WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 13 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.119 Check it on Man No Down Man Thursday morning, December one. 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:17.080 It is the Beating the Book podcast Megabod week number 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.400 thirteen in the National Football League. I cannot believe it 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.360 is December. Cannot believe it is week thirteen. It's Kill 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:27.040 Alexander as always staples of the show alongside to my 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.840 left here live at the d where we always do 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:32.760 our megapods. It is the vice president of Operations and 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:36.280 Circus Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary co host of odds on 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:41.880 at Visan Michael Palmiery. Good morning to you, like Palmiery 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:44.440 runs the Dairy Queen and Nagara does. He's one of 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:49.040 he's one of the visas. Uh, very loyal subscribers like Palmier. Yeah, yeah, 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:51.720 that's why I went Palmier instead of Palmetto like good good, 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:54.240 good morning. Yeah, we have time for this. And that's 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:56.440 Todd wishing of everybody from his mom's core cadeck And 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:58.840 we're told that his mom is not home and she 0:00:58.880 --> 0:01:01.080 didn't put anybody else in charge of the house. This 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:06.640 is said he said I could do whatever I want. 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:08.600 Did she did? She did? She put a hold on 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:13.720 the Pittsburgh Gazette. Uh, posts that we don't get that. Sorry, 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:19.080 she hold this is great. God wish that everybody. Dad. 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:21.560 Are you doing, man, killy? Why didn't you tell everybody 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:23.480 why we're gonna have to go fast because of your 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:25.920 beautiful Well, so here's what I did. I'm not a 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:29.039 bright individual case you were wondering. So I'm always dealing 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:31.360 with time zones, and i have seventy five shows I 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:32.920 do a week, and I sleep when I'm not doing 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:37.200 a show, so I'm a little scattered. So I told 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:40.319 Bob because he's in the Mountain time zone. But instead 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:43.880 of just writing, hey, ten thirty like a jackass, I 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:46.600 wrote ten thirty Pacific because I shut my brain off, 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:48.680 so he thought it was an hour from now, and 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:50.720 so now he's trying to figure out the skype and 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.480 so it's all my fault. Are you happy? You might 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.400 have too many irons in the fire, maybe maybe a few, 0:01:56.760 --> 0:01:58.760 But that explained to them that we're gonna have to 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:01.080 run through quickly because we spent half an hour trying 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.760 to fix the text. We're not gonna run through quickly. 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:05.960 We're gonna do our normal survivor thing. When Bob joins us, 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:07.680 he joins is if he joins it so we'll start 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:11.240 with the whole show faster, because let's listen. I'll give 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:14.760 my picks and leave, and then you guys can't continue on. UM, 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:16.519 I don't think it'll be that. I don't think it'll 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:18.400 be much faster. And maybe maybe if you let us start. 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:20.519 I like to get I like to listen to the 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.320 beginning of odds on It's Kine of the greatest shows 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:26.239 on radio. I don't want to miss that second best 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:30.280 PM show, Mike. Let me just say this, Mike Palm 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:33.679 takes takes some Twitter pulse. Seriously, doesn't he could have 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:38.919 been the first four time MITCHI win before MITCHI. Alright, 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:45.400 so Circus Survivor is phenomenal. Twenty eight entries left out 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.200 of four thousand and eight twenty six different people. Best 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:51.239 we can tell with twenty eight different entries, two people 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:54.440 have to under seventy. Couple weeks ago, we all took 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:59.200 me under at the end. Um, But okay, you weren't one. 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.519 I did no listen to the video. Alright, great, I 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:06.639 will check the tap thousand dollars plus intrinsic value of 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:13.120 the remaining twenty eight entries. This is phenomenal. Phenomenal, here's 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.639 what's interesting, and you've broken it down better than I 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:18.800 ever could on your show. But let's get into this week. 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:21.079 Like this week, who are the big favorites? Were the 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.320 biggest favorites the Rams? Nobody hasn't left, Nobody the person 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.079 the two people who had Seattle who took Seattle this 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:28.840 last week with the last two people who had the RAMS, 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:32.919 now one of whom had New England didn't choose them. 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:36.520 Another another big favorite, Indianapolis. Only one left and remember 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:39.960 they're a Christmas game. That person has to take Indianapolis 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:41.920 this week. I think I think so as well. Yeah, 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:44.720 um eight with Ksey, seven with Tampa Bay. Remember they 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:46.920 factor into bonus. If I don't think you can consider, 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.440 do you consider the bonus at this point? I couldn't, 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:52.080 and I think you're crazy if you do. But you know, 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.400 one of the two people with the two entries has 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:56.520 Kansas City available, one in Tampa Bay and the other, 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.880 so they're the real test. Will they do that or 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:02.840 they go to Philadelphia on both which could be the 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:05.640 neutron bomb this week. It could be Remember Philly was 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:08.120 the biggest knockoff punch against the Giants, and Todd was 0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:12.440 right about that he called that game correctly. Um, I 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:15.200 think people will use ten with Minnesota there at Detroit. 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.320 Detroit's played like every other game horrifically and they're due 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:21.159 for this one. Yeah. Arizona seventeen people have them there 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:22.920 an eight point favorite at the Bears, but they're there 0:04:22.920 --> 0:04:27.000 against the Colts on Christmas. There's uh, there's one entry 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:30.240 that has there's one person that has two entries. He 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:34.239 has both San Francisco and Tennessee. If he gets to Christmas, 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:37.520 does he do the double option to survive at that point? 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:42.880 I think you have to. But are we even getting there? Todd, 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:44.840 here's a question for you, yes or no? Will there 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:48.520 be someone go twenty and oh, yes or no? I 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:50.800 would probably go with no. Yeah. I don't think they're 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:53.640 still too far away. This one, This one is so 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:55.440 much different than last year. Last year when there was 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:58.280 plus and I got to December last year and I 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:01.679 lost with a seventeen point favorite Rams at home against 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:07.480 the Jets. That literally the next Raiders true that literally 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:08.920 I would have the next three weeks I would have 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:10.120 won too. So it was literally the only one I 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:12.480 ended up losing this year. I would have I lost 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:16.400 on Buffalo and Jacksonville. I'd have lost three times since then, right, Like, 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.480 this is the fact that these are still alive, these 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:24.200 twenty six people is incredible. And one of them is 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:26.720 is your friend Joe Peter. That's correct, Joe Peter is 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:29.760 one of them. Yes, And I would imagine and crack 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:30.880 and I got into this a little bit on the 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:34.520 numbers game. Do these folks start hedging away? Is it 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:37.080 too long of a runway still to hedge away? Did 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.520 you listen to Derek at all at Nightcap about chopping 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:42.240 and how the chopp is impossible? Oh? So this is 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:44.960 I'm glad we brought this up because what you said 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:47.440 the other week might have confused summarized what he said. 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:50.400 So let's first get what I said that if people 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:53.480 wanted to share information, they could let Jeff Benson know that. Yes, 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:55.479 which is a little different than what Joe said, Jeff 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:57.640 Benson reach out and give a proposition to everyone. Did 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:00.640 you say that reach out? He did to have Jeff 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:03.080 Benson queried the remaining entries if they were interested in 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:05.560 doing this job, not give him the other thirty nine 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:08.839 people's information, which is different. Right, But Derek then said 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.720 to me, it can't happen. And here's why, because well, one, 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:14.640 we're going to pay out however, like a poker tournament, 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.000 and then your deal is your deal. But here's the 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.440 other thing. Everybody lives in different states with different taxes, 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:22.120 and then the gift tax is the big thing. You 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:24.440 know that if I give you more than fifteen thousand 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.040 dollars in a given year, the giver gets taxed. Think 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.160 about that. So if one guy would have won it 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.520 and said I'm gonna give everybody else one point five million, 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:33.119 let's just say they want to do it a forty 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:36.480 weight chop, the guy gets six six million, and then 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:39.440 he's gonna get taxed on five point eight million. I mean, 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:42.760 so that right you guys. By the way, as long 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:45.880 as there's two people that have two entries, there's not 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.600 gonna be a chop anyway. But I do think that 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:51.360 what you said the other week on the megapod could 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:53.720 have been misconstruction. I think so too. Maybe I wasn't clear, 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:56.440 but and I think everybody's fine with what you're saying now. 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:58.680 I think I don't think anybody doesn't understand that. By 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:00.720 the way, the Great Dr Bob is here, is that right, 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:04.479 Bob stole. Are you there, Yeah, I'm here finally, Bob. 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:08.920 I apologize for my time zone deficiencies, my fault for 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:11.720 writing the word pacific. My brain was shut off. We're 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:15.480 happy to have you. Oh I'm frustrated as hell, Gil, 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:21.720 but I'm gonna I'm gonna handicap angry now maybe that hey, 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:25.320 angry handicapping coming. We're just finishing our Survivor discussion. So 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.240 there's twenty By by the way, Bob, there's twenty eight 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:35.800 entries left in Circus six million dollar um and Survivor. 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:40.559 That what started with four thousand eighty entries, twenty eight left. Wow. 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:44.240 And last year we started with thirteen nine and ended 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.200 with thirty five. Made it all the way thirty five. 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:47.960 I was wondered how much there's an extra week and 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.960 then there's the extra Christmas. Obviously, this year we have 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:53.520 twenty eight now with four thousand eighty as a start, 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:58.320 gonna be awesome and Circu million um there's the leader 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:00.320 is one in four and still has a game and 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:02.800 a half lead because the consensus was one in four. 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:04.880 And if you think the Vikings, they were the sixth 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:07.240 most popular pick. The top six picks were one in 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:09.720 five I know somebody went two and three. It is 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:12.440 like I picked up a game. Yeah for forty three 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.480 and seventeen week? What are you? What is your record? Todd? 0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:19.400 I believe I'm thirty three and seven. Forty three and 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:23.360 seventeen leads it. There's two people at forty one, eighteen 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:26.720 and one, and then another ten people at um forty 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:29.160 one and nineteen, and then at the bottom it's like 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.360 nineteen and forty one is the lowest score so far 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:34.480 for the Booby Prize for the year. There's so this 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.240 is the final week of quarter three. There's one player 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:40.880 fourteen in one and there's twelve players I believe twelve 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:42.679 or fourteen that are thirteen and two and on the 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.280 bottom and it's it's the mirror. There's one player one 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:47.280 in fourteen and twelve or four whatever that number is, 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:49.199 that are two in thirteen. Yeah, I might know that 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:52.920 person to really um, okay, bomb, are you did you 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:54.959 do any Survivor your loser pools or what did you 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:58.160 do this year? But you know, um, I started doing 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:01.720 Survivor about eight years ago and the pool had about 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:04.240 three hundred people and at the time I won the 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:08.120 first year, I don't know he's a cake. Two years later, 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:10.839 I won again, which is almost impossible, and the pool 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.960 was like three hundred and fifty people then, and then 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:16.079 I've been hitting a dry spell ever since. Normally I 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:18.319 get to about week fourteen or fifteen. I have two 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:21.280 entries this week. I craped out early. But I have 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.240 a friend that's in and he's he seeks my advice. 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:27.480 And he was going between Dallas and Baltimore last week, 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.520 and our angle was, don't do Dallas just for game 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.560 theory purposes, because every a lot of people are on Dallas. 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:37.319 So he said, let's do Baltimore. And so I'm like, 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:41.480 thank god Dallas lost, because if Dallas, little one in 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.000 Baltimore were lost. After giving him that advice, I had 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:47.240 owed him a lot. But he's still alive and seeking 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:50.200 my advice again this week, so we'll see. I might 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.360 give it. I might we We're looking at Minnesota as 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:54.800 a possibility for him, but I've been out long time. 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:56.720 This year, I did a whole thing on a numbers game. 0:09:57.280 --> 0:09:59.960 They got a got I guess like seven thousand view 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.240 is about how I did a thought exercise with Jeff 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:04.480 Parl's my producer, and I was like a hundred thirty 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:07.920 three people took Dallas, and Jeff had said it. Jeff 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:09.760 was on record to saying I hate the Raiders today, 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:11.840 and I said, if if you knew a hundred thirty three, 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:13.719 we're gonna take Dallas. By the way, the point of 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:16.200 that was, you could estimate that about eighty would even 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:18.360 before the numbers came out that it was a d 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:21.800 He said, no, I still wouldn't take the Raiders. And 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.640 I'm like, this is the problem with people playing Survivor. 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:27.000 They don't get the game theory. There was eighty two 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:31.800 that could have taken Dallas, add and you could estimate it. Yeah, alright, Uh, 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:34.199 we are on a on a shorter time because of 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.520 my error, and Mike's got odds on to do with 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:38.520 them all, show them all. Will hopefully be the guest 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:41.240 next week on our regular weekly guest Frank Schwab from 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.160 me who sports, is actually gonna be in studio because 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:46.640 he's in Vegas. So we're sweetig show today. All right, Uh, 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:48.719 you know I'm gonna I'm gonna take my normal a 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.720 lot amount of time to do my full detailed analysis, 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:57.640 so just to warn us, Okay, okay, well let's start 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:01.440 real quick Todd with how we did last week. Everybody 0:11:01.520 --> 0:11:05.360 went two in one. Uh so the standings stayed the same. 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:08.640 As far as games back, really half a game back 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:12.280 from myth Mike is at seventeen and nineteen, Mike's at 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:15.200 seventeen eighteen and one, and I am just a game 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:17.599 and a half back at sixteen and twenty. On the 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:21.200 teaser side, there were two losers. Those two people are 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.800 sitting in far Canada. Gillen might hear their names. They 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:27.439 both thought Dallas was gonna win with the teaser, and 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.600 I survived with the teaser of the Pats in Miami. 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:33.079 You guys still don't believe in the Pats. I have 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:35.200 forty one to one to win the Super Bowl. Thirty 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:37.520 one to win the Super Bowl really tells me who 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:40.320 have they beaten? They've beaten the teams that have been 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:43.920 placed in front of them, So be careful for Bill 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.800 Belichick has it bold combined record of New England's beating 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.559 opponents thirty eight and fifty three. For those of you 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:55.760 score Buffaloff combined record of those teams they've beaten thirty 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:58.160 one and forty seven. Oh yeah, I didn't hear you. 0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:00.640 The experiment about Buffalo's thinking, well, I don't know, I 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.000 don't have. My only two futures are on the Titans 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:04.840 and on the Colts. Those are my only two futures. 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:06.800 But you do agree that pages are going to be 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.280 in the playoffs, and if anything, it's going to be 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:13.000 they'll be in the playoffs. They'll play in the playoffs. Absolutely, 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:14.640 this will be a great This will be a very 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:16.600 interesting Monday night game where I think they have the advantage, 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.559 but we'll get into that any Thursday night thoughts. Cowboys 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.760 and Saints. We learned this morning officially Alvin Kamara is 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:26.120 out for the Saints, as are there two linemen Um 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:31.520 Armstead and Rama check is out, so they are depleted. 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.280 I think we're getting a Taysom Hill start today. Amari 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.080 Cooper is with the Cowboys off the COVID list. Bob 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.160 Any play on this game. I got in on the 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.600 Cowboys last night. Minus five. It's six everywhere, at least 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.760 six and a half now, II lean with Eileen with 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:51.480 Dallas now after the injury adjustments. Um, the injury adjustments 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:53.920 ended up being close to about a point and a half. 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.120 Pretty big adjust and I think the true line should 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.280 be Dallas by eight or so. So I think it's 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:01.880 a pretty good guy on Dallas. But I didn't bet it. 0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:05.439 Didn't bet it though, you guys, I'm gonna tease him 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.600 once again. I'm gonna tease Dallas. Um, just like last week. 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.040 You know I can't blame Meg returns to its vomit, 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:14.440 the pick returns to the buyer, and the burnt fools 0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:16.839 bandaged finger goes wobbling back to the fire. Wow, what 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.800 has happened? I'm a little che I love kipling, your 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:25.679 great imterialist. My mom used to say, Rue, That's why 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:30.040 I never miss a minute of odds on daily kind 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.920 of thing, Todd. Any thoughts on tonight's game? I I 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:36.880 hate this game. I'll be betting in any game as usual. 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.880 I just don't like it and I hate this game. Yeah, 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.400 I'm on the Cowboys again. Minus five got that last 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.640 night before the move here. Hopefully that works out all right, 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.760 So let us begin with best bets, Bob. We start 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:52.920 with you your first for week thirteam, sir. I not 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.920 that I don't believe in New England. I just like 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:59.080 Buffalo here. My numbers like Buffalo, even if even if 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.880 you use New England improved defense since they've switched the 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:05.280 zone more zone than man demn six games ago and 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:10.160 they've won all six. Um. Uh, they've been a little fortunate. UM. 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:12.640 In this one against the Chargers, they were out gained 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:14.960 by one point seven yards for play and won that one. 0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:17.760 In Week nine, they only had two hundred and seventy 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.040 three total yards and got ten of their points on 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:24.120 Sam Donald's interceptions. That would have been a closer game. Uh. 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:28.160 They caught the Falcons on a short week Thursday night 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:30.520 game with a rookie head coach had never prepared for 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:33.080 a Thursday game, and the Falcons were out without their 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:35.840 three three of the top four receivers, and then they 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:37.880 beat the crap out of them. So I say there's 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:39.920 been a little bit of like the last week Titans 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.280 were out, didn't have Henry in their top two receivers, 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:45.840 so they did played better than they should have even 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:48.520 after adjusting for all that stuff. But now they take 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.520 on Buffalo. Buffalo, they didn't have Tremaine Edmunds last week 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:55.000 the linebacker, and they gave up a lot of running 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:57.800 yards as against Indianapolis. They gave up two undred sixty 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:00.560 four yards Indianapolis. But when Edmunds has been in the game. 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:02.800 He's got a really high stop right over ten percent 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:05.360 when he's played this year. Buffalo is only allowing three 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:07.560 point six yards per carry. But I think they'll be 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:09.800 able to stop what New England likes to do, which 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:12.640 is run the ball and play ball control. There's gonna 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:16.120 be high winds Monday night in Buffalo. I trust Josh 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:20.280 Allen's arm over mac Jones's arm um, but I think 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:23.080 it's a tough match of for New England's offense. There's 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.080 one thing I like here in general, this is something 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:30.400 you should listen to. Uh, high scoring teams are relatively 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:33.800 better at home, and good defenses are also relatively better 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.840 at home. When a tea maveraging twenty four points or 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.040 more is at home from game seven on, so they've 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.680 established that they're a good offensive team and they're facing 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:44.240 a team that's a lot of less than eight team 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:46.720 points per game through seven through six games or more. 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.440 There's been four over four hundred such games like that. 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.720 And you know, going back in my database of the 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.440 time the high scoring home team covers the spread against 0:15:56.440 --> 0:16:00.160 the good defensive team at home. Now, if the line 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.680 is less than minus fourts, you're talking about a competitive game. 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:05.120 It's one thirty three and seventy seven against the spread, 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:08.280 So there's some technical stuff that favors a good home, 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:10.560 a good a good offensive team at home against a 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:13.560 good defensive team. And my ratings like Buffler, I think 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.080 go On should be at least four points, So I'm 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:18.720 going with the Bills. Todder Yapo. Is that one of 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.480 your picks on New England? No? No, I actually, if 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:23.360 if any if I had to bet this game, I 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:26.120 would take Buffalo too. I think, you know, I agree 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:28.280 with everything that Dr Bob said. I also think that 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.280 how many weeks in a row in the NFL you 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:35.360 just continued to put a game after game after game 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:39.120 after game with no mistakes, no problems. It's sooner or 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:43.000 later you know something happened. So I certainly don't want 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:44.760 any part of this game, and if I did, I 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:47.080 would take Muffler. What's interesting is that, is that, Bob, 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.320 that you went with the high winds is most people, 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:50.880 when they say, oh, it's gonna be twenty three miles 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.280 per hour wins, they would then the next thing they 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:55.520 would say, is, oh, well, New England's running game is 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.280 better than that of Buffalo, so that would swing them 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:02.120 towards New England. But you're not saying that, oh, because 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.720 Buffalo can stop the run open New England. But would 0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:08.680 you rather have in the game like that? Would you 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.720 rather have josh Alan crambling around and getting yards with 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:18.280 his feet? Yeah? Alright, no makes sense. Yeah, Mikey, give 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:21.959 me the Raiders two and alf short week for Washington, 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:24.800 travel across the country, no kicker. Raiders get the extra 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:28.080 rest off playing off Thanksgiving, and and look, Washington goes, 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:32.159 Washington goes, Cowboys, Eagles, Cowboys Eggles, Giants. Everything else is 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:33.720 in their division. It's still in front of them. If 0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:35.280 they lose this game, I'll later two and a half. 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.320 The only thing with this is the you're saying you 0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:41.600 need a kicker. Is that what you're saying could be affective. 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:44.840 The only thing with this is Waller hasn't been limited 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:47.639 in practice and DeShawn Jackson has not been in Pride 0:17:47.720 --> 0:17:49.280 or the other way around. Waller has not been in 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:51.560 and DeShawn has been limited. So you do have to 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:53.960 worry about that. And that's the problem with a lot 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.200 of these games, like you can't do anything right until 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.159 right before kickoff. Bills in New England, I probably in 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:01.520 the I like Buffalo early that I like New England 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:03.800 and now I probably won't even play it. And the 0:18:03.920 --> 0:18:06.919 Raiders have gone at least three weeks without a disaster happening. 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.360 I mean usually they every one week there's a disaster. 0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:14.880 To number one. My number one pick is I'm going 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.159 back to the well where I always go when I 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:21.760 really need to pick. That is the Jacksonville Jaguars under 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.360 the forty A. Why why do you have to shake 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.720 your head? What's wrong with that? Why? Because it one 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:30.360 last week? This is your Tampa Bay over for this year. 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:34.399 Sometimes you have to just you know, key in on something. 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:37.800 The Jaguars, I believe, are like I think they've only 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.879 gone over two times a year. And the reason is 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:45.760 is it's a really difficult uh statistical analysis in teams 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:49.439 where NFL games play the game and do not score points, 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:54.480 they don't go over and guess what, they don't score point. 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.040 So just look at what happened every week. It's very 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:00.800 difficult to go over if you can't score the ball. 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.000 And against the Rams on the road. Dr Bob just 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:06.200 gave me a great thing where he said that great 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.520 defensive teams are even better at home. So the Rams 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:12.760 are probably the only way this game goes over, because 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:15.240 if it's like Houston game when Rams were up thirty 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:17.800 eight and nothing that decided to quit playing and gave 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.520 him a bunch of back. The only way this goes 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:24.040 over this game is going under the forty game the 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:28.440 Jacks score, they get seven or ten, you're still gonna 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:32.440 make it because the ramball Dogs. And just to clarify, 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:34.440 Buffalo is two and a half and the Raiders or 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:36.119 two and a half, and the previous two games that 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:40.120 we just talked about. Okay, my first listen, there's there's 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:41.399 not a lot of thought to this, but I'm just 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:44.160 gonna give you my guessing lines reaction to the Minnesota 0:19:44.280 --> 0:19:47.920 Vikings Detroit Lions line. I don't understand why this is seven. 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:51.639 If it's because it's Dalvin cook out and Alexander Madison in, 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:54.480 that shouldn't be a reason for it to stay at seven. 0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:58.359 The Lions are not a good football team. There's no 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:02.399 DeAndre Swift now, who is a major portion of the 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:05.480 offense of any semblance of offense that they did have. 0:20:06.160 --> 0:20:08.600 The Vikings have lost a total all all six of 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.720 their games by a total of twenty six points. I 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:14.240 know they were in a dog fight with Detroit the 0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:17.399