainly on the other side, the vice presidential nominee

629
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 4: is not being left in his state of Ohio. J

630
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 4: d Vance is going to be on the trail essentially

631
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 4: following this swing state swing that the Democratic ticket will

632
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 4: be on. We, I guess will wait and see whether

633
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:12,959
Speaker 4: or not we're going to get a debate between jd

634
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 4: Vance and Shapiro or Waltz or whoever it may be.

635
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 4: We also don't know, Laura, if we're going to get

636
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 4: a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Of course,

637
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 4: Donald Trump over the weekend said that he's agreed to one,

638
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,479
Speaker 4: just a different one than Harris agreed to. He wants

639
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 4: to debate on Fox on September four, She wants to

640
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,280
Speaker 4: debate on ABC on September tenth. How do you ultimately

641
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 4: think this gets resolved is there's just not going to

642
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 4: be one.

643
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 11: Well, let's not forget that former President Trump.

644
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 6: Did back out of the ABC debate.

645
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 11: That was set. It was scheduled, his team agreed to it,

646
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 11: and really, at the end of the day, he doesn't

647
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 11: like the idea of now having to debate Harris instead

648
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 11: of Biden, and so he has decided to put forth

649
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 11: his own proposal. This is a more favorable proposal because

650
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 11: it's not only on Fox News, but it would be

651
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 11: with a live audience which are purportedly mostly Fox viewers. Therefore,

652
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 11: people who would be cheering him on. It is a

653
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 11: different proposal. And if he doesn't show up on September

654
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 11: tenth at the ABC debate, then ABC has said they

655
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 11: will make that airtime available to Harris anyway, So I think,

656
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 11: you know, we don't know how this is going to

657
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 11: play out, but if he doesn't show up for September tenth,

658
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 11: I think that is much more damaging to his campaign

659
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 11: than if she refuses his latest proposal to go on Fox.

660
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: Well, I have to ask you about the messaging from

661
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 2: the Trump campaign over the weekend. Donald Trump made his

662
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 2: way to Atlanta, in fact, spoke in the very same

663
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: room where Kamala Harris had a very large rally last week,

664
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 2: got a lot.

665
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 3: Of attention for it, and he used his time.

666
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 2: There's a lot of time was another stem winer from

667
00:35:58,200 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, but he used a lot of that time

668
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 2: to bash the Republican leader, the Republican governor of the

669
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: state of Georgia, which many would argue he needs to

670
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 2: win to be the president again.

671
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: Here's what he said.

672
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 12: Your Governor Kemp and Raffinsburgers are doing everything possible to

673
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 12: make twenty twenty four difficult for Republicans to win.

674
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 6: That what are they doing?

675
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 5: I don't know.

676
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 12: They got something in mind, you know they got a

677
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 12: little something in mind. Kemp is very bad for the

678
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 12: Republican Party.

679
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 6: He wouldn't do anything.

680
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,839
Speaker 2: Laura, what do you make of this this kind of talk,

681
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 2: knowing how popular Governor Kemp is in Georgia and what

682
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 2: is Donald Trump suggesting that they have going on.

683
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 11: I don't know what he's suggesting, and it's mystifying as

684
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 11: to why he would take apart one of his own

685
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 11: allies that he needs, who is also said that he

686
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 11: would vote for the ticket. So Kemp has not backed

687
00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 11: away from Trump and former President Trump have embraced him

688
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 11: in his state and really elevated the Republican unity. But

689
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:10,280
Speaker 11: instead he chose to create more divisiveness. And I think

690
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:14,439
Speaker 11: it's going to really sort of play poorly for him

691
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 11: in that state because Kemp is popular and certainly there

692
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 11: is nothing untoward going on with respect the election there.

693
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 4: Well, of course, we did get a response from Governor

694
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 4: Kemp on social media. He posted on x saying that

695
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 4: his focus is on winning this November, saving our country

696
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,479
Speaker 4: from Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Went on to say,

697
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 4: not engaging in petty personal insults, attacking fellow Republicans or

698
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 4: dwelling on the past on the petty personal insult point

699
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 4: that is coming from a Republican governor. Mind you, Laura,

700
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 4: we've talked a lot in the last week about personally

701
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 4: insulting Kamala Harris on the part of Donald Trump questioning

702
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 4: her racial identity for example. How quickly does the Trump

703
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 4: campaign need to get that discipline message on the issues

704
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 4: out there or risk alienating significant chunks of voters that

705
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 4: they thought they may be able to bring alongside this cycle.

706
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 11: Well, the problem is is that you can't really control

707
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 11: former President Trump. I think Republicans have known this for

708
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,720
Speaker 11: a long time. His message is what he wants to say,

709
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 11: and it is very difficult to corral him toward any

710
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 11: sort of policy conversation and the like. And when they did,

711
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 11: you know, the Project twenty twenty five has been nothing

712
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:32,759
Speaker 11: but sort of a disaster for Republicans, and yet that

713
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 11: was supposed to be their grand conservative you know, proposals

714
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 11: that they were going to put forward as being part

715
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 11: of Trump's new presidency, and Trump himself backed away from

716
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 11: it when you realized sort of how conservative and how

717
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 11: extreme some of them were. So, you know, really, at

718
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 11: the end of the day, former President Trump is running

719
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 11: a personal campaign. He is a candidate who believes in celebrity,

720
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 11: and he is somebody who believes in kind of his

721
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 11: own ability to deliver a state to his presidency. But

722
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 11: that has not been the case in the past, and

723
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 11: we'll have to see how it plays going forward.

724
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 2: Political scientist Lara Brown, the author of Amateur, Our Presidential

725
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 2: Character and the Question of Leadership. Laura, it's great to

726
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 2: see you, and we thank you for the insights today.

727
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

728
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and then

729
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 1: Rounoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

730
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

731
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:48,800
Speaker 2: With our eyes on the campaign trail and an announcement

732
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 2: that could come at any time between today and say

733
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 2: this time tomorrow from the Kamala Harris campaign. The reason

734
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 2: why we say that is because her first event with

735
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 2: her new running mate is set for tomorrow, Row afternoon.

736
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: So here we are knowing that she met over the

737
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 2: weekend with the three finalists at the Naval Observatory, that

738
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 2: is where the Vice president lives, and all the while

739
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was in Atlanta, spoke to the same room.

740
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, different people, but in the

741
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 2: same room that Kamala Harris held that big rally last

742
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 2: week that everybody made a big deal about. It was

743
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 2: another stem winder by the former president. Here's Donald Trump

744
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 2: in Atlanta.

745
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 12: Your Governor Kemp and Rafflinsberger are doing everything possible to

746
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 12: make twenty twenty four difficult for Republicans to win.

747
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 6: What are they doing?

748
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:33,399
Speaker 5: I don't know.

749
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 12: They got something in mind, you know, they got little

750
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 12: something in mind. Camp is very bad for the Republican Party.

751
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:41,800
Speaker 6: He wouldn't do anything.

752
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 3: What do they have in mind?

753
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: This attack on Governor Kemp, of course, very popular in Georgia,

754
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 2: was resonating on the Sunday morning shows and a lot

755
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 2: of folks are wondering if this is in fact the

756
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: same old Trump. Maybe not entirely reformed following an attempt

757
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 2: at send a nation attempt.

758
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: Mick mulvaney knows all about it.

759
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: The former acting White House Chief of Staff, former director

760
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 2: of omb former member of Congress. In fact, he co

761
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 2: founded the House Freedom Caucus and a regular voice on

762
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:14,800
Speaker 2: this program. Nick, what does Governor Kemp have cooking?

763
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 3: What? What was Donald Trump suggesting?

764
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 13: I think you hit the nail on the head. Joe,

765
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 13: by the way, it's good to see you.

766
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 6: I think he's before I think.

767
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 13: His his conversion may have been short lived. And in seriousness,

768
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 13: what I think is happening is that the campaign, which

769
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 13: has been very disciplined in the way they've run for

770
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 13: the last six months, really has been whipsawed by the

771
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:40,280
Speaker 13: events of the last couple of weeks.

772
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 6: You know, you're you're in a tight race, you have

773
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 6: this big.

774
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 13: Debate with Biden, You go up and you become a

775
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 13: huge favorite to win.

776
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:46,919
Speaker 6: Biden drops out.

777
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 13: You're expecting the Democrats to at least have some infighting

778
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 13: before going into the convention and replacing Biden.

779
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 6: They don't do that.

780
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 13: All of a sudden, Kamala Harrisket's this huge bump and

781
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 13: has this honeymoon that nobody really expected to have happened.

782
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 13: And I think against that backdrop, Trump just went back

783
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 13: to being Trump, which is just beating up on anybody

784
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 13: he doesn't care to like, including Republicans. I don't think

785
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 13: it's a very smart move. Yeah, he stopped taking my

786
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,399
Speaker 13: advice a long time ago. I just don't know who

787
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 13: beating up on. Brian Kemp adds to the equation real quickly.

788
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 13: We had this exact same conversation he and I did

789
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 13: in the Oval office about beating up on John McCain

790
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 13: after he had died. Like, mister President, there is nobody

791
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 13: out there who wasn't voting for you, but is now

792
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 13: going to vote for you because you beat up on

793
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 13: a dead guy they voted for for thirty years. That

794
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 13: voter doesn't exist, And I don't know who the voter

795
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 13: exists in Georgia that was against Donald Trump yesterday but

796
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 13: for him today.

797
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 2: Well, look, that's just the name of the game here.

798
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 2: I guess, following me what we saw before the NABJ

799
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: last week. Mick, I know you're supporting Donald Trump in

800
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 2: this campaign. Are you nervous that he's eliminating chances to

801
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 2: add new voters? He's I guess speaking to the base.

802
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 2: But when you saw him up there with Rachel Scott

803
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 2: last week, what went through your head?

804
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 13: No, No, actually, I put that in an entirely different category.

805
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 13: I know, maybe I'm contrary on this one. I was

806
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 13: fine with that from a campaign perspective. They were late,

807
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 13: the tech didn't work. You know, Donald Trump, as far

808
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 13: as his television acumen, he wants lighting to be right.

809
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 13: He wants the lights to be right, and he wants

810
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 13: to be on time. They told him that he had

811
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 13: to be in person and he couldn't do it zoom,

812
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 13: and then let Kamala do it zoom. And he found

813
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 13: that out that day. And then the first question was essentially,

814
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 13: when did you stop being a racist?

815
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 6: You know, I mean, you can't.

816
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 13: It was a horrible question from a really in a

817
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,800
Speaker 13: bad environment. And I think he pushed back and I

818
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 13: don't think it cost him any votes. Did it pick

819
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 13: up any votes? I don't think so. But I think

820
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 13: the simple fact that he showed up is probably a

821
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 13: powerful message to the African American community, especially in Kamala didn't.

822
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 6: So look, I put him in different categories.

823
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 13: But I worry a lot more about Georgia than I

824
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,800
Speaker 13: do about the NABJ thing in Chicago.

825
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 3: Interesting.

826
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 2: You know, questioning someone's racial identity in twenty twenty four

827
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 2: seems to have been a very coarse perspective for a

828
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 2: lot of Americans.

829
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 3: You don't see that that.

830
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 13: Yeah, those are two there are two different, two different

831
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 13: things from the from the conference, right, there was the

832
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 13: pushback into the ABC report and then the comments about

833
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris. All I can tell you about the issue

834
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 13: black or issue Indian or Southeast Asian, however you want

835
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 13: to describe it. My guess is, Joe, and this is

836
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 13: a guess, is that Trump didn't make that up out

837
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 13: of whole cloth.

838
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 6: He heard somebody else, likely.

839
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 13: In the African American community, raise those issues, and he was.

840
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 6: He was passing that on. So uh it does it help? No?

841
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 13: But again I don't think it hurts that much. Given

842
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 13: that the few number of undecideds left in this race.

843
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris has to pick a running mate today, Uh,

844
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 2: make a big moment for the campaign.

845
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 3: Does the Trump camp care?

846
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 2: Does it change the dynamic for strategy?

847
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 6: Th they care about, They care about the attention that

848
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 6: it's going to get.

849
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 13: Kamala Maybe realizing that you can't always wait to the

850
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 13: very last moment, because with the stock market doing what

851
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 13: it's doing, with the Middle East perhaps doing something, she

852
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,240
Speaker 13: may end up being out shown in the news.

853
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:06,879
Speaker 6: If she hasn't time it really right.

854
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 13: I do think the Trump campaign would be worried mostly

855
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 13: about Shapiro because Pennsylvania is such a prize. I got

856
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,360
Speaker 13: to say, Mark Kelly, I like Mark Kelly very. I mean, honey,

857
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 13: you're not like him. He's a great American. But Arizona's

858
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 13: not as big a prize as Pennsylvania. And it would

859
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 13: create a Senate race in two years with a possibly

860
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 13: weak incumbent in a tight Senate race there in Arizona.

861
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 13: So I still come back. My long shot candidate is

862
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 13: still Tim Walls. Tim I happen to know Tim extraordinarily

863
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 13: well's I consider him a good friend. He's just a

864
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:43,359
Speaker 13: really nice guy. And that might sell in more than

865
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 13: just Minnesota. So well, Minnesota's a small state. I ran

866
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 13: Catholics for Trump in twenty twenty, and the biggest difficulty

867
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 13: I had selling Donald Trump was his personality. And if

868
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,280
Speaker 13: you send Tim Walls and it's some of these heavily

869
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 13: Catholic areas in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania.

870
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 6: He might actually help move the needle a little bit.

871
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 13: So that's sort of my long shot bet for the

872
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 13: vice president for the wild Yeah.

873
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 3: I do think it's interesting.

874
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 2: You know, there's the question of whether geography works the

875
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 2: same way with a running mate in this cycle, in

876
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 2: this media landscape, and maybe somebody like Tim Walls, who,

877
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 2: by the way, I think sort of six terms as

878
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 2: a member of Congress has quite a bit of experience,

879
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 2: could help on a sort of managerial level as well

880
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 2: as help in the debate here. I guess we'll find

881
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 2: out a little bit later on today or tomorrow morning.

882
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 3: It's a video Mick.

883
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 2: You do it all by video now, huh?

884
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 6: Come on, what happened to live television, Joe? What happened

885
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 6: to live radio? Let's do it the real.

886
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 2: Life exactly, or or God forbid that to walk out

887
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 2: on stage together. We do everything by video now. It's

888
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 2: a social media world we're in.

889
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 6: It is.

890
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 13: Look, I'm more interested in when she starts answering questions.

891
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 13: I look, that's going to be a story until it's not.

892
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 13: But it's a story right now. She's only I think,

893
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 13: taking one question, and the question was have you made

894
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 13: up your mind? On Vice President answer was not yet.

895
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 13: That's been the extent of our interaction with the press.

896
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 13: So once she announces the VP, my guess is she

897
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 13: has to start being a real candidate and going out

898
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,320
Speaker 13: and talking to people as opposed to what you've just

899
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:09,879
Speaker 13: described doing videos and social media.

900
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 6: But we'll see.

901
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 2: So that's that's the next the next big thing, right,

902
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 2: the sit down interview, same thing that Joe Biden was

903
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 2: doing before he dropped out. You have to prove that

904
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 2: you can do that dance, sit down to a forty

905
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 2: five minute interview with the reporter of your choice.

906
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 6: You do, and it would probably be ABC.

907
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 13: My guess is for the Democrats, you know, they'd love

908
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,319
Speaker 13: to go to MSNBC, but that's cable news, not the

909
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 13: real thing. So they'll go to ABC, just as Joe

910
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 13: Biden went straight to George Stephanopolis right after the debate.

911
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 6: That's that's home.

912
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 13: That's safety for them, just like Fox's safety for Republicans.

913
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,799
Speaker 13: So my guess is she starts there, but we'll have

914
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 13: to do all the networks and maybe even we'll get

915
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 13: her on bloomber.

916
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 3: Well.

917
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 2: We'll be asking, of course, Mick, you know it's Kamala, right,

918
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 2: I have to ask you that because people are suggesting

919
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump's mispronouncing her name on purpose.

920
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 6: Is that is that a thing?

921
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 13: I'm just not that smart and I'm married to a Pamela,

922
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 13: So I'm just I mean no disrespect. If I'm pronouncing

923
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 13: her name improperly, I apologize for that.

924
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 3: No, I didn't think. I didn't think you did. That's

925
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:12,839
Speaker 3: why I brought it up. Mack.

926
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 2: It's good to see you. Thank you for coming back

927
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 2: to talk to us. And I'll be curious your thoughts

928
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 2: on this pick. This is going to be an interesting

929
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 2: moment here, of course, the former acting White House Chief

930
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 2: of Staff Mick Mulvaney. I can only imagine mixed thoughts

931
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: on what's happened to the Freedom Caucus right now.

932
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 3: Follow me, Bob Good.

933
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 2: That'll be a conversation for another day. Thanks for listening

934
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe

935
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

936
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

937
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.