Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey Pa Joe Pizzapia, and
Speaker 1: we did it. We made it. We're here. The NFL
Speaker 1: season has finally begun and we're gonna start looking ahead
Speaker 1: to the lines for week one, try to find some
Speaker 1: early values. And the Labor Day weekend is that big
Speaker 1: signal that the NFL season has begun, which is great
Speaker 1: because no more theoretical football. We got real football to
Speaker 1: talk about. Help me break it all down as Pat
Speaker 1: Fitzmorris and FITZI. You can follow obviously at Bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com slash fits or you can follow me at Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com slash Joe and get in all the things
Speaker 1: that we're getting in. I know this weekend we're kind
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Speaker 1: join any time you want, and it's theoretical picking, and
Speaker 1: that's a great thing. And gosh darn it, Pat, I'm
Speaker 1: just happy football is back. And this is one of
Speaker 1: my favorite things because one of the signals of the
Speaker 1: new week and a fresh start is always this look
Speaker 1: ahead show that we do every week, which we will
Speaker 1: be doing in season every Monday, and this is like
Speaker 1: the biggest one because this is the beginning of the season.
Speaker 1: And also we know Week one always gets wacky.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got a full dose of college football under
Speaker 2: our and now we are days away from the Kansas
Speaker 2: City Chiefs and Detroit Lions kicking off the new season.
Speaker 2: I can't wait, Joe. It's been a great summer, a
Speaker 2: lot of golf, a lot of cookouts. But you know
Speaker 2: I'm ready for football, man.
Speaker 1: Yes i am too. So let's start with that game.
Speaker 1: Kansas City is hosting the Detroit Lions on Thursday night football.
Speaker 1: The best number you can get over on Betting Pro
Speaker 1: so, so we're gonna be looking through this. So six and
Speaker 1: a half on FanDuel on this bread, the plus side
Speaker 1: for Detroit, the minus on Kansas City at minus one
Speaker 1: ten six and a half. The fifty four and a
Speaker 1: half is the total right now. The best one you
Speaker 1: can get in the over, which is also on fandul,
Speaker 1: and then DK you can get fifty three and a half.
Speaker 1: And this is why the Betting pros app is the best. Okay,
Speaker 1: as I'm talking through these numbers, you'll see the different
Speaker 1: houses you get the best numbers all over the place
Speaker 1: obviously Detroit the heavy underdog and the money line plus
Speaker 1: two forty as they should be. The one number I
Speaker 1: keep coming back to on this one is it's early,
Speaker 1: so I think the fifty three and a half you know,
Speaker 1: on the on the under, it feels like a big
Speaker 1: number to me for a Thursday night game to start
Speaker 1: the season, where I just don't know if everybody's on
Speaker 1: the same page. You're ready to go yet, So if
Speaker 1: anything on this game, I'm looking towards the under a
Speaker 1: little bit. How about you, Pat, how do you see
Speaker 1: this one?
Speaker 3: Well, Joe?
Speaker 2: Over the last eight season openers the Kansas City Chiefs
Speaker 2: have played, they have averaged thirty six point four points.
Speaker 1: Like you bringing me back around? Okay, let's go. Yeah.
Speaker 2: If you give Andy Reid like weeks months to prepare
Speaker 2: an offensive game plan, lookout. And the weird thing is, Joe,
Speaker 2: Kansas City has won eight straight season openers under Andy Reid.
Speaker 2: But in those eight straight wins, they have allowed no
Speaker 2: fewer than twenty points in any of those wins, so
Speaker 2: it's not like their defense has been all that fine tune.
Speaker 2: The average point total in those eight games has been
Speaker 2: sixty point three points, So I actually do think there
Speaker 2: might be a little bit of value in the over here, Joe, Like,
Speaker 2: I think we're going to see some points, especially Chris
Speaker 2: Jones miss the entire preseason with his holdout for the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: him not being around as like or playing a reduced role,
Speaker 2: Like that's a big thing, Like he is a lynchman
Speaker 2: on their defense. Yeah, so, you know, like I and
Speaker 2: I think Joe, the Lions are going to be sort
Speaker 2: of fired up. Like we've both sort of agreed that
Speaker 2: the Lions hype train has gotten.
Speaker 3: A little too a little too much.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, Dan Campbell does seem like
Speaker 2: a pretty good motivator, and I think he's going to
Speaker 2: have his team pretty fired up to prove that they
Speaker 2: belong in this big stage. I mean, we know the
Speaker 2: Lions were a surprise selection for this game.
Speaker 3: No one saw that and a.
Speaker 2: Lot of people were like whoa. You know, the league
Speaker 2: is really all in on the Lions this year. I
Speaker 2: don't know if they really belong here, but they might
Speaker 2: be abut to prove a point that they do belong.
Speaker 3: And we know the Chiefs sometimes.
Speaker 2: Aren't great as a big home favorite. They struggle to
Speaker 2: cover some of these big numbers at times, and I'd
Speaker 2: love to see this number get to seven. I don't
Speaker 2: know if it's going to get there. You know, I'm waiting.
Speaker 2: I'm waiting, my fingers hovering over the button to take
Speaker 2: the Lions Joe, But I'm not there just yet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this game doesn't really move the neal from me. Again,
Speaker 1: I keep going back to that total, although the statues
Speaker 1: threw me with the Andy Reid preparation now have sent
Speaker 1: shivers down my spine. However, again it's ken Detroit keep
Speaker 1: up there under the bargain too, with some of the
Speaker 1: new things that are going to be running through here.
Speaker 1: And this is the measuring stick, right, and I think
Speaker 1: Detroit's going to learn real quick how good they really are.
Speaker 1: This game, to me is more of a prop game.
Speaker 1: I'm looking for the Kelsey numbers. I'm looking for some
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes numbers, that stuff where I can, I think,
Speaker 1: feel a little bit more confident. Maybe the Aman ross
Speaker 1: Ain Brown reception number over like, That's kind of how
Speaker 1: I'm attacking this game as opposed to the lines Houston Baltimore.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to Sunday. The total for this
Speaker 1: one you get at forty four right now across the
Speaker 1: board pretty much you're getting obviously Baltimore heavy favorites here.
Speaker 1: Minus ten is the best one you can get right
Speaker 1: now for this. If you like Houston to upset the
Speaker 1: Baltim Ravens at plus three seventy five, I don't think
Speaker 1: you're gonna get that. But Pat, any love for this
Speaker 1: game whatsoever, any early value in your opinion.
Speaker 2: Yeah, more Week one trends for you, Joe. Since Jim
Speaker 2: John Harbaugh again coaching the Ravens in two thousand and eight,
Speaker 2: they are seven and one in home Week one games,
Speaker 2: and they've beaten their well, they've outscored their opponents. Even
Speaker 2: factoring in that one loss, they've outscored their opponents by
Speaker 2: an average of nineteen point four points a game. So
Speaker 2: their last three opponents in home openers in Week one
Speaker 2: have scored seven points or fewer. And the Ravens are good,
Speaker 2: the Texans are bad. The Ravens are tough at home.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the points here, Like I don't mind
Speaker 2: the big number.
Speaker 1: It is a big number, especially this time of year,
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm leading that way as well. In fact,
Speaker 1: my favorite thing of this is probably to make some
Speaker 1: money to go for Zay Flowers anytime touchdown scorer in
Speaker 1: this game. That's the one that's gonna stand out to me.
Speaker 1: Wherever you get a good plus money number on that one,
Speaker 1: you're gonna get it everywhere. I would look for that one.
Speaker 1: I am in on Za Flowers this year. Carolina and Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Let's go the Bjeon Robinson debut. I'm excited for this,
Speaker 1: also the Bryce Young debut. Now, the number you're getting
Speaker 1: on this one, the best over is at Sugarhouse at forty.
Speaker 1: That's a flat number right now. The under thirty nine
Speaker 1: and a half. You can get on DK at minus
Speaker 1: one oh eight. So far, Atlanta four point favorites in
Speaker 1: this one. That's the way this is looking. You can
Speaker 1: get Carolina at plus three and a half. If you
Speaker 1: like Carolina for the just straight up upset, it's plus
Speaker 1: one sixty. I guess the biggest concern I have right
Speaker 1: now in this game and the reason why I think
Speaker 1: this line is kind of on the right side. Even
Speaker 1: I like Atlanta. Four is kind of like pushing the
Speaker 1: envelope for me here. But I keep coming back to
Speaker 1: the protection or lack thereof, of Bryce Young, and that
Speaker 1: wears me a little bit in this game. How do
Speaker 1: you feel about this one? In the early look in
Speaker 1: week one, Yeah.
Speaker 2: It's weird that line hasn't been better. I mean, they've
Speaker 2: got Ikey Iwanu, who's one of the better young offensive lineman.
Speaker 2: James Campen is a really good offensive line coach. The
Speaker 2: Panther did look terrible in the preseason, Joe. They lost
Speaker 2: all three of their games. They were humiliated by the
Speaker 2: Jets twenty seven to nothing. But even though the Falcons
Speaker 2: have become sort of this public darling, I think this year,
Speaker 2: or at least in the.
Speaker 1: Nfin public darling, or you think they're the sharp darling,
Speaker 1: because I feel like all the sharps we've had on
Speaker 1: the show, and I'm not gonna throw myself in that grouping,
Speaker 1: but I was on the Falcons coming into the season
Speaker 1: as well. Almost every sharp person we've had on the
Speaker 1: show has been pointing to the Falcons. But do you
Speaker 1: think they're public yet?
Speaker 2: Maybe they might not be. It might be more of
Speaker 2: a sharp darling thing. I think you're right on that,
Speaker 2: But I do think they're getting more attention in the
Speaker 2: NFC South, and I know people I've talked to who
Speaker 2: have bet NFC South Division winner have all been on
Speaker 2: the Falcons almost unanimously. It's kind of weird, and like,
Speaker 2: I still think the Panthers can be the equal of
Speaker 2: the Falcons, believe it or not, Joe, Like, as bad
Speaker 2: as they've looked in the preseason, I think Bryce Young
Speaker 2: could possibly hit stride early just because he's this high
Speaker 2: floor guy who everyone says is kind of a savant
Speaker 2: as a playmaker, and I think he's going to like
Speaker 2: get to his max potential pretty quickly. Maybe not week
Speaker 2: one of his rookie season, but pretty quickly. And Frank
Speaker 2: Reich really does have one of the best staffs of
Speaker 2: assistant coaches in the league, just like kind of all
Speaker 2: star assistants at more or less coaching every unit. So like,
Speaker 2: I think this team could be a sneaky overachiever. I
Speaker 2: actually kind of like that You're getting the hook at
Speaker 2: three and a half here. So I've taken the Panthers.
Speaker 2: I took them a while ago. I'm probably not going
Speaker 2: to double down and put any additional money on the Panthers,
Speaker 2: but I sort of like them as a sneaky cover
Speaker 2: here in what should be a pretty low scoring game.
Speaker 2: Let's face it, I mean the Falcons love to run
Speaker 2: the ball, as they should with Desmond Rider at quarterback.
Speaker 2: The Panthers offense not really ready for prime time just yet.
Speaker 2: These are not high powered offenses. Joe, I think this
Speaker 2: could be a rock fight, low scoring game. So I
Speaker 2: kind of like the Panthers with the points and the
Speaker 2: under here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, look kind of I see where you're going in
Speaker 1: these individual matchups too. You know, whenever we open up
Speaker 1: the season with those, I think that's always, you know,
Speaker 1: a fun thing because those games are typically a little
Speaker 1: tougher to gauge regardless, you know, because there's familiarity. But
Speaker 1: there's so much new here, you know, new quarterback in
Speaker 1: Carolina obviously Bejean, which is so waiting for some of
Speaker 1: those numbers to come out on him. We have a
Speaker 1: lot of Carolina props. But again, I'm attacking the individuals
Speaker 1: in this game more than attacking the game itself because
Speaker 1: there's a little bit more unknown there. Let's get to
Speaker 1: another one too, Cincinnati, maybe a limited Joe Burrow. It
Speaker 1: looks like potentially we're we're still getting more updates here
Speaker 1: as we're approaching the weekend on that they're gonna go
Speaker 1: to Cleveland to play the Browns, and this is you know,
Speaker 1: I know this is so dumb pack because it's Week one,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna say it anyway. This is kind of
Speaker 1: a statement for the Browns. I feel like week one,
Speaker 1: like you, you can go out there and potentially get
Speaker 1: an upset in this game if you are in the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns and really make a statement. The number here
Speaker 1: for Cleveland is plus two and a half. They are dogs,
Speaker 1: which we always love. And if there is a moment
Speaker 1: here of you know where maybe joe Be's a little rusty,
Speaker 1: maybe you catch him napping a little bit, maybe the
Speaker 1: Bengals think, you know, hey, we're you know, we're the
Speaker 1: class of the AFC. We're gonna go prove it. We
Speaker 1: overlook the Cleveland brown This is a big show me game,
Speaker 1: and I think one of the ones that I circle
Speaker 1: on this Week one schedule that I think Cleveland has
Speaker 1: a shot. The number is forty eight on the total.
Speaker 1: If you like Cleveland to win outright, you get plus
Speaker 1: one to twenty on the money line. That's how I
Speaker 1: would approach this one. To be honest with you, I
Speaker 1: like this Cleveland number on the plus money home dogs
Speaker 1: we always love in Division they've got new weapons like
Speaker 1: Elijah More Nick Chubb's gonna run the hell out of
Speaker 1: the football. Hopefully Watson can continue to bounce back. To me,
Speaker 1: this is the big trap game of the week. How
Speaker 1: do you feel about this one?
Speaker 2: Same here, Joe money line seems like a really good
Speaker 2: play on the Browns to me. And I think this
Speaker 2: would be a reasonable shot to take even if Joe
Speaker 2: Burrow was totally fine and had never gotten hurt and
Speaker 2: had a full preseason or whatever. But with Burrow being
Speaker 2: iffy too, and you're gonna give us that path, like
Speaker 2: if we don't see a sharp Joe Burrow. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I do like this one. I also kind of like
Speaker 2: the under here, Joe. It seems like a really high total.
Speaker 2: We know that Cleveland is Cleveland Browns Stadium can be
Speaker 2: one of the windiest places to play, Like the wind
Speaker 2: can wreak havoc with passing and kicking games. So like
Speaker 2: that total seems pretty tall with whether you know, win
Speaker 2: possibly being a factor and Joe Burrow maybe not being
Speaker 2: one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just it's not that like Joe Burrow can't
Speaker 1: still be good. It's just you haven't played football in
Speaker 1: four weeks right, Like, I'm just kind of throwing that
Speaker 1: out there, and then he's going on the road, and
Speaker 1: there's a lot of things here where I think, if anything,
Speaker 1: Pat I would continue to watch his moneyline number because
Speaker 1: it's sitting a plus one twenty on VP right now.
Speaker 1: And this is why you download the app. We have
Speaker 1: the new redesign. This is how you stay on top
Speaker 1: of all the notivocations of all the lines that move
Speaker 1: when you sink your sports books. This is the glory
Speaker 1: of betting pros. And what we're trying to do here
Speaker 1: is that I think when the Joe Burrows good to go,
Speaker 1: he's cleared. If everything's great, I think this line's gonna
Speaker 1: move a little bit. And I think that plus one
Speaker 1: twenty goes up to plus one thirty or one fifty even,
Speaker 1: and you know when it does, I'm gonna bet it
Speaker 1: there too, because I think that's exactly what's gonna happen
Speaker 1: on the next game here on our list. In week one,
Speaker 1: San Fran goes to Pittsburgh, another home dog FITZI. I'm
Speaker 1: looking at my chops on this one. We still have
Speaker 1: no Nick Boson news as of today. As of us
Speaker 1: recording this now, again, that could change at any moment.
Speaker 1: It seemed that rock Perty is going to get the start.
Speaker 1: They are the Pittsburgh Steelers two and a half point
Speaker 1: underdogs here on DK minus one ten. That's the best
Speaker 1: number you can get right now. Forty one is the
Speaker 1: number sometimes forty one and a half in some other spots.
Speaker 1: But once again, I'm looking at Pittsburgh here as a
Speaker 1: potential upset where San fran Is still trying to kind
Speaker 1: of find its way a little bit. In my opinion,
Speaker 1: I think the Steelers are gonna pull San Francisco down
Speaker 1: to their level, make him play in the mud. They're
Speaker 1: gonna run the football and run the football and run
Speaker 1: the football some more. And I like Pittsburgh to win
Speaker 1: this game out right too.
Speaker 2: I like everything you said, Joe, accept the part about
Speaker 2: San Francis Pittsburgh pulling San Francisco down to their level,
Speaker 2: because I don't think they really have to pull him down.
Speaker 3: Like Pittsburgh went.
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh went seven and two after their bye last week,
Speaker 2: and they ranked six sixth in total DVO way over
Speaker 2: that stretch. They were one of the best teams in
Speaker 2: the league over the second half of the twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two regular season, and we know, you know, Mike Tomlin
Speaker 2: regular season winning percentage of six thirty six in his
Speaker 2: sixteen years as head coach of the Steelers never has
Speaker 2: had a five sub five hundred season. Pittsburgh is a
Speaker 2: really live dog here against a West Coast team coming
Speaker 2: out east, and Pittsburgh has looked great in the preseason,
Speaker 2: like that offense has actually been humming with Kenny Pickett
Speaker 2: and company, and the defense has added some really nice pieces.
Speaker 2: Joe like, I don't get this line. I think they
Speaker 2: should be like a pick them. I think it should
Speaker 2: be a pick. I'm like, huge value. This is my
Speaker 2: favorite favorite play of the week.
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna move either, because you know,
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is a very public team, right, a lot of
Speaker 1: Steeler fans everywhere, So I don't know if there's gonna
Speaker 1: be any momentum switch on this game. All I know
Speaker 1: is it's good enough where it is right now to
Speaker 1: invest in it now and then wait and see and
Speaker 1: maybe you get lucky. You're like, oh, I'm glad I
Speaker 1: did when I did, and maybe it gets even better,
Speaker 1: like I'm saying about the Browns, where I might just
Speaker 1: bet at the second talk, get a better number on it,
Speaker 1: and just stay with the theme. Also, if you're watching
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Speaker 1: Let's get to the next game on our list here. Fitzy,
Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders seven point home favorites. I haven't said
Speaker 1: those words in a long time. I feel like the
Speaker 1: words Washington Commanders and seven point home favorites really just
Speaker 1: never quite come to fruition. But the Arizona Cardinals are
Speaker 1: that bad. Thirty eight and a half is the number
Speaker 1: here on this bad boy, pretty much across the board.
Speaker 1: I do not like Arizona and the upside plus do
Speaker 1: sixty five if anything fitsy. This is kind of a
Speaker 1: stay away from me. Maybe the thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm on the under just because. But again, this game
Speaker 1: just doesn't have all that much appeal to me. Too
Speaker 1: many weird moving parts, and sometimes like the teams that
Speaker 1: aren't great are the hardest when they play each other
Speaker 1: to really make a good wager on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny like Washington Joe, not a team that
Speaker 2: really engenders a great deal of public confidence in you know,
Speaker 2: the last several decades. But is it possible the Commanders
Speaker 2: are going to be like the most popular Survivor pool
Speaker 2: pick this week against the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: The Cardinals are going to be.
Speaker 2: People are just gonna follow the Cardinals around in Survivor
Speaker 2: pools like band groupies this year, Like who are the
Speaker 2: Cardinals playing? I'm picking their opponent, And yeah, I mean
Speaker 2: it's hard to push the button on the Commanders as
Speaker 2: a seven point favorite. I'm pushing the button on the
Speaker 2: Commander's Show, like that the Cardinals don't even want to
Speaker 2: win like they are.
Speaker 3: They are full on tank mode.
Speaker 2: And I'm also pushing the button on the under like
Speaker 2: you've got Josh this Cardinals offense, it's going to be
Speaker 2: so puge, And then you've got Sam Holls, a first
Speaker 2: time starter on the other side of the ball.
Speaker 3: So like, I don't know how this game.
Speaker 1: Even if Washington looks good, right like McLaurin is still
Speaker 1: nowhere near one hundred percent. You know, I love dots
Speaker 1: and dots at anytime touchdown score. I love that. Plus
Speaker 1: money too, you're getting go go find it, go bet it,
Speaker 1: bet it on betting pros, to your sports books. But Washington,
Speaker 1: to me that thirty and a half still like this
Speaker 1: game feels like what twenty one seven to me? Right,
Speaker 1: twenty one ten? Yeah, like that thirty eight and a
Speaker 1: half I think is a very and that would be great.
Speaker 1: Like Washington putting up a couple scores, it's great. We
Speaker 1: love that. Like twenty ten feels like this game thirty
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I know it sounds low, but
Speaker 1: I don't think it's low enough. Tennessee, Quiet Pat, you
Speaker 1: had more of it.
Speaker 2: I was just gonna say, yeah, like you might even
Speaker 2: want to shop for an alternate total and push that
Speaker 2: number down a little bit to get like some plus
Speaker 2: money on it.
Speaker 1: I think to thirty seven and a half, if not
Speaker 1: maybe thirty six and a half to tell you the truth, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think Arizona's gonna be up against it traveling first week.
Speaker 1: I don't think. And plus I imagine, you know, the
Speaker 1: new ownership, feel like that crowd is gonna be excited,
Speaker 1: right you kind of exercising the demons. They're excited to
Speaker 1: see Sam Howell make his big you know, start of
Speaker 1: the season, all that stuff. Here's one that's again tough,
Speaker 1: and this is why Vegas is agreeing the Tennessee Titans
Speaker 1: going traveling to New Orleans even money here on the
Speaker 1: three you're getting three on the Titan side, the plus
Speaker 1: three as underdogs here at Caesars you're getting minus three
Speaker 1: and a half on New Orleans over at MGM. And
Speaker 1: then look pretty much forty one is this number across
Speaker 1: the board if you like Tennessee for the upset, it's
Speaker 1: plus one sixty five on the money line. FITZI, I
Speaker 1: think Vegas has kind of thrown up their hands on
Speaker 1: this one, and I don't blame them. I would lean
Speaker 1: towards New Orleans here, and I would actually lean on
Speaker 1: them to cover just because I still feel like Tennessee
Speaker 1: has a lot of kinks to work out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that might be the case, Joe.
Speaker 2: And if you do like the Saints, I think people
Speaker 2: should try to odd shop on this one since, as
Speaker 2: you just mentioned, like the line does seem like it's
Speaker 2: wavering between three and three and a half. So if
Speaker 2: you like the Saints, look around and get it at three,
Speaker 2: because that's a key number. Obviously, I don't personally like
Speaker 2: the Saints in this one. I'm just, as you mentioned,
Speaker 2: I think this is a complete stay away.
Speaker 3: I'm throwing up my hands.
Speaker 2: I mean, I know the Titans completely collapsed down the
Speaker 2: stretch last season, total collapse fell apart. But Mike vrabel
Speaker 2: is a pretty good coach. I have a lot of
Speaker 2: respect for him and his ability to get the most
Speaker 2: out of his players. So I think they're gonna like
Speaker 2: turn in a plucky performance in the big easy and
Speaker 2: Week one. So I'm just I'm staying away from this one.
Speaker 2: I don't have a good read on any of these
Speaker 2: either of these teams really, especially the Saints.
Speaker 3: I have no idea what to make of the Saints
Speaker 3: this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I look, I think when Amak America comes back
Speaker 1: of a better idea of what to make of the Saints.
Speaker 1: But at this point, right now, I'd still give them
Speaker 1: the advantage being at home. I think that's enough Right
Speaker 1: now is I think Tennessee's still trying to figure out
Speaker 1: their personnel. Another one here, trying to figure out the
Speaker 1: personnel the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We're traveling to Minnesota and fits.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna call this one right here. I know
Speaker 1: they are six point underdogs here in Minnesota. I think
Speaker 1: they should be. I don't think it's enough, I really don't.
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota is going to put a hurtin on
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think they are going to
Speaker 1: struggle with points on the board. I think they're going
Speaker 1: to struggle to move the chains. I think Minnesota is,
Speaker 1: you know, not a great defend I think they're good
Speaker 1: enough to stifle this offense. So the number is forty
Speaker 1: five and a half. What's hard for me on this one, though,
Speaker 1: is Tampa would have to put up enough points for
Speaker 1: me to really get sided about Tampa. I think this
Speaker 1: is a one sided game. I think it's Minnesota, and
Speaker 1: I don't think it's closed. Pat. Do you think I'm wrong?
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think you're wrong, Joe, But I mean
Speaker 2: the Vikings were such a weird case last year, going
Speaker 2: thirteen and four, yet being outscored on the season and
Speaker 2: ranking twenty seventh overall in DVA. Like this was a
Speaker 2: very mediocre team masquerading as a good team last year.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Vikings went eleven to zero in one
Speaker 2: score games, which explains that good record. I can't totally
Speaker 2: bury the Bucks joke because they're a veteran team. I mean,
Speaker 2: obviously the downgrade from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is significant,
Speaker 2: to say the least. But man, I am very Viking
Speaker 2: skeptical this season, so I'm just staying away from this one,
Speaker 2: to be honest.
Speaker 1: Fair enough, fair enough. I like the individual If I
Speaker 1: can get the individual total on Minnesota, I'll take the over.
Speaker 1: Like that's how I feel like. I don't want to
Speaker 1: bet the combined total. I want the individual Minnesota Viking total.
Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with the Bucks because
Speaker 1: they're a hot mess. As far as I'm concerned. Now
Speaker 1: here's one. I know. This was kind of the Darling
Speaker 1: Trap game a couple of weeks ago and a lot
Speaker 1: of people's minds. I don't think it's that anymore. Jonathan
Speaker 1: Taylor's not playing for the Colts. Anthony Richardson is a
Speaker 1: giant work in progress, and I love the kid, I do.
Speaker 1: But Jacksonville, you know, four and a half point road
Speaker 1: favorites in this one. Forty five is the number if
Speaker 1: you like the Colts for the upset at home plus
Speaker 1: one ninety. I would not shock me if the Colts
Speaker 1: won this football game. Right in division games, we know
Speaker 1: they're all chippy. Maybe Jacksonville's overlooking the Colts. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to and historically the Colts
Speaker 1: have struggled against the Jacksonville Jaguars anyway, So as far
Speaker 1: as I'm concerned, the whole notion of the narrative out
Speaker 1: there that the Colts are somehow you know this is
Speaker 1: the dangerous game. I don't think the Colts are danger
Speaker 1: to you.
Speaker 2: No, And the Colts are going to be bad this year, Joe,
Speaker 2: and I think their refusal to negotiate with Jonathan Taylor's
Speaker 2: kind of a tell tale that they're playing the long
Speaker 2: game this year. Like, I don't think they're really in
Speaker 2: it to win it for twenty twenty three. And you know,
Speaker 2: the Jaguars came a long way last year under Doug Peterson.
Speaker 2: But I'm not sure I'm smitten enough with Jacksonville to
Speaker 2: lay four and a half points on the road, and
Speaker 2: this number has even gone up to five in some spots,
Speaker 2: even against a bad team. I just don't know if
Speaker 2: I have that much faith in the Jags. Yes yet,
Speaker 2: But I'll tell you this, Joe, I am hammering the
Speaker 2: under here. Do you remember when now Colts head coach
Speaker 2: Shane Steichen was the Eagles offensive coordinator two years ago,
Speaker 2: when Jalen Hurts was not yet the fully formed Jalen
Speaker 2: Hurts that reak tavoc on the league last season. The
Speaker 2: Eagles went insanely run heavy over the second half of
Speaker 2: that first Jalen Hurts season as a starter. They were
Speaker 2: running the ball in like sixty four percent of their
Speaker 2: offensive snaps over the second half of that season, I think,
Speaker 2: and like, I wouldn't be surprised if they were practically
Speaker 2: running the wishbone in Indianapolis this year and I'm like.
Speaker 1: You're probably right, but I mean, God, how's no offense
Speaker 1: to Evan hole Fits and no offense to Deon Jackson
Speaker 1: whatever's left there. But like, I don't think that's gonna
Speaker 1: get it done either. You put, you're right, it's gonna
Speaker 1: pour ten to the under because they're gonna drink block.
Speaker 3: The passing game isn't getting it done either.
Speaker 2: Like, this offense is just gonna be dysfunctional this year,
Speaker 2: at least until they get jail Jonathan Taylor back, if
Speaker 2: they get Jonathan Taylor back, So I mean seeing a
Speaker 2: total in the mid forties, even if Jacksonville is able
Speaker 2: to put up points. I don't think Indy does its
Speaker 2: share in this game to get this one over the total.
Speaker 1: This next one's an enigma for me. The Miami Dolphins
Speaker 1: and the Chargers. The Chargers are three point home favorites.
Speaker 1: You can get Miami a two and a half though
Speaker 1: on plus two and a half on FanDuel even money.
Speaker 1: Fifty one is the number you're seeing this fifty and
Speaker 1: a half in some other spots for the under, so
Speaker 1: it's pretty close there. Now, look, if you like this game,
Speaker 1: you might as well as go with Miami on the
Speaker 1: plus one forty five to just win outright like that.
Speaker 1: That's my only approach that I can tell you for
Speaker 1: this game, because this is one of the classic four
Speaker 1: outcome games on a schedule that typically I stay away from.
Speaker 1: We don't have Jeffrey Wilson Junior. We're not sure if
Speaker 1: we're going to get devon a chain yet as of
Speaker 1: us recording this. So the run game is suspect. Jalen
Speaker 1: Wattle's health is suspect. But that could even push this
Speaker 1: number higher in the days to come, as there's more uncertainty,
Speaker 1: and it just would probably make me like the Dolphins
Speaker 1: on the upset even more. We know wacky things happen.
Speaker 1: Fits would it's shocky if the Dolphins win out there
Speaker 1: to La and won this football game.
Speaker 2: No, not at all. And if I was going to
Speaker 2: play this, and I am not, I would I would probably.
Speaker 2: I would probably follow you on that one, Joe and
Speaker 2: take the money line. But it sounds like you're not
Speaker 2: even really doing that.
Speaker 1: I just want to go big because I think it's
Speaker 1: going to I think I think the more uncertainty starts
Speaker 1: to creep in over the next days, people are gonna
Speaker 1: get more and more charger, charger, charger, a home, you know, advantage,
Speaker 1: blah blah blah, and then it becomes like the Better
Speaker 1: Paradise where you just say, I have nothing to lose,
Speaker 1: it's all plus money. Let's try.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it seems shameful that we are
Speaker 2: glossing over like one of the most exciting games on
Speaker 2: the week one slate, like people are gonna be hammering
Speaker 2: this game in DFS and you know, like it could
Speaker 2: be a really fun game, but man, I just think
Speaker 2: the lines are too tight here.
Speaker 3: I've no interest in betting it.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a fun DFS game, but fun DFS
Speaker 1: games do not make fun wagering games all the time, right,
Speaker 1: Sometimes the total like if anything, you can also look
Speaker 1: at the total for this one, the fifty and if
Speaker 1: you can get it down to fifty and a half,
Speaker 1: maybe you go that route too. Like that I can
Speaker 1: understand that I could see. But the Jalen wattlehealth and
Speaker 1: no uncertainty too, is like if he should be out
Speaker 1: this game, like you get a last minute thing on him.
Speaker 1: I don't know. This one feels a little off to me.
Speaker 1: I'm going to stay away. The Los Angeles Rams are
Speaker 1: going to travel to Seattle. This is another Indivision matchup.
Speaker 1: The number on this one forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: You can get at forty seven as well. The spread
Speaker 1: varies too. You can get on DraftKings plus four on
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles side, minus four and a half on
Speaker 1: Seattle at Sugar House. You know the Cooper Cup hamstring issue. Now,
Speaker 1: they could be down Cooper Cup for this game potentially,
Speaker 1: or at least not one hundred percent Cooper Cup at
Speaker 1: the very least. This is another one where it feels weird,
Speaker 1: yet Seattle is a pretty strong favorite already. I don't
Speaker 1: know if there's any value left on this game.
Speaker 2: No, And this line has been moving up a little
Speaker 2: too Joe, presumably based on the news that Cooper Cupp
Speaker 2: is looking really iffy for this game, and I kind
Speaker 2: of doubt he plays based on the way he thinks.
Speaker 2: They're going on a hamstring setback like less than ten
Speaker 2: days before the start of the season. Probably not a
Speaker 2: good indicator of a guy who's going to play. The
Speaker 2: Seahawks were a playoff team a year ago, and the
Speaker 2: Rams are going to be one of the four or
Speaker 2: five worst teams in football this year, along with the Cardinals, Texans, Colts,
Speaker 2: and maybe the Raiders. So I'm taking the Seahawks here,
Speaker 2: and I'm you know, like trying to grab it before
Speaker 2: this line gets much higher. And I also kind of
Speaker 2: like the under here, like I don't know what the
Speaker 2: Rams offense looks like if Cooper Cup doesn't play.
Speaker 1: Here's an interesting one too. The New England Patriots are
Speaker 1: going to host the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that I
Speaker 1: am heavily invested in already. Now the number for this game.
Speaker 1: You can get the under at forty four and a
Speaker 1: half on DK at minus one to wait, you can
Speaker 1: get the over at forty five on fandwel those are
Speaker 1: the best numbers currently here going in to the weekend.
Speaker 1: Then you have three and a half basically is the
Speaker 1: number here you're looking at where the Eagles are favored
Speaker 1: on the road. Now, well, New England is an interesting
Speaker 1: home underdog. It's just I don't know if this offense
Speaker 1: can keep up with the Eagles at the end of
Speaker 1: the day. This is another game where it would not
Speaker 1: shock me if the Patriots in classic Week one fashion
Speaker 1: pull off a squeaker. But I just don't think this
Speaker 1: game for me is one I want to invest in.
Speaker 1: How about you? Do you see this one as just
Speaker 1: like is gonna get their butt hands to them. This
Speaker 1: is not like the fans speaking in me. This is
Speaker 1: the week one bet are speaking in me that this
Speaker 1: one again. Sometimes it looks too good to be true.
Speaker 1: Oftentimes it is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is like the Joe piece of p a bow.
Speaker 2: You've been all over No one's been all over the
Speaker 2: Eagles and like the future like you and the Patriots
Speaker 2: are your team.
Speaker 1: So and I'll bet against the Patriots all day long
Speaker 1: when it makes sense. But this one's tough, pat because
Speaker 1: you know, defensively, they're gonna be prepared. It's just what
Speaker 1: are they offensively? And that, to me is the one
Speaker 1: thing like maybe that forty you know, forty four and
Speaker 1: a half, maybe this game is a little less thrilling
Speaker 1: from the offensive side that we realize it becomes more
Speaker 1: of a defensive struggle like that. I could see that
Speaker 1: might be the most appealing approach of this game for me.
Speaker 1: But who's gonna win? This one's a little tricky. I
Speaker 1: could see the Eagles blowing them out, and I could
Speaker 1: see the Patriots, you know, winning on a field goal
Speaker 1: here like at the by one point at the end
Speaker 1: of the game.
Speaker 2: It's very weird this game, right, I mean, it does
Speaker 2: feel like the Eagles are miles better than the Patriots,
Speaker 2: but like.
Speaker 1: Theyring they are miles better.
Speaker 3: Sure, but like I can't.
Speaker 2: Bring myself to bet against Bill Belichick. Is a three
Speaker 2: and a half point home underdog. Like maybe if it
Speaker 2: got to three, I'd be a little bit interested, but
Speaker 2: probably not. I'm just gonna walk away from this one.
Speaker 2: This is just it's a strange game. Like, like you said,
Speaker 2: I could see an Eagles blowout, I could see the
Speaker 2: Patriots winning outright. This one is a hard game to
Speaker 2: get a read on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I love the Eagles. It's just sometimes, you know,
Speaker 1: and I know, like these teams come out a little flat,
Speaker 1: you know, after the Super Bowl loss a little bit,
Speaker 1: and you know you're out there, they're gonna have some
Speaker 1: tricks up their sleeve. I just don't know if New
Speaker 1: Engle can do enough at the end of the day
Speaker 1: to win this game. But I think they're gonna keep
Speaker 1: a close pat I really do. I could be wrong,
Speaker 1: but again, this one scares me a little bit because
Speaker 1: it looks too easy, like Eagles, Like I want to
Speaker 1: take the Eagles every week, and I'm gonna take the
Speaker 1: Eagles most weeks on this show. And it's not because
Speaker 1: they're playing the Patriots. It's because it's Week one. It
Speaker 1: just feels a little bit too good to be true
Speaker 1: for me. Let's go into your wheelhouse now. The green
Speaker 1: Bay Packers Chicago Bear forty three and a half is
Speaker 1: the number pretty much everywhere on this one. You're getting
Speaker 1: the Bears against the Packers. I know this is like
Speaker 1: insulting already one and a half point favorites at home. Currently.
Speaker 1: If you like green Bay to win out round the
Speaker 1: moneyline plus one oh five, and I do, pat I
Speaker 1: still believe green Bay is the better defensive team. I
Speaker 1: think Green Bay as a potential to run this football
Speaker 1: control the clock a little bit. It's just can they
Speaker 1: keep Justin Feels from making one play too many on them?
Speaker 1: That to me is the difference maker in this game.
Speaker 1: How is your approach to this one if at all?
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we get the oldest, most storied rivalry in
Speaker 2: the NFL in Week one. This is in my wheelhouse, Joe.
Speaker 2: I'm in the Chicago area. I'm a naturally Wisconsin Borne
Speaker 2: Packers fan. The line movement in this game has been
Speaker 2: really interesting. Like it, the Bears were favored by two
Speaker 2: and a half points for most of the summer. I
Speaker 2: actually got the Packers at three to one point, and
Speaker 2: I believe June that was way back in June.
Speaker 3: I think they're two key reasons for the line movement.
Speaker 2: One is that the Bears are pretty banged up right
Speaker 2: now in some key areas offensive line. Tevin Jenkins, maybe
Speaker 2: their best offensive lineman, won't play, and they've got some
Speaker 2: other guys who are banged up, and their safeties Eddie
Speaker 2: Jackson and Jakwan Brisker are both hurt and questionable. The
Speaker 2: other factor here, Joe, Like the Packers, the vibes on
Speaker 2: this team and on this offense in particular, have actually
Speaker 2: been really good, surprisingly good considering the inexperience they have
Speaker 2: at quarterback and with their pass catchers. I mean, you've
Speaker 2: got Jordan Love who's been in the league for three
Speaker 2: years now but has only started one game, and you've
Speaker 2: got a pass catching group who you know, unless you
Speaker 2: count backup tight end Josiah Duguaro, which I do not,
Speaker 2: no one has more than one season of an NFL
Speaker 2: experience at either receiver tight end, and yet the Packers
Speaker 2: have looked really good in the preseason, like this offense
Speaker 2: has kind of been humming, so really strange. I'm not
Speaker 2: interested in betting the lineup at where it is now.
Speaker 2: Happy to have gotten the Packers earlier, but you know
Speaker 2: that ship has sailed the three points. You're not getting
Speaker 2: that anymore. I don't see enough value at plus one
Speaker 2: for me to take Green Bay. But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm kind of with you, though. I think this was
Speaker 2: like a weird line to open that. You know, the
Speaker 2: Packers just a little bit more pedigree, even though I
Speaker 2: think people think these teams are going in opposite directions.
Speaker 1: Well, the next game on it. Look, we got three
Speaker 1: games left. The next game I want nothing to do with.
Speaker 1: It's Denver hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. They are four
Speaker 1: point underdogs going into Denver. Maybe they should be more,
Speaker 1: maybe not. I don't know Jacobs is going to be
Speaker 1: back for this one. You have Garoppolo at least here
Speaker 1: for week one. Theoretically the numbers forty four and a half,
Speaker 1: sometimes forty four you can get in some other spots.
Speaker 1: I don't like Las Vegas for the outright win, but
Speaker 1: at the same time, my confidence is not strong in Denver,
Speaker 1: so this game is a hard pass for me.
Speaker 2: Pat, how about you, I'm betting the Bronx Coast Joe, Like, yeah,
Speaker 2: four and a half.
Speaker 3: I'm laying the points.
Speaker 2: And like, I believe in the Denver defense, which was
Speaker 2: like really sneaky good last year tenth overall in DVOA
Speaker 2: and they've got one of the best cover corners in
Speaker 2: the league.
Speaker 3: And Patrick Certan Junior.
Speaker 2: I don't believe in the Raiders and Josh McDaniels like
Speaker 2: at all. I mean, I think Sean Payton is clearly
Speaker 2: the better man here. So yeah, I'm willing to lay
Speaker 2: the points with Denver at home against a hated rival.
Speaker 1: Speaking of rivals, about the Giants on Sunday Night Football
Speaker 1: hosting the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys three and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites going the Giants of the home dogs
Speaker 1: yet again here, and I think rightfully so I think
Speaker 1: Dallas is the better football team on paper, absolutely, I
Speaker 1: know both teams were in the playoffs. Anyway, Forty six
Speaker 1: and a half is the number here if you like
Speaker 1: the Giants to win on the money line, a plus
Speaker 1: one forty five and get that number over on points
Speaker 1: bet right now, that's the best one. So pat again,
Speaker 1: I kind of come to this one and I say,
Speaker 1: division rival game, strange things happen home dogs. It makes
Speaker 1: me push towards the Giants side of this one. But
Speaker 1: I have yet to make a wager in this one.
Speaker 1: So do you have any feelings on this game here
Speaker 1: that can sway me one way or another, because I
Speaker 1: always like those home dogs, But I don't know if
Speaker 1: the Giants are in the same space as the Cowboys.
Speaker 2: Defensively, I'm in the same space you are in, Joe,
Speaker 2: Like I am leaning towards the home dog. I love
Speaker 2: me a good home dog in week one, and certainly
Speaker 2: the Giants are kind of a live dog here, Like
Speaker 2: this is a good team to be a home dog,
Speaker 2: but it's a stay away for me. Really intriguing matchup.
Speaker 2: But I do think the Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Speaker 2: I just can't lay the points though, And I can't
Speaker 2: lay the points. Not gonna take the points either.
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football nine to eleven, right, so they're gonna
Speaker 1: be doing ceremonies there in New York. First game in
Speaker 1: this building for Aaron Rodgers to play quarterback for the
Speaker 1: New York Jets. They're playing the Buffalo Bills, another team
Speaker 1: from the state of New York. This game has so
Speaker 1: much emotion running through it, Pat, It's going to be
Speaker 1: a wild night. It's gonna be great television. I think.
Speaker 1: I think this is going to do a smash rating.
Speaker 1: I really do. And at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: if you're looking at the number, the Jets are two
Speaker 1: point home dogs minus one to ten on that number
Speaker 1: forty six and a half forty six, you're getting this
Speaker 1: number the total different spots if you like the Jets,
Speaker 1: just for the outright win here at home with all
Speaker 1: the good vibes, plus one twenty five. I was on
Speaker 1: sports grid TV yesterday talking about this game, Pat, and
Speaker 1: they asked him to give me a question about this game,
Speaker 1: and they said, what will you take away? What's the
Speaker 1: big takeaway from this game? You know the next morning,
Speaker 1: And I said, anything that happens is temporary. If the
Speaker 1: Jets win this game, it doesn't mean anything necessary. It
Speaker 1: means the emotion of the night carried in this incredible
Speaker 1: crowd that will be very hyped up. If they lose
Speaker 1: this game, it doesn't mean they're not good enough to
Speaker 1: compete with the Buffalo Bills. So I'm not everybody's gonna
Speaker 1: put way too much into this game. I'm gonna put
Speaker 1: almost nothing into it because I think there's just so
Speaker 1: much surrounding this game. Monday Night Football Isolated game Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 1: Prime Time, nine to eleven in New York. I don't know, Pat,
Speaker 1: how do you look at this one? Because this is
Speaker 1: one where I just want to watch it on TV.
Speaker 1: But from an investment standpoint, Garrett Wilson anytime touchdown scorer
Speaker 1: over unreceiving yards, that's the stuff I'm looking for. Outside
Speaker 1: of that, maybe some James Cook numbers. I like the
Speaker 1: individuals more than the game itself.
Speaker 2: J E Ts jests Jets jests, Joe Like, I actually
Speaker 2: like the Jets here a lot.
Speaker 4: I really, do you know? I said I like a
Speaker 4: good home dog in Week one. This is a home
Speaker 4: dog I love. And that Jets defense is potentially special,
Speaker 4: very good. Like they they can generate pressure without blitzing
Speaker 4: their past coverage in the secondary, led by second year
Speaker 4: corner Sauce Gardner, is going to be fantastic. The Bills
Speaker 4: have a lot of offensive firepower, but I think they're
Speaker 4: gonna have a hard time moving against the ball against
Speaker 4: this defense, as will every other team that plays the
Speaker 4: Jets this year.
Speaker 2: And I'm also smashing the under here, Joe, Like the
Speaker 2: Jets great defense and they have a bad offensive line,
Speaker 2: Like that is a winning under combo, I think, especially
Speaker 2: with the total at what forty six right now?
Speaker 1: Yeah, forty six and a half, some spots having a
Speaker 1: forty six flat, So it depends on man if.
Speaker 2: Forty six and a half sounds really good right now?
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think this game is going to be
Speaker 2: played like both teams scoring in the teams I could see.
Speaker 2: I could see like a nineteen seventeen type of game here.
Speaker 1: Oly, I gotta tell you, like, I just think it's
Speaker 1: gonna be so much running through everybody's veins in this game.
Speaker 1: The if anything, Pat, you know what I might do.
Speaker 1: I might look for the first quarter no score, where
Speaker 1: it's just everything is just everybody is so hyped, right,
Speaker 1: Everyone's just like just absolutely brimming, like whatever the first
Speaker 1: quarter numbers are, I might attack that, or maybe the
Speaker 1: first half numbers. I think maybe I isolate this one
Speaker 1: a little bit. I think there's just gonna be so
Speaker 1: much pomp and circumstance, so much attention, and I think
Speaker 1: there's gonna be nerves. And look, let's not pretend like
Speaker 1: all of a sudden Aaron Rodgers answered the bell every
Speaker 1: time at one of these big spots in his career,
Speaker 1: because he hasn't. He hasn't necessarily answered the bell every
Speaker 1: single time in these especially lately. So this is you know,
Speaker 1: hard knocks is over now, now the hard work begins.
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Speaker 1: so good to talk about these games. Fits we are back,
Speaker 1: let's go, it's football time. That'll do it for us.
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Pat
Speaker 1: fitz Morris, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,
Speaker 1: M