1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. Oh the right hand, 2 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: he hit a punch on the co all right hand, 3 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: right on the chain six eleven, and he's going to stop. 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 2: The fight's over. 5 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 3: Wow, what's your down? 6 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: Did not last Weday? Second? 7 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Sean Zerillo, 8 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: joined today by Eric Raskin and Brian Fonseka to break 9 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: down the boxing match between Errol Spence Junior and Terrence 10 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: Bud Crawford going down this Saturday night at the T 11 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 2: Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card starts at 12 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:42,959 Speaker 2: eight PM. I'm sure walkouts for this main event will 13 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: be closer to eleven PM or midnight Eastern for the 14 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: undisputed welterweight titles. Crawford thirty nine to oh thirty knockouts, 15 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 2: Spence twenty eight oh twenty two knockouts. Very exciting fight 16 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: in the boxing realm. Obviously a big u of secard 17 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: going on this Saturday night as well, but we're going 18 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 2: to turn our attention to this very important welterwait Tilt 19 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 2: and Eric Raskin, Brian, I want to get both of 20 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,960 Speaker 2: your reactions first when you saw this line come out, 21 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 2: because you know, as somebody who handicaps another combat sport. 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 2: Sometimes I like to see the line before I've done 23 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 2: any work. Sometimes I like to do all the work 24 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: and then see the line. So Eric, I want to 25 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: hear from you first. Did you have an idea of 26 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 2: who you were picking before you saw the line? Did 27 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 2: you see the line and have a reaction of, oh, 28 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 2: this might be a little bit off. Well, you know, 29 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 2: how did you come to finding the betting odds for 30 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 2: this match? You know, relative to one you knew about it? 31 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: Spooking. 32 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,199 Speaker 3: So this was a rare fight where the betting line 33 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 3: was available before the fight was signed. They do that 34 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 3: on occasion with the big fights that they think are 35 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 3: probably coming, and so this is one where, probably a 36 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 3: month or so before this fight was made official, I 37 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 3: saw FanDuel had it minus one twelve both ways, which 38 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 3: is basically unheard of in boxing. We get so used 39 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 3: to the minus fourteen hundred guy versus the plus eight 40 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 3: hundred guy that to see a minus one twelve each way, 41 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: it just doesn't happen very often. So that's that's where 42 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 3: it opened before the fight was signed. I liked Crawford 43 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 3: all along. I liked him at that price. I didn't 44 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 3: realize the odds would then proceed to move as much 45 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 3: as they have as we're having this conversation, I'm seeing 46 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 3: him anywhere from minus one forty six all the way 47 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 3: up to minus one ninety, and that is probably more 48 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 3: where this fight belonged than the minus one twelve both 49 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 3: ways where it started. So yeah, I think there was 50 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,359 Speaker 3: definitely value on Crawford when the lines first went up. 51 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, Crawford currently sitting, as you said, around minus one 52 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 2: fifty consensus right now. That's about sixty percent in terms 53 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 2: of an implied probability Spence plus one twenty on the comeback. 54 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: The fight also. 55 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 2: Minus two ten to go to a decision, that is 56 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 2: sixty seven percent implied. As I said, both fighters undefeated, 57 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 2: but both have a healthy number of nonouts on their record. Brian, 58 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 2: same question to you, just your reaction, you know, like 59 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 2: Eric had when you first saw the line. Did you 60 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 2: see it when it was a Pickham price and go, wow, 61 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 2: that's that should certainly be tilted more towards one direction 62 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 2: or did you come around to seeing the odds closer 63 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 2: to where it is at the current line. 64 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 1: I felt like when this first went up and it 65 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: was actually earlier, like months before, maybe even a year 66 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: or so before they because this has been talked about 67 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 1: again boxing being boxing, This fight has been talked about 68 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: for about five years at this point, since they first 69 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: confronted each other in a dingy hallway after a Maurice 70 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: Hooker Alex Sosto fight in late twenty eighteen, and this 71 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: has sort of been a rumored about for a long time. 72 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: COVID came and happened, and you know, we knew we 73 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: weren't going to get it for the time being. But 74 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: as far as the line, yeah, it was minus one twelve, 75 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: minus one thirteen both ways. But I don't recall seeing 76 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: Aero Spence a favorite at all at any point. It 77 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: was even, and I felt like it would move a 78 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: little bit towards Terrace because for reasons, you know, we're 79 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: going to get to it seemed like Terrence Crawford be 80 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: the now favorite. Was how this was going to lean, 81 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: even though I personally have spoken to a bunch of people, 82 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: not fight people necessarily, but fight fans who are just 83 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: favoring Aero Spence for different reasons that we're going to 84 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,280 Speaker 1: get into. But the line wasn't totally shocking at all. 85 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: And for me, I just think that with betting on this, 86 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: the money line is actually something you could look at, 87 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: which isn't the case for a lot of boxing matches 88 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 1: because a lot of times, like Eric said, you got 89 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: a minus fourteen hundred favorite at the morning we're recording 90 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: this now, Yeah, in a way was a minus four 91 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: hundred favorite, and you know, usually the favorite does win 92 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: out all the time, but this time you could actually 93 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: look at the money line agains some decent value. 94 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 2: Before we talk about the specific technical aspects of the fight, 95 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,359 Speaker 2: the way that they match up specifically, I want to 96 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 2: go into each fighter individually and just kind of have 97 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 2: you described their arc type right? You know, are they 98 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 2: a counter puncher, are they a pressure fighter? 99 00:04:59,760 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: You know? 100 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 2: Give me because styles make fights, certainly, and the stylistic 101 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,919 Speaker 2: matchups is going to determine what occurs. But in terms 102 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 2: of how these fighters individually have taken on their competition 103 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 2: leading into this fight, and then also who amongst them 104 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 2: you think has had the more difficult strength as schedule. 105 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 2: So Eric, just going to throw it back to you 106 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 2: first if you could just give me a general arc 107 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 2: type for each of the fighters, and then also who 108 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,559 Speaker 2: you think has had the more difficult path to getting 109 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 2: to this bout sure. 110 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 3: Spence is probably the easier one to describe, and that 111 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 3: he's a little more something we've seen before. He is 112 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 3: a southpaw, which that alone makes him unique, but he 113 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 3: fights in a pretty standard stand up style, boxing behind 114 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 3: the jab, a very busy jab. He's pretty predictable, frankly 115 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 3: from the outside. From the inside a little less so. 116 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 3: But from the outside he's mostly one twos and using 117 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 3: his length and strength, he's a twenty twelve US Olympian. 118 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 3: He has that amateur background and you can see it 119 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 3: in just his basic stylistic approach. Crawford is a little 120 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 3: harder to describe and a little more unique. He's a 121 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 3: switch hitter. He almost always comes out in the orthodox stance, 122 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 3: but does his best work from the south past stance 123 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 3: and just kind of bides his time and waits to 124 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,679 Speaker 3: switch to southball, waits to really get going. He'll often 125 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 3: fall behind a few rounds in a fight. He is 126 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 3: a counter puncher. He isn't that good of an inside fighter. 127 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 3: Even though Spence is longer and stronger, he's probably got 128 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 3: the advantage inside, but from distance, Bud can just do 129 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 3: so many more things he can throw such a variety 130 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 3: of punches and catch you from angles that you don't 131 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,840 Speaker 3: see coming, and mix it up more so. That's kind 132 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 3: of how I handicap the styles. One is more predictable 133 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,599 Speaker 3: and one is less predictable. I would say over the 134 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 3: breadth of his career, going from lightweight to junior welterweight 135 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 3: to now welterweight, Crawford has greater accomplishments. Has fought a 136 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 3: pretty wide range of top quality opposition, but strictly at welterweight, 137 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 3: Spence has the better track record. He's beaten more guys 138 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 3: in this division. He's been in this division his whole 139 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 3: pro career. Best wins close decision over Sean Porter, a 140 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: breakthrough win over kel Brooks several years ago. His most 141 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 3: recent victory fifteen months ago against jordanis Ugus was a 142 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 3: real eye opener. He's got the better welterweight track record 143 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 3: Bud Crawford. I'd say his only really meaningful win at 144 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 3: one hundred and forty seven pounds was his knockout of 145 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 3: Sean Porter. That's maybe the best win on his record period. 146 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 3: But he's spanned three divisions. Spence has been a career 147 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 3: long welterweight. 148 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,239 Speaker 2: Ran I saw you nodding your head. Would you generally 149 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 2: agree with that assessment? Also, how do you view the 150 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 2: size in this matchup, because Bud does have a two 151 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 2: inch reach advantage, He's an inch shorter. As Eric said, 152 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 2: he's moved up through multiple weight classes. Typically I would 153 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 2: favor the fighter on power who has been staying at 154 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 2: the same weight class their whole career. But to my 155 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 2: knowledge and based on the betting odds, Bud's knockout odds 156 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 2: and his chances of getting knock out seem higher. So 157 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 2: does the fact that he's moved up through multiple weight 158 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 2: classes sort of built himself up into being a true welterweight. 159 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 2: You know, change your analysis at any point And do 160 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 2: you agree in terms of the fact that Spence has 161 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 2: had the more difficult schedule as. 162 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 1: A welter Right, there are certain guys where they move 163 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: up in wait and actually get stronger. You know, the 164 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: lack of cutting weight is actually favorable to them. And 165 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: Terrence Crawford is nine to zero at weltsweight, all wins 166 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: by knockout every single one of them. And with Terrence Crawford, 167 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: he also is just more versatile than aero Spence ERL Spence, 168 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: you know how he's going to win this fight. If 169 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: you think he's going to win this fight, he's gonna 170 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: come forward, He's gonna break you down, and it's not 171 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: going to be an absurd level of creativity. It could 172 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: be on the inside offensively, because Ero Spence is one 173 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: of the most dynamic body punchers that there is in 174 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 1: a sport, and that particularly will be one of the 175 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: keys to victory for him. Terrence Crawford can beat you 176 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: with more ways. He's a better counterpuncher, He's a better 177 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: defensive fighter. He could switch orthodox and South Paul give 178 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: you different looks. He's actually better at switching stances than 179 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: anyone in boxing right now. And because of that versatility, 180 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: people also forget that he could fight on the inside 181 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: a little bit. He shouldn't against Aero Spence, but he 182 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 1: could fight the inside a little bit. He also has 183 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: to reach advantage, as you mentioned Sean two inches despite 184 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: being the shorter fighter, which is advantageous to him because 185 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 1: if he's going to beat Aero Spence, he cannot be 186 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 1: on the inside of this fight Aero Spence in terms 187 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: of walking you down, hunting you from the inside, banging 188 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: on the inside, body punching, head hunting a little bit, 189 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 1: but mostly going downstairs upstairs and mixing up his offense. 190 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 1: He's as good as anybody at doing that. And with 191 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: Terrence Crawford, he doesn't have the resume I think the 192 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 1: Aerospence does, but the rounds are not close and he 193 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: doesn't lose rounds, kind of like Hbib Normaga medoff into 194 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: the UFC. He's not a guy that loses rounds. Aero 195 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: Spence had split decision victory over Sean Porter. Terrence Crawford 196 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: fought him a year and a half or so after 197 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: however long that was, and knocked him out. He was 198 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: the only person to knock out Sean Porter, who you know, 199 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 1: was a very like high level welterweight fough Keith Thurman 200 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: fought Danny Garcia, fought pretty much everybody, Adrian Broner when 201 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: Adrian Broner was still good, and with Terrence Crawford, he 202 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 1: just has wiped out pretty much everyone he's fought. He's 203 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,959 Speaker 1: being a couple undefeated champions like Julius and Dongo and 204 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: Victor Postel who were never the same again after fighting 205 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: Terrence Crawford. That's pretty indicative to me, and with Aero Spence, 206 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: I think that he's fought better competition overall, but Terrence 207 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: Crawford has just looked better in some of these victories. 208 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: We even saw Spence struggle a little bit a couple 209 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 1: of different points against Jor Dennis Hugas, who's a strong, 210 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,679 Speaker 1: you know, contender at welterweight. But I think that Terrence 211 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: Crawford will probably beat him a little more soundly than 212 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: Aero Spence did. 213 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 3: I'll just be one thing that you said there, Brian, 214 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 3: of Terrence Crawford doesn't lose round. He does, although it's 215 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 3: usually by choice, but he has had a lot of 216 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 3: fights in his career where he kind of will just 217 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 3: about give away the first three or four rounds before 218 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 3: he really gets revved up, usually again before he switches 219 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,959 Speaker 3: south paw. But you are in good company on one 220 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 3: observation you made there that he's the best at switching 221 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 3: stances in the sport. I just saw Freddie Roach said 222 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 3: the exact same thing, So you're thinking along the same 223 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 3: lines as Freddy Roach. That's a good sign. 224 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, very good sign, you know. 225 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 2: And you guys make an interesting point about Crawford potentially 226 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 2: giving up minutes early the Floyd Mayweather strategy, getting reads 227 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 2: on the opponent and then building is that fight. Do 228 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 2: you think that makes you know Eric just going to 229 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: go right to you and then Brian jumping after. Do 230 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 2: you think that makes them a good live betting target 231 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 2: after the first few rounds? Is that typically how you 232 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 2: would look to bet above Crawford fight Eric? 233 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 3: Yep, I'm thinking to exactly what you're thinking. This was 234 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 3: the sort of the closing comment in the article that 235 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 3: I wrote previewing the fight on sports Handle was that 236 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 3: if you missed the minus one twelve opportunity on bud 237 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 3: and you're not as likely to want to at him 238 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 3: at minus one point fifty, wait a few rounds into 239 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 3: the fight and see if he does what he's done 240 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 3: so many times, which is fall behind maybe three rounds 241 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 3: to one or something. If the if the odds makers 242 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 3: don't really factor in his tendencies and the fact that 243 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 3: he's behind by a few rounds may not mean anything. 244 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 3: If they think it means something, and you start seeing 245 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:21,319 Speaker 3: plus money next next to Terrence Crawford's name, that's a 246 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 3: that's a perfect bet to jump on. This is one 247 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 3: where you want to you want to have your apps 248 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,959 Speaker 3: open as you're watching this fight, same. 249 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 2: Approach for you, Brian. 250 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: I would totally agree with that, because with Terrence Crawford, 251 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: he is literally one of these guys when they say 252 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: downloading information, that's what he does for the first we'll 253 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: call it two maybe three rounds. He doesn't typically want 254 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: to give up three rounds in a fight, but you 255 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 1: know he's done that before and then come back turn 256 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: the tide or whatever. And even sometimes as he's waiting 257 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 1: figuring you out in those first couple of rounds before 258 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: he kicks it into gear, sometimes he still blows you 259 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: away and is able to counter effectively figure you out 260 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 1: a little bit sooner. He did that to Julius and 261 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: Dono and then knocked him down in the second round, 262 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 1: knocked him out in the third round. Some guys are 263 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: just easier to figure out. I suppose him with Aero spence. 264 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: It's not really for me whether or not Terrence Crawford 265 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: is going to figure him out, because I think he is. 266 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 1: But just because you can figure him out doesn't mean 267 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: you could withstand the power. If he could withstand the power, 268 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: then that's really what we should be talking about in 269 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: terms of whether or not He's going to win this 270 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: fight because I think Aero Spence is going to find him, 271 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: probably not as much as he would like, because Aero 272 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 1: Spence finds everybody. But Terrence Carawford has a chin. He's 273 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: taken some punches before. He hasn't been dropped. Some people 274 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: think that mean machine who might have gotten him a 275 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: few years ago, but you know, he wasn't dropped in 276 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: his career. Hasn't been yet. Aero Spence neither. And that's 277 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,599 Speaker 1: sort of the interesting thing about this fight too, is 278 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: that we haven't seen any guy. While we've seen them 279 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: overcome adversity, they haven't had to go to that place yet, 280 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 1: and the feeling is that either one of them can 281 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: take them there. Let's talk about how either fighter can 282 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: win this fight and look at the winning method markets. 283 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: So Crawford sitting around plus one sixty five to win 284 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: by decision, Spence around plus two hundred knockout, Crawford plus 285 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: two to sixty Spence plus five seventy five. Now in 286 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: terms of their actual betting odds, and then breaking that 287 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: down into percentages of winning methods, the betting market is 288 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: telling you that if Bud is going to win, about 289 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: sixty percent of the time by decision, forty percent by knockout. 290 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: For Spence, it's actually a split of eighty percent by 291 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: decision and twenty percent by knockout. And based on how 292 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: you guys were talking about this fight, it seemed to me, 293 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: with Crawford potentially being the better minute winner, especially down 294 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: the stretch, that the knockout odds for Spence might just 295 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: be a tad undervalued because it seemed to me based 296 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: on how you guys were talking about the fight, if 297 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: Spence wins, it's probably likelier that he wins by knockout. 298 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: So Eric just want to throw to you to talk 299 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: about the winning methods, how you see either fight or winning, 300 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: and whether you think those percentage sham it is. Again 301 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: just to reiterate about sixty forty is the split for 302 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: Crawford decision versus knockout, eighty twenty for Spence decision versus knockout. 303 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: Do you think those percentages are off? 304 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 3: No, They're actually pretty accurate. I would say I'm not 305 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 3: seeing like huge value jumping out at me on any 306 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 3: of those particular prices and markets I did. By shopping around, 307 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 3: I did see Crawford by decision as high as plus 308 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 3: two hundred at one book, and so if you can 309 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 3: find that, if you have access to that in your state, 310 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 3: I think maybe there's some value there because that is 311 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 3: my ultimate pick in the fight, even though look it's 312 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 3: a really hard fight to pick. Again, it opened at 313 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 3: minus one twelve each way. This is an unusual fight 314 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 3: in that regard that there is no real obvious favorite. 315 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 3: But if I had to pick something, it would be 316 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 3: Crawford by decision. The price you said plus one sixty five, 317 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 3: I'm not sure if there's value at plus two hundred. 318 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 3: I think there probably is. Yeah, they're making it kind 319 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 3: of tempting to try to go against the grain and 320 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 3: pick one of these guys by knockouts by knockout, especially Spence. 321 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 3: I guess what Brian pointed out about Spence's body work, 322 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 3: that's key. If you're picking a Spence knockout, which is 323 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 3: the longest shot of those four for good reason, I 324 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 3: guess you're banking on that maybe he can hurt Crawford 325 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 3: to the body. So again, I forget exactly what you 326 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 3: said the odds on Spence by knockout were. 327 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 2: Was that something like five seventy five or plus six? 328 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know that's worth maybe a small bed a 329 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 3: flyer on the chance that it could happen that just 330 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 3: his basic size and strength really comes to the four here. 331 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 3: It's not the outcome I'm predicting, but at plus five 332 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 3: seventy five, maybe it's worth thinking about. But still, out 333 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 3: of these various method of victory markets, I think the 334 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 3: best one is still Crawford by decision. 335 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 2: Ran just to reiterate, so about sixty forty is the 336 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 2: split the expected split for Crawford decision versus knockout, eighty 337 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 2: twenty for Spence decision versus knockout. Do you disagree with 338 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 2: those percentages at all? And I know you're also leaning 339 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 2: I believe to Crawford by decision. 340 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm taking Crawford by decision as my main pick 341 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: for this fight. It won't be my only bet because 342 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: I'll look at some other things to bet, and I'll 343 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: probably wait after the first couple rounds see if I 344 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: can get Terrence Crawford live, you know, for that extra value. 345 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: But in cera, in terms of terrace, Crawford by decision 346 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: I got it at plus one seventy five, And yeah, 347 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,159 Speaker 1: you could find it maybe as high as two hundred 348 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 1: if you're lucky and you could probably find it as 349 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: highest two hundred if you wait a couple rounds to 350 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: bet it live, right, that's something that may happen too. 351 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: But if aeral Spence is gonna win this fight, I 352 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: think he could win on the cards if it's close enough. 353 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 1: I actually could see this and there's gonna be some 354 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: added value here. Bet on a split decision, bet on 355 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: a majority decision. This fight could be really close either way. 356 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: Like if you think Crawford's gonna win, like I think 357 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: the majority decision of split decision, sprinkle is gonna be 358 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: worth it. I don't see that available yet. That probably 359 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: should be available maybe by the time this is out, 360 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 1: maybe by the time that the fight comes around. And 361 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 1: sometimes you can get those numbers in the in the 362 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: high like almost plus one thousand, probably plus five six, 363 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: eight hundred or whatever the case may be. Like there's 364 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: some good value there, and I think this could be 365 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: potentially really close. Like what I'm predicting is similar to 366 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 1: Devin Haney versus Vasilio Machiko, though hopefully without controversy. But 367 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 1: I think that the scorecards one fifteen, one thirteen, one sixteen, 368 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: one twelve is that's we're going to be in the 369 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: range of that kind of a close fight, and if 370 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: we are, then a majority decision split decision. All you 371 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: need is like for the scorecards to be close, maybe 372 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: one breaks the other way, and then you could add 373 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: some value there on your bet. Majority decision. You need 374 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: for people who don't know, you need a draw from 375 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: one judge and two for the winner. So you would 376 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,400 Speaker 1: be banking on somebody to score one to fourteen one fourteen, 377 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 1: and then the winner would get you know, the two 378 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,640 Speaker 1: cards in their favor split decision would be to one way, 379 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: one the other, And I think those are some of 380 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: the things you could look at. But ultimately, yeah, I 381 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 1: think that if Terrence Crawford wins this fight, and I 382 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: think he will, it will likely be by decision. So 383 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: that's about plus one seventy five when I got it. 384 00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,719 Speaker 1: I think Aero Spence is the likelier candidate to win 385 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 1: by knockout. But we also have to remember, and this 386 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 1: is something to factor in if you're doing like long 387 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 1: shot knockout bets, Terence Crawford could expose sort of the 388 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 1: eye injury that Aero Spence has had in the past. 389 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: Injuries are a factor in this two, and you know 390 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: fights could stop because of freak things like that. This 391 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 1: is why boxing, I'm betting, is hard, even though sometimes 392 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: it could seem predictable. So I think that that's one 393 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 1: thing to keep track of. Two. So I think the 394 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: knockout bets, while they're fun and I don't think they're 395 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: going to happen, it could be worth a sprinkle, just 396 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 1: because anything can happen in the sport, even as predictable 397 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: as it may seem. Sometimes. 398 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 3: I love where your head is at, Brian, with the 399 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 3: majority decision and the split decision and all that, because 400 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 3: I was looking at that as well, and there was 401 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 3: one book that did have some of that stuff up. 402 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 3: And I think you're really gonna like the prices there 403 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 3: a little higher than what you were guessing. I saw 404 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 3: Crawford majority decision at plus fourteen hundred. Oh give me 405 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,040 Speaker 3: Spence majority decision plus sixteen hundred. Or you can and 406 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 3: take a little less risk on it and go either 407 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 3: guy by majority decision at plus seven to fifty. So 408 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 3: you know then you need that one one hundred fourteen 409 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 3: to one hundred and fourteen scorecard to make it work. 410 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 3: But I agree with you, this is the kind of 411 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 3: fight that could be close could be tough to score, 412 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 3: even if it isn't that tough to score, and the 413 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 3: whole world seems to agree that one guy clearly won it, 414 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 3: you still sometimes get one judge who's an outlier giving 415 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 3: you a scorecard that doesn't make sense. So those are 416 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 3: some fun kind of long shot approaches on this one. 417 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,440 Speaker 2: Well, it's still boxing, so you still have you know, 418 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 2: pre filled scorecards where one scorecard is for one fighter 419 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 2: before the fight, one for the other fighter before the fight, 420 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 2: and there's only actually one judge judging the fight in 421 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 2: front of them, so you know, both guys leaning towards 422 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 2: Bud by decision, but the split or majority decision props 423 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 2: plus seven to fifty for either fighter, would you say 424 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 2: plus fourteen hundred for Bud Eric And that sounds very 425 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 2: interesting to me as well. In addition to probably the 426 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 2: best way to play it, which is Bug Crawford live 427 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 2: after rounds three, round four, round five, somewhere in there 428 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 2: after potentially starting slow and giving away early minutes guys, 429 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 2: before we move on to potential undercard beats for Saturday. 430 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 2: Any other thoughts on this fight, any other ways you're 431 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 2: thinking about betting it Brian, I gotta go back to you. 432 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: I think if Terrence Crawford, well one, he wins this fight, 433 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: he's pound for pound number one, right, So like, well, 434 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: him and I in a way could fight. 435 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,640 Speaker 3: Right, I was gonna say, in a way it made 436 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:25,719 Speaker 3: that very complicated. 437 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, it made that very complicated. But I 438 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 1: think that's what this sort of fight signifies. And the 439 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: fun thing about it is there is a rematch clause, 440 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: so we may see this again. I don't know if 441 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: it'll be well to wait, but we may see this 442 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: fight again if it does happen. But in terms of 443 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 1: betting on it, I would tell people I wouldn't go 444 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 1: crazy with the just sort of fun knockdown props. That 445 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: will be like plus two thousand and you know, both 446 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: fighters to be knocked down and Terrence Crawford to be 447 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 1: knocked down in rounds one, two or three, and like, 448 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that those definitely aren't going to happen. 449 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: Part of the double negative. But I don't think this 450 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 1: is a fight where you can sprinkle on a ton 451 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 1: of long shots. I think the long shots you should 452 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: be looking at though, are your fighter of choice, because look, 453 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: if Errol Spence Erol Spence could win this fight too, 454 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:15,959 Speaker 1: Like we should acknowledge that all so, I don't want 455 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: to be dismissive to that you can win by knockout 456 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: or by points or by decision. And I think that 457 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: whoever you're backing to win, look at split decision, look 458 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: at majority decision. Those type of long shots, I think 459 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: you can get good realistic value on. I wouldn't put 460 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 1: a ton of money on it, but I would look 461 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:37,239 Speaker 1: at those things and definitely live bet. Like, look at 462 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 1: the fight as it's happening. Terrence Crawford after two rounds 463 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: is something I would look at live. If Errol Spence 464 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,679 Speaker 1: is kicking it into another gear around six seven eight 465 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 1: and you feel like he's breaking down Terrence Crawford and 466 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 1: really hitting him to the body and turning tied in 467 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,719 Speaker 1: his favor, Like, try to, as Eric said, keep your 468 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: app open if you're watching this fight live, because the 469 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 1: money line is probably unless there's obviously a knockdown or 470 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: just a lot of momentum going one way or the other, 471 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: the money line's going to be pretty favorable. It's going 472 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: to be pretty close throughout the fight as long as 473 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: the fight plays out the way it should in terms 474 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: of it being a tight fight, so split decisions, majority decisions, 475 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 1: things of that nature, I would definitely look at more 476 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: than i'd look at the more fun stuff where it's like, 477 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,159 Speaker 1: you know, both fighters to be knocked down in the 478 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: first minute of round eleven and things of that nature, 479 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 1: because I don't know if that's going to happen. 480 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 2: I mean, now my mimilarity is if I'm not betting 481 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 2: splitter majority decision props on big time boxing matches, I 482 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 2: don't know what I'm doing because I've been paying attention 483 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 2: well long enough to all the walkie split decisions that 484 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 2: we get in boxing. Eric Any final thoughts on Spence Crawford. 485 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's one. This flies in the face of what 486 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,160 Speaker 3: Brian was just saying about not betting those stupid knockdown props. 487 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 3: But there is one that I like that I think 488 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 3: is fun, which is I saw any knockdown to be 489 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 3: scored by either guy in any of the first four 490 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 3: rounds was plus sixteen hundred, which seemed a little bit 491 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 3: of a high price for someone to just sneak in 492 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 3: a flash knockdown anywhere in those first four rounds. That 493 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 3: one kind of had my eye. And then the other 494 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 3: thing that I noticed was a bet that has to 495 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 3: be the worst boxing bet I've ever seen and the 496 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 3: most painful sweat imaginable. I saw a price of minus 497 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 3: four thousand to bet under one and a half knockdowns 498 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 3: in this fight? Which do I think there will probably 499 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 3: be under one and a half knockdowns? Yeah? Probably that's 500 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 3: the right side. But risking four hundred dollars to win 501 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 3: ten bucks and sweating every time a punch is thrown that, 502 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 3: oh god, please don't anyone touchdown. It just seems like 503 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 3: the most horrendous sweat imaginable. I advise everyone to stay 504 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 3: as far away as possible from that bet. 505 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 2: At that price, I think you parlay the knockdown in 506 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 2: the first four rounds with the under one and a 507 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,440 Speaker 2: half knockdowns to the fight, and you go with the 508 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 2: ultimate sweat and a completely unnecessary propad. Let's talk about 509 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 2: any undercard bets you guys might have for Saturday. Don't 510 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 2: have to go super in depth all, just some potential 511 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 2: action you might think people would want to have as 512 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 2: they're watching the card in the lead up to Spence 513 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,639 Speaker 2: and Crawford. Eric, any undercard bats for you? 514 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 3: Yeah, the one fight that has my eye is the 515 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 3: great veteran future Hall of Famer in Nito Denair taking 516 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 3: on Alexandro Santiago, and it's a pretty close fight on 517 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 3: the odds board, you know, minus one sixty ish for Denare, 518 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 3: plus one thirty I'm seeing for Santiago, and I kind 519 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 3: of like Santiago. Donare's forty years old. Even at even 520 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 3: money h Santiago was kind of the way I was 521 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 3: leaning in this one. Uh. It just that that potential 522 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 3: for Denaire is coming off a two round knockout loss 523 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,879 Speaker 3: to the great Noia in a way which doesn't necessarily 524 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 3: tell you anything, but it was a brutal physical defeat 525 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 3: that may have been his age starting to show through, 526 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 3: and now another year has passed, he's gotten that much older. 527 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 3: Santiago is the classic pain in the ass fighter. He 528 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 3: doesn't really seem like he's all that good, but he's 529 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 3: just a effective He's not super talented, but he's just 530 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 3: in your grill. And it could be exactly the wrong 531 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,359 Speaker 3: kind of opponent for Deannare to face this point. And 532 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 3: this fight got delayed two weeks at the last minute. 533 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 3: It was supposed to happen two weeks ago. They wanted 534 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,719 Speaker 3: to shuffle some fights around because a fighter's falling out, 535 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 3: so they moved this from another card onto this pay 536 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 3: per view, presumably added a few bucks to each fighter's 537 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 3: first to convince them to stay in training camp an 538 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 3: extra two weeks, but at age forty to be ready 539 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 3: to peak for a fight and then kind of hold 540 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 3: off and maintain that peak for two more weeks and 541 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 3: make weight. It all adds up to a pretty tough 542 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,880 Speaker 3: situation for denare So. I kind of like Santiago as 543 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 3: a plus one thirty underdog, and I also saw him 544 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 3: by knockout at plus five point fifty, which you know, again, 545 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 3: a forty year old fighter who's been knocked out a 546 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 3: couple of times plus five fifty on the underdog to 547 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 3: stop don Air is kind of intriguing to me. 548 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 2: Santiago's twenty seven years old? Is that correct? 549 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 1: As soon as lady? Yes? 550 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know I talk about this all the 551 00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 2: time in the UFC podcast. I don't know what the 552 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 2: stats are for back thing, but when there's at least 553 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 2: an eight year age gap between UFC fighters, especially when 554 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 2: the fighter who's older is near forty years old, the 555 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 2: younger fighter actually wins ten percent or actually it's getting 556 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 2: closer to twelve percent more often than the betting market. 557 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 1: Tells you their fair odds are. 558 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 2: So younger fighters, I think general, tend to be undervalued 559 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 2: because the older fighter has the fan base, they have 560 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 2: the name recognition, et cetera, et cetera, but the durability 561 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 2: usually shot at that point. So Santiago plus one thirty 562 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 2: a bet, I'm going to be joining Eric on Brian. 563 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:30,679 Speaker 2: Any undercard bets that you. 564 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: Like for Saturday, Yeah, one, I like that one. Even 565 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 1: though Santiago if you look him up, he has a 566 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: maddening record. He's twenty seven, three and five, he's five draws, 567 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: and I think, but you know, donaire, Yeah, I mean 568 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: coming back from now in a way knockout in round 569 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: two at that age, and I feel like I've been 570 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: watching O'Neil donair my whole life. He was in Fight 571 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,640 Speaker 1: Night Champion as a veteran and that game came out 572 00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: twelve years ago, you know what I mean, So he's 573 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 1: been around for a long time. Elsewhere on the undercard, 574 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 1: I would look at East sak Kruse Giovanni Cabrera, which 575 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 1: is very fun fight for people who don't know or 576 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: may not remember e. Sak Cruz fought Gervonte Davis very 577 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 1: tough a couple of years ago in a fight that 578 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: Davis won, but it was very close. I scored it 579 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: one fifteen one to thirteen. Personally, Davis was hurt in 580 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,479 Speaker 1: the fight, but E sac Cruz, you know, came forward 581 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 1: and really made a fight out of it and nearly unseated. 582 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,439 Speaker 1: I guess one of the best in this lightweight division. 583 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 1: E sac Cruz is fighting Giovanni Cabrero, who's twenty one tozer, 584 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 1: who has not been at this level of a fight yet. 585 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 1: E sac Cruz is a big favorite, even though he 586 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: has a couple losses, because he's that good. He's menacing 587 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 1: and I actually think that and the books have him 588 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 1: to win by knockout at minus two eighty. He's a 589 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 1: big favorite. So obviously you're not doing that. I mean, 590 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 1: you know, decent parlay leg right one that you could trust, 591 00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 1: and I would say that if you're gonna if you're 592 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 1: gonna play the sack Cruse knockout minus two eighty, do 593 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 1: it in a parlay because that's actually a pretty reliable leg. 594 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 1: You could do that with like Team USA in the 595 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 1: World Cup or something along those lines and perhaps Terrence 596 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: Crawford or Aerospense, who you think is gonna win that fight. 597 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 1: There's your three legger right there. But I always look 598 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: at alternative group round betting. Alternative group round betting Eat 599 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: sat Cruz to win knockout between rounds one through six 600 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 1: is plus one seventy. I think that's a little bit undervalue, 601 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 1: even though it's nearly even. Between seven and twelve, you 602 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: have it at plus one twenty five. I feel like 603 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: it can go either way, but I think e sak 604 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 1: Cruz can get him out of there early. I really do. 605 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,719 Speaker 1: He has a second round knockout. In his last fight 606 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 1: against Water Ramirez, I was on the undercard of Louis 607 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,520 Speaker 1: Ortiz and Andy Vuriez. I believe it was last year 608 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 1: and Euryokas Gambo and knocked him out in the fifth round. 609 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: And Euryokas Gambo doesn't really have a chin anymore, so 610 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: that was surprising. I would say et sac Cruse to 611 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: win group round betting between one and six is interesting. 612 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 1: Between five and eight you probably get a little bit 613 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,719 Speaker 1: more value. But I think he can get Cabrera out 614 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 1: of there quickly, even though Cabrera will try to keep 615 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 1: his distance, not really engage with Estak Cruz. You watch 616 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 1: him fight for a round and you'll know why. But 617 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 1: I think that's something to look at to. Or you 618 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: could just play the knockout straight up as a parlay 619 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 1: leg and. 620 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 3: For the East Coast Fight fans who don't like staying 621 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,479 Speaker 3: up late, you go ahead and bet that ko one 622 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 3: through six and root for it to happen for multiple 623 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 3: reasons in that it will also get the main event 624 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 3: into the ring a little earlier, so maybe you have 625 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 3: a chance of getting to bed before midnight. 626 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 1: Well that'll do it for us. 627 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 2: Thank you so much to Eric Raskin and Brian Fonseka 628 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 2: for joining me to break down Eryl Spence versus Terrence 629 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 2: Bug Crawford going down Saturday night at the Tea Bombo 630 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 2: Arena in Las Vegas. Both the guys like or lean 631 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 2: to Crawford by decision, but they think probably the best 632 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 2: angle is to enter on Crawford Live after the first 633 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 2: couple of rounds and then in terms of undercar bets, 634 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 2: Alejandro Santiago on the money line at plus one thirty 635 00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 2: and then also Esa Cruz rounds one through six knockout 636 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 2: at around plus one saventy for Brian, for Eric, I'm 637 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 2: Sean Zerulo. It's been the Action Network podcast. Best of 638 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 2: luck this weekend, see you next time. 639 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 640 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,080 Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 641 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,160 Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler