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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guests. To conscience is with US

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Speaker 1: VP and head of strategy at a non Roughie Shares

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Speaker 1: and stock brokers on the line from Mumbai, Ton V.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for being with us. I gotta get your reaction

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Speaker 1: to what we're seeing in risk markets right now after

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Speaker 1: that relatively cool reading on core consumer prices. What's your

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Speaker 1: reaction here? Is it enough to engender some enthusiasm for

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Speaker 1: US equities? Hi, thank you for having me on the

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Speaker 1: talk show. So yeah, I think with regards to the

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Speaker 1: numbers that we saw seven point seven and as you

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Speaker 1: very rightly mentioned, we saw the I think the biggest

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Speaker 1: single day rally and over two and a half years,

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Speaker 1: you know, but now it's at seven and a half

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Speaker 1: and SNP at five point five. Uh, it's the expectations

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Speaker 1: were below, you know, kind of the the estimate of

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Speaker 1: somewhere at being at a higher seven point nine to

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Speaker 1: eight percent. So there is expectation of softening in both

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Speaker 1: headline as well as it's gonna give a relief to

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Speaker 1: the rayle in terms of risk assets and also in

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Speaker 1: the bond market. And there's also expectations that the rate hype,

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Speaker 1: the level at which the rate hype was going will

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Speaker 1: also be a bit more calibrated as it was being

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Speaker 1: expected earlier. Yeah, the market seems to be seizing on

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Speaker 1: any piece of good news that I can at the moment.

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Speaker 1: But let's look at the start with clear eyes. Inflation

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Speaker 1: still running very, very hot, the Feds still being quite

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Speaker 1: equivocal on what it says about the path forward. Is

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Speaker 1: there a chance that this is a false dawn? Can

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Speaker 1: you see any risk of a reversal in those numbers

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Speaker 1: in the next few months, or can we say with

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Speaker 1: certain inflation is now peaked? Um? I think in the

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Speaker 1: short term you're still expecting there to be a certain

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Speaker 1: knee jerk reaction with regards to the inflation numbers, you know,

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Speaker 1: being at the higher seven to eight percent margin. But

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Speaker 1: I think right now, with regard to the market estimates

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Speaker 1: and the analysis that's coming in, we we are kind

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Speaker 1: of at the peak of the inflation cycle, although it'll

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Speaker 1: take a bit more than a quarter for it to

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Speaker 1: slow down in in terms of substantial number terms. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think this is the range that we can expect

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Speaker 1: to be in terms of a shorter term you know,

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Speaker 1: inflation rate ton V. This is the first part of

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Speaker 1: our conversation with you, and we'll continue, but before we

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Speaker 1: leave this segment, i'd like to get your take in

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Speaker 1: about thirty seconds or so on the dollar, which simply

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Speaker 1: collapsed today in New York trading. What's your outlook for

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Speaker 1: the green back. I think it's it's again as I

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Speaker 1: said earlier, it's a knee joke reaction with regards to

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Speaker 1: the data that's coming in, whether it's an unemployment data

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Speaker 1: or whether it's the market data that's coming in. We

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Speaker 1: will have to look at a few more data points

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Speaker 1: before we analyze if this is kind of more in

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Speaker 1: terms of a longer term duration. So, Tommy, we were

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Speaker 1: talking earlier about what we've seen with the US inflation print,

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Speaker 1: what we're expecting going hit in terms of the fit.

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Speaker 1: Now you are taking a cautious approach to this encouraging data.

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Speaker 1: So based them, mop, we've seen you're changing your strategies

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Speaker 1: and investment plans at all today. Yes, So I think

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Speaker 1: with regards to strategy in terms of uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: investor strategy for a long term, I think that anyways

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Speaker 1: has to be tactical rather than strategy. So short term

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Speaker 1: liquidity crunch, short term uh you know, allocation short term,

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Speaker 1: you should not really have a big impact on someone's

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Speaker 1: strategic allocation, and it should not be tinkered with unless

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Speaker 1: and until the yield is optimal at current period of time.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, they can take a tactical perspective,

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Speaker 1: like a modest increase in allocation in fixed income assets

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Speaker 1: and an equivalent introduction in equity can be considered for

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Speaker 1: someone who is on a more of a conservative side

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Speaker 1: and for someone with an adequate risk appetite and a

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Speaker 1: longer horizon, I think you can still continue fresher allocations

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Speaker 1: into equities in a more staggered manner, at least in

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Speaker 1: terms of their emoting market allocation. Well, let's talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit about e M and I don't know that

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Speaker 1: we can put India in that basket necessarily, but the

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Speaker 1: market in India since September at any rate, has been

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Speaker 1: on an amazing rally. The last few days notwithstanding because

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Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of altility and maybe a little

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Speaker 1: bit of pullback. That said, I think if I'm right

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Speaker 1: about this, the major benchmarks in India are very near

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Speaker 1: record highs, only about two percent below those levels. Would

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Speaker 1: you be putting new money to work in the Indian

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Speaker 1: equity markets right now. I think new money in terms

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Speaker 1: of anything going in the equity markets will have to

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Speaker 1: be in terms of a staggered manner when we talk

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Speaker 1: about India. If you look at a structural, medium to

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Speaker 1: long term perspective, we are still very positive, you know,

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Speaker 1: on on equity as an asset class, and we continue

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Speaker 1: to believe that Indian equities will deliver a better risk

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Speaker 1: and just to return compared to other media markets. And

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Speaker 1: there is also a significant part of negative development in

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Speaker 1: in terms of the near future with regards to the

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Speaker 1: escessionary trends that happening in Europe. You know, possibility of

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Speaker 1: further fluctuation coming from the US and perhaps any kind

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Speaker 1: of escalation in in the Russia Ukraine war will obviously

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Speaker 1: have an impact in the Indian markets. And also the

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Speaker 1: RBI is looking at a monetary policy tightening. So even

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Speaker 1: with regards to the short term volatility, we do not

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Speaker 1: expect to be a significant correction in terms of equity

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Speaker 1: market bearing any very drastic negative development. So in terms

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Speaker 1: of fresher money inflows, we're still very positive and I

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Speaker 1: think you can see that from the data, even though

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Speaker 1: there has been a significant outflow from f I. The

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Speaker 1: domestic investors continue to be positive in in Indian equities

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Speaker 1: and if you have noticed the recent data in terms

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Speaker 1: of the s I P, they still continue to be strong.

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Speaker 1: So there is money coming in Indian equity in terms

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Speaker 1: of staggered manner. So those data minds are still reflecting

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Speaker 1: that there is positivity in terms of at least retail

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Speaker 1: investors being having a good amount of influence Indian equities

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Speaker 1: in terms of potential negative developments that I mean a

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Speaker 1: lot of the price action today being driven by US

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Speaker 1: CPI inflation and India is still running very hot. Just

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds or so. When do you see this calling um,

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Speaker 1: I think the US inflation right now, You know, we

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Speaker 1: saw the global markets kind of have a good positive rally,

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Speaker 1: and I think the expectations at least for a short

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Speaker 1: term there will be a positive impact on the Indian

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Speaker 1: equities also. But right now we have the earning seasons

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Speaker 1: that are you know, in line right now, and the

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Speaker 1: earning seasons, if you see, they have been broadly in

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Speaker 1: line with our expectations, so they have been more positive

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Speaker 1: as opposed to negative surprises. And I think this also

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Speaker 1: is inducing or kind of getting the investors pumping in

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Speaker 1: money in the equity market, and I think that's another

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Speaker 1: reason why you have seen the noticeable rally happening in video. Alright,

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Speaker 1: Ton V. Kanshan, Vice President and head of Strategy at

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Speaker 1: Anna and Rathi Shares and stock Brokers, Thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia