Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: You'll see that we're somewhere a little different today as
Speaker 2: we join you live from Bloomberg City Labs twenty twenty
Speaker 2: three event in downtown Washington, DC, gathering mayors, innovators, and
Speaker 2: business leaders from all over the country at a time
Speaker 2: of chaos here in the nation's capital, and over the
Speaker 2: next two hours, will be joined by city leaders from
Speaker 2: across the nation, from Allentown, Pennsylvania to Fort Collins, Colorado.
Speaker 2: So stay with us. We have a lot to learn
Speaker 2: and a lot to cover here the next two hours.
Speaker 2: We start though, with an update on Capitol Hill. Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines has been there for a couple of hours.
Speaker 2: As things shift under Jim Jordan's feet and Kaylee, it
Speaker 2: looks like the Republican from Ohio is out of the
Speaker 2: running for speaker. What's the latest.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's not taking himself out of the running entirely, Joe.
Speaker 3: What he is trying to support is temporarily giving more
Speaker 3: power to the Speaker pro tem Patrick m henry, so
Speaker 3: that he can try to continue whipping votes that he
Speaker 3: will need to actually get the gabble. There's a number
Speaker 3: of different proposals on the table. We understand that the
Speaker 3: GOP conference is actually still meeting in the basement of
Speaker 3: the Capital trying to hammer all of this out. One
Speaker 3: proposal on the table is from Congressman Joyce. It would
Speaker 3: empower McHenry through January third. There's another on the table, though,
Speaker 3: from Mike Flood, which would actually give mckenry full power
Speaker 3: of the speakership, but for a shorter period of time
Speaker 3: until November thirtieth. There are a number of representatives who
Speaker 3: came out who spoke with reporters who have suggested they
Speaker 3: do not like this planned. Tim Burchett, Marjorie Taylor Green,
Speaker 3: Ralph Norman, just to name a few, are not on board.
Speaker 3: So it's going to come down to the math here.
Speaker 3: It's not clear Joe, that that kind of resolution has
Speaker 3: the support within the Republican Conference. Then it would be up,
Speaker 3: of course, to the Democrats to see if something like
Speaker 3: that could get done.
Speaker 2: So help me understand this, help all of our listeners
Speaker 2: and viewers here, Kaylee, because when you and I were
Speaker 2: talking at this time yesterday, we thought there was going
Speaker 2: to be a third round. That's not happening now. Your
Speaker 2: point is that Jim Jordan essentially will stand in the wings.
Speaker 2: Well Patrick McHenry gets the hard work done as an
Speaker 2: empowered temporary speaker, and then what there's another election, say
Speaker 2: in January, whenever that period ends.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly right, Joe. To put it in the
Speaker 3: words of Congressman Tim Burchett from Tennessee, who is just
Speaker 3: speaking to me and a couple other reporters, he thinks
Speaker 3: this is just essentially kicking the can down the road.
Speaker 3: But in some ways it kind of is empower McHenry
Speaker 3: to do the work of the House in the interim term,
Speaker 3: things that need to get done, like funding the government
Speaker 3: past November seventeenth, trying to get potentially a supplemental package
Speaker 3: with funding for Israel through Congress as well, and in
Speaker 3: the meantime, behind the scenes, Jim Jordan will be trying
Speaker 3: to garner the support he needs to actually get the
Speaker 3: full speakership. So that seems to be the plan, but
Speaker 3: again it's unclear at this time whether or not that
Speaker 3: plan will move forward if my understanding from speaking to
Speaker 3: members in the hallways that they're going to try to
Speaker 3: sort this out to some degree behind closed doors before
Speaker 3: taking anything to the floor. So remains very unclear whether
Speaker 3: we'll see anything heading to the floor today.
Speaker 2: Wow, really amazing stuff here, Kayley. Of course, that means
Speaker 2: funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the border as we've
Speaker 2: discussed coming together into one piece of legislation. We'll just
Speaker 2: have to wait the presidents speaking of the nation tonight
Speaker 2: to make the case for it. But there's no one
Speaker 2: to receive the bill.
Speaker 3: Well, that's exactly right. It's going to have a hard
Speaker 3: time getting congressional approval when there's only one chamber of
Speaker 3: Congress at the moment that is actually functioning. The Senate
Speaker 3: seems eager to move on that, Joe, But of course
Speaker 3: the House is a different question, which comes back to
Speaker 3: the idea of if they can't co a less around
Speaker 3: one individual who at this time can get two hundred
Speaker 3: and seventeen votes, which it seems at the moment Jim
Speaker 3: Jordan cannot. That McHenry needs to be able to act
Speaker 3: in that way to do that. But a lot of
Speaker 3: these members who are opposed to the idea, think this
Speaker 3: is unconstitutional, that it may set a bad precedent. Despite
Speaker 3: the need to actually get things done in the House,
Speaker 3: it's just not something it seems that they can support.
Speaker 3: So they're still trying to figure out a way forward
Speaker 3: here to just be in a position to be able
Speaker 3: to pass that kind of supplemental request. Actually getting members
Speaker 3: to vote for something that includes funding for Ukraine, for example,
Speaker 3: is going to be an entirely different story that either
Speaker 3: a more powerful Patrick mckenry in a temporary role or
Speaker 3: ultimately a House Speaker is going to have the job
Speaker 3: of trying to do.
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable. Kaylee is great to see you, Thanks for
Speaker 2: the update, great work today on the Hill, and I'll
Speaker 2: meet you back in the Bureau a little bit later
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg'skaylee lines who's normally with us here on the broadcast,
Speaker 2: but we're on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue as I
Speaker 2: join you from the Waldorf in downtown d C, which
Speaker 2: today is hosting Bloomberg City Labs twenty twenty three event,
Speaker 2: and we're surrounded by a lot of people who work
Speaker 2: for government elected officials who do not have the luxury
Speaker 2: of this kind of Well, I guess we'll say politics
Speaker 2: that we're seeing in Washington. They have to deal with
Speaker 2: real matters in real time. Those are the mayors of
Speaker 2: towns and cities across the country, many of whom we're
Speaker 2: going to meet over the next two hours, beginning right
Speaker 2: now with Mayor Jenny Aren't, Democrat from Fort Collins, Colorado.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Washington. It's great to see you. Well, thanks
Speaker 2: for having me, Thanks for being with us here on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. You just heard Kaylee disc I have the
Speaker 2: madness that's happening just blocks away from here, and I wonder,
Speaker 2: first of all, what you're hearing from folks in Fort
Speaker 2: Collins when they watch the news, read the papers, go
Speaker 2: online and read stories that just don't seem to make sense.
Speaker 4: Well, they fundamentally, I think washingting is broken, and I
Speaker 4: think that we can see that it is right now,
Speaker 4: and hopefully we all hope for the best, and in
Speaker 4: the meantime we continue with our work at the city.
Speaker 2: So tell me what people are talking about and what
Speaker 2: you're focused on right now, because we're speaking a different
Speaker 2: language here inside the bubble. That's right.
Speaker 4: Well, one of the advantages we have in city government,
Speaker 4: our city government. Is you introduce me as a Democrat
Speaker 4: and I am lifelong. Yeah, but we run on a
Speaker 4: non partisan basis in Fort Collins, so we don't have
Speaker 4: that sort of divide pulling us and pushing us in
Speaker 4: different directions. I think that's an advantage of some cities
Speaker 4: run that way. Right now, we're just in the middle
Speaker 4: of a housing crisis. Fort Collins is the third most
Speaker 4: expensive housing market outside the Coats in the United States.
Speaker 4: So we have restrictive and c limits. We call it
Speaker 4: U plus two just you and two other people can
Speaker 4: live in a house. And we have a thirty five
Speaker 4: thousand person university, Colorado State University in our city, so
Speaker 4: we have occupancy restrictions, and then we have a lot
Speaker 4: of restrictions on building. And right now, Tuesday night, I
Speaker 4: had to miss the first part of City lab because
Speaker 4: I was up taking the second vote on creating more
Speaker 4: housing and Fort Collins, and I just read right before
Speaker 4: I came down here. We passed it last year, there
Speaker 4: was a citizen's initiative to have a repealed that they
Speaker 4: were successful. We passed it again on Tuesday, and I
Speaker 4: just read right now that they're trying to repeal it again.
Speaker 2: Well, Jeeves, and we're here. We are with nearly eight
Speaker 2: percent mortgage rates on a thirty year mortgage. This is
Speaker 2: very real for people who are particularly young people who
Speaker 2: are trying to buy into the housing market. Does that
Speaker 2: make it more difficult to draw workers to Fort Collins? Oh,
Speaker 2: it is a growing economy.
Speaker 4: It's one of the least climate awareness things we can
Speaker 4: do as the block piece pull out of our city.
Speaker 4: Yet ask them to come in and be our police officers,
Speaker 4: our teachers, you know, our nurses. We're closing and consolidating
Speaker 4: schools at the same time our city is growing, so
Speaker 4: we are fundamentally not attracting or being able to have
Speaker 4: people affordably live in our town.
Speaker 2: You reached first for the housing market, which is fascinating
Speaker 2: to me, and it leads us directly into interest rates,
Speaker 2: which brings me to inflation. We hear about it every
Speaker 2: day here as almost an abstract. In Washington, we of course,
Speaker 2: are a data company here. We pour over this stuff
Speaker 2: on a daily basis at Bloomberg, but bring it home
Speaker 2: for me a way that we might not hear conversations
Speaker 2: in Washington apply. How much do you hear about higher
Speaker 2: prices making life difficult? Beyond housing, but just day to
Speaker 2: day needs.
Speaker 4: Sure also on Tuesday Night. So recent red hot. You know,
Speaker 4: we just increased our utility rates. I mean those things
Speaker 4: are real bills that go to real people every month.
Speaker 4: And course it hits the least among us the hardest
Speaker 4: because they have to pay a higher percentage of their
Speaker 4: income on utility. Yeah, so we increase that power and water.
Speaker 4: So these are real, real things.
Speaker 2: So what are you getting from Washington or not getting
Speaker 2: from Washington? We talk a lot about infrastructure and investments
Speaker 2: through the Inflation Reduction Act that are bringing investments to
Speaker 2: cities like yours, But you might not have a relationship
Speaker 2: with your member of Congress that supports those ideas.
Speaker 4: I do. I have Jonah Goose is our congressional represents,
Speaker 4: and we have two wonderful senators from Colorado. Yeah, we
Speaker 4: work really closely together. Sometimes Fort Collins doesn't get the
Speaker 4: grants other communities due because as a wealthy community, we
Speaker 4: have already sponsored some of these initiatives on our own.
Speaker 4: And you know what, I'm fine with that. If there's
Speaker 4: another community that needs it more than we do, I
Speaker 4: think it should go there. But we have been successful
Speaker 4: in federal grants and our best rapid transit and other things.
Speaker 2: You have another member of Congress in Colorado, Lauren Bobert,
Speaker 2: who's been making some waves and making some news. Yes, sir, well,
Speaker 2: she'll see will she still have that seat following the election.
Speaker 4: We're trying every thing we can to store the reputation
Speaker 4: and the good representation for the people of Colorado.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Is that a talker, as we say, is at
Speaker 2: an issue on the table for people in Colorado to
Speaker 2: the extent that it is the sort of tabloid of
Speaker 2: political media.
Speaker 4: Yes, it is, Yes, and I'm very familiar. I was
Speaker 4: in the legislature for seven years and I have a
Speaker 4: lot of West Slope colleagues, and although it's a more
Speaker 4: conservative part of our state, everyone deserves to be represented.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm glad you joined us. Thanks for being with us,
Speaker 2: and I wish you luck at City Lab here. I
Speaker 2: hope it's a productive visit. It is to the nation's capital. Absolutely,
Speaker 2: Mayor Jenny aren't with us from Fort Collins, Colorado.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington and glad you're with us
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg Sound On. As we had the voice
Speaker 2: now of Mayor Aftab. It's wonderful to see you from
Speaker 2: the great city of Cincinnati. Welcome to Washington. Thank you
Speaker 2: so much for having it brings you to City Lab.
Speaker 2: First of all, I've been talking to various mayors from
Speaker 2: around the country and everyone seems to have a different
Speaker 2: issue or a different agenda in a way that you
Speaker 2: can make this event productive. Yeah.
Speaker 5: We we have been really fortunate to be the recipient
Speaker 5: of extraordinary investment from Bloomberg Philanthropies and a whole host
Speaker 5: of issues, but predominantly in closing the racial wealth gap
Speaker 5: in Cincinnati and using data.
Speaker 2: In order to do it.
Speaker 5: We partnered with Bloomberg to study a year long study
Speaker 5: of the barriers to wealth generation amongst Cincinnatians, specifically Black Cincinnatians,
Speaker 5: and that year long process resulted in recommendations on how
Speaker 5: to mitigate the damage and also improve wealth generation in
Speaker 5: specifically are black and historically black neighborhoods. And the data
Speaker 5: is very very clear that if you invest dollars into
Speaker 5: programs that put money into the hands of people who
Speaker 5: need it most, the results are transformative. And so with Bloomberg,
Speaker 5: we were able to pass baby bonds for all of
Speaker 5: our preschool students going through our Preschool Promise program. They
Speaker 5: will get savings accounts that will follow them over the
Speaker 5: next three years because sixty percent of kids who have
Speaker 5: access to a savings account go to college. We're spending
Speaker 5: one point three million dollars to wipe out medical debt
Speaker 5: for thirty thousand residents because medical debt is the biggest
Speaker 5: barrier for wealth generation amongst our black citizens. And finally,
Speaker 5: we have seated a universal based income program. During the pandemic,
Speaker 5: the federal government's injection of cash into low income communities
Speaker 5: showed huge benefits, and so we're trying to prolong those
Speaker 5: ARP dollars with our own local program.
Speaker 2: Well, that was quite a list. It's a lot different
Speaker 2: than the lists I hear in Washington, and that's been
Speaker 2: a theme and I suspect we'll be throughout the broadcast here.
Speaker 2: But what do you make of what's happening in town
Speaker 2: right now. The story is that we can't get along,
Speaker 2: we can't get anything done. Congress is literally on hold
Speaker 2: right now without a speaker, and we're dealing with some
Speaker 2: very pressing issues at a clearly urgent time here for
Speaker 2: our democracy, For funding our government. Does that have a
Speaker 2: spillover effect in the cities like yours?
Speaker 5: Of course it has a spillover effect. Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill,
Speaker 5: President Biden's ARP program, the Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act,
Speaker 5: These are having profound impacts government. Federal government legislation, federal
Speaker 5: action is having profound impacts on our local economy, on
Speaker 5: our public safety, on our housing issues, on climate, and
Speaker 5: without those federal dollars, without that leadership, we just don't
Speaker 5: have the resources necessary to fight back against these macro
Speaker 5: economic problems. So what you see in DC is the
Speaker 5: opposite of what you'll see in major American cities. It
Speaker 5: is impossible for a mayor not to be pragmatic. It
Speaker 5: is impossible for a mayor to be extreme. Because we
Speaker 5: are so proximate to our citizens and so proximate to
Speaker 5: the issues. No one cares if I'm spinning or obfuscating.
Speaker 5: People expect a mayor to be the moral voice of
Speaker 5: their city, to take clear, specific stands on hard issues,
Speaker 5: and most importantly lead, and that's what we are seeing
Speaker 5: across the country, specifically in Cincinnati on racial wealth gap inequalities,
Speaker 5: and that's what we need to see more of in Washington,
Speaker 5: d C.
Speaker 2: Do you have a partner in the Biden administration. We do.
Speaker 5: I'm very close with the Biden administration. Cincinnati recently got
Speaker 5: the single largest federal grant in our country's history, one
Speaker 5: point six billion dollars to redo the Brent Spence Bridge,
Speaker 5: which is critically important to Cincinnati but also critically important
Speaker 5: to interstate commerce. Three percent of our GDP goes over
Speaker 5: that bridge. We're using the bipartisan Infrastructure Dollars to reconnect
Speaker 5: historically black communities that were destroyed by the highway development
Speaker 5: in the fifties and sixties. The Chips Act paved the
Speaker 5: way for Intel to make a two hundred billion dollar
Speaker 5: investment in Central Ohio, the largest semiconductor plant in our country,
Speaker 5: and we will see a massive supply chain impact in
Speaker 5: Cincinnati based on that investment. So across the board, we
Speaker 5: are seeing real impacts in Cincinnati for what's going on
Speaker 5: in DC.
Speaker 2: We have a new pull out today Bloomberg and Morning
Speaker 2: Consult that really makes clear the importance to which the
Speaker 2: economy is going to factor into this election cycle coming
Speaker 2: up here. We talk about a lot of different issues
Speaker 2: around this campaign, from reproductive rights to student loans, but
Speaker 2: the economy clearly rises to the top. I wonder if
Speaker 2: you see and feel that and what the concerns are
Speaker 2: from people who live in Cincinnati. We talk about inflation
Speaker 2: and in the abstract, what does it mean for people
Speaker 2: in your city.
Speaker 5: It's a real challenge the macroeconomic factors inflation, interest rates
Speaker 5: being so high, insurance rates being so high, construction costs
Speaker 5: being so high. It's very, very hard to get anything
Speaker 5: out of the ground right now.
Speaker 2: Does that end up being a problem for Democrats?
Speaker 5: I don't think so. No, because the Biden administration has
Speaker 5: passed legislation to address those issues. And by passing those
Speaker 5: pieces of legislation, Cincinnati, just our example, is seeing huge
Speaker 5: benefits from our local economy. To even think like public safety.
Speaker 5: President Biden's leadership getting ARP dollars into cities literally saved Cincinnati.
Speaker 5: We would not have been able to afford to exist
Speaker 5: as a city without those ARP dollars, and so much
Speaker 5: of the negative rhetoric around police funding happening in Washington,
Speaker 5: d C. Has nothing to do with the lived reality
Speaker 5: in Cincinnati. In fact, it's President Biden and Democratic mayors
Speaker 5: across the city that are actually funding public safety.
Speaker 2: We're spending some time here with the Mayor off tap
Speaker 2: pure Vall, the Democratic mayor of Cincinnati, as part of
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's City Lab event here in Washington, d C. What
Speaker 2: do you end up taking away from this when you
Speaker 2: see your counterparts from cities in very different parts of
Speaker 2: the country who are dealing with different realities.
Speaker 5: Similar The issues are every major American city and every
Speaker 5: Americans you're talking about as dealing with housing shortages, is
Speaker 5: dealing with climate change, is dealing with public safety and
Speaker 5: gun violence, and is dealing with economic development in a
Speaker 5: really kind of uncertain economic period. Those issues are not
Speaker 5: unique across the country. But tailoring bespoke strategies to make
Speaker 5: an impact on your specific municipality, getting feedback from other
Speaker 5: mayors who've tried similar things on similar issues is really
Speaker 5: incredibly important.
Speaker 2: As you look ahead to a time with the Speaker
Speaker 2: of the House, maybe some funding and issuatives that go
Speaker 2: into this new year. What's the priority for Cincinnati. You've
Speaker 2: mentioned a housing shortage. Jenny Aren't from Fort Collins grab
Speaker 2: that as the first issue that she mentioned as well.
Speaker 2: What can Washington do when we have eight percent on
Speaker 2: a thirty year mortgage.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, public safety will always be first, second, and
Speaker 5: third from a priority perspective for probably most American mayors.
Speaker 5: But I do think housing shortages is a real problem
Speaker 5: across the country, and more and more people of view
Speaker 5: housing as a basic service, akin to snow removal or
Speaker 5: trash pickup or fixing potholes. Fortunately, the way our city
Speaker 5: governments are structured, we do not have the resources that
Speaker 5: a HUD does on the national level, and so having
Speaker 5: the federal government take a more active role in cracking
Speaker 5: down on institutional investors on providing more creative solutions to
Speaker 5: rental equity. You know, the Emergency Rental Assistance Program through
Speaker 5: ARP was wildly successful. More national legislation around that, around
Speaker 5: access to housing and renters' rights is absolutely necessary.
Speaker 2: I'mily glad you could join us. Nice to meet you,
Speaker 2: Mayor Pirwall. Great you to have you with us here
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. We're not in the normal location,
Speaker 2: as you can see on YouTube. If you want to
Speaker 2: join us, search Bloomberg Global News on YouTube. We've got
Speaker 2: Hamra's set up here at the Waldorf Astoria in downtown
Speaker 2: Washington for Bloomberg City Labs twenty twenty three event, gathering
Speaker 2: mayors and innovators from around the country. It's already brought
Speaker 2: some fascinating conversations to the program. Here is we go
Speaker 2: to ground in towns and cities around the country that
Speaker 2: are dealing with reality as opposed to the fantasy land
Speaker 2: that you might describe here in Washington, DC. Now one
Speaker 2: of the top stories today beyond the speaker race, beyond
Speaker 2: the President's address later, and we're going to get to
Speaker 2: those as we move through the hour. Jim Jordan not
Speaker 2: standing for a third round as speaker, and President Biden
Speaker 2: will address the nation from the Oval Office at eight
Speaker 2: pm Washington time. It all comes against the backdrop of
Speaker 2: new data, new polling data from Bloomberg and Morning Consult
Speaker 2: that we're going to dig into with Eli Yoakley, our
Speaker 2: colleague at Morning Consult where he's political analyst and no
Speaker 2: stranger to this broadcast. Eli, welcome back. We can call
Speaker 2: each other colleagues now, right because we're working on polls together.
Speaker 2: I think that's right.
Speaker 6: It's good to be here. You're like two blocks away
Speaker 6: from me right now.
Speaker 2: I love this. Come by for the crab cakes later.
Speaker 2: I'll meet you in like an hour. Joe Biden, based
Speaker 2: on what I'm reading here, has a bit to worry about.
Speaker 2: And this is important, Eli, And let's start broad because
Speaker 2: we talk about national poles just about every day, I
Speaker 2: feel like, and they seem to mean less over time,
Speaker 2: because not only are the samples in some cases questionable,
Speaker 2: but we're so early and it really comes down to
Speaker 2: battleground states and this pole does just that, as zero's
Speaker 2: in on seven battleground states that will likely decide the
Speaker 2: next president of the United States. And when you cut
Speaker 2: out the noise nationally and look at these races, Joe
Speaker 2: Biden's got some work on his hands. What do you see.
Speaker 7: Joe Biden has a tough road ahead of him. I mean,
Speaker 7: the national poles are telling us the same thing. These
Speaker 7: state poles almost starved. Well, this race is much closer
Speaker 7: than he wishes it would be. He's underwater in Arizona
Speaker 7: and in Georgia and in Wisconsin. These states were so
Speaker 7: important to his victory in twenty twenty and right now
Speaker 7: losing a lot of people there. That's not where you
Speaker 7: want to be a year af from election day. But
Speaker 7: we are about a year from election day, and there's
Speaker 7: time for the president to improve on some.
Speaker 2: Of these Well, let's dig into some of the numbers
Speaker 2: more specifically here and the issues ELI because the economy
Speaker 2: was what was supposed to be the winning issue for
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. Bidenomics, the Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Deal,
Speaker 2: all of those bring lower scores for Joe Biden than
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Can you walk us through.
Speaker 7: I mean, the headline figure to me was half of
Speaker 7: voters in all of these states combined think Bidenomics has
Speaker 7: been bad for the country's economy.
Speaker 6: His message is not winning in these swing states where.
Speaker 4: He needs it to be.
Speaker 7: And that's something we've also noticed in some of our
Speaker 7: national tracking you know, when good things happen for the economy,
Speaker 7: voters are far less likely to hear about them than
Speaker 7: they are the bad things.
Speaker 6: He's got a case to make.
Speaker 7: The problem is the voters aren't hearing about it. And
Speaker 7: on every economy the economic issue we tested, from housing
Speaker 7: to cost, Donald Trump has an advantage. Only about a
Speaker 7: third voters trust Joe Biden to handle those things. He's president.
Speaker 7: This is his problem right now. Donald Trump is not
Speaker 7: in office, but you know, clearly over the next year
Speaker 7: he's got to work to convince the American people that
Speaker 7: Bidenomics is working for.
Speaker 2: Him if it hasn't happened yet. Though we lie. I
Speaker 2: know you're not a political strategist advising the president here,
Speaker 2: but my goodness, I was talking to Rick Davis a
Speaker 2: little while ago about these numbers. You can only have
Speaker 2: so many campaign events with a hard hat and a
Speaker 2: back ho Is that the next year for Joe Biden?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I mean, And part of it is, you know, the
Speaker 7: ad spending really hasn't started yet. The President hasn't yet
Speaker 7: made his political case to the American people. A lot
Speaker 7: of his campaign events have been going out and raising
Speaker 7: a lot of money. The other thing is you know,
Speaker 7: a lot of the economic news when it's good, it's
Speaker 7: kind of doesn't get a lot of attention. And meanwhile,
Speaker 7: you've got a hot war in Israel, a hot war
Speaker 7: in Ukraine.
Speaker 6: The national media attention has focused sought on that the
Speaker 6: American people are too.
Speaker 7: And and still folks are going to the grocery store
Speaker 7: and things are expensive. And so whenever you hear about
Speaker 7: these wins of hiss, bet on chips, be it on infrastructure,
Speaker 7: those are like long term policy victories that over time
Speaker 7: will yield results. That doesn't do anything about gas prices
Speaker 7: or how much it costs it by.
Speaker 6: A gallon Milker.
Speaker 2: Well, we can go beyond the table kitchen table issues here.
Speaker 2: As you point out, foreign policy is a problem as well.
Speaker 2: Trump fares better than Joe Biden on US China relations
Speaker 2: as well as the war in Ukraine. And I don't
Speaker 2: know how much that has to do with the fact
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump has not been in office for this conflict.
Speaker 2: It's not necessarily a real comparison to be made there.
Speaker 2: But he frequently says if he were president, this never
Speaker 2: would have happened. And if he becomes president again and
Speaker 2: he could fix it and end this war in twenty
Speaker 2: four hours. What do you make of that?
Speaker 7: I think a lot of that is Donald Trump's distance
Speaker 7: from the Oval Office at this point.
Speaker 6: Honestly, I mean, Joe.
Speaker 7: Biden's underwater on every issue, almost every issue we tested,
Speaker 7: except for things like climate. I think the American people
Speaker 7: have just a bad view of him at this moment.
Speaker 7: And meanwhile, Donald Trump is just not getting the same
Speaker 7: kind of attention that he used to whenever he was
Speaker 7: in the Oval Office.
Speaker 6: I think part of this is the.
Speaker 7: Biden campaign will need to litigate a case against the
Speaker 7: President on these national security issues. I think the Jack
Speaker 7: Smith case involving the classified documents, it's a pretty clear
Speaker 7: way of doing it. The challenge has been the president
Speaker 7: has been afraid to touch it given the Justice Department's
Speaker 7: involvement in it. But you have the present the for
Speaker 7: president of classified documents down at mar Lago. That seems
Speaker 7: like a pretty easy case to make the American people
Speaker 7: not to trust the former president. But the challenge is
Speaker 7: Joe Biden is overseeing now two wars and this issue
Speaker 7: is front and center for it.
Speaker 2: Spending time with Eli Yoakley, politics analyst at Morning Consult,
Speaker 2: which helped us generate the poll that we're talking about
Speaker 2: today at Bloomberg News. In these swing states, Nevada was
Speaker 2: actually the best showing for Joe Biden among the seven
Speaker 2: that you isolated, ELI, Is that because of organized labor
Speaker 2: on the Las Vegas Strip or is it something I'm
Speaker 2: not thinking of.
Speaker 7: I think it probably a lot of that is It's
Speaker 7: also a rather more diverse state than some of these
Speaker 7: other states we've tested in this survey. I mean, Joe
Speaker 7: Biden is really struggling with white voters generally, and especially
Speaker 7: among the white working class, and that's dragging him down
Speaker 7: both nationally and in some of these other states. Joe
Speaker 7: Biden is still doing okay with members of labor unions
Speaker 7: across the board. I think he has some challenges maybe
Speaker 7: in some of these states, but clearly his attrition with
Speaker 7: white people in the white working class generally is a
Speaker 7: problem for him.
Speaker 6: I mean, since twenty sixteen dollars, his.
Speaker 7: Republican Party has made notable gains in terms of caring
Speaker 7: about people like caring about people like me, like the
Speaker 7: classic campaign question, and a lot of that has come
Speaker 7: from white people, A lot of it has come from
Speaker 7: lower earners, and a lot of these states, those people
Speaker 7: side elections, and they're not siding with they're not signing
Speaker 7: with Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: Before I get to some of the other issues here,
Speaker 2: I have to ask you about infrastructure. Donald Trump, it
Speaker 2: was a meme, it was a joke here in town
Speaker 2: that every week was infrastructure Week. He promised it, he
Speaker 2: never got it done. Joe Biden made this his signature achievement.
Speaker 2: The biggest investment in infrastructure since FDR, we were told,
Speaker 2: and Trump has an edge on the matter of infrastructure
Speaker 2: here as we look at the data on the terminal
Speaker 2: forty two to thirty eight percent, how do we rationalize that?
Speaker 2: Is it because these jobs haven't actually begun.
Speaker 7: I think it's a long term policy victory that's a
Speaker 7: while for voters to see. And I also just think
Speaker 7: Joe Biden is getting dogged down by people not liking him.
Speaker 7: I think they've got a lot of bombs about his age,
Speaker 7: and they've got a lot of qualms about the economy,
Speaker 7: and so you ask them about just about anything, and
Speaker 7: he gets negative views from the American people and these
Speaker 7: swing state voters we talked to.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about demographics for a moment, Eli, Joe Biden
Speaker 2: still has one point of strength here that Donald Trump
Speaker 2: could be envious of, and that's female voters. Could women
Speaker 2: save his campaign?
Speaker 6: I think they could. I think that that's what we
Speaker 6: saw in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 7: I mean, part of what we might be seeing in
Speaker 7: this election cycle is another setup of the circumstances we
Speaker 7: saw in the midterm elections. Voters talk a lot about
Speaker 7: the economy, but there's also other issues on their minds,
Speaker 7: and the abortion issue is one where Joe Biden has
Speaker 7: a slight advantage over Donald Trump. It's one that has
Speaker 7: clearly excited.
Speaker 6: The Democrat at a base. But he's got to fix
Speaker 6: this economy issue.
Speaker 7: I mean, in our survey we did together, women notice
Speaker 7: this a lot more and the cost, the cost thing
Speaker 7: hits them hard. There's been political science studies on this
Speaker 7: that you women notice the price of groceries because they're
Speaker 7: often the ones doing the grocery shopping. This is this
Speaker 7: is clearly weighing on him. He should be doing better
Speaker 7: with them than he is today.
Speaker 2: Well, when you say fix this, the White House would say, hey,
Speaker 2: look we've got the strongest job market in history. We've
Speaker 2: come out of the hole with COVID, We've brought inflation down,
Speaker 2: albeit not all the way to the Fed's target. What
Speaker 2: else do you want us to fix?
Speaker 6: It's costs. I mean, it's the cost of everyday goods
Speaker 6: is just dragging down.
Speaker 2: So it's finishing the job on inflation.
Speaker 7: It is finishing the job on inflation. And look, he's
Speaker 7: seen some good numbers. I think last week's report was
Speaker 7: a good report for the president. But who was talking
Speaker 7: about the inflation report last week? We were all talking
Speaker 7: about Israel and Hamas and some of us were talking
Speaker 7: about the speaker's phrase in Washington, which is really not breaking.
Speaker 6: Through to the American people.
Speaker 7: The good news that Joe Biden has seen on the
Speaker 7: economy just isn't breaking through to the American people. That's
Speaker 7: incumbent on his campaign with all of the money they
Speaker 7: raised to try to tell that story next year.
Speaker 2: What are the surprises for you? Here? Were they? The
Speaker 2: top line numbers? He like you do this for a living?
Speaker 2: Is that a lot of these numbers surprised many of us,
Speaker 2: But for a Polster, what was unexpected?
Speaker 7: I think I was surprised to see him actually underwater
Speaker 7: in some of these states like Arizona and Georgia.
Speaker 6: We knew he wasn't popular there, but we hadn't.
Speaker 7: Really dug much into the numbers in terms of the
Speaker 7: head to head contests with President Trump.
Speaker 6: The other thing is, in this survey and all these.
Speaker 7: States we tested third party contenders generally just going to
Speaker 7: be saw that the margins really didn't change between Joe
Speaker 7: Biden and Donald Trump. It seemed that maybe Biden took
Speaker 7: more of a hit, but in terms of the distance
Speaker 7: between him and the president generally maybe with the exception
Speaker 7: of Nevada, actually it did not change things dramatically in
Speaker 7: his standing against Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, that's fascinating because you don't need me to tell
Speaker 2: you that people are working overtime and spending a lot
Speaker 2: of money to try to prevent a no labels candidate,
Speaker 2: for instance, from running, suggesting that that could make the
Speaker 2: difference in a state like Georgio. Cornell West could even
Speaker 2: were told, make the difference in a state like Georgia,
Speaker 2: where it could be down to two percent. You don't
Speaker 2: see it that way, then this poll does not support that.
Speaker 6: You don't need much.
Speaker 7: I mean, that's the thing here is in these surveys,
Speaker 7: one point matters. I mean, ask President Hillary Clinton how
Speaker 7: Michigan and Wisconsin went for her. The good news for
Speaker 7: President Biden here is where he's struggling the most is
Speaker 7: among his former supporters from twenty twenty. He lacks the
Speaker 7: backing of about fourteen of them, compared to only nine
Speaker 7: percent of the attrition Donald Trump has seen since twenty twenty.
Speaker 7: He has a chance to win these folks back, and
Speaker 7: he has a story to tell. He just needs to
Speaker 7: be able to sell it to the people, and especially
Speaker 7: the people who voted for him last time. And maybe
Speaker 7: Donald Trump will help as we get out of the
Speaker 7: Republican primary phase, he takes center stage and President Biden's
Speaker 7: able to revive some of the same dynamics from twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: So give me the grain of salt in Eli Yoakley
Speaker 2: before you leave us. How much are these numbers going
Speaker 2: to change in the next six months? What could they
Speaker 2: look like between now and actual election day.
Speaker 7: Well, there's a good chunk of voters in all of
Speaker 7: these states, you know, about six to eleven percent who
Speaker 7: said they don't know who they're supporting, and so that
Speaker 7: could make or break either side of this equation for
Speaker 7: either of these contenders.
Speaker 6: Because these numbers are so close.
Speaker 7: When you look at the national contests the race is
Speaker 7: neck and neck. A lot of folks are still sitting
Speaker 7: on the sideline.
Speaker 6: The thing I'll be.
Speaker 7: Watching over the next year between now an election day,
Speaker 7: it is the Democratic enthusiasm number.
Speaker 6: Clearly that clearly Joe Biden has an enthusiasm problem.
Speaker 7: I think the question for him and his campaign is
Speaker 7: whether running against Donald Trump again.
Speaker 6: We'll allow him to fix that problem. You'll revive his
Speaker 6: twenty twenty base.
Speaker 2: We've got a lot to learn and sometime to learn it. Eli,
Speaker 2: thank you for sharing time with us. This is going
Speaker 2: to be monthly, right, You're going to come back every
Speaker 2: month and talk to us about the latest data. Absolutely,
Speaker 2: I think you're not getting away without it. Eli, Thank you,
Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley. Political analysts that morning consult find this poll.
Speaker 2: You can dig through all the crosstabs Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2: Find it on the terminal as well with some really
Speaker 2: interesting and in some cases counterintuitive findings from the campaign trail.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
Speaker 1: tune in app Bloomberg, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Live from Bloomberg City Lab twenty twenty three event at
Speaker 2: the Waldorf Downtown. We're not in studio, as you can
Speaker 2: see if you're with us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, and we do have some
Speaker 2: breaking news from Capitol Hill. We've been following this all day.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg'skaylee Lines reporting now that the Republican conference meeting in
Speaker 2: the House has ended and we still have no idea
Speaker 2: what happens from here. Jim Jordan apparently will not stand
Speaker 2: for a third vote, at least not today, and there
Speaker 2: are a lot of questions about what happens to Patrick
Speaker 2: McHenry and potential enhancement of powers there. Will keep you
Speaker 2: posted as we learn more about it, because this is
Speaker 2: a conversation we're having today that's going to be resonating
Speaker 2: for some time. I don't know if it's resonating in Scranton, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: but we'll find out right now because we're joined by
Speaker 2: the mayor, Paige Cognetti. It's great to see you. Thank
Speaker 2: you so much for Joe us here at City Lab
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg.
Speaker 8: Thanks for having me. It's great to be here.
Speaker 2: We'll get to all that stuff. Of course. The son
Speaker 2: of Scranton, we hear about so often, is going to
Speaker 2: be in everyone's living room tonight with an oval office address.
Speaker 2: Do you love hearing that? When Joe Biden says Scranton
Speaker 2: as his hometown even though he's lived in Delaware for
Speaker 2: so long. Is that good for business?
Speaker 8: Absolutely? He is the son of Scranton. You walk down
Speaker 8: the street, you're going to meet somebody. If you asked
Speaker 8: everyone whose mother's or uncle's funeral he attended. In the
Speaker 8: last forty years, he has always come back to Scranton.
Speaker 7: He really is.
Speaker 2: So he's helped to nurture those ties.
Speaker 8: Throughout from the very moment he left me. He really
Speaker 8: his status Scrantonian. So yeah, he makes it easy on
Speaker 8: us when people ask, how is he really from scratch
Speaker 8: making yes, the answer is yes, go down the street next.
Speaker 2: Well, he always drops his address in his old address
Speaker 2: when he was a kid in the stump speech. I
Speaker 2: know that's part of the deal here. So let's talk
Speaker 2: about issues for a moment, because you're here dealing with
Speaker 2: reality and that's kind of been the theme of our program.
Speaker 2: Mayors don't have the luxury of fooling around the way
Speaker 2: lawmakers in Washington do, and so here you are to
Speaker 2: the rescue. I guess we can say, dealing with a
Speaker 2: lot of the same issues that we're talking about here
Speaker 2: in Washington, from inflation to reproductive rights, a lot of
Speaker 2: the things that voters are going to make their decisions
Speaker 2: based on in the next year. We're just scrant and
Speaker 2: fall there, and let's start with the issue of inflation.
Speaker 2: We have a new Bloomberg poll out today showing the
Speaker 2: economy is going to still be no matter what you think,
Speaker 2: the number one issue in this campaign. Do you hear
Speaker 2: about high prices, about high costs, about gasoline now to
Speaker 2: the extent that you may have for a year.
Speaker 8: Ago, We don't hear as much as a year ago.
Speaker 8: But I think that's in part because people have gotten
Speaker 8: accustomed to some of these higher prices. Food prices have
Speaker 8: gone down, thankfully, that was really rough last year. Right now,
Speaker 8: though we've had we've seen water and sewer increases in
Speaker 8: Scranton that are unsustainable for a lot of our families.
Speaker 8: So that is very much on people's minds at the city.
Speaker 8: We've tried to do what we can to keep those
Speaker 8: issues out in front. We've used our Rescue Plan money
Speaker 8: to do things like our Wage boost program, where we
Speaker 8: help small businesses increase their wages for their employees to
Speaker 8: where the market. So let's say you're paying a factory
Speaker 8: line worker fourteen dollars, but that Pennsylvania average is eighteen.
Speaker 8: We're going to pay you that four dollars. We're gonna
Speaker 8: give you that four dollars to for the first year.
Speaker 8: We're gonna split the difference with you the second year.
Speaker 8: Just need you to guarantee in the third year that
Speaker 8: you're going to keep that wage at that higher level.
Speaker 8: So we're trying to do some tailored programming in the
Speaker 8: City of Scranton to help people meet those costs and
Speaker 8: help keep our small businesses alive.
Speaker 2: We've spoken to your counterparts from Cincinnati to Fort Collins
Speaker 2: to Allentown not too far away. I suppose over the
Speaker 2: last couple of hours and ask them, you know, what
Speaker 2: are the issues that people are talking to you about
Speaker 2: the most, that you're most concerned with. And there's been
Speaker 2: a steady theme housing. Housing shortage is scranting any different.
Speaker 8: It is absolutely the top set now.
Speaker 2: On a thirty year mortgage, and you don't have enough
Speaker 2: places to.
Speaker 8: Live, right, And we're continuing to see our real estate
Speaker 8: transfer tax go There's still a lot of people buying
Speaker 8: in Scranton. Our housing prices are low relative to the
Speaker 8: rest of the country, which is a double edged sword.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 8: It's good for our economy, it's good for our tax revenues,
Speaker 8: but those people that are selling, I'm not sure where
Speaker 8: they're going. And we do have a shortage of houses.
Speaker 8: We've got you know Section eight lines that are you
Speaker 8: eight hundred names long?
Speaker 2: Wow, we have a lot.
Speaker 8: Of places to go at homelessness and housing looks different
Speaker 8: in Scranton than it might in some of West Coast cities.
Speaker 8: You might not see it and when you drive around,
Speaker 8: but there's a lot of people living in unsafe housing.
Speaker 8: They might have a roof funded over their head, but
Speaker 8: it might not be a safe place for a family
Speaker 8: to live.
Speaker 2: So it was Washington helping with this. Do you look
Speaker 2: to the Governor's office, then he looks to Washington and
Speaker 2: is anyone answering the phone?
Speaker 8: Absolutely, And that's that's what's been so great about working
Speaker 8: with the Biden administration and the Shapiro administration in Pennsylvania
Speaker 8: is we have leaders in those offices and staff that
Speaker 8: understand that we have issues. No one has the silver bullet,
Speaker 8: but we're working together with HUD working to figure out
Speaker 8: what those programs and those grants look like, to get
Speaker 8: to those solutions, build those senior housing complexes, figure out
Speaker 8: what types of development can work some scattered site where
Speaker 8: city properties, if we can, if we can get seed
Speaker 8: funding in there and have private developers come in and
Speaker 8: either fix up houses or build new ones, get wrap
Speaker 8: around services in as a full court press. But the
Speaker 8: federal and state governments are actually working with local governments
Speaker 8: since the Biden administration. That's been really valuable.
Speaker 2: When you come from Scranton and you're here in the
Speaker 2: bubble in Washington, d C. Well, part of your reality,
Speaker 2: do we not understand? What's your message? What are you
Speaker 2: taking people by the shoulders and telling them so?
Speaker 8: Well, I lived here for seven years, so that is
Speaker 8: helpful though, because I worked at the Treasury Department during
Speaker 8: the financial crisis and I am now in Scranton's going
Speaker 8: federal to local is helpful because I can see what
Speaker 8: does and doesn't work. At the local level, and it's
Speaker 8: great to be able to take it to Washington and say,
Speaker 8: I know that your intention with this white paper, this
Speaker 8: policy is it's right on in terms of what should be,
Speaker 8: but I need to help walk you through what can
Speaker 8: actually be, what a city can implement, what a small
Speaker 8: team can implement. And we work really well, I think
Speaker 8: as mayors with the current administration in closing those gaps
Speaker 8: between the aspirational policy and the on the ground implication implementation.
Speaker 2: We're spending time with the mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania, which
Speaker 2: you've heard about a few times on this show, the
Speaker 2: home of, of course, the President of the United States,
Speaker 2: Page Cognety. You've been to Washington, back to Scranton. Would
Speaker 2: you come back to Washington.
Speaker 8: I love it here. It's a wonderful place. But we're
Speaker 8: very committed to scritch And my husband.
Speaker 2: Has supposed to say, I love my job.
Speaker 8: Right now, I love my job, Mayor, is.
Speaker 2: The job A lot of people have a real allergy
Speaker 2: to Washington. You don't.
Speaker 8: You can make so much change here, but you have
Speaker 8: to listen. And that's the point, right is you have
Speaker 8: the ability of the federal government to give out life
Speaker 8: changing money to cities and to families into different programs,
Speaker 8: but you have to know how to use it and
Speaker 8: know how to allocate it. So there's a great, very
Speaker 8: great power to do good in Washington, but you've got
Speaker 8: to be able to make it realistic.
Speaker 2: Well that's right, someday, but we're someday. Okay. In the meantime,
Speaker 2: you never stay more than two nights, right.
Speaker 8: You get out of It's like Vegas, right, you got
Speaker 8: to go in and out.
Speaker 2: I heard something about that. Yes, exactly. It's wonderful to
Speaker 2: meet you, Paige Cognetti. Thank you for being part of
Speaker 2: Bloomberg City Lab. Are you dropping business cards for the
Speaker 2: rest of the day or what's the plan?
Speaker 8: Yeah, we're going to do a little bit more. I
Speaker 8: had a meeting on the hill earlier and we'll do
Speaker 8: a little bit more of that. Get a lobby for
Speaker 8: the city and make sure that we get those federal
Speaker 8: dollars as we're talking about.
Speaker 2: Yes, of course, right, calling up old friends and old favors.
Speaker 2: Maybe thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. Make
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can
Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC, at one
Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time at bloomberg dot com.