WEBVTT - Strategic Failures & Pinpointing Generals.  Mike Lyons talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>The Armstrong and Getty Show. Over the past several hours.

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<v Speaker 1>The governor of Chernihiv, that's that city just northeast of Kiev,

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<v Speaker 1>that the Russians conceded that they would be They claimed

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<v Speaker 1>that they're pulling back some of their forces from there.

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<v Speaker 1>The governor of that region says that shelling continued in

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<v Speaker 1>that city overnight, and that shelling continued in the outskirts

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<v Speaker 1>of Kiev. Of course, President Zelinski saying that the fighting

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<v Speaker 1>continues in other parts of the country. The shelling continues

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<v Speaker 1>in Harkive in the northeast and as I mentioned, in Mariople.

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<v Speaker 1>So that feeds into this skepticism that you know, many

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians feel that this is just a repositioning of Russian forces.

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<v Speaker 1>Is Russia actually backing down from their earlier goals or

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<v Speaker 1>just repositioning and uh, they're lying to the world once again.

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<v Speaker 1>I saw some new drone footage of Mariopal that was

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<v Speaker 1>just incredible. It looks like when the those F five

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<v Speaker 1>hurricane or tornadoes hit a town on just level everything,

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<v Speaker 1>like you can see the foundation. It's amazing. So to

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<v Speaker 1>discuss the question negotiations and a number of other interesting topics,

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<v Speaker 1>please welcome to the show. Major Mike Lions, decorated member

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<v Speaker 1>of American Armed Forces, sought after commentator on cable and

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<v Speaker 1>broadcast networks, etcetera. Mike, how are you, sir? Hey, come

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<v Speaker 1>on you guys. Great to be back. Uh, indeed, great

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<v Speaker 1>to have you. So, given what you have observed from

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian military, the Ukrainian military, the stalemates, etcetera, and

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<v Speaker 1>the promises of negotiation and pullbacks, what do you make

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<v Speaker 1>of the current situation, both militarily and diplomatically. Well, first

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<v Speaker 1>and foremost, who cannot believe a single thing that the

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<v Speaker 1>Russia leadership says, not, not in any level. This stuff

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<v Speaker 1>about drawing back out of Kiev, going north to Chernobyl,

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<v Speaker 1>to me, looks more like a reorganization kind of in

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<v Speaker 1>a regroup in order to do a counter attack. They're

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<v Speaker 1>getting away from a very competent guerrilla force that the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine military is put together, small units eight to ten

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<v Speaker 1>individuals with javelins, with the kind of support that is

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<v Speaker 1>just absolutely wreaking havoc on Russian military units there. And

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<v Speaker 1>they've just said enough and so they they've got to

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<v Speaker 1>get out of there now. They're going to give up

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<v Speaker 1>places that they've taken with blood and treasure, which is

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<v Speaker 1>just again unheard of that a guerrilla unit is able

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<v Speaker 1>to do this to the Russian military. So what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>up there? I think think it's just kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>reset to try to get those units offline because they're

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<v Speaker 1>doing so poorly in the south. Mariopo remains their primary objective.

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<v Speaker 1>They have to have it in order to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>complete that land bridge that goes from Crimea to the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the Russian Federation. And and maybe when they

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<v Speaker 1>take that, maybe that starts some kind of negotiation as

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<v Speaker 1>an off ramp or so. But I wouldn't believe a

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<v Speaker 1>word they're saying about scaling back any military operations. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if it just continues militarily, how do you see this

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<v Speaker 1>playing out over the next weeks, months? How long do

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<v Speaker 1>you think it lasts? I think it goes from months

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<v Speaker 1>and it plays out until Russia says enough in that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it feels it can say face. Let's say,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe you can try to um, you know, continue to

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<v Speaker 1>pound down the Ukraine civilian but it just doesn't look

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<v Speaker 1>like that's going to happen. And it just gets back

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<v Speaker 1>to that old expression about you can you know pound

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<v Speaker 1>people into submission. But unless you're gonna be successful taking

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<v Speaker 1>it on the ground, it's not gonna work. And they've

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<v Speaker 1>just not been successful with the military units that that

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<v Speaker 1>are there. You know, for example, they're they're not able

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<v Speaker 1>to have what's called interior lines in the military, and

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<v Speaker 1>with that are that is is the capability to reinforce

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<v Speaker 1>units within poorly worked operations. All those units that are

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<v Speaker 1>in the north and to the east right now can't

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<v Speaker 1>help the units in the south because there are five

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<v Speaker 1>miles away. They couldn't possibly get units and troops and

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<v Speaker 1>equipment there with any kind of speed or urgency unit

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<v Speaker 1>to affect the battle there. So so Russia has failed

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<v Speaker 1>from a strategic perspective. On the military side, however, they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to claim they're gonna try to claim victory some way.

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<v Speaker 1>And if they claim it by taking that south in

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<v Speaker 1>those cities, along the ball along the Black Seat, and

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<v Speaker 1>maybe that's it. Well, we know you're not just a

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<v Speaker 1>military analyst, you're a student of history, and it just

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<v Speaker 1>seems like surrendering that territory to Russia sets a moral

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<v Speaker 1>and practical example. It's just repugnant, just tough to take

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<v Speaker 1>it does. But what it'll do is it will redefine

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<v Speaker 1>now a new boundary, and I think that's what's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be most important. UM. And at least stop the fighting.

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<v Speaker 1>It will stop the killing, so that there's a positive

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<v Speaker 1>aspect to that. UM. But you know, the West is

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<v Speaker 1>going to move in very pretty quickly once it's safe

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<v Speaker 1>to rebuild Ukraine, and that's going to be now hard

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<v Speaker 1>border between you know, Russia and the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And let's hope that Europe and the rest of the

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<v Speaker 1>world now creates the pride that Russia needs to be

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<v Speaker 1>and doesn't do business with them. I mean, again, there

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<v Speaker 1>was no deterrence to keep Russia from invading Ukraine. This

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<v Speaker 1>whole liberal idea of these countries getting together and if

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<v Speaker 1>we're all tied together economically, they won't wage war on

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<v Speaker 1>each other. It just didn't work out here. The Germans

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<v Speaker 1>now we're gonna look for different ways to to supplement

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<v Speaker 1>their energy. They're not going to buy from Russia anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>And now Russia will get it from someplace south to

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<v Speaker 1>India and China. But but the bottom line is, I

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<v Speaker 1>think they've got to really do a tremendous job isolating

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<v Speaker 1>Russia for a long time for years until their leadership changes. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>New York Times is talking about the question they're asking

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<v Speaker 1>in the Pentagon is, how did we misjudge the Russian

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<v Speaker 1>military so badly? Do you have any idea? Yeah, a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of reasons. First of all, it's not in our

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<v Speaker 1>interest to over you know, to undersell what they are,

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<v Speaker 1>because that doesn't buy us weapons and the Pentagon that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, so so we have to make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>we overestimate what their capabilities are. But all of the

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<v Speaker 1>other factors that went into this, the fact that they're

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<v Speaker 1>using conscripts, the fact they don't have good leadership, the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that they've not been able to really do AirLand

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<v Speaker 1>battle or blitz Creeg by synchronizing forces from the air

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<v Speaker 1>and the ground. Um. We and they all bring mass

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<v Speaker 1>to the table. They say, at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 1>they still brought two d thousand troops into Ukraine. And

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<v Speaker 1>that alone that we're watching them throw these troops, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>literally into the fodder and just having them killed for

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<v Speaker 1>no reason. But um, but we're going to continue to

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<v Speaker 1>underestimate our enemies as as a as a matter of fact,

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<v Speaker 1>in order to overestimate our Pentagon budgets. I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>a big part of it. That's interesting. But we all know, everybody,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, miss miss uh under overestimated Putin. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we all had this view of him being this crafty

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<v Speaker 1>KGB genius three dimensional chess and it doesn't look that

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<v Speaker 1>way at all. Well unless, though, unless his goal all

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<v Speaker 1>along has been the land bridge along the south, along

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<v Speaker 1>the coast, I don't know. Yeah, I think he would

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<v Speaker 1>have liked, you know, to take keep change the government

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<v Speaker 1>and thought that possibly was going to happen, and and

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<v Speaker 1>given the distances, I would have thought that they would

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<v Speaker 1>have been more successful in the north. They were, they

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<v Speaker 1>were prepositioned in Belarus, they had less distance to travel.

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<v Speaker 1>They still couldn't get fifty miles into the into Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and take the city or even even really threatened. They're

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<v Speaker 1>only been threatened by the strategic weapons. So there's another

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<v Speaker 1>colleagues at the Modern War Institute, John Spencer, who's an

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<v Speaker 1>expert on urban conflict, and we're talking about the Surban

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<v Speaker 1>conflict and I'm like, John, it's not happened yet. We haven't.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't have it yet. All all that they've done

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<v Speaker 1>is surround the city and they're selling it from artillery

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<v Speaker 1>and cruise missiles. That's not really urban conflict yet. I

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<v Speaker 1>would have thought by now you'd have tanks in the streets,

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<v Speaker 1>you'd have fighting, you'd have a lot more things happening

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<v Speaker 1>inside Kiev, and it's just just doesn't happen yet. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>explain to people what a big deal it is. An

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<v Speaker 1>NBC is now saying nine Russian generals have died. How

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<v Speaker 1>how unique is that in the history of warfare and

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<v Speaker 1>heard of? And and that's because these guys are coming

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<v Speaker 1>down to the execution phase of what's happening. And I

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<v Speaker 1>mean they're literally directing traffic. I mean, I guess, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean the fact that they're so close to the fighting

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<v Speaker 1>they are likely being targeted. I want. There's one thing

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<v Speaker 1>we're providing in a way that's not talked about now

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<v Speaker 1>is level of intelligence to the Ukraine military that is

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<v Speaker 1>probably in real time and likely a lot of it

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<v Speaker 1>has to do with where those generals are. As we

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<v Speaker 1>know where they are based on our satellite technology and

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<v Speaker 1>we could read main tags and foxols down to the

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<v Speaker 1>ground there, right, So, so I'm sure that we've passed

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of that information onto the Ukraine military and

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<v Speaker 1>it's it doesn't surprise me that the special forces operators

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<v Speaker 1>within Ukraine, our targets general officers on purpose. Now again,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that there's have to be so close to

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<v Speaker 1>the fighting just shows you how inefficient their military is

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, they have to feel that they have

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<v Speaker 1>to lead that far. I just just beyond the pale

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<v Speaker 1>to think that they've got to get down and literally

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<v Speaker 1>almost direct traffic on on things that are going down there.

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<v Speaker 1>Major Mike Lions last question for me anyway, Mike, we

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<v Speaker 1>came across some really interesting and troubling analysis of the

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<v Speaker 1>strength of the German forces that we talked about last week. Boy,

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<v Speaker 1>you talk about a paper tiger. They're only one of

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<v Speaker 1>one out of three warships is actually ready to sail.

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<v Speaker 1>For instance, what is the state of NATO forces and

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<v Speaker 1>and do you think there's a chance to whip them

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<v Speaker 1>into shape anytime soon? Well, you bring them all together.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're tied all on the bow, it looks big,

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<v Speaker 1>and it looks great, and it looks good. The problem

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<v Speaker 1>is it's just not in one spot and it wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>do anything. So let's say he attacked the Baltics and

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<v Speaker 1>they were there, it would take NATO six months to

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<v Speaker 1>muster the force to kick the Russians out of the

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<v Speaker 1>Baltics or to defend or do anything like that. The

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<v Speaker 1>German military in particular, Yeah, the German military in particular.

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<v Speaker 1>The Russians have lost more tanks than the German military

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<v Speaker 1>has operational right now. It's just beyond again crazy to

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<v Speaker 1>think how far Germany has gone. And you remember the

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<v Speaker 1>last guy, the last president said, you know, Germany needs

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<v Speaker 1>to step up and get with the program. Well they're

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<v Speaker 1>finally doing it. And it took this threat from Russia

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<v Speaker 1>to do it. And these are two cultures that have

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<v Speaker 1>been at war at some point for the last you know,

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<v Speaker 1>d two hundred years. So it just surprises me over

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<v Speaker 1>this last generation with you know, angling Merkel about their

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<v Speaker 1>reliance on Russian oil. They outsourced their energy to their country,

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<v Speaker 1>and then still now they recognize the fact that they

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<v Speaker 1>could be overrun in fifty or sixty hours. Now again

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<v Speaker 1>the military and the Russian side has shown us that

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<v Speaker 1>they're probably not all that, and you know, and there's things. However,

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<v Speaker 1>Russia has capacity, they have capability to shoot cruise missiles,

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<v Speaker 1>they could land in Berlin and can land in London.

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<v Speaker 1>They could land in Washington d see anytime they want.

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<v Speaker 1>Major Mike Clients Military analyst, Mike, thanks so much for

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<v Speaker 1>the insight. We appreciate it absolutely. Uh. You know, to

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<v Speaker 1>that point, it's been extraordinary to see public opinion in

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<v Speaker 1>Germany change from their you know, naive Unicornian pacifist everything

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<v Speaker 1>will be fine stance to the German people waking up,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean in waking up in huge numbers saying we've

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<v Speaker 1>got to build a military, we gotta be strong. It

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<v Speaker 1>went from fifteen percent to in terms of supplying arms

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<v Speaker 1>to Ukraine in February to now. Meanwhile down the road

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<v Speaker 1>in Poland, I just read enrollment in Poland's equivalent of

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<v Speaker 1>the National Guard. It's a volunteer force of citizen soldiers. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Volunteers for that have sept coupled seven times as many

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<v Speaker 1>droves and droves of Polish citizens are saying, hey, train

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<v Speaker 1>me up, get me ready. If you ever need me,

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<v Speaker 1>call me. Well, I would hope that would happen. If

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<v Speaker 1>that were happening on our border, I would join up.

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<v Speaker 1>You look at you know, you have the ability to

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<v Speaker 1>turn on the TV and see what it's like for

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<v Speaker 1>these people in Ukraine who have lost absolutely everything, maybe forever, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're not willing to stand up and fight for that.

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<v Speaker 1>So to a very large extent, I see the countries

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<v Speaker 1>in NATO waking up in a way that's really encouraging.

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<v Speaker 1>Mildly question in the modern world is attention span? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>Does that wisdom last? What if a movie star slaps

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<v Speaker 1>a comedian for instance,