Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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Speaker 2: Hi, everybody, Welcome to the Buck Brief. Special guest on
Speaker 2: this episode, our friend Porter Stansbury is here. He is
Speaker 2: the founder, chairman and CEO of market Wise, which is
Speaker 2: the biggest independent publisher of financial research anywhere out there.
Speaker 1: Also very pleased to tell you that.
Speaker 2: I am doing a launching a newsletter with market Wise
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four, so a partner as well as
Speaker 2: an advisor on all these things. Porter.
Speaker 1: Great to see you, Hey, Buck, It's always great to
Speaker 1: see you. I just want to congratulate you on an
Speaker 1: incredible career. Thank you. I think I saw you in
Speaker 1: sitting out of conference maybe a decade ago. Yep.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I didn't have a job in radio and he's like,
Speaker 2: I think this guy might be good at radio, and
Speaker 2: now with Clay we're co hosting the biggest radio show
Speaker 2: in the country. So thank you very much for.
Speaker 1: Being a laby. I told the audience, I said, this
Speaker 1: guy is going to be an absolute star.
Speaker 2: Watch his career, and he was right, and this is
Speaker 2: why I have him on the podcast, by the way,
Speaker 2: so he could tell you all very nice things, which
Speaker 2: I appreciate greatly. So Porter, I mean, you're you're a
Speaker 2: guy who has made incredible calls over your career in
Speaker 2: the market and that's obviously what folks over at market
Speaker 2: wise do. I wanted to dive in because you wrote
Speaker 2: something this is in my inbox, uh from from you
Speaker 2: about not only what's going on now with Boeing, one
Speaker 2: of the most well known American probably best known American
Speaker 2: engineering related company. Maybe gees up there, but you saw
Speaker 2: this coming. Tell me what you saw a year ago,
Speaker 2: and then we can get into what's happening now.
Speaker 1: I think it's a fascinating situation because Boeing, among other
Speaker 1: large American corporations, has been one of the folks who
Speaker 1: has most fervently embraced the whole DEI mythology if you will,
Speaker 1: the idea that that you can have a better corporation
Speaker 1: of better business if you give opportunities that on a
Speaker 1: pure metocracy would have belonged to someone else. You give
Speaker 1: those opportunities to someone of color, or someone who's a woman,
Speaker 1: or someone who has confused sexuality issues that somehow the
Speaker 1: DEI theory is that that'll make your products better, that'll
Speaker 1: make your customers happier, that'll make your profits bigger. But
Speaker 1: what we see as investment analysts time and time again
Speaker 1: that firms that embrace this kind of DEI I think,
Speaker 1: or the general ESG. They call it mindset, actually perform
Speaker 1: poor going forward, in part because their cultures get wrecked
Speaker 1: and buck I'm sure you can understand this. If you're
Speaker 1: working with a group of people and suddenly promotions and
Speaker 1: raises and bonuses start getting doled out because of factors
Speaker 1: other than performance, it has a really shockingly bad impact
Speaker 1: on the culture. It leads to all kinds of bad
Speaker 1: things happening. But the most notable thing is that the
Speaker 1: truly talented people are going to leave and go work
Speaker 1: for SpaceX, which is what they've done, and the people
Speaker 1: you get left with are the people who are really
Speaker 1: good at corporate infighting and corporate politics, but not necessarily
Speaker 1: good at all at engineering. And as a as a
Speaker 1: part of all that, I'd like to I'd like to
Speaker 1: call your attention to the woman who is currently the
Speaker 1: the chief operating officer at Boeing and UH. Her name
Speaker 1: is Stephanie, and she has a thirty year career as
Speaker 1: an accountant. So she was the you know, the top
Speaker 1: accountant at Boeing Airplanes and and she has a degree
Speaker 1: from Southwestern Missouri State and she has an NBA hold on.
Speaker 1: I got to reference my notes for this because I'd
Speaker 1: never heard of this school. Oh, this intellectual powerhouse, Lyndon
Speaker 1: Wood University. So so what you've got here as a
Speaker 1: as a as a female with no engineering background, And
Speaker 1: I'll go public with this. I'll bet one thousand dollars
Speaker 1: that Stephanie cannot change the oil in her car. But
Speaker 1: she is the director of operations for Boeing, which is
Speaker 1: the most important engineering firm in the United States by
Speaker 1: a mile, and one of the most important companies in
Speaker 1: the world. The whole global transportation infrastructure requires Boeing aircraft
Speaker 1: and they need to be well made and safe.
Speaker 2: Well, this is this is in the headlines obviously porter
Speaker 2: because a piece of register bring everyone up to speed
Speaker 2: for this week, A piece of a Boeing seven thirty
Speaker 2: seven to nine Max fuselage tore off and people can
Speaker 2: see it. I mean, there's video of this from the
Speaker 2: plane from the inside tore off mid flight during an
Speaker 2: Alaska Airlines flight and.
Speaker 1: This is this is this is not this actually is
Speaker 1: not new. They've had They've had consistent problems with their
Speaker 1: aircraft for at least the last six years, including too
Speaker 1: fatal crashes, and they've had an engineering culture that was
Speaker 1: gutted after the merger with McDonald Douglas in ninety seven.
Speaker 1: But Buck, I want to get to a really important
Speaker 1: point about this, would why on earth would you have
Speaker 1: someone with no engineering background whatsoever with degrees from Southwest
Speaker 1: Missouri State and Lindenberg sorry Lyndon Wood University. I don't
Speaker 1: think that is the sharpest engineer or tool and drawer.
Speaker 1: So why would Stephanie get one of the most important
Speaker 1: jobs in engineering. Well maybe because she is the executive
Speaker 1: sponsor of Boeing's Women Inspiring Leadership. What's that, Buck, It's
Speaker 1: a group that's dedicated to increasing gender diversity awareness and that,
Speaker 1: by the way, is right off of Boeing's website. So
Speaker 1: what is going on at Boeing is you have a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of people who are being promoted and getting
Speaker 1: opportunities because of their political orientation or because of the
Speaker 1: buy in that they have made into ESG and DEI.
Speaker 1: But that is not the way to make safe airplanes.
Speaker 1: We've already seen this happen. There is an Atlas Air
Speaker 1: flight in twenty nineteen that crashed near Houston, where both
Speaker 1: pilots were, in my opinion, most likely there because of
Speaker 1: the role they played in meeting diversity targets, not because
Speaker 1: of their flight awareness or their success in training. And
Speaker 1: both have failed out of training. So this is a
Speaker 1: real issue. And it's not just for companies like Disney,
Speaker 1: which you're performing miserably. I mean, at least a theme
Speaker 1: part can't fall out of the sky. But I'm not
Speaker 1: so sure you'd want to go ride those roller coasters
Speaker 1: right now, because you're going to have a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of people who are not qualified in jobs that are
Speaker 1: very demanding and very technical. And this is not just
Speaker 1: going to impact Boeing, It's going to impact our whole country.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you about how the shareholders you
Speaker 2: think of some of the companies out there have every
Speaker 2: at you know, whether we're talking about Budweiser or Disney
Speaker 2: or you know what's going on with Boeing. We'll get
Speaker 2: to this though in one second. You know, is there
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Speaker 2: are now paid for by Palm Beach Research Group. All right, Porter,
Speaker 2: the it feels like in the last year or so,
Speaker 2: I mean you wrote this piece. I saw the piece,
Speaker 2: and you know we revisited it today. I mean I
Speaker 2: saw you saw it when it came out. You visited
Speaker 2: today about Boeing and what's going on there as a
Speaker 2: corporate culture. But we've had a number of very high
Speaker 2: profile instances, whether it's the backlash at Budweiser a lot
Speaker 2: of pressure on Disney. When does corporate America you think,
Speaker 2: start to listen to the voices out there that are
Speaker 2: shouting stop doing things that aren't about good business but
Speaker 2: you think are about good social justice.
Speaker 1: Well, I think that there's a lot of reasons for
Speaker 1: investors to have made that decision already, and I think
Speaker 1: that's happening. But I think you're going to see something further,
Speaker 1: which is when planes start crashing, When when Disney theme
Speaker 1: starts fall apart. You know, there's there's worse things that
Speaker 1: can happen than a failed movie. There's worse things that
Speaker 1: can happen. Then, you know, changing the the snow White
Speaker 1: film to become a you know, a play on diversity,
Speaker 1: and those things are going to impact our entire economy.
Speaker 1: It's it's it's I think when when this stuff, when
Speaker 1: this rot gets into health and safety, that's when you're
Speaker 1: going to see a really big political shift. And the
Speaker 1: chieft is already underway when it comes to Boeing, though
Speaker 1: buck let me tell you how I found the problem,
Speaker 1: because you might you might not remember, but I first
Speaker 1: started writing about this a year ago in January of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. And what I said back then was
Speaker 1: that Boeing stock was going to collapse. And I said
Speaker 1: that not because I suspected that the planes to start
Speaker 1: falling out of the sky necessarily, but that I saw
Speaker 1: that the entire engineering culture had been gutted and it
Speaker 1: had been replaced, first of all, with accountants from GE.
Speaker 1: And what they know how to do is wreck corporate
Speaker 1: balance sheets. That's what they did to GE and that's
Speaker 1: why I recommended shorting the stock for so many years.
Speaker 1: They did exactly the same thing. The two people who
Speaker 1: are running Boeing now, both the CEO and the CFO,
Speaker 1: are veterans of G's finance group, and they do the
Speaker 1: exact same playbook. What did they do. They took Boeing
Speaker 1: from a company that had net cash on its balance
Speaker 1: sheet to a company that now has fifty two billion
Speaker 1: dollars in debt, and that's including net debt of over
Speaker 1: forty billion dollars. They've got to refinance about twenty five
Speaker 1: billion of that in the next two years. And because
Speaker 1: of the safety issues of their planes, they're also facing
Speaker 1: the potential downgrade into junct bond status if that happens,
Speaker 1: their interest expenses are going to soar, and there's a
Speaker 1: real risk that the company could go bankrupt. Nobody sees that,
Speaker 1: but that's what we were talking about a year ago,
Speaker 1: and we updated that short call in December on the
Speaker 1: twenty second, about three weeks ago. So I just want
Speaker 1: you to realize that my work on Boeing is not
Speaker 1: about this latest news thing. It's about the fact that
Speaker 1: for the last five or six years they've been building
Speaker 1: shoddy aircraft and their balance sheet has been destroyed by
Speaker 1: their leadership. And that's why I started focusing on it,
Speaker 1: because the bad choices I could see looking at the
Speaker 1: finances of the company have also flowed through now to
Speaker 1: the engineering of the company. It's a very serious matter,
Speaker 1: not just for Boeing shareholders, but also for the bond
Speaker 1: markets and for our country's transportation networks.
Speaker 2: What do you think the future then holds for not
Speaker 2: just Boeing, but the US aerospace industry in general if
Speaker 2: this has happened. I mean, I know, for example, you're
Speaker 2: talking about the people that make the planes. Well, I
Speaker 2: know a bit about people who go into the planes.
Speaker 2: I have friends and colleagues who you know, got a
Speaker 2: lot of people former military. They become the airline pilots
Speaker 2: are the ones flying these things, and they say the
Speaker 2: DEI wokeness problem. I mean, look, United is bragging about
Speaker 2: how they have changed, you know, the incoming class of
Speaker 2: pilots to be more diverse. But I also know that
Speaker 2: the training programs that pilots are going through so they
Speaker 2: can meet the standards necessary for training are being lowered.
Speaker 2: That is happening. So the people that are moving the plane,
Speaker 2: you're telling me that the people making the planes are
Speaker 2: losing a step or ten. And the people piloting the
Speaker 2: planes right now are also not the same caliber than
Speaker 2: what people have been used to for a long time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a very serious matter. And again, if you
Speaker 1: look at the kind of people that United has been
Speaker 1: using to fill their new pilot academy, right they have
Speaker 1: intentionally partnered with some of the lowest performing schools in
Speaker 1: the country in terms of SAT scores and academic achievement
Speaker 1: because they're the right color. That's just racism. And you
Speaker 1: know when you combine racism and Marxism, you're not going
Speaker 1: to improve the Marxist track record.
Speaker 2: Well, also, you know, we can, finally, I think, have
Speaker 2: a discussion about merit and standards and hiring in a
Speaker 2: more direct way than in a long time porter because
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court came out and said, Okay, you guys
Speaker 2: at Harvard, which is a whole other conversation, what's going
Speaker 2: on there, But you guys at Harvard have been just
Speaker 2: straight up discriminating against Asian kids. That was what got
Speaker 2: this whole thing started. That's unconstitutional, that's illegal. You can't
Speaker 2: actually do that, and you can't continue this system of
Speaker 2: pretending you're not discriminating by race when you are. Well,
Speaker 2: that's in college admissions. But it's starting now to filter
Speaker 2: I think through the broader American political and an economic landscape,
Speaker 2: which is a good thing. But I think we're just
Speaker 2: in the early early stages this.
Speaker 1: Sorry I didn't mean interrupt, but I just want you to say,
Speaker 1: hasn't this been the kind of thing that for many
Speaker 1: years people smiled in grandad and said, yes, you know, yes, yes,
Speaker 1: we're all in favor of equal opportunity, and we are right.
Speaker 1: But no one took it. No one took the idea
Speaker 1: seriously that you would get a guy who couldn't even
Speaker 1: legitimately gain admission to a competitive university and tell him
Speaker 1: with a couple of months of pilot training. He's now
Speaker 1: going to be captive captaining you know, a United aircraft
Speaker 1: with two hundred people on board like that. There is
Speaker 1: there is such an absolute, utter lack of judgment. There
Speaker 1: is such a disparity between the theory of DEI or
Speaker 1: ESG and the reality of engineering and flight, and those
Speaker 1: two things are on a conclusion conclusion course. But let
Speaker 1: me just give you a couple of data points to
Speaker 1: make this a little bit more objective. If you were
Speaker 1: in charge of Boeing and you knew that your your
Speaker 1: cumulative net income over the past three years is minus
Speaker 1: twenty billion dollars, and that your twelve month interest expense
Speaker 1: currently is two and a half billion dollars a year,
Speaker 1: and you knew that your credit rating was one notch
Speaker 1: above junk status at Fitch and SMP is, the last
Speaker 1: thing that you would do is to let a door
Speaker 1: fly off of your plane in mid flight. My point
Speaker 1: about all this is the people running the company have
Speaker 1: such poor judgment they can't even run the company. And
Speaker 1: by the way, Bones one of only two major aircraft
Speaker 1: manufacturers in the world, and it is a dominant defense contractor.
Speaker 1: There's plenty of margin to be made in all those
Speaker 1: defense contracts. So how do these guys lose twenty billion
Speaker 1: dollars in the last three years alone, and how did
Speaker 1: they run their balance sheet just in the last five
Speaker 1: years from net cash positive to forty two billion roughly
Speaker 1: and net debt. This is I mean, it's almost is
Speaker 1: if somebody was deliberately trying to destroy this company, because
Speaker 1: you can't make decisions this bad if you weren't trying.
Speaker 2: To port I want to ask you about a different
Speaker 2: kind of landing, the overall landing that people are saying
Speaker 2: might be soft or not for the economy in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four, which is going to affect the political landscape.
Speaker 2: I just wanted to get your broad thoughts on that
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Speaker 2: dot org Porter.
Speaker 1: What are you seeing?
Speaker 2: I mean, I just want to give you the floor
Speaker 2: for for a couple of minutes. Here, what are you
Speaker 2: seeing for next year? Because it feels like the Fed's
Speaker 2: telling us here, Jerome Pal everybody, we win, rates coming down, inflation,
Speaker 2: beaten markets, fine, nothing to see here, no problem?
Speaker 1: What are you seeing? I think that inflation is going
Speaker 1: to be intractable and very difficult to beat because of
Speaker 1: the size of the fiscal deficits the United States. If
Speaker 1: the federal government was able to snap its fingers and
Speaker 1: double double the amount of income tax it collects, it'd
Speaker 1: still be running a deficit. And you've got deficits at
Speaker 1: that size. I just don't believe they can be financed
Speaker 1: through to legitimate means, which means you're gonna have eventually
Speaker 1: more interest rate manipulation, more bond market manipulation, and more
Speaker 1: money printing. It's just a matter of time. And all
Speaker 1: they've done so far really is just change the name
Speaker 1: of what they're calling the MOUNTI printing. You know, they
Speaker 1: used to call it. What do they call it? Easing? Yes, easying? Yeah, sorry,
Speaker 1: there's so much jargon now I can't keep up with
Speaker 1: it all. But the new way that they're doing it
Speaker 1: is they've just been printing money and handing to banks
Speaker 1: that have underwater bond portfolios. So there's something right now
Speaker 1: in the order of seven hundred billion dollars plus worth
Speaker 1: of losses and the banks on their bond portfolios, and
Speaker 1: rather than accept any of those losses and have a
Speaker 1: run on the banking system, the Federal Reserve is just
Speaker 1: printing up money and then giving it to those banks
Speaker 1: as collateral at par so that they don't have to
Speaker 1: suffer the losses that they have.
Speaker 2: Actually, so the banks are effectively hiding losses because they
Speaker 2: got on the wrong side. So what we saw with
Speaker 2: Silicon Valk, for example, people say, hold on a second,
Speaker 2: is this a problem elsewhere? You're telling me you think
Speaker 2: it absolutely is a problem elsewhere.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, if you look at Bank of America,
Speaker 1: just as one example, Bank of America is the largest pository,
Speaker 1: it's the United States. Its entire tangible equity capital be
Speaker 1: wiped out if it had to, if it had to
Speaker 1: write to market where its bond portfolio is. And the
Speaker 1: reason why is because it made enormous investments in bonds
Speaker 1: during the COVID bubble when interest rates are very, very low,
Speaker 1: and then of course the FED had to raise rates
Speaker 1: to stop the resulting inflation from all the money printing
Speaker 1: that they did. So you know, the whole banking system
Speaker 1: is just inside out and there is no way that
Speaker 1: the FED is going to be able to By the way,
Speaker 1: the FED doesn't even want to actually stop inflation. The
Speaker 1: FED wants inflation to be three to four percent a
Speaker 1: year so that they can print print their way out
Speaker 1: of all these government obligations that they can't meet and
Speaker 1: so that they can keep the banking system liquid. And
Speaker 1: so I think that all the talk you're hearing about
Speaker 1: the possibility of deflation or the possibility of a recession
Speaker 1: in terms of nominal GDP as mallarchy, you're not going
Speaker 1: to see any kind of actual recession because they're going
Speaker 1: to print so much money and there is so much
Speaker 1: deficit spending that in nominal terms, the GDP growth is
Speaker 1: going to be probably between four and six percent over
Speaker 1: the next three or four years at least. And how
Speaker 1: will they do that, Well, they just deal with government
Speaker 1: spending and they print the money to do it. So
Speaker 1: that's going to have a really big impact on people's wages.
Speaker 1: And you've already seen that happening, and that's a giant problem.
Speaker 2: And what's your take, border, I mean, you've been watching
Speaker 2: this stuff for a long time. So CPI they measure
Speaker 2: inflation and they tell us that you know, it's not
Speaker 2: bad if you take what food and energy out of it,
Speaker 2: right like so if you need to eat or heat
Speaker 2: your home or put gas in your car or whatever.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's the middle of the winter in a
Speaker 2: lot of places. Other than that, they say inflation is
Speaker 2: not that bad.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you know, I like to use real world
Speaker 1: things for for pricing. And if you go and look,
Speaker 1: for example, at how many how many minimum wage hours
Speaker 1: you have to work to purchase a Ford F one fifty,
Speaker 1: which is the most popular, you know, vehicle in the
Speaker 1: United States and has been for most of my lifetime.
Speaker 1: You know, the hours worked has has doubled or tripled,
Speaker 1: and the price of the S one fifty that you
Speaker 1: can buy at the dealer, I would guess it's up
Speaker 1: fifty percent in the last ten years at least. So,
Speaker 1: you know, we can argue about CPI we want, but
Speaker 1: it has nothing to do with the impact of these
Speaker 1: policies on real people's wages and buck. The saddest part
Speaker 1: for me is the people who are suffering the most
Speaker 1: from these kinds of policies and from DEI and from
Speaker 1: ESG and all this stuff to defund the police, all
Speaker 1: this stuff. The people who suffer the most are the
Speaker 1: people who keep voting for it. It's not hard for
Speaker 1: people like me and you to protect ourselves from inflation.
Speaker 1: We go buy a property, We go buy gold, which
Speaker 1: you can now buy at Costco, which I think is great.
Speaker 1: You know, we go buy bitcoin, we go invest in
Speaker 1: high quality stocks, which we have the training to do,
Speaker 1: and inflation just keeps us floating along. But for the
Speaker 1: people that we employ to you know, to take care
Speaker 1: of our houses and our kids, and to teach school
Speaker 1: and to do the plumbing and the electrical work. All
Speaker 1: the people who actually work in this economy, they're getting
Speaker 1: destroyed there. They're real wages keep going down at three
Speaker 1: to four percent a year, and that doesn't take long
Speaker 1: before you can't afford any kind of standal living. And
Speaker 1: so when societies do that, what happens. You see a
Speaker 1: huge uptick in gambling. You see that in America, the
Speaker 1: enormous rise of online gambling is startling. You see a
Speaker 1: big increase in prostitution because people can't make a living
Speaker 1: in a you know, in a reputable way, so they
Speaker 1: go into that Look at the what's it called the
Speaker 1: Only Fans site where you have every college girl America
Speaker 1: taken off for clothes to make some bitcoin. And the
Speaker 1: other things that you see, of course, are just a
Speaker 1: general breakdown of law and order. You can't even go
Speaker 1: in a drug store anymore and buy deodor, and it's
Speaker 1: all locked up. When or if ever are Americans going
Speaker 1: to say enough of this. We need to have sound
Speaker 1: money and have a return to a real legitimate free
Speaker 1: market system. You know, I don't know the answer to
Speaker 1: that question, but it didn't get me any time soon.
Speaker 1: Not nless people are willing to default on government debt.
Speaker 2: Got to tell you it's classic because you're talking about
Speaker 2: the cost of energy and people being able to forward
Speaker 2: their bills. All the lights in the room where I'm
Speaker 2: recording right now just went off. The TV screen went
Speaker 2: off behid. So I'm not saying it's like word from
Speaker 2: the Almighty or something, but I mean something did just
Speaker 2: happen here where you know, it is tough to keep
Speaker 2: the lights on. As you can see, it is tough
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Speaker 2: So Porter, Actually, I want to know where can people
Speaker 2: go to follow your research more closely? Again, I'm launching
Speaker 2: a newsletter with market Wise this year, but you've already
Speaker 2: got so many great phyticals. But they want to see
Speaker 2: what Porter's thinking.
Speaker 1: Where do they go? Well, that's a great that's a
Speaker 1: great question. And I asked my marketing team where we
Speaker 1: should send people from information on this stuff, and they
Speaker 1: said the best link to use is porters prediction dot com.
Speaker 1: And that's of course my name, Porter, p O R
Speaker 1: t E er porters with an S prediction dot com
Speaker 1: and hopefully all the listeners can spell prediction. But it's
Speaker 1: b R E d I C t i o N
Speaker 1: dot com. Porters Prediction dot com or thanks for letting
Speaker 1: me out. Absolutely, We certainly love to have your listeners stuff. Come,
Speaker 1: come see what we're doing in our in our financial
Speaker 1: news letter.
Speaker 2: Absolutely absolutely, and I'm excited to launch it in the
Speaker 2: new year as well. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Porter. We'll talk to you again soon, okay, but thanks
Speaker 1: for having me