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Speaker 1: The Armstrong and Getty Show. Over the past several hours.

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Speaker 1: The governor of Chernihiv, that's that city just northeast of Kiev,

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Speaker 1: that the Russians conceded that they would be They claimed

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Speaker 1: that they're pulling back some of their forces from there.

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Speaker 1: The governor of that region says that shelling continued in

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Speaker 1: that city overnight, and that shelling continued in the outskirts

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Speaker 1: of Kiev. Of course, President Zelinski saying that the fighting

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Speaker 1: continues in other parts of the country. The shelling continues

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Speaker 1: in Harkive in the northeast and as I mentioned, in Mariople.

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Speaker 1: So that feeds into this skepticism that you know, many

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Speaker 1: Ukrainians feel that this is just a repositioning of Russian forces.

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Speaker 1: Is Russia actually backing down from their earlier goals or

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Speaker 1: just repositioning and uh, they're lying to the world once again.

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Speaker 1: I saw some new drone footage of Mariopal that was

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Speaker 1: just incredible. It looks like when the those F five

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Speaker 1: hurricane or tornadoes hit a town on just level everything,

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Speaker 1: like you can see the foundation. It's amazing. So to

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Speaker 1: discuss the question negotiations and a number of other interesting topics,

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Speaker 1: please welcome to the show. Major Mike Lions, decorated member

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Speaker 1: of American Armed Forces, sought after commentator on cable and

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Speaker 1: broadcast networks, etcetera. Mike, how are you, sir? Hey, come

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Speaker 1: on you guys. Great to be back. Uh, indeed, great

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Speaker 1: to have you. So, given what you have observed from

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Speaker 1: the Russian military, the Ukrainian military, the stalemates, etcetera, and

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Speaker 1: the promises of negotiation and pullbacks, what do you make

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Speaker 1: of the current situation, both militarily and diplomatically. Well, first

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Speaker 1: and foremost, who cannot believe a single thing that the

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Speaker 1: Russia leadership says, not, not in any level. This stuff

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Speaker 1: about drawing back out of Kiev, going north to Chernobyl,

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Speaker 1: to me, looks more like a reorganization kind of in

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Speaker 1: a regroup in order to do a counter attack. They're

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Speaker 1: getting away from a very competent guerrilla force that the

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Speaker 1: Ukraine military is put together, small units eight to ten

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Speaker 1: individuals with javelins, with the kind of support that is

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Speaker 1: just absolutely wreaking havoc on Russian military units there. And

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Speaker 1: they've just said enough and so they they've got to

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Speaker 1: get out of there now. They're going to give up

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Speaker 1: places that they've taken with blood and treasure, which is

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Speaker 1: just again unheard of that a guerrilla unit is able

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Speaker 1: to do this to the Russian military. So what's happening

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Speaker 1: up there? I think think it's just kind of a

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Speaker 1: reset to try to get those units offline because they're

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Speaker 1: doing so poorly in the south. Mariopo remains their primary objective.

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Speaker 1: They have to have it in order to kind of

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Speaker 1: complete that land bridge that goes from Crimea to the

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Speaker 1: rest of the Russian Federation. And and maybe when they

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Speaker 1: take that, maybe that starts some kind of negotiation as

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Speaker 1: an off ramp or so. But I wouldn't believe a

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Speaker 1: word they're saying about scaling back any military operations. Well,

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Speaker 1: if it just continues militarily, how do you see this

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Speaker 1: playing out over the next weeks, months? How long do

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Speaker 1: you think it lasts? I think it goes from months

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Speaker 1: and it plays out until Russia says enough in that

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Speaker 1: you know, it feels it can say face. Let's say,

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Speaker 1: maybe you can try to um, you know, continue to

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Speaker 1: pound down the Ukraine civilian but it just doesn't look

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Speaker 1: like that's going to happen. And it just gets back

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Speaker 1: to that old expression about you can you know pound

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Speaker 1: people into submission. But unless you're gonna be successful taking

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Speaker 1: it on the ground, it's not gonna work. And they've

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Speaker 1: just not been successful with the military units that that

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Speaker 1: are there. You know, for example, they're they're not able

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Speaker 1: to have what's called interior lines in the military, and

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Speaker 1: with that are that is is the capability to reinforce

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Speaker 1: units within poorly worked operations. All those units that are

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Speaker 1: in the north and to the east right now can't

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Speaker 1: help the units in the south because there are five

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Speaker 1: miles away. They couldn't possibly get units and troops and

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Speaker 1: equipment there with any kind of speed or urgency unit

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Speaker 1: to affect the battle there. So so Russia has failed

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Speaker 1: from a strategic perspective. On the military side, however, they're

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Speaker 1: going to claim they're gonna try to claim victory some way.

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Speaker 1: And if they claim it by taking that south in

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Speaker 1: those cities, along the ball along the Black Seat, and

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Speaker 1: maybe that's it. Well, we know you're not just a

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Speaker 1: military analyst, you're a student of history, and it just

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Speaker 1: seems like surrendering that territory to Russia sets a moral

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Speaker 1: and practical example. It's just repugnant, just tough to take

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Speaker 1: it does. But what it'll do is it will redefine

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Speaker 1: now a new boundary, and I think that's what's going

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Speaker 1: to be most important. UM. And at least stop the fighting.

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Speaker 1: It will stop the killing, so that there's a positive

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Speaker 1: aspect to that. UM. But you know, the West is

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Speaker 1: going to move in very pretty quickly once it's safe

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Speaker 1: to rebuild Ukraine, and that's going to be now hard

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Speaker 1: border between you know, Russia and the rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: And let's hope that Europe and the rest of the

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Speaker 1: world now creates the pride that Russia needs to be

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Speaker 1: and doesn't do business with them. I mean, again, there

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Speaker 1: was no deterrence to keep Russia from invading Ukraine. This

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Speaker 1: whole liberal idea of these countries getting together and if

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Speaker 1: we're all tied together economically, they won't wage war on

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Speaker 1: each other. It just didn't work out here. The Germans

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Speaker 1: now we're gonna look for different ways to to supplement

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Speaker 1: their energy. They're not going to buy from Russia anymore.

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Speaker 1: And now Russia will get it from someplace south to

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Speaker 1: India and China. But but the bottom line is, I

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Speaker 1: think they've got to really do a tremendous job isolating

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Speaker 1: Russia for a long time for years until their leadership changes. Uh.

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Speaker 1: New York Times is talking about the question they're asking

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Speaker 1: in the Pentagon is, how did we misjudge the Russian

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Speaker 1: military so badly? Do you have any idea? Yeah, a

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Speaker 1: couple of reasons. First of all, it's not in our

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Speaker 1: interest to over you know, to undersell what they are,

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Speaker 1: because that doesn't buy us weapons and the Pentagon that

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Speaker 1: you know, so so we have to make sure that

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Speaker 1: we overestimate what their capabilities are. But all of the

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Speaker 1: other factors that went into this, the fact that they're

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Speaker 1: using conscripts, the fact they don't have good leadership, the

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Speaker 1: fact that they've not been able to really do AirLand

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Speaker 1: battle or blitz Creeg by synchronizing forces from the air

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Speaker 1: and the ground. Um. We and they all bring mass

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Speaker 1: to the table. They say, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: they still brought two d thousand troops into Ukraine. And

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Speaker 1: that alone that we're watching them throw these troops, you know,

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Speaker 1: literally into the fodder and just having them killed for

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Speaker 1: no reason. But um, but we're going to continue to

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Speaker 1: underestimate our enemies as as a as a matter of fact,

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Speaker 1: in order to overestimate our Pentagon budgets. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a big part of it. That's interesting. But we all know, everybody,

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Speaker 1: I mean, miss miss uh under overestimated Putin. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we all had this view of him being this crafty

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Speaker 1: KGB genius three dimensional chess and it doesn't look that

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Speaker 1: way at all. Well unless, though, unless his goal all

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Speaker 1: along has been the land bridge along the south, along

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Speaker 1: the coast, I don't know. Yeah, I think he would

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Speaker 1: have liked, you know, to take keep change the government

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Speaker 1: and thought that possibly was going to happen, and and

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Speaker 1: given the distances, I would have thought that they would

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Speaker 1: have been more successful in the north. They were, they

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Speaker 1: were prepositioned in Belarus, they had less distance to travel.

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Speaker 1: They still couldn't get fifty miles into the into Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and take the city or even even really threatened. They're

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Speaker 1: only been threatened by the strategic weapons. So there's another

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Speaker 1: colleagues at the Modern War Institute, John Spencer, who's an

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Speaker 1: expert on urban conflict, and we're talking about the Surban

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Speaker 1: conflict and I'm like, John, it's not happened yet. We haven't.

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Speaker 1: We don't have it yet. All all that they've done

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Speaker 1: is surround the city and they're selling it from artillery

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Speaker 1: and cruise missiles. That's not really urban conflict yet. I

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Speaker 1: would have thought by now you'd have tanks in the streets,

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Speaker 1: you'd have fighting, you'd have a lot more things happening

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Speaker 1: inside Kiev, and it's just just doesn't happen yet. Well,

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Speaker 1: explain to people what a big deal it is. An

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Speaker 1: NBC is now saying nine Russian generals have died. How

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Speaker 1: how unique is that in the history of warfare and

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Speaker 1: heard of? And and that's because these guys are coming

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Speaker 1: down to the execution phase of what's happening. And I

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Speaker 1: mean they're literally directing traffic. I mean, I guess, I

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Speaker 1: mean the fact that they're so close to the fighting

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Speaker 1: they are likely being targeted. I want. There's one thing

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Speaker 1: we're providing in a way that's not talked about now

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Speaker 1: is level of intelligence to the Ukraine military that is

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Speaker 1: probably in real time and likely a lot of it

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Speaker 1: has to do with where those generals are. As we

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Speaker 1: know where they are based on our satellite technology and

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Speaker 1: we could read main tags and foxols down to the

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Speaker 1: ground there, right, So, so I'm sure that we've passed

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Speaker 1: a lot of that information onto the Ukraine military and

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Speaker 1: it's it doesn't surprise me that the special forces operators

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Speaker 1: within Ukraine, our targets general officers on purpose. Now again,

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Speaker 1: the fact that there's have to be so close to

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Speaker 1: the fighting just shows you how inefficient their military is

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Speaker 1: because you know, they have to feel that they have

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Speaker 1: to lead that far. I just just beyond the pale

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Speaker 1: to think that they've got to get down and literally

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Speaker 1: almost direct traffic on on things that are going down there.

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Speaker 1: Major Mike Lions last question for me anyway, Mike, we

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Speaker 1: came across some really interesting and troubling analysis of the

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Speaker 1: strength of the German forces that we talked about last week. Boy,

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Speaker 1: you talk about a paper tiger. They're only one of

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Speaker 1: one out of three warships is actually ready to sail.

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Speaker 1: For instance, what is the state of NATO forces and

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Speaker 1: and do you think there's a chance to whip them

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Speaker 1: into shape anytime soon? Well, you bring them all together.

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Speaker 1: If you're tied all on the bow, it looks big,

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Speaker 1: and it looks great, and it looks good. The problem

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Speaker 1: is it's just not in one spot and it wouldn't

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Speaker 1: do anything. So let's say he attacked the Baltics and

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Speaker 1: they were there, it would take NATO six months to

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Speaker 1: muster the force to kick the Russians out of the

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Speaker 1: Baltics or to defend or do anything like that. The

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Speaker 1: German military in particular, Yeah, the German military in particular.

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Speaker 1: The Russians have lost more tanks than the German military

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Speaker 1: has operational right now. It's just beyond again crazy to

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Speaker 1: think how far Germany has gone. And you remember the

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Speaker 1: last guy, the last president said, you know, Germany needs

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Speaker 1: to step up and get with the program. Well they're

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Speaker 1: finally doing it. And it took this threat from Russia

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Speaker 1: to do it. And these are two cultures that have

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Speaker 1: been at war at some point for the last you know,

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Speaker 1: d two hundred years. So it just surprises me over

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Speaker 1: this last generation with you know, angling Merkel about their

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Speaker 1: reliance on Russian oil. They outsourced their energy to their country,

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Speaker 1: and then still now they recognize the fact that they

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Speaker 1: could be overrun in fifty or sixty hours. Now again

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Speaker 1: the military and the Russian side has shown us that

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Speaker 1: they're probably not all that, and you know, and there's things. However,

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Speaker 1: Russia has capacity, they have capability to shoot cruise missiles,

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Speaker 1: they could land in Berlin and can land in London.

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Speaker 1: They could land in Washington d see anytime they want.

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Speaker 1: Major Mike Clients Military analyst, Mike, thanks so much for

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Speaker 1: the insight. We appreciate it absolutely. Uh. You know, to

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Speaker 1: that point, it's been extraordinary to see public opinion in

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Speaker 1: Germany change from their you know, naive Unicornian pacifist everything

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Speaker 1: will be fine stance to the German people waking up,

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Speaker 1: I mean in waking up in huge numbers saying we've

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Speaker 1: got to build a military, we gotta be strong. It

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Speaker 1: went from fifteen percent to in terms of supplying arms

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Speaker 1: to Ukraine in February to now. Meanwhile down the road

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Speaker 1: in Poland, I just read enrollment in Poland's equivalent of

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Speaker 1: the National Guard. It's a volunteer force of citizen soldiers. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Volunteers for that have sept coupled seven times as many

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Speaker 1: droves and droves of Polish citizens are saying, hey, train

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Speaker 1: me up, get me ready. If you ever need me,

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Speaker 1: call me. Well, I would hope that would happen. If

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Speaker 1: that were happening on our border, I would join up.

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Speaker 1: You look at you know, you have the ability to

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Speaker 1: turn on the TV and see what it's like for

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Speaker 1: these people in Ukraine who have lost absolutely everything, maybe forever, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: if you're not willing to stand up and fight for that.

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Speaker 1: So to a very large extent, I see the countries

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Speaker 1: in NATO waking up in a way that's really encouraging.

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Speaker 1: Mildly question in the modern world is attention span? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Does that wisdom last? What if a movie star slaps

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Speaker 1: a comedian for instance,